Game Theory and Money Week 17 Projections

Not only will you get the predicted score of every week 17 game, which Cynthia Frelund came up with after running 10-thousand simulations on every matchup, but you will also get the playoff probabilities for each team still alive, AND for the first time, Cynthia's Super Bowl probability meter will tell you which team in each conference has the best chance to win the Super Bowl!

Chargers-Broncos (2:00). 49ers-Rams (5:00). Jets-Patriots (7:20). Panthers-Saints (9:50). Jaguars-Texans (12:00). Colts-Titans (16:30). Browns-Ravens (24:40). Steelers-Bengals (30:00). Eagles-Redskins (31:30). Raiders-Chiefs (33:40). Seahawks-Cardinals (39:00). Cowboys-Giants (40:25). Bears-Vikings (42:00). Dolphins-Bills (47:45). Falcons-Buccaneers (48:05). Lions-Packers (48:22). TOP 3 CONFIDENCE PICKS (49:25). NFC PLAYOFF PROBABILITIES (52:20). NFC SUPER BOWL PROBABILITIES (57:00). AFC PLAYOFF PROBABILITIES (59:15). AFC SUPER BOWL PROBABILITIES (1:04:50).

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
Welcome to Game Theory and Money, your holiday edition. As
we are nailing this thing down right between Christmas and
New Year's for all of you who celebrate whatever it
is you may celebrate, we issue a very happy holiday season.
We hope the football has been kind to you, and
perhaps this week seventeen, we'll do the same real quick
uh last week against the number Cynthia seven, eight and

(00:22):
one and a one one and one once more wild
on your confidence picks on the season and confidence picks
and two if for whatever reason you have decided this
is the first week you are going to listen to
this podcast. Understand it is here. It exists because of
Cynthia Freeland, our predictive Analytics executive, the executive director of

(00:44):
Predictive Analytics, the senior vice president of Predictive Analytics at
the NFL Network and NFL dot Com. UH ten thousand
simulations per game, and it gives you a better idea
of what is likely to happen. Cynthia, you know, I
don't like to grab the ask to start things out,
So how about a quick pick. I like a lot
of points when Green Bay and Detroit square off at
lambeau Field. Okay, interesting, because the game with absolutely zero,

(01:07):
absolutely nothing on the line, And that's how you can
make it fun for yourself to watch. You're gonna see
some points you go. You might imagine shout out to
your mother who was in the other studio, as she
will be watching that Detroit Green Bay game because she
can't separate herself from her favorite childhood team. Correct, that's right,
Marianne's talking about you. She's shaking her head. I'm sure

(01:30):
that's the Holly right. Shout out to all the parents. Uh,
my parents are not around, so your mother is going
to have to do. We start, Cynthia, what's that? Well? Perfect?
She made a lot of lasagna. Were all very full.
So if we're slow today, you can actually blame her
because lasagnia was so good at way too much the
old pasta nap, that's what that's what we need. But
instead we will forge on and we forge you with

(01:51):
freelance favorites, as the name suggests, favorites that you like.
This week, let's start with the game I will be
attending as I will get out of the Midwest here
to Denver on Saturday for a Sunday contest. The number
says the Chargers will will win this game by at
least six and a half. And you say what, Cynthia,
I say that you, Matt money Smith, are going to

(02:12):
see a Charger win Seventy point five percent of the
simulations is very convincing and a big one most likely
scored seventeen in my math. And why is that? Well?
Pretty much what. The more you make fun of me,
the more I laugh, the more grad Sorry, I'm sorry,

(02:33):
but the egg knocked down already, Cynthia. We're trying to
work your disgusting anyway. I know we've talked about this before,
but it's disgusting. I won't drink it. Um. Look, the Chargers,
that was a weird game against the Ravens. To score
ten points, that's not a lot of points for the
Chargers offense that we've seen do a lot of great things.
I think Melvin Gordon getting back in the rotation, everything

(02:53):
is going to be clicking on all cylinders in this one.
I don't think it's going to be a problem. I
think you're gonna see a lot of rate pass rush
on both sides of the ball. But there's a lot
of chaos with the Broncos, a lot of injuries, and
I just think that when you add up all of
the things going in favor of the Chargers, is just
greater than signed against the Broncos. It's that Yeah, And

(03:14):
I think also, I will say this, it is an
interesting game. And I know we're going to get into
this um a lot as we get to a lot
of the games that don't have any playoff implications. But
if they decide to check the score at halftime and
the Chiefs are absolutely destroying the Raiders, it will be
interesting to see what coach Lynn decides to do because
he's had a lot of guys that are banged up.

(03:34):
That's a lot of guys that have played a lot
of snaps and if they know there's no chance for
them to get that one, I would be very surprised
if they don't come out and rest everybody in that
second half. No question, they'll start strong, they'll in that
first half, but depending on any of the game will
be interesting maybe after halftime, less interesting exactly and less again.
You know, the Raiders aren't playing some pretty good football

(03:55):
as of late. If they can make a contest of
it against the Chiefs, which I would find extremely surprising
if it could, uh, then you will get a full
game out of them. But also the Broncos are real
banged up as well, and it looks like I mean,
Philip lindsay, I like, I was trying to not say
anything because you know, it's it's only Wednesday, so we're
not entirely sure. It seems like it's a pretty bad injury.
It seems like there's going to be a lot of problems.

(04:16):
I don't know, right, we don't know anything. So I'm
just saying this one, it's going to be Chargers looking
very solid and nice run game. It is a it
is a solid Chargers win. Yeah, and that's what it
should be, right, I mean, that's that's what everything on
papers suggests, especially because the Broncos are down a lot
of guys. I think they're on like their fifth string
tight end, back up to the backup to the backup,

(04:38):
second cornerback. The safety is a mess. They are. They
are a mash unit. But again, be careful, just because halftime.
I do think the Chargers will rest everybody in the
second half if there is no chance of them getting
the number one. So there we go. We like the
Chargers by a big number, but again be careful. But
look at the first half. Just look at the first
it's really all that matters at Ramps. Ramps will have

(05:00):
a chance where they could lose home field advantage and
a buy. If they lose and the Bears win, they
then slipped to the three. So there's a big one
for them. Expect them to play this entire game, which
is why you got such a big number. It is
Rams by ten yep, and I have the Rams winning
and of the simulations most likely score, I have a
thirty one tw which does reflect a full sixty minutes

(05:21):
of Rams trying. Sounds weird, but Rams effort so so
they win by more than ten and fifty one three
percent of the simulations though, so there is there is
the chance that you know, like if Girly is not
a percent or whatever. I'm less confident about the ten
than I am about the Rams win. Did you do

(05:41):
did you do some without Girly? I did right now
in the model. It's likely. So that's what you got
with it, because I won't be surprised if they don't
play him, especially how well C. J. Anderson played in
the way they used him as just kind of that
one cut, put your foot in the ground, hit an
interior gap runner and how effective it was. Um, you
know Jared Goff was all that great in that game

(06:03):
against the Cardinals. I mean it really was in Anderson game,
and he kind of gave them a dementias. That's something
that Girly doesn't even really do. He likes to attack
the edges. So I'll be interested to see if they
just play it safe and say, you know what, give
him give him another week off? Why why not? Yeah,
it's I think it's more likely based on what I've
been hearing. At least, I think it's more likely that
he plays in for some Now. Do I think he

(06:26):
plays of the snaps or the kind of high ninety
percent We've seen him play in some games this season. No,
but I think seventy. I put in seventy there just
based on the best intel I have. But again, it's Wednesday,
so if he has a setback in practice or something,
it could change things on Sunday. Forty Niners are not
like the front that you saw from Arizona. Arizona's defensive
front is nasty. They're they're a good defensive They have

(06:49):
a lot of they bring a lot of good pressure.
So it could be one where this this the forty
and front isn't as ferocious, I guess as the as
it could be. So I think, you know, thirty one
Oney is where I'm comfortable right now where I mean,
as spunky as the Forts have been to close the season,
I suspect that Sean McVeigh and companies don't want to

(07:10):
make sure they're right and they're not showing any any
leaks headed into the playoffs and obviously get that buy
in that home field at least through the first divisional round. Uh,
jest Patriots, huge for them, huge question jetson Patriots Pats
thirteen and a half and courtesy of the Philadelphia Eagles. Um,
I think that was never thought what it was. The

(07:31):
tweet was a great tweet, never was at we never
thought it would be in was like a clost game
Super Bowl. Yeah, hashtag st Nick. It was like post
Super Bowl hugs sort of between Time Brady and Nick Foles.
So for all of the struggles the and I'm kind
of using air quotes a little bit. Um as you
look at the screen struggles for the Patriots, They're gonna
end up as the two seed and it's light as

(07:52):
long as they win this game. And your model says
they do win this game by at least thirteen and
a half. Yeah, I have eighty three point one percent
of the time they win and the score that comes
up most often is thirty one seventeen, which is fourteen points.
And that happened so more than thirteen and a half
and fifty four point three percent of the simulations, which,
considering how big that number is is that's that's pretty like.

(08:12):
I was surprised that it was so high. I thought
it was gonna be like fifty point two if I
had to guess. I know, I'm putting me on the
spot a little bit here. How much how much have
things changed in your model for the Jets? Uh? Since
kind of this nice little run from Sam Donald and
the fact that he's actually operating what could be characterized
as a legitimate NFL offense right now, something that really

(08:33):
wasn't for about a five game span there. You know,
my best note on the Jets is right now, you know,
every season there's a worst to first team, right like
with the Bears this year, like there's always one last
year exactly, and so right now the Jets, look, they're
gonna need some help because it's a It's a factor
of like who is starting to look like the best

(08:54):
candidate for worst to first in their division? And right
now it might be the Jets because they've got a
ton of cap space, they've got a legitimate well again,
they have they've got flexibility. Now. The thing that they
have that the Browns, who had a ton of flexibility
last season had. The thing that they have that's different
is they have a quarterback that actually looks like he
has like a known factor. Right we didn't know what

(09:15):
we're gonna get with Baker. We didn't know if they
were going to get Baker. So the fact that they've
got the quarterback position and the safety position, they're very
strong at both safeties kind of the quite possibly the
most underrated position. I don't know. I think safety is
like maybe guard, garden, safety are pretty kind of underrated
positions in terms of how important they are, And the
Jets are really good at safety. So it's interesting. It's

(09:36):
interesting to me to see how their futures are looking.
So I'm going along on the Jets like a long
play on the Jets, but the short play and a half,
I mean, I know how you can figure out what
the Panthers are against the same Oh you mean you
mean modeling Kyle Allen versus potentially Teddy Bridgewater is not easy.

(09:57):
I was like, is that Kyle Allen? Is that a
high right? Back up Garrett Gilbert, Kyle Allen and the
Panthers at the Saints who need to actually they don't
need to win. They already have. They don't need to
do anything, so they could I guess that's what's interesting. Huh.
They can rest everybody if they want to, which is
what I would suspect they'll do. Um, don't be ridiculous
about this game by nine? So what do you do?

(10:19):
What do you got? Well, the way that you do
it is you look at the first half and you say,
let's get with good solid reps in let's see what
Sean Payton's history shows us about when he has, you know,
the potential to be a little bit more conservative and
what he does. And really this one is just merely
based on the strength of the Saints run game. So
backup situations for not necessarily full complement of place for everybody,

(10:43):
and kind of what are we going to see And
we're not gonna show any tricks like we've been seeing
we're not going to see creative quarterback uses with non
Drew Brees situations. I think this is the this is
the This might be the game where Teddy Bridgewater shows
you why he's going to be the prettiest girl at
the prom in the off season. A lot of people
are going to look at him to be their bridge
excuse my pun for next season, and this is going

(11:05):
to be why. So it's it's kind of like, that's
what's driving a seventy seven point four percent in New
Orleans win and a projected score of seventeen, Like that's
and the sureness on that I don't I don't love that, right,
Like I don't love the projections in this one again.
First half. Look for some nice solid reps, keep everything
in a nice flow, keep everyone from getting hurt. That's

(11:28):
what I think this game is all about, right, And
that's I think where I would chime in and say,
that's why I'm not going to be doing much with it. Well,
I think Christian McCaffrey, if you're if for some reason
you still have to play fantasy and you're playing this
wacky Week seventeen thing, I think Christian McCaffrey is about
its good of a pick for running back as possible.

(11:48):
So that's about it. I was so excited it made
my Skype that wobble there. Yeah, you're I was about
to say, um out of a game that does have
serious implications. The Texans will play host to the Jags.
The Texans there is a chance they could actually miss
the postseason with a loss. I believe that is the case. Yes,
they can actually still miss out on the postseason entirely.

(12:11):
I believe if they lose, uh to the Jaguars, you
could know, that's right, they cannot. The Steelers would have
had to have one, and that's exactly right. They would
have had to have beaten the Saints and the Texans.
But but they can still lose the division. They can
still lose the division and they can still like it.
Then they'd be traveling as opposed to hosting, you know,

(12:31):
on wild card weekend, which is big to you, right,
So big one and their favored by seven, Uh, you
like them to win by more than that in what
percentage of your simulations? So they win in seventy three
point to most likely score twenty six to seventeen, which
is nine points, and I have them more than a
touchdown in sixty five percent of the simulations. This is
a tough one for me, I know if because I

(12:53):
had the mentally I thought so too, and then I
looked into it. Don't know, they had ruled over last
week and the Offhans would have beat them, and it's
just like you, you know, you think about some of
those personalities in that room, and you've heard about cracks
kind of in the in the camaraderie of that team,
and it's like, alright, Texans gonna run them, you know,
run them all. We're worried about injuries. Yeah, I think
Tomarius Thomas, that's a that's a loss. Like the injuries

(13:16):
are the fear for me. For the Texans, they've been
putting people on I r like two people this week,
So that's that's terrifying. That's uh, it's I think it's
I don't know if Nines. I think it's a closer game.
I think for whatever reason, the Jags just kind of
watching the way they've performed the last couple of weeks,
I thought for sure they would mail it in. Just revolve.
Players are over it that everyone's going their different ways

(13:38):
and everybody hates everybody. Why is Blake Boardles, our quarterback,
all of that. Now, it just seems like that's not
maybe that's not the case. I mean, it's still a
really good defense. I mean, class Campbell looked amazing, but
a lot of people look amazing against the tackles for
the Dolphins. So it's hard to Yeah, um, give me
some good stats convinced me the Texans are fine. Okay,

(13:59):
So when you think about the Jags and how their
offense operates, it's all about the run more than any
you know, almost anyone else. Right, Texans defense is allowing
twenty two point three rushing yards program on first down
in the past four games, which is one point nine
yard per rush. They're the only team that's allowing sub
two yards per rush on first down over the past
four Just to give you some context, the Chargers allow

(14:21):
sixty rushing yards pergam and they're right about the average
for teams this season. So that's that's on first down obviously.
So you know, first down setting up good second down,
setting up good third down, especially on this team with
a shaky quarterback performance. Shaky quarterback production from whoever's quarterbacking
the Jags presumably bleak portals, right, but Ultimately, if you're

(14:42):
not allowing the team to run, you're not allowing one
for to work, it's gonna be very difficult for them
to score any points. That's that's the biggest thing that
came came from it. Yeah, I think the biggest thing
your counterpoint here's I'll give you the counterfep. Your counterboy
can say that Watson under pressure stinks. You can just
tell me Watson under pressure. I think it's his pass

(15:02):
rating decreases eighty one points, which is the biggest in
the NFL. That's a huge difference when he's under pressure
when he's not. He's been excellent under not under pressure.
In this season, not so good under pressure. He's been
sacked fifty six times, just the most in the NFL,
four more times in nine games this season. So that stinks.
That's very that's tricky, especially when you're saying Clais Campbell

(15:22):
this this defensive front does get to the quarterback. I
mean there, they provide a lot of pressure. So those
are the point counterpoint for me. But the biggest thing
for me is is your stability on first down. And
the Texans d doesn't figure to allow the Jags to
get stable on first down. I am so tempted to
take the Jags. I am what are the last three weeks? Right,

(15:43):
last three weeks for the Texans are losing to the
Eagles in Eagles team that's beat to hell, but still,
you know, showing some life as they have a chance
to maybe make it. They have magic, exactly the magic
of Nick Foles. They get humiliated at home by the
Colts and they should have lot. You know that that
game was essentially lost to the Jets. You know we're
and granted, I get it. You know, you show moxie

(16:06):
and you show some stick tuitiveness by winning late. Um,
and it's not easy to win in the NFL on
the road, no matter what, especially a Jets team that's
been playing a lot better as of late. But man,
I think it's a tough one. I guess what I'm
saying is, I'll I'll go ahead and file this into
my category of I'll take those those seven and feel
like it's a little bit closer than the model suggests.

(16:27):
This the big one, the biggest one of the week.
Winning your leaves that you're done. It is. It's Sunday
night Football's Colts. It tightens uh and right now on
the road. And I'm sure a lot of this has
to do with the health of Marcus Mariota, who we
don't know as of the time we're recording this on Wednesday,
the twenty six, whether or not he is going to
be the starter or not UM and I do think
there's just a smidge of a drop off from the

(16:48):
starter to the backup in this one as it sits
right now, it's cold side three on the road. What
do you got, I have Indianapolis. Okay, So just so
you know how I factored this in. I did for
sent Marcus Mariota back up. So this is a Mariota
driven projection for the almost most part. Right like, as

(17:09):
as close as I could, we haven't seen anything it
could potentially change. We gotta go back to Twitter. There's
been a lot of updates this week in general, but
this is a Marcus Mariota driven projection. Just putting that
out there. Okay, I have how do you how do
you adjust UM for for health? I guess I mean
if it's something like I get it, if it's if
it's Mariota that drives the projection, if it's Blaine Gabbett

(17:33):
that drives the projection. But what about Marcus Mariota, who's
coming off a stinger, who says the entire right side
of his body went numb, and he's still trying to
come back from that, and you try to do you
downgrade the quarterback by a certain percentage, Like I just
just maybe helped me, the idiot figure out how you're
not an idiot. This is This has taken a long
time to get down. But unfortunately for Titans fans, but

(17:55):
fortunately for modeling fans, we have many games worth of
non Marcus Mariota. We've seen how they've tailored the game
plan to adjust for coming back from injury. Now I
don't it's not all because he's had different injuries. It's
not necessarily a stinger specific projection, but it is a

(18:15):
nonhealthy Mariota projection. So it's easier for him. It's easier
for me to model him because he has played post injury,
not one enough that we can see some shifts. It's
not the same for every quarterback, but for him, we actually,
unfortunately again and I hate saying it because it sounds
like I'm like happy about it, but I'm definitely not.
We just have the information, so I modeled it in

(18:37):
there and you have the Colts. Anything else that you
want to share statistically, why you have that? Well, the
interesting thing about so the Colts their offense over the
past four games red zone touchdown percentage. Now, some people
can have like an inflated red zone percentage because they've
only been in the red zone two or three times, right,

(18:59):
but they actually are converting third down at fifty four
point three percent. So if you've got a high so
think of forty as being like a threshold to get
over on third down, and then anything above that is
like just great, right, and then you've got road zone
touchdown percentage in the past four their o line health
seems to be on the uptick. You're getting the Colts

(19:20):
in the upswing, you're getting the Titans. Unfortunately, more injuries,
more people going on, I are more adjustments to we
don't know about. You know, the quarterback the most, the most,
the biggest thing that influences the model. We have a
lot of health concerns there. That's tricky too. And you've
seen the Titans defense but be able to hold opposing

(19:41):
teams to eight point three points per game and allowed
in the past four games. It's the best in the NFL.
That doesn't figure to necessarily hold if you're thinking, Okay,
better field position not as good of quarterback play means.
Better field position means all these other things that mean
that points per game could go up. So you have
a decreased ability to potentially score with injury and an
increasibility to allow other people to score. And this team

(20:03):
with this crazy high third down and red zone percentage,
and that's what drives the model. Yeah, I can't decide
if I'm gonna ding the Colts or credit the Colts
for the performance last week against the Giants. You know
that they allowed themselves to fall into that kind of
hole because if they do against the Titan's gonna be
hard to come back against that defense, no question about that.
But at the same time, I credit him. You know,

(20:24):
not only did they have to dig out of a
first half hole and did so rather quickly in the
second half, but then you know, I have to run
a what final two minutes of the game, uh, you know,
to to keep their playoff holps alive. I just you know,
I look at it as quarterbacks, you give me, even
if he gave me a hundred percent Mariota versus a
hundred percent luck. It's not even close for me. Um,
you know, when a game that matters, you give me whatever.

(20:45):
He might be seventy Mariota against what is a very
good Colts defense as well. Um, I think they win
by more. I think it's a touchdown game to me.
I mean, I'm glad, Like I'm sitting here. I told you,
I'm like rooting for chaos, right, so, I like, I
want I want the scenario. It's like Colts and Patriots.
I want it. I want it bad. It's gonna need

(21:05):
two rounds to get to it, but it's looking more
and more likely we'll get to that in a minute.
But I was happy to see that it turned out
in my my chaos. My chaos theory is gonna most
likely hold for that It's going to be either the
Culture the Titans, and then no Steelers. Right so, I think,
you know what, so you're going back to my Jacksonville thing.
I think it ends up what it would be Chargers v. Texans,

(21:29):
and then it would end up being, uh, Colts vy Ravens.
Is how I believe it would shake out in the
first round of the playoffs. If we believe the Ravens
will beat the Browns. We're going to get to playoff
percentages exactly. We're just taking a first round matchups we'd
like to see, right, kind of fun to watch that. Uh,
fantasy futures, So normally, uh, through weeks sixteen, you would

(21:50):
be sharing some players that are gonna get touchdowns. There's
probably still a percentage. Granted it is a small percentage
of people that are playing fantasy this week, or maybe
those that want to play daily, which is fine way
to round out the season. If you love yourself some fantasy,
let's get some touchdowns. We got are you ready? All right?
I got Peyton Barber starting off. That's Peon Barber. He

(22:11):
is the he is the RB one down there. But
that's still yeah, there you go smattering him. We'll give
you golf claps for that. How about that great golf clap?
Any how about Kenyan Drake? Yeah, gas Buffalo. Okay, let's
do that. That works. I'll give you golflaps, golf claps,
thank you? Okay, Um, all right, how about David Johnson.

(22:32):
We didn't used to be spicy, but now it seems spicy.
Come on, you don't think that's spicy, which it was
a top five pick. Come on, I'm just saying, come on,
I don't know you know what I'm saying, Cynthia, you
can do better. You can do, you can do all right?
Have a Nick Chubb touchdown? Terrible? Look at Bill? Look
at Bill's body language. Bill's body language always looks like that.

(22:56):
Come on, come on, fine, how about last chance? Last chance?
This one's spicy touchdown. Okay, we're happy with that. There
you go. Okay, I made Mama Freeland happy the reddic touchdown.
There you go. A reminder, there is a company called

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(24:24):
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it is effective. Browns at Ravens Ravens obviously still playing
to make it into uh the a f C Championship lane.

(24:50):
If that made any sense, that was me vamping. I
was scrolling on my ship. The Ravens currently hold the
four seed um if they win, they will h in.
They could actually they could move up to three. If
the Texans lose, the Ravens could end up as the
three seed as opposed to the four. Right now, the
folks like them by six against the Browns. What do
you like? I like nineteen so two points. I have

(25:14):
Baltimore waitning in a convincing amount of the stimulation sixty
nine point eight. But it doesn't mean that I like six.
It means that I like to I think they can
lose this game. I mean, obviously they can, but I
think they lose this game. I think Cleveland wins. They
are it's I think. I mean, I'm on the side. No,

(25:34):
I've just said that's stupid. I've just talked myself out
of it, and in the span of four seconds, I'm
talking to myself out of it. It's stupid. Is it's
stupid because the Ravens are four point to eight yards
were planned first down in the past four games, because
that's what I like in three takeaways, first dounds huge
especially for I mean, look, Baker Mayfield has been good

(25:56):
with Reddy Kitchens. It was like all this, you know,
should they keep him? Should they not? Who knows? Bigger?
Deep passing has been good, but you know what a
lot of that is set up by what kind of
defense they're facing. The more the more they're allowed to
have the option to run or pass on this Ravens defense,
the better off they would be. But if they're not
getting good yards per play on first down, that is

(26:17):
going to be very difficult for Baker Mayfield. And it's
one thing to get excited about that Cleveland defense um
and the offense the way it's been operating, but it's
another thing to play the Ravens as opposed to the Bengals. UM.
So yeah, unless you can get Hugh jack on that
sideline for Baker to to deal with and and have
some motivation, I don't know if the I don't know
if the Browns could make that work, figure out a

(26:37):
way to put you Jackson on the Ravens side. I
think just like those Giants, the big heads, right exactly,
I um yeah, I think uh. I think I've now
talked myself out of it. In the span of about
three minutes. That Ravens defense is way too good um
for a Rickie quarterback to navigate. When they've got the
division on the line, they lose. Pittsburgh wins and and
they lose the division, so they gotta win this one.
I suspect they will. I'll just say, I mean it's

(26:59):
a press if. There's a couple of things about the
Ravens that are impressive. We talked about one earlier defensively, right,
their ability to tackle. It's the best tackling team in
the NFL. They are extremely physical. I mean they really
beat the snot out of you in a game. But
what wasn't really all that impressive to me, um was
kind of the offense. And understandable, right, it's it was
a hundred ninety yards in what four straight games going

(27:22):
into the Charger game. Um, but the second half adjustments
they made, I mean really just kind of shut them down.
That that offense down. And and this is the like
for people that ask the question of, oh, why can't
you run an offense like that for an entire season? Well,
I think you saw it in that Charger game. Because
you gump put the ball on the ground, you're going
to settle for threes. It is very hard to score
touchdowns because once that field shrinks, it's not as viable.

(27:46):
The read option, whether it's the read option diamond for
you know, running power out of the diamond. If it's
the bone, whatever it is, it makes it a lot
harder to score when that field shrinks and gets inside
that twenty and fifteen. And if you have an offense
and you know, credit again that defense for shutting their
Chargers offense down, but if you have an offense that
can put up let's say, three touchdowns, probably gonna lose.

(28:07):
And I think that's kind of the problem the Ravens
are running into. And that's when the Chargers finally made
their adjustments in the second half. Outside of a busted
play that passed to Andrews, there was really nothing that
the Ravens had going um. So that's I guess just
kind of projecting forward into the postseason. My concern for
that team against you know, some very good offensive squads,

(28:28):
and I'm curious to see how they look against the
Browns defense, because the Brown's defense kind of underrated linebackers.
I think they're better than they get credit for, and
I think that they've made some good adjustments given how
many players in their secondary have been hurt and the
Ravens aren't. You know, I'm not as concerned about their
passing game as I am about like stuff that happens

(28:49):
from the read option because that's you know, taking it
to the other side of of the ball and what
the Ravens do on offense. So I'm going to be
curious on this one to see how those linebackers impact
the effectiveness of Gus Edwards and Lamar Jackson. So that
that's something interesting to me to watch. Yeah, it'll, it'll,
you know, again, I think this one's good. It's a
good one to watch because the Ravens have to win
to win the division, but also to project forward and

(29:12):
what they might look like in the postseason, because you know,
you had one Gus Edwards run of forty four yards,
that one's last play to Andrews for seventy yards, and
that was really it if you take those two things
away from their offense. The Edwards was the first play
from scrimmage for the Ravens, uh, and that obviously was
the past Andrews was interesting, Yeah, because it was a
Mr Signmon and a busted tackle, so you're talking about

(29:33):
a giant chunk. And outside of that, I mean, heck,
I think they had a drive that was five minutes,
forty one seconds and eleven plays and it went thirty
one yards. I mean, it's it's crazy. It is. It
is absolutely crazy. Um, but you know when you have
that defense, that's what you do, right, you dominate time
of possession. I just and again this is probably for
next week. We can save this conversation. But no, no,

(29:55):
but I actually think, I actually think the Browns are
going to give us a lot. I think it's going
to be a close sites about that. I think obviously
with you. That's what the math has Bengal Steelers Steelers
by fourteen and a half. That seems like a lot,
doesn't it does. Yeah, I have Pittsburg winning an eight
percent of the simulations, but the score I have seventeen

(30:15):
July twelve points. Although, um, it's about twelve points or
less than fourteen and a half points in fifty five
point seven percent of simulation, So it's not like it's
this huge convincing thing, but I mean that's it's still
less than fourteen and a half. Yeah, that's a tough
one because you know the and that's one where you know,
you get to halftime and you can't help but look

(30:35):
up at the scoreboard and if you see that the
Ravens are putting it on the Browns, the players are
just like crud we're out. You know, let's say we're
not in the playoffs. It's over. Yeah, I'm not. This
this one isn't isn't a situation where I'm picking for
some like Bengals resurgence something like that. It's more like, again,
like the stability their run position really helps keep things

(31:00):
volatile and if you're if you're keeping with the stability
and where you can be smart to preserve. Look, if
the Steelers win, then the chance of the postseason, like
that's their way in if they win. So they've got
to they've got a theoretically win. Again, they could look
up at the at the scoreboard. So again I would
focus on the first half in this one, and I
would think a convincing Steelers first half, but maybe not

(31:21):
so convincing second half. Focus on the half slows it down,
slows it not running the marathon you run in the half.
Focus on the half and half like one. Uh, Eagles
at Redskins. Eagles gotta win and they need some help.
They are favored by six and a half. And you've
got what I have, um Philadelphia winning in sixty six
point five percent of the simulations score that I have one.

(31:45):
So that's six points at six and a half points
UM not super convincing. Six and a half UM as
the magic number in fifty point eight percent of the simulations,
So Washington with a head start not super convincing in
this one. UM all utimately what boils down to the Eagles.
So I'm not going to give away my playoffs situation yet.

(32:06):
But it's not magic with Nick Foles. It's an offense.
That is what I'm going to use. The wordist right
like selfless, right, like you're you're When you talk to
Doug Peterson, who's been on the pot, he's wonderful. When
you talk to all of the people there about what's
working what's not, it's the fact that there's not there's
no forcing, there's no trying to get someone anywhere or

(32:28):
numbers and there you know that no one's complaining about
passes being pulled their pushed their way or not. So
it's it's just a little bit more of UM like
equal and they're just trying to get first downs. It's
a little less worried about UM their own self selfishness,
if that makes sense, makes sense makes sense to me.
What about Swearinger, did you run all the simulations obviously

(32:50):
without him, and did that have any sort of impact hisn't.
It did have an impact. Again, the position he plays
a car, the space on the field that he occupies
is a very important space. It's interesting because what the
model can't factor and is kind of what you read
between the lines about when they say things like, um,
you know not it's like the team chemistry or whatever.

(33:13):
It's clearly not. He didn't get let go because they
because of performance, right, flapping his gums right. So I
don't know if that was causing not good feelings in
a lot of I don't. I can't model that the
chemistry variable, right, So that to me is more it's
just about space on the field and replacement, replacing the

(33:33):
space on the field that he occupies. So it did
go down with that to the Raiders and Chiefs. To
the Raiders we go and the Chief's thirteen and a half,
coming off a tough physical game against Seattle, they lose.
They gotta win this game for the one seat, so
certainly supremely motivated to UH, to get out with a
win and also to maybe get back on track. I

(33:55):
mean they lost to a three UH to the Chargers
and to the Seahawks. So actually two in a row
right now, two in a row now to be the
Charters and Seahawks. And you would assume for all of
Andy Reid's uh detractors that hey, it's a lot of
fun during the regular season, but playoffs come around, and
uh Andy reads Andy Reid, so certainly want do we

(34:15):
get if they if they get the like if they
get the one seed, and then it's at home. Isn't
like Andy Reid coming off a bye at home? Because
you know, we love those stats. I think unfortunately, I
think unfortunately for Andy, it would be here we go playoffs.
Let's see, let's see if Andy does it again where
he tears up the league all regular season long and

(34:35):
then as a team like the Titans roll into town
that squeaks in on six different tiebreakers and absolutely shuts
his offense down. I mean, that's why I think this
is just a beating. I think this is a you know,
I think it's more than I've touchdowns kind of thing.
He's my favorite quarterback this week, and if you were
going to play fantasy of any sort. But anyways, I

(34:56):
have Kansas City winning in eighty three point nine percent
the simulations the score. I have his thirty one nineteen
just twelve points, not quite thirteen and a half, but
again it's thirteen and a half for Oakland and fifty
point four percent of the simulations. So part of this
is the getting back on track thing. Like something that
I've been spending a lot of time on is how
many different types of plays you call and when, so

(35:18):
you can see like you kind of have two ends
of the spectrum. So the Chiefs called a lot of
different offensive plays in the beginning of the season, and
then maybe they put too much on film to use,
like you know, football terms, and then you have kind
of the opposite end of the spectrum where it's like
the Rams, who also had a high powered offense, but
they kind of ran the same play, but like maybe
to the left instead of the right, and it's all

(35:39):
eleven so like only three wide receivers on the field
all the time. And maybe that's something people caught up
to as well. So it's interesting to see like when
play calling kind of what's the right balance of like
showing enough and not showing too much. And because Bill
Belichick does it too right all of September, we don't
really see much that's his preseason and then we see
a lot and then we don't see adjustments like so,

(35:59):
I'm I'm curious to see if this time with Andy
with the quarterback, he wants the spread offense that he wants.
Damian Williams had some fumble issues that probably were really
big factors in that Seattle game or the in the
Seahawks game, so that I mean, get that under control.
I'm I'm very curious to see in this one. And
the reason the model says only twelve as opposed to

(36:21):
even more convincing win is because I do have the
I do have getting that run game solidified and fortified
and focusing on run specific plays as being a little
bit more important in this one to get those turnovers
in the run game and the you know, filling the
the void left by a departed running back. That's why
it is a little look. The offense isn't as good

(36:44):
without Kareem Hunt, I mean, playing and simple, it's just
not It's not even close, um Man, whether it was
Spencer where Damian Williams um and that was something they
were able to lean on when they needed to, because
I think what kind of is overlooked in Kansas City
it's not a good offensive line, I mean, and it's
also an offensive line is down to guys um and
then it's one of the worst. I'm now granted, with
Eric Berry back, this could all change is he continues

(37:05):
to kind of shake that rust off and gets better
and better. But secondary has been terrible, um, and you've
seen really good teams take advantage of that. And now
all of a sudden, when you can't be bounce, Holy Holy,
the penalties are terrible for this team. So that's all
over the place. They get penalized, their penalties, and especially
penalties that kill drives or allow other teams to continue

(37:28):
their drives. So penalties that negatively impact them are there
through the roof. There's they're they're so high it's unreal.
They're just lucky Patrick Homes can keep scoring. Yeah, that's
the penalties you're talking about. It's like when you look
at them too, it's it's all yardage because it's secondary penalties.
It's past interference penalties, huge penalties, and and just kind
of I think the best way to maybe just to

(37:50):
kind of put a button on it for me, you know,
to kind of wrap the Chiefs up, is you've got
one of probably the three best interior rushers in the
league creating pressure at you know, not Aaron Donald historic rates,
but pretty darn close to it and Jones, And then
you've got one of the best edge rushers in DeFord
And both of those guys are putting considerable pressure on quarterbacks.
And they still have some of the worst passing statistics

(38:10):
defensively in the league because their secondary cannot cover even
for the brief couple of seconds that they need to
with that good of a pass rush um. And I
think when you combine that by having this high flying
offense that's scoring you know, in quick bursts as opposed
to long, grind it out eleven to fifteen play drives,

(38:31):
that front line is now getting tired and that secondary
is getting worse and worse and worse as the game
is going on. And I was kind of hoping d
J swear and Drew would end up there. But anyways, Yeah,
that wasn't gonna happen. You knew he was going to
get claimed, uh putting a claim for him. Jay Gruden
cuts him. John Gruden puts a claim. That's so look
where he went. He went to the team with the
number one claim position, in Arizona. And that's well, and

(38:53):
that's our next game. There you go, cards at Seahawks.
Seahawks punched their ticket without victory over the Chiefs, their
favored by fourteen, actually thirteen and a half, and you
have them winning by so I have seventy nine percent
of the simulations they win. The score I have is fourteen,
So technically I'm Arizona, you know, with thirteen and a
half fifty two point four percent of the simulations. Now

(39:14):
this and Bill, you're sitting there with terrible body language. Again, Um,
this is a game that has zero bearing on anything
I believe. Correct the Seahawks are locked in to the five.
They can't. They are not. You're shaking your head of me.
See ah, yes, so there you go. All right, so
we got an impact. Yeah that's good. You're there. No

(39:35):
wonder your body language is so terrible because you're correcting
me on something that should be completely obvious. Screwed. He
spends a lot of time on that. Uh, this one.
The reason for it. Seahawks best run. Cardinals really really
really bad against the runs. So it's a slower game,
you know, slower from a standpoint of scoring. So that's
why it's the thirteen points. But run game stability for

(39:55):
the Seahawks is the reason for that. I'm not gonna
spend too much time on it because I don't think
that's that exciting. But which one is it going to be?
How much? Oh I'm saying I'm not. I'm not saying
which running back is gonna be? Right? Like, maybe this
is the rostot panty game. Maybe this is the you know,
like Chris Carson who knows, like just you know, roll
some dice and that's the running back they're gonna use.

(40:17):
So Seahawks win, they lock into the five. If they lose,
they could slide to the six um And anyway, I
don't need to get into that. We'll do that with
the playoffs scenaris. Cowboys are Giants. Giants are favored by
six and a half because the Cowboys are expected to
rest everybody because I mean, they said they're not going
to But I would argue that because pretty beat up

(40:40):
all year, right, And I would I would imagine because
you're seeing this number, even though Jason Garrett says something
like and I think the quote was like anyone who's
healthy is going to be played, is expected to play
full speed. I just don't know if I think the people,
the magic people who make this magic number, I don't
think they're buying it. They're not buying it from him.
I don't want to, um, I don't want to just
to take all the work that you've done and throw

(41:01):
it out the window. But this is not a game
you should even think about playing. This is this is
a game to stay away from. Listen. I do it
for every game because that's the that's the like, that's
what I gotta do. That's my job. Do I care
about No, I just don't know how you would. I
don't know what what you punch in to, you know,
to all the factors you need to sort out, because

(41:22):
who knows? I mean, is it a quarter? Is it
a half? Is it? Is it not at all? Is it?
You know? You look at history and you look at
the first half, because just look at it, like what
does Jason Garrett do in situations like this? And ultimately, look,
I have Dallas winning fifty six point six the score
that it projects who whatever? But again, they may play nobody,

(41:43):
you know, they may decide no, why why why would
we put someone in their first snap? Exactly? I don't
want anybody out there. God forbid, they get hurt when
there's nowhere for them to go. This could be this, right,
this could be like maybe that's the most poring one.
I don't know to the ones we call straight dogs.
You like the underdog to win the game. Bike means
Bears at Vikings, Vikings by five. This is another one

(42:04):
where the Bears you would assume, are going to start
the game off trying to win, hope the forty niners
can help them out so they can move up to
the two, get a buy uh and a home game
in the divisional round, and not have to deal with
a wild card. But then again, if it gets away
from the forty nine early, you're talking about the potential
to play a very competitive game against what very well

(42:27):
could end up being your first round opponent. And I
don't know how that all bears out in your model.
I have no idea what you're punching in to figure
this one out. So look, okay, this is this is
how I read this one. This one I also care
about the first half. Mostly they have a very young quarterback.
He's not a rookie, but he's a rookie in this system.
He's you know, that they're having a good offensive season.

(42:50):
The way that I look at this one is if
it were all if it were a veteran quarterback, it
would be easier to model if it were this defense.
And you know, even you know a guy like case Keenum,
who's obviously that's confusing because I know he played for
the Vikings and he's now in Denver. But if it
were someone like that with a good deal of history
with it, it would be easier to model. This one

(43:12):
comes down to the fact that do we believe Matt
Naggy in his first year being the head coach, does
he want to get Trabinsky kind of like more reps
or does he want to save him because this could
be a like you know, Daniel Hunter, Everson Griffin, this
could be of a you know, horizontal game for him.
So the way that I figure it is, I really

(43:33):
focus on the first half. I look at coaching, their
coaching tendencies from the trees that they've come from, the
Naggy tree, and you want to see, Okay, I believe
and lucky to talk to some people in these organizations
right that that first half. If something wacky happens and
the Bears have two pick sixes and they go up
by fourteen. Then we see nothing interesting from this game, right,

(43:54):
Like they just kind of they like stay keep everyone healthy,
and keep everything kind of rolling. But I do think
it's going to be more competitive. The Vikings are playing
for their playoff lives here, so I do think that
Chicago defense is going to show us more than I
would have originally thought just looking at this game on paper. Right,
So I have Chicago winning fifty the simulations, I have
a three point game. So technically, because I have Chicago

(44:18):
winning and everyone else likes the Vikings or those other
magic people like the Vikings, So I'm on the side
of Chicago pretty convincingly sixty percent of the simulations. So
for me, it comes out to the fact that there's
no there's no need to factor in tons of rest
for the Bears. It's kind of a nice solid first
half and control the second. This, uh ye, I guess

(44:39):
for me, I almost think of it almost in the
exact opposite terms, right. I think of it as, Okay,
I don't care about Week seventeen, I care about week
one of the playoffs. Do I want to play the Vikings?
Do I want to play the Eagles? Do I really
want to take on the defending Super Bowl tra So
you could technically also get saddled with the Seahawks too,
if they they're just scenario where write you could get

(45:03):
saddled with him too, which I don't know if that's
I don't think that. I think it's the least ideal
option for them. Yeah, And that's I guess, assuming I
don't suspect the Seahawks are gonna lose to the Cards,
to a Cards team that looks as though they have settled.
But it looks like a team that's settled into that
number one overall pick that is content to take Nick

(45:25):
Post at number one. They've got their quarterback for the future,
they'll have their defensive end for the future. There's nothing
for them to gain by winning that contest. And I
wouldn't be surprised if they instruct folks to sit guys,
and Seattle is going to make sure they win that
game so they get the better seed there. I just
don't I mean, you tell me, I guess I'm asking
you to maybe jump ahead, and I don't know if
you've done that yet in your projections. You know, what

(45:48):
does the model say the bear should do? Because if
I'm the Bears, I don't want to show the Vikings anything.
I don't want to bust my tail, lose a game
and then have to go back and play that that
team again in the first round of the playoffs, especially
a division of own it that knows all my tendencies,
all my weakness is better than anybody else, Like Naggie, you,
Doug Peterson. They have some some things in common to
right right, like like, I don't know which if there

(46:11):
is a better road for them, you know, I don't
I don't know if it's better for them to play
the Vikings, a team that they know in their division,
or is it better for them to play the defending
Super Bowl jams who have now knocked off the Rams,
you know, played at a knocked off a Texans team
that then lost the two seed, and going to the
playoffs with a ton of momentum, the belief that they
are okay, we're good now, you know, we weather the storm.

(46:32):
I don't know what the answer to that is. And
I think I'm sure they've got people, you know, people there.
I'm sure they have people that are modeling all of
that and saying, hey, here's our better path. This is
what we're actually probably better off doing. I have I
ran it with both UM. I gave them a home
home game obviously, and I ran it with Eagles, and
then I ran it with UM the Vikings and they

(46:52):
actually beat the Eagles more often they do. So part
of there's two reasons. Well, one the Eagles O line
we saw just Peter Jason Peters is practicing, expected to
play good. Okay, great, that's helpful, But it really comes
down to the fact the Bears defense against the Eagles offense.
There we've seen magic. Absolutely, but in this model, there's

(47:17):
my questions. It's just a better it's just a better man.
So yeah, go beat the Vikings, get the Eagles in
the first round, and uh, and you're happy. And that
means we should see a competitive Bears team that's been
really really good all season, especially on defense. Just focus
on the first I shouldn't probably shortened my commentary. My
commentary simply ask you, hey, what's the model to say?
Who should they play? There? You go, yeah, I mean

(47:39):
that's what I got now this one. Or maybe I
was just so long winded so we didn't have to
talk about the Dolphins at the Bills Yep, that's exactly
what we did. Bills are favored three and a half,
and you like gonna be weather there. I have Miami
winning the simulations, convincing a whopping of the simulations to
score one point. Just don't run pulling Iron Maid and

(48:04):
run for the hills, all right, Falcons at box. I'm
not even gonna ask you to give me anything on that.
Another one, Buccaneers favored by one is the total what
do you like? I like Atlanta to win and a
whopping fifty six per twe of the simulations stay away,
And I know that off the top of the pot,
I gave you that there's gonna be a lot of

(48:24):
points in the Packers and Lions match up at lambeau Field.
But just to kind of go over that one, I
have the Packers, who by the way, there are seven
and a half point favorites, and the magic number in
this one is forty. So I have the Packers winning
this one, so a little closer than other people might think,
but more total points because I have fifty total points

(48:46):
in this one. Why Well, in the past three games,
the Packers have scored the most points in NFL. They've
averaged over twenty seven, so that's where that comes from.
And also, by the way, just to kind of level set,
I have Green Bay win in sixty seven point six
percent of the simulations, just so you know, this game
is for almost nothing. So it's really kind of one
of those like Aaron Rodgers just doesn't quit. I think

(49:08):
Davonte Adams, if for some reason you're still playing fantasy,
he's a good pick in this one. But overall, I
think this is a let's score some points, let's not
play a ton of defense. Let's kind of get you know,
move on to next season in this matchup. Alright, now
that those are out of the way, let's get to
your confidence picks. Let's get you back to a three
and zero week on your confidence pick. What are your

(49:29):
three top top three? Alright, we're still going points in
Green Bay in Detroit like that one. Anything that's high,
that's what we're gonna do. Got it, got it? Um? Okay,
I Like I'm just making sure I'm picking the highest
one here, because you know, we get that's all we
want that we want the models number high, highest percentage.
What's our best what's our best guess? Yeah, so you

(49:51):
want to stick with something that has some something of consequence, right,
like do whatever your confidence, pa, Hey, let's go with
be a freelance confidence picks. They're not mine, they're not bills.
And though he's looking down his nose at you, judging,
definitely looking at it. Um, let's go with more points
than you might expect. Also in Houston, so Houston and Jacksonville.

(50:11):
More points than you might expect in that one, because
that one has a nice high percentage. And I think
that we're going to go on the side of Dallas
and no that there's not a who knows what's going
to happen. I'm gonna talk me out of it. I
know what I know, but I'm going with the highest one.
I just want to make sure that I'm not a
liar here, you know what. Um Let's go with fewer

(50:33):
points than you might imagine in Kansas City, in Oakland
all all interesting, Green Bay, Detroit more Houston, Jacksonville less
Kansas City, Oakland, that those three are solid. Last chance,
I'll let you change I'm not change it, alright. How

(50:54):
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game theory to save five bucks on your sofa. This
is the game theory and money playoff probability portion of

(52:24):
our pod Slash video Pod, and we are taking a
look at the n f C playoff percentages. To start here,
Cynthia her model, Cynthia Freeland, our head of predictive analytics,
stand Bill Smith, our major research Maven uh is here
to join and help us make sense of all of this.
So let's start with the NFC and Cynthia. We have
five slots that are already locked up in terms of

(52:46):
who's going to get into the playoffs, so Saints, Rams, Bears, Cowboys,
Seahawks are all in. Still the possibility for a little
bit of movement in the seedings, but let's start with
who's in, who's not in yet that six spot and
where the Eagles and Vikings are as it stands today,
Well today, because I have the Eagles winning and the

(53:09):
Vikings not winning, So the Bears beating the Vikings, the
Eagles edge out the Vikings fifty four point six percent
to forty five point four percent, So by the slimmest
of margins, the Eagles just barely make it. And that
is also a product of you um positioning the Bears

(53:31):
as a team that is going to play their starters
the entire game play to win that game against the
Vikings and not rest guys, if they look up and
see a Rams Rams team that is throttling the forty
niners at halftime, correct, I don't know if they'll necessarily
I mean, look, maybe they jump off to maybe the
Bears defense has some crazy things like a pick six

(53:52):
or something that really changes in turnovers, because we've seen
Kirk Cousins be susceptible to turnovers before. So if we
see that, maybe they don't play their starters the full
four quarters. It's maybe it's not a huge win, but
we see Bears controlling the scenario, controlling the situation because
playing the Vikings that third time versus playing the Eagles,
which is most likely to happen given kind of the positioning.

(54:15):
So the Bears are most likely to end up as
the third seed. I get the Rams could potentially lose,
but it's slow, like very small percentage of the simulations
that that comes up. So Bears most likely to be third,
in which case they most likely be deciding between Dent deciding,
but it seem they were gonna be the Eagles or
the Vikings in the first round. To look, if they
wanted the Vikings, just lose the game and you're guaranteed

(54:35):
to face the Vikings unless the Rams lose to the
forty Niners, which you do not have in your model.
You have them winning handily over the forty Niners, So
the Bears have a chance to kind of pick their opponent,
and looks like you have them selecting the Eagles to
play in the wild card round at home. Uh in
the first round of the playoffs. Yeah, and look, we've
seen the Eagles have two amazing wins. We saw you know,

(54:56):
Nick Foles. Everyone thinks he's like, maybe it's a Christmas thing,
you know, St Nick, It's great, But ultimately with the Eagles,
it comes down to the fact that did you have
that critical massive injuries, especially to the to their secondary
and that will come around at some point, right, Like
you've had the changes from the Nick Foiles Voles style offense,
which has kept them scoring higher points per game, higher

(55:16):
efficiency on converting you know, new first downs necessarily not
necessarily on third down, but first and second down, yielding
a new third down or a new first down more
often and more points being scored. So that's great, but ultimately,
when teams are just gonna have to start throwing, and
I'm by no means saying that Mitchell Robiski is the
best thrower in the in the league. But when you
start to see that happen in or you get behind,

(55:37):
that's going to be a situation where it's really difficult
for the Eagles to kind of come back from. So
to hop in there, you're saying the Bears, try to
beat the Eagles, and that is what they should do.
You say before, try to be the Vikings in Week seventeen,
because that's best for them in the wild card round.
You think they have a better chance to beat the
Eagles in the wild card round than they would the

(55:59):
Vikings playing them a third time, correct, I think, especially
especially if you look at like look like the Vikings
the first time they didn't have all of their pieces
on defense. So now we get the Vikings the second time.
Their defense is intact. Their defense has been playing really
well lately. They're on the uptick from that defense. You
really want to go and try to roll the dice
the third time that's very difficult. They know each other

(56:21):
very well. They know each other's tendencies. You know, divisional
opponent is a little bit easier. Now you will say
that there is that the Matt Naggie knows what the
Doug Peterson offense. Of course, they came from the same
they have this the cover from the same cloth. They
have the they have the same philosophies or at least
similar ones. They've worked together. So it's a that's an
interesting matchup as well because they do know each other's tendencies.

(56:44):
But that you know, with the way the Bears defense operates,
projects a more convincing win against the Eagles this time
that it would be against Minnesota two weeks in a row.
So let's shift two percentages to win the Super Bowl
prior to the postseason starting. And your favorite of the
NFC is st okay. Why well, home field advantage is

(57:05):
a huge deal. That bye week is a huge deal
to get healthy. It's also kind of regroup and figure
out their old line is really where I'm looking at health.
That's they've had some some you don't want to lose
any of your Ryan ram Check has been playing awesome
and him potentially being injured and having some time to
rest up is a gigantic deal for this offense. So

(57:25):
kind of one thing to look at there is their
old line health everything for this team, especially the center
of their old line. So you know, no Ram check
plays on outside. But you know what I'm saying, like,
the more they can solidify that and be healthy there,
that's what really drives their percentages. And you have them
okay even as a solid favorite over the Rams, then
drop all the way down almost six percent fewer at

(57:47):
eleven point four and then the Bears at ten point three.
Why sort of the Rams and Bears so close the
Bears have so when you can run on a team,
you have a much better chance of winning. When people
have beaten their Rams, they've just run right at the
center of that line where they're very vulnerable, their defensive
line where they're very vulnerable, and they've been able to
control the game. They Rams give up way too many

(58:09):
yards to the middle of their defensive line. That's a
that's a hard thing to overcome when especially when you're
facing playoff teams, especially playing teams that can this is
to win the Super Bowl, not necessarily, you know, first
you gotta make it there but then to win. And
the Bears defense has shown a lot more fortitude when

(58:29):
it comes to stopping the run. And I'm worried about
the Bears secondary. They've had some injuries to that secondary,
but run stopping has been far more predictive in playoff
history than you've seen, Like look at the Ravens the
year that they made it as a wild card. That's
kind of a good comparable if you're thinking about it
like that. All right, so that is your uh. And

(58:50):
and if you just go behind that, you have the
Cowboys at six, Seahawks at three. UM, so a pretty
dramatic drop off. I guess the Cowboys at six is
in that big of a drop off. I mean when
you're talking about the Bears at ten. But again, when
you have the Saints all the way up at seventeen,
especially knowing how good they are at the Superdome. UH,
certainly quite the odds to overcome if the Cowboys are

(59:12):
not only going to make it, but win, as you mentioned. Okay,
let's shift to the a f C playoff percentages. Cynthia Bill.
We have four teams that are guaranteed to take part
in the postseason. The Chiefs right now at the one spot.
The Patriots, after the Texans lost last week to the Eagles,
will get to buy if they win out and they
are at the two. The Texans currently are going to
make the playoffs. We don't know. They still could lose

(59:33):
the division, but they are in the postseason, as are
the Chargers right now as the number one wild card team.
What else are we watching here in week seventeen, Well,
it's about seating here. So I do have the Texans
winning and taking that number three. I have the Baltimore
Ravens in the four. They have a seventy three point
nine percent probability of making the playoffs, which that's reflects

(59:53):
the fact that they're winning this week, and so they
win and they control their destiny based on their win
last week here in Los Angeles, US. And then I
actually in the six seeds, so that makes the Chargers
the five seed, and then I have the sixth seed
as the Indianapolis Colts two percent of the simulations, which
means that I have them beating the Titans, who are
my number seven forty four point eight percent. And then

(01:00:15):
on the way outside looking in are the Steelers point
one percent of the simulations as the number eight, so
in about a quarter of the time they end up
overcoming the Ravens. So, Cynthia, you have the Ravens with
a chance of beating the Browns this week, but they
have a seventy four percent chance of making the playoffs.
Where does that sort of five percent difference come in.

(01:00:36):
So if the Chargers don't I'm sorry, if the Ravens
don't win and the Steelers don't win, then the Ravens
still go. So that little net four percent ish reflects
the fact this the off chance that both of them
don't win. But both the Steelers and the Ravens are
heavily favored in my model this week. But if sometimes

(01:00:57):
if something weird happens then and both of them don't win,
the Ravens still go. So that's what the four percent reflects,
that small difference. And then something you went into in
detail on the pod that I think you should share
here is with the Colts Titans game, the percentage of
SIMS that you ran with Marcus Mariota is the starting
quarterback percentage with Blaine Gabbert as the starting quarterback. And

(01:01:19):
then also because you have a pretty healthy chunk of
Marcus Mariotta playing and not one percentage of those simulations
that you were able to run for the Titans and
how you came up with the Colts getting out with
a win there in Nashville. Yeah, So unfortunately for Marcus Mariota,
he's played injured many times, so we have a decent
sample size to see a not Marcus Mariota. So I

(01:01:40):
did a Marcus Mariota so, which just means he's the
potential that in the shift in their game plan, maybe
more running place, maybe fewer deep passes, things that would
reflect a more conservative game plan to try to give
them the optimal opportunity to win. So given that, that's
what really drives the Colts, especially with their offensive ifficiency

(01:02:00):
over the past four games, it was called red zone
touchdown percentage. That's really high, especially considering they're also converting
over of third downs into first downs, so they're getting
new set of downs and they're also being effective in
terms of scoring. So that solidifies the Colts win. I mean, look,
it's not the most convincing win in my model, but

(01:02:22):
that's what really drives the Colts over the Titans in
this matchup this week. And also if you could, and
I think you have all the numbers in front of
you and put you on the spot here do it?
Do it? Of those of those four guaranteed slots right now? Chiefs, Patriots, Texans,
and I guess you don't have to talk about the
Chargers just because well I guess they would have to
win right in order to get something to shake up?
Which of those games has the highest percentage likelihood of

(01:02:46):
being an upset? I know they're all projected to get wins,
the Chiefs, the Patriots, Texans, and the Chargers, But which
one has perhaps the least convincing number where you might
see the Texans, let's say, jumped to the two, or
the Chargers jump to the one. Is there one that's
ahead of all the others. So here the answers know

(01:03:07):
that they're all just heavy, you know, likelihood to get victories.
And that's that's a fine answer as well. I just
didn't know if there was one in there. You know,
maybe the Jags knock off the Texans and now they're
a wild card and the Colds end up being an
FC South champions or how if there's any if there's
any variable um that that suggests that maybe something like
that has a higher percentage of happening. So both Kansas

(01:03:28):
City and New England are more than three percent of
the simulation winners, so that's super convincing. Huge. Um, Houston
is ten percent less than that, so seventy three, which
is a significant win. But you rarely, if ever get
something over eighty percent, let alone eighty three percent in
my model. So that's seventy is considerably considerably worse. So

(01:03:54):
that's the one that could happen, and if it doesn't,
you'll have the Colts going back to and the Chargers
are seventy point five. But that's which, But that's kind
of like a little like they need some help for
some other crazy things to happen. Crazy things to happen
will be the Raiders beating the Chiefs in Kansas City,
which would certainly qualify as extremely crazy. This is a

(01:04:14):
crazy thing to happen in a in a week seventeen.
And then you have the Colts going back to Houston
for the third time. These two teams taken on one
another wild card weekend, and of course the Colts in
this position because they were able to dominate the Texans
at Houston in week fourteen. Yeah, that one's gonna be
really exciting if that happens. Right that old line. I'm
watching that old line. The Coats line is really like

(01:04:36):
something to for me to big time monitor because if
you look at the difference between the coltsal line and
the Texans old line, it's considerably different considering, you know,
Deshaun Watson has been sacked fifty four times, which is
it's just that, all right, let's go to a percentage
just to win the Super Bowl? What do we have?
Who's on top? So this one's a little closer than
the NFC of the Chiefs on top thirteen. Next up

(01:04:58):
the Patriots with eleven point seven. Getting that week off
for them is a huge deal. The Texans are the
next at seven point five, and then the Ravens because
they're right now slotted to be in the four seed
six point eight, followed by the Chargers five point three,
and then the Colts three point two. Titans and Steelers
have below one percent, but that's because right now they're
not forecast to be in. So this past week the

(01:05:21):
Patriots were scheduled to be the three seed. Houston loses
to Philadelphia, they jump back up to two. In your model,
they go from an eight point eight percent chance back
up to an eleven point seven percent chance. Is that
simply because of the bye for them, or did you
see something over the past week that caused you to
like the Patriots or your model wild like the Patriots
a little more. Well, I did go back to run

(01:05:43):
it to see what had happened had the Texans one,
So had the Texans beat the Eagles, to see what
would happen to the Patriots just then, because it would
line everything up a little bit better, and that numbers
down like under seven, so they that would that would
have been a considerable difference. So let's think seven versus
almost twelve. That's a huge difference. So one, it's obviously

(01:06:03):
it's easier to win two games than it is to
win three games, just no matter what. And then two
between health at their position and they don't have They're
not very deep in certain positions and their defensive linebackers.
So the health, increased health and fewer games both combined
to do that. That's a big difference of five for them. Hush.

(01:06:23):
And by the way, from that five and a half percent,
the Chargers slipped from being the favorite in the a
f C all the way down to five or the
second favorite, I should say all the way down to
five percent. And I'm assuming that's a product of them
losing to the Ravens, because your model had the Chiefs
projected to lose to the Seahawks, and that would have
given the Chargers the number one seat, number one seed.

(01:06:43):
So not only home field advantage is now a big
driver of that, but also a by So again, three
games is harder to win than two games. And if
you're traveling and you're going, you know, presumably where where
were this one? And so I'm bad at like going
out like exactly right now, they go to Baltimore. If
you know, if your model holds Baltimore winds, the Chargers

(01:07:05):
stay in the five, the Ravens get the four, and
they would travel to Baltimore and try to take on
a team. I know that was I got caught up
there Bimore. You're going all the way east. You're like
these are, and that's the weather. Like there's a lot
of there's a lot of things to factory in there
that make things worse, right, So I'm I'm bad at

(01:07:25):
like the the whole um. Like look like I can
tell you if the weather is bad if I can
tell you a lot of different things once it happens,
so it's like a history of what has like if
you're looking at weather, for example, in any of these
like the Patriots getting advantage here, the Chiefs getting advantage here.
This one's more interesting. Obviously the Texans play inside. That's
not as compelling because it's not as different. But I

(01:07:47):
can tell you historically, can like look back and look
at the weather through history. There's plenty of data on
that one too. So it's not good for the Chargers
have to go cold and east. They just one in
Kansas City, so that's good for them. Now looking at
the Ravens, they more than doubled their chances with that
win against the Chargers two point nine percent last week
to six point eight percent this week. Is that because

(01:08:08):
maybe they solidified their spot in the playoffs. Is that
because they defeated another playoff team or do you take
sort of the possibility of a rematch with the Chargers
into account considering they just won that game. So it's
less about the rematch with the Chargers specifically yet, because
this one so to win the super Bowl, so you first,
you gotta they bigger jump in this one was the

(01:08:30):
fact that last week we kind of had this whole
scenario where it was like, if you added up the
end of the a f C North teams, there was
like only a little bit of surplus for anyone to
end up in the as the wild card. So last
week was really when they wrapped up pretty much. They
put themselves in poll position to be to win the
division and kind of kick the Steelers out. So that

(01:08:51):
was more what that reflected in this one. A rematch
would stink. That's always harder to play a team again
in such a oor amount of time. You see it again.
You see it always with divisional opponents. The more you
know about people, that's all. Really, that's all really interesting.
But the biggest driver from last week to this week
was just simply a way, way, way, bigger chance to

(01:09:12):
make the playoffs. Alright, as we wrap, I do want
to point out because this is what talking heads do.
You know what, I'm not gonna stray from my predictions
at the start of the season. Well you will stray, Cynthia,
because yours is all math. But your math at the
start of the season projected Saints Chiefs, and right now
your playoffs just see the Chiefs defense to play a
little better so that I can, like not they can

(01:09:34):
stop sweating. It still holds still now until we did
need to hold the February because you just need to
get there so then I can just be able to
exact same strat than were before one see whether or
not that holds. Remember you want more details, specifically all
the games that will be played in week seventeen, You
can get it by subscribing and downloading and gain Theory

(01:09:56):
and Money podcast using Bill Smith's research and obviously he
centered with the model that Cynthia runs those ten thousand
simulations for each and every game. We appreciate you watching,
and we'll be here every single week as the playoffs
roll on, trying to figure out using map who's going
to hoist that against Lombardi Trophy coming the first week
of February