Game Theory and Money: Week 14 Predictions and Playoff Projections

Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
Welcome to Game Theory and Money Week fourteen. Just four
of these left in the regular season before we get
to the playoffs. And I like to always trick the folks.
I think they can just skip ahead and not take
partner grabbing of the ass. So quick, pick right out
the gate, Cynthia, what do you got? Very quickly? Q
q P. I think that there's going to be a

(00:21):
lot of points scored in right for it. You're ready, Houston,
you're vamping. I'm onto you. I just think I was
going to give you I'm ready. I just wanted to
make sure listen. Ever since we were it was pointed
out that they want the highest percentage of something, so
I just wanted to going through this is the highest
percentage because there's a lot of little decimal points and

(00:42):
percentage things on my sheet that's in front of me.
So I just wanted to make sure there's one that's
sixty eight point five and there's one that's sixty nine
point three. So I wanted to make sure I gave
the right one stree again, so I stepped all over it.
It's Houston in Indianapolis, latzo points, Okay, I just want
to make sure I got us right, a team that
scored exactly zero points last week, it's going to participate

(01:06):
in the contest in which a lot of points are
going to be scored, well more than you might think.
I'm just saying stuff on Grandpa's eggnog or something my
holiday season. Who doesn't love egg knock? Actually eggnocks kind
of gross, It's disgusting. Anybody under the age of sixty
doesn't love eggnog. That's all right, So lots of points.
There's your quick pick. Indy Houston, if you're new to

(01:28):
the show, thank you for trying us out ten thousand
simulations on every single game. That's what Cynthia's model does.
She is bright, intelligent, and a math whiz. Predictive analytics
is the dance floor in which she struts her moves,
and with that we give you a better idea of
how these games should look. How was she on the
season six and two straight up last week? Not bad,

(01:53):
not great, seven eight and one against the number, So
let's see if we can get that up. The good news,
as your confidence pick are going pretty darn well two
of three on your confidence picks for the week. After
struggling with those uh, Aaron Rodgers really let me down. Well,
Aaron Rodgers let a lot of folks down. And I
will say I was watching that game with Daniel Jeremiah,
our friend from Move the Sticks, and he has been
outspoken about his lack of belief in the Packers for

(02:16):
about six eight weeks now, and he says, for whatever reason,
the rest of the media has decided to try to
paint this picture that the Packers are good and they're not.
And he's right. I think that last game illustrated. Their
defense isn't great, their offense isn't great. Aaron Rodgers has
not been great this year. And when you mix those
three things. Oh, by the way, the special teams has
been terrible. So mix all those things together and you

(02:37):
get a loss at home against the card Past that
nobody saw coming. So that was your one confidence picks
up on the season. You are twenty three and eighteen
on your confidence picks. But as of late you have
been streaming because we were listen again. I took the feedback. Well,
we went with the highest percentage things now, so we're
going to get that confidence number up. Speaking of the umber, Cynthia,

(03:00):
let's get to it. You want to get to it
freelance favorites. As the name suggests, these are the favorites
that Cynthia likes this week. Likes the number. Likes the
team the Chiefs and the Ravens at Arrowhead no Kareem
Hunt for the second game the season. The Ravens are streaking,
they have won three in a row, and the Chiefs
are favored by six and a half. The Chiefs are

(03:23):
favored by six and a half. I have them winning
in sixty six point three percent of the simulations. The
most likely score is Chiefs thirty one twenty three. So
thirty one is eight points different, which is a higher
scoring and more lopsided score. Then you might imagine, do
you want to know why? Because I know you against

(03:44):
the Chiefs and you can see my face. I'm processing
right now. I guess. I guess that twenty three points
is a lot of points for this Baltimore Ravens offense.
I think because they do like to grind it out,
run the ball, limit the possibility for turnovers from Lamar Jackson.
But man, against this Chiefs the I'm just I'm coming

(04:05):
off an Oakland team that scored thirty three. You know,
obviously the r of their third downs last week? What
which is a little lot of character for them? A
and B. The Chiefs defense isn't terrible on third down.
It's like one of the only categories were not terrible,
that they were terrible last week. Yes, exactly, that happens,

(04:26):
you know, I mean it happens. And by the way,
when great offense and great defense tangle, defenses travel, pack
up the Ravens put him in the plane. Defenses travel.
You know, I hate defensive travel. So I think I'm
gonna push back. I think I'll take the Ravens. Go ahead.
Let's get to your keys, because they're a lot more
important than just my football and gut. Look, well, first

(04:46):
of all, a divisional game last week. Divisional games are
win weird things typically happened them. Oh so that not
that I'm saying it's okay that what happened with the Raiders.
In terms of projecting the future of the defense for
the Chiefs, But I do you think in this game
this week against the Ravens, who have a great defense
number five and limiting big plays number one on yards

(05:07):
per play meaning the fewest yards per play, I still
think the Chiefs big plays. So twenty plus receptions, ten
plus rushes. That's the difference maker because they have them
in three phases of the game. I understand they're missing
Kareem Hunt, and he was according to Pro Football Focus,
he has the highest rate in the league of forcing
miss tackles. But I will say that Spencer where now

(05:29):
he's got a chance to acclimate. They've got your Hendrick
West in there. The turmoil that happened on Friday of
last week is now ten days ago, and in football,
ten days is a long time. So ultimately, for me,
this one is a sort of a get right sort
of now we're gonna see what's going on. Chief's old
line has been playing really well. Travis Kells is gonna

(05:49):
be a huge factor in this game. I just think
that their ability on that offense to have great, high
offensive output is greater than the Ravens offensive output. And
I understand that Lamar Jackson, and I understand Joe Flack
actually was practicing, so I'm I'm I don't know if
he's going to be active or not, but I have
Lamar Jackson factored in this one. They rush all the

(06:10):
time with him. I understand that's I understand that's a
weakness of the Chiefs defense. But I still think in
this one it is a Chief's get right game at home.
I just disagree because I just I buy into the defense.
I don't. I'm not saying the Ravens are gonna win
this game, but it won't surprise me if they do. Uh, Spencer,
where he's a jack, you know, I mean, Kareem Hunt
was special for a second, like he's a jaguar. I'm like, what,

(06:34):
like if you get treated heaven just a guy he's
and look, you can win games with with with guys
at running back, you can, you know. And it's and
we see it repeatedly. Look, it's why the Chiefs decided,
you know, not to draft in Ezekiel Ellievitt Elliott in
the top five, but instead take Kareem Hunt in the
third round. And he ends up winning the Rookie of
the Year or something like that. He wanted the Russian
title whatever. But you know what I'm saying. He was

(06:55):
a special back and fit perfectly into that offense and
helped keep defenses off balance because the second start playing
for the big play in the Cheetah running down the
field and Travis Kelsey running up the scene Kareem Hunt
gashes shop for six seven yards of carry and I
just don't see Spencer We're doing that. And again you
want the fancy stats whatever, they're just stats. But for
twenty five seasons, you got a top three offense versus

(07:16):
a top three defense. After Week fourteen, guess which one wins?
The defense? One and seven is the offense against the defense.
So this is a really really good defense that's coming
with Pat Mahomes hasn't really faced one of those yet.
It is a really really good defense. However, Pat Mahomes
and this offense is a really really good offense. And
it wasn't just Kareem Hunt that made them really really good.

(07:38):
The first few games of the season, you didn't see
that extra output from Hunt. It was kind of he
had a sleepy start. You saw it against the Chargers
Week one, sleepy or start. I think the scheme, familiarity
with Spencer Ware is what gets them past this sort
of gigantic change in their roster. Yeah, I mean, if
you want to go, you know, what are the great
defenses they faced this year? Um one, Even though Joey

(08:00):
Bosa wasn't there the Chargers, they scored thirty eight against
the Chargers. Seven of those were a punt returned by
by Tyreek Kill. Seven of those were basically a fumbled
punt on the three yard line by an undrafted rookie
that was cashed in for a touchdown, and then you
got the Broncos who held them to I will say
that the Chiefs defense isn't gonna look as poor as
it did last week against the Raiders at all. You've

(08:22):
seen the Chiefs defense come on DeFord. His ability to
generate pressure is something that is not to be overlooked.
There are good spots to this defense. It's not like
I'm not saying it's the best defense in the league
by any stretch, but it's not. You know, you're not
looking at a Raven's offense that has dynamic pass catchers
on every level. You're not looking at great tight end
that's going to crush you in the middle of the field.
You're not looking at a very consistent run game. It's

(08:45):
it is getting more consistent, but you haven't seen the
consistency yet. Just to wrap it up for for my position,
since I disagree on these things, I'll push back with,
you know, the only reason that the only category they're
good in is sacks because they end up jumping teams
and they forced them into obvious passing downs, so they
can play obvious passing downs. But every other metric they're

(09:08):
pretty bad, um And and really I shouldn't say pretty,
they're really bad. So that's where I think a really good,
d conservative offense that's not going to give it up,
that has that X factor of Lamar Jackson running around
and eluding them, can keep this thing tight. I genuinely
believe that. I just don't think the Chiefs have faced
anything like this. I'm waiting for it to happen because

(09:29):
I gotta believe it's gonna happen. Um. And I think
between this game the following Thursday night against the Chargers
deed that's really settled in, and then having to go
to Seattle, I'm anxious to see this three game stretch
for the Chiefs. And if they can navigate all that,
then yes, guess what offense rules It did in the
Super Bowl between the Eagles and the Patriots, and it
continues through typ just I guess. I just believe that

(09:50):
the ability for Patrick Mahomes to stun you. He doesn't
get rattled by pressure. He doesn't. I mean he obviously
they have been turnovers. We saw that in the Rams game,
but he doesn't ring game. We didn't. We didn't get
rattled in the sense of like he doesn't start throwing
like horrible checkdowns to crazy people. Right. He he can
get crushed, but it's not. It's he still seems he's looking,
he's checking all of his reads. I rewatched a film

(10:12):
with someone who knows this firsthand, and he's like he's
still making all his reads even after being just crushed
and you know, allowing that defense to score a touchdown.
I think we gotta see. To me, it's like this
is still a special offense. It's yes, we're missing cree
hunt and we saw some some crap last week. It's
a technical term, but ultimately that math hashtag math, hashtag

(10:33):
crap probably the more I would say, just on on
its face, the most intriguing game of the week. So, yeah,
you spent ten minutes on it or wherever it was. Uh,
we will move on and likely move a lot faster,
even though just again, it's playoff time, so we're probably
gonna take a minute or two on a lot of
the games that have serious playoff implications this one. I
guess you could sell the idea that it's got serious

(10:54):
playoff implications because the Saints lost home field advantage. We
know how special they are on that dome last week
when they dropped one to do us on Thursday night.
This time they travel to Tampa. Uh, what do you have?
The Saints are favored by eight? Do you like them
by eight or more? I do? I like the Saints.
So I have the Saints winning in seventy three point
three percent of the simulations. By the way, Uh, of

(11:14):
the things that I've picked over seventy on this season,
so the confidence has been over. Do you know what
my record is on that? Just I'm gonna go with
exactly it's about so it's it's pretty that the Saints
win this game the most likely well I didn't say that,
but I just said by the Saints win. The Saints

(11:36):
to win the game percentage on the Saints win by
more than eight, it's a sixty six point five percent.
So I have the most likely score as thirty one.
But remember if we only need to know eight, right,
so more than eight and sixty six point five percent
of the simulations, and I don't have it being a
super high scoring game. I mean, you can look at

(11:57):
it like that and be like, well, that's fifty two points,
but ultimately, if you were to use a magic number
of oh say fifty six, it goes below that in
sixty eight point six percent of the simulations, and that
is the key number in this stage scoring. But you
have Saints by Ken and the difference it's really all
about turnovers. So the Saints ability to scheme to avoid pressure.

(12:18):
We did see the Bucks get great pressure on Cam
Newton last week, forcing those four turnovers, but the Drew
Brees and the Saints look three interceptions that second fewest
in the league. Ten total turnovers, that's second fewest in
the league for this offense. Yes, we saw Drew Brees
get picked off last week against the Cowboys. But the

(12:39):
low turnover rate in their way that they're getting to this,
you know, the way that they're generating that just overwhelmingly
is more greater arrow, greater arrow than what the Bucks
have going on. The Bucks have been really inconsistent and
they have the most turnovers in the NFL thirty turnovers.
So the turnovers the biggest thing here, and they've won
games when they don't look, last week they ran into
a bush song. Last week, it was Thursday night, it

(13:01):
was on the road, it was nationally televised, it was
crazy hype. They faced the number two scoring defense in
the league and the number five overall defense in the league.
This week they are not going into the Jerry Dome
on prime you know, in prime time on Thursday night,
and they're taking on the number scoring defense and the
number overall defense in the league. So I'm willing to

(13:22):
crumple up that Thursday night or throw it out, call
it an outlier, and watch the Saints get back to
doing what they do. Actually, you know, I've been trying
to look and see, like when is the most ideal
time to lose a game? And I definitely think, like
with enough weeks to kind of get right, I'm gonna
I'm getting back to you on this, but it kind
of spurts and things like Okay, so we know, like
you know, winning the whole season is very improbable. So

(13:43):
if you're gonna lose, like when's it good to lose?
And like how you know what I mean, Like what's
the good way to lose so that you actually like
have the best chance of rebounding so I don't think
there's trying to to quantify. You know who likes variables? Me? Yeah,
I guess that's true. Who doesn't you? Sean Shoppy are
producer there. Here's here's a variable. Week thirteen the Saints

(14:06):
offense ten points, a hundred and seventy six yards and
a hundred eleven pass yards. Uh. The other twelve weeks
that they played football, how about nearly forty points, over
four hundred yards and almost three hundred little different that
you picked the one that you want to lean on.
And I am with you, as I said, But they
lost the one they lost. They did, but that was
a weird game. Remember that was the Fitzpatrick game and

(14:28):
he was playing out of his head anyway, That's right,
that's right. J Jackson was playing d Jack. The Giants
believe after beating the Bears that they still have a chance.
Giants at Red Skins. They are four and a last four.
I'm saying there's a chance the Giants are favored by

(14:49):
three and a half. They are taking on either Josh
Johnson or Mark Sanchez at quarterback. You like the Giants
by so Giants win, which on this simulations, the most
likely score seventeen in that one, so they are more
than three and a half point winners in fifty nine

(15:09):
point four percent of the simulations. Stay away from trying
to add up any sort of you know, scores and
trying to figure out that this sort of the magic
number on this one. I'm staying away from that. Why,
I mean, you named it all right? So the quarterback
is right or Josh Johnston, I understand that the that
the red scenes are six and six, and I understand

(15:30):
that when I look at that number, people get furious
when they put out my playoff Projectionally their red scenes
are six and sticks. That's not that bad there, you know,
there's we have still have a chance. Nope, you don't.
I'm sorry. Too many injuries, your old lines decimated. You're
playing with the quarterback who was probably playing Fortnite last week, right,
he's on your roster now, right? Not? Yeah, I think

(15:51):
he was playing, like maybe maybe he's a mad guy.
Maybe Fortnite. I don't know, that's my guess. And then
your whole your your wide receivers, Paul Richards, like you're
you're really kind of it's it's not a great Mark
Sanchez who has more interceptions than he has games started.
What you're said about him that you love bringing up
on a bringing up any negative steps. You know my

(16:12):
status about Mark Sanchez. Guess what, be a nice guy.
If you're a nice guy, you find yourself employed. That's
that's the key, because he is known as one of
the better backups when it comes to preparing starters. Uh,
he's known as a good guy in the quarterback room.
And ral you look at his statistics, what's what's interception
one point two interceptions per game? So what you're saying

(16:32):
is to stream the Giant It's exactly stream the Giants
defense if you can pick it up in your leagues,
and you will likely prosper, especially since they put it
on Chase Daniel last week for seventeen fantasy places the
second most. They're bringing a lot of pressure. The effective
pressure rate went up way high last week. It was impressive.

(16:52):
And even though the Redskins have a very good offensive line,
even though it's decimated, yet Mark Sanchez back there, who
likes go for it. It is unfortunate. Let's go Lions
at Cardinals. Uh, no playoff implications on this one, but hey,
if you're interested, the Lions are favored by two and
a half. It is in the desert, and you like
the Lions hunt. Lions win twenty four one. Lions win

(17:16):
in only fifty eight point three percent of the simulations.
They win by more than two and a half points
in fifty seven point two percent of the simulations. Blah blah.
Ultimately to me, the defense and this one makes the
big difference. If you remember Christian Kirk, he has been
put on I R. And make sure you have a
contingency plan if carry on Johnson who probably won't play
from everything I've seen, so if you're planning on using

(17:37):
him in fantasy, you need to figure out a contingency plan.
Those are my biggest notes in this game. Lions defense
makes a difference. But that's it. The one, the one um,
the one wild card in this I think is just
how good Chandler Jones is it rushing the pass and
how bad Matt Stafford has been with the football this season. Oh,
I definitely think listen, I definitely think the Lions conclus

(17:58):
the game. Like again, this is the mean fan or
the I'm actually a pretty normal Lions fan. They could
definitely lose this game. I mean, they've lost five or six,
so certainly wouldn't surprise anybody if they travel across the
country take on a guy who I believe Chandler Jones
has led the sacks. If you go back to the
start of and I think he is still your NFL
leader ahead von Miller. Uh. If you go back to
the start of last season, include this season, Jones is

(18:21):
still the guy. And you know, I watched him for
you know, while the game was competitive against the Chargers
for the first quarter and a half, He's great. He's dominant.
You've got to help him. I mean, you have to
double team him, you have to chip him with a
tight end, you got to help out with a back.
He is an absolute beast. These are still NFL teams.
There's there's really good players on it. I just think
it's funny, like, well, the game was competitive for a quarter.
Oh yeah, they quit. I don't I don't like saying

(18:42):
that about teams, but yeah, they quit when the middle
of the third quarter. Save Robert kim Dici, who had
an outlier game for him. And by the way, I'd
like to point out kim Dici if you're interested save
Actually no, I think and I'm sure he wouldn't be
happy if you heard me say it. I would say
save Willie mc ginnis. But I think even more so
than Willie mcguinnis much like if you meet Um rugby

(19:04):
players or Australian rules football players, their body mass is
just so dense. If you just shake their hands or
you feel the way they're constructed, candies, that guy, he
is the most dense constructed human being I have ever
been around at the combine and it's it's it was
obvious why the Cardinals selected him in the first round.
With that athleticism and that power and density in his body,

(19:27):
I can only imagine what it feels heck. I mean
his leg whip was like a telephone pole when it
hit Melvin Gordon and just launched him at them. It
was just a freak injury. He was trying to tackle
Austin or Actiller. He bit on the fake and as
he was going to the ground his leg just went
horizontal in the Gordon tripe. Anyway, Uh, I think I
take the Cardinals. I think, even though I watched they

(19:48):
answer really rough, math says Lions, But I'm with you.
I mean, my gut is like no, it's pute Cardinal's win. Yeah, alright,
let's go uh now, okay, from that to legitimate conversation,
we can have a huge playoff implication in one of
the toughest places to play, the Monday Night or Vikings
at Seahawks. Man, the Vikings have been on a freaking

(20:11):
gauntlet of games. I mean they had Sunday night football
at Chicago. What was the game against Green Bay? Was
that Sunday that football as well? Or what was I
don't know if it was Sunday primetime. It was a
primetime game because remember the I saw this a lie
stat that was awesome because it was like, uh, Kirk
Cousins is a chance to be the first quarterback to
go back to back weeks and beat Aaron Rodgers. And

(20:32):
then it was like something like Aaron Rodgers and Brady
and then Brady like in aroonam like, well, how many
times that ever happened? It's like five, Like, Okay, well
that's a that's just a tough stretch. Bears, Packers, Patriots,
Seahawks and they finally kind of get through this. So
what do we have here? We go the number of
Seahawks are favored by three at home, so basically I

(20:53):
think it's low, That's what I say. So I have
the Seahawks winning in fifty seven and a half percent
of the simulations most likely score see how Seahawks win
by more than a field goals fifty four point eight
percent of the simulations. That that was low for me,
like gut wise, but I did look you know, I
obviously looked into it. And ultimately, and by the way,

(21:13):
you're totally right about the playoff implications. For me, this
most likely determines who's the five and who's the sixth
seed in the in the NFC. So that's so you
have both of these teams making in the playoffs. Preview there,
huh little preview. We call that a tease in the business.
You know, you've heard of that. I can teach you
something absolutely, you know what a tease is. In radio,

(21:34):
I always blow them though before we go to commercial,
just that ruin them. Share what the information is. You're
supposed to hook it through the break, my man boss
says to me, Um, all right, so let's get into
some of the details. Why do you have the Seahawks
favored by three winning by more than three? What's the
best way to stop a good pass? Rush Fikings defensive
a great pass rush. What's the best way to stop it?
Run the ball, yep, run right at it. And no

(21:55):
one has run more than the Seahawks the average eight
point eight yards per game. The Minnesota OH line is
the other point that's the problem. So it's kind of
like an OH line. It's like a trench is game
for me, and Minnesota's O line is a minus for them.
You saw what happened with Khalil Mack when you started
to see some great pressure against them. And also, you know,
I was mad that they didn't use the huddle. I've

(22:16):
brought this up now. They couldn't use the no huddle,
and I don't think they're gonna be able to hear
in Seattle. That's not a great place to try to
run at huddle offense. Yeah, so it's going to be
difficult to communicate. So if someone doesn't understand what they're doing,
or if they're not on the same page, or it's
late in the game, or the change of script somehow.
To me, those are the two things that project for
higher potential turnovers from Minnesota. Higher potential from Minnesota to

(22:40):
not have a good yards per play average and really
it's it's all about the Seahawks in this one offense.
I mean when you look at when you look at
their losses, right too, tight losses to a division opponent,
the Rams, really tight losses. I mean right down to
the final series. Essentially they lost to the Chargers when
the Chargers started to really hit their straw id um,

(23:00):
and they still had a hell of a rally to
darn near get back into that one. Um. They lost
to the number one defense in the league in the
Chicago Bears, and then they lost in Week one, which
week one is always like whatever. Uh, you know that
the Saints lost to the Buccaneers in Week one. It's
pretty good team. Um. And I think, you know, the
seven and five records a little bit deceiving, And when
you actually look at those five losses, it's like, oh hey,

(23:21):
it's uh, those don't look as bad as as you
would think. So I'm I'm with you. I think the
Seahawks team is good. I think they beat the Vikings
and they had a chance to win out and and
end up the season at eleven and five because they're
bringing Kansas City there. Uh, and you know, December probably
gonna be rainy, sleety um not yeah, muck up the game.

(23:44):
Um where it's a little bit harder to run around
and air it out, you know, fifty times or whatever
they would prefer to, could be a bigger problem, right,
So I'm with you. I think I think the Seahawks
are kind of at that beginning of not only a
run to to get in the playoffs, but the run
to be the proverbial that's the team nobody wants to
face on the division round because obviously they're not gonna

(24:05):
win the division with the Rams haven't already clinched it um,
and they're gonna be a wild card team that's probably
gonna scare the snot out of one of those bottom
two seeds. And also the division you know, the two
buy teams, the Saints and the Rams. I know, gosh,
can you imagine if you're the Rams you end up
with the number one seed and you've got to try
to beat a Seahawks team that lost you by two
in one game five and another for a third time.

(24:27):
That is just a brutal, freaking draw in the in
the postseason. One thing to monitor in this game, though,
is a sneaky passing stat on Seattle that I found
they've been averaging allowing passing yards per game in the
past four games, and that's number two over this time period,
which has like gone up significantly. Obviously, they've been in
closer games, people have had to stay throwing, to kick

(24:48):
competitive all these things, but point eight points allowed as
well is something just something to watch here. Their past defense,
especially when you start seeing these really past happy, really
good often like obviously in Minnesota, it's gonna be will
they be able to get those wide receivers going. We've
seen Adam feeling kind of be you know, limited quite

(25:10):
a bit. You know, Stefon Diggs has been in and
out of the game from injury. So that's going to
be something to monitor in this one going forward to
see just how high the ceiling on the Seahawks is
going to be. So what's interesting to me to just
real quick to wrap this up, is that it you know,
this windstreak has not come because of Russell Wilson finally
coming around to rush. You know, we we mentioned this before,

(25:30):
I know on the pod, where he is on pace
to rush for not just the fewest number of times
in his career in any season, but by like half
is lowest before was ninety four. He is currently through
thirteen games or through twelve games at forty five. So
even though they're winning, you know, last week, four rushes,
week before three rushes, week before that, five rushes. So

(25:52):
it's not like he's changed anything. It's just that that
everything's kind of starting to click for this team, and
using their running backs to is been one of the
ways that they've been kind of overcoming a not so
great old line. So that masks it right, creative use
of their running back to run right out, like that's
one of the things. Let's not kill Russell Wilson. Let's
use our running backs in ways that make sure that

(26:14):
this old line, which was it's not that different from
years past. It's just that they've massed it well through strategy.
It's a really smart strategy. It's it's still it's still
a pretty terrible pass block it's not, but it's a
decent run blocking line. I mean, Dwanne Brown is not bad.
It left tackle with the right side and they just
lost Flucker that right side a fetty. I mean, it's
just been it's been bad um and even Justin Britt

(26:36):
hasn't been great at the center. Position. Anyway, Um, there
we go, all right, So we move on to the
sorry Jacks Titans. Titans still alive at six and six,
and the Jack's coming off shutting out one of the
hottest teams in football, the Indianapolis Colts. The number Titans
are favored by Ford is in Nashville. You have what
I have, the Titans winning in sixty three point three

(26:58):
percent of the simulations. The most lie they scores Titans
twenty three, Jags eighteen. So if the magic number four
you talked about, they're more than they went by more
than four and of the simulations. And I think that's
kind of a higher scoring game, even though it's not
a high scoring game. It's a higher scoring game then
you might imagine out of these two teams. And by
the way, when you brought up the playoff stuff, it's

(27:19):
really kind of it's really interesting, especially with the unfortunate
loss of Emmanuel Sanders today to Achilles. He's on I
r um. That can actually change. So we run the
playoffs simulations. This is a tease for what's coming up
ahead to but we run this playoff simulations, like what
happens if this team wins or if this team loses
or whatever, and the Titans are so alive. Their times

(27:40):
are still absolutely alive. So this is an important game.
I'm just going to point out that a team won
a game last week in which they had a total
of two hundred and twenty nine yards of offense uh
zero touchdowns two nine in two. A team won a

(28:02):
game with a single field goal in the first half
and the second half. It is something that we are
not used to see, and let alone one against and
Andrew luck led squad and a quarterback who had thrown
three touchdown passes in eight of his eleven games. We're
gonna throw that one, So we're gonna throw that kind
of out. You know. I think that was an anomaly
for for the Colts offense because, by the way, you're

(28:24):
the Colts defense only allowing six points to field goals.
That's not a bad defensive outing by any stretch. But
it was Cody Kessler. It was no Leonard four Net,
it was I mean that Jack's offense is bad. That's
why I don't give him any chance in this one.
I know the Titans looked terrible against the Jets, and
they needed to have some frantic rally in the fourth
quarter Marcus Mariotta just like it was just a typical.

(28:47):
It looked like he was at Oregon that run, you know,
just eluding defenders, choking them four five different times to
get down the field and put them in that position
to win. By no means. Have they inspired a lot
of confidence and their potential of make you a run
back into the wild card, uh spot. But the Jacks,
I just I can't do it with Cody Kessler, and
I know Leonard Fournette's coming back, but man, that offense

(29:09):
look terrible last week. Yeah. So an interesting sat here
is that the Titans run the third most often on
first down, but the average a fewest yards per rush.
Bill figure this one out for me. So important. It's
an interesting It's an interesting note because they're gonna have
to change your play call a bit because it's kind
of like the they're taking a plant of the Jack's
book a little bit, right. So, so ultimately it's gonna

(29:30):
be it's gonna be interesting to me to see if
they can kind of get that going because now that
you have both Ramsey and A J. Boyer both playing,
Ramsey's actually going to be back to his spot, to
his side, they're not gonna ask me to move around
or do any of the things that they were doing
earlier this season when Boy was out. We've seen huge
increase there. And then Mariotta throws not to Ramsey, so
he has twelve targets and snaps. That's profitble focus that

(29:52):
got that one to us. But ultimately, right, it's like
it's such a small he throws away from him, so
it's gonna be like, all right, boy, let's see who
lines up against Boy in the passing game. So that's
that's kind of gonna be an interesting That's gonna be
an interesting one there too, because Titans not known for
their big play offense. All right, let's go to the
most lopsided number of the week. The Chargers favored by
two touchdowns against a decimated Cincinnati squad that has lost

(30:17):
so much over the course of the season. After a
heck of a four and one start, just bodies started
following it was real. Just attrition got them, and they've
won a single game, uh since that four and one start.
They are one and six since and just have been
getting hammered by teams. To the Broncos, the Cleveland Browns

(30:38):
went in there and humiliated them, and now they have
to travel to one of the most well rounded teams offense, defense,
and special teams in the league. So what do you
have the Chargers winning an eighty two point to pretend
the simulations, I have a score being thirty three seventeen.
You said two touchdowns that actually happens in fifty point
five pretend of simulations, and only the only reason for

(30:58):
that is I just think they're gonna it's just to
be a slower pace game than we've seen. Thirty three
points is still a lot, but fourteen points is also
a lot, So ultimately, for me, it could be even
more lopsided. I'm far more certain of the fact that
the Chargers win than that gigantic number. I would just
say the way it matches up. The reason why I
do think they'll they'll they'll win by more than that

(31:22):
big place because are number two in big plays the
Chiefs Chiefs. The Chiefs number one, but the Charges is
number two in big plays. The Bengals, I believe are
second or third give up I don't remember. I was
just putting my board together. I think they give up
the second or third most big play. So I expect
like at least two of those. Austin Ekeler in the

(31:44):
flat goes for forty yards and a touchdown. Tyrrelle Williams,
you know, after taking a knee and you get a
first and ten from the twenty five seventy five yard
touched on. I could see a couple of those coming
that just get this thing. I'm not I'm not wrong,
I don't. I mean, that's just that's that's why I
think it's such a big number fourteen in an NFL game,
even with backups. I can just see this one looking

(32:06):
a lot like that Arizona game did, just because they
have so many weapons and they can pour it on
in such a hurry um and the way the defense
has been playing force three and ounce with Bosa and
Ingram together. Now, I just my You know, obviously, I
know that Hugh Jackson is your favorite coach in the league,
and I just know that, like, Hugh is going to
have a game against you, right, He's just gonna make
it because he knows you're gonna be calling the game,
he knows you're gonna be there. So Hugh has so

(32:28):
many defensive like just absolutely like crazy things planned for you.
So that's really why the fort here we go. Now,
I got it. I'm gonna pull up the Bengals defense.
That's what a huge specialty is this season? Alright, defense overall,
last scoring, last against the run, last third down, last
against the past, thirty one way to go, big plays,
nine yards per play ninth. Yeah, and you're doing it

(32:53):
without a j Green uh and with a backup quarterback
in Jeff. But you know what I do, like we
in my look at our Google doc? Right, biggest reason
when the team wins as a joke? Did you see
what I wrote to you? Yeah? Northwestern? You and you're wacky.
Justin Jackson played great last week. He was great in
the preseason and coached up. Think about the backs the

(33:14):
Big Ten. There's another one for you. How about just
take all those Wisconsin backs Ron, Dane Melvin, I just
and I'm talking about in their college careers, right, So
think about careers of Biakatuka, you know, Anthony Thomas, I
mean all those great right. Archie Manning, two time Heisman winner.

(33:35):
I'm Archie manny um God helped me out. I just
what am I saying? I got Archie Maning on my
brain up? Yeah, they're Archie Griffin, Bill he told me
he mounted it two time Heisman winner Archie Griffin, and
Justin Jackson is your all time rushing leader, Darnel Autrey
like that one I did. I thought my t J.
Ducket was pretty funny. T J. Duckets good. Let's go
Michigan State. Um, So there you go, Justin Jackson, the

(33:58):
Big Tents, all time leading rusher and a very good runner.
And I think you're gonna get a heavy dose at him.
I think you're gonna see Austin Ekeler go back to
his familiar role, you know, between those twelve and fifteen
touches and a lot of them in the passing game.
Good news for you and good news for this guy.
Because I've said it before. My older brother got to

(34:19):
go to an Ivy League school and he got the braces.
This guy, his dad put him on a fast track
to be either a janitor or a laborer. And his
great hope for me was that I would make it
to master carpenter someday and maybe be able to have
a nice family settled down up the street on the
South side of Chicago from him with my crooked teeth.
But guess what good news Candid makes convenient, and I'm

(34:42):
getting in on this. I am, I will, I will
let you watch my path to straightened teeth that eluded
me in childhood because my older brother got the braces money.
Candidate makes convenient, affordable, easy to straighten your teeth systems
that we can all afford. I'm gonna say that again.
Cannid's clearer liner sent directly to your home, customized civically
for you to fix and straighten your teeth. It's easy

(35:03):
to use. You use their at home modeling kit they
send back. You send back your impressions and some photos.
The highly trained orthodonist then review your specific case. They
get you a three D preview of what your treatment
will look like. After you receive that, you decide if
you want to move forward or not. You can talk
to a real person and anytime if you have questions,
they'll even set up a video call to walk you
through the modeling process when you're doing it. The treatment
takes an average about this six months. That means I

(35:25):
could do it in the off season for football. Six
months is all it takes, and it costs less than braces.
Literally will save you thousands of dollars. Wouldn't Ralph and
Tony be excited if they heard that. I know I'm
gonna do it. Figured it out. I can't wait. Like
teeth are the best. Good teeth are the best. Yeah,
that's because you've got great teeth. If I paid for them,

(35:46):
I paid weight too much for them because doctor Wong
was very expensive. We didn't have Candid back in the thirties.
And guess what, Cindy, when she smiles, her teeth look
a lot better than mine. So why I don't smile
a lot and she does? She should show those things off.
You're one step away, as I am, from getting straighter,
wider teeth. Take advantage can It's risk free modeling kit guarantee.
Visit candid co that C A N D I D

(36:08):
c O dot com slash game theory. You're gonna save
on that modeling kid again, that's candid code dot com
slash game theory. Saved candid code dotcom slash game theory
off the price of that modeling kit and great teeth.
What would make me happier? Nothing? Those are two of
my very favorite things on the planet. We will start

(36:30):
our journey together, our Candid journey together. That's the plan,
and by the way they'll make a teeth wider two smile, Cindy,
do it Sin? Look at that thing. When I compliment you,
I have to say Cindy. So it's more like a
brother sister thing, you know, like a sin. Come on,
Mom said, I'm driving you to school. Shake it, let's go.
It's gonna be late on me lately. You talked when

(36:55):
you finding me on TV last week for saying creamed. Yeah,
it's gonna get creamed. All right, let's do some fantasy
future Fantasy playoffs this week. I am making a run
at my third Experts League championship. This guy right here.
You know what I'm supposed to be, Cynthia. I supposed
to be a smile, supposed to be a sweater, a
haircut on that show? And what do I do? Dominate those?

(37:15):
Don't you are the eye? Candy? I'm gonna do it again.
That's exactly where they hired man darn right. So who
do we got fantasy? You're gonna you're going to read
how spicy? Okay? All right, Adam Humphries, First, that is
a boiled potato. Guys had touchdowns the last three weeks.
Larry Fitzgerald versus Detroit. Oh, I'll give you like a

(37:37):
nice Taheen spice on that one. Not not hot, but
a spice just because he had a touchdown, and Christian
Kirk is down. And it's Larry Fitzgerald Dante Pettis versus Denver. Okay,
I got an injury to Chris Harris, but you got
that pass. Rush gonna have to deal and Nick Mullin's
gonna have to deal with Von Miller and Bradley Chubb. Okay,
I'll give you some spice on that. I'll give you

(37:58):
like a nice Frank's red hot. All right. How about
Curtis Samuel versus Cleveland. Curtis Samuel, not DJ Moore, mar
of Curtis Samuel, kind of believer, basically more spice on that.
I'll go. There are some good Denzel Award you know
where he's probably gonna go. DJ Morris way, That's what
I'm saying. So all right, I'll go. I'll go nice
Hallapan you know there. Okay, Uh, this one, this one,

(38:19):
I think I'm gonna get you. Robbie Anderson versus Buffalo. Yeah,
that's Ghost Pepper, Mike Job, That's that's Ghost Pepper. Well
done to the dogs. The games that you like the underdogs,
you're you're rolling with the points Eagles of Cowboys. Boys
favored by three and a half, but you like the
Birds the Eagles. I like the Cowboys to win in
sixty of the simulations, but I think it's closer. So

(38:42):
Cowboys twenty four Eagles twenty one. I went through. I
did a lot of stuff on this game because has
such a monstrous implication. So in my model, only seventy
seven percent or in scent of my playoffs simulations, only
one team from the NFC East makes it to the playoffs.
So whoever wins the NFC East like they're the only
one going, and this could be the game that absolutely

(39:05):
solidifies that. So for me, this one was a really
big deep dive and it's ultimately obviously Dallas's defense that's
going to really make the big difference in this one. Ultimately.
Oh yeah, we do this on game day morning too,
by the way, this is my game day morning. This
is your game on game day morning with Rich IV
and Kurt Kurt yep, those people. So makes sense. So

(39:30):
it's it's the game of the week because it's an
elimination game for the Eagles if they lose. I think
the most compelling game of the week is Ravens Chiefe,
but this is definitely the one has huge playoff implications.
So you know, look the difference if the if the
Cowboys win this game, which I have them favored to you,
it's like, you know, over sever the Eagles. If they
win this, it is over for the Eagles because they

(39:52):
have to go to La to play the Rams. They
have to take on the Texans at homes. So and
you look at the Cowboys. They get at Indianapolis, Tampa
at home at the Giants. Much easier road on paper,
at least for the Cowboys. So this is a huge
one out they do get this winning. Both teams are
seven at six. Now it's interesting, yeah, but if it
gets interesting, but if you look through the comps. So

(40:13):
the way the model works is it looks through the
comps like which team looks like which team and what
happened when Team X may face the team that with
the attributes like Team Y in the past. So with
defenses like Dallas is so great, pressures that are coming
from all over the defensive front range e linebackers that
can get all over the place to stop the run.
Those two factors were the main things that put them

(40:35):
over the top against teams that look like the Eagles,
so teams that have inconsistent run games, excellent tight ends,
and no real number one wide receiver. So it was
the defense that really that was that's what solidified the win.
But it does I do have it staying closer ultimately
because this is a must win for the Eagles and
we've seen them pull out some crazy tricks in the past.

(40:55):
I got a Vante Maddox, got Sydney Jones, I've got
Jalen Mills, I've got Davante Bosby, I've got Rossul Douglas,
Shandon Sullivan, and Cravon le Blanc. That is your Philly
secondary these days after losing their top five corners this season.

(41:19):
But they wish you could have Patrick Robinson back huh
from the Saints corner. Crazy what they have lost this season?
Uh not that Doc is some sort of deft passer
and can pick you apart through the air. But Mark
Cooper is pretty good receiver, and uh Ezekiel Elliott's a
pretty darn good back catching passes out of the backfield.
So when I look at their defense and they do

(41:40):
computer vision on this The Eagles defense, though they haven't
been running a lot of different formations, they kind of
have like one or two things that they do. They're
very flat and they do kind of the same thing
against run as they do against pass, which means they'll
be able. The Cowboys will be able to lean on
Zeke a lot in this game. Again because ultimately, like
they did, you know when they started there for our
game win streak, the Cowboys, like Zeke had like five

(42:02):
million yards in that one and two touchdowns, so ultimately
there it's because their defense isn't Jim Schwartz has not
been able to use what he's got left, which isn't much,
to make a lot of different interesting formations to stop
opposing offenses. And meanwhile, the Cowboys defense has been fast,
fantastic linebacking corps led by Van der Essh and Smith

(42:24):
has been great. De Marcus Lawrence, of course, has always
been a low to slow down in the past. Rush
just so you know, if Shawn Lee's health he's coming
back even better, he'll be out there for a quarter, right,
That was probably mean, No, I think that's going I
think this is like a like a hey, he's still
got so much. He's the best when he's out there.
I'm going to trade my way in the off season,
what makes sense. I just don't know what his value is.

(42:46):
It's just so hard. You know, he's a great player
when he's on the field. In the last part of
that sentence, just the more important part. All is that everything?
All right? Let's move on Steelers at Raiders. Wow, Steelers
favored by eleven and you're taking the points the point.
That's crazy talk. I'm not taking the I'm not taking
the Raiders. I'm taking the Steelers win in seventy of
the simulation. Of course, I only have in this one

(43:11):
part of this thing. You might give the Raiders. You're
gonna give them twenty one points. Yeah, they're bad. They've
averaged twenty four point three in their past three games. Yeah, okay,
let's go through those pett ready and go through those
past three games. Would you like to do that? Never
go past three games for the Raiders. One against the
worst defense I've watched all season, the Chiefs. They scored
thirty three. Before that, they scored seventeen against the Baltimore

(43:36):
team that basically put them away. I mean it was
thirty four to seven. On that, they had an interception,
they had a punt return. They just went back to
back to back scores. And then the Raiders got a
cheap score there. And then they beat Arizona, a team
that the Chargers scored forty five unanswered. I didn't say
the Raiders for the Chargers. I just think they're going
to score twenty one points man keeping them by three touchdowns?

(43:58):
Okay three, you're giving me each any one point? Okay, yeah,
I'll do that. Will lose this game by three. They
have no pass rush their secondary. You want to you
might me. You want to play that little stupid game
that sports. Here's a little secret for sports talk. I'll
pull back the curtain and I'll make this real quick.
When somebody doesn't know what they're talking about, they just
start going through names. They'll be like, hey, look what

(44:18):
do I think of Raiders? Steelers? How about this? How
about how about Nick Nelson? You know, uh, Karl Joseph,
Darryl Worley Okay, Jonathan Hankins, huh Okay, about about Frosty Rucker? Okay,
now you know what I'm talking about. That's what guys
do and gals when they don't know what the hell
they're talking about. Uh so, yes, I do. I suspect

(44:41):
they will generate almost zero pressure on Ben. And sometimes
Ben just does some strange things, like I saw a
lot of single cover John Antonio Brown, and Ben was like,
you know what I'm not gonna do. I'm not gonna
throw to Antonio Brown. I'm gonna overthrow Justin Hunter by
ten yards even though he was open in the end zone.
And you know what else is gonna be a great idea?

(45:02):
Let's put a linebacker and a safety. Who are they
going to put it on in this game? Who are
they going to put a linebacker around? That's gonna torch
exactly Jared Cook exactly. He's gonna take his rascal to
the ten yard out. Alright, what else you got in
this one? Anything? Pick up n S by the way,

(45:24):
it's yeah, it's I'm glad you mentioned that. I don't
know if I I don't know if I buy that
um as as a it's playoffs for fantasy, and I
picked him up in our league, and I don't think
I'm gonna play you do it? Did you do it
just so that FABS couldn't or did you do it? Well,
he's he's not even in our playoffs, so we think,
you know, what does it matter, right, he's out? Experts

(45:44):
out again. Um no, I I picked him up just
because hack. I probably shouldn't have. I probably shouldn't let
a bar pick him up so he would then start him. Um,
that would have. Because the Steelers don't run the ball.
They just they don't do it. They they just throw
it all over the place. I mean, it's like watching
Mike Leach in Washington State. It's an air rate. Uh.

(46:05):
They are not interested in running a balanced offense. Uh.
You look at those James Conner giant point totals and
they're coming on almost no carries. So that's why I
would say be careful. I know Jalen Samuels had a
touchdown last week, um, and they were using them pretty
much as the number one ahead of Ridley when uh,
when James Conner left the game. But they just don't

(46:27):
run enough. That's my only fear is is there going
to throw it around and you're not going to get
enough carries or touches for him to give you the
fifteen points that you're hoping to replace. With the injury
to James Conner. I'm more concerned about the fact that, well,
first of all, it's the Raiders, so if there is
a time to play him, it would be against the
league's whorrest's like the worst rush defense in the league.

(46:49):
So that's what they should do. But I don't know
why they don't. But I also kind of like the
fact that, I mean, look, there was a little kerfuffle
about whether Jalen Samuels was a tight end or not
because he's listed there somewhere, But ultimately, what that proves
to me is that he's first at all. So the
fact that you could have him on the field if
you get in this position where you are desperate. I'm
not saying he's a Tier one running back, Nope, not

(47:09):
saying that, but it's what are your other options? So yeah,
obviously it depends on what your options are. I'm just saying.
But I think, for if you're only going for one week,
if you're only gonna plan for one week, like in
a daily situation, that might be the one. This would
be the week. I don't know if, because I'm just
think about the value, they're same about the value. You know,
I have the exact same conundrum, um, and I just

(47:30):
I don't know if I'm gonna do it as bad
as that Raiders defense is against the run. I just man,
I wish they wish I would see it. I wish
i'd see him run the ball more, you know, and
be convinced like, Okay, that can balance this out. Big
Bank can rest his arm for a week because he's
got to take on the Patriots next week. Run the
ball twenty five times, cash the god awful Raiders defense
and uh and win us a football game. See now

(47:50):
I'm talking myself into it because that makes too much sense.
Well I'm too much sense for them. Is more to me.
This is more a nod to like if I'm only
getting him this week and I don't have to worry
about the future, this is the week that I would
would you start? Would you start Austin Ekeler? Would you
start Jaln Samuel's I would start Austin Ekeler in that situation.
That's my position. But I'm talking about for people who
only play one week. They draft for one week, they

(48:13):
played for one week. That's it, all right. As Packers
favored by six, all right, we're gonna go quick in
this one too. Packers win sixty four point six percent
of the simulations. I have a close scoring game in
this one four. I think that that's going to be
if the magic number is forty nine, I think that
you're gonna most likely to go over that fifty stimulation.

(48:33):
It's not super overwhelming, but something to note for fantasy purposes.
Why Falcon's bad defense. Aaron Rodgers actually my number one quarterback.
Closer game than I thought. And you can take Aaron
Jones too. That's kind of the overview there. Yeah, And
I think also bump. When you get that in ram
coach bump, you know, it's clear that that thing could
run its course. And typically when you have an interim coach,
they win. You know in basketball, they win their first

(48:53):
three four games, people get excited, and then they lose
their next fifteen. You're like, oh, yeah, that's right. The
team stinks and Falcon that doesn't get pressure. So I'll yeah, okay,
let's go h Colts at Texans stay here exactly zero points.
Last week, you have the Texans favored by four and
a half the key point total forty nine, but you
have well, I have the Texans winning in fifty seven

(49:14):
point seven percent of the simulations. Most likely score Texans four,
close scoring both teams lots oh points. If forty nine
your magic number, more points than that in sixty five
or at sixty what was it sixty the simulations number,
it went up. Actually on the number yep, Okay, why Texans,
Marlon mac though I think we might be down, Marlon

(49:36):
Mack and this one, you're not concerned about that. I'm
concerned about it, but I'm not It's not going to
change much. Um Texans defense top four and effective pressures
in the past week. Effective pressures or just pressures that
have caused either turnover something that has changed the course
of the game, a check down, a turn over, something
that changed the course of no big play, shorter play,
something like that. And the Colts offense anomaly last week

(49:57):
points per game anomaly, you know, twenty seven point ones
they're average now even after that zero last week and
they're down. There were number one, another number two. That's
a big deal. But it's it's it was one week off,
so we're going back. This is a big deal. I
think I'm going Texans do it. I look at it.
I don't know. I don't know if when you look
at the when you look at the Colts win streak, right,

(50:20):
So they lose the Cincinnati to open the season. They
beat the Redskins in Washington, then lose to Philly, lose
to Houston on a dumb play by Frank Reich that
very well might cost him a playoff spot that fourth
down going for it, lose to the Patriots, lose to
the Jets. Who do they beat? You know, they beat Buffalo,
to beat the Raiders, to beat the Jags, to beat
the Titans. I didn't make beat Miami when I'm getting

(50:43):
at the eat anybody. They didn't beat anybody with a
dynamic offense. And I just I feel like this Texans
offense is really humming right now. Um, and you combine
that with the dominant defense. This one by a touchdown.
The Colts defense is good, especially it's making people one dimensional, right,
They're gonna have to pass us, which obviously you can
pass on with that. DeAndre Hopkins is great. You know

(51:04):
they have great pass catchers, but making it one dimential
makes it harder. Deshaun Watson, You've seen what happens if
he gets too much pressure. So I don't they don't
underestimate the Colts defense, Alright, We disagree. Finally one let
me disagree on Actually we've been disagreeing a lot today. Yeah,
we do. But you're saying more than four and a
half points win for Texas. Yeah, okay, I think they

(51:24):
went by a touchdown. Pats a Dolphins, Pats favored by
seven and a half, and this is usually the game
that gets them. It's just like you go to Miami.
The Dolphins could have one win going into Week fifteen
and they end up getting the Patriots in this one.
Patriots win in six of the simulations right now, the
most likely score one. So that's not seven and a half.

(51:46):
That's less than that, not significantly less. It's a really
gonna it's a really like it's a really I don't
know why I said it like that, but it's really
gonna come down to who's more effective at rushing the ball.
Miami's pass three games, they've allowed six point to three
yards per rush. New England past two games over six
yards per carry allowed. Keep an eye on Zavian Howard
and this one. That's gonna make a difference. If Zaving

(52:06):
Howard's playing that, well, that's I have Zavian Howard factory too,
right now, Bangs up. Not great when you see what
happens when Minka isn't playing safety, when he's playing on
the outside, when Mika Fitzpatrick's playing corner, it's not that's
not his position, it's not. It doesn't work out for
them as well. So the secondaries one to watch in
this one to make sure that it doesn't shift the
score a little bit. You got a Gronk touchdown or no, Yeah,

(52:28):
pretty bad this year. Duke touchdown yep, okay, Sony Michelle touchdown,
Sony Michelle touchdown, Josh Gordon touchdown, No, sir, Chris Hogan touchdown, No, sir,
Julian Edelman touchdown, Yes, sir done. It's just a it's
a you know, it's fun. It's a fun exercise to
play because it's definitely last week was the Chris Hogan game.

(52:49):
But then again again, the Zaving Howard stuff could change
all of that. So that's with zaving play. All right,
let's go Jets at Bill's When you know that I've
been pushing the job Allen to see as your fantasy
streamer this week, all those rushing yards. If you've got
a real bad matchup, that's freaking you out. I'm okay
with Josh Allen, the Jets are favored by three and
a half. Aggressive, it's an aggressive amount. That seems extremely aggressive.

(53:13):
I have the Bills winning in fifty five and a
half percent of the stimulations, but just by nineteen. So
just by two. So it's a close game. Why Donald v. Allen?
That's that's kind of a that that kind of sums
it up. It's like it's a it's potential for turnovers.
I did take a look at it. Bills have eighteen
turnovers the Jets. Let me let me just jump in
here because I read it wrong. It's Bills by three

(53:33):
and a half. Yes, you are correct. The Bills are
favored by three and a half correct. Ye, And you
have the Bills winning, but you have just by two.
There you go. It's a close game, okay, Donald B.
Allen first round draft picks and I think separated by
a couple of spots. It doesn't seem like a high
scoring game. But if if you've got a low magic

(53:55):
number to get across, this is one of those things
that could go over that. With to elect a quarterbacks,
I mean I do like the quarterbacks. I just think
printing cast is crazy and I told you, Robbie Anderson,
I'm going a hundred yards rushing and two hundred yards
passing for Josh Allen. Okay, touchdowns, how about that? Perfect?
So what does that give? It gives me ten, gives
you like teen thousand, twenty six points? Perfect different interception,

(54:21):
so twenty four points. Okay, keep him honest, you exactly.
Broncos at forty niners right now the Broncos favored by
five and a half. But remember that could that very
well could change because they lost Arnold Sanders. I don't
think it will change all that much. I think it'd
be like four or four and a half. Yeah, who's
playing in this one? So Emmanuel Sanders gone, Chris Harris Jr. Gone,

(54:44):
Brita out, No, Jimmy Award, Jimmy Garoppolo not playing. So
this is a this is a tricky one. Um. I
have the Broncos winning in fifty four point four percent
of simulations. The most likely score twenty four one with
Emmanuel Sanders playing, and of their offensive targets playing that
Emmanuel Sanders And now it's down. So really it's just

(55:04):
Philip Lindsay because of the Denver's oh line ability to
block for him in the run game. It's pretty much
it go. Yeah, I just think of all the excitement
about Nick Mullins is now over, aren't they brilliant? C. J.
Beethord and Nick Mullins, And they got all this trade
capital and they're gonna be able to bring picks back
because teams are gonna want them now. No, it was
one game, one game that if you're going to have

(55:26):
the match Lynn game, you need to have it later
in the season because then you can trade them away.
You can't have it to discover. Oh yeah, he's really
not that good. So I go Nick Mullins versus Bradley
Chubb and Von Miller and see you. I'll attempted to
play the Broncos defense and this one even without Chris
Harris to get after. But at San Francisco and now
I think I'll start the Chargers d See, I'm working

(55:47):
through my playoffs. Start the Chargers as well. Yeah, all right,
let's go big one here Rams at Bears Sunday night football.
Rams going into Chicago against the number one defense. Uh
in the league. It's going to be very cold. I
would guess late at night you get the wind whipping
off Lake Michigan, the Lake effect and all of that
left Chicago. Don't miss that you got, I should say,
the number four scoring defense. The number four scoring there's

(56:11):
number four total defense, not one in the Bears. So
what do we got the Rams? Ye, Rams win in
fifty seven point two, but I only have them winning
by two points, so Bears plus a plus a field
goal in the simulations. So that's that's an interesting I
thought it would be higher scoring just given the two

(56:31):
and then I guess in fact, with the weather and
the travel everything, but when it came down to me,
is really interesting. Um two things. The first, the Rams defense,
The way that you target them is by rushing in
the middle, so behind your offensive center, and the Bears
don't really do that. So the Rams give up five
point eight yards per rush too when opposing rushers rush
behind their center, and the Bears don't really do that.

(56:51):
Their bottom five in attempts and bottom five yards per attempt.
So that's the first kind of problem. And then the
second problem is that the Rams use eleven. So according
to PFF, they use it percent of the time. When
I watch, it's an overwhelming percent the time. In fact,
I can't remember not seeing them use eleven and the
Bears used reivers exactly exactly, so the Bears use five

(57:11):
defensive backs all the time as well. Their base defense
includes is Nickel basically, so the snaps the sixth highest
rate in the NFL, and they only allow five point
yards for playing Nickels, so that's the third lowest in
the NFL. So ultimately it's we're gonna have to see.
We're gonna have to see what happens here. I still

(57:32):
have Todd Gurley as being the difference maker in this one,
but I do think the Bears will slow the Rams,
not stop them, slow them. Yeah, I think, by the way,
that's what true. Bis Key playing just in case, and
I think he's going I think so too, But I
just wanted to scorm. I'd feel the same way if
Chase Daniels playing this one too. But um, to me,

(57:53):
I think watching Ziggy onson what he was able to
do to the Rams, to Jared Goff and really just
kind of get him off a little bit. I think
that's that I think forecast well for the Bears, right,
because as good as Ziggy is for the Bears, you know,
you not only have Khalil Mack, you have a Keen Hicks.
I mean, you've got a nasty friend, You've got ro
Quan Smith in the middle of that field. You've got
defensive backs that can run. With some of these receivers.
I mean they are number one against big place. You

(58:16):
just do not get big plays and that is what
the Rams feast on. So I'm man, I can't this.
I think is the toughest game to figure out this
week because it's hard for me to envision the Bears
being able to keep up offensively. And it's also hard
for me to envision Jared Goff not being affected by
a night game in Chicago with a defense that really
beats the hell out of you. Um So, I think

(58:38):
I'm a lean Bears. I think again, I'm gonna do
what I said, what I did with the Ravens. I
think both defenses get it this week. Um So I'm
gonna yeah, I'll go. Uh, I'll be if I'd feel
a lot better if Jordan Howard were run and right
at Aaron Donald and he had been effective all season long,
because that's who, that's who's that's who you can run against. Sue,
that's what you do. And Dominican, who's not stopping the

(58:59):
run either. He's every guy on that defensive line is
just pinning their talking to like, what does my contracts say, Oh,
I only get a sack bonus. Okay, I don't care
if we're running. Exactly same with Brocker's He's running up
the field every one of those guys. Ebucam little to
all those guys just they just rushed the pass or
if they have no concern about stopping the run whatsoever.
It's hilarious to watch. All right, let's go to uh
stray dogs is what we like to call them. These

(59:21):
are the dogs that you like to not only do
better than the number, but to win the game. The
game I think that, Yeah, I think the Browns are
gonna upset the Panthers. Panthers are favored by two. I
have the Browns winning the simulations most likely score three.
So that means big time take the other side of

(59:41):
that um. Ultimately, the difference here is, Look, they've had
the defense for the Panthers has one takeaway in the
past four weeks. They played the Bucks last week, who
have the most turnovers in the league. They have that
thirty and it kind of went the other way. Kim
had four turnovers. In weeks one through nine, this Panthers
defense was able to have fifteen takeaways. That was a

(01:00:02):
lot different. So their first eight games over you know,
almost two takeaways per game in the past four one total,
So that's a huge difference to push back, especially after
watching what the Browns did last week. It just seemed
like everybody got awfully excited about Baker after the Atlanta
game and the Cincinnati game, and it's just like, gets

(01:00:23):
a really good defense, it's gonna be a little bit
tougher to do. The Falcons and the Bengals defense or
two of the worst in the league. Panthers aren't great,
but they're not terrible. Um, you know what, you know
what they're being haunted by here they have They had
a week four by the Panthers, and there's a very
good chance that there this is kind of the week

(01:00:44):
for Hunt, right, gets better. The Browns had a Week
ten by, so that's a little more fresh and obviously
they've got a lot of changes there, so it's such
a different situation. But the week four by is a
little haunting. So that's that's something to to note. Yeah,
I'll take the Panthers. I'll still take them, all right,
so we agree by a field goal that means not

(01:01:04):
only they belong in freelance favorites. You're ready, you already
got one. Do you count the quick picks, your confidence picker? Now, no,
we'll do three. We'll give you three different one three more?
All right? What we got? All right? I think that
New Orleans wains big. Okay, okay, I think that um
it stays a closer game in Indianapolis versus Houston, so
Indie keeps it closer. These are high confidence pick things, everybody.

(01:01:29):
And then I think that in Pittsburgh and Oakland it's
a low scoring game total. I think I might disagree
with two of those three, which two I think Texans
win by a touchdown, And I think pitt puts up
like a fifty spot you know on the Raiders by default,
because you know what, that would still not be a

(01:01:50):
ton of points. No, I think the Raiders, much like
they did last week when they were humiliated or not
last week two weeks ago against the Ravens, they'll just
end up getting you know, fourteen garbage points in there
as well. Okay, well, what my guess I'm going. I'm going, Hey,
you're the smart one here, I'm the idiot, So we'll
celebrate your successes because you've been really good with the
confidence picks as of late. All right, all right, let's

(01:02:12):
bring him in, Cynthia. Now that you're sent your confidence
picks have been shared, we get two our playoff percentages,
and for that, we've got a special friend that's going
to join us. Right well, nobody does better research at
and Film Network than Bill Smith, so I thought i'd
bring him in. And unfortunately for Bill, one of his
many talents is hurting the train wreck, tornado whatever that

(01:02:35):
I am with all this math and has to like
figure it out. So I thought Bill has earned an
appearance on the because all that crap he puts up
from what we're saying right basically saying, all right, so Bill,
let's let's go through it. NFC playoff percentages. Cynthia, you're
gonna walk us through and Bill is going to weigh
in how you want to do this, So I think
we'll just go really quick with it and basically tell

(01:02:57):
you the like, look, the bottom line is the one.
The people who are really still viable are the rams
locked and then it's like Saints Bears, Cowboys Seahawks, Vikings
and then probably not the Eagles, but the result of
the Dallas and Eagles game this week will be the
But also just real quick, not forget what that what
that Viking schedule looks like Seattle, and then they got

(01:03:20):
to finish in Chaka. They gotta finish with Chicago, so
I think give them the edge over Miami at Detroit
in Chicago at home. But at the same time they
lose this there's six six and one. You know, if
the Panthers win, if the Eagles win, now that makes
it a lot tougher for them to get in. If
the Panthers to the Browns. If the Panthers lose to
the Browns this week, they're effectively done. They're done. They're done.

(01:03:42):
So that's really going to be So the Vikings fans
want to be cheering for the Browns because that's that
will help them. The Panthers four games kid really changed
everything for them. So Bill will tell you what he thinks.
It is interesting about this because I look at it
too much. The biggest point after last week is the
Cowboys won a game against the Saints that they were
not expected to win. So that throws sort of a wrench.

(01:04:03):
In her model, the Cowboys went from just over to
make the playoffs all the way up to now they
play another big game this week. If they defeat the Eagles,
they are now to make the playoffs with the Eagles
all the way down from currently down to So her

(01:04:26):
model almost has this as an elimination game for the Eagles,
and on the flip side of that, with the Saints losing,
the Rams now go back to the number one seed.
So one of the things I wanted her to look
at this week is the percentage chance for the Rams
and the Saints to win the NFC overall as the

(01:04:49):
one seed with home field advantage throughout versus if they
were the two seed, where they had to most likely
travel to the other. So when I did that, so
it took the first six. So I stopped it after
the vikings, just because I had to figure it out somewhere, right,
So I drew a line after the six that we
mentioned there, and then I ran it Rams in the
one spot, and then ran and then Saints in the

(01:05:10):
one spot. And in my model, the winner of that
is six. It swings it six percent, which is like
a gigantic swing, So six full percent to win the
entire NFC in that, which is like how many of anything?
And I think, you know, just historically speaking, if you
look at what the Saints do in the Superdome versus

(01:05:32):
not in the Superdome, it's a giant, I mean a
giant difference. You let Drew Brees get after it New
Orleans and it is a big difference from asking them
to go on the road and win a game. And
the Bears could be the only non warm weather or
non indoor host in in the NFC. It's very likely,
and we could have like weird rematches, like kind of
a strange Pots said, non warm weather. Yeah, so I

(01:05:54):
mean l a sts a dome, Vikings indoors wasn't well
because Vikings wouldn't host it, right, So Cowboy's like it
could be the only one. It could be the only
one that is outside, and that would be a big, big,
a big deal, especially if it wasn't like the Seahawk
was a Vikings Seahawks NFC Championship, then Seattle would host

(01:06:16):
it outdoors in Seattle. How about that? That's crazy? You
know what impossible? It's not impossible. Um on the a
f C side, I mean, I think Bill. What's what's
interesting there? I look at this too much. So the
a f C side right now, the Chiefs in the
one spot projected to get to one seed, then the Patriots,

(01:06:36):
the Texans, the Steelers, and for all the purposes, the Chargers, Ravens,
and Colts are vying for the two wild card spots,
with the Chargers mostly solidified and then the Ravens and
Colts both above overall to get in the playoffs, but
they're very close right now. The one thing I want

(01:06:58):
to ask Cynthia about is the Colts, Broncos, Titans, and
Dolphins are all six and six right now, but she
has the Colts around to get in and the other
three teams all under twenty. So why is there that
such a disparity between four teams that have the same record.

(01:07:19):
So the first thing to note is the Broncos they
lost Chris Harris Jr. And Emmanuel Sanders this week, so
that changed both their offensive and defensive outlook. So that
was part of the reason why the remaining matchups they
went down to lower win percentages. And what's left the
Titans If they win this game, they're in much better
shape on Thursday, and with some other losses with some

(01:07:41):
with some help by other teams losing, that's a big,
big swing for them. The Dolphins unfortunately don't have I mean,
they have the Patriots left. They they don't have a
good schedule left for wins, and the Colts really I'm sorry,
who doesn't have a schedule for wins? Dolphins? The Dolphins don't,
got ye yep. And then if you look to see
between the so the Chargers could actually we can get

(01:08:03):
into second, but the Chargers are have a higher percentage
of getting making it in than the Steelers. But the
Steelers would be ranked higher because they would be a
division winner, But the Chargers could still win the a
f C West. Just just make that clear. But ultimately,
the kind of the tie between the Ravens and the
Colts are gonna come down to if the Colts, as
an underdog, but a close underdog, can win one of

(01:08:24):
their next two, so this week against Houston or next
week at Dallas, if they win one of those two,
because the rest of their schedule after that is very winnable.
So those that's it's really like a scheduling, a favorable
scheduling going forward situation there. So here's how about this,
just as someone who is not stared at these numbers
like you and Bill have for a while. You tell me,

(01:08:45):
I can either take at Houston, Dallas, Giants home at
Tennessee or Jacksonville home at Giants, Redskins, Colts at home.
I link Titans there. I know they're not a dynamic team,
but the defense is solid. Um to me, that is
so much of an easier schedule than having to deal

(01:09:08):
with the Cowboys and the Houston Texans in Houston for
the Titans, and then when you put the Broncos in
there as well. Yeah, they have the Chargers in the
final week of the season, but they get the forty
Niners and Raiders on the road and Cleveland at home. Like,
to me, that's just bang nine wins for me there,
even without Manny Sanders. And just because that pass rush

(01:09:28):
is so good, you know, you can help Bradley Roby
can really helps to have a good pass rush, though
Bradley Roby alone is hard, right, I mean, it really
helps with your pass rush if you have two corners
that are scary for people, So that makes a big difference.
So but I do think the wild cards probably the
most interesting thing left in the FC bill made me
write an article for NFL dot com. You can go
and read about the eight most important games left in

(01:09:50):
determining who's going to make it to the playoffs or
who isn't. By the way, I'd also like to point
out it doesn't matter because I don't think any of
those teams are overtaking the Ravens or the Steelers in
that wild card. I think I think those or I
think the way you have it locked right now is
what it's going to look like, except for maybe if, however,
that Chargers Chiefs Thursday night or plays out, that could

(01:10:10):
dictate I'm not gonna lie to you, there's a scenario
where the Steelers drop out too. Like the Steelers. I
don't mean to like, I'm not to be like Debbie
Downer here, but Saints, Patriots, Patriot's Week fifteen Steelers, that's
a really big game. And then it's a good point.
So it's not when you see that seven eight nine
kind of log jam there, it's not really as much

(01:10:30):
about the Ravens as it is, like, I mean, it's
very possible a f C North only sends one and
that that's kind of shocking. But you've seen some strange
things from the Steelers strange, But in order for that
to happen, one of those teams has to win out
because remember they have the tie. So if they just
go two and two, they're nine six and one. That

(01:10:53):
means either the Colts, the Broncos, the Titans, or the
Dolphins have to win out to project them to win
all four. That's why, unfortunately for the Dolphins fans, that's
not That's what I mean, that's what I don't see.
So even though the Steelers have that that you know,
they have to get play the pass at home and
go to New Orleans. They can lose both those games
and still finish nine one. Yeah, but if they dropped

(01:11:15):
one extra one, that's a little weird and could definitely
we've seen I've just seen with instant like you know,
if if James Conner is not able to come back,
or if something strange happens, which we've seen, it's it's possible. Um,
that's that's an interesting outcome on that side, Bill, which
what am I missing? I think the other big storyline
in the a f C is which team will teams

(01:11:37):
will earn the bye weeks um bye weeks Historically, especially
for a team like the Patriots have been huge and
determining who goes to the super Bowl. And with the Chiefs, Patriots, Texans,
and the Chargers, even though they're not a current division winner,
all log jammed there were very close to the same record.
How do you see those two, those two bye weeks

(01:11:58):
playing out, Yeah, I mean the Patriots. It's funny because
I remember last week and I was like, Oh, the
Patriots are just I don't know if they're gonna win
this game. I don't know what's gonna happen. They're not.
And then like, oh, now the Patriots are completely back.
But the one thing that really stands out for the
Patriots for me is still they're punting and the average
yards that are starting special teams is a big deal money.
You know a little something about this. Working for the

(01:12:20):
Chargers special teams is can be very problematic and figuring
out in the In the Patriots, like they also have
like thin linebacker corps, so you've seen injuries, You've seen
difference there. You've also seen a difference with their offensive linemen.
And I'm including all of their tight ends and they're
including gronks because they use them in different formations a lot.

(01:12:41):
So the Patriots are really going to need that extra
bit of rest if if if figures in order to
be able to overcome some of these other potential matchups. Yeah,
I don't know, because I can't figure. I want to see.
I think these next few weeks for the Chiefs are
going to be so interesting. You know. It's it's very
easy to just lock them into the number one spot

(01:13:01):
because that offense has been so good. One of my
big games left Chiefs Chargers well, and how about the
week after that going to Seattle? That is not an
easy play. Like a lot of people were dinging the
Chargers for their schedule, and now you start to look
at it and you're like, you know what, Titans team
keeps things tight. They won that game, They went to Seattle,
got to win their um. You know, obviously winning in
Pittsburgh they're huge when they needed that one to have that.

(01:13:25):
Winning in Seattle is not easy, you know, it does
not happen often. And the Chargers were able to do that,
and they should have won that game by a lot more.
Remember that was the Caleb Sturgis tries to give it away,
missed a bunch of field goals. Games. When did I
say about special teams play exactly? So that's that's what
I think is that that opens the door for New
England once again with games against the Dolphins, Bills, Jets,

(01:13:46):
the finish you know, twelve and four, thirteen and three.
If they can beat Pittsburgh in Pittsburgh and UH and
have the number one seed again. That Pittsburgh in Pittsburgh
game could be a big deal for the Steelers, but
it could also be a big deal for the buy
That's a huge game for kind of if the Patriots
are gonna have that home field advantage, and it'll be
interesting if you know. Obviously, if the Chiefs you know,

(01:14:08):
went out, they're fine, they're the number one seed. But
if the Chargers can win out, if they can end
up thirteen and three, I don't know what the tiebreakers
would be because they'll end up having two losses in
their division to the chief I think that's what it becomes.
I think it's in because they'll both have the exact
same record. If the Pats uh end up winning out
and the Chargers went out, they'll both have the same

(01:14:28):
number of losses in conference UH to a piece. And
then I think it goes to division, which the Chargers
I believe would lose. Um, and then the Pats would
end up having then number one seed that way as well.
I don't know all that off the top of my head.
The Chiefs are currently four and oh in the a
f C West, so they would just have the one
division loss exactly, So they would have to I mean,
they have to lose two. They've got to lose either

(01:14:49):
to the Ravens this week at Seattle along with losing
to the Chargers because they will win by virtue of
their perfect record, or they would only have one loss
in the division. The Chargers would have to the Chiefs
in the Broncos. So we see, we figured out all
the world's problems, bills or anything. Is there any one
of the games in my model that you think is
wrong for this week? The Browns and Panthers game I

(01:15:15):
think is a little tricky. Um. I know your model
heavily waits the last four games for a team, which
is a good thing because that's what teams look at
the team like. Coaches typically look at about four games
worth of four past games worth of film. That's the

(01:15:36):
most common number. So now that you have the Panthers
with a four game losing streak. The streak and the
momentum that they're on, I feel like maybe waited a
little too heavily in the model at this point. Do
you mean so you think that you think the Panthers win?
I think the Panthers can win this game, yes, Ken?
Or do Panthers can win it? I think the Panthers
will win this game? Alright? Alright, fine, both of you

(01:15:58):
take the cats. I'll take and Orange at dogs ever, cats,
dogs ever, Cats have fun. I like dogs. I don't
like cats. Nobody like exactly. Well, you guys picked the cats,
and I picked the dogs, So there you go. Panther though,
I like a panther like a jungle cat, all right,
And I don't like a domestic cat like a jungle cat.
I'll take that domestic. I'll take a dog jungle. Give

(01:16:19):
me a cat. Awesome. They dominate and especially in a fight.
By the way, I'll take a cat over a dog
all day. I'm just talking about who do I want
to hang out with. I want to hang out with
a dog. But if you're asking me who I want
to win a fight, I'll take the cat. Cats are nasty,
man get after you, so I don't like him, all right?
Is that it? What imagine you're getting in with a cat.

(01:16:41):
It's just really funny. Yeah, we went really long. We
gotta go wait long. All right, everybody, thank you for downloading, listening, streaming,
and we appreciate you and your reviews and your ratings
and passing along to friends through social media, interacting with
us through social media, specifically Cynthia, because I got very
little to say to you. You shut up already. It's
about all I get when it comes to this podcast.

(01:17:02):
So all right, that's uh that, that's that. That is
happy week. And remember, if you take nothing else away
from this, my teeth are gonna be straight candidate co
dot com slash game theory. Take the journey with me.
That's what I want you to take on. All right,
Thanks everybody, and Seawan Shoppy and Mark Brady as well,

(01:17:23):
because they were mad, they were okay,

All Episodes

Episode Transcript

Popular Podcasts

On Purpose with Jay Shetty

Dateline NBC

Stuff You Should Know

.css-15opob5{left:0;position:absolute;top:0.8rem;} All Episodes

.css-14f5ked{margin:0;word-break:break-word;display:-webkit-box;-webkit-box-orient:vertical;box-orient:vertical;-webkit-line-clamp:2;overflow:hidden;}Game Theory and Money: Week 14 Predictions and Playoff Projections

Episode Transcript

Popular Podcasts

.css-r6mb8g{margin:0;word-break:break-word;display:-webkit-box;-webkit-box-orient:vertical;box-orient:vertical;-webkit-line-clamp:1;overflow:hidden;}On Purpose with Jay Shetty

Dateline NBC

Stuff You Should Know

All Episodes

Game Theory and Money: Week 14 Predictions and Playoff Projections

On Purpose with Jay Shetty