Game Theory and Money Week 3 Predictions

10,000 simulations on every single week 3 match-up! Dive into the Game Theory and Money podcast this week to see if the Browns can pull off their first win, which team seems like an absolute lock to walk away a winner, plus which game has the most potential to offer up some offensive fireworks. Join Matt "Money" Smith and analytics guru Cynthia Frelund as they make their was through a sea of numbers to provide you clarity for all of week 3's outcomes!

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:05):
A big hearty welcome to week three of the Game,
Theory and Money podcast. To those of you that have
been with us so far these first two weeks, thank
you and also a big thank you for sharing, downloading,
whatever you may do to help us grow this podcast,
and especially it brought us back for a second season.
We cannot thank you enough. I am gonna stop speaking
in just a moment, but celebrate the central part of

(00:26):
this podcast, which is our Cynthia Freeland, the premier predictive
analytics person in all of foodsball. She runs her ten
thousand simulations of every single game and you not only
get the winner, but you get the exact score. And
we all know that's very, very important. Cynthia, I don't
want to miss anything. I will point out the record
last week. Look, you can't win them all, but you
did win nine and seven. At least it's a winning record,

(00:49):
I think. Unfortunately for you, you have set a high bar.
People so darn used to the third team and three
four for myself, though nobody's more upset than me, But
you listen, you can't. You can't come after me because
I'm harder on myself than any of you. Know. It's true,

(01:11):
give me that football cliche. We don't have cliches that
around these parts of Maath is what we have. A
couple of the highlights from last week. You had the
Chargers winning by eleven they did exactly and you had
the Vikings Packers is a close one, even with the
health of Aaron Rodgers. So a couple of good ones there,
and throughout this we're going to separate it a little
bit differently this week. I think it's important for us,

(01:33):
or at least maybe important for you. It doesn't really
matter to me. I'm just the blowhard that gets in
the way of everything. But to kind of share with
the people, Hey, these are the tight games, uh, that
the that the model predicted. These are the ones that
aren't quite as tight. And then these are the ones
that look like you would perhaps put in that locks bucket,
the the ones that you feel really good about based
on your model and what it's spit out. Did I

(01:55):
miss anything? Does that sound right? That sounds perfect? So
how do you want to classif li am like fifties
hard to predict, but you still feel pretty good about them? Like,
how how should we? Because as we get this started,
um flip of the coin. Yeah, let's do like a
flip of the coin basically, like anything that's just a
little bit better. So let's let's just say like anything

(02:16):
that falls within that like fifty point one to fifty range.
Those are the hardest to protect. Okay, So you run
the ten thousand simulations. Half the time they're spitting out
one team, half the time they're spitting out the other,
and it always results with a score that's usually no
more than a point uh to two points and most So,
how about we start with our top coin flip game

(02:37):
of the week, one you and I talked about as
a fantasy gold mine game because you thought a lot
of points would be scored the Saints at the Falcons.
So right now the model is fifty three point three
percent in favor of the Saints, who are not favored
in this game. So for me, the interesting part about
this one is the changes to the Falcons defense and

(02:59):
the fact we haven't seen Drew Brees really come together
and get that offense offense humming like where you used
to do. Yes, Michael Thomas has been amazing. Yes, Alvin
Camara first week especially, it was great, But really, we
have not seen Drew Brees In fact, last week, it
was kind of interesting to see that their two seventy
total yards is the fewest that they've allowed, especially at home,
since like a decade, So that is that is a

(03:22):
big that's this this model reflects the fact that that's
not going to keep happening. Yeah, I think we're all
kind of stretching our head over the Saints offense and
maybe mark Ingram is that important and once he gets back,
they'll find more balance in that running game. But I
think we all just kind of expected Alvin Camara to
do what he did in Week one every single week,
So it's just kind of interesting to look at the numbers.
And granted, everything changes, game script changes based on what's

(03:45):
happening in the game, but the fact that they're lasting
rushing is a little bit odd at this point, even
though it's only been two games this season, and Breeze
has been uncharacterisically bad on deep passes, so we're used
to him being this like perfect deep passer, but it's not.
It's it's got a you know, positive regression or whatever
you wanna call it, Like he can't stay this down
for long. Based on the model, based on the history,

(04:07):
especially because we have a lot of history on him,
and in this one you did see really was more
Dion Jones that was like the big difference maker for
being gone. Keane O'Neil obviously also a big deal. So
those are those are two big pieces in the middle
of that defense. So Camara should get going absolutely in
this game again, and really just more coincidence, not something

(04:28):
that I think we would point to that you would say, hey,
this is what the math says, but just odd that
the Saints are one of these teams that gets off
the slow starts and ends up still making the playoffs
and still being a team that we think is a
favorite to win the Super Bowl for whatever reason. That's
just kind of the way it's been historically for them.
And look at what's going on so that it's so
weird because if you look at the Saints, they're actually

(04:49):
right now allowing allowing the highest opponent passer reading like
that's ridiculous. It's above one thirty. So that's honestly, I
don't believe that's going to say Marshall Lattimore is better
than that. The their defensive backs as a group are
better than that. And if you look to see the
ability for them to get pressure in this one. You know,
Matt Ryan under pressure obviously, like most quarterbacks, is bad.

(05:11):
Matt Ryan under pressure the red zone becomes a bigger problem.
Everybody has heard that before. But you lose your left
guard and then Matt Ryan getting pressure in the middle
where it's kind of trickier to get out of. That's
a hard one, and especially if DeVonta Freeman isn't back yet.
So I think it's also sorry to interrupted, and it's
also important and remember just and then. The only reason

(05:31):
I do is because this is what I get hit
with all the time because I work on the Chargers broadcast.
But someone was coming at me today about this defense
stinks their average and you know, allowing twenty nine points
per game, and I'm like, look, I'm not trying to
defend the defense and say whether or not they're great
or they stink, But uh, fourteen of those points were
given up to special teams, want a punt return, want
to fumble on the two yard line that gave him
a first and goal. And there's seven more points that

(05:53):
were basically conceded in the final two minutes of a
game against Buffalo. So if you take twenty one points
off of their total all over two games. They go
from allowing twenty nine points per game to nineteen points
per game, and now you feel a lot better. So
I think it's gotta be careful because that Ryan Fitzpatrick
game in Week one was such an outlier where he
had that perfect pass already and in all those yards

(06:13):
and all those points, that it's gonna skew it until
they get four more games on that slate. All of
these numbers are liars so far, every single number that
is just such a small sample size, they're all liars.
I do think that Michael Thomas being super impactful. In fact,
he's been the most impactful wide receiver so far this
this season. I know it's only two games, I think
that will sustain just because of how he's doing it.

(06:35):
But in general, most of these like rankings and numbers
that are just big old liars. And the one thing
I guess that I'm most interested and I think is
if in fact DeVante Freeman gets healthy and comes back,
if they kind of found something here, you know, instead
of Tevin Coleman just kind of be in this. Hey,
he'll get his eight to eleven touches but it's a
Davante Freeman. If they figure out a way to get

(06:56):
more two back sets with both those guys out there,
more touches for Coleman and Vant's fresher for this, you know,
more fresh for the fourth quarter. This could actually benefit
them if Tevin Coleman can continue to be this effective.
Look Tevin Coleman in rushes of ten plus, he's been electric.
That's about how he's been making his Hey, he also
had that thirty six yard run and gain in order

(07:17):
to set up with the Calvin Ridley first touchdown. That's
what they need to see more of. So you're totally right.
Using the two together would be the optimal situation for them. Alright,
So again you've got just as a flip of the
coin game. So just over you're taking the Saints taking. Yes,
it's a very slim margin. I think this game has
the potential to go, like, you know, even higher, like

(07:39):
you know, thirty five maybe, Like this is the one
if you're going to have another week of if we're
going to predict another week of potential ties, this is
the one that would be up for it. Let's hope
not hateful kind of Like I mentioned what we talked
about earlier on NFL Fantasy Live. This is your fantasy
gold fantasy. A lot of touchdown, a lot of points.
Does all your Falcons play all your Saints and when
you're weak? Right, let's go to another flip at the

(08:01):
coin game. Cowboys at Seahawks too. Uh. Teams like the
Cowboys feel like they should go one defeated every year, right,
and the Seahawks got their backs against the wall starting
zero and two in a division with the Rams. So
a big one up in Seattle for the twelve and
the Seahawks. Yeah, okay, so twenty twenty Cowboys. Now. Part
of the reason why this one falls into the coin
flip category is that we've seen Shaun Lee and now

(08:23):
appear on the injury report, which is an unfortunate annual
thing that starts to shape their defense, which their defense
has been the strength of this team. However, the one
area shaanly doesn't impact pressures, well, he does impact it,
but not direct not as directly as you know DeMarcus Lawrence.
They actually have nine sacks by eight different defenders, which

(08:43):
is really like coming from all all over the defensive front,
which is the most effective way for pressures to affect quarterbacks.
And Russell Wilson has been sacked twelve times, which is
first and yes, okay, six of those were you know. Anyways,
they're they're six and six, right, so six in each
game and you and you have Khalil Mack coming at

(09:06):
him is not fair, but it still counts and it's
still something to monitor in this situation with de Marcus
Lawrence on the other side. And I think the one yeah,
the one thing with Russell is I mean we saw
coming and we saw this coming. We said, you know,
coming into the season, Okay, you feel like you solidified
the left side of that line, but the right side
of that line is a major problem. And it turns

(09:27):
out you don't have to designate which side of the
line you wanted to lel Mac come from. If you
want him to repeatedly just wreck German Effetti. That's what
you can do all game. And that's what teams have
been doing. So unlike other squads, where you know, maybe
you can shift protection, or you can try to lean
on an extra tight end or an extra alignment to

(09:48):
negate that rush, it doesn't seem to matter. Whoever is
opposite of Fetti is having a field day with Russell Wilson,
and he can only do so much to extend plays
and escape that pressure when it's coming from half the line,
you know, a tackle on the inside and the edge
on the outside attacking that right side. I mean, I
can't even There's really nothing else to say about that

(10:10):
except for the fact that a couple that with, you know,
Doug Baldwin's absence, and you really set yourself up for
having to be really reliant on Russell Wilson, which if
he's just being constantly pressured, is really hard to sustain.
No matter what, even if it's a specialist, Russell Wilson,
who's very special, I'm not taking any shine away from him.
They're still searching for a running game. You know. They

(10:32):
thought it was Chris Carson, and then we hear something
from Pete Carroll like, hey man, all right, Chris Carson.
He was all tired and he was gassed from special teams.
It's like, we are you talking about? You're running back
is gassed from special teams. Know your old line can't
run block, they can't pass block, and it doesn't matter
who you put in there to run, and Russell Wilson
is just running for his life. That is, that is
no way to win a football game. And yet he's

(10:52):
still so good that they have found themselves in games
despite six sacks per games, which is in the final
five minutes of a fourth corps, right, you know, And
if you kind of take the Dak Prescott on the
other side of that, it's kind of the opposite, right, Like,
in order for Dac to be to earn wins and
to score points, because twenty points versus the Giant is
the most they've scored in four games, like going back

(11:13):
to last season, they really have a hard time getting
into the end zone scoring those points period. So it's
kind of the opposite, right, Like you'll see all these
stats where it's like if Dac runs only only has
to have take attempts, it's dramatically different than when he doesn't. Well,
the honest truth about that is that those when when
he has those dramatic splits, they're setting themselves up with
you know, Ezekiel Elliott getting a first down on second

(11:36):
down or they're getting five yards on first down. So
it's a much more favorable passing situation. So just saying
how many passing attempts he takes into game doesn't put
the proper context on it. In reality, it's what passes
is he is he taking and are are his receivers
able to put him in a position to to succeed?
And the answer is when when Zeke's working, yes, when

(11:57):
Zeke isn't working, No. It's hard to to kind of
reconcile exactly what the Cowboys are and exactly what the
Seahawks are because again, you know, you mentioned if Zeke's going,
then the Cowboys are in pretty darn good shape, because
you can't ask that to do with that, that seems
to be clear. At the same time, the game against
Carolina was so bad. The Giants played absolutely awful, and

(12:18):
yet they still had a chance to win that game. Um,
and then I just think about and you know, how
much do you want to put into the home field
advantage and the loudest stadium and in all the land
and that sort of stuff. You know, to me, I guess,
since it's a fifty fifty game, you're going one way.
I'll just go the other. I'll take the Seahawks in this.
I can't embat I cannot envision them starting a season

(12:40):
zero and three, even if it looks like everybody's hurt.
It's a total reset. The offensive line is a mess.
I'll suggest that Russell Wilson figures out a way to
get this thing to one and two as opposed to
zero and three. I mean, look, I'm not going to
tell you much differently because it's literally a coin flip,
but right, I mean, so I'm gonna go. I'm just
gonna go so we can be different. I'm going boys,

(13:00):
alright and points by three point flip. We wouldn't have
to watch this mess, but then they will actually have
to play correct. It's not literally. I know you hate
over use of literally. I'm sorry, I don't. I just
figure it. Hey, it'd be pretty sweet if it was,
because I don't know if I want to watch this alright,
Bucks at Steelers, the magic of Bryan Fitzpatrick and the
two and oh Bucks who now have the Sean Jackson
making appearances on Total Access and saying I gotta go

(13:22):
with the hot handy after week three, don't care, I
gotta go with the hot hand which I'm sure is
great for for Jamis at this point. So right now
it's as we're we don't really there's It seems to
be like there's some some upheaval in Pittsburgh. We don't
have a lot of clarity to it. We don't understand
what's exactly going on, But as of our best estimate
from right now, I have this Steelers coming out on

(13:44):
top by the narrowest of margins, six to twenty five. Now,
part of this is because I don't know exactly what's
going on with Antonio Brown. It seems like he and
Ben Roethlisberger have something going on. I'm gonna tell you
through math terms, it's us. If you look at his
four point eight yards per target this season, that number
is usually like eight point nine or like, you know,

(14:06):
nine points something over the past two seasons. Right, So,
if you take what's going on in Pittsburgh, there's no
left bel and James Conner has been a good replacement.
We've seen all that stuff, and we've seen them have
these crazy come from behind sort of wins, and it's
been it's been a really weird season for Ben Roethlisberger
in that offense. So that that uncertainty coupled with the
fact that we've seen Ryan Fitzpatrick and Tampa Bay do

(14:28):
things that are very improbable, and I'm not saying, no,
I'm not disrespecting the Bucks in any way, but there's
very unlikely even a first ballot Hall of Fame quarterback
doesn't have often have multiple hundred and forty yards or
a hundred and forty passer rating or more in a
hundred and twenty under pressure, especially when you're throwing for
that many yards in a game, especially when in game

(14:49):
two year run game doesn't set you up for for success.
He's kind of like, you know, he's on that star
in Mario right, like he's he's it's just he's it's right,
Like he's he's invincible right now, which is very cool.
So what I did was I took that and I used,
this is so nerdy and you're gonna love it. Um
there's like momentum funds. It's like a hedge fund sort

(15:12):
of strategy where you take things that are recent very recently,
you overweight them a ton to try to like figure
out the movement of a stock, right, and you look
at things one to another. So I tried to like
find a good comparable for Ryan Fitzpatrick. I went through
to see like what's gonna you know, what could potentially happen,
and literally in ten years of data, can't find anything
that there's a you know, that would suggest that this

(15:35):
is going to last much past like two games, because
their secondary on defense is banged up. And ultimately, when
your secondaries bangs up and other people can throw against you,
you're gonna have to keep throwing. And the more you
keep throwing, the closer you get to that boom the
star being over. Do you know what I mean? And
and I'm not saying he's not a good quarterback. I'm
not judging, right, I do. I I totally understand what

(15:57):
you're saying. And you're suggesting that at the Pittsburgh Steelers
are the Koopa Trooper Ryan Fitzpatrick. Look, it was going great.
They were mushrooms flying all over the place, and now
is when you shrink to the mini guy and you
don't have fireballs anymore. I totally get it. And look,
they have the worst I think they have the worst,
if not, it's close to the worst past defense in
the league. And granted, a lot of that is because teams,

(16:19):
you know, are trying to deal with Ryan Fitzpatrick throwing
four touchdowns. Um, but this isn't a great opponent. If
you've got a bad past defense Juju Smith Schuster has
filled the void for you know, the lack of yards
per attempt at Antonio Brown. Jesse James had a big
one last week. So as you mentioned, it's very hard
to keep up at the rate that Ryan Fitzpatrick is
currently on. Now and see, you know what I do,

(16:41):
I like to contradict myself at the exact same moment.
You know, the Buck's got some weapons now. Absolutely defens
is not an easy cover. I'm not taking anything. I'm
not taking away from anything saying. I guess what all
I'm saying is if they do pull it off again,
I'm not gonna be surprised. Now, I will be. Yeah,
if if Ryan Fitzpatrick posts another pass alreading of a

(17:03):
hundred forty plus and under pressure, come on, I'll be surprised.
But O J. Howards are really good. Actually, both tight
ends in this matchup are fully playable in fantasy. Could
could potentially be top tight end scores for the entire week.
I'll take the stealers, though, I don't. Let's do it.
We've gotta be different. Zero one and one, I'll say

(17:24):
they go ones across the board. I'm with you on
this one, Okay, so those are our games. Now we
get to the you know, they should win games, right.
It's kind of how we're going to file these. Yep,
We're going in order of, like, you know, the more
the more close to the coin flip to the ones
that are nowhere near a coin flip per history. Okay,

(17:44):
so we'll start, I guess, so this is one that's
closer to it is to like Okay, so Packers at Redskins,
who wins Packers? What happened to our Redskins last week?
A team that we've been celebrating the cool hand to
Alex Smith, one of the best offensive lines in the league.
I got absolutely wrecked by the Indianapolis Colts. I watched

(18:06):
that game four times. I tracked everything on it four times.
I don't they just they didn't. They couldn't pull it together.
They couldn't get their offense to click. It just I
have no idea because some of like some of the
indicators were still really good, their old line still was good.
There was a lot of positive things going on there,
and they just couldn't close it out. Argus Hunt and

(18:27):
Darius Leonard absolutely wrecked the Redskins. That's right, Yeah, I mean, yes,
we were wrong. I was wrong, yes, my my, the
math was wrong. But I do want to point out
that there's quite a few points the Redskins were wrong.
That's what happened. Look, sometimes things don't fall in the
most probable thing to happen. Sometimes the the improbable thing happens,

(18:50):
of course, So I do want to point out that
fifty points in this game, it's probably more than you
might think after whatever the Redskins fielded last week. So
keep that in mind when you're totally in fantasy, when
you're looking at this total. Fifty points total both sides
of the ball, not just Packers. So I do want
to talk about Washington and the Bulitz. Their defense is
top four and blitzing in Green Bays already allowed six sacks.

(19:13):
This is very important because we talked about Aaron Rodgers mobility.
We obviously he still played extremely well against the Vikings
defensive front, which brings a ton of pressure. But at
some point those that those blitz is that pressure that
it's gonna it's tough, it's tough sledding to get past that.
I mean that that's a big problem. No, I hear you,

(19:34):
and I guess that my my retort to that, Santhia
is Aaron Rodgers. No, I'm again, because that's what we
always say, right, We just go yeah, yeah, Aaron Rodgers.
You know, he'll he'll find Ernimo Allison, He'll find Jimmy Graham,
or he'll find someone we've never even heard of before. Exactly.
Tie Montgomery sneaking out the backfield after having done nothing
through the first two weeks, is going to end up

(19:54):
with three touchdowns. I mean, it's just a probably like
went back from his suspension, probably scoring six touchdowns, something
crazy like that. They've got something special. You want to
like keep track of Alex Smith here, So I want
to talk about this. So first of all, Washington's time
of possession is first in the NFL. That's just not
converting into scores. And part of this could be because
Alex Smith has only thrown three deep passes, which is

(20:18):
interesting because last season is the chief he was best
in the league at this a hundred and twenty seven
passer rating on deep passes, and he's been targeting running
backs way more than Kirk Cousins did, and running backs
have been more effective for him in terms of yards.
But that's going to be an interesting part of this game,
because if you're going to look at a deep pass
to target, the Packer secondary is one that seems targetable,

(20:39):
especially for a guy that is as accurate as Alex Smith. Yes,
I think yeah. The one thing I think about the
Packers secondary is it's young um and and I think
you're you're either investing in Kevin King, you know, as
as kind of making that jump in his second season.
Uh and and look right, one hand washes the other.

(21:00):
You know, Kenney Clark and Clay Matthews and Mohammed Wilkerson
and Mike Daniels, we love huge when they're if they
can do to that Washington old line what Indianapolis did,
Guess what looks a lot better the Packer second there,
which has been victimized. So to me, I just it
feels like the Packers are putting something together. If they
were able to slow down that Minnesota defense enough to

(21:23):
score twenty nine points, I feel pretty good about them
being able to slow down a Washington defense. And I
don't know, I don't know what to make of Alex
Smith and the Redskins anymore after what we saw from Indianapolis.
That's why I would probably say I get that your
model has it a lot closer. But I suspect the Packers,
you know, ought to be able to get out of this,
you know, by a touchdown. You know what's weird? So
when I when I take the model and I look

(21:44):
at like, who's going to win the super Bowl? Because
you know we're when we're on TV, they ask us
ridiculous segments like predict the super Bowl before it even starts. Sure,
let's do it. Do you know who's winning this? Do
you know who's the super Bowl represented from the NFC
right now? Packers? Which is amazing to me. It's just amazing, easy, right,
like the change for making me look foolish. I think
the Chiefs in the beginning, I know you did. But

(22:06):
that defense better get fixed, get better. Let's talk about that. Hey, listen,
they keep scoring points, it won't even matter, all right.
So you have the Packers, I have the Packers. You
say they're going to score a lot of points, and
I agree, and I agree that it's going to be
a lot of Aaron Rodgers points. And that's why I'm
playing Geronimo Allison to my experts. League. As a matter
of fact, you beat me, as I took down last

(22:28):
week by the way you beat me, and you know
what kind of lead you had on me? Right? Thirty
seven point? That doesn't everybody love fantasy trash talk? Boy?
That's the best. Our fantasy team is so interesting to
everyone else, isn't it though? All Right, Raiders of Dolphins
another pretty close to feeling confident about your selection is
I think the way I'll phrase it, yep, next closest

(22:50):
I have the Dolphins winning one. Do you know what
we saw last week? Like this? This blew my mind?
I watched this game and what do we see? We's
all right, Daniell do read option r p O S.
We saw Ryan Daniehill like being going back to college.
It was throwback week. He went back to college and
you know what, it worked out in New York. Good

(23:12):
for him. I don't know, it was pretty it was
pretty amazing. Ultimately, I think they're just trying to stay
away from third and six. Plus, they have the highest
rush percentage in the NFL last year, their highest pass
percentage in the NFL in terms of play calling, and
their defense started last game against the Jets. They showed
us something they didn't really pressure Week one against Tennessee.
They were they were good at you know, interceptions, they
had turnovers, but they didn't really pressure anyone and runs especially.

(23:38):
They held the Jets to one point one yard per
care in first down. That's ridiculously good. Think of like
four as maybe a line in the sand to draw
anything under that as good one point one. So I'm
going to tell you I like my chances here, and
I especially like it because of how good Fitzpatrick is
against slot receivers sub fifty passer rating allowed. Yeah, becaus
been great. And I think you know, I said this

(24:00):
last week and I don't want to just repeat myself,
but um, you know, it's just it's not real sexy, right,
I mean that's just kind of the deal. But it's
starting to get there, you know what is sexy. But
but you know how many wins so it becomes sexy
that I that is again you with your spitting out
these football cliches. That's not true, and you know it's

(24:20):
not true, Cynthiaica. Guess what winning when you're going six
touchdown and scoring forty two in Pittsburgh, that's sexy and
that's what gets people excited. And Tyree Kill is fast
and oh my gosh, can you believe Sammy Watkins opposite.
But this is solid team, especially defensively at every single level.
And I think, I mean even rookie linebacker Jerome Baker

(24:41):
is having a great start to the to his career.
And and Minka, as you mentioned, I mean, when you
have young guys added to what was already a solid
but not spectacular defense, it's kind of like they're sort
of the two guys that are bringing the sizzle and
the athleticism that you felt like this defense kind of needed.
Do you think this is the team that, like, like,
it's not when you go after as like the girlfriend,

(25:02):
it's the one you end up marrying. Could be, could be,
Although I don't I don't know, I don't know if
I can trust Ryan Tannehill in that category. I think
I think that's one where you kind of look at it.
You're like, yeah, right, Tannel's pretty good looking quarterback, he's big,
he's got a strong arm, he's super athletic, but for whatever, yeah,
just don't work out. Just you know, there's something about it.

(25:24):
And they've got a really old guy running the ball
still ten to twelve times a game that we continue
to doubt. Um, maybe you know, maybe Adam Gaze hasn't
figured out. And you would know. I know you, you you know,
you know Adam very well and you've been around him
for a while. But there's kind of that law of
diminishing returns right where how many how many carries can
I give Kenyan Drake before we start to see that

(25:45):
decline because he's so efficient with all the touches he gets,
yet there's Frank Gore still taking twelve to fourteen touches
away from him per game. Well, look, here's the one
thing that you should know about Adam Gaze. Adam Gates
heard that on Gruden basically said like he was going
to run through Miami. He said there was some trash
talk in a in a press conference and it got

(26:06):
back to him, and you know what, I think that
this should be the I wish he was miked up
this week basically, you know for that show that I
love that show. Um, I wish you were because I
feel like this is a game where if Adam's gonna
be like, yep, keep running it up, keep running it
We saw it against Denver last year, you know, like
let's keep running it up. So that's what I mean.
And then on the Raider's side. I just again, I

(26:27):
don't know if it's a spoof and John and and
we're just not in on the joke. But to have
John Gruden, you know, today, when we're doing this show,
to say that one of their shortcomings is the inability
to find good pass rushers, that it's hard to find
a great one. It's hard to find a good one.
It's hard to find one, I believe, you know. What
do you know? I think there was one that he

(26:49):
seemed to remember, one seemed to fall into that category
of grade. And he was complaining, he was lamenting, you know,
the lack of passing deep deep passing in college football,
that all of this is r pos, bubble screens. And
his quarterback completed of his passes last game, and he
complained about him, he missed him, He missed him passes. Oh,
you're right, percent completion percentage, You're right, he missed us.

(27:12):
And I'm not. I'm done. I'm not falling for I'm
not taking the bag groud. Something's happening here. But I'm
taking the Dolphins, that's for sure that I can tell you.
And I took him last week, by the way, good.
I like it, all right, So we both have the
Dolphins and you've gotten high or a low total. I've
got a you know, I've got a high total. I
think I think that, I think. You know. It's it's

(27:36):
not the highest one, that is notne as high as
Packers redskins, but it is. It's on the high side.
It's the model doesn't spit out crazy high totals, you
know what I mean. So this Cooper can keep it
up because I don't want any drops. I like him
ten for ten. Well, that's one of the reasons why
you felt to me in the fantasy this week, because
I had Cooper catching ten balls. For goodness sakes, from

(27:58):
all right, let's go to upals at Panthers. So I
have the Panthers coming out four twenty and that's pretty
high from my model is a very stingy old model.
Um and for me, part of this one is because
of Joe Mixon's absence. So two to four weeks without
Joe Mixon that that high rushing average now look like

(28:22):
you can look across the line. Cordy Glenn, their tackle
that they brought over from Buffalo has been great and
he's been able to Joe Mixons be able to earn
like almost six yards per rush behind the left side
of their line. I understand there's all those things, but
still Giovanni Bernard is not an acceptable mixing replacement for
the long term. Now you can get him too, you
can get him to work on maybe he can. I mean,

(28:43):
I saw the Panthers. They missed a lot of tackles
last game, so I've I've seen that they're vulnerable to it.
But I think that Joe Mixon's like you know, he's
he's playing up here, and without him, it's it's hard.
It's going to be hard to replace his production. And
also I hate to say because I like Andy Dalton
and I thought it was fun, but I don't know
if you're gonna get single coverage on a J. Green again.

(29:04):
I mean, that's how I scored all those fantasy points
against you. Single coverage and end zone a G. Green
at the slot. They just they just let him. What like,
how did that happen? So that's that's another reason too.
So well, those things not working together, that's gonna be hard,
especially because Cam to me, Cam, that rushing ability from
Cam that one I know that it is a buzz

(29:25):
saw in the middle of that that Cincinnati Bengals dealing.
It's nasty, but you know what, the same he's like
the same, it's like the same size as those guys,
you know, so Cam Cam will be able to make
it happen if anyone can well that. Uh. And also
we're starting to see, you know, and we saw it
with Sae Kwon last week. What he have fourteen receptions?
I think Christian McCaffrey, Yes, okay, So you don't hand

(29:48):
it to him and he doesn't run in the a
of the b gap, I guess what you're throwing him
those extended runs. And he's so good in space that
if that's their run game whatever, I mean, that's their
run game. You can call it a page and call
what you want, but it's effective. And we saw the
DJ more. We saw some of these things happen for camp,
So the Christian McCaffrey. So in terms of running backs
who are most impactful in my model, it also includes blocking,

(30:09):
so that's when they're not being targeted in the past
game or rushing the ball themselves, the ones who are
most impactful. He's actually ranked number three so far this season,
so you can imagine the Todd Gurley you can imagine
Alvin Camara and then number three Christian McCaffrey. So that
is a that is a huge deal. That's game changing
for me in this one. All right, I'm gonna take
the Panthers as well. I took him last week against
the Falcons. I was wrong, but not getting off it yet.

(30:32):
I still like that defense. I wish they had, I know,
you mentioned, you know, kind of DJ more seeing whether
or not he can take that next step. I mean,
but I wish they had a better settle pass catchers.
People seems like you know how, you know how, like
the Chiefs, when you look at them, you're like, that's
a good group. You look at the Rams and you're like, Okay,
Cooper Cup that's this, and here's Robert Woods and here's

(30:52):
what Brandon cooks speed. Youven look at the Lions. The
Lions have that too. Unfortunately it's not going their way.
But yeah, same thing. But so you look at the
Panthers and it's just kind of like this this mismash
of this mission, maash of like, oh, there's fungous and
I guess Tory Smith can still take the top off
and yeah, but but here's the thing. Was healthy and
you know what I mean group in this game. In

(31:15):
this matchup, though, the thing is is the way that
the Cincinnati defense works is like I think their corners
might be even more, Like Gino Atkins is really good
and he's got three sacks already, and then but I
think William Jackson the third their best corner, like he
might be even better. So that kind of combination of
interior pressure in corners is a nightmare. The only antidote

(31:36):
for it is like a cam like guy and those
Christian McCaffrey. So that's that's the matchup here just is
in favor of Carolina. So that's where in other games
it will matter that he won't that he doesn't have
those that like wide receiving corps that you described. But
in this game, like I'm not, William Jackson the third's
really good, Like he's scary. I think Ray had an

(31:57):
interception last week as well. He did. Yeah, angles, So
all right, let's get to our next one. I'm gonna
cheat and share it six your model, says Chargers at Rams,
So which team is is comes out at the time
and your we can skip this oneaying that's for sure,

(32:17):
absolutely that makes a huge difference. So the RAMS wine
in my model, Um, I think that might be like
closer than some people think. Without Joey Bosa, that's gonna
just be oh, Todd Gurley, you know all day. Um,
So pressure is going to be obviously the one that
this that decides this one because obviously both quarterbacks, both
defenses have the ability to to really pressure the opposing quarterbacks.

(32:40):
But without Bosa, that kind of the two that the
pressure is coming from all sides of the line really
gets diminished. We've seen that in two games. So that's
the main driver in this one, I think. Um, you know,
it's it's hard to figure out the RAMS because the
first two teams they played, they have so poorly literally
been playing from behind. We don't know what they've They've

(33:01):
run the same place the second half of their game
against Arizona, they ran the same four places, just running
left screen, left screen, screen, the same thing. We don't
know who they are. I wrote a piece on dot
com and we were talking about the two NO teams,
and my knock on them is that we we don't
know their strategy, so we're not sure who We're not
sure who they are. Yet you know that the Cardinals
had more opportunities to score on that defense than it seemed,

(33:24):
but we don't know they didn't take it because they
never crossed the midfield right exactly. The uh to me,
I think the only you know that the Chargers are
gonna have to create turnovers. They're just gonna have to.
I don't I think if it's just a back and forth,
let's go at it. I don't don't think that's that's
the path to victory. But and and it's stupid because

(33:44):
it was the preseason, but I will I will say
just kind of it's when I was in the building
and got my eyes on Jared Goff, Melvin Ingram hit
him hard, hit him hard in that preseason game. And
we know that Melvin packs is bigger punches anyone in
the game. And it was a different Jared Goff for
the rest of that first quarter. Jared Goff under pressure
is a huge difference. That's the that's the going to

(34:06):
be the key to their season, it seems, because you
know what, using girly and the volume to girly is
super efficient until it's not right like and then and
then what else right? You got? I know we've seen
Cooks we've we've seen a lot of different Cooper Cup.
You're right, the wide receiving corps great, But if the
pressure changes who goff is so much that he can't

(34:26):
take that top off the defense, then what like, what
are we looking at here? So I totally agree. And
whatever plan they had for Kareem Hunt week won the Chargers,
they got to figure out how to like that on
steroids for for you know, and that's it's gonna be tough. Um,
it's a really good offensive line on that left side.
They've just been running behind Sullivan Bler. It's a Sullivan

(34:48):
Saffold rights over there with Whitworth exactly, and they just
keep running the left worth another friend of the show. Um, yeah,
friend of the show. But uh, we'll see if Derwin
takes the same jump he took from week one to
week two, from week two to week three, then that
may be how you compensate for that lack. I think.
I think it's closer than than most people imagine. Yeah,

(35:09):
but it's it's not an easy task, that's true, all right.
So you have the rams, you have them by five,
and you've got some points in there. One I'll abstain
from selecting that one and we'll get to the Broncos
at the Ravens. About the two Broncos huh. Although I'm
dealing with a knee today, they were doing this, so
I guess that's a big factor here. It is a

(35:30):
very big factor. My model has the Ravens winning this
one to twenty, so that means that more points than
you might imagine scored. But I still have the Ravens
coming out on top of almost a touchdown. I do
want to say the positive news here for obviously the
two no Broncos. The best positive news that I could
find the yards before contact on rushing downs. Their their

(35:53):
old lines run blocking better. Yeah, that's a really big Philip.
Let's go no, no, Philip Lindsay is ridiculous in his
own right. His yards after contact are over six. Okay,
tiny sample size two games, but six, that's ridiculous. He
doesn't face stax boxes. I get there, there are some knocks.
He doesn't face as many stack boxes. He doesn't. He's

(36:13):
had a better opportunity, But you know what, six that's ridiculous.
The three for a season is is leve bell satus
six for two games? You know that's that's ridiculous. So
I'm I'm in awe of him on that's what they'll
need to do. I mean that, that's what because you've
seen case Keenom has had just two interceptions under under pressure.
That passer rating of one under pressure one. We don't

(36:37):
like that both Freeman, they need, lindsay. But you know what,
there's a flip side of that too, and that's look
at last week. You know, after not facing the Bills
um and having to deal with the the Bengals and
that kind of pressure, Flacca was terrible. Guy was throwing
the ball all over the yard and it was finding
the hands of Bengals receivers because they weren't defensive backs.
With how bad those interceptions were. So and we know

(36:58):
when you got von Miller arguably the best past rusher
in the game. Uh, maybe that's the Flacco we see
and not the one that we saw in week one
that just carved up a pretty darn bad Bill's defense. Well,
let's say we see somewhere in between, right, because Geno
Atkins was getting to him through the guard position, the
guards did not help keep Flacco away from pressure. Outside pressure,

(37:19):
Flacco has been better at still connecting with his receivers
on and Yeah, and his receivers have been great for
him so far. A game one, I mean, we saw
we've we've seen there. They have kind of a core now,
you know, like there's options for him. So for me,
this one, this one is a Flacco bounce back game, right.
And and I don't I'm not taking anything away from

(37:40):
the Broncos defense as a whole, because they're still great,
But I do have questions about their secondary. They're not
jelling the same way they did when they had to
keep to Leave and Chris Harris Jr. Together there there's
an opportunity for the Ravens to make the most of
that as this secondary comes together. Yeah, I'm with you,
I'm completely I'm just not sold in case Kingdom, you know.
And whether or not he obviously doesn't play their their toast,

(38:01):
but if he does, I'm still not quite there. I mean,
those interceptions have been bad. As much as I love
Philip Lindsay and you know, I like to celebrate the
pack twelve and he's a fun I didn't know who
would have guessed, right, Um, I just don't suspect that
that's not what you're gonna be able to do. Against
the Ravens. It's just it's that that does not seem

(38:21):
to be something that that ought to be. You know,
the the hey, we're gonna go in and we're gonna
pile the ball with Philip Lindsay and Royce Freeman and
beat the Ravens. Now, you're probably going to throw it
around a little bit to uh, to get after him
and Emmanuel Sanders though, I will say his ability to
earn first downs, he's right up there. He's he's number
five on the list of the top five. That's a
really big deal. And maybe it doesn't manifest in every

(38:42):
day fantasy points, but in terms of impact of the team,
he's drawing double coverages. He's you know, having to block
stuff like that that it doesn't necessarily show up on
a statu sheet, but is super important to actually winning.
So if there's no case Keenum that will that will
be hard. But it's good that Emmanuel Sanders can help him,
especially really, you know, the Ravens second area is no
slouch and they're not going to single cover people anymore. Yeah,

(39:05):
I'll just I don't need to echo everything you've put
together with your model. I'll take the Ravens and I'll
just say, hey, a Broncos team that led against the
Raiders for all of six seconds in that game is
not one that I have a lot of confidence going
into Baltimore and beating the team that I picked to win.
The end, the a f C North Bears make their
way out to a Chicago winter retreat and just believe

(39:27):
it or not, for whatever reason, New Yorkers go to
Florida Chicago. Yeah, first sure to uh to the Greater
Phoenix area, I should say Glendale, Arizona for the Cardinals,
and you got the Bears, uh pretty heavily here the
Bears winning the model simulations. Then they win by a
score of twenty two to seventeen. Now, notice seventeen is

(39:49):
a low number. It's actually not the lowest one in
the model this week. But that's that's very low. My
model never predicts I've never seen in the history of
modeling any of this stuff. And I do this for
a long time. Never would predict a single digit a
single digit score. It always be at least a double
digit score. So the close you get to two single digits,
the knowe that that's that's not a very good outlook
on this one. Part of it is because you see

(40:11):
Fitzpatrick and Fitzgerald. Fitzpatrick's on a different team. You see
Larry Fitzgerald has been on the injury report and it
seems like a real injury, not veteran rest. And then
you see you know, look, um, David Johnson's snapcount has
gone down from two seasons ago where it was over
it's now closer like sixty eight percent. That's an interesting
that's an interesting fold. If you're a together, Mike McCoy,

(40:32):
that's that's what's interesting to me. Get it together. You're
a terrible play caller right now in Arizona. It's been
a mess that that guy can't get enough targets and
that offense. Look, the offense is terrible and that's all
there is to it. It's very hard to play an
NFL game with NFL talent and cross midfield once on
the last play of the game. I don't care how
good that Rams defense is. That's embarrassing. Uh, it's just

(40:53):
it's it is crazy. What has happened to that offense
that they invested a lot of money in the offensive line.
I saw him in the preseason. They look good, man.
That offensive line was getting pushed David looked like he
was spry. I really was, and it is you think
that they when do you think we see Josh Rosen? Oh?
It has to be at halftime. I mean if they're
if they're not scoring points and they're down a touchdown

(41:15):
plus let's say they're down fourteen points at the half,
what are you doing? You know what? What are what
are you doing? If you're on pace to lose a
game by twenty eight points to the Bears? Um, then
I don't see why you don't bring Josh Rosen any
The good thing about Josh is uh, for much of
a for as much of a jerk as he can be, Um,
he's he is such a sharp quarterback that he's someone
that would take a play call from Mike McCoy and

(41:37):
be able to diagnose a defense and say, now, that's
a stupid play. I'm just gonna, Hey, David, get ready,
I'm just gonna He's gonna Dave Craig It. That was
That was like a Dave Craig special. If he would
take play calls and just be like, yeah, whatever, hey,
you go run real far, I'm gonna throw it. And
that's that's what I suspect Josh would do in the
second half. You're my favorite. That's terrible. I like the
Cardinals to it. Let's talk about something. Sorry, what's positive.

(42:01):
Khalil Mack. Khalil Mack has been better than I thought
he would be, even and I thought he was going
to be pretty great. The only the only knock on
Khalil Mac that I have so far is that you
see him, you know, taking plays off at the end
of the game, which that's a function of conditioning. So
I looked at their next few their next few, sin

(42:22):
schedule for the next few games, and it's this game
and then Bucks, Fins and Pats. So I think we're
gonna see like right when you get to the paths,
And even if the Pats old line is still not
as great as we're used to it being, I still
think like that's going to give him the perfect amount
of time to just make that Pat's game amazing. You
have to look at ahead. I'm trying to make it positive.
I'm spinning it forwardine working Brady. You can't move like

(42:45):
you used to. Sorry, your gruel and your fancy diet.
But it doesn't matter if Khalil Max Baron down on you. Yeah,
he's been impressive. I mean, and as you said, yeah,
he's getting gassed and he's taken plays off or he's
off the field either like ahead off the differences. He's
so impactful in the first three quarters before that happens whatever,
Like unless it's Aaron Rodgers in an improbable come from

(43:07):
behind victory, then you're you're getting the best Khalil Mac
that you're getting. I mean, I'm interested to see in
this game some of the things that I'm gonna be
looking for are well, one, are we gonna see, like
you know, Jordan Howard, let's block for him just a
little bit better. I think I'm being nitpicky here. This
is not This is not like I'm being nippicky like
Jordan Howard. We are we gonna do this? Mitche tripiskey?

(43:28):
Are you gonna settled down a little bit? Just just
a little bit, just like the reads and the forcing
things like, just settle down, there's just chill out. Let's
see if we can get this game where you're where
We're starting to see a more Matt Naggy, like not naggy,
you know, gadget play to get him going and get
him out of his own head. Or whatever it is.
But you know, a nice, steady progression. That's what I mean.

(43:50):
Last year it was why why did you take Tribisky
ahead of Watson? You dummies? And now it's glad you
take Tripisky ahead of my homes, you dummies. And look,
maybe it's on. You know, maybe Mitch just didn't as good.
You know, maybe maybe he's not Pat Mahomes, maybe he's
not the Shawn Watson. He's been good enough though. I mean,
he's accurate, he throws a pretty ball um and you
just hope, like you said, the brain comes around. I

(44:12):
just think it's like, let the game slow down for
him a little bit. I mean, you're in like that
first game, it's Aaron Rodgers, like crushing your soul literally,
you know that's literally. It's not literally, he didn't actually
literally do it. So it's Aaron Rodgers yet So have
you figured it was a Bears fan at one point?
Did I feel as though it was so crushing? It
was so crushing, right, So I'm no longer a fan,

(44:35):
but you know, it's very very liberating. I hat to
do that with the Lions. It's gonna be It's not
a bad idea. We're both we're both together on this bears. Uh,
Cardinals gotta figure stuff out. And I think by figure
stuff out, I will make that prediction. You'll see Josh
Rosen in the second. Okay, we go the big ones,
the ones your model really likes, uh, And we'll start
with Giants at Texans. What he got? The model wants

(44:55):
to eat? It likes the Texans in this one to
twenty and a battle of the embattled offensive lines. You
like the Texans? Okay, the best owned two teams? Those
are the segments you're gonna be hearing for the rest
of the Which team is the best? Oh and two team?
The Texans started playing two playoff teams, the Giants slow starts.
In last five of their six seasons, they only made
the playoffs and one of those that's so twelve. Okay,

(45:17):
you're done with my You're done. I like it. I
think you gotta fill right. You gotta fell six days
before the game comes around. So we gotta play the
who's the best to win through a team? And then
I'll tell you it's not the Cardinals. So here we go.
As we move on to the Giants in Texas, Why
does the model like the Texas that's a pretty hefty win,
right there. Se plus and five points. Yes, that is

(45:37):
a hefty win. That is a It's a more point
filled hefty win than I would have expected. Really, it
comes down to Watson. So we saw him. You know, look,
he struggles when he's under pressure. That's every quarterback. But
he does it like, you know, let's say, if the
league wide differentials what twenty seven point five, he's like,
you know, sixty four point seven, so more than twice

(45:59):
as many as the league wide average. So pressure is
a huge, big, huge deal in this one. But we're
starting to see, at least in the past. Like in
the past game, we started to see his ability to
connect with I don't know, will Fuller come back, and
that was a big deal his return from injury. We
saw Deshaun Deshaun Watson. We saw he's passing to himself.

(46:21):
I think he did that last day. It was somebody
did do that last week off the helmet, but he
actually did that. He did that. It was him. Okay,
Marcus Mario, Okay, knew it was somebody did catch a
pass from themselves. But with new Copkins being able to
you know, will Fuller, there draw a little bit of
a coverage off of New Copkins. It's gonna allow Deshaun
Watson to look more. I know I said this last week,

(46:41):
but more Deshaun Watson like the mobility will come back
his feel for I mean, he's playing without a run
game essentially, so that kind of balanced at least spreading
the field out a little bit. The Giants defense has
looked better, but I still think we saw a really
erratic cornerback play. So I don't think I think it's

(47:02):
a huge mismatch mismatch or misshmash if you will, of
New Hopkins and Eli Apple and Will full Or and
Eli Apple. So I just think the dehn de Shaun
Watson's gonna be able to exploit that kind of erratic
up and down play from the corners. And we saw,
you know, Will Fuller and Deshaun Watson pick up where
they left off last year, that kind of speed. And

(47:22):
of course New Hopkins, who does it regardless of the quarterback,
regardless of the opponent. He's just that good. And I'll
tell you Sterling Shepherd has not been good. Uh, Eli
Manning has not been good. That offense big time has
not been good. And you know whether or not this
this like the Texas defense been okay, it's it's not
like it's been their fault. It's been a lot of
mistakes by Deshaun Watson and the lack of Lamar Miller

(47:44):
having any sort of impact on name. Yeah, so well,
and here's the difference. The Giants are last in big plays,
so big place twenty plus receptions and ten plus rushes
and with your line being this big of a deal.
And Segoon Barcoy has had a great start, Like like
anyone who says he's not or that, I hate the
narrative of like, oh they should have gone quarterback, but

(48:05):
but like it's that's who cares what they should have
done whatever. Se Quan has been great, He's very valuable.
He's been it's not his fault, but they're not giving
him such a situation where he's really able to connect
with what he's you know, really getting those yards after
the catch and really opening the game up for Odell
Beckham Jr. Because Eli keeps throwing the ball really quickly

(48:26):
and getting it out of his hands really quickly, things
can't develop. There's no time. That means better field position
for the Texans, that means more favorable situations for Deshaun
Watson and less risky situations. So that's what really drives
the Texans to have such an overwhelming victory. Yeah, and
I mean, look, I know that the Texans fans will
probably point out the fact that, you know, their rushing

(48:47):
numbers are good. That's fine, They're just they're not impactful.
You know. That's the game that I care what the
numbers are. I'd like to see that running game impact
the game, open things up more, so this team could
score some more points, all right, Patriots at Lions. How
is this not the biggest one? See in favor of

(49:09):
seventy one in favor of the Patriots twenty nine to
twenty one. That's what I think would be maybe lower
scoring than people might think. Yeah, but think if when
you close your eyes, you're like angry Tom Brady. Angry
Tom Brady always scores ten millions points and never loses
after losing by double digits, double by double digits. The

(49:29):
next week, he just crushes souls. Okay, but I just
don't know if the lines will be able to keep
pace or keep it. You know, I think this one
is overwhelmingly in favor of New England. And not as
many points as I would close my eyes and imagine
if I was just thinking about this. And you know why,
because the Lions do the two mortal sins that you
are never going to sustainably win with. If you cannot

(49:50):
stop the run and then you cannot run yourself, you
do not win football games. It's almost as bad as turnovers.
Like turnovers, it's bad for him. I think they haven't
used him. They haven't used him to end up in
Detroit and it's just not gonna happen. That's a team
that is going to have, for whatever reason, the last
since Barry Sam Hate Me, one of the worst running

(50:12):
games in all the football And as you said, they're
terrible and stopping the run, I mean, Matt Breed had
just absolutely wrecked them last week in San Francisco. We
know what happened against the Jets with both Bila Paul
and Isaiah Crowell. And it's gonna happen again. Um, and
it's it's gonna be Rex Burkhead or James White or
whoever else. No, you know who's gony, Michelle. You know why,

(50:35):
because it just is like that's just that's like the
it's I mean, look that's not what the model says.
That's like the Cynthia ironic, you know, take on that right,
because football football will have I will suggest that football
has no soul. If Josh Gordon in his first game
as a Patriot goes for like two yards and three touchdowns,
I just can't cannot have that. I can't. I'd be

(50:55):
okay with it if it's Sony Michelle just because like
we deserve that as Lions fans. But like you know,
but not Josh Gordon, you know what I mean? Like that,
like Sony Michelle, all right, good, you tricked. You tricked
our coach, you tricked your your disciple, you mean another one.
Look like they aren't as great of a coach as you.
I got you, I got you. I see what you're
coming with. Not the first, you won't be the last.
I get you. And look, the one thing I look

(51:15):
for is like, okay, well how do you beat the Pats? Well,
obviously we saw you beat the patch with pressure and
you beat Patched with pressure in the middle. Everybody like
we know that, right, we saw that last week and
especially with their you know, wide receiver situation last week
not being where it normally is as a team, and
September being the wonky month where we're actually seeing the
Pats preseason right now with all those things, if you

(51:36):
could pressure them, but you know what, the Lions can't
pressure anyone, so that's just not a big deal, right,
All right, Let's go Titans at Jack's as we make
our way toward I guess what we would call the
locks the lock of all locks, But Titans at jack
Wars is pretty dune close Jags. So unfortunately for my

(51:57):
model Cam Robinson, who I love, and he's been really
helpful in keeping boardles out away from pressure, he's not playing.
But when it comes down to it, especially with Marcus
Mariot and potentially Bling Gabbert playing again, Mariota last I heard,
he still has no feeling in his hands. We got
an email about it a little while ago, and that's

(52:18):
not good. That's not going to be a real helpful
way to win games. Um. Even though Blink Gabbert looked
great last week, it's very much of a different opportunity
to look bad against the Jags defense. Tennessee, they saw
a lot of stack boxes and cut you off. But
I'm gonna catch you off here. That Jags defense made
Tom Brady look bad. That's why I said it's not hard,

(52:41):
but they created so you don't. You don't need to
go to deep on this one. Blaine saw ghosts when
he was in a Jags uniform. Now he's not going
to see ghosts. He's gonna see Calais Campbell and Malik Jackson,
Fowler of a di Dante Fowler of defense and uh,
and it's going to be ugly. And I think you're
being kind by a jesting. The Jaguars are gonna win

(53:01):
this game by eleven. I don't have any question that.
As long as you think it's more than a touchdown,
that's all that anyone cares about. Hey, Mark, Mike Vrabel,
you're all smart and junk. Congratulations, But Jacks are gonna
absolutely reck them this game with blank Gabbard And I know, look,
he kept it short so the completions were high, but
I've got to believe he hit Corey Davis in the

(53:22):
helmet like two times, through overthrew him when he was
six yards away three time. For whatever reason, that board
got getting like, hey, Derrick Henry, why don't you just
want to just keep rushing? We're good, Just to go
just everybody wrote, Dion Lewis, you go, you're gonna go
to one thing to watch. You just one thing to
watch for the future. The borders pressure situation because with
the O line, with Cam Robinson being out, boards has

(53:44):
been pressured about the same at the same rate as
last season, but he's not getting sacked as much. So
that's just a really good example. It's like four percent
last season. This this year it's one one point three percent,
So that is a big difference. We're something to monitor
for the future because Darrell Casey can get to the quarterback.
I'm not taking anything away from Drought Casey and Harold
Andry looked good last game too for Tennessee's Yes, how

(54:06):
did that guy slipped in the second round? Um, no question.
Obviously they have a really good second here. So so
we just one thing to track for for future, for
future reference. All right, you ready, Eagles, it's about right.
Carson Wentz is back. That's right to nineteen. And that's
although you know, I tried to take away from the

(54:27):
Colts right against the Redskins and look what they did
to them. Yeah. No, well, okay, so here's here's two things.
Part of the reason why the Eagles have looked so
not Eagle like is they've They've actually played almost half
of their snap total that the last season they took
like about a d and twenty snaps playing from behind
during the regular season. This season they're already at like
fifty there. They are almost at the same snap total

(54:49):
playing from behind, which means that a lot of the
plays that they have in there to make Nick Foles
look great, the more gadget trick stuff like those are
like roll of the dice right like they're high upside,
but also high downside right there, more risky kind of plays.
Those are hitting the downside more than the up So
you know what, I know, it's something you're yeah, I know,

(55:10):
it's something you're gonna detail too on game day morning.
Just the return of Carson Wentz and how much different
this Eagles team is going to look with while the
guy was probably gonna win the m v P and
the league last year before he heard his leg and
Los Angeles against the Ramps. The only thing you need
to know about that is that went in the red
zone and went in passing situations. That's that's whence red

(55:31):
zone is like a thing of magic. That's what gave
him that m v P like those m v P
like qualities. But I do want to say Frank Reich something.
I don't know if people remember this, but he was
the offensive coordinator there for the Eagle. So if there's
anyone that's familiar with how special he is, he it's
it's definitely coach rereg but it doesn't have the personnel
to be able to account for the mobility that the

(55:52):
potential to hit any one of his receivers even though
those receiving the receiving corps still banged up anyone. He
can hit anyone all the different pass catchers in any
route better than Nick Foles, and that I don't have
math on that. It will be interesting, um to see
if in fact they can do it again, because I
have a very high regard from Mali Cooker. He's special.

(56:15):
When he's healthy and he's on the field, he is
agree special. Safety Darius Leonards flashed already in two games
as a rookie. UM and Andrew luck is really good.
He's a flash, really good elite quarterback. So if he's
healthy and and he starts slinging it around, then you're
gonna find yourself in some games I mean, he took
him to the a f C Championship for goodness sakes,

(56:36):
when he was healthy, you know, before because we forget
he was gone for almost two years. So you talked
about the Philadelphia did allow to seventy plus yard touchdowns
last week to the Bucks. So deep passes as an
area that that you know, the Eagles are gonna have
to improve a defending run that way real fast. I'm
gonna throw this ball really hard and let's see what happens.

(56:57):
So it's look, if Wentz is back and he's the
wents of last year, I totally get it. I'll just
kind of put this qualifier in there. If in fact,
they do this week or at least hanging there and
look like they're pressuring like they were last week against Washington,
I'm gonna start become a believer in the Colts. I'm
with it because that's you know, we forget how good
Andrew Luck is all right to the forty niners at

(57:20):
the Chiefs two point one percent Chiefs one yeah. I mean, look,
I've doubted the Chiefs two weeks in a row now, right,
So you know what's funny. You can't slow down the
cheetah you know, Mahomes is just throwing. I don't his
footwork looks terrible. The defense is terrible, but man, how
do you slow down that offense? So here's here's two

(57:43):
things that I understand that adds to fifty two points,
which seems like a lot of points, but I think
that the general public would think it'd be like, you know,
maybe a lot more points than that. So I have
a fewer point total overall despite a ten point when
in part because well, Ruben fosters back. So Ruben Foster
being back for the forty nine does change a little

(58:05):
bit in terms of, Yeah, their defense is good and
they get a lot of pressure on opposing quarterbacks. Here's
the problem, well problem if you're a forty fan. Patrick
Mahomes is actually like one passer rating under pressure. That's good.
Patrick Mahomes is also completing more of his passes when
he's getting the ball out quickly, which is what he does.

(58:27):
So the two things that sometimes rookie or I guess
he's not a rookie, but his in his first full season.
There the two things that you kind of see like
take a little bit time to gels like passer rating
under pressure and you know the ability to adjust between
deep passes and short passes, and Patrick Mahomes has been
excellent at both of those. So again, Ruben Foster being
back does limit it. And I do think we start

(58:47):
to see a little bit. Is Eric Barry going to
be back? I think he might be. That could be
a big deal. That's a huge game changer. Kendall Fuller,
who came from Washington to this team in a trade
last season, he's actually number seven on my quarterback or
cornerback ranks. Terrible. I mean sin that they are. They
are terrible defensively, they are absolutely terrible. Again, you know,

(59:13):
that's one of the reasons why when you said that
they were your your super Bowl team, I kind of
because I when I was putting together that first week,
I was like, man, I don't know what they're gonna
do on defense. They don't really, you know, justin Houston
is great, I get it, but there's really not a
lot else. And I just think they were up twenty
one nothing on the Steelers and it was before you
blinked because they can't. They got Orlando Scandrick out there
running around, and I mean that guy is a mess. Yeah,

(59:36):
it's maybe that was a little harsh. It could have
been a little but again, and I'm not I'm not
detracting from the chief. I'm saying, if they're gonna do it, yeah,
they're gonna have to do it by scoring forty points
a game, and we can do it. You can't. You
can't rely on that sustainably, right, especially if you have
someone who's who scores as many points as Patrick Mahomes
and that in this offense does, then your past events

(59:58):
especially needs to be short up because if if you're
up that by that much, teams have to pass on
you in order to score enough points to try to
hang in there with you. So that's why it's a
better combination to have an offense like this Kansas City
offense and then fix your past defense than to try
to like stop the run as much, right, because nobody's
gonna run on you as often. They're gonna want to
pass on you all day in the second half. So

(01:00:20):
for me, the fact that, look, Kendall Fuller has been good,
you have to work. It has to be a better
full unit. I do think we see that this week
because what do we Who's who's number one pass catcher
in San Francisco. His names George Kittle. Yeah, he runs
and when he runs the deepest routes, but that's not

(01:00:42):
so they're kind of playing into like this middle of
the field, an area like keeping the ball in front
of the Chiefs. Keeping the ball in front of the
Chiefs is a good way to like stop having all
those yards put up against you. See, you know, insert
when you saw like Keenan Allen running those shorter routes
didn't have as much success as he did when they
were going over top with him. So it's all about
which routes are they running. So that's part of the
reason why this one. I feel like you're going to

(01:01:04):
see better stats from the Chiefs defense in this one
because the ball will be in front of them, is
supposed to going over their head and they may have
to get this thing balanced out and start running the
ball with Kareem Hunt a little bit more, give that
defensive breather instead of just taking ninety second drives and
just putting it out there over and over and over again.
But I'm with you, this is not the game where
they get exposed, all right, Bills Vikings, I don't know

(01:01:24):
how deep you want to go into this, This seems
pretty obvious. Yeah, Vikings got it. Yeah, I'd say it
could be fourteen. I know everyone's pilot on the bills. Um,
I just saw him brea yet you can it's it's okay,
it's it was. It was a rough go. I mean
they had six straight quarters of really bad football. Um.

(01:01:46):
They settled in the second half a little bit. I
think the Chargers probably took the foot off the gas
as well. But what they did in the second half,
I'll say it was kind of interesting. Um. And this
may be something you're gonna say, and I'm just taking
it from you, but they started running Josh Allen. He's big,
he's athletic, he's fast, and he is a load to
bring down. Um. So that's I think their path moving forward.
But do you really want to expose him in a

(01:02:07):
year where you might win a couple of games to
all those hits? That's going to be the trick for
Brian Table. Yeah. I am actually going to look at
something on the Viking side of the ball because I
think it's more positive. Let's go there. I'm curious to
see if we can get Dalvin Cook going. He's not
been exactly who they need him to be yet through

(01:02:28):
to exhilarating games. Um, but I'm curious to see, especially
against this Bill's defense that has been able to be
run against, if the Dalvin Cook that we anticipated in
the beginning of the season shows up, He's my number
six running back in projections because the model says yes
in part because of game script. But I want to
see the ability to break tackles, especially coming off surgery.

(01:02:51):
I want to see, like, is he you know what
what happens when when he gets more contact? Positive? I
think that right? Okay, and tremain Edmunds was awesome last week.
I don't care. You know what. He was asked to
do a lot. They targeted him a bunch, They targeted
him a ton. Yeah, he's super athletic. Um made a

(01:03:13):
couple of plays, but got you know they it seemed
like a quarterback and Cousins falls into this category just
real quick. As smartest Philip Rivers is. He was able
to diagnose what what the young man was unable to
do and repeatedly went after him with Melvin Gordon or
Alsto out of the backfield and they learned a lot
of hate there all right. Thursday night game do not
forget the Thursday night game that would have fallen at

(01:03:33):
the coin flip category. What do we got that we
got a first time in games or whatever? Twenty games,
the Browns win twenty. I'm with you, I'm with you.
I love the defense. I love, love, love the defense
of the brown specifically Myles Garrett and Denzel Ward. A

(01:03:54):
lot of people stard, but man, he looked great against
Antonio Brown in that first week. He's been on the
injury report. I'm a little worried that that the quarters
won't play on this one to Marius Randall and he
have both appeared on the injury report. I think, look
the Jets three games eleven days a rookie quarterback. That's
a tall tale for any quarterback, but a rookie quarterback

(01:04:17):
adjusting to the different speeds of the games. And in
all honesty, when you have your left guard James carbon Knew,
that's the name. I don't want to call him out,
that's kind of mean. He's been on the injury report
all right. He's been on the injury report all week.
He ranked he allowed the most pressures for any guard
in the entire league against the Dolphins last week, like

(01:04:40):
pressure in your face. You've had to adjust to all
of these different teams in a very short amount of time.
It's a it's a situation. It's a hard situation on
the road. These are all things that historically have not
netted out well for the team, you know, for the
team in the Jets position. I really like the fact
that you've seen Myles Garrett kind of match up against guards.
You've seen larryog and Joe will be pushed all around

(01:05:00):
the line. That that pressure is going to change things
for Donald and and I'm not I'm not getting on
the like Donald picks thing. I don't want to talk
about COLLEGECT that it's all different now, right, But any
quarterback is going to see a huge increase in pressure.
I've seen it. It's in the model increase if you're
playing on a short week with your offensive line allowing

(01:05:20):
pressures to reach you. And know not all pressures are
created equal, but I think that's a nasty pressure from
Miles Garrett matched up with the guard. I wouldn't want
to see that, and most quarterbacks wouldn't level In rookie
I guess I'll just I'll button it with this, unless
you have something else to add New Orleans hung forty
on Tampa Bay, Pittsburgh hung nearly forty on on Kansas City.

(01:05:43):
The Browns held each of them twenty one points. And
it wasn't a fluke. Uh They They got super unlucky
in special offense and got unlucky on in their kicking game.
They you can make a case that they could be
two and oh right now, and I'm with you. They
get their first when all right, when we wrap them, Cynthia,
we like to go to your confidence pick, do it
the big three? So what do we have the big three?

(01:06:03):
If you had to pick three that your model spit
out the three things that I think are you know what?
Before before we got in here, we were I was
talking with Mark Brady, who's our our producer, and we
called my mom and we had her rate me on
one to ten on how good of a daughter I was.
So I'm going to rate these. These are this is
my these are my tents. This this pick here is
a tent. I think that at ten we got a ten.

(01:06:24):
I think a high scoring game with between Green Bay
and Washington. So I think that fifty I think it
could go even higher north fifty points. This one's my
nine rated one. And I think that one's the that
there's gonna be more points than you'd expect. In Miami,
I have to one that means forty six points. I
think you know, it could be even higher than that.
So North Okay. And and I think Philadelphia, this one, Philadelphia,

(01:06:51):
it's going to be at least a touchdown that they
went by. They're gonna they've got They've got Carson Wentz
back at least a touchdown, and you get a bonus
because you know what I really long with, I feel
the lock of the week. This one's a lock. City
is gonna win by at least a touchdown. Kansas City
by a touchdown I got, I got ten points. A
double digit win in my model is ridiculous. Opener Arrowhead,

(01:07:11):
although Arrowhead known as a very calm, downright soothing. Yes,
it's just not enough noise there from those fans. They
really got to start coming to life, all right. So
Kansas City by a touchdown, you like, Philly by at
least a touchdown and a lot of points in Oakland,
Miami and Green Bay, Washington. All right, Yeah, it's pretty

(01:07:32):
darn good. It's a pleasure. No, I mean, it's just
a pleasure starting and ending my day with you, twelve
hour days with you or our favorite, It's been a
long day. If the energy has been low, my great apologies. Um,
have I managed to smuggle some booze in here or something?
Maybe we've got a little stupid there we go. It's
it's a it's a late one for us. But um,
twelve hours after we started our day talking football, we

(01:07:52):
finish our day talking football. So a big thank you
to UH, to our crew, to our man Shoppy, to
Mark Brady. Assume I'm forgetting somebody, but whatever, what do
you do to all of you? Is that download, that listen,
that stream, that share, that respond via Twitter, that have
helped us keep this on the air. We can't thank
you enough. We look forward to coming back next week
and we look forward to celebrate. And I'm gonna give

(01:08:15):
you I don't know how many times I disagree with you.
I think a couple, but I'm gonna give you a
nice let's go for thirteen and three weeks. I'm gonna
give you a thirteen three weeks expectations is what I'm
going on theory week three exactly. All right, Thanks everybody
for downloading treaming this, and we certainly appreciate it. We'll
be back again next week.