JJ Zachariason on His ZAP Model and Running Back Prospects

Marcas Grant and LaQuan Jones start the show with the latest NFL quarterback news, including updates on Deshaun Watson, Kyler Murray, and Trevor Lawrence.

Then JJ Zachariason of Late-Round Fantasy Football joins to discuss his ZAP model for evaluating draft prospects and shares the running backs he likes in the upcoming draft (14:46).

The NFL Fantasy Football Podcast is part of the NFL Podcast Network.

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:11):
Hey everybody, It's Thursday, April tenth, twenty twenty five. Welcome
to the NFL Fantasy Football Podcast.

Speaker 2 (00:16):
For Draft season. Just needs to hurry up.

Speaker 1 (00:17):
It's me and your man, MG, Marcus Grant, joined by
Lakwan Jones Michael at Florio. Right now, he's probably somewhere
over like Omaha or something.

Speaker 3 (00:26):
Yeah, he's in the air right now.

Speaker 2 (00:27):
He's in the air.

Speaker 1 (00:28):
Right now. He is on his way back to the
homeland of the East Coast for a wedding. So we
wish him well. Hopefully it is a good time. He'll
be back with us next week. But otherwise, Okay, we
got business to attend to correct.

Speaker 3 (00:43):
Yeah, we do. We got to get some stuff done.

Speaker 1 (00:45):
Got some stuff done. Draft season continues along. We are
doing our second part of our running back preview and
help us out with that. We're gonna talk to JJ Zacharice.
We're talking to the late round quarterback to talk about
running backs.

Speaker 2 (00:58):
JJ Zacharice is gonna stop.

Speaker 1 (01:00):
His Late Round Prospect guide is out and will get
his thoughts on some running back evaluation sort of how
he approaches the process and some guys that he likes
and maybe doesn't like quite as much for this year's draft,
So stick around for that for sure, But it means
I do have a little bit of news to dive into.
I don't know if these count as news headlines LQ
as much as.

Speaker 3 (01:20):
It's slow around this time, talk about something.

Speaker 1 (01:23):
Vibes, I'm not sure whatever you want to call them.
First in Cleveland, Cleveland dish, John Watson has said that quote,
everyone is doubting me that he's gonna come back way
better than before.

Speaker 4 (01:39):
Uh yeah, yeah, look, everybody is doubting him. I mean, honestly,
that's true. I just don't know if the return is
going to be as great as he thinks, you know,
like everybody could be optimistic, but I think we're kind
of done with the Deshaun Watson project.

Speaker 1 (02:00):
I mean, that's that was gonna be. My question is that, like,
will there be a return? You know, obviously the injuries
have happened and that has sort of delayed any possible return.
But on top of it, he was just flat out
bad when he played last year, And at this point

(02:22):
you can't ignore the baggage, right, the allegations that that
followed him in his time away, the things that he
has said that has really that.

Speaker 2 (02:31):
Really brought more scorn upon him.

Speaker 1 (02:35):
I mean, I think a lot of times Deshaun Watson
has been his own worst enemy in terms of this,
you know, attempt to rebuild his NFL career. I don't
think you can ignore all of that. And I just
I wonder, with all of that taken into account, is
there really a team out there that's going to take
a chance on Deshaun Watson.

Speaker 2 (02:57):
Uh?

Speaker 1 (02:57):
You know, I guess at a super super discounted the
Browns pay the entirety of his salary.

Speaker 2 (03:02):
But I just I don't.

Speaker 1 (03:03):
I just don't see an avenue for Deshaun Watson to
seriously make a comeback in the NFL.

Speaker 4 (03:08):
Like there's only one team that comes to mind, and
he happens to be on that team. And I don't
think they're gonna be crazy enough to run it back,
because like there's no team out there right now that
is like running to pick up that phone and like saying, okay, well,
if you guys pay majority of his salary, will take
him on because he doesn't have much on tape in
these last future a few years that have been great

(03:28):
that can say he's a starting caliber type of quarterback
in this league, Like we have guys that are just
kind of floating around, Like I would rather take on
to Mac Jones right now, I'd rather take James Winston.
We are a Winston podcast. Like there's other quarterbacks that
honestly they're backups or they're just journeymen or their bridge quarterbacks.
They've been playing a lot better than what DeShawn Watson

(03:49):
has put on tape. So I just honestly don't know
the team. And maybe in Canada and maybe overseas and
maybe somewhere else then I don't know, maybe it's another sport.
I just don't see it.

Speaker 1 (04:01):
Yeah, I just you know, I guess understandably, if you
are Deshaun Watson, this is kind of what you have
to say, right You're not gonna sit around and be like,
well it's a wrap, I'm done, Woe was me? Nobody's
gonna take a shot. I mean, I think you have
to sort of project that, But realistically, I just I
have a hard time see, you know the fact that

(04:24):
the Browns might decide to rock with Kenney Pickett.

Speaker 2 (04:29):
At quarterback because that's how bad it was.

Speaker 1 (04:31):
I mean, I just think in terms of not only
what it brought on the field, what it's costing you,
and just the massive hit in reputation, public relations, however
you want to describe it. Just all the things that
have gone along with the Deshaun Watson experience in Cleveland.
I can't see them deciding to run it back with him,
and I just don't see that any other team. Look,

(04:54):
I'm gonna break my own rule here. Teams are waiting
around on Aaron Rodgers right, nobody's coming up to de
Shaun Watson.

Speaker 2 (04:59):
I did.

Speaker 1 (05:00):
I hate that, I did it. I hate myself for it.
It's okay, but yeah, yeah, it's I think I think
it's it's it's.

Speaker 4 (05:09):
A wrap for Browns fans. Man, they're the most strongest
and loyal fan base out there. Because, boy, if this
was the Rams, I don't know if I could even
put this shirt on early I got because boy it
has been tough.

Speaker 1 (05:23):
Yeah, I mean they are the uh, they are the
meme of like Lord Whitey, is he giving me your
toughest battles?

Speaker 5 (05:28):
Like?

Speaker 2 (05:29):
You know, that's that's Cleveland Browns fans. Fine me, why me? Lord?
Why me? Lord? Other quarterback names.

Speaker 1 (05:37):
Kyler Murray says he is open to running Moore in
twenty twenty five and now Oakwan. We've talked about Kyler
on this show a number of times over the last
couple of months. I think our consensus was sort of
that we have seen generally the best of Kyler Murray,
that he's kind of hit his ceiling, but also that
I think we sort of overvalued him because we all

(05:59):
remember the one big rushing season right when he had
over eight hundred yards that was a big part of
his game. We were all sort of hoping that is
who he would be and that never really came back again.
I'm not gonna sit here and tell you that Kyler
Murray's gonna run for eight hundred yards in twenty twenty five,
But I mean, could we see Kyler at five six
hundred yards? And if so, is that enough for you

(06:21):
to sort of get back in on him? Because it
feels like everybody's kind of meh on Kyler right now.

Speaker 4 (06:26):
This is kind of weird to me because like, aren't
you controlling your legs and you have the decision making
to just run, Like there's been times where you see
him sail the ball over Marra Harrison Junior down the sideline.
Why didn't you just run out of the pocket, you
know what I mean. And then there's been times where
he's taken some really silly sacks, and you know, it's
just like, I don't feel like this is motivating me

(06:46):
to be like back in on the Kyler Murray like
rushing more trading, because we've been through this, We've kind
of seen this, and even if it is five hundred
to six hundred yards, it's this offense going to be
able to elevate him back to like QB one conversation.
I don't know, there's so many question marks around this
in terms of him being a fantasy asset for a roster,

(07:07):
having that rushing upside again. I rather go after the
Justin Fields. I'd rather go for other guys that are
just semi mobile than a Kyler Murray who hasn't been
giving the bang for your buck, like the ADP hasn't
been given back to us, and we could be happy
at the end of the season with the type of
production we're getting out of him. So I don't know.
I think this is just him talking again. I mean, hey,

(07:28):
you got the biggest Greg dors fan right here that
listen to him saying if he was a little bit
taller he would be a wide receiver one. Like you're
you're hearing Kyler speak and you hear him talk like this,
and it's like, I'm not sold yet. Man, you got
to show me. Man, you burnt me way too many times.

Speaker 1 (07:42):
So I say this, like, as I was sitting here
talking about and you were talking about, and I went
and looked five hundred and seventy two rushing yards last year,
five rushing touchdowns. You know, the rushing totals were the
yardage numbers. I should say, we're the best that he's
had since that twenty twenty season, the one that we
all are pining for again, right, the one that we
all want to come back.

Speaker 2 (08:03):
He did finish as the QB ten.

Speaker 1 (08:05):
It didn't necessarily feel like it, but he was a
fringe QB one, And I guess maybe that's the part
that's sort of frustrating, is that it just feels so oatmeal,
right when we want something a little we at least
want oatmeal with some fruit in it, right, but like
it just it right, something right, It just but it just.

Speaker 2 (08:25):
Didn't feel that way.

Speaker 1 (08:26):
But again, if that's where he ends up, if he's
at five seventy five, if he's at six hundred yards,
if you can get five to seven rushing touchdowns out
of him, maybe he does pay off that ADP.

Speaker 2 (08:38):
Maybe he more than pays off that ADP.

Speaker 1 (08:40):
Because it just it feels like in general, everybody is
just kind of like people don't hate Kyler Murray.

Speaker 2 (08:46):
You aren't, like I'm avoiding Kyler Murray.

Speaker 1 (08:48):
But it also feels like you you don't you don't
plan for Kyler Murray.

Speaker 2 (08:53):
You settle for Kyler Murray.

Speaker 4 (08:55):
Yeah, but it's unfortunate though, because like it's like the
passing numbers don't match his like ceiling for rushing, Like
he's banging us on both sides, I mean Paul's but
we're still looking at it like we're we're looking at
Baker Mayfield, like look at his rushing numbers last season,
but look at his passing numbers as well on how
he was able to perform and execute in that end zone,

(09:16):
Like these are things that Kyler is lacking. Like we
know what the ceiling can be for Kyler as a runner,
and we know where the arrow is pointing for this offense.
Hopefully they address some issues in the draft and grab
another wide receiver so we can get this ascending Cardinals
offense to a point as a ranser, and I hope
they don't get anywhere near us. But honestly, looking at it,
like Kyler could do so much more, but we haven't

(09:38):
gotten that, Like there's nothing that is proven, like, Okay,
he could do this this year because he got this,
Oh he could be a rusher. He's saying that he
wants to run more.

Speaker 3 (09:47):
Dude, run more. You should have had you control this,
like you don't need design.

Speaker 1 (09:53):
Runs, Like he's not like a guy that needs like, oh,
can you draw this up for me to run?

Speaker 4 (09:57):
No, you're one of the most elusive like quarterbacks in
the league where you just run at will, like you
have that ability and you have an old line that
could protect you so much, but you take these silly
sacks that just don't make sense to me.

Speaker 1 (10:11):
Yeah, No, I mean I do think there's just something
of like, hey, man, obvious to be smart about when
you run and how you run.

Speaker 2 (10:17):
But you can you can go.

Speaker 3 (10:19):
You can just do it.

Speaker 2 (10:20):
You can just go.

Speaker 4 (10:21):
That's why this stuffs to me, Like this wasn't like, oh,
we're so back Kyler's up, nah, man, Like you dude,
you can run if you want like.

Speaker 2 (10:29):
Just stop, just stop talking.

Speaker 1 (10:30):
I also like watching him run because he looks like
a toddler who stole the remote on your phone. Let's
just say, he's just like he's like you took your
phone and you're like, well come back, and he's just
like running away from you.

Speaker 2 (10:43):
With it.

Speaker 1 (10:44):
Last last headline here, Trevor Lawrence says he has not
set a solid date for his return from shoulder surgery,
that he's very optimistic. He thinks he's gonna be ready
to go for twenty twenty five.

Speaker 2 (10:55):
I'm glad I.

Speaker 1 (10:56):
Can't ask you this because I know how you feel.

Speaker 3 (10:57):
About Trevor Lawrence looking for my my sat he is.

Speaker 1 (11:02):
He's very much in the sackle of discontent for you,
I know. But look, Liam Cohen is there right, and
Liam Cohen has done some good things with quarterbacks. Could
that be enough to get you interested in trail? And
I'm not saying like you're spending a ton of draft capital,
but like no, no, as like as like I neede

(11:24):
a QB two that you slide in there who maybe
outperforms his ADP.

Speaker 2 (11:28):
Could you be interested in te law that way?

Speaker 4 (11:30):
There's only one thing that can get me in and
it's very unlucky to happen, and it's a the draft,
a Mecca Abuka. They have a spot for that slot,
and I honestly think this offense will be just foolproof,
like he couldn't fail. And if they grab one of these,
you know, solid tight ends out of this draft and
kind of feel that void where Evan Ingram is. They
just have to put the right pieces around him because

(11:52):
when they got Calvin Ridley, he wasn't being utilized properly
and we kind of saw how that happened. And then
Trevor Lawrence needs to stay healthy as well. Like these
one of the things that are kind of going under
the radar, like yeah, he's playing banged up, like you know,
they're going to the playoffs and they want to do
this and do that, but overall, he needs to step
up overall as a quarterback that's supposed to be this
generational talent.

Speaker 3 (12:13):
So it's like he has.

Speaker 2 (12:14):
To sailed by the way.

Speaker 4 (12:16):
Yeah, that's gone to John Allant Andrew luck Yeah, Yeah,
that's gone. That's that's over. That entered the bag of
satral discontented og. He's the one on one to reach
that height of going into that bag, but more so
looking at it like if they get a mecca, a
Buka or like even if it's not a mecca, like
get somebody there where he finds his strength set and
that's targeting that slot position. Like losing Christian Kirk and

(12:39):
Evan Ingram from a chemistry standpoint, it's going to take
some time for him to rev up to be that
quarterback we think he could be. And if Leon Cohen
can work his magic in this offseason and he comes
out the Gate week one, great cool. Now I won't
be campaigning for him to be drafted this year in fantasy,
but I won't be the number one hater if he
ends up a set you know what I mean, I

(13:01):
will take that to the chin, loosen a bag, take
him out of it. But Liam Coley could be the guy.

Speaker 2 (13:06):
He could be the guy that like.

Speaker 4 (13:07):
He brought back Baker, Like this is a back story
quarterbacks that go to Cleveland, it's over, it's curtains, it's
it's your first round, like did drowning Menzel's it's over,
it's gone, Like this is kind of what it's been.
But for him to bring back Baker and bring that
confidence and find what works for his strengths. I think
that that's what makes Liam Cohen so special.

Speaker 2 (13:27):
Yeah, I mean I'm very interested.

Speaker 1 (13:29):
The one thing that gave me a little bit of
pause was you said, like, uh, you know, if he
got a Mecca Abuka, then it would be can't miss.

Speaker 2 (13:37):
And I feel like we said the same thing about.

Speaker 1 (13:39):
Arizona last year when they got Marvin Harrison and and
it missed and miss bad, it missed, but they didn't
have a Brian Thomas junior.

Speaker 4 (13:47):
They didn't like Brian Thomas junior last year. I know
Liam Cohen took that job just because of him what
he can see that he can really just open the
playbook up with him. So I think that was like
one of the pieces to selling points. So I think
this can't be missed if they get that type of
dynamic wide receiver in that spot to his strengths, like
it has to be a move in the draft or

(14:07):
listen free Acy Over. I mean, who knows what happens then,
I mean they can get Tyreek Hill.

Speaker 2 (14:12):
Who knows. That's a whole other story that I'm not
touching right now.

Speaker 1 (14:17):
We're gonna let that bust, not letting that not look
until there's more actionable news there that's just not worth
really diving into that particular anyway, Enough about quarterbacks, We're
going to turn our attention to running backs by being
having a conversation with the late round quarterbacks. Stick around,
JJ Zach reason is going to come back and dive

(14:39):
into the running back draft class with us. That's coming
up next on the NFL Fantasy Football Podcast.

Speaker 2 (14:46):
Thank here on the.

Speaker 1 (14:47):
NFL Fantasy Football Podcast and happy to be joined by
a man of letters and science. Friend of the show,
the original East Coast Dad himself. You know him as
the late round quarterback. It is the one and only
JJ Zach Rea.

Speaker 2 (15:00):
JJ. Good to chat with you again. Always good to
see you, my friend. How are things.

Speaker 3 (15:04):
I'm good. I'm good and right back at you. You know,
it's it's draft season.

Speaker 5 (15:08):
I feel like it's kind of like a lull for
us in a way where we're just kind of like
waiting for something big to happen that's not just super
super neosy and is more actionable. But then once the
draft hits were like, I kind of want to go
back to that time where it was kind of lull,
you know, Yeah, I agree.

Speaker 4 (15:24):
I mean, look, we're all waiting for the biggest news,
right I mean, the anone Rogers news. Is he signing like,
can we get this over with?

Speaker 3 (15:29):
I'm sorry I had to bring it up.

Speaker 4 (15:30):
I mean, honestly, I'm over it.

Speaker 2 (15:33):
LaQuan just broke. You don't you're not aware this, JJ.

Speaker 1 (15:36):
But LaQuan just broke what has become the cardinal rule
of this show, which is we don't We don't speak
his name until he actually does something of our notes.

Speaker 4 (15:43):
You know, just try to summon him right now, just
sign as we're recording.

Speaker 1 (15:47):
He's Voldemort, He's football Voldemort. We don't need to summon
him at all. On the more serious, more pertinent things
right now, JJ, The Late Round Prospect Guide is now
out in the wild for folks to go pick it up.
And why to get you on to talk about, you know,
some of the prospects, mostly on the running back side
of things.

Speaker 2 (16:05):
But kind of want to start with the methodology.

Speaker 1 (16:08):
I mean, you you opened the guide talking about sort
of how you came about with this and how you
do your evaluations. You write about the Zapp model, and
for folks who may may or may not be familiar
with it, just kind of explain what exactly that is.

Speaker 3 (16:22):
Yeah.

Speaker 5 (16:22):
So, you know, a while ago, maybe like twenty nineteen
is time frame, twenty twenty timeframe, I realized that I
needed a more hardcore process for evaluating prospects.

Speaker 3 (16:32):
You know, a lot of what I was doing was
just kind of like field based.

Speaker 5 (16:34):
And you know, reading other things and doing my own analysis,
but it wasn't very structured. And so I said to myself, Hey,
I'm going to start to build a model. You know,
I have kind of a math background. I at least
understand that side of things. I didn't get my degree
in it or anything, when I at least understand the
math side of stuff. And so I started building this
model at running back and wide receiver, and it's sort of,

(16:55):
you know, changes and evolves every year. Last year I
officially named at the ZAP model, which is very creatively
named the Zacharyesen Adjusted Prospect Model. So yeah, the ZA
model basically looks at a way to project and predict
how well a running back or a wide receiver or
tight ends. There's a tight end model too, how well
they're going to perform across the first three years of

(17:17):
their NFL career. So it looks at a number of
different inputs. There's not a ton because I've learned through
the years that less is often more with modeling. But
you know, it looks at things like age.

Speaker 3 (17:28):
I have a.

Speaker 5 (17:29):
Metric called breakout score at both of the within both
of these models, which looks at age and strength of schedule,
so program adjusted receiving yards per team pass aten numbers.
You know, there's at the running back position, I look
at best season reception share, I'm looking at the size
of these players, you know, running back, I'm looking at
speed score so wait adjusted forty times. And then there's

(17:50):
draft capital, of course too, which is the number one
the biggest input is where these dudes get drafted. Because
at the end of the day, I to say this
to people like the is that model is there to
tell you when you should in your drafts and your
rookie drafts and your in your redraft leagues when you
should deviate from draft capital. Right, So a lot of
these guys are going to get drafted where the model
says they probably should get drafted. But you're gonna get

(18:13):
plenty of players who are overdrafted or underdrafted, and the
market's going to kind of follow suit. And that's where
you can pounce and find value or find players to avoid.
And so that's really what the model is there to do,
is to help you understand when a team reaches for
a player and you shouldn't reach for a player and
vice versa.

Speaker 4 (18:30):
Man, I love that model, the Z model, Like I
probably just feel like it just sounds so good coming
off the tongue. But man, you change the way you
evaluated running backs this year, Like why does sudden change?

Speaker 3 (18:39):
Like what kind of spawn that decision making?

Speaker 5 (18:42):
Yeah, so it's kind of strange. So the running back
model now doesn't have any rushing metrics in it, which
someone would hear that and they're going to say, this
model's trash. This is one of the dust thing's ever heard.
But yeah, So basically I tell like I said, I
test the model every year to make sure that I'm
you know, staying on top of things and whatnot. But
I also there's only so many hours in a day,
so I'm not testing as many things that could possibly test.

(19:04):
And one of the things that I realized this year,
so with the running back model. Last year, the breakout
score that metric I was talking about was based on
age and program adjusted total yards per team play so
just think of that.

Speaker 3 (19:18):
I mean, it's pretty intuitive metric.

Speaker 5 (19:19):
It's the number of total yards or running back gets
rushing and receiving, divided by the number of plays his
team ran, right, And so you take that number and
you adjust that for the age the running back was
in that given season, and also the strength of schedule
and program that that running back played for this year.
I just randomly decided to test receiving yards per team
pass attempt, which again pretty intuitive. It's the number of
receiving yards a player has divided by the number of

(19:41):
pass attempts as team through.

Speaker 3 (19:43):
And I did that.

Speaker 5 (19:44):
I've been doing that a wide receiver for a long time,
but I decided to do it at running back and
lo and behold, it got more signal in the model.

Speaker 3 (19:53):
It mattered more.

Speaker 5 (19:53):
And so I think a lot of people hear that
and they say, you know again, they think it doesn't
make any sense that I'm not using any rushing metrics.
But you have to remember I'm using other inputs here,
like draft capital for instance, where you know, if a
running back is drafted in round two or you know,
a round three or.

Speaker 3 (20:10):
Day two, generally speaking, he's going to be able to
run between.

Speaker 5 (20:13):
The tackles relatively well, right, or a round one guy
is gonna be able to do at all.

Speaker 3 (20:18):
Right.

Speaker 5 (20:18):
And what I've just realized through the years is that
we as fantasy managers should and we do, care a
lot more about pass catching than the NFL does. At
the position, PPR formats are the norm. We know that
even in standard leagues, a target is more valuable than
a rush attempt at the running back position. And so
I think what this is really doing is saying, Number One,

(20:40):
you know, I'm trying to solve something that the NFL
is not necessarily trying to solve.

Speaker 3 (20:43):
I'm trying to score fantasy points over here.

Speaker 5 (20:46):
The NFL might be trying to find a bruiser or
something and someone who can, you know, just take early
down work and run between the tackles. The other thing, too,
that I think should be noted is that when a
running back can do more than one thing, when he's
not just a between the ten runner, but he also
can catch balls out of the backfield and be that
versatile piece, that's a signal for talent. So sometimes these

(21:07):
running backs are big pass catchers in college, and they're
not big pass catchers in the NFL. But they're talented
enough running backs in the NFL, and it's sort of
as proxy and this signal that they are talented players
when they have that well rounded profile.

Speaker 3 (21:21):
That is why, at the end of the day, the
running back model now only includes receiving work because some
of the other stuff is already capturing that running back work.

Speaker 1 (21:29):
So I feel like a good measure for any model,
whatever it is, to sort of being able to go
back and apply it to past subjects and see whether
or not it sticks, right, I mean, it's one thing
to kind of look ahead, but definitely look back and
see if that you know, hey, if guys who turned
out to be good actually you're good in the model,
it feels like you're onto something. When you take this
sort of new model for running backs and you've applied

(21:52):
it to pass guys, did you find some changes in
the evaluation? Maybe guys that you didn't think of particularly
would be great at the time who actually fit them
up really well?

Speaker 3 (22:01):
Yeah.

Speaker 5 (22:01):
I mean, look, whenever i'm testing, I'm retesting to make
sure that as the NFL evolves, and I'm evolving with
this model too, you know, so everything dates back to
twenty eleven, like I said, and it's measuring, you know,
how all these guys.

Speaker 3 (22:13):
Do through the first three years of their NFL career.

Speaker 5 (22:15):
So every year during the offseason, I get to essentially
add another draft class to my testing subjects, if you will, right,
So now I'm testing everything through twenty twenty two as
opposed to through twenty twenty one, which was last year,
because now the twenty twenty two draft class has played
three years in the NFL, and I can sort of
see how they ended up performing how they've played. So
once I get that tested and done, I can say, okay,

(22:36):
I'm going to apply this model now to every running
back since twenty eleven. This will include you know, guys
who were drafted last year and in twenty twenty three,
and I can then see how things have changed and shifted,
you know, generally speaking, with a change like this, it
wasn't like dramatic across the boards, not like guys just
like had scores that were just so dramatically different, you know,
pre and post change. But there are a couple examples,

(22:56):
like Kyron Williams looks a little bit better, you know,
in this new iteration, because his receiving numbers were really,
really good in college that was recognized by the model
before because one of the other metrics that production metrics
that the running back model looks at his best season reception.

Speaker 3 (23:10):
Share, and he had that.

Speaker 5 (23:12):
You know, I notre dame like he had a decent
receiving profile from that perspective, But the difference is that
his breakout score looks looks decent, which is age adjusted
receiving yards per team pass attempt, and so you know,
he looked a.

Speaker 3 (23:24):
Little bit better, which was nice to see.

Speaker 5 (23:26):
The one example, though, Thugh, it was probably the most
interesting to me is Kenneth Walker. So Walker coming out
of college and I was pretty open about this. I
had question marks about what his receiving work would look
like at the NFL level, and for the first two
years of his career we didn't see much work through
the air from Kenneth Walker. I mean, he was a
sub you know, nine percent target share type back. And

(23:48):
then last year he got a little bit more work
as a receiver when they got the scheme change and
the new offensive coordinator there and Ryan Grubb. But Walker
actually had one of the best breakout scores in the
entire database, and that was despite the fact that he
had a really low best season reception chair because again,
before the model was looking at reception share as the
receiving mark. Now it's looking at breakout score as well,

(24:11):
and so his breakout score was really strong, his reception
share was not as strong. And the main reason for
that was is that immediately when he saw the field
he started at Wake Forest and he went to Michigan State.
Immediately when he saw the field, he was super efficient
as a receiver. He just wasn't getting a ton of
work as a receiver. And sometimes you see that kind
of dichotomy, that kind of difference, and you know it

(24:32):
at least now like levels things out a little bit,
and Kenneth Walker, you know, ended up being sort of
like a neutral prospect to.

Speaker 3 (24:38):
Me where I wasn't really high or low. If he
were coming out right now.

Speaker 5 (24:41):
I'd be high on Walker because of this new metric
in the way that I'm measuring things.

Speaker 4 (24:46):
Wow, I still kind of feel that way, Like I'm
kind of about kend of Walker, Like I don't know.

Speaker 3 (24:50):
I'm just like he's a guy. You know, it is
what is?

Speaker 4 (24:53):
But man, we're all in the fantasy streets. Man, I mean, honestly,
what is something you think a lot of people get
wrong when they're trying to you wate running backs.

Speaker 3 (25:01):
Yeah, you know, I think that obviously.

Speaker 5 (25:03):
I don't think that people necessarily are putting enough substance
and credit into pass catching and that element of a
player's profile. You know, even if again, even if he's
not going to be a pass catcher at the next level,
having that substance as a pass catcher goes a really
long way because it's a signal for talents.

Speaker 3 (25:20):
That's one thing I think.

Speaker 5 (25:22):
You know, running back size is a discussion that gets
brought up a lot, especially these days, because we've seen
you know, James Cook, Devon a Chan, Jamir Gibbs, he's
like small at Kyn Williams. These smaller backs be very
Bucky Irving be very relevant in fantasy football, and people
sort of use these one off instances to justify the
fact that it doesn't matter if you're big or small

(25:44):
at running back, you know, which I don't really agree
with because I think everything sort of works together. You know,
a guy like Jamior Gibbs, he has the best breakout
score in the entire model. He's got a great speed score, right,
so he's he's got good weight adjusted speed. You know,
he had a really good receiving profile. Devon a Chan
was a beast from a production standpoint in college. James Cook,

(26:07):
you know, he was at a big program, shared a
backfield with other pros. He had a really good production
profile and receiving profile. You know, the only guy that
in Like I said, with Kyen Williams, he looks better
in the model too. You know, Bucky Irving is I
think just an outlier in general, and it's okay to
be like, yeah, he's just a different kind of back
who ended up hitting and the model didn't capture that

(26:27):
quite as well as it could have.

Speaker 3 (26:28):
But size still does matter.

Speaker 5 (26:30):
Like if you're looking at ceiling at the running back position,
even when you adjust for where the smaller backs get
drafted all that kind of stuff, you wont guys who
were generally, you know, above two hundred and five two
hundred and ten pounds to be.

Speaker 3 (26:42):
Able to carry that big workload.

Speaker 5 (26:44):
It's not even because I think those running backs are better.
It's just how NFL coaches tend to operate, and they
have their own biases, you know. At the end of
the day, it's just it's unfortunate that a guy like
Bucky irv like Bucky Irivin didn't get a lot of
work until later in the season, partially because of that
coaching bias, you know. So I do think that's still
something that people should should keep in mind, is to
not use outliers to sort of justify their stances about

(27:06):
about running back size. I'd also say people ignore running
back age a little bit too much.

Speaker 3 (27:11):
That is one of the factors in the model.

Speaker 5 (27:13):
So likeie, you know, you could look at like RJ.
Harvey this year, who I like, but he's twenty four
years old and that's a little that's a little scary.
And then the last thing I'll say post draft, people
pay a little bit too much attention to landing spot.
And I know that that sounds counterintuitive and it could.
You know, you should look at landing spot, you should

(27:34):
look at situation. Situations just change so fast, man, I mean, like,
especially from a Dynasty perspective, in a year, things could
look totally totally different. So don't let that skew the
way that you view these guys too too much.

Speaker 1 (27:45):
Well, I mean, you think of landing spot, you talk
about things changing, Jonathan Brooks immediately comes to mind, right
like he gets to Carolina, we feel like, okay, well,
you know he's gonna Pushchuba Hubbard aside for sure. Right
then the you know, a couple of unfortunate injuries, tub
will get signed to an extension and souddenly, the outlook
for Brooks looks looks really different than it did, you
know a year or two ago, for sure. I'm you

(28:06):
mentioned Kenneth Walker and kind of interesting here, right because
now we live in this nil world where the porter trail,
the transfer portal is such a big deal. You talk about,
you know, Walker starting at wake Forest then moving over
to Michigan State to end his career.

Speaker 2 (28:21):
I know you talk about and write about.

Speaker 1 (28:23):
You know, sort of teammates and teammate adjusted evaluations, right,
like not penalizing a guy necessarily for playing with a
ton of studs around him. I mean, I think you
can look at any number of Alabama guys, I would say,
or Georgia guys out of the last few years and
sort of come up with that.

Speaker 2 (28:37):
But how do you sort of.

Speaker 1 (28:39):
Account for going to a place like wake Forest, which
is definitely not what you'd consider a football factory, over
to Michigan State, which has a little bit of a
better track record of putting guys in the NFL.

Speaker 3 (28:49):
Yeah, you know, the.

Speaker 5 (28:50):
Model is supposed to be adjusting for strength of schedule,
for breakout score, which really helps.

Speaker 3 (28:55):
And you know there are going to be schemes that
are going to be more friendly.

Speaker 5 (28:57):
Like I look at at you know, Woody Marx's coming
out this year from from the Great USC to Great USC.

Speaker 3 (29:05):
Coming out of USC.

Speaker 5 (29:06):
But he played at at Mississippi State before he transferred
to USC, and he played under Mike Leach, the late
Mike Leach. Mike Leach's offenses historically have just crushed the
running back position in terms of receiving. Like Max Borgie
saw a ton of work through the air. There were
other guys historically that did a lot through the air,
And so I can subjectively be like, Okay, Woody Marx

(29:27):
did this at Mississippi State, and the model's not gonna
necessarily pick up on this, but I can say, okay,
look like he's he's probably not as good of a
receiver as what these numbers are dictating now with Marx,
he then went to a different school and he continued
to be a.

Speaker 3 (29:40):
Pretty decent receiver.

Speaker 5 (29:41):
So that's obviously good but you can subjectively look at
that kind of thing.

Speaker 3 (29:45):
But also you know, when it comes to like scheme,
when it comes to.

Speaker 5 (29:47):
Situation, all that stuff, I think a lot of times
we just make excuses for these guys. You know, Like
a good example of this is with Quinn Shawn Judkins
this year, where you know, you get you get Travon
Henderson and Judkins in the same and backfield. Travon Henderson
sort of the quintessential pass catching back, quinch On Judkins
more than quintessential.

Speaker 3 (30:05):
Early down back.

Speaker 5 (30:07):
And so Judkins didn't have a great breakout score because
again that's all based off of age of justin in
program adjusted receiving numbers, and his best season reception share
wasn't that good either, And that was throughout college. It
wasn't just when Judkins was at Ohio State. It was
the same way when he was at Old Miss. Now
at Old Miss he also played with Zach Evans and
some other good running backs as well. But regardless, like

(30:27):
he never got there, he never showed it. And you
can look at historical trends like for instance, in the
ZAP model database, we've had twenty two running backs that
have been drafted in the top one hundred with breakout
scores below sixty. Judkins was well below fifty, and then
best season reception shares below ten percent. Only two of
those twenty two in the NFL during their first three

(30:49):
years had had a best season target share with a
minimum eight games played of nine percent, which is not
even that high. So a lot of these numbers are translating,
even if we can explain them away to some degree.
It's just that, you know, it's fine to be a
little more subjective with it. I'm not looking at this
model and saying I have to follow this no matter what.
You know, It's more of a guide for me to

(31:09):
kind of get an idea of a player to be
grounded and not get too high or too low.

Speaker 2 (31:13):
On some guys.

Speaker 4 (31:14):
So looking at the consensus top dogs, like when we're
talking Ash and Jen t Lamarin Hampton, Like, are these
two guys it doesn't matter where they land, like the
arrow's going to point out for them, Like the landing
spots shouldn't matter for their outcome for fantasy.

Speaker 5 (31:27):
Yeah, you know, like I said, like with the model
and the way that I sort of view this stuff
with prospecting, I'm trying to win a fantasy football at
the end of the day, like I don't necessarily I
wouldn't necessarily call myself like a talent evaluator the same
way that Matt Harmon does it with reception perception or
the way that you know, DJ does stuff with with
with his prospecting work, where they're sitting down grinding film

(31:51):
and you know, match charting it and others who are
looking at this stuff have a very strict way of
processing that information. I'm literally trying to find traits that
analytical traits that work, and I obviously watch these guys too,
because I.

Speaker 3 (32:05):
Don't want to sound like a moron when I'm talking.

Speaker 5 (32:07):
About I'm trying to find these analytical and these traits
that do coincide and correlate to success at the fantasy level,
which is a different game that I'm solving than someone
who is just saying this guy's talented, this guy's a
good fit for this team, et cetera, et cetera. So
when it comes to guys like a Marion Hampton and
Ashton Genty, I can look at the marks that I

(32:29):
know correlate well to NFL success in fantasy football, and
one of those marks is going to be draft capital,
and I can say, Okay, we know that Ashon Gents
is going to go in round one, right, I'd say
there's a better chance of not right now that Marion
Hampton's going to go Round one. Okay, if you look
at history since twenty eleven, of the first round running
backs we've seen sixty six percent of them have given

(32:51):
us sixteen or more PPR points per game in one
of their first three years in the league, which is wild.

Speaker 3 (32:56):
That's like an RB one season.

Speaker 5 (32:58):
And the guys who haven't done that, players like Josh
Jacobs who eventually got there, mark Ingram eventually got there,
or guys who just couldn't stay healthy like David Wilson
who had to retire early, or Rashad Penny who just
continuously got hurt. The only guys in the that have
been first round running backs that haven't given us at
least one of those good seasons across their first three
in the league since twenty eleven. The only two guys

(33:20):
that really didn't get there were Sony Michelle and Clyde
Edwards Hilaire, and both of them had some red flags
of their profile number one, but number two, they were
end of the first round picks.

Speaker 3 (33:28):
So they were barely first round picks to begin with.

Speaker 5 (33:31):
So I can tell you guys that like analytically, Ashton Genty,
Amari and Hampton, like Ashton, Gent's marks.

Speaker 3 (33:37):
Are otherworldly, like they are like top six.

Speaker 5 (33:40):
Basically every category among all running backs in the database
is history, which is wild because it's not just like
one metric Warre's top six. It's like breakout score, He's
up there, best season reception, Charry's out there, He's up there,
you know, totally ours per team play, which is even
part of the model, but he's up there in that.
And then Amari and Hampton, I think of all the
backs in this class, he's the one who gets the

(34:01):
best comps, the statistical, objective, analytical comps, like he gets
guys like Todd Gurley and Ezekiel Elliott. You know, Rashon
Penny was one of his comps as well. But to me,
like he checks a lot of the analytical boxes. If
he gets that draft capital, then then I'm going to
be all in. And I think that that Hampton is
going to be a stud regardless of where he goes.
If he does fault around too, I think it just

(34:21):
becomes a little bit more of a question mark.

Speaker 1 (34:23):
I want to dive into that idea of draft capital
a little bit too, a little bit more, but first we'll.

Speaker 2 (34:27):
Take a quick break.

Speaker 1 (34:27):
We'll come back more with JJ Zacharieson and the Late
Round Prospect Guides. Stick around for more on the NFL
Fantasy Football Podcast Jenny with JJ Zacharesa, you go and
get the Late Round Prospect Guide. We're having a chat
with him about running backs and you talk about, yeah,
that model and all that. You talk about draft capital,

(34:49):
and obviously you know, the understanding is you've pointed out
a couple of times, right like what you see or
what you read is not necessarily a hard and fast rule,
more of a suggestion sort of thing. We have gone
through the era of arguing whether or not running backs
matter for an actual NFL football team. I think the
consensus isn't. And I think, look, I think the consensus

(35:11):
is in fantasy running backs matter very much, right that,
no matter how much we push wide receivers, what have
you up the board. Look, we're still last year we're
talking about Christian McCaffrey near the top of the board.
This year we're talking about you know, whatever Bijon, Saquon whatever.
These guys still very much matter. But because there's still
a little bit of squeamishness about drafting running backs early

(35:35):
in real football, and we talk about draft capital and
fantasy football, how do you kind of square that circle?
I mean, like there will be people who I think
believe Ashton Gentz gets overdrafted, no matter what, do you
how do you how do you kind of reconcile stuff
like that?

Speaker 5 (35:51):
Yeah, I just separate the games, man, you know, like
football and I see football is just you know, it's
a game about numbers at the end of the day,
and I think a lot of times people want it
to really match closely to what's.

Speaker 3 (36:02):
Going on in the NFL, and that's why.

Speaker 5 (36:04):
We get super flex leagues and that's why we get
you know, to make quarterbacks more valuable. And that's that's fine,
Like we I would like to have quarterbacks be more valuable.
But at the end of the day, like this is
a game about numbers, you know, fantasy football, we're looking
at statistics and we're trying to find players who are
going to compile the best numbers and so you know,
whatever means necessary in terms of figuring that out, and
so they're like, I do think that the NFL is

(36:26):
going to value running back a little bit more than
it did, say, five years ago, just because of what
we saw last year with that free agency class, and
then this year we you know, we we uh conveniently
have an unbelievable running back class. So I think teams
are gonna be more willing to just say, oh, look
look at what happened in Philadelphia. Even if there's a
bad correlation causality situation going on there, teams are still

(36:49):
going to say, look what happened with sa Quon Barkley,
Look what happened to Derrick Henry, And they're gonna want
to have a running back they.

Speaker 3 (36:55):
Can rely on.

Speaker 5 (36:55):
And honestly, just from like a schematic standpoint, it makes
sense to just want to use one running back to
not show your hand when that guy's on the I've
never understood that aspect of things. That's something that Sean
mcvayh has done really well with is that, you know, like,
that's why I think that teams should just rotate running
backs by drive rather than by situation and down right,
so you know, mcveig running Kien Williams into the ground

(37:18):
has just as much to do with the fact he
doesn't want to show his hand as it does Kien
Williams being a good running back. You know, it's a
it's an important piece for a coach understand. But you know,
at the end of the day, like whether or not
we think running backs are valuable or not from a
real football standpoint, there are always going to be teams
and there's always going to be a Pete Carroll that
is going to want to draft that running back early.

(37:41):
It's going to happen. And that's something that like I
used to get this question all the time when it
came to my modeling and stuff in the ZAP model,
because obviously draft capital is an input and people would
say things like, well, what about with running backs being
devalued and blah blah blah blah.

Speaker 3 (37:55):
You can look back till.

Speaker 5 (37:56):
Since twenty eleven, which is when this thing dates back to,
there's no sort of like like rhyme or reason for
where running back like we're seeing first round running backs
all the time. Like it didn't stop, you know, it
stopped whenever the running back class sucked. It didn't stop
me because people devalued running backs when there's a good
running back, he will get drafted in the first round.
And so to me, it's just a proxy, a signal,

(38:17):
whatever you want to call it, a way to say
if a team is going to invest first round draft
capital in Ashton Gente, I can sit there and say,
that's probably not the best use of your resources, but
my gosh, he's probably gonna be really good in fantasy football.

Speaker 2 (38:31):
I'mnna draft them everymore.

Speaker 4 (38:33):
Well, how about this, like guys that blow up one
year in college? Like how worried should folks be about?
Like a camp Scataboo, Like where where is your you know,
thoughts on that.

Speaker 3 (38:44):
Yeah, you know, it depends on the player obviously.

Speaker 5 (38:47):
You know, Skataboo is interesting because he you know, he
played at Sacramento State where it just like like the
production doesn't matter until he does transfer, and then the.

Speaker 3 (38:54):
Production starts to matter a little bit more. You know.

Speaker 5 (38:57):
I try my best in the model to at least
adjust for I know, this guy is a isn't a
running back. But there's a wide receiver in this year's
class named Isaac Tesla, and he played he started at
his collegiate career before finally transferring to a bigger program.
But he he started his collegiate career at Hillsdale College.
Shout out Hillsdale College. Never heard of the place in
my entire life. And his numbers were obviously like out

(39:20):
of control at Hillsdale College because he's playing against non
professional type athletes. I mean, they're better athletes than any
of us are, but you know they're not there, They're
not D one athletes, So he should dominate in those situations.
Similar like Camp Skataboo. You know, if a running back
is playing at a smaller school than no one's heard
of before and he's not putting up decent numbers, that's

(39:43):
a red flag.

Speaker 3 (39:44):
That's where I that's when I start to get a
little bit nervous.

Speaker 5 (39:46):
Skataboo, though, dominated at Sacramento State, and then he transfers,
you know obviously in Arizona State and he does what
he did, you know, his final year. I think that
he probably has the second best production profile in this
class behind Ashton gent Does. I mean, I think he's
the second best running back because there's an age factor there.
He's an older running back. You know, there's gonna be
draft capital his forty time. You know, he didn't run

(40:09):
into combine, but he had a pro day forty that
was still not that strong. I like Skataboo, but you know,
there's other things that will bring him down. But strictly
from a production standpoint, I actually think it's it's pretty.

Speaker 2 (40:17):
Good shout out to the Hillsdale Chargers.

Speaker 1 (40:19):
And I absolutely did not look that up at all
and completely knew that off the top of my head.
You know, you talk about using receiving prowess as part
of your evaluation, and that's the thing that we've talked about,
especially when you look at the you know, the later
day to day three guys that it feels like their
best path to getting on the field or at least
having fantasy production.

Speaker 2 (40:39):
Let's put it that way. Then having fantasy.

Speaker 1 (40:40):
Production is being able to contribute in the passing game, right,
because those guys may not get a big.

Speaker 2 (40:45):
Opportunity to run the football.

Speaker 1 (40:47):
I always talk about some guys who in college, they
come out of college, people have questions about their past
catching ability, and I wonder whether or not it's that
a guy can't catch the ball, or if it's just
because of the scheme of his offense they didn't give
him an opportunity to catch up, like I said this
about Jonathan Taylor. I'm like, well, is it that Jonathan
Taylor just is a bad pass catcher or is it

(41:08):
just Wisconsin didn't throw the ball to its running backs?
You know a whole lot. I mean, how do you
look at guys like that? How much do you evaluate
just the way the offense works in terms of trying
to figure out whether a guy is actually able to
contribute in a passing game.

Speaker 3 (41:21):
Yeah, it's a great question. I think a lot of
people look at.

Speaker 5 (41:24):
Raw data and they say, oh, this guy wasn't much
of a pass catcher, like Caleb Johnson's a really good
example of that in this year's class, where his receiving
numbers were not strong raw data wise throughout his three years.

Speaker 3 (41:35):
But actually, when.

Speaker 5 (41:36):
You give that context and you see that Iowa last
year through the ball the six fewest times in D
one football, and you know, obviously when the team's not
throwing the ball that much, you know, regardless of how
often they're targeting a guy, they're not going to see
high totals. Caleb Johnson actually had a decent reception share
this past year, is actually well above average compared to

(41:56):
the rest of the class. So all the numbers that
I'm looking at will give that at some context. Now,
there's gonna be situations where, you know, Damian Martinez is
an example of this, where you know, Martinez had had
a best season reception share of five point four percent,
which is really low. His breakout score was only forty one.
He does not have that strong of a receiving profile,
and that that scares me. That's a that's a red

(42:18):
flag like that in and of itself. And then you know,
I'll talk to some people who maybe look at the
stuff in more detail than I do. And you know,
I had I talked to Matt Waldman on my podcast
last week and he mentioned with Damian Martinez, who he's
higher on than I am. You know, he mentioned with
Damian Martinez that his offensive system before he transferred to Miami,
it was one where the quarterback would take a lot
of play action bootlegs and he'd go out to the outside.

(42:39):
The running back, Damian Martinez would go to the other
side of the field. The defense would focus in on
Martinez because he's that good of a player in that
situation that the quarterback can't throw the ball to the
running back, you know, like he's on the opposite side
of the field. You're all of a sudden running a
trick play if you're gonna if you're gonna throw the ball,
you know, and give the running back the ball in
that in that situation now, So so I think that
you can give context to those situation. With that being said,

(43:01):
I just go back to what I said earlier, where
Like I don't want to make too many excuses for
players because that often can lead to you having too
rosie of an outlook on a particular guy, like, for.

Speaker 3 (43:11):
Instance, Damian Martinez.

Speaker 5 (43:13):
His his reception share is so low that in the
zapmodel database, there's only been two running backs with a
reception share as low as his who have scored thirteen
or more PPR points per game across their first three
years in the league. So, like, I know of just
from a probability perspective, that the chance at Damian Martinez
hits at a high rate, probably not super super high,

(43:34):
just on that data point alone, And then I can
just contextualize it a little bit and say, he's probably
one of the better interior runners you know, in this
class if he does find a place, Like how awesome
would it be if he falls to Chicago. You know,
that's one of the situations where you know, you can
adjust based on landing spot a little bit, you can
be a little bit looser with how you're ranking these guys.
But you know, overall, I'm just trying to look at

(43:55):
trends and see, you know, what matters and what doesn't
matter at the end of the day. And again, I
think that the straight way to answer this question would be,
I don't want to make too many excuses for players
when oftentimes good players, even Jonathan Taylor, Jonathan Taylor's reception
share was still in like the twelve thirteen percent range,
you know, Wisconsin, Like they didn't throw the ball a lot,

(44:17):
but they at least when they did, they were targeting
Taylor because he's a really good football player and he'll
be able to do a lot when the ball is
in his hands. So that's sort of like the downside,
like a Martinez is like, if he is that good,
then why wasn't he getting the ball more as a receiver?

Speaker 3 (44:31):
You know? And so I try to ask that question
in the reverse instead of making that excuse for the guy.

Speaker 4 (44:36):
Wow, so you brought up his name, man, I got
to ask, now, Marcus knows that. I had this take
out the other day about Caleb Johnson. I feel as
though when I watch his tape on board, I mean like,
if you look at I was O line, they were
one of the best last season, and honestly, those holes,
I honestly think Marcus could get like one hundred yards
and with those type of holes that he was getting.
So I just feel as though that he is being

(44:57):
a little bit overvalued in the fantasy streets. I'm just
series of your thoughts on Caleb Johnson and does landing
spot actually matter for an outside zone scheme that he
played in?

Speaker 3 (45:06):
Yeah, one hundred percent. I think the scheme is going
to matter for Johnson.

Speaker 5 (45:10):
It's funny because you know, he went to the Combine
and again the only input I think people hear model
and they think that I'm like only worried about athleticism
and testing you know at the combine or at their
pro days. I really don't care at all. I mean
that that's going to impact the player's draft capital. Like
Matthew Golden not running a four two nine or whenever
he ran, you know, him not doing that, he wouldn't

(45:31):
be a first round pick. More than likely so it's
going to be reflected in the model in some way
because the draft capital is going to be going in
the model. But like Caleb Johnson, he goes out, he
runs a forty that was probably to be expected, and
speed score, which is way adjusted forty time, is something
that does go in the running back model. He ran
a forty that was probably to be expected because no
one saw his like long speed on film, you know,

(45:52):
going to the combine. Then we're no one said he
was going to blow by defenders and be that dude
at the next level. He's a bulldozer, like he's a
He's a big body dude can show a really big workload,
and that's what a team's gonna get with a player
like that, Like he's a One of his comps was
James Connor in the in the in My Zap model,
you know, Daniel Thomas was another one, So let's hope
it doesn't go that direction.

Speaker 3 (46:13):
But and then Le'Veon Bell was another.

Speaker 5 (46:15):
But you know, I think that that Johnson running a
slower forty wasn't bad in the context of like his
speed score was still okay because he's so big, you know.
Two hundred and twenty four pounds. The problem is that
the rest of this draft class is so good, and
the rest of the draft class was really fast at
the combine, like amazing weight adjusted forty times, and so

(46:38):
I do think that just because of that, he fell
down a little bit. And my fear with him would be,
you know, going back to I'm just trying to solve
fantasy football. I think he's a good player. I think
Johnson can carry a big workload. You know, in the
right system, he should be able to be a two
hundred plus touch back pretty easily. My fear would be,
is a team going to give him that opportunity if
they don't take him in one of the first two

(46:59):
rounds draft if he does fall to round three, there
is a difference between round three and round two and
the way that those guys end up typically seeing work,
you know, at the next level, and then there's a
big drop off when you get to a Day three guy.
I don't think Johnson's gonna fall to Day three, but
I do think there could be a difference between him
being a round two.

Speaker 3 (47:16):
And a round three player.

Speaker 5 (47:18):
And there are guys that you know, like a quin
Shawn Judkins, a Traveon Henderson, who we're gonna probably feel
a little bit better about going round two than Johnson.
So that's gonna be a big tie breaker for me,
Landing Spot. Sure, you know, see if that scheme is
there for him, but also is that team going to
be willing to give him that big workload and I'm
gonna feel better about that if he's a round two
guy versus a round three to one.

Speaker 1 (47:39):
How much of all this would be so much easier
if the combine actually resembled real football because of drill,
you know.

Speaker 5 (47:48):
You know, I'll say this though, like I know what
matters at the combine for fantasy, right, So, like, like
I know that speed scot you know, whenever I say
that speed scores, and I'm really just looking at like
an upper bound and guys hitting like a you know,
like a ninetieth percentile or better, and then a lower
one where they get dinged the majority of running max

(48:09):
it's a neutral score for them in terms of speed score.
Like even you know, like Kareem Hunt was slow at
the combine, he still had a neutral score based on
his weight and all that kind of stuff. But like
my thing is is like if I know that, like
I agree, like intuitively and just like practically a dude
running a straight line speed in shorts when they're playing football, Like,

(48:33):
there's why should that matter? But I do know that
there are that speed score at these bounds, right at
the upper bound and lower bound.

Speaker 3 (48:41):
It does matter.

Speaker 5 (48:41):
You know, there is some signal there, So I care
about it only because of that.

Speaker 3 (48:45):
But there's so much.

Speaker 5 (48:46):
But the problem is the NFL actually, especially a wide receiver,
they overexaggerate that stuff more than even fantasy managers do,
like like Matthew Golden's Like if I were to actually
layer on forty times into the model, the model would
get less predictive because NFL teams are often boosting up
these players who are fast when they shouldn't be doing
that because at the end of the day, what matters

(49:08):
a lot more is the production side of things and
how they actually played on a football field.

Speaker 2 (49:11):
Shocking.

Speaker 4 (49:12):
Yeah right, well, Davin and Austin came to mind when
you said that, But yeah, we are. I mean, look,
is there any potential in like day three guys that
are on your radar, Like, are we going to get
like a pukin Nakua out of nowhere type that is
just going to fall into a situation and be able
to step up and perform at.

Speaker 2 (49:30):
A high level.

Speaker 3 (49:31):
I think we're gonna get it at running back in
this class.

Speaker 5 (49:33):
This class is too good, too talented to not see
someone emerge. You know, realistically, we don't see We see
maybe maybe two in a given year give us like
decent production across their first three years. Like even Bucky
Irving's production was not normal and what we see and
we had him and Tyrone Tracy last year, but like
that's not you know.

Speaker 3 (49:52):
From like a long standing.

Speaker 5 (49:54):
You know, uh RB one RB two type player, you
usually only get one per class, if that. But I
do think we're going to get I think there's a
potential we get three or four in this class because
it's that good of a running back group. One guy
that has has popped for me and that I bring
up seemingly on every show that I do is Jarqus
Hunter out of Auburn.

Speaker 3 (50:16):
He's not getting that much steam. I don't think he's
going to be a Day two guy.

Speaker 5 (50:20):
But if you look at his numbers, he had an
ok enough reception share, it was like eleven percent in
his best season at Auburn, but he had one of
the best breakout scores in the class because when he
did get the ball through the air, super super efficient
was gaining a ton of yards and he did that
at a young age, which is really good to see.
But compared to the rest of this class, and again
it's a really really good class. He was fifth in
career avoided tackles per rush. He was ninth in career

(50:42):
explosive run rate, and he was ninth in career yards
after contact per attempt. He's maybe a little undersized, but
I think he can bring some juice. He had a
good forty decent speed score. So I like Jarqus Hunter.
And then there's two guys that kind of have this
like wide wide range of outcomes that might go Day two.
I think that there's a decent chance. There's probably a

(51:03):
better chance to go Day three. One of them is
DJ Giddins. He he had an unbelievably good testing at
the combine and he checks a lot of boxes, you know,
with within the zapp model where he has good side
He had pretty good receiving numbers. You know, if you
sort of filter out what he did at from a

(51:23):
total yards per team play rate and a receiving rate,
and you know, best season reception share, you really just
get stud after stud that hit those marks. Now again,
I don't know if the draft capital is going to
really be there for him, so that's going to go
a long way. But I do like Giddins as sort
of like a high ceiling, low floor kind of player.
And then the other guy is the guy who crushed
the combine. Then everyone was talking about post combine and
as base Shall Tuton, who you know, crazy forty time

(51:46):
home run hitting speed. On one end, he comped to
Darynton Evans in the model, so that's not great.

Speaker 3 (51:52):
But on the other end, he actually comped to Kenneth Walker.

Speaker 5 (51:55):
Very similar size, really good burst, home run hitting ability,
enough receiving actually i'd say plus receiving for the most part,
at least above average receiving. I don't think he's as
good of a prospect as Walker, but he does have
some similar ways that he could potentially make an impact
in fantasy football.

Speaker 3 (52:12):
So those are the three I'll call out. Jark West, Hunter,
DJ Gins, and base Shall.

Speaker 1 (52:16):
Tuton base all Tuton first rounder in fun names to
say in this draft class, without a doubt, for sure.

Speaker 2 (52:22):
JJ has always good stuff.

Speaker 1 (52:24):
Man. We appreciate having you on For the folks who
may be uninitiated, where can they find you? Where can
they find the Prospect Guide?

Speaker 5 (52:30):
Yeah, I'm on Twitter most socials at Late Round QB
and then you can check out the Prospect Guy and
everything else. I got going on over on lateround dot com.

Speaker 1 (52:40):
Was it is it eight years that I saw you
post eight year anniversary for Late Round now.

Speaker 5 (52:44):
Fit for the podcast? Yeah, it's air horns have been
in your ears for eight years.

Speaker 1 (52:51):
Congratulations on that man, fantastic accomplishment. Look forward to a
whole lot more and absolutely the If you don't know
now you know, be sure to go check out the
Late Round Prospect Guide.

Speaker 2 (53:00):
Go find it and go enjoy it.

Speaker 1 (53:02):
Devour it, and hold on to it because I know
a lot of people look at these guys who are like, well,
once the draft is over, what do I do? Well?

Speaker 2 (53:07):
You can always go back.

Speaker 1 (53:08):
When a guy suddenly gets drafted, somebody gets elevated to
a higher roll, you can go back.

Speaker 2 (53:12):
Look at the Prospect Guide, see what people said about.

Speaker 1 (53:14):
Him, and use that to make your determination or whether
or you're gonna spin fab or use a waiver priority
on somebody like that. So it should be a lot
of fun, looking forward to it. A little bit of
a side note next week on Tuesday schedules that have
our friend, friend of the show and just friend in
real life, Matt Harmon to come on and talk some
wide receivers with us, so that should be a lot
of fun as well.

Speaker 2 (53:34):
In the meantime.

Speaker 1 (53:35):
That will do it for this edition of the NFL
Fantasy Football Podcast. Stay happy, safe and healthy, do good
and live well. Enjoy the weekend everybody. We'll talk to
you again next week.

Speaker 3 (53:43):
Wood Bo