Game Theory and Money Week 5 Projections

Which prevails? Jacksonville's staunch defense or Kansas City's high flying offense? Cynthia Frelund ran 10-thousand computer simulations on that game, as well as every other week 5 game!! See who came out the winner the most often when it was all said and done. It's the Game Theory and Money podcast, week 5 edition!

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
Alright, welcome to our Game, Theory and Money podcast for
week five, and big thank you all of you who
have downloaded the show, who have shared the show with
others through social media. The star of this show is
the Queen of Calculus, the Ace of algebra. She uses
geometry with grace. It is the incomparable Cynthia Freeland. Advanced

(00:20):
degrees from such fine institutions as Northwestern right there on
the glorious banks of Lake Michigan and Evanstead, Illinois, and
ten thousand simulations that she has created, created and are
all her own of every single game. You not only
get the winner, but you get the exact score, and
she is going to give us all the scores plus
three predictions that she is most confident in. Cynthia, anything

(00:43):
you would like to add to that introduction, I mean,
I don't even deserve that introduction, but thank you very
much for it. Of course you do, darn it, of
course you do. Uh well, last week we can review
nine and six for the week, so but hey still
positive for the year and twenty three on the year.

(01:05):
You were two and three on your confidence picks for
the weeks. So we're gonna try to turn that around
this week, but nine of twelve for your confidence picks
on the year, so I should say two of three,
not two and three. You only make three confidence picks.
We got two of those three, right. Um. You mentioned
the Pats Dolphins was gonna see some points. We did
see a lot of points. It was one team that

(01:26):
scored those points. You said that would be a forty
five points scored. You also said the Chiefs would win
by four, which they did thanks to case keenoms and accuracy,
and you still have your Super Bowl picks looking pretty
darn sweet. Chiefs run unbeaten at four and oh and
the Saints are three and one through one quarter of
the season, So well done, Cynthia. Hey, we're getting there.
Historically things get better. So the model is the most

(01:49):
accurate between weeks four and eight, just because I'm sorry
five and eight, because we have four weeks of data
and all the teams, so now we can start to
see who they are, where becomes you know, their identity
and where what's what's gonna be the focus of this
team and what's their downfall? And by the way, I'm
gonna I guess i should say I'm six for the
year so far. Just picking who's going to win. And

(02:12):
I think if you look at you know, historical rates,
something that I try to strive for is at least
sixty five. So I'm I'm I'm in a good spot.
I'm in a good spot. We'll take that. We'll take that. Normally,
you're too humble to even pat yourself on the back
just once. No, I'm giving myself a pep talk. I'm
giving the model. Listen, the model got screwed a little
bit last week. We'll get into it a little bit.
I mean, look at some of those games, field goals, missed,

(02:35):
crazy calls, all that stuff. So you know what, though,
you can't dwell in the past, you just got to
move forward. Hey, let's go all right, Cynthia, Let's start
with the games where your model is in step with
kind of the consensus um. You're seeing what a lot
of the other folks are seeing. And we get started
with the biggest game of the week. A lot of
folks picked the Jaguars to rep the a f C,

(02:56):
and a lot of folks picked the Chiefs, or at
least one person I know picked the Chiefs to read
the a f C in the Super Bowl. That person
would be you. We got the Jaguars headed to Arrowhead
with that vaunted defense taking on one of the two
most prolific offenses in all the land. The Chiefs winner
score why winner the Kansas City Chiefs the score twenty four.

(03:20):
So the Chiefs come on top because the magnitude of
Jacksonville's offense against the not so great Kansas City defense
is less than the magnitude of the Kansas City offense
against even the excellent Jacksonville defense. So it's just strength
versus weakness and then strength versus strength, and Kansas City

(03:41):
comes out on top in this one. Okay, it is
uh like you said, strength and strength. The Kansas City
offense has been fantastic, the defense has not. The Jacksonville
Jaguars offense has been up and down. I think it's
a safe way to put it right, um, but the
defense has been pretty much on point. I'm excited about this. Um.
In terms of the model, you know, you have no
Leonard four net um, you have perhaps no Sammy Watkins.

(04:05):
How much does it get off set when you start
looking at those two things. Sammy Watkins isn't as big
of a deal for the model because there's other potential
pass catchers here that can make up for the difference.
Kansas City has run the most different types of plays
and the most successful different types of plays, if that
makes sense right, So it's the number one in different

(04:28):
so offensive diversity. And then on the route tree, six
of the nine different routes main routes, Patrick Mahomes has
actually been most efficient in so that's really cool stat
for him. And the cool part here is that we
saw Kareem Hunt last week. So I'll get back to here.
I'm not gonna forget about Leonards getting there, but that

(04:48):
we saw Kareem Hunt really come to life and the
run games start to be more of a foundation, and
that run will help their defense and that's kind of
what drives Kansas City in this one. And then London
for Net it's kind of meant and I hate to
say that because I ran it with for Net and
I ran it with Yelton. It's really no different because
we haven't seen good for Net in a long time.

(05:10):
So even if he were active, it doesn't mean he's healthy.
Right like last week we saw him leave, so it
really isn't that much different. We're going to do a
lesson in pace got it pace football pace people do
pace wrong. It's not snaps people, it's plays. And then
you gotta look at how many plays on offense and
then map it two first downs, and then you gotta
do plays on defense and map it two first downs allowed.

(05:33):
So if you look in this game, the Jags defense
is allowing the fewest first downs per game and the
Kansas City Chiefs is the most. So when you look
at those two different ratios, it's like which one which
one is going to give. The reason why this score
overall ends up so high is because in this one,
Blake Bortles deep passing allows for I know, did you

(05:56):
hear what I just said? Blake Bortles passing gold is
Dante Moncrief. Those dudes are running nine routes, so it's working.
And Blake's always had a strong arm. I mean, there's
never been an issue for him. So anyway, So back
to my pace, right, So you got to do those
first downs and the potential to earn touchdowns. It's increased
because the jet the Chief's defense is easy to target

(06:17):
in that capacity, but also the Chiefs have so many
different options that their ability to target everyone at every
different level of the field just means a lot more
points than you might think. Yeah, you know what, but
before I before I weigh in here with nonsense um,
the the idea of pace. I do want you to
weig in on something here in this an unless they

(06:39):
caught my ear um general manager and uh just gas
bag in general. Rob Polinka was asked about pace and
the Lakers and he's okale of Uh, we don't want
to play with pace, he said, he we want to
play with pace and grace rust no idea Rust. Okay,

(07:01):
do you have a do you have a metric as
someone who works in the world to pace for thrust?
You don't make any sense to you because it doesn't
make any sense to me. Sorry, okay, So here's the
sense I can make of it. It's I prefer you
just say no, it's stupid and he sounds stupid. Okay,
it's a dumb word. You should say you want to
play with pace and efficiency because if you maximize pace
and you maximize scoring efficiency, you really can't be beat. Right.

(07:24):
But if you like, for example, the Chiefs have had
more plays and more first downs on defense, they give
up more first downs than their offense creates. So if
they get behind for their offense. It's not that big
of a deal, but you saw it last week with
teams who play with low pace like the Dolphins, they're
not coming back if they get down. They don't have
enough snaps in them in order to make sure that

(07:44):
they get enough offense to get going, if that makes sense, right. So,
so that's that's really what it is. So the thrust
needs to be. It can't be like we scored a
point off of a turnover, which is why I my
biggest hot take, which isn't even that hot, is that
the Jags defense this year's actually better than last season
because they're not relying on turnovers in order to create, um,

(08:04):
their their defensive efficiency. They only have two and so
to the Kansas City Chiefs, the actually three turnovers, but
only two caused by their defense. Um, So it's it's
it's more of a it's a scheme and a spacing thing.
So the Jackson Mill defense is even better. But you
know that's so that's the thrust. If you will, I
guess the you know, for me, it's I thought the
Broncos defense was fantastic last week. I had their offense

(08:27):
helped them out. I think they win that game totally.
Look also, Emanuel Sanders. If if case Kingdom hadn't sailed
the ball on Emanuel Sander, sorry rather, then they win
the game, right absolutely, So I think the question is
what do you have more faith in. Do you have
more faith in the Jags offense being able to keep

(08:47):
up with the Kansas City offense that we think the
Jags defense is going to keep in check um or
do you have faith in Pat Mahomes and Andy Reid
and that cast Kareem Hunt. I want to make sure
everybody credit Tyreek Hill at tight ends, but yeah, he
does have too many different looks. That's the thing when

(09:09):
you have four hundred plays at your disposal, which is,
let's think like a normal team like two hundred you
get Tom Brady get like six hundred. But like for
a guy like Pat Mahomes who's not even played a
full season yet, he's got like something like four hundred
plays installed. That's a lot and it's gonna keep defensive guessing.
And by the way, you saw what he did when
he's under pressure, he doesn't get worse, right, he doesn't.

(09:30):
You don't get that erosion from him. He doesn't seem
to care. You know, it doesn't make him. He doesn't flinch,
he doesn't do any of those things. So his passer
rating reflects that. So six routes out of nine he's
most efficient. Hard to argue with that. Yeah, I think
I'm gonna take the Jacks, do it. I think I'm
gonna take the only allowed four offensive touchdowns. You know
he's not going to go undefeated, and you know, I

(09:52):
just kinda I look at the way it played out
against the Chargers, the way it played out against the Broncos,
and you'll like, even, all right, I'll take the Jugs.
Why the heck not. Yeah, I don't think they're gonna
be undefeated. I'm not saying that jess are going to
undefeated into the Super Bowl. I just think it's early
enough in the season where you haven't seen Andy Reid
pull out that full arsenal, and you have so many

(10:13):
different plays that people haven't been able to pick up
on it yet. There's just not enough film on this kid. Yes,
absolutely they will, they always do so, for sure they will,
But I don't think it's yet because of the number
of plays that there are. All right, let's move on,
let's do NFC tilt Vikings at Eagles winner and score
the winner the Philadelphia Eagles that the link at home

(10:34):
against the Minnesota Vikings four. It's a high scoring game.
Vikings o line is so undependable. We saw it from
Riley Reef against the Bills, we saw it from the interior.
Tom Compton got Aaron Donald is very hard to deal
with in general, but Tom Compton did not do a

(10:55):
good job of that. And Philadelphia their ability to pressure
from all these different angles. And yes I saw some
guys on the on the injury port Fletcher Cox should play.
I don't know about Brandon Graham whatever, but you know,
keep an eye on that, of course, but I still
think they have too many different pressure options. However, you'll
notice that's a pretty high score. Both these teams haven't

(11:15):
gotten there. You know, we did see the Vikings in
a shootout with the Rams, but both of these teams
have kind of been kind of weird compared to what
we thought maybe in the beginning of the season. So
I do think it's a higher scoring game than than
than you probably thought at the earth the beginning of
the week. But whence going back and tracking that arrow
is straight up on Wentz into the pocket, out of
the pocket, rushing what he can create the time he has.

(11:38):
Nelson Aglar dropped three balls on him alone. You know,
you saw zach Ert, You saw all these different weapons
emerging again and again. Carson Wentz was so good last
year because of offensive diversity. Same thing here again. Yeah,
we have, you know, injuries on both sides. Obviously, Dalbin
Kick didn't Dalvin Cook didn't look right, didn't look right
at least against the Rams on that Thursday night. So

(11:59):
in extra a couple of days of them to get
right that old line. I was surprised it held up
pretty well until the very end of the game against
the Rams. And for whatever reason, well, they're putting two
guys on Aaron Donald every two three guys in Aaron
every single time, you do, you know, and you just
have to compensate for the fact that that abu common.
Those guys are going to have to win their one
on ones, and they really did. But the interesting thing

(12:21):
to me about this is these are two of the
best defenses from last year and neither of them look good.
The crossing routes the Eagles second, I thought, okay, we've got,
you know, deep passes. We saw to seventy yarders thrown
against the Eagles defense. All right, okay, whatever that that
can happen just on game, but crossing routes against last

(12:42):
week against Tennessee miss tackles like at a at a
rate you didn't see them do at any point in
the season last year. So you're right, that was that
was pretty crazy to me. I would like to say
that I'd lean Eagles because the Vikings offense with the
injurieda Dalvin cooking him still had to come back. It's
just too one dimensional. But it doesn't seem to matter,

(13:04):
you know it. Just it seems like the you can
throw the ball all over the yard and not have
balance and still win games. But that said, I think
you're right. I think Carson shake the rostoff last game.
Let's roll this game and you'll start seeing that Eagles
offense hum a little bit more. On. The defense is
certainly good enough, you would think to uh to hold

(13:24):
up a one dimensional offense. Well, and look, one last
note to just I'm shocked because I really liked the
Vikings defense going into this season. I really like the
pressure capability. It hasn't been there obviously. Of course they're
Don Griffin. Right, they are, but usually the safety help
is like really strong. It did not look that way there,
and I picked on him all week and we keep

(13:45):
doing At Michigan State. Finest Trey Waynes has looked not
at all scary for their you know, and they're in
they're of their defensive back so they're very targetable. And
even last and I love this guy. I love number
twenty nine. He's one of my favorite corners the league
to watch. But holy cow, he he looked very beatiful
last week. Brandon Cooks what well, I mean, I think

(14:09):
that what I was talking about. But but it's like
Brandon Cooks just like had his number right. I think
the I think the issue two and just speaking, you know,
haven't seen Sean McVeigh and uh in person. They've they've
just figured it out. You know. McVeigh does not exchange personnel.
He runs, you know, three wide receivers, one tight end,
one back. It's eleven personnel and he moves. He will

(14:32):
run three different motions and before you know it, the
ball is being snapped and you have a linebacker on
one of those receivers and you know it's not even
it's not even roads it's that you've got Anthony Barr
trying to keep up with Brandon Cooks or Robert Woods
or coming out of the backfield Todd Gurley, because they
figure it out and I know defenses will catch up.

(14:54):
But that's what these teams are doing. That's what Andy
Reid's doing, That's what what Sean McVeigh is doing. And
I don't know how you solve it because I saw
it last year when the Chargers had to play Hayes
Pillard because Denzel Paraman was out, and they did it
to him endlessly. In the Chiefs game. It was they
figured out how to get Tyree Kill being checked by
a linebacker and it burned him every wave to use

(15:16):
a surfing term. Um, yeah, I'm with you. I'm going
Carson Wentz Eagles over the Vikings. Vikings gotta show us something, man.
They spent all that money on Kirk Cousins. He was
supposed to be the missing piece. Obviously they have some
injury issue. He has been pressured the most for anyone
in the league, and gonna give him some credit there. Well,
That's that's what's interesting too, is last year was me
poop poo and the Vikings because I didn't like their

(15:37):
offensive line, and this year you're now seeing those leaks
that for whatever reason, you're just not show up last year. Yeah,
all right, how about Ravens Browns? All right, now, the
Ravens coming out on top. One. The Ravens offense, Raven's
offense is good people. Yeah, looks great, absolutely, And you
know what they're doing. They're doing kind of like what

(15:58):
we're talking about. They're creating mismatches. Flacco looks great. He's
throwing into tight windows, which is something we didn't see
him do last year. John Brown has emerged his true
number one. He leads the league in area yards per
target with twenty one point nine. They're creating opportunities for
separation and then when they're not, he's throwing in the
tight windows and his receivers are rewarding him with catching
the ball. So the Browns defense, which I think is

(16:20):
still very good, don't get me wrong. I just think
they can get confused. They're the youngest defense in the NFL.
The game script in Oakland was a mess on both sides.
They were calling crazy things that when you go back
and you're like, wow, this is like creative. That's maybe
the nice way of putting it, and they were getting tricked.
So they're very trickable and Flacco has been really like

(16:41):
just I mean what I think about for like one
en passing yards per game, mostly small sample size, but
they're gonna do things. I mean, the one thing that
jumps out at me is and and we said this
after week one, we said, hey, look, be careful because
the Ravens played the Bills and they went up on
the forty to nothing and one three. So the stats

(17:03):
are gonna be skewed, and I'm sure they're still skewed.
They are, but at the same time, they've played Ben Roethlisberger,
they played case Keenen who was in an NFC championship
game last year. They've played Andy Dalton along with the
Bills in Nate Peterman, and they're still the number one
quarterback rating against team by a wide margin sixty nine
point one. You think Baker Mayfield and his second start

(17:25):
as good as he's looked, That's It's one thing to
carve up a Raiders defense. It's another to go up
against arguably the number one defense in the league that's
specifically tough on quarterbacks exactly. They get Jimmy smith Back
and Brandon Cars played well. I mean there's a lot
of their right. I mean, there's a lot of things
that are really pointing to this team. I want to
say one thing about the Browns defensive turnovers though, and

(17:47):
they do lead the league still in turnovers and turnovers
that we give to this argument, not me and you obviously,
but like whatever, I'll argue with youth not. Some people
think interceptions are lucky or turn and over lucky. Some
people think, like me, that it really depends on each
and evert whatever exactly. So I wasaway saw that thing.

(18:08):
You know, you had two of his two of his No,
of his two picks, one of them was not his car.
You could argue both because of pressure up the middle. Uh,
that second one that he threw, you had pressure right
in his face from from Hurst. That that's gonna affect
the way you throw. If you take a snap and
you're supposed to take a three step drop and bang
that ball out, and and Maurice Hurst is in your

(18:28):
lap before you can even look up, and you're supposed
to have a quick you know, just you're throwing like
a quick hitch. You could almost argue that's not his
fault either. So I'm with you, and you were right
about this. You were totally right, and I'm and the
huge stuff was hilarious to me, especially how defensive he
got after people questioning his game calling. And I really
I did. I went back specifically just to look to see.

(18:49):
And I'm not talking about the fourth and inches that
was from the eighteen and they punted and people like,
why don't you go for it and blah blah blah blah.
I'm not talking about controversial call. I'm not talking about
how I got screwed in this game in terms of
who won, but whatever. But I'm going to say that
the play call when they were up big was very unprobable, improbable.
I don't do English, I do know your math whiz, right,

(19:09):
so it was very counterintuitive to what solidifies game wins
when you're up by a significant amount. So it's all
whose fault. I should have been at least ten and five,
if not more. Thank you, Hugh. Just listen to me.
Listen to me. And I said, Hugh Jackson can't win
this game. It can't happen. It can't happen. Oakland will

(19:30):
burn with all the hot air he breathing all over
the place. All right, let's shift to Falcons at Steelers.
What he got? He got Steelers Falcons twenty six in
this one. So I don't think everyone's talking about this
like potential shootout. And yes it that's how the potential
to be shoot out everything one looks. But you know what,
I think we would put a lid on it. I
don't think it's going to be crazy. I mean, just

(19:51):
because everybody's pushing that way, everybody's zigging. You want to zag?
Is that what it is? Anthea? Well, now you're a
math person. You don't care about emotions, you don't care
about conjecture, the subject of folks. You want to look
at the numbers. What do they say that They say
that both teams to be able to run more efficiently
than we saw in there. That would be a miracle.
The Steelers running game has been terrible. It's gonna be good.

(20:12):
I said, it's going to be more efficient. I hear you.
I'm just saying it would be something because look, we
saw it in the first week right where James Conner
was running great and everybody was celebrating them, and and
even though it ended in a tie or whatever, it
was that you know, he was the guy and we
just haven't seen it since it's been a mess. And
really outside at the castor on that offensive line, I

(20:32):
don't want to think, God, you know, to to try
to blow those lanes open. I mean, look the I'm
not unless it's a matchup because I know what Lamb
was about to say. I'm not going to try to
point out something bad here. But if you look at
the Falcon, safeties are gone, they're starting. Safeties are gone.
Linebackers gone, linebackers gone. Last game, they did some some

(20:54):
interesting moves when it came to who matched up with whom.
Their whole their corners are in different spots than normal.
The ones who were still around. They were trying to
make up for their safeties. They basically were like, let's
shake everyone up and just you pick a number and
we're gonna you're gonna go block this person. And it
didn't work. It was it was not the right opportunity
against the Bengals, and you saw what happened. I mean

(21:15):
it was it was definitely a high scoring game, but
you know that was a little not probable. But on
the other side, the Steelers secondaries just as targetable it's
just as they're small, they're and they're not playing, they're
not lining up well, they're creating more separation year over year,
like by the biggest margin in the league, in the
league than last season. So that you're right when I

(21:38):
understand why everyone think it's gonna be super high scoring
because it's like, well, you gotta pass because you know
running isn't gonna work. But I don't know if I
don't think that that's going to happen. Davonte Freeman figures
to be back and if you look at like power backs, right,
and so two back sets. It was a Shanahan staple
and that was part of why they were so efficient
in twenty what year was that sixteen when they made

(21:59):
it to the SUPERB. I don't know if Sark's going
to do that, but that was something that has worked
versus the Steelers, So that was an interest. That's an
interesting wrinkle that if they start doing that, you know,
those two back sets or bring a fullback in, then
you're gonna be able to see some some better running, rushing, running, rushing,
what every one it all works. This is what ultimately

(22:19):
this game to me will come down to what I
like to call the movable force versus the stoppable object
because they both stink on third down. The Steelers offense
is terrible on third down. That's why they're getting behind
in these games because because their defense is bad too,
so they're not converting and getting off the field. Their

(22:41):
defense is gassed and they're getting gashed. Uh. And the
Falcons defense is because you just mentioned Ricardo Allen gone,
con O'Neil gone, Dion Jones gone, they're getting gashed on
third downs. So it's gonna kind of come down to
is good too, by the way, So I mean it's
it's gonna come down to pretty much, Okay, you both
are blemished, which one of you can overcome it? And

(23:04):
that's likely what's gonna determine what happens in this game.
And I almost wonder, you know, if getting DeVante Freeman
back and you can maybe be a little more balanced
offensively and just give your defense arrest because they're so thin,
maybe they can come out ahead here. Because I mean, look,
if they had won the coin toss against the Saints,
I think they would have won that game. Uh. It

(23:24):
was a weird ending to that contest against Cincinnati, Like right,
I mean I know they're one in three, but man,
the games have just been weird. Um And I look
at the Steelers and I say, it just looks like
a team with a lot of issues. It looks like
a team that had a couple of miracles happened with
like with the box. Uh, they probably should not have
tied Cleveland five turnovers and somehow they manage a tie

(23:47):
in that game. It looks like a team that's a mess.
To me, Atlanta looks like a team that clearly is
bad defensively, but it's just had some kind of weird
bounces that have led to their losses. At that. I
got you. I know, I completely I got you. And
I think, by the way, I think that both teams
have wide receivers that have been helping on none when
they're not targeted. Their off ball help has been incredible.

(24:09):
Calvin Ridley's precise route running, Schuster precise route running, Mohammed
Sanu precise route running. You've got a real pleth throa
and I didn't even name the two like primary ones, right,
So like the point being here is that you've got
a lot of things to like in both of them,
but you don't. I don't I don't think that this
is one where I think it's who can establish a

(24:30):
run and play more balance, that's who wins, and improbably
I have the Steelers in a better situation than that
because of those missing pieces on the Falcons defense. Take
the Falcons, do it. And by the way, everybody can talk.
By the way, well, okay, so everybody can talk about
third down. You know, we talked on this pot. We
talked second down, because that's what into here, that's what

(24:53):
leads into your third down. You know who's been really
horrible on second down? I'm gonna go with both of them. Correct,
they're number five worst, number five, number five worse and
number four worse. That's real precise talking right there. Alright,
So fifth worst and fourth worst. There you okay, I'm
taking the Falcons, you're taking the Steers. Let's go to
the Dolphoons, who are being celebrated and we're humiliated national

(25:17):
TV at the hands of Bill Belichick and the Pats
up there at Foxboro once again. Um, but hey, there's
still a three and one team. They're still certainly right
in the mix and still eat the a f C
East for all intents and purposes, and they are at Cincinnata, Cincinnati, Cincinnata,
who day Cincinnata, UM say winner score winner, Bengals score

(25:39):
twenty one. So the biggest reason why who's playing for
the Dolphins this week? Do you know? Because I certainly don't.
Their whole team seems to be on the I R
or banged up, at least banged up. But they're putting
people on I are left and right cutting people. It
seems to be UM. It's hard to know who's going
to be on their fifty three man roster come you

(26:01):
know tomorrow, even um. Yes, Cincinnati, we don't know about
Joe Mixon. He's maybe coming back. We've heard positive things,
could be gioe Bernard. It's okay either way. They do
get Vontes Perfect back, And really for me, there's no
one's going to pressure Andy Dalton. And Andy Dalton has
been great with no pressure. He's been very not great
with pressure, but it just hasn't happened very much, so

(26:22):
we haven't seen it. So I think Andy Dalton this
offense again. By the way, fun fact, Bill Laser used
to work with Ryan Tannehill, so he knows how bad
he is on third down. He can figure it out.
I mean it looks Cincinnati. I think we saw coming
into the season, they made a lot of moves to
try to shore up their offensive line. Um and you
just said it. When Andy has a clean pocket, he's

(26:42):
good and he can deal because he's got great weapons. Now,
unfortunately it was a horrible injury. Uh. And if you
haven't seen it, don't. Um No, Tyler Eiffert and certainly
that was one of his favorite red zone targets. But
he's got a j green. Uh. Tyler Boyd, who has emerged.
I'm still not a huge John Ross guy. I love
the speed in the ability to take it's Tyler boy
But Tyler Boyd's the guy you know Atkins sick to

(27:03):
like there, That's what I mean. Like the interesting thing
about them is like defensively they're not as good as
they should be, right because you do have that rams
like pressure up the middle, which you know Atkins because
Carlos done last there. I mean, William Jackson totally beatable
this year. He's he's been totally beats for the fourth
biggest the fourth most erosion in passer rating allowed season

(27:27):
overseason from last year to this year. So that's that's
been a problem so far. And I do want to
say that I think that. I mean, I did give
the Dolphins some points here twenty one. That's three touchdowns basically,
or you know, some combination thereof Um, I don't think
it's going to be as bad as as last week.
I don't think I think they're going to go back
to gadget plays. I think they're going to go back

(27:47):
to shorter tricks, play small ball, if you will, because
they need to set Ryan Tannehill up because you saw
how hard third down hits him when it's third and
long and he's he's I don't know if it's psychological
or not, but he just doesn't perform on that dept.
But I say points, you know, I think I'll take
the Bengals as well, even though their defense is bad.

(28:07):
I just to me, I look at the Dolphins and
I think about, you know, kind of it just seems
like it's smoking mirrors. You know, it just doesn't I know,
everybody got excited and I kind of poop pooed on it.
Intil like teams boring, there's nothing, there's no cisilic why
they're boring because they only play defense. They only play defense.
They're they're barely they were barely Here's here's what happens
with turnovers. They had all these defensive turnovers and they

(28:29):
were getting a few extra offensive possessions and boom, they
were passing down the field and scoring in a very
few amount of plays. That is not a recipe for
sustained success. You need to establish a run. You need
what people will call eating up the clock. And I
don't think playtime is a really good indicator for you know,
metric for success. I'm all about plays and I'm all
about drives. So you need plays and drives on offense. Otherwise,

(28:52):
if you get behind, you will never come back ever. Yeah,
and they don't have the you know, they don't have
the type of offense I think. I think this kind
of goes into the the conversation that I was having
about the Chiefs and the uh and the Jacks. It's like, hey,
if but I guess it's the opposite if the other
offense goes off, Does do the Dolphins have an offense
to keep up with the Bengals? And I think the

(29:13):
answer is no, you know, whereas with the Jacks, I said, Okay,
let's say the defense locks up the Chiefs, do they
have a defense to slow down the Jacks, and an answers, No,
that's why I take the Jags. So I'm with you.
I think this three and oh start begins to fade quickly. Uh,
lose it Cincinnati, then they got to deal with one
of the best defense is uh probably second best so

(29:34):
far that we've seen this season in the NFL, and
the Bears the week after, and that's when things can
start coming undone. Yeah, we're gonna in one week at
a time, don't pure. I know we'd like to do
a week to Cincinnati once and literally there on to Cincinnati.
All right, let's go. Let's go Giants and Panthers winner
score winner, Panthers score eighteen. Biggest reason why Panthers defense.

(29:55):
I don't know if this this one. You know, I'm
not gonna spend too much time on the Panthers defense,
but I do want say Eli Manning has been pressured
more this season the last season, even with adding Will
Hernandez through the draft and Nate Soldier in free agency.
It's gone up about six percent six point two percent
to twenty eight point three percent. That's crazy. It's been
throwing more short completions. That stuff is not good. For

(30:16):
your man, Odell Beckham. He's getting no deep targets, like
nine percent of his targets is usually something like eighteen.
He's been used in the slot. It hasn't been working.
They're on to him. And by the way, one of
my favorite things ever, which is on the other side
of the ball, if you're picking your fantasy lineup, Um,
I have a I have a big flag and a
lying number here. The Lyne number is Panther's yard before

(30:37):
the run, their number one three yards before the run. Yeah.
You know who's not gonna let that happen, Damon Harrison.
This is not going to be a look Cam Newton,
he's a he's great on his feet. That's not a
true rushing situation. He does have design runs, but it's
a little different when it's Cam running and it's a
quarterback running in general. But I think it's gonna be
the short passages to Christian McCaffrey and the offensive diversity

(30:58):
of the Panthers that wins this one. I mean, I
don't need to expand much on that. I'll just say
Eli Manning is not good. He's just not good. I
mean that that's really it. The guy does not want
to stand in the pocket and throw the ball downfield.
He's just not interested in doing it. The idea that
they fired a head coach, they fired a general manager, uh,
they drafted a running back. They did all of this
for Eli Manning, who's look, he won two super Bowls.

(31:21):
I get it, and you want to celebrate the heck
out of him. And if you look at his career statistics,
there's a lot of big numbers, their completions, yards, touchdowns,
but guess what else There is interceptions and there's a
lot and his career passer rating it's not good. And
I think it's clear that you know, if I don't know,
I get. I guess you win two Super Bowls for

(31:42):
a city like New York and they're gonna defend you
to the death, which is great, and I guess you
should do that, right. You should lay down in traffic
for Eli because he wanted two super bowls as your quarterback.
But the idea that they made all of these changes
in the offseason, drafted a running back as supposedly this
help for Eli. It just wasn't smart because it's just
not that it's not there. It's clear that it's not there.

(32:02):
He is so comfortable. Like you said, just check he
is checked down. Charlie. Man, it's just three yard passes.
There's a whole lot of them. There's no yards per attempt,
there's no pushing the ball downfield. And they're going to
be bad because they got a nasty stretch. We knew
it was a tough start of the season. After Carolina, Philly,
then Atlanta, then Washington, it's gonna get again. I said

(32:22):
the same thing about the Dolphins. I think it gets
ugly for the Giants, and I think you got eighteen
you said, I think that could easily be to six
um with with that Panther's defense with completely you're a blond.
I'm a blonde. O'Dell is a blonde. We don't like
el a. Let's move on. You think I'm a blonde,
I'll take that. I always wanted to be a blond.

(32:43):
I've always thought I've just kind of had that sort
of bond. Whatever. Alright, Cowboys, Texans, what you got score?
I have the Texans coming out on top one. I
like this one because I think the Texans defensive front
plus Watson, who is trending up, is greater than Zeke
plus DeMarcus Lawrence. That's kind of the math for me, right,

(33:04):
the whole it's it's a it's a it's a formula.
It's a formula. But J. J. Watts are individual play
on Clowney, I think I'm following you greater than sign.
I think exactly, amper san ampersand exclamation And that was
the bars with the squiggly in the middle. Okay, I

(33:26):
got exactly. So Zeke's taking his team's offensive touches this season,
that's a lot. Obviously, should probably have sixty two. Do
you know who didn't make tackles last week? I'm gonna
go with the but the Detroit Lions. Lions, Yeah, not good,
not at all good. Um Anyways, So the point is
is they're not converting on third down, they're not working

(33:47):
on second down. They're asking Zeke to do a lot
in zeeks being super efficient, but they can only create
so many different schemes and thirty eight yard runs and
catches for him to trick effectively trick other teams. And
with what and Clowney coming from both sides of this line,
and they're great in the run, and they're obviously great
in the past, but it's really it's gonna come down

(34:07):
to Dak Prescott, who averages only two point three yards
per attempt on under pressure. It's just not enough. That
and Deshaun Watson. You saw it last week. Deshaun Watson
his accuracy improved ten percent in week four versus weeks
one through three. That's ridiculous. That's a huge increase. And
part of it is because DeAndre Hopkins can get exceptional separation.
And the other part of it is Deshaun Watson's figuring

(34:29):
out that the old line is not going to do
anything for him, so he should start using his feet
and create for himself again like he did last season.
They're letting him. They're letting him kind of run around
a little bit more often and create the opportunity he's
looking for as supposed to say, stay in the pocket
and just get you know, pressured and do nothing. Right.
So now he's like, this doesn't happening anymore. We're doing this. Yeah.
I mean, you mentioned the front for the Texans, and

(34:52):
I mean you just look at their yards per carry numbers.
I mean, they're very good against the run, and I
know they're kind of waiting to see them sort of
shake this thing out. Um, because the defense certainly has
not been as stout as the names you know, and
the health of J. J. Watt being back and obviously
Gen Damon Clowne and all that suggests that it should
be um. But at the same time, the one thing
they have done well this season is stopped the run
um and and by the way, it's okay for them

(35:14):
to not be as good on one side, Like, look,
DeMarcus Lawres thinking all that he's a sack leader five
point five sacks number one, and that's great, but you
should know it from the team that you know the
most about. When you have people come from both from
both sides, it's better to have us two guys who
are an eight out of ten or seven out of
ten on coming from multiple sides than it is to
have one guy who's at ten and then nothing else.

(35:35):
You know what I'm saying. I know exactly what you're saying.
I think you've seen it somewhere before. So are you're
taking the Texans I am man, Yeah, I think I
am come from the texanside. Then we can move on now,
just because if they don't have Zeke, what do they have, right,
not a whole lot. Before we move on and get
to uh, get to more contest that maybe you're you're

(35:57):
curious straying a little bit away from consent this. I
want to remind people about g Suite by Google Cloud.
We use it, we're using it right now. And the
wonderful thing about g suite, that suite of cloud based
productivity tools Gmail Docs. Right now, we're on docks and
we have our game theory and money. We're in two
different places right now as we're doing this because we
both kind of had to run around today. But it

(36:18):
gives us an opportunity, much like my freshman in high
school uses the opportunity to remember back in the day
when you would like pass the notes in class, huh,
you know, teacher doesn't want to see it. I wouldn't
roll them into a football. I would make them into
little roses and I would say, hey, there, your hair
sure does smell pretty, and I would pass it over

(36:41):
and exactly, but we can make adjustments as we're talking
in the moment on our Google Docs and it just
makes the show run a heck of a lot more smooth.
They do Gmail obviously docks, as I just mentioned, slide sheets,
drive make real time updates as I just detailed to
the same document. You don't keep track of multiple versions.
And because all the tools are cloud base. Guess what

(37:01):
everybody like we are right now, even Shoppy and Shoppy
our producer. I don't like you snooping on the fancy notes.
I'm trying to pass to Cynthia right now. I think
he's sitting here, but Shoppy's left because he's just in
the Google Docs somewhere else. He went home, exactly right. See,
he went home to Your whole team can access the
same document, work on the same page at the same time.
Make it with g suite by Google Cloud. To find

(37:22):
out more, visit g suite dot com. All right, you
stray a little little bit from consensus here. We start
with the packers and lions. I have no idea why
this is not a normal thought for people. I can't
imagine a different way packers. The biggest reason the packers
can run or pass on every down don't like to

(37:44):
get off the field. Yeah, it's been bad, and we
thought they figured something out, right, we thought Matt Patrician
his fancy pencil in his ear, figured something out against
the Pats, and they just could not carry it over.
And that was a might have been the most disappointing
loss of the week, after a huge tell me about
against the Patriots to go and just just drop that
one against the Cowboys, who offensively had nothing going this

(38:05):
entire season until they saw the Lions come to town. Yeah, so,
you know what's an interesting number? The Rogers is good?
That's Aaron Rodgers. Wait, this is one to tell your
friends over dinner, dinner, drinks, you know either way. Yeah, So,
of the sixteen times that Rogers has faced the Lions,
guess how many times he's won? All right, I mean, look,

(38:28):
you ask me, I'll give you know what I'm gonna say, right,
Aaron Rodgers and they're the Lions. One is arguably the
greatest quarterback ever. The other is arguably the most hapless
team in the division since they booted the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
I mean, I know this all. I'm very aware. Um,
but I do think that it's not called the chords, Cynthia.
Come on, you've been in California long enough. I might better,

(38:50):
much better. I'm very I'm always cold and I don't
like being cold, So Michigan is probably not the place
for me. You don't know what do you owe the Lions.
What have they ever done for you? Nothing? They're not
This whole team is not given to gonna have a
ton of points. And it's not even that fun to watch.
I'll see. That's disappointing because I obviously Aaron Rodgers was
not the same against the Bills. But I just think

(39:10):
it's gonna be I think it's going to be a
more tempered game. It's not gonna be a blow the
lid off the top game. So anyways, so let's move on.
Let think Detroit. So where's the game at games in Detroit?
It's at Ford Field in Detroit, indoor. It's good Euros there,
you know. Yeah, attempted to take the Lions go for
so lion. It's so Lion of that. Yeah, but I won't.

(39:33):
I'll take I'll take care right there. All right, let's
go Titans Bills, Titans three Bills seventeen. You heard me,
Titans twenty three. Good Titans, man, sneaky good? Yeah that
you know what. The Titans defense and their defensive front
is good. This is what they did. Dean Peace, my man,
it's I know everyone likes gets a lot of run
on the pot here. Yes, he absolutely does I love

(39:55):
Dean Peace. I've watched every snap that was at Michigan State. Like, so,
long story short, their defense, but that's just me. I mean,
so Darrell Casey in the center is really holding it down.
That's a huge difference creating this defense from the middle out.
It's kind of like um in Silicon Valley, you know,
like middle out anyways, um, so, what what they do

(40:18):
is they create stability and then they have all these
exotic fronts. And you even saw like unblocked Harrold Landry
just whatever you saw, Malcolm Butler whatever, everybody. Yes, how
that guy slipped in the draft is crazy anyway, story
for Boston College kid keeping it real. So it's alright.

(40:40):
So yeah, so long story short, their defense is good.
Markus Marito appears to be more healthy, at least improving health.
I'm going to keep watching keep an eye on this health.
But I think this is a game where you see,
I like a nice, steady offense. This is where, like
the Tennessee Titans, fans get mad at me for picking
against them every other time. And it's not even me
picking against them, but whatever, it's math. And by the way,

(41:04):
Josh Allen Lowest percentage of wide open throws. Nobody gets
open for him. Who's he? Who's he playing with? Yeah? Well,
and now the Calvin Benjamin's down up that he was
that good anyway. I mean, look, you remember the uh
it was either on Sesame Street or Electric Company, the
old sketch. One of these guys, he's doing his own thing.
One of these guys just dudes in the same Look
at their schedule. Right to three, they lose, thirty one

(41:27):
to twenty, they lose, and that could have been thirty eight, uh,
twenty two to nothing. They lose, or they beat the
Vikings six. What stands out right, it was just a
weird ram. Welcome to the NFL. Welcome to the NFL.
When you kind of play it all out and no
one's gonna let you sneak up on him anymore. I
think you said it all That defense is darn good
and Marcus Mariota looks like he's getting more healthy. Um,

(41:48):
he's got compliment you know, complimentary weapons, arguably the best
book ND tackles on his offensive line in the league.
So yeah, that's with what the Bills are putting up
against him on defense that this to me looks I
mean look, you are being nice by saying it was
a six point victory. I'm gonna I'm gonna say it's
double that. This is gonna look a lot more like
the other three losses the Bills have already. Listen, other
people don't think it's going to be that big of

(42:08):
a win. So you and I are both on the
side of big win Titans new and I'll sale, I
thought that was gonna rhyme, but it didn't. So that
big Titan win Island. All right, Raiders at Chargers, what
do you got? I got the Charges twenty nine, the
Raiders twenty six, A lot of points. You got? You
got a lot of points. And I can't disagree with you.
Who doesn't like a lot of points. This could be

(42:29):
a messy game, This could be a message you are
the Chargers the most unlucky team in the NFL, Like
just random stuff that doesn't happen to kind of been
the case at least people point out. I mean, you
know what, last year was historically bad season for kickers.
I think sixty seven percent of their field goals converted
like the low and twenty years And look, that's not

(42:50):
bad luck. But you know this year poised to kind
of with a sweet schedule. Make a run and you lose.
Arguably the best, at least in the conversation, is the
best of fensive player in the league before the season starts.
So yeah, a little snake bitch tackle back didn't lead it.
Back is big just because he's an upfield um. He's
an upfield tackle, so he can create pressure from the

(43:13):
tackle position, and they desperately need that. I mean, that's
really why this defense has been so bad is that
they missed that ability to win a one on one.
Melvin Ingram is getting doubled, he's getting tight end shade
and help, He's getting shipped by backs and the other
guy on the other side, either Isaac Rochelle or Chris
Landrum or Chenna Nwos suit there on one on ones

(43:34):
and it can't win. I want to be good so
I can say his name more often. Yeah, I mean,
and he he had a great start, had that sack
in his first snap against the Bills, but since then,
he's just you gotta win one on ones, man, because
they're gonna double one. He is and whicheveryone they don't.
You gotta win, and they haven't been able to do that.
But we'll see if Legit, who can pressure from that
inside tackle position, can help out with that. You know,
their best pass rusher has been all season, Derwin James. Yeah,

(43:59):
Derwin James. Yeah. He has been unbelievable when they play
him in the box. I mean the he's been the best.
He's not just the best rookie, he's the best box
safety in the NFL through four weeks. He's been that good. Yeah. Yeah, anyway, sorry, jump, Look,
the only thing I got, the only other thing I
got here is that Oakland Mohurst did come up. I'm
looking trying to find something good about their you know,

(44:21):
their pass rush here because everyone hates on it. Mohurst
did look good in the interior of there. Uh defense,
a great player. I'm pulling for the guy, clearly. It's uh,
you know, it was a hard issue. He was on
a lot of people's you know, at the number one
interior tackle in the draft. Um, he had got flagged
for a heart and he basically it does stink, but

(44:44):
basically he can play. He's got this level that he's
got to stay under. And if he can stay under that,
he can keep playing. And you know, God bless him.
I hope he can for his entire career. He's that good.
And man did he make a big difference in that
game last week against the Rams. I mean, I guess Browns. Anyways,
we can move on. Anyways, we can move on. I
think that's right. I'd say a lot of points and

(45:06):
I would assume tight because that's what the Chargers have
been in with the exception of that, and you can
see you could see multiple turnover z and both sides. Yeah,
it could be one of the mess I mean, the
one thing Philip I thought that was uncharacteristic last week.
Um the interception he through, he got hit when he
threw it the ball sale that was a pick six
to start the game. Uh. He's really been very Uh
he's been very efficient and willing to take what the

(45:29):
defense gives him. He has not forced things like he
did two years ago, three years ago when he was
really pushing the ball downfield thrown a lot of picks.
That was not the case last year. That's not the
case this year. Um. So I think as long as
they see something weird can happen, like like a fumble
or like I'm not even necessarily saying picks. I'm saying
something weird. So yeah, turnovers, I got you all right,
Ram Seahawks, Okay, Ram twenty Seahawks nineteen. I don't think

(45:51):
we need to spend a ton of time here, primarily
because the Seahawks defense is so good. Earl Thomas is gone,
Michael Kendricks, is no line running backs playing. You know again,
for me and this one, it's not a ton of
points and a lot two touchdowns, touchdowns at nine points,

(46:14):
at least touchdowns. Redskins Saints, this one. We need to
get into this one. I love Saints thirty, Redskins twenty two.
I know everyone when I say twenty two or twenty five,
I hope I get more of those. Um, here's here's
here's two things to look for. One, let's start with
the defense, the defensive side of the ball here with Washington,

(46:35):
because being able to run on Washington shouldn't be easy.
Because if you look at Jonathan Allen and Ron Payne,
they both in week Okay, so they've only played three games,
so I can only have three games of sample. Yeah,
so in the third game, both of them went up
to like a huge like almost all the defensive snaps
after not really playing as many in weeks one and two,
and that made a big difference in terms of the run.

(46:56):
The problem is that means Drew Brees is gonna break
that record, and then some and then some because's gonna
be Alvin Kamara, it's going to be Michael Thomas. And
there's just too many different options here. So I'm just
saying for your fantasy purposes, I like Melvin Ingram this week,
but I like people who catch passes more because I
think that the defensive line. Yeah, did I say Melvin Ingram?

(47:19):
It was back to back. You know, you know, I'm
just a moron. We're good. That's so. Yeah, So look
and and the other side of this, I think Alex
Smith in this offense, I think if they're going to
start to show some if they are able to throw
it deep, it's going to be this game. So if
you're gonna take a chance on a redskin receiver, it's
this week. It's it. Paul Richardson. I don't know, is

(47:41):
it Josh Jackson? I'm not sure, but I do know
that the States defense. The States defense, Yeah, it's allowing
thirty point three points per game. And you know what,
if you look at their defensive backs numbers one, two,
and three their corners for who's had the biggest bad
way different of who used to be a dirt ball
perhaps and not allow any passes in their coverage and

(48:03):
then this year like a plus a three, plus eighty difference. Yeah,
it's gonna be their top three guys. So that'd be
Marshall and Latimore, P J. Williamson, Ken Crawley all up
at least seventies seven point six pass or rating points allowed.
So if they're if Alex Smith is gonna pass eap,
you know it's going to be this week or Monday
or whatever. I thought you were asking me for specific
I was like, I guess I'll go Richardson or I

(48:24):
don't know what could be any of those guys. I
like Richardson if you need a sleep, that's the favorite
based on where even though I feel like, even though
I went through that whole stupid rant about Eli Manning
and how bad the Giants are, and um, I think
there is something to kind of the old Hey, if
you're if you're, if your shots off and you're a score,

(48:46):
just gonna lay up, get a file, get to that
free throw line, just see the ball go through the net.
I feel like that's the case with the Saints. You know, hey,
you're one of the best defenses. Last year, you added
Marcus Davenport. Your team is still pretty much intact. Just
see it. Let's see some turnovers. Let's see the eighteen points.
First half, they allowed a touchdown, and then they did

(49:07):
and then they held their down. They figured it out.
They started. Their signs are pointing up. While the offense,
I'm not gonna say the word struggled, but they kicked
four field goals in the first half and that was it.
They had red zone issues in the first half. The
defense is like, yo, we got this. We're good. You know,
we're we're gonna hold our up our end of the
bargain on So I'm thinking maybe maybe that happened, you know,

(49:28):
maybe that was the game last week. And and they're
gonna make me right because they're my Super World pick.
That's right. I think I picked them as well. Remember right,
you know what, Listen on that one. I mocked you
for your Chiefs pick, and I'm hoping that comes to
frust because boy, I'm not gonna look stupid, but you'll
look great and that's more important anyway. Um, I'm gonna
take the Saints as well. I don't know if it's

(49:48):
as lopsided as you think, though. I like that team.
I like Red sinc Too, but I think I think, look,
eight points, that's what I got. Eight point different. Boy,
I'm gonna go. I'm gonna go less. I'm gonna go
more like a five point game. I'm gonna go Saints
by five. Yeah. I think that Redskins team is a
lot better than people are given it credit for. Alright,
let's know you're not. No, you're not. You're saying their garbage.

(50:12):
The Sims, they went straight up. These are games that
you stray from consensus. I'm a crazy person on this,
Yes you are, and this is all you. You can't
blame the math. This is all the math. Let's start
Broncos the Jets. What do you have the maths says
Broncos Jets nineteen. Does that even seem crazy because I

(50:34):
don't think so? Okay, people, I think you have the people. Yeah,
the people think that the Jets are gonna win at home,
you know, and look in they're not watching the Jets.
If that's what they think, I'm telling that's what they think.
They're not watching them. I'm telling you fifty nine percent
of the sims, the the Broncos are outright winners, just

(50:54):
so you know. And the biggest reason here you just
named it Denver's defense greater than greater than greater than
Jets fence. Okay, do we even need to go there? No?
I think I think, uh, Baldy did a Baldi did
a great breakdown our friend, Brian Baldi. Was he which
direction was he pointing? Because I can never tell with
his hand? How dare you man who sacrificed his pinky

(51:18):
for the cause, And you're going to mock him on this?
I love I love Baldi and Baldy. It was it.
It encapsulated the Jets perfectly in a minute thirty of
him breaking down one play. Um, oh you know what?
And now that I'm thinking of it, yeah it was Baldi. Yeah,
in one play? Um, what what are you looking for

(51:41):
from Sam Donald? When he's got a third and one
third and one to convert and he's got Robbie freaking
Anderson running nine yards down field, running a freaking go
route and underneath him, I think he had curse who
instead of doing a quick hitch within a Fender plane
off of him, runs five yards down the field, and

(52:04):
he's got an old line that's not protecting him, so
by the time he can let go with the ball,
he's got defenders in his face. It's freaking Jacksonville. It's
Yanni Conga Kwai, it's Calais Campbell, it's Malik Jackson and
you dummies, And it could be the O C that
called these routes. I don't know, but how do you
when you have a wide open middle of the field.
Just please go seek out that video and watch it
before we start piling Sam Donald's terrible. You're he's garbage. No,

(52:29):
I'm not saying. I'm saying all these people that are
piling on Sam Donald after he had a great opening
to the season and everybody has great potential, I don't
know what he is because nobody's ever open behind the
line of scrimmage. I don't know if if you saw
what happened against Jacksonville with that D line exactly behind
the line of scrimmage for negetive three yards yak six

(52:49):
yards um. I mean, like that guy's a great number
three receiver somewhere, not a number one that gets targeted
fifteen times a game. So yeah, whatever, Broncos, I'm with
you by at least five unless case Keenum continues to
forget how to complete pass this. I don't care about
the short week for Denver, not one bit. Cards at
cards forty niners. Okay, so it's not super certain fifty

(53:15):
one or fifty nine percent of the simulations. But my model, listen,
I'm gonna stick up from my model here, my model
Arizona last week, and do you know how close we
were to Arizona actually being the winner last week? Like
some missed field goals. I'm not bitter, I'm not better,
but Josh Rosen ignited this offense. You saw Lara Fitz
being the main target. You saw David Johnson start to

(53:37):
get going. You saw that there's a lot of positive
things here, and ultimately Arizona's defense does enough to get
their newly potent offense going. That's what we had it.
At the start of the season. I mentioned how much
I like this team. I thought they look good defensively.
They got a pass rusher, they got solid linebackers, and

(53:58):
they missed some tackles corners that back exactly they did,
and I like the offensive line. It's been bad. Um
but on paper, I thought it looked pretty darn good.
They have David Johnson. Last week was the first week
they used David Johnson. Yes, I mean it's it's like, hey,
I don't remember what he was able to do two
years ago before I remember that. How about how about
just doing more of that Mike McCoy um. But yeah,
I thought Josh Loake great. I thought he looked really good,

(54:19):
um in his first start. Still, you know, if the
pocket breaks down a little bit, a little tougher for
him to navigate than some of the other quarterbacks like
Baker and Sam, we can get out and move a
little bit more. But you know what passes were on time,
Passes are accurate. That's the most secondary San Francisco secondary
secondary though what secondary exactly. So as long as you

(54:40):
get past Reuben Fosters, look Armstead pressure. They have a
lot of good pressure guys upfront, their solid but in
the on the back end, like you, you can figure
that out a little bit, or you just give it
to Larry Fitzgerald. Here, Larry run the slod which go
for yards. Weird drops last week too, he had a
lot of drops. It's gonna chemistry will come the chemistry
will come. I think this is the week that I
have and I don't care what anyone says. I'm with

(55:01):
my model. Yeah, I made my model. It's my baby.
We got it's good. Go with my baby real quick.
I'll just add if you look at last week's game
against the Charge, it was a weird game. Um, I
thought C. J. Bethard looked good, but the Chargers, the
Chargers look bad. Um that's that's uh, that's kind of more.
For whatever reason, the offense was just a tick off. Um. Yeah,

(55:25):
it was not pressuring, so I think you know, look,
their old line was down, they lost you know, Western
rich Bird. For part of that game, Joe Staley has
banged up Mark He's Goodwin. Look he's a Ferrari, he's
a track guy. He's not a hundred percent. It's not
going to work for him. And that was the case
in that game. Matt Breed has banged up El Morris
is bank. You see what I'm saying. Like, and then
you go to their defense, Solomon Thomas is hurt. Uh

(55:46):
you have half of their secondary Richard Sherman, Jakwaski Tart
both hurt. So it's just it's a mash unit um
and even though it's at the forty niners and Josh
Rosen's a young quarterback, he didn't care that affect him.
I'm with you, I'll take the I'll say it's a
lot of hot air for me just to sail cards.
I love it all right, let's go Thursday night football.
This is not a wonderfully interesting game. I have the

(56:10):
Patriot thirty, the Colds twenty one. Seventy six point six
percent of the sims have the Patriots. Reason why why,
you may ask, because there's too many options for Brady
and not enough time for Luck to create anything. Because
the supporting cast has been lett him down. And by
the way, who's even playing? Who is playing? I don't

(56:30):
not t Y, not Doyle, not back right, So it's
gonna be some guys you don't know, but they're gonna
have to keep you know who is playing. You know
who has been good for Indianapolis. Darius Leonard circle number
number three exactly, so you know what, I'm going to
give some shine. And Margus Hunt he's been playing well too,

(56:51):
So I'm not that I was going to resurrect his career.
But who do you but But I'm I'm trying to
give some shine here and listen Frank Race. Yeah, Frank Reich.
He had to call six the different drop at the
last game, which is crazy. It was a weird game.
He had some weird There were some weird calls, for sure,
So I would imagine probably a more stable call play
call at this time. But also on the other side

(57:13):
of the ball. You know, you get Edelman back. I
say it like, it's no big deal. You get out
the back, you know, just the guy who's been gotten
the second most or third most separation out of the
slot in anyone in the past three years. No big deal.
Just him obviously didn't play, you know what I mean,
Because I'm old. I like your Janus, Like, for sure,
it's a good one. That's there. I'm going Patriots by
two touchdowns. You know it's October, right, Oh wait, there's

(57:36):
that narrative, can we You know the best part about October.
We don't have to hear about the Patriots are going
to be better in October. We can just see Patriots
better in October. I'll go to touchdowns two touchdowns, all right,
let's go. Let's review confidence picks. We need three one one.
I think Pittsburgh twenty Atlanta six is not as many

(57:56):
points as many may think. That's one we're scoring for
two teams that have been defensively challenged. Is number one? Okay?
I think too, Denver, the Broncos, the Ponies beat the Jets.
Is that an airplane? The Ponies beat the airplane. I
don't know what else it would be in New York?
Got it? Okay? Okay? Three and three points points points

(58:18):
points points in Jacksonville, in Kansas City, Arrowhead lots of points.
Steel City not a lot of points. It seems crazy. Denver,
on a short week, goes to New York and Todd
Bowles is on the hot seat again after a big
week one in Arizona, they win. You want to add

(58:39):
a fourth? We only do three. We're generous. It's October.
Not only did the Patriots get better than October, so
does Cynthia Number four. Poor Kyle Shanahan, man, it's all
going so well. Uh there It is a week five
production of Game Theory and Money. A big thank you
to Sean Shoppie, our producer, and all of you out

(59:00):
there who share and spread the news of this podcast
through social media, who subscribe, who download, uh Cynthia's great work,
of course, the mathematician that she is, and we will
be back again next week to either castigate her for
poor production or celebrate her for her brilliance. I would

(59:20):
say it's probably the latter. Uh. Thank you for listening, downloading, streaming,
all those things will hopefully have you hear from us
again next week