Game Theory and Money Podcast: Week 11 Predictions

Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:01):
Welcome to Game Theory and Money Harror Week eleven podcasts,
and I mean thank you to all of you that
have been following along all season. To you newcomer say
they thanks as well for giving us a try. And
a special huzzah to those of you that have spread
the word on social media or have weighed in on
iTunes through reviews or ratings. Again, we keep saying it.

(00:21):
I won't take too long to say it, but new podcast.
We can use all your help if you don't mind,
if you like the pod. The best way for you
to pay us back is not showering Cynthia with compliments,
although she does deserve them. It is rating reviews and
spreading the word week eleven. Alright, quickly, Cynthia, for those
that are joining us, I feel like I do it

(00:42):
every time and people are just like, already, I get it.
She's brilliant, predictive analytics, Northwestern blah blah blah, algorithms, models,
Monte Carlo, ten thousand simulations. Well, she deserves those accolades.
And it's important to set the foundation for the home
we're going to build, the Week eleven home that will

(01:02):
be constructed beginning right now, but before we build a house, Cynthia,
we always have to look back at the home we
build the week before and whether or not you know
is the paint phaden? You know we have maybe a
little bit of a leaky faucett. It's the A C
on the fritz? Do we need a free on recharge?
Why don't we? Why don't get a look back here
at week ten? Okay? Um? So Weekeden, Well, first of all,

(01:25):
you need your quick pick because you know what, we're
just gonna so bad with that. No you're not. It's
just it's mine to remember. But I do radio, and
we're supposed to tease and like you know, when you
go to break, you're supposed to say something stupid like
lebron might have passed Will Chamberlain last night, but find
out why that's the last guy he's passing. It's just annoying.
It's like, lookither you like the show or you don't.

(01:45):
I like the idea of I like the idea of
like when I hear you do the reads when you
when we for other shows here, yeah, oh god. I
like the idea of being here to be like more
peppy because I can hear them tell you to say
it like different ways. Sure you know how that goes, right,
I do. Actually, if you've got to be in my huts, right,
you've seen it. Shut up, director gets from me. Alright,

(02:05):
So quick pick, quick pick is what? Alright? So in
our nation's capital, Houston takes on Washington, and you know what,
I think there's gonna be more points than you might
imagine in that one, even though it's two top seven
scoring defenses facing off. I think you know what this
is gonna it's it's gonna be more more and you
think more more points than some believe in the district FedEx.

(02:27):
All right, let's go recap of week ten? Did darn
well nine four and one against the number? Uh that
is eighty nine and forty four straight up? It wasn't
here straight up where like you know, there there's a whatever,
just whatever, you know what. That's why we give you
scores so you can figure out how to navigate it yourself.
Your confidence picks two or three, you know, my quick

(02:49):
math says sixty sixty six point six exactly. Oh wow,
we've got applause. I don't like that applause. I want
golf claps. Cynthia's got too much class, shoppy she's too
classy a lady for you to be given her. Just
like a rousing sitcom style of applause. I want golf claps.

(03:10):
All right, that's what we want next week. There's your assignment,
Mr Producer. Here we go. You're ready, all right? Before
we get started a big We live here in southern California.
I've lived here for almost thirty years now, and it
is a great community. It is a community that rallies
around each other when we face adversity. And unfortunately, because
I've lived here as long as I have, I have

(03:31):
been through serious earthquakes UH, and these wildfires become a
seasonal event and it sucks and people lose their homes.
I had to be evacuated in Malibu fires the house
I lived in, UH for whatever reason, and it wasn't
cool that it did not burn down, because the houses
around us did and there were families and memories in
those houses. And we were just six idiot college kids

(03:51):
living in a crappy house that managed to stand. So
these people lose everything, and if you can help him out, boy,
would that be great? Red Cross dot Org. I've seen
them in action, and it's gonna get worse. It's so
the fire season is here and the rain season is coming,
and that means mud slides in a lot of these areas.
So it's gonna be a tough go for the next
six months even And they can use your donations to

(04:12):
to some degree look forward as well, if you wouldn't
mind texting California Wildfires that see a wild Fires to
nine zero nine nine and automatically donates ten dollars to
the American Red Cross of California and the wild fire
relief And they need you desperately, so definitely. And if
you live in southern California, because the many do, you
can go in Venice. There's been you know, clothing drives,

(04:33):
you can go donate stuff. I yesterday I learned that
some of the best things you can get Starbucks, gift cards,
things that seem kind of like sun sunblock, stuff like that.
You can you can liquids. The firefighters are first responders.
I don't I don't mean to do this and make
an anecdotal, but I do have friends their firefighters team.
Do they say just liquids? There are drop off points
where they can get water and gatorade because they do

(04:55):
not get a break I'm sure you've seen some of
just the gut wretching photos of the firefighters in their
full gear just passed out in the middle of a
dirt lot because that's the only place they can get
their rest. Uh. They are true bureros, are first responders,
so please help them out anyway you can, all right,
Miss nine four and one, last week we go. We
call them freelance faves, as you know what it means.

(05:17):
Favorite Cynthia likes some Eagles at Saints. Saints by over
seven points right now seven and a half. Walk us
through it. So this one comes down to the Saints
deep passing which drives a score, a most likely score
of thirty two. That's eight points. Really. The number I
that I like in this one is that the Saints
win in se of the simulations and it, oh, I

(05:44):
can't and support that. I just can't. I can't. I mean,
it's listen, Shoppy, just real quick, and I know I
know what this podcast is for, and I know what
you're listening, and you don't need my stupid as sides,
there are very few, uh things in the world of
arts that are truly American. We have not invented many things.
You know, but jazz is the one thing we have

(06:06):
and we all and it was born uh in New Orleans,
in Chicago, Kansas City, New York. If we're going to
play music for the Saints, I don't want when the
Saints go marching, pull me some Louis Armstrong. Please please,
let's just sure. Let's just let's just make sure. Alright,
shoppy moving forward. You got home. That's two. You're now
zero for two. Okay, let's see if you can get

(06:27):
the gold keeping them brero mr I'm still wearing my
Red Sox head. Oh boy, thinking Red Sox. Alright. We
all know Drew Brees is a fast passer. The quick
pass has have really been the foundation of this offense.
But what you might not know is that he has
the pioust passerading on deep passes. So those are defined
as twenty plus are yard passes, so highest passerading on

(06:49):
those in the NFL for the season. Thank you next
Gen Stats for that. And by the way, the Eagles
against these types of passes eight touchdowns allowed to only
one interception, so that is not ideal. You know, it's
not ideal. And I think this is those are those
are on longer developing place. I mean, I would assume,
and I don't know if you've run the individual numbers,

(07:09):
but good luck selling me on there being a better
receiver in the NFL. Then, Mike Thomas, do not read
my article, I said, of course I read it. That's
why I set you up. I mean, that was a softball, right,
So it's all about it's all about the first down
ability and Michael Thomas both on the ball in terms
of his actual ability to catch the ball and earn

(07:29):
those extra yards, get his hips facing the right direction,
and to draw coverages away from so his other receivers
or Album Camaro or other people. He changes the space
more than any other receiver in the NFL. So I know,
you know why you don't remember this because we actually
wrote it way back like four weeks ago. I knew that,
so so that's really why, that's why, that's why it's

(07:50):
and we said it kind of before you saw him
catching two past, touching touching past downs, touching past. Okay,
that's kind of like that's kind of like spruce springs.
That's like Bruce Springsteen speedball. That's said he'll throw that
speedball right by, and it's like, I don't think Bruce
knows too much about baseball if he's calling it a speedball, yeah, yeah, no,
So then the other side, I just do want to say.

(08:11):
The one other thing that makes it such a convincing
win is the fact that the Saints defense has been
so good against the run. So if you look at
how went so Carson Wentz early in that last game
when they kind of couldn't get together, they need to
have their run game be sort of fortified. And the
Saints not only they're allowing only eighty point one rushing
yards per game, which is best in the NFL. They've

(08:31):
been they've they're what they're doing to do that is
they're doing a combination of getting off their blocks quickly
and they're also keeping gap integrity. So I'm re measuring
everything with computer vision to talk about gap integrity and
to talk about the down linement getting off their blocks fast.
So those two things, like it'll come up later in
this one, but I'm measuring with computer vision, and they're

(08:53):
doing that the best in the NFL. Right, you're coming
with gap integrity, computer vision. Here's what I'm comed And
one of the things that I really enjoy about this
particular season and really to some degree recently. Uh, and
I just kind of think back to the Eagles and
that loss against the Cowboys when Zeke went crazy, and
just how important because it is such a past happy
league and we're talking about five thousand yards like it's

(09:15):
three thousand yards passing now for quarterbacks, just look at
the top five teams in the NFL. Kansas City Kareem
Hunt run a little bit? Can he can he keep
that balance, that that offense balanced up. Todd Gurley of
the Random run run a little bit, keep it balanced.
The Saints that we're cooking at right now, Camara Ingram
keep that offense balance, the Chargers Melvin Gordon is on
an m VP campaign, and the Pittsburgh Steelers with James Conner. Uh.

(09:36):
The Eagles are struggling because they decided, oh, remember last
year when we did this whole small Wood Clement Ji
kind of we can do that again and I can't.
They answer that as, no, you can't. You got away
with it once and it's you have got to have.
And I know they're undervalued or overvalued if you pay
for too much for one, but if you want to

(09:56):
win a Super Bowl, I think last year was more
an anomaly um and an exception than the rule. And
I think this year is certainly proving that because you're
seeing the best offense is being more balanced than we
have in the past. And that's why I absolutely love
the Saints this week because man is so hard to
deal with Drew Brees when you've got to worry about
Alvin Kamara and Mark and mark Ingram. It's just it

(10:18):
is such a good team. And that's why I'm so
happy that I picked them to go to the super
Bowl at the start of the season. And I'm feeling
so good about that right now because well, the other
side of it, when you picked the Chiefs and I
roundly mocked you, is making you look like a fool
at this point. So but I have not given up
on that. I still believe their defense will come back
to bite them in the s and that is still
my projection. I got a great Bob Sutton free story.

(10:40):
Love Bob Sutton, one of my absolute favorites, all right,
So say and yes, and if you want to say,
because this game is pretty interesting, I mean it gets
kind of overshadowed by that other one that happens to
be in our town. They got moved Um, they got
moved to here. But I will say that there's more
points scored than you might imagine after watching the Saints
and sorry the goals last week. And part of that

(11:01):
is because they're going to use play action with wins
and he's actually incredible using play action. And the Saints
are third worst in passer rating allowed when people when
opposing quarterbacks used play actor. Play action does drive up
that score. It's not going to be this boring game.
It's going to be a very exciting one. Maybe not
as exciting at the one here on Monday night, but
apart from that, it is still going to be a

(11:22):
lot of offense in that So if you have any
pass catchers for the Eagles on your fantasy team, you're
totally fine. Let's go Thursday night football. Seahawks by less
than a field goal, uh two and a half. And
you like what you know? This is how you know
that we do math here as opposed to like you
do your a math person. Did you know that right?
What you're talking? All? Right? So my model has the

(11:43):
Seahawks winning in an overwhelming what what there? You go?
So that that's more than I would have thought. Um,
just to check and then the score that's most likely.
Now gonna tell you we're recording this on Thursday morning.

(12:03):
The injury report is going to be super super important
in this one because the two right and left tackle
Bolaga Bakti, they've been on the injury report all week
for for limited day. Yeah, they've been limited. And kJ
Wright on the other side for the detail. That's a really, really,
really big deal. So I more I feel better about
saying that the Seahawks will win than I do about

(12:25):
the score in this one. And I really I'm actually
a little Here's here's the thing that is very tough
to model and my this is why my gut doesn't
love like my again. The math is what it is,
and I do math. Whatever the emotional loss coming down
from the RAMS, I don't know how to factor that
in properly. Um. I do have days of rest, I

(12:45):
do have marginal victory. I do have if it's a
you know, I account for all of those things in it.
But there's something about my like, when I look at this,
I'm like, wow, sixty two okay, And then I dug
a little bit deeper and then I see that the
run game actually determines this one because both quarterbacks play
playground ball, you know, and that they're both great out
of the pocket. You'll hear that narrative over and over again.
They're really whoever can generate the best rushing offense is

(13:09):
really going to win this game. Seahawks sneaky give up
the fourth most yards per rush in the league. If
you look at where they're where they're doing that. The
reason Bobby Wagner's getting all those tackles is because they're
getting past that. Those down linemen. They have one. They
really just have one good defensive front four player. That's
Frank Clark. It's awesome and he's going to get paid

(13:29):
this offseason. And he's probably at least mentioned pass rusher
in the league. But man, is he nasty? Uh? You
mentioned kJ right. He might be. It's crazy to say,
but he might be more important than Bobby Wagner because
Bobby Wagner is freaking good. When you watch how quickly
he closes in his ability. The only problem about that, though,
is that if it's getting to when you have your

(13:50):
you should have some balance of So here's where the
new computer visions measuring. It's not fully vetted yet. I've
only done it for one season, so I gotta go
ten season before I can start adding it to the model.
But I measure the direction of shoulders at the time
of running back his hit and hips, shoulders and hips.
If your shoulders are perpendicular to the line of scrimmage,
then a running back and get more yards. Right, think

(14:10):
about it. The gap is are you're talking about the linebacker? Yeah, okay,
I'm talking about the down linement, right, the down linement.
So the reason that part of the reason why Bobby
Wagner is so important to that offense or defense rather,
is because they're not able to slow the run down.
If you have yards after contact, if it's something that's
like a parallel hit versus a perpendicular hit, you can

(14:31):
run a lot faster if it's parallel, right, if the
gap is bigger. So that's kind of thing, and they're
not getting off their blocks FAST's and I would I
do want to point out because as I'm looking at
their depth chart now and I wasn't a second ago,
I forgot Jaron Reid has been playing well too, and
he's actually really good and extremely underrated. So I don't
want the people to freak out and be like, dude,
what about Jarring Reid, He's been good. Uh, the secondary

(14:51):
is not good. That's where I think Aaron Rodgers attacks
them and gets out ahead. Here. The other problem, too
is I don't know. Look, I know you like them.
I'm not saying I don't. The Pro Football Focus people
do a great job, but I don't get their old
line grades. I've never understood it. Anybody I talked to
that's done offensive line played, the offensive line coaches, offensive
line says it's the dumbest thing ever because you have

(15:11):
no idea what the assignments are, what they're supposed to block,
what the plan is. So it's impossible to grade unless
you talk to the old lineman and the old line coaches.
For whatever reason, they got the Seahawks old line grade
at high that makes no sense to me. Having watched
a couple of their games going into the Charger game,
and then watching them in the Charger game, that oldline
does not look good. So you can tell me whatever
you want the Pro Football Focus grade is. I'm buying it.

(15:33):
So I spent a year measuring the bums, knees, and ankles,
and back the whole year measuring these things with computer
vision with my eyes with with an online coach trying
to understand. I don't I like what prof Football Focus
is doing overall, and they've got to do something and
that's the best they can do as an outsider approximating
all of it. But I don't know if you can

(15:54):
like I just I just I positioned it that way
because when I say it, people are like, well, Pro
Football Focus hasn't grade it as a top five len
that's great. Go watch the game. Go watch the game
and watch d J Fluker routinely trip over his own feet,
watch Jermaine Effetti get wrecked in pass pro U, and
watch Russell Wilson run for his life if he's got
to take more than a three step drop. I don't
know what the you know. I don't know how they're

(16:14):
great in it, but it just when I watch it,
I don't get it. So for me, it's more about
if you like this is a separate conversation, But to me,
a great old line in general would be like quarterback agnostics.
So I could put the like, well how would you perform?
But so you can't do that, But like that, My
point is Russell Wilson is masking how poor they're doing

(16:37):
totally fair asking how poor they're doing because they're cheating
on the test. They're cheating on that. They got a
high grade because they cheated on the test. Because Russell
Wilson gets he takes care and plus, by the way,
you know, and I don't want to get too deep
in this. It's a Thursday night. We're doing this on Thursday,
so it's good that we're not talking about the game specific.
You like the Seahawks, I like the Packers great, but
I think I don't know what Brian Ottenheimer's doing with

(17:00):
this offense either. I understand he's not calling a lot
of seven step or even five step drops. He's not
pushing the ball downfield, but not using Russell Wilson's legs,
and I don't know if that's a conscious decision that
he's making. But Russell is probably, I think not probably.
He is, in my lifetime watching football, the greatest at

(17:21):
managing to shed contact. That dude never takes a direct hit.
He knows how to avoid getting hurt. I know he's
dominutive in stature, but he's thick, he's strong, and he's
smart and he doesn't take hits. So get him out
and get him running because he's on pace to take
half of the mode of the least amount of rushes
he's ever had in a season in his career, less

(17:43):
than half. He's on paced for like forty eight rushes,
the least he's ever taken his nineties six. So I
don't know what Brian Schottenheimer's doing up there, but man,
that's your best weapons. Start using it or the season
is gonna be over again. Yeah. One thing to watch
for in this one is the Packers outside rushing, so
especially and Jones off to the left side of the offense.
That's where their most efficient is about five yards per carry.

(18:04):
That matches up really well to where Seattle's most vulnerable.
Seattle's across the defensive right, so that's where the left
would be. The right you know, number thirty two in
the NFL with eight point five yards per rush allowed.
So if they can get Aaron Jones going over to
the left and get those yards, like that's the only
way for me. That that that and I mean I've
watched you know again it's a single game observation, but

(18:27):
it was you know, they started the Chargers started to
run Melbourne up the middle a little bit early on
and when they started attacking those edges, because Frank Clark's
just running up field, so if you can get him
sealed inside, Melbourne was just attacking those edges and ripping
off seven eight yards per carrying. You mentioned the emergence
of Aaron Jones and they can do that, then, uh,
then hey, maybe by prediction will come through and not

(18:49):
yours and your fancy man. All right, let's go Texans Redskins.
You you gave us a quick pick. You think there's
gonna be some points here? What we got Texans, by
the way, currently the number less than a field goal
there on the road. But they are they are expected
to win by two and a half points. Yeah, well
I have them winning by twenty or which is five points.
It's gonna six. Yeah, Texans win in six of the simulations.

(19:13):
And I think that if you look at that number
one the most likely score if you just if you
think about like what a normal NFL score is, you know,
about twenty two points per game used to be the average.
This year, we gotta kind of up that one. So
if you're thinking each each team might score about that, right,
it's way more than that. So, especially with as good
as those defenses are not to mention as much as

(19:34):
Washington wants to run the ball. Uh yeah, they traded
for Alex Smith and gave him a big old contract,
but they know they are best when they're run heavy,
and that tends to make you think and why the
numbers suggest that it's going to be a low scoring game. Um,
but this you know, Texans offense has been a lot
more explosive the last couple of weeks. Um, And we'll
see whether or not to Mary's Thomas can still fill

(19:55):
that role of Will Fuller and keep that point total going.
Do you think here there's Look, these are both, like
you said, top seven scoring defenses, but there's two. There's
two areas. The offensive diversity for Houston, so short passes
to Lamar Miller. The Redskins defense has given up a
tont almost seven receptions to running backs per game. That's
tied for fourth most in the league. Receptions to running

(20:18):
backs per game. That's a lot. So that's how you
get rid of Their next gen has the Washington defensive
front generating the most pressure, so most pressure by percentage
in the NFL. This is this is a big deal.
But if you have Lamar Miller catching those short passes.
That's how you can kind of escape that big deal.
And oh, by the way, you've got DeAndre Hopkins, who
you can now scheme using between him and Damarius Thomas.

(20:40):
The safeties are the key to that Washington defense. So
if you can who's gonna draw the safety coverage because
their corners and Josh Norman, by the way, is allowing
on eleven passer rating, So you want give me, give
me Nuke all day. If you can get him one
on one with Josh Norman like all day, and if
Damarius Thomas can help kind of take that double coverage
or change the change the shape of the defense a

(21:02):
little bit, that's a really strong reason why, right, Yeah,
And I because I just tried. I'm trying to figure
out where Washington is going to get their points with
this whole line, you know, I mean this, right, I
mean I mean and obviously docks and got the big
touchdown last week, and and if Crowder's back and healthy
and we don't know, And that's why you keep an
eye on on Cynthia's Twitter feed and see which is
see Freeland, right, just see Freeland, um, because things can

(21:26):
change if he gets more passing options. But you think
about J. J. Watt and that defensive front and I
don't know how to pronounce this guy's name. I know
Jonathan Cooper has been waived by I think at least
ten teams in the league. That's the left side. Um,
so do you know how to pronounce ties? Because I
think that's how you got it completely right? Got it right?
But um they got a dude from Texas State at

(21:47):
left tackle. They've got Cooper who was a former first
round pick but truly has been traded I think like
nine times it never made a start and just now
making his way from team to team when they lose
their guards and their centers. I believe a Wyoming boy
if memory serves me correct. Anyway, I don't know why
I'm taking shots at smaller schools, but it's not about
this what I'm getting at. You've got that defensive front

(22:10):
of Texas and of the Texans, and man, I don't
know how that works out for the Redskins to score
points because they couldn't. They couldn't score points against the Buccaneers.
I mean, that's crazy. Well, you know it's even crazier
the Redskins having a lee change all season long. It's
the first teams cram nine games, no lead change and
what team was that? There's where you need that, there's

(22:36):
where you need that sound effect. Right, I think that's
I think that's an interesting like, it's not a very
probable things. So what you're saying is score first Texans
in that game, then it doesn't matter what Texans as well.
Cowboys at Falcons and Dian Jones is back huge, huge, um.

(22:59):
What do you Falcons are expected to win by three
and a half points? What you got at the Falcons
winning is most likely score falcon. I believe that's a seahawk.
I believe I heard that. So if you're gonna play
a bird sound effect, you're gonna have to get more shoppy. Okay,
Falcons win in fifty points. By the way, no such
thing as a seahawk. They say it's an osprey, but

(23:20):
not really fiction an h osprey you University of North
Florida ospreys, that's what they are. That's right, it's not right,
it is, yeah, I just well done, thank you. It's
from saying no seahawk. That's what they try to say.
It is. It's not like a regular that's a hawk. Yeah,
not a Falcon. But hey, whatever it works, Shoppy, we're

(23:41):
working through this. Man. Work a trial in here, all right,
Cowboys Falcons? You like the Falcons? I do um the
pace favors Atlanta, So I'm gonna use a basketball reference.
We're gonna do it. So the Cowboys are kind of
like the Spurs, right, They do a better job when
it's a slower pace. When they can eat up clock,
when they can get Zeke rushing, they can they can

(24:02):
be efficient and not you know, and their offense stays
on the field. So I do want to give some
love to Amari Cooper because of that. We keep seeing
how his route running ability is helping create more separation.
That we saw how impactful that was on Monday night.
And Zeke it helps him too because it clears out

(24:22):
stacked boxes sot tonight. Can I interrupt you just because
you know me and it'll bother me just because the
Cowboys aren't elite, you know, Like when I think of
the Spurs, I think of all those championships and teams.
So how about from now on, because I know you'd
like to use that when it comes to pace, how
about if we do like, Hey, the Cowboys are like
the Grizzlies, you know what I mean, because they've only

(24:42):
won three playoff games in the last twenty years, So
why don't we say is that? Okay, can we do that?
Sorry for being a weird like that, but I think
it's a more apt description, right because you're like, wait
a minute, they're like the Spurs. Is that is she
just saying that because they're both from Texas, and she
generally because we don't like San Antonio here in Dallas,
you know what I mean, air point, fair point. So
the Cowboys are like the Grizzlies. There we go, here

(25:03):
we go, Buddy wins. But Atlanta pays plays at a
really fast paced and they're able to I mean like
they still are number two in passing yards per game.
And yes, Dallas is a top ten scoring defense or
number three, number three and scoring top ten defense overall.
But that pace and their offensive diversity again is what
favors Atlanta and this one and even though we've seen Look,

(25:26):
I hate when people like Cowboys are back, like you
have this tiny picket excited people get excited, well they
should get excited. You know, how does your golfer Cynthia
you know, you know, you have a good couple holes
after a miserable score. Next thing you know, you're on
the fourth hole in your like and I'm like, yes,
this might be it, this might be and then guess
what comes this? Guess what comes up? Reality, Snowman. Yeah,
just a shank straight into the woods followed by a

(25:49):
duff into the water. Exactly up for Shoppy is getting
a little too Okay, okay, can we handcuff him? All? Right?
Back to the game, let's do it. We mentioned Dion
Jones is back. Really huge. That's one of the most
determining factors in this is the is the middle that

(26:10):
the quarterback of the defense is back for the Falcons,
huge deal, I would say, so the defense can't be worse,
that's for sure. We just watched Baker Mayfield cut it up, uh,
you know, for his best game, and that's just been routine.
It's hard to figure out the Cowboys. Um, I mean, look,
they lose Shawn Lee, Layton Vanderish has a freaking unreal

(26:32):
game against I don't know what, what do you have
like ninth I think it was nineteen tackles if I
remember right against the Eagles, just something nuts like that.
So I don't know. What to make of the Cowboys.
I'd stay away from this, but forced to to pick,
I'll go Falcons. It's not the it's not like in
the seventies. So we're at Dallas, you know, but you're

(26:54):
on the fast track. You're you've got that offense. Julio
Jones is unstoppable, like he always is, like Calvin. All right,
I'll go Falcons, Bucks and Giants. Giants are favored by two.
I have the Giants coming on top, most likely score,
Giants win in a whopping fifty three stimulation. Okay, this

(27:15):
is one. I don't think it's going to be that
offensive juggernaut you might expect, considering the Bucks have had,
you know, the number one scoring offense, all these things
we've seen from its magic, I think that there's primarily
the Bucks negative nineteen turnover differential. Yeah, that's that's really bad.
That's historically bad. And their most red zone giveaways and

(27:36):
three in each of the past three games. And the
fact that it is kind of weird that they had
five one yards of offense and they only scored three points.
Not weird, it's embarrassing. It's time. It's Super Bowl era,
epic unheard of expect as correct um. But and then
on the other side, the reason the Giants come out
on top. ELI has the most stacks and the highest

(27:58):
sack rate. It is career two over nine games, and
the Bucks are about twenty five, tied for twenty and
sacks per game. It's really the fact that they'll be
less pressure on Eli Manning get this offense going. I
think Odell Beckham, actually I think it was Landing Collins
said something like we have one percent chance I'll take it,
which means I think he listens to the pod. I
think you're absolutely right, and I concur with everything you said.

(28:20):
And because it's the Giants versus the Bucks were moving
Steelers at Jack's UH, I feel comfortable saying the Jags
are already out too many explosive personalities in that locker
room to deal with this type of adversity. Steelers can
pretty much make it official with a victory, and they
are favored UH in Jacksonville by five, which is a

(28:40):
pretty big number. I still like it. Yeah, I have
the Steelers most likely score. Steelers win in sixty nine
point seven percent of simulations. That's almost that's a high
number for me and my model. UM realistically in this one,
it's the look when you think of when you think
of a Jags run game, that's the key. That's what

(29:02):
we saw. That's how they almost almost upset Indianapolis, but
they didn't. Um But the Steelers have the fourth best
rush defense in the league. They only allowed ninety rushing
yards per game. And if you look at how they're
doing it again gap integrity. They're more They're not getting
out their blocks as fast as some of the other ones,
but their gap integrity, there's just no place for people
to go. And although Leonard Fournett is really at rushing,

(29:23):
he's great at yards after contact, and this just isn't
the type of yards situation where he's gonna earn those
yards after contacts. I want to take the Jags just
because doesn't this feel It's just it feels like this
is the this is the roadie that Ben goes on
and after throwing five touchdown passes and reckon the Panthers,
he throws three picks and the Steelers lose by two touchdowns.

(29:46):
And the continuation, well, they just can't figure out the Jags.
You know, the Jacks got their number. It's just one
of those things you know, but then you think about, Okay,
they just went to Indianapolis and Andrew Luck just carved
up that supposed minute Jags defense. Not to take anything
away from Mantel Luck, he's an e leade quarterback. That
offensive line has been playing as well as any unit
in the league. And that's kind of what the recipe
is in Pittsburgh right. The old line has been great. Um,

(30:10):
I think I'm gonna take the Jackson do it. I
think I'm gonna do it. Do it. I Am going
to do it, Cynthia, here we go. All right, now
you can get back to the whoa. I want to
talk whoa? That hit? That again? That's fake? Yeah, that's
that's not a legitimate I think a burp. That's That's
what I mean. Like to me, it's computer generated. I

(30:32):
need you to go, like makes that noise like after
a few hours. Yeah, that's uh. I'm taking. That's the weird.
I'm taking the Cats. I like the Cats, I like,
but I like the Steelers more. But I think it's interesting.
There's something about like runs some like some streaks here,
and you know we're talking about like our winning streaks
are losing streaks, like a thing like in baseball people

(30:52):
talk about all the time, and losing streaks are actually
more interesting and more um predictive than winning streaks, just
so you know, because it is Jack's five is a
losing streak for them straight, I will, uh just just
want to add that in there. I'm gonna take I'm
gonna I'm gonna go big Ben. Does Antonio Brown have
the touchdown because he's been moving around a lot, but

(31:12):
boy A should be back. Yeah, I'm gonna say yes
he does. Um, but I'm gonna say big Ben has
at least two interceptions and okay, all right, you gotta
put that should be write that one down. Broncos at Chargers.
Chargers favored by over a touchdown seven and a half.
They are home for the first time in five weeks.

(31:33):
And speaking of stars, happy about that six game Charger
win streak on the line. Right, They've been playing well,
They've They've kept it interesting, that's for sure. For sure,
I have the Charges coming out on top. They win
in seventy two point nine. That's seventy of the simulations.
The biggest reason here is what rivers under pressure and

(31:54):
against the Blitz passer rating and one oh three passer
rating respectively, and yes, learned chub are great at getting
pressure and sacks number three and number four, highest sac
rate in the league. But they got they got answers
for that they do, and the answers the answers. Philip rivers.
He he is so good. I mean, it is crazy

(32:14):
now that I've had the wonderful Uh, I don't know
blessing of watching him. I just you don't know, you know,
he's not flashy. I just wish. Yeah. He he gets
rid of the ball so fast. He identifies what's going
to happen on the defensive the side every single time.
And he knows when to throw the screen. He knows
when to throw the slant. He knows when he's going

(32:35):
to be able to drop back because they look like
they're blitzing and they're only bringing three and he stands
back there and waits for Tyrone Williams to burn his guy.
It's it is the precision of a surgeon, um, And
I think the key is the other side. Garrett Bowls
has been a and I hate saying it, you know,
in such I don't know, harsh words. He's been terrible

(32:57):
at left tackle, just terrible. They lose their center that
and they've been starting to run a lot of stunts.
But on the inside, much more paradise for right exactly,
paradise is out. So uh, you're seeing Melvin Ingram lineup
over guards more and when he does that, look the
hell out. I think. I don't know, he said, he

(33:19):
said two weeks ago, if you see me practice on Wednesday,
it means I'm playing on Sunday. I'm not going out
the practice if I'm not playing on Sunday. So he
practiced on Wednesday. Um, but I don't know if it's
terrible to say, because look, the Broncos are the Broncos,
aren't the Raiders. The Broncos are losing games that are close.
Case Keenom has blown two games for them against really

(33:42):
good teams. He hits to Marry as Thomas. They beat
the Ramps, It's that simple. They were in that Chiefs game.
So it's a good team. Um. I just think it's
a bad matchup for him, you know, the balanced offense
of of Gordon and Rivers. I think I'm with you.
Um here's my question. Do we get Bosta back by Chiefs?
Wee yes, Oh yeah. I think I think he wants

(34:03):
to probably play on Sunday. And I think that's why
I think the way the I think the way the
team probably looks at it is, Okay, can we manage
without Joey against Denver in Arizona. If the answer is yes,
let's just wait till the Pittsburgh game, because you know
you're gonna that. You said Arizona without like flinching at all. Yeah,
I mean, I think those are those are the those

(34:23):
are the two games. You know after that you've got,
you know, because look at the stretch after that, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati,
Kansas City, Baltimore. So it's like, are we really gonna risk?
Just tell me I can have him from Pittsburgh on
and I'm good. We'll figure it out. Until then, we
feel pretty good about our matchups and and how effective

(34:44):
they've been. Derwin James, man, he he was very quiet
for about two weeks. Go watch that game against the Raiders,
and man, you want to see if they don't have
to keep him high. And I don't think they got
to keep him high against the Broncos without the Marius Thomas.
I know, I know Courtland Sutton has been good, but
I don't feel like and they don't have a tight
end that he's got to worry about traveling with man
Durwin in the box, you know, and and I like

(35:07):
Jeff Hireman actually, but but I think you get to
keep Durwin in the box and man, that changes everything.
I don't know how that guy is not the defensive
rookie of the year. I think that to me is
just fatal company. It's it's done. He's that impactful um
even without splashy statistics and interceptions. I mean, I've got
a lot on him. The way that they're using him
in thirty one are really thirty three and thirty one

(35:28):
when you're watching the game this Sunday. That's going to
be something going forward for those Steelers games, for those
that and I don't mean to look past the Broncos
in any way, but especially in games where it's gonna
be so it's gonna be so interesting to see how
they stop like a James Conner runner and a Kareem
Hunt runner like that is going to be I'm gonna
I'm I'm psyched to see that because they're really all

(35:52):
those defensive backs with those putting in, the defensive backs
play a lot more Nickel like based on injury whatever,
Like they're built to stop speed, but then you have
this like Thrasher up front and then it's like, oh great,
so we're stopping speed and we're stopping the run. So really,
your your fake stuff isn't gonna work for me, right,
And it'll be interesting, you know, this will be their
first full and granted it was a full game, but
it was against the Raiders without Denzel Pairman, and the

(36:14):
run defense is so dependent on him, and in fact
he's gone for the year. They're running a lot of
those six defensive backsets and Adrian Phillips, who's that? Yeah,
who's who's good? Um? Who's got a little bit of
size as a safety. He's probably about two d twenty pounds,
but he's not two hundred sixty pounds like you know,
two fifty five like Denzel was. So it'll be interesting
to see kind of how that plays out this full

(36:35):
game with Lindsay, who's a very effective and punishing runner.
My my favorite two expressions in football. Um, one was
like waste spender, so that's why I spent a full
year measuring offensive lineman. And the second one is lighting
the bum but use the a word lightning. Yeah, like lightning, right,
He's lightning, got it? So I'm just gonna think I

(36:56):
think it's gonna be so interesting because when coaches are like,
oh yeah, they're lighting the ass, and I'm like, what
it's like when they're thirty pounds less heavy. So this
is going to be the great case study for you know,
who's lighting the ass? Bolton Miller. And you watched it.
You saw it whenever Melvin Ingram and he's given up
probably sixty pounds to Miller and you're watching just two
hands on the chest and boom, Miller's gone. I mean, look,

(37:17):
I hope the guy becomes a great player. Um, he's
a phenomenal athletic specimen for his size and what he
can do and the way he can move. But you
just said it, he's lighting the ass. He's getting pushed around.
I think he's surrendered more sex than any left tackle. Um.
So that's you know, if you want to know what
that means and why they use it, that's it. Guy's
six ft six pounds and you've got, you know, basically

(37:41):
a former linebacker turned back into a defensive end who's
clocking in at about two sixty five. Just he's on skates.
He's just shoving them right back into anyway. All right,
Speaking of the Raiders, I was about to say that
was the perfect segue. That's what I'm here for. You
know it's talking too much today, No, okay, So Raiders
a card um. The Cardinals are favorite by four, favorite

(38:04):
by four. I have the Cardinals winning nineteen. I have
the Cardinals winning in fifty eight point five percent of
the stimulations. This one is interesting for a few reasons. One,
it's really the thing that drives the win is that
the Cardinals under Byron left Witch have really started to
like wrote high on David Johnson and like, you know

(38:25):
he's good. Oh what do you know? Like, oh, pass
screen passes that David Johnson are going to give our
quarterback a little bit of relief and give him some
some tempo and some get some rhythm going and get
this whole thing great. And by the way, it fits,
only needs eight receptions to pass Jerry Race for the
most receptions for a single franchise. I think that that
could very very certainly happen in this game, which would

(38:45):
be nice to see because he's one of my favorite players,
and I think he's probably one of everybody's favorite players
you don't like, if you know, like Larry Fitz football. Yeah,
I mentioned Colton Miller. The other problem with the Raiders
is as bad as he's been, their right tackles even
worse Brandon Parker. They're playing with rokies on both side
that line. And that's why Derek Carr's streaming defense fourth

(39:06):
and five passes that that's why you're wondering how that happened. Well,
he's got two tackles that are out there looking to
get him killed. So m killed. Yeah, yeah, right, So
I mean, look, and I think this one. The more
interesting factor in this one is the fact that, you know,
if the magic numbers like forty one, I think that
that there's more offense than that, then they got nothing.

(39:27):
I'm I'm with you. I take the cards. Bengals Ravens
a f C North showdown. H he was playing quarterback
by the way off the board. Flacco injury. So until
you know, we don't know, you know, stay away. So
I ran it both ways. This one is for right now.
It's for Lamar Jackson. Lamb Jack's that's my new nickname
for him. I don't know if that's going to stay. No,

(39:48):
I don't think so, but that's how he comes up
in my model because it just does. Like the first yeah,
but because it does. It was like five letters of
your last name and three of your first sounds every
time restaurant right every time? Would you like? I'm jack Sure?
So Baltimore is getting kind of like the home advantage
with three points and I have three. No aga Green,

(40:09):
new defensive coordinator, no idea who's playing quarterback. This is
a mess. So let's go to the next one. I
just want to add something real quick. Yeah, um, I'm
gonna take the Ravens because the Bengals hired Hugh Jackson. Listen, money,
I would like anyone to love me as much as

(40:30):
I dislike Hugh jacks Know, as much as Marvin loves
you that you're gonna say as much as I like. Sure,
go on first take and say, like as much crap
as you want to about your former employer, Well, we'll
employ you here a week later. Like, no one would
love me that much, and I think my mom loves
me that much. Just gonna end up at a desk
with me at the combine. I want to listen to
it all. Right, here we go, let's go to the dogs.

(40:52):
You like the dogs. There we go. That's a little
too yippie. I like my dogs a little more meaty.
There we go a little bit. It's a little that's
of medium side. I'm a big dog guy. I like
the big dog. I didn't say I like a mean
dog instead of like a big dog. Okay, and I
want to I I don't need a mean dog, just need
a big dog dog. Right. There was just attacking a
poor small animal, which mind does from time to time.

(41:15):
That's okay. He's a laboratory's supposed to hunt, and he'll
bring me, you know, moles that he digs out from
the ground and just drops him at my feet and
they're half alive. And you know what I gotta do,
finish him off. I'm out of the mystery. Maybe I don't.
Maybe that's just something I saw and like netchio. All right,
you like the dogs, and we're starting with the biggest
game of the week. Chiefs at Rams supposed to be

(41:35):
at the Statos Teca. Unfortunately their groundskeepers could not sort
things out, so bad scene unfortunate, But hey, Tess, who wins?
We do here in southern California Monday night football, and hey,
a big, a big thank you, huzzah. Way to go
to the Rams. They're handing out thousands of tickets to
first responders and those that uh suffered losses in the

(41:57):
Woolsy fire. So way to go Rams. That is awesome
and it should be a fantastic, fantastic Monday night atmosphere
out at the historical Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Alright, so
the good stuff RAMS are favored by three and a half,
but you like Kansas City. I like the Rams to
win thirty one thirty, so I think it's gonna be
a very close game. Rams only win in fifty five
point five percent of the simulation, So maybe this one's

(42:19):
just best to watch. And I think though thirty one
thirty is not like everybody thinks, these are the two
most ridiculous, amazing, fun offenses to watch. I think it's
a little more tempered than you could imagine, right, thirty
one thirty. Still a lot of offense, but a little
more tempered than then you could imagine. So both teams
the thing that's really interesting, both teams number one and

(42:41):
number two and scoring in five plays or less. So
Chiefs number one explosive, right, Rams number two doesn't. It's
not that shocking. One of the things that really flagged
in the model here. And obviously the reason that the
Rams come out on top is because of the Chief's
defense so terrible that but one of the things to

(43:02):
watch going forward. One of the reasons that it stays
so close is that when you look at the Rams
defense and terrible, right, it's not what and it's kind
of like not favoring Like last season they were not
good at stopping the run, but teams weren't running on
them in the second half because their their offensive offense
was getting out to such a convincing league that opposing

(43:23):
teams had to throw to keep up with them. But
now when you're throwing, defense is not the thing that
that's your strength. Then when people are throwing against you,
look what happens you are in games late, it's it's
you almost you know, you could potentially have You're giving
Russell Wilson, who's an elite score, You're giving him the
ability to go down the field and pass against you

(43:44):
like that. Like these are these are things that going
forward could be a problem. Elite quarterbacks have torn their
defense apart. And our producer, uh shoppy here just mentioned
in my ear. Hey, revenge game for Peters. Hey, he
don't need revenge. He needs to figure it out because
he's getting torched and he wants to take shots at
Sean Payton. Hey, you played like crap? How about you

(44:05):
just be quiet? You know what? What? What's the uh?
The famous saying is when you win, say nothing when
you lose, or no, when you lose, say nothing when
you win, say less. For Marcus Peters, say nothing. That's
that's I'm just gonna end it there, say nothing. It's
been a rough go. They desperately need to keep to lead.
They come back. By the way, why are you sorry?

(44:25):
I'm getting into it? Why why are you playing? Marcus Peterson? Man?
And too many people that know more about football than
I do keep saying it. But I watched Philip Rivers
when they put him in man on Mike Williams. Mike
Williams torched him. And that was the first game and
the first crack uh in that damn and it is now.
You don't think any Reid who knows everything about Amamus Peters.
Teams are already throwing deep against the Rams at the

(44:47):
fourth highest rate in the league. They know like it's not.
It's not. It's like a it's it's well, it's well
known and well exploited, so they gotta figure out a
way to to take him out. I just decided to
pull this up. Do you know what the quarterback rating
is against the Rams? Do you know what their defense?
What the quarterback rating against a defense that has and
Dominican sue Aaron Donald, last year's defensive m v P

(45:09):
who leads the league in sacks as a defensive tackle,
Michael Brockers now Dante Fowler, Marcus Peters, who am LaMarcus Joyner?
Like do you know what the passer rating is against them?
Right now? Point nine? Ninety eight point nine? Like that's crazy.
Shouldn't be like that? And in fairness, I'm sticking up

(45:33):
for my guy, my Aaron Donald. Here, he's playing great,
playing great. You can't get you know what this is?
It is the it is the conversation. And god forbid
I give John Gruden any credit whatsoever. But when he
looked at Khalil Mackie's like, Okay, I'm gonna pay this
guy a hundred and seventy million dollars and the rest
of my defense sucks, So what am I doing what
Why Why am I trying? Why am I locking him

(45:55):
up for the next five years when it's gonna take
me five years to find guys around him? Um, And
that's what's happening right now with Donald. He is so good,
but everything around him has been so bad that you know,
quarterbacks have now figured out we can attack him on
the outside. And you have seen elite quarterbacks Drew Brees,
Philip Rivers, Russell Wilson, Aaron Rodgers do exactly that. Um.

(46:17):
Just so you know, if when you're watching, if they
can get Kareem Hunt going, if they can get him
to really slow down and chew up the clock, that's
how the Chiefs would win this one. Yeah. And look,
I'm pulling for the Rams for obvious reasons. I'm pulling
for because I want to watch that. Yeah. Oh no,

(46:37):
I think it'll be a great game. I think you're
absolutely right. I mean, I don't look the totals. I'm
not touching that total. Um. The idea that that you're
projecting sixty four points is crazy. Uh not you. I'm
just saying the proverbial you or the proverbial they, that
they are projecting that many points is crazy. To think.

(47:00):
But that's what it's gonna be. I mean, these two
offenses are that good in these two defenses? All right,
Cynthia will pause there because that is the finest game
of the week. Before we get to the rest, Let's mention,
Candid something new that we would love to talk about.
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(47:21):
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(48:04):
What's it? Take six months? Six months? And it's six
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(48:25):
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(48:47):
candid code dot com slash game theory. All right, Cynthia
with your perfect teeth, don't even want to weigh in.
Let me listen, twist in the wind with my imperfect
teeth fights or whatever. I paid a lot of any
for these teeth exactly, and that's why where you see
and I get to go to candid and I'm not
going to have to do as much money. Actually, I'm
coming for your teeth. Yeah, I'm coming for your teeth, Cynthia.

(49:10):
I'm going to candid co. Your teeth are going fun. Fact,
my best feature, it's the truth. No, it's not cything.
You know, your best feature is my brain. That's right,
because that's why we're doing We're not doing this podcast.
I'm not getting paid because of those teeth of yours
getting paid because of your brain, your ability to do
make tell me your teeth are your best feature. Panthers

(49:31):
at Lions, Way to go Lions, you look great last week.
Way to go Panthers, you look great last week? Cats
versus cats? Cats versus cats? Which cat would you rather have?
Would I rather have? The Panthers? Model likes the Panthers
to win sixty five point five the score. That's most likely,
by the way, the Panther's favored by three and a half.

(49:51):
So that makes you're taking the dog, so that they
had taken the dog, taking a dog, taking a dog
in a fight between two cats, got it? I like it? Yeah? Yeah, okay,
so the way you do it right? Absolutely? Why is
camping so successed? Double negative? In this case? Considering how
they played last week? It is a double negatives. Panthers
are going to the playoffs first one to ten. You

(50:14):
know what do they get left after this? They have
Seattle at home, at Tampa, at Cleveland, Saints at home,
and that's a Monday night er at lant at home
at New Orleans. I think I think they can get
four though, So let's say I got them this week.
I'm with you. That's seven wins Seattle at home, I
got that. That's eight wins at Tampa, that's nine at
Cleveland ten film Yeah, I'm with you. Yeah, Panthers, they're

(50:34):
going to the playoffs. Guess who's not lie downs? The downs?
The lie downs? Um do a quick nugget here before
we move on. Here's a nugget. So Cam's having an
m VP campaign. It's his best, his best, except he's
having it in a season when again, but Drew bers
is having the season's right. But sorry, Bud, Sorry Bud,
good effort. Still you have an m v P, Drew

(50:54):
dudden't you ain't getting it this year? Good'll well, we'll
say you're having an m v P type campaign, but
you ain't getting that award you're getting. And part of
the reason we have to give some Okamists love here
because the Panthers are playing. The Panthers have a guy
from Ochamus, my hometown, on their O line, Taylor Moten.
Taylor Moten from Ochimus playing in Detroit, am seck seventeen sacks,

(51:15):
which is the fewest through nine games in his career.
Thanks Taylor, Taylor Moton, welcome home. Um. The only problem
with that is, I mean, you know what the diet
looks like an ochimust. It's a lot of cheese, a
lot of heavy cream, it's a lot of a lot
of domestic beer. So I'm worried that Taylor might maybe
maybe a trip home to Okam is not good, you

(51:36):
know what I mean. Listen, It's not like you're coming
to California and getting avocados and uh, boo chaired stuff
like that. You know, can Booch right, that's so good? Alright,
Detroite obviously fourth fewest total pressures. I don't even need
to go about their run defense, but I did want
to say that Taylor Molten thin because I thought that
was kind of funny. Well, you got a shot out,

(51:57):
okamis anytime you can't. By the way, seven of us.
There's like seven of us though it's a town of seven.
How incestual Pro Bowl vote is here? Which NFL players
do you want to see at the nineteen Pro Bowl
in Orlando? I know who I want to see. Vote
today at NFL dot com slash Pro Bowl Vote NFL

(52:20):
dot com slash Pro Bowl Vote start now, all right,
here we go underdogs that you like to win out right?
Show do Yeah, I'm with you on this first one here.
I will take the Vikes all day against that Bear
team that is wildly overrated. At this point, they are
favored by two and a half. You like that home
so Death Soldier Field. Yes, By the way, it was

(52:42):
snowing there today, like stick snow, not like a nice
little flurry that goes away. It's mid November, so glad
we don't live there anymore. Um for that, I love Chicago.
I would love to live in Chicago, but not when
it's snowing. Premium to live here. It's seventy degrees outside. Right.
Viking has been in my model three most likely score.
Vike was win in fifty three point eight of the simulations.

(53:04):
That's a lot more points than a cold winters night
in Chicago might project. Really for this one, pressure causing
turnovers or pressure in general limiting the ability of the
offense to be efficient the narrative on both sides. Obviously.
You know Mitchell Robiskie, he has the fourth lowest pressure rate,

(53:25):
so he doesn't see much pressure. But when he does,
his passer rating goes down by forty passer ratings. Huh,
that's all just forty. That's the thing, like eighteens normal,
which looks good. Matt Naggy's offense looks good. Okay, I'm
go go back to the schedule, man, Mitch has really
had a good three weeks out of Detroit, Okay, and
then oh, Buffalo, and then what about the one before,

(53:46):
Oh the Jets? Oh what do you know? What a
great three weeks? May I introduce you to Mr Daniel Hunter? Sir,
would you like that? Would you like to make Lindvall
Joseph Griffin exactly? I mean the idea that that this
is gonna anyway. I think it's gonna be a route
and when and even bigger than mine. So Cousins gets
Digs back, that's great, and which Digs being back to

(54:08):
really helps Thelon Thelan and Kyle Rudolph being back or
they're both there, Kyle Rudolph and Adam Thelan and Dalvin
Cook's ability to kind of be this trifecta of goodness
helps lower the pressure, because no one's been more pressured
than Kirk Cousins this season. But how do you counteract that? Well,
you do it with a guy like Dalvin Cook. You

(54:29):
do it with a with shorter passes, and Adam Thelan's
ability to adapt and come back and just get open.
I don't know if it's busted routes. I don't know
what he's supposed to be doing, but you know what,
he's open and Kirk Cousins finds him. And when Kirk
Cousins doesn't turn the ball over, then he's super effect.
What are the Bears right now at the six and three?
They are Okay, Yeah, they're finishing nine and seven, and

(54:49):
that's good. It's a good, good step. But I would
like to point out go to my go to my
Twitter account like you, but listen and we'll see what happens.
Tweet my playoff project per percentage. Well, yeah, that's that's
because Bears Packers so mad. That's because you took the Packers.
I didn't take them. Okay, that's because your math projected

(55:10):
the Packers. Who look who they've got left. It's a
forward looking things. All these Bear fans and matos talking
like this, Cynthia, how are you gonna take the pack
when the Bears are on top? But it's a six
and three and a pack or four and four and one.
They got a tie. You can't win a division with
a tie. Yeah you can. And guess what the team

(55:31):
that comes in second place is gonna have a tie too,
because the Vikings gonna win the division. I disagree with
you on that. I think the Vikes end up winning it.
Uh Packers, But you know why if if the Green
Bay wins tonight and the Vikings, then the Vikings lose
to you know, they they've got they saw the Patriots
and the Bears twice they split with the Bears even
or anything like that, Right, Like, that's where that could

(55:53):
come in. And look, is he your schedule for the Packers.
I'm not the guy that digs in. And it's like
I'm sticking with the my addiction, No, prove to me
win this game. Bears, go out, win this game, beat
the Packers at home, give the Rams a game, and
then I'll buy it. But I just did that the
idea that I'm supposed to buy the Bears after they
destroy the Jets, bills and lines. No, sorry, you were

(56:14):
three and three, you're now six and three after those
three games. Let's see where you're at. Friends, give me
a fun current. The Bears are allowing the lowest passer rating.
But again it's sort of fake, right because in their
plus thirteen turnover differential, it's a little sort of it's
sort of fake because Detroit Buffalo Jets in Miami. I'll
bolster that. And I mean, what they've got to win

(56:35):
if they want to get the ten wins and get
in the playoffs, they either have they have to beat
Minnesota at least once, right, because I'll give you, I'll
give you at Detroit I'll give you at the Giants,
but then you've got to find that that gives you
eight wins, all right, And you got at San Francisco,
so now you got nine. Now all you gotta do
to get to ten and get into the playoffs is
either beat Minnesota once you play them twice, the Rams

(56:55):
or the Packers, and all those games are at home.
You got Vikings at home, Rams at home, Packers at
home at Minnesota. Win one of those and you'll get
to ten. And I don't think they do it all right.
I don't know what happened at that guy he leaves
the city and all of us said Nita, and liked
the teams. He grew up rooting for anymore. Couple three

(57:17):
years ago he was still a Bears fain. And now
it's over. That's my old man talking. I love your
dad's name is Ralph. Yeah, that's so great. Well, Maddie,
when you were when you and I my dad was anyway,
I don't meet that stuff. Sorry, No, that's the best
party love it. Have to listen to the old sports
on the headphones. When I was a janitor, my old
man was a janitor, and he was like, why don't
you come along with me, Maddy. Yosha. That's by the

(57:38):
way again, just kind of harkening back. My older brother
gets to go to an ivy league school, he gets braces.
What do I do. I'm like twelve years old and
my old man's bringing me along to clean banks with him.
That's what he thought of my future. Maddie, Come along
with me to the first bank of Whiting, and I'm
gonna show you how to empty the garbage and work
the dust mop. And that's what he thought I was
gonna be. Thanks, Dad. Freaking older brother goes to law school.

(58:00):
I'm so proud of my son. He's the first professional
in the history of our family. What am I doing?
Freaking hanging sheet rock? That's that was my graduation. This
is very cathartic. I don't have to be a janitor anymore.
Now I can be a laborer on a construction sid Maddie,
I get you a job. What am I doing? Dad?
You're spreading stone and they're setting footings and you're gonna

(58:21):
haul sheet rock? What else am I doing? Dad? It's
the summer. It's nine degrees and humidity in Chicago. Oh,
I got you a job. You're you're laying insulation and addicts.
What's insulation? Dad? Oh it's blown glass. Okay, should I
wear a mask or something? Nah, you'll be fine. All right. Well,
when I die at sixty eight because I inhaled freaking

(58:42):
blown glass for three months, I'm sorry. All right, we
still have one more to go. Times and Colts so annoying.
Good luck with that. I'm glad everybody can have a
laugh at my expense. But who's laughing now? Actually I'm laughing.
That's right. I had the last laugh. It was the

(59:03):
big sports star exactly. No, he's got two left feet, literally,
just like that guy in Best in Show walking around
the North Terrier. Two left feet. And this is a
little bit off subject, but let me ask you a question.
How much you think I can bench press? Go on,
come on, go on, take a guess. Max out at
five you can bench five hundred pounds. I don't know.

(59:25):
Titans totally got me. I was like, wow, holy, okay,
Well the Titans coming out on top three, which is
it's in Indianapolis, so this is a this is in
the Cults are favored by two, so this is a dog,
an outright dog. Win. Um. The Titans have Marcus Mariota,

(59:47):
who's decided, Oh wait, good when I run the ball.
I was actually just watching shoppy like go through the
Google docket. It distracted with where's a little emails? So sweetish,
I can get my point in Marcus Mariota. Finally, Remember
he's got legs and he's got four or four speed,
and you're not a pocket passer. So don't don't pretend like, oh,
I've got to I've got to become a better pocket passer.
Now you don't. You're lightning quick and the second you

(01:00:10):
see a defense, get up field and you can turn
the corner. Go. I mean, but I get it. Not
everybody can be Russell Wilson and and deflect contact. You know,
Marcus takes some big hits and he's Marcus not exactly.
His hips are on his exactly. But that's how they
win games. Yeah, he is that good when he gets loose.
The reason I have them winning this game, my model
likes the fact that the Texans defensive front and their

(01:00:32):
multiple looks sorry Titan defensive front. I mean, look that
it's all the same coaching tree, right. They all came
from Bill Belichick and Varbo and VBO was in Texas
so you know whatever, it's all the same. Um. So,
the Titans defensive front, with their multiple looks and their
ability to gain just a disproportionate pressure, is going to outmatch.
I know the Colts, and I said it last week

(01:00:52):
against the Jags, but the Colts old line they having
to get up a sack now in four games, And
that doesn't glue Jacksonville. But that's rare. That's a are
thing to happen. And the diversity of looks from this
offensive or defensive front is what's really gonna be the
advantage in this one. Slowing down Andrew Luck and the
league's top ranked third down offense. That's how you do it, right.

(01:01:13):
You're great at tackling, you're great at you're great at
creating situations where you know what, Marcus Mariota will be
able to benefit from the fact that he won't have
to keep up the pace with Andrew Luck, right, so
that the defense won't make that happen like the Colts.
I just I love Andrew Luck with an offensive line
that can protect him, you know, and and look at it,
it's like he's back at Stanford. He's got this giant

(01:01:34):
old line, he's got these giant tight ends and this
height advantage downfield and Eric Ebron and Cox that guy
who I mean, I don't know what Detroit was doing
with him, because Frank Reich has certainly figured it out.
I mean, there's a reason why he was drafted in
the first round. Here, you know which team has adopted

(01:01:55):
analytics this season really like gone in on it hard.
I'm gonna get the Denver Broncos. So not the Lions,
but actually the cult. And I'm not saying that's the reason,
and I'm not saying whatever, but I'm saying that when
used correctly, and what I believe is correctly is the
fact that it blends what you see, how you coach

(01:02:18):
and optimizing for everything. It's not there's no such thing
as like you can't dent to analects, you can't not
do it, but the fact that you're able to see
different looks from Erky Brenny. Yes, working with him on catching,
like him not catching in Detroit, that was a problem
he dropped. But the situation and being more open, like
if you're more open, you have a better chance of

(01:02:38):
catching things. If you have less coverage, if you're less
you know, if you're less triple tea. I heard the
analytics department told Eric Y Brown he had to grow
his finger nails on an extra six of an inch
and that way, that's what analytics closet. I mean, look,
I look, and and maybe it's just my confirmation bias
and celebrating Andrew Luck because I called quite a few
of his games and he was at Stanford and he's
the best college quarterback I've ever seen. This is this

(01:03:02):
is the Stanford offense. It is a giant offensive line
that is super athletic and a butt ton of tight ends.
And that's what he did. And that's huh So maybe
Quentin Nelson was worth turns out he was worth it.
But that's like, think about it. They have one. He
had no He had no receivers at Stanford. He had nothing.
Richard Sherman was the defensive back, you know, I mean,

(01:03:22):
was a no. Richard Trmon was a receiver. What I'm
saying is Richard Truman was a receiver and he was
so ineffective as a receiver that they flipped him to
a defensive back. Um, it's it is the Stanford model.
And when he was doing it, he should have won
the Heisman. He was the best quarterback in college football,
and it's exactly what he's doing in Indianapolis, and he's
shred and teams doing it. He's one of the best

(01:03:44):
quarterbacks in the league. I like the Colts. Take the
Colts do it alright? Confidence picks? What do you got? Alright,
so already told you about that. I like in our
Nation's Capital, that was our quick pick. A lot of
point points, So I'm going there. I like Yo Chagas
to win convincing second week in a row, and it's
worked for you last the Bolts. I'm sticking with the Bolts.

(01:04:04):
And I like the fact that Byron left, which has
more offensive value in this one, so I think more
points in Oakland and Arizona matchup. Take that. Let's go
to playoff odds um and some that are obvious. I
guess I'll just kind of get those out of the way.
NFC Ram Saints, and then let's get to the interesting ones.

(01:04:25):
Now we gotta fill four slots, and right now you
got what Packers, Eagles, Bears, Panthers. But I want to say,
if you're listening to this after Thursday, after the Thursday
night for the game the Green Bay Seattle game. Yeah,
so if Green Bay doesn't win this one, that number will.
So it was like, here's the problem if you look
to see so it goes Bears at five, then Panthers

(01:04:47):
at six, and Vikings at seven. Vikings are the lowest
in that one with fifty point seven Bears, right, and
they play each other. So it's kind of stupid to
look at it after Thursday without the Sunday game being played,
because like that's so temporary that it doesn't matter because
they play each other two days later. Right, So the
NFC North will start to in the next two weeks.

(01:05:09):
The NFC North will sort itself out. Next week the
Packers and Vikings play. This is going to change dramatically.
Just accept it is what it is going into week eleven.
It is what it is going into eekle leven. Stop
your complaining, not yop, your yapping people yapp And it's
actually pretty funny to read, um, get back in the kitchen,
this is why women can't be in sports. And I'm like,
you know what's funny. I love cooking, so I'll do

(01:05:31):
projections while I'm in the kitchen. Just so we're clear,
you know what I say to that, get back to
the math. Get back to the math. So why I'm
getting paid. You have the Redskins at eight, so if
they win, if they get a victory over the anyway,
there's no point to walk through that look obviously, it's
it's fluid. It's going to change, right the two that
I'm watching for specifically, I think both the Eagles and

(01:05:51):
the and the Redskins lose, So I don't think that's
going to change the order there very much. I think, realistically,
what could happen in this one, it's really like Carolina Panthers,
they get a good schedule going forward. It's really going
to be who which team from the NFC North is
gets the second one gets the second slot, right, so
two NFC North teams in the second nine and seven
might get it. By the way, I think that you

(01:06:13):
look at the way that that it plays out and
who all the teams are playing. You know, I think
we both feel pretty good about Carolina making it in
that that five spot at that six spot very well
could end up being nine and seven. And Falcons really
pooed the bed went their loss to the Browns because
it really knocked their ch of getting into the playoffs
just considerably down. It sure did because they still have
to play the Saints at the Saints next week, They

(01:06:34):
still have to play Baltimore, They still have to play
at Green Bay at Carolina, So tough go. All right,
let's get to the a f c uh point nine
percent Chiefs ninety four point nine Patriots, and then and
the way Patriots game against the Titans. Don't over. Don't
think that. They don't think there's something wrong with the Patriots.
They ran the same place in the second half. They

(01:06:55):
weren't trying, like they did not show they weren't trying.
And know what I can say, they weren't trying to
win because I don't know that. I can't speak to that,
but it doesn't appear by their play can They're just
kind of like, oh, we don't have drunk, we're out.
Bill Belichick, man, he likes to give his his former assistance.
He's trying. He's trying to water that tree. Bill. That
tree is dead, man, A coaching tree is dead. Ain't
no race, right, the guy loses to Rabel, loses to Patricia,

(01:07:17):
what do you know, and then he just waxes him
in the playoffs. Well, that's my conspiracy. Just didn't show
him anything, right, They just don't. They say they show
nothing because that the pages look at their schedule like
we're going to the playoffs like we're not gonna not
win the a f C East, Like we're not going
to not win it. So I don't really care. Must
be nice playing that crappy division seriously. All right, after

(01:07:38):
that third you have the Steelers. I'm with you. I
think they have now cemented themselves as the class of
the a f C North. Fourth, Texas, Yeah, no, I
feel pretty good about that. Although the Colts win. Nah, Texas,
what do they have left? Let's go through this, Okay,
So that's actually interesting. Then it goes to Chargers after
the Texans, and then right now goes Ravens, Bengals, Titans, Colts.

(01:08:00):
So Ravens six, Bengal seven, Titans eight, Colts nine. And
the difference between the top of that with the Ravens
at six and the Colts is about ten percentage points.
So this is going to sort itself out too, because
when you look to see, okay, look um, the Titans
if they can, it's about can they keep this winning going,
especially these like direct ones against the Colts. So that

(01:08:23):
eight versus nine matchup will have a significant shift because
the way these models work is their forward looking projections.
So if it's like in the fifties, which the Titans
and Colts game is in the fifty percentage, that's like
zero point five wins to go forward, right, So if
it's almost a coin flip, once that goes to a hundred,
it will shift up the percentage significantly, So it could

(01:08:44):
be in that sixth slot. Realistically, Ravens, Bengals, Titans, and
Colts could all be one of those. It's pretty much
just not the Jags. Well, and the thing with the
Ravens and Bengals is they play each other. You look
at that a f C North and right now it's
this week you have Bengal. It'll sort itself up. Those
two teams play each other at Baltimore this week and
then they okay, that's right, it's only one left. So

(01:09:05):
they have the Yeah, they have the Browns twice, and
they have the Steelers at the end of the year.
The Bengals have to come out here to take on
the Chargers. Um, it's tough to figure out because again Baltimore,
oh my god, I'm so glad you get that you
get the Bengals with Hugh Jackson out here at the Chargers.
That's so great. Look at me. I know you're gonna
I love it. We're gonna get such good sound from that. Yeah. Sure,
I'll be done on the sideline. I'll make sure I

(01:09:25):
go talk to him, all right. So Chargers sixty. Yeah,
looks like the Charges are pretty much at least locked
into that first wild card spot and it's gonna be
hard to overcome the Chiefs. I mean, obviously the Charges
have to be perfect. They're gonna have to win out
the Chief's hiccup here because they have that head to
head win. The big one is the Chargers. And this
is what happened last year, right, the Division uh hinged
on that Thursday night football in December against the Chiefs

(01:09:47):
and the Chiefs spanked them. Um, and that was it.
Chargers out of the playoffs. Chiefs when the Division and
then get humiliated by the Titans in the first round
of the playoffs and Pat Mahomes becomes quarterback and his
breaking records like we've never seen all right, said it.
I think so I feel good. I feel like we
talked through some things today. I mean, we really did
all right, and like I feel bad. I feel like
I said, doesn't mean about Chicago. I just don't like

(01:10:09):
when it snows. It could still anywhere, and I don't
like it. I don't care. I'd moved back to Chicago
in a minute, if I would, nice and warm and
lovely and whatever, not leaving this place kidding me. No, No,
although the text you know where else, I wouldn't go
back Connecticut. I've never heard of it. Yeah, all right, Well,
thank you, uh Shoppy Brady, the folks that helped put
it all together. Be sure to check this out again

(01:10:30):
next week. Your dad, Bill Smith, Ralph Ralph, Oh, oh yeah,
that's right, my dad. That's right. You were like, are
you brothers? No, my dad, yeah, Bill Smith, our statman,
I forgetting anybody else. This is like my Oscar speech. Okay,
we'll be back again next week. Thanks for downloading, streaming,
listening and reviewing, rating all of those things. Uh, and
I promise I keep saying this though I won't talk
as much. Next week. We'll get some more of the math.

(01:10:51):
All right, Thanks everybody,

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