Game Theory and Money Playoff Predictions & Probabilities

NFL analytics guru Cynthia Frelund is heading into the playoffs on a high note, after nailing 12 of 16 winners in the final week of the regular season. She ran 10-thousand simulations on each of this weeks 4 playoff games and is ready to reveal her winners. Plus she also has the probability of each team making it to the Super Bowl, and the probability each has of winning it! It's all inside this week's Game Theory and Money podcast.

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
Are you ready, Cynthia I was born ready money, Let's go.
Please keep that Welcome to the Game, Theory and Money
Podcast Wildcard Week. We are officially in the postseason. If
you are just checking in because you don't like to
pay attention to your team too close during the regular season,
it freaks you out, you can't handle the stress, and
you've just checked in for the postseason. We'll lucky you. Cynthia.

(00:22):
Here runs ten thousand simulations of every single game to
give you an educated opinion of how everything should play
out and who will advance, what teams will advance to
the divisional round. Now, normally, Cynthia I would say, we
don't like to start with grab bass and we get
to something important. However, there's there's only four games, so

(00:43):
there's really no grabs to be had, and we can
just jump right in, right. We can point out that, uh,
week seventeen, you went twelve and four straight up, you
went twelve and four against the number. But again your
confidence picks not so confident. Um, you know what we
did for the year. Bills told me my years straight
up is one sixty seven, eighty seven and two. That's like,

(01:06):
so we're in good change against the number. That's that's regular.
I don't know if against the number is off the
top of my head, it's it's higher than that. Just
over fifty, just kidding, it's not I had to ask.
Billy's sitting over fifty. That's all right. Over fifty works, yeah,
but yeah, I like that that. We're good with the
take it all right. So here's the way it's gonna work.
We will get things situated for each You don't want
to quit pick then, because I think so, just because

(01:26):
we're already there right postseason. Yeah, we don't need a
quick pick, right. You know what your quick pick is
Freelian favorites. These are the favorites. You like them, the
folks like them, the consensus likes them, and they say
the Ravens are going to beat the Chargers by two
and a half. Gosh, we just come round of the
gaping mean, do you? I just figured right, it's the
I think people are ready, like it's business time, right,
it's tournament time. This unlike the Karate Kid where this

(01:50):
this for real? This no tournament Friday Kid too. This
is tournament and people, but the tournaments like for real,
you know what I mean, I'm like the next karate
kids who we're fine pole, good stinking favorites is what
this is here? The Ravens by two and a half
total forty one and a half. Very low. These two

(02:12):
teams when they first met, it was below forty one
and a half is a matter of fact, it was
just thirty two. So what do we have? Have the
Ravens winning in fifty seven point eight percent of the
simulations the score that's most likely twenty one, which is
more than two and a half, but that only happens
in fifty point seven percent of the sims. So that's
also over forty one point five, but that only happens

(02:32):
in fifty four point six. That only happens at fifty.
This is pretty tight. I mean normally when we see
confident you know, conclusions from your model, it's north of
seventy maybe north of like sixty seven. Sixty eight is
is where I typically see the ones where you're like, hey,
I feel really good about this. This is pretty low, right, Yeah,
Like if you look to see the my confidence picks

(02:53):
and the anything that was over sixty for the season
is like a very it's a very nice number. I'll
get those. I'll make Bill give then before us in
a second. But anything under sixty percent is it's not
as it's not as certain obviously, So this is this
is a much closer game. Look, you nailed it last
week with the interior of the old line for the
Chargers has been a problem. And obviously last time and

(03:14):
you go back, it wasn't that long ago. Rivers was
pressured on his drop backs, so that's a big problem. Now.
I will say in this one, you get healthy love
and Gordon, you get Austin Ekeler, presumably healthy and presumably
healthy Keenan Allen. You probably know more than me how
healthy they look or how healthy they are. But getting
those three pieces are back. Um, Melbourne's not. I don't

(03:35):
think he says he is, but I think that's what
you have to say going into a playoff game, right.
But percent that was a stinger. It was concussion protocol.
He said that was more precautionary than anything. And just
watching him against Denver, he looked great. He looked like
the old Austin Ekeler, patient to the whole uh and
once he exploded around that corner. I don't know how
many people are watching the Charger Denver game that had
no bearing on the postseason, but he showed that explosion

(03:58):
turned the corner and was gone for forty one yards.
And I think having that, especially when you look at
the success rate of the Chargers when they deployed both
of them at the same time, that's how you neigate
that pressure up the middle and you get the Ravens
to have to be a half step slow because you've
got Philip who can dump it off over those rush
ends to Gordon or Eckler and get them in one
on one situation. So you know, you just pointed out

(04:20):
that those two are healthy. That's a big, big deer
going into this one that that wasn't there on Saturday.
The only problem is in the real reason, like part
of the reason the Ravens win. Obviously, look, you have
to get Philip Rivers going to give to give anything
for the Charger's offense work. But if you go on
kind of what happens when you when you look at
the Chargers defense, they played dime a really high percentage,

(04:41):
something like six, which is kind of an advantage for
Lamar Jackson in his running situation because he gets a
few extra yards or yards and he has the option
to either throw the ball or keep it right, so
that that kind of thing is kind of the advantage
that gives them the opportunity to control the pace of
the game and rely on their defense to relate, just

(05:01):
to keep it at least close, if not sneak ahead
of the charters. Yeah, they I mean it was an
interesting game, right, because the Chargers were terrible. I mean,
it was their worst game. It's really unlucky stuff that
happened to write bad penalties, um, but I mean they
were dominated. They their offense was completely dominated by that defense.
And yet they had the ball with the first and

(05:23):
ten at the Baltimore thirty nine, with three minutes left,
a two minute warning on all three time outs, and
on the first play from scrimmage they got Melvin Gordon
Russian left edge for eight yards and a pretty ticky
tack holding call that then put him into a first
and twenty And you can't go first and twenty against
that Ravens defense. And that's when it fell apart, right,
So what I'm getting at is that defense they solved

(05:44):
the riddle. I mean they Lamar Jackson only rushed for
thirty nine yards and one of those was an eighteen
yard run. So think about take that and then and
I know this this is because I'm the voice of
the Chargers. This is gonna sound like I'm making excuses,
but I'm just saying, if you take that game as
a total, right, you've got Lamar who only for thirty nine,
You've got a rushing total that outside of Gus Edwards

(06:04):
first carry from scrimmage after Philip Rivers through an interception
on the first play, and the whole team was shell
shocked and they were like, holy crap, really, Gus Edwards
rushes for forty three yards if you take that one
run out, just that one Gus Edwards run out, they
rushed for three point six yards per carry. So the
defense they were fine, like they were good. The problem

(06:25):
was that the offense could do nothing. So the big
question for me is do they have a solution for
those guards for scho Field and Feenie and are they
going to be able to slow down those stunts and
his pounds are gonna be able to give help where
he needs to? Are they going to make adjustments on
the picks and the stunts and the delayed blitz is
that the Ravens run, because if they don't they're not

(06:45):
gonna win that game, but if they do have a
fix there, I believe this defense certainly proved that they
know how to contain that Baltimore offense, especially when they
made their adjustments going in the second half. They got
three and ounce when they needed them to get that
ball back to their offense to try to win that
game with three minutes left. So I've read an article
for NFL dot com about like one strength and one

(07:05):
area of concern for each of the playoff teams, and
you can go read it if you want have time. Um,
and I was actually not surprised, but it was pretty
cool to learn that the net influence of the sum
of all of the wide receivers for the Chargers, so
Keenan Allen plus Tyrell Williams plus Mike Williams altogether their
wide receiver production, so earning first downs and changing the

(07:26):
space of the defense so that the run game can
be successful, their net production was the highest in the NFL.
I mean, I was just I was a little I
would I think it's totally shocked, but you know, I was.
It was a little I thought that because they have
everything right, you have Tyrrell who can take the top
off of defense, you have Keenan, who's probably the best
not probably is the best route runner in the league.
And then you have also good he's also really strong

(07:49):
and contested balls. Well that's and you know what. The
other thing too about Keenan is that that nobody talks
about because really nobody does it anymore, um is he's
the best blocking wide receiver in the league. He's thrives
in run blocking. It's like his favorite thing to do.
So against a team like the Ravens, who's the best
tackling team in the league, when you have a wide
receiver that's willing to sacrifice like that and is out

(08:11):
there land blocks on second because their secondary can straight tackle,
I mean, Jefferson and Wettle are great, and if you
can get Keenan on one of those guys because he's
six pounds, that gives you an advantage. But I mean, look,
it's gonna really have to break right for for the
Chargers to get out with a win. But at the
same time, I think their defense is showed. If you
guys can just be average, you know, if the offense

(08:33):
can just be average, we feel like we got this
thing kind of sorted out now. The one hiccup just quickly,
and I know I'm talking a lot. You're good. This
is the game you know the most about. This isetting better.
There's no better analysis here. So the one thing that
I'll tell you is the the one issue that they
have to solve is they have Hayeste Pillard playing the

(08:55):
middle linebacker position. So not only are they down there
number one middle linebacker, Denzel Paraman, but they are down there.
They're down there number two middle linebacker now with Tavis
Brown going out, and they've got a guy who was
unemployed until week seven who was manning the position that's
asked to spy Lamar Jackson. The problem is that that's
an issue. So even with Lamar Jackson having his lowest

(09:17):
rushing output in terms of efficiency, this the fact that
they like, they stay committed to it. They kept using
it and they gave him options to run or pass.
So sometimes like straight averages aren't the best way to
look at it, right like, you have to look at
the opportunity it created like holistically, So even if even
though he hadn't had the best they didn't abandon the run.
Obviously the run is the way that they're most successful.

(09:39):
But it's it's again like how can you make them
really one dimensional? Can they make can you know, can
the Chargers make Lamar Jackson's running and passing and even
if rushing average, forcing the pass make it more undimenial
so he's forced to not even you know what I mean,
Like it is a low it was the lowest output, right,
it's I think, you know, I think the way the

(10:00):
way the Chargers win this game is they have to
buck a trend that unfortunately has dogged them all season.
They have to start fast. You've got you have got
to force the Ravens to get away from what they're
comfortable doing. And that's like, think about this the Chargers.
That the Ravens had a drive. It's the craziest thing
I've ever seen. There were no there I think there was.
I don't think there were any penalties. They had an

(10:21):
eleven play, five minute drive that went thirty one yards.
That's crazy. Eleven plays, five minutes thirty one that's like
first and ten, second and eight, third and four and
you get five yards and then you go two yards,
then you go three yards, then you go six. I
mean that's what that is. And that's the one thing

(10:43):
and that's why people don't run this offense, because when
you run that many plays to go that small of
a distance, you invite opportunity for negative place for penalties
for turnovers, especially when you're running mesh and bone turnovers
on those options. So if you can get out to
a ten point lead, let's say in the first half,
and you forced them to get out of any team,

(11:04):
if any team can do right, that's the key to
beating them. As a jump to jump out to an
early surprise, their defense score some points because their defense
gets better as they can adjust to you, so that
that's not gonna they can really lean on a team
their defense. Something behind me, there's color bars, because we're
waiting to like figure out who use startled with the
color bars. I was like, what is that. I'm old

(11:26):
enough to remember waking up too early for Saturday morning
cartoons and just staring at the color bars until all
of a sudden, the star spangled banner came on with
a flag waving, and then I got myself to wake
And that's I've always been an early riser. But anyway,
for our older listeners, the old man here hearkening back
to some nostalgia. I love it, now you don't, I do. Actually,

(11:50):
Eagles it Bears, It Bears Bears by five and a half.
You have what I have, Bears winning in sixty one
percent of simulations and the scoring get Bears seven Eagles
twenty one. So that's more than five and a half.
It is also more than the key point total of
forty one. In fact, it is over. Yeah, I was

(12:14):
about to say share what I think a lot of
people are taking the Eagles in this one. Um, I
was not shishing you. I have the hiccups and I
was trying to mask my hiccupping by going ship and
you have to like swallow and plug yourrors at the
same time. That's that'll fix it. Or I just have
to have some color bars appear and scare the hell

(12:35):
out of me and then they'll go on right. Um, Look,
the difference is when you map out both of these
teams and yeah we've seen Look there's magic with Fold absolutely,
but their secondary is still a problem. I know we
keep seeing it and they keep winning games. But when
you look to see how like this these two things
stack up against each other. Both the fronts and fronts

(12:56):
are excellent, and really what we see in Trabiski do
a short passes, he's he's completed eight of ten or
fewer air yard passes over the past five games, are
actually for the whole season rather, so look for Cherie
Cohen to be kind of the antidote to the Fletcher Cox,
to the pressure that's coming up from a lot of
different directions. Because the Eagles secondary gives up the highest

(13:18):
completion percentage in their losses, like I mean crazy like that,
So you can sells target this depleted secondary. There's a
lot of similarities in terms of, look, we have Naggie,
we have Doug Peterson. They're Andy Reid people. They're very
familiar with each other. You know, it's it's going to be.
It's not going to be a situation where like they're

(13:39):
so surprised that Folds is suddenly good. In fact, when
you look back over the season, the Eagles were in
twelve seven point or fewer games and they went six
and six and them So what this really tells me
is that complementary football is really a must for them.
And what Folds did by completing just a few more
passes and being just a little bit more accurate and
spreading the ball around that offense. That's kind of the

(14:00):
tipping point because it's not like they were really getting
blown out. Yes they got blown out by the Saints,
but they weren't really getting blown out by these other teams.
So really it's going to be this matter of this
chess match of like the total defense and the Bears
defense is the most turnovers are takeaways rather in the NFL,
and Folds has given up an interception is each of
us three starts. So they just don't match up well

(14:22):
from a standpoint of like they're just a little bit better.
The Bears defense is just a little bit better than
what what the Eagles have been able to do. To
to be my here's my thing, you know, I I
know he's had those an interception at least in each game, right,
but but the Bears will make you pay for they will.

(14:44):
But he was also exceptional in those Yeah. Absolutely no,
I'm taking nothing away from him, taking nothing away even
though he had the pick, he did have four touchdowns
against the Texans. He did have I think he completed
what straight passes? Um, So, like, good luck do you
not against the Bears? Right? I guess that's that's where
that that's what I'm getting to right. So now I
think I need to reconcile if I want to, if

(15:06):
I have to put my name on who's gonna win
this game? Do I believe in Mitch Drabinsky even though
the Eagles secondary is depleted? Do I believe that Mitch
Drabinsky can win a playoff game based on Wait, you
need to say, do I believe Do you think that
Matt Neggie can scheme just a little bit more and
rely on that defense? Right? Well, I think if the

(15:28):
if the Eagles blow up that defense for some reason,
then what you do. But but that's what he hasn't
a deep passed, he hasn't asked to DePass right on
first and second down. He throws fifty percent of the time,
he passes fifty percent at the time. So what they're
really taking an advantage of is the fact that look
like on first down, I can disguise the pass as
a run. I can disguise a run as a pass.
I can do all these sort of tricks to keep

(15:49):
shorter gains and keep that going. That's why that's to me.
Why you know, Look, then Trabinsky gets dinged for being
a first read quarterback. So if it's not his first read.
He's not accurate with with passes. And I don't know
if that's true or not. I don't know his first
read is supposed to be. But I do know that
they don't set him up. They don't ask him to
do very complicated offenses. They don't ask him to do

(16:12):
very complicated passing schemes. But and and that's kind of
good because the Eagles against the past have been really
you know, vulnerable. Yeah. Look, I think everybody knows that
he's a one read quarterback. It's just what he's been.
But like, I don't know what that means, you know
what I mean? Like, what mean? Yeah? I mean if
his first read isn't there, he's either talking it and
running or the paper the play blows up now, So

(16:33):
I totally get that, but we don't know his first read.
This is my thing is like I think it's probably
that he they don't ask him to do a lot.
He's not used to doing a lot. They don't The
development isn't there yet. I don't know if he's always
going to be this first record they like, I don't know.
I guess they just have hard It's just if you're
a defense and you can scheme against a guy who
is not able to work through progressions or when a

(16:55):
pocket gets muddied, you know, and you know he's just
gonna talk it and run. It's easier to scheme against. Now,
what the point you make is is solid though, and
that is you've got a pretty bright head coach that
is still able to overcome those limitations. So that's that's
kind of what you're betting on, right, is that you know,
even though Traubinsky has been limited and he's he's been

(17:17):
good enough. Even though he hasn't been great, he's been good.
When you have a defense that's that good. Look, Rex
Grossman went to a Super Bowl with a dominant defense,
right because the Bears defense was that good. Trent Dilford
went with a dominant defense because the defense was that good. Um,
and I guess you're asking, Okay, have a TV career
after you know, that's the real question. I guess just

(17:39):
because people hated him too much because that that team
was so good, which is it's it's a shame. It's
not his fault, right, I mean, you know, whatever you
get drafted in the first round, you go out here anyway,
what I'm saying is do you believe in the Bears
Bears de Flint Bears defense plus limited offense with a
good play caller or Super Bowl MVP quarterback who has

(18:02):
found some magic, who has rekindled the magic that over Yes,
but it's just like yard passing performance from Tom Brady
and this guy was able to overcome it. I mean,
that's crazy that that that the Patriots had five hundred
yards of offense and a backup was able to outduel
arguably the greatest quarterback in the history of the game.

(18:24):
And then with a season that is lost, there's no
chance the Eagles are making the playoffs after they lose
to the Cowboys. Right boom, this guy comes in and
is just freaking and it's not Look, it's not something
that's you can't quantify it, which is why it makes
stuff for the model. Right, But it's just right. I

(18:46):
love some look when you ask when you ask a
friend of the podcast, Chug Peterson, when you ask him
like what's going on? And when you talk to people there,
it's like there's less chirping right there, not sitting there
being like give me the ball, I need, you know,
I need to throw. And Nick Foles kind of doesn't like,
that's not his personality, whereas like Carson Wentz wants to
make people happy. So it's it's a little bit that's

(19:06):
kind of something that we can't quantify and whatever, but
it's a good note, right, Like they're more, they're being
less like throwing the ball, I'm open, blah blah blah,
like none of that, like yelling that bad energy or
whatever you want to call it. But ultimately it's like,
you know, they're working together. It's a team a little
bit more and functioning as a more cohesive unit, which
is pretty interesting because remember in those first few games
this season, nick Fole didn't look like this, right, So

(19:28):
it's just totally struggled against the Falcons for sure, even
though they won that game. But further from Christmas, we
get the worst he gets. He has had of his
five games, right of or he played six five, I
think of his five games, he has completed over sevent
his passes in four of them, you know, I mean,
and that's like you were like we're talking about rabiski, right,

(19:49):
just you can't go broke taking a profit. You can
dink and dunk your way down that field on that
Bears defense. You can get some more p o s
and you can push it downfield and get that big
play you need. And I guess it's kind of a
similar thing to Lamar Jackson, right. Forced the Bears to
have to use Mitch Drabinsky is what the Eagles have
to do for forced them to not just be able

(20:11):
to navigate his limitations, but actually have to use him
to win a game. And so who are you taking?
Do it? I like, damn, I'm taking I think this
is a week where all I think three of the
four wild card teams are gonna win. I don't know
which three. I don't know which three, but I think, no,

(20:31):
I don't know, I don't know. I would like, you know,
I mean, it's hard to pick the Chargers right after
they lost twenty two to ten in their offense was
completely shut down. I mean, they may be the one loss.
I mean, I'm not gonna obviously I'm not gonna pick
that game. But but but I think I think this
is a tough pull for the Bears. If I were them,
I would have laid down against the Vikings. That's that's
honestly what I would have done. That That is that
is acent the approach that I would have taken. I

(20:52):
would want nothing to do with Nick Foles and what
this Eagle's team is doing. Right now, Well, there you go.
But you disagree. I disagree. I mean, and look, it's
not it makes There's nothing wrong with that defense, right
that creates turnovers and capitalizes off turnovers. There's nothing wrong
with saying, look, I believe in that defense. It's that good.

(21:14):
I mean, it is a dominant if I have to
tell you from my gut, like I don't pick from
my gut. I picked from the model, right, So this
is what the model says. So this is my This
is a lot of hard work. So like, obviously that's
that's how I gotta do it. But I'm kind of
with you in the sense of, like I do think
that they thrive with that underdog. They work together as
a unit better. Their online is great, by the way,
and they don't get enough shine. But ultimately, when it

(21:35):
comes down to me for this one, it's like I
think it's gonna be a close game. I would think
more of like a close Bears like maybe like a
three point Bears win. That's kind of how I feel.
It's like I would be less like Mike's like, gut surprise.
It was like seventeen fourteen Bears, you know what I mean? Like,
I don't like. I was surprised at how high the
number was. I was surprised at the confidence in the
height of the number, and I was surprised at six points.

(21:57):
So but again this is what this is what we got.
Defensive pressures mean to make a huge difference. So in
this one, that's a big deal. The one thing that
sticks out to me is the forty Niners game. I
think because I was I was alright with the Bears.
I was like, look, every time I've tried to doubt them, Dave,
They've shown, you know, rams they were able to dictate

(22:17):
terms and made Jared Goff look like two thousand sixteen
Jared Goff against the Packers. When I thought they were
going to fold against Aaron Rodgers, what do they do?
They dominated that game, um created turnovers. But the Niners game,
I was like, oh boy, this is a game they
have to win to keep their hopes and and it
was shaky, you know, and that's where But then then

(22:37):
they come back and they knockout of Vikings team that
had to win to make the postseason. That was a
dominant game. To like that dominant, it was a boring
game from the standpoint of like, like there was no
drama and with the last minute win, right, it was
like they came out strong the middle they were strong
and in the end also strong. So I mean it
was not if you're a Bears fan, but if you're

(22:57):
Coding fan, I was like, oh, it's take a difference
is much more important rama person. You know as well,
enough of my freaking ramblings. I will, uh, we we differ.
We take the and I assume I'll differ on the
first one from you as well. So there we go.
The take the two dogs. Now, you like the dogs
Cowboys by two and a half over the Seahawks, and

(23:20):
you like, so I like the Cowboys to win, but
I don't like it to be by as big of
an amount. So Cowboys win in fifty four point seven
percent of the simulations, and the score have is twenty three.
So look, stay for me, it's stay away from the total.
Just worry about the Cowboys winning. That's more certain because
that three point win is fifty one point three percent

(23:42):
of the simulations, which is not very high. So that's
slightly over that forty one and a half number. That's
only fifty three point nine percent of simulations. So my
point is it is gonna be a close game and
there's a potential for over but not a huge one. Okay,
So what is it that stands out? So this game
comes down to the whole thing is all about running, right,
Like which team is going to be able to stop

(24:03):
the other one's dominant run situation? Right, So obviously the
Seahawks enter of the game with the league's number one
running rushing offense. There are Seahawks. Seahawks enter with the
league's number one rushing offense. And there's some fun stat
that our research department found. It's like thirty of thirty
six number one rushing offenses made it to at least
the divisional round, which I think is a fun stat

(24:23):
to tell your friends. But right, but they didn't necessarily
have to play the Cowboys and Laton Vanderesh and um
their defensive front and with their OH line. So the
Seahawks O line has been it's kind of been masked
at how bad it is. And they're they're very poores, right,
So Russell Wilson's magic and their run game. Their scheme

(24:44):
for their run game has also been magical for them,
so both of those things are really good. Those big
plays are really key. I seventy seven rushes of ten
plus that's how they've been doing it, and then forty
seven passes of twenty plus, so big plays, ten plus rushes,
twenty plus passes. You add them together. Number three and
big plays in the NFL. The problem is is with
a guy like Vanderesh who didn't play in their week
one or three week three matchups of their first matchup

(25:07):
a long time ago. With him and the way Jalen
Smith have been operating together, the opportunity to run on
them is not going to be as great, which will
also lead to less favorable passing situations, which means the
opportunity for a big place is going to be diminished
for Russell Wilson. I'm not saying Russell Wilson isn't magic.
He has fifteen rushes of ten plus alone, so seventy
seven of their seventy seven fifteen belong to Russell Wilson.

(25:29):
But running on the Cowboys is not the same as
running on the forty nine or running on the Rams.
Right now, that's a great point because if you go
through their opponents, they didn't really face a stout run
d um. I guess you could maybe say the Vikings
to some degree that they dominated, they dominated time of possession.
They one that came twenty one to seven. Chris Carson

(25:50):
miss a thing. I think the hard it's hard to
project because the week that they beat the Cowboys, I
know that Vandereshan you know, was playing and Jail Smith
wasn't looking exactly, But also I don't think they had
yet to find their identity like they did not you know,
in week three, they were not the we're gonna run
the ball of the times between the tackle because our

(26:12):
old line is bad at pass blocking, but they're pretty
darn good at run blocking. So let's lean on that
and make it a strength instead of a weakness. They
didn't quite find that until about week five, So I
think it's kind of hard to figure out and which
they may have completely dominant, which running back are you
preparing for it to write like some blend of all three? Right?

(26:33):
And that's that's the one thing to remember. That's what
the Eagles did last year. They were able to and
you're talking about a trio of backs that is much
more talented than the trio the Eagles had last year
with small Wood, Clement and a Gy. When you have Carson,
actually I should know what I shouldn't say that. But
the thing about the Seahawks, I think in their trio
of runners in in Carson and Penny, is they're just

(26:55):
they're so committed to it. Like that's that's what's so
intriguing to me about it. Is they'll go five carries
in a row for two yards, two yards, and they'll
just keep going and before you know what, they're busting
one for twenty yards. And it's it's just like watching
football and you know when they had Marshawn Lynch and
it's like, whatever, man, we're gonna stuff in his gut.
And I know you stopped in the previous two times,

(27:16):
but here he goes for twelve yards and that's what
it's reminiscent of. And it's it's so deflating. That's what's
tough about playing them is you're like, okay, we got them.
You know it's third and eight. Oh, they just ran
off right tackle for twelve yards. S ob you know,
now we're screwed. Well, you know the other team that
kind of does that too rate, right, that's what styles
make the fight, right, and here we are. So the

(27:36):
thing that everybody talks about is how bad Seattle's run defenses.
And you're right at the beginning of the season, if
you were to look at their yards per Russia and
their yards per Russian on first sound, specifically in weeks.
In their first eleven games, they averaged five point five
yards per Russian first and second down, so that was
the worst in the NFL. But if their past five games,
they've gotten that down to zero. Now, one of those

(27:57):
games was Kansas City too. There were someone's like they
played the Niners twice, they played you know they it
wasn't and they played the Cardinals in one of them,
so it wasn't the craziest rushing offenses possible. But the
run defense is getting better at the right time. They've
allowed no touchdowns in their last five minutes, no rushing
touchdowns in their last five games. And what's happened is

(28:17):
is being a little bit better on the on first
and second down. So they're down to only four yards
per rush all out on first and second down. This
actually helped their pressures go up. So Seattle now has
the most quarterback hits in the NFL. There, the third
most on third down in the past five games quarterback hits,
and fifty one overall in their past five games. So
what's happened is is they have been able to get
pressure for So if they're going to be able to

(28:38):
keep that keep that run, be good, like stop Zeke
and really limit his effectiveness and then get some pressure
to doac That would be the formula for Seattle winning
this game. But my model, especially with Tyron Smith playing
presumably and we've got Zack Martin back again presumably just
based on the latest injury report, that just changes the

(28:59):
whole ability to like really gain those you know, those
first downs, because remember, Zeke has the most yards after
contact in the league. I think it's like nine fifty
per PFF. And then Bobby Wagner, who's gonna be on
the other side. Bobby Wagner, he has I think one
miss tackled per PFF, which is you know, pretty darn good,
only missing one tackle on the ear end by the

(29:20):
way kJ writes back in this one. So it's gonna
be it's chess match between the two, like who's run
games gonna work, right, and if you had to pick one,
what would you rather have that old line in Zeke
or the other old line and Chris Carson obviously you'd
rather have. Rather can I put Russell Wilson and everything?
And then can I put Russell Wilson on the Cowboys?
Because then then I'm good? How about that? See, that's

(29:41):
that's what you just kind of that that's the point
that you just brought me to, which is it's not
that simple because Russell Wilson's back there and you just
mentioned how much do you mean Russell Wilson through thirty
five touchdown passes? That's crazy. The guy he he didn't
he attempted like four red throws. I mean he had

(30:04):
oft seven were for more than twenty yards. That's you know,
he's always special. But at some point, if you have
there at the Cowboys, if you have to Marcus Lawrence,
if you have that that front and you're and you're
so you're putting you in obvious passing situations, at some
point it's going to be just too much. Like as
elite as Russell Wilson is, there's just a point where

(30:26):
a really dominant defensive front and no ability like if
they limit their ability to rush if they live them
with the rushing efficiency, and he's an obvious passing situations
that's going to be hard even for someone as elite
as Russell Wilson, who, by the way, not only is
his like performance lead, his staying on the field is
elite like his I mean lack of injuries. Like Russell
Wilson actually probably employed my Weather Jr. The guy never

(30:48):
takes a square hit. He's never It's crazy. He's really impressed.
Like I I liked him before. I was thought it
was one of the top top quarterbacks. So this season,
especially like with all these kids on his team. And
I say that because I think they're the second on
his team in the whole league, that these kids on
the team, like he's figured it out. Like you know,
I think he's sometimes I think he's cheesy, but that's

(31:08):
beside the point. This year I've I've really started to
like be I think this this is this is how
I'll put it to you right going back to my
I think all four wild card teams could win, or
three or the four or all four. I don't know
if if it's a tight game like to me, to me,
the Cowboys got to which they they have to build
a lead. Like if you if the model says that

(31:28):
this is like game, you know what I mean, Like,
then I'm going Russell Wilson. If if you think that
Zeke can take this game over and that defensive line
can assert their dominance and can start pushing on them
and and dominating time of possession and scoring touchdowns and
not field goals, then I'm all right with the Cowboys.
But when the model spits out, hey, it's a tight

(31:49):
one and it's three or whatever, then I'm leaning on Wilson.
I'm not leaning on Dec and that's fair. Maybe that's
not fair, but I'm not leaving on that guy to
win a game. Like I mean, I did watch Dec
throw four touchdown passes against the Giants team that was
you know headed In Week seventeen, O'Dell Beckan wants to
be traded? Is Eli Manning coming back? You know? You

(32:10):
know what I mean? It's just but but sometimes chaos
like that is like almost hard at RK because and
you don't know what to expect at all. They're not
like no, he looked and Dak has not has had
like what three maybe four? Really he's had like two
really bad games and two pretty bad games, and for
the other twelve he's been great, Like he's been solid
for all of the incoming he took whatever. When they

(32:30):
wanted to fire Jason Garrett, it looked like the Cowboys
were on the cusp of another loss of reason. It's like, right,
it's like really good. If you look through his game
I'm gonna pull up his game lugs right here. Let's see,
he's got there's one four, one sixty six and a
sixty four. Every other game he's had a pass rating
in the nineties or one hundreds. He's been you know,

(32:51):
so so he's just unfairly taking criticism when he's been solid.
I mean, is the Cowboys they always do that, right,
There's a few things you can count in every year
you can count and show only getting hurt. You can
count on we're potentially talking about getting fired. We can
I mean, you can count on Jason Garrett potentially getting
fired at some point during the season. And then like
all in the end, it's like, oh, we love everybody,

(33:12):
we're cool. Yeah, we won, we won the division. We
get a home game. But if they lose in the
first John, guess what, they all stink it. Everyone deserves
to be fired, right, that's much more fun. I'll take
Seattle perfect. All right, this is the one we call
the stray dog Colts of Texans. Texans by two and
you have the Colts. Of course, of course have the

(33:33):
Colts winning five. For some of the simulations, it is
a close one three so three points different from other people. Uh,
And that happens fifty nine point six percent of the simulations,
and it's a lower scoring game, slightly than most people
think fifty of the time. I'm with you Colts last week.

(33:54):
I have like the Colts, you know, through this whole
dominating run that they've been on. I just dive leave
that highly in that in those two lines, the offensive
a defensive line, specifically Andrew Luck and the level that
he's playing at um. I just you know, the problem
with the Texans that offensive line is so leaky, and
I think that's it's just it's it's a it's a

(34:16):
bad matchup for them. It just is. You know, some
of these matchups don't bode well for one opponent over
the other. I think it's a tough matchup for the
Chargers and the Ravens. I think it's a tough matchup
for the Texans and the Colts. I just think these
two teams, this is probably the they most definitely did
not want to see, the Colts that that wild card
team they were looking for exactly. Yeah, I mean, look,

(34:37):
here's here's the thing, because both when you look at
the Texans, you look to see the thing that stands
out is that on first down they stopped the run
two point two yards per russia out in their past
five games. Two point six yards per rush allowed on
any down over the past five games. That's awesome. That
usually sets you up for a lot of success. But
in this one, here's something where the matchup is like

(35:00):
in favor of the Cults, right, Well, if you look
to see how many yards per play they give up
on first down, well, the Texans defense gives up six
point six yards per planned first down. So if it's
two point two to the run, what that's telling me
is that you can pass on them on first down.
And you know who's really good at play action on
first down? Excellent? This guy from Stanford. He's an interesting beard.

(35:24):
He's an interesting beard. Yeah, he's pretty smart. So that
that's kind of that one to me was like, well,
that's how you get past That's how you stay away
from J. J. Watt, Davian Clowney, Whitney Merciless, and that's
how you get past them and and really really work
your O line to your advantage because they have a
great old line. Ryan Kelly the center says he's back.

(35:45):
That seems good. They've got the league's best third down percentage.
It's forty eight point six percent, which is great. So
in this one, it's those look for play action on
first down to be a real game changer for Luck. Yeah,
it's tough, right because we say, oh, look how great
the Colts have been lately. Okay, well all the Texans
have done is after all and three start you know,

(36:07):
gone eleven and eleven and two. I'm taking nothing away
from them. But here's the problem. So now you have
other than DeAndre Hopkins. Yes, you have kiki QT which
is fun for fantasy, but their wide receiving corps has
no depth k q T. And then like three other
guys that are very new or journeyman who doesn't have
a ton of snaps like this is not a great situation.

(36:29):
They're tight end situation is not great. They've asked Lamar
Miller to do a lot for them. Lamar Miller, who
does he have to face in this one number fifty
three our favorite player, Darius Leonard maybe, like i''m gonna
see how to get him on the pod. We're gonna
get him on the p um so. But the point
is is like it just doesn't match up like the
ways that they've been winning, and yet Deshaun Watson special.

(36:49):
But Deshaun Watson under pressure, which this old line can break,
is not good news. And even if you have DeAndre Hopkins,
who I would argue is probably the best, you think
it's Keenan Allen, I'm gonna go with DeAndre Hopkins for
his ability to create. Maybe it's not specifically route running,
but I think his route running is pretty great. But
his his ability to adjust and create when the ball
isn't necessarily thrown exactly where he anticipated it, that's special.

(37:12):
So not taking nothing away from those two, just who else?
Who else is gonna help else? Yeah? Who else is
going to help them? Right? And that's I think for me,
I just look at like again, I've focused on quarterbacks
right this whole time, Russell Wilson versus Dac you know Phil,
you know the defense against Lamar Jackson and what they
were able to do against him. Um, and and for

(37:33):
this one, look at the two games I just pulled
him up. Look at the two games between the Texans
and the Colts. Andrew Luck his combined numbers sixty seven
for a hundred and three passing for six touchdowns and
one pick. And that that's what he's done against this

(37:54):
top five defense that knows him. Yeah, that knows him
that well, right there, it's a divisional opponent in it
they know him well. Six touchdowns, one pick he has
thrown off. He's averaging fifty passes per game. And they
should have won that first game had they not gone
for it on that fourth down on their own side
that ended up giving the game away to the still

(38:15):
favorite player of the season. Oh yeah, So that's uh,
that that's that's where I mean. I just it seems
like Luck is able to navigate the obstacles that this
defense presents. Uh. Both teams are playing great. I just
I mean, what do they always say in the playoffs, right,
the games are one on your lines and that offensive

(38:35):
line travels. Hey defense is the defense is fine for
the offensive line, but they don't. They're not traveling though
they're not true. That's what I'm that's that's a problem.
But that offensive line is terrible, and uh, it's it's
been it's been bad all year and it's I just
don't see how you can. I don't see how home

(38:58):
Field is somehow going to make up for for what's
been a super leaky offensive line that's gotten Deshaun Watson
have the crap kicked out of them all season long. Yeah,
it's not good. No, alright, So we agree on the Colts.
You're taking the charter as I'm taking the Ravens. You're
taking the Seahawks. I'm taking the Cowboys and the Eagles,

(39:20):
and I'm taking the Bears. Fantastic. We only agree on one.
I love it right, And you mentioned you have articles
going your strength an area of concern for each team. Um,
and you also have confidence picks. You want to do that? Okay, Yeah,
we're gonna do it. Yeah, you know what before you
do that? Here, this is for shoppy. Let's see alright,

(39:45):
one Captain Andrew luck tweet dees mother celebration festivity as well.
Might but briefe and we begin on watch to Houston
thrist battle to tass each unit has a victory over
the other. We shall drill among bulls to better understand

(40:06):
that tactics. I am equal parts confident and anxious. Andrew,
there we go. Whoever runs that account, it's the best.
It's my favorite winter account. It is. It is my favorite.
There was actually one that that was my favorite of

(40:27):
Let me see, let me see, let me see, here
we go. Um no, that's not it. See now just
meandering here? It is so remember they remember they shut
out the cowboys? Right? Three? Nothing? I think it's the score.
This is my favorite one of the year. Dearest mother.
My hand trembles with excitement as I ride to tell

(40:48):
you the unit was victorious over the posse of cowboys.
In fact, we walked away completely unscathed, truly magnificent. There
remains a chance our campaign lengthens a Mama, this thought,
I love you, Andrew. That's the best one of the
he walked away completely unscathed. I like the I love

(41:08):
you and Andrew. Alright, confidence picks, you're two, you're to
uh your too. Confidence picks, and you say that these
are the ones that project with the highest percentage of happening, Right,
that's how you come up with you. Okay, so what
do we got? The Colts with the with the help
with the points? Sure, perfect works. I think if you

(41:33):
just take the Cults, you're fine, right because they're favorite,
so you're good. Had a little bit run purgaty moment there, anyways,
stay classy. Um, then there's gonna be more points than
you expect in Bears and Eagles. If you expect forty one,
expect more than that works for me. Well, now it

(41:54):
is time for our Game Theory and Money super Bowl probabilities.
What we've done is each team's probability to not just
make in the Super Bowl, but winning it as well.
So Bill Smith is with us, our NFL researcher extraordinaire.
But quickly, how about we hit the rewind button because
we got a little clip from our Game Theory and
Money Week one podcast, and I think one of the

(42:14):
three of us is going to feel really good about this.
I can't speak for Bill. He wasn't on the record
like some of us were, about what their preseason before
any games had been played, projection for which two teams
would do battle in the Super Bowl. Now that we've
reached the playoffs. This is what somebody had to say
about what two teams would be in Atlanta before a

(42:36):
week one was even played. And you're Super Bowl? Are
you ready for it? Kansas City and the Saints? Yep,
you heard me. Kansas City was crazy. That's just crazy. Nope,
that's not crazy. Alright, so crazy. Here's here's the kind
of very quick person. You see that Kansas City can
take them to a that's crazy. It's boomer bus. Look

(42:57):
this means Patrick Mahomes could just light it up. We
could see the most electric offense. Look at those weapons.
About that? How about my reaction, by the way, that's crazy.
It was the perfect reaction for how it plays out
seventeen weeks later. I could not have had a perfect reaction.
Like we can script it better right now if we tried,

(43:17):
if we tried to like sneak it past the goalie,
it would not fake. And in my defense, the defense
is terrible, but it doesn't matter. I mean, the the
the offense is that good, it's that electric that it
just does not Pat my Homes is throwing fifty touchdowns
and I guess the one thing is that the defense

(43:37):
is good enough where you've got DeFord and Chris Jones
just read justin Houston, wrecking shop enough where they can
create negative plays against the offense when they need to.
Nine sacks is the lowest number for the three of those.
Everyone has at least nine. And by the way, that's
what makes how extraordinarily terrible their secondary is that you

(43:58):
have that much pressure for your front and you still
are that bad in the secondary is remarkable. Um, but
certainly it's uh, you saw it before anybody else did.
That's for sure, because I thought, maybe, see, that's just
where anyway, I'm not going to continue to make its
uses for myself. Just watching Pat Mahomes at Texas Tech,
I'm like, there's no way that guy has no footwork.
He runs around like he's he's like his hair's on

(44:20):
fire and just throws the ball all over the place.
That doesn't work in the NFL. That turns out it
does just fine. Well, turn both those teams are the
number one seed. Yeah, number one seeds, And I'm guessing
when we get to your percentages, they're gonna be the
highest percentage team to make the Super Bowl, as your
model had them prior to Week one. So let's start
on the NFC side first, UH and get to your

(44:41):
super Bowl. To make the Super Bowl, winn to win
the NFC. We have what Saints their thirty two point two,
then the Rams twenty four point three, and then followed
by the Bears, the Cowboys, the Seahawks, and then the Eagles.
So the Bears have fifteen and then the Eagles go
down to six point five. So I mean it's right
in order. It's it's one through six. You have it

(45:02):
just kind of logged in in in the way that
it UH is seated right now. And I guess that
makes sense since the records, it's always going to be
it's always anyone who only has to play two games
is going to have a much higher percentage no matter what. Right,
Just that's that's the way it's always going to go,
So you know, so you're just see the same thing
on the A f C side of the ball. The
other thing that's interesting for this one is like the

(45:24):
defenses really are Like the Bears defense really drives that number,
that fifteen percent number, which is the highest for any
non one or two seed, So that that I thought
that was pretty high. I was looking last season to
see kind of what we're some comparable uh situations, and
no one was that high, So I have to go
back a few years. But I was interested to see

(45:46):
about the Bears. It's cool, pretty cool, yeah, I guess.
And you know, kind of going back to what we
discussed on the podcast in terms of the wild card matchup,
I just maybe I just value experience more than than others,
you know. I look at that that the defending Super
Bowl champion Eagles team against Mitch drabsky lad Bears offense
that has been so hot and cold all season, and
I feel like the Eagles have a much better chance

(46:08):
to beat the Bears and the Seahawks to do the
same with the Super Bowl winning quarterback Russell Wilson against
the Cowboys than maybe the model suggests. And I'm guessing
those are things that you really can't quantify, like, oh, hey,
I um, I want the guy that's won a Super
Bowl taken snaps, not the guy who hasn't and has
been kind of shaky this year. Well, the I mean,
in the model's defense, it does take into I mean,
like in the case of Drew Brees it and it

(46:30):
does to end Tom Brady on the other side, it
does take into account you know, situational snaps of high
pressure situations. So look, the difference in the difference for
the playoff model is that all sixty minutes matter. There's
no strategic reason not to maximize your production for all
sixty minutes. Like you know, the past few weeks we've
had sit or keep going with reps, and then we

(46:50):
before that we have injuries or not, like should I
rest him? Should I not? We're already in the one
seeds are like all these different kind of interesting situations.
So you're gonna put my best twenty two in your
best twenty two and we're going you know what I mean.
So that's that's like a difference there. So an experienced
quarterback with more you know, there's just more certainty around
their outcomes, like Drew Brees is outcome and and you know,

(47:13):
Philip Rivers has more situational experience because he has played longer,
so you do have lungevity in it. The one thing
that really jumps out to me, um is just the
sizeable gap between the Bears and the Eagles. I think
of all those numbers, that's the one. The fact that
you're talking about nearly nine separation between those two teams. Um,

(47:34):
you know that the Cowboys and Eagles is a little
bit more tight. I'm sorry, the Cowboys and the Seahawks
is a little bit tighter between that gap between the
Bears and Eagles. Just that that's the one number that
jumps out of me. I mean, you're higher for the Bears,
You're right, And I ran, I was just curious, like
what would it be if it was like the Cowboys
traveling to the Bears or whatever. And you know, the
Bears have a strong like that home game in Soldier

(47:56):
Field in at night when it's cold, Like that's an
advantage for them. Sure, less of an advantage against the Eagles,
who also play in the cold, but it would have
been a bigger advantage if it were the Cowboys. Yeah,
I think playoffs, I mean, weather is tough in the playoffs, right,
it's um, certainly it matters to the Saints. I think
it matters to the Rams, um for certain I mean

(48:18):
we saw how Jared Goff looked and I don't know
how much the Cowboys play indoors right so exactly, but
I mean I don't know how much of that was
due to the weather for for golf. When he went
to Chicago for that Sunday at and how much of
it was he was just getting hammered. It's really hard
to play when it's when you're horizontal and it's cold, exactly.
Um that all right? So what about what about to
win the Super Bowl? So that's to win the NFC.

(48:40):
Now let's shift to the NFC teams and winning the
Super Bowl. Saints seventeen cents of sixteen point nine, then
Rams thirteen one, Bears eight point nine, Cowboys five point seven,
Seahawks two point eight, and Eagles two point one. All right, Bill,
I've done enough talking. What do you got on this?
So for me, the most interesting point here is with
the Bears. A lot of times, if you think about it,

(49:01):
once you get to the super Bowl, your percentage to
win the Super Bowl should be roughly half. Okay, it's
a game, but the Bears, it's right at about of
what their number is to win or to make the
Super Bowl is to win the Super Bowl. There at
eight point nine to win it and to make it.
So they project, according to the model, as a dangerous

(49:21):
team if they get to that final game when you
match them up against their potential counterparts. So in this case,
we haven't done the anc side yet, but you can
imagine the Chiefs are high, the Paths are high. When
you match them up against them, they have more favorable
matchups against a team like the Chiefs or against a
team a team actually even like the Patriots, because the

(49:42):
Patriots allow a lot of rushing yards. So it's the
more favorable attributes that match up there. And the fact,
look defenses that have really good fronts, really good linebackers,
and a really good secondary that causes that causes the
turnovers that that's that's a huge driver. Like remember when
the Ravens made the Super Bowl and they were they
were the six or five seed whatever, like the five

(50:04):
seed with Joe Flacco. It's kind of there's there's some
similarities there, right, Like there's defense really anchors someone's ability
to to really perform, and short passes with our high percentage,
those high percentage passes that basically act like a run game,
that is a big that's a big difference maker too.
So even if it's kind of like so it's like
if you take the Patriots offense, remember like Tom Brady

(50:25):
was throwing like millions of passes for like three yards each, right,
so it kind of a doppelganger, looks like if you
look for matches historically, their offense kind of resembles a
little bit more like that, but a little bit more
Andy Reid flair to it, and then their defense kind
of resembles more like the Ravens with takeaways. Yeah, for me,
when you look at the twelve playoff teams, the Bears
are one of two defenses that are elite where there

(50:49):
where are there are a lot of offenses who are elite.
So if one of those two elite defenses can get there,
they have it seems like they have a better chance
than one of the many elite offense is. Yeah, I
think the That's such a tough one for me to
reconcile though, because it's like when I just think of,
you know, the Super Bowl last year, and and again
going back to Cynthia's preseason projection about the Chiefs, right,

(51:12):
it just seems like it is such an offer that
if you don't have offense, like enough offense, like look
at the list. I mean, I know we'll get to
the Ravens um in a second, but just speaking in generality,
not generalities, but specifics about the Ravens in their season,
Like almost every one of their games, teams have not performed,
but Baker Mayfield through what three interceptions, and yet he's

(51:33):
driving to win the game. In the final three minutes,
the Chargers had their worst offensive output and they had
a first intent from the Ravens thirty nine down six. Like,
to me, that's hard to sustain if you have to
go up against an elite offense, if you don't have
a capable offense. I think it's hard to trade punches
with the Chiefs, with the Saints. I just don't think

(51:54):
it's not capable. Right, Like the Bears offense, it kind
of gets like overly craped on, you know what I mean,
Like it's like strategic ability to earn first downs. It
doesn't look pretty because you're not seeing like a dominant
running back and you're not seeing like a dominant like
just nasty receiver. Take the let's take the top off

(52:15):
of defenses. But they're still learning first downs at an
elite pace. Yeah, I think what your models saying is
it's enough, right, you know, is that they're they're in
fact is enough offense there this in this sole and
takeaway so they can get that offensive short field. Maybe
the offense doesn't have to be explosive, right, and that's
that's a huge key, no question, no question about it. Now,

(52:37):
I would have more faith in the Bears offense than
I would the Ravens, that's for certain. Um No, alright,
so enough on the end, is that it on the NFC? Yeah,
we're good, all right, Let's go to the a f C.
Uh get more interesting to win the a f C.
Chiefs on one Patriots, Texans twelve four, Ravens thirteen two.

(52:59):
Catch that Chargers that makes sense, Chargers nine point three,
Colts eight point five. Um, I'm surprised the Colts isn't
higher than the Chargers, just because I know, having already
discussed it with you, that the model says they think
the Colts are gonna The model thinks the Cults are
gonna win. So that would lead me to believe that
the Colts should have a higher percentage chance. It's not

(53:20):
a very convincing win, let's right, So I know exactly.
So I think that's just the one thing that that
stood out to me is that the Colts are projected
to beat the Texans, yet the Ravens. Um so that
you have the Chargers still have a higher percentage to
win the f C. Right, so cult bad matchups. I mean,
look at the Patriots their secondary for the Colts because
is troubling. Um, you know, like it's just the matchups

(53:44):
going forward after right, So there you go the likely
it's it's not them getting to the second round, it's
them getting to the super Bowl because it's winning the
little tenni pet You're good? Can that process? I can
only think one step at a time, not more. It
should be it should be you one step at a time.
I mean that will totally change if if the if
the Colts win this game, as I project them to do,

(54:05):
they will, that number is gonna go up a lot.
Will certainly will because they will only have to play
two games and they are and I will say, um,
if in fact, the Colts can win and the Chargers
end up upset, if the Chargers can upset the Ravens
and the Colts upset the Texans, because remember in the

(54:26):
NFC they received everything, lowest always plays the top. I
think the way the Chargers match up with the Patriots,
speaking to how you think the Colts matchup, I think
that's actually good matchup for the Chargers. The Patriots I'd
be interested to see what the model would have if
in fact they and I think that also bodes well
for the Ravens to um. The most important thing in
this model that you did not even point out, we

(54:46):
talked about it before the pods. That means that the
chances of you working in February being on this spot,
appearing on this pot from Atlanta, n there is right there.
The biggest thing that sticks out is the difference between
the two twelve and four teams that tied for the
best record in the a f C. Just how big

(55:10):
the difference between having home field advantage throughout and having
to go on the road during the first weekend Chiefs
thirty one percent, Chargers nine point. The bias huge. So
even if you just gave it to the team with
the two best records, the Chiefs and the Chargers, and
if you didn't give each division winner the first four seeds,
the Chargers percentages would go up drastically. But the fact

(55:34):
that they don't win the division is such a bummer
for them. It's huge. Yeah, I mean, they have the
tied for the best record in the conference and they're
going to have to win three road games. Good news
for the Chargers there eight no when they have to
climb on an airplane, eight and zero, they have not
lost a game that they have had because the London
games considered a home game. Uh, their road game against
the Rams was in the city of l a um

(55:56):
So anytime they have had to climb on a plane,
they have not lost. I mean, that's what's all about
that remarkable about that team. The home road splits are
interesting for the charge of the new stadium, cause we
don't really know it's your temporary stadium because it's it's
just a little bit different. But it's a wonky stadium.
It's wonky stadium. So but if you look at the
Chiefs and the Patriots who play cold weather in outdoor stadiums,

(56:16):
and then you look to see, okay, well the Texans
normally play inside. Uh, the Chargers play in a temperate climate,
and then the Colts play inside. So that's an interesting
note on the side too. That isn't the case because
the Saints and the Rams on the NFC both either
good climate or indoor. Yeah, and I think you know
to me and this is just from talking to those players,
because you know, we had to do a Thursday night

(56:37):
or we we the Chargers had to play a Thursday
night or against the Chiefs, they had to play a
Sunday night or against the Steelers. And to a man,
they were like, cold doesn't matter like that, that's that
that that does not matter at all. They're like, you know,
you fall behind hostile environment, primetime game fever, pitch crowd. Yeah,
that can affect you, It can affect your you know,
your snappy. Yeah, but it doesn't get cold will matter

(56:57):
when it's like remember when Tom Coughlin's face almost fell
off that changel, Yeah, when it looked like a chapter. Yeah,
there's a there's a little difference between like that kind
of cold. So like that, there's just no potential for
that kind of cold in l A. There's no you know,
like there's a pot that head and for and for
New England, but there's not a pick off in Baltimore,
by the way, fifty two degrees. So it's it's but

(57:20):
but again there's still the potential Kansas City, and you know,
two weeks could be I don't know, I don't have
the you know, we don't know what's going to happen. Then.
So the point is that in January and Kansas City
could be cold as all get out any of that.
But as they always say, everybody's got a planet and
none of these none of these places have had serious
winters yet. So it's not like the Patriots or the

(57:41):
Chiefs or the Bear. Well I guess to some degree
the Bears had a cold November, but it's been a
I was just there for Christmas. It was fifty degrees
on Christmas. So it's not like they're out there playing
in ten degree weather and practicing. I mean they practice
in a bubble anyway. So it's um, I think the
cold things, that's just my particular position. I think it
is so overrated because both teams got to play in it,

(58:02):
and rarely are those teams out practicing in the middle
of it to gain some sort of advantage. Yeah. I mean, look,
there's some things that are true and some things are not.
Wind is a big deal if it gets too gusty,
but it also you're right, it affects both people. Send
to keep a nine? All right? Uh? Do we move
to the winning Super Bowl? Super Bowl Chiefs sixteen point two.

(58:24):
So just to contextualize that, Saints are sixteen point nine
Chiefs or sixteen point two. There you go, Patriots thirteen five.
So Rams are thirteen one, Patriots thirteen five, Texans five,
Ravens six point nine, Chargers four point nine, and then
Colts four. Is it bad that I want the Colts like?
I just want that to I just want that good
I won't be surprised, you know. I mean again lines

(58:47):
some line. Defensive line has been solid. Their offensive line
has probably been the best. Uh since they went on
this run streak. Uh, this wind streak, I should say.
And Andrew luck Is is certainly a super Bowl capable
of when you a super Bowl, I mean, has been
one of the best quarterbacks this season. Um, so I
got no problem with you wanting the cold. I don't
know why. I just want them to get to the

(59:08):
Super Bowl. I wanted I want them. I just want
them to beat the Patriots. I just want I just
want Josh McDaniel tears. Is that is that too much
to ask? That would be nice, It would be although
I guess their path to New England, Yeah, it would
work out that way, right. They would well know they
would have to make the conference championship. So yeah, I mean,
the Super Bowl got to knock off the Chief and

(59:29):
that's the ultimate drama. That's the ultimate drama that I'm right,
But you know whatever, Andy Reid, how what's Andy Reid's
record like in the postseason? Right, Andy read great? But
he has a bye, but he has a bus. So
I think that we're gonna go with Andy Reid coming
off a bye. So now we got away in the
Andy with a bye, which has the best record in

(59:51):
the history of football with a by. It's a coach
versus coach read in the postseason exactly is really bad.
So it's uh, yes, balance those two things, and you
know what I think. I think that's also something that
comes into play for the Patriots certainly. Uh the fact
that they end up getting that by is huge for
that team. Um and and also, much like Andy Reid,

(01:00:11):
Bill Belichick someone who can really scheme the hack, scheme
the heck out of things when given that extra week
of of rest. So Bill done anything. I think one
other thing to look forward is now that she has
percentages to win the each conference and then go to
the super Bowl. The likelihood of particular super Bowl matchups.

(01:00:34):
So if you take it through with her percentages to
reach the super Bowl and you pair those together, Saints
and Chiefs. She has a ten percent chance of being
correct according to her model from the beginning of the season,
that is her most likely matchup. She's just got a
s eating grin on her face right now. Well yeah,
like pretty great preseason before a week one model says

(01:01:02):
you were right. So although, shouldn't we credit the model
because we credit cent or should we credit the model? Listen?
A lot of people think should have, Like Like listen, I
I think she has evolved past me, So I'm not
sure who's programming who at this point. Like I put
all the information in, but I don't know. She could
be moving on her own. I don't even if model
is getting the credit that she deserves. Right when you go,

(01:01:25):
when you go a little further down, stat bills have
none of this. Eight No, I'm done. Rams and Chiefs
seven point six, Rams and Patriots six. And one sort
of fun note that we uncovered was the playoffs changed
to the current format. We have not had two teams

(01:01:46):
where both of them did not have to have a
bye make the super Bowl. So we've had teams from
the play on wild card weekend make the super Bowl,
but we've never had two of them in the same season.
So as you look forward for potential Super Bowl matchups,
you maybe look for one of the teams that comes
out of the one and two seed and then the
other team that's coming out of or a wild card

(01:02:08):
or so like, we found some value. So for me,
the value is Saints Ravens four point three, Rams Ravens three,
sent Bears Chiefs six point seven percent, and Bears Patriots three.
So those are some fun values. And I saw a
pretty good nugget from our Crack research staff. For all

(01:02:29):
I know, this might have been built. Its probably this one,
but it's on the Ravens defense. And having here it
is teams with the number one total defense have made
the postseason forty two times in the in the Super
Bowl era twenty three, that's fifty get to the conference
championship game with the number one d over a quarter

(01:02:53):
get to the Super Bowl, get to the super Bowl,
and percent of the win the Super Bowl. That's a
huge chunk. So what you're saying is that it's really
Seahawks Ravens because the number one running rushing offense makes
it thirty or thirty six times at least to the
divisional and then the defense, so there we go, it's
it's decided Seahawks Ravens. I mean, or if you're going

(01:03:14):
to pick one of those wild cards, if you set
like if you say it more often than not, the
one to pick is the one that you have the
highest number on, and that Saints Ravens because of that
dominant defense and historically speaking, which is it's tough to
do historical stats right, every one of those teams is different,
but it does suggest that dominant defenses tend to do

(01:03:35):
pretty darn well. Okay, anything else had enough of us
bill done? Never alright? For way too often it's all
gonna change next week. All you gonna change next week,
except for probably the Saints in the chief, those will
still stay the same because they will have not played Patriots.

(01:03:56):
And what's the other one? Rams also gonna say, yes,
Saints Patriots. Do you think they'll say the same, because
like what if it's Bears Rams, It's not that they're
going to stay the same, but they're going to the
order will stay the same, even though dominated the Rams
on that Sunday night football games. I mean, you know what, sure,
I mean, he'll probably change a little bit, but I

(01:04:17):
don't think I think the word will be the same.
That's well, check back in next week. That's why I
gonna come back right here, all right, So that'll do
it for our wild Card weekend Game Theory and Money podcast.
Remember you can always uh suck back some YouTube video
action two of the super Bowl projections if you want
to see a giant head in the video screen that
ought to be covered up and uh mine, stop talking

(01:04:38):
about me like that. That's so men talking about my
super white I need to get better lighting in this
room of mine. Uh my white pasty face uh in
the month of January. But remember you can get through
all of the Super Bowl matchups, likelihood and percentages through
the YouTube channel as well. Believe back again next We
will be back again next week with Division A Round

(01:04:59):
projections against. Thank you so much for down letting, listening, streaming,
sharing all of those things. Thanks to Bill Smith, to
Sean shopping enemy of fund, Mark Brady, and of course
the engine that makes this car runs the Freeland Money Smith,
Will ingest Ingest. Thank you for your help. This is
podcast exactly right. Wow, that was very star Trek. Give

(01:05:19):
you to drop out the pulling back and talking about
ingest Um. Well we'll do this again next week. Thank
you everybody,