November 8, 2018 • 47 mins
Cynthia Frelund is coming off yet another week where she correctly picked double digit winners! This week, her computer model is favoring a bevy of underdogs, so this is a podcast you definitely need to check out to prep for week 10. Are the Cardinals really going to keep things close with the Chiefs? How sure should you feel about the Colts holding court at home against the Jaguars? Should you trust the Patriots to run away from the Titans? And get Cynthia's updated playoff projections for both conferences! The Game Theory and Money podcast has it all!
Saints-Bengals (2:25). Patriots-Titans (4:20). Chargers-Raiders (6:15). Cowboys-Eagles (11:05). Giants-49ers (14:45). Panthers-Steelers (16:55). Cardinals-Chiefs (22:15). Redskins-Buccaneers (24:15). Falcons-Browns (26:10). Dolphins-Packers (28:55). Seahawks-Rams (30:55). Lions-Bears (35:55). Bills-jets (37:30). Jaguars-Colts (38:25). FANTASY FIVE: HIDDEN GEMS FOR WEEK 10 (40:00). Cynthia's 3 CONFIDENCE PICKS (42:00). NFC PLAYOFF PROJECTIONS (43:00). AFC PLAYOFF PROJECTIONS (44:30).
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
Welcome to Game Theory and Money for Week ten hands
we make our way just past the halfway point of
the n f l C sent I'm here with Cynthia Freeland,
Matt money Smith, and our math magician runs ten thousand
simulations on every game. Thanks to her fancy model that
predicts how these games are gonna play out with exact
point totals, you'll know who wins, how much they win
(00:22):
by in what the character of the game looks like.
In a big thank you to all of you who
have downloaded, subscribed, listen, shared on social media, we certainly
appreciate it. And as we work our way into this
point of the season, Cynthia, we do have playoff percentages
that get updated, so you're also projecting what the postseason
is gonna look like based on all the information you
(00:42):
have through eight or nine games. And news flash, sorry Money,
you're gonna be working in January. You thought you'd maybe
potentially be able to, you know, start getting like only
like seven jobs instead of twenty. Still gonna be with
as uh. The Chargers finished the first half of the
season six and two. Uh, and you look at the
best cap for the schedule. I had kind of figured,
and I'm okay with that. You know them all right,
(01:03):
calling games for a team that is going to get
into the tournament. All right, give us a quick pick.
Let's get started, Cynthia. Okay, So in Lincoln Financial Field,
so you have to know where that is. We're not
gonna we're not gonna give it away. We'll give it
away later. But there's going to be more points scored
there than you might think. In fact, that meeting between
the two teams that are playing there is the second
lowest projected point total for the season, not for the season,
(01:26):
for the week, and I think that that gets obliterated. Okay,
way more points there. Points at the link. It seems like, uh,
points are a little bit easier to come by in
the NFL these days. So teams that historically have been
models of defensive prowess are getting blown off the field.
And it has been a point plethora all season long.
(01:48):
And I will say just quickly before we start and
recap last week the link and then you go there
you go, and then you got the clink, So east
coast link, West coast clink. Alright, recap Week nine straight
up ten and three against the number six and seven
you are one for three on your confidence picks and
(02:09):
that puts you at sixteen and um the season when
it comes to your confidence bigs. All right, so are
we ready? Week ten Freeland's favorite games that you are
in step with the number. We start with the Saints
coming off a huge victory. Mercury. Morris pops the champagne
(02:29):
because the Rams will not be perfect and that's right,
queue up the brass and the Saints get the victory. Ville.
Let's see, we got the Saints by four and a
half up in Cincinnati. And you know what's great about
this one? Who that versus whody? This is a whod
(02:49):
that hood a bowl so and it's very confusing because
the Bengals are hashtag seize the day. So that's I'm
just like, that's why, because they're the who days so
sees the day and they do they do. That's how
you get the little fancy thing on the you know,
with a little low, a little the little East rank
that you get from that. There you go, So what
(03:10):
do you got? Okay? So I have the Saints winning
outright in se of the models the most likely score
twenty nine twenty two. So that's by you know, a
touchdown in this one, which is more than the four
and a half points. Um, I do have a lower
scoring total. It's you know, twenty nine and twenty two
is less than fifty four, so that's it seems kind
(03:32):
of crazy because we saw an offense offensive explosion, and
both of these teams are really good at offense. But
the main thing here is really the Saints big play
ability and the passing game, and really the fact that
the Bengals on defense are very susceptible, especially to passing.
I'm not so much concerned that they have the lowest
total defensive ranking in terms of yours, but I am care.
(03:55):
I do care a lot about third down and they're
fifty point nine percent does rank course, so that's really
the biggest difference. I think I speak for everyone when
I asked how many touchdowns for Dez Bryant, that's what
I want to three this week, this week? Four Does
he play this week? I don't even know. I think
the answer this week is zero. And I think next
week we see him on the field and I think
(04:16):
he gets a touchdown. Okay, so we're going way into
the future, but I don't think he plays this week,
all right, let's go to the Pats at the Titans.
Pats coming off a thrashing of the Packers was supposed
to be a Brady v. Rogers showdown. It really wasn't.
And even quarterback played. Also, they don't play each other.
I used to hate it with Peyton Manning too. They
don't play each they don't. And obviously it's not fair
(04:37):
to compare one who's playing against probably either a better
coaching staff for a better staff defense whatever, maybe McCarthy,
but um, but I don't like him. It's just that
it's hard to say, hey, you've got a coaching advantage
when Bill Belichick is the guy standing on the other sideline,
and this one the Patriots win. In se of the simulations,
the most likely score comes out to t That is
(05:00):
more than six and a half, but barely by the
absolute slimmist that Away from that, how the Titans are
interesting just because of their their time of possession. Uh.
They are the ultimate checkdown offense and they milk a
ton of clock. But I like the pay it's a
little bigger here just because they tend to come up
(05:22):
with the big play the and it's sort of similar
to what we saw with the Chargers, where you have
the Titans just danking and dunk in the entire way
down and they're settling for field goals and outcomes Philip
Rivers and it's a one play touchdown drive and it's
a three play touchdown drive. And I know, ultimately that
Titans team you could argue should have got out with
the win. They had a chance to do it in
(05:42):
that two point conversion. And I think that's why a
lot of people view this as a team that can't
keep it close. But it just doesn't look like an
offense that's gonna be able to keep up with something
like what the Patriots have going right now on that
side of the ball. I think where the Titans will
ultimately end up this season is nowhere near how good
that they can be. And next week, next week, next season,
what we'll see from them. But really, in this game,
it comes out of the Titans offense. We're, like you
(06:04):
talked about not being able to kind of outpaced Tom
Brady and their ability on offense. Between again Malcolm Butler
and a hobbled Kenny of the car I just think
Tom Brady carves him up in that secondary. All right,
let's go to speaking of the Chargers. Chargers at the Raiders.
The Raiders continue to fall apart, and just because they're
losing pieces. They traded their defensive captain away before the
(06:24):
season started. Then they waived their second defensive captain and
Bruce Irvin. Uh, they have an offensive line that might
be the worst in the league. It's a big number
the Chargers on the road. Uh. And this is you know,
the big rivalry Northern California Southern California Bolts v. Raiders,
And uh, it's the Chargers by ten, which is a
(06:46):
big number. But at the same time, I think much
like Aaron Rodgers embraces that rivalry, rivalry with the backers
saying it trying to say rivalry week I gotta do.
It's just man, whenever I see in U c. L
A tangled or anyway, Uh, don't get it twisted. Rivers
wants to put it on the Raiders every time they play.
He wants to throw seven touchdowns and beat him fifty
(07:08):
to nothing. So if you think this is going to
be one of those games where uh, they'll go up
a couple of scores and then maybe just cruise Divic three,
now that that's not how that man operates he's looking
to humiliate this team. It's funny that you say fifty,
because I think that the that that's kind of where
the magic number is in this one, and I think
they stay under that, but I think they win by
more than ten. So have the Charges winning in almost
(07:29):
of the simulations, the most likely score thirty one nineteen.
That nineteen is generous, and that's that's a very generous nineteen, because,
to be honest with you, it's very hard for a
model to predict something in the single digits. We only
saw a couple of times just in general last season.
This season, you'd rarely see that, Like, but I think
it could be even bigger than that for my model
to predict thirty one to nineteen. You you're pretty familiar
(07:52):
with it. This is that's that's really that's a very
strong indication of the charges ability not only to win,
but also to to win significantly. So I don't necessarily
think that that is a high score. I think that's
a pretty decently a low score. But I think you said,
like two weeks ago, we're like, yeah, because it's a
lot easier to beat someone forty seven nothing to beat
that someone fifty nothing. Sad. It's it's kind of the
(08:14):
same thing, just real quick. One of the things that
I would point out, and I wish I had the
stant in front of me, but I got it in
the uh my prep for the game coming up this week.
Right now, Derek Carr is being sacked at a higher
rate than David was the year he got absolutely wrecked
as a rookie for the Houston Texans. It's not over
the course of the whole season. It was a recent
(08:35):
stat but I think it it paints that picture because
we heard, well, who knows what David Carr's career could
have been had he not been, you know, shell shocked
by all of the incoming he took that rookie season.
And because this offensive line is so bad and so leaky,
and that was one of their strengths. I mean, when
you talk about the interior that line with Jackson and
Hudson and assemble, it just hasn't been there because their
(08:57):
tackles have been such a liability. And that's you know
that teams aren't even rushing against their tackles anymore. They're
not even bothering to it's they're not even They're just
totally like you know what, I'll just come on the inside.
We're good. They're not even bringing perimeter pressure at a
rate that that really matters. It's it's kind of they're
just kind of like, well, it's I think it's clear.
(09:18):
I think it's clear what what kind of the Raiders
have been doing? And that's so went to long term
play is the got a piece of trivia? Um, So
obviously last time they met was my favorite piece of
sound from this whole Yes, Philips a defense. Huh. The
Chargers did push back on that and say that he
(09:39):
was not and of course I guess they would write
that he was not insulting the Raiders, but was pointing
it out to his teammate of sht it. Yeah, that's
exactly what. So alright, so here's my trivia for you.
This is a fun fact, fair friends. Okay, So Oakland
obviously last in NFL pressure rate in terms of total
pressures that odds up to thirty five. There are one, two, three,
(10:04):
four more for defensive ends, individuals, individuals individual defensive players
that have more quarterback pressures in the Raiders. All right,
I'll give you Myles Garrett, and I'll give you Aaron
Donald two or the other two. I mean, I'm looking
at it. Okay, good old g suite by Google. Unfortunately,
you can't you can't fool me with the trivia. I
can't play your reindeer games here, Cynthia, but go ahead
share with the folks else. I thought one was going
(10:25):
to be Khalil Mack's not he's been out about DeFord. Okay,
welcome to Kansas City. And Jerry Hughes, Yeah, I would
imagine just again bias and people are tired of hearing
if then Melvin Ingram's gotta be pretty close up there.
He's close. But but as a whole team, well, what
it turns out when you trade Khalil Mack and then
wave Bruce. So we were trading one of the best
(10:47):
pass rushers in the NFL before the season starts, and
then we're gonna wave the best pass rusher remaining on
our team. Okay, that's kind of why those numbers bear outings.
What's that critics are That's right, Janet, Critics are going
to beat critics, all right, Okay, all right, so let's
get to the Cowboys at Eagles Saturday night football. I
(11:08):
do believe that is the link. It is the link.
Lincoln Financial Field. We gave away that there's going to
be a higher scoring affair than we originally thought. However,
Eagles win in almost of the simulations. The score. There
you go. I like the screech of an eagle. I
went to Boston College. We had an eagle that screamed
like that every time we scored. And I always got
it confused with St. Joe's because the St. Joe's mascot,
(11:30):
see where all these Catholics to flap its wings the
entire game. That's like the trick. Yes, you gotta have
monster tries and shoulders to be St. Joe's mascot. Boston
College does not Baldwin. That's our eagle. He didn't need
to know. Baldwin just cruises, let's go on his head
quite often to do this like kind of like headstand.
But just think about that, I mean, just constantly flapping
your guy right, well or way better patrol man, you know,
(11:54):
way better Catholics than us. All right, what have we
got so? Right now? The number is Philadelphia by just
under a touchdown six and a half. You have a
score of eighteen most likely Eagles a ton and there,
and it's actually pretty convincing that they are win by
at least a touchdown until fifty eight percent of the
time thereby a touchdown. Why because their third down is increasing,
so the things that they need to do when to
(12:14):
win games, like in this kind of a misleading stat
so and in their wins they're they're converting on third
down at the time. In their losses at the time,
it's really the net difference of that spread, so that
that you're seeing there maybe in losses most most teams,
it's like fift ten percent. That's bigger than than what's
what's kind of a normal third down erosion when you
(12:37):
lose games and win games. But they're closing that gap
and getting Golden Tate, who's great on third down, and
it's yards after they catch on third down. That makes
a huge difference, especially since news flash, maybe not Shawn Lee.
Sadly every year a great player unfortunately just cannot seem
to stay healthy. I know there's there's no athleticism between
(12:58):
the lines attached to it, but the Cowboys just seemed
to be unraveling. When you've got Troy Aikman going on
Dallas shows saying that they need wholesale changes from the
top down to some degree questioning their coach. You wonder
if any of those players the coach. So, I mean,
well he kind of almost backed off Garrett and was
like it's it's not necessarily on him. I mean you could.
(13:20):
This is not a new thing when it comes to coaches.
I mean they've won. Like the stat with the Cowboys
is crazy. They have won three three playoff games since
they were last a dominant dynasty dynastic power in the nineties.
So I got the word dynastic, and I think everybody there.
So since nineteen I mean you're talking about twenty three years,
(13:43):
they have won three playoff games. And when I was
a mere elementary school students, I was ninety five. I
graduated college. About that, I guess that's true. I graduated. Yeah, sure,
I'm an old man. All right. So you have the
Eagles winning by eight, and is when we see the
(14:04):
Eagles really start to pull in Golden Tate. Yeah, you
have the opportunity to have to by week to kind
of gets settled in. Yeah, and and then I do
want to talk about you know, we talk there's a
lot of questioning obviously every single media outlets like what's
wrong with offense. Is it Scott linear and is it
everything is Dak press whatever and the priests have motion
and play action. The answer is kind of everything. Like
Amari Cooper, I went back and tracked all of his
(14:25):
routes and he ran great routes. He got great separation.
Amari Cooper is not the problem. Like maybe they gave
up too much for him. You couldn't have that debate.
But Amari Cooper showed us what they as potential. That's
not the That's not the question I'm seeking to answer
right now. I'm like, did he do what they expected?
Meaning it was he running the routes they were asking
and it did appear that that's way, So some positivity
(14:46):
that all right, Let's move on to the Giants at
forty nine. So we go from Sunday night football to
Monday night football. Uh, the number likes the forty Niners
and Nick Mullins by a field goal, and that's kind
of what you typically get when you get to play
at home. So maybe this is more of an even
game because that's again what you tend to get here. Yeah,
(15:07):
so look for me, this one is a it's a
forty Niners win. It's a it's twenty forty niners is
the most that's the most likely score in my model.
So sixty two point five percent of the simulations have
has San Francisco winning. So that's a pretty convincing number. Ultimately,
for me, the overwhelming thing in here is what I've
(15:29):
seen or haven't seen from the Giants defense. So being
able to read what the defense has planned for you,
being able to read the coverage is it man is
its own, Like they're giving Nick Mullen and Mullens an
opportunity to have it to read. I can't believe I'm
saying this about the Giants defense because like I think
about the Giants defense, and I think about when you know,
they had Michael Strahan and Othu and Eura and like
(15:51):
alf past and it's just not that defense. And it's
not like they don't have names. I mean, it's a
decent names production. No, that's the problem. And I think
a lot of it too, though, is that the offense
has been so bad. Um, so you gotta remember, I mean,
the defense can be a product of offensive ineptitude and
getting fatigued because and by the way, but there has
(16:11):
not had the coverages and the disguises. They haven't been
able to trick people into thinking, oh is it three
is It's like they have not been able to figure
that out. I think the one thing to remember here,
because it does seem like this is one where a
lot of people are piling on the Giants. I'm not
piling on him, I know, I'm just saying that in
this case. Remember, they beat up on a team that
(16:34):
looks to be historically bad. The second lasts not going
to look like that. There's no beat down here. I'm
not beating down on anyone. I'm I'm no beat down. No,
I'm just I'm saying advantage to Kyle Shanahan's ability to
scheme versus a very depleted Giants defense. Definitely, all right,
let's go to Panthers catch. We just went bang bang
(16:55):
bang primetime Now Football Panthers at Steelers. Cam Newton, you
can argue statistically enjoying the best season of his career
even ahead of that m v P campaign, especially in
terms of a passer uh the number Pittsburgh by four
at home short week, heinz Field, what do you like
Steelers to win? Sixty three point three percent of the
(17:16):
sims and the most likely scores twenty three, which is
five points, which is more than four points. Turns out
it is um. I think they're like, look, this one's
really interesting because as it was going through we do
like a Thursday night video, it comes out, it'll be like,
it's a one minute video. So it's it's actually a
pretty good one. So give us sixty seconds of your time.
(17:36):
That's what you're saying, exty seconds of your time, and
it's it's really interesting that the biggest reason that that
Steelers come out on top, it's Pittsburgh's ability to use
their elite pressure to stop Cam from picking up first
sounds on his feet. When you make it so that
Cam is in an obvious passing situation, then your pressure
has a has an advantage, right, So putting Cam in
(17:57):
obvious pressure situations are obvious passings. That rations is where
the Steelers defense gets an advantage. They've had, you know,
number five in total pressures, a hundred and one if
you're keeping track, you know, ultimately, ultimately their uptick in
their defense is something that doesn't match up to the
things that you know if you're if you're a Carolina fan,
it's something that stops Cam. So the things that the
Steelers defenses been able to really do better at lately
(18:20):
is something that they can they have, they could likely
have a plan to. And it's two teams that have
really good quarterbacks but really want to run the ball
um or and I guess it makes it unique because
it is you know, they would say kind of styles
make the fight. It's similar. Granted they don't have an
Antonio Brown and Cam is not the passer that Ben
rong n Funges is an Antonio Brown. Turns out he's not.
(18:40):
He's however, both of them played their college football in
the State of Michigan. Right off the top of the head.
When you go to a Central Michigan game, they fire
a cannon chips every time the Chipawa score, they fire
a kid. Is actually pretty terrifying because you're like, this
is a small stadium. What are you doing? You know
what you just heard? What a game of one ups
and ship That's what that was. Hopes that if there's
(19:03):
one thing that can win up you and it's Michigan trivia,
like the State of Michigan trivia, I should get you on.
I don't know, you only grew up there and spent
the majority of your life there. I think I think
I might have a puncher's chance. A a reminder if
you're listening to the and not really a reminder, just
us acknowledging your brilliance. H. If you listen to this podcast,
perhaps you find yourself as a Titan in business and
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How you want some? You want some trivia? C How
do you spell recruiter? Not how it's spelled in the
Google doc Are easy? Come on? Sounded re crew? You
(20:50):
are ECU? Are you I t e R? But that's wrong,
borns that's right, that's right, that's right, Okay, Zip recruiter
A spell I do met I slash. I remember it
was a word I struggled with. I was spelling champ
in fifth grade, never missed a word as a matter
of fact Mr Laylof's class. Uh, but recruiter was one
(21:12):
I struggled with, like some and uh. I still remember
my my little brain when I was in like kindergarten
and I still have a tiny brain. But I remember
Wednesday always gave me trouble. So I would go in
going wed as day and recruiters that way re crew
e tear so alright, the smartest way to higher that
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(21:34):
not my story about Mr Layloft and fifth grade at
Kenwood School on the south side of the Chicago Land area.
All right, we we now move on to where do
you want to go? You want to go to? Uh?
What do we do here, Cynthia? We like, we like puppies.
There you go. I figured i'd let you call for
the dog. I like like little puppies too, like little well,
puppies have to grow up. You can't give them back
(21:56):
after they're not puppies anymore, like some fancy folks in
Hollywood do. Okay, yeah, that's isn't that's bad? You're terrible people.
All right, the dogs, there we go. That's my kind
of dog. Stay away from my house, your solicitor, keep
your dumb book. There we go, Cardinals, Chiefs, what encyclopedias?
(22:17):
Isn't that what the people are selling door to door
these days? Cardinals, the chiefs Kansas City by sixteen and
a half sixteen and half zarohead. Let me be clear
when I say that I like the dog here, I
don't like Kansas City not to win this one. I
just think that that's a ridiculous difference. The Chiefs win.
In of the simulations, the most likely scores thirty one seventeen.
(22:40):
So that's fourteen points, which is huge for my model.
But it's not seventeen points, which is bigger. Yeah, I
think my My big problem with that is how bad
Kansas City's defense is. I mean, I get you can
find yourself, you can find yourself behind and you want
to play catch up in order to win the game,
and maybe with a rookie quarterback that leads to some
(23:01):
turnovers um, and that's how you get to that that
I guess that outcome. But the Kansas City defense is
not good. And when you have a talented running back
like David Johnson, you can keep this game. I think
a lot closer than some people think when you just
look at it on paper. Okay, it's the two and
six Cardinals with a rookie quarterback they have not been
(23:21):
good this season, and a Kansas City Chiefs offensive machine
that no one's been able to slow down. It just
doesn't seem it's not confining. Ultimately, with a week off,
the Cardinals had a chance to so went back and
watched what they did and obviously, look, you have a
new play caller, the offense is going to change, you
have to go back in history to find like what
(23:42):
does Byron left with, what's he likely to do? So Ultimately,
the reason that they keep it relatively closer, closer than
potentially expected is from some new offensive looks and the
time to install them, in the time to learn with
the rookie quarterback against this defense. That's that's how they
keep it closer than expected. By the way, if if
U is the magic number, I think it. I think
(24:02):
overwhelmingly under that magic number. Really, that's something that just
them Redskins and Buccaneers. By the way, two in battled
teams coming off losses three one points is still a
lot for the for the Chiefs not disagree with. It's
(24:24):
like it goes back to my point that I just
think their defense is so bad that I could see
a team hanging you. Alright, Redskins and Buccaneers number Tampa
by three. Again, you get that field goal at home,
So this one tight according to those folks. Yeah, So
model really just has the Bucks in the same So
it's not the most that's not the most convincing win
(24:46):
in the model. Ultimately, for me um it comes this
one comes down to the fact that we've got a
lot of injuries on Washington's old line is very banged up.
It is the score the most likely scores twenty four,
So I might, you know, air on the side of
Washington getting things back on track in this one. Um,
(25:09):
I think it's lower scoring than what are they down
three fifths of their line now? I think I think
it's yeah, three three starters gone. It's crazy. I mean,
although I guess this is perhaps the elicture that you
would need because it's the well defensive front they're They're
down a bunch of players too, so it's kind of
like your weakness versus our weakness, who's secondary weakness and
(25:31):
strongers like who's playing. So it's to me, I'm not
as afraid. A lot of fantasy people have been saying
not to play Adrian Peterson this week because of that,
and I agree going forward that Adrian Peterson will be
downgraded because of this old line. But I think in
this game, Adrian Peterson might be the way that they
kind of run this offense and keep things manageable. So
(25:51):
if the Redskins are too upset the Bucks, which again
of the time, the Bucks win, So this is very likely. Right,
it's not one that it's a coin for. Essentially, Um,
they're gonna It's gonna be because Adrian Peterson gives them
that stability and those those yards and creates more manageable
third downs. All right, Falcons at Brown's I heard you
heard what I heard. Greg Williams was offered the win.
(26:14):
He wasn't even going to have to play the game,
but he turned it down because he said, I want
I want my team to earn it. So yes, apparently
the NFL said, hey, we'll just give you the win.
Do you want it? He said no, So they're gonna
play the game. I hear somebody wrote him a letter
to do that and they delivered it with a carrier piget.
That's exactly right, right. There was no there, no emails,
there calls to Atlanta. Favor Atlanta by four is the number. Yes, Um,
(26:42):
I have the Falcons winning in almost six the simulations.
The Falcons win most likely in my model, so that's
only three points. Here's the Here's some of the things
that you need to watch as this week develops. If
Matt Brian is back, that could shift things more in
the falcons favor. If you know there's like keeping Dion
(27:05):
Jones was allegedly practicing on the word on the street.
So keep an eye on this one because this is
one where I think the Falcons could solidify that win
and win by more points than you know than three
is what currently is the most likely score. But this
one could absolutely shift quickly. So that's that's something that's
(27:26):
that's I'm not going to like riding the hot hand,
and I know there's no math behind that, there's no
tremendous analysis, but it seems as though the Falcons have
figured out how to navigate all of their defensive injuries.
The offense has been running. You're navigating your injuries and
then you get pieces back that are better than you know,
helpful to you then great. So again, keep an eye
on this one. But again, it's funny about the Browns
(27:47):
because they keep it close in every single game. They're
not out of it. They're very close. They have got
great pieces. It's just those pieces haven't figured out how
to all work together to complement each other. Yet they're
banged up in their corners. They're banged like, so that's
that's kind of a that's a problem. But apart from that,
I do think that they find a way to keep
it close in this game. But again, if if the
Falcons get any healthier, read the injury report, If they
(28:09):
get any healthier, bigger Falcons wan I think. I mean,
we know what Greg Williams likes to do. He has
a lot of g's in his name. That's that's exactly
thanks to write the letter g he Greg he Um.
His defenders are coming up field, and Matt Ryan is
too savvy a quarterback not to take graduate. That's right. Um,
(28:30):
So you're gonna probably see a lot of quick passing
and a lot of yak and a lot of Calvin
Ridley Julio Jones getting the ball with maybe six seven
air yards in those passes going for style yards. Not
to mention, Tevin Coleman has been fantastic after the injury
to Freeman. Uh, I said his name wrong. DeVante. There
we go, not Deante DeVante Freeman. All right, let's move
(28:51):
on to the Dolphins. He's gonna play exactly right Friday. Thing.
You know, Dolphins at Packers, This one's crazy. They say
the Packers should win by ten, that's what they say.
What do you say? So the Packers win in seventy
one of the simulations, the most likely scores only seven
Green Bay twenty eight, Miami twenty one. Why you ask why, Well,
(29:14):
the Packers are very very thin linebacker, so they're linebackers
are and and perhaps Blake Martinez isn't playing, who by
the way, fifty he's great and if he's not playing,
that's a big deal in the middle of the fields,
a big deal. So when that happens, you have to
play safety. So safeties have to take on those linebacker roles.
You play more nickel. That's the situation where the Dolphins
(29:35):
could have success with these like crazy wacky short passes
that they've been throwing. You see the Kenyan Drake stuff.
You've seen the Jachem Grant tricks. So those tricks help
keep them closer with those light linebacker you know, the
lack of depth and the injuries on their linebacking course,
so it's like, let's just hope that defensive front can
(29:55):
can take care of the Dolphins a line which, by
the way, they were down two starting tackles at one
point during last game. And I don't know what the
total health is because they're all listed on the injury report,
but we haven't seen any complete status here. But but ultimately,
if those tackles play, the Dolphins keep it closer than
tens an aggressive number. Not for me, not for you, No,
(30:18):
I mean it's a it's an offense that had four turnovers,
including to pick six, and scored thirteen points against the Jets.
So if that's all your offense can muster. But if
you if you're down two tackles, you just saying you're
taken on Aaron Rodgers, and I have zero faith in
your offense. If you forced four interceptions, including to pick six,
(30:40):
and you scored thirteen points, that's you're not winning at
Green Bay with Aaron Rodgers coming off too great losses,
I'm talking about winning, you know. That's I think there's
a big I'm going too touchdown used the Packers in
five or this might be your week. There you go,
uh Seahawks at Rams And by the way, a little
game theory on game day morning on this on a
big show is what do we got? Okay? Rams win
(31:04):
in sixty seven the simulations and the score thirty by
not as much as they think the Ram should. Some
think it's gonna be ten. But that's not me. I
don't think that, um, you're going tighter. Yeah. So it's
funny because both teams kind of they use play action
a lot. And it's funny because when you look to
(31:26):
see like why they're doing it, it's for different reasons, right.
It's for one is to make use of number thirty.
They make the best use of number thirty, so Todd Curley.
And the other is to evade pressure. So it's all
about how how they're constructing these wins. And you've got
to give a lot of credit to everyone in Pete
Carroll Stafford making that old line not look as bad
(31:47):
as it could. What I mean, what I'll say about
that old line is they can't pass protect. They just can't.
And and you could. You know the at the clink
last week, the crowd was not what the typical twelve
are because they were booing the offense because on third
and twelves they're running the ball or they're running quick
slants coming up seven yard short. Why because Russell Wilson's
(32:09):
getting crushed. If he's got to take he can't even
take a five step drop. So what I think, and
you mentioned crediting the staff, what that staff has done
is figured out nobody more than them that like, that's
what's happened, And that's the one thing they're not doing
that they need to do is use Russell Wilson's legs more.
(32:30):
I mean, that's that's the one thing they've got to
figure out how to incorporate. I'm gonna push back on
you again, Cynthia. I'm going I'm going Rams big, Rams
big in this one. Remember it happened last year. You
had one where Seattle knocked him off. The second one,
Rams beat him by like thirty I think, especially coming
off a loss, a lot of people starting to nitpick
at the Rams, and they should and their defense. But
(32:50):
but how have the Rams been victimized by elite quarterbacks
attacking them on the outside. And if Russell Wilson doesn't
have the time to attack on the outside because Aaron
Donald and Dante Fowler are going to be in his
lap by the time he gets to his fifth step,
this is just not a team that you can milk
the clock and use Chris Carson if he's gonna player,
Mike Davis or Rashad Penny ain't an app So the
(33:11):
one place that I'll push back on there in the
place why my model likes the fact that the Rams
have allowed the highest yards per rush against the shotgun.
That's how that's how the seat Seahawks run right at him,
So run right out of night. That's really just the
only way that keeps it, keeps it much closer. I
guess I like the emotional like I understand, like Sean
mcfigh doesn't lose in a row, like I get it,
he doesn't have back to I'm with you on all
(33:33):
of that. I'm just talking person thematically. Yeah, Like I mean,
as good as kJ Wright and Bobby Wagner are, is
as much of a liability that Barkadous Mingo and that
defensive line save Frank Clark, who's been great at getting
at that's the That's actually probably the most interesting matchup
here is Frank Clark, who is wildly underrated against Andrew Whitworth.
(33:54):
But what you're seeing too with that team is they're
moving him inside. He's taken on guards. I think that
they'd be smart to move him inside. I've been looking
a lot about that, and it's like, well, like concede
the Andrew Witworth's of the world. There aren't that many, right,
There's attack inside and go attack inside that you have
a much better chance being disruptive there. It'll be interesting
to watch that because Pete Carroll's that swarm style defense
(34:15):
is really really interesting. So I'm gonna be watching this
one to see ways to attack the rams in the post.
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Slash Game Theory. Let's go Lions at Bears? Do we
have to? We do? Uh? They like the Bears by
six and a half? Okay? Was that a belch? Was
(36:04):
that a lion? Was that a bear? I have no
idea what that is. But if you're going to talk
about the bears, they have a great fight. I think
it was a bear because I think it was a lion.
What do you think it was? I don't know. I
have no idea. I don't know all right. Well, look,
if you're going to talk about the Bears, then you
(36:25):
need to bring to Bear down in Chicago Bear song
because it's a it's a good song, or just play
ballue singing the Bear necessities. How about that exactly way
to do it. Get some jazz in this thing, alright.
Bears overwhelming win sixty eight point four percent of the simulations.
Although the cold blah blah blah. Here's what I'm gonna
tell you, Bears win most likely, which that's not as
(36:47):
that's not a full touchdown, is a little less than
a touchdown. Part of the reason why. But look here,
here's here's what comes out Mack. If Khalil Mack is playing,
which it looks like he's going to, we don't know
for sure, but if he is, then that number will
get a lot bigger. Okay, So whatever that noise was
should be your indication to check if Khalil Mack is playing.
It sounded like the collective groans. It sounds like the
(37:09):
groans of the state of Michigan that once we started
celebrating the lions, they let you down yet again. I
never celebrate them. They're just want to though you want to,
I do sit up to stop slouching, Um stop, I
have some respect. All right, we've done. We've done money.
Put your tummy back out windbreaker exactly. Bills at Jets.
(37:31):
Did we cover everything? By the way? He good? There? Alright, Matthew,
it was a bad It was a bad way. It
just really got him. You usually can handle it. But
I have a feeling this one's going to be fast.
Bills at Jets. Josh mccow No, Sam Donald, he's hurt
Jets by seven and a half. What do you got
it's such a weird number. Jets win in sixty eight
(37:53):
of the simulations, most likely scored twenty seventeen. What okay,
stay away, I got nothing, Just go away. I like McCown.
He's he's actually a very good He won them games
last easier. That kind of screwed them in terms of
where they were drafting, so they had to like make
some trades to get their quarterback, which is kind of ironic, right,
(38:13):
And then now he's he's good. He does not turn
the ball over. I think that's gonna be a very
boring game, and the boring in the sense of not
a ton of scoring. Like I like, both teams don't don't.
All right, let's go to UH Jaguars at colts A
f C South in Indianapolis, Indianapolis by three d You
like it? Do you not like it? What? Do you
(38:34):
got ready for it? Jast seven point seven, So the
simulations most likely scored three. This is a high number. Okay,
what here's here's the reason why. If Leonard Fournette plays,
so they've had a week off. If Leonard Fournette plays
(38:56):
a lot, changes, if he doesn't play a lot, change
just so. Ultimately, so you want to keep an eye
on the injury You want to keep an eye on
the injury report on this one. The run game is
going to be the key to everything. The Jags don't change,
they can't come from behind, they can't seem to slow
people down once they've lost the lead or the tie, right,
So they're gonna need to create that stability through the
(39:17):
run game. That's a huge one in this one, especially
considering you know, like, look, here's here's my love for
Andrew Luck. Andrew Luck only ten sacks in eight games
and it's the lowest sack average in the league. So
they had to buy last week. The old line has
been great, there's been awesome and it was the greatest liability.
Let's credit Andrew Luck a bit with this with decision
making because he's avoided sacks in situations too. But the
(39:41):
past three games that they played zero sacks, So that's
that's very against this defense. That's unlikely to happen. Now
the a sack should happen that that seems like and
a good running game has helped him. I mean, Marlon
Macks been great. Absolutely, that's been a big boon as well.
Do you want to do playoff percentages or do you
want to do confidence? What would you prefer? Right now,
(40:02):
it's your adventure, you choose. So first I'm going to
get how about I give you like five people who
are to score touchdown and then we can do whatever
you want as long as it's compelling. If I don't
care if these people score touchdown, then then I don't care.
What do you like that? How do you like that?
Push back? Because you tell me Antonio Brown is going
to score touched and I'm gonna say, yeah, he tell
you something. You tell me Kareem Hunt's gonna score tough?
Who do you got? No, I'm gonna tell you something.
(40:23):
Let's go to score the touchdown. What do we got,
mark Ingram? You don't think that's not impressed? Not impressed?
Who else? Come on? That's right, cat calls from the crowd.
Who else you got? Who else you got? Um? Okay, fine,
I'll go deeper than that. Let's go with tight ends,
because you know what we got that one rape. Let's see,
it depends what tight end. I want to be impressed, Cynthia.
(40:43):
Who do you got? I'm gonna go with your guy,
Antonio Gates. Okay, that's interesting. He hasn't I think he's
got one touchdown this year, So that's interesting. Okay, And
that that's I think that's There's there's two okay, else
there's two, but only one that you like. So I
wanted to figure out which l A Ram wide receiver
to pick, because you want all of them. Find Robert
(41:04):
Woods is the best one to find an impressed, impressed
not impressed? You are the word. I am the worst.
I want to look. You want to give me touchdowns.
I want touch I want to be impressed. Who else
you got? Like? I want John Ross, I want Adam Humphreeze, Well,
Tyler boy I want Tyler Boyd. Of course he's gonna
score a touchdown. He's Tyler Boyd said he was your
number one receiver on Fantasy Live for the remainder of
(41:26):
the season, and so far that's bold prediction. Has has
been awfully smart. Okay. De Sean Jackson, Okay, that's interesting.
He's been in battled complaining a little bit. Kenny Golladay, Okay,
I like that as well, especially against a Chicago Bears
defense that has been awfully stingy see, that's good stuff. Alright. Well, finally, cheez,
we're getting a little And by the way, I think
(41:47):
Nick Chubb is huge, has a huge has a huge
Fantasy day. Okay, So there we go. That I can take.
And I also told you, Peter said earlier, so are
those confidence picks or those touchdowns? Those are just touched? Okay,
who's on the confidence picks? The confidence pick? All right?
So I already told you that I liked it there
to be more scoring and Sunday night in Philadelphia than
we thought. Okay, that's one. I think that your l
(42:10):
a c your charges. I think that they're big, huge,
monstrous win something to absolutely think about and a lot
like think about it. Let's do we need one more one? More,
let's go with one's a little sneakers because like it's
not you know, I want to keep it spicy for you.
That's what we like. I like spicy foods. I put
(42:30):
tapatio on my eggs. What do you got what? And
Frank's red hot? I love Frank's. I like the tappato better.
See I'm a French guy. Okay? Is it is it
spicy to say that New Orleans is going to win
by a lot. Of course they're gonna win by about Jacksonville. Fine,
I'll be. I'll be confidently because everybody else thinks it's fine.
That's confidence. Al right, win for the Jacks. All right,
(42:52):
Here we go now quickly to run through the playoff
percentages because we are just in week ten, so these
are fluid and they tend to change dramatically weekend change
rams and saints there so, but what's below them is
awfully interesting because you've got a third place team in
their division in the number four slots. So let's go.
(43:13):
Let's go with the NFC North champion according to your
model is go pack go yep, But look at their
remains all about remaining schedule they have in their mini
schedule They're favored in every game except for a coin
flip game against Minnesota. In Minnesota, they have four remaining
games where they're over favorites. In my way, that's why
(43:36):
they make it. So come at me, Come at me,
Minnesota fans. And by the way, Eagles, they're they're in
the number three spots. So it goes Ram Saints, Eagles, Packers, Panthers,
Bears right now and Panthers Panthers. Even if they do
not win on Thursday night, they will still be in
the playoffs. They have the best remaining schedule of these
kind of board. These fringe Viking fans are gonna be
(43:56):
pissed skull. They lead the NFC North right now and
you have them out of the postseason, or at least
you know this one. This one there right now, number seven,
This one's gonna come down to their meeting with the Bears.
Like they have a few, it could easily sway either
direction in this one. The Bears just have the benefit
of playing a easier schedule overall. They're playing that fourth
(44:18):
place schedule and the Vikings are not. They're playing a
first place schedule this season. So Vikings fans, you could
be mad because last year you were so good. That's
why I take it. Uh, let's go to the a
f C and what we have for our playoff percentages. Chiefs,
Patsy Boring, boring Um. Texans are number three, and by
(44:39):
the way, there's so Chiefs and Pats are both over Texans.
Steelers next they're around sixty two and sixty so that's
that's kind of interesting. And then the Chargers at number five,
they're actually sixty four percent. That's really high for a
fifth place team at this point in the season. And
then right now it's the Ravens. But honestly, between the Ravens, Bengals, Jags,
(45:03):
and Colts, this Jags, it's very tight. The Colts have
a big, big drop off as of right now. So
the Jags are, the Colts are, but this head to
head matchup will do a lot to shift that. My
the the whole thing here, the whole The Dolphins are next,
(45:23):
by the way, then, and if the Dolphins managed to
beat the Packers, they'll put themselves way into contingent two,
which is strange, but it's kind of weird how low
the Titans are. And and my whole thing watching this
is if the because the Titans have a pretty hard schedule.
They're playing the Patriots this week obviously, and they're not
slated to win that game. If somehow they win that game,
the Titans can play spoiler for the Jags. And I
(45:45):
think it's important to point out, as you said, the
Bengals and Ravens are separated by two tents of a
point and they have head to heads coming. So however
those play out is how that's going to exactly. All right?
That is uh. That is our Week ten game theory
and money. Again, a big thank you to those of
you download, streaming, listening, sharing on social media. Will be
back again next week see if Cynthia can put together
(46:05):
another dominant week. She has had a few so far
this season where it has been really lopsided in your
favor against the number. So we'll be back next week
to recap and remember to follow her on Twitter for
all updates based on injury reports. If you want to
put your picks in, you can do that on my
Twitter too. You can. There's a there you go. That's right,
you do encourage them, yeah, you go, you can do it.
(46:27):
Go against the math ways all right, Thanks for down
looking straight and listen and we'll be back again. And
I don't know what that is um and we'll maybe
figure it out. I have no idea what that is. Yeah,
we'll have to find out for Sean shop. Big thank
you to Sean and also Mark Brady and everybody affiliated
with the podcast that I've forgotten to it. Yes, Pill
shares the same last name for me to thank you.
Bill is your son, Uh, not my son, it's my father.
(46:50):
It's very odd the way that worked out. Medical miracle.
All right, we'll be back again next week
Welcome to Game Theory and Money for Week ten hands
we make our way just past the halfway point of
the n f l C sent I'm here with Cynthia Freeland,
Matt money Smith, and our math magician runs ten thousand
simulations on every game. Thanks to her fancy model that
predicts how these games are gonna play out with exact
point totals, you'll know who wins, how much they win
(00:22):
by in what the character of the game looks like.
In a big thank you to all of you who
have downloaded, subscribed, listen, shared on social media, we certainly
appreciate it. And as we work our way into this
point of the season, Cynthia, we do have playoff percentages
that get updated, so you're also projecting what the postseason
is gonna look like based on all the information you
(00:42):
have through eight or nine games. And news flash, sorry Money,
you're gonna be working in January. You thought you'd maybe
potentially be able to, you know, start getting like only
like seven jobs instead of twenty. Still gonna be with
as uh. The Chargers finished the first half of the
season six and two. Uh, and you look at the
best cap for the schedule. I had kind of figured,
and I'm okay with that. You know them all right,
(01:03):
calling games for a team that is going to get
into the tournament. All right, give us a quick pick.
Let's get started, Cynthia. Okay, So in Lincoln Financial Field,
so you have to know where that is. We're not
gonna we're not gonna give it away. We'll give it
away later. But there's going to be more points scored
there than you might think. In fact, that meeting between
the two teams that are playing there is the second
lowest projected point total for the season, not for the season,
(01:26):
for the week, and I think that that gets obliterated. Okay,
way more points there. Points at the link. It seems like, uh,
points are a little bit easier to come by in
the NFL these days. So teams that historically have been
models of defensive prowess are getting blown off the field.
And it has been a point plethora all season long.
(01:48):
And I will say just quickly before we start and
recap last week the link and then you go there
you go, and then you got the clink, So east
coast link, West coast clink. Alright, recap Week nine straight
up ten and three against the number six and seven
you are one for three on your confidence picks and
(02:09):
that puts you at sixteen and um the season when
it comes to your confidence bigs. All right, so are
we ready? Week ten Freeland's favorite games that you are
in step with the number. We start with the Saints
coming off a huge victory. Mercury. Morris pops the champagne
(02:29):
because the Rams will not be perfect and that's right,
queue up the brass and the Saints get the victory. Ville.
Let's see, we got the Saints by four and a
half up in Cincinnati. And you know what's great about
this one? Who that versus whody? This is a whod
(02:49):
that hood a bowl so and it's very confusing because
the Bengals are hashtag seize the day. So that's I'm
just like, that's why, because they're the who days so
sees the day and they do they do. That's how
you get the little fancy thing on the you know,
with a little low, a little the little East rank
that you get from that. There you go, So what
(03:10):
do you got? Okay? So I have the Saints winning
outright in se of the models the most likely score
twenty nine twenty two. So that's by you know, a
touchdown in this one, which is more than the four
and a half points. Um, I do have a lower
scoring total. It's you know, twenty nine and twenty two
is less than fifty four, so that's it seems kind
(03:32):
of crazy because we saw an offense offensive explosion, and
both of these teams are really good at offense. But
the main thing here is really the Saints big play
ability and the passing game, and really the fact that
the Bengals on defense are very susceptible, especially to passing.
I'm not so much concerned that they have the lowest
total defensive ranking in terms of yours, but I am care.
(03:55):
I do care a lot about third down and they're
fifty point nine percent does rank course, so that's really
the biggest difference. I think I speak for everyone when
I asked how many touchdowns for Dez Bryant, that's what
I want to three this week, this week? Four Does
he play this week? I don't even know. I think
the answer this week is zero. And I think next
week we see him on the field and I think
(04:16):
he gets a touchdown. Okay, so we're going way into
the future, but I don't think he plays this week,
all right, let's go to the Pats at the Titans.
Pats coming off a thrashing of the Packers was supposed
to be a Brady v. Rogers showdown. It really wasn't.
And even quarterback played. Also, they don't play each other.
I used to hate it with Peyton Manning too. They
don't play each they don't. And obviously it's not fair
(04:37):
to compare one who's playing against probably either a better
coaching staff for a better staff defense whatever, maybe McCarthy,
but um, but I don't like him. It's just that
it's hard to say, hey, you've got a coaching advantage
when Bill Belichick is the guy standing on the other sideline,
and this one the Patriots win. In se of the simulations,
the most likely score comes out to t That is
(05:00):
more than six and a half, but barely by the
absolute slimmist that Away from that, how the Titans are
interesting just because of their their time of possession. Uh.
They are the ultimate checkdown offense and they milk a
ton of clock. But I like the pay it's a
little bigger here just because they tend to come up
(05:22):
with the big play the and it's sort of similar
to what we saw with the Chargers, where you have
the Titans just danking and dunk in the entire way
down and they're settling for field goals and outcomes Philip
Rivers and it's a one play touchdown drive and it's
a three play touchdown drive. And I know, ultimately that
Titans team you could argue should have got out with
the win. They had a chance to do it in
(05:42):
that two point conversion. And I think that's why a
lot of people view this as a team that can't
keep it close. But it just doesn't look like an
offense that's gonna be able to keep up with something
like what the Patriots have going right now on that
side of the ball. I think where the Titans will
ultimately end up this season is nowhere near how good
that they can be. And next week, next week, next season,
what we'll see from them. But really, in this game,
it comes out of the Titans offense. We're, like you
(06:04):
talked about not being able to kind of outpaced Tom
Brady and their ability on offense. Between again Malcolm Butler
and a hobbled Kenny of the car I just think
Tom Brady carves him up in that secondary. All right,
let's go to speaking of the Chargers. Chargers at the Raiders.
The Raiders continue to fall apart, and just because they're
losing pieces. They traded their defensive captain away before the
(06:24):
season started. Then they waived their second defensive captain and
Bruce Irvin. Uh, they have an offensive line that might
be the worst in the league. It's a big number
the Chargers on the road. Uh. And this is you know,
the big rivalry Northern California Southern California Bolts v. Raiders,
And uh, it's the Chargers by ten, which is a
(06:46):
big number. But at the same time, I think much
like Aaron Rodgers embraces that rivalry, rivalry with the backers
saying it trying to say rivalry week I gotta do.
It's just man, whenever I see in U c. L
A tangled or anyway, Uh, don't get it twisted. Rivers
wants to put it on the Raiders every time they play.
He wants to throw seven touchdowns and beat him fifty
(07:08):
to nothing. So if you think this is going to
be one of those games where uh, they'll go up
a couple of scores and then maybe just cruise Divic three,
now that that's not how that man operates he's looking
to humiliate this team. It's funny that you say fifty,
because I think that the that that's kind of where
the magic number is in this one, and I think
they stay under that, but I think they win by
more than ten. So have the Charges winning in almost
(07:29):
of the simulations, the most likely score thirty one nineteen.
That nineteen is generous, and that's that's a very generous nineteen, because,
to be honest with you, it's very hard for a
model to predict something in the single digits. We only
saw a couple of times just in general last season.
This season, you'd rarely see that, Like, but I think
it could be even bigger than that for my model
to predict thirty one to nineteen. You you're pretty familiar
(07:52):
with it. This is that's that's really that's a very
strong indication of the charges ability not only to win,
but also to to win significantly. So I don't necessarily
think that that is a high score. I think that's
a pretty decently a low score. But I think you said,
like two weeks ago, we're like, yeah, because it's a
lot easier to beat someone forty seven nothing to beat
that someone fifty nothing. Sad. It's it's kind of the
(08:14):
same thing, just real quick. One of the things that
I would point out, and I wish I had the
stant in front of me, but I got it in
the uh my prep for the game coming up this week.
Right now, Derek Carr is being sacked at a higher
rate than David was the year he got absolutely wrecked
as a rookie for the Houston Texans. It's not over
the course of the whole season. It was a recent
(08:35):
stat but I think it it paints that picture because
we heard, well, who knows what David Carr's career could
have been had he not been, you know, shell shocked
by all of the incoming he took that rookie season.
And because this offensive line is so bad and so leaky,
and that was one of their strengths. I mean, when
you talk about the interior that line with Jackson and
Hudson and assemble, it just hasn't been there because their
(08:57):
tackles have been such a liability. And that's you know
that teams aren't even rushing against their tackles anymore. They're
not even bothering to it's they're not even They're just
totally like you know what, I'll just come on the inside.
We're good. They're not even bringing perimeter pressure at a
rate that that really matters. It's it's kind of they're
just kind of like, well, it's I think it's clear.
(09:18):
I think it's clear what what kind of the Raiders
have been doing? And that's so went to long term
play is the got a piece of trivia? Um, So
obviously last time they met was my favorite piece of
sound from this whole Yes, Philips a defense. Huh. The
Chargers did push back on that and say that he
(09:39):
was not and of course I guess they would write
that he was not insulting the Raiders, but was pointing
it out to his teammate of sht it. Yeah, that's
exactly what. So alright, so here's my trivia for you.
This is a fun fact, fair friends. Okay, So Oakland
obviously last in NFL pressure rate in terms of total
pressures that odds up to thirty five. There are one, two, three,
(10:04):
four more for defensive ends, individuals, individuals individual defensive players
that have more quarterback pressures in the Raiders. All right,
I'll give you Myles Garrett, and I'll give you Aaron
Donald two or the other two. I mean, I'm looking
at it. Okay, good old g suite by Google. Unfortunately,
you can't you can't fool me with the trivia. I
can't play your reindeer games here, Cynthia, but go ahead
share with the folks else. I thought one was going
(10:25):
to be Khalil Mack's not he's been out about DeFord. Okay,
welcome to Kansas City. And Jerry Hughes, Yeah, I would
imagine just again bias and people are tired of hearing
if then Melvin Ingram's gotta be pretty close up there.
He's close. But but as a whole team, well, what
it turns out when you trade Khalil Mack and then
wave Bruce. So we were trading one of the best
(10:47):
pass rushers in the NFL before the season starts, and
then we're gonna wave the best pass rusher remaining on
our team. Okay, that's kind of why those numbers bear outings.
What's that critics are That's right, Janet, Critics are going
to beat critics, all right, Okay, all right, so let's
get to the Cowboys at Eagles Saturday night football. I
(11:08):
do believe that is the link. It is the link.
Lincoln Financial Field. We gave away that there's going to
be a higher scoring affair than we originally thought. However,
Eagles win in almost of the simulations. The score. There
you go. I like the screech of an eagle. I
went to Boston College. We had an eagle that screamed
like that every time we scored. And I always got
it confused with St. Joe's because the St. Joe's mascot,
(11:30):
see where all these Catholics to flap its wings the
entire game. That's like the trick. Yes, you gotta have
monster tries and shoulders to be St. Joe's mascot. Boston
College does not Baldwin. That's our eagle. He didn't need
to know. Baldwin just cruises, let's go on his head
quite often to do this like kind of like headstand.
But just think about that, I mean, just constantly flapping
your guy right, well or way better patrol man, you know,
(11:54):
way better Catholics than us. All right, what have we
got so? Right now? The number is Philadelphia by just
under a touchdown six and a half. You have a
score of eighteen most likely Eagles a ton and there,
and it's actually pretty convincing that they are win by
at least a touchdown until fifty eight percent of the
time thereby a touchdown. Why because their third down is increasing,
so the things that they need to do when to
(12:14):
win games, like in this kind of a misleading stat
so and in their wins they're they're converting on third
down at the time. In their losses at the time,
it's really the net difference of that spread, so that
that you're seeing there maybe in losses most most teams,
it's like fift ten percent. That's bigger than than what's
what's kind of a normal third down erosion when you
(12:37):
lose games and win games. But they're closing that gap
and getting Golden Tate, who's great on third down, and
it's yards after they catch on third down. That makes
a huge difference, especially since news flash, maybe not Shawn Lee.
Sadly every year a great player unfortunately just cannot seem
to stay healthy. I know there's there's no athleticism between
(12:58):
the lines attached to it, but the Cowboys just seemed
to be unraveling. When you've got Troy Aikman going on
Dallas shows saying that they need wholesale changes from the
top down to some degree questioning their coach. You wonder
if any of those players the coach. So, I mean,
well he kind of almost backed off Garrett and was
like it's it's not necessarily on him. I mean you could.
(13:20):
This is not a new thing when it comes to coaches.
I mean they've won. Like the stat with the Cowboys
is crazy. They have won three three playoff games since
they were last a dominant dynasty dynastic power in the nineties.
So I got the word dynastic, and I think everybody there.
So since nineteen I mean you're talking about twenty three years,
(13:43):
they have won three playoff games. And when I was
a mere elementary school students, I was ninety five. I
graduated college. About that, I guess that's true. I graduated. Yeah, sure,
I'm an old man. All right. So you have the
Eagles winning by eight, and is when we see the
(14:04):
Eagles really start to pull in Golden Tate. Yeah, you
have the opportunity to have to by week to kind
of gets settled in. Yeah, and and then I do
want to talk about you know, we talk there's a
lot of questioning obviously every single media outlets like what's
wrong with offense. Is it Scott linear and is it
everything is Dak press whatever and the priests have motion
and play action. The answer is kind of everything. Like
Amari Cooper, I went back and tracked all of his
(14:25):
routes and he ran great routes. He got great separation.
Amari Cooper is not the problem. Like maybe they gave
up too much for him. You couldn't have that debate.
But Amari Cooper showed us what they as potential. That's
not the That's not the question I'm seeking to answer
right now. I'm like, did he do what they expected?
Meaning it was he running the routes they were asking
and it did appear that that's way, So some positivity
(14:46):
that all right, Let's move on to the Giants at
forty nine. So we go from Sunday night football to
Monday night football. Uh, the number likes the forty Niners
and Nick Mullins by a field goal, and that's kind
of what you typically get when you get to play
at home. So maybe this is more of an even
game because that's again what you tend to get here. Yeah,
(15:07):
so look for me, this one is a it's a
forty Niners win. It's a it's twenty forty niners is
the most that's the most likely score in my model.
So sixty two point five percent of the simulations have
has San Francisco winning. So that's a pretty convincing number. Ultimately,
for me, the overwhelming thing in here is what I've
(15:29):
seen or haven't seen from the Giants defense. So being
able to read what the defense has planned for you,
being able to read the coverage is it man is
its own, Like they're giving Nick Mullen and Mullens an
opportunity to have it to read. I can't believe I'm
saying this about the Giants defense because like I think
about the Giants defense, and I think about when you know,
they had Michael Strahan and Othu and Eura and like
(15:51):
alf past and it's just not that defense. And it's
not like they don't have names. I mean, it's a
decent names production. No, that's the problem. And I think
a lot of it too, though, is that the offense
has been so bad. Um, so you gotta remember, I mean,
the defense can be a product of offensive ineptitude and
getting fatigued because and by the way, but there has
(16:11):
not had the coverages and the disguises. They haven't been
able to trick people into thinking, oh is it three
is It's like they have not been able to figure
that out. I think the one thing to remember here,
because it does seem like this is one where a
lot of people are piling on the Giants. I'm not
piling on him, I know, I'm just saying that in
this case. Remember, they beat up on a team that
(16:34):
looks to be historically bad. The second lasts not going
to look like that. There's no beat down here. I'm
not beating down on anyone. I'm I'm no beat down. No,
I'm just I'm saying advantage to Kyle Shanahan's ability to
scheme versus a very depleted Giants defense. Definitely, all right,
let's go to Panthers catch. We just went bang bang
(16:55):
bang primetime Now Football Panthers at Steelers. Cam Newton, you
can argue statistically enjoying the best season of his career
even ahead of that m v P campaign, especially in
terms of a passer uh the number Pittsburgh by four
at home short week, heinz Field, what do you like
Steelers to win? Sixty three point three percent of the
(17:16):
sims and the most likely scores twenty three, which is
five points, which is more than four points. Turns out
it is um. I think they're like, look, this one's
really interesting because as it was going through we do
like a Thursday night video, it comes out, it'll be like,
it's a one minute video. So it's it's actually a
pretty good one. So give us sixty seconds of your time.
(17:36):
That's what you're saying, exty seconds of your time, and
it's it's really interesting that the biggest reason that that
Steelers come out on top, it's Pittsburgh's ability to use
their elite pressure to stop Cam from picking up first
sounds on his feet. When you make it so that
Cam is in an obvious passing situation, then your pressure
has a has an advantage, right, So putting Cam in
(17:57):
obvious pressure situations are obvious passings. That rations is where
the Steelers defense gets an advantage. They've had, you know,
number five in total pressures, a hundred and one if
you're keeping track, you know, ultimately, ultimately their uptick in
their defense is something that doesn't match up to the
things that you know if you're if you're a Carolina fan,
it's something that stops Cam. So the things that the
Steelers defenses been able to really do better at lately
(18:20):
is something that they can they have, they could likely
have a plan to. And it's two teams that have
really good quarterbacks but really want to run the ball
um or and I guess it makes it unique because
it is you know, they would say kind of styles
make the fight. It's similar. Granted they don't have an
Antonio Brown and Cam is not the passer that Ben
rong n Funges is an Antonio Brown. Turns out he's not.
(18:40):
He's however, both of them played their college football in
the State of Michigan. Right off the top of the head.
When you go to a Central Michigan game, they fire
a cannon chips every time the Chipawa score, they fire
a kid. Is actually pretty terrifying because you're like, this
is a small stadium. What are you doing? You know
what you just heard? What a game of one ups
and ship That's what that was. Hopes that if there's
(19:03):
one thing that can win up you and it's Michigan trivia,
like the State of Michigan trivia, I should get you on.
I don't know, you only grew up there and spent
the majority of your life there. I think I think
I might have a puncher's chance. A a reminder if
you're listening to the and not really a reminder, just
us acknowledging your brilliance. H. If you listen to this podcast,
perhaps you find yourself as a Titan in business and
(19:26):
we want to make sure you know all about zip
recruiter and making sure you get the right candidates to
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(19:46):
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(20:29):
com slash game theories. Zip recruiter dot com slash game theory.
How you want some? You want some trivia? C How
do you spell recruiter? Not how it's spelled in the
Google doc Are easy? Come on? Sounded re crew? You
(20:50):
are ECU? Are you I t e R? But that's wrong,
borns that's right, that's right, that's right, Okay, Zip recruiter
A spell I do met I slash. I remember it
was a word I struggled with. I was spelling champ
in fifth grade, never missed a word as a matter
of fact Mr Laylof's class. Uh, but recruiter was one
(21:12):
I struggled with, like some and uh. I still remember
my my little brain when I was in like kindergarten
and I still have a tiny brain. But I remember
Wednesday always gave me trouble. So I would go in
going wed as day and recruiters that way re crew
e tear so alright, the smartest way to higher that
was worthless let's get back to the games, not ZIP recruiters,
(21:34):
not my story about Mr Layloft and fifth grade at
Kenwood School on the south side of the Chicago Land area.
All right, we we now move on to where do
you want to go? You want to go to? Uh?
What do we do here, Cynthia? We like, we like puppies.
There you go. I figured i'd let you call for
the dog. I like like little puppies too, like little well,
puppies have to grow up. You can't give them back
(21:56):
after they're not puppies anymore, like some fancy folks in
Hollywood do. Okay, yeah, that's isn't that's bad? You're terrible people.
All right, the dogs, there we go. That's my kind
of dog. Stay away from my house, your solicitor, keep
your dumb book. There we go, Cardinals, Chiefs, what encyclopedias?
(22:17):
Isn't that what the people are selling door to door
these days? Cardinals, the chiefs Kansas City by sixteen and
a half sixteen and half zarohead. Let me be clear
when I say that I like the dog here, I
don't like Kansas City not to win this one. I
just think that that's a ridiculous difference. The Chiefs win.
In of the simulations, the most likely scores thirty one seventeen.
(22:40):
So that's fourteen points, which is huge for my model.
But it's not seventeen points, which is bigger. Yeah, I
think my My big problem with that is how bad
Kansas City's defense is. I mean, I get you can
find yourself, you can find yourself behind and you want
to play catch up in order to win the game,
and maybe with a rookie quarterback that leads to some
(23:01):
turnovers um, and that's how you get to that that
I guess that outcome. But the Kansas City defense is
not good. And when you have a talented running back
like David Johnson, you can keep this game. I think
a lot closer than some people think when you just
look at it on paper. Okay, it's the two and
six Cardinals with a rookie quarterback they have not been
(23:21):
good this season, and a Kansas City Chiefs offensive machine
that no one's been able to slow down. It just
doesn't seem it's not confining. Ultimately, with a week off,
the Cardinals had a chance to so went back and
watched what they did and obviously, look, you have a
new play caller, the offense is going to change, you
have to go back in history to find like what
(23:42):
does Byron left with, what's he likely to do? So Ultimately,
the reason that they keep it relatively closer, closer than
potentially expected is from some new offensive looks and the
time to install them, in the time to learn with
the rookie quarterback against this defense. That's that's how they
keep it closer than expected. By the way, if if
U is the magic number, I think it. I think
(24:02):
overwhelmingly under that magic number. Really, that's something that just
them Redskins and Buccaneers. By the way, two in battled
teams coming off losses three one points is still a
lot for the for the Chiefs not disagree with. It's
(24:24):
like it goes back to my point that I just
think their defense is so bad that I could see
a team hanging you. Alright, Redskins and Buccaneers number Tampa
by three. Again, you get that field goal at home,
So this one tight according to those folks. Yeah, So
model really just has the Bucks in the same So
it's not the most that's not the most convincing win
(24:46):
in the model. Ultimately, for me um it comes this
one comes down to the fact that we've got a
lot of injuries on Washington's old line is very banged up.
It is the score the most likely scores twenty four,
So I might, you know, air on the side of
Washington getting things back on track in this one. Um,
(25:09):
I think it's lower scoring than what are they down
three fifths of their line now? I think I think
it's yeah, three three starters gone. It's crazy. I mean,
although I guess this is perhaps the elicture that you
would need because it's the well defensive front they're They're
down a bunch of players too, so it's kind of
like your weakness versus our weakness, who's secondary weakness and
(25:31):
strongers like who's playing. So it's to me, I'm not
as afraid. A lot of fantasy people have been saying
not to play Adrian Peterson this week because of that,
and I agree going forward that Adrian Peterson will be
downgraded because of this old line. But I think in
this game, Adrian Peterson might be the way that they
kind of run this offense and keep things manageable. So
(25:51):
if the Redskins are too upset the Bucks, which again
of the time, the Bucks win, So this is very likely. Right,
it's not one that it's a coin for. Essentially, Um,
they're gonna It's gonna be because Adrian Peterson gives them
that stability and those those yards and creates more manageable
third downs. All right, Falcons at Brown's I heard you
heard what I heard. Greg Williams was offered the win.
(26:14):
He wasn't even going to have to play the game,
but he turned it down because he said, I want
I want my team to earn it. So yes, apparently
the NFL said, hey, we'll just give you the win.
Do you want it? He said no, So they're gonna
play the game. I hear somebody wrote him a letter
to do that and they delivered it with a carrier piget.
That's exactly right, right. There was no there, no emails,
there calls to Atlanta. Favor Atlanta by four is the number. Yes, Um,
(26:42):
I have the Falcons winning in almost six the simulations.
The Falcons win most likely in my model, so that's
only three points. Here's the Here's some of the things
that you need to watch as this week develops. If
Matt Brian is back, that could shift things more in
the falcons favor. If you know there's like keeping Dion
(27:05):
Jones was allegedly practicing on the word on the street.
So keep an eye on this one because this is
one where I think the Falcons could solidify that win
and win by more points than you know than three
is what currently is the most likely score. But this
one could absolutely shift quickly. So that's that's something that's
(27:26):
that's I'm not going to like riding the hot hand,
and I know there's no math behind that, there's no
tremendous analysis, but it seems as though the Falcons have
figured out how to navigate all of their defensive injuries.
The offense has been running. You're navigating your injuries and
then you get pieces back that are better than you know,
helpful to you then great. So again, keep an eye
on this one. But again, it's funny about the Browns
(27:47):
because they keep it close in every single game. They're
not out of it. They're very close. They have got
great pieces. It's just those pieces haven't figured out how
to all work together to complement each other. Yet they're
banged up in their corners. They're banged like, so that's
that's kind of a that's a problem. But apart from that,
I do think that they find a way to keep
it close in this game. But again, if if the
Falcons get any healthier, read the injury report, If they
(28:09):
get any healthier, bigger Falcons wan I think. I mean,
we know what Greg Williams likes to do. He has
a lot of g's in his name. That's that's exactly
thanks to write the letter g he Greg he Um.
His defenders are coming up field, and Matt Ryan is
too savvy a quarterback not to take graduate. That's right. Um,
(28:30):
So you're gonna probably see a lot of quick passing
and a lot of yak and a lot of Calvin
Ridley Julio Jones getting the ball with maybe six seven
air yards in those passes going for style yards. Not
to mention, Tevin Coleman has been fantastic after the injury
to Freeman. Uh, I said his name wrong. DeVante. There
we go, not Deante DeVante Freeman. All right, let's move
(28:51):
on to the Dolphins. He's gonna play exactly right Friday. Thing.
You know, Dolphins at Packers, This one's crazy. They say
the Packers should win by ten, that's what they say.
What do you say? So the Packers win in seventy
one of the simulations, the most likely scores only seven
Green Bay twenty eight, Miami twenty one. Why you ask why, Well,
(29:14):
the Packers are very very thin linebacker, so they're linebackers
are and and perhaps Blake Martinez isn't playing, who by
the way, fifty he's great and if he's not playing,
that's a big deal in the middle of the fields,
a big deal. So when that happens, you have to
play safety. So safeties have to take on those linebacker roles.
You play more nickel. That's the situation where the Dolphins
(29:35):
could have success with these like crazy wacky short passes
that they've been throwing. You see the Kenyan Drake stuff.
You've seen the Jachem Grant tricks. So those tricks help
keep them closer with those light linebacker you know, the
lack of depth and the injuries on their linebacking course,
so it's like, let's just hope that defensive front can
(29:55):
can take care of the Dolphins a line which, by
the way, they were down two starting tackles at one
point during last game. And I don't know what the
total health is because they're all listed on the injury report,
but we haven't seen any complete status here. But but ultimately,
if those tackles play, the Dolphins keep it closer than
tens an aggressive number. Not for me, not for you, No,
(30:18):
I mean it's a it's an offense that had four turnovers,
including to pick six, and scored thirteen points against the Jets.
So if that's all your offense can muster. But if
you if you're down two tackles, you just saying you're
taken on Aaron Rodgers, and I have zero faith in
your offense. If you forced four interceptions, including to pick six,
(30:40):
and you scored thirteen points, that's you're not winning at
Green Bay with Aaron Rodgers coming off too great losses,
I'm talking about winning, you know. That's I think there's
a big I'm going too touchdown used the Packers in
five or this might be your week. There you go,
uh Seahawks at Rams And by the way, a little
game theory on game day morning on this on a
big show is what do we got? Okay? Rams win
(31:04):
in sixty seven the simulations and the score thirty by
not as much as they think the Ram should. Some
think it's gonna be ten. But that's not me. I
don't think that, um, you're going tighter. Yeah. So it's
funny because both teams kind of they use play action
a lot. And it's funny because when you look to
(31:26):
see like why they're doing it, it's for different reasons, right.
It's for one is to make use of number thirty.
They make the best use of number thirty, so Todd Curley.
And the other is to evade pressure. So it's all
about how how they're constructing these wins. And you've got
to give a lot of credit to everyone in Pete
Carroll Stafford making that old line not look as bad
(31:47):
as it could. What I mean, what I'll say about
that old line is they can't pass protect. They just can't.
And and you could. You know the at the clink
last week, the crowd was not what the typical twelve
are because they were booing the offense because on third
and twelves they're running the ball or they're running quick
slants coming up seven yard short. Why because Russell Wilson's
(32:09):
getting crushed. If he's got to take he can't even
take a five step drop. So what I think, and
you mentioned crediting the staff, what that staff has done
is figured out nobody more than them that like, that's
what's happened, And that's the one thing they're not doing
that they need to do is use Russell Wilson's legs more.
(32:30):
I mean, that's that's the one thing they've got to
figure out how to incorporate. I'm gonna push back on
you again, Cynthia. I'm going I'm going Rams big, Rams
big in this one. Remember it happened last year. You
had one where Seattle knocked him off. The second one,
Rams beat him by like thirty I think, especially coming
off a loss, a lot of people starting to nitpick
at the Rams, and they should and their defense. But
(32:50):
but how have the Rams been victimized by elite quarterbacks
attacking them on the outside. And if Russell Wilson doesn't
have the time to attack on the outside because Aaron
Donald and Dante Fowler are going to be in his
lap by the time he gets to his fifth step,
this is just not a team that you can milk
the clock and use Chris Carson if he's gonna player,
Mike Davis or Rashad Penny ain't an app So the
(33:11):
one place that I'll push back on there in the
place why my model likes the fact that the Rams
have allowed the highest yards per rush against the shotgun.
That's how that's how the seat Seahawks run right at him,
So run right out of night. That's really just the
only way that keeps it, keeps it much closer. I
guess I like the emotional like I understand, like Sean
mcfigh doesn't lose in a row, like I get it,
he doesn't have back to I'm with you on all
(33:33):
of that. I'm just talking person thematically. Yeah, Like I mean,
as good as kJ Wright and Bobby Wagner are, is
as much of a liability that Barkadous Mingo and that
defensive line save Frank Clark, who's been great at getting
at that's the That's actually probably the most interesting matchup
here is Frank Clark, who is wildly underrated against Andrew Whitworth.
(33:54):
But what you're seeing too with that team is they're
moving him inside. He's taken on guards. I think that
they'd be smart to move him inside. I've been looking
a lot about that, and it's like, well, like concede
the Andrew Witworth's of the world. There aren't that many, right,
There's attack inside and go attack inside that you have
a much better chance being disruptive there. It'll be interesting
to watch that because Pete Carroll's that swarm style defense
(34:15):
is really really interesting. So I'm gonna be watching this
one to see ways to attack the rams in the post.
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Slash Game Theory. Let's go Lions at Bears? Do we
have to? We do? Uh? They like the Bears by
six and a half? Okay? Was that a belch? Was
(36:04):
that a lion? Was that a bear? I have no
idea what that is. But if you're going to talk
about the bears, they have a great fight. I think
it was a bear because I think it was a lion.
What do you think it was? I don't know. I
have no idea. I don't know all right. Well, look,
if you're going to talk about the Bears, then you
(36:25):
need to bring to Bear down in Chicago Bear song
because it's a it's a good song, or just play
ballue singing the Bear necessities. How about that exactly way
to do it. Get some jazz in this thing, alright.
Bears overwhelming win sixty eight point four percent of the simulations.
Although the cold blah blah blah. Here's what I'm gonna
tell you, Bears win most likely, which that's not as
(36:47):
that's not a full touchdown, is a little less than
a touchdown. Part of the reason why. But look here,
here's here's what comes out Mack. If Khalil Mack is playing,
which it looks like he's going to, we don't know
for sure, but if he is, then that number will
get a lot bigger. Okay, So whatever that noise was
should be your indication to check if Khalil Mack is playing.
It sounded like the collective groans. It sounds like the
(37:09):
groans of the state of Michigan that once we started
celebrating the lions, they let you down yet again. I
never celebrate them. They're just want to though you want to,
I do sit up to stop slouching, Um stop, I
have some respect. All right, we've done. We've done money.
Put your tummy back out windbreaker exactly. Bills at Jets.
(37:31):
Did we cover everything? By the way? He good? There? Alright, Matthew,
it was a bad It was a bad way. It
just really got him. You usually can handle it. But
I have a feeling this one's going to be fast.
Bills at Jets. Josh mccow No, Sam Donald, he's hurt
Jets by seven and a half. What do you got
it's such a weird number. Jets win in sixty eight
(37:53):
of the simulations, most likely scored twenty seventeen. What okay,
stay away, I got nothing, Just go away. I like McCown.
He's he's actually a very good He won them games
last easier. That kind of screwed them in terms of
where they were drafting, so they had to like make
some trades to get their quarterback, which is kind of ironic, right,
(38:13):
And then now he's he's good. He does not turn
the ball over. I think that's gonna be a very
boring game, and the boring in the sense of not
a ton of scoring. Like I like, both teams don't don't.
All right, let's go to UH Jaguars at colts A
f C South in Indianapolis, Indianapolis by three d You
like it? Do you not like it? What? Do you
(38:34):
got ready for it? Jast seven point seven, So the
simulations most likely scored three. This is a high number. Okay,
what here's here's the reason why. If Leonard Fournette plays,
so they've had a week off. If Leonard Fournette plays
(38:56):
a lot, changes, if he doesn't play a lot, change
just so. Ultimately, so you want to keep an eye
on the injury You want to keep an eye on
the injury report on this one. The run game is
going to be the key to everything. The Jags don't change,
they can't come from behind, they can't seem to slow
people down once they've lost the lead or the tie, right,
So they're gonna need to create that stability through the
(39:17):
run game. That's a huge one in this one, especially
considering you know, like, look, here's here's my love for
Andrew Luck. Andrew Luck only ten sacks in eight games
and it's the lowest sack average in the league. So
they had to buy last week. The old line has
been great, there's been awesome and it was the greatest liability.
Let's credit Andrew Luck a bit with this with decision
making because he's avoided sacks in situations too. But the
(39:41):
past three games that they played zero sacks, So that's
that's very against this defense. That's unlikely to happen. Now
the a sack should happen that that seems like and
a good running game has helped him. I mean, Marlon
Macks been great. Absolutely, that's been a big boon as well.
Do you want to do playoff percentages or do you
want to do confidence? What would you prefer? Right now,
(40:02):
it's your adventure, you choose. So first I'm going to
get how about I give you like five people who
are to score touchdown and then we can do whatever
you want as long as it's compelling. If I don't
care if these people score touchdown, then then I don't care.
What do you like that? How do you like that?
Push back? Because you tell me Antonio Brown is going
to score touched and I'm gonna say, yeah, he tell
you something. You tell me Kareem Hunt's gonna score tough?
Who do you got? No, I'm gonna tell you something.
(40:23):
Let's go to score the touchdown. What do we got,
mark Ingram? You don't think that's not impressed? Not impressed?
Who else? Come on? That's right, cat calls from the crowd.
Who else you got? Who else you got? Um? Okay, fine,
I'll go deeper than that. Let's go with tight ends,
because you know what we got that one rape. Let's see,
it depends what tight end. I want to be impressed, Cynthia.
(40:43):
Who do you got? I'm gonna go with your guy,
Antonio Gates. Okay, that's interesting. He hasn't I think he's
got one touchdown this year, So that's interesting. Okay, And
that that's I think that's There's there's two okay, else
there's two, but only one that you like. So I
wanted to figure out which l A Ram wide receiver
to pick, because you want all of them. Find Robert
(41:04):
Woods is the best one to find an impressed, impressed
not impressed? You are the word. I am the worst.
I want to look. You want to give me touchdowns.
I want touch I want to be impressed. Who else
you got? Like? I want John Ross, I want Adam Humphreeze, Well,
Tyler boy I want Tyler Boyd. Of course he's gonna
score a touchdown. He's Tyler Boyd said he was your
number one receiver on Fantasy Live for the remainder of
(41:26):
the season, and so far that's bold prediction. Has has
been awfully smart. Okay. De Sean Jackson, Okay, that's interesting.
He's been in battled complaining a little bit. Kenny Golladay, Okay,
I like that as well, especially against a Chicago Bears
defense that has been awfully stingy see, that's good stuff. Alright. Well, finally, cheez,
we're getting a little And by the way, I think
(41:47):
Nick Chubb is huge, has a huge has a huge
Fantasy day. Okay, So there we go. That I can take.
And I also told you, Peter said earlier, so are
those confidence picks or those touchdowns? Those are just touched? Okay,
who's on the confidence picks? The confidence pick? All right?
So I already told you that I liked it there
to be more scoring and Sunday night in Philadelphia than
we thought. Okay, that's one. I think that your l
(42:10):
a c your charges. I think that they're big, huge,
monstrous win something to absolutely think about and a lot
like think about it. Let's do we need one more one? More,
let's go with one's a little sneakers because like it's
not you know, I want to keep it spicy for you.
That's what we like. I like spicy foods. I put
(42:30):
tapatio on my eggs. What do you got what? And
Frank's red hot? I love Frank's. I like the tappato better.
See I'm a French guy. Okay? Is it is it
spicy to say that New Orleans is going to win
by a lot. Of course they're gonna win by about Jacksonville. Fine,
I'll be. I'll be confidently because everybody else thinks it's fine.
That's confidence. Al right, win for the Jacks. All right,
(42:52):
Here we go now quickly to run through the playoff
percentages because we are just in week ten, so these
are fluid and they tend to change dramatically weekend change
rams and saints there so, but what's below them is
awfully interesting because you've got a third place team in
their division in the number four slots. So let's go.
(43:13):
Let's go with the NFC North champion according to your
model is go pack go yep, But look at their
remains all about remaining schedule they have in their mini
schedule They're favored in every game except for a coin
flip game against Minnesota. In Minnesota, they have four remaining
games where they're over favorites. In my way, that's why
(43:36):
they make it. So come at me, Come at me,
Minnesota fans. And by the way, Eagles, they're they're in
the number three spots. So it goes Ram Saints, Eagles, Packers, Panthers,
Bears right now and Panthers Panthers. Even if they do
not win on Thursday night, they will still be in
the playoffs. They have the best remaining schedule of these
kind of board. These fringe Viking fans are gonna be
(43:56):
pissed skull. They lead the NFC North right now and
you have them out of the postseason, or at least
you know this one. This one there right now, number seven,
This one's gonna come down to their meeting with the Bears.
Like they have a few, it could easily sway either
direction in this one. The Bears just have the benefit
of playing a easier schedule overall. They're playing that fourth
(44:18):
place schedule and the Vikings are not. They're playing a
first place schedule this season. So Vikings fans, you could
be mad because last year you were so good. That's
why I take it. Uh, let's go to the a
f C and what we have for our playoff percentages. Chiefs,
Patsy Boring, boring Um. Texans are number three, and by
(44:39):
the way, there's so Chiefs and Pats are both over Texans.
Steelers next they're around sixty two and sixty so that's
that's kind of interesting. And then the Chargers at number five,
they're actually sixty four percent. That's really high for a
fifth place team at this point in the season. And
then right now it's the Ravens. But honestly, between the Ravens, Bengals, Jags,
(45:03):
and Colts, this Jags, it's very tight. The Colts have
a big, big drop off as of right now. So
the Jags are, the Colts are, but this head to
head matchup will do a lot to shift that. My
the the whole thing here, the whole The Dolphins are next,
(45:23):
by the way, then, and if the Dolphins managed to
beat the Packers, they'll put themselves way into contingent two,
which is strange, but it's kind of weird how low
the Titans are. And and my whole thing watching this
is if the because the Titans have a pretty hard schedule.
They're playing the Patriots this week obviously, and they're not
slated to win that game. If somehow they win that game,
the Titans can play spoiler for the Jags. And I
(45:45):
think it's important to point out, as you said, the
Bengals and Ravens are separated by two tents of a
point and they have head to heads coming. So however
those play out is how that's going to exactly. All right?
That is uh. That is our Week ten game theory
and money. Again, a big thank you to those of
you download, streaming, listening, sharing on social media. Will be
back again next week see if Cynthia can put together
(46:05):
another dominant week. She has had a few so far
this season where it has been really lopsided in your
favor against the number. So we'll be back next week
to recap and remember to follow her on Twitter for
all updates based on injury reports. If you want to
put your picks in, you can do that on my
Twitter too. You can. There's a there you go. That's right,
you do encourage them, yeah, you go, you can do it.
(46:27):
Go against the math ways all right, Thanks for down
looking straight and listen and we'll be back again. And
I don't know what that is um and we'll maybe
figure it out. I have no idea what that is. Yeah,
we'll have to find out for Sean shop. Big thank
you to Sean and also Mark Brady and everybody affiliated
with the podcast that I've forgotten to it. Yes, Pill
shares the same last name for me to thank you.
Bill is your son, Uh, not my son, it's my father.
(46:50):
It's very odd the way that worked out. Medical miracle.
All right, we'll be back again next week
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