Game Theory and Money Week 6 Predictions

Cynthia Frelund had a double digit win total in week 5 when it came to giving you the correct winners, and she's primed to do even better in week 6 on the back of a number of picks that will surprise you! She runs 10 thousand simulations on every game. So who comes out on top between the Patriots and Chiefs? Does Cleveland pick up another win? It's the Game Theory and Money podcast, analytics at its finest!

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
Welcome to Game Theory and Money are Week six podcasts.
Thanks so much to those of you who have been
with us all season long, and and especially big huzzah
to those that have shared our message on social media.
Uh you give us reviews on iTunes? That helps us
a lot as well. Even if you just download the
podcast and listen, guess what we like you. We like
you a lot. But again, if you don't uh, if

(00:23):
you don't mind, if you could be compelled to share
the podcast with your friends, if you enjoy what we're
doing here, it helps us a lot. Because we're new.
This is just our second season, and a big thank
you to all the folks here at NFL dot Com
and NFL Network for bringing us back for a second year.
We're young, we're growing, but it's going in the right direction.
So thanks again. Downloading, listening, streaming, sharing on social media,

(00:44):
and especially if you're willing to give us a review,
that does help us become more visible. Why are we
here not because of me? Because of the other part
of Game Theory and Money. The game theory part the
bright math mind of Cynthia Freeland. As she is going
to guide you through her ten simulations. She's got her
own model. It's called a Monte Carlo. I don't get it.

(01:06):
You don't get it, but we're here because she does.
And she can share with you and make you smart
when it comes to figuring out who's gonna win games
and by how much? How little? Is it tight? Is
it not? You're gonna sound smart with your friends. You
don't want that damp Atlanta game might look like it's
gonna be a blow up, But let me tell you something.
And all you're doing is regurgitating and plagiarizing her. It's
what I do and that's why I'm more popular than

(01:28):
I should be. So, Cynthia, did I leave anything out?
Are we ready? I can't talk already? Well, here we go.
You're now on the spot because quick recap. You want
to sing your own praises? You want me to do it? Um?
I mean, look, I'm gonna give you a big lock
of the week and then just to start because we
were so happy and so grateful for our listeners, and
then you can do the recap. How about that? Okay? Okay,

(01:50):
So the Jags offense averaging twenty four points per game,
Cowboys sixteen point six, and this week, despite both of
them having a better defense than offense. Guess what I have.
I have then both exceeding their season totals. But I'm
not gonna tell you who wins yet. Okay, so instead
of thirty six or thirty seven points, you got forty

(02:10):
four points total. You got it? How about that? That's
a lot of extra offense in that contest. It really
is your lock, the defense minded Jags and the offense.
I think we would describe them as defense minded Jags
offensively challenged Cowboys score some points in that I put it,
I said a little nicer. I said that both of
them have better defenses than offenses. There you go in

(02:33):
it all right, Cynthia, you were ten and five last week,
you're fifty and twenty eight on the year, you're ten
in sixteen on your confidence picks. Will give you three
three confidence picks at the end of this whole pod
that Cynthia feels better about than any others. And remember,
unfortunately from me, Cynthia's picked for the Super Bowl because

(02:53):
I mocked her roundly for her a f C selection,
and I still feel like it might come around for me.
I do that defense still, I believe causes me great.
See this week. Huh, yeah, exactly, Chiefs unbeaten, but they
take on the Paths. We'll get to that pick in
a minute. And the Saints are now for and one
and the one being just a crazy opener against the

(03:13):
Tampa Bay Bucks that you know, season openers getting nutty.
So there we go, get your loss out of the
way so you don't have to worry about that unbeaten season,
you know, exactly right? And what is a crazy NFC
South with the uh with the Panthers and the Falcons. Anyway,
let's get to what we call freelance favorites. Uh. These
are some of your favorite picks of the week based

(03:34):
on what your model spit out and everyone else not.
I just have the good alliteration here. There you go,
freeland favorites. And we start in the aforementioned NFC South
Tampa Bay Atlanta. What do we got? I have the
Falcons coming out on top thirty twenty four and Atlanta
wins in sixty nine point nine percent of the simulations
in this one. And the main reason here is is offense.

(03:56):
It's just so much diversity in the offense. Even though
we did see Devonte Freeman back on the injury, port
for something new. I think it's a contusion. I still
have Matt Ryan in that league's second best third down
offense if you're keeping track at home, outpacing Tampa Bay.
Even though Jamis Winston could be a good fantasy pick.
But apart from that, I'm sticking with Atlanta and this
one Atlanta big six point. Yeah, that's uh. It's a

(04:19):
tough one because Jamis looked good at the end of
last year, he looked good in the preseason, and we
kind of I think I feel like we all knew
that Ryan Fitzpatrick was going to hit that wall that
there's just too large to know that this can't continue. Um,
and I don't need to do this. Stupid fits magic
versus fits tragic crowd. But we don't know what Jamis
is yet. I mean, he was a number one pick

(04:39):
for a reason. He is a supremely talented quarterback that's
kind of a knucklehead and that's sort of what's dogged
him early in his career. But if he's what a
lot of people think he can be, it's kind of
hard to figure out what's gonna happen because Atlanta's defense
has been terrible. Although I will say in this one, Jamis,
Here's the thing about Jameis Winston. He has like intermittent
excellence and intermittent kind of bone head play, just like

(05:00):
you said. So even though Atlanta's secondary is banged up
and they're playing a lot of different configurations, this is
a game where Jamis Winson does flag for an interception
because of his style play, not necessarily because Atlanta's defense
is so strong, but because of the way he plays
the game, in the decidient he makes, and the fact
that he doesn't have that rhythm down with the team yet, right,
And I just I think here me one of the

(05:21):
reasons why I'm trying to figure it out is, you know,
this is a team that's given up i think the
second most passing touchdowns in the Atlantic defense and and
they've only i think they're towards the bottom in terms
of picks or maybe midpack and picks. So that's what
it's just it's hard to figure out because we don't
know what Jamis is James gonna make those dumb plays
are not anyway answers both He's gonna do that. He's
gonna score Mike Evans and Camberate and probably DeShawn Jackson

(05:44):
see the end zone and then othern that's gonna be
like wait, what was that interception about? Right, that's what's
gonna I'm with you. I think the Falcons win uh handily.
All right, Chicago at Miami. I'll remember when everybody was
celebrating the Dolphoons and now we're like, whatever, Dolphoons. You're
back to being the Dolphoons again, right you are in
this one. I have the Bears coming on on top.

(06:06):
Team Chica wins in seventy one point four for some
of the simulations, And honestly, the main reason why is
this is really not the game for Miami to be
so terrible on third down. They ranked number twenty nine.
They're only converting thirty point nine. That's not even a
third of their third downs. And by the way, they're

(06:27):
not good on second down, and they're becoming bad on
first down to which is where they were excelling when
they were doing the r p O s and those
short passing games like trick plays, gadget things to jakeem Grant,
all that stuff seemed to have gone by the wayside
now and they're trying to throw it deep. I'm not
sure why they're getting a little bit of help in
their run game. They did jump up early against Cincinnati
because you saw some of that stuff. You saw jacheme
grant speed, especially on special teams, but those were pretty

(06:49):
much caused by turnovers. So I'm a little nervous in
this one. All the Mitchell true Bisky could throw a
turn throw a turnover. He's still a young, developing quarterback.
But I just don't think that this is going to
be the kind of game that favors Miami with all
the defensive pressures and the fact that their old line
is beyond backed up backed up. So what you're telling
me is the team that's the fourth worst at converting

(07:11):
first downs on third down is not particularly matching up
well with a team that's third best at preventing teams
from converting a third down into a first down and
has perhaps the most fearsome pass rush in all the land. Yep,
I think that's how it becomes a Freeland favorite. I'm
with you. I'll take the Bears as well, although I
am not sold on Mitchell Drabinsky after his wax. I

(07:31):
didn't say it was sold, but that's how I think that.
That's how I think that that Miami does score eighteen
points right those turnovers, they're in fact a really unfavorable situations,
and their special team play has been great. I liked
Kim Grants speak can only run so many wheel routes
before the film is out, and teams are like, you
know what we gotta do. Let's defend the wheel. Let's
let's keep an eye on that this time. Okay, alright, Seattle,

(07:53):
let's go to uh London Town to the first of
our international series contest Seattle and Oakland. I do want
to point out before you it into the nuts and bolts,
nuts and bolts, we got screwed um of this. I
find it interesting that with his team at one and four,
Wacky John Gruden asked about what do we need to fix?
What's going on with my team? His response, I'm just

(08:15):
worried about that flight to London. You know, last time
I was on an airplane that long, I'm kind of claustrophobic.
I got vertigo and I had vertigo for a month.
Saw him kind of more focused on how about not that?
How about not that? Answer coach? Any right? How about
I am sensitive and I am sympathetic to your condition

(08:36):
and I hope it doesn't happen. But with your team
one and four, with the offense a disaster at this point, Yeah,
they're piling up yards, but they're not scoring points. With
your quarterback turning the ball over on a first and
goal from the one to a linebacker that was right
in front of him that he said, oh yeah, he
just popped up. No, he didn't pop up. He was
standing there the whole time, and you had your eyes
locked on carrier running the back of the end. Anyway,

(08:57):
how about not talking about your vertigo. I'm sorry, No,
here's if anything I wanted to ask you about this. Actually,
So I saw this when I was looking at watching
the game, and I was looking kind of like when
you could hear Philip Rivers speaking, did you hear when
he and he goes, so we're going with bass defense. Huh,
you're gonna run the scene? He is, and and you know,

(09:22):
and that's kind of what the word I mean. Look,
everybody's kind of got their thing right, and and Philip's
thing is he is probably since Peyton Manny retired, the
best quarterback at diagnosing defense and playing that cat and
mouse game with the defensive coordinator on mic linebacker and
he loves I mean, if you listen to Philip Mike Up,
if you listen to the Row, if you were able
to listen to the Raw, you gotta go find that

(09:43):
on Twitter. If you're listening to this, do yourself a favor.
Go like, go on Twitter, go on Google, figure it out.
You can find it. It's so funny. So we're going
with bass defense. Okay, run the seament. It's great, Virgil,
you're running the scene. And he threw at the keen
and on and out on that play actually, but yeah,
it's great. The Phillips Raw audio fantastic. Basically, I'm mocking
the mic back or the entire time in saying I

(10:04):
know what you're doing. Guess what I know what you're doing,
and here's what I'm gonna do, and live in your
head anything anyway. All right, So here we go Seattle
and Local at Oakland. It's aid a Raider home game,
but it's happening out there at Wembley, right, So Seattle
comes out on top twenty two. Seattle wins in seventy
point seven percent of the simulations. Yeah, that's very overwhelming.

(10:25):
It's just you know, look the two things here that
kind of do. It's some parallel here. It's a battle
of really unfavorable old lines. Yes, impacts the quarterbacks. Both
have played kind of down to the expect from expectations
we had from them from the beginning of season. Yes,
Russell Wilson so the one of the best quarterbacks in
the league. I'm not saying he's not, but from the
expectations we had from him in terms of passing or
fantasy or kind of how you think of him, it

(10:47):
hasn't been his season. It's been very, very difficult. Oakland's
defense is the much bigger mess. Why is Garyan Connelly
e bench? We can talk about that later, um, But ultimately,
for me, even without kJ Wright and even the fact
that marsh On Lynch has been top five and broken
tackles in first downs in terms of percentage of place
he's he's been on the field, I still have Seattle

(11:08):
all day. London's new favorite. Now, there's never gonna They're
never like anyone better than the Jags. But you know
what I'm saying, Uh, you're right. They have the two
rookie tackles Brandon Parker Coulton Miller. Coulton Miller got destroyed
I mean absolutely destroyed by Melbourne and Grimmin. Look that's fine,
he's young. You know what's gonna take a couple of years.
He has the traits, he's got good athleticism, he's absolutely huge,

(11:30):
and one of the best pass rushers in the game
is gonna take advantage of him. It's just the way
it's gonna be. But it's the opposite side of the ball.
And you said it. P J. Halls looked okay, But
the rest of that defensive line, Art and Key is
just he's too aggressive and you can just shove them
up field and end that pass rush. Bruce Servant, he's
a one trick pony speed rush. If you get your

(11:50):
hands on him, that's over. And Hankins and and Fidal
Brown whatever, I mean, they just they got nothing. And
if they couldn't look if they couldn't pressure Rivers, and
he was barely pressured. The Chargers had two backup tackles
in Russell o'coon was out. Sam Tavy was playing left tackle.
Undrafted free agent out of Grambling State Trent Scott. No

(12:11):
offense to Trent and his alma mater, but you know
the guy that was on a practice squad that was
elevated with these injuries. They barely touched Philip so that's
when and now you've got someone that can run around
and pirouet in extent place like Russell Wilson. Exactly. It's just, man,
it's a it's a mess in Oakland. I think everybody
was kind of lulled into thinking that, oh, these games

(12:32):
were tight and it's just unfortunate turnovers late. And I
think this Chargers, the way they blew them out, if
it happens again with a Seattle team that's got a
lot of a lot of warts, I think it's time
to really start worrying about what's going to happen in Oakland.
I also think one last thing that I learned this
week or kind of something that I learned, so we
were really lucky. We had a really great pass rusher.

(12:53):
Dwight Freeney was on Heavenday morning this weekend, so I
was talking to him. I was like, hey, like, you know,
what's what's one of the ways if you're what's one
way to to stop perimeter pressure? Like, what's the thing
you do? He's like, well, Russell to be Russell Wilson
basically let the pressure come. See it, have a good
visual of it, and then run away from it. And
then so I'm starting to track kind of who's the
best at doing that in terms of style of play,

(13:15):
Like some quarterbacks don't have that style, but you know,
that's what you see with Russell Wilson, and if they
are able to pressure, it's not gonna really bother him
because it's not that kind of elite pressure that's so fast.
He's not He's nowhere to go. This is like, Okay,
I'm russells You're there, You're there. Okay, I'm gonna go
over here. Like it's it's going to be the same
thing like you saw. It's just interesting. Again we are
sympathiko And now these are still part of freelance favorites,
but I'd like to play the part of Everett. You

(13:37):
play the part of Pete hog Wallop and I say, Pete,
me weren't to spot what's that Everett? And I say work. Um, So,
still freeland favorites, but these are games that are awfully
tight and you're not quite as comfortable projecting. So let's
start with where I'm headed on Friday. So Chargers and

(14:01):
roll Man Cleveland, Cleveland still be in Cleveland. What's your
favorite Huey Lewis in the news song Cynthia Um, okay,
assist please, I'm good one. I'm sure if he's saying that,
I could figure it out. I know that song, but

(14:22):
I don't know any other ones, so like, I guess
it could be like, Okay, I know all those. I
do all I do know all those. I used to
listen to him with my mom, like driving to school
when I was in elementary school. Something like that's depressing. Okay,
have the Charges coming out on top. The Chargers win
in fifty six point nine percent of the simulations. And

(14:44):
the thing I want to point out here because look,
nobody knows the Chargers better than you. So I'm gonna
go on the other side of the ball, and I'm
gonna say that part of the reason Keep Cleveland keeps
it so close is how much improvement Baker's been doing
in terms of earning first downs. Yes, he had an
early pick last week against the Ravens, but without both ah,
you're not going to have the type of crazy both

(15:04):
side pressure that's gonna make him make the game went
too fast. I don't like that term. I don't know
what that means, but it's not going to make it.
So there's so much pressure in his face which he
is gonna be able to make his reads and his
decisions more easily. So for me, I think Baker's improvement
and continue to improvement is the reason why this game
stays so close. Yeah, it's it. It looks on paper
like it's going to be close. It's a really good defense,

(15:25):
and they're good at taking the ball away. To me,
if the Chargers win this game, they're gonna have to
do what they did against the Raiders and let's create turnovers.
Um and look, but Baker's given the ball away, so um,
I don't think you know, Philip's not giving the ball away.
Through that weird pick six against San Francisco, it was
just an odd play. Um. Outside of that, that that
interception had against Kansas City was legiti through it in
the triple coverage. It was a bad throw, uh and

(15:46):
it was picked off. But to me, it's it's can
and look, Philip will get rid of the ball quick
if Myles Garrett's barren down on him. He's so good
at that. It's just recognizing pressure and not taking a
ton of sacks. I think they he took a few
of sacks last year. He's on pace too, in the
top five and taking the few of sacks again this year.
So to me, it's, hey, you're kicking games still a
little shaky, and you're gonna probably have to create turnovers

(16:09):
against a really good defense. Denzel awards legit as a quarter.
But you know what, I'm get a lot of mapping
for Keenan Allen because I feel like nationally we don't
talk enough about Keenan Allen and his ability to earn
first downs. So I'm trying to quantify how wide receivers
on and off the ball help their team earn first downs.
And it's kind of funny because Keenan Allen keeps popping
up in these situations where he shouldn't perform well, but

(16:31):
he does actually exceed expectations, even if it's not like
a fantasy expectation with in terms of like oh, I
got the touchdown in seven and fifty yards, but like
you know, it's like his ability to draw the better
corner gives makes everyone else open and makes the space
different for other people. So his kind of quiet ability
to impact first it's not quite to you because you
call their games. But you know, for I think nationally

(16:53):
we don't people like White Out One, Antonio Brown, Odell
Beckham Jr. Hulo Jones, and like people they don't think
of Keena. Just piggyback that by just saying, look, people
don't freak out. I'm not seeing his best receiver in
the league. You can make a case he's the best
route running the league and it's not. That's what I'm
trying to say. That's what I'm trying to say. Yeah,
and extending those plays I've watched corners try to play

(17:13):
press man on him. They can't. You are screwed. If
you're back and you're playing zone and you're three steps
off before you know what he is gone. He's either
inside or he's outside of you. And that's his talent.
And yes, I think he'll take advantage of Denzel Ward
or Travis Carrier, whoever he's he's got opposite. But yeah,
I go, I go turnovers. But I'm with you. I
think this is a tight one. Um, you mentioned Jacksonville Dallas.

(17:36):
Who do you think the winner is Jacks? I mean,
even though Blake was terrible last week, he had his
board leg game block a board leg game, came out
against Kansas City, which is a terrible defense. Ye have
you made him look all world So that's not going
to happen again in this one. For me, I have
Jacksonville winning in seventy two point one percent of the simulations.
But when you factor in that they're playing on the road,

(17:57):
that's when this becomes a closer game. And that's why
it's still in our tight spot situation. But I think
there's a but here's what here's really there's like one
thing that encapsulated, and it's Dak under pressure has the
lowest passerrating in the NFL, thirty six point six. In
some cases he's better off throwing into the ground and
he has two point zero yards per attempt. I'm just like,

(18:23):
what under pressure? That's insane too. And by the way,
overall on third down, it's not good for it's not
good for the Cowboys. When you're in that bottom five,
it's a it's a really tough cell, especially against this
type of defense. The the Jacks, they let me down. Obviously,
they let me down. Beatles style don't let me down.

(18:45):
They let me down. They straight up let me down.
And I was very angry with that performance. Left because
I have been professing how bad that Chief's defense is
and they made him look like they were free. Yeah,
but you know what when that game script happens when
you hop up and then someone's playing and they have
to pass all that often and it's so much pressure
in their face, don't have their starting left tackle. Like
those turnovers are some turnovers are your fault, and some

(19:05):
turnovers are bad luck. And like hitting your alignment in
the head and causing because you're trying to throw a
no look pass. Hey, Blakey's dummy throwing a no look pass.
In football, you're not playing two on two with the
y all right, you're smart. People listening, you're very smart.
And the one positive note for one positive note for
the Cowboys because we gotta do it Byron Jones. He's

(19:28):
PFF's number one ranked cornerback this season so far. He's
my number three. Um more on the case of Hayward
trained just because of influence and helping you. I didn't
think you did. Um Anyways, He's gonna be good. So
if you're figuring out which Jacksonville pass catcher to target
for your fantasy, I'm not going anywhere that's in Byron
Jones coverage. So if you're gonna try it is a
straight moonshot, but I actually have ready wait for it.

(19:50):
One of their tight ends getting a touchdown, So go
figure if you need a tight end, maybe maybe you
know what, it's kind of equal. Honestly, it's kind of equal.
So if you're desperate, pick the one whose name you
like the best that works. Yeah, I like his number. Uh,
you're smart out there, folks. And you know what else
is smart is going to zip recruiter dot com slash

(20:10):
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What does Cynthia do. She runs ten thousand simulations to

(20:32):
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They will key in on what you are looking for
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(20:56):
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(21:16):
theory the smartest way to higher All right, now we
shift from the Freeland favorites to what we like to
call Cynthia strays. Because you are strained from consensus, the
big brain folks out there that are projecting one way,
you say, uh, not buying what you're laying down there.
What I'm doing is strain from conventional wisdom. And we

(21:39):
start in the big town. How about Sam Donald, the
heck of our performance. Finally got to see some help
for freaking Sam out there. Isaiah Crowell helped him out,
Robby Anderson caught some beautiful passes, and Sam can be
celebrated for the first time since week one. But are
we saying it only took breaking a franchise rushing record
for they're rolled up him. Right. Okay, so Indianapolis travels

(22:03):
to New York and I have the Colts upsetting the
Jets twenty four twenty three. This is not a confident one, folks.
It's Indianapolis fifty two point two percent of the simulations.
But I think that's more points than you might imagine overall,
And really, what does it come down to? Checking the
injury report? This one is really important. Colts linebacker Darius

(22:24):
Leonard thirteen point five tackles per game. He didn't play
last week against the Patriots. You know why that's a
big deal. Thirteen point five tackles per game changes the
run game completely. So it's really unlikely Roel was gonna
it's gonna rush for what was it like, two hundred
and seventy thousand yards and the year a little bit high?

(22:46):
Got it? Yeah? I think it's I don't know the
exact number, so what I want to weigh in? Got it?
But it's over two hundred. He's set a record, so
I would downgrade their run game, and you know what
happens when the run game gets downgraded, then you gotta
pass more and then when you have this rookie who
has shown the ability to have the ball intercepted. I
understand the Colts are a secondary to target in the
passing game. However, I'm I'm leary of I would not

(23:09):
play anywhere. I wouldn't get anywhere near Sam Donald in
fantasy this week. I will say, however, that I do.
I might consider Andrew Luck even though he's not passing
deep balls and he does pass sevent right because he's
passing over seven seventy one point one percent of the time,
which needs the league and the Jets secondary is good
against the past. But I think Luck and whoever is

(23:31):
playing is t why playing? We don't know. We know
Jack Doyle isn't playing. We don't think he's playing so exactly.
So the point is is they've been making like they've
been spinning gold out of hay, you know, because of
Andrew Luck. So I would play Andrew Luck. I think
the Colts win. I think it's a close game. But
I have the Colts if Darius Leonard plays, Yeah, we do.

(23:55):
Were we strong? Agie Caroline at Washington? Okay, why the
pants or is going into d C and coming home
with a victory. Two Carolina wins in sixty five point
one percent of the simulations. Why you ask why, Okay,
because of their passing offense. What Yeah, so Olsen projected

(24:16):
to you potentially be back and if you track where
Washington's strong, Yeah, they're good upfront. They're not gonna let
you rush. I understand mark Ingram had himself a nice
day in his return, but this is not that was
a little more scheme and the fact that Drew Brees
is a passing throat on any down at any in
any distance. And if you do look, watch Josh Norman.

(24:39):
Go back and watch that game and watch Josh Norman.
He got benched in the game for two reasons. One
partly because he's allowing a one fifty six point three
passer rating when he's targeted three intercept or three touchdowns
no interception. And two and here's the reason why he
got benched. He's top three at points. So penalties that
resulted in points. He's allowing top three the most since

(25:02):
the beginning of last season. So stop with the defensive
penalties and maybe you can play somewhere, right. Yeah, I
think the Panthers, you know, they've kind of found something right,
they don't have, especially without Olsen, they kind of don't
have that dominant number one receiver. You know, Functius, isn't
it Obviously Tory Smith d J. Moore were waiting. The
number one pass catcher is Christian McAffrey. That's the key, though.

(25:23):
They have figured out how to do it with McCaffrey. Um,
and they are not afraid of overusing him. He's carrying
the ball like crazy, he's catching the ball like crazy,
and they are just riding that horse and he is
tough to bring down. So I'm yeah, it's odd that
kind of people are still enamored with Washingtons. A team

(25:43):
that lost to the Colts absolutely got hammered by the Saints. Um, yeah,
they got a nice win. Um, but I just I
don't know, call me, call me crazy. I just don't
get it. It's kind of like the Titans. And I
know we'll get to the Titans. Actually no, we won't,
because they're gonna by this week, right, Nope, we're going
to Titans. Were Yeah, they'll need two teams on the buyer,

(26:03):
the Saints and the Leo's that's right, Yeah, that's right.
My mistakes. See what happens when you just start running
stream of consciousness. They beat the Packers, that's what it is. Yeah,
so they beat the Packers. I was trying to figure
out who it was. Yeah. Good, And clearly the Packers
lost to the Lions last week, so they're not good.
If you lose to the Lions, I then designates the
team that's not good. I'm sorry your Patriots fans signed

(26:26):
about Wait, I do want to say something I am
I for I do a version of war. So war
is like this baseball thing, and it's wins above replacement
and it does not It's not a one for one
thing with the NFL nowhere near. But I've spent a
lot of time thinking about that. So I track kind
of like ESPN does with the QBR, or like Passeratin does,
but we try to track contribution, like actual contribution towards

(26:46):
a win over the season. And Alex Smith right now
is tracking at number nineteen. By the way, Eli Manning
is number twenty. That's not good. Um, you should be
something more like, Yeah, what surprising? Really not surprising, not surprising.
But the point is is Alex Smith will end up
probably by the end of the season tracking. I liked
about number twelve so he's due for some positive regression.

(27:09):
I hate that term, but like he's due for some
he's due for a positive uptick here in terms of that,
once a deep passing comes back, he'll be he'll get
he'll be in a better situation. Yeah, you know that.
It's a tough one for me because you're talking about
and and look, I think if you if you had
a chance to see what what Jim Harbaugh did at Stanford,
if you were paying attention to Stanford when he was there. Um,
he also did it at the University of San Diego,

(27:31):
just a tiny little school with Josh Johnson down there
as a quarterback who made his way to the NFL
because he did such great things with him. You know, Smith,
when he's been successful, has had the benefit of what
too really really good play calling head coaches and Andy
Reid and Jim Harbaugh. And I'm interested to see nothing
against Jay Gruden, but and in the class of Jim

(27:52):
Harbaugh and Andy Reid and and I'm I don't know
if Alex Smith is just really good at getting coached
up and being in that per fix system with a
great play caller and he can execute that plan. But
that's what he needs, or if he is individually talented
enough to take whatever's around him and make a good
situation out of it. I'm not quite ready to turn

(28:13):
to find out. Right, Yeah, this is it. This is
kind of one of those mid lean games right where
he should be a tipping point, a guy that's making
the money he is, that's had the success he's had
in the past. So anxious to see whether or not
he Alex Smith underrated athletes, underrated athlete. But we'll have
to see if the past catchers can help him out.
They need all right, Buffalo and Houston. Okay, Buffalo and

(28:34):
Houston seems like a mass We've heard of a lot
of rumors about Shady being traded. Deshaun Watson hasn't been
a hundred personal health, He's been on the injury report.
So this is one that could shift if we get
some weirdo news. But right now I have the Texans
coming out on top seventeen and right now, Houston wins
in seventy point to percent of the simulations. And why,

(28:55):
you may ask, because Josh Allen takes the most sex
nineteen and J. J. Watt Lee is a co leader
of the league in sacks six Jadeveon Clowney. They've got
pressures coming from all over this defensive front. Josh Allen
and this one, you know, it's not his fault, but
disadvantaged against this defense. Although both by the way, both

(29:15):
quarterbacks in this one are going to see either ground
maybe six total sacks in this game. Something like that
is a is a projection that my model has come
up with. But I think it's going to be Josh
Allen that really can't overcome them because he doesn't have
New Copkins, he doesn't have Will Fuller, he doesn't have
Kiki qt like so those other options to help him out. Yeah,
I'll just be quick on this. I I can't figure

(29:37):
out the bills because I look at that defense and
I'm just like, man, you got you know we went
through this before. At that defensive line is not that
impressive to me. Secondary. I like Tide. I think Tremade
han't going to be good, um, But it's just that
that defensive line is not good. It's playing it simple, um.
And if you're not putting pressure on the cornerback quarterback,
you're asking a lot from you know, a single corner

(29:58):
and a super young rookie linebacker that's kind of patrol
in the middle of the field. Um, Josh Allen through
for like seventy yards last week. I felt really bad
for him because I feel like, here, here's how here's
what I think. He's got no pass catchers. It's got
nobody and and it looks worse on him, and his
stats look terrible. His stats are actually like very similar

(30:18):
to that guy that was in Cleveland that's now up
in Green Bay, Deshaun Kaiser. But that's that's it's for
totally different reasons. Yeah, I think that the difference with
with Josh as he is a load when he's running
around and he can extend drives that way and get
you into field goal range. But the offensive line is
not good. Um, the pass catchers are not good. Uh. Defensively,

(30:40):
like I said, that line Kyle Williams and Lotula Le,
Trent Murphy. It's just there's tough. I can't explain the
Minnesota game other than it was they were prepared to
see him. Yeah, they weren't one all over the place
and it was turnover driven anyway, all right to uh,
Philadelphia and New York the Thursday night football game. Okay,

(31:00):
so Philadelphia goes Intimatelife Stadium tomorrow or Thursday or whenever
you're listening to this. Eagles come out on top twenty
three one. This one isn't super certain. Philadelphia wins in
fifty seven point eight percent the simulations. And for me,
this one comes down to you third down. So whence
actually third down? Erosion has come from second down, So

(31:21):
right now his completion percentages down about on third down
to forty four point four percent. That's last in case
you were keeping track, and that's causing them to really
deflate their ability to convert third down into first down.
It's been caused an uptick in turnovers they've been in.
All of their games have come down to a last
possession game, and when you're turning the ball over, you
can't stay on the field for a third down like

(31:43):
that's gonna make it a lot harder to win those
one possession games they just lost j g I. That stinks.
Wendell Smallwood should probably be used in a similar way
their short passes, but realistically, for me, they're gonna figure
it out. It's only been three games back with Wentz
under center, and there you can see the drops are
going down. Small would miss it small. Wi should have

(32:03):
caught a pass in the end zone to win that
game last week. Anyways, I digress, but they're like cusping,
they're right there. That third down will come back up.
They're they're really on the cust and their Giants Honestly,
their defensive pressure up from from Philadelphia is gonna be
too much for Eli Manning and then they are susceptible
too deep past the Philadelphia Eagles secondary. However, I don't
know if you don't have enough time to make happen. Yeah,

(32:26):
be I think this is like to get right game
for Philly, I really do. It's to me, they're just
they're more talented than they've shown thus far. I don't
know what the heck is going on with them, But
you got Chad Wheeler plan tackle. I know they got
Solder and Hernandez in there and they're all excited by that.
But he like just he doesn't have the patients. He
just does not have the patients back there. He's tired
of quit and hit and I get it. What do
you think happens first, Eric Flowers gets a new job,

(32:48):
or the Giants win a game. Oh, I don't know
about Flowers, man, I think there's so much negativity surrounding them.
But Manny's big, and he's gotten some more. He's already
gotten workout. I think. I know. There's always teams that
think they can fix you. Hey, his former first round pick,
you can fix you. And clearly they're not watching the
the film and what he's put out there. But um,

(33:09):
I don't know. I don't have to look at the
Giant schedule while you put me on a spot like that.
I'm just saying, they got Atlanta, they got Washington, San Francisco.
I'll go with does practice squad count Nope? Starting job active,
you don't know, act as a stact of Rosster. You
don't need a starting job. I'll go Giants, good a one, Okay,

(33:30):
all right, I'll take the other. Ok yeah, all right,
let's see exactly. All right, let's go Kansas City at
New England. Okay, Patriots win thirty one twenty nine. You
hear me, thirty one twenty nine. That's a closed game.
New England wins in only fifty eight of the simulations.

(33:52):
And why you ask listen, why the Pats will have
to keep Patrick Mahomes in the pocket longer than he's
comfortable If he throws the ball quickly and so less
than two point five seconds, ten touchdowns, zero interception, number
one in the NFL, yards per temp nine and a
half passer rating point five. Yep, quick pass has got
to take those away. So the Pats, we've seen they

(34:13):
go as their linebackers go, especially Patrick Chunk, and if
they can, if Patrick Mahomes gets the best of those
linebackers who they've they've been depleted, we've seen them have
not depth, the opposite of depth, thinness whatever at the
linebacking position, so that they go the way of their linebackers.

(34:33):
So I just have their linebackers overtaking their ability to
because because look, the thing that the that the UM
Kansas City won't have in their favor is that Tom
Brady's gonna be able to score against their defense. So
they're gonna have to keep pace. And this one's going
to be one of those close like keep pace. You know,
at the end of the game, whoever has the ball
last likely to win the game. So they've gotta keep pace.

(34:54):
And I think you mentioned Patrick Chung and remember he
was out early UM and you know he's their box
efty and he's always putting you know he might as
well be a linebacker in there for how important he
is to slow that run down. And that I think
was a reason why you saw that shift for the
Patriots and they got a lot better well, and because
it September, because remember we can't talk about the Patriots.
They just can't play. Look, they Andy Reid House to

(35:17):
the Patriots last year. I understand he had an entire
season to get ready for him. Um, this this is
my this is my heir, it is this is my
litmus test, right, my whole mocking you for taking the
Chiefs to win. They keep it close like this. Do
you think that they're able to win the Super Bowl
because they're traveling to a really tough schedule. If they can,

(35:39):
I think Tom Brady should be able to tear the
Tom Brady justin Houston and detail are not maybe not
playing there on the injury report at least they're not
percent healthy. If they do play, should shred it. And
I think that'll be a reminder of hey, you gotta
have both sides in the playoffs. But if they don't,
then you're gonna then you're gonna become a Chief. Absolutely,
I think I thought they they should have lost the

(36:01):
game to Denver. I thought that was gonna be a
tough one for him, just because of the atmosphere and
case Kingdom blew that one. I thought last week was
going to be tough for him. The defense stepped up
and Mahomes tore him apart. Man, I mean, there's just
no two people. Was he great? No, I'm glad. I
shouldn't say I'm glad. That's not the way I mean it.
But I just I felt like, let me see a
true challenge for Mahomes and easy going to start showing

(36:22):
some of that youth. And yeah, he threw a couple
of picks. So I think this is this is kind
of to me, that tipping point. If he can go
into New England beat the Patriots, put against what if
he what if he win? What if he loses but
only by two, like I suggest, then is he still legit?
I think so? Okay, Yeah, I think so. I think
there's a moral loss here. I think because look, there
are two games up in the division right now, and

(36:42):
the Chargers right and they already beat him, So technically
they're kind of three games up on him right at
five and three and two, but they already won the
head to head in l A. So yeah, I think
if you keep it closes, feel pretty good about them
keeping the pace against lesser competition because I think this
will probably be the toughest. This is obviously the Rams
game down in My to Go City that they'll play.
I think that's like week of leven issue. I don't know.

(37:02):
I think this one might be tougher only because they're
coming off of last weekend, which was tough. I mean,
it didn't the preparation for the Jags was tough. The
game didn't end up being as tough as we thought
because of whatever we all saw what happened. But I
think this one might be tough because it's two weeks
in a row of like Tom Brady mind manipulating you.
You know. So that's all right. We continue with Cynthia Strays,

(37:26):
and she's strays from consensus because a lot of people
excited about the Vikings after they went to Philly beat
the defending Super Bowl champs, and you combine that with
Josh Rosen guiding the Cards to their first victory. So
we called that upset here on this podcast. Did you
kind of like, uh, you kind of like the Cards
to keep this one a little close do so the
Vikings come out with a win, but I only have

(37:47):
it being seventeen, so it's only touchdown here. And Minnesota
wins in sixty eight point two percent of the simulations,
and this lower st going game more often than not
in the model. And here's the difference. The Vikings get
the wind because of defensive pressure and it's a huge
driver of success. And Rosen's both been pressured most of

(38:07):
the time, and the Vikings have the highest rate of
pressure applied just thirty so Rosen's passer rating drops down
to third lowest under pressure. Those three things combined to
really drive the wind for the Vikings. But what keeps
it close is Josh Rosen when he's not under pressure,
He's been great, right, two touchdowns, zero interceptions, over one

(38:28):
passer rating. They've got the balance with David John's in
the run game and the ability to like I think
they're I understand their one win and I'm I'm banging
the drum for them to only lose by touchdown, but
I think this is promised for the future. If I'm
a Cardinals fan, I'm psyched because I've now seen like
this guy's in bad circumstances. He's getting pressure left and right,
but he's making stuff happen and a lot of people,

(38:50):
a lot of pass catchers are benefiting from it. So
that's an interesting one for me, real quick for me.
And and you know, obviously I've seen a ton of
Josh played high school here for a squad called USCO,
where he was remarkable. He and this dude Shaw McGrew
who plays at Washington right now for the Huskies, were
just well to watch the McGrew crew to watch. And
uh and as good as Rosen was, McGrew was better,
by the way, like but it just anyway, Um, watching

(39:13):
him at U c l A played behind the suspect
offensive line was great. You saw, I mean you see
U c l A winless this year, how much he
masked because he's that good. It really surprised me in
the preseason game against the Chargers at kind of how
stiff he looked and how he didn't move as well
as I had thought he would when he was under pressure.

(39:35):
And when you bring up that he had the third
lowest passer rating under pressure, I'm like, you know, this
is gonna be a good sort of test because yeah,
just for me, selfishly because I was like, oh wow,
I didn't I didn't think I was gonna see that.
That's a little bit of a red flag for a
guy with all this armed talent and who's a very
cerebral can diagnose defense at a very young age as
a rookie quarterback. If he's kind of stiff and he

(39:57):
struggles to move around, that's gonna be a problem. Um,
no matter how much arm talent or you're just going
to really have the three and the clean just to
see it, exactly anxious to see it in this one.
So one thing that's fun on the Viking side of
the ball here, they got their center back offline, so
that's better. That really helped against the against Pittsburg, Pittsburgh

(40:18):
against Philadelphia last week. And obviously everyone knows the stat
Sylvanians all the same. Yeah, just ask, I'll tell you.
But the obviously the Vikings is the only team with
no rushing touchdown yet this season. And does it happen
today or not today Sunday? Yeah, it does in my model,
so they get off the rushing touchdown. Schneid, I don't

(40:40):
actually know what that means, but I've heard other people say,
Schneide seems like a good words offensive. Then sorry, I
don't know what it means. So let's get one more
stray stray in here. Monday night er. Green Bay Packers
win one. That's not surprising, but I think I don't
think you think we yep, green Bay wins and seventy

(41:02):
two three percent of the simulations. But it's kind of funny.
So the run game here, because part of the reason
why San Francisco keeps it closes they've got like to
use Kyle juice check and I'm probably you know, Matt
Breed is gone, right, so I'm probably saying this Kyle
juice check thing as a not necessary yeah right, Like,
so I'm saying it as he's gonna catch pass. It's

(41:24):
not that they're gonna go super you know, um full
back heavy, right, They're gonna use him in the past
catching game. So creative uses for this offense is part
of what keeps San Francisco in it, especially since we
don't know what's going to happen with the run games,
so you have some kind of an illogical script. San
Francisco is gonna have to be throwing even if you know,
no matter what, they can't stabilize their pass game with

(41:45):
a run game, they're gonna have to like throw it
kind of a lot here and obviously Green Bay, oh
my goodness, poor kickers. Um, this this one is going
to be more of like the game SCRIPTY thought last
week we didn't. I thought we'd see a lot more
Aaron Jones because I thought against a lion screen, Bay
would go way up and they'd be able to run
the ball. But apparently when you miss all of your
field goals, then you have to keep throwing for like

(42:05):
five thousand, six hundred and seventy five yards. That's a
little high but close. Um, but ultimately be a record,
a record, right, So but ultimately you know you have
like all of those passing yards because you played from behind.
Your kicker can't help you. That's not going to happen again.
More logical game script here. Yes, we do see eleven
personnel with the Packers quite a bit, which means three
wide receivers. But I also think we see fewer empty

(42:27):
empty sets meeting no running backs, and we see Aaron Jones.
The Mason Crosby's a good kicker. Yes, four field goals. Internet,
that was crazy, It was just crazy. I think there
was like a fan on there's some fan on it
for exactly something. They froze the balls that he was
using in their bag or something like that. Heck if
I know, But it was not the one Aaron Michigan

(42:49):
was like very toxic and it like made the change
changed the trajectory of the wind inside Ford field. Yep.
I also expect it will happen again. They open a
window right before every time the h You mentioned us
check and I had a defensive coordinator. Um heard from
a defensive coordinate that he's one of the tougher guys
to cover that. You know, for all the people that

(43:10):
made fun of that signing and how much they paid him,
they paid him. They made him the highest. They paid
him like five point five to be a fullback, right
over the going rate of what he was likely to get.
But he said, it's just it's impossible because he can
run between the tackles, he can catch the ball in
the backfield. He's a great blocker as Matt Ryan who
who where he came from? He came from when went

(43:30):
to the forty niners. He paid Kyle juice Check a lot.
You ask, you ask a guy who under who understands
what a good fullback means and that system that Kyle
Shanahan runs and pay the man he's not. That's the
thing is, he's not really a fullback. They can do
so much with him. You don't treat him as just
because you can line them up out wide and he

(43:51):
can run and catch. Uh not Levy on Bell style,
but very similar to putting the pressure on the defense
that way because you don't know what he's gonna do anyway. Uh,
quick thing for you gentlemen out there on You know
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online visit. Cynthia, we do the Fantasy Live together. Uh,
you share your fantasy nugs on there. So how about
you give us some fantasy futures, some prop some some

(45:43):
I guess proper positioning of players to uh put a
fantasy team in position to get a suite victory this week. Absolutely,
so I'm giving you three. The first one is Robbie
Anderson and if you want to be more specific, yeah,
big one. But he's the mass of the go route
and he's gonna get another go touchdown this week. Then

(46:04):
I have Kiki q C. Obviously we've seen his upticks
something like eleven targets in each of his past two games.
That's a crazy amount. I think he sees the end
zone here as well this week. And Christian Kirk I
already told you I like Minnesota to be a little
surprised at how good Josh Rosen is. And you know why,
because Christian Kirk ends up in the end zone. I

(46:24):
like it. You've got three dudes that likely would have
been on your bench instead you say put him in
the lineup. It go with the hot hand, not chasing points.
You're just going with the hot hand. That's all you're doing.
Robby Anderson two tts last week QT has done what
did it last week? Christian Kirk did it last week? Uh, wonderful.
So let's go from that to what we'd like to
call totally tempting to think you think maybe you got

(46:47):
a winner, but maybe you don't. Maybe instead you just
kind of look at how this game is gonna play out,
and that's the more compelling conversation to have. So we
get started with totally tempting and that a f C
North battle Pittsburgh as Cincinnati, the Steelers winning twenty three.
See what I mean to take the Steelers. It's a

(47:08):
tight contest, but that's not as convincing as what Pittsburgh
only wins in fifty four point five percent of the simulations,
but it's more of like a traditional a s C
North bruiser battle where you don't see as many points
as you would imagine it. Given the fact that both
of these teams right now are averaging something like twenty

(47:29):
eight point six points per game on offense for Pittsburgh
and thirty point six for Cincinnati, both in like the
top eight in terms of points per game scored on offense,
that's not gonna happen. They've had some extra Pittsburgh play
a little extra football. The average twelve point eight drives
per game. That's insane. Think of eleven as a normal amount.
So I think this one stays a nice more traditional

(47:51):
a f C North. Come on, Steelers, get back to
the Steel curtain. All right, let's play a little bit.
It's weird here, let's keep this thing tight. These teams
are kind of like mirror images in a lot of ways.
Right to the top of the league's top five scoring offenses,
each have a defender tied for league lead in sacks,
so GINO Atkins on one side, and then both of
the Wap brothers so T. J. Watt in the case
of the Steelers on the other side. And by the way,

(48:12):
like they're kind of the their secondaries are both very
targetable kind of pointing. Yeah, so they're they're kind of
mirror image teams. So for me, this one it just
came down to the old line keeping their quarterback clean,
and the old line advantage in this one goes to
Pittsburgh for me. All right, let's go Rams vy Broncos. Okay,
Rams win seven twenty three. Now Rams win in sixty

(48:34):
of the contest. But here's the here's the here's the
question mark. Here You've got Brandon Cooks and Cooper Cup
who are still on the injury reports, so we're not
sure what's going on there. They keep an eye on
that we know, and no revenge revenge game, um, no revenge.
Keep to leave narrative that has done. But the problem
here is is when you have something unsustainable like thirty

(48:56):
four point six points per game and by the way,
you know, only allowing fifteen points per him, and then
Denver's averaging scoring twenty points per game. That guy, sorry,
nineteen point six is what their Rams are allowing. Denver's
averaging scoring twenty points game. It's not gonna be like,
oh wow, there's another one that's like closer to sixty
than is to fifty. This one's like, you know, gonna
be a little bit more tempered. It's at Denver. There's

(49:18):
been a lot of injury concerns. I think you take
this one and you say, okay, Rams get a nice
solid win. But it's not gonna be one of those
crazy like, hey, by the way, in Seattle, we're going
to go back and forth and back and forth for
a bunch of extra possessions and score on all of
them right, like they're averaging the Rams are averaging three
point one two points per drive, like think of two
point seven as the league leader over the course of

(49:40):
the season. So that's the one thing I'm just trying
to figure out is after watching what Sam Donald did, um,
and again it's cooks and cup and yeah, but then
like watch what my home like, think about my home
the day before, right or not today before the week before.
So yeah, I just man, that's what I mean. It's
just it's hard to figure out. You know, what is
that Broncos. The I had just assumed they were gonna

(50:02):
rip Sam Donald apart, and he got him. You know,
we caught him napping on those go routes with Robbie Anderson.
Not granted, case Keenum has not been good. Um, they
paid him a lot of money to be that missing
piece of quarterback and he has not been. He's turning
the ball over. But the Rams, you know, for all
the celebration of that defense and the names they collected
to keep to leave and dominck Ensue and Marcus Peters,
Peters are getting torched on double moves. I mean, the

(50:24):
teams are actually targeting Marcus Peters happened last week in Seattle.
I mean, in a game where there was no one
keep to leave. Russell Wilson was throwing at Marcus Peters
almost the whole time and just barely even pump fake
and the dude was biting on every one of them
because all he wants to do is intercept the ball.
So be interesting to see if if they can figure
that out in Denver as well. And like you said,

(50:45):
keep it a little bit closer than people think, But again,
watch the injury report on this one, because that could
change my mind. But given what we know right now,
I think it's going to be a closer match, but
also just leasically more like average football score than this
crazy AM's like high octane offense and allowing a billion
points more today one more tempting, totally tempting to think

(51:09):
that Tennessee in Baltimore is going to be this really crazy,
high scoring affair. I have the Ravens winning, Baltimore wins
and sixty point three percent of the simulations, and I think, look,
it's double what people would think they would in this
contest right well, by the way, just spoiler, Baltimore is
averaging twenty six point four points per game. Their offenses

(51:32):
scoring points like and their defense right, and their defense
is actually giving up the fewest points per game fifteen
point four. So I think that's why people are then Tennessee.
By the way, Tennessee is kind of even their scoring
seventeen point four points per game and they're giving up
seventeen point two points per game. So that's where the
discrepancy lies, and that's what drives Baltimore to win. But

(51:52):
I don't think this is going to be hugely high
scoring affair. I just think it's going to be a
more tempered normal score. Got you it's oh a f
C North style scores. What you're saying, Ravens defense not quite.
Ravens defense dominates Tennessee's offense. Flora two is the final

(52:14):
We are currently using g suite. We do it here
on the Game Theory and Money podcast. If you aren't
familiar with what g suite is, it's a fancy name
for Gmail, Google docs, slide sheets, drive uh. And they
are great. I mean they really are invaluable for what
we do because a lot of times we are running
around and doing money. Money is trying to leave me
for London. Well, I am going to leave you for

(52:37):
next to me. I put for now, I left you
for Tusting not quite London, but Tustin. Uh to do
some work with the charges today and we're able to
tweak the rundown and what we want to do here
on the game theory and money podcasts with our Google docs.
And if you weren't aware of what it is, basically,
think of if we had to email a doc back
and forth and Oh, I'm gonna make this change, I'm

(52:58):
gonna email it back to you and then produce shop.
He's gotta get in here. Oh I made a change.
Now I gotta email back at both of you. Oh
I forgot to include So now you're reading the wrong
thing and this is bad and we gotta start over again. No,
so much for the Oh this is the final, final no.
With g Suite by Google Cloud, with Gmail doc slides,
you can make real time updates. As a matter of fact,

(53:20):
that just happened before we started this pot I yelled
at Shoppy because he was trying to delete something. I
was like, what are you doing? Are you doing? Get
your highlighter off our doc right now? Shoppy? He was like, sorry, man,
I'm just trying to leave stop stop right now what
we do? Uh? So we speak from experience. The tools
are all cloud based. Your whole team can access the
exact same document and work on the same page at

(53:40):
the same time. Cynthia could have helped us edited, but
she was too busy making fun of how I look
on the Skype. So you know, that's just the trip.
Find out more about g sweet productivity tools visit g
sweet dot com. That's g suite dot com. Make it
with g suite by Google Cloud. Alright, we have one
one last bit. But you know what I really was doing.
I was figuring out where the cough button was on

(54:01):
this so I could strategically mute during portions of the show.
How convenient to view? How convenient? That's what I was
really doing. What you're doing that step in? All right,
here we go the most important part of the podcast.
We close with your confidence recap. Three things that you
are I'm going for this week because I'm generous. Really,

(54:22):
ye do that? If you want? Yeah, back for three? Well,
I'm giving for three well like things, and I understand
that the standards three. But then you can pick three
of your favorite four. But then you're making me choose
I don't want to choose Bears win by more than three.
That's how tell me which one is the bonus? Okay,
I'll tell you which because it's what we started and
ended with all good stories. Like a good story, we

(54:42):
start in the beginning and then we know exactly and
put it back booking. Thank you, thank you, produced Shoby,
just help me with the word book. Okay, Bears eight teams,
the lower scoring game, but the Bears win convincingly five
points in Miami Arizona. Yeah, bes say lower scoring like
the Bears, more like the Bears. Yeah, I think Arizona

(55:04):
keeps it closer in Minnesota. Again, reminder, I have Vikings
winning a seventeen, but I don't think Arizona gets embarrassed.
I think they have a nice solid showing. And and
this a f C North tilt Pittsburgh and Cincinnati more
vinta JFC North. So I think it's going to be
kind of a lower scoring game than their current paces pit.

(55:25):
For me, that's a more traditional score. And then here's
the bonus, because this is what we started with and
we're gonna book end it with it. Jacksonville Dallas. I
think that was gonna have more points than you might.
Higher scoring, higher scoring I'm gonna do the host has
nothing to offer thing and recap for you. Why don't
you tell me? Why don't you tell me? As? I think?

(55:47):
Probably those three? I think I like the Bears the most. Yeah,
I just think you you match up poor third down offense,
spectacular third down defense and uh and what did I say?
I'm tired of getting food to buy. The Dolphins and
the All Foons made a fool of me. So yeah,
I'll take the Bears to win that one and really
make life miserable for for Ryan Tannehill. Um, so yeah,

(56:08):
there you go, Bears big or Bears win over the Dolphins,
Arizona keeping it close and an NFC North style showdown
against two explosive offenses between two explosive offenses Pitt and
cincinating your bonus is high scoring game between the Jacks
and the Cowboys. Did I miss anything? No, you got
it perfectly right. You're the best host on the planet.
That's not true. It actually you know what I am

(56:29):
on the best host in this room. No, you are
the best host. We're not in the same room on
the alright, Thanks everybody, downloading, streaming, listening, if you can
write a review, that'd be great, and if you can
share it with your friends for social media, that would
be great as well. They're both equally great. One is
not better than the other. We appreciated downloading, streaming, listening today.
We'll be back again next week at some point, perhaps

(56:51):
from two different countries. I don't think so. I don't
think so. I think if you do it from London,
you have to do in a London accent the whole time. Well,
then we're doing it here a British accent, because I
don't have a British accent, don't have a Cockney accent,
and I'm a Schottish. I don't have an Irish accent either.
I don't have any of them. The morning i'll be
I'll be doing it from here, all right, Thanks everybody.

(57:12):
We'll be back next week