November 22, 2024 • 19 mins
Gregg Rosenthal and Cynthia Frelund are back with another Man vs. Model head-to-head pick battle. Our duo deliver their picks for week 12 of the NFL regular season! Cynthia sticks with her golden strategy in the NFC East matchup between the Dallas Cowboys and Washington Commanders. Gregg then makes a bold pick for Texans-Titans. Will the Chiefs finally cover the spread? Cynthia has the answer. The duo also has the verdict on two NFC North playoff-caliber teams, the Detroit Lions and Minnesota Vikings.
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:07):
Welcome to NFL Daily, where if we're fifteen and three
over the last few weeks.
Speaker 2 (00:11):
We're gonna honk about it.
Speaker 1 (00:13):
I'm Greg Rosenthal here in the Chris Wesley podcast studio
with my friend who is on fire right now, Cynthia Freeland.
Let's go Wooo, how are you good? I think you
need to do this more. Just a little bit of
a tip for your brand. When your picks are hot,
just just talk about it a lot, and when they're not,
(00:34):
just don't say anything. Because we're hot right now. When
I said fifteen and three, I went back. I did
the numbers, I did the addition over the last three
weeks combined. He yeah, we are fifteen and three. Great,
you went three and oh let's go in week eleven
after I had a couple undefeated weeks, but I stayed
on the winning side, so I'm happy enough. And we're
both nineteen and fourteen on the season, so that's pretty
(00:55):
good as well.
Speaker 2 (00:56):
So let's keep this hot streak going. So let's do it.
Speaker 1 (00:59):
We pick three games against the spread each and every week.
The last couple of weeks we've been on the same
side and those have done well. We'll see if that
happens today, you give me your first pick.
Speaker 3 (01:08):
I mean, if something is working, I don't think that
you stray from it. And I actually believe and my
math actually supports picking against the Cowboys. Like she's doing
it again. I struggled with this. If it ain't broke,
don't forge, you're going to Okay, So there's a couple
(01:28):
of things here. The line is large. It is ten
ten and a half for Washington home, right, Okay, Washington's
at home. However, there's a couple of things here that
are a really big problem for the Cowboys, namely the
run game. They have Brian Robinson junior back. They have
Austin Eckler, who, by the way, the Cowboys also give
up the most receiving yards to the running back position.
It's twelve point seven is the average in terms of
(01:51):
YAK per catch two running.
Speaker 2 (01:55):
Backs, and they're great.
Speaker 4 (01:57):
That is what Eckler does.
Speaker 3 (01:59):
So when I'm looking at this opportunity here in Cliff Kingsbury,
I know he knows the.
Speaker 4 (02:03):
Narrative about him. The narrative is.
Speaker 3 (02:04):
After nine weeks, the blub blue boo blah, right, like
things go downhill. Yeah, Okay, five and a half points
lest per game. I see that the giveaways they double.
Also see that you know how you stop giveaways? Run
the football. Yeah, and you know what Jane Daniel does
really well, and you know what Brian Robinson Junior does
really well, runs between the tackles.
Speaker 4 (02:22):
You know what all of these guys do. They keep
it on the ground.
Speaker 3 (02:24):
So I think also with Zertz there, and we know
that zach Ertz is someone that Cliff Kingsbery.
Speaker 4 (02:30):
Really loves to target.
Speaker 1 (02:31):
Okay, this is I'm in m Maybe you've convinced me.
I don't know.
Speaker 2 (02:36):
I left him off my backline.
Speaker 1 (02:38):
We've been we've been rolling over the Cowboys or saying
they're the worst team in the NFL. Watch that Monday
night game and it wasn't close in the end.
Speaker 4 (02:46):
Nonother clue. Yeah, if they're not even playing Trey Lance.
Speaker 3 (02:50):
One way you could interpret this is that they think
that they if they play him, things could get even
worse from a losing the locker room standpoint.
Speaker 2 (03:00):
That's one way. That's because he's bad.
Speaker 1 (03:01):
Yeah, I think I don't think they trust him for
whatever reason.
Speaker 4 (03:06):
Do you think it's worse than what?
Speaker 3 (03:08):
Anyways, my point is is, if that's what's going on,
if we're at a place where we don't even want
to try, what is that telling you?
Speaker 1 (03:15):
Yeah, everything about this team is a absolute and total mess.
And yet there is something about when I saw that
ten and a half line, I was like, it just
felt too felt too easy this week. But I had
to choose a side. I definitely have Washington. I have
them written down. They're put potentially in the box. Maybe
they're my third pick. I'll think about it.
Speaker 4 (03:32):
I don't care.
Speaker 1 (03:33):
I like playing, but there was something about it that
I thought this Cowboys defense is playing a little bit
better lately, and everyone's going to think they just roll
and could it just be eight or nine points of division?
Speaker 3 (03:44):
I actually think most people think they won't like I
think that this is a tasty snack because I think
Cowboys fans want it back in on the party.
Speaker 1 (03:51):
I might just do it just to show my fahit
in you and the system that we've been on. I
only you know when I'm doing well, and picked been
on a good streak lately. Yeah, if you go check
out game deview, they keep back against the spread as well,
and we're both well over five hundred. I'm like over
twenty over five hundred now for seasons, that's good. The
(04:12):
one game that I really was sure about this week
that I was like, oh, I gotta take that was
actually Titans plus eight.
Speaker 2 (04:17):
And a half. I like the Titans this week.
Speaker 1 (04:20):
It is giving me Broncos against the Chiefs a couple
of weeks ago vibes.
Speaker 2 (04:25):
Now it's two lesser teams.
Speaker 1 (04:27):
But I just don't think the Texans are worthy of
being favored by that much against anyone, especially not a
division opponent. I know it's a new coaching staff, so
we can't take too much away from.
Speaker 2 (04:39):
The division thing.
Speaker 1 (04:41):
But I don't have many like rules in terms of
my picks, but I do think you have to earn
being that big of a favor, and at some point
you got to accept Texans fans and people that are
hoping for something different, like myself, like my son Walker,
who was CJ Stroud in Fantasy.
Speaker 2 (04:57):
It's like, at some point you got to look.
Speaker 4 (04:59):
At the numbers Walker, CJ, come on, you.
Speaker 1 (05:01):
Gotta just recognize he's only had two top twelve Fantasy
weeks all season. At some point you gotta accept the
team that we see every week that is their team,
and that's just offensively, it's not the team that we
imagine the Texans to be. It's not the team I want.
They were actually making a sweat out that Cowboys game
just a little bit. I never thought the Cowboys offense
(05:21):
would get there, so I always felt okay, but the
Texans offense was bad.
Speaker 2 (05:25):
They're funky.
Speaker 1 (05:26):
They're twenty fourth in the league on offense right now,
third on defense, so I really trust their defense and
that's why they'll probably win this game. But to me,
they're similar to the Titans. Titans twenty eighth in the
league on offense, this is Dvoway eleventh on defense. Titans
stop the run. You make the Texans one dimensional. If
they're able to stop the run against Joe Mixon, the
(05:48):
pass rush then gets to CJ.
Speaker 2 (05:51):
Stroud. They're in the same division.
Speaker 1 (05:53):
I'm not saying the Titans are gonna win, but I
do think they'll cover eight and a half and it
wouldn't shock me if the Titans won this game in
the end. I still't believe in the Texans right now.
Speaker 4 (06:04):
It's just a weird thing about the Titans that they
have these good metrics, but then they allow every single
time an opponent gets into the red area to score.
Speaker 2 (06:12):
And they never cover either. That's a problem.
Speaker 3 (06:15):
But I'm just like, Okay, no, I still like it.
Speaker 1 (06:19):
Whatever, No, you don't have to like it. It's fine. This
is the one I felt good about, and that's fine.
It was like last week, the one I felt best about.
I was wrong. That was my one out. You gotta
go with how you feel. And I know it hasn't
totally shown up in the final score, but I promise
you Will Levis has been a better version of Will
Levis the last two weeks. Yeah, maybe the best version
of Will Levis we've seen. Taking a lot of sacks,
(06:39):
so he'll probably do that on Sunday, but not making
big mistakes and making good throws when he is throwing it.
So I just think this is gonna be a game
like all the other Texans games in the division against
the Jaguars, against the Colts that they just sweat out
into the end. And it's a final position game, and
so I like getting in the eight and a half.
Give me your second.
Speaker 4 (06:57):
Pick, my second pick.
Speaker 3 (06:59):
I'm sticking with a theme of being bowld this week.
You know which team hasn't covered all season long, the Chiefs.
You know who's gonna cover this week?
Speaker 4 (07:06):
Wow, the Chiefs with eleven points, that's a lot.
Speaker 3 (07:10):
I don't care. I think this is what happens when
you lose a game. People are like, oh no, trap game?
Is it over?
Speaker 4 (07:15):
Are they not? What's gonna Oh no, Patrick Mahomes, Oh
my god, what's gonna happen?
Speaker 3 (07:19):
No?
Speaker 1 (07:19):
Uh uh.
Speaker 3 (07:20):
This is where the Kareem hunt and maybe even Isaiah
Pacheco situation.
Speaker 4 (07:23):
Being able to run against the Panthers defense.
Speaker 3 (07:25):
Yeah.
Speaker 4 (07:26):
Dj Warnam was good and against the Giants and they've had.
Speaker 2 (07:29):
A week off.
Speaker 4 (07:29):
Okay, still the same team, Like you know, bad defense.
Speaker 3 (07:33):
Yeah, the defense is not great. It's decidedly ungreat. So
even though Chubahabber's coming off a great game, even though
eleven is a lot of points to surrender, I don't care.
I think this is where Patrick Mahomes says, you don't
think I can play on the East Coast.
Speaker 4 (07:46):
You think it is blah blah blah blah blah. You're
worried about the Kicker situation. I don't care.
Speaker 3 (07:50):
We're gonna just do. We're gonna go out there and
it's just eleven points.
Speaker 2 (07:53):
No, I love it.
Speaker 1 (07:54):
I love it because it's what I want to see
when on a whole rant about it in the previous
show of like can you just looked like the Chiefs?
Everyone's give me one? Yeah, thirty five point game, this
is the spot to do it. Great matchup. Also a
tough matchup for Bryce Young on the other side. Maybe
the pass rush for the Chiefs isn't great, but the
secondary will mix it up quite a bit.
Speaker 2 (08:14):
They'll send some pressure at him.
Speaker 1 (08:15):
I don't have a strong take, but I'm definitely on
your side on this one, So I like that. I'm
going with your Lions, speaking of a heavy favorite as
my second pick. All right, Like I said this week,
even though I've been feeling it lately, the numbers didn't
speak to me as much this week. This was a
solid number two, and I'm still scrambling about number three.
The reason why I went with minus seven and a
(08:38):
half for the Lions is not just because they're one
of the best teams we've ever seen through ten weeks.
At this point, we can just say that, right, I can't.
You're making that, Jim from the office, look at the
camera there.
Speaker 4 (08:50):
I know I just did. I mean, it's just.
Speaker 1 (08:52):
And I know you know Aaron Shotts's numbers. I don't
know if those are competitors to yours, but they have
historical data of like their DVOA through ten weeks, they're
the number three so far all time, behind the seven
Patriots and one of those Washington teams in the nineties.
Speaker 2 (09:08):
Okay, so that's number one.
Speaker 1 (09:10):
But the reason why I really liked the seven and
a half was I think the matchups really bad for
the Colts. How did the Colts win last week? Really
difficult throws?
Speaker 4 (09:21):
Anthony Richardson went played lights out. This was the best
game he's played in his career.
Speaker 3 (09:24):
Two hund and seventy two passing yards and his first
time having a completion percentage overexpected ever.
Speaker 1 (09:28):
Okay, that's how they won, and it's because that's how
they had to win against the Jets, because their run
game wasn't making it happen. Against the Jets, Jonathan Taylor
had one of his worst games of the whole season.
Anthony Richardson quietly had one of his least successful games
(09:49):
on the ground in his career. Now they hit the
design runs on the goal line and that's massive. They
are going to be a really good red zone team,
which is why I think the number is as low,
even as it is, but you think about the matchup.
I think the one way you could beat the Lions
is a running game that can help support. But their
fourth and success rate against in the last month, they're
(10:11):
a really good run stopping team. This is a team
that likes to play a lot of man coverage. I
think you're gonna have to beat them through the air
again through low percentage passes. You're probably gonna have to
be playing from behind because the Colts defense is nothing great.
They just gave up twenty seven to the Jets. You know,
they couldn't run on the Jets, So I think the
Colts are okay. This isn't gonna be Jaguars versus Lions
(10:33):
or anything. I'm thinking it's more like a thirty four
to eighteen game.
Speaker 2 (10:38):
And you know what, you.
Speaker 4 (10:40):
Think, pretty darn closed.
Speaker 1 (10:41):
I mean, no, that was thirty five points last week.
I just mean in the end, maybe it's a ten
point game in the fourth quarter, you're not like not
like sitting back and just got it riding this thing out.
But I think the Lions have too much and you
get Richardson having to pass so much.
Speaker 2 (10:55):
I think that's a bad recipe.
Speaker 3 (10:56):
The one thing I will say about the Lions and
what happened with the Jags is I'm looking at this
team and I think one of their strategies is to
work out some of the kinks. So I think part
of that last week's game against the Jags was to
I mean, sorry against the Texans prior to that, was
to get Jared Goff back in rhythm or whatever you
want to say. And so that's why I think they
kept being aggressive in this game. There is something that
(11:17):
they could look to kind of get knocked their rust
off a little bit, and that's Jared Goff. All nine
of his interceptions have come against his z oone defense,
and nobody plays more zone than the Bolts. So I
agree with you. I actually think the Lions could keep
scoring in that case, just because to me, like that's
an opportunity to they do. This is I don't there
are no words, because it is not something I'm used
(11:39):
to in my lifetime.
Speaker 4 (11:40):
But yeah, the Lions are good.
Speaker 2 (11:43):
I mean they're not just good.
Speaker 1 (11:45):
Cynthia, for those who don't know, it's a diehard Lions fan,
and I've seen her struggle.
Speaker 4 (11:50):
It's really hard, it's really really cool.
Speaker 1 (11:53):
It's a tricky spot they're in now because now they're
like I just.
Speaker 4 (11:56):
Wish these were week eighteen, right, They're not quite.
Speaker 1 (11:59):
Like where Serena way where she said I'm only a
story when I lose, which is a tough place to be.
The Chiefs are in that place, right. The lines aren't
quite there. But at this point, anything short of a
Super Bowl is a little bit disappointing, which is a
tough spot to be. You just got to get to
the one seat. I think they're really handling success well.
Speaker 2 (12:19):
I think they cover seven and a half. What is
your final pick?
Speaker 3 (12:24):
Okay, so my final pick is Minnesota minus three and
a half. I just think this number isn't right. I
know it's in Chicago. I'm aware that the Bears almost
knocked off the Packers last week. I understand that they
have a new offensive corner. Hey anyone heard that before.
But I also know that the Minnesota Vikings and Aaron
Jones are sitting here being like, ain't no way we're
gonna get knocked out of this playoff wild card situation.
(12:44):
Ain't no way we're going to like let the Packers
back into this situation. Three and a half is one
of the numbers, one of the lower numbers on the
entire week. This is a weird week with a lot
of big numbers, so I felt a little bit more
comfortable at just a little bit over a few goal
as opposed to the Denver minus five and a half,
which I also really like. And it was between those
(13:05):
two for me. But I think Minnesota they win by
at least four. I think that it's their defense and
the fact that their defense is very, very good against
the run, where a Chicago's defense, especially without Andrew Billings,
you can run all over these fools. So this is
a situation where I just think Minnesota it's they out
coach on both sides of the football the Bears.
Speaker 1 (13:25):
That's a great call the coaching matchup because Thomas Brown,
I think did a great did a great job first
week as his offensive corner. But it's a whole different
matchup having to go against this Brian Flores defense, and
I think they're going to be ready for the scrambles
that Caleb Williams of. They'll actually have a week on
tape of what Thomas Brown did, which will help them out.
Speaker 2 (13:47):
I think I'm gonna go with you.
Speaker 1 (13:48):
Let's go Okay, let's go. Let's be together, because yeah,
you kind of made up my mind. I was debating
between two games at the end, which for either Minnesota
or just a gut feel that the Packers are a
better team than the forty nine ers, and that would
have been my fourth pick.
Speaker 2 (14:04):
And I know for a fact you're not on that side.
Speaker 1 (14:06):
Anyways, it doesn't matter, but you help make make up
my decision that my third pick will also be Minnesota
minus three and a half. I've been fading the Bears
all year. It's mostly worked. Last week it very much
did not work. They were outstanding on offense, their defense
was problematic. I do think the Vikings will be able
to run the ball a little bit on Chicago and
(14:28):
potentially get a lead because you're not gonna have to
score a ton, so they can be patient with the
running game. I do worry a little bit about Sam
Darnold against some of the coverage mixes that they can
show you. And the Bears have a pretty good pass defense,
but their past rush has not been nearly as good
since the first month of the season when they were
getting it done. Not really sure how they were getting
it done, but they were getting it done, and they
(14:49):
haven't been as good. So I was debating. I was
kind of leaning green Bay. I was thinking about just
doing Washington just to be your friend here. I like that,
but I didn't love it. But now we can be
aligned because we're we're here together.
Speaker 2 (15:02):
Another point and a half.
Speaker 3 (15:03):
I think green Bay could have also been like that
Chicago game could have been a little bit of a
trap game because they could have been looking at the
forty nine ers this week.
Speaker 4 (15:09):
And you know, obviously yea, I don't care like there.
Speaker 3 (15:14):
You know that, you know Lafleur is not gonna let
shant he does not. That is a the Lafleur Shanahan
thing is you know, they're all in the same tree,
blah blah blah blah like. But I do think it's
possible that they could have been looking just a little
bit ahead as opposed to focusing on the Bears quite
as much, because what you'd seen from the Bears in
weeks prior weren't a scary.
Speaker 1 (15:33):
Right, and we we tape this before we really know
the injury report, that's right, and the injury situation, and
part of the reason I was in on the Packers
are some of the injuries for the forty nine ers.
But that's kind of uncomfortable to bet on before we
really know it. Bosa perty is not one hundred percent.
Speaker 3 (15:49):
If Bosa doesn't play, if George Kittle somehow doesn't play,
then everything will be different for how I feel A
Kittle is supposed to play, right, but like supposed to everyone.
Just so you know, and I've said this is Kyle
Shanhan's face, it's fine. He's a lying liar who lies.
He doesn't need to tell us. There's no legally bound
contract saying that he needs to tell us by this
amount of time. He does exactly Friday, the injured report.
(16:10):
He says what he has to say, ninety minutes before
the game. He submits his little sheet. And Christian McCaffrey
is a great example of it. Like week one, we're like, oh,
he's playing, he's playing all of that. It's like ha,
I are, yeah, okay, But he didn't do anything that
was illegal or like not within the bounds of the rules.
Speaker 4 (16:28):
But again, the lying liar who lies strikes again.
Speaker 1 (16:31):
Or he could, Wow, I know you hit on something.
When I saw you got a reaction there in the
in the studio back there when you called Kyle, we.
Speaker 3 (16:38):
Will be fine fibbing fibber who fish you will that
as the social No, don't clip that as a social
although it's not like he again, he knows, he knows,
he thinks it's funny.
Speaker 4 (16:47):
He's not doing anything wrong.
Speaker 2 (16:49):
Okay, so too, I would lie too.
Speaker 1 (16:51):
You took Washington, Washington for that at least the third
straight week you were you were going against. We did
it together, couple of straight weeks. And I agree with you.
It's just not one of my top three. You're also
gonna go Chiefs. They're favored by eleven in Carolina. And
then we're together. We're taking those road favorites, the Vices
(17:12):
in Chicago.
Speaker 2 (17:13):
My three picks.
Speaker 1 (17:14):
I like the Titans as an underdog plus eight and
a half. I like the Lions as a favorite on
the road minus seven and a half road favorites.
Speaker 2 (17:22):
What a world we're in. What a world.
Speaker 1 (17:24):
Then I'm with you on Minnesota. My little extra picks
for what it's worth. I do like the Packers this week.
Sometimes you just got to pick the like. I just
think I just think they're a better team. Their offense,
to me, is the one group in this game that
I really think is close to or is at okay,
but no, but here's here's what I would say. No,
(17:49):
they don't have a good pass rush. But the forty
nine Ers, they're not the offense that I expected. They
need too much of Juwan Jennings. Like Juwan Jennings is
their whole offense. It's not the Christian McCaffrey. Their defense,
whether they have Bosa or not, not what I expected.
Not special Packers defense. Not in love with them to
rely on the turnover with that Packers offense, man, I
want to see yeah, I want to see you stop
(18:10):
them San Francisco, Like that's the part of the game
that I really trust. Agreed, And so I think they
get to twenty five, twenty eight points, and I just
think it's going to be too hard.
Speaker 4 (18:17):
You think, wait, hold on, if Party is playing, if
Bosa is playing, still in on the package, if Kittle's playing,
You're still in on the pack. Just making sure want
to understand.
Speaker 1 (18:25):
But Minnesota is my third pick to be official.
Speaker 4 (18:29):
Can you say it right? Please? What Minnesota?
Speaker 2 (18:32):
Minnesota?
Speaker 4 (18:32):
Yeah, Minnesota, And then.
Speaker 2 (18:36):
I'm with you.
Speaker 1 (18:36):
I kind of like the Commanders a little bit, and
that's about it.
Speaker 2 (18:40):
I do like the Seahawks, but I wouldn't even put
them in the box. I just think I think they'll win.
Speaker 4 (18:43):
I think the Seahawks are going to win too.
Speaker 3 (18:45):
My only like hesitation is I have done really poorly
picking against the Cardinals.
Speaker 2 (18:50):
So I've been picking.
Speaker 1 (18:52):
I've been on the Cardinal side all season and that's
why I'll just stay away from that one.
Speaker 2 (18:55):
Let's cross it one out. Uh.
Speaker 1 (18:57):
This was a pleasure as always. Yeah, we're not competing,
even though we're tied. Well, we are competing, but we're
trying to We're trying to win for the list and
I've noticed like the listeners are going up on this thing,
people are completing.
Speaker 2 (19:10):
I think it's because they know where we're giving them winners.
Speaker 1 (19:13):
Cynthia love it and so check Cynthia out her YouTube
channel numbers Game Behind that's growing each and every week
to check us out on NFL Game Debut.
Speaker 2 (19:24):
That is it for our week of shows at NFL Daily.
Speaker 1 (19:28):
We will be back on Sunday Night, Patrick Claybond and
of course Nick Shook.
Speaker 2 (19:34):
I am really or to that one.
Speaker 1 (19:37):
Yes, when the lion liar who lies is lying, you
know football is back.
Welcome to NFL Daily, where if we're fifteen and three
over the last few weeks.
Speaker 2 (00:11):
We're gonna honk about it.
Speaker 1 (00:13):
I'm Greg Rosenthal here in the Chris Wesley podcast studio
with my friend who is on fire right now, Cynthia Freeland.
Let's go Wooo, how are you good? I think you
need to do this more. Just a little bit of
a tip for your brand. When your picks are hot,
just just talk about it a lot, and when they're not,
(00:34):
just don't say anything. Because we're hot right now. When
I said fifteen and three, I went back. I did
the numbers, I did the addition over the last three
weeks combined. He yeah, we are fifteen and three. Great,
you went three and oh let's go in week eleven
after I had a couple undefeated weeks, but I stayed
on the winning side, so I'm happy enough. And we're
both nineteen and fourteen on the season, so that's pretty
(00:55):
good as well.
Speaker 2 (00:56):
So let's keep this hot streak going. So let's do it.
Speaker 1 (00:59):
We pick three games against the spread each and every week.
The last couple of weeks we've been on the same
side and those have done well. We'll see if that
happens today, you give me your first pick.
Speaker 3 (01:08):
I mean, if something is working, I don't think that
you stray from it. And I actually believe and my
math actually supports picking against the Cowboys. Like she's doing
it again. I struggled with this. If it ain't broke,
don't forge, you're going to Okay, So there's a couple
(01:28):
of things here. The line is large. It is ten
ten and a half for Washington home, right, Okay, Washington's
at home. However, there's a couple of things here that
are a really big problem for the Cowboys, namely the
run game. They have Brian Robinson junior back. They have
Austin Eckler, who, by the way, the Cowboys also give
up the most receiving yards to the running back position.
It's twelve point seven is the average in terms of
(01:51):
YAK per catch two running.
Speaker 2 (01:55):
Backs, and they're great.
Speaker 4 (01:57):
That is what Eckler does.
Speaker 3 (01:59):
So when I'm looking at this opportunity here in Cliff Kingsbury,
I know he knows the.
Speaker 4 (02:03):
Narrative about him. The narrative is.
Speaker 3 (02:04):
After nine weeks, the blub blue boo blah, right, like
things go downhill. Yeah, Okay, five and a half points
lest per game. I see that the giveaways they double.
Also see that you know how you stop giveaways? Run
the football. Yeah, and you know what Jane Daniel does
really well, and you know what Brian Robinson Junior does
really well, runs between the tackles.
Speaker 4 (02:22):
You know what all of these guys do. They keep
it on the ground.
Speaker 3 (02:24):
So I think also with Zertz there, and we know
that zach Ertz is someone that Cliff Kingsbery.
Speaker 4 (02:30):
Really loves to target.
Speaker 1 (02:31):
Okay, this is I'm in m Maybe you've convinced me.
I don't know.
Speaker 2 (02:36):
I left him off my backline.
Speaker 1 (02:38):
We've been we've been rolling over the Cowboys or saying
they're the worst team in the NFL. Watch that Monday
night game and it wasn't close in the end.
Speaker 4 (02:46):
Nonother clue. Yeah, if they're not even playing Trey Lance.
Speaker 3 (02:50):
One way you could interpret this is that they think
that they if they play him, things could get even
worse from a losing the locker room standpoint.
Speaker 2 (03:00):
That's one way. That's because he's bad.
Speaker 1 (03:01):
Yeah, I think I don't think they trust him for
whatever reason.
Speaker 4 (03:06):
Do you think it's worse than what?
Speaker 3 (03:08):
Anyways, my point is is, if that's what's going on,
if we're at a place where we don't even want
to try, what is that telling you?
Speaker 1 (03:15):
Yeah, everything about this team is a absolute and total mess.
And yet there is something about when I saw that
ten and a half line, I was like, it just
felt too felt too easy this week. But I had
to choose a side. I definitely have Washington. I have
them written down. They're put potentially in the box. Maybe
they're my third pick. I'll think about it.
Speaker 4 (03:32):
I don't care.
Speaker 1 (03:33):
I like playing, but there was something about it that
I thought this Cowboys defense is playing a little bit
better lately, and everyone's going to think they just roll
and could it just be eight or nine points of division?
Speaker 3 (03:44):
I actually think most people think they won't like I
think that this is a tasty snack because I think
Cowboys fans want it back in on the party.
Speaker 1 (03:51):
I might just do it just to show my fahit
in you and the system that we've been on. I
only you know when I'm doing well, and picked been
on a good streak lately. Yeah, if you go check
out game deview, they keep back against the spread as well,
and we're both well over five hundred. I'm like over
twenty over five hundred now for seasons, that's good. The
(04:12):
one game that I really was sure about this week
that I was like, oh, I gotta take that was
actually Titans plus eight.
Speaker 2 (04:17):
And a half. I like the Titans this week.
Speaker 1 (04:20):
It is giving me Broncos against the Chiefs a couple
of weeks ago vibes.
Speaker 2 (04:25):
Now it's two lesser teams.
Speaker 1 (04:27):
But I just don't think the Texans are worthy of
being favored by that much against anyone, especially not a
division opponent. I know it's a new coaching staff, so
we can't take too much away from.
Speaker 2 (04:39):
The division thing.
Speaker 1 (04:41):
But I don't have many like rules in terms of
my picks, but I do think you have to earn
being that big of a favor, and at some point
you got to accept Texans fans and people that are
hoping for something different, like myself, like my son Walker,
who was CJ Stroud in Fantasy.
Speaker 2 (04:57):
It's like, at some point you got to look.
Speaker 4 (04:59):
At the numbers Walker, CJ, come on, you.
Speaker 1 (05:01):
Gotta just recognize he's only had two top twelve Fantasy
weeks all season. At some point you gotta accept the
team that we see every week that is their team,
and that's just offensively, it's not the team that we
imagine the Texans to be. It's not the team I want.
They were actually making a sweat out that Cowboys game
just a little bit. I never thought the Cowboys offense
(05:21):
would get there, so I always felt okay, but the
Texans offense was bad.
Speaker 2 (05:25):
They're funky.
Speaker 1 (05:26):
They're twenty fourth in the league on offense right now,
third on defense, so I really trust their defense and
that's why they'll probably win this game. But to me,
they're similar to the Titans. Titans twenty eighth in the
league on offense, this is Dvoway eleventh on defense. Titans
stop the run. You make the Texans one dimensional. If
they're able to stop the run against Joe Mixon, the
(05:48):
pass rush then gets to CJ.
Speaker 2 (05:51):
Stroud. They're in the same division.
Speaker 1 (05:53):
I'm not saying the Titans are gonna win, but I
do think they'll cover eight and a half and it
wouldn't shock me if the Titans won this game in
the end. I still't believe in the Texans right now.
Speaker 4 (06:04):
It's just a weird thing about the Titans that they
have these good metrics, but then they allow every single
time an opponent gets into the red area to score.
Speaker 2 (06:12):
And they never cover either. That's a problem.
Speaker 3 (06:15):
But I'm just like, Okay, no, I still like it.
Speaker 1 (06:19):
Whatever, No, you don't have to like it. It's fine. This
is the one I felt good about, and that's fine.
It was like last week, the one I felt best about.
I was wrong. That was my one out. You gotta
go with how you feel. And I know it hasn't
totally shown up in the final score, but I promise
you Will Levis has been a better version of Will
Levis the last two weeks. Yeah, maybe the best version
of Will Levis we've seen. Taking a lot of sacks,
(06:39):
so he'll probably do that on Sunday, but not making
big mistakes and making good throws when he is throwing it.
So I just think this is gonna be a game
like all the other Texans games in the division against
the Jaguars, against the Colts that they just sweat out
into the end. And it's a final position game, and
so I like getting in the eight and a half.
Give me your second.
Speaker 4 (06:57):
Pick, my second pick.
Speaker 3 (06:59):
I'm sticking with a theme of being bowld this week.
You know which team hasn't covered all season long, the Chiefs.
You know who's gonna cover this week?
Speaker 4 (07:06):
Wow, the Chiefs with eleven points, that's a lot.
Speaker 3 (07:10):
I don't care. I think this is what happens when
you lose a game. People are like, oh no, trap game?
Is it over?
Speaker 4 (07:15):
Are they not? What's gonna Oh no, Patrick Mahomes, Oh
my god, what's gonna happen?
Speaker 3 (07:19):
No?
Speaker 1 (07:19):
Uh uh.
Speaker 3 (07:20):
This is where the Kareem hunt and maybe even Isaiah
Pacheco situation.
Speaker 4 (07:23):
Being able to run against the Panthers defense.
Speaker 3 (07:25):
Yeah.
Speaker 4 (07:26):
Dj Warnam was good and against the Giants and they've had.
Speaker 2 (07:29):
A week off.
Speaker 4 (07:29):
Okay, still the same team, Like you know, bad defense.
Speaker 3 (07:33):
Yeah, the defense is not great. It's decidedly ungreat. So
even though Chubahabber's coming off a great game, even though
eleven is a lot of points to surrender, I don't care.
I think this is where Patrick Mahomes says, you don't
think I can play on the East Coast.
Speaker 4 (07:46):
You think it is blah blah blah blah blah. You're
worried about the Kicker situation. I don't care.
Speaker 3 (07:50):
We're gonna just do. We're gonna go out there and
it's just eleven points.
Speaker 2 (07:53):
No, I love it.
Speaker 1 (07:54):
I love it because it's what I want to see
when on a whole rant about it in the previous
show of like can you just looked like the Chiefs?
Everyone's give me one? Yeah, thirty five point game, this
is the spot to do it. Great matchup. Also a
tough matchup for Bryce Young on the other side. Maybe
the pass rush for the Chiefs isn't great, but the
secondary will mix it up quite a bit.
Speaker 2 (08:14):
They'll send some pressure at him.
Speaker 1 (08:15):
I don't have a strong take, but I'm definitely on
your side on this one, So I like that. I'm
going with your Lions, speaking of a heavy favorite as
my second pick. All right, Like I said this week,
even though I've been feeling it lately, the numbers didn't
speak to me as much this week. This was a
solid number two, and I'm still scrambling about number three.
The reason why I went with minus seven and a
(08:38):
half for the Lions is not just because they're one
of the best teams we've ever seen through ten weeks.
At this point, we can just say that, right, I can't.
You're making that, Jim from the office, look at the
camera there.
Speaker 4 (08:50):
I know I just did. I mean, it's just.
Speaker 1 (08:52):
And I know you know Aaron Shotts's numbers. I don't
know if those are competitors to yours, but they have
historical data of like their DVOA through ten weeks, they're
the number three so far all time, behind the seven
Patriots and one of those Washington teams in the nineties.
Speaker 2 (09:08):
Okay, so that's number one.
Speaker 1 (09:10):
But the reason why I really liked the seven and
a half was I think the matchups really bad for
the Colts. How did the Colts win last week? Really
difficult throws?
Speaker 4 (09:21):
Anthony Richardson went played lights out. This was the best
game he's played in his career.
Speaker 3 (09:24):
Two hund and seventy two passing yards and his first
time having a completion percentage overexpected ever.
Speaker 1 (09:28):
Okay, that's how they won, and it's because that's how
they had to win against the Jets, because their run
game wasn't making it happen. Against the Jets, Jonathan Taylor
had one of his worst games of the whole season.
Anthony Richardson quietly had one of his least successful games
(09:49):
on the ground in his career. Now they hit the
design runs on the goal line and that's massive. They
are going to be a really good red zone team,
which is why I think the number is as low,
even as it is, but you think about the matchup.
I think the one way you could beat the Lions
is a running game that can help support. But their
fourth and success rate against in the last month, they're
(10:11):
a really good run stopping team. This is a team
that likes to play a lot of man coverage. I
think you're gonna have to beat them through the air
again through low percentage passes. You're probably gonna have to
be playing from behind because the Colts defense is nothing great.
They just gave up twenty seven to the Jets. You know,
they couldn't run on the Jets, So I think the
Colts are okay. This isn't gonna be Jaguars versus Lions
(10:33):
or anything. I'm thinking it's more like a thirty four
to eighteen game.
Speaker 2 (10:38):
And you know what, you.
Speaker 4 (10:40):
Think, pretty darn closed.
Speaker 1 (10:41):
I mean, no, that was thirty five points last week.
I just mean in the end, maybe it's a ten
point game in the fourth quarter, you're not like not
like sitting back and just got it riding this thing out.
But I think the Lions have too much and you
get Richardson having to pass so much.
Speaker 2 (10:55):
I think that's a bad recipe.
Speaker 3 (10:56):
The one thing I will say about the Lions and
what happened with the Jags is I'm looking at this
team and I think one of their strategies is to
work out some of the kinks. So I think part
of that last week's game against the Jags was to
I mean, sorry against the Texans prior to that, was
to get Jared Goff back in rhythm or whatever you
want to say. And so that's why I think they
kept being aggressive in this game. There is something that
(11:17):
they could look to kind of get knocked their rust
off a little bit, and that's Jared Goff. All nine
of his interceptions have come against his z oone defense,
and nobody plays more zone than the Bolts. So I
agree with you. I actually think the Lions could keep
scoring in that case, just because to me, like that's
an opportunity to they do. This is I don't there
are no words, because it is not something I'm used
(11:39):
to in my lifetime.
Speaker 4 (11:40):
But yeah, the Lions are good.
Speaker 2 (11:43):
I mean they're not just good.
Speaker 1 (11:45):
Cynthia, for those who don't know, it's a diehard Lions fan,
and I've seen her struggle.
Speaker 4 (11:50):
It's really hard, it's really really cool.
Speaker 1 (11:53):
It's a tricky spot they're in now because now they're
like I just.
Speaker 4 (11:56):
Wish these were week eighteen, right, They're not quite.
Speaker 1 (11:59):
Like where Serena way where she said I'm only a
story when I lose, which is a tough place to be.
The Chiefs are in that place, right. The lines aren't
quite there. But at this point, anything short of a
Super Bowl is a little bit disappointing, which is a
tough spot to be. You just got to get to
the one seat. I think they're really handling success well.
Speaker 2 (12:19):
I think they cover seven and a half. What is
your final pick?
Speaker 3 (12:24):
Okay, so my final pick is Minnesota minus three and
a half. I just think this number isn't right. I
know it's in Chicago. I'm aware that the Bears almost
knocked off the Packers last week. I understand that they
have a new offensive corner. Hey anyone heard that before.
But I also know that the Minnesota Vikings and Aaron
Jones are sitting here being like, ain't no way we're
gonna get knocked out of this playoff wild card situation.
(12:44):
Ain't no way we're going to like let the Packers
back into this situation. Three and a half is one
of the numbers, one of the lower numbers on the
entire week. This is a weird week with a lot
of big numbers, so I felt a little bit more
comfortable at just a little bit over a few goal
as opposed to the Denver minus five and a half,
which I also really like. And it was between those
(13:05):
two for me. But I think Minnesota they win by
at least four. I think that it's their defense and
the fact that their defense is very, very good against
the run, where a Chicago's defense, especially without Andrew Billings,
you can run all over these fools. So this is
a situation where I just think Minnesota it's they out
coach on both sides of the football the Bears.
Speaker 1 (13:25):
That's a great call the coaching matchup because Thomas Brown,
I think did a great did a great job first
week as his offensive corner. But it's a whole different
matchup having to go against this Brian Flores defense, and
I think they're going to be ready for the scrambles
that Caleb Williams of. They'll actually have a week on
tape of what Thomas Brown did, which will help them out.
Speaker 2 (13:47):
I think I'm gonna go with you.
Speaker 1 (13:48):
Let's go Okay, let's go. Let's be together, because yeah,
you kind of made up my mind. I was debating
between two games at the end, which for either Minnesota
or just a gut feel that the Packers are a
better team than the forty nine ers, and that would
have been my fourth pick.
Speaker 2 (14:04):
And I know for a fact you're not on that side.
Speaker 1 (14:06):
Anyways, it doesn't matter, but you help make make up
my decision that my third pick will also be Minnesota
minus three and a half. I've been fading the Bears
all year. It's mostly worked. Last week it very much
did not work. They were outstanding on offense, their defense
was problematic. I do think the Vikings will be able
to run the ball a little bit on Chicago and
(14:28):
potentially get a lead because you're not gonna have to
score a ton, so they can be patient with the
running game. I do worry a little bit about Sam
Darnold against some of the coverage mixes that they can
show you. And the Bears have a pretty good pass defense,
but their past rush has not been nearly as good
since the first month of the season when they were
getting it done. Not really sure how they were getting
it done, but they were getting it done, and they
(14:49):
haven't been as good. So I was debating. I was
kind of leaning green Bay. I was thinking about just
doing Washington just to be your friend here. I like that,
but I didn't love it. But now we can be
aligned because we're we're here together.
Speaker 2 (15:02):
Another point and a half.
Speaker 3 (15:03):
I think green Bay could have also been like that
Chicago game could have been a little bit of a
trap game because they could have been looking at the
forty nine ers this week.
Speaker 4 (15:09):
And you know, obviously yea, I don't care like there.
Speaker 3 (15:14):
You know that, you know Lafleur is not gonna let
shant he does not. That is a the Lafleur Shanahan
thing is you know, they're all in the same tree,
blah blah blah blah like. But I do think it's
possible that they could have been looking just a little
bit ahead as opposed to focusing on the Bears quite
as much, because what you'd seen from the Bears in
weeks prior weren't a scary.
Speaker 1 (15:33):
Right, and we we tape this before we really know
the injury report, that's right, and the injury situation, and
part of the reason I was in on the Packers
are some of the injuries for the forty nine ers.
But that's kind of uncomfortable to bet on before we
really know it. Bosa perty is not one hundred percent.
Speaker 3 (15:49):
If Bosa doesn't play, if George Kittle somehow doesn't play,
then everything will be different for how I feel A
Kittle is supposed to play, right, but like supposed to everyone.
Just so you know, and I've said this is Kyle
Shanhan's face, it's fine. He's a lying liar who lies.
He doesn't need to tell us. There's no legally bound
contract saying that he needs to tell us by this
amount of time. He does exactly Friday, the injured report.
(16:10):
He says what he has to say, ninety minutes before
the game. He submits his little sheet. And Christian McCaffrey
is a great example of it. Like week one, we're like, oh,
he's playing, he's playing all of that. It's like ha,
I are, yeah, okay, But he didn't do anything that
was illegal or like not within the bounds of the rules.
Speaker 4 (16:28):
But again, the lying liar who lies strikes again.
Speaker 1 (16:31):
Or he could, Wow, I know you hit on something.
When I saw you got a reaction there in the
in the studio back there when you called Kyle, we.
Speaker 3 (16:38):
Will be fine fibbing fibber who fish you will that
as the social No, don't clip that as a social
although it's not like he again, he knows, he knows,
he thinks it's funny.
Speaker 4 (16:47):
He's not doing anything wrong.
Speaker 2 (16:49):
Okay, so too, I would lie too.
Speaker 1 (16:51):
You took Washington, Washington for that at least the third
straight week you were you were going against. We did
it together, couple of straight weeks. And I agree with you.
It's just not one of my top three. You're also
gonna go Chiefs. They're favored by eleven in Carolina. And
then we're together. We're taking those road favorites, the Vices
(17:12):
in Chicago.
Speaker 2 (17:13):
My three picks.
Speaker 1 (17:14):
I like the Titans as an underdog plus eight and
a half. I like the Lions as a favorite on
the road minus seven and a half road favorites.
Speaker 2 (17:22):
What a world we're in. What a world.
Speaker 1 (17:24):
Then I'm with you on Minnesota. My little extra picks
for what it's worth. I do like the Packers this week.
Sometimes you just got to pick the like. I just
think I just think they're a better team. Their offense,
to me, is the one group in this game that
I really think is close to or is at okay,
but no, but here's here's what I would say. No,
(17:49):
they don't have a good pass rush. But the forty
nine Ers, they're not the offense that I expected. They
need too much of Juwan Jennings. Like Juwan Jennings is
their whole offense. It's not the Christian McCaffrey. Their defense,
whether they have Bosa or not, not what I expected.
Not special Packers defense. Not in love with them to
rely on the turnover with that Packers offense, man, I
want to see yeah, I want to see you stop
(18:10):
them San Francisco, Like that's the part of the game
that I really trust. Agreed, And so I think they
get to twenty five, twenty eight points, and I just
think it's going to be too hard.
Speaker 4 (18:17):
You think, wait, hold on, if Party is playing, if
Bosa is playing, still in on the package, if Kittle's playing,
You're still in on the pack. Just making sure want
to understand.
Speaker 1 (18:25):
But Minnesota is my third pick to be official.
Speaker 4 (18:29):
Can you say it right? Please? What Minnesota?
Speaker 2 (18:32):
Minnesota?
Speaker 4 (18:32):
Yeah, Minnesota, And then.
Speaker 2 (18:36):
I'm with you.
Speaker 1 (18:36):
I kind of like the Commanders a little bit, and
that's about it.
Speaker 2 (18:40):
I do like the Seahawks, but I wouldn't even put
them in the box. I just think I think they'll win.
Speaker 4 (18:43):
I think the Seahawks are going to win too.
Speaker 3 (18:45):
My only like hesitation is I have done really poorly
picking against the Cardinals.
Speaker 2 (18:50):
So I've been picking.
Speaker 1 (18:52):
I've been on the Cardinal side all season and that's
why I'll just stay away from that one.
Speaker 2 (18:55):
Let's cross it one out. Uh.
Speaker 1 (18:57):
This was a pleasure as always. Yeah, we're not competing,
even though we're tied. Well, we are competing, but we're
trying to We're trying to win for the list and
I've noticed like the listeners are going up on this thing,
people are completing.
Speaker 2 (19:10):
I think it's because they know where we're giving them winners.
Speaker 1 (19:13):
Cynthia love it and so check Cynthia out her YouTube
channel numbers Game Behind that's growing each and every week
to check us out on NFL Game Debut.
Speaker 2 (19:24):
That is it for our week of shows at NFL Daily.
Speaker 1 (19:28):
We will be back on Sunday Night, Patrick Claybond and
of course Nick Shook.
Speaker 2 (19:34):
I am really or to that one.
Speaker 1 (19:37):
Yes, when the lion liar who lies is lying, you
know football is back.
Host
Gregg Rosenthal
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