Game Theory and Money: Week 16 Predictions and Playoff Projections

Cynthia Frelund is coming off a week where she correctly picked 10 winners! She ran 10-thousand simulations on every week 16 game, so who does she have coming out on top in Steelers-Saints? Ravens-Chargers? Chiefs-Seahawks? The answers are a click away.

Steelers-Saints (2:40). Buccaneers-Cowboys (8:15). Ravens-Chargers (10:30). Bills-Patriots (14:45). Jaguars-Dolphins (19:40). Bears-49ers (22:00). Broncos-Raiders (24:10). Falcons-Panthers (26:10). FANTASY FUTURES (27:00). THE DOGS (30:30). Chiefs-Seahawks (30:40). Bengals-Browns (36:40). Vikings-Lions (41:00). Giants-Colts (43:20). Rams-Cardinals (46:30). Redskins-Titans (48:35). Texans-Eagles (50:30). CONFIDENCE PICKS (51:50). PLAYOFF PROJECTIONS (55:00).

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:05):
Well, we only got two weeks of the regular season left.
It's game theory and money. Cynthia Freelander man Bill Smith
is with us as well, along for the ride. Not
only are we going to work our way through the
entire slate of games and the ten thousand simulations that
Cynthia has run for each, but we have our playoff predictors,
and certainly a handful of teams have already locked ourselves
into place themselves into place, but we do have some

(00:27):
very interesting percentages that we're going to share with you
in a little bit. You know, I don't like to
grab the ass here, Cynthia. We like to get started
right away. So what's your quick pick? Let's go something big.
What do we got by a touchdown? Okay, take it
works for me. That's a good way to start with
a touchdown? How about that? More'll get into the details
of that. By more than a touchdown, Someone's called that

(00:49):
a hook. But what I'm saying, Harris uh as we
look at the recap of week fifteen, look last week, great,
thirteen and three. Um, when you bring in the numbers
this week, yeah, it happens five, ten and one, straight
up up, a sixth straight up. Zero two and one
on confidence. And I put myself for that. I I

(01:09):
pressured you into making picks that you didn't want. Okay,
it happens. Look, I can be very convincing, obviously I would.
You could probably convince me you are a Gan. It's
weird because I'm like looking at you the opposite way. Now,
it's very straight. I know it's not ideal whatever. For sure,
I do want to point out they'll look at this there,
look at that. Oh the cheese It Bowl? Where my

(01:30):
cheese at Bowl? All about the cheese It Bowl? All right,
let's go playing cheese Bowl's who's playing in the cheese
at Bowl? Kidding me? Cal's playing in the cheese at Bowl? Man,
Let's go bears. Fun fact two schools to schools with
the most players representing the Pro Bowl, Cal, and what's
the other one? Hold on, hold on, Cal, because that

(01:52):
I mean I I wasn't gonna look. I'll give you
the one, but there's another one. They're tied with five
players a piece, five players a piece in the hold on,
hold on, I'm working through it. No, no, uh not yeah,
it's support state. No, but it is a state. L
s U Louisiana, Louisiana State. Okails you there you go.

(02:13):
I'm thinking I was just like, all right, Ramsey's in
Derwin's in its five straight to Yeah, I like it.
I like it. All right, We're ready now, cal uh Cal,
I think underrated when it comes to NFL players. Um,
people don't realize how many dudes Cal puts into the league.
But this is the the exact grabbing of the ask

(02:34):
that I said we would avoid before we got like it. No, no,
you had the great trivia. I decided to expound upon it,
which we didn't need to do. All right. Freeland's favorites,
Uh just like you? Uh, well you can I guess
dissect for them, or I should say, um, just like
you can figure from the title. Um, you like the
favorites here, So let's go Steelers at Saints. The Saints.

(02:56):
The number there are five and a half point favorites. Uh,
fifty three and a half is the key point total.
And you have what I have, the Saints winning in
fifty nine percent of the simulations. Oh okay, okay, get
behind that all right, Um, this score that's most likely
in my model thirty piano jazz. Yeah, I like the

(03:19):
loneous monk? Is that who that was? Is it aloneous monk? Shoppy?
He doesn't know. Someone else will tell us. I'm sure
there we go. Yeah great. Oh, by the way, I
have to say thank you to everyone who I put
out a question of extra things to add to the pod.
So any questions that they want specifically answers to, they're
peppered in the answers here. But thanks for answering people.
Keep doing that, We'll keep answering them. Why do you

(03:41):
like the Saints? I like the Saints because the Steelers defense,
their adjustments have been kind of slow, and the Steeler's
offense has that middle of the field presence that outweighs
the Steeler's ability to adjust their defense or inability to
just their defense. That makes sense, I think it does.
I think that that makes sense. Where'd you go? I
couldn't hear you fort my mic down because the dog

(04:03):
was barking because my oldest daughter was coming home. So
there was a big dog bark in the background, and
I thought I would adjust that and unfortunately, maybe that's
like a sign, maybe the Steelers are gonna win. That's
a great point, you know what, Skeeter the dog the dog,
the prophetic Skeeter the dog. I do want to point out, though,
we're off to a rough start for a couple of reasons. One,

(04:25):
I don't like seeing myself in that giant monitor behind
you look great in it. And two I don't like
Bill's body language. I feel like he's judging me, and
I don't like to be judged. And Bill's body language
right now suggests this guy is full of crap. And
I don't buy a word of it, and I don't
like it, and Bill Smith, I don't like it. I
need you to judge. You need to sit up a

(04:46):
little bit more straight. I'm gonna get all Matt Patricians,
and you gotta give me a smile every now and
then when I make a stupid joke. He's six ft seven,
it's just the tables short. I just I feel like
he's judging, and I don't like the eyes of judgment,
especially when I look sobericulous and that giant monitor with
my weird face hovering above the two of you. So
I'm off to a rough star. That's all I'm saying.
My apologies to the people listening. UM, this is a

(05:09):
tough one to figure out for me because the Saints
have played so poorly as of late, and this looked
like an offense that could not be sidetracked by anything,
Yet they have been sidetracked by everything. Mediocre defense is
going on the road playing at home. I absolutely love
that Steeler's front and I think you saw it, you know,
and I think you saw it in action against the Patriots,
and you've really seen it in action all season. Um,

(05:32):
that front seven that they have is so damn impressive
and based on how much Drew and company have struggled
as of late, especially with a left tackle, that's down
to me, that's why I see this is being real tight.
Uh like a field goal game. God helped Chris Boswell again,
but uh, I see this is being maybe a field
goal game just because of how good that that front

(05:54):
really with the front three, Uh, a lineman of the
Steelers have been able to affect pressure and allow those
line backtors just come flying off those edges. Well, you've
got to kind of say the same thing for the
Saints too, right, So really, both quarterbacks kind of have
similar attributes when you look at their use of quick passes,
meaning that's the way to escape pressure. So both of
them are kind of doing that, and that's why the

(06:16):
middle of the field, Tomorrio Davis specifically in the New
Orleans Saints player, he's kind of a difference maker against
the run. So him versus I don't want to I
don't want to speculate about James Conner versus Jalen I
don't care which one is playing. I think advantage tomorrow
Davis in that situation. Except the one thing here that
I'll give you the breeze against the Blitz over the
past three games has been really bad, like bad passer

(06:39):
rating like forty below forty, so whereas before it was
up over a hundreds, like hundred and twenty before it
at forty. So that's something to watch because you know
what the Steelers do. They know how to they know
how to get those like you know, start dick Lebo
Blitz going. They they'll bring you know, five, those three
up front and the two off the edge, and man,
they can get to you. And that's and they can

(07:00):
get to you with four. Heck, get to you with three,
my god, I mean, they are so effective up front.
So that's certainly a bit of a concern. Anything any
other nugget that's somebody did want me to answer. So ultimately,
one of the things that like the historical model speaks
to is that it's actually maybe kind of a good
thing that the Saints offense has stuttered a little bit
over the past few games, because when you look at

(07:21):
deep runs into playoffs, there have been for the most part,
you're not getting like the Patriots undefeated season, right, You're
getting spaces in the in the season where you're not
going to win back to back games consistently. You're going
to drop a few, and those adjustments are what really
changes things. So that's your ability, your ability to adapt,
your ability to game plan and change. And that's actually

(07:43):
why the Saints kind of have an advantage of this
one because it's there are a lot of indicators here
that say that we're going to see a good Saints offense,
So like a good Michael Thomas, a good offensive adversity
or diversity working, right. So that's that's what like if
you speak to the past and you look at there,
it's it's that's the difference. I like it. We already disagree.

(08:04):
You're taking you lad, I'm taking it and talking. He
wants happy Christmas, like lab exactly. He does, he's already
got a happy Christmas. My god, all the dog does
is sit around, eat, chase a ball. I don't know
anything about spoiling dogs. Nothing. Bring me a rope that
he pretends like he's tugging on, and the next thing
I know, he's biting my hand and laughing at me.
All right here, I love my dog, all right? Bucks

(08:26):
at Cowboys. Cowboys favored by seven key point total forty
six and a half. And this is a big one
for you. You've got cowboys, h I g yep, big. Well,
that's why he came with the quick pick covering the
seven and how many percentage of your simulation sixty seven
point three. They win by more than a touchdown. They
win in seventy of the model's outcomes overall, just just

(08:47):
win or or lost. They win in And for the
most part here it's it's really the you know, you see,
Zeke is the key, and we talk about it, and
it's true. And Zeke with Amari Cooper's presence, yes, he's
had better success with that. And really what it comes
down to, the biggest indicator here is Zeke's ability to
make people miss tackles and the fact that the Bucks

(09:08):
miss tackles top five ranking in that Cooper helps mean
you know that it's a more favorable situation for Zeke
to run into, so fewer stacks, boxes, more space for
him to work with. Those are just it's it's a
Zeke game. It's a big z game. I would say
every game for the Cowboys should be a Zeke game.
Well yeah, but I mean like their defense is great, right,

(09:28):
and the Bucks turned the ball over all the time,
So it's I mean, that's kind of the boring side
of it to me. It's like, how are they going
to get Zeke? Because we saw Zeke contained last game, right,
so it's like, how are we what are we going
to see from Zeke in this one? Thinks that's a
good you know fantasy nod there too. I think the
Cooper fantasy not two people were asking me about that one.
So both of them I think are fully playable. Obviously.

(09:50):
Point now, because Zeke was contained because the Cowboys were
shut out a big Hosan congratulations to Darius Leonard for Yeah,
he's on our proble, he's in my pet right, that's right.
I don't have bonuses to give out. They don't have
bonuses to give out like no five hundred thousand dollar
roster bonus. But I could probably I could. I could

(10:10):
maybe make you some cookies, you know, that might be
a nice runner up prize. I do believe he said
um that he plans on having forty tackles this week.
That is in response to his being snub that. I'm
not going to deny it. I think he can make
forty tackles. I believe he he has the ability to
do that. So maybe much like you see people feeding
a hot hand in basketball when they're making a run

(10:31):
of the record, getting a sixty or something, maybe all
the colts will just funnel the defense straight so we
can get his forty tackles and make his statement. Let's
do it. Start agreeing with me with the Cowboys? Are
you disagree? Ravens a Charger Saturday game on an FL network,
Mike Triko, Kurt Warner on the call, and that's gonna
be a great call. They're great at Yeah, they were

(10:51):
really good. I really enjoyed that call on Saturday. No
one does it better than you, buddy, But for TV,
Triko does it hundred million trillion. I believe you're man
fed by a hundred million trillion, so with the Google
uh times better. But um, ravens a Charger Saturday, Chargers
four and a half key point total forty four and
a half, one of the top offenses against the top

(11:13):
defense yards and points. You have what I have the
Chargers winning in sixty three percent of the simulation. So
that's just when the score I have is Chargers one.
So that's more than four and a half in fifty
four point six. So not super certain about that four
and a half, but the win is pretty convincing. Um. Look,

(11:33):
we're we're previewing this one on nfollow, Calm Twitter. We do.
There's a lot of previous for this one coming out
because it's a really great game. But what it comes
down to is, and you and I've actually be talking
about a Fantasy Live all week. It's like Lamar Jackson rushing.
That's kind of the X factor that's going to be
interesting to watch in this one. And the Chargers are
actually what ninth versus the run and fifth versus runs
of ten or more yards, So it's gonna be interesting

(11:55):
to see if Lamar Jackson can continue this historic pace
of not only how many times they call run but
also how many times he's rushing. How you know, if
you look at who he faced, it's like bottom ten
run run defenses in all of his wins. So it's
it's like, I think in a lot of those two
it's like bottom five. I mean it's like, I mean,

(12:15):
now you have a top ten, right. The thing about
the Ravens and I think one of the reasons why, um,
they're on this streak and some of the games are
tight and some of them are blowouts. It's like, you know,
just to kind of keep our college football theme going,
it's it's like you're playing Georgia Tech. You're playing air
Force this week. I mean they are running a read option,
running it over twice, you know what, you know what
limits that really great defensive ends and you got the

(12:39):
being the living hell out of the quarterback when he
decides to either keep it or hand it off. I mean,
that's the thing about that. That's why nobody ever was like, well,
why don't you run the read option in the NFL
y because the second the quarterback is has the potential
to be a runner, whether he hands it off or not. Specifically,
after he hands it off, you can still hit him.
And that is that is in the rules. So when

(12:59):
you just had to run that option, after that ball
is gone, you can still take a shot at that quarterback.
Uh and when you've got athletic ends like Bosa and Ingram.
I think that's where it's going to start for this
Charger team is if they are able to hit Lamar
Jackson either when he's running or after he hands it
off and gets John Harbot to say, Okay, we can't
keep doing that with this quarterback any longer. He's gonna

(13:20):
get hurt, right, and then the other the other because
they're susceptible to that sorry interrupting things. They are susceptible
to the quarterback run. They have been all season. Russell
Wilson got him a few times. Marcus Marioda got him
a few times. Just think that the Russell Wilson game.
When I went back and watched that and tried to
map it. There's a really big difference between the experience
level that Russell Wilson has in his ability and his
passer like the way he his characteristics as a passer,

(13:42):
how great of a passer he is Lamar Jackson has.
We don't know who he is as a quarterback yet, right,
He's the only played a few games, so that to me,
it's a hard You're right that he did scramble on them, absolutely,
but it's not I kind of think that's an unfair
comparison because Russell Wilson is one of the very best,
So it's just a it's just an unfair like, you know.

(14:03):
And and I think that's a good comparison because if
you look at the beginning of that game, Mahomes was
getting loose and he was able to outrun him. Mahomes
also has a his arm is just he does and
it doesn't get beating him. But what I'm saying is,
towards the end of that game, he stopped running because
they were they were pelting him and they were hitting
him pretty hard, and he was like, all right, I'm done.
A couple more possessions in the Chargers would have won
that game like a one, you know, like that. So

(14:25):
I don't know that it just scares me. I think
if they're smart, and I think the Ravens are very smart,
I think maybe you use the running back to run
a little bit more, just to kind of keep it, yeah,
a little bit more, because especially when you play action
and his accuracy is so bad. Um that you know,
that's and that's he's got to learn too. I mean,
you gotta give him some time. It's not like I
don't know. I'm not really like, I'm not willing to

(14:46):
say I know anything about him other than the fact
that he's rushed for a lot of yards so far.
You know, it's it's it's hard to know. That's dangerous living.
It's yeah, yeah, have we miss do we missing it?
I don't think so. All right, we're good. Bills Pats
Pats twelve and a half, big old number. It's a

(15:07):
big number. So I have the Patriots winning. In eight foot.
The most likely score that comes out is seventeen, which
happens to be Steve Mariucci's favorite score. He picks that
score for everything to so you know, and it's just
like he he just says it. So if you're ever
if you're ever like using him for anything, and he
says thirty one seventeen, just think like that's his default.

(15:29):
So if I guess I think your model's favorite score
is twenty, I think the model's favorite well, to be fair,
I think the model's favorite score something like numbers that
aren't blah blah like numbers that don't sound palatable for
me football, Yeah, super, although we do have some twenty

(15:50):
two this season, But so why the big number for
the Pats. So it really comes down to you. First
down defense again, we saw it we pointed out last
week and then we saw the first down like got
beat a lot by the by the Steelers on first
down especially, and their offense, their first down offense can
keep up with it. I think in this game that
Patriots are able to use their running backs creatively to

(16:10):
get in better first down situations. The model points to I.
The model says that it's almost equal Sony Michelle and
James White. So your guess is as good as mine
unless your name is Belichick to know exactly which one
that runs through. But both of them are instrumental and
keeping those manageable third downs, keeping there the Bills can
bring pressure than Tree. Davis White is good, Like there's

(16:31):
a lot of good pieces to this Bills defense, but
it's it's just not you what you saw creative, Like
look what you saw from Kenny Golladay last week with
the lines playing them there, you know, putting him in
the slot. They were really susceptible to slot receivers. So
it's it's going to be a lot of eleven. You're
gonna see pass catches from running backs, You're gonna see

(16:51):
slot receivers being successful, and it's just going to be
the key to the Patriots victory. So here's why I'm
taking the Bills. You're taking the Bills straight or you're
taking them with I'll take I'll take two and a half. Uh,
look at their losses thirty, you know what I mean?
Like that they're tight games because they it's it's a

(17:11):
Josh Allen is going to extend those drives. Yeah, And
I think so. I just don't think the Patriots are
the type of team especially I mean, I guess this
is one that's set up right for them to to
to route and get right. They just don't look that
good to me. I'm sorry, his team does not look
like they're they're very good. And I think, you know,
we've kind of been at least I've been sort of

(17:32):
leaning on the Bills a little bit, and I shouldn't
say ny, I've been kind of taking them on a
little bit for not having a whole lot of talent
and still trying to tear that thing down and rebuild it.
But to their credit, they're winning games that are tight,
and they're in every game, you know. I mean they
just won by one, they lost by four, they lost
by four, they won by three, they lost by seven,
they won by one, you know what I mean. It's
like every one of those games. And I think that
kind of signals Okay, it's a young team UM in

(17:56):
some parts, and it's a young quarterback, and they're doing
a pretty darn good job of standing games. And I
don't know if the Patriots are the type of team
UM personnel wise. I know Bill Belichick in top righty
or great, but personnel wise that can knock them off
by two touchdowns. See. I think this is the this
is the we gotta keep our first seed situation. We
got an we need or buy. So I think that

(18:19):
it comes down to when you see they don't and
when you see game planning from the Patriots in December
and you see something strange happened, like you know, like
losing to the Steelers isn't that strange. I didn't have
them winning by more than they were supposed to per
the magic numbers last week, right, So losing to the
Steelers wasn't completely crazy. But this is the situation where

(18:41):
they're like, all right, we we really need to make
sure we get that first week off, and we as
best we can need to make sure that we're giving
ourselves the best chance to get, you know, the road
to the super Bowl to come through Foxboro. So that's
the only reason the game planning, the structure. I think
people are looking at jobs. I think that this is
one of those things where you're to see the it's
almost time for Josh McDaniels to be the hottest, the

(19:02):
prettiest girl at the prom or the fake prom or whatever.
So he's got to show us something. And the fake
prom that's where he goes, right, and then he goes
and then he comes back and he takes a new
date and then whatever. It's crazy. But so in order
to uh to make sure I contradict myself in the
same segment, I do want to point out the last
two Patriot wins were by fourteen points each, the Jets

(19:23):
by fourteen and they but I'm gonna take the points.
I love it look. I like the Bills. I think
the Bills have something great going on. I think this
is ultimately a one of those things where Patriots coaches
are coaching for their job. Brian Flores needs to prove
he's the defensive coordinator they need. Josh McDaniels needs to,
you know, show Green Bay what they're possibly getting that.

(19:45):
I'll see what you did there, little coachingugget right there, alright,
gags at Dolphins. The game that everybody this one, everybody,
it's a It's the Battle of Florida. It's the battle.
Well what about what about Tampa Bay? They're just left out.
They're not playing another team in Florida. So this is

(20:05):
the This is the Florida the Florida Jack's Dolphins. Dolphins
favored by four and a half total and a half.
You've got what, the Dolphins winning in fifty seven point three.
The most likely scoresen kind of close to those weird
numbers that everyone loves so much. UM I would stay
like the weather is supposed to be quite interesting, potential
for storms, humidity. Um I don't see any wind, which

(20:28):
is is a big factor. But just keep an eye
on this one, so stay away from any magic numbers
that would potentially involve both teams. Um and this one
it boils down to the fact that, look, the Dolphins
are still in it. They're still They've got per My
models and like a five percent chance to make it
to the playoffs. These coaches are coaching jobs. Oh we'll
get to that, but you know there's they're still in it.

(20:50):
They're trying to figure it out and they have you
seen mused Kalen Boage. You've seen Brandon Bolden, You've seen
you know a lot of different tricks. You seen. You know,
Ryan Tannehill is trying to save his job. Like there's
a lot of people that are have something on the
line for this one. You saw the the Dolphins give
up in the first quarter two hundred yards of offense

(21:13):
to the Vikings last week, which was the most in
a single quarter for the entire season. I thought that
was kind of surprising given some of the things we've
seen from Kansas City or the Rams. But you saw
that happen. So you have some people who are pretty
bummed about what's been going on. And the biggest factor
you saw Zavian Howard practice this week. So this factors
in that Zavian Howard will be playing in that game,

(21:34):
meaning it just makes it better or a worse situation
to pass against the Dolphins. Um yeah, I got very
little to offer here, so I'll just have one win
since week four, and it was just a totally weird
who knows what the heck happened with Andrew Luck and
the Indianapolis Colts in week thirteen. Everything else has been

(21:54):
nothing short of a disaster. So I'll still just leave
that where it is. Pop with you. The Dolphin Bears
Niners Bears four total two and a half. You know,
I was surprised this one wasn't more convincing. But the
Bears win in sixty seven percent of the simulations. The
most likely score. Bears are suddenly spicy. I know, they're feisty,

(22:17):
sunken them. I mean, they do win by more than
four and sixty one point six percent of the stimulations.
But I guess I would have I don't know, I
just would have thought that was a little bit more convincing.
I don't know. The one thing I'm tracking again Bears
defensive backs health just because we see Nattie Jackson, you
saw them lose one of You've seen some things go
on there. Ultimately, what this one boils down to this

(22:37):
is probably this is probably like in a way thing
that that's driving it in terms of you know, you've
seen greatness from the Bears, there's a chance that like
keeping that up is very difficult. That's kind of I've
been looking way into streaks and it don't like that word,
but you know what like wins after winds or how
to approach something where you have kind of like the

(22:59):
four and ours have been difference And that's more emotional
than it is. Oh, but it's more qualitative than quantitative.
But it's like if you've been if you've been on
the field for X minutes, right, and then you've been
you know, like if the defense has been on the
field for X minutes and then you go across the
country and you're doing x more minutes against people who
are surprisingly like their old line first San Francisco surprisingly

(23:20):
good there d their their defense has been able to
get starting to get pressure. They're trending up sort of,
you know what I mean. So it's like, if you're
in that situation and you're tired, you've just played very
big games in a row, then that could you know,
I'm tracking something for the future. But that's that's interesting
at least. Yeah, this is um I'm still not quite

(23:40):
sure what to make of the Bears offense. I mean,
their defense is so good and it's very hard for
me to envision a Niners team that is down darn
near everybody. I mean, if Matt Breeda plays, he plays
for like a quarter um and they still run the
ball pretty well. I mean, they still are able to
execute Kyle Shanahan's vision on offense, which is impressive. Just
to make sure that there is there is their fullback
playing pro bowler, Kyle use Check. Yeah, he needs to

(24:03):
do that. You've got what backup offensive lineman, third string quarterback, uh,
fourth string running back at this point, third string wide receiver.
Like it is crazy how beat up this team is,
and yet they just knocked off the Broncos and Seahawks
fighting to make the playoffs and back to back weeks.
All right, um to the Broncos. Speaking of the Broncos,

(24:26):
the aforementioned Broncos, the the disappointing back to back losses.
They will take on the Raiders on Monday Night Football.
This one's kind of brutal contest, by the way, to
put on national TV if in fact this is the
last game at Oakland Elma Colisseum. Just an odd anyway,
Maybe that's like you know, they talked about the fourth quarter. Anyways,
Broncos win the simulations most likely score Broncos. What I

(24:49):
tell you, the number is Broncos two and a half.
So more than that by more than that? Yeah, Um,
this one's look. It comes down to the fact that
stability from Philip Lindsay. I know he didn't have best
Fantasy game for you last game, but Broncos run game,
Bronco's ability to control the clock, Bronco's ability to score
points is greater than greater than Raiders. And I do
think that the Broncos defense has a nice outing. Bradley

(25:11):
Chub von Miller a nice a nice pressure, a nice
pressure packed Monday for all of us. Merry Christmas to all,
no question. And I love those Bronco receivers. That's an
impressive young group of receivers put together. Kind You're Tim Patrick,
you've been You're on love Tim Patrick, love, Shawn Hamilton's love,
Courtland Sutton. I mean three rookies, and they all look

(25:32):
really really good. Um, and they all fit exactly. You know,
Courtland on the outside day Shawn in that slot. Tim
Patrick is kind of the outside that's doing a lot
of that pre snet motion taking handoffs and all over
the field. So it's been it's been impressive to see
that with the trade of Damerius and the injury to
Manny Sanders. Uh, Falcons And I'm with you on that.
I think the Broncos win that one, even though the

(25:53):
emotional stuff, right, you know you, But I don't know.
I saw some weird decisions, like if you're talking about
the fourth quarter, they did not use any of their
time out to their last game. So I mean, I'm
not gonna there's no I'm not making any accusations, but
if you're trying to win a game, do you just
leave all your time out there at the end of
the game. Anyways, I would say the decision making by
the head coach has been less than optimal. The Falcons

(26:18):
at Panther and bad news today, Um, you have Atlanta
by two and a half. Yep, total forty three and
a half. Obviously that all shifted to camp. Yeah, actually
like exactly opposite shift. Carolina had a two and a
half point head start in this one before that and
it was forty seven. So now, just this is an

(26:39):
interesting one to not watch. Um for this purpose, Falcons
win fifty one point six percent of the simulations. Here's
the score that comes up twenty four and nineteen. Blah
blah blah. Uh that's not a great but it's not
a strong it's not a strong indicator of anything other
than well, you just turned like orange on the TV. Um.
That's the light. It's my lighting. There we go, right,

(27:00):
the only thing that's like, look at just solidified the
fact that Christian McCaffrey is a great pick this week.
It's just it's gonna be McCaffrey, McCaffrey, and then a
little bit more McCaffrey. I don't know about Taylor Heinekey
in terms of you know, this is not okay. Maybe
it's a defense to target. But let's just keep it
simple and keep it with Christian McCaffrey. Okay, that'll uh

(27:21):
segue perfectly into our fantasy futures. Let's do it where
I get to judge you. Yeah, well, I mean is
that judging me? This whole podcast? I don't like it,
Bill like it one bit. It's like talking. You put
your hand in your pockets, rolling your eyes. I get
to do it. Now, see how you like it? Do
my best, Bill Smith? Right here, this is entertaining for

(27:41):
no one but us, because it's entertaining for me. Actually,
what do we got, Synthia, give me some spice fantasy futures?
Who gets a touchdown Kenyan Drake? Wow, that is spicy
because he's okay, yeah, okay, because he's been bad. So
that's spicy, all right, c J? Use them? Uh could
have used it last week? Thanks a lot, Um, Okay,

(28:04):
week he doesn't care about thanks thanks a lot, c J. Okay,
you should say spicy against the Browns. Okay um? How
about okay, this one's actually a little see here, I'll
be the judge of that spicy. Elijah McGuire, No, that's
not spicy to know he's there, he's there, lead back

(28:25):
now he's getting all the carries. I like that my
daily that that that money's interest earlier today. I mean,
I definitely like. I figure if I have it in
my daily interest, and I'm so stupid that it can't
possibly be spicy. It's as bland as a boiled potato. Alright,
give me something better. How about Chris Carson ending up
as a top ten fantasy running back for the week.

(28:48):
How is that not spicy? Top ten Chris Carson Seattle,
Kansas City, Kansas City's defense. But top ten, how knife
through soft butter, that's what that defense is. Fine, Cameron
brad touchdown, Okay, I'll take that. Alright, I will take
that great touchdown against the Cowboys. Now we're back to

(29:10):
the spice, you see, Cynthia. We're just gonna work through
these things. We still how one more here? How spicies? Yeah,
I'd say that Mary's is pretty spicy. Fine, not done?
Come on against Tampa's defense. Really, I don't know. I
don't know what what makes you happy anymore. I just
don't even know any from this morning. I would think

(29:32):
you would know these things. But I'll give you to
Marius Thomas Bridge too far. You don't want to do
any point. Okay, alright, fine, We've still got a lot
of pod to go here. Bill already hates me. I
don't need you on my bedside either. All right, we
have a pick them Packers Jets. Okay, let's let's be honest.

(29:53):
If so, we heard news today Aaron Rodgers said he's
going to play, So he's gonna play. He said he's
gonna play. So the I think that in terms of
who gets the head start, I think the Packers will
be favored probably if that's true. If he does play,
then the Packers will be favorite. It won't be a
pick if that's true. We just don't know what's gonna

(30:14):
necessarily happen. And then that's what you have. That's what
your model says. It says Packers by three, says Packers
by three, But I don't know if it'll be three
that it shifts by. I just I have Packers by three.
I have Packers winning, so people can know. And that's
with and that's with Aaron Rodgers. So that's a hurt
Aaron Rodgers, Rogers. It would be big, ye. But but

(30:36):
look it's that that one will that one will be
the market will shift on that one based on what
he says, but probably come Friday, you know, I don't
know if it's going to shift before then. Okay, moved
to the dogs. Yeah, let's do that. You like the dogs,
you like the points Chiefs at Seahawks Sunday Night football,
and this is the one you're gonna do the in

(30:56):
depth analysis on game day morning right now, Chase Road
favorites two and a half total fifty three and a half.
What do you have have the Chiefs winning in fifty
two point six percent of the simulations, but only by
one point. Okay, it's very class, very likely final score.

(31:17):
Seahawks have been in some pretty darn tight games all
season long, so I can see why the model might
think this one will be by the slimmest of margins.
When I tell really quick that that that you like
what jumps out, well, what jumps out is In the
past four games, Seattle has given up more than eight
yards per planned first down, mostly coming off passes. But

(31:40):
that's a huge number, especially considering one. Kansas City's ability
to you can run, you can pass, they have multiple
options or offensive diversity is great, and the fact that
they can score really quickly. So it's that fast start
that really. The fast start and their ability just get
themselves in a good situation, that's where that's what gives

(32:00):
the slight edge. Okay, Um, I have very you know,
my I guess my Kansas City Chiefs analysis is gonna
be a little bit clouded because of recency bias. It's
the last game I watched, so I just kind of
got to see the great and the bad. Um. I
got to see Pat Mahomes extent place and as you mentioned,
just he's got an arm that other people simply don't possess.

(32:21):
It doesn't get tired, he doesn't get tired. And for Seattle,
I think they're one of the more underrated fronts. I
think Frank Clark's probably, if not the at least in
the conversation, is one of the two or three best
pass rushers that nobody knows about, um because there's been
so much celebration talk about him every week. But I'm
just saying, like nationally, you know it's gonna be Bobby
Wagner's the greatest middle linebacker on the history of the league,

(32:43):
and he's going to the Hall of Fame, and kJ
writes great, and look how great these guys are going
sideline to sideline and plug in holes and on and on.
But um, the one thing that will be interesting is
whether or not that secondary that was suspect at the
start of the season could hold up against all those weapons.
And I'm not that that's that's where my concern would
lie with Seattle, where my concern lies with with the Chiefs.

(33:05):
It's just, you know, this season allowed that's that's huge.
I mean, that is absolutely huge. And when you're able
to limit their possessions. And I don't think it's fair
to pile on this like recent thing that I've heard
from a lot of different people are read a lot
as well. You know, Mahomes lost three huge games this season, lost,

(33:28):
you know, at New England, lost to the Rams, and
then lost at home to the Chargers with a division
on line. Okay, the guy, you know one, Okay, lost
a game to the Rams fifty one. All right, That's
that's very hard to say that you don't believe in
him because of that. He also happened to win at Pittsburgh,
so there's that he won at the Chargers. So it's
not like there isn't anything there to make you believe

(33:50):
that that Pat Mahomes is able to overcome adversity and
win the big game. The one thing that does make
me nervous if I were a Chiefs fan against Seattle
is a clock consumed mean drives. Be That is a
tough place to play, man. That is a very hard
place to win a football game. Um, and I think
Seattle is kind of hitting their stride, whereas maybe maybe

(34:12):
Kansas City still staying a little bit from letting that
one slip away and allowing fifteen points in the final
four minutes. I don't know. I think it probably stings
to San Francisco, right, It probably stings a little bit
to losing San Francisco. So I think that was surprising.
I mean, I for like, I think that. By the way,
what I was going to interrupt you with before was um,

(34:32):
I got like, because you're fine. I got a little
tear in my eye. Listened to your call of it.
It was great. Like I was like, I love him
so much. She's the best, he's the most demfortable. Stop it.
It's fine. Just think you love it. Anyways, I'm very
lucky to work with you, and stop it. She's by
one you have. I don't know if it's me and

(34:54):
my job with the Chargers that's leaving me to lean Seattle,
or if it's that I was up there and I
sa just the challenges that it presents. Well, you know
he'd be to one in Seattle, Yeah, the Chargers, Yeah,
so exactly. And I think that was the first a
f C West opponent to win in Seattle. And I
don't know how long build you knows that, like ten
years or something. I remember some wacky stat um that

(35:15):
we had in our notes that for whatever reason, they've
got the West number. Here's the thing, though, if you
when you break down the Seattle defense, you can they
give up sneaky yards. They give up sneaky yards to
the past. They give up sneaky yards on certain types
of runs. And those sneaky yards are things that Andy reids.
There are things that Patrick Mahomes has been able to,

(35:36):
like those trick things that I'm gonna call them tricks
because it's like low probability things like it's not just
steam routes, right, So those are the things where Patrick
Mahomes has been able to excel in when things break down,
and that's where Seattle has been vulnerable. So that's part
of what gets them little. There's a flip side to
my Frank clark um bit of praise, and that's Chris Jones,

(35:57):
who's I was about to say, there's some good pass
Russian on that there sad too. He is so freaking good.
But how do you negate that? You know, he's an arrow,
he's an Aaron Donald type. Um, you know he's running
up field to get to the quarterback. Well, here comes
Chris Carson running right at you. And that's that's how
you go after, you know. And that's the strength of
this Chief's defense. It's d Ford, Chris Jones, just absolutely secondary.

(36:18):
And I do think you'll see Look, you didn't Eric
Berry returned. That's a big deal. And he made a
couple of plays and he also gave up some bi
He looks great against the run. He looks great against
the run. The pass not as much. And it was
beat off. It wasn't. It didn't. It wasn't what we'll
see from him. He's you got to give him a
minute to get his sea legs under him. I think

(36:41):
that we'll see more of him and more effective of him.
So I do think that comes into play in this one.
I'm taking the Seahawks, do it. I'm taking the alf.
We're both taking as Brown. Brown's favored by seven and
a half total, and ALF you have Brown's win seventy,

(37:03):
but only by seven nineteen, not seven and a half.
Seven won't give you seven and a half. That's great, Well,
why won't you give me seven and a half. Why? Okay,
So Brown's the red area they ranked five. That's great.
It's an uptickulately thing going in the right direction. Their
ability to control the clock. It's really screens which are

(37:25):
like high probability short passes. Big improvement protection for Baker Mayfield,
huge improvements since they got a new offensive coordinator. And
I mean it's not all Freddie Kitchens, right, it's like
also Baker Mayfield figuring it out a little bit more so.
The lowest effective pressure on Baker since Week nine, so
fewest sacks since then, the fewest pressures that changed plays

(37:46):
meaning you know, causing him to throw away the ball
or or check down to a dangerous a dangerous receiver
something like that he's had. They've they've really been able
to protect. And the Bengals are kind of also going
in the direct and of bringing less pressure. So where
they were very good in the beginning of the season
and the Bengals aren't. They're just not getting that effective
pressure anymore so. And the Bronze are. I mean, you

(38:09):
had I think you had two sacks on the Bronco game.
You had a whole mess of hurries, couple picks, um
a bunch of tackles for loss. And to me, this
is what they got to get. Joe Mixon going against
the huge mixing is gonna have to be a huge
mix all the volume to mix. Yeah, um, I think
more than seven and a half. I'll take the Browns.
Do you think, Um, Hugh Jackson's the next coach? There

(38:32):
just just a question, I hope, because I mean, just
ask him. He deserves it. He's he's he's great because
players let him down in Cleveland, his players and his coaches.
Wasn't him They had just listened to him, Everything had
been great. You know who's brilliant? Used to use it
freaking football genius one and thirty one in two years.
The players and the other coach's fault. You know what.

(38:52):
It is kind of genius to be able to get
to one in thirty. You know what I'm saying. It's remarkable,
So should never happen. I'm just saying. And the thing
about you is why I think he'll get the job
is because listen to the players, you know, listen to
them seeing his praises. All those Cleveland Browns really miss
you think right here when he was here, just he
was something. That guy was something. By the way, you

(39:13):
just insulted Bill Back because Bill is a Bengals fan,
so you know you are. I'm sorry, Bill, It's all right.
I have to I have to get in here because
you asked. The last time in an f C West
Team one in Seattle, Kansas City Chiefs in two thousand
and ten, when Dwyane Bow caught three touchdowns from Matt Castle.
So it takes this Matt Castle and Dwyane Bow caught it. Yeah,

(39:34):
cast Dog Southern California zone that that's just too bad
to Castle. Dwayne Bow. I apologize to interrupt. No, that
was great. Touchdowns is worth it totally. I forgot you're
a Bengals guy. I'm sorry you have they hire Hugh Jackson.
I think that's it for my Bengals fans. It's it's
such an egregious offense at this point. Is that that
maybe it for I'm lobbying for him to become a
cults fan. That's that's next. Hey, it's drivable. I used

(39:58):
to do the old I used to fly into Detroit,
drive down to uh Cleveland, do Dayton, Cincinnati, and then
drive over to Indian fly home. That was my little
music business Midwest run. And it was in Dayton when
I had my epiphany. By the way, I sat in
a hotel and I had a program director telling me
that my band and I was working on I think
on Jimmy World. He's like, this band is terrible. They
will amount to nothing. I don't want to do. And
I remember sitting in that hotel room, going, this is

(40:20):
really happening right now, Like I'm really sitting in a
hotel room. I've got a brand new daughter who's like
two years old, and I've got this guy in Dayton
telling me that I don't know music and he's not
gonna play my band, Jimmy World, and that's what I've got.
I quit. I'm leaving this stuke in business. I can't
take it. I'm sorry. I like Jiffy great like I was.
That was before the whole bleed American middle all those

(40:41):
songs came out. And uh, he was the one that
told me this band would amount to nothing. And it
was in Dayton and it was w x E G
the Edge and Dayton I believe was the name of
the radio station. I don't remember who the program director was. Sorry,
Hugh Jackson. Hugh Jackson, I hope he's not your coach.
Who's what I wanted to ask you though? Was this
real quick um? Who's the color analyst for the Bengals

(41:03):
radio broadcast? Do you remember his name? All right? Forget it?
Vikings Allions? Uh, Vikings by five and a half total
forty three and a half. What do you got? Vikings
win sixty four point three percent of the sims most
likely score. You ready for it? You're taking the dog?

(41:24):
Holy cow. No, I hate the Lions. I know you
do the Lions, but you can't ignore math. That's what
I love about this. It actually like angers me when
I see that. Come yeah, it's like, okay, so what
are the Lions done? As of, like, well, they've lost
four or five? They just got you know, kind of
is that what it is? Four? If I know three
or four? No, it's like I think it's three or
four a million of a million and one exactly that anyway. Alright,

(41:47):
so why why why take the points? Well, we saw
last week against Miami, you saw Dovin Cook seven rushes
of ten plus that actually doubled his season total in
one game. When you go back and watch it, like
see how many times he's actually blocked done any of
those very low number. It's easy to run when nobody's
trying to stop you from running. The lines have gotten
a lot better against the run. Kind of the run

(42:09):
is the is the key to their offense. We don't
exactly know what Kevin Stevanski is going to be doing necessarily,
but we did see you know, a lot more play action.
We saw you know, passing outside of the tackle box.
We saw it like back to basics type of stuff.
And that's the kind of stuff that the lines of
of late gotten better at. Their better at stopping to run.

(42:31):
They're better at, you know, defending easy things. Mapatricia is
good at coaching defense. It pains me because this is
just a tough This is a tough call, and I
actually have feeling this week being the hero. If you're
looking for your fantasy, I don't think it's I don't
think it's Yeah, I don't know, it's not. Digs has
a bad matchup. I mean, some of the players online

(42:54):
secondary are good, um and and uh, but ultimately I
don't think Dalvin could being so like keeping it so
stable and like they like you saw against Mammy. They're not.
That's not The Lions just don't allow that, you know,
it's not what the Damon Harrison has been a huge
difference maker in the middle of that defense. So as
much as it pains me, I think they keep it

(43:14):
a little closer. Let's take it Giants of Colts, the
team that you want Bill Smith to become a fan of.
I'm actually I'm kind of like if the Lions keep
doing stupid things, I'm I'm I'm kind of border state.
It's a border state. It's the other conference. Why the
heck not. It's easier for you than it is for Bill.
You know, it's an AFC team, Giants Colts, Colts favored
by nine, but you like I like the Colts to

(43:35):
win sixty three, but I think it's a little closer.
That's eight by eight. Now there you go. Never fails math.
Look when it's close. That just means of doing something right. Um.
First of all, is Odell Beckham playing this model? Says
so only I don't think he's going to so by

(43:57):
the way, Colts shut out the Cowboy last week, playing
a team that was shut out this past week as well,
So there's that. Yeah, it's the shut up. How about that? See,
I don't need some fancy model for that kind of
analysis that I'm bringing to this thing, exactly. I think
it's more like, if there's if no Odell, then the
opportunity to slow down sake one Barkley. I don't think stop,

(44:20):
but slow down stake one Barkley becomes greater. That's the
way the Giants would beat the Colts if they would.
And it's a big, big favorite air Um Arrow pointing
to the Colts in that one Darris Leonard with forty
tackles is you know, I'm not sure how many times
that came up in the model, but you know, we're
probably gonna have forty carries for sake, Kwan or forty

(44:41):
tackles for Leonard for Leonard unless it's like forty carries
for like forty yards. Always see what you're saying, you
know what I mean, Like I don't know, but that
that would mean to be getting the heck beat out
of him, right, and he's like, oh my gosh, he's
got yards in a game, Let's keep giving it to him.
Yeah all right, yeah, none of my shenanigans. By the way,

(45:02):
one cool thing here that I'm really that I'm very
much keeping an eye on. I'm curious if with t
Y Hilton, right, I'm watching all of his different routes
because he's had very his use has been like very different.
So going forward, if they're going to make it to
the playoffs, which I'm hoping. I want my Cold to
make it to playoffs. I'm curious to see how they're

(45:23):
going to use him. This is a game where you
could have a good t Y Hilton game in this one.
You know who doesn't want them to make the playoffs?
The Patriots. I know, here's nothing that I want more
than this story. That's the best storyline ever. That's just
say that because they're the team that's in the three slot.
If the Steelers end up there, if the Texans slide
back there, I can tell you right now if there's

(45:44):
one person that they do not want to see in
that sixth hole, who for his three, it's Andrew Luck
And I know I really want that to have like
that is my like. I love that narrative. Oh, I
love it. It's tough because of the Baltimore defense. You know,
I'd love to see that defense in the playoffs as well.
Just knocking the snop. I just want to I want

(46:05):
the Ravens to make it, and I want I want
the Ravens to make it, and I want the Cold.
I'm sorry, Steelers fans, not a fandom thing. I just
like chaos right, So well, I guess yeah, then you
would have to have the Steelers lose, right, I want,
I want, I want that narrative of like the Colts
face the Patriots with Andrew luck and who was a
shoulder okay, oh, and then he throws for three fifty

(46:25):
yards to beat the Patriots and Josh McDaniels is crying
on the sideline. That's so good. That's what you're looking
rates itself. Rams of Cardinals, Rams by total forty six.
What do you got, um? I have the Rams winning
in seventies seven point one of simulations. The score I
have is sev so that's what they beat him by

(46:46):
in the first meeting, like sixty. It's a little different
now though. Nothing In week two of the season, the
Rams defeated the Cardinals. I think that's why you see
two touchdowns there as the as the head start. It's
crazy to say, right, especially after what the Cardinals gave
us last week getting humiliated by the Falcons um scoring

(47:06):
three points against the Lions at home. No less that
that might have been the worst game of the year
by the way Lions Cardinals two weeks ago might have been.
The Dolphins and the Jags could top at this six
six nothing Colts Jacks was pretty bad. That's that's pretty
but that was that game was pathetic anyway, Um, I
don't know, man, that Rams offensive line has been bad

(47:27):
and Chandler Jones is still playing God versus pressure. Looks
like Blaine Gabbert when he started to fall apart and
was just like taking the snaps. It was like Hike
just threw it right away. I mean there was no
footwork whatsoever, just started freaking out. Um, anyway, I want
to know is okay. I don't think he is. I mean,
if he was, would they have signed C. J. Anderson?
Todd Gurley was all right, yeah, that's that's confusing to me.

(47:51):
I want to see. I also think that you know,
if I've pointed out that you can run in the
middle of the Rams line and people keep doing it,
and Jordan Howard did it, and I mean you keep
see seeing that be like a big factor in these games.
Like I mean David Johnson remember him, I mean he
used to be awesome. Now he's kind of still awesome,
but just not used as much. And he could run

(48:12):
right in the middle of that line and keep things
a lot closer than than the Rams would like. So
that's the kind of thing Aaron Donald have fun going
after Josh. I'm going this way five and a half yards. No,
it's like, hey, where's Sue. Oh wait a minute, he
doesn't care. Oh that's the lion fan of you. No,
it's not. I'd actually rather have him. He was kind

(48:33):
of at least entertaining, right, was put a spike on
your head? Alright? Redskins Titans Saturday Football, the other part
of that double header, Chargers and Ravens. This one will
proceed it the Redskins Titans on NFL Network. What he got,
Titans favored by ten. I have the Titans winning in
seventy four percent of the simulations, but the score I
have sixteen. So for me, look, the Redskins keep having

(49:00):
keep having changes, injuries, people not being on the team,
so we don't know what we're going to get from them.
But we do know that we've seen Derrick Henry be
very good in the past few games, especially running outside
the tackles has allowed him to earn yards after contact,
which is something he wasn't doing in the first games
of the season. They're creating situations where their exotic smash

(49:20):
mouth if you will. I don't even know what that means.
And uh, you've seen Washington's defense be good. They've created
a lot of pressures on passing attempts. I think the
next gen stats I believe has them as the highest
percentage of pressures on pass on passing down. So you've
seen some you've seen the Redskins have some things that

(49:42):
can cause problems for the Titans. So ten is too much, Um,
you don't think. So the counterpoint to that, I would
think they make that. I think they make the Redskins
offense one dimensional and just start destroying it. That's what
I see. But then you gotta remember, well, Logan Ryan,
so slot you've got some like different, You've got some
things changed. But the counterpoint to the Redskins defense bringing

(50:07):
pressure is that Mario Mariota has like a better pass
rating under pressure than he does not under pressure. So
that's but it's only four passer creating points. But he
doesn't throw a lot anyway, so like short passes. It's
a little context needed there. But that's your counterpoint. If
your friends are like no, and then you were like,
well Mariot gets better there, alright. You like the Texans

(50:31):
straight up Eagles by two point total forty five. But
you think the Texans win. Do Texans win fifty three
point nine percent the Sims three? So that's three points
different than you know what other people might say. Um,
we saw the Texans and the Jets be closer in
the in the you know all, but the end of
the game, right, they had to come back to win.

(50:51):
But then when you saw is you saw DeAndre Hopkins
and Deshaun Watson kind of rekindle their connection. You saw.
I think what you saw there is that there's some injuries.
I think Lamar Miller isn't right right, So we're getting
form and back potentially, that's the word on the street
at least. So I think what you're seeing there is
you're seeing the Texans adapt and they still have that

(51:12):
awesome front. Now the Eagles front was great against Jared
Goff and the Rams, but their corners are still they're
still playing with not even I wouldn't even call them
back up maybe back up to the backup to the Yeah,
so that squad corners. Yeah, so you saw what DeAndre
Hopkins and Deshaun Watson can do together. So that's that's

(51:35):
the biggest kind of factor. And by the way that
Demarius Thomas there if they want to try to double team,
you know, or triple team DeAndre Hopkins, well, Demarius Thomas
has proven that he can catch balls in the end zone.
Two and then there's always the legs of the Shawn Watson.
So there's that. Yeah, yeah, exactly, yeah, alright, you ready confidence,

(51:56):
I'm ready. I'm give me three zero to one this week.
Prior to that, I think you were three and all
the week before. So let's get a bounce back, how
about it. I want Chicago and I want four, So Chicago, Chicago,
and it's four more because because like I just I mean,
if you want me to tell you who's gonna win
that we already know that those are seventies eighties. No,

(52:16):
we need to do it. We make it fun. I
want my Dallas. I'm going with my Dallas again because
we started with that Dallas huge and I U yeah,
and I know, let's go with this one. Um, I
like you know what I'm going to go with the
Let's keep it not so spicy and have the Denver
Denver and two and a half Denver Okay, Denver at

(52:38):
Oakland Winds big and I just like to say the
winds big if it's bigger than so Bears Broncos and
uh Bears Broncos and but Cowboys. Because I wanted to
did this to you last week, I should three favorites.
Don't do it. Don't do it when they go with threes. Fine,

(52:59):
you want me to go really spicy and take Seattle
was telling you. I'm just telling you that I wouldn't
have done it, but you do you ye, I'm fine.
Do you want points then? Because I can tell you.
I just point out that that's what always happens. When
people decide to kind of clump three teams together, they
typically go with the three teams that look like on
paper they should win by you know what, I don't

(53:21):
care if my stock's miss priced. I'll buy the miss
priced stock that it gives me that goes up, right.
I don't care if they're like companies that I don't
care if they're all Google. I wanted to go I
wanted to go up. I want to be right, Okay, alright, alright,
we'll see what happens. Um. We are a game theory
and money, and we're brought to you by Burrow. The
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order and a big thinking to Burrow for supporting our show.
It's time for game theory and money playoff projections, and
what that means is, Cynthia, you run all the simulation

(54:48):
based on simulations based on the outcomes of the final
two games for each of these teams, and then you
assign a percentage as to which teams will make their
way into the postseason. Of course you are you have
a number of teams that have qualified, but you're also
going to slot what you think will end up being
the one through six seeds. So it's not only who's in,
but where they end up. So you want to start

(55:10):
where NFC or a FC. Let's start with the NFC
because it's a little less complicated. Then it's a little
more straightforward than that. And I do want to mention
the man sitting across from you as our dear friend,
Bill Smith and researcher. It's not related to No, he's
not looking at him. He's got his hands in his pockets.
He hates me, but that's okay. I like Bill. He
may hate me, but I like him. All Right, we

(55:31):
start in the NFC and you have three teams that
have already punched their ticket, the Rams, the Saints, the Bears.
So walk us through who else gets in and then
take us through an order here. Okay, so we're gonna
start an order, so Saints than Rams than Bears, and
then I have Cowboys point two. So pretty good. But
it's kind of interesting that the Seahawks at and nine
have a higher percentage despite the Cowboys probably going to

(55:55):
win the division and get the four seed. I don't know,
I think that's a little interestingly. Why is it that
you think the Seahawks have a better chance to make
the playoffs right now than the Cowboys even though it
looks like they're both going to get in. What is
that sort of minor variants there? It really comes from
the fact that the Eagles have not quite died yet,
you know, like they they're not. It's the what drive.

(56:16):
The Seahawks have such a strong wind total already, and
they're forward looking projections, so at least one more win
they have. They have a very high forward looking projection,
which means that they're the most likely to have the
best record, so meaning that they're most likely to get
the five seats, and the Eagles just they just keep
holding on and this the Cowboys just didn't seal the deal.

(56:38):
So that's just that little, that little shred of down there,
just just kind of the weird thing to to to
build on sort of the question you asked their bill
is that you have, you know, a Dallas team that's
swept the Eagles. So basically, the Eagles need the Cowboys
to lose out. Eagles need to win out in order
for them to take that NFC East crown. And you
would think that the percentage will be pretty i um

(57:01):
for the Cowboys, and it is, it's two point two.
But it is interesting, like you said, the Seahawks have
no chance of winning their division because the Ramps have
already clinched it, yet the Cowboys have a lower percentage.
It's odd um. But at the same time, it could
also just suggest that the competition for the wild card,
right Cynthia is is not that great and have that
big yeah. I mean, look the Panthers really, when they
lost all those games in a row, they just took

(57:24):
a huge chunk out of their playoff opportunity and left everyone.
Now they're the Panthers are at number nine right now,
two point one percent left with Cam out. It's that's
not it's even less than two four one percent right
now now that Cam is announced that he's not playing
you you have to say that probably something like that, right, Yeah,
So I mean realistically speaking, I mean the cloudiness with

(57:49):
the NFC East is really because the division hasn't been
sealed yet. So that's that's what the cloudiness is, which
will likely happen this week, right, And I mean that.
The interesting thing for the Seahawks though, is, um, they're
eight and six, right, the Eagles are seven and seven,
the Redskins are seven and seven, So it's and they're
playing the Chiefs this week, so I'll be anxious to

(58:09):
see if, in fact they lose that game how much
that knocks the Seahawks down. Let's just say the Eagles
knock off the Texans and the Seahawks lose to the Chiefs,
and what that ends up doing to the Cowboys wins? Um,
the Cowboys win? Yeah, okay, I just say, yeah, so
the Cowboys win, they'll go to a hundred percent they'll
win the division. Right. If the Cowboys win, it's a
hundred percent. And then if the Viking, I mean, look,

(58:29):
if somehow the Vikings lose or the Seahawks lose, the
Seahawks are still going to be It's very unlikely that
even with a loss. I can see it right here.
If they lose, the Seahawks are still going to have
I guess that's true, because don't pin Eagles and Redskins
closed together, right that they I think they play each other,
so one of them would end up at eight and eight, right,
it's really Minnesota's to lose for number six, and Seattle

(58:50):
in week seventeen hosts Arizona. So that's the model has
a very strong favorite, yes, right, So alright, I mean
not as exciting on this one, but you know that's
the biggest be the biggest jump I'm guessing would likely
be the Eagles winning this week and that they are
not favored to win. Right. If the Eagles win, and

(59:11):
so the Eagles fans should be rooting for their team,
and they should also be rooting for the Lions right
to knock off the Vikings exactly again the way the
percentages work, because you're because it doesn't really it's not
going to really matter if the Chiefs knock off the Seahawks,
but the Vikings fans, they're the the Eagles fans need
the Vikings to lose this game that they're strongly favorite in, right,

(59:35):
because that will give them their seventh loss, and the
Eagles have a chance to win out and get to
nine and seven, whereas exactly uh Minnesota would end up
getting there there seven they wouldn't see. Okay, um, let's
go to the hey money, look at number five. You're
gonna be working in January. I mean, you already knew that,
but like deep in January they are. Well, it's it's unfortunate.

(59:58):
I guess for the a f C West, you'll end
up with the two best records in the conference, and
one of them is gonna end up as a wild
card team that's gotta win three games on the road
if they want to make their way to the postseason.
And they've been, you know, probably the two best teams
in the a f C this season. So them the Brakes,
them's the Brakes. So right after the game was played

(01:00:19):
last week, right like right on Thursday night at like
you know, twelve oh two after the game, before any
other a f C games were played, or we knew
anything about what the NFC games were either. Actually the Chargers,
I had the Chargers edging out the Chiefs for the
for the number one. It's still very very very close

(01:00:42):
in this game. But as to who's going to win
that division. But right now, just it's the chief spy,
the tiniest bit because the Eric Barry stuff that we
saw and it's trajectory to help them just enough, I
mean before it was close and that that kind of helps,
you know, seal it. Same with Damian Williams being effective.
So those your model has the winning in Seattle, but

(01:01:04):
not very convincingly, but they haven't winning and then they
obviously it will have a winning by a substantial margin
at home against the Raiders. So you know, that's that's
all they need to do. When your games doesn't matter
by how many when your games and you win the
but that's Seattle game. That Seattle game is so pivotal.
So it's but the Damian Williams helped that. Like what
we saw from Damian Williams, what we saw your part,

(01:01:24):
by the way, that was the one that you were
preaching in the World of Fantasy. I did preach that.
I did like that one. And Eric Berry coming back
that was just a tiny little difference maker when you
went back with the computer vision, I went through it.
So that's just stuff not so certain. You have the
Texans at two uh and the Patriots at three. You
think that holds? You know, It's funny because when I
go back and see, I don't think it holds. I

(01:01:47):
think the Patriots ultimately end up like my gut tells
me something different. They are point three percent different. So
it's not like the models five or six percent off.
And I'm telling you my guts different. It's it's point three.
It couldn't be much closer right now, So I mean,
I'm going with a model. I believe in my model.
And defensive fronts are a huge deal. Defensive fronts mean

(01:02:09):
deep playoff runs and Houston's got a great one. So
that is that is a big difference in this one.
If Houston wins out, they get to two, that's right.
So they have to beat Philly, beat the Jackson team
that has not played particularly well in a long time.
I think Money said earlier they've won one game in
their last six or seven game. I think it's been
against Andrew exactly where they couldn't score right. Um, But

(01:02:33):
but that's what I'm saying, right like, it's it's tiniest,
the tiniest of margin. And meanwhile, the Patriots finished up
their season hosting host the Bills. And the Jets and
the Jets. However, for New England in the past, they've
only gone the Super Bowls when they've gotten the bye week.
So the getting the three seats for New England having

(01:02:54):
the host on wild Card weekend, they've seen the Ravens
come in there and win in wild Card weekend in
New England before. Are they really really want that number
two seed? Yeah, probably pains them considering what happened in
the Super Bowl. But boy are they big Eagles fans
this week because they obviously on the tiebreaker, will not
obviously maybe you didn't recognize that the two teams played
earlier season then Patriots one, so they own the tiebreaker

(01:03:15):
against the Texans, so that's all they need. They will
have the way back in a Week one, all the
way back in a week one, and that would put
them into the two um Steelers. You have them winning
the a f C North after that big win versus
the Patriots. Fifty five point four is that convincing? Not really,
it's not to be. Ravens are fifty point five and
right now they're then six, So fifty five point four

(01:03:36):
fifty point five, it's anyone's game as to who wins
that division, Okay, and let's get to the four teams
for two spots then, So if you have them winning
the division, that means Baltimore is now fighting for that
six spot, So one of them is going to be
the second a f C West person. So it's one spot, right,
you know, it's like, I mean, yes's just for six.
The sive is already either the Chiefs or the Chargers, right,

(01:03:59):
so it's fives are their teacher charters, and then the
six could either be Baltimore, Indianapolis or Tennessee. Realistically technically
the Dolphins five well, right, or whoever you have pit
winning the division. So let's get to those four your right, right.
So so if if it's going to be the non
winner of the a f C North, the Colts and

(01:04:19):
the Titans, right, that's the that's who's fighting for the
last You know, it's funny because when you look at this,
and by the way, the Browns shilling at two and
is December. Just kind of thought it was like late
December now, so that's kind of interesting. Um, they need
like crazy things to happen, including a tie between the
Colts and the Titans in week seventeen. So that's pretty funny.

(01:04:41):
But whatever, Um, I think that it's going to end
up being the Ravens. I think it's gonna play out
the way because they're you know, convincing enough liket pent
of the Samulations versus forty seven point eight. But you know,
I ran it with the Ravens losing the Ravens winning. Obviously,
if they're Ravens can knock off the Chargers this week,
that pretty much well, you know, solidify and we put

(01:05:04):
it into it. Let me put it into this context.
Do you think and I believe and I'm gonna I'm
gonna back you into a corner to it, Cynthia, because
it's your math. You have the Titans winning this week,
you have the Colts winning this week. You have the
Ravens losing this week. That means and I have the
Steelers losing this week too, But that means either the

(01:05:25):
Colts are the Titans end up tenant six and they
take that six spot because the Ravens will end up
getting their seventh loss this weekend against the Chargers. So
the Colts and Titans play in week seventeen, and if
the Colts knock off the Giants and the Titans knock
off the Redskins, which your model says they will, then
that will be the winner take all um unless the
Ravens can knock off the Chargers, or unless there's also

(01:05:48):
a scenario with like the Steelers and because they placed
New Orleans right so and then they close with the
Bengals at home. At that one, that one's a convincing one.
But Steelers aren't favored this week. Ravens aren't favored this week.
And the math she has says that if you look
at the Steelers at fifty five and a half percent
and the Ravens at fifty point five, you add those together,

(01:06:10):
you're at one oh six and a hundred percent of
that goes to the a f C North winner. There's
only there's only but one of those two teams has
to make the playoffs through that division. That so that
means there's only a six percent chance that the team
that does not win the division gets that succeed. So
what you're saying is it is very likely that either

(01:06:31):
the Colts or Titans get that succeed It's which team
of the Steelers or the Ravens can win their last
two games get the last got you That's a good point. Yeah,
because that's basically happed. They're one of those two teams
wins that and then the Titans or the Colts end
up winning the six spots. So a lot of pressure
on both those teams this week, Steelers and Ravens to

(01:06:52):
to get that. I just want the cold. I just
want that narrative. How can I make that happen. I
think it's gonna happen because look, I mean, they absolutely
the Titans in their first meeting, and I know they
have to go to Tennessee. Well, Tennessee keeps dropping people.
I mean, they're like they're different teams. They're so injured,
they keep getting more injuries. You know, Logan Ryan gone,
Jack Conklin, Jack Conklin gone, Johnny Smith gone. It's unfortunately.

(01:07:16):
I want the Titans to be I want someone to
I want chaos. I always root for chaos, right Like,
if I could have it my way, I'd put the
Browns in there to win the division, and then I'd
have it be like, you know, Colts and Titans make
it something crazy. I think it was crazy. That would
be the Ravens lose both, the Stealers lose both, the
tie at the end I don't even know whatever, nor

(01:07:37):
is there all right there? It is a f C
and NFC playoff projections. I'm sure it will change. Actually,
I don't think it will change all that much for
next weekends. So you didn't say you have coming in there?
You think the rain I think the Colts. Yeah. I
think the Ravens lose this week of the Chargers, that
eliminates them. I think the Steelers lose, but because they
have that tie, they'll end up beating the Bengals and
unfortunately the Ravens will be that odd man out. And

(01:07:59):
I think the Colts end up, how seeing the Titans
again in week seventeen and take that six seed, and
that's gonna be fun, and it's gonna be a lot
of fun because they're gonna play the Patriots in New
England and Andrew luck is gonna be white freaking hot,
and it'll be But then again, and Darius there, maybe
that's Darius Leonard game right. That is our playoff projection

(01:08:21):
for week well, heading into week sixteen, do we miss
anything one thing? Just to clean up right there, the
Browns cannot win the a f C North once the
Steelers beat the Patriots. That is out, they can only
win succeed. There you go. Well, alright, my thanks a lot,
Bill for humiliating me on the way out. I really
appreciate it. You can always count on you, absolutely always
there to help us a bowl. Let's go cal Bears.

(01:08:42):
Mike Silver's at least Mike Silver will like me. I
don't care is took in your stupid horn frogs. Let's
go cal alright, that's it. So that is game theory
and money for week sixteen. A big thank you to
our man Shoppy for producing things, to our man Mark
Brady for being the enemy of fun, Bill Smith helping
out with all that great research and judging me throughout
the last seventy minutes or so, and of course the

(01:09:04):
centerpiece of it all, Cynthia Freeland. And thank you to
all of you for downloading, subscribing, listening, streaming, dealing with
us on social media, spraying the word on social media.
We appreciate it. We'll be back again next week to
react to everything that happened in week sixteen. Thanks, thank
you again. It'll be back. And happy holidays everybody. Oh yeah,
happy holidays. Money, thank you too, By the way, you

(01:09:26):
never get a good thank you