December 26, 2025 • 14 mins
Gregg Rosenthal and NFL Network's Cynthia Frelund give you their picks for Week 17 and they aren't afraid to take risks. They start with Texans vs Chargers followed by Packers vs. Ravens (02:30), 49ers vs. Bears (05:00), Rams vs. Falcons (07:15), Patriots vs. Jets (08:50), and Dolphins vs. Buccaneers (11:13).
Note: time codes approximate.
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Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:05):
Welcome to NFL Daily, where we love a little Christmas drama.
I'm Greg Rosenthal here in the Chris Westleying podcast studio
with my friend Cynthia Freeland. And the drama that I'm
referring to is not whether I can keep the twelve
straight winning weeks going?
Speaker 2 (00:21):
Can we know you can?
Speaker 1 (00:22):
Thirteen? No, the drama is can we get Cynthia to
a plane on Christmas Eve? On time? The seer in laws?
Speaker 2 (00:32):
We'll find out, which means we got to find We're fine.
We're gonna be totally fine.
Speaker 1 (00:35):
So if you're listening to this, it's probably the day
after Christmas or sometime over the weekend, and we hope
you had a great holiday. This is the show where
we pick three games against the spread each and every week.
And yes, as I mentioned, I kept the winning streak
going last week. Shout out to the Chargers for coming
through for me. And let's move on to the seventeen picks.
(00:59):
Thirty one and good on the season. So good. I
can't remember even what my other winning pick was, but
who cares. Let's get to Cynthia's winning picks this week.
What is your first one?
Speaker 2 (01:09):
I want to start off with a Saturday game, because
games of consequence feel like better opportunities to pick, especially
if you're looking against the spread. So the very first one,
the one where we you know, know who's playing at
least at the quarterback position presumably, so ultimately I think
that the Texans take care of business and have the
upset here at SOFI Stadium, Rainy, there's a tornado warning
(01:32):
here in South the Colt crazy stuff going on here,
including the fact that I still think that when it
comes down to which team will be able to exact
their will on the other team's offense more efficiently and effectively.
I mean, between Daniel Hunter and you know, Will Anderson Junior,
it's just going to be a lot of pressure and
a lot of justin Herbert's just going to have to
(01:52):
contend with a lot, which is something he's been doing
all season. However, I think Houston has the edge in
this one.
Speaker 1 (01:57):
I'm torn on this one. As you know, we tape
their show game debut, which if you're curious, you can
always check out on YouTube. We appreciate everyone, yes, who
watches this show on YouTube. Everyone should also be subscribing
and checking out Numbers Games starring Cynthia Freeland, but it's
put up on the NFL feed as our NFL pick. Sure,
that's every game, and I pick up the Chargers, but
(02:17):
I don't feel strong about this one. And certainly last
year's playoff game has you worried that the matchup for
the Chargers is just a bad one. And I was
a little surprised at actually that they were favored in this.
Speaker 2 (02:29):
Do you know that Will Anderson Junior on third down
has twelve more pressures than the next closest player, whose
name is Miles Garrett, just saying.
Speaker 1 (02:35):
That's a forty three good call? And I know you
know you have respect for DVOA, you trust your model more,
but that they have a pretty big difference between these
two teams, So they would support you number five team
in the law, and.
Speaker 2 (02:46):
They support me. I like that.
Speaker 1 (02:48):
Yes, is the Texas and the Chargers down there at
fourteen because their offense is so inconsistent. That was a
stay away from me A game I am going to pick.
I really like four games this week, and so I'm struggling.
I kind of want you to pick one of them
and then we'll see it. We'll see if that actually happened. No,
I mean and then it'll just like make it out
of the way for me. Yeah, I hate doing this
(03:10):
because as we're taping, I'm not sure who's starting at
quarterback for the Packers or the Ravens for sure, But
the reason I'm comfortable taking it, and right now it's
three points. It could certainly raise if it looks like
it's going to be snoopont Ley versus Jordan Love, which
my gut tells me is the most likely outcome, but
it could be Lamar Jackson versus Jordan Love, it could
be Malik Wills. It doesn't matter. The Packers are going
(03:33):
to cover this number no matter what it is. I
just think that the Ravens are a dead team walking.
I'm going to talk about the Bucks a little later,
but they're in the same position for me, okay, at
least this week. I have you ever heard of a
phrase called like a death wish, you know, like someone
who's almost going through like they almost have a death.
(03:53):
Sometimes teams get a death wish and it somehow comes
out in the form of what happens in fourth quarters
of games, Like suddenly Zay Flowers fumbles the ball and
the defense starts giving up big plays when it comes
to the Ravens, I just don't think this is a
good team. And I think the Packers lost two brutal
games where they played pretty well back to back, but
(04:15):
I think they're ultimately a much better team. And I
just think these two teams are in different classes, and
I think the defense can give the Ravens some problems,
you know, send some different looks, but it's really about
the offense of the Packers that even if it's Malik Willis,
I think it can get a lot done on the
ground and just beat this Ravens team and kind of
put them out of their misery on Saturday night clinch
(04:37):
a playoff spot for themselves and the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Speaker 2 (04:40):
I mean, look, I think it's very interesting. I'm with
you on the entire thing. And I'll add that the
Ravens are only getting the fourth lowest pressure rate, meaning
they're you know, very not consistent at getting pressure on
any quarterback. Malik Willis played admirably in the loss great
the Bear. So it's not like, I mean it's a
step down, of course, because Jordan loves in a diff
front class, but like it's not this massive step down
(05:02):
where you're like Oh no, all hope is lost, not
even not even.
Speaker 1 (05:04):
You just reminded me who my other right pick was
last week. Fortunately it was against your line. Oh, I
don't care, just the Steeler. Remember I said, it seems
like I had a seven point You also had the
Steelers cover.
Speaker 2 (05:17):
I had the Steelers covering this spread. I just had
the Lions winning the game.
Speaker 1 (05:20):
Let's go to your second pick.
Speaker 2 (05:21):
Okay, my second pick. What's the number you're seeing for
San Francisco on Sunday night?
Speaker 1 (05:26):
Three? Okay?
Speaker 2 (05:27):
Yeah, San Francisco covers that number. Okay, I think the
night is that one? Or four?
Speaker 1 (05:31):
No?
Speaker 2 (05:31):
Oh wow, okay, I'm trying to guess you're four based
on knowing who you picked it every game. Didn't pick it?
Speaker 1 (05:36):
Uh. I do like the forty nine ers in that
game if I had to take one, but you know
I respect them both enough I stayed away. Yeah.
Speaker 2 (05:42):
It's not that I don't like the Bears. I just
think when one team's massive strength is to run the
football or to create the there are approximating runs with
some of the stuff they do. With Christian McCaffrey and
his ability to keep things on the ground and not
when you're so turnover reliant, like if you look at
point differential, which isn't the old only measure of something
someone's success, Like the Bears are at like thirty three points,
(06:04):
so meaning they're winning very close games. We get it,
but they're also turnover reliant. When you're so turnover reliant
and you're playing Kyle Shanahan the week after he just
played and beat another Shanahan Tree guy, I just think
he's gonna sit there and be like, okay, because that
is talk about a watching film that's really relevant to
what you do. That's the same fundamental offense as the
(06:26):
Green Bay Packers, right, different people, different strengths and weaknesses,
but the same ideas and concepts, the same tree. So
I just I have struggled to find a way for
them to keep that going unless they get some crazy
amount of turnovers.
Speaker 1 (06:39):
But I don't think that happens. I've loved brock Perdy's
decision making lately.
Speaker 2 (06:43):
I think he's certain dimes too as you watch it
are like who threw that spiral?
Speaker 1 (06:48):
He did?
Speaker 2 (06:49):
Joe Joe Montana.
Speaker 1 (06:50):
Complete some highly difficulty throws, but sometimes he almost tries
too many, and I think he's really had it dialed
in what to go for and not to and I
just think that offense is a wagon. So I'm with you.
I like that pick. This was just a week, you
know how Last week I was like, yeah, man, there's
only one game I really love to this game. This
week I loved like five and so that was one
(07:12):
of my loves. That was one of my likes. Let's
go to another love, okay, because if it was actually,
if it was my money, what is what is your
third pick gonna be? I want to see if it's
one of mine, so then you can just.
Speaker 2 (07:26):
Take I just pointed it, so I don't sure this one, Okay,
that was gonna be one of mine, so I will
I will let you take that.
Speaker 1 (07:33):
That's perfect. Let's let's go to the Rams, okay. Okay,
I'm not going to say that the Rams are gonna
try harder because they lost, although the Sean McVay has
been saying that he's just like, this is gonna make
us stronger. This lost, I can see it. Here's what
else is going to make you stronger? Having extra rest
another day, having extra rest against the Atlanta Falcons, three
(07:54):
days extra rest. At this time of year, I think
it's a thing, and then playing the Atlanta Falcons, that's
the thing. You just put up five hundred and eighty
yards on the Seattle Seahawks defense, and now you're gonna
go up against Raheem Morris, someone you're very familiar with,
who really has only had good games this year defensively
when he can confuse the other opponent, when they can
(08:15):
send all sorts of blitzes and they get really creative.
Just try it against Matthew Stafford. He's seen it all before.
Sean McVay kind of knows what's coming. And they're gonna
have perfect conditions there in the Dome, not much of
a home field advantage. I don't believe in Atlanta and
a team that really needs to win the game, and
I think they'd love to make a statement and like
(08:37):
rest guys in the fourth quarter of this game. And
that's how good I think that they are. So good
luck trying to convince him. And also it's on Monday night,
little MVP magic here. And on the flip side, it's
like Kirk Cousins has been good, but he's only been
good when he hasn't faced much much pressure, and I
think he will face some pressure, so they're seven and
a half point favorites. I thought it'd be a little more. Frankly,
(08:59):
I just I don't think the Falcons. I know they've
won six games and they're not one of the worst
teams in the league or anything. But at this point
in the season, I would take ten for the Rams
and feel fine about it.
Speaker 2 (09:10):
Yeah. No, I think that could get bit up too,
and I'd be comfortable with it, all right. My last
one New England, Yes.
Speaker 1 (09:16):
That was one where like if it was actually we're
not allowed to bet not and I love that for us,
although this year it would have been profitable for me.
But if it was actually my money, I think I
would maybe go with that. But it didn't seem as
interesting to me. It almost just seemed seemed too weaky.
Speaker 2 (09:34):
What would you bid it up?
Speaker 1 (09:34):
Too?
Speaker 2 (09:36):
So like where is it? What are you seeing?
Speaker 1 (09:38):
Like sixteen and a half? It's at thirteen and a
half right now?
Speaker 2 (09:40):
Yeah, so sub fourteen that's crazy. So to me, I
would have bit it up probably sixteen something that would
be more comfortable like that. Like I so when you
see the differential of three points like tasty.
Speaker 1 (09:54):
Especially for your conservative model, and I have a number
that big yes, what is the Brady Cook factor in
your model?
Speaker 2 (10:01):
Unfortunately, for Brady Cook, it's the problem with the problem
that he has is that there's a lot of great
pieces of this New England defense that are maybe even
a little bit underrated, like Kayleevon Chase On, Like, we
don't talk about him enough, although his name is fun
to say, so we should. But you know, he was
a bargain and coming off the edge he's done great.
Speaker 1 (10:17):
You know he might come back there by the way,
Milton Williams.
Speaker 2 (10:21):
I wasn't even I didn't. I was doing this without
even factoring Milton Williams. And and he was their big money.
They were very spendy on him and it paid off.
Speaker 1 (10:28):
So I don't know.
Speaker 2 (10:29):
I just think this. This is a not to say
that the Jets don't have anything to play for, but
like these whole team.
Speaker 1 (10:34):
I mean they don't. No team is truly tanking harder
than the Jets. Now they put Brock Bauers on injured reserve, right,
that would be much lower on my list. The Raiders game.
But here's what that's a little bit of a tank move.
But playing Brady Cook is a tank move. They could Taylor.
Speaker 2 (10:51):
But think about it. The Raiders, Pete Carroll, Pete Carroll,
He's gonna try. Yeah, I'm staying with car Stay the
heck away from anything to do with Pete Carroll and
the Giants just don't do it. Yes, I guess that
could that one coin flip fifty truly a fifty to
fifty to me.
Speaker 1 (11:06):
Here's a great stat about the Jets that I had
ready and go I los it was my pick. In
the last three weeks, they have been outscored one hundred
and eleven to thirty six. That is an average of
twenty five points. And it's not like one week was
forty and the other was ten. No, they were all
twenty two and above for three straight weeks. And two
of those games were against teams were that were well
(11:28):
under five hundred, so they weren't even good teams. The
Jags beat them up too, and they're a good team.
But yeah, I think the Pat's killed all right. My
last one is one of those teams that beat up
on the Jets a couple weeks back. It is the
Miami Dolphins plus five and a half. Let's get frisky
with Quinn viewers. In Week seventeen over the Bucks, don't
doubt me. Although I do lose one every week, it's
(11:50):
usually two and one, not three and zero. But I've
had a winning week twelve straight weeks. Quinn eewers in
that game and this one I wouldn't feel comfort about
if I didn't go back and watch it. I thought
he played find They had three straight turnovers in the
third quarter. Maybe one was his fault, but the other
was a fluky tip. The other was a fumble by
(12:12):
you know, one of his teammates, and the other was
just they got stuffed on a fourth and one. And
when I talked about the death wish, I just got
bad vibes about this Bucks team, And so I'm taking the.
Speaker 2 (12:23):
You have worse vibes about the Bucks than the Dolphins.
Speaker 1 (12:26):
No, but the Bucks.
Speaker 2 (12:28):
But the bad vibes have already passed, Like the Dolphins
have already absorbed their bad vibes. Now they're in a
post bad vibe world.
Speaker 1 (12:36):
It's more that close. Late in games, they're playing like
Baker Mayfield plays just a little frenetic, and I can
see them winning this game. I initially picked them to
win this game, but five and a half is just
a lot for me for a team that doesn't do
anything well right now, if you kind of look at
all their underlying metrics, like you do, run defense is okay,
(12:58):
but I don't think they'll be good on the outside.
They're slower against Devon a Chan. Everything else is below average,
like run offense, run passing offense, passing defense, especially like
they're just a mediocre team. These to me, are two
mediocre teams. The Bucks are like two and seven in
their last nine games.
Speaker 2 (13:14):
I know it's not good.
Speaker 1 (13:15):
That's pretty brutal. And the Dolphins they're okay. So to me,
this is like one of those coin flip games. That's
how I see it. And so the fact that I'm
getting five and a half means I'll take the five
and a half and it means on game debut. Since
I truly do believe in my heart it's a coin
flip game, I might as well just take the Dolphins
to win.
Speaker 2 (13:32):
Because we only count the straight ups as are.
Speaker 1 (13:34):
And because you and Patrick are taking me to the
woodshed this year.
Speaker 2 (13:37):
So that's why we should. You should do it.
Speaker 1 (13:38):
It's a good strategy. I'm doing much better against the
spread than I am straight up, so it's awesome. That's it.
We made it.
Speaker 2 (13:45):
We did it. Thank you so much, Chris.
Speaker 1 (13:47):
Cynthia, you are the best. Like I said, check out numbers.
Speaker 2 (13:51):
So you guys all know you think he's cool when
you listen to him on this podcast, he's nobody thinks
that ten times better in real life.
Speaker 1 (13:58):
You know what Cynthia did though, she baked eleven different
types of cookies. She spent an entire day, entire week
and brought in eleven different types of selections of cookies
for everyone in makeup and hair and production to have.
And that's the kind of woman that Cynthia's. All right,
(14:19):
we got to get you to your in laws. Merry
Christmas to you, Cynthia and to everyone listening. We will
be back in the audio feed in on YouTube this week. Yes,
I'm calling it.
Speaker 2 (14:30):
I'm calling my shot.
Speaker 1 (14:31):
We're gonna talk about the Christmas games. We're gonna recap that.
I'm gonna have Will Gavin from Talk Sport. We'll do
that on Friday afternoon, So have a look for that
and we will see that
Welcome to NFL Daily, where we love a little Christmas drama.
I'm Greg Rosenthal here in the Chris Westleying podcast studio
with my friend Cynthia Freeland. And the drama that I'm
referring to is not whether I can keep the twelve
straight winning weeks going?
Speaker 2 (00:21):
Can we know you can?
Speaker 1 (00:22):
Thirteen? No, the drama is can we get Cynthia to
a plane on Christmas Eve? On time? The seer in laws?
Speaker 2 (00:32):
We'll find out, which means we got to find We're fine.
We're gonna be totally fine.
Speaker 1 (00:35):
So if you're listening to this, it's probably the day
after Christmas or sometime over the weekend, and we hope
you had a great holiday. This is the show where
we pick three games against the spread each and every week.
And yes, as I mentioned, I kept the winning streak
going last week. Shout out to the Chargers for coming
through for me. And let's move on to the seventeen picks.
(00:59):
Thirty one and good on the season. So good. I
can't remember even what my other winning pick was, but
who cares. Let's get to Cynthia's winning picks this week.
What is your first one?
Speaker 2 (01:09):
I want to start off with a Saturday game, because
games of consequence feel like better opportunities to pick, especially
if you're looking against the spread. So the very first one,
the one where we you know, know who's playing at
least at the quarterback position presumably, so ultimately I think
that the Texans take care of business and have the
upset here at SOFI Stadium, Rainy, there's a tornado warning
(01:32):
here in South the Colt crazy stuff going on here,
including the fact that I still think that when it
comes down to which team will be able to exact
their will on the other team's offense more efficiently and effectively.
I mean, between Daniel Hunter and you know, Will Anderson Junior,
it's just going to be a lot of pressure and
a lot of justin Herbert's just going to have to
(01:52):
contend with a lot, which is something he's been doing
all season. However, I think Houston has the edge in
this one.
Speaker 1 (01:57):
I'm torn on this one. As you know, we tape
their show game debut, which if you're curious, you can
always check out on YouTube. We appreciate everyone, yes, who
watches this show on YouTube. Everyone should also be subscribing
and checking out Numbers Games starring Cynthia Freeland, but it's
put up on the NFL feed as our NFL pick. Sure,
that's every game, and I pick up the Chargers, but
(02:17):
I don't feel strong about this one. And certainly last
year's playoff game has you worried that the matchup for
the Chargers is just a bad one. And I was
a little surprised at actually that they were favored in this.
Speaker 2 (02:29):
Do you know that Will Anderson Junior on third down
has twelve more pressures than the next closest player, whose
name is Miles Garrett, just saying.
Speaker 1 (02:35):
That's a forty three good call? And I know you
know you have respect for DVOA, you trust your model more,
but that they have a pretty big difference between these
two teams, So they would support you number five team
in the law, and.
Speaker 2 (02:46):
They support me. I like that.
Speaker 1 (02:48):
Yes, is the Texas and the Chargers down there at
fourteen because their offense is so inconsistent. That was a
stay away from me A game I am going to pick.
I really like four games this week, and so I'm struggling.
I kind of want you to pick one of them
and then we'll see it. We'll see if that actually happened. No,
I mean and then it'll just like make it out
of the way for me. Yeah, I hate doing this
(03:10):
because as we're taping, I'm not sure who's starting at
quarterback for the Packers or the Ravens for sure, But
the reason I'm comfortable taking it, and right now it's
three points. It could certainly raise if it looks like
it's going to be snoopont Ley versus Jordan Love, which
my gut tells me is the most likely outcome, but
it could be Lamar Jackson versus Jordan Love, it could
be Malik Wills. It doesn't matter. The Packers are going
(03:33):
to cover this number no matter what it is. I
just think that the Ravens are a dead team walking.
I'm going to talk about the Bucks a little later,
but they're in the same position for me, okay, at
least this week. I have you ever heard of a
phrase called like a death wish, you know, like someone
who's almost going through like they almost have a death.
(03:53):
Sometimes teams get a death wish and it somehow comes
out in the form of what happens in fourth quarters
of games, Like suddenly Zay Flowers fumbles the ball and
the defense starts giving up big plays when it comes
to the Ravens, I just don't think this is a
good team. And I think the Packers lost two brutal
games where they played pretty well back to back, but
(04:15):
I think they're ultimately a much better team. And I
just think these two teams are in different classes, and
I think the defense can give the Ravens some problems,
you know, send some different looks, but it's really about
the offense of the Packers that even if it's Malik Willis,
I think it can get a lot done on the
ground and just beat this Ravens team and kind of
put them out of their misery on Saturday night clinch
(04:37):
a playoff spot for themselves and the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Speaker 2 (04:40):
I mean, look, I think it's very interesting. I'm with
you on the entire thing. And I'll add that the
Ravens are only getting the fourth lowest pressure rate, meaning
they're you know, very not consistent at getting pressure on
any quarterback. Malik Willis played admirably in the loss great
the Bear. So it's not like, I mean it's a
step down, of course, because Jordan loves in a diff
front class, but like it's not this massive step down
(05:02):
where you're like Oh no, all hope is lost, not
even not even.
Speaker 1 (05:04):
You just reminded me who my other right pick was
last week. Fortunately it was against your line. Oh, I
don't care, just the Steeler. Remember I said, it seems
like I had a seven point You also had the
Steelers cover.
Speaker 2 (05:17):
I had the Steelers covering this spread. I just had
the Lions winning the game.
Speaker 1 (05:20):
Let's go to your second pick.
Speaker 2 (05:21):
Okay, my second pick. What's the number you're seeing for
San Francisco on Sunday night?
Speaker 1 (05:26):
Three? Okay?
Speaker 2 (05:27):
Yeah, San Francisco covers that number. Okay, I think the
night is that one? Or four?
Speaker 1 (05:31):
No?
Speaker 2 (05:31):
Oh wow, okay, I'm trying to guess you're four based
on knowing who you picked it every game. Didn't pick it?
Speaker 1 (05:36):
Uh. I do like the forty nine ers in that
game if I had to take one, but you know
I respect them both enough I stayed away. Yeah.
Speaker 2 (05:42):
It's not that I don't like the Bears. I just
think when one team's massive strength is to run the
football or to create the there are approximating runs with
some of the stuff they do. With Christian McCaffrey and
his ability to keep things on the ground and not
when you're so turnover reliant, like if you look at
point differential, which isn't the old only measure of something
someone's success, Like the Bears are at like thirty three points,
(06:04):
so meaning they're winning very close games. We get it,
but they're also turnover reliant. When you're so turnover reliant
and you're playing Kyle Shanahan the week after he just
played and beat another Shanahan Tree guy, I just think
he's gonna sit there and be like, okay, because that
is talk about a watching film that's really relevant to
what you do. That's the same fundamental offense as the
(06:26):
Green Bay Packers, right, different people, different strengths and weaknesses,
but the same ideas and concepts, the same tree. So
I just I have struggled to find a way for
them to keep that going unless they get some crazy
amount of turnovers.
Speaker 1 (06:39):
But I don't think that happens. I've loved brock Perdy's
decision making lately.
Speaker 2 (06:43):
I think he's certain dimes too as you watch it
are like who threw that spiral?
Speaker 1 (06:48):
He did?
Speaker 2 (06:49):
Joe Joe Montana.
Speaker 1 (06:50):
Complete some highly difficulty throws, but sometimes he almost tries
too many, and I think he's really had it dialed
in what to go for and not to and I
just think that offense is a wagon. So I'm with you.
I like that pick. This was just a week, you
know how Last week I was like, yeah, man, there's
only one game I really love to this game. This
week I loved like five and so that was one
(07:12):
of my loves. That was one of my likes. Let's
go to another love, okay, because if it was actually,
if it was my money, what is what is your
third pick gonna be? I want to see if it's
one of mine, so then you can just.
Speaker 2 (07:26):
Take I just pointed it, so I don't sure this one, Okay,
that was gonna be one of mine, so I will
I will let you take that.
Speaker 1 (07:33):
That's perfect. Let's let's go to the Rams, okay. Okay,
I'm not going to say that the Rams are gonna
try harder because they lost, although the Sean McVay has
been saying that he's just like, this is gonna make
us stronger. This lost, I can see it. Here's what
else is going to make you stronger? Having extra rest
another day, having extra rest against the Atlanta Falcons, three
(07:54):
days extra rest. At this time of year, I think
it's a thing, and then playing the Atlanta Falcons, that's
the thing. You just put up five hundred and eighty
yards on the Seattle Seahawks defense, and now you're gonna
go up against Raheem Morris, someone you're very familiar with,
who really has only had good games this year defensively
when he can confuse the other opponent, when they can
(08:15):
send all sorts of blitzes and they get really creative.
Just try it against Matthew Stafford. He's seen it all before.
Sean McVay kind of knows what's coming. And they're gonna
have perfect conditions there in the Dome, not much of
a home field advantage. I don't believe in Atlanta and
a team that really needs to win the game, and
I think they'd love to make a statement and like
(08:37):
rest guys in the fourth quarter of this game. And
that's how good I think that they are. So good
luck trying to convince him. And also it's on Monday night,
little MVP magic here. And on the flip side, it's
like Kirk Cousins has been good, but he's only been
good when he hasn't faced much much pressure, and I
think he will face some pressure, so they're seven and
a half point favorites. I thought it'd be a little more. Frankly,
(08:59):
I just I don't think the Falcons. I know they've
won six games and they're not one of the worst
teams in the league or anything. But at this point
in the season, I would take ten for the Rams
and feel fine about it.
Speaker 2 (09:10):
Yeah. No, I think that could get bit up too,
and I'd be comfortable with it, all right. My last
one New England, Yes.
Speaker 1 (09:16):
That was one where like if it was actually we're
not allowed to bet not and I love that for us,
although this year it would have been profitable for me.
But if it was actually my money, I think I
would maybe go with that. But it didn't seem as
interesting to me. It almost just seemed seemed too weaky.
Speaker 2 (09:34):
What would you bid it up?
Speaker 1 (09:34):
Too?
Speaker 2 (09:36):
So like where is it? What are you seeing?
Speaker 1 (09:38):
Like sixteen and a half? It's at thirteen and a
half right now?
Speaker 2 (09:40):
Yeah, so sub fourteen that's crazy. So to me, I
would have bit it up probably sixteen something that would
be more comfortable like that. Like I so when you
see the differential of three points like tasty.
Speaker 1 (09:54):
Especially for your conservative model, and I have a number
that big yes, what is the Brady Cook factor in
your model?
Speaker 2 (10:01):
Unfortunately, for Brady Cook, it's the problem with the problem
that he has is that there's a lot of great
pieces of this New England defense that are maybe even
a little bit underrated, like Kayleevon Chase On, Like, we
don't talk about him enough, although his name is fun
to say, so we should. But you know, he was
a bargain and coming off the edge he's done great.
Speaker 1 (10:17):
You know he might come back there by the way,
Milton Williams.
Speaker 2 (10:21):
I wasn't even I didn't. I was doing this without
even factoring Milton Williams. And and he was their big money.
They were very spendy on him and it paid off.
Speaker 1 (10:28):
So I don't know.
Speaker 2 (10:29):
I just think this. This is a not to say
that the Jets don't have anything to play for, but
like these whole team.
Speaker 1 (10:34):
I mean they don't. No team is truly tanking harder
than the Jets. Now they put Brock Bauers on injured reserve, right,
that would be much lower on my list. The Raiders game.
But here's what that's a little bit of a tank move.
But playing Brady Cook is a tank move. They could Taylor.
Speaker 2 (10:51):
But think about it. The Raiders, Pete Carroll, Pete Carroll,
He's gonna try. Yeah, I'm staying with car Stay the
heck away from anything to do with Pete Carroll and
the Giants just don't do it. Yes, I guess that
could that one coin flip fifty truly a fifty to
fifty to me.
Speaker 1 (11:06):
Here's a great stat about the Jets that I had
ready and go I los it was my pick. In
the last three weeks, they have been outscored one hundred
and eleven to thirty six. That is an average of
twenty five points. And it's not like one week was
forty and the other was ten. No, they were all
twenty two and above for three straight weeks. And two
of those games were against teams were that were well
(11:28):
under five hundred, so they weren't even good teams. The
Jags beat them up too, and they're a good team.
But yeah, I think the Pat's killed all right. My
last one is one of those teams that beat up
on the Jets a couple weeks back. It is the
Miami Dolphins plus five and a half. Let's get frisky
with Quinn viewers. In Week seventeen over the Bucks, don't
doubt me. Although I do lose one every week, it's
(11:50):
usually two and one, not three and zero. But I've
had a winning week twelve straight weeks. Quinn eewers in
that game and this one I wouldn't feel comfort about
if I didn't go back and watch it. I thought
he played find They had three straight turnovers in the
third quarter. Maybe one was his fault, but the other
was a fluky tip. The other was a fumble by
(12:12):
you know, one of his teammates, and the other was
just they got stuffed on a fourth and one. And
when I talked about the death wish, I just got
bad vibes about this Bucks team, And so I'm taking the.
Speaker 2 (12:23):
You have worse vibes about the Bucks than the Dolphins.
Speaker 1 (12:26):
No, but the Bucks.
Speaker 2 (12:28):
But the bad vibes have already passed, Like the Dolphins
have already absorbed their bad vibes. Now they're in a
post bad vibe world.
Speaker 1 (12:36):
It's more that close. Late in games, they're playing like
Baker Mayfield plays just a little frenetic, and I can
see them winning this game. I initially picked them to
win this game, but five and a half is just
a lot for me for a team that doesn't do
anything well right now, if you kind of look at
all their underlying metrics, like you do, run defense is okay,
(12:58):
but I don't think they'll be good on the outside.
They're slower against Devon a Chan. Everything else is below average,
like run offense, run passing offense, passing defense, especially like
they're just a mediocre team. These to me, are two
mediocre teams. The Bucks are like two and seven in
their last nine games.
Speaker 2 (13:14):
I know it's not good.
Speaker 1 (13:15):
That's pretty brutal. And the Dolphins they're okay. So to me,
this is like one of those coin flip games. That's
how I see it. And so the fact that I'm
getting five and a half means I'll take the five
and a half and it means on game debut. Since
I truly do believe in my heart it's a coin
flip game, I might as well just take the Dolphins
to win.
Speaker 2 (13:32):
Because we only count the straight ups as are.
Speaker 1 (13:34):
And because you and Patrick are taking me to the
woodshed this year.
Speaker 2 (13:37):
So that's why we should. You should do it.
Speaker 1 (13:38):
It's a good strategy. I'm doing much better against the
spread than I am straight up, so it's awesome. That's it.
We made it.
Speaker 2 (13:45):
We did it. Thank you so much, Chris.
Speaker 1 (13:47):
Cynthia, you are the best. Like I said, check out numbers.
Speaker 2 (13:51):
So you guys all know you think he's cool when
you listen to him on this podcast, he's nobody thinks
that ten times better in real life.
Speaker 1 (13:58):
You know what Cynthia did though, she baked eleven different
types of cookies. She spent an entire day, entire week
and brought in eleven different types of selections of cookies
for everyone in makeup and hair and production to have.
And that's the kind of woman that Cynthia's. All right,
(14:19):
we got to get you to your in laws. Merry
Christmas to you, Cynthia and to everyone listening. We will
be back in the audio feed in on YouTube this week. Yes,
I'm calling it.
Speaker 2 (14:30):
I'm calling my shot.
Speaker 1 (14:31):
We're gonna talk about the Christmas games. We're gonna recap that.
I'm gonna have Will Gavin from Talk Sport. We'll do
that on Friday afternoon, So have a look for that
and we will see that
Host
Gregg Rosenthal
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