Game Theory and Money Week 15 Predictions

Cynthia Frelund is on fire, coming off a week where she correctly picked 13 winners against the spread! She ran 10-thousand simulations on every week 15 game, so who does she have coming out on top in Patriots-Steelers? Chargers-Chiefs? Cowboys-Colts? The answers are a click away.

Chiefs-Chargers (2:25). Eagles-Rams (7:50). Saints-Panthers (12:40). Texans-Jets (15:10). Ravens-Buccaneers (17:15). Seahawks-49ers (18:45). Redskins-Jaguars (21:45). FANTASY FUTURES (24:00). Patriots-Steelers (26:05). Packers-Bears (31:20). Cowboys-Colts (34:40). Raiders-Bengals (38:00). Cardinals-Falcons (40:05). Dolphins-Vikings (41:35). Lions-Bills (46:10). Titans-Giants (49:50). Browns-Broncos (52:05). CONFIDENCE PICKS (54:40) NFC PLAYOFF PREDICTIONS (55:50). AFC PLAYOFF PREDICTIONS (58:20).

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
Welcome to what's that? What are you giggling about? You're
on game theory and Bunny Cynthia. We like to come
out strong. We don't like to play the grab bass
to get things rolling. You always give me a quick
pick to start, but I'm not gonna let you because
your week fourteen was something to behold. Thirteen and three
against the number in the holiday season, no less, boy,

(00:20):
is that something that a lot of folks would describe
as Christmas cheer, as the holidays doing them a great favor.
So well done, A big huszah to you, and three
for three on your confidence picks, so well done. I
will start with that, and now you can give the
people your quick picks so they don't fast forward through
this the second we get rolling, well where it's giggling

(00:41):
because I my quick pick is something you're not gonna like.
It's Detroit and Buffalo. Lots of points in that one. Okay, Hey,
when you're three for three on your confidence picks and
you want to come with Detroit and Buffalo scoring a
lot of points, I'll tell you. Josh Allen Rushing for
I think it was like a hundred and fifty one
point seven to be precise there. Just kidding, not really,

(01:04):
but yeah close enough. I mean I didn't know we
were keeping track of partially guards in the year the
box score, but apparently the analytics department does do that
in fact, so well done, Yeah, well done. Um, all right,
so that is your quick pick. Remember again, she, and
by she I mean Cynthia does us all the great
service of running ten thousand simulations per game to make

(01:27):
us all a little bit smarter when it comes to
trying to figure out how these games are going to
play out. And last week they played out according to
her model to the tune of thirteen and three against
the number her confidence pick. She is now twenties six
of forty four on the season. So let's get right
into it. Are you ready? Kind of? Are you ready?
My my suite? My G suite being a little finicky

(01:49):
right now? Is it really for real form? I'm reloading
it right now. I think it's worthy. I think it's
more the Internet than the G Suite most definitely, because
sweets five, I got internet right here, so it's got
to be your Internet up there were like something I'm doing.
I don't know therew it? You got it all right?
Here we go it's like this white screen of death

(02:11):
that like doesn't want me to Okay, come on, oh
my goodness, there we go. All right, are you good?
Ye're gonna start with the early one because this is
Freeland's favorites. As the name suggests, you like the favorites
this week. The number is Chiefs by three and a half.
This is likely, Well, it's not likely, it is well no, yeah,
I could say likely. If the Chiefs win, they win

(02:33):
the division. If they lose, then the Charger is still
gonna need a little bit of help. They would need
the Chiefs to drop you to the contest up at
Seattle or against the Raiders. Seattle is very very losable. Yeah, yeah, well,
this one's gonna have to be losable for the Chargers first.
And according to the category, it all does not matter.
The Chiefs will get out of this one because you
like the Chiefs by more than three and a half.

(02:53):
What you have the final score and how much confidence
you got it. I have the Chiefs winning this game
in sixty two point seven percent of the simulations. Final
score most likely twenty three. So it's going to be cold,
it's going to be potentially rainy, it's going to be
potentially gusty. It doesn't sound fun for it sounds like
really inclement um, you know, play by play situation. You

(03:16):
know you're gonna have to get some tea, You're gonna
have to bundle up, you know. Fortunately, and I don't
mean to take shots at the folks that did the
remodel at Arrowhead because it is one of my favorite stadiums,
but sadly they did not build the press box to
have windows that open, and that is a big, big
no no in my book. You cannot have the press

(03:38):
box being closed when you want to be part of
the elements. Have it open, really feel, especially a place
like Arrowhead, which I think is the loudest stadium, even
more loud than the than the Seattle, the clink Um.
And it's just a bummer that they sealed that whole
thing in and you can't open the windows, so I'll
be warm and toasty. I'll actually probably be way too warm,
which is what usually happens when I would love that.
But unfortunately for people playing the game, I think that

(04:00):
means fewer points than maybe you'd think. Given these two offenses,
like the number one and the number two big play offenses.
Casey being number one and the charters being number two.
But unfortunately between the running back situation, as in, I
mean you can, you can help me with this injury report,
but it does not appear that Melvin Gordon or Austin

(04:20):
Ekeler will be available for this game. Correct me if
I'm wrong here. Probably not, I would guess. I think
with with Austin at the time we're doing this pod
still being in concussion protocol and him dealing with that
next stinger reinjuring an act from earlier in the season,
I like, Justin Jackson, I just you know, it's not
Melvin Gordon and it's not Austin Ekeler, and that probably
would have been a big path, big part of a

(04:40):
path to victory for them, especially with that weather. With
the weather right, and the fact that the Chargers actually
have the second fewest drives over the past four games,
so the offense isn't on the field as long as
you might think, given the fact that they've scored so
many points. So you're you're actually like, that's a bad
situation considering how well Kansas City can score. They can

(05:01):
score fast and they can score slow, So I think
the advantage goes to Kansas City in the weather at
home at Arrowhead. I'm sorry, Yeah, no, I think, Um,
I think the path for the Chargers to win this one, obviously,
you know, as the Ravens proved is and the Broncos
nearly proved when they played them, UM is going to
be holding that score down. And I think that's maybe

(05:22):
the one thing that could be a I don't know
if I would call it an outlier, maybe that's how
I would describe it, but just the fact that they're
coming off that game against the Ravens on a short week,
and I don't know how the model adjusts for such
a physical game. It is clearly the most beat up
that Pat Mahomes has gotten a game. It's the most
physical game they've played all years. We have four days

(05:44):
to recover that may come into play. Yep. So the
Chiefs win, I told you six to two point seven.
They only win by more than three and a half
points in fifty seven point nine. So that's the beat
up factor right there. So you see like it really
I mean three and a half as I mean basically
a fieldical. So that's that's the beat up factor right there. Yeah,
I think if it'll come down to the defense. If

(06:06):
Joey Bison and Melvin Ingram can can be special and
and really kind of beat him up early, it is
possible that just very hard to climb out of dealing
with kind of a lot of extra pain from that
game Sunday, short week and you're getting beat up, and
maybe you don't do what you normally would, which is
run around throw the ball like he was able to do,
because you're tired of taking shots. But I just don't

(06:26):
quite see that happening because they've been able to score
points regardless of the situation. So so alright, my thing
about Derwin James, Oh, here's what I want to know
from you, because you have the best per view to this.
So Derwin James, who for me is the best defensive rookie,
I've got a lot of ways to measure, but we're
just gonna summ it up by saying that. And I
want to see Derwin versus a confusing run game. We

(06:46):
don't know, I mean, Damian Williams Spencer, where doesn't he
didn't practice today? You know, this is Tuesday, so we
I don't know what will happen tomorrow, but it's possible
we're looking at a Damian Williams and charch Andrick West games.
So it's going be interested to drwin against the run,
drwin against Travis Kelsey. That's gonna be Yeah, I think
that's probably you know, they've played him, it's almost been

(07:09):
equal high versus in the box. I think if they
had their druthers and they had a legitimate free safety,
not someone playing out of position and it die, Um,
he'd be in the box the whole time. He's so effective,
there's much more effective. But you know, when they played
the first time, he really pretty much shadowed Kelsey the
whole time, and Kelsey did not have a great game,
So that may be what I'm looking at. Yeah, yeah,
with with the ability to rush for um, that may

(07:29):
be the case. But also you know, Joe makes them
beat him up pretty good last week, and they had
to put Drwin in the box um a lot more
to try to help with run support and had a
couple of nice uh say you know. Anyway, there there's
some there's some crappier games this week. So that was
just an interesting one that sure to watch for because
game of the week. Okay, no, it's only the second

(07:50):
game of the entire podcast. But we have to actually
redo something because we tape the podcast on Tuesday night
this week because Money, the voice of the Chargers, our
favorite rate play by play guy, has to go to
Kansas City in order to do all of his Chargers
duty on Thursday night football. So of course the day
that we are the week that we choose to do
an early podcast, there's a gigantic change at quarterback, as in,

(08:13):
Carson Wentz is not playing and Nick Foles is now in.
So we're gonna redo this second game and I've brought
in the heavy hitter here. The very best researcher on
the entire planet is Bill Smith. He's gonna help me
in this segment, and they're gonna have him come on
later again to do the playoff odds. But Bill, thank
you for a pinch hitting here. I really appreciate it.
No problem. So just to tee it up for you.

(08:34):
Before the Carson Wentz injury, the Rams were favored over
the Eagles by nine. You had a score of Rams.
Now with Nick Foles at quarterback instead of Carson Wentz,
the new line is Rams minus eleven. Who do you
have in this one? So I have the Rams winning
this one and it now went up to eighty one

(08:55):
percent of the simulation, so that's really high number for
the simulations, and the most likely score is thirty three
to eighteen, which is more than eleven. So for you,
it went up five points without Carson Wentz even though
the magic number out there only one up two points.
Why is this such a big difference for the Eagles. Well,

(09:15):
in this one, it goes to more possessions for the Rams,
so more possessions, more opportunities to score Rams offense. But
it's really this tipping point of the Eagles were already
severely depleted their cornerbacks. It's hard. You know, last week
Money went through and named them. They're not the original starters.
They're kind of on cornerback number seven, eight, nine, ten,
something like that. So it's it's that in addition to

(09:36):
now your quarterback, who last season was playing m VP
consideration level, he's starting to come He was playing very well,
kind of underrated good um compared to their win loss records.
So it's just really now you've reached this tipping point
of you're just playing with her too many replacement levels
and replacement level players and you're playing the Rams. So
in other words, Carson Wentz was able to mask some

(09:58):
of the problems that the Eagles have. You was able
to keep it down and hide those. And now even
though Folds isn't maybe five points worse than Carson went
Folds is not five point five points worse than Carson
Wentz now, but that the way the Eagles have to
play now exposes flaws they have elsewhere on their roster.
And because if things like you know, think about things
like this, if the if the Rams now have like

(10:21):
let's say, another full possession, So another full possession means
another chance for seven points, another chance for seven points.
So sometimes it's a field goal, sometimes it's six points.
So that's where it comes in to be five points.
So this really reflects the fact that the Rams offense
will now have yet another possession to do to do
some damage. But I do want to talk a little
bit about their Rams because after what we saw on
Sunday night, I think it's important to contextualize some of

(10:44):
the play we saw, specifically by the Rams offense, because
it was a little confusing. Yes, it was freezing cold. Yes,
Jared Gossam only played two cold weather games, and no
one on this pot is silly enough to think that
that's enough of a sample size to tell us anything.
Two is not a big enough no. Just to clear
that up, not a big enough sample size. But you
brought up a really great point when you and I

(11:04):
were talking about this, and I think that the podcast
listeners would love it. So if you project forward, as
this podcast does a lot, the Rams after that loss
now project to be the number two seed in the NFC, which,
if you look divisional weekend, very likely that they face
the Bears again. So if you're facing the Bears twice
in about a month, someone like Sean McVeigh, forward thinking, innovative,

(11:30):
sees that down the road, And in my mind, I
don't believe he laid all his cards out on the table. Offensively,
their team that runs predominantly eleven personnel, which is one
running back, one tight end with three wide receivers, and
everything looks the same, and then they do multiple actions
off of what's essentially of just a couple uh positional formations.

(11:54):
So I don't believe McVeigh wanted to get everything he
has in his bag of tricks out there for the
Bears to see, the Bears to scout. I think he
played everything a little close to the vest. They didn't
use Todd Gurley in a number of different ways. He
was limited by the bears they got behind, So it's
another reason you didn't see a lot of girly. But
I just think he was projecting towards the playoffs and

(12:16):
wanted to sort of play this game a little closer
to the vest. All right, great, so now we're gonna
give you back to what we taped on Tuesday. Bill
is going to come back a little bit later to
go through the playoffs scenarios because nobody does that better.
But we're gonna go back to originally. One. Thank you
for like dealing with our puzzle piece together, but we
wanted to make sure you had the absolute best information,
most up to date. And of course if you bring
Bill on like it's just amazing. So thanks Bill. We'll

(12:38):
see in a minute. Saints at Panthers Monday Night Football.
The Saints on the road are another big number six
and a half, and the model still likes the big number.
Yeah Saints wine. Cent of the sims, I have the
most likely score being Saints thirty and the Panthers twenty three.
The Saints just barely by six and a half. Well

(12:59):
they actually they actually went by seven or more in
sixty two the simulations. So I mean, look, this one
comes down to defenses, and the Saints defense is in
this huge uptick only twelve point eight points per game
best in the NFL. NFL over the past four weeks.
Like yards per planned first down is the fourth fewest.
Like I look at trying to look at ways where
they can stabilize things for Cam Newton and make things

(13:22):
kind of better, and it just seems like everything that there,
this defense is doing so much pressure, the most effective pressure.
They're going in the right direction, while the Panthers defense
the second verst passer rating allowed in the past four
only the Chiefs are worse, and they only had three
takeaways and all our fumbles they haven't had an interception.
So it's just one of those things where look like
the Panthers defense is the down arrow, of the Saints

(13:42):
defense is the up arrow. And this is the time
of your Saints need to absolutely solidify home field advantage.
So I think they come up big here. Yeah, and
they got to get that they I mean, they just
gotta get their offense right. It's something Drew Brees is
nothing goods pretty much. As it turns out, Torn Armstead
kind of a big deal, little bit lose your left half.
Not as good fall apart. Oh we know that, darn well. Um,

(14:05):
but he the running game has not been great, the
short passing game has not been great. Michael Thomas has
been invisible, and as you mentioned, it's their defense that's
been carrying them. Um. And I don't think that's the recipe.
The samet you saw in the second half that you
saw Michael Thomas come kind of back right like you
saw they pulled it together. It felt like a completely
different team second half and the second half against arguably

(14:28):
the worst defense, and I mean one of the worst
defenses in all of football. So and I think that's
kind of you know, when we talk about to get
right game, Um, I thought that might be it front
but maybe this is it. Um. You think there's something
about Tampa Bay and whatever. They have some weirdness in
Tampa Bay, kind of like the Patriots in Miami. But
I think I don't think that this is Yeah, it's
a Florida thing. Florida's got something on dominant teams. I

(14:48):
was trying to come up with like a like a reason,
and I'm like, well, older quarterbacks, they think about retirement.
People when they retire, they go to Florida, so they
play poor in Florida. There you go my logic. Right.
The Texans are on the road in New York against
a Jets team who a nice little rally from Sam
Donald there to uh to beat the Bills look pretty
darn good when he returned. Uh. The Texans are favored

(15:12):
by six on the road, and you have them winning
seventy two point four percent of the simulations. I have
it by six and six point five and the most
likely score in my model twenty six to nineteen. That's
a high number considering the magic number. So overall higher
scoring game than we might think. Look, there's a couple

(15:35):
of reasons why, but ultimately, the Jets defense is allowing
five point eight yards per run over the last four
yards per rush over the last four that's the second
wors in the league. That's helps stabilize things. I think
New Copkins is a giant week. I think we see
a lot of I think we see a lot of
kind of good things that it's really hard to win
as many games in a row as the Texans did so,

(15:56):
dropping one to the Colt's a divisional arrival. That that's
like the end of the world, right, So I think
that with your defense looking like the Texans defense against
the offense that we see we've seen week and week
out from the Jets, I just like this is one
where you know, I look at it, I'm like, the
model makes sense with my gut. Yeah, I mean, I
don't know what to make it the Jets, although I
will give you props here. You called that Robbie Anderson

(16:18):
touchdown last week. I was asking for something spicy and
what did you say, how's Robby Anderson? I said, ghost
pepper spicy And you were dead on in that one.
So well done. Maybe will get something that spicy and
it will come through again and again. Thirteen and three
against the number last week. So let's let's get the
bucks at Ravens. Ravens let one slip away. Darnath should

(16:38):
have taken care of me and Ravens should have taken
care of me last week, two different fourth downs. But
I'll tell you that that fourth and nine pass from
Pat Mahomes, it might be the greatest past I've ever seen.
And I'm not right fourth fourth down. I mean that
just running to his right as fat. The next gen
stats on that are crazy. The fact that guy was
running sixteen miles an hour and was somehow we to

(17:00):
square his body throw with anticipation. Granted was a linebacker
in front of Tyreek kill, but basically triple cover. Still
and still, I think the level of difficulty is pretty
much maxed out. Yes, uh, if it goes to ten,
it was twelve. The level of difficulty was so to
the Ravens, who unfortunately let one get away. Um, despite

(17:21):
playing a hack of a game against the Chiefs, they
are favored by eight at home against the Bucks, and
you like that. I do the Ravens winning in the
simulations the score that's most likely in the model, which
means more than eight, And then when I run it
for and how many times it go over eight percent
of the simulations, it's a higher scoring games slightly than

(17:42):
you know a magic number might tell you the biggest
reason for this. Look, the Ravens defense just means so
much more time for the Ravens offense. And you can
run against the Bucks. So those two things, if you
have a stingy defense and you can run the ball,
I don't care if it's Slamar Jackson. I don't care
if it's Gus, I don't care if it's sticks, and
I don't care who it is. If you can run
the ball and you have that great of a defense,
you give yourself a really, really big chance of winning.

(18:04):
Based on what history can tell us, I've got nothing,
I've got nothing to push back. I think the Ravens
are one of the better teams, one of the I
think they're going to be a bear to deal with
um in the playoffs, because man, that defense is good
and they are Yeah, I guess that's true, and there
bears probably not. They're gonna be a load, big bird
load to deal with in the playoffs. Birdload when you're

(18:25):
parked underneath freaking telephone wires. How about that? That was terrible, sophomore.
That's what I have to offer to yet. I think
it's really funny. Speaking of birds. We've been a long
day together, money we have exactly, it's been about twelve hours.
That's actually more than that's been twelve hours since that,
not more than that since I first saw you. All
right to the uh the Seahawks at forty nine, big

(18:47):
victory four. That Seahawks defense that is really hitting its stride.
They are favored by five and a half on the road.
I guess the Niner team that had a nice showing
against the Broncos. No less, and you still like the
Bird in this one. Yeah, Birds again. Seahawks win seventy
seven point seven simulations. Seahawks score that's most likely, which

(19:09):
means more than five and a half and sixty of
the simulations, so higher scoring just based on the key point,
you know, the magic line for the for the for
the points um. But ultimately, look the San Francisco defense.
They haven't had any takeaways in the past four games.
They've allowed an eighty seven point five red zone touchdown percentage.
Is so worse than the NFL over the past four games.

(19:30):
By the way, there's this guy, Russell Wilson. He's a
good run game. There's just a lot of things that
stabilize on the side of the Seahawks and a lot
of things on the side of San Francisco. I mean,
you just lost Pierre Garson. It's just it kind of
just keeps getting worse. It's crazy. How many playmakers can
you lose before you're you know, out of it. I
haven't asked that question again in another game. So I
think they're on their fifth running back, Uh, their third quarterback,

(19:53):
their fifth running back. It's yeah, they've they've lost wide
receivers all season long. I mean really, the one consistent
has been George Kidling. He's really good. He's really good.
He's beat a Seahawks team that's really kind of found
in identity. Um, they have really good players. Uh. And
by that I Sierra performs at halftime. It's a family affair.
Flip that thing off, flipped out of that one. So

(20:17):
tired of the performance at halftime. I didn't like how
long her extensions where she would sit on them. It
was bothering me. It was bothering me too. They cut
to the booth and I was like, what the hell
are you? What do you? What is that? As a
person who wears ex sensage regularly, I can tell you
can't go longer than your normal hair. That's anyway. I
guess that's what the kids want. Huh. Extensions, that's what

(20:38):
you get on the chat snap. All right, so Seahawks.
But what I was going to say is, um, I
like that they play with their strengths. You know, they
feed everything to the middle, Bobby Wagoner's flying, you know,
from sideline to sideline, and Peter Right making plays and yeah,
exactly hopping over people not getting whistled for it. But
also that they have a bad pass blocking line, you know,
and that's why they run the heck out of the
ball and they are committed to it, and it is

(20:58):
so hard for teams to do that. They just they
can't help themselves. Offensive coiners could coordinators cannot stick with
that plat where they get fired after thirteen games when
that happens in others, right, that's I mean, it's it's
one of those, and that's what happened. I gotta show motion,
pre step motion, r p o S and I've got
to push the ball down field. Gotta win games. Ye

(21:19):
got to win games. And if Sean McVeigh had followed
the Seahawks blueprint against the Bears, he very well might
have won that game. I mean they you know, granted
Sullivan went down for a minute, but they clearly did
not stick with the run long enough. And those defensive
ends just pin their ears back and beat the living
hell out of Jared Goff, who was terrified. He looked
like two thousand and six Jared Goff out there like

(21:40):
bamb beyond the ice. Just I mean, I don't think
I saw him set his feet once in that anyway,
I'm on a tangent alright, Redskins Sawar's the Jags are
favored by seven and you got him. Yeah, the Jack's
winning sixty three and a half percent of the simulations
most likely score here, Jags eat the touchdown line in

(22:02):
the sand of the simulations. Thirty six seems like a low,
you know, magic number to achieve, like, you know, pretty low,
probably too low, um, and not because of anything the
Redskins are going to be doing. You know. I actually
was talking to I really love that the analyzed people
that the Jags are awesome, and I was talking to
one of them was like, yeah, I think that we're

(22:23):
gonna have Washington have negative yards this game. So they're
like our goal is to like anyone who's not trying,
like they're off the team, you know, like this is
like that's the one thing I'm worried about is it's
a team with a lot of abrasive personalities and been
such a bad year that you wonder, do you think
Josh Johnson knows all of their names? From Madden though,

(22:45):
because Josh Johnson may not know everyone on the teams
because that's what he was doing to learn their names
playing Madden, which I really think is code for playing
Fortnite and not listening to their names. But whatever. But
Fortnite has a partnership with the NFL and you can
now wear the jersey so of your favorite NFL players
long fortnight. It also get you into the Fortnite pains. Um. Yeah,

(23:05):
it'll be interesting. I'm anxious to see because man was
that ugly coming out of the Tennessee game, and I
can only imagine what that flight was like because that
was a defense that decided not to show up whatsoever.
Look like if I had to say someone was quitting,
I think that's potentially what we saw right, a little
bit of So they bounced back. They have enough pride
to try to finish this season seven and nine when

(23:26):
a lot of people picked him to win the AC
So I think I think, like I said, like, I
don't love thinking about a magical. I just don't like
the game. I like this. This is not a game
that I would mess with, as much as I'd like
to take on Josh Johnson or Mark Sanchez with a
Jaguars defense that features all that talent. I just don't
know what to expect from him, right, But if I

(23:48):
had to pick, I'm with you. I know you're speechless.
It's kind of a like with you. This is not
the most fun game to pick, right, you know, and look,
some of them we like more than other. Set's why
you do conference picks. I do want some fantasy futures.
What do we got? I will judge, because you submit
to me. I judge, and I tell you if they're
spicy enough for me or not. Are old people spicy?

(24:11):
I would guess old people are bland. You think so, Davis? Yeah,
I'll take that. I think that's again he's got Code
Kessler throwing the ball at him against the Jacksonville defense.
So I'm sorry to Josh Johnson told the ball at him.
But I think I think, to me, that's spicy. Okay, alright, good?
I think old people can I plan on being very
spicy when I'm like an old grandma, say whatever I want. Yeah,

(24:32):
I guess that's as you don't care. No, I'm not
gonna care, not at all. Um. How about a how
about a Dale in Richard? Awesome? Showing including a touchdown. Yeah,
I'll take that. That spicy because Martin has been playing well,
so Richard's fine. I mean I don't think you. I
would imagine it'll be started in five percent three percent
of leagues. So yeah, that's spicy. Okay, all right, all right? UM,

(24:53):
I feel like if we talked about in fantasy, I like,
try to stay away from it. Come on, just do it.
I mean, I saw the Elijah McGuire touchdown. Everyone knows
that one, like it volume play, you know. Okay, what
about all right, I'm gonna go I'm gonna go a
little spice here on this one. Um, how about a
Ricky Seals Jones touchdown? Okay, I'll call you a senior

(25:13):
reda spice for that one. That's sure. That's pretty good, Yeah,
because they haven't done anything. That was probably the ugliest
game of the year last week between the lines, and
you watched it. You're dumber sixty minutes watching that. That's
just the and everybody about everybody is hurt from that game.
And by the way, I have the Eric Ebron like

(25:33):
potential for two touchdowns. So that's the way you attack
that team. That's that's the way you attack. That just
wanted to put that out there to make percent middle
of the field. Those guys, if you go right at them,
that's just that's the way you have to take those linebackers.
He's big and you just got it and lately, you know,
talk about the middle on the seams. Yeah, all, let's

(25:55):
get to the is that it? I mean, I could
go more, but that was what I planned for. On
what you want to leave the people thirsty? Okay, they
come back next to exactly all? Right? To the dogs?
You like the you like the points here, So Pats
at Steelers, Pats favored by three. You don't like the
idea of the Steelers being a home dog even though
they have struggled three in a row. Who's playing running back?

(26:16):
Do you know yet? Because I don't know as of
right now. No, I would bet it's probably still Samuel's
That's my guess. I don't think what this number is
based on. So I just wanted to point that out.
Patriots winning fifty six point one percent of the simulations.
Most likely final score Patriots twenty six stealers. So just
think about the Patriots winning. Don't worry about three points.
Just just think about the Patriots winning this game. That's

(26:37):
kind of how I feel about it. Yeah, I think
said just speaking to Samuel's I mean, what the he
catches the ball well out of the backfield, you know,
and that's what they want from their backs. Um, so
I don't you know, is he as good between the tackles? No,
I mean not as Connor as Connor is, but Connor's
not really great with his hands. Um, We've seen a
bunch of those passes just kind of pop out, and
you are setting me up perfectly. You're setting me it perfectly.

(26:59):
Oh sorry, because well, because look the Patriots defense eight
point four or six yards per play allowed on first
down over the past four that's ridiculous. Obviously most of
that comes from passing. Those are not rushing yards. But
like when you look to see who's doing the passing
and where they are, it's nowhere where they use James
Conner and it's nowhere where And obviously it's a tiny
sample size for Jalen Samuels, But that's not what that's

(27:21):
not what the Steelers do, right, Like they're kind of
like get in the middle of the field. They're not
bouncing on the outsides like like you they're not love Bell,
you know what I mean, Like it turns out very
few are right so, but it just doesn't the way
that the way to keep the Patriots honest with down
in distance, it's not what the Steelers have been showing
over the past four games especially. And the other thing,

(27:45):
and this is a huge deal the Steelers defense second
words passer or reading passer reading a lot on first
and I know that sounds a weird one to pull,
but I'm trying to quantify the fact that there's defense
hasn't been adjusting to what they've been seeing very well.
And first down is one of the places that you
see that if people are crushing you in passing and
you don't change what you're doing, and especially on first

(28:08):
down when it could go either way, that that's one
of the indicators that you see for not adjusting to
what they're seeing on the field. The Steelers win, dude,
I just think as you mentioned their past, I'm just
kind of looking at it and listening to you talk
about yards per play on pass and I just don't
think they have the horses just sliw mean, Juju is
so good. He is hitting his stride. I mean, he
is if they have two number one receivers um and

(28:31):
I guess if they I'll put it this way, this
is the Steelers season. To me, it's and I think
that might be pointed out the obvious, but it just
seems like it's this tipping point of this is a
team that could come in as the four seed and
they could make it out of the a f C
to the Super Bowl, and I would not be surprised
at all. That front line is nasty. I mean it
is freaking Hardgrave is the most is he's the He's

(28:53):
the best defensive player I've seen all season. I could
not believe what that guy was doing. I mean, he
was picking up offensive lineman and tossing him as like
they were rag dolls. He was shedding blocks and closing
running lanes that you thought were wide open um in
the blink of an eye. He was making life miserable
for for Rivers in that game. And I went back
and watched a couple of his other games just to

(29:13):
make sure what I saw was not just a one
game theme. Holy crap, that dude is good. And I
think with an older Tom Brady that's been under a
little bit of the rest this season, don't let that
Miami game fool you. I look at those front three,
you know, and Heyward to it and Hardgrave, and I
think this is their game and they said game where
they can really get after Brady. And then when you
start feeding off with with t J. Watt Um, I

(29:37):
I mean, I got this feeling that the Steelers are
gonna do it big, I really do, and if they don't,
it tells me that it's just not right like and
I mean attitude wise, like everybody hates Ben Mike Tomlin's
lost control. You got the left bell group and you
got the not left bell group. That's what you always here.
And to me, that's like, because this team is way
too talented, way too talented to be seven five and
one and lose the games they're losing. It felt like

(29:59):
last game against the Dolphins, the Patriots defense was just
playing down in distance sort of like is it zone
as a man or like like they weren't making adjustments
as like they usually do. I'm not sure why I
and maybe I don't know if someone hurt we don't,
I don't. I don't know why that happened. But ultimately
I think you've seen like some weirdness from the Patriots.
That indicates that there's a potential for what you're saying

(30:21):
to happen for Tom Brady to get rattled. So in
my gut, I would be equally. I would be equally
as is not surprised if the Steelers won this game,
if they don't make it to the playoffs, Like do
you know what I'm saying? Things are just wrong? Things
are bad there, and there's going to be changes. Mike
Tomla might be out, Um, players could be traded, whatever

(30:44):
it might be. But um, for whatever, why they should
they match up so well against the Paths with that
defensive front, with their strong offensive line, with their ability
to work the outside. I just think now we see
this is where we see like all those different use
cases for their running backs like the Sony Michelle, the
James White, the we were like, oh, which one is it? Like,
I think that's where that pressure just gets That's that

(31:04):
it just takes the pressure off Brady with that. So
I mean, look, it's not like I'm saying Patriots win
and a dent of the simulations, right, fifty six point
one isn't super convincing. So no, but you also have
again you have you're taking you know, you're taking the
Steelers essentially, I mean you've you've got them, you know,
by less than three. I mean, like the numbers three
So Packers Bears, Bears favored by five and a half.

(31:26):
You like the pack I do Bears win sixty five
and point four percent of the simulations. Most likely score
I have is Bears. The Packers win or don't win
by five and a half or less in fifty eight
point four percent of the simulations. So honestly, here here's
what it boils down to. This is one of those games.

(31:47):
The Packers their defense has been horrible. They've been horrible
on every down. They're they're passing defense, especially on first down.
On the they've been very targetable. Good They're not good,
not a good team. But this is a game where
you see some some randomness. You see like the Aaron Jones,
you see like the you know you you see this

(32:08):
is the Aaron Rodgers super prep game and the Bears
that was a very emotional when last week there's a
lot like they just lost a cornerback probably maybe we're
not sure, as I haven't seen that he's like officially out,
but one of the Bears cornerbacks was two picks. He's
not playing, so that's a big deal. I think this

(32:29):
is one where the Packers keep it within reach. And
the cornerback you are speaking of, courtesy of a memorabilia
shop is Bryce Callahan, who claimed that he has an
ankle issue and will keep him out. Um I fell.
I felt for the Packers a couple of weeks ago,
and um, I don't know if it was the Cardinals game.

(32:50):
If it was, I don't remember what game it was,
but it just it occurred to me. I think it
was Cardinals game where I thought, you know, I said, oh, yeah,
they're gonna win out and they're gonna win the division.
I mean I didn't mentally, I yeah, I came to
realize with that Cardinals front, with Chandler Jones specifically, UM
that oh yeah, that's right. The Packers aren't good. That's
just that's that's what reality. Well, they had like three
old linemen out last week and like to the week

(33:11):
like they're they're when you're when you're missing your old line,
it's really difficult. Yeah, so I'm my my main problem. Look,
I I said it two weeks ago, and I got
a lot of people at me. UM for my Chase
Daniel comment, I still stand by it. I think they're
a better team with Chase Daniel quarterback. UM, I do
not buy Mitch Drabsky. I just don't. We're taking your
south side card back. You heard what had collins Worth

(33:33):
was saying it on the broadcast. He was talking about
how but he's not from the South, He's not like
a south Sider now he's not. He pointed out exactly
what I said. Naggie doesn't trust them. He gives him
one read and he can't even can't even navigate that.
She's throwing three interceptions on that. Um. So I'm anxious.
I'm anxious to see what they do with Mitch this week,

(33:54):
if they cut it loose a little bit, because again
I said it two weeks ago, that six touchdown game
was that's same route the whole game. It was a
wheel route that the defense never adjusted to. So, uh,
I tend to lean your direction. But man, the Packers
are bad and that Bears front can really get after

(34:15):
Aaron Rodgers, and I think he's just gonna be like, man,
I want no part of this, but I just like
think about it. Aaron Rodgers, this is the game. I
think he like prepped for, right, I think this is
the like. Oh, he loves destroying the Bears. His favorite
thing in the world is let me ruin things for
the Bears. So yes, it would not surprise me if
this like kicked off them losing the last three games
of the season. They finished nine and seven and somehow

(34:37):
the Vikings win the division. And it's something weird like that, right,
all right to uh to the Colts at Cowboys, something
we kind of alluded to with the Eric Ebron conversation.
The Colts favorite by three, got the Boys? Yeah, Colts
win in fifty. This is this is in Indianapolis. I
said that wrong, it is it's Cowboys at Colts. Yeah, correct,
Cowboys at Colts. So um, I have Colts twenty three

(35:01):
and the Cowboys winning by less than a field goal
and sixty one seven percent of the simulations. So look,
cowboys a line. It is a big deal when their
alignment are not. Okay, you saw the difference when Zack
Martin got hurt. You saw you see what happens when
that is a big problem and the Colts have an
underrated defense. They have there's a lot of good things

(35:24):
about their defense, but they're really good. Like in the
same way you think about the linebackers for the Cowboys
being able to slow down and stop the run for
the Colt you should also think about the Colts Darius
Slander and fifty three being able to stop Ezekiel or
at least limit zekielle. I think Ezekiel have a good game,
don't get me wrong, but it's not it's not a
It's not a good matchup for him at all. So

(35:46):
I think their their defense is sneaky good. To me,
it's just a quarterback game. Um, I really think that
it'll be. I'm with you. It's tight and ultimately, Andrew
luck is just monumentally better than Dak Prescott, and I
suspect you'll do more than that can do. And as
you said, the Colts defense will likely be able to
keep I think they'll force it to be a one

(36:07):
dimensional game. They'll stacks. It's easy to say that, right, Oh,
they'll just stack the box against you can force them
to beat you with the past, and that's what he's
been doing with a Mari Cooper, which is why the
guy had two freaking yards and three touchdowns against an
Eagle secondary that was again starting their sixth and seventh
cornerbacks on the season, and that's not the case for
the Colts. They play solid defense. Um, and I suspect

(36:28):
it will look a lot like I think it looks
a lot like the Houston game looked. Um, it's just
kind of the way I figured this one. You know,
that's what you do. They have the tight ends to
take on those linebackers. They're really good. But when you
have those tight ends that can just kind of run
right up those seams in the middle of the field,
I think that's how you go after them, along with
a strong running game. Just run right at it and
uh use power. Two things here. I've been obsessed with
first down this week. Just it's just a big deal.

(36:50):
So past four games, Indianapolis defense is allowing only three
point six six yards per play now yards per rush,
yards per play on first down. That's the best in
the NFL. It's a big deal. And then the and
then Bill pulled a really great stat from next Gen
for me about blitzing. What did you do? Bill? Um?
So Indianapolis. This is an interesting one in favor of Indianapolis.

(37:11):
Right if if Andrew Luck gets going in the Cowboys
decide to blitz, which they don't do very often. Andrew
luck is actually really good versus the blitz. The seventh
highest passer rating versus the blitz hundred and six passer
rating if you're keeping track. But that's an interesting So
if if their pressure the way the Cowboys beat you,
they don't need to bring the house right. If there

(37:31):
for some reason they start having to do that, it's
not gonna work because a lot can get past it.
So that's that's just a positive and direction of him. Um,
I'm with you, although I think I think the coltmand
by more than three, okay, So I'd like that for
the chaos of the playoffs. I would like that for
the like because the Cowboys are pretty much like sign

(37:52):
Seal delivered. So if Indianapolis wins, then we get a
little of chaos in the a f C. And I'm
like chaos. Raiders at Bengals. Bengals favored by three. You
like the Raiders but barely but not really. This is
like this looks like I'm looking at your percentages. This
looks like a stay away. Uh yeah, So Bengals winning

(38:12):
of the simulations the most likely score, meaning the Raiders
don't win by three, and then I ran that fifty
point five percent of the simulations. So this one's interesting
because no one's playing for anything, so that's always hard,
right when you're when everyone's out. Joe Mixon seemed to
be in a good spot. Yeah, freaking phenomenal. They should
have given him the ball more than they gave it

(38:34):
to him. He's just so big and strong. That's why
I think the Bengals win this one. And I like
Jeff Driscoll man, that dude. I like Jeff Drisko too.
It's not about that's like my sleeper fantasy play this week.
If you've got a quarterback that's got a bad matchup,
I go ahead and pick up Driscoll because, man, does
Josh Allen? Are you already? Is Josh Allen already factored?
Is he not a sleeper? Because I would probably I

(38:55):
think people picked him up. I'm metching that. Last week.
I was like, this guy, this is the best running
quarterback in the NFL, right now, better than Cam. That
dude uses his legs and he uses them a lot, right,
I would do Josh and running out. But I'm with
you though, I think driss Look I don't think this
is going to be a great game. It's the Paul Gun,
the revenge game, his old team, right, Yeah, that's exactly what.
It's the old Paul Gun, the revenge game. I can

(39:17):
see it. I mean, look, like I said before, how
many playmakers can you lose before? It's just too hard
to predict who wins the game? Right, You've lost a J.
Green's J Green to be effective. He's struggled, yes, yes,
but you know what, he runs the same route. He
just runs that quick slant in down the seam and
he's able to use his big body to shield, you know,

(39:37):
the corner if he gets on his back hip. And
that's what he was doing against the Chargers when I
was watching film. That's what he was doing all the
game prior that AJ was out. So the Raiders are bad.
I know they beat the Steelers, but man, that is
not a good team. And with that Bengals front, um,
I think I'm gonna I think I'm gonna depart from
you here, departing six percent. The simulations, huge risk back

(40:02):
against someone who's coming off a thirteen and three week
against the number of cars. Kind of my heart is
kind of with you. But whatever. Yeah, Cards at Falcons
another wonderful contest we have in week fourteen Falcons by eight,
and I should say fifteen fifteen Falcons uh favored by
eight and a half at home against a Cardinals team
that again was one half of the worst football contest

(40:24):
in the NFL. Actually, I don't know, maybe the Jaguars
versus Colts was worse. Yeah, that was pretty boring. Falcons
win in in sixty nine percent of the simulations um
the most likely score eighteen, which means which is less
than eight and a half. So it's but it's about
fifty point seven percent of the time that the Cardinals
win by less than eight and a half. So that's

(40:46):
not that great. But the reason for that is because
Atlanta's defense is allowing a fifty percent conversion ry in
their past four that's a lot on third down. So
you know, Like when when I asked one of my
favorite scouts, like, what do you have to say about
the foul Kins defense? Right? I guess they're small, they're soft,
and they're predictable. I was like, okay, okay, it's like okay,

(41:06):
and he goes, but the Cards are gonna lose because
all they have is Chandler Jones and Chandler Jones is
great and now that Candic is out, just it's just
come on a little bit. Yeah. Um, I'm just like,
I got nothing. I'd stay away from this one. It's
those two teams are so beat up, and what I
saw from the Cardinals, it's so hard for me to
imagine them not losing by a hundred um. But but

(41:29):
I don't know, like this is a defense. I don't know.
There there's again the model hates it too. Yeah, So
then we'll move on to Dolphins advice. That a very
interesting contest, Vikings by seven, and you like the Dolphins
to to take care of that. Yeah, So I have
the Vikings winning in seventy one percent of the simulations.

(41:49):
That's pretty convincing. But the score. I have Vikings seven
Dolphins one. That's six. So the Dolphins win by what
our don't lose by less than seven. That's a lot
of negatives in that speech. In sixty one eight percent
of the simulations, Tan Hill has been playing pretty well Vikings.
Obviously they fired their offensive coordinator. It would seem that

(42:13):
Kevin Stefanski's mandate he's been there forever, is to run
the ball, and of course you can run the ball
against the Dolphins. That's part of the reason why it's
kind of a kind of a sleepier difference in in
in point total is because I think it's going to
chew up more possessions. I think that it keeps it
a little bit closer to because the Dolphins have been

(42:35):
able to pass against teams. Yeah, there's some good people
to target on that team too. I just this's Vikings defense,
just mut. I mean, look, yeah, they lost a game
to Seattle. That defense did everything they possibly couldn't know,
the defense played well, for sure. So I think about
that defense against that Miami offense and I say, okay,
I'm taking the Vikings defense. That's what I'm doing. So

(42:56):
I guess I'm pushing back on you again. You know what,
we push back up. Great, you're so well for me
so far. I want to talk about that one fourth
and goal for a second because I get mad when
people blame analytics for things that aren't analytics fault. Oh
they shouldn't have gone for it's six. Oh it's still
one possession, all right, I digress. It is your decision, then,
you know what I mean, pick the field goals it's
a field goal game. Why are you going for touchdowns?

(43:17):
It's field goal game. Just go for the damn field goal.
You would have tied the game up. I just think
the number of possessions you're getting is so low, Like
if you if you normally get ten or eleven possessions
in a game, and in this game, you're you're kind
of tracking for like eight, Like what I don't know,
but everyone's like, oh, it's I heard some guy on
some other network with horrible veneers. Tell try to tell

(43:39):
a story about the colts um. You know what veneers are?
And I have the cap Teeth watch I got. It
started with Baron Davis back in the day when I
got a great one for you, the CLI. Do you
know who I'm talking about? The worst, the worst veneers
I've seen. Don't say veneers, just say cap teeth. That
way people know what you're talking capped teeth. Who's got

(44:01):
the worst cat team? Rex? Ryan by far? Yeah, they're
pretty bad. They're horrible, They're the wrong color, the wrong size.
Come on, get your teeth. There's there's a lot of
them out there though, And I'm not going to mention names,
but I did. He went on an attack against analytics
and him and Matt Hasselbeck and he was talking about
and they had this graphics like the analytics say dot
dot go for it. I was like, no, they don't,

(44:23):
like you don't know what it was. It just was
like they kept using the word incorrectly. They like, the
analytics say go for it, the analytics say this, the
analytics say this, and then talking about turn it off
cats and caps. I feel like, I feel like analytics
is like my baby, and if you want to mess
with my baby, I'm going to listen to it and
then I'm gonna make funny or even ears because I

(44:45):
don't know if you should trust anything that comes out
of those veneers. I'm with you just because you've got
perfect teeth and great feet. Apparently I also have great feet.
Look what you did there? What you did there? Kidding?
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what we call the stray dogs. Cynthia, m hm, you're
doing that. Next time, stray dogs, you take on the
exactly who should be reading that exactly? Lions and Bills.

(46:13):
The Bills are favored by two and a half, and you,
like your Lion have to take care of the Buffaloes,
take care of it by fifty three point five percent
of the simulations. It's overwhelming. Um, I have a line.
I think okay, Bills eight one eight red zone touchdown
percentage over the past four that's second worst. You already

(46:36):
heard the first worst. Who's playing is Leshawn McCoy playing.
I don't know, is there kicker playing? I'm not sure.
How about for a trike? Carry on Johnson, He's well,
we know thegnsaw is not. I'm taking the Bills. Here's
here's one reason why Okay, Lions defense fourth views rushing
arts allowed per game since snacks, which is hilarious. I mean,
they were terrible against the run, terrible, but that's not

(47:00):
including the eleventh man that you got to account for.
Josh Allen is gonna use those legs. He's gonna use
those legs to get himself another hundred yard contest and
win this game. Circle freaking wagons. Look, I actually like
prefer people who are members of Bill'smabia to like most
linespan because we're also like I love the Bills. I

(47:23):
love that. I love the wings, I love everything about them.
So I was kind of I was expecting the lines
to lose in this one, but I think it's the
McCoy factor. It's there's a lot and the Bill's defense
is good. I was confused, but yeah, I've been crapping
out it all a year. I don't know. I still
can't figure it out. But hey, I'm dumb. No, it's
you're the smart one here. I'm just going Josh Allen legs,

(47:44):
that's what they should have been doing. My heart. You
don't want to put your guy out. I mean, that's
here's the thing about Josh Allen running And I know
I've seen I saw some of this. I think it
was our friend Buck. You put this out there about
Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen and why does one guy
be asked to be you know, and I can't speak
to you know. I I understand the frustration there, and
I get it. The difference is when you look at

(48:05):
the way Russell Wilson is built, when you look at
the way Josh Allen has built Ben Roethlisberger is built.
Those guys are thick. They can and and I've never
seen someone deflect contact like Russell Wilson. Lamar Jackson's just
he's not built. He's built like a track athlete. The
idea of him running around out there is a quarterback
taking shots is got to be terrifying, has to be
terrifying for the Baltimore Ravens. For Alan, it's like, hey, dude,

(48:28):
someone tries to hit you, they're gonna get hurt because
you're freaking as big as a tree. And he's pretty
good at deflecting contact. Um So, I think that's why
the bills, you know, and some are like, oh, you
can't let Lamar Jackson run for a hundred yards, but
everyone's like, hey, let Josh Allen run for two hundred yards. Yeah,
because look at him. He's huge and he's loaning his shoulder,
and do you want your quarterback doing that? Probably not,

(48:50):
But for him, the way he's able to use his
body and the way he's able to run and and
shed blockers and not take those direct hits, I think
that's what you're gonna probably see you from him a lot.
I think they're totally comfortable in those designed runs and
it works, man, because you see that dude coming at
you and it's hard for linebackers to bring him down. Yeah.
The only factor here that's a little bit of an

(49:11):
X factor is the fact that, wow, that was a
lot of words. Fact in a row. Um, this coach,
Matt Patricia has been scheme against the Bills forever, So
this one is a Josh Allen Bills. Yeah, but I
think I think he kind of knows their old line.
I think he kind of knows. I think he knows
their pressure points. So that's an X factor. There's just

(49:33):
a lot of history there, So yes, adding a special player,
and I'm with you, I think Josh Allen running is
really special. But I think that the rest of it
is very un tricky for for Matt Patricia. So well,
I know we won't be surprised by anything. That's something
I'm sure no one ever tightens. He's never surprised tightens

(49:54):
A Giant's Giants favored by two and a half, you like,
went out right, I was a price by that Titans
three point three zone. Of those simulations, I have Titans, Um,
I have them winning by at least two and a half,
and simulation it's not the most certain thing in the model.

(50:15):
Do you think it's a higher scoring game than maybe
other people do. But you gotta look into a little
bit of like what maybe our recency biases informing this.
We did see the Giants cream. I know you love
when I say that cream. That cream. It's hilarious. Gives
me back to elementary school? Is that on TV? And
he like jumped, like, you can't fight that guy, You're

(50:35):
gonna get cream. Watch this now you're right, I got creamed.
Stupid story of my life. Okay, So it's it's really
the alright, so you have recency bias. Giants destroyed Mark Sanchez,

(50:56):
Josh Johnson and the Redskins, and you think that's leading
to this number being where it is. I do think
the Giants defense, so I mean, they've allowed the lowest
third down conversion over the past four weeks. But by
the way, the Titans have allowed the second lowest third
down conversion over the past four weeks. Unfortunately for the Titans,
they lost Jack Conklin their right tackle and John new
Smith there five millionth tight end. They both went on
I R today. Um. But if you're thinking, okay, both

(51:19):
of these defenses are going to bring pressure. The Giants
have the highest pressure rate in the NFL since Week twelve.
Thank you next Gen for that and mark Marcus Mariota
highest passer rating under pressure this whole season. So it
kind of is like, all right, if both of these
defenses are dominant, where's the whole and and for me,
especially if Fodel Beckham is potentially question more or not playing,

(51:39):
it really swings things in favor of the Titans. And
I have a hard time believe in the Giants are
gonna win this game. I'm not crazy about the Titans,
but you know what, They've been in close games all year,
you know they I'm not crazy about Marcus Mariota. The
Giants I think have the benefit of man. Then I
started thinking about the stake one factor and just how
good stake one's gonna have a sick game. But I
don't know any else. By the way, and fun thing

(52:00):
the Titans defense there, they have the second lowest yards
after catch that result in a touchdown our first down.
Very interesting to me. It's a solid team. It's a
very sol There's nothing there's no there's no glitz. It's
just you know the old B S football term. Hey,
so punch the clock, get your lunch pail, going to

(52:21):
work to kind of team lunch pail. Get your lunch pail.
Punch the clock. This team's ready to go to work.
You know what else? You know where else? Do you
have a lunch pail in this next game? Brown's Elementary School? Yeah,
Cleveland Browns still remember mine. I don't even know if
I had one. Did you have a lunch pail? I
think so, my mom, isn't it? Yeah? But it wasn't
like a pail. It was like soft and weird. It

(52:44):
was weird. Yeah. I think I used to do paper bags.
I think I had brown paper bags. But I remember
having a lunch pail once. Remember having a Star Wars
lunch pail the Death Star on it. It It was awesome,
all right. Brown's and Broncos um both teams coming off
a lost Broncos bad loss to the forty Niners. That's
a Saturday game, Broncos favored by three at home, as
they should be. But you like the Browns to win

(53:06):
the game. You're Dublin. You took the Browns last week
to win as a dog. You got that right against
the Panthers, and you're doing it again. Ye, Browns win
the simulation three. They win outright for me and they
win by three and almost six of the simulations. Okay,
so remember we said how many playmakers can you lose
before it changes your team? Well, Emmanuel Sanders gone, Chris

(53:26):
Harris Jr. Gone. You saw a big difference last game.
This one doesn't need to be so crazy because I
actually think both running backs in this game are good,
Philip Lindsay and Nick Chubb. But ultimately, even with Bradley Chubb,
who's having a really great pass rusturs maybe the best
Brookie pass rush of season we've seen, I still think
the Browns defense has the advantage in this one, given

(53:47):
the lack of options on offense. Yeah, I'm with you.
I think I think Myles Garrett heats up case keenum Um,
who's not been good this year. So I'm I'm with you.
And without Chris Harris, that's it's a tough one. It's
really hard. I think. I'm with you. Wow, I think
I just it's hard for me to lunch pail and
all exactly. Nick Chub has been good, But does Philip

(54:10):
Lindsay just run right at him? Yes he does, but
so does Nick Chubb. On the art so does on
the other side. I'll take the brocos. I'll take the brocos,
all right, confidence, let's go. All right, I'm doing no
three for three last weeks, right, I'm only doing like
something I'm not gonna do like who wins just one

(54:31):
on one because there's a ton of those this week,
so those will be boring. So I'm gonna go like
with the number included, got it? Okay? So I'm thinking
Seattle it's gonna win by more than five and a half.
I have that the Rams win by more than nine.
That's that's huge and huge, know I hate it. And

(54:54):
then Baltimore wins by more than eight. Okay, Baltimore three
favorites makes me a little nervous. It makes me a
little nervous. I'll be honest. I like putting those three.
I think that's spicy, and I'm putting them in a
jar and I'm shaking them up together. You get there
with me. If you wanted to switch one out, you

(55:14):
could do. If you wanted to switch one out and
still be like in a good spot for that, then
I might say, like a lot of points, let's go
for a lot of points in Detroit. And he's all
right in uh Buffalo, that's right. We told you confidence picks.
What's what the people did? They said, give me three.
I didn't pick who's going to be the outright winner,

(55:35):
because those are all on the pod. You can hear it.
There's plenty of them, over seventy in this one. So
I did all of them with a side because we
take sides here. Yes, And as an aside, let's bring
in our friend Bill, because it's time for playoff projections.
Hello Bill, going on money, how you doing it? There
we go, let's get into it. Bill. Hello Bill. So
everybody always tells me that's the sign Feld. It's like, no,

(55:57):
it's the scream. Hello Sydney. That's what it is. Scream. Yeah,
everybody thinks it's Newman, Hello Newman. No, but hello Sydney.
I love that. I think that was lip Shriber. We
did that, Shriver. Yeah, it's so good. All right, Here
we go NFC playoff projections. Bill, So the Rams and

(56:17):
Saints have already clinched. Cynthia has them in the one
in two spots, The three, four and five in the
NFC seemed pretty set at this point, Bears, Cowboys, Seahawks
right now, she still has the vikings getting to the
playoffs with that six seed and buying an overwhelming margin
at eight one point seven percent compared to Philadelphia just

(56:37):
over thirteen in Carolina at just under ten percent, as
they've lost five in a row. And I think you
can't push back on any of that. I think, and
I want to ask Cynthia on this, the reason the
Vikings are the six is really less about Minnesota and
more about the three teams that are six and seven
and chasing them. Correct, it is the Vikings have an

(56:58):
easier path than the those who again rams this week.
So there's one right there, and then Carolina who gets
the Saints not once but twice, and then the Package
get the Bears. So it's less about it's less about
loving the Vikings, right the model loving the Vikings, and
it's more about unfortunate matchups for the other three that
are chasing and then the most for home field advantage

(57:20):
she currently has above the Saints right now, and I
think that's because she has a greater opportunity for Saints
lost based on the schedule they do two games against.
I mean, they haven't played the Panthers once. I understand
they have overwhelming chance to win both of those, but
if you look at their schedule and then you look
at you put that up against I'm gonna pull up

(57:42):
right here the Rams schedule and they at the Cards, Niners,
and Eagles this week. So there's there. Yeah, I'm with you,
Cards and Niners, and it's easier to you know, a
division opponent out of two out of three weeks. That's tough,
no matter how much. Look, they're all NFL players, Every
roster is talented. And when you gotta play the same
team twice in three team exactly exactly that, I'm with you,

(58:06):
that's tough. So that makes more sense. I still think
the Saints went out plus the Steelers in with sixteen
who could be fighting for their playoff lives, so all
three of those games could be difficult. That makes sense.
I get. I get no problem with that. So AFC,
I think is a little more. The AC is where
the fun is there, we go, let's have some fun.
So the Chiefs have clinched. She has the Patriots currently

(58:26):
projected in number two spot at to make the playoffs,
Texans to stay at three seven percent in the playoffs,
and then she has Baltimore projected to overtake Pittsburgh and
earned the four seed money how do you feel about that?
I think it goes back to the conversation we had
about the Steelers. Do you think they're right or not?

(58:48):
If you think they're right, if you think they can
get if they you think Okay, they lost their three games.
They always lose a weird road game. What they did
against the Chargers was out of character for them because
they had never lost a game at home and their
history after being up by sixteen in the second half
that they were two and one, uh in those kind
of contests, So you could argue that that was flukey

(59:10):
and if they get right, it wouldn't surprise me. If
they want out, it totally would not surprise me. Beat
the Patriots, beat the Saints because they're that good. Um,
So I think I think you have the teams. You
have to admit Patriots and Saints are harder Patriots Saints,
and then with Bengals, then Bucks, Chargers, which are hard

(59:31):
and Brown's right, I do think the Ravens are more likely.
Here's what I do know about that. If I'm the
Texans and the Ravens, I'm like, man, what the heck
did we do to get these wild card teams? Really?
We win the Division and we got to play the
Chargers and the Steelers and or the Steelers in the
wild card round. Like, to me, that's that's the bigger
story there. Um, but yeah, I think I think it

(59:53):
looks right. The Colts. The Colts remind me they got
the Cowboys this week. Um, I'm just and yeah, I
gotta remember what that is because I know I believe
they get at home against the Giants and then on
the road versus the Titans. That's what it is. Yeah, boy,
that's a tough one. How close is that? You see?

(01:00:13):
That's really close. You got the point five and then
the Steelers at fifty five point nine, and it's really
so if you look at it and then you look
at the schedule, you're like, well, but I don't know.
I like chaos. I'm a big fan of chaos. So
but see, the Steelers only have to go too and one,
they only have to win one of those big games
if we assume they're going you know, if if we're
going to give but then they go and drop a

(01:00:36):
game like the Raiders and you know, and and the
Broncos for that matter, were Ben throws for like five
yards and it's but so if you're going to give
them the Bengals game, then, really, unless you believe the
cults are gonna win out. And if you do believe
the cult are gonna win out, then they're gonna they're
gonna take the Steelers spot anyway, because they'll have ten wins,
right or no, the Steelers can still get ten wins,

(01:00:57):
that's right, they would be ten five and one of the
the Colts will be ten and six and Steelers would
get it. So money, which team is more likely to
win this week? The Steelers against the Patriots or the
Colts against the Cowboys. Man, that's tough. I think I'd
go Colts, just because the Patriots have the Steelers number, right,
I mean, they just do. It's embarrassing how many times

(01:01:18):
they've just slapped that team around despite having inferior talent um.
So yeah, I mean, so I say that. So the
coltsal slide in there next week. So then the Steelers
travel to New Orleans, which is different getting Drew Brees
outside in Pittsburgh in December than it is go into
that Superdome on that fast track, right, and both teams

(01:01:39):
are on the fast track, and they got track athletes
on the outside too. So I think that becomes a shootout.
See it close. See why these numbers are so close.
That's why it's fifty six to fifty exactly to fifty
and a half. Yeah, I mean, by the way, you
know that, I think what you what you got to
look at with Tennessee as well, is that Colts game

(01:02:00):
and that Coults games at home for the Titans. I
mean they of all the teams, they can go ten
and six. They've got the easiest rope because they're at
the Giants and then they get the Redskins in the
Colts at home. They just need help. So that's yeah.
So the culture in the eights or excuse me, the
Titans are in the eight spot right now with the
thirty one percent chance of making the playoffs and the
Dolphins in the nine spot at twenty and that percentage

(01:02:25):
at twenty point three is much different than if the
Kenyan Drake touchdown to end the game didn't have the
last year last year. Last week, the Dolphins were tent
with eleven point one percent playoff situation. They were slated
to be big losers against not big, but like they
had a big, overwhelming chance to lose in those simulations

(01:02:46):
that one play changed them from having a one point
nine percent playoff situation to a twenty three I still
don't think they make it because I mean, look I'll
put it. I'm just saying. I'm just saying, wins a
huge We've got the Steelers, the Colts, and the Titans.
If you have to pick one who wins out? Is

(01:03:07):
it the Titans? Who do I want to win out?
Or who? Understanding who you're forced to pick right now
because one of these teams I think will end up
coming out to get the ten and six. I think
the Colts, like, this is my gut. Obviously you have
my math, but my gut is like there's something special
about the Coals. I also Dallas Giants back to back
at home and then at Tennessee. I just I just
think that. I think the losing people. I don't know,

(01:03:29):
I like their online. I just I mean, at this point,
Miami has a pretty favorable schedule. They traveling, They go
to Minnesota, who just got rid of their offensive coordinator
this morning, so now you're dealing with a new offense
and change there, and you see they're just gonna be run.
But Ryan Tannehill has to play that defense. Yeah, that
defense is targetable in the past game, I don't think

(01:03:53):
it's a great look. The Dolphins are operating on a
support cast, right, So they also have a surprise factor,
Like is Bryce Butler going to catch a touchdown against
Trey Waynes? I think so? Right, Like weird stuff like
Bolden going to score two touchdowns in three touches? Sure?
Why not? Right? Like, so they have the surprise factor
as well. So it's it's not like I'm not saying

(01:04:16):
that that. Look, you heard my model, you heard the math.
But if the Dolphins somehow luck their way into tricking
the Vikings, then they finished with the Jaguars and the
Bills and the Bills. Yeah, I'm gonna go Colts. I'm
looking at it now, and I think I'm with you.
They get Cowboys, and they got that strong old line.

(01:04:37):
They got Andrew Luck. He's the best player. He's better
than big Ben. He's better than and don't I want
to see what Frank He's better than big Ben right
now in this very moment. He's having a better season. Um, yeah,
I think I'm going Colts. Okay, alright's going Dolphins. I'm
going Is that right, Bill? You're going Dolphins. I think
ultimately the Ravens and the Steelers make the playoffs. But

(01:04:59):
if take one of the Colts, Titans, and Dolphins, I'll
go ahead and take the Dolphins. I want to see it.
I want to see you McDaniels versus Frank Reich. Oh yeah,
And so like maybe I'm biased by that, but again
it's not biased in my actual model. It's only biased
in sitting here being like, come on, get the improbable win,
you know what I mean, Like I want that to happen, right, See,

(01:05:23):
that's why we said the a f C is much
more interesting, good stuff, and it'll all change next week.
Charters have to play. The Chiefs want change. Are playing
the Cowboys. Yeah, maybe we get an upset. Maybe maybe
Philadelphia upsets the Rams and they really mix things up,
things get crazy. Or the Panthers upset the because that
would put both those teams at seven and seven and

(01:05:45):
threaten the Vikings. Maybe, and hey, Bill thinks the Dolphins
are gonna beat the Vikings. So I love it, right,
don't get upset. Absolutely, let's go. There, we go, Let's go.
There's no greater momentum than that Kenyan Drake play and
the Vikings are at a low point right now, so
they made T shirts for God's sakes, alright, t shirts

(01:06:05):
change everything they do. Week fifteen, by the way, yeah, like,
how about how about you make that T shirt? You
buy it, you start walking around town, and then they
lose to the Vikings and it's like, okay, we're not
gonna make the playoffs? Great, what am I gonna do
with this shirt? Stupid? You know, they make T shirts
for like everything, though, so it's not that everything. It's
never a good sign. It's never a good sign as
a franchise. When you're celebrating an individual regular season win,

(01:06:27):
it's like, it's just a ridiculous I mean, completely ridiculous,
although I don't know, I guess if you want to
chronicle it. They hate the Patriots and they always beat
them down in Miami, so it's kind of fun. Um
all right, that's it Week fifteen. Big thank you to everybody, Shoppy,
thank you. Can you never get any thank you? And
you crushed it. You're traveling and you have to go
sit inside outside but still and you did a million

(01:06:47):
things too, So thank you. Speaking of Mr Inside and
Mr Outside army, maybe this past week, um, hey, big
Thank you to Bill, to Cynthia, to Mark Brady Shoppy,
all of yous who download, list and streams share on
so she'll media. We always appreciate it. Do yourself a favor, though,
Please be sure to keep an eye on Cynthia's Twitter
feed at C Freeland because we are doing this early

(01:07:07):
because I have to travel uh to Kansas City for
the Thursday night between the Chargers and the Chiefs, so
we had to do this on Tuesday night. Things will
change as the injury picture becomes more and more clear,
um so on the Twitter she will update things in
case some numbers change, right, ye, all right, thanks everybody.
We'll return next week at our regularly scheduled time, which

(01:07:29):
on podcast really doesn't matter because you're all listening to
it on demandation great