November 21, 2025 • 20 mins
Gregg Rosenthal and NFL Network's Cynthia Frelund drop their picks for Week 12! Confidence is high and they plan on going 3-0 with their picks this week. Do you think they can do it? They talk Carolina Panthers vs. San Francisco 49ers (01:25), Atlanta Falcons vs. New Orleans Saints (04:31), Seattle Seahawks vs. Tennessee Titans (07:20), Cleveland Browns vs. Las Vegas Raiders (09:21), Minnesota Vikings vs. Green Bay Packers (12:51), New York Giants vs. Detroit Lions (16:17), and Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Chicago Bears (17:10).
Note: time codes approximate.
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Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:02):
Welcome to NFL Daily, where we don't believe in jinxing
a winning streak. I'm Greg Rosenthal, and I'm here in
the Chris Westleyan podcast studio with my friend Cynthia Freelan,
who has beaten me like a drum on our NFL
Network show game debut. But I mentioned that streak up
top because I'm gonna I'm gonna wear it. This is
the week where I'm just gonna say it like I'm
(00:23):
on a seven week winning streak here here in this
studio picking against the spread.
Speaker 2 (00:29):
Look at us, it's a perfect calendrome.
Speaker 1 (00:32):
You're struggling right now on this show. You're crushing me
on the others. But I went three and oh last week,
and that brings my seven week streak all winning up
to sixteen and five overall.
Speaker 3 (00:44):
After you.
Speaker 1 (00:45):
So I'm feeling great, and you would think usually when
you get some picks right, you're feeling confident. It's like
the basket looks bigger, you know what I mean, when
you're shooting correct playing basketball. And then I looked at
the slate and the games aren't speaking to me in
the way that they normally did. In the end, I
wrote down five that I like ish, but they weren't
speaking to me like they normally do fair and because
(01:05):
of that, I'm going to give you the first pickure.
Speaker 2 (01:07):
Oh perfect, Well, that's nice of you, because all right,
so I kind of hate this one.
Speaker 3 (01:12):
But I don't hate it if you're going first with it.
Speaker 2 (01:15):
No, I hate the whole Okay, the whole week. So
I hate it one of the least about that. It's
the least hate of the hate. So there we go.
I think that on Monday Night football, the San Francisco
forty nine Ers win by a touchdown.
Speaker 1 (01:27):
That's one of the ones I like more than a
touch I think. I think it's right at seven. Yeah, yeah,
I do like that one. I didn't write it down,
but that actually was one of the few that was like,
they're almost begging you to take the Panthers.
Speaker 2 (01:38):
They're they're like pleading with you take the Panthers. But no, no, no,
it's it's uh. I think that's why the only reason
I feel good, But number one, the Niners are at home.
That always helps, you know, with some Carolina has baffling stats.
Sometimes they're great, sometimes they're not great. But the thing
that I really was interested most in was how how
(02:00):
Bryce Young was so effective, Like what were the conditions
under which he operated? And can the Niners get rid
of those conditions? Like can they stop those conditions? And
the thing that the Niners are very good at, even
without Fred Warner is stopping runs when opposing offenses use
eleven personnels. So Carolina, they've been really effective out rushing
(02:21):
out of eleven personnel. So three wide receiver sets, that's
where rico'dadle has like six yards per carry, like some
crazy number. But the Niners, even without Fred Warner, they're
still good at stopping that. So to me, I was like,
all right, I feel I must day I feel better
about that.
Speaker 1 (02:36):
And it's been interesting in the last couple of weeks,
Dowdle's yardage, at least on the ground yep, has gone
way down yep. And if you make Bryce Young one dimensional,
he could light you up for four hundred yards plus
like he did last week.
Speaker 3 (02:51):
But that's happened like once all year. I don't expect
that to app.
Speaker 2 (02:53):
I think there's some crazy stat out there that in
games after it doesn't have it's like too small to
be a real, like relevant one, but it's a fun
one to tell. Your friends in games. After he's throwing
three touchdowns, he's not thrown more than one touchdown in
the next game. It's a it's a minuscule, but it's
still fun. You know, Monday night football, if your family
like mine, is coming early, you need weird stats to
talk about it in case things get Thanksgiving Monday.
Speaker 3 (03:17):
Yeah, okay, same.
Speaker 1 (03:18):
I will be picking my parents up at the airport
right as the game starts. Tricky because we go live
on YouTube after the game, so I will have to
have that game up, be listening on the radio and.
Speaker 2 (03:30):
Like a list of a there's an uber and you know,
like my parents.
Speaker 3 (03:33):
Are in their eighties.
Speaker 2 (03:34):
I just feel like I got I got a guy
who did he did he did. He's a good he's
very reliable.
Speaker 3 (03:40):
We'll talk off here. He's great, Okay.
Speaker 1 (03:44):
I also think the forty nine ers have like a
a better than people think chance of having one of
the best offenses in down the stretch. So that that's
my main reason is I trust their offense. I do
not trust the Panthers defense at all, which has actually
been playing worse lately. So I like that pick by you.
Oh I was considering. I appreciate that Okay. So, like
I was saying, I don't have any moth and no
(04:05):
computer model, I just kinda I wait till Thursday morning.
Speaker 2 (04:09):
Yeah.
Speaker 1 (04:09):
And then I look at the lines and I see like, oh,
which ones just seem which ones speak to me?
Speaker 3 (04:14):
Yeah?
Speaker 1 (04:14):
Which is like, oh, okay, that's a team I'm higher on.
The continens it's a team I'm lower on. And almost
nothing really spoke to me in a loud voice, but
there was there was one chirping voice that was annoying
to me because I don't want to do this, and
that was from a game down in New Orleans.
Speaker 2 (04:31):
Oh, I like this one too.
Speaker 1 (04:33):
I don't know, is it the same side because it's
for the it's for the underdogs.
Speaker 3 (04:37):
I hate going against the Saints.
Speaker 1 (04:38):
Same But this game is so irrelevant to everyone except
for the employees of the New Orleans Saints and the
Atlanta Falcons and the fans because it's as good a
rivalry as there is that I don't think there's gonna
be a lot of national betting on this game.
Speaker 3 (04:54):
And yet I looked at this and.
Speaker 1 (04:56):
I thought, in what world are the Falcons not a
significantly better team than the Saints And they're underdogs by
two and a half, and I get Kirk Cousins is starting.
I do think that's bad, but not as bad as
it could be because Michael Pennox is up and down
and then Drake London is out, which is which is
quite bad. But ultimately I just think they're a better
(05:20):
overall unit and their defense is the best overall group
in this game.
Speaker 2 (05:24):
Yeah, this is a team that blitz is a ton
second highest blitz rate in the NFL. And you know
what happens when you look at Tyler Schuck against the blitz.
It doesn't go well. So I'm with you on that.
I also think, you know, this is my only like
and I'm I'm actually aligned with you on Atlanta winning
straight up. So I'm looking at this one and I'm like,
does this mean all the fantasy people that I work
(05:45):
with there it is. It's the Kyle Pitts game. Co
It's Coyle Poots, Coile Poots. So you're just gonna keep
and it's all fantasy pundits will say it, and it
might be, but good lord, we've been we've been really like,
stop trying to make Kyle Pitts.
Speaker 1 (06:00):
It's not gonna happen. At the beginning of the season,
it felt like it was happening. I thought he is
a better NFL player than he used to be. He
is up to forty seven receptions on the season, under
ten yards per catch with one touchdown. So not a
great fantasy season could be.
Speaker 2 (06:16):
With Darnel Mooney instead, just your favor Stop trying to
play this game of Stop trying to make fetch happen.
Speaker 1 (06:22):
You know, Ulane Grad returning to the Superdome, not that
they played with Superdome by the time he was playing there.
Speaker 2 (06:27):
It doesn't matter.
Speaker 3 (06:28):
Back when I was a student, that's where That's where
we played.
Speaker 2 (06:31):
God, that's pretty cool for you.
Speaker 3 (06:33):
Yes, and no, it was empty.
Speaker 1 (06:35):
You know, there were not many people showing up to
those games in a huge stadium.
Speaker 2 (06:39):
Green wave, you know, but didn't come. Didn't show you.
Speaker 1 (06:42):
Might be playing the college football players. But I feel
great about that, I really do. I think Shucks succeeded
so far by being really great in improvising and like
showing his athleticism. A little surprising that that's how he's winning. Yeah,
and maybe he'll continue to do that. But I just
think the Falcons defense Jalen Walker's playing better is the
(07:03):
real deal, and they will get it done on the
road and.
Speaker 3 (07:06):
Sweep that series this season. Okay, your second pick.
Speaker 2 (07:13):
Okay, so I'm just gonna I'm gonna I'm gonna go
with this one. Why not. I don't think Seattle wins
by more than thirteen and any whoa why slow it down?
Slow down the dang game. I don't necessarily think I
think that they win handily, but the interior, the center's
on ir Gray's abels. He playing left guard, I don't
(07:36):
know right, so he got injured as well. I just
think that this is a team that has there's a
ton of deep balls. We know Sam Darnold, he's gonna
throw the deep ball God, and they're good against it.
But here's the thing. I just think they slow the
pace down in this matchup just enough to not just
a little bit of pace.
Speaker 3 (07:56):
A little bit. See.
Speaker 1 (07:56):
I wish I'd led with my Seattle minus thirteen and
a half because now it feels like I'm going again.
Speaker 2 (08:00):
You can go against me.
Speaker 1 (08:01):
That was kind of my top pick, and it wasn't
much more complicated than this is the best defense in
the league, I believe, by a decent amount efficiency. Yzv
DVOA would would support that. It is the worst team
in the league. I think if I had to choose one,
maybe the worst offense in the league. And they've shown
(08:25):
that they can win games, you know, going away. They've
had they've had some blowouts and they're a wagon. Can
I talk you off of it or no? I mean
I really that was the one that was actually my
number one pick. I don't know why I started talking
about the fuck.
Speaker 2 (08:39):
I'd rather be more fun and cheer for fun.
Speaker 3 (08:43):
So let's let's go.
Speaker 2 (08:44):
I'll go with you on this side because you know,
I mean, who cares what that's like like, I don't know.
I'd rather root for more than less in the situation.
Speaker 1 (08:50):
Wait, so you're you're getting off flip. You're flipping the
whole pick. Now, that's that's crazy to more than thirteen
and a half. Yeah, now you're on the Seattle.
Speaker 2 (09:00):
Side, right, we'll flip it.
Speaker 1 (09:03):
Well, I just wanted you to get off it because
I felt bad about it. But I want to give it.
I want to you know what, I'm going to get
off it. Now.
Speaker 3 (09:09):
You stay you stay with.
Speaker 2 (09:10):
You all right, I'll stay with it, but no, crazy,
you can you can be on it too. It's totally fine.
Speaker 1 (09:14):
Okay, I'm going to go. Man, these games this week
are crazy. I'm going to go with Cleveland plus three
and a half. That was another one spoke to me.
I know Shadar Sanders is starting. That adds an element
of craziness to all the coverage, and it adds a
little bit of uncertainty to what happens in the game.
(09:35):
Is there a chance he's significantly worse than Dylan Gabriel?
I guess so, But Dylan Gabriel was performing about at
a you know, thirty first thirty second quarterback in the
league level? Should earth Sanders is going to have an
entire week to prepare. They're going to, you know, make
the game plan around Quinnchow Juggins and it's a favorable
(09:56):
matchup overall against the Raiders.
Speaker 2 (09:58):
And uh are Gino? I mean you're abandoning Gino at
the holidays?
Speaker 3 (10:04):
Yes?
Speaker 2 (10:05):
Oh, I mean Thanksgiving and your he could still.
Speaker 3 (10:07):
Win the game. I'd be fine. I'd be fine if
he won.
Speaker 1 (10:10):
Yeah, and the Browns covered three and a half. But
the hook, the hook got me here. I believe in
this defense. I watched this defense every week and I'm
so impressed how freaking hard they play. I just gave
it Alex Right a contract extension. It's a relatively unknown
defensive end who got thirty three million dollars. So on
the other side of Myles Garrett, it's not just Miles Garrett.
(10:31):
He's incredible. Schwessinger is incredible. The secondary or got some
player is.
Speaker 2 (10:36):
Tough, Carson Schwessinger.
Speaker 1 (10:38):
It's by far the best thing in this game is
u is the Browns in their defense.
Speaker 2 (10:44):
Couldn't agree more. But there's another side of me that's like, Okay,
everything is going just a rye. For the your car
breaks down, it's Gino Smith's fault. Yes, like like these
are the types of moments where Gino kind of gets
his muster. And here's the one stat I can point
to for why I only think it's by two points.
(11:05):
So I'm on the same side as you. Okay, good,
But ultimately I do think the Raiders can pull this
one out because Gino against Man, which the Browns play
the most Man, He's only had two of his thirteen
interceptions against Man. Not bad, right, much better than the
zone situation where there's been eleven. Okay, it's just I
think this is where there may be, isn't a ton
(11:27):
of an identity for this Raiders offense. When you think
of Raiders offensive than like the players' names, what do
you think of them doing? It's hard to know, right.
Speaker 1 (11:34):
Failing that's what I thinks. Tough to watch that team
was have to watch lifeless the other night. They made
the Dallas Cowboys defense look like the old doomsday Dallas
defense of the Tom Landry era for our older listeners.
Speaker 3 (11:50):
Not that I was old enough to watch.
Speaker 2 (11:51):
That, say she watched the black and white.
Speaker 1 (11:54):
I'm just saying I'm a student of history. They had
color back in the seventies. They made them look incredible.
They're totally lifeless. Both these teams are, frankly, but here's
a stat that you won't find in your model. Kevin
Stefanski is one to zero in a The loser of
this game might get fired Bowl games this year beating
(12:16):
Mike McDaniel and the Dolphins. Now McDaniel didn't get fired
in the end, but the Browns came through with a
thirty one to six victory in that game, where I
kind of feel like, maybe the loser of this game
is it is in trouble either way.
Speaker 3 (12:27):
I think they're both in I think they're both in
deep trouble, just.
Speaker 2 (12:30):
A matter of when.
Speaker 1 (12:31):
But yeah, man, three and a half points is a
lot to give the Las Vegas Raiders in the year
twenty twenty five. So I feel totally kosher with that
as my second with you on that. Okay, your third pick, Okay.
Speaker 2 (12:46):
All right, Do I have to pick green Bay?
Speaker 3 (12:53):
Sure, that's fine.
Speaker 2 (12:54):
Just feels like a better green Bay against Minnesota. I
don't love divisional matchups because weird things happen, blah blah blah.
But it's a tasty little number. Six and a half Yeah,
just means a touchdown. And I think I don't care
who is the running back in this one. You can
run on the Vikings big time. You can run big time.
(13:15):
And Jordan Love good against the Blitz, and I don't
know what happens to JJ McCarthy, Like I love splits
that are like during the time that it's scripted, he's good,
and then the rest of the game he's not so good.
So I'm gonna I think I'll go.
Speaker 1 (13:27):
But in two minute situations when they need a touchdown
at the end of the game, he's been pretty good.
Speaker 2 (13:31):
That's how you bust them. That's how you bust the spread.
But whatever, I just don't think in this match. I
just think that the talk about a unit that is
severely like very much better than the rest. It's to
me the Packers defense, big time is the best unit
in this whole thing.
Speaker 1 (13:46):
I agree with you there, and I think they're coming on.
And I think the Packers look, these two opponents are
somewhat familiar. I think that helps in these Brian Flores matchups.
For the most part, he their defense hasn't been as
good overall in these division games, certainly not against the Lions,
but you know that the Packers Vikings.
Speaker 3 (14:08):
They've been up the Lions each I know.
Speaker 1 (14:10):
But I'm just saying, like over the course of the
Bryan the b Flow history and all, I love the
way Jordan's Love played last week. Ultimately, this Vikings season
feels like, you know, you can't measure this in your model,
but just the vibes are our vibes are way back
and it's a lot of pressure waves going down. And uh,
(14:34):
I'm with you on nine.
Speaker 2 (14:35):
Nine needs to muster up the strength of the universe.
Speaker 1 (14:39):
I'm torn here because I really do like that Seattle
minus they're get let's go together.
Speaker 3 (14:43):
But you, you were on the other side. You can't
just flip sides.
Speaker 2 (14:46):
Flip sides. That's basically to be with you, because I
know it's not because I'd rather root for.
Speaker 1 (14:51):
Fun, Okay, in fun being the two of us just
looking for a big fat.
Speaker 2 (14:55):
Blow yes on Sunday. Yeah, we want just hoping that
cam Ward spread. That's not fun. Okay, So want to
be fun. Okay, I choose fun every time. Officially, that
will be my third pick.
Speaker 1 (15:07):
So my picks are Atlanta plus two and a half,
Cleveland plus three and a half, and then the Seahawks minus.
Speaker 2 (15:16):
What a sexy slate we just picked there?
Speaker 1 (15:18):
I know, and you had you had the Packers as
your pick, and and you were starting out with the
Niners covering the seven, and you're with me on the Seahawks.
Just one more thing on the Seahawks, and I do
I'm going to throw out an extra pick for this
one too. Is there is something to me about not
just the best team in the league, but the best
(15:38):
team in league coming off a loss. I just think
like this time of the year, every game is so important,
but it really does feel like good teams respond to losses.
I don't think this is a game that they are
going to take lightly. And I just really like they
are probably my I know they're behind in the division, but.
Speaker 2 (15:58):
I don't care. I'm with you.
Speaker 3 (15:59):
I just think I think they might win the Super Bowl.
I think they would be my pick right now.
Speaker 2 (16:04):
Can I tell you there's a team we missed then
based on your theory, a good team coming off a loss.
I'm not gonna pick them because I never pick my
team every I can't do it. But I think that
those frisky little kiddies, Okay, I think that's a I
understand that maybe Jackson Dart plays blah blah blah. You
got the books, Okay, I don't care.
Speaker 3 (16:27):
I don't really either. I'm you Run. I'm on that
side too.
Speaker 2 (16:30):
Yes, I will always pick on the Giants defense in
the run game until they stop it. I'm literally they
do my homework for me every week. Also prove they
can do anything against run. Now, you got to do
it against Jamior Gibbs and David Montgomery. Yes, and now
Jamison Williams sometimes running the football.
Speaker 1 (16:45):
And they've been great coming off a loss in general
this year, rre and it's Jared goff coming back to
do you want to make that your third pick instead
of Sea.
Speaker 2 (16:53):
Let's say I will never pick my team. Okay, I can't.
It's just I have too much my heart is in
it's there's too much in there.
Speaker 3 (16:59):
I'm on the same side to you on that one too.
Speaker 1 (17:01):
And I think, just Jared Gofflake returning to the friendly
confines of a dome and everyone chanting his name and
loving him, he'll do great. But my extra pick here
is actually Pittsburgh plus two and a half. Oh, I
don't care about who plays same quarterback. I think the
Bears are a little overpriced in the market.
Speaker 3 (17:21):
No, I just was this one. I was surprised.
Speaker 1 (17:24):
I was like, Okay, I do think the what are
you saying, phony fakes?
Speaker 3 (17:29):
Wow?
Speaker 2 (17:31):
I'm not saying they're phony or fakes. I'm saying that
they're right now in Seoul. They are number one in
the NFC North.
Speaker 1 (17:37):
Yes, they're twenty fifth inefficiency according to d v A,
largely because of a really poor defense.
Speaker 3 (17:43):
It's a bad defense.
Speaker 2 (17:44):
This is only dv Anyways, I'm just kidding. I'm just kidding.
I like dv IT. Some of the other ones I don't,
But I like that one. Ultimately, I'm looking at this
and I'm saying, you've got six games coming up against
last year's playoff teams. You get through some of those,
then I'll have a little more belief. Because your quarterback
right now, he has a sub sixty completion percentage that
(18:07):
is not easy to overcome. I don't care who you are.
So that is where I'm like, Okay, in terms of
making the playoffs, yes, but hosting a home playoff game
that feels like a bridge too far. I don't have
them making the playoffs to be fair, but I have
them on and as the eight seed, just on the
outside looking at I just think, think about the Packers defense,
and then think about what you think about Like, think
about what you think about the Packers, and then what
(18:27):
you think of the Bears. Even if you're not a
Lions fan like me, think about you think about the Lions,
and then what you think about It's just not they're
not there. It's and by the way, that's okay, yes,
don't Maybe it's better see Dablecama, Brian. What happens when
you make the playoffs a little too soon before your
team has caught up to your wins based on that
fourth place schedule, getting you into a much like it's
(18:48):
gonna be okay, chill.
Speaker 1 (18:51):
I think this is the swing game for their whole
season because the schedule, it's brutal after this certainly a
winnable game, whether it's Mason Rudolph or more likely Aaron Rodgers,
although I don't think Rudolph is going to be a
big negative. But I see the Bears left tackle situation,
which already wasn't great and now that they have an
injury there, and I do trust in some of the
changes that the Steelers defense has made.
Speaker 3 (19:12):
Overall.
Speaker 1 (19:13):
I think their defense is the most trustworthy group in
this game, and they can get heavy on the other
side of the ball, and I think run it on
the Bears, which I just do not trust that Bears
defense at all. And I think the Bears offense is
going to have to be so clean to win week
after week. So I like the Steelers in the scheme,
but that's a that's a bonus pick. My three will
be the falcons of the Browns and the Seahawks. All Right,
(19:36):
we're gonna nail this one. We're gonna nail it.
Speaker 3 (19:38):
We did it. You know what else?
Speaker 2 (19:39):
No that's what I'm that smells like six and oh.
Speaker 1 (19:42):
You know what else we nailed is the most recent
addition to the NFL Daily family. I have not mentioned
this on the show before, is that our friend Ali Connelly,
who I've worked with that talk sport, who has a substack,
the read optional, is going to come on board and
do a show with us weekly, and we're gonna start
doing it on Saturdays. It says in the title NFL Daily,
(20:04):
I'm adding more shows to the mixed, Cynthia.
Speaker 2 (20:07):
You can definitely afford to get your parents a driver
from the airport with all these extra shows.
Speaker 1 (20:11):
Well, they don't pay me per show, Unfortunately, I wish
they did. But I'm doing fine. I'm not that I'm
not complaining about. I love all of our partners.
Speaker 2 (20:20):
Are you ever going to not work? My goodness.
Speaker 1 (20:23):
I mentioned all that because that's the next show in
the feed. I'm no longer throwing it to Sunday Night football.
You're gonna hear Ali and I overnight. We will drop
it East Coast time into the feed and.
Speaker 2 (20:36):
We're going time East Coast time, so I can be ready.
Speaker 3 (20:38):
You know, it'll be up by the time you wake up. Okay,
you're good, Oh, you're good.
Speaker 1 (20:42):
Got it, got it, And that'll be up on Saturdays
moving forward, so really looking forward to that.
Speaker 3 (20:48):
Until then, we're both going three and O this week
Speaker 2 (20:51):
We're both going three No
Welcome to NFL Daily, where we don't believe in jinxing
a winning streak. I'm Greg Rosenthal, and I'm here in
the Chris Westleyan podcast studio with my friend Cynthia Freelan,
who has beaten me like a drum on our NFL
Network show game debut. But I mentioned that streak up
top because I'm gonna I'm gonna wear it. This is
the week where I'm just gonna say it like I'm
(00:23):
on a seven week winning streak here here in this
studio picking against the spread.
Speaker 2 (00:29):
Look at us, it's a perfect calendrome.
Speaker 1 (00:32):
You're struggling right now on this show. You're crushing me
on the others. But I went three and oh last week,
and that brings my seven week streak all winning up
to sixteen and five overall.
Speaker 3 (00:44):
After you.
Speaker 1 (00:45):
So I'm feeling great, and you would think usually when
you get some picks right, you're feeling confident. It's like
the basket looks bigger, you know what I mean, when
you're shooting correct playing basketball. And then I looked at
the slate and the games aren't speaking to me in
the way that they normally did. In the end, I
wrote down five that I like ish, but they weren't
speaking to me like they normally do fair and because
(01:05):
of that, I'm going to give you the first pickure.
Speaker 2 (01:07):
Oh perfect, Well, that's nice of you, because all right,
so I kind of hate this one.
Speaker 3 (01:12):
But I don't hate it if you're going first with it.
Speaker 2 (01:15):
No, I hate the whole Okay, the whole week. So
I hate it one of the least about that. It's
the least hate of the hate. So there we go.
I think that on Monday Night football, the San Francisco
forty nine Ers win by a touchdown.
Speaker 1 (01:27):
That's one of the ones I like more than a
touch I think. I think it's right at seven. Yeah, yeah,
I do like that one. I didn't write it down,
but that actually was one of the few that was like,
they're almost begging you to take the Panthers.
Speaker 2 (01:38):
They're they're like pleading with you take the Panthers. But no, no, no,
it's it's uh. I think that's why the only reason
I feel good, But number one, the Niners are at home.
That always helps, you know, with some Carolina has baffling stats.
Sometimes they're great, sometimes they're not great. But the thing
that I really was interested most in was how how
(02:00):
Bryce Young was so effective, Like what were the conditions
under which he operated? And can the Niners get rid
of those conditions? Like can they stop those conditions? And
the thing that the Niners are very good at, even
without Fred Warner is stopping runs when opposing offenses use
eleven personnels. So Carolina, they've been really effective out rushing
(02:21):
out of eleven personnel. So three wide receiver sets, that's
where rico'dadle has like six yards per carry, like some
crazy number. But the Niners, even without Fred Warner, they're
still good at stopping that. So to me, I was like,
all right, I feel I must day I feel better
about that.
Speaker 1 (02:36):
And it's been interesting in the last couple of weeks,
Dowdle's yardage, at least on the ground yep, has gone
way down yep. And if you make Bryce Young one dimensional,
he could light you up for four hundred yards plus
like he did last week.
Speaker 3 (02:51):
But that's happened like once all year. I don't expect
that to app.
Speaker 2 (02:53):
I think there's some crazy stat out there that in
games after it doesn't have it's like too small to
be a real, like relevant one, but it's a fun
one to tell. Your friends in games. After he's throwing
three touchdowns, he's not thrown more than one touchdown in
the next game. It's a it's a minuscule, but it's
still fun. You know, Monday night football, if your family
like mine, is coming early, you need weird stats to
talk about it in case things get Thanksgiving Monday.
Speaker 3 (03:17):
Yeah, okay, same.
Speaker 1 (03:18):
I will be picking my parents up at the airport
right as the game starts. Tricky because we go live
on YouTube after the game, so I will have to
have that game up, be listening on the radio and.
Speaker 2 (03:30):
Like a list of a there's an uber and you know,
like my parents.
Speaker 3 (03:33):
Are in their eighties.
Speaker 2 (03:34):
I just feel like I got I got a guy
who did he did he did. He's a good he's
very reliable.
Speaker 3 (03:40):
We'll talk off here. He's great, Okay.
Speaker 1 (03:44):
I also think the forty nine ers have like a
a better than people think chance of having one of
the best offenses in down the stretch. So that that's
my main reason is I trust their offense. I do
not trust the Panthers defense at all, which has actually
been playing worse lately. So I like that pick by you.
Oh I was considering. I appreciate that Okay. So, like
I was saying, I don't have any moth and no
(04:05):
computer model, I just kinda I wait till Thursday morning.
Speaker 2 (04:09):
Yeah.
Speaker 1 (04:09):
And then I look at the lines and I see like, oh,
which ones just seem which ones speak to me?
Speaker 3 (04:14):
Yeah?
Speaker 1 (04:14):
Which is like, oh, okay, that's a team I'm higher on.
The continens it's a team I'm lower on. And almost
nothing really spoke to me in a loud voice, but
there was there was one chirping voice that was annoying
to me because I don't want to do this, and
that was from a game down in New Orleans.
Speaker 2 (04:31):
Oh, I like this one too.
Speaker 1 (04:33):
I don't know, is it the same side because it's
for the it's for the underdogs.
Speaker 3 (04:37):
I hate going against the Saints.
Speaker 1 (04:38):
Same But this game is so irrelevant to everyone except
for the employees of the New Orleans Saints and the
Atlanta Falcons and the fans because it's as good a
rivalry as there is that I don't think there's gonna
be a lot of national betting on this game.
Speaker 3 (04:54):
And yet I looked at this and.
Speaker 1 (04:56):
I thought, in what world are the Falcons not a
significantly better team than the Saints And they're underdogs by
two and a half, and I get Kirk Cousins is starting.
I do think that's bad, but not as bad as
it could be because Michael Pennox is up and down
and then Drake London is out, which is which is
quite bad. But ultimately I just think they're a better
(05:20):
overall unit and their defense is the best overall group
in this game.
Speaker 2 (05:24):
Yeah, this is a team that blitz is a ton
second highest blitz rate in the NFL. And you know
what happens when you look at Tyler Schuck against the blitz.
It doesn't go well. So I'm with you on that.
I also think, you know, this is my only like
and I'm I'm actually aligned with you on Atlanta winning
straight up. So I'm looking at this one and I'm like,
does this mean all the fantasy people that I work
(05:45):
with there it is. It's the Kyle Pitts game. Co
It's Coyle Poots, Coile Poots. So you're just gonna keep
and it's all fantasy pundits will say it, and it
might be, but good lord, we've been we've been really like,
stop trying to make Kyle Pitts.
Speaker 1 (06:00):
It's not gonna happen. At the beginning of the season,
it felt like it was happening. I thought he is
a better NFL player than he used to be. He
is up to forty seven receptions on the season, under
ten yards per catch with one touchdown. So not a
great fantasy season could be.
Speaker 2 (06:16):
With Darnel Mooney instead, just your favor Stop trying to
play this game of Stop trying to make fetch happen.
Speaker 1 (06:22):
You know, Ulane Grad returning to the Superdome, not that
they played with Superdome by the time he was playing there.
Speaker 2 (06:27):
It doesn't matter.
Speaker 3 (06:28):
Back when I was a student, that's where That's where
we played.
Speaker 2 (06:31):
God, that's pretty cool for you.
Speaker 3 (06:33):
Yes, and no, it was empty.
Speaker 1 (06:35):
You know, there were not many people showing up to
those games in a huge stadium.
Speaker 2 (06:39):
Green wave, you know, but didn't come. Didn't show you.
Speaker 1 (06:42):
Might be playing the college football players. But I feel
great about that, I really do. I think Shucks succeeded
so far by being really great in improvising and like
showing his athleticism. A little surprising that that's how he's winning. Yeah,
and maybe he'll continue to do that. But I just
think the Falcons defense Jalen Walker's playing better is the
(07:03):
real deal, and they will get it done on the
road and.
Speaker 3 (07:06):
Sweep that series this season. Okay, your second pick.
Speaker 2 (07:13):
Okay, so I'm just gonna I'm gonna I'm gonna go
with this one. Why not. I don't think Seattle wins
by more than thirteen and any whoa why slow it down?
Slow down the dang game. I don't necessarily think I
think that they win handily, but the interior, the center's
on ir Gray's abels. He playing left guard, I don't
(07:36):
know right, so he got injured as well. I just
think that this is a team that has there's a
ton of deep balls. We know Sam Darnold, he's gonna
throw the deep ball God, and they're good against it.
But here's the thing. I just think they slow the
pace down in this matchup just enough to not just
a little bit of pace.
Speaker 3 (07:56):
A little bit. See.
Speaker 1 (07:56):
I wish I'd led with my Seattle minus thirteen and
a half because now it feels like I'm going again.
Speaker 2 (08:00):
You can go against me.
Speaker 1 (08:01):
That was kind of my top pick, and it wasn't
much more complicated than this is the best defense in
the league, I believe, by a decent amount efficiency. Yzv
DVOA would would support that. It is the worst team
in the league. I think if I had to choose one,
maybe the worst offense in the league. And they've shown
(08:25):
that they can win games, you know, going away. They've
had they've had some blowouts and they're a wagon. Can
I talk you off of it or no? I mean
I really that was the one that was actually my
number one pick. I don't know why I started talking
about the fuck.
Speaker 2 (08:39):
I'd rather be more fun and cheer for fun.
Speaker 3 (08:43):
So let's let's go.
Speaker 2 (08:44):
I'll go with you on this side because you know,
I mean, who cares what that's like like, I don't know.
I'd rather root for more than less in the situation.
Speaker 1 (08:50):
Wait, so you're you're getting off flip. You're flipping the
whole pick. Now, that's that's crazy to more than thirteen
and a half. Yeah, now you're on the Seattle.
Speaker 2 (09:00):
Side, right, we'll flip it.
Speaker 1 (09:03):
Well, I just wanted you to get off it because
I felt bad about it. But I want to give it.
I want to you know what, I'm going to get
off it. Now.
Speaker 3 (09:09):
You stay you stay with.
Speaker 2 (09:10):
You all right, I'll stay with it, but no, crazy,
you can you can be on it too. It's totally fine.
Speaker 1 (09:14):
Okay, I'm going to go. Man, these games this week
are crazy. I'm going to go with Cleveland plus three
and a half. That was another one spoke to me.
I know Shadar Sanders is starting. That adds an element
of craziness to all the coverage, and it adds a
little bit of uncertainty to what happens in the game.
(09:35):
Is there a chance he's significantly worse than Dylan Gabriel?
I guess so, But Dylan Gabriel was performing about at
a you know, thirty first thirty second quarterback in the
league level? Should earth Sanders is going to have an
entire week to prepare. They're going to, you know, make
the game plan around Quinnchow Juggins and it's a favorable
(09:56):
matchup overall against the Raiders.
Speaker 2 (09:58):
And uh are Gino? I mean you're abandoning Gino at
the holidays?
Speaker 3 (10:04):
Yes?
Speaker 2 (10:05):
Oh, I mean Thanksgiving and your he could still.
Speaker 3 (10:07):
Win the game. I'd be fine. I'd be fine if
he won.
Speaker 1 (10:10):
Yeah, and the Browns covered three and a half. But
the hook, the hook got me here. I believe in
this defense. I watched this defense every week and I'm
so impressed how freaking hard they play. I just gave
it Alex Right a contract extension. It's a relatively unknown
defensive end who got thirty three million dollars. So on
the other side of Myles Garrett, it's not just Miles Garrett.
(10:31):
He's incredible. Schwessinger is incredible. The secondary or got some
player is.
Speaker 2 (10:36):
Tough, Carson Schwessinger.
Speaker 1 (10:38):
It's by far the best thing in this game is
u is the Browns in their defense.
Speaker 2 (10:44):
Couldn't agree more. But there's another side of me that's like, Okay,
everything is going just a rye. For the your car
breaks down, it's Gino Smith's fault. Yes, like like these
are the types of moments where Gino kind of gets
his muster. And here's the one stat I can point
to for why I only think it's by two points.
(11:05):
So I'm on the same side as you. Okay, good,
But ultimately I do think the Raiders can pull this
one out because Gino against Man, which the Browns play
the most Man, He's only had two of his thirteen
interceptions against Man. Not bad, right, much better than the
zone situation where there's been eleven. Okay, it's just I
think this is where there may be, isn't a ton
(11:27):
of an identity for this Raiders offense. When you think
of Raiders offensive than like the players' names, what do
you think of them doing? It's hard to know, right.
Speaker 1 (11:34):
Failing that's what I thinks. Tough to watch that team
was have to watch lifeless the other night. They made
the Dallas Cowboys defense look like the old doomsday Dallas
defense of the Tom Landry era for our older listeners.
Speaker 3 (11:50):
Not that I was old enough to watch.
Speaker 2 (11:51):
That, say she watched the black and white.
Speaker 1 (11:54):
I'm just saying I'm a student of history. They had
color back in the seventies. They made them look incredible.
They're totally lifeless. Both these teams are, frankly, but here's
a stat that you won't find in your model. Kevin
Stefanski is one to zero in a The loser of
this game might get fired Bowl games this year beating
(12:16):
Mike McDaniel and the Dolphins. Now McDaniel didn't get fired
in the end, but the Browns came through with a
thirty one to six victory in that game, where I
kind of feel like, maybe the loser of this game
is it is in trouble either way.
Speaker 3 (12:27):
I think they're both in I think they're both in
deep trouble, just.
Speaker 2 (12:30):
A matter of when.
Speaker 1 (12:31):
But yeah, man, three and a half points is a
lot to give the Las Vegas Raiders in the year
twenty twenty five. So I feel totally kosher with that
as my second with you on that. Okay, your third pick, Okay.
Speaker 2 (12:46):
All right, Do I have to pick green Bay?
Speaker 3 (12:53):
Sure, that's fine.
Speaker 2 (12:54):
Just feels like a better green Bay against Minnesota. I
don't love divisional matchups because weird things happen, blah blah blah.
But it's a tasty little number. Six and a half Yeah,
just means a touchdown. And I think I don't care
who is the running back in this one. You can
run on the Vikings big time. You can run big time.
(13:15):
And Jordan Love good against the Blitz, and I don't
know what happens to JJ McCarthy, Like I love splits
that are like during the time that it's scripted, he's good,
and then the rest of the game he's not so good.
So I'm gonna I think I'll go.
Speaker 1 (13:27):
But in two minute situations when they need a touchdown
at the end of the game, he's been pretty good.
Speaker 2 (13:31):
That's how you bust them. That's how you bust the spread.
But whatever, I just don't think in this match. I
just think that the talk about a unit that is
severely like very much better than the rest. It's to
me the Packers defense, big time is the best unit
in this whole thing.
Speaker 1 (13:46):
I agree with you there, and I think they're coming on.
And I think the Packers look, these two opponents are
somewhat familiar. I think that helps in these Brian Flores matchups.
For the most part, he their defense hasn't been as
good overall in these division games, certainly not against the Lions,
but you know that the Packers Vikings.
Speaker 3 (14:08):
They've been up the Lions each I know.
Speaker 1 (14:10):
But I'm just saying, like over the course of the
Bryan the b Flow history and all, I love the
way Jordan's Love played last week. Ultimately, this Vikings season
feels like, you know, you can't measure this in your model,
but just the vibes are our vibes are way back
and it's a lot of pressure waves going down. And uh,
(14:34):
I'm with you on nine.
Speaker 2 (14:35):
Nine needs to muster up the strength of the universe.
Speaker 1 (14:39):
I'm torn here because I really do like that Seattle
minus they're get let's go together.
Speaker 3 (14:43):
But you, you were on the other side. You can't
just flip sides.
Speaker 2 (14:46):
Flip sides. That's basically to be with you, because I
know it's not because I'd rather root for.
Speaker 1 (14:51):
Fun, Okay, in fun being the two of us just
looking for a big fat.
Speaker 2 (14:55):
Blow yes on Sunday. Yeah, we want just hoping that
cam Ward spread. That's not fun. Okay, So want to
be fun. Okay, I choose fun every time. Officially, that
will be my third pick.
Speaker 1 (15:07):
So my picks are Atlanta plus two and a half,
Cleveland plus three and a half, and then the Seahawks minus.
Speaker 2 (15:16):
What a sexy slate we just picked there?
Speaker 1 (15:18):
I know, and you had you had the Packers as
your pick, and and you were starting out with the
Niners covering the seven, and you're with me on the Seahawks.
Just one more thing on the Seahawks, and I do
I'm going to throw out an extra pick for this
one too. Is there is something to me about not
just the best team in the league, but the best
(15:38):
team in league coming off a loss. I just think
like this time of the year, every game is so important,
but it really does feel like good teams respond to losses.
I don't think this is a game that they are
going to take lightly. And I just really like they
are probably my I know they're behind in the division, but.
Speaker 2 (15:58):
I don't care. I'm with you.
Speaker 3 (15:59):
I just think I think they might win the Super Bowl.
I think they would be my pick right now.
Speaker 2 (16:04):
Can I tell you there's a team we missed then
based on your theory, a good team coming off a loss.
I'm not gonna pick them because I never pick my
team every I can't do it. But I think that
those frisky little kiddies, Okay, I think that's a I
understand that maybe Jackson Dart plays blah blah blah. You
got the books, Okay, I don't care.
Speaker 3 (16:27):
I don't really either. I'm you Run. I'm on that
side too.
Speaker 2 (16:30):
Yes, I will always pick on the Giants defense in
the run game until they stop it. I'm literally they
do my homework for me every week. Also prove they
can do anything against run. Now, you got to do
it against Jamior Gibbs and David Montgomery. Yes, and now
Jamison Williams sometimes running the football.
Speaker 1 (16:45):
And they've been great coming off a loss in general
this year, rre and it's Jared goff coming back to
do you want to make that your third pick instead
of Sea.
Speaker 2 (16:53):
Let's say I will never pick my team. Okay, I can't.
It's just I have too much my heart is in
it's there's too much in there.
Speaker 3 (16:59):
I'm on the same side to you on that one too.
Speaker 1 (17:01):
And I think, just Jared Gofflake returning to the friendly
confines of a dome and everyone chanting his name and
loving him, he'll do great. But my extra pick here
is actually Pittsburgh plus two and a half. Oh, I
don't care about who plays same quarterback. I think the
Bears are a little overpriced in the market.
Speaker 3 (17:21):
No, I just was this one. I was surprised.
Speaker 1 (17:24):
I was like, Okay, I do think the what are
you saying, phony fakes?
Speaker 3 (17:29):
Wow?
Speaker 2 (17:31):
I'm not saying they're phony or fakes. I'm saying that
they're right now in Seoul. They are number one in
the NFC North.
Speaker 1 (17:37):
Yes, they're twenty fifth inefficiency according to d v A,
largely because of a really poor defense.
Speaker 3 (17:43):
It's a bad defense.
Speaker 2 (17:44):
This is only dv Anyways, I'm just kidding. I'm just kidding.
I like dv IT. Some of the other ones I don't,
But I like that one. Ultimately, I'm looking at this
and I'm saying, you've got six games coming up against
last year's playoff teams. You get through some of those,
then I'll have a little more belief. Because your quarterback
right now, he has a sub sixty completion percentage that
(18:07):
is not easy to overcome. I don't care who you are.
So that is where I'm like, Okay, in terms of
making the playoffs, yes, but hosting a home playoff game
that feels like a bridge too far. I don't have
them making the playoffs to be fair, but I have
them on and as the eight seed, just on the
outside looking at I just think, think about the Packers defense,
and then think about what you think about Like, think
about what you think about the Packers, and then what
(18:27):
you think of the Bears. Even if you're not a
Lions fan like me, think about you think about the Lions,
and then what you think about It's just not they're
not there. It's and by the way, that's okay, yes,
don't Maybe it's better see Dablecama, Brian. What happens when
you make the playoffs a little too soon before your
team has caught up to your wins based on that
fourth place schedule, getting you into a much like it's
(18:48):
gonna be okay, chill.
Speaker 1 (18:51):
I think this is the swing game for their whole
season because the schedule, it's brutal after this certainly a
winnable game, whether it's Mason Rudolph or more likely Aaron Rodgers,
although I don't think Rudolph is going to be a
big negative. But I see the Bears left tackle situation,
which already wasn't great and now that they have an
injury there, and I do trust in some of the
changes that the Steelers defense has made.
Speaker 3 (19:12):
Overall.
Speaker 1 (19:13):
I think their defense is the most trustworthy group in
this game, and they can get heavy on the other
side of the ball, and I think run it on
the Bears, which I just do not trust that Bears
defense at all. And I think the Bears offense is
going to have to be so clean to win week
after week. So I like the Steelers in the scheme,
but that's a that's a bonus pick. My three will
be the falcons of the Browns and the Seahawks. All Right,
(19:36):
we're gonna nail this one. We're gonna nail it.
Speaker 3 (19:38):
We did it. You know what else?
Speaker 2 (19:39):
No that's what I'm that smells like six and oh.
Speaker 1 (19:42):
You know what else we nailed is the most recent
addition to the NFL Daily family. I have not mentioned
this on the show before, is that our friend Ali Connelly,
who I've worked with that talk sport, who has a substack,
the read optional, is going to come on board and
do a show with us weekly, and we're gonna start
doing it on Saturdays. It says in the title NFL Daily,
(20:04):
I'm adding more shows to the mixed, Cynthia.
Speaker 2 (20:07):
You can definitely afford to get your parents a driver
from the airport with all these extra shows.
Speaker 1 (20:11):
Well, they don't pay me per show, Unfortunately, I wish
they did. But I'm doing fine. I'm not that I'm
not complaining about. I love all of our partners.
Speaker 2 (20:20):
Are you ever going to not work? My goodness.
Speaker 1 (20:23):
I mentioned all that because that's the next show in
the feed. I'm no longer throwing it to Sunday Night football.
You're gonna hear Ali and I overnight. We will drop
it East Coast time into the feed and.
Speaker 2 (20:36):
We're going time East Coast time, so I can be ready.
Speaker 3 (20:38):
You know, it'll be up by the time you wake up. Okay,
you're good, Oh, you're good.
Speaker 1 (20:42):
Got it, got it, And that'll be up on Saturdays
moving forward, so really looking forward to that.
Speaker 3 (20:48):
Until then, we're both going three and O this week
Speaker 2 (20:51):
We're both going three No
Host
Gregg Rosenthal
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