Game Theory and Money Divisional Round Predictions & SB Probabilities

NFL analytics expert Cynthia Frelund has doubled her efforts, running 20 thousand computer simulations on the 4 big Divisional round matchups. She and Matt "Money" Smith give you the most thorough breakdown of each game you're going to find. She has exact scores for each game, plus she has updated info on which of the 8 teams has the best chance to win it all, and which one has the least.

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
Welcome to game theory and money and Bill Smith. That's
what's happening. It's the postseason, and guess what, it's the playoffs.
So there's twenty thousand simulations for every single game, not
just ten tense for the regular season. We do twenty
thousand with Cynthia's fancy Monte Carlo model in her special
algorithm that specifically suggests who's gonna win these games, by

(00:24):
how much? And most importantly why. So let's get to
our recap of our wild card week. Cynthia, guess who
went for for four? I don't know who I did.
That's who I went four for four. That's who went
for for four? This guy, what did you do? You
went three for four? Why? Why did you go three

(00:47):
for four? Tell me, Cynthia, what team was it that
let you down that led you to a three for
four day instead of a four for four day? Like
this guy? I was just hoping you get some of
that extra playoff money, know, like the players get. Don't
you get, Like don't you get like a quarter million
dollars if they make it to the Super Bowl. I
think they each get two grand I work for free.

(01:08):
Oh I thought you also got two grand No, I'll
get nothing and like it, but I'll get But the
only reason you went three for four is because strik
the Ravens over the Chargers, and the Chargers of course
get out with not only the number but a victory.
You went one out of two on your confidence picks.
Whatever that's old s Let's get to the new stuff.

(01:30):
We start with the freelance favorites. You like the favorites,
and we start with the Chargers of the Patriots divisional
around the Patriots. The number is four, the point total
is forty six, and you like, what like the Patriots
to win? In fifty eight point nine percent of simulations
the score I've got twenty six to one. So it
is not a big, huge victory. It is a just

(01:54):
a little bit more than four, just a little bit more.
So what is it what led you to the paths?
And because your model doesn't, I don't think it takes
into consideration all the historical factors that many folks are sharing.
I mean, they're fun historical factors. But unless the teams
are part of the doppelganger. So unless it's like this
team looks a lot like that, you know those past teams,

(02:14):
than they really wouldn't be included because my model really
looks at this matchup today because you know what, unfortunately,
like you know, three years ago, Patriots teams aren't actually
facing the Chargers today. It's fun even though it's fun,
staff just a little different. So this is based on
this this year's teams and is kind of the key. Yep.
So the run game is the key, and this one
for both sides. So the Patriots are allowing the most

(02:36):
rushing yards on first down since Week seven, so five
point six yards since Week seven, that's crazy. They got
worse as the year went on. It's up to seven
point two in the last five games. And by the way,
the Chargers offense four point nine yards on offense on
first and down the season. So that's a good one
in favor of the Chargers. But when you add up
kind of the reliance on the run game on the

(02:57):
other side, and you look at the way that this
downhill running physical, using a fullback, using heavier personnel like
two tight end sets twenty one and twenty two, which
they do you know, second and fourth most often in
the NFL. You look at those heavier sets and you
look at the match up against how light, so a
lot of defensive backs playing linebacker positions kind of out

(03:18):
of position there. You look at that physical, downhill style,
it just favors the Patriots and their ability to be consistent.
They've earned the most or sorry, they're fifteen point six,
so they're top four in most first downs on first
and second down, so don't even have to wait till
third down. And they've been consistent that that all season long.
So it's really that consistency and the downhill style, physical game,

(03:41):
using devil in all these things that give the Patriots
the edge. Yeah, the one thing that the Charges are
going to have to do because you're not going to
slow this off well, you have to slow this offense down, right.
The Patriots have regularly made a living and success in
the old um you know, just methodically moved their way
down the field. It is especially with this particular group

(04:02):
of personnel. It is not a big play offense. It's
you know, we're going to get, like you said, fifteen
point six first downs on first and second and a
lot of that was with heavy package and a lot
of between the tackles runs. So the Chargers gonna have
to do kind of what they've done all season, which
is be a really good red zone team and there
see if you can, you know, look, would you like
to slow him down and make him fun? Of course,

(04:22):
But it seems like the Patriots have kind of proven
over the course of an entire sixteen game season that
they're pretty good at making their way into opponent territory.
So they're just gonna have to not allow them to
cash those in for touchdowns. And that's something that this
defense has been very good at all season long. So
I want to ask you the Melvin Gordon not practicing
today situation, is that, just like precautionary, are you worried

(04:43):
about that when I'm modeled worried? Should I be modeling
him like or se or should be modeling him? No,
I wouldn't model him at a hundred. I think he's
definitely banged up. I think you know that knee. I
thought it was a lot. I couldn't believe he came
back in that game and actually had some effective runs
after he came back. I mean, it looked like it
was a serio vious knee injury. Came back with two braces.
He doesn't like running with braces on, but he's gonna

(05:05):
probably have to do what I would imagine. He rolled
an ankle two weeks ago. Um, you know both niece
this season, so he's fought. But I kind of I
described the Chargers rush attack as it's not Melvin Gordon,
it's the it's the collective, right and you you even
saw it late in that game against the Ravens with
Justin Jackson. He's got some wiggle and he's got some
power in between the tackles. So when you have I think,

(05:26):
and and by all accounts, it seems like Austin ekel percent.
When you've got a Hunter percent Austin Ekeler, and then
you're gonna get those seven to ten carries. Maybe for
Justin Jackson. I think that's okay for Melvin to not
be a hundred percent as long as he's you know,
let's say eighty or above. I think that allows them
to stay balanced and be very effective in the run game.
Do you think okay? So do you remember how many

(05:47):
sacks each team? Okay, the Chargers have had between weeks
nine and sixteen, or games nine and sixteen, so second
half sex but both the Chargers and the Patriots rank low,
no higher than nineteen in total sack for the season.
But which team do you think actually has fewer sacks
like their defense? Which defense? I guess? Here's here's what

(06:10):
I would say. I think I would guess the Chargers
have fewer sacks sixteen and seventeen. They both are not good,
but I would go to more recency bias in that,
just because Joey Bose is finally and I think when
you see what happened last week was pretty good. I
mean with eight sacks, and you look back to Denver

(06:31):
and I think they had four or five sacks in
that game. I think they ended up changing one to
a tackle for loss. But I think in the last
three weeks we've seen and that even goes back to
the Baltimore game they lost right when they allowed Lamar
Jackson just thirty nine yards rushing and they were piling
up a ton of tackles for loss to UM, I
think you've seen this team get back to what we
thought it was gonna look like a little bit more

(06:51):
right than than what ultimately gave you a full regular
season worth of stats. I'd be very surprised if either
one of these teams was all to really move the
ball against the opposing defense. Um, I think just with
that offensive line and it struggles specifically on the interior
for the Chargers all season, and just for Tom Brady's

(07:12):
kind of lack of weapons, um this season. You know,
some of it's on him, but a lot of it's
just on a banged up gronk uh and not fast.
It looks like a step slow Edelman and a pretty
average Chris Hogan ever since they lost Josh Gordon. So
I think, you know, that kind of leads me to
think that this defensive line could maybe find a lot
of success. Um, you know, because he's got to hold

(07:33):
that ball just to take longer and and that tick,
you know, could very well be Joey Bosa Melvin Ingram
in your lap? Okay, my one last thing, how are
the charging Here's here's my question. How are the Charges
going to solve this? Okay? Chargers have allowed passing ys
on screen passes this season that ranks six point six
yards per pass on screen screen passes ranks. How do

(07:58):
they solve that? For time? It's pretty good at those
turns out. I think probably tackling would be my number
one thing. It's a team that has been poor at
tackling at least through the first half of the season.
I don't know what their numbers. If their numbers look
a lot better the last let's say six weeks, but
at the start of the season they were a pretty
poor tackling lunch um, so that would be that would

(08:19):
be my answer. I don't know the exact solution of that.
I do think, um, I do think that part of
that could be solved by those six defensive or seven
defensive backs, you know, exchanging speed for power. But then
you give up teams tackling. Yeah, it's it's it's a
big yike's um. At the same time, if you're not
afraid of anybody coming over the top on you, which

(08:41):
I don't think you have to be with this team,
that helps to you know you can you can you
step that play exactly, you know where you're not worried
about that guy taking the top off so well, and
I just want to look at Philip Rivers knows this,
I'm sure, but anytime he gets Keenan Allen or any
of his receivers Mike Williams, Tyrylle Williams against McCarthy or
Duron Harmon and those are the two most vulnerable in

(09:02):
their backfield, so their defensive backs for the Patriots. I
will pass that alone. Yeah, you know, just let them know,
Just let them know, in case, in case you needs
to know. And remember, you can stream every NFL playoff
game live on your mobile device or tablet through the
NFL app or through the Yahoo Sports app. As a
matter of fact. All right, that's the only favorite that

(09:22):
Cynthia likes. Let's get to the dogs. Uh you like
the points? And there it is down boy Cults Chiefs.
Chiefs favored by five and a half total fifty seven
And um, what do you got? Chiefs win fifty six
point six percent of the simulations the score I have
thirty to twenty six. All right, there we go, four points.

(09:44):
This is the one. You know. It's funny that people
like think that my model is like biased towards them,
because of course I would like want the Chiefs to
win by a bunch because they're my preseason Super Bowl pick,
and I value being right almost over anything else in
my life. But I like being right too, don't we all?
And I also like but also like recently I started
to like the Colts for kind of no reason. But
the McDaniels theory right. So this is a really tough

(10:07):
one for me because I can see the Colts winning
this game. I look a look at the thing, and
I'm like, oh, they've been the best tick in the
a f C for the last eleven weeks. But five
number one, last five number ones in the a f
C mad of the Super Bowl? Are they gonna buck
that trend? Hey, yes we are, because, like you just
mentioned when you talked about the Patriots, turns out those
five number ones aren't playing on Saturday or Sundays. Completely

(10:29):
new teams. I mean. And by the way, the Chiefs
are kind of a number one, you could argue right
by default because they were you know, they had one
loss in division. The Chargers had two losses in division,
so they with the same record get the number one seed.
I look, keep going, because you know you'll have the
much better information than I will. But you tell me,
you've got arguably the best offensive line in the in

(10:49):
the playoffs against that group of defensive backs. You're gonna
give Andrew Luck an extra half second to three quarters
of a second against that secondary and man, I could
just going sideways for the Chiefs for sure. So here
are my fun stats that mean absolutely nothing, But I
think are really fun because everyone really talks about Andy
Reid coming off a bye. He's twenty and three. That's

(11:10):
a three point in games following a bye that includes
playoff buys. He's three and one in playoffs game following
a first round by last win two thousand two or
one in two thousand to two thousand four and lost
in He's gone one and done in five of his
last playoff appearances. That's read and the Chiefs have lost
their last six home playoff games. Okay, so now you

(11:31):
have like mo on each side. I just think those
those are funny just because it's always like Andy Reid
sucks and he reads great and he read sucks, and
it's like it's just hilarious. I don't know, I just
think it's funny. The boy stuff I get right, is
that that applies to Belichick as well. You know, when
you talk about the divisional round and he gets an
extra week to game plan, they can do some very
creative things. And I think the playoff comes into call.

(11:53):
It comes into you know, comes into the conversation for
Andy Reid because his teams tend to be what really
tricky offenses that you've got try to figure out and
I didn't believe it, but I heard it last week,
you know, from the players. They said, look, man, the
playoffs it's a different deal. It is a different game.
It's more physical. It's hard to imagine you can play

(12:13):
NFL football at a more physical level than you do
in any regular season game, but they do. And it
ends up becoming a little bit more of a street
fight when you get into the playoffs, and a lot
of people just say teams aren't built to do that.
That that that for whatever reason, that offense that he
chooses to run a lot of slide of hand and

(12:33):
misdirection and you know, we're gonna punch in the mouth
and you better, you better be able to punch back.
And I think that's maybe what's let him down, um
or I think the and I think it's also partially
because you know, has he ever really had a great
power run game? You know, when you because what is
what is like part of the narrative of his issues? Oh,
they went up by fourteen and they lost by two,
they went up by ten, they lost by one, right,

(12:55):
and it's like, where's your four minute offense? You know,
can can pat Mahomes jam that ball all and and
the Damian Williams gut and can name methodically put together
a seven minute drive when they need to. Yeah, the
Damian Williams is to me the most underrated X factor
in here, just because I mean, I don't I don't know,
if I don't know. I feel like people are talking
about everything else, but I haven't heard much abou Damian Williams.

(13:15):
But for me, this one comes down to kind of
exactly what you talked about, right, the interior in the
interior past rush of Chris Jones. So all all of
the narratives about the Chiefs defense or how much they
suck in certain ways, right, and one way that they
absolutely don't is getting pressure on opposing quarterbacks is awesome. Yeah,
Chris Jones. Nobody's I just don't feel like I need

(13:37):
to talk about him enough, like we talked about him,
but I don't know. Like he's been the second most
disruptive interior player, and I understand that that's going to
go up against this old line which has been awesome.
But if you talk about like Quinn Nelson still is
a rookie, and if you look at to see like
the crowd noise and the situations like that the past rush,
like the home team the home team has and I'm

(13:58):
going to say it later and I always hate home
road splits, but when it comes to like a little
more experience and the fact that you have this great
pass rush, it's kind of an advantage against an old line,
especially in like a rookie that that's kind of anchored
by this really really good rookie. So the Chris Jones
versus Quentin Nelson dynamic is interesting. It's going to be
an interest with Now he's not gonna line up against

(14:18):
him on every snap, but they're gonna rotate it around.
He's gonna line. They're gonna try to match that up
quite a bit, especially since Chris Jones has really come
on in like the second half of the season, and
now they have three guys with at least nine sacks.
I mean, again, sacks isn't the most helpful number, but
it's just one way to look at it. No, d
Ford and have been interest in Houston, but I mean

(14:40):
it's mostly been Ford and Jones. They've been fantastic. Yeah,
but again, that that's kind of I think I brought
this up last week, or maybe it was in week
seventeen or something. I said, that's to me, what is
so what tells the tale of how bad that secondary
is when you have that kind of disruption upfront and
you still have a secondary that is giving up numbers,
uh at that particular rate. And that's and remember Ryan

(15:01):
Kelly's back so exactly, so you're gonna have help on
that middle of that line as well, um as opposed
to a backup center trying to slow down that interior rush.
But it's will the Colts win? I don't know. I'm
not comfortable picking them to win that game, but I'm
with you. I think it's gonna be really close. And

(15:21):
I think that's when the whole Andy Reid can't win
a playoff game. And do you see a team unravel again?
You know that Sometimes it's is it fair? No, but
it's just it's the snake eating its tail right Eventually
you're just like, wow, are we really back here again?
We we've managed to come back to this exact same point,
even though we watched this Chief's team dominate all season long,

(15:41):
and Patrick Mahomes do special things and and if he can't, like,
I guess that's that's probably my number one thing is,
if I'm watching this game, if if the Colts do
what they did to the Texans, look out, you know,
look out. If they go up ten points, then I
think that's where you start to get all that second
guessing and things can unravel in a hurry. Well, there's
two things here. At first, the Colts defense since week seven,

(16:02):
billpoint is that earlier only fifteen point five points per game.
It's the lowest. And they have fifteen point five that's crazy,
number one scoring defense since week seven. And they have
six games on offense where they've scored more than thirty points.
So they have the formula to be able to beat
the Chiefs absolutely, and I don't necessarily think they're going
to be held to. Obviously, fifteen point five points per
game for the Chiefs is it would be it would
be weird if we saw such a low score. But

(16:23):
it's really interesting. It's a really interesting match up. To
me when I look to see, like where are the
most vulnerable they being the Chiefs. It's the Chief's defense
and versus Eric Ebron. Which one of those safeties you
really want Daniel Soren sit on Eric Ebron? Okay, got it,
Like thirteen touchdowns he's all about the red zone. He's averaging,
you know, over ten yards per reception in the red zone.

(16:44):
His use there obviously his touchdowns at thirteen is the
most all of that situation in the red zone, where
you know, the tenant of what we've heard Bob Sutton
say about his defense is like, yeah, yeah, pressure up
front and then be really good in the red zone
and like whatever if it's a bunch of yards, you know,
but like that's not happening when you've got a guy
like Ericie Bron and you don't have a healthy eric

(17:06):
Berry and you don't have a situation where your corners
can come in and help, Like, yikes. The one thing
and the reason why I'm not going to pick them
to win the game and I'm gonna pick the Chiefs
is everybody's doing me when you go back to week seven.
When you go back to week seven, you know they
were one in five. Okay, they played Buffalo, they played
the Raiders, they played the Jags twice, they played the
Titans twice, they played the Dolphins, they played the Texans,

(17:28):
they played the Giants. This this is a completely different
level of offense as they have not and I almost
wonder if it's like, hey, you haven't seen this. You
have not seen anything even remotely close to this. So
if they're even at that kind of battle tested like
they what are they gonna I don't know. They, like

(17:49):
I said, they haven't seen anything remotely close to what
this offense looks like. So as great as those numbers
are and as good as and look, you can only
play the teams on your schedule, I get it. But
to try to compare the Chiefs offense to the Titans, Giants, Cowboys, Texans,
Jags twice, Miami Raiders, Oakland, that's just it's it's minor

(18:10):
to major leagues to me. And that's kind of where
I come in and say, all right, I think they
can hang man. I I don't know if if they're
ready to deal with that. One thing that really stands
out as a good thing for the Chiefs is about
r p O so place a quarter of their plays
this season. It's highest rate in the NFL by a
significant amount. And then if you look to see what

(18:30):
happens when the Colts face r p os, it's seven
point six yards per passing attempt, fifth most. So it's
just it's just a situation of like, well, what what's
their bread and butter? Like, what can we kind of
rely on them to do? And a quarter of the
time is a pretty substantial number to rely on. So
for me, that's kind of where it comes to play. Again,
I'm saying it's going to be a close one. I

(18:51):
have the Chiefs like squeaking it out, but not not
a big aig for the purposes of this conversation. I
like the Colts for what I think will happen next Sunday.
I think a game will be played at Arrowhead. Um.
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be out of work. Here we go, Eagles at Saints.
Saints favored by eight total. You have what you have,

(20:59):
the scene twinning and sixty point one present of the the simulations.
The score I have is three. So that's not eight.
That's less than eight, it turns out it is. That's six.
Why so a couple of reasons for this one. First
of all, the interesting part is that they're kind of
like a lot of parallels between these teams in terms
of like strength versus weaknesses. They're both very good in

(21:22):
short passes. They both rely on a volume of quick passes,
getting out very quick to avoid their quarterbacks being under pressure.
They both have great run defenses. There's both. They have
some like interesting kind of parallels. And yes, I'm not
worried about what happened the first time. This is completely
different because look at this, look at the Eagles, completely
different teams. It's a completely different teams. So you know,

(21:44):
again we can talk about that, but it's not that
interesting to me, so I think we just kind of
move on from that. But ultimately, what was really interesting
is in the Saints, sorry, in the Eagles past four games,
their defensive front to allow to talk about these different
disruptive pressures, they've only doubled, So they were at like
seventeen percent. Now they're at like twenty eight point four percent,

(22:04):
so they've almost doubled their effectiveness in disrupting a quarterback.
So not just the sacks, but like all the things
that influence first downs and earning touchdowns. So it's really
that's a very like, that's a that's a tricky number
to get through. And their on line, you've seen them
being playing playing a lot better, and you've seen like
Nick Foles being able to execute these quick throws and
he's really at his best when he's able to do

(22:26):
that passes under two point five seconds. Every single stat
in the book about him is just so much better.
So that's the short passing for them is a really
really big deal. And then on the other side, it's
just really interesting to me, it's too if to look
at the oh line matchup between the Saints and that
front I'm talking about, Like if you look to see
like toront Arms said has been in and out, he's

(22:48):
been banged up all season long. It's gonna be interesting
because when he plays, that puts Ryan ram Check back
to the right. So Torn Arms said, left tackle, Ryan
ram Checked right tackle, and then Larry Warford the right guard,
he's going to be the one whose tasks was dealing
with Fletcher Cox and it's gonna yeah no, and then
the right tackle, Ryan ram Check presumably is going to
be it's going to be dealing with Michael Bennett. So right,

(23:09):
Michael Bennett rushes from the left end, and you've got
Fletcher Cox kind of with where the left guard is.
So the two of them together. So if you've got Warford,
who's probo caliber for sure, and you've got ram Check,
that's a way better situation for Drew Brees. Then if
Tron Arms said isn't healthy and they're shifting Ryan ram
Check over to the left, and you're not getting the
same sort of efficiency to stay away from Michael Bennett

(23:30):
and to stay away from and to stay away from
Fletcher Cox for sure. Now this one is tough for
for me for a couple of reasons. One, it just
feels like forever since we've seen a dominant Saints offense,
right like that that offense that we saw right there
at the start of the season. Drew Brees is the
m v P of the league. Whatever sentimental vote, Pat
Mahomes isn't getting it at A and B. And then

(23:52):
it just kind of fell apart the last few weeks,
not even the last few weeks, like the last six
weeks um and and then you kind of think about
the Eagles and it's like, Okay, so they beat the Bears,
but they beat a Bears team that had an offense
that was borderline in apt, that that could barely put
anything together. Uh. And they also beat him on an
icing the kicker, you know, time out because that that

(24:15):
kid went through they don't, you know, Peterson decided just
to sit on it, and they lose that game. And again,
I know, that's a really good defense and arguably the
best defense in the NFL, and you're on the road
in a hostile environment, but I just I don't think,
I mean, the Saints defense to me, is good enough
to to slow down this Eagles offense. And the Saints offense,

(24:35):
to me, is also good enough to do a heck
of a lot more against that defense than the Bears
were able to and we're still in a position to win.
I don't know if those two things are congruous or not.
It's just this to me, this is tough because I
can't I don't know if I trust the Saints offense
because I haven't seen it. But if I do, then
I think they win easy, uh to me, just personnel wise, offensively,

(24:57):
I think I think they end up winning this game
by at least ten points. Um. But at the same time,
I haven't seen it, you know, because they took off
weeks seventeen, so they've essentially had two weeks off, and
I don't know if that's what the solution was, if
everybody just kind of needed to heal up, which obviously
we know in the case to run arm instead they
did um, or if that Saints offense from the first
eight weeks of the season is going to return because

(25:18):
we haven't really seen it. Yeah, you know, it's interesting
you brought up the Saints pass rush and their ability
to get to the to the quarterback to It's like
I looked at I looked into this because they rushed
from the perimeter, not from the interior, so they're about
point four seconds longer than the league average. It takes
them from the time that they they the whistle blows
to winter time they snapped the ball until maybe being

(25:40):
disruptive to a quarterback or not. So there's they've been
good with pressures, but they have like the seventh most
defensive pressures in the league this season, but it takes longer.
So those quick passes from Folds, like that's going to
be a key. And and that's the thing is like
if you pass on this defense, New Orleans wants to
be in a spot where they're controlling all of it, right,

(26:00):
so you're gonna get that ten point when if you
if they can try to if they can keep in
control of all of it. But those quick passes from
Folds could be the antidote to that because they're not
going to be able to kind of rely on you know,
they're they don't have to stay like on their heels
right there. Neither cornerback group or neither defensive back, neither
secondary is something that I'm like, They're awesome, They're gonna

(26:22):
be so good whatever like Marshall Latimore is good for
the Saints, but as a unit, they've been very susceptible
and especially like defensive past interference calls like Eli Apples
very guilty of those. So who, well, yeah, the Eagles
know the Eagles are familiar with New York anymore, right,
So that's kind of scary for me. But you know

(26:44):
that that's an interesting that's an interesting one. And also
is like that, like the time to pressure being so
long helps helps explain why the Saints red zone rate
is low. Defense they allow something like the twenty three,
so sixty three point three percent of the time they
allowed touchdown. The don't like that's that's that's scary when
you've got some like Folds magic and by magic and

(27:05):
means short passing going on there. So that's interesting. But
ultimately to me, it's it's the fact that the Saints
of the best word I can think of is an
execution offense. Right. They're not relying on perimeter speed from
their wide receivers. They're not using like the spread offense
concepts like they do in Kansas City where they just
spread it very out and there's like you're an athlete,
go They're very They used to Michael Thomas offense right there,

(27:27):
like catching a little balls and fight for them, like
you're playing basketball out here, and album Kamara, you're playing basketball.
And really it's the run game and the Saints ability
to rely on their run game, whereas the Eagles can't.
They've gotten a little bit more tricky, like cobbling it
together in recent games, but it's it hasn't been a
source of strength for them, whereas Alvin Kamara has been

(27:48):
a consistent source of strength. Marking room there. They're they're
a consistent source of strength for this team. So as
I go back through the game, Law just real quick
to wrap up my point. Um, it wasn't all the
way back at It was back to week eleven. So
you got the seven yards passing against the Cowboys just
under two are just over two hundred against the Bucks
with a touchdown in a pick, the no touchdowns and

(28:11):
a pick against Carolina and the win. And he played
pretty well against the Steelers, which was an odd game.
And anyway, so I guess you know what that uncomfortable
saying Saints Drew Brees. Drew Brees is setting himself up
to be the Super Bowl champ because you know that
could happened the last time. Well, because you know the
league MVP never went Super Bowl, so that that's what

(28:32):
they're doing. He's trolling us exactly right. And remember they struggled.
I think they lost like three of their last five
or something like that when they made their run and
beat the Colts in that Super Bowl as well. All right,
let's go to Cowboys Rams. The Rams favored by seven
total forty nine and a half. You have what I
have the Rams winning in fifty point three percent of

(28:53):
the simulations with the score of twenty three. That's close
closer than seven. Certainly it is I can do that math.
I might be stupid, but I'm following you on that, Cynthia. Okay,
why so this is a kind of a bad matchup
for the Rams defense? There is, right, Yeah, there are
those five point one yards per rush allowed this season,

(29:15):
which is worse in the NFL. Like three of them
are yards before first contact. So not only is it
like they're not getting there in time, it's it's there's
two things, right, you can it's gap integrity or it's tackling.
So this one is kind of like both is the answer? Right?
The gap integrity is not great in the middle of
in the middle of their line, and then they're not
good at closing in on it. So it's like the
front seven is leaky and then the it's just not

(29:37):
it's just it's it's troubling when you know there's that
guy Iszekiel Elliott, he's pretty good at Remember when dominckin
Sue sent out that smartass tweet about the Dolphins run
defense and he was like, ha, you guys are terrible
against the run. It's like, well, ha, terrible, You're worse.
You give up five point one yards per carry and
the guy next to you is busy running up the field.

(29:57):
You know, as the greatest wrecking machine on a d
defensive line, all you're asked to do is slow down
the run and you can't do that. So to me,
this is hey and dominicans Wue, you made fifteen million
dollars this year. How about you earn it? How about
your earn it in the playoffs because you've been terrible
this year. I mean terrible. If that guy's if you're
if the guy next to you has to go up
field and that's what he's asked to do by Wade Phillips,

(30:20):
then it's on you to try to slow the run
down and show some pride and and because if he
can't do that, and it's not like, Look, the cowboys
are pretty good, and I'm sure you probably have these numbers.
I haven't looked, shame on me, but um, the Cowboys
tend to attack the edges, right, and that's kind of
you know, that's something that's that's been an issue with
the Rams as well. That's why they traded for Dante Fowler. Um,
you know they're trying to slow down the runs on

(30:41):
those edges, but if they come right up the middle,
and I have a feeling they're gonna try to do that,
because what's the best way to gate a pass rush
from an interior lignement to run right at them and
run right by them and just give him high five. Hey,
what's up, Aaron? Going this way, I'm gonna get five
yards because the Dominicans not gonna but that other guy isn't,
so I'll go here. It's gonna well, I think he's
gonna have that to me like that's it was expect there.
I think it's in Dominican sue. He's gonna have to

(31:01):
play up to his talent level, uh to paycheck level, right,
and a run stuffing defensive tackle. They need him to
do that. And look, I think it's interesting when you
when you when you bring that up, because it sets
up a situation where their defense where we've seen their
corners also be tarted, you've seen their secondary be tarted.
So give them the best opportunity to diagnose what's happening

(31:27):
or what's potentially I'm not saying that Das gonna all
of a sudden pass for four yards like he did
against the Giants, but I think like, look like, let
those let those let that be something that you're not
you're controlling, make them one dimensional, make it so that
they have to pass against you, and you know it's
going to be a passing situation, right, not don't give
up a bunch of yards all the time. It's Look,

(31:48):
it's a team that would much rather I think, get
into a fight with another past happy offense. I don't
think there's any question about that. And look at the
physical that physical front does not I don't think matchup
really well with their defensive scheme and style. And then
look at the other side, it's kind of also a
bad matchup for the Rams on the other side of
the ball too, because you've got an old line that's

(32:10):
been bangs up. It's hard to it's hard to know.
They haven't been playing. At the beginning of the season,
they played a lot better. It's presumable that their bangs
up now. But Rob Havenstein against DeMarcus Lawrences could be
that's not a good match yet. You know we've seen
Whitworth and Sullivan also banged up these last four weeks. Now,

(32:31):
that's what's great about the bye, right when you earn
a bye, you got a chance to give some of
your older guys six week in the scheme and he'd arguably,
you know, one of the best play callers in the
league in Sean McVeigh. You give him that extra week
to dial some stuff up. But also Todd Gurley, right,
like Todd Gurley is he Because if he's not, they're screwed.

(32:52):
Because it's all about big place. It's Todd Gurley in
the screen and screen game and Todd Gurley. You know
what's funny, It's like I was looking for something like
really sick see on this match up to be like, oh,
it's big plays because you see the Cowboys defense really
limit big plays, are very good at stopping runs of
ten or passes of twenty. But then you kind of see,
like what flags is like one of the most important factors, Like, oh,
Todd Gurley has gotten the most has the highest percentage

(33:16):
of rushes on first down that go for more than
four yards, And you're like, oh, so it's not the
sexy factor, but something that you talked about in playoffs
that's really important to like, you know, like the trenches
and the run game in control, Like that's a really
big deal. So it's not that sexy, but it's it's good.
I have kind of I guess that anecdotal bias, right
because I watched this team beat the Chargers in Week three,

(33:38):
and I watched just carve that defense up with that
fly sweep with just pick your receiver. They did it
with all of them, Cooper Cup, Robert Woods, Brandon Cooks,
Jared Goff, and Todd Gurley. And that's the key to
it is the defense is terrified of that hand off
to Todd Gurley. They're terrified of that hand off for

(34:00):
shovel pass on the fly sweep the Brandon Cooks or
Robert Woods and they're terrified of getting the top taken
off the defense down the field. Now, when it's not
Todd Gurley, and I know C. J. Anderson had a
hundred yards here and a hundred fifty yards there. It's
against forty nine and it was against the Cardinals, so
appreciate that. But whatever, Um, if it's not Todd Gurley
against Dallas, now all of a sudden, you're feeling pretty

(34:23):
good about paying a little bit more attention to that
fly sweet and making sure you don't let them take
the top off you, and you're a little less concerned
about c. J. Anderson destroying you on an edge like
Todd Gurley is capable of doing. Um, that's the secret sauce.
I mean, it's they There's a reason why they run
three receivers on every offensive play, and there's a reason
why they have more pre snet motion than every other

(34:44):
team in the league because it works because it freaks
you out when it's freaking Todd Gurley back there. Well,
on the other side, it's interesting because if you look
at you know, Laton Vanderesh and Jalen Smith's impact, they're
the duo of linebackers. Like when they're in the game
opponent to have been able to haven't been able to
rush for four yards the most often? Did I say that? Right?

(35:05):
So it's they're going limited. They've limited opponents rushing of
four yards the most. Is that English? I don't know.
I do math, so yeah, so that's that's interesting. And
they're athletic enough to get along those edges. Right If
Tyler Gurley tries to rush on the outside, or if
it's C. J. Anderson, you know, that's a bigger deal.
And they're pretty good in coverage against screen passes, so

(35:25):
that's going to be Todd Gurley is bring me the
Jenga pieces. I'm with you. I think it is. It
is the most important part of this matchup. And he
was held out today. I don't know if that's gamesmanship
by McVeigh and trying to get the Cowboys to think
that he's not going to be a hundred percent and
they're not going to honor him as much as they

(35:46):
ought to. And then next thing, you know, bang Brandon
Cook seventy five yard touchdown. Um that you know for
because Bryan Jones is gonna land up in coverage against
him and that's not going to go good because he
has them been playing well lately? So, but I'm with you,
I hear you. That's and which is why it was
surprising the Brian Schottenheimer didn't take more shots down field
until it was too late. Oh yeah, wow, Tyler Lock,

(36:06):
it just dusted the guy. Maybe I should have done
that a little bit more. Um, Oh this one worked,
got it? Yeah? The um Just to wrap up here
on all of the previews, Cyanthio, your picks. Um, you
have one favorite and then you have three where you
are taking the team to win but by less. So

(36:28):
you've got the Saints winning, You've got the Rams winning,
You've got the Chiefs winning. Which of those three do
you feel strongest about? Maybe losing, just straight out losing.
So the it's the answers of Rams that cowboys. That's
the as far as the model goes, that's the best chance.
He said, you was going to lose your points win

(36:50):
by So the winner percentages go six for Kansas City,
for Rams, New England fifty eight nine, New Orleans six one,
sixty point one, So sixty point it goes New Orleans,
then New England, than Kansas City then than Rams are
the are the order of things that the order of confidence.

(37:13):
All right, let's get your confidence pigs. I like, here's
you ready for it. I'm ready. It's gonna make sense
right here. Let's go Dallas with the points because we
went backwards. There see how this works. Indie also with
the points. Fancy fancy A shoppy was a little slow

(37:37):
on the trigger. There he was you there, you go, shoppy, peppy, peppy.
I like it. And then I think that in the
other one, this one, this one's an interesting one, but
it's pretty high. I think it's gonna be fewer than
fifty seven points in Kansas City and Indianapolis. Interesting, interesting,
fewer than fifteen point five points a game allowed by

(38:00):
the cold since week seven. I know, but like I
have thirty to twenty six is my final score, and
that's less, say, and you're making that a confidence pick,
and you got fifty six. I asked the model how often?
I asked the model often it went under fifty seven.
I didn't say what the most the most likely score

(38:20):
doesn't mean that's the like only the final operation, right,
It's like how many of the final scores? How many
percent of the time fifty eight point one percent of time?
The numbers under fifty seven, So fine, okay, you'd be
that way. It's yours. And by the way, at first
I kind of hated, like, look me and my model.
It's a machine. I sometimes like I get confused by it.

(38:43):
And I was like, all of the home teams are winning.
And then I realized three of the four wild card
teams upset the divisional winners. So that's part of it, right,
So you're not like getting you know you're getting like
the six versus the one. You know you're not getting
like or versus two or whatever. It would write happening
that it makes sense, but it does. You know, it

(39:07):
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(40:14):
That's mac Weldon dot com. Enter the promo code game
theory at checkout for of your first order. Bill Smithers
gave me a really really good stat You want it?
If it's historical? Yes, I'm gonna punch the TV screen.
It's a little historical. How historical since five and six

(40:35):
seeds are combined eleven and thirty that's on the road
in the divisional I see it. You know how Cynthia
feels about his story like that? No, I like historical data,
just like stuff that's like teams like this one teams
because it's not fair to compare whatever, whatever, you know

(40:56):
what I think, you know my thoughts on this. It's
time now four hour game Theory, money and Bill Smith
super probabilities countdown. We are taking each team's chance of
winning it all, winning the Super Bowl. We're no longer
focused on a f C NFC and then on top
of that make the super Bowl, win the super Bowl. No,
just straight percentage chance of winning it all. The number

(41:17):
eight teams, Cynthia Freeland, according to your model, with the
least likely chance of the eight left in the playoffs
to win the Super Bowl is the Eagles Horns. Eagles
at number eight with what percentage chance? Six five percent? Now, people,
by the way, when they post these on Instagram, sometimes

(41:38):
they see the people don't understand these percentages need to
add up to one. Like, I don't know what number
of people think they need to add up to. So
six point five isn't horrible. I was thinking, like, you know,
seventy seven or something. I think they think like everyone's
six point five, so it's not crazy. Yeah, the Eagles

(41:59):
are going to have to have some percent chance of
making the super Bowl, but it's not going to be
zero they're in there, they're playing. It's also not going
to be eight, so right, and then everyone else is
going to split up between the seven of them. So
six point five Is there much to say about why
at six point five percent outside of I don't know,
they're playing the Saints this week and then they'd be

(42:19):
a six seed and that doesn't often happen. And yeah,
I mean, look, the only thing that really it wasn't
a super convincing win last week, I mean a last
minute missed field goals like tricky to right right, Like
it's it's not like the most convinced. It's not like
they won like the culture far more convincing win than
than the Eagles. So it's really about like how they're

(42:40):
winning the chances for the remaining teams to stop them.
It's kind of really top heavy, so that both the
the two top ones I'm not gonna give away that's
a tease, that's tv UM. The two top teams in
the NFC have a much higher percentage than the two
tops in the a f C because it's just it's
just a big disparity between between the teams between the Rams,

(43:02):
Saints and then the Eagles. So that leads me to
believe I kind of know what's coming at number seven,
the number seven least likely team to win the Super Bowl.
Oh oh, Cowboys, Cowboys seven. One kind of studing your
conversation from the Eagles. Right, you have the Rams and

(43:24):
Saints decidedly with an advantage over the Cowboys and Eagles,
and that means that I guess those percentages kind of
have that up, right. Yeah, you know what's kind of
you know, what's really funny is that the Cowboys have
a decent chance, Like so of all the of all
the way teams that Cowboys actually have the highest percentage
chance in my model to win this week against the Rams.
Is just either of their next two opponents, like a

(43:44):
third rematch with the with the Eagles, if that's what
it turns out to be, or the Saints would be
a really bad matchup for them either way. So that's
really where that comes in. Yeah, you don't see either
the Cowboys. Are the Eagles going to the Rams and
or the Saints and winning those games in consecutive weeks.
Those are two of the model's favorite teams, and for

(44:07):
those two back to back is very low. And that's
why there at the bottom of the list. Perfect. Yeah,
it's not just winning against the Rams. It's winning against
the Rams and the Saints, both on the road exactly
for both of those teams based on you know, as
opposed next week, let's say the Cowboys upset the Rams
and that changes, you know, I would guess, well, yeah,

(44:29):
it would change also because there'd only be four teams
and there would be a much larger apply for them
to add up to a hundred. Right, they're all going
to go up no matter what, right, but like or
whoever's left. It's interesting you say that that they're all
going to go up, Cynthia, because we're going to get
to something. They didn't go up at all. But let's
start with the number six team that is least likely
to make the Super Bowl. What's a pony noise? Nay

(44:51):
seven the cult? That's my hoods clapping? Yeah, very good, Yeah,
just clapping two coconuts together. No, not alright, Colts at
seven point? What do we got? Look, the a f

(45:11):
C is tricky, it's a it's there's a lot of
the there's a lot of like log jam of teams
right there in the a f C. The Colts really
it's this one's about their I think it's honestly their
past defense that really flags as the biggest potential problem
for them. Not their their defense as a whole, as
I think underrated as far as narratives go. But it's

(45:32):
their past defense, and they do have some questions for
in their wide receiving core. If t Y Hilton is
not completely healthy, the depth in there with wide receiving
core isn't isn't deep, so as much of an advantage
Eric ebron Is and t Y Hilton. Beyond that, they
don't have a lot of receivers that are really consistent
and reliable, which is something you need when you make
it far in the playoffs. Yeah, it's tough. The Coults

(45:54):
are tough. I mean that's to me, that's just a
little bit low because I just think they got a
good shot to eat the Chiefs, and if they beat
the Chiefs, to me, that could be the one team
that that really could give them the biggest bit of problems. Um,
just because they have not seen the defense match on
this run, it is a bad matchup, But at the
same time it's a good matchup, right because their offensive
line has been so good and that secondary for Kansas

(46:16):
City has been so bad. So if you can counteract
those two things, um and Andrew Luck gets that extra
half second or full second to throw the ball man,
has he been good this year? Bill? Yeah? I mean
you look at these two teams and both these high
powered offenses, and you really think it may come down
and just which defense can make that one big play
at the end of the game. And which one do

(46:37):
you believe in? Bill, you kind of believe in the Colts.
Do you believe in fifty three Darius Leonard or relief
one of those two guys those range. Okay though, because
he did leave the game he was banged up. That's
something that like, that's something that you can't underestimate, like
if he's not theirs, their defense got a little pummeled
at the end of the at the end of the
Texans games. Absolutely true. They didn't finish that game as

(46:59):
strongly as you like. You hope they have everyone available.
It just seems like they may have one of those
playmakers that can make the big play maybe push them
across the finish line. If they can get Marlon Mack
going this week against the Chiefs that they can, then
they can control, right They did, but and then they
can control the clock and and really limit the opportunity

(47:20):
for Patrick Wilmes have the ball in his hand because
it doesn't kind of matter what defense he's facing. Even
though this is a good defense, that's a that's a
scary It's kind of like Oregan. I mean, that's what
the Chiefs are like. To me, it's it's Chip Kelly
Oregon heyday, where you would look at time of possession
and their opponent would have, you know, had the advantage
by like twenty five minutes. And I'm not abellishing or exaggerating.
I'm dead serious. They would have a twenty five minute

(47:41):
advantage and they would lose by sixty. It was just
explosive offense. The teams couldn't keep up with them. That's
kind of what the Chiefs have been this season. And
you know, for the Colts, they haven't seen anything like it.
So that's the most interesting part of that to me. Now,
before we get to the number five team least likely
to win the Super Bowl, I would like to go
back in time a week because you said something when
we opened the pod. You said I had what I said,

(48:04):
I had a chance of working in February nine point
three percent chance when there were six team When there
were twelve teams, twelve left in the playoffs, I had
a nine point three percent chance of going to Atlanta
as part of the broadcast team for the Los Angeles Chargers.
So let's see the fifth least likely team to make

(48:29):
the super Bowl. I'm sure the suspense is killing everybody watching, right.
Oh no, I can't remember at what percentage, So two
teams have been eliminated and their percentage chance of going
to the super Bowl is increased by one tenth. No no, no,
no, no no, no no. Their percentage chance to win the
super Bowl is now nine. Last week it was to

(48:56):
you worked the super Bowl, whether the Chargers win it
or lose it. This is to win the super Bowl.
Last week they were foiled again. Last week they were
four point nine to win the whole thing. You know,
it doubled, it doubled. You could have saved me their
bill instead of making me look like a fool again.
Why would have done that? Listen, I'll be a punching bag,
all right. Nine, What anything you want to share with

(49:18):
us on that particular numbers. I think we we went
through a lot of it, you know, like when we
went through a lot of it on the pod. But
this one ultimately comes down to you in this matchup
against the Patriots, who controls a run game, who gets
more production using that run game and then being able
to use their past catchers. Obviously, the Bolts have a
much better wide receiving corps than the Patriots, but if

(49:41):
they can't manage the style of offense Tom Brady and
the Patriots of the downhill running, physical attacking, if they
can't manage to handle that, then the Chargers will not.
You'll be doing this podcast and here you'll be in
person next week. I'm not coming to see you, No
chance I will. Just because of my bias, say, I

(50:02):
think you are wildly off. Now you have a like
almost doing the pod live with me next week, next
week even more, it's gonna go up to like nine
point five percent when there's only four teams left, and
I'll be vindicated. All right, let's get to the top four.

(50:22):
That means you have nothing but one and two seeds
left and the number four team the New England Patriots. Okay,
Patriots at sixteen point five percent, so only about six
percent more then or seven percent more rather than Yeah,
but the Chargers are only to win it less than
three percent more than the Eagles, who you basically were

(50:43):
just like, no chance. I didn't say, no, I was
that conversation. No, I was saying that people have to alright.
So so the Patriots at sixteen point five percent, why Okay,
Ultimately this one comes down to you. Their O line,
their consistency in earning first down on first and second
down so they don't even need to wait till third down.

(51:03):
There fourth best in the NFL in the regular season
at getting another first down off of first and second down.
So that consistency of their ability to run block, their
ability to effectively execute a run game, their ability to
use heavy sets or to strategically pass on first and
second down. But no matter what, they're earning first downs
at a really high rate. That control is a huge factor,

(51:24):
especially when you're considering the types of defenses are gonna
be facing. Okay, that means we have the Rams, Chiefs
and Saints left. I wonder who's gonna be real quick,
I just want to go through a little bit of
the difference in the model, Like you have nine point
four as the highest of any team that's on the road,
this week and then sixteen point five as the lowest

(51:44):
of any team at home. Is home field advantage the
biggest factor in that? Or is it the fact that
we had three road teams win in wild Card weekend?
Like what sort of sets up for that big disparity
in those two numbers. It's the three that's the three
road teams that makes the bigger difference in this one.
I mean those lower seeds. Now the Chargers. The reason
the Chargers so highest because like the Chargers were like

(52:04):
kind of screwed out of being right. So there's this
close thing that count for something. Unfortunately, now it turns
out a dozen because I'm gonna be on a plane
for six and a half hours the team, So is
the rest of the team. Yeah, and we just gotta
came back from They had that conversation from Baltimore. They

(52:27):
had that conversation with the what was it the Seahawks
Saints game. Remember when the Seahawks were seven or nine.
They're like, well, hey, you can still win the division,
but you've got to go on the road if your
record name is good. As the wild card team hit
the road, I completely not just because of it's the
Chargers in this case, but I back that you win
the division, fine, you can get in, but if your
record is nowhere near as good as you know, the

(52:49):
fact that the Ravens were two winds worse than the Chargers,
to me, that's like, come on, the Chargers are really
good on the road, obviously, but are really good at home.
Eight No somew's going to give best records. See the
won the six teams from the same division have the
two best records. They both get byes. Divisions don't matter
anymore that the man that's the nineties. Divisions are so

(53:11):
eighties back when it was the Norris All right. Let's uh,
let's get to the number three team Rams, Rams seventeen
point two. Okay, so just a little bit more than
the Patriots a little bit and you know it's funny
again he did. So. The funny part is both of

(53:33):
these teams, the Patriots and the Rams, they have deficiencies
against runs. So the Patriots defense allows rushing on first
on first down at a bad rate, very high rate,
so a lot of yards gained, and the Rams just
overall have the worst rushing average allowed in the NFL.
So that's an interesting dynamic of why those two have
lower odds than the two theoretical division winners. Right, So

(53:58):
that's I think that's like really interesting because it shows
you here and another thing like, oh, lines matter so much,
defensive pressures matters so much. And even though Aaron Aaron
Donald is the best interior pressure guy in the league,
absolutely the run defense just like really really makes it
a problem. Think about having to go to New Orleans,

(54:21):
if you know, if as soon as we have not
heard from them yet, uh, it sounds like that's what
the model is going to predict they have to do.
That's such a tough balanced offense to deal with, and
we already saw it, right. I mean, granted they were
able to rally and had a heck of a comeback
in that game, but I mean they've got a hole
early and you want to talk about having to try
to figure out how to slow down a run, Well,
then you finally commit to that and next thing you know,

(54:42):
Drew Brees is carving you up with Michael Thomas. I mean,
that's just a tough matchup for them, if that's what
it comes to. And that's why I would assume, well,
I don't need to assume. I know that it's either
the Chiefs or the Saints you have winning the Super Bowl.
They're ahead of the Rams because that, I'm sure your
model just thinks that's a bad matchup for him, absolutely
horrible matchup. All right, let's find out if the Saints
are the Chiefs are winning the Super Bowl? Number two,

(55:04):
the first runner up? Is that what they say? Well done,
your fancy paget walking the Chiefs seventeen point five percent.
It's their defense. It's it's their defense. I mean, I
don't know if I need to say much more other
than not their defensive front. I like their defensive pressures.
I like that, but everything else seventeen point five percent.
Their their offense gets them there, and their defense is

(55:26):
what what keeps them from winning. What's the stats? So
there's the five the team with the five best defenses.
Where are they right now? Who are where are they playing?
Five best scoring defenses? None of them are left in
the place, not one. It's weird, right, five best scoring offenses.
They're all still alive, all still left. The league has
changed because I remember that was a big one for
the Ravens and why a lot of people were picking

(55:46):
the Ravens their chargers. But to go up to New
England and beat the Patriots because of that scoring defense
and that always in it. Nope, not the case. Well,
as it turns out, when when Lamar Jackson turns the
ball over seven times, it doesn't really help or however
many times. Right. Welcome to the league, man, Welcome to
the playoffs. Welcome to a defensive front um when people
get to see a second time. That's why that'll be

(56:08):
interesting next year. Uh you see what the charges we
will do anyway, alright. That means the Saints are number one.
So if my math is correct, they have a wet
percentage chance eighteen point two. That's what I was going
to say. Glory for you, so point seven percent more
than the Chiefs. I want to tell you some I
ran some special extra simulations for you. So Rams and Chiefs,

(56:32):
guess who the winner of that is? Rams, Chiefs? I
would guess Rams, You're right, okay, sorry that actually I
would guess Rams just because of that secondary and and
I just would imagine Sean McVeigh would be able to
carve that thing up. What else you got? Saints? Pat Saints?

(56:52):
Pat Saints, yeah, not crazy Pats. So I wanted to
do the rematch Colts Saints like it? What do you got?
Not not as high of a margin as so the
Patriots lose to the Saints more often than the Colts
lose to the Saints. So it's a close margin. That's interesting.
It's almost identical to the Chiefs. I mean, it's not

(57:14):
super high numbers because we don't exactly know configurations. But
right now it's like fifty seven and fifty six, but
it's still still like really close. Do you have anything
for me? You know what? I charge you? Saints? So
it's breeze Vy Rivers. I did Breeze Vye Rivers the
Buddies Bowl, the Buddies Bowl. Who do you think wins
that one? I'm gonna go with the Saints based on

(57:36):
the eighteen point two to nine point four. I'm no dummy.
You know, I might be stupid, but I'm not a dummy. No,
but it's not, it's not. It's almost it's right. They're
all kind of hovering around the same thing. The Colts,
the Chargers, and the Patriots are hovering within two percentage
points of each other against the Saints, which is interesting.
And then that's the one that I have, And do

(57:57):
you know what happens in this one. Now, I put
health for everyone, so everybody's healthy, girly Gordon Keenan correct,
because I can't. I can't Cooper Cups come back from No, no, no, no,
it's remarkable. Are the worst there. I'm gonna punch you

(58:17):
know everyone that's on that's not on. I R is healthy.
You got it? Yes, guess what happens bolts. Yeah, and
you win two dollars and you have to share some
of that with me. I don't get any money. Yes,
I'm working for free. I work for free in the postseason.
It's the way it works when no, and I'm that
serious outside of telling people because you don't want people

(58:39):
to come all airports across the nation, and totally honest,
I do not get a single cent. I would have
to whether or not I get a ring. I don't know.
The Lakers wanted me to buy a ring from them.
I was like, take your ring and stick it. I'm
buying a stupid ring that I'm never gonna wear around
kidding me. Things are worth a lot. We're gonna give
it to you for costs. I don't care about costs.
You don't wear that stupid thing, So I don't have

(59:01):
a championship ring. What would I ever wear that dumb thing?
I guess I could wear it on the plane, right,
I can wear it on the plane. Right. The charger
has been like, hey, you see this. I worked pre
half in post for the Lakers broadcast. I have championship acumen.
So let me tell you boys, if you want some
of this action, come on over here in little Matt.

(59:23):
Tell you a couple of stories of how you get
one of these things right. It's ridiculous. Alright, Saints one, Chiefs,
two Rams, three, Pats four. We'll see if it holds
and where we sit next week. Well done, Cynthia, My
math is terrible, but thankfully Bill made a fool of
me in the process. Well again, we can't thank you enough.
A all season. We got two more of these things, says.

(59:44):
Next week will be Championship week, followed by our Super
Bowl game theory and money pod. Thank you so much
for downloading, streaming, listening, sharing, social media engaging. Uh, it's
been a great season, and we'll see whether or not
Cynthia is correct or the old idiot here, the smile,
the sweater, the haircut can go back to back. Wait
a minute, What did you tell me before the pod started?

(01:00:06):
Was you use in your hair today hand lotion? That's
what I do when I'm lazy, I use Uh. That's
that's an old broadcaster trick. I think when I've run
into multiple people that do the same thing. When you
get to the hotel and they have that Gratis lotion
and you're like, I don't really feel like doing the hair.
I'm just gonna kind of love the hands up here.
Keep the skins kind of dry from the pressurization of

(01:00:26):
the cabin on the plane, and it's a it's an
old trick. I would imagine when he had hair. Uh,
my favorite broadcaster, Keith Jackson probably did it, and I'd
like to think I stole the tip. All right, there
we go. Thanks everybody for listening to Shoppy for playing
the dog sound effects two Well, dun Sean, that was great.

(01:00:49):
Here we go. He is on it.