October 17, 2025 • 25 mins
Gregg Rosenthal and NFL Network's Cynthia Frelund make their picks for Week 7 and they are going streaking! A winning streak, that is. The crew's been on fire with their NFL picks and they are hoping to keep the heat going into week 7. They talk about Carolina Panthers vs. New York Jets (01:55), Green Bay Packers vs. Arizona Cardinals (04:52), Los Angeles Rams vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (07:47), Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Detroit Lions (11:59), New York Giants vs. Denver Broncos (15:12), and Las Vegas Raiders vs. Kansas City Chiefs (20:27).
Note: time codes approximate.
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Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:02):
Welcome to NFL Daily, where we're going streaking. I'm here
in the Chris Westling podcast studio with my friend Cynthia Friedland.
Streak in college, of course, not I'm talking about a winning.
Speaker 2 (00:15):
Streak that me and you were freaking on the quad.
Speaker 1 (00:18):
No, I definitely was not a person that did that.
I didn't really know anyone there was that really a thing.
I don't think so well.
Speaker 3 (00:24):
Boston College didn't have like sororities or fraternities, so I
think that's like a like a frat situation.
Speaker 4 (00:31):
Not like I.
Speaker 1 (00:33):
Might urizing this, but I was in a fraternity which
was at Two Lane University at O.
Speaker 2 (00:38):
Okay, what's the like acronym? Like, what is it?
Speaker 4 (00:40):
Alpha, taue, mega, and uh, like what's.
Speaker 2 (00:43):
The like you know, Essay is saying everywhere.
Speaker 1 (00:45):
It's a it's a great embarrassment to me. And yet
we had a lot of fun, you know, like it
wasn't It wasn't like fraternities everywhere else where. Like I
didn't live in the house, I didn't ever pay any dues.
It was just you went out to bar and you
had fun. It was New Orleans, Okay. When I said
we're going streaking, Yep. I'm mentioning how the sun is
shining brighter on us in Los Angeles. The food is
tasting better because me and you between us have had
(01:08):
two straight winning weeks. So if you add it all up,
that's four straight winning weeks between the two of us.
And yeah, if you're watching on YouTube, you can see
our season total. We're still under five hundred, but we're
getting close. And the reality is we're on the right
track right now. Another two in one week. And if
I had just stuck with my Seahawks, I was worried
about them last week. They were they would have been
(01:30):
my third game I got right. But I got Atlanta
and the Rams right. You got Miami and New England
right last week? Where are you going first this week?
Three games every week against the spread.
Speaker 3 (01:42):
So I'm doing this more for the comedic effect than
any thing, because I know that there is a team
that has really, like you've been chasing this team all
season long and they have done you dirty, and my
model finally picked them to win, so and I know
we did. One of those losses has been this stupid team. However,
I think that the Jets, I think that they win
(02:04):
straight up wow, which means that the Jets are let's
see the what's the one if it was one or
one and a half, But does it really matter.
Speaker 1 (02:14):
I know they're one and a half point underdog. Sorry,
but I think they started as favorites. People bet it
the other way. We're taping this. They are one and
a half point underdogs to the Carolina Panthers at three
and three.
Speaker 3 (02:26):
Okay, so for whatever whatever side of it says the
Jets win, I'll take whatever.
Speaker 4 (02:32):
Side of it.
Speaker 1 (02:32):
Yes, so even if they lost by one, then I'm
so you would be good in this scenario.
Speaker 4 (02:38):
That's right.
Speaker 1 (02:38):
I stopped chasing them two weeks ago. I finally got
off that narcotic It's felt great. Although they did cover
last week against the Broncos.
Speaker 2 (02:45):
That game was hard to watch. It was a hard watch.
Speaker 4 (02:48):
Are you you were in person?
Speaker 1 (02:50):
You got to London on Friday evening and then we're
gone Monday morning.
Speaker 4 (02:55):
That is a quick turnaround.
Speaker 1 (02:57):
And the Jets while you were there, they left Europe
with more less passing yards than when they arrived.
Speaker 3 (03:06):
That's not a good that's not a good sign. And
I love this season. Okay, so, but I so give
me the Jet's case. The real football case. Two things
really stand out in this matchup against the Panthers. The
Panthers who have not brought a lot of pressure all season.
Now I watched a breaking point from the sideline there.
Those teammates were not happy for Jets s Garett Wilson.
(03:30):
So now we see something where I mean just a
Field was holding onto the ball for far too long.
He shouldn't have been sacked nine nine times. That's a
ridiculous number. So they're going to have to change some things.
It is time. It is hard to lose all of
your games in a season. This is a good opportunity
to leverage Breeze Hall's effectiveness in the rung game. He's
tied for the second most explosive runs with fourteen in
the NFL.
Speaker 2 (03:49):
That's a huge deal.
Speaker 3 (03:50):
On the other side, Jermaine Johnson being back, that is
a huge upgrade. Michael Clemens and Jermaine Johnson. It's two
ends of the spectrum here. And I don't mean to
be mean to him because he is I'm sure he's
a very nice man.
Speaker 1 (04:02):
I don't know him as a professional. He's made a
lot of money doing what he did.
Speaker 4 (04:05):
And Michael Clements correct, Yeah, but he can't set the edge.
Big upgrade for Jermaine Johnson. Yeah, he looked good last week.
Speaker 3 (04:11):
Jermaine Johnson is a big deal, and in this one
where I don't think they're sure. Tedorow McMillan is great,
but this is not the same. You know, the Broncos
defense is really scary, like you got to. I mean,
that's a hard defense to navigate no matter who you are.
I just think that the balance point of this will
be better.
Speaker 4 (04:29):
I'm hoping you're right. I'm staying far away from that one.
Speaker 3 (04:32):
I kind of just think it's funny more than anything else.
Like I'm here for the comedy as well.
Speaker 1 (04:36):
I don't have a hot take on that game at all.
I actually really like four games this week. So Okay,
it's very difficult because we have to narrow it down
by one. So I might go through all four and
you can help me maybe cancel one out, but I'm
going to start with Arizona plus six and a half
hosting the Green Bay Packers.
Speaker 2 (04:58):
Who do you think the quarterback is?
Speaker 1 (05:00):
I think it's probably Jacoby Brissett, but Kyler Murray was
at practice on Wednesday. Generally, if a starting quarterback is
limited at practice on a Wednesday. He will start that game.
I'm not worried about who the quarterback is. I might
prefer Jacoby Brissett. Their offense looked good last week, more
(05:21):
under center round.
Speaker 3 (05:22):
I have a greater output for Arizona with Jacoby Brissett
than Kyler Murray as well.
Speaker 1 (05:28):
Just so, okay, so they have a bye next week,
and just reading between the lines with the National Insiders,
it sounded like they would prefer to rest Kyler through
the by to make sure that he stays one hundred percent.
We will see, but the number here is too big
for me either way. Okay, nobody's beating the Cardinals by
(05:49):
more than four so far, and they've played some good teams.
They played Seattle, they played San Francisco, they played Indianapolis.
They actually have a plus scoring differential on the season.
They are they are the example of what the NFL
is all about this year, which is one score games
and a big fat middle.
Speaker 4 (06:08):
They are more like a three and three team.
Speaker 1 (06:10):
Okay, even their wins this year are by wine score,
so they played in seven sixth straight one score games. Meanwhile,
the Packers, I think they should be one of the
best teams in the league, but they haven't really performed
like it on a consistent basis. They're like seventh or
eighth in DVOA. Overall, I just think this Cardinals team
(06:31):
needs this game so bad, and I do sometimes go
with desperation. They're at home, they're before the bye, it's
a big moment for them. They have their offensive line
in place for the first time really since the very
beginning of last year. I think their defense is well coached,
and show me the Green Bay game other than against Cincinnati.
(06:51):
They didn't even really do it against Sin tonight where
they're like running away. Yeah, that's a long time ago.
That's Week one. So on the road, I do not
trust them to go and get this done. I just
think it's going to be a close game at the end. Yeah, no,
I'm with you, Okay, I have the same.
Speaker 3 (07:06):
I have the same I do have the Packers winning
the Packers, I have them winning, but I have Arizona
keeping it close.
Speaker 1 (07:13):
I I thought for our show game debut of taking
the Cardinals straight up, I just I just can imagine
it that they have a win that turns their season around.
But I don't need the win here. It's like why
I talked about last week. When I went with Atlanta,
I was like, I don't need the win, they just
need to cover. And same thing with the Patriots a
couple weeks ago. Maybe they will win. So if you're
(07:34):
into that, whatever, whatever the number is on the you're
I wouldn't I wouldn't tell you not to do that.
So Arizona plus six and a half is my first one.
All right, you're up next.
Speaker 3 (07:44):
Okay, what's the number you're seeing for Jacksonville and the Rams?
The Rams are favorite IC three. Yes, okay, I think
Jacksonville wins.
Speaker 1 (07:51):
Wow, straight up, straight up? Now tell me interesting. Are
you really gonna love NFL Daily forever?
Speaker 4 (07:58):
You know? Yep?
Speaker 3 (07:59):
Oh oh oh okay, yeah, we're old. We're really old.
If anyone gets that, congratulations.
Speaker 4 (08:04):
People are going to get it's popular song.
Speaker 2 (08:06):
It's a great song. A couple of things.
Speaker 3 (08:08):
One, I don't think Poka nukula will play, and I
don't think that's accurately priced into this line. So without pukakua,
the math becomes quite different. Matthew Stafford's passer rating with
targeting Devonte Adams or everyone else just a lot worse.
Pooka is so important to this offense, and not to
say that Sean McVay can't figure some things out, but
(08:30):
the Jags defense is pretty good.
Speaker 4 (08:32):
Now.
Speaker 3 (08:32):
They're without Devin Lloyd, who is the league's interception leader,
but they've got a number of other pieces that are
also pretty good. Even though they're not getting a ton
of pressure up front, the things that they're doing on
the back end are helping them out significantly so. And
the Jags, by the way, like London's their second home.
They have this is we talk about it all the time.
They've played fourteen games abroad or something. This will be
their fourteenth game. They're seven to six all in London.
(08:54):
I think that they have a better like like the
day they get the schedule is more set.
Speaker 2 (09:01):
The Rams will get there till Saturday. Do you know
your heart?
Speaker 4 (09:04):
That is?
Speaker 3 (09:05):
I mean, I just did that, and I'm like, I'm
an old a regular old analyst. I'm not trying to
run at people and hit things and be violent. I
was just trying to get to London, you know.
Speaker 1 (09:17):
Right knowing that organization, there's certainly one that is into
sleep science and everything like that, and I think there's
a lot of disagreeing theories of what's better for your
body clock. They determined that staying in Baltimore all week.
They're not doing any media over there. They're arriving, like
you said, Saturday morning, and then we'll play twenty four
(09:40):
hours later. That is the latest any team's ever showed up.
Plenty of teams have showed up on Friday. The Chiefs,
I think, traditionally show up late in the week. That
do you feel weird getting off the plane? Absolutely, it
takes it's a it's a problem. If anything else, maybe
this is what the science is saying. I feel better
for the first twenty four to thirty six hours. Maybe
(10:00):
it's like it's almost still like a rush, and then
it sets in. That is difficult. I am with you.
I had the Jaguars covering the spread. It's not one
of the games I considered. I have the Rams winning,
so I don't feel strong about that game. I do
wonder if this Jaguars offensive line is not as good
as we thought. They played some good opponent for them,
(10:21):
like easy opponents early, and then last week they did
not look good. They're without they were without their center.
I think that could be a big deal if he
doesn't return. But we don't know that far.
Speaker 2 (10:29):
I think both things are true.
Speaker 3 (10:30):
Yeah, I don't think it's as good as the I
think it was like three sacks or four weeks something crazy.
Either four sacks or three weeks or three sex beforeus
either way.
Speaker 1 (10:38):
And they had two games where they didn't give up
a pressure that's right, including against the fact I.
Speaker 2 (10:42):
Think that was a little food gayzy.
Speaker 3 (10:44):
But I also think that it's a little bit false
to say that they're as bad as they looked against
the Seahawks as well. So I think both things are true.
I mostly think that the ability for Travis etn to
get some chunk yards plays. I know he was held
to just what twenty seven yards last week against Seahawk
sets very different defense. They don't have the back end
pieces on the Rams that are quite as great at
(11:04):
helping out, especially in that kind of run situation coverage
than they do on compared to the Seahawks. So the
Rams are they're just a different there's different teams.
Speaker 1 (11:12):
Yeah, you attack them on the ground. I think the
Jaguars have an advantage there that the Rams one of
the best rushing teams in the league. The Jaguars maybe
a little better set up to stop the run.
Speaker 4 (11:21):
That's close to a coin flip game for me.
Speaker 1 (11:24):
I am glad that we're sending all our UK London
residents a better game this week because the two games
overseas so far, really all three, if you go back
to Dublin, have been very close down to the wire
and they've all had moments.
Speaker 4 (11:42):
But that I do feel a little bad about.
Speaker 1 (11:44):
Sending Broncos Jets over there, And so I think we're
wrapping up the London portion with the best game yet.
Two good four and two teams. Okay, Like I said,
I have four picks. You're gonna help me cancel one out.
The first one was Arizona. The second one is such
a funky line Tampa Bay plus five and a half
that I feel like Vegas is trying to get everyone
(12:05):
to go with the Bucks. Or maybe they don't think
like that, like Patrick says, and maybe that's just what
the numbers say. And I know if you peek beneath
the hood, the Bucks haven't been as good really as
the record would indicate. But you know, they are like
number one in a lot of people's power rankings. They're
number literally the number one seed in the NFC right now.
(12:26):
I think for a reason, and that's that they're getting better.
They're actually getting healthier. And the reason I love this
and man, I have a hard time even picking the
lines to win straight up, although I did, but I
have it as a one point game is the Lions injuries.
It's a disaster week for them. They don't have their
two starting cornerbacks and they have to go up against
(12:46):
Baker Mayfield, and they don't have Brian Branch who's suspended.
And oh, by the way, Kirby Joseph doesn't look one
hundred percent. He's not really at practice. Taylor Decker, the
left tackle, might return to practice. He's up up in
the air as we're taping. Put it all up there,
and like, man, you're giving me five and a half
points for one of the best teams in the NFL.
Speaker 4 (13:05):
I love that one. I'm taking the bucks.
Speaker 2 (13:07):
Yeah, I have.
Speaker 3 (13:08):
I have a three point win for Detroit. So I'm
on the same side as you about that one. I
did not. I think that it was the combination of
I mean, a mecha Buka is not playing for sure,
Mike Evans.
Speaker 4 (13:20):
I think he's back.
Speaker 1 (13:21):
I'm going to assume Evans is priced is into my
pricing as back just on the optimism that Todd Bowles is.
Speaker 2 (13:27):
Saying, sure, but is he one hundred like back or back?
Speaker 4 (13:31):
Right?
Speaker 1 (13:31):
Because Chris Godwin was back a couple of weeks back,
you know, like, so he's not back anymore, by the way.
Speaker 3 (13:37):
No, he's unback. He went back to being unbacked whatever the.
Speaker 4 (13:41):
Finn at receiver. But yeah, they've shown that they can
overcome that.
Speaker 3 (13:44):
Of course, but but it helps against the that helps
the Lions, because I mean, look what we saw from
the Lions last week against Patrick Mahomes was getting crushed
when Patrick used an intermediate pass. Just death by a
thousand paper cuts, right, like or intermediate passes are the
paper cuts here. But I don't think that the see
the difference is is Baker's ability to have you know,
(14:08):
there's no Xavier Worthy plus Hollywood Brown plus Travis Kelce
plus they just don't have that debt.
Speaker 4 (14:13):
I give you a Ted Johnson. How about a little.
Speaker 2 (14:15):
You try to sell me on a test?
Speaker 1 (14:17):
How about like an aged nineteen or in maybe two
thousand nineteen version of Sterling Shepherd's kind of like popping up,
I hear you. But that's why I took the lines
ultimately to win, and I trust their organization. They haven't
lost too straight for three years. Now, you trust me,
I've seen it. You don't think that matters, but I
do think, like great teams, great organizations, it's tough for
(14:41):
them to lose twice in a row. I think they
have a big time home field advantage, and that's why
I think it's a coin flip. I'd absolutely picked the
Bucks if it was in Tampa, but since it's in Detroit,
I'm taking the minds to win. But I wouldn't be
surprised with Bucks win straight up, doesn't matter. Five and
a half points.
Speaker 4 (14:54):
Is a lot.
Speaker 3 (14:55):
It's a lot. It's like they're begging us, which I'm
I'm a litri. It does feel like a little right,
I'm at a little kid. Here's some candy for you.
That does kind of feel.
Speaker 4 (15:04):
I feel good about it. So Bucks plus five and
a half, let's go with your third pick.
Speaker 3 (15:09):
I'm going for some symmetry here. I'm gonna end this
one with the Denver Broncos, and I think that they
win by more than seven. I think that as good
as we've seen the Giants, and I know it's been fun.
Speaker 2 (15:19):
I know they just beat the Eagles. I did watch it.
I saw it.
Speaker 3 (15:21):
I saw everything, and I saw what happened against the Jets.
But ahead of the game, all of those Denver players
who had been a week and on the East coast
in Philadelphia ahead of going to they were just over it.
And not to say that that's like you can't factor
that into the math. But what I'm looking at here
is JK. Dobbins, another guy who's grated explosive runs. That
(15:41):
is where the Giants can get got. I also watch
these screen passes, and what do the Denver Broncos do
screen screen?
Speaker 4 (15:48):
You want?
Speaker 2 (15:48):
Do you want to? Let's run a screen line? The
Giants screen screen screen.
Speaker 3 (15:52):
And you know who gives up a ton of yards
to screen passes?
Speaker 4 (15:55):
The Giants.
Speaker 3 (15:56):
So as good as their front is, I think that
the O line plus the screen pass plus the run
game for the Broncos, and plus how nasty that Denver
defense is there, that defense is firing on all cylinders.
Nick Bonito is I'm not suggesting that the that the
that the front isn't great for the Giants, but the
back end and the linebacker level nowhere near the caliber
(16:17):
of what the Broncos are bringing.
Speaker 4 (16:19):
Love it.
Speaker 1 (16:20):
What does your computer model do with extra rest?
Speaker 4 (16:23):
Does it matter at all?
Speaker 2 (16:25):
Depends It depends on the extra rest.
Speaker 1 (16:27):
Right, So the Giants in this case, you have four
extra days rest and.
Speaker 2 (16:31):
They get weak neighbors back.
Speaker 3 (16:33):
No, oh okay, now that would be a difference.
Speaker 1 (16:37):
He's going to be out the rest of the year.
That's priced into all their numbers. They get the extra rest,
and Denver's coming all the way back from London. Sometimes
you know, I don't know if you can factor that in,
but that does seem like a lot.
Speaker 4 (16:51):
I saw something for what it's worth.
Speaker 1 (16:53):
They're the they're the first team, like in Mountain or
Pacific to ever come back from London and play the
next week. It's usually up to the teams if they
want to take the buy the next week after going overseas,
they do not have.
Speaker 3 (17:08):
It's also alumni weekend, and if you're into like this
sort of thing, they're honoring de Marius Thomas in this one,
so and you know he's like the heartbeat up. I'm
just saying, so if you're looking at these extra factors,
it's alumni weekend. DT's getting his whatever. The version of
the Broncos Ring of Honor is whatever that.
Speaker 1 (17:26):
Is, and so I've kept this in my pocket. But
I disagree who I strongly disagree. But I'm happy that
you took the Broncos minus seven because what it did
for me is it made up my mind which pick
of mine I'm going to eliminate because Giants plus seven
was one of my four picks I really liked. And
(17:48):
I want us both to shine right now. We are
both on a winning streak despite one of your only
two losses in the last two weeks combined was when
we went head to head. I don't want to guarantee
one of us is getting a loss when we each
winning weeks back to back weeks. So I will just
put that in my pocket. That's just an extra pick.
Everyone who's listening knows I feel differently, and I will
(18:10):
make the case just briefly, which is okay. I made
the rest case, which I think matters a little bit
to me. They both just played Philadelphia. If you're going
to do the pythagoream theorem, I mean, who looked like it.
Speaker 4 (18:24):
Was like the biggest thing ever was.
Speaker 3 (18:26):
When j Where's Jalen Carter? How do you factor him
not playing? Okay, that's fair he's like, I don't like this,
I'm just playing.
Speaker 1 (18:32):
We both are feeling great after beating the Eagles. I mean,
the Giants looked even more impressive beating the Eagles. I
liked what I thought saw out of the Giants defense
last week. I thought they were more creative, really.
Speaker 2 (18:44):
Confused, they more creative or I think they.
Speaker 1 (18:47):
Stole some stuff from the Broncos because they were sure,
but they were showing more of like.
Speaker 3 (18:52):
Tell me what you're thinking about that Eagles offense being
creative and I will wait.
Speaker 4 (18:55):
Right, fair, I will wait.
Speaker 1 (18:56):
But what they did was they showed some of the
simulated press that they wanted wanted. They showed some post
snap movement, like the things that we haven't seen out
of Shane Bowen and that Giants defense very often. I
thought they did well, like some run blitzes, all this stuff.
I was like, Okay, that's great. And then the bigger
factor here is you know since Jackson Dart took over. Yeah,
(19:17):
they're two and one and they've covered twice the Broncos.
And I was thinking about this because they are not
they the Saints and you know why five Street term
uh huh.
Speaker 3 (19:29):
You know, you know what happens when you have a
lot of pressure, like the most pressure in the league.
Speaker 4 (19:32):
Yeah, that could happen.
Speaker 1 (19:34):
You know how many times the Broncos have covered all year,
because I was thinking about it.
Speaker 4 (19:37):
They have not really had many convincing games.
Speaker 1 (19:41):
And that's why when I see seven and I wouldn't
be that shocked if the underdog wins the game, which
I personally would not be that shocked this week obviously
you would.
Speaker 4 (19:50):
Then I just like taking that many points.
Speaker 1 (19:52):
The Broncos have only covered twice all year, you know,
Once was as the underdog to the Eagles, which by
the way, was my pick that week.
Speaker 4 (19:59):
The other time was against the Bengals.
Speaker 1 (20:00):
You pack them straight up, but they've They've had some
spots where they're heavy favorites against the Titans and and
other times where their favorites and they and they haven't won.
So I just thought, if you look at these two teams,
I think they're closer than people think.
Speaker 4 (20:11):
But you disagree.
Speaker 1 (20:13):
And the math the model has been right again and
again over the years for good reasons. So I'm happy
to just have that be my just put put it
in the pocket. So what's the official Oh, that's right,
I need it's Chiefs minus eleven and a half. It's
not fun. You made fun of me last week for
switching into like rams or like that's not exciting. And
(20:34):
their minus seven and a half against the Ravens. It's
all exciting when you know, you get exciting. Yes, so
to be this is just an old school Kansas City team.
You you probably don't have these numbers right in front
of you because they might ask you ahead of time,
But just do you have an overall efficiency metric for
offense and defense? Because okay, what what is the Chiefs
(20:56):
right now on offense?
Speaker 4 (20:57):
Well?
Speaker 3 (20:58):
If factors in the whole season? Are you talking week?
I mean even the whole season, the whole season.
Speaker 1 (21:02):
Yeah, well, I'm guessing it's really high for what it's worth.
Speaker 4 (21:06):
I'll let you look it up.
Speaker 2 (21:07):
Look at it.
Speaker 1 (21:08):
Yeah, DVOA has them as the number two offense now
in the league and the number eighteen defense. No, that's perfect,
and like what is the defense? Somewhere more in the middle.
I would guess it's an old school Chiefs team, is my.
Speaker 2 (21:21):
After last week it's fourteen?
Speaker 1 (21:23):
Yeah, so this is these are the Chiefs teams we
grew up, you know, we were just little kids when
they little whip, when when they were going up and
down the field and Patrick Mahomes was winning his first MVP. Uh,
it's an old school type of Chiefs team that I
can recognize. A great offensive line and I'm maybe a
good to great offensive line, Mahomes making plays on the move,
(21:44):
Mahomes making plays down the field, and then team of speed.
You are taking Juju Smith Schuster off the field, going
from probably about forty snaps to about twelve. He'll be
in there for run blocking. And then you are inserting
Rashi Rice into those snaps almost the same role, who
looked fantastic by the end of last year, who I
(22:07):
just think is gonna take off, and you have him
and Worthy and when they want to use Thorton on
the field all at the same time. Man, this is
a fast defense with a lot of pass pro against
a Raiders team that just can't protect.
Speaker 4 (22:19):
Forget it. Yeah, I mean put up thirty five to fourteen.
Speaker 1 (22:23):
I apologize to Gino Smith, but I just think this
Raiders seems one of the worst teams in the league.
Speaker 2 (22:28):
Since twenty eighteen.
Speaker 3 (22:29):
The win margin averaged for the Chiefs thirteen point three points.
So I'm actually with you, I have a thirteen point win.
Let's go for she Rice. This was interesting. You know
how conservative my model tends to be. Yes, well, prior
I looked at it like without and with Rashie Rich
just because I was curious what difference he would make
in this one.
Speaker 2 (22:46):
And it's one full point.
Speaker 4 (22:48):
That's a lot, lot for a receiver.
Speaker 2 (22:49):
That's a lot for me.
Speaker 3 (22:51):
Like, that's like, that's I mean, there's some quarterbacks that
don't give a one.
Speaker 4 (22:56):
Point that's great, that's crazy.
Speaker 3 (22:58):
But it's also the matchup, right, the matchup where you
now have you know, the secondary of the Raiders, this
one where it's not maybe the strongest.
Speaker 1 (23:07):
Yeah, you've talked about the intermediate game last week for
the Chiefs, and you can you can imagine the safeties,
the linebackers for the Raiders getting picked on. All right,
your picks are Denver plus seven or minus seven rautds.
Speaker 2 (23:17):
I say I'll take Denver plus seven all day. There
we go.
Speaker 4 (23:20):
Yep.
Speaker 1 (23:20):
You have the Broncos as a touchdown favorite at home.
You have the Jets as a one and a half
point underdog doggy at home.
Speaker 4 (23:26):
Just that's spicy.
Speaker 1 (23:28):
And then you have the Jaguars in London technically a
home game, but we.
Speaker 4 (23:33):
Know that it's a neutral game.
Speaker 1 (23:35):
I would say for this so that the Jaguars will
have more fans than the Rams there.
Speaker 4 (23:38):
I don't know.
Speaker 2 (23:39):
I think those fans are hilarious. I was a big fan.
Speaker 3 (23:42):
Like they're just fans of the whole sport, the songs,
all of it. You know you've been the fans are great.
Fans are awesome.
Speaker 4 (23:48):
I've been to a lot of the international games.
Speaker 1 (23:50):
Now, the Dublin crowd was different because it was a
Steelers home game. It was really crazy to see a
Steelers home game in Dublin. But so many Dublin and
Steelers fans and so many people just travel traveled for
that game. Patrick Queen even said it afterwards like they
were louder throughout than the home crowd in Pittsburgh. But
this this week, it'll just be a great celebration of football.
(24:12):
My picks, you crossed me out from going Giants plus seven.
I don't want to go against you, so that's just
an extra one. But I go Chiefs minus eleven and
a half, Bucks plus five and a half and the
Cardinals the other one.
Speaker 3 (24:25):
Just keep it an eye the Cardinals, you're getting five
and a half to six and a half, six and
a half for the Cardinals.
Speaker 4 (24:30):
Do not take that point away.
Speaker 2 (24:31):
Sorry, no, no, no, I thought it was five and a half.
So six and a half.
Speaker 1 (24:33):
It's a juicy one. I was hoping it get up
to seven. It did not. I was keeping an eye
on that Washington game. But now the injury reports so weird.
With Deebo and Terry mcclaurin.
Speaker 3 (24:43):
I think that whatever the number is, whatever the number is, though, yeah,
I think that it's too low. I think that's going
to be like to the Moon game.
Speaker 1 (24:51):
Oh in terms of the over under, I got you. Yeah,
I agree with you on that as well. So just
keep an eye on the injury pere. I do kind
of like the Commanders. All right, that is it for
our Week seven picks. We're making some progress here in
terms of the season, and we're making progress in terms
of our picks. We will be back Sunday night myself,
Patrick Claybahn, Jordan rod Rigg, and Nick Shook for your
(25:11):
Week seven recap.
Speaker 4 (25:13):
We will see you that
Welcome to NFL Daily, where we're going streaking. I'm here
in the Chris Westling podcast studio with my friend Cynthia Friedland.
Streak in college, of course, not I'm talking about a winning.
Speaker 2 (00:15):
Streak that me and you were freaking on the quad.
Speaker 1 (00:18):
No, I definitely was not a person that did that.
I didn't really know anyone there was that really a thing.
I don't think so well.
Speaker 3 (00:24):
Boston College didn't have like sororities or fraternities, so I
think that's like a like a frat situation.
Speaker 4 (00:31):
Not like I.
Speaker 1 (00:33):
Might urizing this, but I was in a fraternity which
was at Two Lane University at O.
Speaker 2 (00:38):
Okay, what's the like acronym? Like, what is it?
Speaker 4 (00:40):
Alpha, taue, mega, and uh, like what's.
Speaker 2 (00:43):
The like you know, Essay is saying everywhere.
Speaker 1 (00:45):
It's a it's a great embarrassment to me. And yet
we had a lot of fun, you know, like it
wasn't It wasn't like fraternities everywhere else where. Like I
didn't live in the house, I didn't ever pay any dues.
It was just you went out to bar and you
had fun. It was New Orleans, Okay. When I said
we're going streaking, Yep. I'm mentioning how the sun is
shining brighter on us in Los Angeles. The food is
tasting better because me and you between us have had
(01:08):
two straight winning weeks. So if you add it all up,
that's four straight winning weeks between the two of us.
And yeah, if you're watching on YouTube, you can see
our season total. We're still under five hundred, but we're
getting close. And the reality is we're on the right
track right now. Another two in one week. And if
I had just stuck with my Seahawks, I was worried
about them last week. They were they would have been
(01:30):
my third game I got right. But I got Atlanta
and the Rams right. You got Miami and New England
right last week? Where are you going first this week?
Three games every week against the spread.
Speaker 3 (01:42):
So I'm doing this more for the comedic effect than
any thing, because I know that there is a team
that has really, like you've been chasing this team all
season long and they have done you dirty, and my
model finally picked them to win, so and I know
we did. One of those losses has been this stupid team. However,
I think that the Jets, I think that they win
(02:04):
straight up wow, which means that the Jets are let's
see the what's the one if it was one or
one and a half, But does it really matter.
Speaker 1 (02:14):
I know they're one and a half point underdog. Sorry,
but I think they started as favorites. People bet it
the other way. We're taping this. They are one and
a half point underdogs to the Carolina Panthers at three
and three.
Speaker 3 (02:26):
Okay, so for whatever whatever side of it says the
Jets win, I'll take whatever.
Speaker 4 (02:32):
Side of it.
Speaker 1 (02:32):
Yes, so even if they lost by one, then I'm
so you would be good in this scenario.
Speaker 4 (02:38):
That's right.
Speaker 1 (02:38):
I stopped chasing them two weeks ago. I finally got
off that narcotic It's felt great. Although they did cover
last week against the Broncos.
Speaker 2 (02:45):
That game was hard to watch. It was a hard watch.
Speaker 4 (02:48):
Are you you were in person?
Speaker 1 (02:50):
You got to London on Friday evening and then we're
gone Monday morning.
Speaker 4 (02:55):
That is a quick turnaround.
Speaker 1 (02:57):
And the Jets while you were there, they left Europe
with more less passing yards than when they arrived.
Speaker 3 (03:06):
That's not a good that's not a good sign. And
I love this season. Okay, so, but I so give
me the Jet's case. The real football case. Two things
really stand out in this matchup against the Panthers. The
Panthers who have not brought a lot of pressure all season.
Now I watched a breaking point from the sideline there.
Those teammates were not happy for Jets s Garett Wilson.
(03:30):
So now we see something where I mean just a
Field was holding onto the ball for far too long.
He shouldn't have been sacked nine nine times. That's a
ridiculous number. So they're going to have to change some things.
It is time. It is hard to lose all of
your games in a season. This is a good opportunity
to leverage Breeze Hall's effectiveness in the rung game. He's
tied for the second most explosive runs with fourteen in
the NFL.
Speaker 2 (03:49):
That's a huge deal.
Speaker 3 (03:50):
On the other side, Jermaine Johnson being back, that is
a huge upgrade. Michael Clemens and Jermaine Johnson. It's two
ends of the spectrum here. And I don't mean to
be mean to him because he is I'm sure he's
a very nice man.
Speaker 1 (04:02):
I don't know him as a professional. He's made a
lot of money doing what he did.
Speaker 4 (04:05):
And Michael Clements correct, Yeah, but he can't set the edge.
Big upgrade for Jermaine Johnson. Yeah, he looked good last week.
Speaker 3 (04:11):
Jermaine Johnson is a big deal, and in this one
where I don't think they're sure. Tedorow McMillan is great,
but this is not the same. You know, the Broncos
defense is really scary, like you got to. I mean,
that's a hard defense to navigate no matter who you are.
I just think that the balance point of this will
be better.
Speaker 4 (04:29):
I'm hoping you're right. I'm staying far away from that one.
Speaker 3 (04:32):
I kind of just think it's funny more than anything else.
Like I'm here for the comedy as well.
Speaker 1 (04:36):
I don't have a hot take on that game at all.
I actually really like four games this week. So Okay,
it's very difficult because we have to narrow it down
by one. So I might go through all four and
you can help me maybe cancel one out, but I'm
going to start with Arizona plus six and a half
hosting the Green Bay Packers.
Speaker 2 (04:58):
Who do you think the quarterback is?
Speaker 1 (05:00):
I think it's probably Jacoby Brissett, but Kyler Murray was
at practice on Wednesday. Generally, if a starting quarterback is
limited at practice on a Wednesday. He will start that game.
I'm not worried about who the quarterback is. I might
prefer Jacoby Brissett. Their offense looked good last week, more
(05:21):
under center round.
Speaker 3 (05:22):
I have a greater output for Arizona with Jacoby Brissett
than Kyler Murray as well.
Speaker 1 (05:28):
Just so, okay, so they have a bye next week,
and just reading between the lines with the National Insiders,
it sounded like they would prefer to rest Kyler through
the by to make sure that he stays one hundred percent.
We will see, but the number here is too big
for me either way. Okay, nobody's beating the Cardinals by
(05:49):
more than four so far, and they've played some good teams.
They played Seattle, they played San Francisco, they played Indianapolis.
They actually have a plus scoring differential on the season.
They are they are the example of what the NFL
is all about this year, which is one score games
and a big fat middle.
Speaker 4 (06:08):
They are more like a three and three team.
Speaker 1 (06:10):
Okay, even their wins this year are by wine score,
so they played in seven sixth straight one score games. Meanwhile,
the Packers, I think they should be one of the
best teams in the league, but they haven't really performed
like it on a consistent basis. They're like seventh or
eighth in DVOA. Overall, I just think this Cardinals team
(06:31):
needs this game so bad, and I do sometimes go
with desperation. They're at home, they're before the bye, it's
a big moment for them. They have their offensive line
in place for the first time really since the very
beginning of last year. I think their defense is well coached,
and show me the Green Bay game other than against Cincinnati.
(06:51):
They didn't even really do it against Sin tonight where
they're like running away. Yeah, that's a long time ago.
That's Week one. So on the road, I do not
trust them to go and get this done. I just
think it's going to be a close game at the end. Yeah, no,
I'm with you, Okay, I have the same.
Speaker 3 (07:06):
I have the same I do have the Packers winning
the Packers, I have them winning, but I have Arizona
keeping it close.
Speaker 1 (07:13):
I I thought for our show game debut of taking
the Cardinals straight up, I just I just can imagine
it that they have a win that turns their season around.
But I don't need the win here. It's like why
I talked about last week. When I went with Atlanta,
I was like, I don't need the win, they just
need to cover. And same thing with the Patriots a
couple weeks ago. Maybe they will win. So if you're
(07:34):
into that, whatever, whatever the number is on the you're
I wouldn't I wouldn't tell you not to do that.
So Arizona plus six and a half is my first one.
All right, you're up next.
Speaker 3 (07:44):
Okay, what's the number you're seeing for Jacksonville and the Rams?
The Rams are favorite IC three. Yes, okay, I think
Jacksonville wins.
Speaker 1 (07:51):
Wow, straight up, straight up? Now tell me interesting. Are
you really gonna love NFL Daily forever?
Speaker 4 (07:58):
You know? Yep?
Speaker 3 (07:59):
Oh oh oh okay, yeah, we're old. We're really old.
If anyone gets that, congratulations.
Speaker 4 (08:04):
People are going to get it's popular song.
Speaker 2 (08:06):
It's a great song. A couple of things.
Speaker 3 (08:08):
One, I don't think Poka nukula will play, and I
don't think that's accurately priced into this line. So without pukakua,
the math becomes quite different. Matthew Stafford's passer rating with
targeting Devonte Adams or everyone else just a lot worse.
Pooka is so important to this offense, and not to
say that Sean McVay can't figure some things out, but
(08:30):
the Jags defense is pretty good.
Speaker 4 (08:32):
Now.
Speaker 3 (08:32):
They're without Devin Lloyd, who is the league's interception leader,
but they've got a number of other pieces that are
also pretty good. Even though they're not getting a ton
of pressure up front, the things that they're doing on
the back end are helping them out significantly so. And
the Jags, by the way, like London's their second home.
They have this is we talk about it all the time.
They've played fourteen games abroad or something. This will be
their fourteenth game. They're seven to six all in London.
(08:54):
I think that they have a better like like the
day they get the schedule is more set.
Speaker 2 (09:01):
The Rams will get there till Saturday. Do you know
your heart?
Speaker 4 (09:04):
That is?
Speaker 3 (09:05):
I mean, I just did that, and I'm like, I'm
an old a regular old analyst. I'm not trying to
run at people and hit things and be violent. I
was just trying to get to London, you know.
Speaker 1 (09:17):
Right knowing that organization, there's certainly one that is into
sleep science and everything like that, and I think there's
a lot of disagreeing theories of what's better for your
body clock. They determined that staying in Baltimore all week.
They're not doing any media over there. They're arriving, like
you said, Saturday morning, and then we'll play twenty four
(09:40):
hours later. That is the latest any team's ever showed up.
Plenty of teams have showed up on Friday. The Chiefs,
I think, traditionally show up late in the week. That
do you feel weird getting off the plane? Absolutely, it
takes it's a it's a problem. If anything else, maybe
this is what the science is saying. I feel better
for the first twenty four to thirty six hours. Maybe
(10:00):
it's like it's almost still like a rush, and then
it sets in. That is difficult. I am with you.
I had the Jaguars covering the spread. It's not one
of the games I considered. I have the Rams winning,
so I don't feel strong about that game. I do
wonder if this Jaguars offensive line is not as good
as we thought. They played some good opponent for them,
(10:21):
like easy opponents early, and then last week they did
not look good. They're without they were without their center.
I think that could be a big deal if he
doesn't return. But we don't know that far.
Speaker 2 (10:29):
I think both things are true.
Speaker 3 (10:30):
Yeah, I don't think it's as good as the I
think it was like three sacks or four weeks something crazy.
Either four sacks or three weeks or three sex beforeus
either way.
Speaker 1 (10:38):
And they had two games where they didn't give up
a pressure that's right, including against the fact I.
Speaker 2 (10:42):
Think that was a little food gayzy.
Speaker 3 (10:44):
But I also think that it's a little bit false
to say that they're as bad as they looked against
the Seahawks as well. So I think both things are true.
I mostly think that the ability for Travis etn to
get some chunk yards plays. I know he was held
to just what twenty seven yards last week against Seahawk
sets very different defense. They don't have the back end
pieces on the Rams that are quite as great at
(11:04):
helping out, especially in that kind of run situation coverage
than they do on compared to the Seahawks. So the
Rams are they're just a different there's different teams.
Speaker 1 (11:12):
Yeah, you attack them on the ground. I think the
Jaguars have an advantage there that the Rams one of
the best rushing teams in the league. The Jaguars maybe
a little better set up to stop the run.
Speaker 4 (11:21):
That's close to a coin flip game for me.
Speaker 1 (11:24):
I am glad that we're sending all our UK London
residents a better game this week because the two games
overseas so far, really all three, if you go back
to Dublin, have been very close down to the wire
and they've all had moments.
Speaker 4 (11:42):
But that I do feel a little bad about.
Speaker 1 (11:44):
Sending Broncos Jets over there, And so I think we're
wrapping up the London portion with the best game yet.
Two good four and two teams. Okay, Like I said,
I have four picks. You're gonna help me cancel one out.
The first one was Arizona. The second one is such
a funky line Tampa Bay plus five and a half
that I feel like Vegas is trying to get everyone
(12:05):
to go with the Bucks. Or maybe they don't think
like that, like Patrick says, and maybe that's just what
the numbers say. And I know if you peek beneath
the hood, the Bucks haven't been as good really as
the record would indicate. But you know, they are like
number one in a lot of people's power rankings. They're
number literally the number one seed in the NFC right now.
(12:26):
I think for a reason, and that's that they're getting better.
They're actually getting healthier. And the reason I love this
and man, I have a hard time even picking the
lines to win straight up, although I did, but I
have it as a one point game is the Lions injuries.
It's a disaster week for them. They don't have their
two starting cornerbacks and they have to go up against
(12:46):
Baker Mayfield, and they don't have Brian Branch who's suspended.
And oh, by the way, Kirby Joseph doesn't look one
hundred percent. He's not really at practice. Taylor Decker, the
left tackle, might return to practice. He's up up in
the air as we're taping. Put it all up there,
and like, man, you're giving me five and a half
points for one of the best teams in the NFL.
Speaker 4 (13:05):
I love that one. I'm taking the bucks.
Speaker 2 (13:07):
Yeah, I have.
Speaker 3 (13:08):
I have a three point win for Detroit. So I'm
on the same side as you about that one. I
did not. I think that it was the combination of
I mean, a mecha Buka is not playing for sure,
Mike Evans.
Speaker 4 (13:20):
I think he's back.
Speaker 1 (13:21):
I'm going to assume Evans is priced is into my
pricing as back just on the optimism that Todd Bowles is.
Speaker 2 (13:27):
Saying, sure, but is he one hundred like back or back?
Speaker 4 (13:31):
Right?
Speaker 1 (13:31):
Because Chris Godwin was back a couple of weeks back,
you know, like, so he's not back anymore, by the way.
Speaker 3 (13:37):
No, he's unback. He went back to being unbacked whatever the.
Speaker 4 (13:41):
Finn at receiver. But yeah, they've shown that they can
overcome that.
Speaker 3 (13:44):
Of course, but but it helps against the that helps
the Lions, because I mean, look what we saw from
the Lions last week against Patrick Mahomes was getting crushed
when Patrick used an intermediate pass. Just death by a
thousand paper cuts, right, like or intermediate passes are the
paper cuts here. But I don't think that the see
the difference is is Baker's ability to have you know,
(14:08):
there's no Xavier Worthy plus Hollywood Brown plus Travis Kelce
plus they just don't have that debt.
Speaker 4 (14:13):
I give you a Ted Johnson. How about a little.
Speaker 2 (14:15):
You try to sell me on a test?
Speaker 1 (14:17):
How about like an aged nineteen or in maybe two
thousand nineteen version of Sterling Shepherd's kind of like popping up,
I hear you. But that's why I took the lines
ultimately to win, and I trust their organization. They haven't
lost too straight for three years. Now, you trust me,
I've seen it. You don't think that matters, but I
do think, like great teams, great organizations, it's tough for
(14:41):
them to lose twice in a row. I think they
have a big time home field advantage, and that's why
I think it's a coin flip. I'd absolutely picked the
Bucks if it was in Tampa, but since it's in Detroit,
I'm taking the minds to win. But I wouldn't be
surprised with Bucks win straight up, doesn't matter. Five and
a half points.
Speaker 4 (14:54):
Is a lot.
Speaker 3 (14:55):
It's a lot. It's like they're begging us, which I'm
I'm a litri. It does feel like a little right,
I'm at a little kid. Here's some candy for you.
That does kind of feel.
Speaker 4 (15:04):
I feel good about it. So Bucks plus five and
a half, let's go with your third pick.
Speaker 3 (15:09):
I'm going for some symmetry here. I'm gonna end this
one with the Denver Broncos, and I think that they
win by more than seven. I think that as good
as we've seen the Giants, and I know it's been fun.
Speaker 2 (15:19):
I know they just beat the Eagles. I did watch it.
I saw it.
Speaker 3 (15:21):
I saw everything, and I saw what happened against the Jets.
But ahead of the game, all of those Denver players
who had been a week and on the East coast
in Philadelphia ahead of going to they were just over it.
And not to say that that's like you can't factor
that into the math. But what I'm looking at here
is JK. Dobbins, another guy who's grated explosive runs. That
(15:41):
is where the Giants can get got. I also watch
these screen passes, and what do the Denver Broncos do
screen screen?
Speaker 4 (15:48):
You want?
Speaker 2 (15:48):
Do you want to? Let's run a screen line? The
Giants screen screen screen.
Speaker 3 (15:52):
And you know who gives up a ton of yards
to screen passes?
Speaker 4 (15:55):
The Giants.
Speaker 3 (15:56):
So as good as their front is, I think that
the O line plus the screen pass plus the run
game for the Broncos, and plus how nasty that Denver
defense is there, that defense is firing on all cylinders.
Nick Bonito is I'm not suggesting that the that the
that the front isn't great for the Giants, but the
back end and the linebacker level nowhere near the caliber
(16:17):
of what the Broncos are bringing.
Speaker 4 (16:19):
Love it.
Speaker 1 (16:20):
What does your computer model do with extra rest?
Speaker 4 (16:23):
Does it matter at all?
Speaker 2 (16:25):
Depends It depends on the extra rest.
Speaker 1 (16:27):
Right, So the Giants in this case, you have four
extra days rest and.
Speaker 2 (16:31):
They get weak neighbors back.
Speaker 3 (16:33):
No, oh okay, now that would be a difference.
Speaker 1 (16:37):
He's going to be out the rest of the year.
That's priced into all their numbers. They get the extra rest,
and Denver's coming all the way back from London. Sometimes
you know, I don't know if you can factor that in,
but that does seem like a lot.
Speaker 4 (16:51):
I saw something for what it's worth.
Speaker 1 (16:53):
They're the they're the first team, like in Mountain or
Pacific to ever come back from London and play the
next week. It's usually up to the teams if they
want to take the buy the next week after going overseas,
they do not have.
Speaker 3 (17:08):
It's also alumni weekend, and if you're into like this
sort of thing, they're honoring de Marius Thomas in this one,
so and you know he's like the heartbeat up. I'm
just saying, so if you're looking at these extra factors,
it's alumni weekend. DT's getting his whatever. The version of
the Broncos Ring of Honor is whatever that.
Speaker 1 (17:26):
Is, and so I've kept this in my pocket. But
I disagree who I strongly disagree. But I'm happy that
you took the Broncos minus seven because what it did
for me is it made up my mind which pick
of mine I'm going to eliminate because Giants plus seven
was one of my four picks I really liked. And
(17:48):
I want us both to shine right now. We are
both on a winning streak despite one of your only
two losses in the last two weeks combined was when
we went head to head. I don't want to guarantee
one of us is getting a loss when we each
winning weeks back to back weeks. So I will just
put that in my pocket. That's just an extra pick.
Everyone who's listening knows I feel differently, and I will
(18:10):
make the case just briefly, which is okay. I made
the rest case, which I think matters a little bit
to me. They both just played Philadelphia. If you're going
to do the pythagoream theorem, I mean, who looked like it.
Speaker 4 (18:24):
Was like the biggest thing ever was.
Speaker 3 (18:26):
When j Where's Jalen Carter? How do you factor him
not playing? Okay, that's fair he's like, I don't like this,
I'm just playing.
Speaker 1 (18:32):
We both are feeling great after beating the Eagles. I mean,
the Giants looked even more impressive beating the Eagles. I
liked what I thought saw out of the Giants defense
last week. I thought they were more creative, really.
Speaker 2 (18:44):
Confused, they more creative or I think they.
Speaker 1 (18:47):
Stole some stuff from the Broncos because they were sure,
but they were showing more of like.
Speaker 3 (18:52):
Tell me what you're thinking about that Eagles offense being
creative and I will wait.
Speaker 4 (18:55):
Right, fair, I will wait.
Speaker 1 (18:56):
But what they did was they showed some of the
simulated press that they wanted wanted. They showed some post
snap movement, like the things that we haven't seen out
of Shane Bowen and that Giants defense very often. I
thought they did well, like some run blitzes, all this stuff.
I was like, Okay, that's great. And then the bigger
factor here is you know since Jackson Dart took over. Yeah,
(19:17):
they're two and one and they've covered twice the Broncos.
And I was thinking about this because they are not
they the Saints and you know why five Street term
uh huh.
Speaker 3 (19:29):
You know, you know what happens when you have a
lot of pressure, like the most pressure in the league.
Speaker 4 (19:32):
Yeah, that could happen.
Speaker 1 (19:34):
You know how many times the Broncos have covered all year,
because I was thinking about it.
Speaker 4 (19:37):
They have not really had many convincing games.
Speaker 1 (19:41):
And that's why when I see seven and I wouldn't
be that shocked if the underdog wins the game, which
I personally would not be that shocked this week obviously
you would.
Speaker 4 (19:50):
Then I just like taking that many points.
Speaker 1 (19:52):
The Broncos have only covered twice all year, you know,
Once was as the underdog to the Eagles, which by
the way, was my pick that week.
Speaker 4 (19:59):
The other time was against the Bengals.
Speaker 1 (20:00):
You pack them straight up, but they've They've had some
spots where they're heavy favorites against the Titans and and
other times where their favorites and they and they haven't won.
So I just thought, if you look at these two teams,
I think they're closer than people think.
Speaker 4 (20:11):
But you disagree.
Speaker 1 (20:13):
And the math the model has been right again and
again over the years for good reasons. So I'm happy
to just have that be my just put put it
in the pocket. So what's the official Oh, that's right,
I need it's Chiefs minus eleven and a half. It's
not fun. You made fun of me last week for
switching into like rams or like that's not exciting. And
(20:34):
their minus seven and a half against the Ravens. It's
all exciting when you know, you get exciting. Yes, so
to be this is just an old school Kansas City team.
You you probably don't have these numbers right in front
of you because they might ask you ahead of time,
But just do you have an overall efficiency metric for
offense and defense? Because okay, what what is the Chiefs
(20:56):
right now on offense?
Speaker 4 (20:57):
Well?
Speaker 3 (20:58):
If factors in the whole season? Are you talking week?
I mean even the whole season, the whole season.
Speaker 1 (21:02):
Yeah, well, I'm guessing it's really high for what it's worth.
Speaker 4 (21:06):
I'll let you look it up.
Speaker 2 (21:07):
Look at it.
Speaker 1 (21:08):
Yeah, DVOA has them as the number two offense now
in the league and the number eighteen defense. No, that's perfect,
and like what is the defense? Somewhere more in the middle.
I would guess it's an old school Chiefs team, is my.
Speaker 2 (21:21):
After last week it's fourteen?
Speaker 1 (21:23):
Yeah, so this is these are the Chiefs teams we
grew up, you know, we were just little kids when
they little whip, when when they were going up and
down the field and Patrick Mahomes was winning his first MVP. Uh,
it's an old school type of Chiefs team that I
can recognize. A great offensive line and I'm maybe a
good to great offensive line, Mahomes making plays on the move,
(21:44):
Mahomes making plays down the field, and then team of speed.
You are taking Juju Smith Schuster off the field, going
from probably about forty snaps to about twelve. He'll be
in there for run blocking. And then you are inserting
Rashi Rice into those snaps almost the same role, who
looked fantastic by the end of last year, who I
(22:07):
just think is gonna take off, and you have him
and Worthy and when they want to use Thorton on
the field all at the same time. Man, this is
a fast defense with a lot of pass pro against
a Raiders team that just can't protect.
Speaker 4 (22:19):
Forget it. Yeah, I mean put up thirty five to fourteen.
Speaker 1 (22:23):
I apologize to Gino Smith, but I just think this
Raiders seems one of the worst teams in the league.
Speaker 2 (22:28):
Since twenty eighteen.
Speaker 3 (22:29):
The win margin averaged for the Chiefs thirteen point three points.
So I'm actually with you, I have a thirteen point win.
Let's go for she Rice. This was interesting. You know
how conservative my model tends to be. Yes, well, prior
I looked at it like without and with Rashie Rich
just because I was curious what difference he would make
in this one.
Speaker 2 (22:46):
And it's one full point.
Speaker 4 (22:48):
That's a lot, lot for a receiver.
Speaker 2 (22:49):
That's a lot for me.
Speaker 3 (22:51):
Like, that's like, that's I mean, there's some quarterbacks that
don't give a one.
Speaker 4 (22:56):
Point that's great, that's crazy.
Speaker 3 (22:58):
But it's also the matchup, right, the matchup where you
now have you know, the secondary of the Raiders, this
one where it's not maybe the strongest.
Speaker 1 (23:07):
Yeah, you've talked about the intermediate game last week for
the Chiefs, and you can you can imagine the safeties,
the linebackers for the Raiders getting picked on. All right,
your picks are Denver plus seven or minus seven rautds.
Speaker 2 (23:17):
I say I'll take Denver plus seven all day. There
we go.
Speaker 4 (23:20):
Yep.
Speaker 1 (23:20):
You have the Broncos as a touchdown favorite at home.
You have the Jets as a one and a half
point underdog doggy at home.
Speaker 4 (23:26):
Just that's spicy.
Speaker 1 (23:28):
And then you have the Jaguars in London technically a
home game, but we.
Speaker 4 (23:33):
Know that it's a neutral game.
Speaker 1 (23:35):
I would say for this so that the Jaguars will
have more fans than the Rams there.
Speaker 4 (23:38):
I don't know.
Speaker 2 (23:39):
I think those fans are hilarious. I was a big fan.
Speaker 3 (23:42):
Like they're just fans of the whole sport, the songs,
all of it. You know you've been the fans are great.
Fans are awesome.
Speaker 4 (23:48):
I've been to a lot of the international games.
Speaker 1 (23:50):
Now, the Dublin crowd was different because it was a
Steelers home game. It was really crazy to see a
Steelers home game in Dublin. But so many Dublin and
Steelers fans and so many people just travel traveled for
that game. Patrick Queen even said it afterwards like they
were louder throughout than the home crowd in Pittsburgh. But
this this week, it'll just be a great celebration of football.
(24:12):
My picks, you crossed me out from going Giants plus seven.
I don't want to go against you, so that's just
an extra one. But I go Chiefs minus eleven and
a half, Bucks plus five and a half and the
Cardinals the other one.
Speaker 3 (24:25):
Just keep it an eye the Cardinals, you're getting five
and a half to six and a half, six and
a half for the Cardinals.
Speaker 4 (24:30):
Do not take that point away.
Speaker 2 (24:31):
Sorry, no, no, no, I thought it was five and a half.
So six and a half.
Speaker 1 (24:33):
It's a juicy one. I was hoping it get up
to seven. It did not. I was keeping an eye
on that Washington game. But now the injury reports so weird.
With Deebo and Terry mcclaurin.
Speaker 3 (24:43):
I think that whatever the number is, whatever the number is, though, yeah,
I think that it's too low. I think that's going
to be like to the Moon game.
Speaker 1 (24:51):
Oh in terms of the over under, I got you. Yeah,
I agree with you on that as well. So just
keep an eye on the injury pere. I do kind
of like the Commanders. All right, that is it for
our Week seven picks. We're making some progress here in
terms of the season, and we're making progress in terms
of our picks. We will be back Sunday night myself,
Patrick Claybahn, Jordan rod Rigg, and Nick Shook for your
(25:11):
Week seven recap.
Speaker 4 (25:13):
We will see you that
Host
Gregg Rosenthal
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