January 17, 2019 • 42 mins
Cynthia Frelund has doubled up her efforts, running analytical-based computer simulations of each Conference Championship game 20-thousand times! Find out who won each game the most often and what the likely scores will be, all while soaking in the most in-depth breakdown of the two games you're going to find anywhere.
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Welcome to game theory and money. It is a conference
championship week, some suggesting that this very well might be
the greatest Final four the NFL ever did see with
Cynthia Freeland, Matt Money Smith here, Bill Smith, my uncle
is with us as well, and Darner. We excited to
(00:22):
have you listening because we got these twenty thousand simulations
at Cynthia runs and her very special uniquely tailored to
her algorithm Montique Carlo method, whatever you want to call it, uh,
in order to give you a better idea of what
she thinks or her model thinks, is going to happen
to you. Something fancy foodsball Fred, that's what the street says.
(00:42):
Santhia puts her ears just straight. This is what she
comes up with. Or I started singing before I know
you're gonna start the pod, and that's embarrassing. That's okay, Hey,
look then it's live the way we do it, all right.
Sometimes we pull back the curtain. Let you know what
it looks like, how the sausage is made. That's what
we're doing here today. I would ask you to tease
something or do a quick pick, but hey, we got
(01:03):
two games, so what's the big deal, right, Yeah, I
mean we could do one if you want one, but
you're gonna get all the quick pigs, all right, so
let's go. Uh do you want to recap the divisional
playoff picks? Because you were correct on all four straight up?
But against the number two of four, uh correct paths
Eagles Dallas so close, So that's so far away. And
(01:27):
the one that I was wildly off on was the Colts.
I think everybody was felt like a lot of people,
we're feeling the Colts and it got sideways on them
in a hurry, and um, well yeah, zero third down
conversions is kind of one way to go with that.
Zero season. Andy Luck a terrible much like the Chargers
(01:47):
heck of a season. Chargers terrible Divisional round heck of
a season. Andrew Luck could not have looked worse in
the divisional round. And look, it's a reminder and and
we've become prisoners at the moment all the time, right, Uh.
Teams that get to buy and have a home game
decided advantage, I mean incredible advantage over the wild card
team that has already been on the road one week
(02:09):
and then had to back to back it while the
other team was just kind of kicking back and playing Fortnite,
and I think we saw that in the domination of
those two games particular. I would agree with you. All right, Cynthia,
you ready, I'm ready? All right? Here we go in
se Championship Rams at Saints three and a half total
fifty seven, and your model says what model says? The
(02:30):
Saints win fifty six point four percent of the simulations
the score I have you ready for? It's even surprised me.
Thirty to six. Okay, that's four, that's four, and that
go is. Look, I've been doing this long enough to
know what your model does. It's typically pretty close because
I'm guessing the folks that make these numbers are doing
a very similar thing to what you're doing, Cynthia, And
(02:51):
that's why the numbers are what they are. So really
not a surprise that you tend to be right around
a half to a point and a half, especially with
something point where I thought the number was going to
be closer with Sheldon rankcase, like when I was thinking
about it prior to And this is how you know
it's not biased, right because I I legitimately when I
was running I was like, oh no, all season long.
I've been hyping the Saints own and then it came out.
(03:14):
I was like, Okay, we're still in it. We're still
in it fairly. We're good your preseason prediction of Saints v. Chiefs.
And we'll find out what the model says about Chiefs
be Patriots in a minute. But it still holds. So
why why does your model like the Saints? What what
jumped out at you? Well? Before we start that, I
wanted you talked about that fifty seven is a key
point total. I have fewer than fifty seven points scored
(03:35):
in this game in almost sixty the simulations. Which of
all the things that are you know, the way things
come out in in these championship weekends with such close games,
that's the highest rated thing, the highest interesting to me
because you have a head to head from this season
and you have a head to head where the total
was eighty. I'm gonna say it again, it was eighty,
(03:58):
not eighteen eight zero. I don't know if your big brain,
without your model and your numbers that you can punch in,
can wrap your head around this. But that's twenty three
points more than the total number three has in three
touchdown pretty much two of them with the two point conversion. More,
(04:21):
that's how big that number was. So how does that,
I mean, you know, to stop being a smartass, How
does the model reconcile pointing to a lower total when
you have an eighty burger that you would, I assume
consider to be a pretty decent chunk of what you
want to look at when you're trying to figure out
what's gonna happen in this game. Yeah, so I do
(04:41):
look at the things that are gonna have in this
game and look for the differences. I mean, there are
some blaring differences. We are we already touched on Sheldon
rankings rankings not playing in this matchup, but in the
first matchup there's no keep to leave and that's a
big difference maker for the Rams defense. You also have C. J.
Anderson who has kind of changed the configuration in the
offensive structure of this t we used to before he
joined the team. They're running eleven personnel with three wide receivers. Wow,
(05:05):
I can't talk today. Three wide receivers six point six
or so at the time. Now they're running twelve personnel
using heavier set like something like twenty eight and a
half percent at the time, so you have to factor
in changes. You also have to factor in what we've
seen the city. The Saints and Rams OH lines have
both intermittently been kind of hurt banged up. We're not
really sure if they're gonna be able to protect each
(05:26):
other the same way we saw in this first matchup.
So I mean, you know, we we talked about all
of this in the previous weeks, but the Saints OH
line looks good last week, but you know, we're not
sure right when, we're not sure if they're completely healthy yet.
And that Larry Warford versus Aaron Donald matchup is going
to be really key on the one side of the
ball and then the other side of the ball. I
mean Cam Jordan is rushing from the side and Jared
(05:46):
Goff hangs on to the ball for a decent amount
of time, so there's there's some increased defensive efficiency. And also,
you know, I'll give it to the Rams and I
don't want to, but their run defense looks pretty good
against Ezekiel Ellett, holding them to only fifty yards to
total rushing. I don't like to compliment in Doma kuno,
but I will. You know what, that's it. That's why
(06:07):
you write a check for fourteen and a half million
dollars That fourth and one play was worth fourteen and
a half is crazy as it sounds. One play play
of the game, a fourth and one, Dallas goes down,
they score that touchdown, they convert in that games tied,
and I do believe that Jared Goff and the wheels
fall off. I just knew. I think they played so
well and to see that slip away when they look
(06:27):
to be the far superior team very well could have
cost them the season. And Doma consumed to play of
the game. I mean, it's it's that simple. And I said,
I don't like it, can do That's why I did it.
So that was that was worth the fourteen and a
half million bucks right there. Whether or not that holds
this week, UM, you know I know that, I know
you hate it, but um and and I don't. And
(06:49):
I'm not pointing to it like like it's a giant
trend home road splits. But looked at Jared Goff to me,
just he's just not the same guy. He's not the
same guy away from home. I think he can get rattled.
I think the moment can get to him. And um,
I think that that's I don't know how you quantify
it um because every opponent's different, every stadiums differ in
(07:09):
every game straight right, It's it's it's hard to say, oh,
he's terrible on the order, where where did he play?
Did he have games at Pittsburgh and at Baltimore and
at Green Bay and at you know that you never know,
but it just if you've watched the Rams this year,
if he gets moved off his spot and when he
goes on the road, he's just he's a different dude.
I also think you saw this in the Eagles game
(07:29):
big time. You saw all of their like the Saint's
offense got helped out by some untimely defensive penalties that
were just not paying attention like you know, a whole
because they weren't quite ready. They were a little caught
off guard. It was potentially something with the noise. I mean,
these are just things we hadn't seen the Eagles defense
do in in previous games or recent games. So you
(07:50):
saw some. You saw some of the fact of like
how loud it is in the dome. You you did
see that play out with increased penalties last week. So
those are the type of things where golf still a
young core back. I know, there's like he's had some
really big wins in this playoff win is a big
deal to avenge like losing to Atlanta last season. But
you know, he's still young and this is a hard
environment to play, and so you could get some of
(08:10):
those pre snap things, especially you know they use they
use motion, they use things that are a little tricky,
so those things could get confused in there, So that
that is something to look for. But you know, especially
if you get in third and long situations, that could
be a really that could be tough on Jared Goff. Yeah,
I mean, I guess the one. The one thing, and
it's a pretty big thing to point too, is that
(08:31):
when he was there in the regular season, you know,
he they got they got into a hole and he
climbed out of it and he had a great game.
I mean, Jared both. That's what's funny, right is we're
kind of talking about that. Jared Goff on the road
a little shaky. Yeah. I like, actually, I'm actually less
anti golfer. I don't blame golf as much as I
blame well two things. One, when you run the same
(08:51):
formations all the time. Eventually, a good defensive coordining is
going to catch up to you. And Chicago, like Vic
Fango got a head coaching job for a reason. This
guy amazing at scouting and figuring out ways to just
crush the pressure from every direction on the defensive front.
So I'm not blaming Golf and much like I think
of that Chicago game as the one where like, is
Jared Goff really not that good? Is he? Like you
(09:12):
know whatever? Whatever? That it was the back back right
as the fact he wasn't good against the lines, wasn't
good against the Bears, wasn't good against the Eagles for
a really good chunk of that game. And I think
that's just and because it was so recent, right it wasn't. Yeah,
I just don't. I think it's as my statement already, no,
you don't have to retroactive, but it's just more I'm
just more worried about like, look when when he has
time behind Andrew. Look, there are some stats that pointed
(09:35):
Goff being good quick passes, those thrown under two point
five seconds, but he just doesn't do them very often.
He's more of like a three second kind of guy,
and that Andrew Whitworth left tackle being healthy and all,
like the whole line is a really big deal. It's
just it just is his has been terrible, you know,
and he was good against the Cowboys. He wasn't look
at the difference, you know, and that's because they ran
(09:56):
right at I mean, look, that's what they want to do.
They we can talk about the fly I sweep. They
want to run outside zone and everything runs off of
outside zone, and that it has all year. I mean,
we get excited about the big plays, but the big
plays come off the outside zone runs of Todd Gurley. Uh.
And now you have inside zone with C. J. Anderson,
who's running in that offense in Denver, Forever anyway, so
he's comfortable, like, hey, what are you doing? We're running
(10:17):
inside zone? Great, I know what to do. It's it's
not hard, um. And that's why when you look at
that game, you know, you had Gurly rush for over
I'm looking, I'm looking at the box score. Now rush
for over five yards per carry. Uh. You had Kimeara
running for over four yards per carry, and oh what
do you know? Drew brees through for four touchdowns and
a pass area of one seven and three fifty and
Jared Goffe through fore and three because they're running games worked.
(10:42):
The thing about the running game working, and the reason
that the reason that my score is low, going back
to your initial question, is because that running game like
slows down the pace and keeps the scoring from getting
out of control. So just so you know, like that's
where that comes in, right, that you think that will
be more of a cowboy they wanted to look more
like the cowboys less the chiefs, is what the Rams
(11:02):
are looking for. Yeah, exactly, but I do want to
I actually spend a lot of time figuring out how
to navigate Sheldon Rankin's being gone, especially after we saw
a billion, ok like two fifty rushing yards out of
the Rams last week, and like the dual purpose used
with C. J. Anderson and with Todd Gurley, and like
how the two of them created confusion and they just
kind of change the looks for them. And Sheldon Rankin's
(11:25):
is he's a big loss. Like he's like a I
mean Steelers fans of your ears, right, Like that tackle
on Juju Smith Schuster that costs the forced fumble to
essentially save home field advantage for the Saints the season,
Like that's a three hundred pound gigantic dude, like turning
around in space. I also went to BC right, and
there's a Louisville game that I remember was a bowl game.
(11:48):
He also stole Boston College souls in a game in
a move very similar to them. It's a lot of
a lot of souls to be stealing Boston College to
stealing all them souls keeping them for herself. He has
a little jar of souls. I've heard. It's not confirmed.
It's just source told me. Unfortunate, right, So that is
going to be a problem. And that then the fact
(12:09):
that if if the Saints defense doesn't come off looking strong,
especially against the run in the beginning of the game,
they gotta force share off into more obvious passing downs.
And they've got to make sure that Ei Apple, who's
a liability, they've got to make sure that they have
him in the situation that works from meaning things in
front of him. He's he's got to stay like with
this guy, he's got to be put in the corner
(12:31):
where he has his chance to succeed. So that's that's
the things that the model is saying that they will
successfully The Saints will successfully be more like we saw
during the regular season when they ranked second against the run.
And yes, I know nobody ran on them when they
were playing with the lead. I get it. But they
still only allowed three point six yards per rush, which
is ridiculous. So that's a huge deal. So the model
(12:52):
believes in the fact that the other elite players like
to Mario Davis, Cam Jordan's, all of these guys in
their front are gonna be able to recreate some of
the efficiency from Sheldon rankings or more, they're not going
to lose too much of that efficiency in the run game.
That's what the model says. Okay, model very strong thoughts
about Sheldon Rankings though probably clearly he's like a point
(13:12):
guard basketball. He's like a good he's a good assist guy.
And I think the Ramps are the better team. I
just I think they're the better team. Are you gonna
try to woo me with to leaves shutting down, Michael Thomas,
Because I might believe now to leave is not going
to shut down, Michael, you don't think so. As much
as I like to keep, to leave, that is not
the answer to shut How do we shut down? But
let's just get a thirty two year old guy that
mishf the season out here, It'll be fine. Are they
(13:33):
gonna try to blitz Drew Brees because that's not good.
They're not gonna that's they're They're have the good worst
passer rating on blitzes and Breezes the right. The guy
had freaking thirty five points by the time you blinked
in that game. I think I think they had thirty
five in the first half. I remember, right, Um, god,
this is a tough one. What are you gonna do?
Are you relying on Breeze being under pressure because he
(13:53):
does have the third largest drop off one under pressure, well,
especially in the pressure seven points. That's that's the different.
It's not edge pressure. It's straight up the gut with
Aaron Donald. But they're going to triple team him. I mean,
they will not let that guy beat him. If they
get beat by Dante Fowler off the edge or Littleton
or or something like that. Fine, you know that they
(14:14):
will not. I promise you it will be a double
or a triple team on Aaron Donald every snap and
it'll be up to the other guys uh to do it.
You know what, I'm gonna go ahead and say that
Marcus Peters blows it that he'll just bite on a
double move, and you were cheering for the Ram or
I thought you thought the Rams are gonna win. I do,
But then the more I think about it, I feel
like that's I don't like the fact that that guy
(14:36):
got absolutely torched. The entire regular that doesn't and you
want to spout off. It's like, you know what I'm
gonna I'm gonna I'm gonna go bat, I'm gonna go battitude.
I'm gonna go Marcus Peters. Battitude is why I'm taking
the Saints. I'm with you. And a reminder, you can
stream every NFL Playoff game live on your mobile or
tablet through the NFL app or through the Yahoo Sports app.
(14:59):
All right, good to know, Patriots. The Chiefs Arctic blast.
Chiefs are the numbers. Three Chiefs, three total. What you got?
The Chiefs winning in fifty six of the sims. The
score I have, wait for it, one to four points again,
I blow them out. I think it's funny, you don't
(15:21):
you know what? Everybody? Everybody believes strongly that the Rams
are gonna win, and very few people believe that the
Chiefs are gonna. I'm surprised that they like it's the
Rams are like by far who people are voting, if
you know what I mean, they're voting for the Rams
and then after that the number has been voted on
and it's kind of made it closer. But people don't
(15:43):
people there's maybe there's just a lot of Patriots fans
that are voting to speed on the Chiefs, And I'm like,
how are you gonna keep up with that? Well, if
you try, then what's that If you try to keep
up with it, then crush you in the middle of
Travis Kelsey, Like, I just to me, it's such a
I just look at it and I see like it's
a bad matchup for the Pats. And people can say, oh,
(16:04):
you're just all butt hurt because they humiliated the Chargers. No,
I'm not. I'm just telling you. I think it's just
a bad matchup, you know. I think the Pats. Yeah,
if the Pats could have chosen, do you want the Chargers,
you want the Ravens. I think they would have taken
the Chargers. I don't think they want anything to do
with Lamar Jackson coming up there and that defense. You know,
I think it's the same way. If the Chiefs had
a chance to choose between the Pats and the Chargers,
I'm guessing they would say give me the Pats. You know.
(16:26):
That's because look, what's the one thing they do really
really well? Rush the passer, you know. I mean, that's
the one thing they could because they can get it
from both edges and up the middle. So if you're Brady,
and that was one thing the Chargers just could not do.
Um and a lot of the defense they were playing, no,
I mean they were playing that cover their defense and
just cushion. Hey, Tom, get rid of the ball. Well, joey, Uh,
(16:47):
your corners are giving me nine yards of cushion, so
I can pretty much get rid of it right after
I take the snap because there's no one within a
first down from them. So sorry, uh maybe maybe, Well,
we'll see what happens in the fourth quarter he does
make an adjustment, we'll see if something happens there. But
then in the meantime, I actually thought we're gonna see
Brian Hoyer. I don't mean to be mean at all,
but I thought we might have a Hoyer sighting, because
(17:09):
if it were me, I would have put Brian Hoyer
in the forth, I'm getting a helmet in the middle
of his back from one of those guys, or maybe
they just said, well, none of those guys are ever
gonna get there. So it was. But but I think
what I'm getting at is I just it to me
looks like a bad matchup on on paper. I don't
know who. I don't know who keeps up with Tyree
Kill and if you do, Sammy Watkins, and if you do,
(17:31):
Travis Kelsey and the Andy Reid can play the Patriots
game as well. He can screen you to death with
Damian Williams all game long. If you're gonna, you know, so,
if you're gonna play off those guys, which you can't
afford to do, then well, all right, here you go.
Guess what. Guess what, Bill and Josh, I'm gonna do
what you do and I'm just gonna dump off because
they did that to the Chargers when they played that
(17:53):
Cover three, they were like, Okay, Damian Williams, Damian Williams.
Damian Williams had a monster game. So the first thing
you brought up was the Arctic Past and Arctic Blast.
Guess how many games between. Don't look in the Google doc. Okay,
a little sneak. Okay, between two it's the guy do
our podcast. I have to look at it, unsneak right now? Okay,
(18:13):
so just for this moment, look away hurt you guys. Okay,
since two thousand three, so you got fifteen years there.
How many games have been thanked for that math genius,
You're welcome. How many games have been played between fifteen
and twenty five degrees? Yes, in the last fifteen Well,
I guess technically if this is nineteen, it would be
the last sixteen postseasons? Right, How many teams between? How
(18:36):
many games between fifteen and twenty five degrees? This is
postseason games? No, just any games in the entire season.
I don't know. Yeah, so like sixty year or six
seventy year, right, which means it's not that crazy. So
we have enough of like a we kind of know
what's going on the way bigger deals win, the way,
(18:58):
big climate change. What's the trend? What if we had
the last three years at mahomes may not know about
that's playing cold weather. She's been less it has so
the only thing that matters is really wind in these
and then like excessive precipitation. So you're like the precipitation
stuff from not as worried about the wind could be
(19:20):
a factor to keep an eye on that. But just
because it's cold, it doesn't matter. That it's not that
it doesn't matter. It doesn't matter that much. No, it doesn't.
I mean that's I had that exact conversation on the
field when it was twenty degrees at Foxboro, and everybody
said exactly what you just said, which is, as long
as there's no as long as it's not wet, and
as long as it's not windy, it doesn't matter. We
get used to the temperature within the first five minutes
(19:42):
of the game and some place, Yeah, some people wear
with some people do like other stuff. But they will
tell you, um, the one thing, and guess what if
it's an Arctic blast and there's all that snow, it's
not going to be five degrease because it doesn't snow.
People for the Midwest to have to bring to this
because people don't are stand it can be too cold
to snow. And that's it's the one thing that when
(20:03):
it was extremely cold, and this is where it could
come into play, receivers will tell you if you've got
a quarterback with a hose. That can be a problem
if they don't know how to take a little something
off that. It is harder to catch that ball. The
ball gets a little bit harder, and if it's coming
with some zip uh a, it can hurt be it
can break a finger um because that's that's the one
(20:24):
adjustment that yet. But it's not gonna be that cold.
So it's not cold enough for that. No, I don't
I mean, I don't think it's cold enough. I don't know.
Let's look it up. What do we think that? What
do we think the temperature is going to be two?
That's what I have. Let's get a look right now,
can't now are you cheating? Oh? I looked at it
before we just before we started. Oh you did? Are
you cheated? Did you look at Kansas City, Missouri? Did
(20:45):
you look at Kansas City, Kansas? I looked at the
Arrowhead Stadium right now, Sunday, Okay, we my, my, that's
exactly I can tell you right now. That's exactly what
the Patriots and and Chargers played in out at Foxboro.
And it certainly did not look like it affected one
offense at all. As a matter of fact, because they
were able to throw it around to the tune of
(21:06):
about four yards. So there you go. So they do
you talk about quarterbacks, So let's start there right So
you I mean, look when we when we talk about Brady,
we talked about my homes. It's just two different styles, right,
Like they both they both have a little bit, just
a little bit. It wasn't like good pressure. They both
(21:28):
have some good pressure stats this season. In fact, like
you know, they Mames twelve touchdown passes under pressure, which
is three more than tom Brady is nine. That's second most,
first and second most. So they've both been good under pressure.
It's really when you when you boil it down and
you saw it in this Colts game, it probably is
likely to come down to those first two offensive drives
(21:50):
for the Paths. If the defense can pressure tom Brady
just like we saw them do with the Colts and
limit their ability to score in those first two drives specifically,
then like really favors the Chief's ability to game plan
and keep it manageable. Not saying tom Brady can't mount
to come back in this situation, but it's more how
many points will he have to overcome in this one?
(22:11):
So for me, the thing that's the thing that's key
are those first two defensive drives for the Chiefs. Now,
we saw Eric Barry practice today, but I don't know
if he's even if he's playing, it's likely to assume
he's not. And safety play, especially in the red zone,
we didn't really get to see it last game. We
spent so much time talking about on the pod, but
they don't really get in the red zone, so really
(22:33):
hard to see how their safety playing in the red
zone was gonna work out. But they still have the
league's regular season thirty one ranked red zone touchdown defense
and when you look to see safety play has been
the reason for that, and that like they have like
a second highest completion percentage allowed in the red zone
if you look to see, you know between Gronk, between
(22:53):
you know, James White, who I think the Patriots have
like saved for the playoffs. He's the little playoffs neck
and then julieteen receptions in a game. What's the big one?
The one thing I'll tell you real quick on the
safeties and just that secondary which has been solid all year. Uh,
and it's it's just kind of one of the many
head scratchers coming out of that Charger Patriots game and
what they were doing. But um, I saw a stat
(23:15):
at the end. Actually know, I think Warren Sharp posted it.
Uh when because we were watching it the whole game,
We're like, why are they not attacking the outside more?
You've got J C. Jackson and Mike Williams. Uh, You've
got Keenan Allen who absolutely dustede to find Gilmore on
that double move for the touchdown to start the game.
When Philip Rivers targeted his outside wide receivers on first down, uh,
(23:36):
the average completion was nineteen yards with a passer rating
of one fifty eight point three. The five times they
decided to run it on first down, they rushed for
one point eight yards per carry. It was wild that
they did not go after that. And you know, when
you think about those outside weapons, if Sammy Watkins is
healthy and he's got Tyree Hill on one side and
Sammy on the other, holy god, I mean that's that's
(23:56):
kind of what I'm thinking about when I'm talking. This
thing could really get away from them in a hurry. Well,
it really solidifies it for me, is you know, the
the problem is is if you try to so want
to use a computer vision on the Patriots defense when
it notices they are not the Patriots defense. On the
the defenses who face the Chiefs, they have, they spread
(24:17):
them out a lot more often like it actually like
equates to yards, So they're the most spread out because
defenses are forced to contend with perimeter speed from Tyreek Hill,
Sammy Watkins, you name it. Who they put outside, then
you have to so you have to to honor that.
Then you have to keep someone on Travis Kelsey and
in this case it is probably Devin mccordy, which is
a huge mismatch in favor of Travis Kelsey. And then oh,
(24:40):
by the way, you got Damian Williams exactly that screen
game you talked about. And then oh, Patrick Mahomes he
could rush the ball too. So the spread defense, the
space that they take up. You're totally right, because there
are some stats that will show that actually the Patriots
have been like really good against deep passes and they've
been targeted the high ist rate, like fifteen point one
(25:01):
percent of their attempts, highest rate in the NFL, and
they have the lowest completion percentage on them. But that's
because those are more obvious past the situations where we
don't have to honor all of the different potential dynamic
things that are going on in this one. So taking
away the deep play plus accounting for Travis Kelsey, that's
going to be a lot like you saw it in
the first game. Tyreek Hill had a bazillion yards in
(25:23):
that game and three receiving three receiving touchdowns, right, so
that was ridiculous. And then Travis Kelsey had sixty one
yards but no touchdowns, so they kind of picked one
over the other. And he'll but for that turnover in
that game that really solidified it in favor of the Patriots,
Like that could have been a different outcome easily. So yeah,
(25:45):
I mean, look, I and also just kind of the
the one interesting thing about that game right at the
regular season game, and I forgot to bring that up
and ask you about that, just like I did the
Saints and Rams game. But and it's something that I saw,
you know, in that division, what heck everybody saw it.
What they have found with this James Devlin, Sony Michelle
just kind of jumbo package two tight ends, Dwayne Allen,
(26:07):
Rob Gronkowski was a freaking wrecking ball. When you've got
Devlin and Gronk and Dwayne Allen who was blocking his
tail off, and now you've got that big back in
Sony Michelle. Their power run game was impressive and that's
remember that's how they got that game started. It was
a ton of Sony Michelle with James Devlin with Gronk blocking.
(26:29):
So if they can get on that, especially if it
ends up being an Arctic blast and it's a giant
snow game. But remember they got them coils in the field,
which is cheating over there at Arrowhead. There are no
more snow games out there. But if they can get
on that kick and now you win that time a
possession battle, then maybe they've got something. But I don't
think this is gonna be your Tom Brady Julian Edelman
(26:50):
uh game. This is gonna have to be that Sony
Michelle three touchdown game if they're gonna have a chance,
because again it's gonna be time of possession and power running. See.
I think it's like the get some sneaky plays in
with like a James White and the Reds, like, like
I said, talk about targeting that red zone defense and
those lack of safeties for the Chiefs. Do it with
like a James White in those in that situation, run
(27:13):
up a lead and then Usty Michelter run the clock.
Like that would be the way too. I don't think though,
you know, like I don't know, don't establish a lead
and then and then and then control the clock because
because they're being able, they'll be able to control. Like
the Chiefs haven't been good on defense all season, right,
Like what we saw last game was an anomaly in
the other direction. Zero was just terrible. I think about that.
(27:36):
Pressures were really good and then Luck couldn't come back,
so they had You've got Adam Vinitarry Adam ni mrs
exactly uh mrs. The shortest field goal of his career.
He misses an extra point. Andrew Luck is routinely like
even when he wasn't under great pressure, just dirt balling.
(27:57):
I mean, he is throwing those balls at the feet
of his receivers. He looked, he just looked like he
was rushed. He wasn't taken time to make his way
through his progressions. And they still had a chance. And
like yet they still through how bad they were and
they were terrible, they still had a chance. And that's
I guess That's kind of where I'm trying to figure
out what to make of Pat Mahomes, who, very much
(28:20):
like we talked about with Drew Brees, hasn't quite been
you know, these last couple of games have kind of
gotten away from him a little bit. You know, it
hasn't quite been the guy that that we were used
to seeing for the first third team. I don't know
what am I talking about. Now. I'm trying to talk
myself out of the Patriots thing because I'm reminding myself
about how good Sony Michelle wasn't that first match up
with them with that power run game. But now there
(28:42):
safety start talking. So here's here's good stats because mine
are junk. Well, when you look at like these two
teams both do something kind of counterintuitive to the rest
of the league. They both play man coverage a lot
more often than the average NFL team. I think they
ranked what second and fourth first top five. Both are
the top five in terms of percentage of man defense
that they played through the course of the season. The
(29:04):
problem is is if you try to do that to
Patrick Mahomes, Who'll use a slot receiver and crush you,
or he'll beat you over the top with Tyreek Hill.
It's big plays in this one that is really the
reason for my model picking the Chiefs. That the Patriots
have kind of sneaky given up, like they're what dred
and eighteen big plays number six, they're tied for number
(29:27):
six most big plays given up. Patrick Malmes himself is
seventy six completions of twenty plus. That's the most in
the NFL. And obviously, like we already knew, yeah, Kansas
City already gives up the most big place. So all
they have to do is have a few key stops
and they're really setting themselves up where they don't need
that complementary every down sort of your third down percentage
is good on offense, and my third down percentage on
(29:47):
defense is good too. They can they just need a
few possessions different like where they can hold Tom Brady
in order to to kind of overcome that. Right. So
for me, it's all about it's those big plays. It's
the fact that they use man and like if you
try to use man, good luck see you later. With
perimeter speed. If you try to use zone, we'll just
use Tyreek Hill. In the scene like that, we saw
(30:08):
them do that. It was a seventies six yard touchdown
in the first time, seventy five yard touchdown, and that
on that seam route and zone coverage in the first matchup.
So that's the thing where it's not fair to only
look at, well, it's not fair for the Chiefs to
only look at kind of one configuration of defense and
be like, well, they're good in man and they play
a lot of man. That's good in this And you know,
you have to add it up in context because it
(30:29):
is truly that spread and the and the fact that
they have so many different options that gives them the
edge in the model. And again, it's a it's a
four point game. It's not like I'm saying it's going
to be a total blowout. But then you almost picked
the Chiefs or then almost picked the Patriots. Well run game.
But I think the more the more I look at it,
(30:49):
and I guess the reason why, I don't you know,
like the people come at you with stats, Oh, we'll
look at his rating and stuff. I was like, man,
if you watch that game against the Colts, he was
missing guys that were wide open. It was it was
not a great game for him. You can you can
show me all the cool submarine throws and look at
the no look pass and see how he whips it
around this corner. Okay, well, here's five throws where he's
kind of clean pocket. He's got a guy on the
(31:09):
outside and he's whipping it over his head by three yards.
And it just seemed like there have been more of
those as of late than we saw. And I think
that's kind of what happens, right when you got a
guy that's that's a Sports Center highlight and a highlight.
Real dude, yeah, sports Center highlight. You don't want any
of those, you know what I mean, Like you don't
pay attention to the Oh, by the way, here's the
here's the five throws Lamar Jackson, you know what I mean,
like the Lamar Jackson, Like, here's the guy who can't
(31:31):
throw to the outside. He just he can't do it.
And so okay, great, that's a beautiful seventeen yard run.
Uh that included thirty yards of running east and west
to get there. But here's I guess here's the wartz
and yeah, but but just because but again, I don't
think there, I don't think there's nothing. Well, just because
the Colts offense didn't play well, well, didn't mean that
the Colts defense wasn't playing well, you know what I mean, Like,
(31:53):
it's not like you were seeing Patrick Mahomes versus even
an average defense, right, this is is a well but it
was a well above average defense. So I don't and
I know, we were looking at the Colts offense and
you're kind of like, man, they cannot like they can't
stay on the field. But their defense they were playing
it was okay. I mean it started slow, their defense
started slow, and they everybody it's it's hard to start
(32:17):
fast against against exactly well no, I mean they just
got torched in that the first couple of possessions and
then they settled in. Yeah, but it's not like they
were playing poorly for the whole game though. I mean,
I guess that's my point, right, Yeah, I'm with you,
I hear you. I just I don't know. I find
it hard to believe that the Pats are gonna keep
up with that speed. But whatever, so we both agree
(32:37):
on both My gosh, what's this doing really? I think? So,
I mean I feel like, yeah, wow, that's I mean,
I feel like that's kind of like the mic troubles
after my four and oh wild Card week. I believe
I went one in three. If not zero and four,
I'm trying to think, what the Oh no, no no, no,
I think I might have gone zero one four Last
week I had the Chargers loss, Cowboys loss, uh, Colts loss,
(33:05):
and now I took the Saints. Okay, perfect loss. Yeah, four,
way to go. I'm the guy you want to listen to.
I'm gonna change my picks and it's about no. You
got all the bad karma out, You're all for the
good karma. Now, Hey, I'm four and four? All right, Bill?
What did we miss? Because poor Bill has to like, listen,
put up with mine? Bill? Why don't you just jump in?
(33:25):
I think it's worth going back again. I know we've
done this, rehashed her preseason Super Bowl pick a lot
as Saints over Chiefs, and it is still that way
one to Now did it stay that way throughout the
entire season? Have there been ebbs and flows where there
were other teams that, you know, when Kareem Hunt is
no longer on the Chiefs at that point where the
(33:47):
Patriots the favorite in the a f C. Were there
times where well, actually I think it was the Chargers
right because they were like one game out of that.
It was that when the Charges were poised to take
over the division. That was the time in the Chiefs
strap out of first and when the Saints were potentially
facing not having home field advantage, they also if it
(34:08):
wasn't close, then they then they slightly went under the
rams and the Bears could have overcome had they had
one more, just not one that not lost that one
damn game. But whatever, Eagles, you know, absolutely double Doink
can't get rid of double Doink. The Cody Parky, now
(34:29):
with him? How about his kids. You've got to go
to the elementary school in Chicago and you've got the
last name Parky. God, Cody, you can deal with him.
I think he's gotta I don't know if he's got
kids or not, but if he does, what I mean,
he knew something in Chicago. Yeah, that's scary. Telling you
don't be going out for recess King of the Mountain.
You're gonna wear it and get your face pounded in
(34:51):
the snow. And that's mean. But guess what. I grew
up on those streets. I know what it's like out there.
I lived in Bridgeport for a little while. We're good there,
you go Um, he's very young, he's only six, does
not have any children in elementary You never know. Philip
Rivers had like fourteen at that point. He had like
several children. He had several children when he was drafted,
(35:13):
so he did for sure. He went to NY State.
My dad went there. We watched on the draft, we
the whole thing. You know, he had at least I
think too sounds about right. Yeah. I believe he's got
a daughter junior in high school right now, probably drafted
with at least one exactly. Um, but what don't we
miss about any of the games because you've gone through
the billion times to day. So one thing to look
(35:33):
at I think it's interesting is you have the two
home teams with the advantage in this game, which means
they have the higher percentage to thus go on and
win the Super Bowl. If stay home field were reversed
in these games, what sort of adjustments would the model make.
Does the model favor each of the Saints and Chiefs
on a neutral field or is the fact that they
have home field still the bit a big determining factor
(35:55):
at this point for the Saints. It would switch it.
I think, Um, I ran it with out. But because
I don't. I didn't run it with Sheldon rankings. I
should have done that, but the loss of Sheldon Rankings
and traveling would have switched it. But I know that
for sure because of I ran it just now. But
I should have done it with Sheldon rankings. I'm sorry,
but you run it with Sheldon Rankings in New Orleans
(36:16):
and then without That's what I mean. If it was
how many points difference was the model based on the
big defense. People are going to hate this answer because
it's not a round number, but the it was about
two point two points, so it was like it was
a slight difference. And remember it's it's not neutral, so
it would be it was I ran it accidentally ran
it without Sheldon Rankings in Los Angeles, so I think
(36:37):
it was like another one or two points below, so
like four or five points. Again, just goes to the
outline how big the run game is for the RAM
this past month. It almost seems like Girly going down
may have been a little bit of a blessing in disguise,
helped them reinvent themselves, got out of just eleven personnel,
diversified their offense, and now with that eleven Bill I
(36:57):
think that they still ran that outside, so I mean
that was still kind of the spine of that play,
you know, even with those three receivers, you know what
I mean, Like that's and and and. I guess if
you want to talk about, you know, getting out of
eleven and getting into twelve, then I think that's I
don't know if they just decided that haven Steam was
too much of a liability on that right side and
(37:17):
it was tough to run that way, so I just
put an extra tight end over there. I think that
was maybe just a product of that. Um. I definitely
so fascinating about them, right is it's just like they're
the ultimate, Hey, you know what we're doing. Good luck
here it comes, try to stop it and the Cowboys couldn't.
And I just I love teams that do that, you know,
that are like whatever, we're gon, we're gonna run this
one play and there's gonna be nineteen variations of it.
(37:39):
Try to try to crack the code. That's my point though.
I think now the defensive coordinators have a little bit
extra to think about. There's like, well, what if they wrinkle.
They've developed these past wrinkles over the past three or
four weeks, like what's the next wrinkle they may sort
of develop in Los Angeles, and I think that little
bit of doubt, maybe that little bit of fear that
(37:59):
creeps in to the defensive coaches mind, may help them
down the stretch. And then when I ran it also
for Chiefs Patriots at home, um, that one switched. It
was still it was still Chiefs, but it was only
by it's one point two points. I know nobody likes
the fractional points, but it's a model. So that's how
it works. It's on a neutral field. The Chiefs are
still considered a better team. They're still considered a one
(38:20):
point to better team on a neutral on a on
a neutral field. So in Patriots they would at Foxboro,
they would have been favored. Patriots would have been favored.
The Patriots would have been favored, right if it would
have been in Foxboro. So home field advantage. That's a
weird place to play, man. Foxboro's creepy. Go through those
little that little neighborhood and it's nieves on the trees
(38:43):
and your wine and you know, if you get car sick,
you're jolting back and forth, the roads bumpy. Do you
feel like they're taking you out to the woods to
put you down, like it, and all of a sudden, Hey,
it's Gillette Stadium. It's like, wow, where did that come from.
There's a guy just freaking chopping wood with an axe,
you know, and there's a mini work running around and
now all of a sudden, im at a football stadium.
Like it's just it's crazy. It's a weird. It's just
(39:05):
it's off putting out in the middle of the woods.
It's definitely something. Um yeah, no, it's hard. It's a
fun place to I don't know, I've had fun there
just because I don't know. It's fun to go to
games there. But I love it. It's one of my
favorite stadiums. It's an awesome stadium. But I mean I
can totally understand why. And you hear it from players
a lot. They're like, yeah, there's some weird about that place.
Like yeah, it's it's called the one lane road that
(39:26):
it's like, it's not like there's some people are like, oh,
it's like Green Bay. It's like it's not like green
Bay friendly. You walk and you're like, oh, it's kind
of nice here, you know, this is creepy. No, definitely
not friendly walk in thinking know that there ain't tools
in that shed of yours. I don't know what's in it.
I don't want to know, but it ain't tools. And
I don't like this place. I want to get out
of here. And that's just kind of the vibe you
get out there. So that doesn't surprise me. But look, Arrowheads,
(39:49):
tough as all heck. Place to play. Obviously we know
how loud it gets. Um anyway, Yeah, anything else, Bill,
I think we're good. Do you have any like spicy
touchdowns this week? Between the two games there? I think,
like James White one is actually like a little spicier.
I think everyone goes it's all Sonny Michelle, you don't
(40:10):
think that's spicy. It's gotta be someone. The guy's got
the super Bowl record. He should have been a Super
Bowl m VP. Was he the super Bowl m VP? There?
He wasn't right, it was Tom Brady. That's a load
of crap, is what that is? Should have been James White.
I have a shameless plug for my article. I just
wrote a couple of articles NFL dot Com slash Freeland.
There's like three of them. Are two of them up there? Now? Well,
there's one up right now on the ten most underperforming
(40:31):
units in the NFL. Oops, sorry if your team's on it,
not sorry to um. There's one coming out tomorrow that's
like the four biggest matchups at these two games, one
on each of the ball but the ten the ten
most underperforming units. One. Here's my tease for it. One.
There's a shot at Matt Lafleur kind of unintentional but
fairly fairly justified, I mean justified and fair. That's the
(40:51):
first one. And then the second one there's a shot
at Jimmy Graham sorry or actually more Brian good against
for overpaying. All right, uh, next week, you know doing
we're doing an award. We're doing awards. We're making our
own basically, we're creating our own roster of awards on
this pot right here soon to see who our m
VP would be like if we were instead of like
Pro Bowl voting, we're creating like an analytics driven winner
(41:14):
for each one. So you got to think of your like,
you're like fan guy with you know, like the heart
and soul fan guy. No, like like the heart. You're
the most creative. Now you're the most creative person, the
most creative person that I know, so I want to
hear what you have to say. There's no patronizing here,
(41:37):
Matt money Smith. Matt money Smith, you know I'd never
patronize you. I really wouldn't. I want to hear your
creative like, because you'd creative like. Puns are all gonna
have alliteration. Everything's gonna be perfect, and I'm gonna be like,
damn it, I do grammar and I do like. I
don't do grammar, and I don't do creative writing. I
just do math. And you and you're gonna be like
wonderful and funny and make people happy and like the
(41:57):
math girl again with her model three words for you
know what I'm doing mailing it in. That's what my
awards are gonna be. All right, that's gonna do it
for us. Uh. We will be back again next week
with Cynthia's statistical model All Stars, and then of course
we'll be back super Bowl week. Thanks again everyone for downloading, listening,
(42:19):
and again remember you can stream every NFL playoff game
live on your mobile or tablet through the NFL app
or on the Yahoo Sports app. Can read Cynthia's article
at NFL dot com slash Freeland all of her posts.
Thank you to Bill Smith, to Shawn Shoppy, to the
name of Fun, the Enemy of Fun, Mark Brady, and
to all of yous who download, who listen, who leave
(42:39):
us reviews and pass it along through social media. Thank you,
thank you, thank you. Just a couple more of these
to go, a few more, I should say, before the
end of the season, and we can't think you know
for subscribing and supporting
Welcome to game theory and money. It is a conference
championship week, some suggesting that this very well might be
the greatest Final four the NFL ever did see with
Cynthia Freeland, Matt Money Smith here, Bill Smith, my uncle
is with us as well, and Darner. We excited to
(00:22):
have you listening because we got these twenty thousand simulations
at Cynthia runs and her very special uniquely tailored to
her algorithm Montique Carlo method, whatever you want to call it, uh,
in order to give you a better idea of what
she thinks or her model thinks, is going to happen
to you. Something fancy foodsball Fred, that's what the street says.
(00:42):
Santhia puts her ears just straight. This is what she
comes up with. Or I started singing before I know
you're gonna start the pod, and that's embarrassing. That's okay, Hey,
look then it's live the way we do it, all right.
Sometimes we pull back the curtain. Let you know what
it looks like, how the sausage is made. That's what
we're doing here today. I would ask you to tease
something or do a quick pick, but hey, we got
(01:03):
two games, so what's the big deal, right, Yeah, I
mean we could do one if you want one, but
you're gonna get all the quick pigs, all right, so
let's go. Uh do you want to recap the divisional
playoff picks? Because you were correct on all four straight up?
But against the number two of four, uh correct paths
Eagles Dallas so close, So that's so far away. And
(01:27):
the one that I was wildly off on was the Colts.
I think everybody was felt like a lot of people,
we're feeling the Colts and it got sideways on them
in a hurry, and um, well yeah, zero third down
conversions is kind of one way to go with that.
Zero season. Andy Luck a terrible much like the Chargers
(01:47):
heck of a season. Chargers terrible Divisional round heck of
a season. Andrew Luck could not have looked worse in
the divisional round. And look, it's a reminder and and
we've become prisoners at the moment all the time, right, Uh.
Teams that get to buy and have a home game
decided advantage, I mean incredible advantage over the wild card
team that has already been on the road one week
(02:09):
and then had to back to back it while the
other team was just kind of kicking back and playing Fortnite,
and I think we saw that in the domination of
those two games particular. I would agree with you. All right, Cynthia,
you ready, I'm ready? All right? Here we go in
se Championship Rams at Saints three and a half total
fifty seven, and your model says what model says? The
(02:30):
Saints win fifty six point four percent of the simulations
the score I have you ready for? It's even surprised me.
Thirty to six. Okay, that's four, that's four, and that
go is. Look, I've been doing this long enough to
know what your model does. It's typically pretty close because
I'm guessing the folks that make these numbers are doing
a very similar thing to what you're doing, Cynthia, And
(02:51):
that's why the numbers are what they are. So really
not a surprise that you tend to be right around
a half to a point and a half, especially with
something point where I thought the number was going to
be closer with Sheldon rankcase, like when I was thinking
about it prior to And this is how you know
it's not biased, right because I I legitimately when I
was running I was like, oh no, all season long.
I've been hyping the Saints own and then it came out.
(03:14):
I was like, Okay, we're still in it. We're still
in it fairly. We're good your preseason prediction of Saints v. Chiefs.
And we'll find out what the model says about Chiefs
be Patriots in a minute. But it still holds. So
why why does your model like the Saints? What what
jumped out at you? Well? Before we start that, I
wanted you talked about that fifty seven is a key
point total. I have fewer than fifty seven points scored
(03:35):
in this game in almost sixty the simulations. Which of
all the things that are you know, the way things
come out in in these championship weekends with such close games,
that's the highest rated thing, the highest interesting to me
because you have a head to head from this season
and you have a head to head where the total
was eighty. I'm gonna say it again, it was eighty,
(03:58):
not eighteen eight zero. I don't know if your big brain,
without your model and your numbers that you can punch in,
can wrap your head around this. But that's twenty three
points more than the total number three has in three
touchdown pretty much two of them with the two point conversion. More,
(04:21):
that's how big that number was. So how does that,
I mean, you know, to stop being a smartass, How
does the model reconcile pointing to a lower total when
you have an eighty burger that you would, I assume
consider to be a pretty decent chunk of what you
want to look at when you're trying to figure out
what's gonna happen in this game. Yeah, so I do
(04:41):
look at the things that are gonna have in this
game and look for the differences. I mean, there are
some blaring differences. We are we already touched on Sheldon
rankings rankings not playing in this matchup, but in the
first matchup there's no keep to leave and that's a
big difference maker for the Rams defense. You also have C. J.
Anderson who has kind of changed the configuration in the
offensive structure of this t we used to before he
joined the team. They're running eleven personnel with three wide receivers. Wow,
(05:05):
I can't talk today. Three wide receivers six point six
or so at the time. Now they're running twelve personnel
using heavier set like something like twenty eight and a
half percent at the time, so you have to factor
in changes. You also have to factor in what we've
seen the city. The Saints and Rams OH lines have
both intermittently been kind of hurt banged up. We're not
really sure if they're gonna be able to protect each
(05:26):
other the same way we saw in this first matchup.
So I mean, you know, we we talked about all
of this in the previous weeks, but the Saints OH
line looks good last week, but you know, we're not
sure right when, we're not sure if they're completely healthy yet.
And that Larry Warford versus Aaron Donald matchup is going
to be really key on the one side of the
ball and then the other side of the ball. I
mean Cam Jordan is rushing from the side and Jared
(05:46):
Goff hangs on to the ball for a decent amount
of time, so there's there's some increased defensive efficiency. And also,
you know, I'll give it to the Rams and I
don't want to, but their run defense looks pretty good
against Ezekiel Ellett, holding them to only fifty yards to
total rushing. I don't like to compliment in Doma kuno,
but I will. You know what, that's it. That's why
(06:07):
you write a check for fourteen and a half million
dollars That fourth and one play was worth fourteen and
a half is crazy as it sounds. One play play
of the game, a fourth and one, Dallas goes down,
they score that touchdown, they convert in that games tied,
and I do believe that Jared Goff and the wheels
fall off. I just knew. I think they played so
well and to see that slip away when they look
(06:27):
to be the far superior team very well could have
cost them the season. And Doma consumed to play of
the game. I mean, it's it's that simple. And I said,
I don't like it, can do That's why I did it.
So that was that was worth the fourteen and a
half million bucks right there. Whether or not that holds
this week, UM, you know I know that, I know
you hate it, but um and and I don't. And
(06:49):
I'm not pointing to it like like it's a giant
trend home road splits. But looked at Jared Goff to me,
just he's just not the same guy. He's not the
same guy away from home. I think he can get rattled.
I think the moment can get to him. And um,
I think that that's I don't know how you quantify
it um because every opponent's different, every stadiums differ in
(07:09):
every game straight right, It's it's it's hard to say, oh,
he's terrible on the order, where where did he play?
Did he have games at Pittsburgh and at Baltimore and
at Green Bay and at you know that you never know,
but it just if you've watched the Rams this year,
if he gets moved off his spot and when he
goes on the road, he's just he's a different dude.
I also think you saw this in the Eagles game
(07:29):
big time. You saw all of their like the Saint's
offense got helped out by some untimely defensive penalties that
were just not paying attention like you know, a whole
because they weren't quite ready. They were a little caught
off guard. It was potentially something with the noise. I mean,
these are just things we hadn't seen the Eagles defense
do in in previous games or recent games. So you
(07:50):
saw some. You saw some of the fact of like
how loud it is in the dome. You you did
see that play out with increased penalties last week. So
those are the type of things where golf still a
young core back. I know, there's like he's had some
really big wins in this playoff win is a big
deal to avenge like losing to Atlanta last season. But
you know, he's still young and this is a hard
environment to play, and so you could get some of
(08:10):
those pre snap things, especially you know they use they
use motion, they use things that are a little tricky,
so those things could get confused in there, So that
that is something to look for. But you know, especially
if you get in third and long situations, that could
be a really that could be tough on Jared Goff. Yeah,
I mean, I guess the one. The one thing, and
it's a pretty big thing to point too, is that
(08:31):
when he was there in the regular season, you know,
he they got they got into a hole and he
climbed out of it and he had a great game.
I mean, Jared both. That's what's funny, right is we're
kind of talking about that. Jared Goff on the road
a little shaky. Yeah. I like, actually, I'm actually less
anti golfer. I don't blame golf as much as I
blame well two things. One, when you run the same
(08:51):
formations all the time. Eventually, a good defensive coordining is
going to catch up to you. And Chicago, like Vic
Fango got a head coaching job for a reason. This
guy amazing at scouting and figuring out ways to just
crush the pressure from every direction on the defensive front.
So I'm not blaming Golf and much like I think
of that Chicago game as the one where like, is
Jared Goff really not that good? Is he? Like you
(09:12):
know whatever? Whatever? That it was the back back right
as the fact he wasn't good against the lines, wasn't
good against the Bears, wasn't good against the Eagles for
a really good chunk of that game. And I think
that's just and because it was so recent, right it wasn't. Yeah,
I just don't. I think it's as my statement already, no,
you don't have to retroactive, but it's just more I'm
just more worried about like, look when when he has
time behind Andrew. Look, there are some stats that pointed
(09:35):
Goff being good quick passes, those thrown under two point
five seconds, but he just doesn't do them very often.
He's more of like a three second kind of guy,
and that Andrew Whitworth left tackle being healthy and all,
like the whole line is a really big deal. It's
just it just is his has been terrible, you know,
and he was good against the Cowboys. He wasn't look
at the difference, you know, and that's because they ran
(09:56):
right at I mean, look, that's what they want to do.
They we can talk about the fly I sweep. They
want to run outside zone and everything runs off of
outside zone, and that it has all year. I mean,
we get excited about the big plays, but the big
plays come off the outside zone runs of Todd Gurley. Uh.
And now you have inside zone with C. J. Anderson,
who's running in that offense in Denver, Forever anyway, so
he's comfortable, like, hey, what are you doing? We're running
(10:17):
inside zone? Great, I know what to do. It's it's
not hard, um. And that's why when you look at
that game, you know, you had Gurly rush for over
I'm looking, I'm looking at the box score. Now rush
for over five yards per carry. Uh. You had Kimeara
running for over four yards per carry, and oh what
do you know? Drew brees through for four touchdowns and
a pass area of one seven and three fifty and
Jared Goffe through fore and three because they're running games worked.
(10:42):
The thing about the running game working, and the reason
that the reason that my score is low, going back
to your initial question, is because that running game like
slows down the pace and keeps the scoring from getting
out of control. So just so you know, like that's
where that comes in, right, that you think that will
be more of a cowboy they wanted to look more
like the cowboys less the chiefs, is what the Rams
(11:02):
are looking for. Yeah, exactly, but I do want to
I actually spend a lot of time figuring out how
to navigate Sheldon Rankin's being gone, especially after we saw
a billion, ok like two fifty rushing yards out of
the Rams last week, and like the dual purpose used
with C. J. Anderson and with Todd Gurley, and like
how the two of them created confusion and they just
kind of change the looks for them. And Sheldon Rankin's
(11:25):
is he's a big loss. Like he's like a I
mean Steelers fans of your ears, right, Like that tackle
on Juju Smith Schuster that costs the forced fumble to
essentially save home field advantage for the Saints the season,
Like that's a three hundred pound gigantic dude, like turning
around in space. I also went to BC right, and
there's a Louisville game that I remember was a bowl game.
(11:48):
He also stole Boston College souls in a game in
a move very similar to them. It's a lot of
a lot of souls to be stealing Boston College to
stealing all them souls keeping them for herself. He has
a little jar of souls. I've heard. It's not confirmed.
It's just source told me. Unfortunate, right, So that is
going to be a problem. And that then the fact
(12:09):
that if if the Saints defense doesn't come off looking strong,
especially against the run in the beginning of the game,
they gotta force share off into more obvious passing downs.
And they've got to make sure that Ei Apple, who's
a liability, they've got to make sure that they have
him in the situation that works from meaning things in
front of him. He's he's got to stay like with
this guy, he's got to be put in the corner
(12:31):
where he has his chance to succeed. So that's that's
the things that the model is saying that they will
successfully The Saints will successfully be more like we saw
during the regular season when they ranked second against the run.
And yes, I know nobody ran on them when they
were playing with the lead. I get it. But they
still only allowed three point six yards per rush, which
is ridiculous. So that's a huge deal. So the model
(12:52):
believes in the fact that the other elite players like
to Mario Davis, Cam Jordan's, all of these guys in
their front are gonna be able to recreate some of
the efficiency from Sheldon rankings or more, they're not going
to lose too much of that efficiency in the run game.
That's what the model says. Okay, model very strong thoughts
about Sheldon Rankings though probably clearly he's like a point
(13:12):
guard basketball. He's like a good he's a good assist guy.
And I think the Ramps are the better team. I
just I think they're the better team. Are you gonna
try to woo me with to leaves shutting down, Michael Thomas,
Because I might believe now to leave is not going
to shut down, Michael, you don't think so. As much
as I like to keep, to leave, that is not
the answer to shut How do we shut down? But
let's just get a thirty two year old guy that
mishf the season out here, It'll be fine. Are they
(13:33):
gonna try to blitz Drew Brees because that's not good.
They're not gonna that's they're They're have the good worst
passer rating on blitzes and Breezes the right. The guy
had freaking thirty five points by the time you blinked
in that game. I think I think they had thirty
five in the first half. I remember, right, Um, god,
this is a tough one. What are you gonna do?
Are you relying on Breeze being under pressure because he
(13:53):
does have the third largest drop off one under pressure, well,
especially in the pressure seven points. That's that's the different.
It's not edge pressure. It's straight up the gut with
Aaron Donald. But they're going to triple team him. I mean,
they will not let that guy beat him. If they
get beat by Dante Fowler off the edge or Littleton
or or something like that. Fine, you know that they
(14:14):
will not. I promise you it will be a double
or a triple team on Aaron Donald every snap and
it'll be up to the other guys uh to do it.
You know what, I'm gonna go ahead and say that
Marcus Peters blows it that he'll just bite on a
double move, and you were cheering for the Ram or
I thought you thought the Rams are gonna win. I do,
But then the more I think about it, I feel
like that's I don't like the fact that that guy
(14:36):
got absolutely torched. The entire regular that doesn't and you
want to spout off. It's like, you know what I'm
gonna I'm gonna I'm gonna go bat, I'm gonna go battitude.
I'm gonna go Marcus Peters. Battitude is why I'm taking
the Saints. I'm with you. And a reminder, you can
stream every NFL Playoff game live on your mobile or
tablet through the NFL app or through the Yahoo Sports app.
(14:59):
All right, good to know, Patriots. The Chiefs Arctic blast.
Chiefs are the numbers. Three Chiefs, three total. What you got?
The Chiefs winning in fifty six of the sims. The
score I have, wait for it, one to four points again,
I blow them out. I think it's funny, you don't
(15:21):
you know what? Everybody? Everybody believes strongly that the Rams
are gonna win, and very few people believe that the
Chiefs are gonna. I'm surprised that they like it's the
Rams are like by far who people are voting, if
you know what I mean, they're voting for the Rams
and then after that the number has been voted on
and it's kind of made it closer. But people don't
(15:43):
people there's maybe there's just a lot of Patriots fans
that are voting to speed on the Chiefs, And I'm like,
how are you gonna keep up with that? Well, if
you try, then what's that If you try to keep
up with it, then crush you in the middle of
Travis Kelsey, Like, I just to me, it's such a
I just look at it and I see like it's
a bad matchup for the Pats. And people can say, oh,
(16:04):
you're just all butt hurt because they humiliated the Chargers. No,
I'm not. I'm just telling you. I think it's just
a bad matchup, you know. I think the Pats. Yeah,
if the Pats could have chosen, do you want the Chargers,
you want the Ravens. I think they would have taken
the Chargers. I don't think they want anything to do
with Lamar Jackson coming up there and that defense. You know,
I think it's the same way. If the Chiefs had
a chance to choose between the Pats and the Chargers,
I'm guessing they would say give me the Pats. You know.
(16:26):
That's because look, what's the one thing they do really
really well? Rush the passer, you know. I mean, that's
the one thing they could because they can get it
from both edges and up the middle. So if you're Brady,
and that was one thing the Chargers just could not do.
Um and a lot of the defense they were playing, no,
I mean they were playing that cover their defense and
just cushion. Hey, Tom, get rid of the ball. Well, joey, Uh,
(16:47):
your corners are giving me nine yards of cushion, so
I can pretty much get rid of it right after
I take the snap because there's no one within a
first down from them. So sorry, uh maybe maybe, Well,
we'll see what happens in the fourth quarter he does
make an adjustment, we'll see if something happens there. But
then in the meantime, I actually thought we're gonna see
Brian Hoyer. I don't mean to be mean at all,
but I thought we might have a Hoyer sighting, because
(17:09):
if it were me, I would have put Brian Hoyer
in the forth, I'm getting a helmet in the middle
of his back from one of those guys, or maybe
they just said, well, none of those guys are ever
gonna get there. So it was. But but I think
what I'm getting at is I just it to me
looks like a bad matchup on on paper. I don't
know who. I don't know who keeps up with Tyree
Kill and if you do, Sammy Watkins, and if you do,
(17:31):
Travis Kelsey and the Andy Reid can play the Patriots
game as well. He can screen you to death with
Damian Williams all game long. If you're gonna, you know, so,
if you're gonna play off those guys, which you can't
afford to do, then well, all right, here you go.
Guess what. Guess what, Bill and Josh, I'm gonna do
what you do and I'm just gonna dump off because
they did that to the Chargers when they played that
(17:53):
Cover three, they were like, Okay, Damian Williams, Damian Williams.
Damian Williams had a monster game. So the first thing
you brought up was the Arctic Past and Arctic Blast.
Guess how many games between. Don't look in the Google doc. Okay,
a little sneak. Okay, between two it's the guy do
our podcast. I have to look at it, unsneak right now? Okay,
(18:13):
so just for this moment, look away hurt you guys. Okay,
since two thousand three, so you got fifteen years there.
How many games have been thanked for that math genius,
You're welcome. How many games have been played between fifteen
and twenty five degrees? Yes, in the last fifteen Well,
I guess technically if this is nineteen, it would be
the last sixteen postseasons? Right, How many teams between? How
(18:36):
many games between fifteen and twenty five degrees? This is
postseason games? No, just any games in the entire season.
I don't know. Yeah, so like sixty year or six
seventy year, right, which means it's not that crazy. So
we have enough of like a we kind of know
what's going on the way bigger deals win, the way,
(18:58):
big climate change. What's the trend? What if we had
the last three years at mahomes may not know about
that's playing cold weather. She's been less it has so
the only thing that matters is really wind in these
and then like excessive precipitation. So you're like the precipitation
stuff from not as worried about the wind could be
(19:20):
a factor to keep an eye on that. But just
because it's cold, it doesn't matter. That it's not that
it doesn't matter. It doesn't matter that much. No, it doesn't.
I mean that's I had that exact conversation on the
field when it was twenty degrees at Foxboro, and everybody
said exactly what you just said, which is, as long
as there's no as long as it's not wet, and
as long as it's not windy, it doesn't matter. We
get used to the temperature within the first five minutes
(19:42):
of the game and some place, Yeah, some people wear
with some people do like other stuff. But they will
tell you, um, the one thing, and guess what if
it's an Arctic blast and there's all that snow, it's
not going to be five degrease because it doesn't snow.
People for the Midwest to have to bring to this
because people don't are stand it can be too cold
to snow. And that's it's the one thing that when
(20:03):
it was extremely cold, and this is where it could
come into play, receivers will tell you if you've got
a quarterback with a hose. That can be a problem
if they don't know how to take a little something
off that. It is harder to catch that ball. The
ball gets a little bit harder, and if it's coming
with some zip uh a, it can hurt be it
can break a finger um because that's that's the one
(20:24):
adjustment that yet. But it's not gonna be that cold.
So it's not cold enough for that. No, I don't
I mean, I don't think it's cold enough. I don't know.
Let's look it up. What do we think that? What
do we think the temperature is going to be two?
That's what I have. Let's get a look right now,
can't now are you cheating? Oh? I looked at it
before we just before we started. Oh you did? Are
you cheated? Did you look at Kansas City, Missouri? Did
(20:45):
you look at Kansas City, Kansas? I looked at the
Arrowhead Stadium right now, Sunday, Okay, we my, my, that's
exactly I can tell you right now. That's exactly what
the Patriots and and Chargers played in out at Foxboro.
And it certainly did not look like it affected one
offense at all. As a matter of fact, because they
were able to throw it around to the tune of
(21:06):
about four yards. So there you go. So they do
you talk about quarterbacks, So let's start there right So
you I mean, look when we when we talk about Brady,
we talked about my homes. It's just two different styles, right,
Like they both they both have a little bit, just
a little bit. It wasn't like good pressure. They both
(21:28):
have some good pressure stats this season. In fact, like
you know, they Mames twelve touchdown passes under pressure, which
is three more than tom Brady is nine. That's second most,
first and second most. So they've both been good under pressure.
It's really when you when you boil it down and
you saw it in this Colts game, it probably is
likely to come down to those first two offensive drives
(21:50):
for the Paths. If the defense can pressure tom Brady
just like we saw them do with the Colts and
limit their ability to score in those first two drives specifically,
then like really favors the Chief's ability to game plan
and keep it manageable. Not saying tom Brady can't mount
to come back in this situation, but it's more how
many points will he have to overcome in this one?
(22:11):
So for me, the thing that's the thing that's key
are those first two defensive drives for the Chiefs. Now,
we saw Eric Barry practice today, but I don't know
if he's even if he's playing, it's likely to assume
he's not. And safety play, especially in the red zone,
we didn't really get to see it last game. We
spent so much time talking about on the pod, but
they don't really get in the red zone, so really
(22:33):
hard to see how their safety playing in the red
zone was gonna work out. But they still have the
league's regular season thirty one ranked red zone touchdown defense
and when you look to see safety play has been
the reason for that, and that like they have like
a second highest completion percentage allowed in the red zone
if you look to see, you know between Gronk, between
(22:53):
you know, James White, who I think the Patriots have
like saved for the playoffs. He's the little playoffs neck
and then julieteen receptions in a game. What's the big one?
The one thing I'll tell you real quick on the
safeties and just that secondary which has been solid all year. Uh,
and it's it's just kind of one of the many
head scratchers coming out of that Charger Patriots game and
what they were doing. But um, I saw a stat
(23:15):
at the end. Actually know, I think Warren Sharp posted it.
Uh when because we were watching it the whole game,
We're like, why are they not attacking the outside more?
You've got J C. Jackson and Mike Williams. Uh, You've
got Keenan Allen who absolutely dustede to find Gilmore on
that double move for the touchdown to start the game.
When Philip Rivers targeted his outside wide receivers on first down, uh,
(23:36):
the average completion was nineteen yards with a passer rating
of one fifty eight point three. The five times they
decided to run it on first down, they rushed for
one point eight yards per carry. It was wild that
they did not go after that. And you know, when
you think about those outside weapons, if Sammy Watkins is
healthy and he's got Tyree Hill on one side and
Sammy on the other, holy god, I mean that's that's
(23:56):
kind of what I'm thinking about when I'm talking. This
thing could really get away from them in a hurry. Well,
it really solidifies it for me, is you know, the
the problem is is if you try to so want
to use a computer vision on the Patriots defense when
it notices they are not the Patriots defense. On the
the defenses who face the Chiefs, they have, they spread
(24:17):
them out a lot more often like it actually like
equates to yards, So they're the most spread out because
defenses are forced to contend with perimeter speed from Tyreek Hill,
Sammy Watkins, you name it. Who they put outside, then
you have to so you have to to honor that.
Then you have to keep someone on Travis Kelsey and
in this case it is probably Devin mccordy, which is
a huge mismatch in favor of Travis Kelsey. And then oh,
(24:40):
by the way, you got Damian Williams exactly that screen
game you talked about. And then oh, Patrick Mahomes he
could rush the ball too. So the spread defense, the
space that they take up. You're totally right, because there
are some stats that will show that actually the Patriots
have been like really good against deep passes and they've
been targeted the high ist rate, like fifteen point one
(25:01):
percent of their attempts, highest rate in the NFL, and
they have the lowest completion percentage on them. But that's
because those are more obvious past the situations where we
don't have to honor all of the different potential dynamic
things that are going on in this one. So taking
away the deep play plus accounting for Travis Kelsey, that's
going to be a lot like you saw it in
the first game. Tyreek Hill had a bazillion yards in
(25:23):
that game and three receiving three receiving touchdowns, right, so
that was ridiculous. And then Travis Kelsey had sixty one
yards but no touchdowns, so they kind of picked one
over the other. And he'll but for that turnover in
that game that really solidified it in favor of the Patriots,
Like that could have been a different outcome easily. So yeah,
(25:45):
I mean, look, I and also just kind of the
the one interesting thing about that game right at the
regular season game, and I forgot to bring that up
and ask you about that, just like I did the
Saints and Rams game. But and it's something that I saw,
you know, in that division, what heck everybody saw it.
What they have found with this James Devlin, Sony Michelle
just kind of jumbo package two tight ends, Dwayne Allen,
(26:07):
Rob Gronkowski was a freaking wrecking ball. When you've got
Devlin and Gronk and Dwayne Allen who was blocking his
tail off, and now you've got that big back in
Sony Michelle. Their power run game was impressive and that's
remember that's how they got that game started. It was
a ton of Sony Michelle with James Devlin with Gronk blocking.
(26:29):
So if they can get on that, especially if it
ends up being an Arctic blast and it's a giant
snow game. But remember they got them coils in the field,
which is cheating over there at Arrowhead. There are no
more snow games out there. But if they can get
on that kick and now you win that time a
possession battle, then maybe they've got something. But I don't
think this is gonna be your Tom Brady Julian Edelman
(26:50):
uh game. This is gonna have to be that Sony
Michelle three touchdown game if they're gonna have a chance,
because again it's gonna be time of possession and power running. See.
I think it's like the get some sneaky plays in
with like a James White and the Reds, like, like
I said, talk about targeting that red zone defense and
those lack of safeties for the Chiefs. Do it with
like a James White in those in that situation, run
(27:13):
up a lead and then Usty Michelter run the clock.
Like that would be the way too. I don't think though,
you know, like I don't know, don't establish a lead
and then and then and then control the clock because
because they're being able, they'll be able to control. Like
the Chiefs haven't been good on defense all season, right,
Like what we saw last game was an anomaly in
the other direction. Zero was just terrible. I think about that.
(27:36):
Pressures were really good and then Luck couldn't come back,
so they had You've got Adam Vinitarry Adam ni mrs
exactly uh mrs. The shortest field goal of his career.
He misses an extra point. Andrew Luck is routinely like
even when he wasn't under great pressure, just dirt balling.
(27:57):
I mean, he is throwing those balls at the feet
of his receivers. He looked, he just looked like he
was rushed. He wasn't taken time to make his way
through his progressions. And they still had a chance. And
like yet they still through how bad they were and
they were terrible, they still had a chance. And that's
I guess That's kind of where I'm trying to figure
out what to make of Pat Mahomes, who, very much
(28:20):
like we talked about with Drew Brees, hasn't quite been
you know, these last couple of games have kind of
gotten away from him a little bit. You know, it
hasn't quite been the guy that that we were used
to seeing for the first third team. I don't know
what am I talking about. Now. I'm trying to talk
myself out of the Patriots thing because I'm reminding myself
about how good Sony Michelle wasn't that first match up
with them with that power run game. But now there
(28:42):
safety start talking. So here's here's good stats because mine
are junk. Well, when you look at like these two
teams both do something kind of counterintuitive to the rest
of the league. They both play man coverage a lot
more often than the average NFL team. I think they
ranked what second and fourth first top five. Both are
the top five in terms of percentage of man defense
that they played through the course of the season. The
(29:04):
problem is is if you try to do that to
Patrick Mahomes, Who'll use a slot receiver and crush you,
or he'll beat you over the top with Tyreek Hill.
It's big plays in this one that is really the
reason for my model picking the Chiefs. That the Patriots
have kind of sneaky given up, like they're what dred
and eighteen big plays number six, they're tied for number
(29:27):
six most big plays given up. Patrick Malmes himself is
seventy six completions of twenty plus. That's the most in
the NFL. And obviously, like we already knew, yeah, Kansas
City already gives up the most big place. So all
they have to do is have a few key stops
and they're really setting themselves up where they don't need
that complementary every down sort of your third down percentage
is good on offense, and my third down percentage on
(29:47):
defense is good too. They can they just need a
few possessions different like where they can hold Tom Brady
in order to to kind of overcome that. Right. So
for me, it's all about it's those big plays. It's
the fact that they use man and like if you
try to use man, good luck see you later. With
perimeter speed. If you try to use zone, we'll just
use Tyreek Hill. In the scene like that, we saw
(30:08):
them do that. It was a seventies six yard touchdown
in the first time, seventy five yard touchdown, and that
on that seam route and zone coverage in the first matchup.
So that's the thing where it's not fair to only
look at, well, it's not fair for the Chiefs to
only look at kind of one configuration of defense and
be like, well, they're good in man and they play
a lot of man. That's good in this And you know,
you have to add it up in context because it
(30:29):
is truly that spread and the and the fact that
they have so many different options that gives them the
edge in the model. And again, it's a it's a
four point game. It's not like I'm saying it's going
to be a total blowout. But then you almost picked
the Chiefs or then almost picked the Patriots. Well run game.
But I think the more the more I look at it,
(30:49):
and I guess the reason why, I don't you know,
like the people come at you with stats, Oh, we'll
look at his rating and stuff. I was like, man,
if you watch that game against the Colts, he was
missing guys that were wide open. It was it was
not a great game for him. You can you can
show me all the cool submarine throws and look at
the no look pass and see how he whips it
around this corner. Okay, well, here's five throws where he's
kind of clean pocket. He's got a guy on the
(31:09):
outside and he's whipping it over his head by three yards.
And it just seemed like there have been more of
those as of late than we saw. And I think
that's kind of what happens, right when you got a
guy that's that's a Sports Center highlight and a highlight.
Real dude, yeah, sports Center highlight. You don't want any
of those, you know what I mean, Like you don't
pay attention to the Oh, by the way, here's the
here's the five throws Lamar Jackson, you know what I mean,
like the Lamar Jackson, Like, here's the guy who can't
(31:31):
throw to the outside. He just he can't do it.
And so okay, great, that's a beautiful seventeen yard run.
Uh that included thirty yards of running east and west
to get there. But here's I guess here's the wartz
and yeah, but but just because but again, I don't
think there, I don't think there's nothing. Well, just because
the Colts offense didn't play well, well, didn't mean that
the Colts defense wasn't playing well, you know what I mean, Like,
(31:53):
it's not like you were seeing Patrick Mahomes versus even
an average defense, right, this is is a well but it
was a well above average defense. So I don't and
I know, we were looking at the Colts offense and
you're kind of like, man, they cannot like they can't
stay on the field. But their defense they were playing
it was okay. I mean it started slow, their defense
started slow, and they everybody it's it's hard to start
(32:17):
fast against against exactly well no, I mean they just
got torched in that the first couple of possessions and
then they settled in. Yeah, but it's not like they
were playing poorly for the whole game though. I mean,
I guess that's my point, right, Yeah, I'm with you,
I hear you. I just I don't know. I find
it hard to believe that the Pats are gonna keep
up with that speed. But whatever, so we both agree
(32:37):
on both My gosh, what's this doing really? I think? So,
I mean I feel like, yeah, wow, that's I mean,
I feel like that's kind of like the mic troubles
after my four and oh wild Card week. I believe
I went one in three. If not zero and four,
I'm trying to think, what the Oh no, no no, no,
I think I might have gone zero one four Last
week I had the Chargers loss, Cowboys loss, uh, Colts loss,
(33:05):
and now I took the Saints. Okay, perfect loss. Yeah, four,
way to go. I'm the guy you want to listen to.
I'm gonna change my picks and it's about no. You
got all the bad karma out, You're all for the
good karma. Now, Hey, I'm four and four? All right, Bill?
What did we miss? Because poor Bill has to like, listen,
put up with mine? Bill? Why don't you just jump in?
(33:25):
I think it's worth going back again. I know we've
done this, rehashed her preseason Super Bowl pick a lot
as Saints over Chiefs, and it is still that way
one to Now did it stay that way throughout the
entire season? Have there been ebbs and flows where there
were other teams that, you know, when Kareem Hunt is
no longer on the Chiefs at that point where the
(33:47):
Patriots the favorite in the a f C. Were there
times where well, actually I think it was the Chargers
right because they were like one game out of that.
It was that when the Charges were poised to take
over the division. That was the time in the Chiefs
strap out of first and when the Saints were potentially
facing not having home field advantage, they also if it
(34:08):
wasn't close, then they then they slightly went under the
rams and the Bears could have overcome had they had
one more, just not one that not lost that one
damn game. But whatever, Eagles, you know, absolutely double Doink
can't get rid of double Doink. The Cody Parky, now
(34:29):
with him? How about his kids. You've got to go
to the elementary school in Chicago and you've got the
last name Parky. God, Cody, you can deal with him.
I think he's gotta I don't know if he's got
kids or not, but if he does, what I mean,
he knew something in Chicago. Yeah, that's scary. Telling you
don't be going out for recess King of the Mountain.
You're gonna wear it and get your face pounded in
(34:51):
the snow. And that's mean. But guess what. I grew
up on those streets. I know what it's like out there.
I lived in Bridgeport for a little while. We're good there,
you go Um, he's very young, he's only six, does
not have any children in elementary You never know. Philip
Rivers had like fourteen at that point. He had like
several children. He had several children when he was drafted,
(35:13):
so he did for sure. He went to NY State.
My dad went there. We watched on the draft, we
the whole thing. You know, he had at least I
think too sounds about right. Yeah. I believe he's got
a daughter junior in high school right now, probably drafted
with at least one exactly. Um, but what don't we
miss about any of the games because you've gone through
the billion times to day. So one thing to look
(35:33):
at I think it's interesting is you have the two
home teams with the advantage in this game, which means
they have the higher percentage to thus go on and
win the Super Bowl. If stay home field were reversed
in these games, what sort of adjustments would the model make.
Does the model favor each of the Saints and Chiefs
on a neutral field or is the fact that they
have home field still the bit a big determining factor
(35:55):
at this point for the Saints. It would switch it.
I think, Um, I ran it with out. But because
I don't. I didn't run it with Sheldon rankings. I
should have done that, but the loss of Sheldon Rankings
and traveling would have switched it. But I know that
for sure because of I ran it just now. But
I should have done it with Sheldon rankings. I'm sorry,
but you run it with Sheldon Rankings in New Orleans
(36:16):
and then without That's what I mean. If it was
how many points difference was the model based on the
big defense. People are going to hate this answer because
it's not a round number, but the it was about
two point two points, so it was like it was
a slight difference. And remember it's it's not neutral, so
it would be it was I ran it accidentally ran
it without Sheldon Rankings in Los Angeles, so I think
(36:37):
it was like another one or two points below, so
like four or five points. Again, just goes to the
outline how big the run game is for the RAM
this past month. It almost seems like Girly going down
may have been a little bit of a blessing in disguise,
helped them reinvent themselves, got out of just eleven personnel,
diversified their offense, and now with that eleven Bill I
(36:57):
think that they still ran that outside, so I mean
that was still kind of the spine of that play,
you know, even with those three receivers, you know what
I mean, Like that's and and and. I guess if
you want to talk about, you know, getting out of
eleven and getting into twelve, then I think that's I
don't know if they just decided that haven Steam was
too much of a liability on that right side and
(37:17):
it was tough to run that way, so I just
put an extra tight end over there. I think that
was maybe just a product of that. Um. I definitely
so fascinating about them, right is it's just like they're
the ultimate, Hey, you know what we're doing. Good luck
here it comes, try to stop it and the Cowboys couldn't.
And I just I love teams that do that, you know,
that are like whatever, we're gon, we're gonna run this
one play and there's gonna be nineteen variations of it.
(37:39):
Try to try to crack the code. That's my point though.
I think now the defensive coordinators have a little bit
extra to think about. There's like, well, what if they wrinkle.
They've developed these past wrinkles over the past three or
four weeks, like what's the next wrinkle they may sort
of develop in Los Angeles, and I think that little
bit of doubt, maybe that little bit of fear that
(37:59):
creeps in to the defensive coaches mind, may help them
down the stretch. And then when I ran it also
for Chiefs Patriots at home, um, that one switched. It
was still it was still Chiefs, but it was only
by it's one point two points. I know nobody likes
the fractional points, but it's a model. So that's how
it works. It's on a neutral field. The Chiefs are
still considered a better team. They're still considered a one
(38:20):
point to better team on a neutral on a on
a neutral field. So in Patriots they would at Foxboro,
they would have been favored. Patriots would have been favored.
The Patriots would have been favored, right if it would
have been in Foxboro. So home field advantage. That's a
weird place to play, man. Foxboro's creepy. Go through those
little that little neighborhood and it's nieves on the trees
(38:43):
and your wine and you know, if you get car sick,
you're jolting back and forth, the roads bumpy. Do you
feel like they're taking you out to the woods to
put you down, like it, and all of a sudden, Hey,
it's Gillette Stadium. It's like, wow, where did that come from.
There's a guy just freaking chopping wood with an axe,
you know, and there's a mini work running around and
now all of a sudden, im at a football stadium.
Like it's just it's crazy. It's a weird. It's just
(39:05):
it's off putting out in the middle of the woods.
It's definitely something. Um yeah, no, it's hard. It's a
fun place to I don't know, I've had fun there
just because I don't know. It's fun to go to
games there. But I love it. It's one of my
favorite stadiums. It's an awesome stadium. But I mean I
can totally understand why. And you hear it from players
a lot. They're like, yeah, there's some weird about that place.
Like yeah, it's it's called the one lane road that
(39:26):
it's like, it's not like there's some people are like, oh,
it's like Green Bay. It's like it's not like green
Bay friendly. You walk and you're like, oh, it's kind
of nice here, you know, this is creepy. No, definitely
not friendly walk in thinking know that there ain't tools
in that shed of yours. I don't know what's in it.
I don't want to know, but it ain't tools. And
I don't like this place. I want to get out
of here. And that's just kind of the vibe you
get out there. So that doesn't surprise me. But look, Arrowheads,
(39:49):
tough as all heck. Place to play. Obviously we know
how loud it gets. Um anyway, Yeah, anything else, Bill,
I think we're good. Do you have any like spicy
touchdowns this week? Between the two games there? I think,
like James White one is actually like a little spicier.
I think everyone goes it's all Sonny Michelle, you don't
(40:10):
think that's spicy. It's gotta be someone. The guy's got
the super Bowl record. He should have been a Super
Bowl m VP. Was he the super Bowl m VP? There?
He wasn't right, it was Tom Brady. That's a load
of crap, is what that is? Should have been James White.
I have a shameless plug for my article. I just
wrote a couple of articles NFL dot Com slash Freeland.
There's like three of them. Are two of them up there? Now? Well,
there's one up right now on the ten most underperforming
(40:31):
units in the NFL. Oops, sorry if your team's on it,
not sorry to um. There's one coming out tomorrow that's
like the four biggest matchups at these two games, one
on each of the ball but the ten the ten
most underperforming units. One. Here's my tease for it. One.
There's a shot at Matt Lafleur kind of unintentional but
fairly fairly justified, I mean justified and fair. That's the
(40:51):
first one. And then the second one there's a shot
at Jimmy Graham sorry or actually more Brian good against
for overpaying. All right, uh, next week, you know doing
we're doing an award. We're doing awards. We're making our
own basically, we're creating our own roster of awards on
this pot right here soon to see who our m
VP would be like if we were instead of like
Pro Bowl voting, we're creating like an analytics driven winner
(41:14):
for each one. So you got to think of your like,
you're like fan guy with you know, like the heart
and soul fan guy. No, like like the heart. You're
the most creative. Now you're the most creative person, the
most creative person that I know, so I want to
hear what you have to say. There's no patronizing here,
(41:37):
Matt money Smith. Matt money Smith, you know I'd never
patronize you. I really wouldn't. I want to hear your
creative like, because you'd creative like. Puns are all gonna
have alliteration. Everything's gonna be perfect, and I'm gonna be like,
damn it, I do grammar and I do like. I
don't do grammar, and I don't do creative writing. I
just do math. And you and you're gonna be like
wonderful and funny and make people happy and like the
(41:57):
math girl again with her model three words for you
know what I'm doing mailing it in. That's what my
awards are gonna be. All right, that's gonna do it
for us. Uh. We will be back again next week
with Cynthia's statistical model All Stars, and then of course
we'll be back super Bowl week. Thanks again everyone for downloading, listening,
(42:19):
and again remember you can stream every NFL playoff game
live on your mobile or tablet through the NFL app
or on the Yahoo Sports app. Can read Cynthia's article
at NFL dot com slash Freeland all of her posts.
Thank you to Bill Smith, to Shawn Shoppy, to the
name of Fun, the Enemy of Fun, Mark Brady, and
to all of yous who download, who listen, who leave
(42:39):
us reviews and pass it along through social media. Thank you,
thank you, thank you. Just a couple more of these
to go, a few more, I should say, before the
end of the season, and we can't think you know
for subscribing and supporting
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