Game Theory and Money Week 4 Predictions

Cynthia Frelund faired very well in week 3 despite all sorts of major upsets. See what her 10,000 computer simulations on each week 4 game produced, what she has for 3 confidence picks this week (she's now 7 for 10 this season on confidence picks) and get to know Matt "Money" Smith on a very intimate level...it left Cynthia in tears, and will do the same to you! It's Game Theory and Money week 4 edition!

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:02):
A big hello and thank you to all of you
who are listening to Week four of our Game Theory
and Money podcast, Matt money Smith. You're along with the
big brain, Cynthia Freeland and her ten thousand simulations of
every single game every single week, giving you the information,
arming you with information to sound smarter than all your
fancy friends and co workers when it's come. When it
comes to projecting football contest, uh, Cynthia not only gives

(00:25):
us the winner, but you did you the exact score,
and we all know that's how you really impress the
folks out there. So, Cynthia, with your celebrated Sarah Broum,
let's focus in on some of your accomplishments from last week.
Are you prepared for that, like Cynthia, Well, because I
said Sarah Broum, Cynthia's successful Sarah Broum or Sarah Bellum.

(00:48):
Although I think Sarah bellum is the part of the
brain that is more focused on physical activity, I think now,
I think it'd be your stem. I think the stem
is where all the intelligence comes from. Cynthia's brains got
a heck of a stem on it. My brain it's
just a pretzel and it's twisting and turning and regularly
gets caught in dead ends. That's why we focus on
what she does for this podcast every single week. Cynthia,

(01:10):
you're too humble, So I'm gonna celebrate you ten and
six last week. You're now thirty one and seventeen overall
in the year. But this is the big one. The
way we kind of did it last week, and we'll
probably do it similar this week. We're still trying to
work through this. We're we're we're kind of working through
it with you. The people that are listening called a
coin flip games last week, the ones that you had
a winner only fifty too, like fifty two percent at

(01:33):
the time, you were three or four in those, the
ones that could go either way, and your model that
gave a team like a fifty two percent chance of
winning versus of losing. You ended up going three or four.
And those and your confidence picks, the ones that you
said you felt the best about that we're the most
lopsided in your model three or four. So seven and
ten on your confidence picks of the year, I would
say running those at a seventy clip, Hey, get that

(01:57):
chin up. How about a big smile on that phase
of years and I waited go their champ seven a
ten on your confidence picks. All right, so let's get
to it week four. And of course we can never
project injuries. Injuries that transpired during a game change the
outcome um regularly. So this week, this week Friday is
going to be important too, because there's a lot of
questionable players and even the Thursday night game, there's a

(02:19):
lot of people who Marcus Peters, Dalvin Cook. There's a
lot of things that could change things. So pay attention
and play along because that's how we make it fun.
You got to listen to the podcast and then follow
along all through the week, and then we can follow
up after. Yeah, and if you're listening after Thursday, what
we just said was, yeah, it's just like that Thursday
game and that's crazy, right. All right, let's go with
your let's go well, we'll call it just the tight contests,

(02:43):
you know, like we said, the coin flips, the games
that are just within a point um kind of of
one another when it comes to the way you project
them and how tight this contest was kind of based
on your simulations. We got an a f C nor
showdown used to be a big brawl three yards in
a cloud of dust. Now with the Steelers throwing it
all over the yard and Baker Mayfield and any Dalton,
A J. Green, all these dudes. I mean, it's become

(03:04):
an offensive conference. So what do we have Ravens Steelers
biggest reason why a team wins. So I have the
Steelers coming out on top twenty four on Sunday Night.
This one has a seventy one point five percent confidence
index that the Steelers will in fact when and the
reason for this is because that Steelers offense is greater
than greater than greater than the Ravens defensive scheme. So

(03:26):
basically what happens is we've seen the Ravens now three games.
It's not a ton of data, but it's it's giving
us something that's focusing on the front. They they're focusing
on creating pressures and that's a really big, really big deal.
But what you've seen Ben Roethlisberger do, and oh yeah,
there's a guy Antonio Brown and Jujuice Smith Schuster. They're
gonna spread the defense out and really the secondary can

(03:48):
get torched here and that's where you're going to see
them target. Yeah, I mean, you're talking about the number
one defense in terms of yardage, top five defense in
terms of scoring taken on the number two offense, and
I think you detailed it perfectly. Their offense beats defense.
And look, this isn't twenty years ago. People. Defense doesn't
win championships with the new rules, especially in the passing game,
tends to be Offense is winning these games. So if

(04:10):
you don't think Joe Flacco can keep up with Big
Ben and that arsenal weapons, totally understand why you would
lean Steelers in this one. Well. I also think that
Ben can have some things go wrong like interceptions, and
they can figure it out right, they can overcome that.
Juju Smith schuster Is ability to earn first downs shouldn't
be underestimated. Like Michael Thomas, these are guys who like
change the game when it comes to that and drawing

(04:32):
coverage away. And in terms of Antonio Brown gets double
triple teamed and then Juju Smith cheers like, yeah, I'm
just gonna get a first down every single time and
keep the sticks moving and really score points. So that's
really what the biggest note here is. But I do
want to give a little shine to the Ravens offense
because little Shine. Yeah, they've been they've been spreading it
around this this season. And I have John Brown getting
the touchdown just in case anyone cared, because really, the

(04:55):
Steelers defense, they've got two teams on a by So
if you got to replace Pamper or Redskins player, then
maybe John Brown's guy can get off to waywire exactly.
And look, they have not been able. Some underline, an underline,
an underrated storyline, or an underline, if you will, is
that the Steelers can't replace Ryan Schasier the way their
secondary is playing, the way that the middle of their defense,

(05:17):
they have been struggling to replace that production in in
the Shasier absence. So that's an underrated storyline underline for you. Yeah,
I guess just to put a button on it. From
from my aspect, just be careful when you're you're kind
of weighing the Ravens offense. They had such a lopsided
outcome against the Bills, I mean seven points. Yeah, I

(05:39):
know you don't, but I'm saying for the people, that
offense looks pretty good to me. Well, yeah, they scored
forty seven points and held the Bills to three. So
that's gonna skew all their statistics. The second thing I
would just quickly point out before we move on to
the next one is much like I said about the
Chiefs defense last week, I'm gonna say about the Steelers
defense this week. If you force three interceptions of Ryan Fitzpatrick,
one of them to pick six and that team still

(06:00):
has an opportunity to win a game in the final
two minutes, you have serious problems on your defense and
defense exactly. So that's what I would say is if
you want to put some faith in the Steelers in
the long haul against elite teams, just kind of remember
that they allowed the Chiefs to hang nearly forty on
them at their own place, and they picked off Ryan
Fitzpatrick three times, one for a pick six, and the

(06:22):
Bucks still had a chance to win that game in
the final two minutes. So I'm going Steelers by four.
What do you think, same thing. I'm leaning Steelers again.
It's an offensive league, and I think you know, I
love ju Ju. I think he is the perfect compliment
to Antonio Brown. I am a little bit worried um
about that Pittsburgh offensive line. It's been a little banged up.
Absolutely defends under Darrest. So you know, when you think

(06:42):
about that, that Ravens offense, our defensive line the one
issue I do have. And again you mentioned we know
more on Friday, but I think we have eight. If
I looked, if I remember right, I looked at the
Baltimore Ravens injury report, there were eight guys on there
that were either limited or did not practice today when
we're reporting this parte point five, that's at seventy one
point five. And you know at the top of the

(07:03):
party we say a run ten thousand for each game,
it's way more than that because every time there's an injury,
I rerun the ten thousand, so it's like a billion thousands.
I'll I'll go with you. I'm gonna actually take the
Steelers by even a little bit more. I know you
went four, so i'll go I'll go six. How about
that field goals? All right, let's go to uh A
f C West till Chiefs at Broncos can case Keenum

(07:25):
stop throwing interceptions. He's not gonna throw an interception. I
don't think my model don't have him throwing Its not
against that Chief's defense, Nope, but he's not going to
come out victorious in this one. I have thirty one
Chiefs fighter than you might, better than most think football
up in the You know, it's not like course field

(07:47):
where everyone just hits home runs. Maybe it is, but
both teams are gonna hit home runs, right, So sixty
point eight percent of the time, the model projects the
Chiefs to be winners. And the biggest reason is how
Patrick Mahomes is scoring, so how this offense is operating.
He's good versus pressure. There's this guy von Miller. I
don't know if you've heard of him. He's he's pressuring

(08:09):
at an an elite rate over that's ridiculous. But you
know what happens when Patrick Mahomes is pressured nothing, He
keeps throwing touchdowns. He does it in the pocket. He
doesn't when he's on the run. He's not as good.
So if they're going to force him out of the pocket,
that's going to be the way that the Broncos will
upset them. But my model favors the way Mahomes and
this offense is operating, meaning in the pocket, taking the

(08:31):
higher percentage throws even if they look not high percentage,
because he's you know, giving its tiree kill and like
five million are yards. So that's the real reason that
the number one overwhelming reason. Yeah, I guess a couple
of things for me, just quickly. I think one, Um,
I'm always gonna project the Chiefs to be in tight
games against good teams just because their defense is so bad.

(08:52):
Speaking of so bad, do you know how many first
downs they allowed? They've allowed? This This is Yeah, that's crazy.
Think of seven D has like a lot. I said
it last week. It's like you can't go up twenty
one points on a team and then five minutes later
have a game tied. That's how bad that And that's
why they're rumored to be in this Earl Thomas conversation
because they know they have to do something they cannot continue. Um.

(09:13):
This will be interesting though, because you know with the
rate with the Chargers not having Joey Bosa. You already
mentioned the issues you have with the Pittsburgh UH defense.
Now the forty Niners team is pretty good. Um, they
were down Richard Sherman. But I do like that front seven.
That's a front that can get after the quarterback. But
I am anxious to see if von Miller and Bradley
Chub can can at least make Pat Mahomes uncomfortable. You know,

(09:34):
are we finally going to see this young passer get
moved off a spot, maybe feel some pressure and make
some mistakes. It hasn't happened yet. In history tells you
it's gonna happen. But if it doesn't happen this week,
then maybe he's just an outlier and it won't. But
I'm with you. I like the Chiefs. I just I
do like it to be a tighter contest than a
lot of one is not. I mean, that's a ridiculous number,

(09:56):
but it's not kind of ridiculous for this offense. And
I do need to say part of the reason the
Broncos are able to in my model, score as many
points as they are and keep it so close is
because there, you know what the Broncos o line is
doing well blocking for runners. They're able to create a
game and that really helps case keenom because when case
keendoms under pressure, we've seen what happens. For the first

(10:16):
two games. He had a passer rating of one under pressure.
That's kind of a very small sample size, but I
always like one. I'm gonna I'm gonna change my pick,
do it I am big just because I started thinking
about it. I'm just not a case Keendom guy. I don't.
I don't think it's it's not happening. Quit trying to
make case Keendom happen is what I'm doing here, all right.
So yeah, I'm gonna take Chiefs by at least a touchdown.
About that. There we go, alright, so he differed there,

(10:37):
I guess perfect Jets at Jags. Okay, sixteen Jags. Did
you think it was gonna be the other one? Second?
Most definitely did not. Second highest confidence pick in terms
of who's going to win the game the Jags, with
seventy two point two percent of the simulations turning out
in their favor. And the biggest reason this one should

(10:59):
come as no surprise. So the Jags defense is good
at pressuring people, and Donald when he's pressured, he turns
the ball over. He does. And look, there were some
bad picks in the in the bronze game, but it's
gonna happen to it, by the way, I'll Scarett. And
now he's got to deal with Klias Gampbell and Malik
Jackson and and that Dante following that whole follow and

(11:19):
and in reality, I don't think like like I I
kind of hate when people do that extension, Like, well,
Donald through picks in college, so now he's gonna through
throw picks in the NFL. Like he can still be
a great NFL quarterback. He can be your quarterback in
the future. But when you're under pressure that much and
you have to learn how the game. You know, when
they talk about coaches saying like the game needs to
come to him or needs to slow down, you're right
it does, and he'll need to figure out, you know,

(11:40):
how to not turn the ball over. Quincy and Nuna,
who in my model does project to have the highest
chance of getting a touchdown? I guess because he's the
only receiver he looks at. Is the only receiver he
looks at. And you know, the way to beat the
Jags kind of that fake tight end sort of the
way that they use it, don what could be kind
of like a tight end, right, So that's kind of
the way that funnel defense sort of works. So for

(12:02):
me and NOA is a reason why they can, you know,
get those sixteen points in my model. And I gotta
give the Jet secondary a little shout out here. Season
overseason they've improved. Twenty two pass their rating points, so
twenty two pass the reading points fewer this season than
last season. And you know, I always love talking about
their safeties or some of my favorite to track in
the whole week. Jamal Adams couldn't be more interesting to

(12:24):
track for me. So this is one of the ways
that it's actually like manifesting great These young guys in
the middle Marks may U, Jamal Adams, and then the
corners complimenting them are actually affecting the past. Yeah, and
they added to their secondary. You know, they brought in
Tremaine Johnson, who was the highest paid corner I mean,
granted because it was a double franchise, but still a
very good corner. So, uh, they're better. I guess the

(12:44):
one thing I would just quickly add because I'm with you,
it's a lopsided game that the Jags get healthy in
a hurry, and it's a lopsided contest. But um, Sam
Donald does not have a good offensive line in front
of him, and Sam Donald doesn't have elite pass catchers,
and Sam Donald doesn't have an elite running you know,
I say a crow L and Balapala are not elite.
Changed the game force you to stack the box runners,
So I don't know what you want him to do.

(13:05):
But Baker Mayfield this whole one versus three last week.
I don't like that at all, exactly. That the guy
has considerably more talent on the offensive side of the
ball than Sam Donald is working with. And the scheme
that the Jets are running was old head scratch of
the highest proportions, so exactly, and you're not playing that game.
I think, like, look, we're not I'm not a Jet.

(13:26):
I'm not like as being completely like, I'm not a
fan of anyone when we do this podcast, right, Like
I get mad at the Lions, but I'm not a fan.
We're really lucky that we have Donald sort of seeming
to turn out and Baker Mayfield potentially turning out. And now,
Josh Rosen, this is great. We want a whole bunch
of good quarterbacks. You don't want to league of terrible quarterbacks.
It's a good thing. I like it. They're they're both
gonna be fine. Baker's gonna be fine, Sam Donald's gonna

(13:48):
be fine. Josh Rosen, we'll see. Still anxious to see
whether or I think can move around and oh yeah,
Let's put him in the fourth quarter and when he's
down by a billion points and have um Khalil Mack
just you know, exactly so, but again, take him. I
don't want to fast forward to But that's the problem
with Josh is he's not mobile like Sam Donald, like
Baker Mayfield, like Lamar Jackson. I mean, that's a clean pocket, exactly,

(14:13):
just exactly, all right, put a hot ub in this room.
Eagles and Titans. How about these Titans, Mike frabled dean peas.
How about these dean peas come from coordinator? Absolutely Okay, Eagles.
So this is a higher score than when you've seen

(14:35):
the Eagles kind of their offense hasn't gotten it together yet. Yes,
Carson Wentz is back last game and it was raining
and it was all a little a little nuts, and
then you saw the Titans ability to just blitz in
all of these cool ways that were super effective, which
is why I mean, look like that game fifteen total
points Titans and Jags is like hilariously low. But that's fun, right,

(14:57):
Darrell Casey could job so. Ultimately me, the biggest reason
that this one is close but still Philadelphia comes on
top is now we see Wentz, and especially whence versus
this blitz, let's go full Wentz right like, we're gonna
see maybe we get alshon Jeffrey back. That's a great question.
Can happen. That's that's the rumor. Um. But they're going

(15:19):
to have to account for his ability in the run
game and his ability to pass at every level. Those
those tight ends that he has on to seem both
tight ends are fully able to be used in ways
that can just make sure that those exotic blitz is
that deanp slash Mike Rabel are able to to basically
um manufacture he can get past them right like that.

(15:41):
That's kind of how Bortles checked down a ton Carson
Wentz not a checker downer like Marcus Mariota still isn't right,
and Marcus Mariota still isn't sold on using his legs
because you don't usually win games by passing for seventy
two yards. And that we're going to score enough points,
So I think you're Titan to score. Your Titans total

(16:04):
might be about ten high. I think just could game
where or the If that's the case, then it's gonna
be like thirty something because then the Philadelphia Eagles gonna
be on the offense the whole time is just scoring.
That's that's how I see it going, you know what
I mean? Although I guess the Titans just they take
the year out of the ball, right, they'll get you
a few first downs, and their run game, they'll milk
the clock. Their time of possession it will be kind
of high, but they're going to be settling for field goals.

(16:26):
How many sacks do you think the Philadelphia defense gets
because the middle of that Tennessee O line is now
the edges are great, Oh, I like for sure. Yeah,
and that's where Fletcher Cox is. So but although that
can play into that can play into Mariota, right, you
push him up the mill, you force him to hit
the outside, and then he's just gonna have to use

(16:47):
his legs, no matter how much he doesn't want to.
It's like, hey man, that's that's what you do. Just
deal with it, get on your horse and just get
the heck down or get out of bounce. But I
have two sacks for Philadelphia. Yeah, I'll go, I'll go.
I'll change it to nine since you say it be thirty.
You know, I can have long clock draining drives by
the Titans that result in field goals. Perfect all right

(17:08):
to the Battle of the Bees, the Bucks at the Bears,
the old Central showdown from back in the day when
it's Packers, Vikings, Lions, Bears. Bucks. Yeah, Bucks run that division.
It was weird back in the day. It's what we had.
But here we go, Buccaneers at Bears. What do you got.

(17:28):
I have a bear down victory in this one, Christie.
That's a lot of points given up by that defense.
It sure is. And you know what I like about
this one. Remember that smell when fall starts, you know,
like we're both through the Midwest, that autumn smell. I
think that's gonna be great and that's going to make
it even more not fun when Kohlee al Mac just
crushes the soul of whoever recording back quarterbacking this team.

(17:51):
And by the way, I ran it with Fits and
I ran it with Winston, and the difference not that much.
Winston is like a like here, I can use my
baseball analogy here, right, So the strikeouts, So Winston is
like a high strikeout picture. Right, He's either gonna strike
you out, you're gonna hit home runs, whereas Fits and
not Fits of weeks one and two. But Fits over

(18:12):
the course of who Fits is a more a more
accurate profile of Fits is a little more like a
you know, a solid like he gives up some base
runs and he's just not the strike high, strikeout guy
that you've got. He's not Kershaw. I was thinking as
a hitter as opposed to connection. Now now you're talking
to pure Yeah, yeah, you know whatever. He's a jump
picture is what you're saying. Yeah, it's not right or no,

(18:33):
pitch into contact, Yeah, pitch you into contact, Yes, exactly.
Go Anyways, obviously, Chicago's at lead defensive pressure is really
what changes tips the scales when Chicago's defense overall is
very good and when you kind of do the equation
of like, this is how good Chicago's defenses versus this
is how good Tampa Bay's offense is, and then you
do the equation on the other side, it's more like,

(18:54):
Tampa Bay is great at stopping the run, and we'll
slow Chicago down, but Chicago's defense is gonna be really
hard for Tampa Bay to overcome even if we still
have him on. If the star comes back, what do
you know that it's the number one yardage offense in
the league. Right, three weeks, I mean yes, but by
times I'm saying technically it is, right, Okay, it's the

(19:14):
number one what passing offense in the league. Correct, it's
the number thirty rush offense in the league, and they
are taking on arguably the best pass rush in the NFL.
It's not a good matchup for them if you can't
be at least kind of sort of balanced with Payton
Barber and Quiz Rodgers and right, well, thirty two yards
that's not gonna be enough. Yeah, thirty yards against the
Steelers probably not the way to do it. And you

(19:35):
know what happens when you don't see a lot of
yards or help on the run game, you see turnovers.
And that's exactly what we saw with a three interception
for Fits. Accuracy goes way down when you don't have stability,
when you don't have a bound Khalil Mack and Akeem
Hicks and Lenny Floyd pinning their ears back and coming
after you, and all those passing yards have been what
I mean, you know, you want to talk about you

(19:56):
know pictures. I mean, it's it's Fits just pounding his
mit pound own pound pound throw I mean that, and
you know, deep balls to Mike Evans and to Shawan
Jackson that's not happening in this game with that pass
rush chance just looks like a bad on paper, it
looks like a bad matchup for the Bucks. And it's
a good Trey Burton touchdown. Yes, I like that. I
like Trey Burton in the middle of the field for

(20:17):
Mitch trip. I feel like it's a get healthy Mitch
Drubisky game. It's like, hey, Jordan Howard's been running the ball. Well,
you know, we've got a solid pass rush in a defense.
We're playing these tight games. Let's see if we can
get this Mitchell Droubisky thing going, because that's why they
hire me. Unless he becomes Brian Billick, right, and he's
his offensive genius and he shows up in town and
he's got this dominant defense and he just rides at
the victory because hey, that's what I got. So I'm
just gonna change my game plan and whatever today is

(20:41):
that it's in the office today. Maybe that was like
a seed that was playing it in the recesses of
my cerebrum. Um. I'm gonna go bears bigger than that.
I'm taking these big. You're you're going tight up, going big,
going bears By by a touchdown, and and guess what
the controversy will be on ways whoever starts, whoever starts,

(21:01):
it will be a contracce does the same person who
starts finish. I'm gonna go with no. Yep, I'm with
you on that. I'm gonna go with no Bengals Falcons.
This one's a big one. I got the Falcons big
at home twenty one. Why Atlanta? Their offense is so multidimensional.
They can establish a run, they can manufacture a quote

(21:22):
run game by pass catching running backs. And Matt Ryan,
by the way, he can deep. He can pass deep
now and the red zone eight for eight, I mean, look,
that's to me, that's a very that's a lot of
Eight for eight. Is not enough data for me to
say that they fix their red zone problems, but it
is a step in the right direction, and especially against
the way the Cincinnati defense plays. Their linebackers are where

(21:45):
you target Matt Ryan. You can target anyone at any level,
so really targeting the Cincinnati linebackers is how Matt Ryan
will score most of his touchdowns. Yeah, hello, Calvin Ridley,
someone that we talked Calvin le just a tactician, heck
of a route runner and and a perfect compliment to
Julio Jones. If you're going to leave a corner out
on an island with Ridley he is, I'm not. It's

(22:08):
a stupid thing to say, but I'll just say. I mean,
when you think of Ridley, think of someone like Keenan Allen,
where the size isn't gonna blow you away, this straight
speed isn't gonna blow you away. But when you watch
him run routes, he is so good getting in and
out of his brakes and being where he needs to
be for an anticipation thrower like Matt Ryan, and it's
just a perfect marriage. And I think when you have
that balance, Like the only reason they lost that game
last week is because they lost a coin flip. You know,

(22:29):
whoever won that coin toss was gonna spot touched on
and win that game. I mean, that's just that's all
it was. So I'm with you. I I don't think
that since, especially with a bang up a j Green
and a bank up Joe Mixon, they're not gonna be
able to keep up. I'm with you, Andy Dalton, I'm
gonna give Andy Dalton a little bit of just one
little I'm sticking up for Andy Dalton here. I went
through and watched that last game again this afternoon, and

(22:50):
three of his four picks weren't even his fault. There
were like weird things that bounced off someone's back, like
ricochet all that stuff. And yes, the falcons are missing.
They added um Ricardo Allen to the I r he.
I think it's as Achilles. I can't remember, but he
has now gone another safety. So they are missing pieces
on this defense, which is why with scores as you know,

(23:12):
as high as it is overall and tech mckiley didn't
play last week. That was crazy. Honestly, I don't know
if text he's limited in practice as of the closest
time to taping this pod, so there is a way
for I'm not you know, the models prot absolute mess defensively.
You're right, so so that's it's totally possible. But the

(23:32):
problem is is when you don't have the run game
and you didn't have mixing. Yes, giove Varnie Bernard square
a touchdown, so fantasy people love him, but the impact
of mixing on every down is a lot different than
Giovanni Bernard And by the way, I have seventy one
in favor of Falcons, just just so you know, pretty
big number. They're prettty big, pretty big number. They're all right,
I'm with you, I go Falcons. Um. Now these this,

(23:55):
this is another category for us, and these are you know,
consensus sa as. You know that that these games should
be a certain outcome. Your model says, nah, I'm kinda
step back. I got either a bigger win or a
tighter game. Uh so slow, you know. I I mentioned it.

(24:18):
We're gonna start bills at Packers, and I'm gonna start
here before you give us your big your big score.
But I saw in the second half, and I don't
know what the hell Brian Dable was thinking in the
first half against the Chargers, but for whatever reason, he
just had Josh Allen sitting in the pocket and the
Chargers were teeing off on him. Second Avvy came out,
he cut Alan loose. There were designed runs, there were
ad lib runs, and that dude is a nightmare to

(24:39):
bring down because he's fast and he is freaking huge.
Just think of Ben Roethlisberger that kind of size, or
Philip Rivers that kind of size, but an athlete, a
guy that can stride it out and run a four
five forty um And that's when he did against the Vikings.
I mean, you know he was remember Ben used to be,
and now he's just kind of big and lumbering and

(25:00):
and Josh's spry and athletic, and I mean he's like
stiff arm and dudes and shuk and dudes. And if
you deploy that, it's just it's a it's a can.
Look it's not cam, but it's that type of weapon.
I mean, a big ass quarterback that can pound his
head into the middle of a line and push a
pile forward. Would you call him a root and tut
and high falutant son of a gun from oh Wyoming?
He is? That is exactly right, And I love that.

(25:23):
I absolutely love that analogy and that reference. All right,
enough of my bs. What do you got there? Twenty
seven nineteen Packers. I think people think it's going to
be a much bigger Packers victory because of course at
home in lambeau Field, and it's it's gonna be cold
there too. But yes, I do have them winning in
seventy point seven percent of the simulations. But it's not crazy.

(25:47):
It's not so totally crazy that the that the Bills
really just kind of let that Josh Allen flag fly
and let and let some interesting things happen, especially gins
the secondary that is targetable in fact, if you are
super duper duper death sprit and fantasy health and Benjamin
is actually considerable depending right there. All right, but look,

(26:08):
Green Bay is going to keep their offensive bounce. I
actually think Aaron Jones will see it uptick. He had
take six yards per carrey, but only six carries. And
it's and the other thing and the one thing I
have to give a shout out for and you're you know,
shout out um. Jerry Hughes. Jerry Hughes owned the left
side of Minnesota's O line. He owned Riley Reef last game.
Jerry Hughes, so big pressure guy from the Bill's defense.

(26:33):
He I was impressed. And those turnovers the reason that
the Minnesota game, the Bills beat the Vikings because they
got pressure and caused turnovers early in the game and
they kind of never were able to like get right
after that. So Jerry Hughes, good job, I'm proud of you.
Looking for he did it to the Chargers old line
in the second half to the third quarter, I should say,

(26:54):
and then they adjusted. But I'll depart. I'm gonna go
Green Bay Big two touchdowns to touch down, ok yeah,
just because when I look, I mean, you mentioned Hughes,
but when I get beyond that, I see Trent Murphy,
Williams Old, Starlod Milano, Edman's young Alexander love him. But
you know what I mean, it's just their corners aren't

(27:15):
terrible either. To give them. There's there's trade Avious White.
I mean that it was good. You know, Tevious is good.
Everybody else to me on that defense is just kind
of try Cynthia to me, you know, I'm looking for
a nickname like Matt money Smith. Try Cynthia is you
don't want that? Trust me year old and he's got
to call himself money. It's horrible. So I'm going I'm
going to four yard Aaron Rodgers passing to touchdown Vick

(27:40):
three uh Texans at Colts. Okay, So I have twenty
four three Texans so they can go on the road.
It's not crazy talk, not even like saying crazy. Listen,
this is the least certain one in my model fifty
point four percent of the simulations come up, So you're right,
totally crazy, um it. Ultimately, defensive pressures are coming back

(28:02):
and Deshaun Watson has positive indicators. So here's what it is.
Deshaun Watson has been under pressure for almost all of
the snaps. Okay, not almost all, but the greatest percentage
of his snaps, and they will get it together. They
will figure it out. Lamar Miller flags as someone who's
playable and fantasy. I can't even believe I'm saying that.
But it's one of those things where the indicators for
like the week before, success happens in the past. So

(28:25):
when you look to see when you in the model,
what it does is it searches for things that are
like other things. So when you see a team that
profiles like the Texans and profiles like what DeShawn, what
we saw from DeShawn last game, and what we saw
from j J. Whte getting those pressures back in gear
and really them all working together, it does profile for wins.

(28:45):
It's hard to say, but if it's gonna be this game,
but this is one where that old line is targetable.
I hear you. I have no problem with that. Um
I guess my big problem is I just don't buy
the Texans. I think this is one of those teams
that's a mess. After the first quarter of the Sea
Reason and you start hearing all the whispers about head
coach and boy, what happened to our quarterback? Remember when
he was great? And new Copkin starts complaining because he's

(29:08):
someone who really likes getting big stats and wide receivers
like targets. I've never heard that the way you get
from the ball, you know, the more you start barking,
you sat here. I got a great one for you.
Research about various Leonard. I do Bill, my favorite rookie
not named Derwin James. What do you got, Bill? Find
us Watson hasn't won a game when trailing at any point.

(29:29):
That's a great stat he done, Bill A plus for Bill,
that's Incredibit is a great one. And I have to
do is go up, Just go up and Watson's toast.
That is good. Yeah. This guy Darius Leonard, who is
I don't even know what he had last week. I
think it was something like sixteen tackles. I think he

(29:50):
had fourteen tackles against the Redskins. I mean, this dude,
is he's he's omnipresent, he's ubiquitous, he's everywhere. I mean,
it is crazy how good this rookie linebacker has been
for the Coals. And he's so good. He's made Marcus
Hunt relevant, a guy that was like an ultimate bust
and a big swing by the Bengals. Um and those

(30:13):
two guys have just had a huge impact. And we
all normally Cooker is great if he's healthy and on
the field. So they've got I said this last week
numb repeating myself, But I just do yourself a favor.
Watch if you if you have an opportunity to watch
some Colts, get yourself game pass from NFL dot com.
Get the game pass and watch this guy out of
South and it's it's impressive. But what about Andrew Luck.

(30:36):
They didn't put him in for that hail Mary at
the end, and then you look, that's crazy. Then he's
basically the lowest air yards and the lowest air distance
something like seventeen point five yards. That's crazy low, Like
what's going on with That's terrifying to me? If you're
you know, is it it's like under attempt it's five
point five? Is it a pitch? Count is it a

(30:57):
like that's crazy? So that was one to me is
that's a tough one to reconcile when all that pressure
is gonna be come in his face. Well, and I
guess that's that Maybe that's a positive, right if if Andrew,
if Andrew Luck can't hold onto the ball and try
to push it down feel like he has throughout his career,
maybe it gets it out and he doesn't have to
contend with that pass rush because he's forced to do that.
You know, it could almost to some degree be a

(31:17):
blessing in disguise against this Texans pass rush that he's
just got to spread it out to his backs. His
tight ends are going. I am yeah, go different. I
like when going Colts, uh forty nine at Chargers, what
do you guys? Well, in a shocking turn of events,
the Chargers come out on top number that it is

(31:39):
a big number, but it's the most certain in terms
of who actually wins eighty one point one percent of
the time in the model. They turn out to be
the wind. That shouldn't be surprising at all, but seventeen
two touchdown difference. Biggest reason super easy one here injuries,
quarterback substitution, c J. Be Third is there's a lot

(32:00):
of stats that can show why he's a lot different
from Jimmy. That's the difference, so accurate. Take the word
different is a nice way of mes saying I'm trying
to Yeah, I got it. Um and obviously Joey both
being out as a big deal. I think we just
saw something that he's going to be out until they're
bye week. So I heard I heard that a few
weeks ago, and that's finally public. We did not tell

(32:23):
us you know here things and they tell you not
to say anything but you and that's a big one.
This will set the tone for the Chargers. They have
a very favorable stretch, you know, Niners Raiders. Yeah, and
by the way, and Titan Richard Sherman's gone. I mean,
there's so many things that are missing. There's many pieces
that are missing from this forty nine offense and defense
that really drives the difference there. Yeah, I mean, look,

(32:45):
they still have a really good front seven ubsolutely line
and you know, the Chargers defensive line is down to starters,
so that could be maybe a path where they present
a challenge. Is Armstead and Buckner and Solomon Thomas and
then you got those linebackers impressed, so I think that's
that may be a way for them to stay in this.
But I think with Matt Breeda banged up, with Alpha

(33:05):
Morris out now, you can't lean on a run game.
Marquis Goodwin is still hard. It's not a great spot
for CJ. Be third. I don't need to add much
to this. I think we can move on from this one.
Although why I do not have much to add to that,
there is something I do have that at here because
this is important. But as we like taking care of you,
people are listeners. So if you are interested in being

(33:28):
as comfortable as you could possibly be with your undergarments
in particular, Look, you get all bound up down below,
and next thing you know, you're kind of moving around
and you're adjusting yourself and you're in a meeting. Everyone's like,
what the hell's wrong with this guy over here? Look,
take care of yourself, Mac Weldon. I'm talking underwear, socks, undershirts.
They look good, they perform and they have You know, what,

(33:50):
what did you just say, Cynthia. You just said it
was a euphemism, right, You're using a euphemism to try
to take it easy on someone. The folks over at
mac Weldon they use a euphemism as well. They say
that their undergarments are anti microbial. You know what that means, Cynthia?
Would you would you like to know what that means,
that they're anti microbial? Please tell me. It means that

(34:12):
they eliminate odor. All right, you smell that's the reality.
Maybe that's your problem. We all have our issues. If
yours is that you kind of get a little white
by the end of the day, then this could help
you out. And that look, they're very comfortable. I speak
from experience. I'm a big fan of the Tartan print.
I happen to like trunks, maybe like the eight inch boxer.

(34:33):
Whatever it is you're into, give it a go, and
you really you don't lose anything. Why because if you
don't like your first pair, just keep it and they'll
still refund you. That's how confident they are that once
you try out mac Weldon, you will find your undergarment
of record for the rest of your life. And that's
no questions asked. So I bought it because well, I smell.
I smell terrible and I was tired of being that

(34:55):
guy around the office that everyone comes money. I always
had my nose in my pit trying to figure out
if I was pitting what. That's when I found Mac Weldon,
and you should too. I gotta do is visit Matt
Weldon dot com. Enter our promo code game theory. When
you get to check out, that will give you off
your first order. Try it again. If you don't like it,

(35:15):
tell them you don't like it, they'll refund your money,
but you get to keep your socks or your underwear.
You know, I would recommend the underwear that's me personally,
but hey, whatever you're into, give it a go though.
Mac m A. C. K. Weldon dot com Enter au
promo code game Theory. Since he gets very uncomfortable with
these conversations, you know, she's gotta be around me. It's okay,

(35:38):
I'm comfortable saying it. Some of us need to use,
you know, the heavy duty stuff. Thankfully, Mac Weldon has
allowed me to enjoy my all natural Tom's deodorant once again.
And I'm glad to say that. Not uncomfortable at all.
Don't get your cheeks to hurt, sense, It's okay, it's okay.

(35:58):
I know it's awkward. Of all the shows that we
do the mac Weldon read for I'm not Maybe I'm
not comfortable doing it around you, but I'm okay. I'm
a guy who's all out there and I'm comfortable with
who I am. So mac Weldon dot Com promo code
game theory, You're ready, DOLPHINSI Patriots? Patriots there? Okay, Pats? Okay?

(36:21):
Sixty one nine percent of the simulations have the Patriots winning.
Pulling it together, now, I really am pull it together,
get it together? Since there are some people here who
I fake laugh at because I'm trying to be nice
at that one TV, But you're not wanting to appreciate
that my problems are issues. I recognized mine walking around

(36:42):
the office. It's okay. Why did the Patriots win? How
did the Patriots get right against the Dolphins who were
three and oh and by the way, what's Ryan Tannehill's
record before he got hurt? Like, isn't he like eleven
and one in his last twelve games now or something
like that? Yeah? Well, credit to an old dog learning
new tricks right like r PO and trick places. Gadget
place turns out a Gadget place do work. Um. The

(37:04):
interesting thing for me on this one is the fact
that the Pats defense has not been letting them get
off the field. So if account yards after contact plus
yards after the catch, no defense has given up more
yards after either a catch or contact than the Patriots
so far. So they're not tackling well, right, Like, that's
that's what you can say from that. And because of that,

(37:25):
they've kept their offense off the field. So they went
from seventy two plays on offense in week one to
forty seven in week three. That's really hard three three
against the Lions, right, So if you're going to do that,
and then on top of that, if your offense is
not going to be efficient in terms of scoring, then
you're not gonna win games. That's just the formula. So

(37:45):
both of those things are going to be corrected starting yeah,
and and really their offense will get back on track.
I mean right now, they're averaging three hundred yards per
game and I have Tom Brady slated to pass for
three hundred yards actually more than three hundred yards in
this game alone. So part of the way they do
that is exploiting matchups like you saw in the beginning
of that Dolphins game. You saw the Jordy Nelson, They

(38:07):
picked on Rashad Jones didn't play at the last minute,
so they picked on kind of a favorable matchup that
they found in the middle of the field, that seam
route he was it was. He was great on that
and they just kept going to it. And really it
comes back to Tom Brady does not He's he's the
most cerebral quarterback out there. He can find the matchups
and exploit them. You're right, the deep passing isn't there.
It'll come back this week and in future weeks. I

(38:29):
still have the Patriots winning the a f C. So
fear not Patriots. Yeah, I think this is I think
this is reputation, right, I mean that that's what this
is because when you look at you know, the performance
thus far a lot to be desired for the Patriots.
When you look at their personnel on paper, you're like,
I guess they were missing Trade Flowers and they were

(38:50):
missing Patrick Chung. Patrick Chung's like their centerpiece, right, that
stirs the drink. That stirs the drink, and if you
have they were I went back and watched like they're
using three linebackers. That's a lot, but they're not really
playing that. Their linebackers the linebacker. He's like a stack
backer something crazy with their with their fronts, so they're
they're just there. They couldn't get off the field. Their
defense couldn't get off the field. This is uh, the

(39:12):
the Aaron Rodgers UH syndrome for me, because I'm with you.
It's like, yeah, the Patriots aren't going to start one
in three. You know, the Dolphins are not going to
start four and zero. That's not how this works. Now,
what will happen is, yeah, you do, you have it
a lot tighter than but but and that wouldn't surprise me.
I think, like I said, like we said, I mean,
Tannehill has been playing well. Adam Gaze is a great

(39:32):
play caller. He like you said, I mean, look at
look at what Sean mcbay's done for the Rams. Look
away Andy Reid routinely does. Uh. There are just guys
that are good play callers. And like Kyle Shanahan's another one,
you know, and Adam Gates belongs in that conversation. And
that's how you keep things closed. Think of it like
in college football, right when you're Alabama, you can play
a pro style offense line up and say, hey, it's

(39:53):
our best against your best. Guess what we're gonna do.
Kick the crap out of you. When your Kentucky, you
gotta run a spread and you've got to do something
different because that's the only way you can win. And
I think Adam Gates has recognized that and and with
what he has to work with, he's got to get
creative and and run these r p o s and
run gadget plays because that's the way he's got to

(40:14):
win with the players that he has. And he does
it darn good job of it. And that's why you
keep scores like this close when you're at a disadvantage.
I think the trick here is Mike Gasecki or him blocking,
or I think we see a Devonte Parker touchdown. It
could be a Micasecki game. It could be he could
be but it's but but I think it's the I

(40:35):
think it's the DeVante Parker. But but here's what it is.
They're a team more than any of these other teams
that are winning, even two and one teams. They need
to play complimentary football. They have the defense, the defensive
front has to and we've seen sometimes they've been able
to pressure. They're missing William Hayes. Now, so it's gonna
be different. So honestly, it's like that complementary football is

(40:55):
absolutely needs to keep happening and their offense needs to
stay super efficient if they have as to upset the paths.
And for me, I think the Pats get them out
of rhythm. Yeah, I'm with you. I'll take the Pats,
all right, Brown's Raiders. What do we got? Okay, Browns
come into the black hole and leave with the win. Three.
That's the second least that's the second least confident. Okay,

(41:17):
So that's this is your second tightest game, second tightest game.
And part of it it is, honestly the Browns defense,
especially on passing downs, especially in the middle of the field.
Look at Joe Schobert, look at Denzel where Terrence, Mitchell,
Myles Garrett, the front, the corners and linebackers, they're all
really working together. And you know what's not been super
great that I usually love Raiders O line, they've allowed

(41:39):
constant uptick in pressure from it's and you know, you've
seen Derek carved turnovers and it bad times. They've been
able to Yeah, they've been able to script plays in
the beginning. You see in the beginning of the game.
You see that, you see the John Gruden effect in
the beginning, they're able to exploit those scripted plays. He's
great with. But you know what, when it comes crunch time,
fourth quarter, that's when those turnovers are happening, and those

(42:01):
are like super key times that you can't turn the
ball over. It just can't. Right. So that's the tackles
that Donald Penn's done. He's he's he's finished. Miller just
a year and he is. He's a wonderful guy and
a great story. I mean, considering the undrafted uh you know,
but but again, the problem, the problem with the Raiders

(42:22):
and look, they should have drafted Derwin James. I don't
know what the hell they were thinking and taking Colton Miller. Um.
I mean, they wanted Mike McGlinchey. He wasn't there. They panicked,
they needed help on that offensive line, and they took
a guy who's probably a year away at least. He's
super athletic, he's super long, he's just not ready to
be a left tackle yet. Um. And as good as that,
that's as good an interior line as there is with

(42:42):
Hudson Assemele and Jackson but the Edges, they're getting wrecked. Um.
That said, I'm still going to take the Raiders m
just because I I think last week was was was
flukey for the Browns. I think it was a little
bit flukey. Um. You know, I'm not taking anything away
with what Baker did that as impressive a team that
had not one in whatever six hundred days. They're down

(43:04):
fourteen points. The dude comes in, It electrifies the stadium
and a team, and they end up winning a contest.
That's huge. But it was just flukey. The Jets weren't blitzing,
they weren't for him. It made no sense. So I'm
gonna say, we're not getting out of this conversation without
Baker's without Baker right where, we can't get through this

(43:25):
conversation without it. And I'm gonna say, I'm going on record,
we always we always say mean things about the Raiders secondary,
but you know what, they're actually praying pretty well in coverage.
Garon Conley looks great, Daryn Conley is healthy. That's I mean,
it's not that it's a bad secondary, it's just you know,
especially Gary Conley and Karl Joseph. I mean, those are
players they've just dealt with injuries, Marcus Gilchrist whatever, I mean,

(43:48):
I'm in different there, and I'm going Karl Jo Gary
Conley or who that's better safety? You got it back.
But look, Baker, though, Baker's the Baker's the reason that
tips the scales. I mean, obviously the offense is the
reason that that's the most predictive, but Baker is the
reason why I'm like not going to go back and
figure out, like if there's something in my model that's broken,
because the Baker brings something special. Baker, they don't they

(44:10):
don't know what to expect from him. Yet, they don't
know they're not gonna have a ball for him. He
throws a great ball, he's accurate. It seems like he's
keeping kind of people happy. Keeping Jervis Landry happy is
a very important thing. I know that sounds stupid, but
it's true. Keeping him happy is a big deal. So
Baker's ability to hit all levels of the field and
actually just not carry doesn't seem faced by It is

(44:31):
a huge is a huge Like his accuracy in every
situation is a lot higher than other rookies that profile
like him. I'll just I'll leave it at this and
then if you want to add anything, right, but this
is this is kind of where I come out on this.
Hugh Jackson, for as much as the media likes him,
he can be super annoying. Uh. He's coming back to
Oakland allen me to Colisseum with his chests puffed out,

(44:53):
going like, hey man, remember when I want eight and eight?
How hard? Am I right? That's gonna happen. He's not
gonna shut up about it. You've got a team that
two and thirty four in the last two plus years. Uh.
You have Khalil Mack who is currently your odds on
favorite to win the Defensive Player of the Year. And
if you lose this game, you're now zero and four

(45:14):
and you lost a freaking Hue jack and a Browns
team that win zero and sixteen last year with a
rookie quarterback. And now you've got Jon Gruden going after
his own quarterback, Derek Carr, who could have won the
m v P three years ago, two years ago, Uh,
had he not broke his leg. And if you know,
I think it was Mike Floria who had a too
pro football talk after this year, you can cut that

(45:36):
guy on that A hund twenty million dollar deal, and
it ain't gonna hurt you. It's all year by year
after this, and you're gonna they lose this game. They
they I would project them to have the worst record.
Reggie Mackenzie be on blast. Matt Money is coming for
your job. I'm not. I'm not coming first. John Gruden
already took his job. I mean that that's already that
that's already I'm coming for John Gruden's job. It's like

(45:56):
you're gonna be drafting Justin Herbert. That's what you're gonna
be talking about. You're like, hey, I'm getting cost certain
to get the quarterback position. We're getting rid of the
guy that costs me twenty million bucks. I mean, that's like,
that's where they're gonna be if this gets sideways on
them this week. That's how big of it. Each of
these teams and I'm just spitballing here, Cynthia, before we
move on, each of these teams has one winning season

(46:18):
since two thousand two one. The Raiders have been every
bit as bad as the Browns since two thousand and two.
And if John Gruden, the hunter million dollar man, loses
to huge jack bounds, I'm telling you like it's it
is going to go down here. That's why I'm taking
the Raiders in this one, because they just they can't

(46:38):
lose this game. It's that bit. It's their Super Bowls,
all right. I've said my piece. Now I'm gonna lay
out for Saints and Giants. You can do it all,
all right. This is a Queen Saints. This one is
sixty three percent of the time the Saints end up
as the winner in the simulations. The reason the New
Orleans offense there can attack you through a run game,

(47:00):
through manufacturers run game that means pass catching by running back.
They got Michael Thomas, who know, wide receiver who know.
And it's not just his catch completion rate, it's his
ability to earn first downs, which is really what matters.
And honestly, I don't know if anyone can catch him.
This year. He's been in the slot more often, shorter passes,
more separationally. These are all good things. The only side

(47:21):
of the Giants that I want to point out it's
obviously you know. Look, I actually think in this game,
we see the defensive pressures come back from States. I
feel like I've said this now for a couple of
weeks but I think this is where we see it
come back. The only the only, my favorite positive thing
about the Giants here's Snacks Harrison because the interior of
that D line is great. So maybe Camara is gonna
have to catch more passes. I mean, you've got twenty

(47:43):
targets last week, so how's he going to do that?
I wonder twenty targets? Was it fourteen receptions? Twenty targets
last week? It's crazy. I'm with you. Look at least
a touchdown and O b J touchdown too, because the
Saints defense is allowing ready wait for it, thirteen point
six yards per target, not yards reception, yards per target
target to wide receivers. Yeah, there's something really cool about that. Yeah,

(48:05):
we're going back here. Lions and Cowboys. Oh you ready? Roar?
I like it. I like the Lions too. I don't know.
I don't know why more people aren't on the Lions.
I do not get this this. Uh we we like
the Cowboys here? Why? What what is it about the
Cowboys you've seen so far this season that makes you
like what they're doing? I think it's probably Uh, there's

(48:25):
been a lot of heat given to Scott lind Hand
about his play calling, right, and I looked into it
because they said, oh, he calls boring plays, but who
else they got first of all, but on third down
and long like six plus, he has only called a
short reception to a running back. It's not only been Zeke,
but to a running back, and it's never worked. It
hasn't converted. That's crazy. And by the way Zeke's eating,

(48:47):
it's just a lower volume. He's actually more productive on
a per carry basis or a per touch basis. But
the real reason why this one goes in favor of
the Lions Stafford and a run game versus no shan
Lee okay, and and a defensive within because it's a pressure. Yeah,
I'm I don't think it was an anomaly what we
saw against the Patriots. I think there's a team that's
settling in new coaching staff. Five picks, Matt, you keep

(49:11):
them up right and uh and good things will happen.
I remember it's Matt Stafford is from Dallas. Him and
Clayton Kershaw. Just so you know you're gonna hear that somewhere.
Do you have any photos of them playing basketball together?
You know what I'm gonna I'll see if I can
find one. You know, I always run that seems. I know,
I'm so over it. I'm so over it. I'm with you.
I take the line Seahawks, Cardinals, NFC West till Ready

(49:34):
Ready Cardinals. Six percent of the simulations got on the
road Rosen intermediate passes. That's all this is. Larry fitz
gets back involved, David Johnson, Christian Kirk. Honestly, I really
I think that there. Arizona's secondary is their defense kept

(49:58):
them in it last game. So their second Arry plus
intermediate passes from Rosen tips the scales, and I think
we see Josh Rosen come out on top. I know
made me a fool. No, the Cardinals have made me
a fool. I liked them so much at the start
of this year. I love that old line. It's been terrible.
I love David Johnson and him making you know, a
return to for Mike McCoy. Can't figure it out, Go

(50:21):
figure uh. They have a pass rush, they have a
top shelf corner, they've got an athletic, you know, to
athletic linebackers. Like everything was there and I can't figure
out how it went so bad so fast. But yeah,
I mean, maybe it was Sam Bradford. Maybe the dudes
just lost his fastball and that's it, and we saw
it up close and personal, and Rosen can fix it.
There's always that like when they're they don't really necessarily

(50:42):
profile very similarly Brad Bradford and Rosen. So to me,
that switches in the the opportunity reinvigorates this offense and
this is a good one. I don't think Earl Thomas
will show out like he did versus Dallas last week.
So why it is interesting that a guy that doesn't
practice can get two picks in the game. But hey,
it's the NFL. These guys are That's what happens. Um, Yeah,

(51:02):
I guess I'll go with you. I was gonna go Seahawks,
but you've convinced me. Thank you, Math and thank you Cynthia.
I'll take the Cardinals as well. All right, finally, Thursday night, er,
let's go Vikings Rams. We're doing this late Wednesday, so
as of here, yes, it is I haves. That's closer
than I think you might imagine. The Rams come on

(51:24):
top and sixty percent of the simulation and the biggest
reason why the Viking shaky o line, especially the left side.
Riley Reef could have a very long night. Let's the
left tackle And just so you know, I looked into
pretty deep on this one. It's actually pretty cool. So
Cousins has been under pressure sixty two times, that's the most.
And then the next skuys forty one. That's Matt Ryan.

(51:44):
That came from our researchers, which is awesome. But if
you look to see the difference between what happens on
pressure on the left side versus the right side of
the line, the left side is twice as many, almost
twice as many turnovers, associated with almost twice as many turnovers,
and a lot less success in kind of every way
that you want to shape, want to want to slice
it here. So for me that one, yes, okay, short

(52:04):
passes target the linebackers and banged up cornerbacks cooks. The
defense is not at full strength. That's why I have
the Vikings not being able to pull it off here
in the colisseum um um. It's it's interesting. The injuries
have really made this one a lot tighter than it
should because I'm with you, and it's not even Reef

(52:25):
so much as it is the interior that line. You know,
Ramers and I think it's Crompton. Is that who's over there? Um?
Tom Compton I think is their other guard because you
get pressure from Aaron Donald who just so now you
gotta help there. They don't really have any you know
right there. And if you're Philip Rivers, but you know
you can you can mask that, you can get the
ball out quick. That's not Kirk Cousins, you know, that's
that's he's He's going to be moved off his spot

(52:47):
and he's got So what happens when Kirk Cousins gets
too much pressures last week? Um, but the secondary isn't
going to be able to force him in the coverage
sacks because you know, Shields was terrible last week. I
mean terrible. Um. I mean if you're down both Peter's
and to leave. That's the one thing about this Rams team.

(53:09):
They're ones are really good. It's probably the most talented
team when it when you just measure ones. But people
get hurt and now we're going to see it. Their
depth is nil. They have got no doubt. I mean
they got Malcolm Brown behind Todd Gurley, They've got Sean
Mannion behind Jared Goff. Their offensive line backups are brutal

(53:30):
so and Whitworth just had that knee situation, so that's again,
it's a tough one to project, just because I don't
know what it's gonna look like when it comes to
who takes the field. And I think that's why you know,
we're kind of saying, gash, if you're forcing me to pick,
I'll take the Rams because of the air and donald pressure.
But I don't like it. It's not something I'm interested.
It's not let's just say, it's not a game that

(53:51):
I would very comfortable, uh projecting who a winner and
what the score would be. Do you want to know
three things that I am confident about. I want your
confidence picks because you're seven a ten on the season.
This has been your specialty. I think it's going to
be a lower scoring game in New England than you
might think. Everyone thinks Tom Brady revenge game, he's just
gonna crazy. You see the stats against you see the

(54:12):
stats against Miami over the past however many years, and
it's just bananas and Tom Brady isn't lose three in
a row and blah. Yet New England still wins. But
that's not a ton of points, right, that's you know,
it's tighter than a lot of people think tighter and
a lower score overall. So I think a closely five
matches tight, close, low scoring game. Yep. I think Buffalo
also keeps it closer to Green Bay than people differ.

(54:34):
I differ on a confidence pick with you. I think
I actually differ on the other one too. I think
I'm like, I like, I like it to be tight.
So yes, I just differ on this one with you,
got it? And then the one that I really truly
think is so this is your number one, my number
one confidence of the week. I think there's gonna be
more points than you might imagine in Philadelphia versus Tennessee.

(54:57):
I have on that. I love it. Make a will
of me, Cynthia. But but you know what, though we
even said it, before we even said it before, it
could be like thirty five nine, you know, like but
like you say, you know, like, it could be the
the amount of points. So that I am with you.
I am I think I said, uh, I think I
said eight nine is what I had. Three field goals

(55:20):
is all the Tennessee offense, kids, So there you go,
that's what I got. If you're five nine or one
nine if that's the right, if they're only kicking you.
I think Carson Wentz, I think we think we see
some not crazy, not crazy points, but more than you
might think. Given you got a hand slap in there
around that's number one. That's number one. Confidence to yourself
in your hands. It is well. Thank you so much

(55:42):
everyone for downloading, listening, sharing. We always appreciate when you
engage us on Twitter. Uh you might want to follow
my Twitter because I think we have something fun to
do this week together. You do a lot of poles,
you do a lot of feedback, you do a lot
of engaging. Absolutely. Uh. C Freeland is her Twitter handle.
As a matter of fact, you might want to spell
it because it isn't like f r e e l
A n D. No, it's not. It's Norwegian. F r

(56:04):
e l u n D. See mine, it's not Norwegian.
It's smith s M I t H. So there we go.
Great stuff, Cynthia. As always remember she has seven attend
on our confidence picks through the first three weeks. I
suspect you will do that again and I will go
over three on my confidence picks since I disagreed with
her on all actually on to there's a lot of

(56:26):
spicy ones this week. My model got seemingly feisty to me.
And remember the Raiders lose, they're gonna stop going to
play the rest of this. It's not gonna be Matt Smith.
It's going to be Matt Money will be that Hugh
Jack will be insufferable. If you just don't want him
to do it in sufferable, I'll say it again in

(56:48):
sufferable and go to mac weldon dot com and get
yourself in Raid. All right, people use the promo code
game theory. We'll be back next week.