October 5, 2024 • 19 mins
Gregg and Cynthia Frelund are back for another week of Man vs Model head-to-head pick battle. Our duo dive right into their week 5 picks. First, Cynthia takes us to the Pacific Northwest for a big NFC battle (2:00). Next, Gregg gives us his first pick as we hear about a big SNF match up that's right around the corner (3:20). We then head to Chicago as Cynthia gives us her 2nd pick (5:14). Following that, Gregg takes us to Arrowhead Stadium for his 2nd pick (7:30). And finally, Cynthia sends us to Foxborough for her final pick (11:20) and Gregg tells us why he's still a BILLIEVER (12:45). Plus we hear Gregg's extra box picks (16:20).
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:09):
Welcome to NFL Daily, where we tried to learn from
our mistakes like pegging against the chiefs in Arrowhead.
Speaker 2 (00:16):
Just bit on that in just a minute.
Speaker 1 (00:18):
Yes, I am here in the Chris Wesleyan podcast studio
with my friend Cynthia Freeland. This is our weekly picks
man versus Model your computer model, but the first time
we've done it in the studio, and it just it
feels right.
Speaker 3 (00:33):
Cynthia, Yeah, I mean it was a little awkward.
Speaker 4 (00:35):
We were like sort of sitting like in a way
that was very unnatural before, but now it feels very
I feel like, you know, I've got a good space
around me. It's just good. Like the vibes are strong.
Things are good.
Speaker 1 (00:47):
The vibes are strong. Cynthia's got her glasses on, which
she doesn't even need. She just wears them to look smarter,
which is preposterous. People can check that out on YouTube.
But we're going to go through the picks first. The
bad news. We both went one and two last week.
Moving on, let's get to this week's pick. I feel
good last week. I went into it. I gotta admit
I wasn't confident, Like I wasn't like loving my picks.
(01:08):
The one pick we had together was Seattle plus three
and a half.
Speaker 2 (01:12):
And you know we tape this. That was a Monday
night football game.
Speaker 1 (01:15):
We have to be a little careful because we don't
know the full injury reports and they ended up missing
five defensive starters out Like, are we drawing dead here?
Speaker 2 (01:23):
So that was one and two. We'll get to the
extra picks later.
Speaker 1 (01:25):
I feel great about my picks this week, so I
will let you go first because I'm sticking with the
three I have. There's no indecision. These are three winners.
So if you happen to pick the same ones, I'll
just jump on board with you.
Speaker 4 (01:37):
Well really quick before we start. How did the box do?
That's what America needs.
Speaker 2 (01:41):
Box went one and one, which are my extra picks?
Speaker 3 (01:43):
Okay, yeah, the boxes. The boxes crushed.
Speaker 2 (01:45):
The box is eleven and three this year. Okay.
Speaker 4 (01:47):
So for my very first pick, did you like that
that we had to make it a little bit dramatic here.
I'm going to take Seattle to win by at least
a touchdown I think right now at six and a half.
But I like a nice strong win against the Giants.
I think a bounce back situation. We saw that Kenneth
Walker is crushing life. Funny thing here that the New
(02:08):
York Giants are one of three teams that have only
allowed one rushing touchdown. I don't care Kenneth Walker, that's
gonna he's gonna change that this week.
Speaker 3 (02:15):
But I think this is a good one.
Speaker 4 (02:16):
And by the way, DK Metcalf very almost quietly has
had three games in a row of over one hundred
receiving yards, like that is a Seahawk record. That's really great.
We aren't talking about that enough. So you know, gino,
let's go.
Speaker 1 (02:30):
Yes, there's mismatches all over the place against this Giant secondary.
They don't have a number one cornerback, like who they
gonna put Deontay Banks against ddk Metcalf and then it
gets a lot worse from there.
Speaker 2 (02:41):
I don't know if dor Jackson is gonna play in
this game.
Speaker 1 (02:43):
Initially my instinct was that's a lot of points, like
the Giants aren't that bad of a one and three team,
And then as we tape this, it's uncertain. But it's
not looking good for Molik Neighbors and that Giants offense
without Malik Neighbors. It does sound like some Seattle defenders
will be back. Not all we'll see, so some injury
concerns here, but I like Seattle, they are not one
(03:05):
of my considerations. I am going with Ravens minus two
and a half as my first overall selection here. Sometimes
you don't need to get too complicated. This is the
number one offense in the league efficiency according to DVOA.
According to like EPA per play that they're running attack
(03:26):
is awesome. And it's against a defense that can't tackle
week after week, that can't set the edge like Chuba
Hubbard's getting to the edge, Miles Sanders is getting to
the edge. You don't think Lamar Jackson and Derek Henry's
going to get to the edge against this defense. And
so that to me is such a mismatch. And then
when I think about the other side of the ball, Yes,
the Bengals offense is playing, well, that's the case. Like
(03:49):
against this it's at home, it's a division game, there's familiarity.
There was some success for the Bengals in the past
in this matchup, although the Ravens did win both games
last year. But then I look at the schedule that
the Bengals offense has played against this year. It's the
twenty eighth easiest schedule for opposing offenses, that their offense
(04:10):
is paid for opposing defenses. You know Panthers last week,
like it's been a lot of easy matchups for them.
It's a big step up against the Ravens. I just
think this is a wagon. I think this is one
of those matchups. If it was in Week twelve, it
would be five points because at that point we know
the Bengals are a decent but flawed team with no defense,
(04:30):
and we know that the Ravens are one of the
best teams in the league, and that's what I believe
them to be. So I think this is a good
value two and a half. I love me some Ravens.
Speaker 4 (04:38):
How far would you go with that? Because I'm with
you at two and a half? Some places I've seen
it's like three or four. Sure, I hate but whatever.
Speaker 2 (04:45):
Would I would just go? I feel this. I feel this.
Speaker 1 (04:48):
I feel like Lamar Jackson rushing totals like I feel it.
This team they're soft, they can't tackle, bad defense. Their
linebacker with Jermaine prattz slow. Okay, that's enough.
Speaker 2 (04:58):
On the Raves, thats a lot.
Speaker 1 (05:00):
I just feel good. That was like my favorite maybe
my favorite one of the years.
Speaker 4 (05:03):
I'm glad that you got that off your chest. Psyche
feels like the rain Maker is out for free Baltimore Maker.
Speaker 2 (05:09):
I love it.
Speaker 3 (05:10):
What I told you, I hate the number four.
Speaker 4 (05:11):
However, my next pick is a line that's at four,
which is Chicago. I think they win over Carolina by
more than that.
Speaker 3 (05:17):
At home.
Speaker 4 (05:18):
Chicago has a very nice home win streak going, which
I don't actually care about it all in terms of
predicting the game, but it is fun to tell people.
I also think that, look, if you're looking at this defense,
the Carolina defense, and you're thinking where am I going
to find a source of success? Every time it's like
Jack Thompson, Oh no, he's hurt too, Derek Brown, like
they just keep getting so injured along that defense. That
(05:40):
this is an opportunity for Caleb Williams to turn around
some of his statistics on deep passing, downfield passing so
ten plus AREAAR twenty plus area. He hasn't been particularly
great on those yet. Maybe this is a situation where
he won't be under so much pressure that he could
actually complete.
Speaker 3 (05:54):
Some of those.
Speaker 4 (05:55):
DJ Moore loves revenge. I don't actually know if that's true,
but we're gonna say it is. But you know, there's
just a number of ways here that I think it's
going to be very hard for Carolina to you know
that just to me, that just means a touchdown.
Speaker 3 (06:07):
It doesn't mean four points. Might as well be five
and a half.
Speaker 1 (06:09):
Year surely, I didn't know what to think about this game,
but I think you're right that this Panthers defense is
going to be one of the worst in the league.
When I watched that Bengals Panthers game last week, for instance,
like I don't even know if the Bengals did that
much that well in this game in that game, but
they were completing short, easy passes. Kayleb Williams did that
well last week. It was almost like they were starting
(06:31):
back over with him.
Speaker 3 (06:32):
He did it well.
Speaker 4 (06:32):
Yeah, fifteen to fifteen on ten plus area AR or
under ten are passes.
Speaker 3 (06:37):
So that's pretty good.
Speaker 4 (06:38):
And then if you look at what Andy Dalton has
always done well in his career is what quick passes. Yeah, right,
and the Bears are actually like fifth or sixth best
at limiting yards from quick passes. So it just is
a bad mismatch for you know, the for the Panthers
and it's in at Soldier Field, which I don't know.
I think those Bears fans want they want if they
could like have anything to be like may Caleb Williams.
Speaker 1 (07:00):
Well, yeah, just be patient, right, No, we're all rooting
for you. Yes, I'm going to see the Bears in
London next week, and so I want to win here.
Speaker 2 (07:10):
Get to three and two.
Speaker 1 (07:11):
Give me a little Caleb Williams pop because we know
the Jags they're not really providing the pop in that
in that Jags Bears matchup.
Speaker 2 (07:17):
So let's go Caleb Williams.
Speaker 1 (07:19):
I think they get a win, and I think Andy
Dalton has played really well getting rid of the ball quickly.
But you're right, this is by far the toughest matchup
he's had against a very good secondary.
Speaker 2 (07:29):
So I like that pick.
Speaker 1 (07:30):
No crossover here, Okay, I'm going Saints plus five and
a half.
Speaker 3 (07:34):
Like that one a lot.
Speaker 1 (07:35):
Now on Game Deay View, which look you can you
could DVR it, you can save it. It's on Friday mornings,
on Sunday mornings. It's all over the place. It's our
show on NFL Network. I'm taking the Saints straight up. Now,
do I feel incredibly confident about them winning an Arrowhead. No,
I do not, although I think the money line would
be fun in this one too, But for our purposes,
we're picking against the spread.
Speaker 2 (07:55):
And I love me some five and a half here.
Speaker 1 (07:58):
Now I've made this mistake before going against Patrick Mahomes
in Arrowhead. But five and a half points it's essentially
a touchdown. Yeah, Nine out of their last ten wins
are by one score, which is you know it's under seven,
So five and a half that's great. Then you look
at the underlying numbers. At some point you have to
(08:19):
just trust who's playing better so far this year. Saints
like third in DVA, Kansas City twelfth EPA per play,
Kansas City right in the middle, thirteenth, fourteenth offense defense,
Saints fifth fourth. Now that's getting boosted by those first
couple weeks where the.
Speaker 4 (08:33):
Carolina was a little bit of a booster. Yeah, was
a ego booster as a slumpbuster for.
Speaker 1 (08:37):
The absolutely last week even Yeah, they score three offensive touchdowns,
They don't give up any Their defense is a legit
defense for sure. Now the case against it, of course,
is they find stupid ways to lose. Both these teams
went to Atlanta, for instance, I thought New Orleans looked
much more dominant in their game. They found a way
to lose. The Chiefs found a way to win, and
that's why that's where the five and a half points
(08:59):
come in. I really do believe the Saints are a
better team. They just happened to have Patrick Mahomes not
playing well and Andy Reid and the other team is
Derek Carr and Dennis All And I'm going to talk
myself out of this before it's too long, but I
really do think the Saints are a better team. They're
going to get healthier. I think on the defensive side
of the ball. Hopefully Taysom Hill is back for their often.
Speaker 4 (09:18):
That's the lynch pin for me for the five and
a half. That's it, the Taysom Hill.
Speaker 1 (09:22):
Really yes, I mean the numbers are crazy that when
he's been out there this year, but maybe he just
was out there in the easier matchups. So yeah, keep
an eye on the Taysom Hill injury report stuff.
Speaker 4 (09:34):
I can absolutely guarantee one thing in this game though, yes,
that after the game, the coach of the team that's
facing the Saints is not going to say stats.
Speaker 3 (09:41):
Are for losers.
Speaker 2 (09:44):
All right, yeah, that was you know like Kelsey right
did that?
Speaker 3 (09:48):
No, No, that was that was Raheem Morris.
Speaker 1 (09:50):
So last week, Oh that's right, Jason Kelcey repeated it
and then went on another rant, which is hilarious.
Speaker 4 (09:58):
The one thing I do really like in this game,
I think it's a really low total.
Speaker 3 (10:02):
It's forty two and a half.
Speaker 4 (10:03):
I know both of these defenses are what's driving that,
but that's still a really low number. I understand the Chiefs.
They haven't bes worriing ton of points. We've seen the
Saints kind of go back and forth. But I think
if you look at where like the part of the
Saints defense that has been like generous in terms of
air yards per target, aer yards per reception, that's where
tight ends run, they've been generous to the tight end vision.
(10:24):
So I do think that the surprises the score could
be a little bit higher than that.
Speaker 1 (10:28):
So the Chiefs, this is their first game where they
go into it knowing they don't have Rashid Rice, who's
on MYR although his time to return is undefined right now,
it might not be a season ending injury, which which
is very interesting. They don't have Pa Checko this is
a slow offense with Kareem Hunt and Travis Kelce out there.
(10:49):
I like Alante Taylor in the slot. I like all
the different guys.
Speaker 3 (10:52):
They're Lonnny Taylor everywhere.
Speaker 1 (10:54):
They're not going to get great pass rush on Mahomes,
but that really hasn't been the case all year for
teams playing the Chiefs, and they're still not getting the
I think this is a secondary that can stick with
these guys on longer developing plays. So I really like
this one too. I like all my picks this week.
I'm feeling good if if I go one and two
this week like I did last like, I will have
(11:15):
a Mia Kolpa, I will apologize. I think I think
the rally starts now minimum two in one. I'm feeling
maybe a three and oh week. All right, what's your
what's your last one?
Speaker 4 (11:24):
I actually think right as of right now, New England
is favored by one point in that game. But there's
no Kyle Dugger, there's still you know, there's still Tyreek Hill,
There's still There's just a lot of things. And this
is a defense that Mike McDaniel is very, very familiar
with the structure of the defense, how it works, what
goes on and just rushing against them. And by the way,
unfortunately for the Patriots they lost their center too. This
(11:46):
is also a team who's already been getting gashed in
the middle of that O line. So I just think
the wrong team's favored. So I'll go ahead and take
the point because I think Miami wins this game.
Speaker 1 (11:54):
I took Miami in this game too. I think that's
a good pick. David Andrews is a huge lie for them,
already the worst offensive line in the league, a team
I think that Miami can look at and think, man,
all of our problems, like we're not getting much edge rush.
This is a matchup maybe where we can but we
can certainly get some push up the middle play as
Campbell and Zack Seeler, And I think you hit the
(12:16):
nail on the head with the matchup that McDaniel feels
comfortable with. They've almost been playing scared the last couple
of weeks. They might not The Patriots might not have
Jabrill Peppers in this game. You know, Christian Barmore is
long gone at this point, Matt Jwan Benny was, yet
Jawan Bentley was the guy calling the signals. It has
not been a good defense, and so I do think
(12:37):
Miami looks at this matchup and thinks, man, we can
actually just find a win here. It'll be close, it'll
they'll ugly it up the Patriots.
Speaker 2 (12:45):
But I'm with you. I think the Dolphins win. Not
one of my picks, though.
Speaker 4 (12:47):
Oh I like that we're different. Glad just we're covering
the whole league.
Speaker 1 (12:51):
Glad that you're not taking this one for me. I
love the Bills on the road in Houston. I usually
don't go for these like pick them type games where
it's two good teams, but I think the Bills are
a step above. And look, I had the Bills winning
the Super Bowl. I had them losing last week. I've
been on the Bills. Yeah, this is one team I
(13:12):
got a feel for. I think they're a top five
or six team in the NFL. I don't think Houston
is there yet. I like good teams coming off bad losses.
I don't care about the numbers. I don't know if
there's any numbers to that, but like a really good
team coming off of a loss, I like them rebounding
and then what's the way to beat the Bills. I
think the Ravens showed it last week. That's a bad
matchup problem to be more physical than them up front,
(13:33):
to push them around a little bit. They're a little
they're a little lighter in the pants the Bills on defense,
but they get Terrell Bernard back this week, apparently Toron Johnson.
At least they're practicing, so it looks good. The Texans
can't run the ball like we thought the Texans were
going to be able to run the ball. First week
of the season, they could, Joe Mixon gets hurt. Last
three weeks, they're right back to last year. Then I
(13:54):
look at the other side of the ball in the trenches.
Offensive line for the Bills has been awesome.
Speaker 3 (13:58):
Lead Dian Back.
Speaker 2 (14:00):
We don't know if Dean Dawkins is playing a huge deal.
Speaker 3 (14:02):
That left tackle is like the that is huge.
Speaker 2 (14:04):
Absolutely huge.
Speaker 1 (14:06):
But you know what, Will Anderson and Daniel Hunter haven't
been blowing up game plans this week, and I think
you can survive without one good offensive lineman. You can
help out their backup left tackle. The rest of the
line is really good. So I think they're winning the
games upfront on both sides of the ball. I think
they're winning those battles. I like the Bills a lot
(14:26):
minus one. I think the Texans have been more rickety
than their record suggests. They win these last second games
against the Colts and the Jaguars, and that's great, that's
a great young win, you know, wins for young quarterbacks.
Speaker 2 (14:39):
But I think the Bills are ready for this.
Speaker 4 (14:41):
So to me, this game is it feels foggy for
a couple of reasons. Number One, they lost von Miller
on defense. He's suspended, so that makes a big difference.
Number Two, I don't know. This injury report reads to
me like, you know, what's that game you play with
your kids? Were like, does he wear glasses? Guess who?
I'm just like, I don't even know who's playing at
(15:01):
this point. So I don't have a great feel on
this one. And then further, if the Texans were to
clean up their penalties, they have the most in the league.
They have forty total twenty six on offense.
Speaker 3 (15:13):
Yo, that's bad.
Speaker 4 (15:15):
If you were to clean that up just a little bit,
you're putting yourself in a much better situation. So it's
just hard when the problem is penalties, Like, I don't
know how you fix that, But I also know that
that's been.
Speaker 1 (15:26):
Sloppy and Eco concept individually made up for it, but
they've operations been sloppy.
Speaker 2 (15:32):
Yeah, but it's lacking.
Speaker 4 (15:33):
But what if you get it together this week and
then maybe Terrell Bernard or whatever they are not one
hundred percent.
Speaker 3 (15:39):
That's just the thing where I.
Speaker 4 (15:40):
Feel like and I'm just like, uh, what am I
looking at here?
Speaker 1 (15:44):
You know?
Speaker 4 (15:44):
Like I and I'm very familiar with the bills, and
I'm very familiar with the text, but extremely familiar with
the bills. Okay, it's like, you know who's playing safety? Like,
are we is Taylor Rapp?
Speaker 3 (15:52):
Okay? Is he gonna play?
Speaker 4 (15:53):
Like?
Speaker 2 (15:53):
I think Taylor Rep's probably missing this game? Yeah, there are.
Speaker 3 (15:56):
There's just likely a good feel.
Speaker 1 (15:58):
Don't I don't feel good going on the whole operation.
I'm going like Josh Allen. I love Josh MVP season.
So we're on opposite sides there, But that's not one
of your three picks. We're both coming off one in
two weeks. We're the man if I am that and
the computer model. We're tied so far, but we're under
five hundred. We need to we need to rally. If
(16:19):
you have any others that you just kind of like
you could throw them out. But yes, you mentioned the box,
and so every every week I have the box. I
have the teams that make make my top picks, and
for some reason, my extra picks are eleven and three.
Speaker 2 (16:35):
Yes, we went one and.
Speaker 1 (16:36):
Two last week, but the extra picks are eleven and three,
only one in one last week. Though I like the
Vikings in London, the more I thought about it, like
the less I've liked it. That was going to be
one of my picks early in the week, and I
just the more I thought about it. Aaron Rodgers is
playing really well, but I do think a team that
has protection problems the Jets identifying the free rushers and
all that against Brian Brian Floores, and then the Jets
(16:58):
defense hasn't played anyone. I'm I'm not sure about this
Jets defense. They've played the Titans, the Patriots, and the
Broncos back to back to back. I think there could
be issues there against the run. So I kind of
like the Vikings, I like the Commanders, like the Commanders.
Speaker 3 (17:10):
I like the Commanders a lot. That was going to
be one of mine.
Speaker 4 (17:13):
I just don't like the number three because then you
can push and like that seems like it's crappy for
our results. I also like Pittsburgh two and a half
at home against the Cowboys, who are.
Speaker 2 (17:21):
With that one is to be the biggest history box game.
Speaker 3 (17:24):
Parsons, Marcus Lawrence, gone gone.
Speaker 4 (17:26):
They're already tied for allowing like the most rushing first downs.
Speaker 2 (17:29):
In the league.
Speaker 1 (17:30):
But now we're favoring justin fields and a pretty I'm
not over and I love fields.
Speaker 2 (17:35):
But over Dak. To me, that's just a toss up,
and I just want to stay away from.
Speaker 4 (17:40):
No, I'm justin fields against a very banged up defense
compared to Dak Prescott versus a really mean defense.
Speaker 3 (17:47):
Okay, that's kind of how I view it. Like it's not.
Speaker 2 (17:49):
If I had to pick one, i'd be on your side.
Speaker 1 (17:51):
I'd take the Steelers, but that one I just kind
of want to watch and enjoy the uniform matchup in
the history. And so yeah, in the box this week,
my my repicks would be Minnesota minus two and a half,
Washington minus three and a half or three, depending on
where you look. And I actually was on the opposite side.
Now that you kind of convinced me out of it,
I'm crossing it out. I had Carolina written down, and
(18:13):
you convinced me out of it.
Speaker 2 (18:14):
I have to admit, I'm so it's good.
Speaker 3 (18:15):
I'm sorry if we're wrong, I'm really sorry.
Speaker 2 (18:17):
I know it's okay because it's.
Speaker 4 (18:19):
The box actually makes me feel better because everything in
that box feels luckier.
Speaker 2 (18:23):
It has been luckier. But so I'm only going with
two there.
Speaker 1 (18:25):
It's Minnesota and Washington because you made a compelling case
against and I want to root for the Bears to
win this game easily.
Speaker 2 (18:32):
Yeah in Caleb Williams.
Speaker 3 (18:33):
Yeah, because then in luck it will be way more fun.
Speaker 1 (18:35):
Thank you all for listening all week long on the podcast.
We really appreciate you leave some reviews. Yeah, we give
us a few stars. I just love this community we're
building and everyone that has been enjoying the shows. We
will be back on Sunday night to recap all the games,
(18:57):
including that Bear Name game and the Bears winning big.
Speaker 2 (19:01):
When the games are in London, you know football is back.
I can't see you next day.
Welcome to NFL Daily, where we tried to learn from
our mistakes like pegging against the chiefs in Arrowhead.
Speaker 2 (00:16):
Just bit on that in just a minute.
Speaker 1 (00:18):
Yes, I am here in the Chris Wesleyan podcast studio
with my friend Cynthia Freeland. This is our weekly picks
man versus Model your computer model, but the first time
we've done it in the studio, and it just it
feels right.
Speaker 3 (00:33):
Cynthia, Yeah, I mean it was a little awkward.
Speaker 4 (00:35):
We were like sort of sitting like in a way
that was very unnatural before, but now it feels very
I feel like, you know, I've got a good space
around me. It's just good. Like the vibes are strong.
Things are good.
Speaker 1 (00:47):
The vibes are strong. Cynthia's got her glasses on, which
she doesn't even need. She just wears them to look smarter,
which is preposterous. People can check that out on YouTube.
But we're going to go through the picks first. The
bad news. We both went one and two last week.
Moving on, let's get to this week's pick. I feel
good last week. I went into it. I gotta admit
I wasn't confident, Like I wasn't like loving my picks.
(01:08):
The one pick we had together was Seattle plus three
and a half.
Speaker 2 (01:12):
And you know we tape this. That was a Monday
night football game.
Speaker 1 (01:15):
We have to be a little careful because we don't
know the full injury reports and they ended up missing
five defensive starters out Like, are we drawing dead here?
Speaker 2 (01:23):
So that was one and two. We'll get to the
extra picks later.
Speaker 1 (01:25):
I feel great about my picks this week, so I
will let you go first because I'm sticking with the
three I have. There's no indecision. These are three winners.
So if you happen to pick the same ones, I'll
just jump on board with you.
Speaker 4 (01:37):
Well really quick before we start. How did the box do?
That's what America needs.
Speaker 2 (01:41):
Box went one and one, which are my extra picks?
Speaker 3 (01:43):
Okay, yeah, the boxes. The boxes crushed.
Speaker 2 (01:45):
The box is eleven and three this year. Okay.
Speaker 4 (01:47):
So for my very first pick, did you like that
that we had to make it a little bit dramatic here.
I'm going to take Seattle to win by at least
a touchdown I think right now at six and a half.
But I like a nice strong win against the Giants.
I think a bounce back situation. We saw that Kenneth
Walker is crushing life. Funny thing here that the New
(02:08):
York Giants are one of three teams that have only
allowed one rushing touchdown. I don't care Kenneth Walker, that's
gonna he's gonna change that this week.
Speaker 3 (02:15):
But I think this is a good one.
Speaker 4 (02:16):
And by the way, DK Metcalf very almost quietly has
had three games in a row of over one hundred
receiving yards, like that is a Seahawk record. That's really great.
We aren't talking about that enough. So you know, gino,
let's go.
Speaker 1 (02:30):
Yes, there's mismatches all over the place against this Giant secondary.
They don't have a number one cornerback, like who they
gonna put Deontay Banks against ddk Metcalf and then it
gets a lot worse from there.
Speaker 2 (02:41):
I don't know if dor Jackson is gonna play in
this game.
Speaker 1 (02:43):
Initially my instinct was that's a lot of points, like
the Giants aren't that bad of a one and three team,
And then as we tape this, it's uncertain. But it's
not looking good for Molik Neighbors and that Giants offense
without Malik Neighbors. It does sound like some Seattle defenders
will be back. Not all we'll see, so some injury
concerns here, but I like Seattle, they are not one
(03:05):
of my considerations. I am going with Ravens minus two
and a half as my first overall selection here. Sometimes
you don't need to get too complicated. This is the
number one offense in the league efficiency according to DVOA.
According to like EPA per play that they're running attack
(03:26):
is awesome. And it's against a defense that can't tackle
week after week, that can't set the edge like Chuba
Hubbard's getting to the edge, Miles Sanders is getting to
the edge. You don't think Lamar Jackson and Derek Henry's
going to get to the edge against this defense. And
so that to me is such a mismatch. And then
when I think about the other side of the ball, Yes,
the Bengals offense is playing, well, that's the case. Like
(03:49):
against this it's at home, it's a division game, there's familiarity.
There was some success for the Bengals in the past
in this matchup, although the Ravens did win both games
last year. But then I look at the schedule that
the Bengals offense has played against this year. It's the
twenty eighth easiest schedule for opposing offenses, that their offense
(04:10):
is paid for opposing defenses. You know Panthers last week,
like it's been a lot of easy matchups for them.
It's a big step up against the Ravens. I just
think this is a wagon. I think this is one
of those matchups. If it was in Week twelve, it
would be five points because at that point we know
the Bengals are a decent but flawed team with no defense,
(04:30):
and we know that the Ravens are one of the
best teams in the league, and that's what I believe
them to be. So I think this is a good
value two and a half. I love me some Ravens.
Speaker 4 (04:38):
How far would you go with that? Because I'm with
you at two and a half? Some places I've seen
it's like three or four. Sure, I hate but whatever.
Speaker 2 (04:45):
Would I would just go? I feel this. I feel this.
Speaker 1 (04:48):
I feel like Lamar Jackson rushing totals like I feel it.
This team they're soft, they can't tackle, bad defense. Their
linebacker with Jermaine prattz slow. Okay, that's enough.
Speaker 2 (04:58):
On the Raves, thats a lot.
Speaker 1 (05:00):
I just feel good. That was like my favorite maybe
my favorite one of the years.
Speaker 4 (05:03):
I'm glad that you got that off your chest. Psyche
feels like the rain Maker is out for free Baltimore Maker.
Speaker 2 (05:09):
I love it.
Speaker 3 (05:10):
What I told you, I hate the number four.
Speaker 4 (05:11):
However, my next pick is a line that's at four,
which is Chicago. I think they win over Carolina by
more than that.
Speaker 3 (05:17):
At home.
Speaker 4 (05:18):
Chicago has a very nice home win streak going, which
I don't actually care about it all in terms of
predicting the game, but it is fun to tell people.
I also think that, look, if you're looking at this defense,
the Carolina defense, and you're thinking where am I going
to find a source of success? Every time it's like
Jack Thompson, Oh no, he's hurt too, Derek Brown, like
they just keep getting so injured along that defense. That
(05:40):
this is an opportunity for Caleb Williams to turn around
some of his statistics on deep passing, downfield passing so
ten plus AREAAR twenty plus area. He hasn't been particularly
great on those yet. Maybe this is a situation where
he won't be under so much pressure that he could
actually complete.
Speaker 3 (05:54):
Some of those.
Speaker 4 (05:55):
DJ Moore loves revenge. I don't actually know if that's true,
but we're gonna say it is. But you know, there's
just a number of ways here that I think it's
going to be very hard for Carolina to you know
that just to me, that just means a touchdown.
Speaker 3 (06:07):
It doesn't mean four points. Might as well be five
and a half.
Speaker 1 (06:09):
Year surely, I didn't know what to think about this game,
but I think you're right that this Panthers defense is
going to be one of the worst in the league.
When I watched that Bengals Panthers game last week, for instance,
like I don't even know if the Bengals did that
much that well in this game in that game, but
they were completing short, easy passes. Kayleb Williams did that
well last week. It was almost like they were starting
(06:31):
back over with him.
Speaker 3 (06:32):
He did it well.
Speaker 4 (06:32):
Yeah, fifteen to fifteen on ten plus area AR or
under ten are passes.
Speaker 3 (06:37):
So that's pretty good.
Speaker 4 (06:38):
And then if you look at what Andy Dalton has
always done well in his career is what quick passes. Yeah, right,
and the Bears are actually like fifth or sixth best
at limiting yards from quick passes. So it just is
a bad mismatch for you know, the for the Panthers
and it's in at Soldier Field, which I don't know.
I think those Bears fans want they want if they
could like have anything to be like may Caleb Williams.
Speaker 1 (07:00):
Well, yeah, just be patient, right, No, we're all rooting
for you. Yes, I'm going to see the Bears in
London next week, and so I want to win here.
Speaker 2 (07:10):
Get to three and two.
Speaker 1 (07:11):
Give me a little Caleb Williams pop because we know
the Jags they're not really providing the pop in that
in that Jags Bears matchup.
Speaker 2 (07:17):
So let's go Caleb Williams.
Speaker 1 (07:19):
I think they get a win, and I think Andy
Dalton has played really well getting rid of the ball quickly.
But you're right, this is by far the toughest matchup
he's had against a very good secondary.
Speaker 2 (07:29):
So I like that pick.
Speaker 1 (07:30):
No crossover here, Okay, I'm going Saints plus five and
a half.
Speaker 3 (07:34):
Like that one a lot.
Speaker 1 (07:35):
Now on Game Deay View, which look you can you
could DVR it, you can save it. It's on Friday mornings,
on Sunday mornings. It's all over the place. It's our
show on NFL Network. I'm taking the Saints straight up. Now,
do I feel incredibly confident about them winning an Arrowhead. No,
I do not, although I think the money line would
be fun in this one too, But for our purposes,
we're picking against the spread.
Speaker 2 (07:55):
And I love me some five and a half here.
Speaker 1 (07:58):
Now I've made this mistake before going against Patrick Mahomes
in Arrowhead. But five and a half points it's essentially
a touchdown. Yeah, Nine out of their last ten wins
are by one score, which is you know it's under seven,
So five and a half that's great. Then you look
at the underlying numbers. At some point you have to
(08:19):
just trust who's playing better so far this year. Saints
like third in DVA, Kansas City twelfth EPA per play,
Kansas City right in the middle, thirteenth, fourteenth offense defense,
Saints fifth fourth. Now that's getting boosted by those first
couple weeks where the.
Speaker 4 (08:33):
Carolina was a little bit of a booster. Yeah, was
a ego booster as a slumpbuster for.
Speaker 1 (08:37):
The absolutely last week even Yeah, they score three offensive touchdowns,
They don't give up any Their defense is a legit
defense for sure. Now the case against it, of course,
is they find stupid ways to lose. Both these teams
went to Atlanta, for instance, I thought New Orleans looked
much more dominant in their game. They found a way
to lose. The Chiefs found a way to win, and
that's why that's where the five and a half points
(08:59):
come in. I really do believe the Saints are a
better team. They just happened to have Patrick Mahomes not
playing well and Andy Reid and the other team is
Derek Carr and Dennis All And I'm going to talk
myself out of this before it's too long, but I
really do think the Saints are a better team. They're
going to get healthier. I think on the defensive side
of the ball. Hopefully Taysom Hill is back for their often.
Speaker 4 (09:18):
That's the lynch pin for me for the five and
a half. That's it, the Taysom Hill.
Speaker 1 (09:22):
Really yes, I mean the numbers are crazy that when
he's been out there this year, but maybe he just
was out there in the easier matchups. So yeah, keep
an eye on the Taysom Hill injury report stuff.
Speaker 4 (09:34):
I can absolutely guarantee one thing in this game though, yes,
that after the game, the coach of the team that's
facing the Saints is not going to say stats.
Speaker 3 (09:41):
Are for losers.
Speaker 2 (09:44):
All right, yeah, that was you know like Kelsey right
did that?
Speaker 3 (09:48):
No, No, that was that was Raheem Morris.
Speaker 1 (09:50):
So last week, Oh that's right, Jason Kelcey repeated it
and then went on another rant, which is hilarious.
Speaker 4 (09:58):
The one thing I do really like in this game,
I think it's a really low total.
Speaker 3 (10:02):
It's forty two and a half.
Speaker 4 (10:03):
I know both of these defenses are what's driving that,
but that's still a really low number. I understand the Chiefs.
They haven't bes worriing ton of points. We've seen the
Saints kind of go back and forth. But I think
if you look at where like the part of the
Saints defense that has been like generous in terms of
air yards per target, aer yards per reception, that's where
tight ends run, they've been generous to the tight end vision.
(10:24):
So I do think that the surprises the score could
be a little bit higher than that.
Speaker 1 (10:28):
So the Chiefs, this is their first game where they
go into it knowing they don't have Rashid Rice, who's
on MYR although his time to return is undefined right now,
it might not be a season ending injury, which which
is very interesting. They don't have Pa Checko this is
a slow offense with Kareem Hunt and Travis Kelce out there.
(10:49):
I like Alante Taylor in the slot. I like all
the different guys.
Speaker 3 (10:52):
They're Lonnny Taylor everywhere.
Speaker 1 (10:54):
They're not going to get great pass rush on Mahomes,
but that really hasn't been the case all year for
teams playing the Chiefs, and they're still not getting the
I think this is a secondary that can stick with
these guys on longer developing plays. So I really like
this one too. I like all my picks this week.
I'm feeling good if if I go one and two
this week like I did last like, I will have
(11:15):
a Mia Kolpa, I will apologize. I think I think
the rally starts now minimum two in one. I'm feeling
maybe a three and oh week. All right, what's your
what's your last one?
Speaker 4 (11:24):
I actually think right as of right now, New England
is favored by one point in that game. But there's
no Kyle Dugger, there's still you know, there's still Tyreek Hill,
There's still There's just a lot of things. And this
is a defense that Mike McDaniel is very, very familiar
with the structure of the defense, how it works, what
goes on and just rushing against them. And by the way,
unfortunately for the Patriots they lost their center too. This
(11:46):
is also a team who's already been getting gashed in
the middle of that O line. So I just think
the wrong team's favored. So I'll go ahead and take
the point because I think Miami wins this game.
Speaker 1 (11:54):
I took Miami in this game too. I think that's
a good pick. David Andrews is a huge lie for them,
already the worst offensive line in the league, a team
I think that Miami can look at and think, man,
all of our problems, like we're not getting much edge rush.
This is a matchup maybe where we can but we
can certainly get some push up the middle play as
Campbell and Zack Seeler, And I think you hit the
(12:16):
nail on the head with the matchup that McDaniel feels
comfortable with. They've almost been playing scared the last couple
of weeks. They might not The Patriots might not have
Jabrill Peppers in this game. You know, Christian Barmore is
long gone at this point, Matt Jwan Benny was, yet
Jawan Bentley was the guy calling the signals. It has
not been a good defense, and so I do think
(12:37):
Miami looks at this matchup and thinks, man, we can
actually just find a win here. It'll be close, it'll
they'll ugly it up the Patriots.
Speaker 2 (12:45):
But I'm with you. I think the Dolphins win. Not
one of my picks, though.
Speaker 4 (12:47):
Oh I like that we're different. Glad just we're covering
the whole league.
Speaker 1 (12:51):
Glad that you're not taking this one for me. I
love the Bills on the road in Houston. I usually
don't go for these like pick them type games where
it's two good teams, but I think the Bills are
a step above. And look, I had the Bills winning
the Super Bowl. I had them losing last week. I've
been on the Bills. Yeah, this is one team I
(13:12):
got a feel for. I think they're a top five
or six team in the NFL. I don't think Houston
is there yet. I like good teams coming off bad losses.
I don't care about the numbers. I don't know if
there's any numbers to that, but like a really good
team coming off of a loss, I like them rebounding
and then what's the way to beat the Bills. I
think the Ravens showed it last week. That's a bad
matchup problem to be more physical than them up front,
(13:33):
to push them around a little bit. They're a little
they're a little lighter in the pants the Bills on defense,
but they get Terrell Bernard back this week, apparently Toron Johnson.
At least they're practicing, so it looks good. The Texans
can't run the ball like we thought the Texans were
going to be able to run the ball. First week
of the season, they could, Joe Mixon gets hurt. Last
three weeks, they're right back to last year. Then I
(13:54):
look at the other side of the ball in the trenches.
Offensive line for the Bills has been awesome.
Speaker 3 (13:58):
Lead Dian Back.
Speaker 2 (14:00):
We don't know if Dean Dawkins is playing a huge deal.
Speaker 3 (14:02):
That left tackle is like the that is huge.
Speaker 2 (14:04):
Absolutely huge.
Speaker 1 (14:06):
But you know what, Will Anderson and Daniel Hunter haven't
been blowing up game plans this week, and I think
you can survive without one good offensive lineman. You can
help out their backup left tackle. The rest of the
line is really good. So I think they're winning the
games upfront on both sides of the ball. I think
they're winning those battles. I like the Bills a lot
(14:26):
minus one. I think the Texans have been more rickety
than their record suggests. They win these last second games
against the Colts and the Jaguars, and that's great, that's
a great young win, you know, wins for young quarterbacks.
Speaker 2 (14:39):
But I think the Bills are ready for this.
Speaker 4 (14:41):
So to me, this game is it feels foggy for
a couple of reasons. Number One, they lost von Miller
on defense. He's suspended, so that makes a big difference.
Number Two, I don't know. This injury report reads to
me like, you know, what's that game you play with
your kids? Were like, does he wear glasses? Guess who?
I'm just like, I don't even know who's playing at
(15:01):
this point. So I don't have a great feel on
this one. And then further, if the Texans were to
clean up their penalties, they have the most in the league.
They have forty total twenty six on offense.
Speaker 3 (15:13):
Yo, that's bad.
Speaker 4 (15:15):
If you were to clean that up just a little bit,
you're putting yourself in a much better situation. So it's
just hard when the problem is penalties, Like, I don't
know how you fix that, But I also know that
that's been.
Speaker 1 (15:26):
Sloppy and Eco concept individually made up for it, but
they've operations been sloppy.
Speaker 2 (15:32):
Yeah, but it's lacking.
Speaker 4 (15:33):
But what if you get it together this week and
then maybe Terrell Bernard or whatever they are not one
hundred percent.
Speaker 3 (15:39):
That's just the thing where I.
Speaker 4 (15:40):
Feel like and I'm just like, uh, what am I
looking at here?
Speaker 1 (15:44):
You know?
Speaker 4 (15:44):
Like I and I'm very familiar with the bills, and
I'm very familiar with the text, but extremely familiar with
the bills. Okay, it's like, you know who's playing safety? Like,
are we is Taylor Rapp?
Speaker 3 (15:52):
Okay? Is he gonna play?
Speaker 4 (15:53):
Like?
Speaker 2 (15:53):
I think Taylor Rep's probably missing this game? Yeah, there are.
Speaker 3 (15:56):
There's just likely a good feel.
Speaker 1 (15:58):
Don't I don't feel good going on the whole operation.
I'm going like Josh Allen. I love Josh MVP season.
So we're on opposite sides there, But that's not one
of your three picks. We're both coming off one in
two weeks. We're the man if I am that and
the computer model. We're tied so far, but we're under
five hundred. We need to we need to rally. If
(16:19):
you have any others that you just kind of like
you could throw them out. But yes, you mentioned the box,
and so every every week I have the box. I
have the teams that make make my top picks, and
for some reason, my extra picks are eleven and three.
Speaker 2 (16:35):
Yes, we went one and.
Speaker 1 (16:36):
Two last week, but the extra picks are eleven and three,
only one in one last week. Though I like the
Vikings in London, the more I thought about it, like
the less I've liked it. That was going to be
one of my picks early in the week, and I
just the more I thought about it. Aaron Rodgers is
playing really well, but I do think a team that
has protection problems the Jets identifying the free rushers and
all that against Brian Brian Floores, and then the Jets
(16:58):
defense hasn't played anyone. I'm I'm not sure about this
Jets defense. They've played the Titans, the Patriots, and the
Broncos back to back to back. I think there could
be issues there against the run. So I kind of
like the Vikings, I like the Commanders, like the Commanders.
Speaker 3 (17:10):
I like the Commanders a lot. That was going to
be one of mine.
Speaker 4 (17:13):
I just don't like the number three because then you
can push and like that seems like it's crappy for
our results. I also like Pittsburgh two and a half
at home against the Cowboys, who are.
Speaker 2 (17:21):
With that one is to be the biggest history box game.
Speaker 3 (17:24):
Parsons, Marcus Lawrence, gone gone.
Speaker 4 (17:26):
They're already tied for allowing like the most rushing first downs.
Speaker 2 (17:29):
In the league.
Speaker 1 (17:30):
But now we're favoring justin fields and a pretty I'm
not over and I love fields.
Speaker 2 (17:35):
But over Dak. To me, that's just a toss up,
and I just want to stay away from.
Speaker 4 (17:40):
No, I'm justin fields against a very banged up defense
compared to Dak Prescott versus a really mean defense.
Speaker 3 (17:47):
Okay, that's kind of how I view it. Like it's not.
Speaker 2 (17:49):
If I had to pick one, i'd be on your side.
Speaker 1 (17:51):
I'd take the Steelers, but that one I just kind
of want to watch and enjoy the uniform matchup in
the history. And so yeah, in the box this week,
my my repicks would be Minnesota minus two and a half,
Washington minus three and a half or three, depending on
where you look. And I actually was on the opposite side.
Now that you kind of convinced me out of it,
I'm crossing it out. I had Carolina written down, and
(18:13):
you convinced me out of it.
Speaker 2 (18:14):
I have to admit, I'm so it's good.
Speaker 3 (18:15):
I'm sorry if we're wrong, I'm really sorry.
Speaker 2 (18:17):
I know it's okay because it's.
Speaker 4 (18:19):
The box actually makes me feel better because everything in
that box feels luckier.
Speaker 2 (18:23):
It has been luckier. But so I'm only going with
two there.
Speaker 1 (18:25):
It's Minnesota and Washington because you made a compelling case
against and I want to root for the Bears to
win this game easily.
Speaker 2 (18:32):
Yeah in Caleb Williams.
Speaker 3 (18:33):
Yeah, because then in luck it will be way more fun.
Speaker 1 (18:35):
Thank you all for listening all week long on the podcast.
We really appreciate you leave some reviews. Yeah, we give
us a few stars. I just love this community we're
building and everyone that has been enjoying the shows. We
will be back on Sunday night to recap all the games,
(18:57):
including that Bear Name game and the Bears winning big.
Speaker 2 (19:01):
When the games are in London, you know football is back.
I can't see you next day.
Host
Gregg Rosenthal
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