Game Theory and Money Week 12 Projections

Are you ready for some upsets??? Week 12 doesn't just come with loads of turkey, it also brings a number of NFL matchups that could spell the end of the losing team's playoff hopes. Cynthia Frelund ran 10-thousand simulations on every game, and this week, she's not liking as many favorites as usual, so this is a must listen podcast if you want to accurately navigate your game picks this week.

Patriots-Jets (1:40). Dolphins-Colts (4:40). Seahawks-Panthers (8:40). Steelers-Broncos (12:15). Packers-Vikings (14:40). Titans-Texans (19:15). Bears-Lions (22:55). Redskins-Cowboys (27:15). Falcons-Saints (39:15). Browns-Bengals (43:40). 49ers-Buccaneers (44:50). Jaguars-Bills (46:25). Raiders-Ravens (48:30). Cardinals-Chargers (50:00). Giants-Eagles (52:40). Fantasy Futures (55:00). Confidence Picks (55:55). NFC Playoff Projections (56:40). AFC Playoff Projections (58:30).

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
Welcome to game theory and money, Cynthia. I've decided to
do something different today. Normally, we uh, we grab us
a little bit, list your credentials, and I assume people
may just fast forward through it. So we're getting right
into it, which quick pick? Like that people, huh you
just fast forward at thirty seconds? Not happening, quick pick.
I love it alright, So I think the Patriots are
going to have a very very convincing win. Like I

(00:22):
think you know, it's a big number already nine and
a half. That's a big number. I think we go
even bigger than that. So there you go. No faith
in the Jets huh, it's not about that again, the
Patriots continue to kick the Jets around. It's it's less
about like no faith in the jets, as is about
increased health in the in the paths. We'll get into
that a little bit later. But I think it's a
get right game for the lot of a lot of people.

(00:43):
Actually had someone at dinner accost me not I shouldn't
say it costs. My friend Steve came up to me
while I was a Taco Tuesday with my family and said, uh, hey, man,
what do you think I give up digs. I get Gronk.
I'm the number one team in the league. I need
a tight end. I got depth, and I said, man,
I just don't know if I trust it. I don't
know if I trust it. That's a lot of injuries.

(01:04):
All right. We go from that to the introduction, game
theory and money Week twelve. Big thank you for all
of you who are listening, downloading, streaming. Uh if you
don't know, Cynthia ten thousand simulations on every single game
because she is a predictive analyst and one of the
damn best at it. Last week not so good, six
and seven against the spread. But these things happen right
on the year, and this is important. You are making

(01:25):
up ground, and your confidence picks in the A are
are coming alive. Two and one on your confidence picks
last week. And I do believe in all of the
pushbacks I gave you last week. Um, I think that
was about fifty fifty if I remember, right. Okay, so
let's go to freelance favorites right away. We got Patriots
at Jets. You already gave us the quick pick there.
You like them, the numbers nine and a half. You

(01:46):
like him? Buy more than that, and looks like your
simulation has that in quite a few of your run throughs. Yep,
I have the Patriots winning in seventy eight point two
percent of the sims and the most likely score being
twenty nine to eight teen. So that's eleven, which is
more than nine. Considerably more, I would say. And you're
just just as someone who is now able to interpret
your simulations and extra point in halfs pretty big number. Huge,

(02:08):
And I know you're like the huge huge, It's huge, Okay.
So when I went through, actually I wrote an article
on NFL dot com. You can go read. It's NFL
that comes last Freeland. It's about like four things for
the playoff teams, the four playoff teams that have freelance,
four things. You know. I can get behind that because
it's a darration. So there's four teams that are pretty
much a lock to make the playoffs, so the Patriots

(02:30):
and the Chiefs from the a f C, and then
the Saints and of course the Rams from the NFC.
But I looked for one key thing for each team,
and this one actually factors into the Jets too, because
this is not the most exciting game on our slate.
Necessarily um and but look, let's talk about this injury report,
most specifically left tackle Lent Brown. Lent Trent Lent Brown.

(02:50):
It's early. We're doing this early on Wednesday before Thanksgiving.
Love it. Trent Brown, l Brown, Lent Brown, and Jack
Mason the right guard. So in the loss of Tennessee,
both of these guys were out as we're two tight ends,
so Jacob Hollister in addition to the one gronk that
you talked about, and Dwayne Allen got hurt in it
and Julianna get hurt. But I really want to talk

(03:11):
about the tight ends and the old line O. Line
depth is gonna be the key for the Patriots in general.
So when you see the way that they use twelves,
which is two tight ends sets whenever they they're using
the tight ends to create a different offensive look, so
that they're that they're keeping Tom Brady out from pressure.
So you don't see what happened happening with the Titans.
And by the way, once they got down considerably then

(03:33):
they just didn't show us anything in the second half.
So again, Patriots had a bye last week, so I'm
you know, harketing back one more week. Before that, and
that's what you saw. So you saw absolutely nothing of
use in the second half and a lot of injuries
and O line depth is the thing to watch going forward.
It is pretty hard to push back on anything considering
where the Jets are right now, when you assume the

(03:53):
Patriots gonna bounce back after a disappointing week plus they're
coming off by all that sort of stuff. And James
White's the guy if you want, if you want to
trade for someone in fantasy, that's a great kind of
you could maybe get for for a steel It's James White.
What do you think of that deal? By the way,
because they get at Seattle, Miami at Detroit. I told
him not to do it. I'm like, I'm not trading
Diggs for for Gronk. I suggested he go after George

(04:17):
Kittle instead, just to make this so specific that nobody
listening even cares. But I would go Kittle over Gronk
for sure. I would even probably can. And he don't
have to give up Diggs to get him any anyway.
Yeah no, no, no, no, no, alright, So I made
the right move, he did, all right, so quick pick
out of the way the first game out of the
way another Freeland favorite Dolphins. Way, that's a lot of points.
So it's it is over a magic number of forty

(04:38):
six if that's the magic number you think about. So
how about this. You got Dolphins at Colts. We got
Ryan Tannehill back there taking snaps once again. Oh joy,
I saw our dear friend Henry Hodgson, Hank, the famous
Hank from the Dave Damashek Football program and one of
the main men when it comes to the international series
here at NFL Network and NFL dot Com. Uh. He
wrote something I think to the tune of that he

(05:01):
was emotionally vacant after watching the Monday night football game
between Pat Mahomes and Jared Goff and then reading that
same night that Ryan Tannehill would be making a return
as a Dolphins fan. Dolphins touchdown October Dannie am Doula
was the throat. By the way, I would like to
point out he predicted that the touchdown might be thrown
by one of their wide receivers on a fantasy show.

(05:23):
So Dolphins the Colts, big number. Colt's favored by ten.
But man, they're playing some really good football right now.
Remember what segment this is in Freeland's favorites. Yes, yeah,
so I got Colts. That's one more. That's that's eleven.
It turns out there turning it up to eleven, turns
out here's the two reasons. Colts on third down fifty
two pc. That's first in the NFL. You know my

(05:44):
model loves third down. And why are they so good
on first down? It's their O line. No sacks given
up in one, two, three, four, five games. Turns out,
as we've said before, Andrew Luck better thrower went upright
as opposed to on the ground. It is really I mean,
it's a markable what what Chris Ballard has done with
that team this quickly? It was it was bar none,

(06:05):
hands down the worst offensive line and defensive football. But
Nelson was maybe worth that high pick. Well, I just think,
I mean, and look, you're not going to remake an
offensive line with an interior alignment. I mean, the thing
he did as a whole, that unit, you could argue
is the best in the NFL right now. I mean,
I think Andrew luck has a few at sacks I believe,
and Uh, as you mentioned, you want to talk about

(06:28):
someone that can pick you apart if he's kept upright,
Marlon Mack has become an extremely effective runner. They're using
tight ends. We mentioned this last week, like he did
it Stanford and now t Y Hilton's emerging. Um the
only thing, the only thing in this one. On the
other side, I actually have frank Or rated higher than
Kenyan Drake. I don't know if you're a fantasy listener,
that might be interesting. It's not because it's a revenge game.

(06:50):
Although it is a revenge game, which is kind of funny.
But like frank Or could have revenge against anyone a
lot of different teams. So I think I think that right,
I think that it's the I think it's just ultimately
Adam gas is going to need to get a little
bit on early down, going to keep Ryan Tannehill or
Brock Osweller out of trouble on third down. The Colts,
Darius Leonard, that guy can tackle these are You need

(07:11):
to put in your your heavy hitter so you don't
get anyone that's light in the ass, you know, I
know it makes a return. Light in the ass makes
a return two weeks in a row. I'm just looking
at the cold schedule moving forward. Some what I think
they win this easy at home. Spoiler alert. Guess who
we have playoff predictions coming up? All right, then we'll
leave it. I'll leave it. I'll leave it be. We
can do that. We can do that in a little bit.

(07:31):
I'm with you. I think the Colts are one of
the best looking teams now that they have won four
in a row after losing four in a row. UM,
in the NFL, so I should say in the a
f C, which is, by the way, who wants the
wild card? Who wants that second wild card? Raise your hand,
and I mean I'm leaning toward the Colts at this
point my model if they don't win the division, because
they still get to play Houston. As a matter of fact,

(07:52):
you've been around the model a little a little long
so as to become the model as it reads. Um,
as it reads, it looks like you only have two favorites,
that you're only rolling with two favorites this week, that
everything else you're taking points. Listen, we're doing this pot
a bit early again. I follow me on Twitter to
see if something changes. There's actually even one change in

(08:15):
the Thursday game because Mitchell Rubisky may or may not play,
So please follow hard to project that one by the
way if you don't know, super hard to project that.
And also on Sunday we've got it. We've got a
number of things that are still up in the air.
So this is a very early projection without any Wednesday
injury report, without any of these are some key injury reports.
So again follow, follow, follow, follow, follow, make sure I'll

(08:36):
update you all right, Let's get to the dogs. Seahawks
at Panthers. Seyhawks get that big win against Aaron Rodgers
and the Packers at home. They are five and five,
the Panthers big let down? What was that throw? Right?
It was just the Detroit Lions. Get do you have
going to going for two? Though? I mean you're on
the road and they had that, they had the play.

(08:58):
It just was a throw. There you go. That's it's
it's the way to you flam I sit there, eron
throw Sam Newton, Alright, what do you got? So you
have the Panthers are favored by three and a half,
and you like the Panthers by just what to So
I have the Panthers winning in sixty seven point seven
percent of the sims. The most likely score for me
twenty six to twenty four. The biggest reason in this one. Actually,

(09:22):
it's it's kind of interesting when when I went through
I went spent a lot of time on this one,
just because we're seeing all these different how they're using exactly.
I mean, if if Seattle wins, there six and five
Carolina six and five, Seattle on the tiebreaker for the
wild card spots. So yeah, huge. Yeah. So when you
look through things like I don't know, play action, and

(09:42):
you look through how they use the read option, and
by the way, the read option is like that's when
I close my eyes, Cam Newton is the read option. Well,
he's the rushing version of the read option, right, So
it's it's an interesting it's an interesting matchup when it
comes to quarterback type because sometimes people say Russell and
Camera similar. I actually think that Russell Wilson's more like
Aaron Rodgers, which is an interesting different comparable. But ultimately,

(10:05):
for me in this one, it came down to the
fact that the defense for the Panthers. Wait a minute,
say that again. Now on the read option, there are
the two teams you said, there are the two teams
that use it the most. So the Seax and Panthers
used the read option on the highest percentage of run play.
That's crazy, I mean, because I mean the read option,
the quarterback has the option to either keep and run

(10:28):
or hand the ball off. And Russell Wilson's not running
this year. So if they're running the read option, I
got the numbers here for you. He keeps it on
eight point three percent. There you go and cam, which
sounds like more like a legitimate read out. But that's
funny that that that's the way they would describe it
if Russell's not ever keeping it. But I guess just
the threat of him, Well, you're trying to you're trying

(10:50):
to diagnose the defense, right, so when you have that
old line like but that's what I'm saying, Like, you know,
the defensive end crashes and hair comes, you know, that's
that's the mash. You either to side to hand it
off based on your read of the defensive end. But
I'm just thinking, because I know Russell's rushing at a
historic low, we could dress that before. So that's just
weird that that's that's the play that they're anyway right right, Well,

(11:12):
then you're go into play action, so pro pro football
focus is out on this one. So Wilson has the
biggest increase in passer rating and yards per attempt this
season when he uses play action, and Newton has the
third largest increase in passer rating using the using the
same play action, not the same, but the using right
and then Caroline allows the third highest completion percentage on

(11:35):
play action this season. So that's kind of advantaged Russell
Wilson in this one. So there's some really interesting matchups
and it really boiled down to, at the end of
the day, the Panthers offense. So the reason that the
Panthers come out on top, Cam Newton starting to have
more diversity. D J. Moore is like a thing now, right,
So you've got three options, You've got funchs, you've got more,

(11:56):
You've got grigs, Curtis Samuel last week Curtis sam And
by the way, there's this guy Christian mc affrey and
he's pretty pretty good with that. There's too many options
for Cam in this one, and I think Russell Wilson, Look,
they're running for their lives and the Carolina run defense
is has the ability to stop kind of what the
Seahawks are thrown at them. All right. Steelers at Broncos.

(12:16):
Steelers favored by just a field goal at mile high
and you have I have a Steelers closer than expected,
the most likely score and they come out with a
win in fifty five point seven percent of the simulations.
M hmm. Just saw Denver and you know, I hate

(12:37):
seeing it. Yeah, I know, I hate saying it. But man,
the page that the Chargers should have won that game
by absolutely touchdowns. They they played a terrible game. Um
that said, you know, case Keenum, he was great on
those final couple drives. He made you know, passes that
need to be made to move sticks to keep the
ball and the drive alive with no time outs. Um,

(13:00):
and just carved up a defense that it held everybody
in check on their final drives. But man, I just
mm hm. You get the set. It's hard to figure
out what the Steelers are right because Big Bend goes
on the road and he forgets how to play quarterback.
It's the craziest thing. I've never seen anything like it.
Huge third down splits and wins versus losses right, horribly different,

(13:20):
Like if they can clear down for them. It's I've
been looking at the difference between when you win and
when you lose. Another team has a really huge difference
in that too, will bring up later, but ultimately it's
it's third down in these losses, and the Broncos defense
could potentially look the Steelers old line figures to be
it's the best going up against the best pass rush

(13:41):
in the NFL. YEP. So ultimately, for me, this one
comes down to third down and the Steelers get the
win in this And I'm putting the asterix here on
this one. I think Antonio Brown still has a big day,
and I like and I like that that you have
the Steelers winning, but not buy a big number because
that's really been the Broncos this whole season, right, they
should beat the Rams. Had had case Keenum connected with

(14:03):
the Marius Thomas, he was wide open, they had the score.
They should have been the Chiefs one of those two times,
same situation, this pass by case Keenum, and they were
able to hang in tight enough because of that pass rush,
because the Chargers were jetty the whole freaking game because
you're staring at Bradley Chubb and Von Miller and Philip
Rivers through two interceptions for the first time this season.
UM So yeah, like, I like, I I agree. I

(14:24):
hope that makes you happen. I skate home. Yeah right,
like your analysis. Tight game, but Steelers do appear to
be the better team. Anything else, No good Packers Vikings
Sunday Night football, and you're gonna have a deep dive
into this one. On game day morning. On Sunday you
get so much game day morning. This week we get

(14:45):
tomorrow Sunday. It's all the game day every morning. You're
the big time Cynthia. They put you on the they
put you on the tent pole shows, and that's what
you're on game day. So let's go Sunday night. Feel
basically elimination game for the Packers if they haven't already had.
There's zero and five on the road. I don't know
about that, not so fast. They've got four easy ones
left or four of their next five. They're heavy favorites

(15:08):
in so it's all about that. Well, I guess that's true.
I guess nine six and one. If they lose, this
could still get you into a wild card spot. It's
it's this is a this is a really key game.
So in this one, the Vikings are favored by three
and a half. It is in Minnesota. I have the
Vikings winning in fifty three point one percent of the
Sims to score right now, that means Vikings win by one.

(15:30):
But you're taking you're taking the points. I'm taking the points.
Here's the other thing I want you to watch the
injury report on this one for sure. Is Sinda Hoe playing,
Is Anthony Barr playing? Check out the middle of the
Vikings defense if they're If they're out, then that's going
to be a really interesting different matchup, and that could
be something where Aaron Rodgers could diagnose that a lot

(15:52):
better without those key pieces. But on the other side,
you're missing Mike Daniels for the Packers. Now we saw this.
You know, Factra will have a bunch of sacks and
a great pressures last game. But Mike Daniel seventies six,
he's kind of like the He's like, they're Aaron Donald like,
you know, position on that team, so other people get
better with his presence without him those pressures on Kirk Cousins,

(16:16):
which is the way that you beat Kirk Cousins, you
pressure him. We saw that. By the way, why didn't
they what was it with the why did they insist
on huddling like you know what we're gonna let's just
try to lose here. Let's just try to lose. Let's
notice the Vikings no huddle. Hey, guys, you know you
know how we stopped this crazy pass rush. Let school
little no huddle, Right, it's just good tempo. But no,

(16:37):
Kim Hicks was on a mission. Boy, did I picked
that one wrong? Yeah? I thought they were destroy the Bears. Same.
By the way, I'd like to point out, it wasn't
that Mitch Drabinsky carved him up. That's what I got
a lot of twitter now was the defense? The defense?
Just the defense was greatly So here's he's gonna tell
you if the if the Packers defense. So if so, no,
Mike Daniels, we know that for sure, So that could

(16:57):
be again, we got to watch that Viking injury report.
If the defense is there, then it's gonna swing it more.
In favorite of Aaron Rodgers, I do think. So. You
see Aaron Rodgers this season only thirty six point to
completion percentage when he's under pressure this season. That's low.
It's low for him, but it's also low lowest in
the NFL for the thirty two qualifying quarterbacks in this metric.
So that's that's an interesting problem. But if you're gonna

(17:23):
You're gonna see their old line is actually pretty good.
So but if the center of that defense is missing,
he could use a short passes to evade that pressure.
Iade escape. Uh yeah, I think of okay, whatever, you're
the word person here and that works for me. That
this is this is Do you believe in Aaron Rodgers
because clearly the play calling hasn't been there and the
fact that they have an emerging Aaron Jones to balance

(17:44):
out that offense keeps it honest. Um, but I think
yourr spot again with you too much today. I think
this you're You're right, this is one follow you on Twitter.
Health is going to play a big part. It's very
late so des By the a a huge game for
the Vikings. After this, they have to go to New England,
go to Seattle. Uh. They still have Chicago at home

(18:08):
to close out. So that you know, if you've got
a Bear team that is already at seven wins, uh,
and you look at their path to ten at Detroit
for Thanksgiving at the Giants they still have at San
Francisco out there, Minnesota's gotta win this game because you
know it's going to be a struggle on the road.
Against the Patriots and the Seahawks. And the one thing
about so Dalvin Cook, we thought he would get going.

(18:28):
I thought he would get be able to get going.
They would use him creatively. I think they're going to
have to change the way they're using him because Minnesota's
O line has been so porous and so I'm gonna
say crappy that they need to change the way they're
where they're running with Dalvin Cook in order. Mike Daniel
also really good at stopping the run. So Dalvin Cook
look could look better in this game, could be a

(18:50):
big factor. They need to minimize those turnovers. And I'd
point out to you know, don't have too much recency bias.
The Bears defense is that good. The Bears plane and
simple it is that freaking good. So you know, the
Vikings Spangio got them going there. You go well or
less than Vic Fangio, Khalil Mack. It turns out you
put the best pass rusher in the league on your

(19:11):
team and it's healthy. Things are different, a little bit,
a little bit different, alright. Titans at Texans. Texans favored
by six and hard to know again, follow the Titans
injury report and figure out what's going on with Marcus Mariota?
Him factored as in at this and I think that
sounds right. It seems like that's that's the likely case.
But who knows what happened Titans when they went to Indianapolis.

(19:33):
Hope ps is okay. Yeah, I don't like anything to
know that. I think he's fine. He stayed the extra
day for evaluation Indianapolis, made his way back to Tennessee,
so the mrs came up to make sure he was okay. So, yes,
get better, Dean. Alright, So Titans the Texans. You have
Texans winning in sixty two point three, but most likely score. Hey,

(19:56):
how'd you get to that than that? So there's a
couple there's a couple of things. Obviously the Mariota. The
Mariota situation is one to monitor here. But he still
has the fewest passing yards per game and the second
fewest touchdowns in the NFL among the thirty two qualified quarterbacks.
Sounds right. It's unfortunate in this situation because that Texans defense.

(20:16):
But there, you know, there's a lot of similarities. Rabel
comes from the Texans. They know each other, familiarity, it's
the same kind of coaching tree. All these people know
each other. They're all Bill O'Brien, Mike Rabel, they all
and he played for me, worked from They know each
other very well. So the defensive fronts are going to
have really nice tricks. And I don't think I think
Deshaun Watson's gonna I think there's gonna be a good

(20:37):
amount of sacks in this game. But I think ultimately,
at the end of the day, Deshaun Watson's scrambling ability
and his ability to kind of get out of the
pressure puts them on top, so more so than Marcus
as he has shown a reluctance to use his legs repeatedly.
He's banged up at least he doesn't like getting hit.

(20:58):
And I get it. Singers are hurt. I mean, it
doesn't sound like it. You know, Mariota prefers to stay
in the pocket. Pick you apart with the past, he's
not good at that. You are. You are phenomenal when
you get outside and you use your legs because you're
the fastest damn quarterback in the league. But he doesn't
like getting hit. I get it. So that's kind of
what it comes down to with the Titans. If Mariot
is willing to use those legs and take off. They

(21:20):
are a dangerous team because the defense is solid. As
you said, I know you wouldn't know it based on
what you saw last week, but Andrew Luck has been
that special. Uh so with a guy who's banged up
and already down, really like you get down like that,
like you kind of can't look at it the same way.
So and and they we said it before with the Titans,
say it again. When they lost Delaney Walker, they lost

(21:42):
so much of their offense. I mean that that is
it's hard to believe that that that guy could have
that big give an impact, but he does. And I'm
with you, I don't I don't know why this would
be the team that knocks Houston off this streak of
seven straight wins and with that defense and a hoppled
Marcus Mariot. Okay, we would like to remind you before
we continue, as we are here in southern California, and

(22:04):
I know in our new cycle you move on so regularly,
but the California wildfires are still raging. Even though our
first responders have managed to contain those blazes. Uh, they
are still it's gonna go down sadly as a historic
pair of wildfires, the campfire up in northern California and
the Wolsey Fire here in southern California. If you could,

(22:25):
we ask you to help out. You can donate and
help people affected by the wildfires by visiting Red Cross
dot org, or you can just text see a wildfires
to nine and that automatically donates ten dollars to the
American Red Cross of California and their wildfire relief And
they will need every cent of that desperately because you're
talking about so many homes that were lost, so many

(22:46):
people that are displaced, uh and lost everything. So if
you can do it, we certainly would appreciate that. Let's
go to Thanksgiving Day games Spares at Lions. Spares favored
by four. But as you mentioned, don't know what's happened
with Mitch Drobisky in that shoulder, right, So I factored
in seventy Mitch Drabinsky in this one, so that means
he's it's not it's thirty percent. Chase Daniel s Mitch

(23:09):
dr Whisky for the number of snaps that I've modeled
in this and the bears went in the simulations right now,
the most likely scored twenty two. As soon as we
hear more, this will probably shift. But two is where
we're at right here at the time of taping it.
And you know what, you really nailed it before when
you talked about the Bears defense just being that good, right,

(23:30):
number one rushing defense n five points per game. That's
number four takeaways, first points off turnus, first opponent touchdown
interception ratio. Guess what also first. So there's a lot
of there's a lot of things, and I will say
there are some not so great teams that are factored
into this, so I'm not saying that that's why we

(23:51):
you know, it's why I got on my soapbox and
started screaming about the Vikings last week because of what
they had done the previous three weeks against less than
I would I don't want to say not viable opponents,
but less than elite opponents. And they did it last
week against the Vikings, and they did and the Vikings
a line is nothing to write, so um, they don't.
The interesting thing is that they don't really blitz that often.

(24:12):
They ring. That's the key. I mean, they can get
home with four and get home better than almost any
team that blitzes and so and then when they do
though they do have the highest pressure percentage when they do.
And Mac, by the way, five force fumbles. There are
six teams that don't even have the six teams that
don't have as many. That's ridiculous. Yeah, I mean that's look,
that's that's the key. It's something that if you can

(24:33):
get away with rushing for dropping seven in coverage and
now a passing league, it tilts. I mean it tilts
in your favorite dramatically. And when that that's you know,
that's why when you look at the contracts and people like,
really is a defender in two thousand eighteen, this offensive
explosion of a league worth the amount of money that
they gave Khalil Mac not to mention two first round picks,
which is really one because they swapped their second, so

(24:55):
that's likely going to be one of the top picks
on the side. Anyway, The answer is yes, because now
you can get home in with four and it changes
everything you're able to do as a defense because you
can play with six defensive backs if you want to.
Um and and you're seeing it right now, you know
the Bears offense is average to below average, but that

(25:16):
defense is so dominant that they're winning games and are
likely on pace to win at least ten in the division.
And and and it's because they made that trade for Khalil
mack so on the on the offensive, one offensive note
here is that Trabisky has the third He's been pressured
at the third lowest rate, which is less than I thought.
You know, I have to go back and look at
it and like, wow, that's pretty impressive. Zigi Ansa for

(25:38):
the Lions is back, was back last game, so that
could be a little bit of a difference. Maybe that's
one of the reasons why if they take him out
or decide he's not gonna play, like why they don't
really need to win this game to make the playoffs.
Was not saying that you ever take it at Troit,
but if it's if it's winning Detroit and compromise your quarter,
you still got at s Francesco at Siance home against

(26:00):
the Rams and Packers. You know how Aaron Rodgers just
racks the Bears. I got you, But I don't know.
I feel like it's like Rubinsky gets healthy or Erbinsky.
I see what you're saying. You know, I'm and I'm
never an advocate of that, right, We all try to
for every well one thing we know. Whatever happens in
this game, it will not surprise Matt Patricia because he's
never been surprised in football in his life. Even when

(26:23):
the Jets opened up and absolutely destroyed his team. Still
not surprised. Not surprised at all. Alright, Matt Patricia, by
the way, I've moved on. Never surprised. You know what? Like?
What is it like? The opposite of love isn't hate,
it's indifference, right, right? So are you talking about because
I don't even remember you address it with apathy? Um,
Never surprised. One fun turkey trivia for your friends and family.

(26:45):
Chicago has the second lowest point differential in their losses
and their second and highest point differential in their wins
from their wins tiltings. They they it's a very keep
it tight or they crush your soul to be I think,
based on what they did the Lions the last time,
which I believe did not surprise Matt Patricia as well, exactly,

(27:08):
they were likely do again if Mitch Drabinsky is healthy. Alright,
Redskins Cowboys, the old standby when it comes to our
thanks Giving Giving Day games, which I believe started kind
of back in the twenties, I think is when they
go remembering, yeah, exactly, it was a grand old time
back then. It's Charlie Kesley here, there you go. You
see Redskins guy. All right, so go ahead, what do

(27:30):
we got h The Cowboys favored by seven and a half.
And did I mention, by the way, I don't think
I did. Bears favored by four. You have the winning
by three. So I want to make sure there exactly alright, Mitch,
if we were to have Mitch, it would have been four. Mark, gotcha.
So so if Mitch plays, know that it's more than four. Alright,
Cowboys favored by over a touchdown seven and a half.

(27:52):
Cult McCoy plan as Alex Smith put on that uniform, man,
and I feel so bad. Things happen to your legs.
It's incredible. So Cowboys win in sixty six and a
half percent of the sims. The most likely score I
have is fourteen. Okay, so that's that's actually by more.

(28:12):
So we will by that's all right. We'll take that
out of the dog column, put it into Food's favorites,
and you have the Cowboys by ten, so you're good.
I'm confused by this, be no why because I said
the right the wrong number. It's seventeen. That's why I'm like,
wait a minute, that doesn't seem right. Seventeen which is
only seven not seven. And it's so good you corrected

(28:34):
it on our document. That's okay. So how does Washington?
Basically Washington's defense keeps them in this game. I think
that the elusive factor of how they're going to have
to trade their change their game plan with Colt McCoy,
that is really what keeps it kind of close. I

(28:57):
don't love that I'm staying. I'd rather just say that
the Cowboys win then the exact score total. But will
you tell me what do you think is more likely?
Do they win by less than seven and a half
or more than seven and a half? I know which,
I know what your models spit out? What do you think, Cynthia?
I think they win by more too. But but I
why I asked you. I think, listen, the way that

(29:17):
those magic numbers get made is very smart. Like they
hear you doing lean on your model Sometimes when my
model is close to I'm like, well, maybe I'm just
really good at modeling. You know, you are good at models,
thank you, but you know it's like maybe that's the
you know, my issue is with this one with the
with the Redskins as a division leader, and and this
is kind of a I mean, I don't I don't

(29:38):
know if it's a worthy stat because you look at
the Bears and their point differential and it's kind of misleading.
You see, you know that stretch they went on against
the Jets, the Bills and the Lions, and you mentioned
the blowout, so you're like, oh, wow, they got a
plus fifty point differential. Yeah, that's because in those three
games they ended up witting by a combined sixty points.
So it's skewed it. But I just don't like the
idea of a team that's six and three and need

(30:00):
a division with a negative point differential. That's just that's
that to me is one in Yeah, so that's that's
a red flag. And there's another one with a negative
yardferrenial negative to fifty four amongst teams with a winning record.
So that's that's exactly to the Redskins have allowed fewer
than twenty points in six games though, So that's where look,

(30:21):
the model is not saying the defense is dead, right,
all well, I did see on the injury report some key,
some key interior defenders, the down lineman, especially the ones
in the middle, if they're not playing. Basically anyone who
went to Alabama that plays for their D line. Duran Payne.
Is it Darren or Duran? Uh? It is Dan? It
is uh? Yeah, yeah n Payne. Why do I feel

(30:44):
like that it's Jonathan Allen and yet Jonathan Allen that name,
I'm it gets confusing because it's not capitalized twice. Well, no,
you got I got stuck because I was thinking of
Jaron Reid, who's also an Alabama interior defensive lineman who
plays for I believe that Titans if I remember right,
think no, no place for the Seahawks. Sorry anyway, So, yes,
Duran Duran Paint, Johnathan Allen. Yes, Yes, it's early. I'm

(31:06):
still trying to wake early and my coffee hasn't kicked anything. Um,
But if either of those I saw. I saw Duran
pain on the injury report. I don't know how true
that is, but he's on it. So if he doesn't play,
then my model would swing to more than more than seven.
Since we're just gonna throw out names, you know, and
that's that's a trick for those of you that are listening,

(31:26):
for people that do like sports radio, if they don't
really know what they're talking about. Not that you don't,
I'm just saying, like one of the things that they'll
do is they'll just start listing names. Look, Brandon Sheriff. Uh,
you know you've got Colt McCoy and Oh Harris, so
you know Redskins. I mean, that's that's so that's what
I'm gonna do here. But I'm going to point it out.
It's an anecdote, but I do recall flying to the

(31:48):
Combine and because there is, uh there's a giant Um
training facility in Irvine, Um, which is where I kind
of live in Orange County area. So whenever i've flight
of the Combine, because we go early, I'm always with
a bunch of draft prospects because they'll be on that
same flight. And uh, Layton Vanderesh was sitting in the

(32:09):
aisle across from me, and you want to talk about
a football specimen, just the it's weird though, size weight race,
so weird that you see this like monstrous body and
then like a Greek and the I mean the athleticism
when you're seeing it. I mean he has been in
the absence of regularly Shawn Lee talk about a guy

(32:32):
in the middle of a defense that has been a
one man wrecking crew. Uh, he's been special. And if
you can stop Adrian Peterson and forced Colt McCoy to
beat you with that cast of receivers even though they're
starting to get a little bit more healthy and clearly
he was able to do what Alex Smith was not.
And that's remember that Jordan Reid is one of the
toughest covers in the nfl um when Colt McCoy got
in there. So if he's if he's able to help

(32:55):
stop that rush attack, I do think you make Washington
one dimensional and Andy they should be able to get
after him. By the way, if you are a person
who likes to like math, like me, my three favorite
te you're talking to like one person actually know when
it comes to this podcast, a lot of people listening
like yeah, like math, That's why I'm listening. When it
comes to my favorite teams with like their analytics groups

(33:15):
like the people. So I this week I get to
like kind of pick all of my favorite analytics people.
So they have great analytics in Indianapolis, great analytics, and Dallas, Dallas.
My guy, My guy in Dallas is probably my favorite.
Um sorry, I love the other ones too, So you're
another one. Your analysis is skewed to play favorites for
your personal I just get really happy when I get

(33:36):
to and then the third one is coming up to
So if you can remember that, let's go Dallas, you
can do the okay. So so so you are saying,
even though the model, look, my model is saying, as
of right now, we gotta wait and see who's playing for.
Like I honestly, if I just when it's within a
half point, I prefer you then to inject your own
personal opinion if it's that close, and I would think

(33:58):
that the Cowboys are gonna roll. I think Maria Cooper
scores a touchdown, So how about that? Yeah, little's laughing
about our first pick given up? Now, h well, a
lot of people, but that's Falcons at Saints. Saints are
favored by thirteen, which is understandable. It is understandable. Defense
is finally, well I shouldn't say finally, but this defense
is actually showing up for a team that has an

(34:20):
explosive offense, unlike in Kansas City in Los Angeles, and
when you have that offense that's that explosive and a
defense that can complement under points a lot, look the
hell out? Yeah right, I don't know, um Saints win
this one in seventy? Can I mention something on that
by and look who am I to? And I don't
mean to do this, but like I get it. It fits.

(34:41):
And I don't like using the word narrative, but it
fits the narrative. It's like, hey, here's a great redemption story.
It's Marcus Peters. Let's give him the game ball, let's celebrate. Look,
revenge is his he makes the game ending interception. That
dude got torched the entire game. He did nothing for
fifty seven minutes, and he comes up with an interception
because the defensive end hits Pat mahomes hand when he

(35:04):
throws the ball. That's not redemption, that's not revenge. The
man was humiliated on national TV by Pat Mahomes throwing
six touchdown passes. I'm glad he caught the tater that
was put up there for him to catch. To see,
it was a special moment in Los Angeles. It was
a wonderful game. It was wildly exciting. But you don't
need to have Michelle Tafoy interview him after the game

(35:27):
and give him a game ball and all that sort
of stuff. That's ridiculous. Sorry. Look, if you're a sports psychologist,
that's kind of like, I wonder if that's like they're like, wow,
that's really smart. Get him. Maybe he's a guy who
responds better to positive reinforcement. Right, that's clearly the negative
stuff didn't seem to work. But and that's fine that
Sean mcbigh wants to give him the game ball, fine,
totally fine. But the idea that the and it's not

(35:47):
Michelle Tafoya. I'm so sorry, Michelle. It was Lisa Salter's. Yes,
I want to correct that. Um, it was Lisa Salter's
interview in him. It's like, come on, really that that's
not the guy that that That's all right, Falcons. It
saints my my last on that game. You know, it
was awesome, it was a great watch. Well, No, I
don't think that the Chiefs lost. I'm not saying that.
I know they lost. I'm not ridiculous, but I don't

(36:09):
think they lost. I just think the Rams won. Do
you know what I mean, Like, I don't want it
was whoever has the ball last wins. And I don't
leave that game thinking anything less. You know what, Here's
here's here's what. I pushed back on that, and I'm
with you. I don't. I don't leave the game thinking
any less of the Chiefs. But I think the Rams
won that game because and it's something my radio partner
once mentioned, and it's one of the funniest lines I've

(36:31):
ever heard. Uh. He was doing a Texas Tech game
and their defensive coordinator David Gibbs, in the production meeting
said to him, Uh, said to my radio partner, Petros,
within his thick Texas accent, Petros, all I need is
three stops a game, and we can't get him, was

(36:51):
what he said about the Texas Tech defense. And guess what.
That's what it was in that in that game and
that Monday nighter, it was all I need is three
stops a game, and guess what can A city couldn't
get them, but the Rams could. They got the two
strip sacks for touchdowns and three interceptions. And that was
the difference. When you have an offense that's that good.
All you need is a few stops they got them,
Kansas City didn't. And there's there's the three point inferential. Yeah.

(37:14):
So my one last thing, so Mark Brady are are
fearless leader? Asks me how fifty one game impacts the
model for Rams and Chiefs simulations going forward, And ultimately
it's it's all the same. The matchups fifty one. I
mean it's a historically high number of points, so that's
an outlier. Well, it's all the same in terms of

(37:36):
its more changed, right, only the names have changed. I
mean the fact that fourteen touchdowns were scored and the
Bills don't even have fourteen total touchdowns on this side.
It just shows you, how are you scoring points? What's
your ability to score points? Offensive looks, defensive looks, how
to listening? Two things match up and we already knew
they were high scoring teams. It's just more for me.
The only the thing that this, that's the the inspiration

(37:58):
this sparks is to look to see who's to be
the next great defensive mind. And I think it's going
to come from college. So that's that's kind of what
it comes to me. Just the one thing that I
would say, and look, there's a reason why you always
hear people say, look, it's cyclical. The defense is going
to catch up. And the reason why the defense catches
up is because when a team UH begins to perform
and excel on one side of the ball, guess what happens?

(38:21):
Other teams watch the film they borrow, they implement and
install those exact same plays. Because I'm watching it with
Ken Wi Hunt in the Chargers. They had no fly sweep,
no r p O. S Now they do, so guess
what happened? And everyone's into that to be like, oh,
we're gonna spread the whole defense horizontally like that's what
they're doing. So guess what happens up now a defense
using a practice because now you're putting it in and

(38:43):
now they can recognize it when they couldn't before. And
that's how the defense catches up because they now have
an offense opposite them every single day in practice that
is showing them those looks, and they can now understand
and comprehend and digest what's in front of them when
they couldn't before because their offense in their practice wasn't
running any of that, so they don't know what the

(39:03):
hell they're looking at and they're trying to diagnose it
in a game. So that's that's how the defense eventually
catches up it. It likely won't be this year. And
remember this goes back to last year Super Bowl. I mean,
and it just is carried over and now more and
more teams anyway, Uh Falcon Saints. Saints are favored by
thirteen Saints win and seventy two point four Saints win
thirty four, which is eleven. Yeah, it's it's it's just

(39:26):
hard to I have more faith in the Saints than
I do the Rams or the Chiefs right now. Like
I think that to me, that's just one where I
won't be surprised if they win every single one of
their remaining games by twenty five points. Well, they I
genuinely believe they're trying. They're going for all. They're going
for the Drew Brees m VP. They're like, you know what,
We're just going to throw it, yeah, because they don't

(39:48):
want to give them any reason not to. Last season.
Everyone Drew Brees had an m v P caliber season
last season, and they were like, well he doesn't have
as many arts as normal. They're like, what do what
do you need? This need to do so ultimately one
area where the it's defense and this one keeps it
allows the the the Falcons to keep it closer is
the passing game. Falcons are second in passing yards per

(40:08):
game this season, it's like three fifteen a game, and
the Saints are twenty seventh and passing yards allowed to
eight point three. But you gotta remember they're always beating
their opponents by considerable They've been beating their opponents by
considerable amount. So the passing yards are inflated and the
rushing yards are deflated because nobody's running. So it's a
volume thing, right. If someone's passing more often on you,
you're going to give up more yards. It's just a

(40:30):
matchup here. I think another Julio Jones such on by
the way, and I just want to point out just
from generic stats, not advanced analytics, like Cynthia is dealing with.
I'm playing, you know, I'm I'm throwing rocks. You know
Cynthia's building things. Uh, just just look at it. This
matchup is the number one scoring offense, twenty nine scoring defense,

(40:51):
third yardage offense, twenty nine yardage defense, fifth on third
down thirty feet on preventing third downs. First at preventing
sacks getting It's so lopside. That's why everything about the
trenches for the Saints is underrated. Their old lines underrated.
They've kept free breeze out for pressure the most of
any team, and then also their rundevens. It's the like
Sheldon rankings, it's the it's the guys in the middle

(41:13):
like that are just holding it down and that's really
you know, it's it's normally. Yeah, that's the one thing
is like and this is a Chip Kelly thing that
he taught us. And I know his name is persona
grad in the NFL, but one thing he taught us
in college football was time of possession doesn't matter. When
you have an explosive offense. You can try to keep
the ball as much as you want. But when I
only need three plays to go ninety yards, it doesn't

(41:34):
matter to me. As a matter of fact, it's fine,
Um Saints. UM Saints are three, but Kansas City and
Kansas City is one and Rams are two. In that
it's just hilarious. Exactly five plays are less metric and
Saints are three. So don't get what I'm saying is
don't fall into the whole time of possession. Trap. It
doesn't matter if oh, well, this team could run the

(41:54):
ball and keep yours if you if you don't have
a quarterback that is good at through, will score in
four places and your breeze is not who I'm talking
about there. I'm looking at you, Dallas possession. I'm I'm
pushing back on you know. I'm taking the Saints by
more than you know what I'm tracking in this game
eat by Apple because we haven't really seen him be

(42:16):
tested at all. I believe that they've only been trailing
in like five passing plays since the Apple joined the team.
I believe it's five and seven. It's hard with the
penalties to see seven. So I don't know that Ohio
State defense that that's the Ohio State defensive secondary. You
know you had another guy. Let's just just keep adding

(42:38):
them figure it out. Well. But but here's where I
just I hope that we get to see a little
bit more so I can track him, because that's going
to be the key to the playoffs for them, is
that their secondary is gonna be able to hold up.
Beat the Vikings by ten on the road, beat the
Rams by ten. And that was just like, hey, whatever,
they That's what I mean. They certainly they allowed him
to get back into the game on some wacky plays.
They tied it up at thirty five, and then when
they needed to, they added an extra ten. Just hammered

(43:01):
the Bengals and obviously humiliated the Eagles. So I assume
they keep that going. And I'm with you. It's a
great point is that you know, you never want to
you never want to point to individual success over team success.
Because clearly the Saints feel like they could have won
the Super Bowl last year and it just ridiculous play
in Minnesota prevented them from doing that. But I call

(43:22):
it a miracle for nothing. Out there is that relationship
between Peyton and Breeze where you can imagine Peyton sand
look like if this is ridiculous, this guy's never want
a guy like Drew the guy you know that it
on and the My my other thing is that's the
team that they got some good numbers of people there.
Look at their draft the past years. Just exactly right.
All right, Brown's at Bengals. Let's make this one quick.

(43:42):
Bengals favored by it's the huge Jackson versus Greig Williams. Ball. Yeah,
Bengals went in hard to pick someone to cheer for
in that Bengals, so Cleveland keeps it closer than possible.
Why because the Bengals defense past five games five four
yards allowed a game, five hundred and four yards allowed
per game. Okay, worst on worst or thirty feet on

(44:05):
third down, total rushing, passing and scoring defense. There we go.
That's that's why the that's why the Bengals keep it.
That's the Bengals defense is the worst. I think the
Browns win this game, Boddle says, Model says that you're right, Yeah,
but I mean Nick Chubb has been fantastic. It's balanced
out that offense um, you know, and and obviously the
issue they have is is keeping Baker upright in that

(44:26):
offensive line. But as you mentioned, the Bengals defense has
been brutal. He's going to fix it. Q the defense. Sure,
I wouldn't be surprised. I would. I could totally imagine
him walking into a defensive meeting and saying, guys, I'm
here to help. Thanks you. I like there's he has
some defensive experience on his on his University of Pacific. Yep, hey,

(44:47):
you know it's it's something it's more experience than I have,
far too much about that guy's career. Alright, So forty
Niners at Buccaneers, Jamis Winston getting the start, he'll throw
for interceptions and Ryan Fitzpatrick or will place him in
the second half. You have favored by three and a half.
You are taking nine point three percent of the sims.

(45:07):
Niners win four, lower scoring game than one might imagine. Yeah,
I don't think there's a whole lot that's interesting here.
I can't imagine a whole lot of people really focusing
in on this game. So I'll just go sure, five
red zone turnovers, twenty nine offensive turnovers both number one.
That's why the Bucks don't win this game. That's what
the model says. I guess the one trick is how

(45:27):
will the Bucks if in fact, because they're at home,
and look they have they've been decent, uh for like spurts, right,
they just they've never they don't lead in any games
like it's for. They fall behind and then all of
a sudden they throw a bunch of touchdowns that are
meaningless because they're behind thirty five, then nothing, it becomes
like thirty eight, and then they threw two more interceptions

(45:48):
and they lose a game. I'm gonna go with some
piece of sunshine here. You're already something happy happy fortnights
O line, no sack and last two games allowed, and
then they gave up at least one in each of
their first eight games. So they're improving on their O line.
Mike mcglinch is getting settled in. They're really like, that's
a really positive thing for the future. Nick Mullins, as
it turns out isn't Brett Farve. But you know what,

(46:08):
I think in this game, he does get the winter. Okay,
I'm with you. I'll go for as. No, I'm gonna
push back. I'll go Bucks. I'll go Bucks. I'll take
Jamis Winston to make things crazy because he's definitely that.
He's definitely good. They gotta figure out if they're going
to pay him this off season. MS Winston percentage making
things crazy? Yes, got it? Jackson Bills. Jack's favored by three.
You have them winning in fifty of your simulation. What really? Yeah,

(46:35):
it's weird. I'll take the checks Jags defense by four six, Okay, good,
but their defense forty four point three on third down,
so that's not good. In their losing Street, but Josh
Fallon's coming back. Dude. Bill's defense keeps them in it.
Bill's defense keeps him. Bill's defense is low key underrated.
Like Bill's defense, Bill's corners. I know, and I've been

(46:58):
pushing back against this all season long. This is a
hard game to get into because it's hard to like
sit there and track every single thing. But I think
you can even have a Charles Clay touchdown this one. Okay,
take that. What things are getting wacky? I mean it's
hard for me to push back against the Bills. D
It's been good, but then I see, like give up

(47:18):
forty one to Chicago, they give up thirty seven to Indianapolis,
gave up thirty one to the Chargers, forty seven to
the Ravens. I just twenty two. Nothing that gets shut
out by the by the Packers. Like I just I
don't know. I don't know what the heck to make
of that team. I'm telling you, I think that I
think that it's a the Bills defense keeps them, keeps
them close well, and I would say the Bills offense

(47:40):
against the Jags defense. As long as there hasn't been
a complete and total mutiny on that team, which they're
very well could be based on the personalities that are
there that expect to win, and when they don't, things
get weird. But it wouldn't surprise me. Les get weird.
It would not surprise me. And I know it's it
sounds crazy in the moment, but like it really wouldn't
if all of a sudden the Jacks just start ripping off,

(48:02):
it wouldn't. It wouldn't look at their setual at Buffalo, Indie,
at home at Tennessee. That's gonna have like some weird
like that's one of those things like that. So I
think it starts here, and I would assume that they
can they can get after that defense. They can they
can just run for net into the teeth of that
defense and and take advantage of Josh Allen or Matt
Barkley or whoever it's going to be a quarterback. That

(48:23):
defense is too good to let Josh Allen or Matt
Barkley beat up. Well, I'm pushing back, the model says
fifty two. It's not like it's Raiders at Ravens. Let's
make this one quick unless well you got the Ravens
favored by eleven Lamar Jackson. Maybe whoever's going to be
starting a quarterback, it's gonna be Lamar. I would assume
Ravens win sixty seven. The Sims the most likely scored

(48:45):
in my model. Al Right, so I'm forcing you to pick.
If the model says by Tannin it's by eleven, and
you've got the Raiders, you know, and and the points there,
what are you going to do, Cynthia, It's up to you.
Um trust. Then Harbaugh is coaching for his career, for
his job. In this case, the Raiders are thirty feet
have the thirty first ranked run defense, Ravens the third

(49:07):
best run defense. The run sets up kind of everything.
I'm gonna I'm gonna put it to you this way.
Let me let me put it into this context. Do
I think that the Ravens you've got the best You've
got the best defense in the NFL? No? I do
I think the Ravens win by more? Yeah? Good, because
I was going to say, when you have the best
defense in the NFL and you have Colton Miller and
Brandon Parker as your tackles and a Collectiosemile who appears

(49:28):
to have forgotten how to play football this season on
the interior. Uh, that's not a good combination when you
have a quarterback that is one read and out. UM.
So this, this to me is welcome back to reality.
Congratulations should beat a Cardinals team that's terrible, But welcome
back to reality. Oakland. You lose this game by three touchdowns.

(49:49):
I'm not My gut doesn't disagree with you. You know,
it's just you have to It's the Cynthia. I'm just
saying my gut. My gut says it's going to be
a bigger Ravens win. I'll take it cards at Chargers.
Chargers favored by eleven and a half, coming off a
Chargers kill me. Okay, so I have the Chargers winning again.

(50:11):
Now you gotta pick again. Eleven and a half. You
got it by eleven Chargers win in seventy eight point
four percent of the simulation. I think the Chargers win
way more convincingly than that. UM. I think that the
score is higher than a magic number of forty four
and a half. If that's the magic number, and why oh,
there's many reasons. UM. Two plus touchdowns in each games

(50:32):
for Rivers. I think that the Cardinals defense is also underrated.
I think they have a good defense. I just think
that the Chargers offense and all of those different options,
and by the way, Melvin Gordon, all those streaks he's on,
let's go roll with Gordon. I think that that's a
that's a good rivers and play action. There's so many
things you could point to here. Look, here's the one
stat that I pulled out eleven yards per attempt, which

(50:54):
is first in the NFL. Using play action in Arizona
gives up eleven point one. Seems pretty yards per attempt
with his fourth highest on defensive against plaques, I would
just say it was a really weird game last week.
It was their first time at stub Hub Center in
five weeks. I don't know how much the players like
that place. I think it bothers them that there's so
many opposing things. It bothers them that is away game.

(51:15):
But then yeah, yeah, I think it really bothers them
fake away game. I think they But you know what's
funny about that is it's helped them when they go
on the road. They're actually happy to be on the road. Um.
I think it's look selfishly for me. I love the venue.
It's awesome. It's a great place to watch a football game.
It's tiny. You can see them everywhere, and you can
hear things that you can't hear anywhere else because there's

(51:35):
not seventy thousand people worth of white noise, So you
hear conversations between players, between players and referees. It's fantastic,
it's awesome. You should definitely, But what you forget is
probably go when your team's playing against them, because you're
gonna be that Eagles game. Last year it was all Eagles. Yeah,
it was probably Eagle fans. And I think that's the
one thing that you forget is that every single NFL game,

(51:56):
no matter where you are, there's probably anywhere from seven
to ten thousand opposing fans situated in between what sixty
to seventy thousand people. When there's seven to ten thousand
fans amongst people, it's a completely different vibe. So I
think it was one of those like they came out,
they were pissed, they saw all this orange, and they

(52:19):
were sloppy and they were just in a you know,
they had it. They had a tube. Man, they were
in a bad mood and they recognized that they screwed
themselves because of it. So I think they come out
and just blow them out. I do too. I mean,
look eleven verses eleven and half exactly. I'm really good
at making making models. Spend too much time in that game.
If you want my fourth favorite analytics team, they're right here,

(52:39):
Giants and Eagles. The Birds, the Eagles, They've got a
great analytics team. I do have pick it up, which
is the same as six points, and they win in
sixty two point seven percent of the simulations. Um, I don't.
I don't I like the winner on this one. I
don't like the score, and I don't like the magic
number in terms of total scores in the whole game.
Here's what I'm gonna tell you about third down. When

(53:01):
they win, they're converting fifty one point seven percent when
they lose. So just watch Philadelphia's third down. That will
be the indicator for the game how it goes. New
York Giants defense on third down that's not good and
thirty first in sac rate. So if there's a way
to get right, and there's a way to still win

(53:22):
this division because the NFC East is wide open, well
for not everyone but Carson Wentz got to pick it up. Yeah,
you gotta pick it up. Got to pick it up.
That's a game you gotta get right. And do you
know what else you gotta do. You gotta stop the
rush Eagles rush defense because they've been down so many corners.
They've been playing weird defenses that are more that are
not what they do best. They got to get back
to their bread and butter and almost I was talking

(53:43):
to a few people about like just surrendering this like
deep ball every now and again, because you gotta stay up,
like when you got sa Kwan Barkley and you've got
Odell Beckham to account for the well, don't surrender both
of them by kind of playing this like HYBRIDI Nickeli
mishm and they got nothing. They've gotten high up their
entire gos. But but then they're because they're playing off,

(54:09):
they're playing these weird fronts that aren't like what they
do best. Then they're missing a bunch of tackles. In fact,
I think Profoball Focus has them at the third highest
miss tackle rate. So there it's because when you look
at the space, if the defense are trying to account
for their defensive backs not being there, so they're having
to do weird things like like it's kind of the
reverse of like what you've seen with the Chargers. So

(54:30):
so ultimately in this one, for me, it's a get
right situation. I think it's Eagles. They're gonna favorite pressure,
get to Eli Manning and then punching my hand because
I want them to win because I have it predicted
here and I don't like being wrong. That's uh, do
we get that number right? Because you still had to
make sure you've got and the same as six the Eagles,

(54:51):
So it's a push, uh confidence picks. You already gave
us the Well first, I gotta give you five. We
got in trouble because people I usually give you I
didn't see Fantasy future quick five touchdowns and you're gonna
tell me if this is if it's sneaky enough? Okay,
is Marlon mac snicky? Okay? Nick Vanette, Yes, okay, that's
a tight end from because everybody needs a tight end.
So one for two, alright, Charles Clay, we already told

(55:13):
you that, Yes, that's your good percentage. Yep, yep. Um,
Matt breed to that. One's note that one's not at all.
Now you're five again. One more, um, Robbie Anderson, I'm
gonna go, Yes, that's the guy I would target if
I was gonna take any pass catcher against six hundred.
We'll take it all, right, one Smith, I'm just I'm

(55:36):
just kidding those Yeah, those are all great. And nick joke,
who's going to be started? Chub's gonna be started? Track
once with? Maybe not? So there we go go back
to the alright, one hit the Q. I don't know
that I'm not good Quan that was that was helped
me out, Jerry McGuire, alright, confidence picks, yes, exactly, alright,
confidence picks uh good. I just lost my voice for

(55:57):
a second here. I think that there's going to be
a lot of we already told you that. I think
New England convincingly wins, but I think there's gonna be
more points than you might imagine in this right. I
think that there's gonna be fewer points in San Francisco
versus Tampa Bay. San Francisco comes out on top in
that one. Um, And I think let's go with you
don't sound confident, well your confidence in my confidence picks here? Ah?

(56:22):
I like the you know what, I like the Indianapolis
to win very convincing. Okay, Indie Big viewpoints in Bucks, Niners,
lots of points in Pat's Jets. You got it all right,
Let's go to the playoffs. It has changed. We start
with the NFC and I'll get the obvious ones out
of the way, Rams Saints one and two at nine.

(56:45):
Then we get into Bears North. What you have, Okay,
Bears their number three, it's pretty good number sixty. Now
we got Cowboys fi right, so it's like cow Ways
are right in it with the here's the difference though,
you have the Eagles at thirty nine. So that's a
pretty good gap between those two. I mean that I

(57:07):
would say at this point, Eagles beat Washington. This if
the Eagles, if the Eagles beat the Giants this week,
they and then they get Washington, then Dallas. So Dallas
has Washington this week, and then they have the Saints.
So circle week fourteen, because that'll be the winner of
your enderscy East because they're going head so we can
we can kick that can down the road. The interesting

(57:29):
one again that people get really upset with. You still
have the Packers in. I think that look them in.
If they don't win this game, then they'll get kicked
out because this game five and one this game, this
game this week against the Vikings will with that one
game this isn't this will kick them out because right

(57:50):
now I have the Panthers in that six spot and
I have so it's it's goes two teams from the
NFC North and the second ones in the five spot
and then the sixth and then the right Now the
Panthers ahead of the Monk there, so it's the South,
so something NFC North and NFC South are the two
that are in, but you got a little bit of
a log jam there between. Then it goes Eagles, Redskins

(58:10):
and then Seahawks of this and Seahawks have already jumped
up a lot. They were down at like the eight
percent mark, and now to have them at thirty eight percent.
They defeat the Panthers and those two will likely switch
and I would imagine that'll put them in the wild card.
And if Atlanta does indeed lose this week, that's kind
of the end of Atlanta. Okay, let's go to the
a f C UH ninety only percent to the Chiefs

(58:30):
with their second loss. UH for the Patriots. Go read
that article. You'll see the reasons why. The page and
interesting to watch is really interesting. The Steelers you look
to have winning the a f C North handily at
sixty percent, the Texans handily in the a f C South.
At Chargers take a single loss and drops them considerably.

(58:54):
They were in the nineties last week, all the way
down to fifty percent. They were in the nineties last week,
I think they were. They were seven two. No, because
it's the second The problem is is that there it's
the wild card. They were like I think they were
in like the sixties somethings, sixty somethings. So they didn't
drop a ton. They dropped like they're they're good, and
they got a two game advantage in the wild card

(59:14):
over every other team. That's right. So, but it's it's
the other stuff, right like the it's the ones below
them that gets more interesting Cults than Ravens and their
point one percent different. So Colts forty nine point three,
Ravens point two, Bengals kind of trending down. And by
the way, how about the Dolphins, also a five and
five team, but just a ten percent chance of making

(59:35):
the playoffs. That's the confidence that your model has at
him less like, but I'm just saying there are five
and five. I feel bad because people think I don't
like their It's doesn't matter. It doesn't matter. It's history.
It's fifteen years of historical data. It's not me. That's
Gut at ten percent versus at five and five, Jags

(59:56):
at nine, at three and seven. You got it speaks
to the issues that the Dolphins have. When you don't
have a reliable quarterback, things are really tough. You can't
say it shoppy. You can't just just crack your mic.
What are you saying? Talk shoppy talk? Instagram playoff predictions
are on oh yeah, my playoffer, and so are the
weekly scores on Instagram, and everything is updated and if

(01:00:18):
you want something fun, go produce the comments of that.
People tell me to get back in the kitchen and
then they tell me too that I hate their team,
and they have choice words for me. It's really great.
They call for my job. They want me to get
fired a lot, which I think means I'm doing well.
And by the way, about it, like see Freeland on Twitter,
Cynthia felt very confusing. So there you go. All right,

(01:00:39):
Well that's it. It was early. Uh, we're still waking
up and we hope you appreciate that. Thanksgiving. Yes, Happy
Thanksgiving everybody time this week. Stop spreading the story that
trip to finish the reason why you're falling asleep. It's
not because you consume a giant amount of food. It's
a day because your family's boring. Family's boring. You're sitting
on a couch. Has nothing to do with trip to

(01:01:01):
been all right, So stop pedaling that freaking rumor or
daylight savings, time savings, don't say safe. Dare do that, Cynthia.
We'll be back again next week. Thank you for downloading sharing.
If you can leave a review, that'd be great. All
that stuff. Enjoy your Thanksgiving, everybody,