Game Theory and Money NFL Week 13 Predictions

Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Welcome to Game Theory and Money week thirteen here and uh,
you know what, let's get right to it. Cynthia, I've
decided I'm gonna I'm gonna freaking trick the system. Quick pick.
Let's go straight out the gate. You can't skip anything
that we do. Cynthia is bringing her quick pick right away. Okay,
So I think there's gonna be quite a few points
when Houston and Cleveland meet in Houston. Alright, lots of

(00:22):
Texans points, points, points, points that Texans offers really start
to find its stride. And hey, it turns out when
you Jackson's not around, the Brown's offense ain't too shabby either. Alright, Theory,
she has got that predictive analytics degree. Her model runs
ten thousand simulations for every single game. These are the
results from her specific unique to her only model. Uh.

(00:45):
To try to guide us to a I don't know,
a better understanding of what we think is gonna happen understanding. Uh.
One of three underconfidence picks last week, one of thirty
eight on the confidence picks for the year. I had
a request to be at Twitter for your confidence picks.
Tell Cynthia that she can give a spice whenever she

(01:09):
wants at any point in the podcast, let's make sure
the confidence are confident. You know what, I saw that
one too. I saw that one too, and I would like,
can you see this see these see highlighter highlights. Yeah,
so nothing on here is under seventy four point five.
I actually saw that comment as well, and you know
what I was with them. I thought they were right there.

(01:31):
So now we're and just like the one we started
out the gate with. By the way, that one a
lot of points in that game. It's seventy eight point
seven confidence. There we go, and now we are underway
Freeland's favorites. You are in step with the favorites in
these games. The number stealers favored by three and a half.
Sunday night football flex into that position. Chargers Steelers late

(01:55):
night back for you, huh late night one morning or
early morning. Yeah, I think we are starting to land
at five am. If I think five am l a time,
what does your voice sound like at five am? Like,
how gravel are we If we don't like what my
what my routine is, Well, you're gonna have to say
touchdown a lot. Yeah. Well that's what we're thinking is that.

(02:16):
What is that what we're thinking? Because the number looks
to be fifty two for a total in that game?
What what do you make? What do you what do
you like in this one? How does the model predict
it's going to turn out? Okay, so fifty two a
little close. I think it's about twenty three the Steelers winning.
I'm sorry, money part of this is because of no

(02:37):
Melvin Gordon. It's not going to impact the ability for
the Chargers to make it to the playoffs at all.
It's just going to be a fact that. First of all,
the Melvin Gordon thing. I know, Austin Ekeler is a
great replacement if you're in if you're playing fantasy, He's
wonderful for that. I just think the stability that Melvin
Gordon specifically brings to this team is something that I
think the Steelers are. You know, obviously I hate that

(02:58):
like home road splits for the steal I don't that's
not you know, I get mad about that, actually real
mad about that. But it is something where you do
have Ben plays like crap on the road. It's weird.
It is weird, is weird, but I think the Steelers
need to pull it together in the middle of their
defense is interesting. Their defense has improved. We did see
some strange things, but ultimately I think that the Steelers
get right right now. Yeah, I mean, I'll just add

(03:20):
if the Charges are gonna win this game one, they've
got to do better job tackling, specifically in the deep secondary.
They've gotten burned there far too much and you cannot
do that against this team, not with Schuster and not
what missus turns out. Yeah, j Brown pretty good and
I think second, uh, they're also um gonna have to
probably you know, they're gonna have to get not a
Melvin Gordon like I'll put from Austin Eckler, but a

(03:42):
Melvin Gordon plus Austin Ekeler like that's put from Eckler,
Justin Jackson, and maybe even a little Deetrez Newsome. I'll
say this, Justin Jackson was awesome in the preseason and
he looked freaking great in his limited time. That dude's
got some wiggle. Neither of those guys are Melvin Gordon.
Not about to say both had wiggle, and I'm with you.

(04:02):
I don't think that they're not acceptable replacements. It's just
you're going against the Steelers. It's not like you're asking
them to go against the Raiders, right like this is
the Steelers is the Steelers defense. They have a lot
of positive aspects. Is really freaking I don't want to
run anywhere near them. So that's to me, it's ultimately
Chargers instibility in the run game that informs this decision.
It'll be a it'll be a challenge, no question, Hardgrave, Heyward,

(04:26):
dupre t J Watt. They're going to present their hard
underrated most definitely. I think that's and especially where he's
lined up, that's been the one spot of the offensive line.
Mike Pouncey has been fine, especially when he's asked to
move around. But your guards, uh, specifically Dan Phenie's side
is kind of where it looks like teams have been attacking,
and boy, those guys can be a load uh, no question,

(04:47):
Heyward and Hardgrave. Alright. So and by the way, we
do have to give Philip Rivers some shine because consecutive
completions and I know, I think the I want to
say the number was eight was like eight five I've
per attempt so there were some there, but you had
a couple of big throws, I mean back of the
end zone throws to Mike William's sideline throws where only

(05:08):
Keenan could catch it. At the end of the half,
you had a guy who did not have a reception
all year. Philip hit him in stride twenty four yards
down the field on the sideline in a spot where
only he could get to it. So, yeah, it was
a great I took issue with those who said, oh,
it was just an easy just you know, by the way,
there's a reason that that's a historic number. That's an

(05:29):
outlier in the positive direction. People talk about, you know,
outliers in negative ways. This is an outlier in a
positive way. You're not gonna be able to replicate that.
It's I'm not being mean. I'm just saying, like, I'm
not saying anything bad about Philip Rivers. I'm just saying like,
that's there's a reason that's his historically relevant number. I mean, now,
I do think it is interesting that Ryan Tannehill was
a guy who owned the completion record that he tied

(05:49):
because that I'm guessing was a lot of dank and
dunk to Jarvis Landry for four yards in five yards
and four yards. But I'm just staying having sat and
watched this one. How hard was my eye roll just then?
Like if you had to rate on a one to ten,
I would say as a child, when I was in
elementary school and we first learned how to flip your
eyelids upside, I gotta hate that. No, no, no, so
you look like a zombie. That's how That's how big

(06:11):
your eye roll was. I could I could only see
the whites. Alright. We move on to Broncos at Bengals.
Broncos riding that two game streak and don't look now,
but their schedule is pretty darn favorable, where they might
end up at nine and seven, maybe even ten and
six if they went out. They will have that final
week against the Chargers at Denver. That is the toughest
game left on their schedule. The Broncos are favored by

(06:32):
four and a half on the road. Uh total forty
two and a half. What you got got the Broncos
winning nineteen. The confidence here is sixty four point nine
in them winning, and I think it's going to be
a higher scoring game than forty two point five, so
that one's pretty confident almost by the way, um, I
want to go back and make sure that we didn't

(06:53):
forget We didn't. We didn't leave anything out here with them,
with the Chargers and the Steelers, because I want to
say the Steelers win, and see see two point one
percent of the simulation. So I just want to be clear.
I just want to be clear that it's not, as
you know, the Broncos win is more certain than the
Steelers win in my model this week. Just just wanted
to throw that out there. Works for me. Um, Why

(07:13):
did the Broncos win? The Broncos win. Two things. Thing
Number one that's the most important thing here is really
the defensive deficiencies for the Bengals. If you look in
every metric that's traditional points per game, yards allowed, third
down percentage. You know I love third down percentage, they
all rank you ready last and or a second to last,

(07:34):
and passing yards per game or rushing yards per game allowed.
So it's really hard to it's really hard to project
a win for them, especially with Jeff Driscoll, who's by
the way backs up by Tom Savage. That's a really
hard thing. We don't know if A J. Green is
going to be playing or not, so it's not This
is just not a good situation for the Bengals. I'm sorry,
Bengals fans work for uh. And I will say the

(07:56):
one thing, it'll it'll be interesting because we've heard about
the limitation Andy Dalton, right, you know, and he can't
win a playoff game and he's a game pockets got
to be perfectly clear. I love those single games dads
about Jeff Driscoll being better. Basically, it's like, hey, Jeff,
Jeff Driscoll is going to be behind in an offensive
line that is a a little bit banged up and

(08:19):
b has been average. I think we would say at
best here, let me pull up what is there? Uh?
I believe in in terms of protecting the quarterback, they
are in the bottom. So you got a rookie basically
a rookie guy making his first start against Bradley chub
and Von Miller. Uh. That that's not a good compo.

(08:40):
I'll just I'll leave it. I don't need to say
much more than yeah, that's a that's a tough situation.
It is a tough It is tough sledding for the
Bengals in that one. As excited as you might be
about picking up a quarterback off of Waivers and him
becoming a great player, um At a good old Louisiana
Tech and I love Tech. I got myself a bulldog

(09:01):
shirt that has Tech right there in the collar. It's
one of my favorite mascots. I love that these guys.
You know, I love anything with a bulldog mascot. That's yeah,
that's right. Anyway. That's that's the combo I would say,
is you have um one of the great pass rushes
in the NFL, highlighted by Von Miller and Bradley Chubb,
and you've got Jeff Driscoll against a team that is

(09:21):
bottom ten and protecting the passer. That's probably not good
for your first time if you wait, if you did
want a good pick up, if you did want a
good like really sneaky value one week's type of situation.
We both like him. Tight end on the other side,
Matt lacosse your Chicago and if you need a tight end,
Matt lacos is one that you should consider. This week.
You know they lost Jeff Hireman, they lost him for

(09:44):
the season, so if you need one there, see, we
turned it into positive. We started negative. Now we went
because we lost Jack Doyle, so he was to start
on a lot of teams so like in a little
tiny voice, Alright, forty Niners at Seahawks. The Yorks are
favored by ten at home. The total is forty six,

(10:04):
and there's a big number for your Seahawks win. Seventy. Yeah,
that's pretty big. That's pretty convinced. You know. The score is.
There's there's a number of reasons why here, but the
one that really stands out as being most interesting to
me is the forty nine oh line. They were looking
really good and then whatever, for whatever reason, last game,

(10:27):
they started to not look as good as they had.
It's it's they've they've they're missing too many pieces. They
lost Jimmy Ward and it does it's unclear fees even
coming back. They lost him. During that Tampa game, there
was a lot of there's a lot of coming unraveled.
I thought that that they would have a little more stability,
but ultimately the model was wrong. I was wrong, and

(10:47):
I think that this is a big Seahawks win. Seahawks,
by the way, could easy. Seahawks are potential sneaky to
make the playoffs. So this is this is one that
and by the way, I don't think this is gonna
be a uh like if you look at that score
is only forty five points. The magic numbers forty six.
That's less than that. Because blowouts at home Seahawks, it's

(11:09):
going to be fewer points than you might imagine. Fewer Okay,
so there you go, a little bonus bonus. It's a blowout,
but fewer points then you might imagine. Overall, the Sandwich
Forts won't score a lot for them, and the Seahawks
like to run the ball, not to mention the best
offensive plays Matt Brita. So it's handing the ball to

(11:29):
Matt Breed up between the tackles and by the way,
trying to get after it. If you have George Kittle
in this matchup. I love George by the way. He's
underrated this season for sure, but this is this is
a this is a game where you might want to
temper your expectations for him to be. Basically, you're like,
exactly like zach Ertz type of type of tight end, well,
type of tight end. So that's what I would think

(11:52):
of in that like, because the Seahawks are going to
they know that he's their receiver. Come on, so that's
that's just temper good when he's a Ferrari when he's
just the slightly bit dinged up. He's got nothing going
and he was out last week. So George Kittles their
number one receiver. So just just so you know, you
know who else knows that, Pete Carroll, Pete Carroll, as
Norm Child would say, Pete Carroll knows that too. Bears

(12:13):
at Giants, Bears favored by four and a half. Looks
like it's gonna be a Chase Daniel game. And you
think so because I think it's so gonna Mitch. I
know you want to know what I think. Yeah, I
think that Matt, if you injected him with sodium pentethal,
that Matt Naggie would tell you that he likes Chase better.
I think it was clear in the game script and

(12:34):
the throws that he was making, in the way he
spread the ball around and the downfield throws. I think
that is a really aggressiveness. Smith and Daniels greater than Sat.
Chase Daniel is better quarterback than Mitch Drabinski in five
years when Mitch it's his sea legs. But I think
it's been a little bit of a struggle for him.
He's had his highs, they've a lot of it's coming

(12:56):
with his legs though to remember and that six touchdown
game or whatever it was, it was the same route.
It was the same damn route that he ran the
entire freaking game and a defense could never make an
adjustment to slow it down. I'm not trying to take
anything away from him. I'm just pointing out that defense
never never adjusted to a wheel route that he was

(13:20):
throwing out of the backfield uncovered for six touchdowns. So
you can call it hot takey. All I'm saying is
I'm just saying, maybe it's like also an indictment of
the Bucks defense again, right, Like I don't mean to
be rude, I'm not saying whatever, but like it's both right,
it's mitched with like six week old. That's great, Like
they called the right player. That just means is a
great play caller. Right. That means Bucks defense isn't good,

(13:42):
and it means mitopysically don't know anything about him, right,
Like I just don't. I don't quite know why it's
such a big Again, I mean, I know what you mean,
because that does sound hot takey. Hey, guess what Jase
Danvie is better than? That's not what I'm saying. What
I'm saying is if you watched the way that he
threw the ball and spread the ball around and the
confidence in which he gave Chase Daniel when time was

(14:04):
of the essence and a half, he was pushing it,
and that is not what we'ves anyway. So can I
tell you what I looked at? Because because we were
on Fantasy Live this morning together and I knew where
you're going a little bit extra homework here, and ultimately
somebody with my hot take. No, it wasn't that I
was like, you know what I need to look into here?
And actually I asked on Twitter. I asked, like, you know,

(14:25):
please name some underrated players, and people gave me awesome answers,
and this kind of like sparked. Both things kind of sparked,
like tell me about how a backup quarterback influences a
starting quarterback and like the Alex Smith with Patrick Mahomes
last season, the Chase Daniel and Mitchell Strobinsky and like
these types of things. And I'm going to tell you
that teams with better backups, like like starting caliber backups,

(14:49):
like people who could start, Like I used the three
game like and you legitimately like, hey, three games like
against any of my three opponents that could start like
that kind of person, the Nick Foles. I guess if
you want to say that, that is absolutely a huge
different figure. And the key to that is how well
they know the offense. It's not necessarily how I'm not
gonna say how good they're because good enough to make

(15:10):
a team, but that is apps it is a gigantic,
gigantic deal. I'm starting to put together like a little
bit on like how to quantify that a little bit
better other than saying that like those that three, like
being able to count on someone for three actual wins,
it's like that's it's the difference between playoffs and not playoffs, right, No,
I totally totally hear you. So so what I'm saying

(15:31):
is is like I agree with your point in the
sense of I believe what it tells us is that
Chase Daniel is completely comfortable with Matt Neeggie's playbook and
it's helping Mitch out. And yeah, and that helps Mitch
big time. But the reason so what I have here
is I have bears now stay tuned in case it's
just stay tuned to the injury work, because I'm there's

(15:51):
a chance that I have. Here's my question, do you
think your model will change? I ran it both ways.
I ran it both ways. It was six. It was
like to so I left it. So, yes, I mean
it changes a little bit, but since the key numbers
four and a half, that it doesn't really make that
big of a difference, right in that sense. So, and

(16:13):
the reason why is because the Giants are still twenty
eight on third down in defense and their thirty feet
and sacks, so it's not gonna be a pressure situation
for whomever the quarterback is. And by the way, the
Bears are number one, if the number one turnover defense
and they're the best big play stopping defense. So how's
that offensive line for the Giants? Oh? Okay, there we go. Sorry, No,

(16:36):
I love that. I think it's the thing is is
like it's true, but it's not. It's not true for
like the hot take, like Chase Daniels better than Mitchis.
It's true for the fact that like where we are
right this second, and what it actually means for the
Bears future. So Bears should be really happy all the way.
That's all I'm saying. I'm saying exactly exactly if you
put it this way, if if you and out and look,

(16:58):
you got to see Mitch against the Vikings. The defense
won that game. You know, Mitch had two interceptions. He
was not great in that game. He made a couple
of big plays, no question about it. Um And he's
able to rush the ball and and Chase well, that
little bowling ball can run two though, and he was
doing it at Miszoo. But it's let's say it's December
and the Bears are hosting the Vikings and it comes

(17:19):
down to that one game for the NFC North. I'm
asking you who would you rather have quarterback that game
against that Vikings defense. I mean, I just think you're
gonna say Mitchell's fine. I mean, I got no problem
with that. I'm going to have to be perfectly honest
with you. I'm gonna have like, whoever's healthiest. Like I
don't necessarily if Mitche's shoulder is a d percent, in
no way it's Mitch. If I don't know, I don't

(17:40):
really like I gotta look into I gotta look a
little bit more at Chase Daniel now. So especially if
you get a second game out of him. Right, And
here's here's the other thing. I'm gonna tell you there
is a chance we're gonna into the playoffs later, but
there is a chance that the only unfavorable weather climate host. Wow,
that's a lot of words in the playoffs for that.
I know what you're saying could be the Bears. So
that actual scenario you just came up with this pretty important.

(18:02):
So we're gonna watch especially you know, this week. I
know it's it's in New York, but it's but it's
still as l A. Steans inside, Dallas inside, and then
right now it's the Panthers. It's pretty nice in North Carolina.
I mean it gets a little a little chilly, but
not that big deal. So anyways, I just wanted to say,
just saying, hey, when the when the Packers win the

(18:23):
rest of the games this year. No, I'm with you.
Actually we're talking about that later too. Yeah, they're not
gonna be at home. Let's go Colts Jaguars. The Courts
are favored by four. The Jags are a hot mess.
Uh total forty seven and a half, and you have
a final score of Colts. Colts win in sixty one
point five percent of the simulations that Colts stay away

(18:45):
from the total Colts stay away from how many points
are going to be in there. So the Colts third
down offense, remember when I used to think it as
a fluke. Remember I used to think it was a
lying number. Yep, well it's not. Turns out I was wrong.
Fifty point seven that's their third down offense. That's the
best in the NFL. And by the way, offensive diversity.
So the a number of different pass catchers that catch touchdowns,

(19:07):
that catch passes, twelve different touchdown receivers, that's number two
in the NFL to Drew Brees. That's what Andrew lux doing.
Try to find one way to sort of crystallize how
important Andrew Luck is and not just and look I
love his old line. Yes they're missing Ryan Kelly the center,
but the old line is still awesome. No matter like
they're awesome, they're doing great. But it's not just the

(19:27):
fact that he has time. Andrew Luck is free and
special and we're seeing it. No. Well, look, I mean
he there's a reason why it was the number one pick,
and there's a reason why the Carolina Panthers, even though
they end up with Cam Newton, was pretty darn good too.
Uh freaked out when you decided to go back to Stanford.
He is an awesome quarterback. He has thrown three touchdowns
and eight games in a row. There's the number four
scoring offense points per game. It's like Stanford, Now what

(19:52):
the inn. You credit Chris Ballard for doing this, and
specifically Frank Reich even more important for recognizing this. Not
to mention, I do want to point out that I
know the roc Nick Sirianni. He was the wide receiver's coach,
and I knew. And by the way, the Chargers got
another one, Shane Stike, in their QB coach. He's going
to be an o C next year. I mean, these
are two really, really bright guys. You credit Frank and
Nick saying exactly, Nick, uh Andrew? What Andy, what did

(20:16):
you like doing at Stanford? Wollw Yeah. I mean we
had a lot of big bodies in the red zone
and I threw to a ton of tight ends. All right,
let's go out and get three pass catching tight ends.
And let's really work with this Eric Ebron because he
is an athletic freak and a genetic freak, and let's
just and he just now, we'll just put some velkra
on them and so so you know, what and I
heard I might have been our colleague Bucky. Maybe I
shouldn't even say that. I don't know if it was

(20:37):
in confidence he said this, But I don't think it's
that big of a deal, you know. He said, Look,
some schools guys just need to be loved up. Other
schools are totally fine with getting aired out and screamed
at and maybe just needed a different approach. Was like
a big like, do you think Mac's going to be more? No?
I just mean in terms of Ebron coming out of
North Carolina, he didn't. He wasn't Larry Fedoras. I don't

(21:00):
think so. I don't think anyway. What I'm saying is
maybe just different atmospheres. All Ebron needed to realize his
potential in being a top ten pick as a tight
end when he came out. But the point is is
that luck looks so comfortable. Like I mean, they were
down ten and I did not even blink in that
Dolphins game, wondering whether or not they were going to
come back and win it, and uh, of course chips

(21:21):
were down. You know what the best thing to watch
is in this game, and it's it's something so number
fifty three. That's Darius Leonard. We talked about him a
couple of weeks ago. We talked about him a bunch
the potential defensive rookie of the year. Look, if I
just don't like the reason I don't think he gets
it is not because like I think Derwin James deserves
it if I were, if I were voting. But I
just don't think he gets it because, first of all,

(21:42):
it's rare linebackers. Even though he's leading the league in tackles,
it's just it's like a it's like a freak rarity.
I would love for him to get it. He's definitely
a potential on there, but I just think there's other
bigger names that's that are probably gonna get ahead of him.
But that's not saying he doesn't deserve it. That's just
I mean I think because look, he's already got three
and a half sacks, he's not got three inner sceptions.
Uh yeah, I love those coverage end up winning. Um No,

(22:04):
I mean he is spectacular. Is Cody Kessler going to
get how many does he get a coverage sack against?
Or how many tackles does he make in this game?
Because no, less I was talking about Durwin James. I'm sorry, Yeah,
I love Derwan's No go with Derwin James. I love
his coverage sacks too. I think it's it's Bradley Chub
if he gets to likes because Bradley has the defensive end,
and defensive ends are more likely to get it. Corners

(22:27):
and defensive ends get it. And now, by the way,
you've got the high profile of the Cowboys in Laton Van. Anyway,
they said different conversation, but anyway, I do think it's
it's it's vander Esch, it's Leonard, it's Derwinn, and it's
Chob It'll be honestly, they're all really really good. They've
really panned out, you know, like of the this draft
has been a really strong draft overall. Like I mean,
there aren't that like people who are like, wow, that's

(22:47):
a bus Like it's been a really strong draft. So anyways,
I just think Cody Kessler. By the way, if you
hadn't heard, you know, Jags RMS and Cody Kesler starting,
and I think that's going to be a really tough
It's gonna be a tough off day for him. I
love Cody. He's one of my favorite USC quarterbacks. He
was not personal. I just think it's gonna tough. No,

(23:08):
I'm saying I wish him all the luck in the world.
He was. He is one of those blue collar kids
from central California that didn't have a private quarterback tutor,
played at his local public high school that was in
his neighborhood, kicked ass as a public school kid. I'm
with you, right, So he's a great story, and you
pull for guys like that. I'm not gonna work this
week unfortunately for him. All right, Chiefs at Raiders a

(23:32):
road game in which the Chiefs are lane fifteen and
a half and the total is fifty five, and your
model says what Chiefs win? In eighty two point four
percent of the simulations, the final score is Chiefs thirty
three seventeen seventeen. Bananas for me. Okay, Well, main reasons, oh,

(23:57):
line stability and run game for the Chiefs and the
Raiders or lasts and run defense. And there's a lot
of reasons to keep going on that. But I do
think that means in a lower overall scoring game, I
don't think if the magic number is fifty five, I
think it stays fewer points than that, and like by
a significant margin, Like I like, in sixty eight point
nine percent of my simulations, if that magic numbers fifty five,

(24:19):
it doesn't get there. So what's that I'm just trying
to figure out, Like I don't I don't know kind
of whether or not the psychology of it comes in
for Andy Reid and that his defense has been so bad.
Eric Barriers practicing today, which is huge for them, But
I don't know if the idea is Okay, this team stinks.

(24:40):
We just gaze up, gave up fifty four points in
a loss, and our defense was nowhere to be. We
scored fifty one points and lost a game. Somehow managed
to lose a football game. Not to mention, Pat Mahomes
had what six turnovers or five five or six turn
o I think so it's two fumbles that were returned
for touchdowns and three inceptions five turnovers. I almost wonder
if this is a Alabama versus Citadel style game where

(25:04):
it's like, hey, Pat, I want you to go out
there and I want you to freaking put on a show.
I want six touchdowns, I want four hundred yards where
I know they're a bad run dye, but we are
going to freaking wash. Our system of that RAMS game
and our defense is gonna play like like. I like
your I like your logic. I'm just telling you where
the where the math netted out. But I think that's

(25:26):
just where. It's not what the numbers would say it
should be. But I almost that's the psychology of it
with you. We gotta get our guy right because because
two weeks ago it was a bit of a mess. See,
I feel I think my model favors Okay, first of all,
it's I've got you know, Andy Reid coming off of Bye.
We're gonna hear nothing, nothing but that, right, six and
three about to be seventeen and four, Right, I hate that.

(25:47):
But anyways, long story story. By the way, Andy Reid
coming off of Bye. So, by the way, if there's
two things are pod listeners should not do One Andy
Reid coming off of Bye. I mean, it's just a
funny joke. And number two, it is Chase Daniel. It
is not Chase Daniels. It's like daylight savings time, daylight
savings time. Right, No, I was saying it's Chase Daniels savings.

(26:09):
It's the same analogy. It's Chase Daniel and saving Daniels.
Jeff Daniels way different. Not going to quarterback your team
Chase Daniel anyway? Think of Daniel is your brother, he's
older than you. Do you still feel the pain in
the scar? I got a tribute question? What is it? Oh?
By the way, the reason, the reason I think that

(26:29):
it stays more conservative is I think in this game,
Andy Reid starts to be more like, show us a
little bit less right, like they pulled everything out. They
gotta start getting in playoff mode, and I think Danny
Reid starts to show us a little bit less like
I don't think you're gonna see as much pre snap
stuff like you're seeing. I mean, yes, the Raiders are
susceptible to pre snap stuff, but I think that prestap
stuff and trying to trick opposing defenses, I don't think

(26:51):
they're gonna need it in this one. So I don't
think they're going to show us anything because they got
Baltimore the next week, so you probably don't want guys
getting beat up. So who knows, maybe they do todowns,
pull everybody and relax. All right, Look guess what I
guess what I didn't do. I didn't put the trivia
in the Google Doctors week, So you can't cheat, all right,
I don't cheat. I just say, well, I know the answer.
It's right in front of me. If I were to cheat,

(27:12):
I would give you the answer and then pretend. Okay. So, unsurprisingly,
the Chiefs have had a lead, so their Chiefs defense
have had a lead on se their defensive snaps that's
the most in the NFL, second most, sorry, second most
in the NFL. Who is number one the most? Who

(27:32):
has had the most defensive snaps when they're in the lead,
So their their team. No one's playing from behind most
defensive snaps when their team is in the lead. Well,
obviously I'm thinking Rams or Saints because of their record.

(27:52):
Um so Chiefs to number two, So I would guess,
I gonna guess Rams. It's the Bears. It's the Bears defense,
all right. But here's here's what we tell you. This
is why this is extra good because look at our
next game. It's going to be this Well, it's the Saints, right,

(28:14):
we switched it around here, but it was supposed to
be the Saints, and the Saints are number Saints number
three six. You weren't off, but too far off? I'm
just saying you were, you were, You were completely right.
I mean, it's just that's clever though, because we forget
that there is a dominant defensive team that can win
games on defense. It's not all offense. This year, We've

(28:35):
got one team to hang our hat on, and I'm
so happy I finally figured one out. I'll even let
you skip the Bucks Panthers till next. Let's go Saints
Cowboys Thursday and on Wednesday. Now, there we go, Saints
favored by seven and a half point total fifty two
and a half. And your model is pretty confident that
my model is kind of fighting. It's a big number.
I got the Saints winning thirty one twenty one, Saints

(28:57):
winning sixty nine point seven of the simulation that is
ten points. Is surprising for me, So I looked pretty
deep into this. First of all, the Cowboys only have
one of their wins against a team with a winning record,
and that was the Washington Redskins last week with Colt McCoy.
So that's that's some context right there. Certainly, that's that's

(29:19):
on your schedule. And I didn't get a big win
at Philadelphia, so I think it's important, Like, hey, I'm
not saying they're good. I'm not saying they're not good.
But I think it's I think we saw, you know,
it's Thanksgiving. We saw Marik Cooper catch two touchdowns in
a billion yards, like we saw all these things. Were like, oh,
the Cowboys are back. But but but like pump the
brakes a little bit, I still like, you know, we're

(29:40):
spoiler alert here. I still have the Cowboys making it
to the playoffs as the NFC East winner. But temporary
expectations in this one, because when I looked down into
it a little bit, it's really so. And you talked
about late in Vanderesh and I'm gonna add Jalen Smith
to that one. Notre Dame. He's been awesome and both
of them have been great. Great story too, that he's
been able to come back. You can't even see it.

(30:00):
Remember that drop foot, that that injury was awful. They
were so smart to draft him in the second round.
They were like, well, maybe it doesn't pay off whatever.
He would have been a top ten pick. I don't
even remember who was picking them, right. That was a
two quarterback. He was is the best defensive player in
the and then that happened they got him the second round. Anyways,
long story short, he looks great. So both of them

(30:23):
look great. And Dallas's defensive front is their strength. And
Marcus Randy Molik Crawford like they're all they have a
lot of great got of great things there on. There's
one issue with that though. I'm gonna stop you there
because the one thing that I've noticed um with the Chargers,
and of course everything is always applicable, just because it's
the team that I studied. So I'm trying to figure

(30:44):
out how to solve this riddle. Right, what are they?
They were one of the worst teams on third down
before Joey Bosa came back, because when it was an
obvious passing situation everything, you're still on my point? Are
you still at my point? Keep going? Go ahead? The
the co Boys can't get anybody off the field on
third down there twenty nine. You know, that tells me

(31:05):
they don't get an effective pass rush, because that's what
happened with the Chargers. They weren't getting effective pass rushes.
And I was watching teams going nine of twelve on
third down, ten of fourteen on third down that coming
into the game, We're like and and third down, I'm like,
what the hell is going on with the Chargers? And
I was like, oh wait, there's no Bosa, there's no
pass rush. Gus Bradley's got to get exotic and and

(31:26):
blitz Derwin James or do something like that in order
to get these teams off the field. If you ain't
getting Drew Brees off the field, you know, you can
celebrate the Marcus Lawrence and all these guys all you want.
That ain't happening, and they're gonna get torched. Did I
steal your point? Kind of? So I looked. I looked
at their defense against like swings and screen so things
behind the line of scrimmage and then passes one to
ten yards and it was kind of because, by the way,

(31:49):
that's where Alvin Kamara and mark Ingram that's kind of
where they really eat and they create those first downs.
So when I looked at that situation, they are like,
they're pretty vulnerable. Hundred two point five passer rating alown
to allowed to the behind the line of scrimmage passes
and then eighty nine point eight two ones to ten
one to ten are yards. Um, those are those are

(32:11):
pretty blaring numbers, especially when you go ahead, and you
look on the other side of the ball in New Orleans,
the behind the line of scrimmage things, he's you know,
one thirteen point two passer rating and one to ten
one point eight passer rating. So ultimately what they what
what this is telling me is that as good as
Late and vander rash and Jalen Smith have looked kind
of in the pure run game, those hybrid small passes

(32:33):
and those those things that those short left, short, right,
short middle passes that you've seen be this hallmark of
the Saints offense, that's not the area where they've been
able to effectively stop teams. So that, to me, that
lays this foundation, which means Michael Thomas and by the
way that Michael Thomas, Byron Jones stuff like Byron Jones

(32:53):
does have a low passer rating allowed, very low. He's
he's got a great number. But you gotta put that
in context, like look at some those teams he's faced, right,
like who was he lining up against in Washington? Right? Like?
Who was he There's some there's some gnarly numbers in there.
So I'm not saying he's not great. I'm just saying
temporary expectations especially because Michael Thomas doesn't just line about wide,

(33:14):
he's in the slot, He's all over the place. So
that's kind of the difference in this one. It's just
too many options. Yeah, I just I look at you
can't get teams off the field a third down and
you're giving Drew Brees. You know, let's let go historic offense. Okay,
let's do it with you. I think uh, I think Saints. Um,
I think that's it. It's it looks like it's a

(33:34):
big number. But man, and also, by the way, after
the Saints they get the Eagles, then they got to
go to Indie. I mean, it's it's the Eagles. That
Eagles game. That Eagles game could very well be for
the NFC East title. That it very well could be.
So that's that's like that because only one team from
the NFC East is going only one right, and it's

(33:56):
either going to be the Eagles or the Cowboys. Sorry, Washington,
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(34:57):
looking for when it comes to fill in that job.
All right, the game we skipped and u NFC South
show down between the Bucks and Panthers. The Panthers are
favored by three and a half and you have four,
which means more than three and a half. Panthers win.
In sixty point two percent of the simulations and the

(35:17):
primary reason for this, and the Panthers are on this
kind of two game skid, but this is a this
is a get right game because ultimately, when you look
at the Bucks and their inability there, so they're worse
than turnovers on offense and their twenty nine than turnovers
on defense, their red zone, their last on defense. This
is an area where you're gonna see if if the

(35:38):
Panthers are going to make it to the playoffs, they
shouldn't have dropped those past two games. But if they're
going to make it to the playoffs and they still
have the Saints twice, that's not once, but twice, they're
gonna need to win this game and they're gonna need
to do it in Tampa. And my model and the
ultimately their defense and the fact that their offensive diversity
is very is very good. Like they're including more people

(36:00):
in their offense. It's not just Christian McCaffrey and UM
and Cam Newton, although it's a lot of Cam Newton.
I mean, look, he has twelve rushing first sound this season,
which is tied for third most in the NFL just overall.
So that's just I guess my point is, well, that's
on third down rather so third downs that convert to
first downs. He's twelve. That's crazy. So you know it

(36:21):
is cam, but it's also the fact that this defense
is very targetable. So this is if they if they're
going to do it, they need to do it now.
It I don't I don't see it. I mean, to me,
it looks really tough. I just I just look, No,
I'm not talking about Bucks in this game. I'm just
talking about so you think the Panthers in this game
because it look if they win against Tampa, then they

(36:42):
beat Cleveland. Uh you mentioned that means out of three games,
they've got to beat at Land at home and probably
knock off New Orleans in one of those two. Because
we're gonna get to it. I think the Packers are
winning out and that knows them at nine six and
one and puts the Panthers at nine and seven, and
nine six and one turns out is better than nine
and seven. You know, like, if maybe my faith in

(37:05):
the Packers it really is unwoarded because they looked terrible.
It is December. There's another thing I hate December. Packers.
Aaron Rodgers at home in December. Less than that, it's
the fact. And I know we don't like talking about
home and the road because you know, obviously they're going
not obviously, but there's zero and five. I think they're
one in whatever it is, one in nine in their
last ten on the road. So you've got to pay

(37:26):
attention to that. But and why would you project that
they're going to beat the Bears in that defense when
the offense, Well, let's look at their other games, because
they're over seventy winners. I mean, we're spoiler alert. I mean,
but they're playing the Cardinals. That shouldn't be a huge
spoiler in their four in their five games left, they're
only one game where they're not favorite, and the other
ones around the weather ones are around. One just has

(37:47):
the Bears number knows how to rip the hearts out
of that particular team's fan base in a minute. But
if you're smart and you have ESP or Zipp recruiter,
you can probably figure out that if if you, oh,
look and you're like, you know what if if for
some reason the Packers pack it into the playoffs, like
that could be a deep gash to other people, That

(38:08):
could be a deep gash. So if you if you
believe in the Packers, you maybe should go look to
see what you think about it's going to start this week.
Go think about the super Bowl, you know, just go
to the one and all right, here we go. That
was Bucks Panthers. Now we go to the pushes. The
games the favorite should win. But the model agrees exactly
with the number. These are the stay aways Browns at Texans.

(38:29):
Texans favored by six total. You have three in favor
of the Texans who win in fifty nine point nine
percent of the simulations. Why, well, by sub sixty What
did you say, you think it's sub yeah, sub sixty

(38:50):
percent by point one percent, so almost. Um. Look, when
it comes to the direction of each of these teams,
you can say both are getting better. Absolutely, Browns are
actually in playoff consideration. I mean they're not completely out
of it in December. Wow, that's a huge improvement. But
the Browns against this defensive front, Baker Mayfield against this

(39:11):
defensive front is not ideal. And by the way, the
Browns defense, even though Myles Garret is tied for the
most pressures in the league individually, it's kind of like
what you were talking about with the Chargers. Overall, the
Browns are like pressure, So overall they're not getting pressure
on opposing quarterbacks very often. And you've seen what Deshaun
Watson can do. I mean, look, he's he's got like

(39:33):
a ninety point passer rating swing between under pressure and
not under pressure. So if you give Deshaun Watson time,
he has an over pass raining. So that's really what
it comes down to. The inability for Cleveland to consistently
bring pressure on Deshaun Watson is less than the ability
for the Texans defense to bring pressure against Baker Mayfield. Yeah,
it's um, it's hard to figure out what the Browns

(39:55):
are because they looked so darn good at the start
of the season, right when they lost gains because of
a kicker um. But then I watched again, watched him
in person when a lot of people were picking them
to knock off the bolts on whatever it was week
five or week six, and I saw what Gus Bradley did.
He just flooded the lanes with big bodies and just
contain Baker, and he made a bunch of mistakes. And

(40:16):
you talked about that defense. Those are big dudes up front.
J J. Watt, Jadeveon, Clowney, Whitney, Merciless. And you know,
it's one thing to torch the Cincinnati defense, it's one
of the worst in the league. It's another thing to
try to figure out that puzzle. Um. Not to mention
with Tyrone Matthew back there, Tyron Matthew. Yeah, no, what

(40:37):
the Texans are what lowest passer rating on like backfield targets?
Second longest they have like great like not just like
look not just two running backs, but if you look
at their ability to if you have two people bringing sacks,
so they're tied for the second most sacks among teammates
or whatever duos with eighteen and a half between Davion
and Clowney and J. J. Watt together, that's brilliant. Like

(40:59):
those two you you're you're nailing it there right, having
to or multiple pressures coming from different sides of the front.
That's the trick to making the pressure work right, like
to getting the sack. Having one, got to have multiple,
right like two three that's great. Yeah, three is great.
And they got three and they got Merciless, Clowney and
Watt and they can all get after you. Um, I'm

(41:21):
with you. That's that's a tough one. But at the
same time, man, Baker's just kind of got don't well,
that's what's weird about it. This isn't a pick against Baker.
In fact, you could play both of these guys in fantasy,
like if you really. By the way, he's also been
better with Nick Chubb, you know, with Nick back because
he's got that home more play action too, so there's
leasing a lot more play action. Everyone's using a lot

(41:43):
more play action this season. But it's like they're actually
really effective with their play action because Dick Chubb is
an actual threat, right, breakaway threat, whereas they didn't feel
like they need anyway. Um, all right, how about the
Rams at Lions rampavor by ten total fifty four and
a half. You have the Rams winning in seventy six percent,
So what's the score two? Let's ten. You think that'll

(42:07):
surprise my Patricia? Um, nothing surprises Patricia. Absolutely, there's nothing
at all. There is absolutely nothing. You know what word
I hear when I see this game. I gave a
word clinch, because that's what's gonna happen, right, that's clinch. Yeah.
But they will still have a game at Chicago that

(42:28):
I think a lot of people are going to be watching, Well, yeah,
offense is pretty fancy, but let's see what it looks like. Well,
that one's going to be for home field, right, Like
that one's going to be like, hey, Saints, you got
like some you've got more losable games left than us.
We've got the Saints. I think, I think just because
it's like division They've got the Panthers twice, and like

(42:49):
divisional things are always a little bit weirder, and then
the Rams, Like, I guess that's true. It's hard to
be a team twice, especially within three weeks. Yeah, so
I'm not saying they're going to let let me be clear,
I'm not saying they're going to lose one. But I
think it's like, you know, like Rams Saints, like they
who wants numbers Chicago and for whatever reason, Philly can
some which no, that's secondary, you're that's true. You're absolutely right.

(43:09):
So they're not losing another game except that Chicago game
that I mean, that's right on, Like, that's the one
that's right. So, so here's what I'm looking for in
this one. Because I'm not going to spend my time
telling you why the lines are not going to win
this game. I'm going to spend my time telling you
something to look for with the Rams that's a potential
key to their postseason future, and that's rushes in the middle.

(43:31):
They rank number thirty two, that's last with yards per
rush allowed over the middle. So like you know when
a team when an opposing offense runs behind their center,
they're allowing five point eight nine yards per rush there,
and people are doing it often. It's not a low number.
It's not a small sample size situation. It's a Aaron
Donald's getting chipped, were creating whole and you know who's

(43:52):
not playing their three technique right Yeah? And Domakunu. So
that's really what's happening. I'm calling him out. I don't
care it was terrible in Miami or they were a
terrible run defense when he was in Miami. And look
as great as he because he probably has like a
sack clause, but not a run stopping clause. That's the
thing though, Field on every snap, I mean the guy
because he's he's where the pass rush has to come

(44:13):
from unless able to come and and Fowler are going
to get after it like they did against the Chiefs.
He's got to get upfield. So what's the best way
to the gate That run right at it. And that's
why teams are gashing him for over five yards. So
what I'm what I'm watching for in this one is
the Lions. Um you saw him at the draft, Frank
right now. He he was drafted out of Arkansas. He's

(44:33):
their first round pick. He's actually played really It sounds
really weird to say that he's playing really well because
the Lions have some pretty like horrendous stats overall. But
that's the spot if they're going to run that Frank
usually play his left guard. They put him at the
left guard. But if they're gonna run, they're gonna figure
out a way to like get that nice matchup so
that they can create some space the going to run right.

(44:56):
The problem is they don't have Garry on Johnson. But
I do think that lit Garrett Blunt in the red zone,
I do. I'm really looking at red zone, red zone offense.
If they can use the middle of that field, like
right in the middle of their D line. I'm watching
that because that's the area that I would attack them
if I'm if I'm the Patriots further down down the line,
or from you know, these are these are things you

(45:18):
should be if. Look, these are high class problems to have.
If I'm telling you how the Patriots are going to
potentially defend you, that means that I'm saying you have
Super Bowl aspirations. So please don't take it rams fans.
Isn't me saying anything negative. I'm just saying, like, here's where,
like we gotta be strategic about it. Let's take a
look at it from like a coach would and you
know who kind of is a proxy for what maybe
New England would do. It turns out that guy who

(45:41):
is a slab. But you know what I'm saying, like,
they have Super Bowl aspirations, So you've got to like say, like,
where are they vulnerable in this? In the meantime, here
you go. Are you ready? I'm ready. That's the points
allowed their last four games. Okay. I appreciate that they
can score a lot of points, um, but you know,

(46:02):
sooner or later, and that Saints defense is getting a
lot better run into it. They've doubled their sacarate in
the past three weeks compared to the first nine. You're
gonna run aod and you better have a defense that
can at least help you out. You know, that's that's
gonna be the key, because guess it's just it's it's
not I just it's hard for me. It's the same

(46:23):
thing with the Chiefs. It's just hard for me to
accept that. How many times have we done this with
the Chiefs? Not the fast forward to them, actually we
already talked about them, so not to rewind to the
Chiefs against the Raiders, but how many times have we
celebrated the Chiefs in the regular season they show up
in the playoffs and they lose at home in the
first round. Because that's exactly what the last year against
That's exactly what happened the Rams last season with the Falcons.

(46:44):
It's exactly what happened to the Rams against the Falcons.
But to the Chiefs against the Titans, they had a
good defense show up and when the offense sputtered, it's like, okay,
d you gotta help us out here, and they try
to and anyway, um, anyway, that's one thing I'm looking for. Yeah,
I just can't. I'm trying to find something to make
it interesting. Can envision that defense slowing down this Ram's offense.

(47:04):
Maybe they'll stop for Uros at Maybe they can bring
Arrows back for me because they are really good Euros
at Ford Field. So maybe if one of the RAMS
people is coming into here to the NFL network the
next day, maybe they can bring me back at euro
That could be the positive thing from it. Great Zeros
at Ford Field. I believe they're pronounced giro no zero
believe I mean to correct zero, I don't know and

(47:27):
zero what you're talking about? Okay, let's go Bills at Dolphins.
The Dolphins are favored by five total forty. What do
you got blah blah blah, I have the Dolphins winning eighteen.
Let me be totally ones with you. If I were,
if I were, if I were thinking about anything other
than if I were thinking about anything other than football,

(47:47):
like how much I love it and how much I
love every snap of every play, I wouldn't even watch
this game. I don't even give a crap about this game.
So Dolphins win sixty seven. Do kind of like watching
Josh Allen run around, and I like watching him truck too.
It's because he's so freaking big, and that's what they
should have been doing with him from the start. PI Granted,
I get it, so I guess. I guess My point
is is, I'm just saying I'm not saying I wouldn't
watch it, like as a fan, I'm just saying I

(48:09):
wouldn't watch it. You know what I'm saying, Yes, you
feel me, Okay, So that's so I don't know. Ultimately
for me, the Dolphins here their new layers that you
just saw some new stuff out of their offense. You
just Canyan Drake a little bit differently. You saw some
new layers, and ultimately that could potentially trick the very
up and down bills who were not entirely sure. We're
got to play the paths. They still have to go

(48:29):
to Minnesota. You know, they're going to have to finish
at least ten and six. I think nine and seven
at worst. And I just don't know where where they're
not getting to. I gotta believe they lose to New
England at home in Minnesota at Minnesota. So whatever, I
just like, I think I think the Dolphins offense, I
think no, I'm sorry, the Dolphins total of their twenty

(48:50):
two starters on offensive defense, I believe last game they
only eight from their initial starting lineup or the last
time Brock played that's what happens. It's you know, there
are teams that end up getting snake that injury wise,
and it derails their season, you know, especially when it's
their starting quarterback, especially when they don't have any many
or any blue chips on our team. Just saying harder

(49:11):
a reminder. By the way, the twenty nine team Pro
Bowl vote, we are at the halfway point, so make
sure you give your favorite players in the game. You
can vote right now at NFL dot com slash Pro
Bowl Vote. Already voted. Did I voted for a number
of Chargers, Casey Hayward. Support your partner here obviously, because

(49:32):
you know, it really affects my job based on how
many guys get into the Pro Bowl. Although I guess
they probably get bonuses in their contract and then they're
in a better mood. So when I'm standing around the
plane because I don't like sitting down, they're nicer to
me when we pass each other. In the end, I'm
with you, fd me into their card games and take
all my money. No, I'm not that stupid. I'm not
that dummy. Let the internet dopes do that. Who I'm

(49:54):
gonna go in the card game with them? I wouldn't
do it. I'm gonna go I got invited, all right,
that's on. You don't come to me when you've got
no pretium left. Let's go to the dogs. The uh
your fantasy futures there, mr, Oh my gosh, I keep
it's hard for me to see it because the font
is so small where it's his fantasy futures on our
Gmail g suite. What do we got fantasy futures? But

(50:14):
some touchdown people and we're gonna all right, you're gonna
rate them on spicy or not? You ready? Um? Yeah,
he has not been great this year. I'll go spice.
I'll go medium, all right, Kenyan Drake. I don't know
what else they got there, So to me, that's uh,
that's still a medium. Uh. If no, I'm gonna say
that's not medium, I'm gonna say that's mild. That's mild.

(50:35):
Who else is going to score for the Miami offense?
I mean, if you had to like pick, if they said, hey, Cynthia,
pick one person who think is gonna score in the
for Miami in the Bills game, you would say, Kenyan, right, yeah,
I mean I think you'd have to so exactly. So
I'll go mild. Okay, fine, all right, well we'll go
a little spicer that I love the mat Lacos pick
and I actually have him. I actually have scoring a touchdown.

(50:56):
So that one that was spicy. What about the I mean,
this was not going to be. That's but I want
to let's go with Ebron and this one it's not
at all spicy, but I want to make sure people
remember him because he's not gone the other the other.
You know, obviously your guy is gone to right. And
then I got me some I got me some Kenny Golladay,
so I got in one positive thing about to try

(51:17):
to say Kenny Golladay is probably mild mild just because
the rams secondary has been getting torched. I know, keep
to leave his back. But fine, Chris Herndon, fine medium,
what that's spicy? Come on, Herman has been good. Herd
has been like a really good tight end sleeper. Nick Vanette,

(51:39):
that's probably spicy. Fine, you should be. You should have
a lot more. There we go. They just finally got
some stuff around here. All right, good that's for you, Cynthia. Okay,
Dogs Vikings Pats Pats favored by five and a half
total forty and a half. Yet you have Patriots Vikings.

(52:00):
Patriots win seventy three point three percent of the simulations.
But it's closer than one might imagine. Um. My note
in here says linebackers all day, So both sides of
the ball here, it's all about linebacker play as kind
of some of the key reasons why, you know, why
the Patriots win, but the Vikings keep it closer. Vikings,
obviously they lost Andrews and Dajo their safety. I know

(52:22):
that's not a linebacker, but it's I'm talking about the
middle of the field here and how it's different, so
that that's a space where Tom Brady middle of field
turns out gronk, you know, all those important things. That's
pretty that's pretty important there. Um. And then on the
other side, um, the way that they've been able to
adapt with Dalvin Cook being back. And you know, last
week I got on the Vikings about the no huddle

(52:42):
and they that they need to one of the ways
to counteract the pass rushes the no huddle, and we
saw them pick it up. So I actually think they
were listening to the podcast and they and they're like, hey,
you know, since said we need to do more, know
how to get rid of this to actually like evade
some of the past rush in New England, that's something
they're gonna need to do. They're gonna need to use
Dalvin Cook there. You need to use their short passaging
and you need to use the you know, the the

(53:03):
Kyle Rudolph situation in order to get those matchups where
they're getting. Look, they're not fixing their old line. It's
not good. They're allowing Kirk Cousins to be pressured a ton.
What they've had to do now is a depth they're
play calling and that's what we've seen them happen. And
by the way, I do not like all of the
Tom Brady is having one of the worst seasons of
his career. Blah blah bah. I don't like those stats.

(53:24):
I'm sorry. I love our research team, but it's in
our research note whatever. But I'm going to tell the offense.
The offense is in the top ten. It's hard. I mean,
I get it. That doesn't he looks he's starting to
look old. I totally get that. Ps because he is.
Julian Edelman was gone for four games. Who are his
receivers he's making. He's spending gold out of like someone's hey, right,
So I think those are people that are watching that

(53:47):
are just going eyeball test because if you do watch, Okay,
it's a little stiff. It just it doesn't look like
the same Tom. But again, it's a you know what,
I saw a Britney Spears. I saw a Britney Spears
concert and she looks a little stiff when she tries
to sort of dance now through the mid section, but
it's still but it's still an awesome concert. Just really,

(54:07):
I mean it was kind of nostalgic. Yeah, but like
the old snake or something, it's a snake. She kind
of nice abs now she's something they paint them. What, yeah,
you didn't know that? Well, why don't they do that
for me? Highron airbrush team come in and that's what
they do for my face before we go. I don't
get airbrushed. Let's be clear. Give me a six pack.

(54:28):
That's what they do. I'm not kidding. Nextually setting, I mean,
I guess I just didn't think she needed it. Jo
that do that before? What's that they don't do that
for j Loo that I don't know. I know that
I asked her nice name dropped, but I asked her
to think, do you I'm like, are these your abs
or no? And she's like these are my app jos

(54:50):
abs real at the superpow. Oh, Tom Brady. Tom Brady's old,
but it's still a top ten offense. Old lay off
and stop it. Give him, give him? You know what.
Here's how about this, Cynthia, this is we can agree
on this one. Okay, well, no, Well know after this game,
this is probably the nastiest defensive front in the Tom Brady.
Let's find out if he can't elude them and the

(55:11):
guy takes a ton of sacks, it'll be like, Okay,
he's a little stiff and that's a little bit of
a concern. So uh, that's that. I mean, we'll know
after this game if he's able to torch the number
one third down defense, one of the best pass rushes,
a defense that is stacked from front to back. You're
totally right, and we'll see is tom this is the
is Tom Brady old ball is the old? Quick? It

(55:33):
happens quick? God? Does that mean my metabolism, Oh, my
metabolism slowed gradually? Okay, I hope minds like a slow
descent because I eat a lot so I'm gonna need
to we need to adjust that you're running marathons too.
Turns out that'll do up a lot of calories. Right,
Let's go Cardinals, Cardinals at Packers. Packers favored by two
touchdowns and the point totals forty four and a half. Okay,

(55:55):
I have the Packers winning. It's not quite two touchdowns,
pretty close. Packers win in eight point four percent of
the simulations. I would add the extra two points just
to make it more than two touchdown. You know what
I'm not. I don't disagree with you from my gut.
I just I just look at from from what we've
seen and the Packers offensive line, injuries and some potential.

(56:17):
It's not a it's not a like. This is how
you can tell I'm not biased, because I definitely like
I've seen it too, right, Like highest winning home percentage
in December of any quarterbacks in the nineteen sixteen and one.
I've seen like all of those stats to you, and
you're right. I mean, look the that defensive line of
the Cardinals. I shouldn't say that defensive line. Chandler Jones
can't flat out get after it. You can try to

(56:37):
double team him. He's still gonna get you. He's still
gonna get after it led the league in sacks last year.
He's in the chase this year, and we know that
that Aaron Rodgers has struggled with pressure this season. So yeah,
and maybe you're right, maybe they I mean, look, I'm
not I'm not suggesting the Packers lose. Let's be clear.
I'm just saying this is another one where I'm gonna
watch this game. I'm going to watch this game, but

(56:58):
I'm not gonna watch it, you know, in terms offense.
Just man, I'll tell you I watched it last week.
This team is terrible. I'm gonna just flat out this
Cardinal team is terrible. Pro Football Focus had an interesting
stat to watch. Aaron Rodgers has been forced to throw
away the ball on forty six past tempts this season.
That's a lot more than the next closest person. That's
the most in the NFL. Interesting to watch going forward

(57:20):
because that just means instead of getting sacked, because he's
been sacked thirty eight times, which is top five in
the league, he's now throwing the ball away um and
he only has one interception, which is the lowest in
the NFL. So instead of taking a sack. He's throwing
the ball away now, but ultimately it's not resulting in
a turnover. Has been better something to watch and keep
it balanced. Yeah, I do think this is a big

(57:42):
Aaron Jones game personally. Yeah, I'm going to my my
gut says, my gut is. My gut is with you.
My math is not. You know what I'm saying. I've
been destroyed by my soul. My soul has been destroyed
by Aaron rod dirts too, So I mean that that

(58:02):
hail Mary hole. Anyways, it's never gonna leave me. Another thrilling,
another thrilling. Titans favored by seven and a half total
forty and a half. What you got, Titans seventeen Titans
winning seventy of these simulations, so it's not really exciting.
Jets no takeaways in five games? Ye, no takeaway takeaway? Right?

(58:25):
Just you know, no big deal. Are all losses and
the longest treak in the NFL. Um Marcus Mariota the
fourth highest completion percentage on in the league. I mean
that's actually kind of a lying number because he only
has the number thirty two, like last in qualified quarterbacks
in passing yards per game, Um, that's that's not great.
But ultimately they're taking care of the ball. They'll find

(58:45):
a way to that. They'll win this this game. It's
in the math, says. The lack of turnovers, along with
the lack of to create turnovers a disruption on their
offense is what solidifies this one. And I'm not even
to get to the wholeheartedly. Yeah, I got very little
to offer. I don't know what the Jets are. I
can't figure it out save a team that is likely
going to undergo a lot of changes this offseason. I

(59:06):
think they have their money. Let's be honest. I sometimes
think people think I don't like Sam Donald. I like
Sam Donald a lot. It's just really hard to win
when your O line has you horizontal a lot. Guess
what I would Uh, this will be my big prediction,
And I said this on the radio show today and
it just kind of came out of my mouth. I

(59:27):
predict that, uh, Cliff Kingsbury will be their head coach
next year. I think that they will. That's like such
a different human being from Todd Bowls a quarterback. Why
not get a dude that discovered Johnny Manziel discovered Baker
Mayfield made case Keena missing to a legitimate NFL quarterback

(59:48):
when he was in Houston. Uh, and not to mention,
oh that's right, he found Pat Mahomes and develop Pat
Mahomes as well. What why don't we hire that guy
to get Sam Donald? Right? Okay, so are you gonna
go super bowled? Here are we doubling down and saying
how many college coaches will be? Will there be a
college coach at both the Browns and the Jets? Yeah?

(01:00:09):
I could totally see. I mean, why not? Why not
hire Lincoln Riley? Right? Right? Why not? Lincoln? You've got
You've got pro coordinators flying into the Norman to sit
with him so he can explain his offense to them.
Multiple guys going to Norman. Wait, wait, you're you know what,
they just want to go to Norman. They're just there.
S mean what I mean? So what if you get

(01:00:30):
it wrong, you fire the guy in two years. If
you get it right, you've got a sub forty year
old head coach that you hope can be your guy
for the next days and gentlemen, when Lincoln Riley and
Cliff Kingsbury are coaching against each other in an inevitable
Bears versus Jets playoff game next season. You can exactly
Browns versus Jets. You heard it here very first, so
much earlier. This is the biggest prediction of our show. Yeah,

(01:00:52):
and it was born out of the idea that Cliff
Kingsbury is going to be the o c at usc
And look if come after me freezing hot takes if
I'm wrong, but that he's really he's gonna go work
for Clay Helton. Cliff Kingsbury is gonna go work for
Clay Helton. Now he's going to be offered a head
coaching job. At the time, I am almost a hundred
percent convinced to that. Alright, where were we Jets type, Redskins, Eagles,

(01:01:15):
money and football Eagles favored by six point total forty
four you have I have the Eagles winning twenty and
the Eagles win outright in fifty eight point nine percent
of the simulations. Ultimately, what the biggest reason here is
is that what the Redskins are deficient in covers up
what the Eagles are deficient in. So the Eagles secondary

(01:01:35):
is a train wreck their number. And then I was
sitting down with someone who's really about five corners. I
think you know, just five, Like, let's talk about five corners.
That's totally fine. Um, when you look when you lose
that many corners and then you're the number of different
defensive looks you can have is just they've Jim Schwartz
is playing like a fraction of what he'd like to

(01:01:57):
be able to play in the coverages. So that really
makes things tough. However, when your entire OH line is
decimated and you don't really have any pass catchers and
you have a quarterback a backup quarterback that you kind
of know their tendencies, that makes it easier for Jim
Schwartz to create a game plan in order to stop
the Redskins. I just I can't buy into the Eagles yet, can't.

(01:02:19):
They struggled so much against the Giants. I know, they
never when they needed it that they got blown. I mean,
they got absolutely wrecked by the Saints. I never I
never like to pick against someone, right, like, but like
you know, I always want to pick four. I'd never
like to pick That's a great point, you know, And
that's a point, and and it's it's just interesting here

(01:02:40):
because in reality, it just seems like the number of
problems on the Eagles is less than the number of
problems on the Redskins. So the Eagles, therefore, are the
ones that are more because they still got Carson Wentz.
They still got a lot of great things on offense.
They're developing more of a run game, they're coming into
their like though, that part is is good, right, like

(01:03:01):
the I think that makes a lot of sense. Don't
don't pick against him. Pick the team that you think
is gonna as a great point, yeah, I mean I
don't have that much faith in the Redskins. All right,
you got speaking of train reck, Redskins stray dog. Here,
here's what we got. Ravens favored by one, but you
live the Falcons. I have a one Falcons win in

(01:03:24):
fifty six point eight percent of the simulation. So it's
not super certain. It's under sixty percent. In fact, it's
under fifty seven percent. I don't think this is going
to be a high scoring game. If the magic line
is is forty nine, I believe it's forty five. Okay,
Well that's where I have, right, Okay, so stay await. Yeah, yeah,

(01:03:46):
I thought we had a little different there anyways. Oh yeah,
because it is forty nine, I have so it's just
written back around the group thing. Forty nine is the
magic number, and I have forty five. So that's fewer
points than you might imagine. So when I broke down
what's going on with the Falcons defense and what's going on, like,
where's what's going on with the Ravens offense, the really

(01:04:07):
biggest place that the Falcons get gash our passes to
running back. So I looked at all the passes to
running backs of less than are equal to ten air yards,
and I went back and I kind of mapped it out,
and I looked at how it would change with Lamar Jackson,
who's a great runner. Don't not taking anything away from him,
but they're very susceptible to the Ravens six point one
yards per reception, lowest in the NFL. They're fifty three

(01:04:28):
or sixty seven on those passes of two running backs
of equal to ten ten less than are equal to
ten air yards. That's not great because that's how the
the Falcons defense has been gashed. Four touchdowns almost eight
yards per reception. That's top half of the NFL. Four
touchdowns into those you know, at that distance is tied
for fifth most in the NFL. So the Ravens don't

(01:04:50):
do the thing that beat the Falcons defense the most.
That makes sense. So that's right, But that also sounds
to me like you're picking against the team. I'm actually
not because because if they don't do what they do best,
and it's well, I guess my point is is Mike
and Dean Jones. First, no, no, no, look the Ravens
that you can give me the business. But Falcons. So

(01:05:12):
the Falcons offense. So it's not like I'm saying like
I'm not picking a crappy offense. Right, Falcons offense has
this guy Julio Jones. He's got Calvin Ridley. You know,
there's there's a lot of good things. And yes, the
Ravens do have the number one lowest catcher allowed to
the fewest lowest catcher in the NFL. But you have
to look at strength. There's a strength weakness versus weakness.
And now you have multiple pass catchers. And by the way,

(01:05:34):
Hulio Jones, I know he hasn't gotten the end zone
as many many times as fans like to say. But
if you look at deep passing alone Baltimore, So if
I'm looked at passes of twenty or more air yards,
and the and the Ravens rank in those deep passes.
So look, I'm just saying Mars won two games. And
it's Cincinnati and it's Oakland. They're two of the worst

(01:05:56):
teams in the league, right, So those are the numbers
from mar For his great as he is, as dynamic
and athletic as he is with his legs, he can't
throw the ball. He's that's just not He's not there yet.
And I think in order to try to keep up,
I've got to believe that. You know, even though defensively
the Falcons aren't, they might get finally back. That would

(01:06:17):
be a big deal to get that, But it's not
you you're talking about short passes to running backs. That's
not necessarily what they're doing now. Mark Jackson doesn't even
look at the running back, like look at his head.
He doesn't look at him. I don't know if nineteen
against the Bengals for a hundred and fifty yards, a
hundred seventy eight yards passing against that's that's just not
gonna do it. It is not. You're gonna have to

(01:06:39):
get more offense than that against the Falcons. And I
have a Julio Jones touchdown, by the way, So there
we go. Yeah, remember that Raiders game. I think it
was what one defense and a special teams touched down.
So you're talking about seventeen game offensively as opposed to
the fourteen points they got on special teams in defense.
You need a little bit more than that. Yeah, I
like it, And with you on that, oh my gosh,

(01:07:01):
I kind of can't believe you either, because might be
we might be the only ones on that. All right,
let's go confidence picks your I got my sheet with
my little highlighted things. I think the Rams win very convincingly.
They just the Rams just are the winners. That's very confident.
I told you there's to be a lot of points
in Cleveland and Houston. That's very confident. I think there's

(01:07:23):
not gonna be a lot of points in Carolina and
Tampa Bay. That's very confident. And Seattle in San Francisco,
I think Seattle wins that one convincingly, very very confident.
Itints Cleveland, Houston over lowest thing. I told you there
was seventy four point five. Okay, Seattle win's big Rams win,

(01:07:44):
big bang bang, Well Seattle, Seattle just wins, rams just win.
That's what I care. You want me to be seven,
you want me to be super high common, So you
don't I'm staying stay away from right, don't win big.
I just say they just win, They just win. You
want me to be super confident. You don't want anything tricky.

(01:08:04):
That's what we're doing here. I'm just trying to figure
out how to interpret it for the people that are
listening and for the people who do things. If the
people want three things, that three things on Seattle winning
but not a big number, not by a big number,
and a lot of points in Cleveland and Houston. And
if you want something spicy, because some people do want

(01:08:26):
something a little spicier, I don't think there's gonna be
as many points as you think in Kansas City in Oakland.
And that one's a high percentage to at sixty eight
point nine, so that's high as well. That's a spicy.
So if you are not a spice if you are
not a spice lever, if you like things bland and
not spicy, if you don't put tapatio on things, then
just take those first three. If you'd like a little spice,

(01:08:47):
go for Kansas City, Oaks like teen Titan Robin exactly.
All right, here we go. Okay, playoffs and you're doing this,
hold on, I want to mention Game day morning. Make
sure you're watching. Cynthia has her play opportunities. She also
does it on Instagram at NFL or at Cynthia Freeling
r E l U n D. Here we go, NFC.

(01:09:08):
We start. I get the obviously makes the really quick
because this one's less exciting. Yeah, this one only has
seven teams that are really in it. And then the
eighth one significant fall off Chiefs Patriots, Steeler sixties seven
you're working in January and fifty nine point nine. The Colts.

(01:09:29):
There's the big one seven seven, and then the next
one the number seven spot, the Ravens seven three, Colts
six spot fifty seven seven, Ravens seven spot fifty seven three,
and then you have the Broncos after that with thirty
seven seven. I think the Broncos are gonna start jumping
up there. I think the Broncos makes I think I
think we're gonna go like straight percentages like if if

(01:09:52):
I think, I think you're right, though, I think the
way it lays out, I think you're right, and that
the Colts are the best team of the three that
are vine for the wild Card, the Broncos, the Ravens,
and the Colts. I do think the Cults are the
best team of those three. And with my newfound UH
decision making process courtesy of you, I'm not picking against teams.
I'm picking the teams that are going to do good things.

(01:10:14):
All right, I'm with you. So here's what I'm gonna
tell you. The Colts have Jags, Texans, Cowboys, Giants, and
Titans left right. So the Texans game is the is
the one that I'm circling to see exactly if they'll
make the playoffs or not. If that that one, and
then the Cowboys game right now, my model, my model

(01:10:34):
has the Cults beating the Cowboys at home, and that's
what drives them staying in that six spot, just so
you know, just because I think nine and seven will
get it. Yeah, I think nine and seven will get
that six spot. So there's room for them to lose one.
And I think the one that they lose is to
the is to the Texans, because I look at the
Broncos and you know what I see, baby Horse Cincinnati

(01:10:57):
at San Francisco Cleveland at home on a Saturday night
at Oakland and then the Chargers to close it out
at home. No less, I'm telling you, really favorable schedule.
I'm with you. I'm with you on that. The only problem,
well not problem, but the only that The only thing
in there that really trips me up is that they

(01:11:19):
have some confounding stats under pressure. And I'm not saying
it's gonna be like Oakland, but confounding stats under pressure,
and if Cleveland pulls us together, they can knock them off.
There are some there are some sneaky, some sneaky splits
that are just very confounding. Yeah, I mean, they just
I guess that's the thing is Denver has not been bad.
You know, they were three six and they were better

(01:11:40):
than a three and sixteen. However, their last two wins
have been very flukey. I'm not saying that because one
of them came against the Charges. It was just a flukey.
When Melvin Gordon runs the wrong way, Philip Rivers dirt
balls a pass and he's one of the smartest quarterbacks
in the league and he makes an absolutely bone headed
play and that just never happens, and that's how they
end up getting the minute fifty three you to drive

(01:12:00):
into field goal range instead of happened just about sixty seconds.
So anyway, so I'm just saying there's some there's some
sneaky splits there. But my nieces who are very like
ten and twelve, they have that, they have the Broncos.
So you know what my nieces could be right all
right to the nfcn Saints, Rams seventy two Bears. Mhm.

(01:12:25):
Then after that, now let's go, I'm gonna have you walk.
This one's funny because number four is the Cowboys with
fifty two point three, and then number five is the
Panthers with fifty four point eight. You gotta you gotta remember.
So what that's telling me here and it's gonna come
to play here in a second about the Eagles is
that there's only gonna be one person from the NFC
East end that makes sense. And then the chance that
it's the Eagles, who right now are at eight spot

(01:12:47):
that like whoever wins that, whoever wins that division, the
other one gets knocked out. So what that means is
that the Carolina Panthers eight, the Minnesota Vikings one, the
Seattle Seahawks fifty nine, and the Green Bay Packers seven.
Those are your true wild card contenders, not you know
what I mean, It's not going to be because right
now the Eagles appear to be forty nine. But that's

(01:13:09):
because they still have pretty good a pretty good chance
of being able to win the division. So it's it's
going to drop out. So what I'm saying is that
it clears the way for the Packers like to make
a significant run at it. I mean, I look at
the remaining schedule and you tell me not favored in one.
I'm telling you I have I ran it for it
was the one they're not favored in is the game
that Aaron Rodgers loves more than anything else in the world,

(01:13:31):
the Bears in Chicago, where he routinely carves the hearts
out of their body, puts it in a paper bag
and hands it to him. The Eagles have to go. Uh,
the Eagles still have to go. Look, the Eagles number
is complete the Rams and host Houston. I'm not saying
that the Eagles are going to win and make it
to the playoffs as a wild card. I'm just saying,

(01:13:52):
if you want to figure out how the Packers get
in right, and by the way, Minnesota and Seattle play
each other in two weeks, right, So Minnesota and Seattle,
that's gonna be a big that's gonna be a big
deal here. And then Panthers they still have to play
the Saints twice. The Panthers have they play the Saints twice.
The Seahawks still have to that's a big deal. The

(01:14:15):
host Kansas City, right, So I'm telling you the Packers
could easily be And that's why on this side, in
this division, there's eight teams and nine teams. So I
say eight because I'm telling you one of the two
between the Cowboys and the Eagles will get knocked out.
So there's truly eight teams that are there are truly
eight teams that could make it into this playoff. It

(01:14:36):
says nine right now, but we're smarter on this podcast.
When you see that number on Instagram, you're not gonna
be tempted to write me a comment that says I'm
a heated because comments they're gonna get back in the kitchen.
Get back in the kitchen, right I will, I'm I'm great,
let's go. I wouldn't mind a nice tart, nice apple tart.

(01:14:56):
I'll make you start I'm going to make a man
of COTTI mena gut Manica. Yeah, it's gonna be great.
All right. That's that Week thirteen game theory and money.
We'll be back next week. UM. Sorry if I went
on too long about it, I don't know what if
I yell about I don't think they really get went off.
I yelled about some kitchen stuff. How would close? Thanks

(01:15:17):
for downloading, streaming listening. We appreciate it. If we can
review and um also rate, that would be fantastic. And
thanks for robble up on social media. Welways appreciate that
all right. For our producer Sean shopping for our enemy
of fund Mark break for your dad, Bill Smith, my dad.
My dad built exactly to get back with you again

(01:15:39):
next week. Anything else? Thank you? Yeah, thanks

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