Game Theory and Money Super Bowl LIII Prediction Show

She ran 30-thousand analytic filled simulations pitting the Rams against the Patriots, and is now ready to reveal the results! Matt "Money" Smith guides us through Cynthia Frelund's sea of numbers, to find out who won most often, and what the most common score was. Cynthia also reveals which 6 individual players her computer model likes to perform the best in the game, and she sat down with Jets safety Jamaal Adams to see who he has winning. It's the ultimate Super Bowl LIII Preview!

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
All right, welcome to Super Bowl Week here on Game
Theory and Money with Cynthia Freeland, Matt money Smith here
and oh what do you know? Look at what's right
in front of me, Cynthia. Regular season ten thousand simulations,
playoffs twenty thousand simulations. When it comes to her fancy
algorithm Monte Carlo method model that is unique to only her,

(00:23):
thirty thousand simulate? Can I get a thirty k simulations
for the Super Bowl matchup? Is what we are delivering
today and all the analysis that goes along with its. Cynthia,
how long does it take you to do thirty thousand simulations?
I'm guessing the same amount of time as it takes
you to do twenty or ten. Well, it takes a
little longer because for this one, you've got a couple

(00:43):
of extra games and then you have sixty full minutes
of them caring, and then you had some weird things
that happened this year, like some unpredictable calls, and so
you got to kind of factor in like a lot
of tweaks. Well it wasn't tweaks. It was more like
they come up as flags. So like the computer visions
like hey, there's something messed up right here. So it's
like you watch it, then you gotta call a coach,
my phone, a friend. Then you gotta ask back like
the ask backwards kind of what happens and what would

(01:05):
you do in this situation? And is this logical or not?
And then that's how it it goes thirty thousands, thousands.
We got next Super Bowl? All right, let's get right
to it. Then, Uh, what is the number? New England
by less than a field goal neutral site? Two and
a half. So the old you get three for home
field that does not apply here. Uh, and they like
there to be understandably a lot of points score fifty

(01:27):
six and a half. So what does your model say?
Are you ready? We're coming out like I feel like
like nostalgia. I'm having a moment of nostalgia, right, all right?
You ready? I have the Los Angeles Rams by one
point nine twenty eight, so that is one half point
higher than the total. And uh, you have the dog

(01:53):
coming out victorious. I do so, okay, let's yeah going
to say I would assume with a one point win
and a half point over the total, this is a
very tight game. It is. And if you look at
like the trends, like when when it was initially said
that it was going to be the Rams and the Patriots,
it was kind of even right like it started off

(02:13):
even it was not you know, there was not a favorite,
and then it swung all the way. All these New
England people were like, ah, Tommy, he's getting us back
to the super Bowl. We're gonna go Tommy, Tommy. So
all of those people drove the perception to almost a
full field goal difference. So this annal perception here, that's
all math do math. So here's a couple of questions

(02:34):
for me the late person um. One, how is there
a way to quantify uh prior experience and plugging in
teams that have been to a Super Bowl before verse
because there's not a lot, you know, I mean, if
you go back until two thousand, I mean you were
talking about essentially kind of like three or four teams
that have prior Super Bowl experience routinely one of them

(02:56):
are still playing exactly so, but I mean you have
Peyton Manning and his Colts, and and the Broncos, and
you have obviously the Seahawks, the Patriots. I guess there
are a lot Steelers and just how they fare when
they go back to multiple Super Bowls. It's still at
the end of the day, it is still the weapons
that the Patriots have versus the weapons that the Rams have,

(03:17):
versus the coaching that the Patriots have versus the coaching
that the Rams have. So it's it's not dissimilar from
a playoff game. So you kind of use the playoff
model for it. And then you are are you using
then Wade Phillips Broncos even though he wasn't the head coach,
he was the DC, which you're using that Broncos defense
and what he was able to do. What are his
what are the attributes that he displayed when he went

(03:39):
up against actually Tom Brady and had success. It's not
the exact same team, but it is the same quarterback.
So some of the decision making things and trends that
Tom Brady is still gonna be Tom Brady, isn't it
more right? Like so there there are still some things
inside pressure. Everybody knows Tom tom Brady doesn't like pressure
to his face whatever, you know, Like those are the
types of things that's like, how do you create that

(03:59):
sort of pressure that changes the game? And that's what
he did. If I remember writing that UH Conference championship game.
They really got after him. He blitzed a lot and
granted that was not inside pressure. That was all DeMarcus
ware and and Von Miller who had a sack like
every twelve place. I mean it was Yeah, they hit him.
Whether it was a hit, a hurry, or a sack,
they were all over him that entire game. Now that's

(04:20):
edge and those are probably too Hall of famers. I'm
not saying that that Aaron Aaron Donald clearly is going
to be a Hall of Famer. He's going to be
your back to back defensive m v p UM. But
they don't have that to anyway. That's that's different. But again,
what I'm asking for is that applies to this model
and what Phillips was able to do. So so does
Sean McVeigh. So Sean McVeigh is a Shanahan person. Kyle

(04:41):
Shanahan has some experience against Tom Brady and the Super
Bowl recently as in two years ago. Now, all you
have to think about in these situations is all right,
by the way, they're friends, they call each other. He's
gonna be like, I know that twice a year we
face each other. But at the end of the day, like,
let's get me this ring. So like Tom Brady doesn't
get it, and Kyle Shanahan said, when you're up by
three scores, do yourself a favorite. Run. Don't don't keep passing, run,

(05:05):
run the football with a lot more explet Yes, I
think he's a great swear. I think it will work
out for you if you do that, if you learn
anything from me, run the football. All right, So let's
get into it. Uh, what is he still had a
good plan. They still had a good plan for score,
had a great plan for three three and a half quarters.
But again they jumped off to great lead. So that's
the kind of thing that you're gonna, look, the Rams
are gonna try to achieve something like that where they're

(05:27):
just like boom, just keep going, hit him in the nose,
you know, like and that's it's actually, that's a great
point to bring up because it's um, it's it's not
I don't know, pick your Hall of Fame quarterback. It
was it's kind of one of those borderline guys. And
Matt Ryan, you know, is Matt Ryan just a system
guy who is a product of being protected in the
weapons that you place around him, He's not someone that's

(05:48):
ever listed in that elite category, fair or not, except
for pep course, But I mean, gosh, name a quarterback
that's on his second contract and starts that doesn't have that.
But you know what I'm saying, Like, he's not in
that Aaron Rodgers Drew Berries conversation, yet he was able
to gash that Patriots defense uh for a three score
lead at some point in the Super Bowl. So I
think you could probably say, Hey, Matt Ryan Jared Goffe

(06:10):
pretty similar guys, especially the way they play, so you're right, um.
And also the dependence on the running, the type of
running the I mean, the scheme for that is is
incredibly similar. They come from the same tree. So that's
that was the first thing when the when it was
said that it was Rams and Patriots, my gut was like, Oh,
it's gonna be Patriots by like models, gonna be Patriots

(06:31):
by like seven, which in my model is a big number. Right,
And because I'm like Tom Brady experienced what we saw.
Their old lines, both of their old lines are two
of the most key factors of this whole game. So
when you talk about like the Atlanta team and the
parallels to this Rams team. Look at the old line
like they had like some really nice pieces and both sides.

(06:52):
I mean in this game, the Patriots also have a
great old line, but that's going to be the absolute
key and both are playing some of their best football
right now. Um. While that old line struggled late in
the season, specifically against the Bears, they really tightened up.
Same with the Patriots. You talked about that edge pressure
and there has not been any other. Trent Brown has
been playing great. The inside of that line might be
the best interior three in all of football this season. Um,

(07:15):
it's how do you bring up Trent Brown though, because
Trent Brown had played when he played Dante Fowler when
Follower was on the Jags this season he got wrecked
by Fowler. So that's going to be interesting because when
you look at the vulnerability of this line, if you're
getting pressure from the outside, you saw it like in
the Tennessee game in the lines there they didn't have
exceptional Tennessee has great pass rushers, Detroit did not. But

(07:38):
what happens is that you're bringing consistent on the edge,
it pulls out the middle. Then you love the center
allowed sacks, which was not. It's not a normal thing
for this old line for the Patriots. So it's gonna
that Trent Brown Dante follows kind of a sneaky, low
key matchup to watch. The one thing I pushed back
on that as though, he's, you know, a young player,
first year player, that was early and he's I get it,
he's gotten better and better every single time. But I

(08:00):
worried a bit about left. I've already he's already played him. Um,
and you could, you know, you can point out, hey,
look Las Campbell, great interior, Aaron Donald, great interior. So
maybe again that line. Sometimes it becomes too much, right,
like how many chips can you handle before you just
absolutely can't take it anywhere. Yeah, it's funny though, because
like now when you bring that up, it's like, okay,

(08:20):
so now do we go back to the Rams can't
stop the run conversation? Or because what they've done in
these two playoff games against two really good running team
Zeke Elliott and the Saints and Alvin Kamara, do we
not believe they can stop the run? Like? What what
is it that we want to lean on the last
two games or the prior six team? Listen, that's that's
me a perfect because this game is gonna be allowed
about play action. So for me, at the Jared Goff

(08:42):
using play action more than any other play any other
player in the league. Thirty five and three point four
areads more per play on play action versus non play action.
So that's a big difference. And that's great considering the
amount of press, the amount of man, all the different
types of coverages that he's going to see from the Patriots.
Of Patriots play the most most man in the league,
and they've also when you look at play action man

(09:04):
when they've been pressing all these different when you align
the coverages, you look at the alignments and you look
at the coverages and you see what happens. It's kind
of like Jared Goff gets better. He he actually does
get better against man coverage. And like crossing routes have
helped a ton, and all these things that are like
the little tiny like where the water gets through and
the cracks for the Patriots, that's what the Rams do well.

(09:25):
The one thing I would say about that, and um,
we brought it up last week in the and that's
why I thought that the Chiefs were going to hammer
them is that they have not been good in man.
I mean, that's what they play a lot of, and
they can be attacked specifically at J. C. Jackson. I mean,
and that's what the Chargers did, and the Chiefs didn't.
You look at Pat Mahomes numbers. They were good, you know,
I mean, they were great, but they were really good.

(09:46):
And it's when they went against that man coverage. And
now you think about Sean McVeigh you mentioned, and and
his play design and what he's able to do, and
the talent they have at wide receiver in Brandon Cooks
and Robert Woods. Um, that's something they just don't know
why teams don't exploit it more. It's weird to me
they continue to kind of run their traditional well we're
going to run into the center of this line and

(10:07):
now we're off schedule because it's second and eight or
second and nine instead of is going to be a
huge key to this one because if you look at
on third down, you know I left there down, yes,
you do. You know who has a forty seven percent
third down conversion rate that's not not good down? Well,
that's Jared Goff passing on third down in the post.
So I thought you're gonna say converting third downs. I

(10:28):
was like, that's it's great. Seven percent completion on third
down is not good. Confusingly, um, that's down from like
sixty five in the regular season. That's a huge deal.
But the saving grace, the reason that that part of
the reason why like they've been able to win despite
that is on second down he's converting seventy of passes.
So all of these looks they've switched from eleven personnel.
They used to play percent at the time, eleven personnel.

(10:50):
Now they switched to twelve. They've changed the blocking scheme,
changed the looks, but they're actually running the same place
what they do if they run outside zone, not just
because it's a tight end on the on the you
know the depth chart, he's listed as a tight end.
They're actually that's a wide receiver there. So there, it's
the same it's the same look and it's a different result,
which helps the play action, which helps keep Jared Goff

(11:11):
out of those horrible third downs, because if you look
on third down, if Jared Goff gets an unfavorable third
downs third and long, he has the second most interceptions
and turnovers in the league. You know, who's first, Who's first?
P riv you're a guy. There we go, and then
the and the Patriots have five this season. They're tied
for eight on defense in terms of takeaway So that's
you gotta you gotta stay the heck away from third

(11:32):
and long. You cannot put Jared Goff in that situation
in this game. And I'm glad you mentioned Kyle Shanahan
because of course, Kyle the son of Mike Shanahan. And
you think about those Broncos teams and what they were
able to do with a running game regardless of who
it was they plugged in at back. And I'm not
trying to minimize the talent of Todd Gurley. I mean,
he has been the engine of this team's offense, uh
the last two years. But for all the people that

(11:54):
are like, my god, how how are they doing this
with C J. Anderson, just just remember it's the same foundation,
it's the same concepts. It's outside zone, occasional inside runs
and a really good old line, a really good old line.
But that's and that's what I'm saying, So think about
just take your pick. Terrell Davis, you know, Tatum Bell

(12:14):
And I'm not trying to compare Tatum Bell to Terrell Davis.
I'm just saying they could plug guys into this system
and accomplish what they wanted to do and then run
everything off of that. And that's what Sean McVeigh is doing.
I mean, it's the same idea. It was a great
piece in ESPN. I think on ESPN dot com is
where it was about that coaching tree that everyone's focused
on Sean McVeigh. No, this is a Mike Shanahan coaching

(12:35):
tree where these guys learned under And I just bring
that up because that's the foundation of of what mcveigh's
trying to do. And it works, and it's worked for
two decades now, um, and and that's why. And I
use that just to point illustrate that c. J. Anderson
having success shouldn't be a surprise. It's the same concepts
that he's used to. There's also a difference between CJ.
Anderson having sustained success over the course of a full

(12:58):
season than creating playoff structure that is really maximized for
each drive we have to go touchdown or not right,
there's no like strategic reason not to try to do
you know what I mean, Like it's so it's like,
I don't think if c. J. Anderson is that is
on the team next season and it looks the same
as it does this, I don't expect him to average
twenty one yards per game. So sure, So the point

(13:20):
is is you can create great like this is actually
the right time to get a CJ. Inerston because the
even though they run about seventy percent of the time
when C. J. Anderson's on the field, like it's it's
not necessarily like they play fifty snap since since week
sixteen when he when he really joined the team. Then
it's only when they run with c. J. Anderson seventy
percent of the time. It's a run with Todd Gurley

(13:40):
only thirty five percent the time. So teams no tendencies,
So I would imagine in this game that's not what
you're going to see. And one of the biggest tendencies
of course, and I don't mean to to move you
off the ramps to the Patriots, but and that's you
know what happens when James Devlin and Sonny Michelle are
on the field. Oh yeah, just you know ninety percent
of the time that they're either running or faking or
run it's the ultimate. Uh, I think they actually and
the bald to Michelle to run of the time. I

(14:02):
just wrote an article for yeah, for eight percent of
the time when he's on the time, it's the ultimate.
You know what we're doing and we know that you
know and you can't stop it. And it's been remarkable,
and it's very again here we go, we're drawing the
same parallel. The Broncos are featured prominently here. It's very
reminiscent of Elway's two Super Bowls when they leaned on
the run and l Way complimented a rushing attack. Now

(14:24):
you look at Brady's numbers, it's certainly more than a compliment,
especially on third down. But that's it's kind of been
their bread and butter. In this playoff run. It has
been Sony, Michelle, James Devlin and running that fullback lead
and going back to the ram side and if they
get so here's the thing about the run game. So
I went back and I did what's different in the
playoffs versus what's different the Reggaus season for running on

(14:46):
the rams. And obviously Sue and Donald, those front guys
are down linemen. They have been excellent gap integraty has
been great. They've been tackling, they've been like really doing
a great job of the fundamentals, if you will, I like,
I love like cliche football terms, like that's the basic,
very good, fundamentally sound defense travels there you go, oh boy,

(15:08):
you know I love that. But what they've also they've
also done is they've not set up their linebackers for
not success. Right, So they're like, look, Corey Littleton, some
people think he's underrated, good something people I don't. I
don't really know what what you're expecting him to do.
He's fast. But here's what I will say. When when

(15:28):
they've gotten through those down linemen running backs, they have
earned a lot of yards. So it's maybe he shouldn't
he was out of position to make the tackle. Like
when you're past Sue and Donald and those guys, it's
a ridiculous amount of yards you get out. They're not good,
but the front has to stop the run. As their

(15:50):
linebackers are undersized, one of them should be a safety,
one of them probably shouldn't even be out there. And
their safeties are okay there, their corners a key to
leaves a big corner hill tackle. Marcus Peters won't um,
so you have second Basically, you have a secondary that
struggles to tackle, you have an undersized linebacking corps that's
not great, and you've got an awesome front four that's

(16:12):
got to do the work. And that's it. You're you're
being nice about it. I won't be. Those linebackers are
not good when it comes to stop in the run,
and if the front is not gonna do it, they're
gonna be in trouble. Like when you get when you go,
when you're looking at the two run games, it's like,
I trust the Patriots just like it's like who's who
do you trust? More Like, I'll tell you the vulnerability
on the vulnerability of the Rams defense Nicole Robie Coleman

(16:34):
is not a great slot corner. Ah, the vulnerability and
the Patriots, it's it's just different, do you know what
I mean? Like they're they're crossing to me. Yeah, to me.
The vulnerability on the Patriots is outside, you know, man
coverage with their corners. The vulnerability for the Rams is
the running game. You know. And and even you don't
think that Tom Brady's gonna gonna fake Marcus Peters into

(16:56):
blowing a coverage and getting a long touchdown out of
of course he is I mean part Peters goes for
the bait every time uh takes the cheese. Yes, he
does take the cheese. So yeah, I think that's why
you have a high total because I think we probably
feel like, okay, we see these vulnerabilities on these defenses,
which leads us to believe very well could be an
offense leaning game. I think you're right, and I think

(17:17):
that I think, look, here's on one side, You've got
the Patriots are the best at tackling in the league, right,
and then you look at the you look at the
keep to Lee being back for the maybe the Ravens.
I don't mean to do that, but one of those
two teams are those are your two best tackling teams? Yes,
I'm with I don't want Baltimore coming after you, Cynthia.
We'll put that out there as a qualifier, you know what.

(17:38):
I actually, to be fair, you know, I was kind
of only thinking about like the past two weeks, three weeks, right,
So but yeah, no, no, Ravens are amazing at tackling.
There's not taking nothing away from them. But ultimately, Patriots
don't miss tackles. It's very rare. They may give you
a little extra yards. They may like get a little
bit of extra you know, cushion. They rarely beat themselves
on defense, and by rarely I mean like never, like

(18:00):
almost never. And and then when you look at the
like what the rams doing, they can be beating. They
can be targeted like they can be like Julian Edelman
his yards after the catch and Nicole Robie Coleman. That
is a horrible That is a mismatch that you need
to like the middle of the field. Tom Brady is
targeted the middle of the field like thirty five times

(18:21):
in the past two games, which is like thirty five
of whatever passes set right, like, that's a lot, and
eleven of them have been to Edelman thirteen minute white
and ultimately those are the that's kind of the beater.
And so the rotational player Nico Robie Coleman, when he's
in that, I expect him to go every time. So
that's that's kind of the funny thing about this, right
you know, is Peters has struggled this year because they're

(18:42):
asking him to do something he's not good at, which
just plays well. Now he's back on the right. Now
he's back, he's back on the right and he's able
to keep things in front of him. But what I
would do is I would just I would just play
press and I would say, hey, if you're gonna beat
me over the top, congratulations. You know what, Philip Dorsett,
he gashes us or Aleman gets behind us. Great, But
that the idea of giving these guys all this underneath

(19:05):
stuff is crazy. And it's now happened for two weeks
with the Chiefs and the Chargers and neither of them
made adjustments. And I cannot imagine Wade Phillips doing that.
I think he's gonna blitz. He's gonna play press, and
that's where you can get to leave. And Peter's to
rough these guys up a little bit and get them
off schedule, and that will be the and like obviously
Bill Belichicks can't adjusted that, but that'll be the interesting

(19:28):
chess match is can you get this secondary to be
more effective than maybe it has been this year because
of the style of play and how it almost kind
of plays to their favor. Well, secondaries and friends work together.
There's no way to inextricably linked Right and Brady having
zero sacks in the postseason three hits and the Patriots
allowing the fourth viewest quarterback hits this season and by

(19:49):
the way, only five sacks since Week eleven. That's they're
by total. So in wins, Brady averages getting sacked once
a game. In losses, Brady averages getting sacked twice a game.
But it's a little more lopside it than that, just
because of when the sacks occur. But that has led
to a post season third down percentage of sixty. I mean,
it's crazy. Third downs are moving the sticks like that's

(20:12):
a ridiculous taking him off the field, that's a horrible
number if you're trying to beat the page and they're
cashing him in for touchdowns not correct seals. And the
other big one to me here is to um just
the blocking of Gronk. You forgot because he was hurt
and you have just watched in these two games, he's
played like the snaps and destroying dudes. I mean he's

(20:33):
destroying ends. He's not destroying just linebackers. He is wrecking ends.
And and that's the big difference too, is it's not
just the emergence of their two tackles at least you
know Canon and Brown being serviceable. But the idea that
on one side of that line is Gronk just wrecking.
And and Tom Brady does not need three and a
half four seconds. He needs to and you're and you're done.

(20:55):
He cuts you a piece. Actually, it's probably better if
you only give him to Yeah, it works out better
that way. But look if if they are able to
get pressure on Tom Brady, yes, he does have a trend,
and yet it is Yes, it is a real trend.
And against interior pass ressers of the the season. Okay, so
seven touchdowns, zero interceptions, one point seven passer rating on
edge pressure compared to two touchdowns tune receptions with a

(21:17):
sixty three point one passer rating from the interior. Look
at the discrepancy with numbers. Though, like two touchdowns tunterceptures,
the number of attempts with interior pressure has been waged down.
That's why you've been seeing the winds right, like the
number of But you but like I said, if you,
if you split them out, I'm worried about left guard,
and I'm I'm I'm worried about left guard. I'm a
little worried about Shack Mason getting tricked on the right guard,

(21:37):
and I'm a little worried about left guards. Yeah, I
mean to me, it's that that interior has been so good.
It's they've been so but you are you can you
be good seventeen percent? Like so the rams they've generated
seventeen sixteen point six percent interior pressure. That's a lot
more than the rest of the league. So the point
is is like, yeah, you can be good if you're
not able to get effective pressure. But if you're able

(21:58):
to seventeen per set of the time, you're able to
just like handle the middle of their line, it just
becomes a lot harder to certainly. And look, he's the
best that he's the best defensive lineman in the league.
You know, they have not seen anything like the buzz
saw that is Aaron Donald totally agree with you, um,
And they will have to account for that, and they
will choose playing well too. Then you got that's got

(22:19):
a problem. They will account for it. And it'll either
be on Sue to do what he did last week
and have the sack and a half, and it'll be
on Dante Fowler and Michael Brocker's and you know Littleton
and Ebu Coom and those edges are not little Tin
but ebucom to make up for it. You know, if
Donald's getting double and triple team, those other players have
to step up. They didn't earlier in the year and

(22:39):
this year, this this postseason they have you know. So
that's that. And again remember what's the best way to
negate that run right at it and what team has
been better in the postseason then run and right at
it than Devlin and Sony Michelle. Yeah, so that's that's
what makes it so compelling, right, And that's that's why
you run thirty simulations instead of twenty and try to
figure it out. It's so interesting because if I usually

(23:02):
it comes down to like like when when I run it,
like this will be like it'll be like your O
line and defensive password or whatever it is, like something
like that. This one's like very specific for both teams.
Interior oh line is really is really where it matters.
And then perimeter ability to actually spread teams out, which

(23:22):
is where the Rams have an advantage in this one.
The perimeter that perimeter speed, Chris Pop has been fine.
They don't have a number one wide receiver for the Patriots.
They don't mean it's entlemen. Right, So, and that's not
a true like outside presence that draws a defense away
and keeps everything spread out. The Rams defense hasn't allowed
to pass rating over a hundred since week eleven. That
was the Chiefs, So like that's crazy. The funny thing

(23:44):
about it, though, is like just go bad. And that's
just why I just I can't. I can't doubt the page.
I just can't have my gut is like Patriots. But
the math for those listen giant. The interesting thing about
that is when you look at the Chiefs and you

(24:04):
have Chris Long justin Houston d Ford, do you like
that three man attack more or less than Aaron Donald?
And then where I don't know who you just picked.
Do you want Aaron Donald? I guess you would take
maybe Sue and Fowler? Do you want able come and Fowler?

(24:24):
Like how do you want to design your two edges?
And you're into the point I'm getting that is I'll
take the Chiefs, I'll take those three. I'll take Long
up the middle. And how effective he is and how
long he is, And that's why a lot of those
passes you mentioned, because he's so good at getting his
hand up. If he's not going to get You're right, yeah,
so like and they couldn't get to him. But look,
Chris stounds not Aaron Donald, like like you just have

(24:48):
you have to create. You have to have three guys
to always have an eye on where Aaron Donald. You're
fine whatever, and his little swim moves right like Aaron
Donald will crush yourself. Don't disagree. Chris Jones is getting there.
If you I'm not gonna He's not gonna stop your
soul and running. What I'm saying is, if you decide
a double Aaron Donald, do you trust that those other

(25:09):
because that's what they started doing. That's what they started
doing to Jones as they started doubling him when he
was effective and Tom Steel got rid of the ball
with with d Ford and Houston bearing down on him. Um,
that's but it's a lot easier to get rid of
the ball. Look at the space in the defense when
you're in third and two or second and two compared
to when you're in third and seven, third and eight.

(25:32):
Look at the space for your receivers. Look at the
space for in the middle of the field. You can
do that little dump off to Edelman in the middle
third section of the field. That's where the difference becomes
really dramatic, because that's the difference between like if you
have if you have no threat of the run, like
if you if you're third and long, you're not really
defending the run in fact, like it's it's just your

(25:55):
schedule and going after him. Right, you just have a lot,
it's a lot easier to generate a rush, right, But
like it's a or it's more predictable to generate a rush, right.
But they weren't in that situation. I guess the you know,
and again this is I feel like I'm making trying
to do everything I can to make a case for
the Patriots. I'm not. I'm just I keep kind of
looking at it. Right. So, yes, the Rams defense managed

(26:18):
to stop Zeke Elliott and the Cowboys who had been
playing well, had been running the ball well, um, and
then they managed to stop a New Orleans team that
had Alvin Kamara and mark Ingram and that running game
got nothing going. But we had seen the Saints have
been struggling offensively for four straight weeks. They had not
been the same they had, I mean essentially had fallen apart.

(26:40):
They were down fourteen nothing to eat to the Eagles,
a team that wasn't that great defensively, that was able
to man handle them for the majority of that game.
A couple of breaks is how they got out with
that victory in the first place. The Patriots knocked the
hell out of a Charger offense that had been humming,
had been balanced. They knocked the hell out of a
Chiefs team that was the most explosive offense we've seen

(27:02):
all season. I just feel like they're it's easier to
believe in them than it is what we saw from
the Rams and the opponents they had to face, if
that makes any So, I know exactly what you're saying,
but you also have to remember that at some point,
like we have, um, what is it like, you know,
recency bias? Right, So we saw some pretty like you

(27:23):
feel like, I mean, first of all, last week could
have gone either way for either team, Like, like, you
can make a very compelling case neither of them should
be here. The Saints should have kicked a field and
well and the Chiefs spun by three inches. D Ford
lined up so wide, didn't realize he was in the
neutral zone. They should be here, Like, yes, you can
make a case that both teams should have lost their games,

(27:44):
no question. And then you also can make this argument
that Tom Brady's the goat, and you can't take because
he is, but you can't take away the fact that
nobody crushes the super Bowl more than Belichick. And by
absolutely there's no disputing that, right, Like there's like I'm
not I'm no way, shape or form saying that the
Patriots aren't the best at the super Bowl, Like they're great,

(28:04):
they're great at super Bowling. It's a verb now, so
they're they're the best at it. So but ultimately it's
when it comes down to this one, and you're totally right.
But if you also look at the Patriots losses, like,
I mean, they weren't even in it for the second
half of their losses, they weren't even in it. No,
they were all on the road and they were against
some mediocre teams. Um, you know, the Pittsburgh game was weird, Uh,

(28:24):
just straight. The Lions game was they just got hammered.
Tennessee was weird Tennessee and and and it was so
weird that it brought up a conspiracy theory that Bill
Belichick was willing to give his former protegees wins to
try to bolster his non existing coaching tree. Nobody loves
a conspiracy theory more than me, but that's ridiculous. Anyway,

(28:45):
it makes perfect sense to me. Alright, keep going, I've
been in No, you're good, but but ultimately I just
the other the thing that like kind of the only thing,
Like when I look at some way, I stand back
and look at it, and it's like, you remember Matt Ryan,
just like you started off that saying Matt Ryan is
not Tom Brady and even though he went to Buss
College and um and he was able to jump out

(29:07):
to that early lead and he it's this one is
about the Rams. Can't make any mistakes with like weird
play calling at weird times. That's gonna be a huge
key in this one. Like no, like like I do
think a team goes for it and there's a two
point conversion, and I think it's probably the Rams. I
think we see some tricks. I think we see someone
other than a quarterback, like at least take a passing attempt.

(29:27):
I do think we see some of the tricks, but
it's about those weird like Okay, it's the beginning of
the third quarter. Remember the Eagles, they burned a time
out way too early. It's about clock management. It's about
keeping those drives clean. Like Ken Jared Goff here, because
if Jared Goff can't here, he's gonna be able to
hear it's a Super Bowl, I don't but a bunch
of fat cats sitting in their suits and smoking cigars
and drinking cock the old fashions or something. You know,

(29:49):
it's not the Super don't. But if it doesn't, like
if there's anything you know, because Sean McVeigh drained the
play cock down, that's his strategy. And you could see
Jared Goff who was holding his ears, what he's gonna do?
I mean, I would assume what Bill Belichick is gonna
do is what the Bears did, and that's not show
their defensive until after that is turned off. We're gonna

(30:11):
wait till it's turned off and then they'll make their
adjustments and they're going to force Goff to have to
make a decision exactly. So that's that's where it's going
to come down. You said that done by the way.
Uh wait, I mean, look what happened with the Bears game, like,
but the but the point is is they're gonna it's
gonna come down to expertly managing the situation. And the
difference in this one is that old line that stands

(30:33):
in front of Jared Goff and the options that Jared
Goff almost doesn't know what he doesn't know in certain ways, right,
Like that old line has helped him for the past year,
has helped him just like have this brick wall in
front of him, and that will that will be the key,
like Andrew Worths ability to help Jared Goff identify what
he's seeing on the field, like those those types of things,
and then just trusting what mcveith says because there's no

(30:55):
chance for him to change it where it's like Tom Brady,
he changes things that the line of scrimmage. Could that
be confusing for a rookie like Sony Michelle or a
right guard like Shack Mason, Absolutely, because that's where that's
where things get muddled, right, It's like inexperience, just like
you saw in the Super Bowl where two years ago
with Atlanta and you saw a running back miss his
blitz and that was kind of one of the bigger

(31:15):
things in the game, Like that was picking up a
block for a blitz and that was a big deal, right,
Like so like those types of things like just trust
this process and that let me just think that that's
I guess playing the Super Bowl last year, I mean,
you know, changing and I don't know if he changed
protections or what the protection was, but when you doubled
Fletcher Cocks and allowed I think it was Brandon Graham

(31:36):
to come in and got that strip sack, you know,
that's that's a change, you know, that's I think I
assume it was a change because I anyway, if I
remember right, I do believe that was a play that
he had audibled out of um or at least appeared
to be changing something with the line of scrimmage. And
I think that's kind of what you're speaking to um.
All right, why the over? Are we at that point?
Yet we're there? Why the over? Well, first of all,

(31:58):
because it went down, which is a big deal when
it comes to all these things, but ultimately it comes
out of red zone. Recent recent red zone production is
the biggest indicator of how many points are gonna be
scored in a game. So Patriots red zone not so
great last three games. So touchdown was scored on sev
and also you know they're scoring touchdown at a rate

(32:20):
of over seventy six. So when you look at that
touchdowns are how many points? I don't know, that's the
math I got it. So look, it's all about third
down and touchdown, and they're both trending in the way.
Now third down has an asterisk next to the Rams.
I told you it's really second down that they've been
excellent at. So it's continuing drives and then scoring touchdowns

(32:43):
on those drives, which is why we got to a
higher scoring game. But it's not a ridiculously higher scoring game.
So remember nine plus is fifty seven. So if it
gets some of the crazier than that, it's people to
stay away. Rams have allowed thirty or more points seven
times this season, So there's that. There is that, But
it does seem like a different But if you think

(33:04):
it's gonna be that's this, that would be the record,
I think you crazy. I don't think it's gonna be.
But I do think. I do think the Patriots going
to score points. I do I think there. I do
believe that we'll see a return of that that Rams
defense that was given up a lot to the ground game,
just because you either have to commit to it, and
when you do that, I think Brady is gonna gonna

(33:25):
gash you a little bit. I think Brady throws for
more yards, but I think the Rams win. Well, that
is what the model says. By one seven and a half.
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(34:50):
It is bespoke Post themed boxes for guys that give
a damn. Okay, uh, let's get to you have to
give a damn. That's like, really, that's great, Let's get
to your conversation. All my favorite exciting All right, this
is the most amazing special treat possible. I'm joining here

(35:12):
on the Super Bowl edition of the Game Theory and
Money Podcast with the prototype at the safety position. Honestly,
you know my obsession with this player. I couldn't be
more excited. Jamal Adams, thank you so much for being
a part of this radio rose a mess. You've done
ten million interviews. So grateful for your time. Really really
happy to have you. Glad to be here. I'm excited,
you're excited. So let's get this out of the way.

(35:32):
You have to do something for Pepsi here. Yeah, so
I'm here with Pepsi my second family, and we have
a snackbot, which is a machine robot. It's a robot
that does everything, and the best thing about it is
it gives you Pepsi products, but it also gives you

(35:54):
Dorito's right, because Doritos are Pepsi product, the best, the
best snacks possible. And also it runs itself, so you
don't need anybody to run it, so you just tell
you what to do. You're telling me I can get
snacks without having to do anything. That's actually like some
of the best news I've heard. But I know that
you're an avid listener of this spot, of course, and

(36:15):
you know that we bring up the safety position and
how you're the prototype, and it's really interesting when we
talk about prototype, at least you know, for the listeners,
it's like, well, what do you need a safety to do?
And I think that's it's kind of a confusing position
for many fans, Like we see you like you know,
sideline to sideline, tracking back and forth. But one of
the things that makes you so special is like we
actually have a heat map of all the different places

(36:37):
that you lined up. That's like I'll tweet out this picture.
It's like pretty much the whole field, which is super
impressive because one of the things that safeties have to
do really well as ball tracking. So can you explain
to us like you're lining up in all these different positions,
like how do you figure out from pre snap to
what your assignment is? Well, you know, obviously my job

(36:57):
is a little different than you know most safeties. Um.
You know, obviously I'm around the whole field. Um, but
I like that because you know, I'm in a mix
of everything. Um. To me, i call it the gautlet.
I called it the trenches with the D line and
old line. I'm in there, and then I'm also in
the back in the outfield. You know, I'm at corner,
I'm at safety, man Nickel. It's just all the above,

(37:19):
and I'm blitzing. I'm just doing it. I'm doing a
little bit of everything, and um, you know that's what
I think that separates me, you know, from from the rest,
is that I can do it all, um, and you
know I can do it to the best my ability.
And uh, you're always gonna get a football players and
go out there and give us all. So you brought
up the slot, which is super interesting, especially because as
we see sort of like the evolution of football, we
see wide receivers lining up in the slot, we see

(37:39):
running back sligning of the side, we see tight ends
in the slot, and then we see you defending all
these different body types scalability possible, like different routes, all
these different things like and the slot especially. It's not
necessarily something like a safety traditionally correct correct, Yeah, most
definitely you you obviously most safeties. Um, you know they're
not the best cover guys. But I pride myself on,

(38:01):
you know, my covering because you know it can separate you. Um,
and it's very unique to my game. Um. So when
you can be aggressive in the box like a linebacker
and then you know cover like a corner, I think
you know that that sets you over the top. So
as we see more of these pass catching running backs specifically,
like how do you adapt your game too? I mean, look,

(38:22):
we know which division you play, and you have to
deal with everyone from like you know what the Patriots
are doing every single season, like we see with Sony
Michelle and James White and all these different sort of
use cases. And then you know, you try to mix
it up and you see a lot of different looks.
So how are you adapting as you see more of
these kind of like this is my running back that's
used in the past game like James. Yeah, So obviously,
you know, nowadays they're using running backs like receivers and

(38:45):
you gotta have linebackers on running backs covering them, or
you gotta have a safety covering them. So it's a
little bit, you know, it's it's different than how it
used to be. Um, guys are going in, oh one personnel.
It used to honestly just be down here running the ball. Um,
you know, uh, twelve personnel, uh, levin personnel, just keeping
it simple. And now they're they're they're making the game interesting.

(39:06):
To me. It's an offensive game and Um, as a
as a defender, you love it because you know, you
just gotta you gotta you gotta change up your game
in a way and you gotta be you know, well rounded,
should I say, because nowadays they'll find your weakness and
they'll check it. Okay, So when you're looking at these
two teams, obviously you have more experience playing the Patriots
because they're in your division. What's like if you're game planning,

(39:28):
and you're telling us, like, what are the safeties for
the Rams doing right now to prepare for the Gronks,
to prepare for what you're gonna be? Well, you hit it. Uh,
preparing for grounk. That's the main thing. Yeah, doing it,
doing a little bit of yeah, doing a little bit
of everything. I think right now he's he's gained his
confidence back. Um. You know, I think he's playing at
a high level. Um that you know, most people wanted

(39:50):
him to play throughout the whole season, but you know,
for whatever reason, you know, he just wasn't playing like
the grunk as everybody knows. And right now he's playing phenomenal. Um.
So you know, you definitely gotta slow here down and
you also gotta you know, you gotta disguise versus Brady.
Brady is obviously the goat um and if you if
you sit in two coverages, it'll definitely be a long
day for you. But if they if they can get

(40:12):
pressure and uh, you know, distract time a little bit
and make some plays on the ball and slow down Grounk,
I think they have a great chance. Okay, So like that,
So what is the single toughest trade to defend. Is
it speed? Route running? Toughness? Speed and route running is
two things that can go together because if you if

(40:32):
you get a guy that you know it's fast, that
can run great routes, Yeah, that makes it, that makes
them that much more dangerous, you know what I mean?
And Uh, as a defender, you we don't know where
you're going. We just know through film study. We have
an educated guess. Should I say? But if we don't
know where you're going? And uh, you know you got
you get the Tyreek Hill going, you know, full full blast,

(40:53):
um like he always does. Um, It's it's kind of
tough to defend. Okay, who's the scariest person to defend
in this matchup? Is it Gronk or is there anyone else?
Maybe like the best of the Um, you know, Gronky
is definitely up there. Um, I went against Travis Kelsey,
but for me, Antonio Gates Okay, legend Hall of Famer.
That's a that's a great answer I was not expecting
to do with. And is it body type or like

(41:15):
just he uses his body his body was He's physical. Um,
he can run great routes. He'll he'll he'll lull you
to sleep in his route running. But at the same
time he's running, he's running a phenomenal route and he
has for sure hands. Um, he's one of the best. Okay,
So we're gonna pick some things here because that's what
we do here, like we pick things. We use math,
and then we like we kind of like say like, well,

(41:36):
we're going to take a side on this, right. So okay,
do you think we're going to see any successful two
point conversions in the Super Bowl? I believe. So it's
gonna be something special. Every year, every Super Bowl there's
one or two plays that go down in history, and
something special is gonna happen. I just don't know what

(41:58):
team is gonna do it, but it's gonna be special. Okay.
So scariest person on the defense of either team is
it Aaron Donald? Is it A D? Gets that all
day long? Any chance you think we see a defensive
m v P of the Super Bowl the way the
way A D plays the game? So I believe. So

(42:20):
if they if if obviously he's going to show up.
He shows up every week. Uh, he demands a triple team,
double team, whatever it is. Um, And you know he's
a ball player. Well, a lot of people double and
triple and try to account for you and figure out
what's going on with you. So you understand how that feels. Right,
I love it. I love it. Give it to the
defensive side. I love it. Alright. So spinning forward to

(42:41):
next season, because obviously we have to go there. We are,
we're excited for the Jets already. What do you think,
new head coach, new situation. You have a quarterback who's
now no longer rookie in entering a second season. I
actually I'm thinking, does your run game get any better?
Any any news on that? We'll see we can get
U or something like that. That's you know, that's maybe yeah,

(43:06):
I heard maybe somewhere you were lobbying for this, right yeah,
I mean most definitely. But we have you know, great
backs there now. Obviously you know Eli Cannon Um, you know,
it's bp um. There's so many guys I say, it's
so many guys that we have that that that can
run to run the ball. I just think, you know,
obviously Levan Bill can bring a you know, a unique
uh you know weapon to the to the Jets to

(43:29):
help Sam out, to take some pressure off of him
and give him another weapon you know to look for.
I love a complimentary aspect, right, Like you have to
stop the run. Like the two things that help predict
wins aren't the sexiest from like a math standpoint, right,
it's like, is your O line and your ability to run? Like,
does that compliment your ability to stop the run? Teams
that can do that they win more often. That's just

(43:50):
it's the way that it works, right. I strongly believe
that because again, you're you're keeping the defense on his toes.
We don't we don't really know what you're doing. You
could run the ball, you could know the same formation
which you could pass the ball, or you can you
can set it up about you know, a play action.
So it's a lot of things you can do when
you get certain guys like that. He's he's a huge
weapon and a phenomenal player. So you were one of

(44:12):
two safeties drafted one too, right, So you're number six overall,
which in my opinion is actually too low. So you're
one of one of two, right, and we've seen some
like unique use cases. By the way, Todd Bowles, we
love him on this pot. He came on last season
at the combine. We talked about you, well, I love him.
He's gonna be great in Tampa Bay. Like, and you
don't have to play him, so like you can cheer

(44:33):
for him when you're not anywhere him, right. I love him.
He's wonderful and obviously he has disproportionate knowledge of defensive
backs from his own playing history has learning from him
and also like having to safeties, like you're a learning
curve just has to be amazing and fast. Like we've
seen your progress obviously. You know. Look I I we
talk on this pot all the time. How you're the prototype,

(44:53):
so we know that, but it's like you got a
chance to do it with you know, your second round
pick also a safety, so and learning it's phenomenal. You know.
I was very fortunate, you know, Marcus and I were
very fortunate to you know, be coached by coach Bows
and you know have a have a wonderful defensive back
coach Gan or Wilson. Um, you know, teach us the
game and help us, you know, elevate and get better

(45:14):
each and every you know, day, each and every week. Um.
And you know I don't take that for granted. Um.
You know, even though he's gone, I'm definite he's still
he's still he's still there, you know what I mean,
He's still I'm still hear me in my ear coaching
me up. And um, you know, I'm excited, you know,
for our future as the Jets, and I'm definitely pulling through. Okay,
how many wins next season? You're gonna call that number?

(45:35):
Hopefully just a winning season. That's the plan, alright, like that,
I can't put a prediction. And then who wins the
Super Bowl? If l A slows down grunt and puts
pressure on Brady, l A wins. If they don't, Brady
and the bunch takes it again, keep it fair, all right,
Thank you so so much, Really appreci appreciate great stuff

(45:57):
as always, love Jamal Adams mascot killer that he is
the biggest sporting The end of the year is coming
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(46:19):
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(46:39):
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draft kings dot com for details. All right, let's go
to your model for individuals speaking of that, because Cynthia, listen,

(47:27):
I when I went to business school, you you learn
this thing called your optimal portfolio theory, and so I
used optimal port folio theory here to give you a
good expected to return for each player, and then furtherre
and and basically it takes all of the parameters that
this captain thing needs. So okay, what the point the
projection expected It uses your it's my wife star, my

(47:47):
optimal personally Okay, your hy Starr optimal portfolio. Let's start
your captain cost kowski interesting, so you do like a
I gotta wind here because I may not be the
sharpest guy on this podcast, but I do have a
decent memory. And I recall you talking about red zone numbers,

(48:08):
which we're both at se allowed defense that would lead
me to believe no field goals. So why is a
kicker my captain when I got red zone numbers like
the ones you shared earlier. So the constraints of this
game require you to have a maximum of like the
way that the salary salary cap here is a constraint

(48:30):
to the game. So one and a half times for
the points earned is one and a half times for
the salary. So it is you have. The salary gets
bumped up too, so if you want what So, what
I found is that if you jam a lower priced
option into that captain speak and you get the one
and a half times for like, it's almost like like
hey cool like upside, and then the rest of them

(48:52):
you take them Biggins there So Edelman, white Woods, Girly, Goff,
go go play Edelman white Gurly. Okay, wait, that was
so fast, but the folks write it down your captain,
because you have to pay the one and a half. Yeah,
the times you get the big dogs. You can have
five big dogs if you take one. If you think
you want one and a half points for Tom Brady,

(49:14):
you're gonna have to pay one and a half times
the salary. That severe limits what you can do. Right,
So Jared Goff's ten thousand or whatever, so you'd be
paying fifteen thousand for him. How much was Brady? Do
you remember more than more than considerably? No? A little bit?
And you like Cough more than Brady for because I'm look,
this is optimal portfolio theory here, so all about expected return.
So if it's like twenty yards less passing, that doesn't

(49:36):
equate to enough extra points where you to pay you know,
two grand less or whatever, and you're not concerned at
all about Todd Gurley's knee and c J. Anderson taking
all that from him at nine thousand bucks. No, I'm
gonna push back on your own because you know folly
on sad. Rather have Sony Michelle than Gurley. I think
you can take. I am perfect. I'm taking Devil too.
He's gonna get two touchdown that full. Now you know

(49:57):
who's gonna get It's Core Daryl that's gonna get I
was actually thinking about shoving him as my captain. I
mean my other choice for captain Cordelle Paterson pr it
is okay, that makes perfect sense? Thent you so that? See?
I need to get all the information first? Ignorant in
this fine. So here's here's a strategy. I'm telling you,
this is the best I found. Gotta get Curly and white.
If you're got to get pr Gurly, why you want

(50:19):
the PPR one and two? You want? You want to
factor that into for that captain. It could either be
someone like Corderyl. It can be Gotzkowski. I wouldn't do Zerline.
He's been hurt. I don't know what the heck is
going on with that, So just to me, that's too scary.
So you gotta get one of those people who was
very low pressure. Gerald Everett was another one. I shoved
in there to try to see what could happen. So

(50:40):
you gotta remember Captain low Ball, then the rest get
all of the big options post. Here's what I'm doing.
I'm with you. I'm gonna put Tommy in there for
golf thought, Yeah, because I still have some room left. Yes,
if if I can, I'm gonna move Woods out and
put Gronk in, just because I have no idea. I

(51:01):
like the Gronk too. I just I want to split
that's even between New England and Los Angeles, so that
that's kind of more what I value love Edelman, love
girly with the PPR love White. Um, I guess that's true.
You balance that out a little bit, but I assume
because you don't want to. You don't want to vulture
your think right like white can white. If you have
White and Edelman, you don't also want Gronk, right, because

(51:22):
then you're way too much in the middle of the field. Yeah,
probably right, But then see Gilmore is probably gonna shadow
cooks and that's where Woods comes in. See that's why
I'm staying away from that. So you Woods, you had
a chance to research this. I'm doing it from the fly,
a severe disadvantage. I wrote a model for it. I
could actually pull in anything you want here, A little
thing will pop out. Dan, there's your wife, Star. Listen.

(51:43):
Your model is loyal to you, not gonna cheat on
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(52:45):
game Theory. Get Roman dot com Slash Game Theory. All right,
a couple of props. Let's have some fun to Oh no,
we're turning the table on you. Round this thing out, okay,
because I am playing the role of Matt money Smith
host and you are playing analysts. Alright, ready, okay, alright,
So rating Belichick eight Super bowls together, you know many
points they have in the first quarter? Total? Three? Interesting? Okay,

(53:06):
do they score a touchdown in this first quarter? Se
right zone touchdown rate. I've got to decide whether or
not Matthews later is gonna win because they're they're the visitors, right,
they are the visitors, so they will We're getting it.
We're getting into that later leads. But they just they
it's not the first point, it's do they score? I know,
I know, I'm just saying, I'm trying to figure this

(53:27):
out because if they I'm gonna I'm gonna project they
win the coin toss, because they always win the coin toss,
and I'm gonna project the date differ instead of receive,
and that leads me to believe that they will not
score a touchdown on the first quarter. Okay, you're going
to know, I'm going yes, perfect, all right. Will they
show Gazelle more or less than two times? So I

(53:47):
think me one time or two times two or more
that one and a half, so I'll go over yep,
me too on that one. Okay. Will Goskowski's first kick
be a touchback? Yes? Or no? Indoors? Yes? I have
that he tends to rock at those. Already told you
my answer for that. But do you believe there's gonna
be a successful two point conversion? I do not. Okay,

(54:11):
do you think there's gonna be any missed extra points?
I do not neither. That one's like the one in
the model. The model is like you know what the
extra points? Great? All right, listen, gatorade color or the
color of the liquid thrown on the winning coach. After
no color is in the lead, then lime, yellow or
green is a second than orange, is tied with blue,
than red, than purple? Which one do you pick? Color?
No color than water? Lately it's blue. Both teams are blue.

(54:35):
That's what I have. More or less than nineties six
total commercials. No idea, Absolutely, no idea. Well there's been.
There's been fewer the past three years, but I think
there's gonna be more. CBS typically has more commercials during
their broadcast. So there you go. Who Okay, now the
coin toss? All right? Oh? First of all, first team

(54:56):
to score in two thousand and ten, first team to
score is a seven in one, the exceptional way to
go Falcons. Alright, So now the one everyone's been waiting for,
the coin toss. Okay, teams to win the coin toss
are twenty four and twenty eight all time in the
Super Bowl. Last year was heads, the four years prior
were all tails, and the last four flip winners won

(55:17):
the Super Bowl. Okay, So I have like a little
history here of the Patriots and the Rams historical coin tosss,
and ultimately heads let them down. The most. Three times
they've won the toss and they've called heads. So that's
thirty one. They lost a Packers, Super Bowl forty six
they called heads, lost to the Giants, super Bowl fifty two,

(55:38):
Heads lost to Eagles. So there's a fun piece of
trivia for you and your friends to look at. Is
the coin toss. I believe the Patriots always called heads too.
They do always call but so they either lost it
heads or called but the other all the other years
that they've been in the coin all the other years,
So twenty thirty one they've lost the coin toss, and

(56:02):
then other than losing to the Bears and Super Bowl
twenty they and they've they've won and lost the Giants
two and forty two. But whatever, point being every time
they've won and called it's that old what's that old
correlation causation conversation? I think it's the obviously ber Newly
had this. Bern Newy had this in mind when he
was talking about it. Alight, who wins the coin toss?
I don't pick one? Alright, jeez gosh, man, someone's stressed

(56:27):
with it being Super Bowl week screaming at me. No.
I just love this one. I'll say the Pats win
the coin toss. Okay, are they going to pick heads? Yes?
They always do, so that you mean, then you think
the Rams win this? No? What did we just say
about causation and correlation? No, I think they're going to win.
I am picking the Patriots to win the Super by
how much field goal? WHOA? Okay? Right on what I mean? No,

(56:51):
I'm right ahead of the number. So that tells you perfect.
All right? That is that game theory and money for
Super Bowl. We we appreciate you listening all season. Hopefully
the model does your right in this Super Bowl and
you can sound smart, share some of those great nugs
with all the folks at your super Bowl party that
you are attending, and behave as though you When you

(57:14):
repurpose Cynthia's information, you become the smartest person and the
absolutely majorize hell out of it. What I do, Absolutely
you exactly what I'm gonna do. Take all of it,
use it, especially the heads and tail stuff. Come on,
everybody loves that's what they want to talk out exactly right,
the old C C C of Bernoulli. All right, big
thank you to everybody for downloading UH and sharing on

(57:36):
social media, shoppy our man producing and the enemy of
fun Mark Brady. Also Jamal Adams for hanging out with
you down there in Atlanta. And uh again, thanks everybody
for for doing it all season long. Thank you the
most money. Thank you enough with you two? All right?
Uh good super bowling. I believe bow that didn't you

(58:00):
suggest that it is now a verb? So yes, happy
super bowling everybody,