Game Theory and Money Week 7 Predictions

Cynthia Frelund predicted 11 winners correctly from week 6, and she's ready to build on that momentum as we head into week 7. Chargers-Titans (4:18). Panthers-Eagles (6:35). Lions-Dolphins (11:05). Patriots-Bears (13:00). Vikings-Jets (17:22). Bills-Colts (21:35). Rams-49ers (23:47). Cardinals-Broncos (28:45). Saints-Ravens (31:10). Cowboys-Redskins (34:35). Browns-Buccaneers (38:02). Texans-Jaguars (44:50). Bengals-Chiefs (48:35). Falcons-Giants (50:45).

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
A big happy week seven to all of you's out there.
This is game theory and money, and a big thank
you to everybody that spread the good word. Uh. You know,
some people spread the good word about certain things, about
certain books. As far as we are concerned, this is
the book to spread the good word about. When it
comes to the autumnal season, as we make our way
into winter, and before you know it, the old daylight

(00:22):
saving And if I may make this p s A Cynthia,
will you will permit me? Real quick, real quick? It's
daylight saving time. It's not a savings account that you
put daylight into. What you're doing is you are saving daylight.
So see what it's. It's farmers. That's why they did it.
It's stupid that we still do it. We should just

(00:43):
I'm actually I'm actually a I'm on the side of
we need to get rid of it, right. I never
know if it's E D T or E s T
when we're talking about Eastern Eastern Time or whatever. So
let's just get us get rid of it. Exactly. Is
a Pacific CENTERD time is a Pacific daylight tel book.
We're gonna go back, We're gonna go fall back. In
a minute, just when you're talking to your friends or

(01:03):
your coch this weekend, it's coming up, just remember to
say it's daylight saving time. Daylight savings All right with that? Well,
bring you a week seven. Um again, if you are
just kind of getting the word on this podcast, thank
you for checking us out, and those little asides by
me are few and far between, because you're here for
one reason, and it is for Cynthia's big brain. She

(01:24):
is our predictive analytics expert multiple degrees from fancy institutions
like Northwestern, where apparently, if you're a big executive at
the NFL network, you can't do simple math when you're
sending out emails to everybody Mark Brady. So much for
Northwestern and their math department. But Cynthia runs her own
Monte Carlo meth that her model spits out ten thousand
simulations for each and every game. It gives you a
final score, it gives you a winner, and it gives

(01:48):
you the margin of victory. And that is extremely important
to a lot of folks who listen, So thank you
for checking us out. Cynthia is gonna walk you through
the model. Um. I think that covers it right, Cynthia's
big brain north Western were You know what, though I'm
hot with my quick pick here in the beginning, I'm
gonna give you that I really like. Last week, I
told you there'll be lots of points in the Jacksonville game,

(02:08):
and this week I'm also telling you Jacksonville Houston. I
think the final score is gonna be twenty. You're not
gonna know who's gonna win it yet, but I'm going
to tell you that's more points than you might think.
Given that it's Houston and Jacksonville and we often think
of both of their offenses as having druggling laws, I
would say up to forty six that's a pretty big number.
Sure is a lot of folks out there are projecting

(02:31):
that to be. All right, let's recap week six. Last
week you want eleven and four, you are sixty one
and thirty two on the year, five point five percent
something like that. That That is that it's about I see
what you've just did there? You know exact you calculated it,
and you just tried to play it off by like,
let me see what would that be? Is that? Oh? Well,
you know a four five, you knew what it was.

(02:54):
You don't play that game. You know how. I know
you did it because that's what I do, and I'm
not in my mind you don't play that game? Are you?
Of your confidence picks? You have hit on twelve of
those of the twenty. Would you care to uh share
what percentage that is? Because I know what it is.
Real ahead, go ahead, come boom, don't patronize me, yes,

(03:14):
of course, All right, here we go, Cynthia. We start
with your favorites. We call them the Freeland favorites because
that's the literation, and I'm addicted to it. Um. And
these are favorites, and you like the favorite, you'll like
them in some cases buy a lot bigger number than
what they are currently favored by. As it sits right now,
we're starting with Tennessee and Los Angeles. I'm gonna be
on a bird that no time heading over exactly. I

(03:37):
want to point out that we haven't had as many
typically we have at least kind of two days of
injury report information. And since we're since you're so awesome
to fit this into your schedule early before you fly,
we've only gotten one day. So there's gonna be I
want you to stay tuned to my Twitter account to
make sure that everything kind of stays where we're setting
it because we're doing the potty day early. So just

(03:58):
it's it's a really important note because things change, you know,
lots of stuff changes. That Twitter handle is at it's
not spelled like it sounds. F r E l u
n D exactly. She's not a freelander, I'm not. So
there you go see free Land. F R E l
u n D is where you get that updated. When
it comes to injury, that's all right. What is your

(04:19):
what is your conclusion? What is the what is the
number here? You're gonna be happy over in what is it?
Jolly old England? I hope. So the Chargers coming out
a long way to go to be upset. Sure Chargers
are gonna win nineteen in my model, in seventy eight
point two percent of the simulations, the Chargers come out
on top and they win by over a touchdown in

(04:41):
sixty eight point eight of those. So that's a really
pretty big, convincing win. They are the only team that
has scored three touchdowns in every single game this year.
Believe it or not, that the Kansas City Chiefs have
not scored three touchdowns in every game, but the Chargers
have the offense has been operating at maximum efficiency. It's
unfortunate that you had that kind of stumble at the

(05:02):
beginning of the season because the Chargers are kind of
and this is I feel like it always happens right
about now every season. Everyone's like Chargers are going to
the playoffs. It's happening. So it just feels like this
is the time, and realistically, in the model for me,
it really boils out too. You saw how many times
Marcus Mariotta got sacked last game, and part of it's
a lot part of the reason for that is that

(05:25):
the Ravens are really good. And then the other part
of that is that Mark Smarrito is hanging out to
the ball trying to force things to happen, and this
isn't the defense to do that against. In fact, I
heard you on Fancy Live today say to take the
Chargers if it's a streaming defense, and I'm doubling down
on that right now. Yeah, they're they're deef and it's
interesting because they are playing and they I don't know
why Gus Bradley did it this way, but to start

(05:46):
the season he wasn't playing six defensive backs, which is
what pretty much his base defense was for the majority
of the year last year, when they were I think
the third ranked scoring defense and like the fifth ranked
defense over all. We're not good against the run, which
you would expect if you get a bunch of small
guys out there, well smaller guys out there, because there's
six defensive back. But ever since they shifted um and

(06:08):
they really did it out of necessity, Kaiser White, the
rookie out of West Virginia has been heard, and now
Joe Davis Brown has been banged up and just starting
like about two and a half games ago. When that happened,
you saw a lot of Adrian Phillips and Desmond King
out there. Desmond King is the one who flags as
the biggest improvement. I mean, look, you already had Casey Hayward,
who's nasty. You already at Derwin James, who's nasty. So

(06:29):
that's the one that was just the one that kind
of flagged as the biggest You're all right, let's shift
to uh the Panthers coming off a tough loss there
heading that insanity at the end of that game, those passes,
oh my goodness, just Cam could not connect with his
receivers in the end zone. It was really it was
kind of strange actually, so um, I looked into that
in a second. But the model says that the Eagles

(06:50):
will win twenty one. So the model Philadelphia wins in
fifty six point one and and and they win by
at least like, you know, more like five. Maybe it's
a bit more than than a field goal in fifty
four point seven percent of the simulations. So for for me,
it's the Philadelphia's passing offense, UM and total offense really

(07:14):
just outmatches Caroline's past defense. That's just kind of the
long and short of it there. Yeah, it's you know,
it's it's a game that that's at four and a
half right now, Philadelphia is is favored. Um, you've got
them buy that at you know a little bit more
than that. And I think it's just kind of hard
right to, I would guess, or maybe it's not for
your model to project a trend because Carson Wentz has

(07:34):
been gradually better every single game that he's been back.
Makes sense right after injury, and if you look at
what how he's being better, it's about like if you
look at look his separation, So the target separation that
next gen stats show this kind of really perfectly. Last
season two point seven yards, this season three point eight.

(07:55):
And the reason that he's getting more separation from his
targets is he's throwing shorter asses. So last season seven
point seven are yards per tempt. This season he ranks
second highest with nine point nine are yards per tempt.
So ultimately you're gonna see, sorry, that was last season,
I reverse that's this year. It's seven point seven areas pertempt,
which is twenty five. So you're seeing these shorter passes,

(08:16):
higher completion percentages. Complet percentages jumped eight percent. It's really
they're they're trying to work this in and they're trying
to overcome injuries to their running backs. Were using short
passes to substitute in the run game. So the diversity
of their offensive attack is on the uptick and that's
what really overcomes Carolina's defense, which, by the way, Carolina's
defense is good. It's just that Philadelphia's offense gets the

(08:36):
advantage here. I guess the only the only concern I
have with with Philadelphia is there's a lot of heat
on them looking for help, right. You know, you've heard
they had conversation about Sean McCoy. You heard they had
a conversation about Levy on Bell. We've heard that maybe
they made a call on a Mari Cooper and that
was what God, I feel like, I feel like those

(08:58):
things like, Look, there's been a lot of Tree rumors
more so than I think I can remember in at
least several years that I can think of, and those
like Amari Cooper, Emmanuel Sanders, Leshon McCoy left. But all
these different things, I feel like Philadelphia is always the
one who they're like blaming because last season they maybe
because they like traded for j Gi mid season last year.
But I'm I guess I'll not to mention all their

(09:19):
trades in the off season. Look at that team and
you can see the holes, right, I mean you can
see that they probably need a second wide receiver, they
need a speed guy. They got to get somebody they
can take the top off a defense, because that's just
not what aglare is that maybe they just people taking
the top off their defense. Well that's that's the other thing,
right as we've heard that they also may be looking
for someone in the second there, So that's my you

(09:40):
know what I mean? Like, that's my only concerns, Like, well, hey,
if they don't have confidence in the guys that they're
putting on the field and it's going up against a
pretty darn goood Carolina team, I just think that's like
the Howie Roseman Trader Special, like we're open for all negotiations.
I just feel like that's like that last year it did.
But I feel like that's I just feel like you
always hear that, and so maybe because you always, like
you know, you always hear about how He being at

(10:02):
least contacted for it. Right, anytime there's a trade rumor,
you always hear, oh the Eagles something. I think that's
like the Howie Roseman Special. So I mean, despite there
being a way bigger, at least rumblings of trades right now,
I don't know if I think I think they just
call how He because I was like, yeah, I'll listen
to you talk to me. I don't right, maybe you
catch him on a bad day and he does the
deal that you want to do when you win the trade,

(10:23):
you have anything any other nuggets, Yeah, just when we're
nugget here. The way that Cam wins this game, the
way that Carolina wins this game is that they can
really get Cam going with play action when he when
he uses play action, he is a plus fifty pass
ratings who increases like one thirty is what it is
when he's using play action and he averages eight point
nine versus six yards per attempt. So that's the one

(10:44):
way that you know, Cam and play action, like, that's
how they'll pull it off if it works out. That's
kind of that's just you know, I like to see
the contrarian point, Like, Okay, so if the other team
is gonna win, what do they need to do in
this case? It's Cam play action, all right? You know
where we gotta go? Now, Yeah, favorite, the current the

(11:05):
current favorite in this context between Detroit and miamis uh
and there are it's it's currently minus one. My model
says the Lions. Now, I'm gonna say it's bigger than that.
You would be or you wouldn't be. I won't know.
I just I think the lines are better team, you know.
I think the lines are kind of that, and you
know this is how you know, Yeah, well here's the thing.

(11:27):
This is how you know I'm not better than their record,
right they are? Yeah, I don't know I'm like, here,
here's the problem. I look at the math. I do
all the math blind. All of this stuff is unbiased
because you can't be once you start to meet people,
then you can't not like certain people. So I do
everything blind and it pops out and I'm like, oh
my gosh, what's going to happen. By the way, Detroit

(11:48):
wins and models. They win by one and six of
the model And as of right now, it's unclear to
me exactly. You know, obviously, we don't know who's playing
quarterback for Miami. There's I don't know if Ryan Tannehill
is better. We haven't had the injury report, so it's
it's unclear for me how to completely model this. You
have to see this one might get updated with maybe

(12:08):
a slightly closer maybe slightly less close game. But if
you think Matt Patricia and Adam Gaze their friends, they
talk a lot. If you think Matt Patricia doesn't want
to get this one on Adam, you're you're crazy because
he's had a full week off. They want to come
back and kind of a tone for some some strange losses.
The beginning of season starts again that Jets last week

(12:30):
one where here we go. We're atoning for that, that
kind of thing. So you're right, I do think once
we see the final injury report, that will matter. And
by the way of Ziggy and Saws playing, you're darn
right that Lione score will go up. So the again,
stay tuned for this one. Okay. Uh, These are what
we like to call the the Pete Hogwalla Pete del

(12:50):
mar o'donald's. The average were still favorites, still favorites, but
not scales are tipping. No, they are not winning by
a number larger than what they should. So what do
we mean by that? Patriots bears right now, the Paths

(13:11):
are favored by three and you have them, what you know,
I have the Patriots right now, which really nets out
in one. That's not a convincing win in terms of
if you think three is the is the kind of
standard that you're measuring against one is less than that.
New England wins in fifty six point seven percent of
the models. But if you're thinking about kind of readjusting

(13:33):
everything and figuring out is it going to be a
close win, that's what the model really indicates. For now,
I want to make one huge, giant monstrous literally monstrous
asterix not literally you hate Khalil Mack. We have no idea.
It's it's Tuesday. I don't know if he's okay. Do
you know if he's okay? Do you have a do
you have like the hotline straight into him? Don't know

(13:54):
his family, so Ryan Pace don't know uh, Matt Naggie,
you don't know any of those folks. Honestly, not have
any inside info. I'm gonna tell you knowing them like
it doesn't matter. They're not gonna tell you either way, right,
so you can know them all you want. We have
no idea, So pay attention to this one. I'm really
look defensive pressures in this one is really interesting because

(14:16):
New England hasn't really been able to create the kind
of pressure that you think of, like when you think
of Khalil Mack or a chem Hicks who are pressuring
opposing quarterbacks from all sides of that defensive line. New
England hasn't been able to generate that kind of pressure
this season. So don't be surprised if the Bears look
quote unquote better than you would think against the Patriots, right, Like,

(14:38):
that's not Mitchell Drobiski is for real. This offense is
for real. Matt Naggie will have them. Remember Matt Naggie,
he was in Kansas City. Andy Reid has the cheap
code on on how to get the best of the
Patriots and target their linebackers who are where they're vulnerable.
So keeping it close makes a lot of sense. But
if without your personnel, without that defensive personnel, that one

(14:59):
big guy, it would change things considerably. And I guess
the one thing I look at here when when and
I think Patriots. I think they house him. I do, Um,
I know it's in Chicago. I just feel like the
Patriots are playing the best football in the NFL right now. Um.
I know defensively there's a lot of issues there, but
I mean they're averaging a game the last three. I mean,

(15:20):
but they've had I know, But I'm like, do we
really think Mitchell Drubisky can put a forty spot up there?
I just think I know, we threw those six touchdowns
on all them wheel routes. It's just really hard, That's
what it was. All the wheel round they were really
you can't you guys can't adjust. You haven't noticed that

(15:41):
the four route on the Bears though, right, the Bears defense. Look,
it's not like Khalil Khalil Mack makes a difference, but
their defense was nasty before. They're just extra nasty with him.
I do think that we saw some vulnerabilities against the
Dolphins in terms of you know, I think before that
people the Super Bowl Bears like it's a lock, and

(16:02):
there's no way you can say that at this point
in this season, but I do. I think I think
the point is is that I wouldn't underrate this Bears
defense at all. There's a lot of great pieces to
it in addition to Khalio Max. Yeah, but I think
Max's got to be there to get all those other
pieces to work. I think Ma's got to be there

(16:22):
to have a chance to beat the paths. But I
don't I don't think it's like this huge route if
he's not. I like the paths. I just think maybe
it's a little bit bigger. We'll see that thought. The
Miami game was odd to me, and again, well, yes,
the whole Miami game is odd. It was. It was
totally hot. There's a lot of luck there too, right,
like insane. Yeah, it's maybe it's just me being skeptical

(16:47):
based on there. It was also a hundred degrees. By
the way, the Bears were also playing in like a
hundred degrees and they were on the side of the
field the hard Rock Stadium. One side has a monstrous
shadow and the Dolphins take that side and the other
side is like direct sunlight and then they give that
to their opponents, and it was like a hundred degrees.
It felt like a hundred degrees with the humidity. So
I know that's I know that sounds stupid, but those

(17:08):
things do factor into how teams look and if you
get gassed really early or you know that, it really
kind of tends to impact the defense more so exactly
the sun are you have to wear your all whites? Alright,
we moved on Minnesota plane the Jets the Vikings on
the road are three point favorites right now. Yep. I

(17:29):
have the Vikings coming on top in a close one.
Three Minnesota wins in the models, but it is a
close matchup. Why Minnesota's defense, they just lost my cues
for the season. They put them on I R and
that's a huge one. And by the way, it's just
depth as well. That means like Trey Wayne's is he healthy.

(17:50):
We don't know that yet, so there's a lot of
there's a lot of question marks on that secondary. We
don't know when Everson Griffin we'll be back. We don't.
We don't have a lot of information, but losing my
cues is a big, huge deal. Especially Look that means,
like Robbie interesting. I know that sounds crazy, but these
these receivers who we weren't talking about the beginning of
the season for the Jets, They're gonna have better opportunities

(18:12):
and that could be the difference maker. You saw what
happened to the Vikings when they turned the ball over
a bunch. If New York's defense can get those pressures
and Minnesota's aligned by the way, Riley Reef didn't even
play last week and Dalvin Cook was a late scratch.
So if the Jets defense can cost them early to turnovers,
that could be a huge change in this game. So
the model says keeps it close Vikings do win, but

(18:35):
not a convincing one. I think it's it's just something
that we mentioned in fantasy right, it's important. Um, it's
important to kind of look a little bit deeper than
the stats. On the face of it, right, you know,
Sam Donald has not had a lot of support. You
look at he's throwing touchdown passes to you look at
the offensive line in front of him. Um, but he's

(18:56):
getting better, Like that's what happens to they get better. Exactly.
He's no longer looking for Quincy and Noon want to
check down and every now and then he spread that
ball around this past week. I mean he was to
keep an eye on exactly Minnesota's safety Sinday, who didn't

(19:17):
play last game. Like that's the middle of the field,
especially for because Sam Donald has those tendencies like that
that crossing right you talked about in another game, that
could be that could be a nice little trick here
for against the Vikings if they're missing those pieces on
their secondary. Yeah, no doubt. I just don't you know. Again,
it's a team that's got I think probably I think
they still went big. I think you think, Okay, yeah,

(19:40):
I still I still go by by Minnesota. I go
Minnesota a little bit more in a field goal? What
about it Dalvin cooks back? Well, then obviously you know
that changes a lot. I mean, he's a much more.
That would probably change my model too, exactly. But you know,
you're right, maybe Sam's got enough confidence now we can
throw it around. But I mean it's a Minnesota team
that that, you know, into Philadelphia one there hung with

(20:02):
the Rams for an entire game, and it just doesn't
seem like, okay, if they can do all of that, um,
if they can go into Lambeau and you know, nearly
take out Aaron Rodgers flukey play there by the way,
you know what we're saying. But anyway, it's just Jet secondary.
Jets secondary is underrated. They don't get talked about enough.
So if Minnesota's without Dalvin Cook and the Jet secondary

(20:24):
matches up against two two receivers who are just nasty
and Adam Feeling. I just wrote an article and I
tried to qualify all of the wide receiver play like
off ball and on ball metrics and this whole I
did this whole long studying. I mean, look, Adam, Theland's
ability to adjust. When Kirk Cousins, who's under pressure more
than anyone else, gets pressured, that's game changing. But again,

(20:44):
against the Jets secondary, it is underrated. Try lining up
with Jamal Adams have fun with that. Marcus may enjoy
like that's that's going to be tricky. Claiborne has been terrible.
Rain Johnson. I know he's been banged up a little bit,
but yeah, I mean it's not it's not a bad secondary. Um.
You know, they have to general rate that they have
to They have to generate a pass rush, right, they
can't just rush for and drop you know, seven guys

(21:06):
in coverage. So there's there's a lot going on there.
But like you said, if if Minnesota's is banged up
as they are right now, um, then I guess I
could see it being a little bit tighter. But will
Will Todd bowls? Will so Todd Bowls obviously front of
the podcast because he's appeared on it. Will he wear
a turtleneck? Yes? Or no? I'm gonna go No, I'm
just gonna go like you know, crewneck sweatshirt and a

(21:27):
rain jacket as well. Got it. He's all about that,
like turtlenecks. You know, it's New York and New York,
it's October. It could be called all right, so this
one's tight. You have Buffalo at Indy And I'm assuming
now was this done with Nathan Peterman. Now that we
know Josh Allen isn't playing you know there was a
Nathan Peterman effect. Uh it is currently and the Savage
Savage I believe has also been signed there he's been

(21:49):
signed as well. But as it sits right now, the
Cults are seven and a half point favorite. What do
you got? Yeah, so I have a cool twinning eighteen
which is six um in part. And yes, by the way,
it's all it's a it's a Peterman game script in
this one. Part of the reason here, First of all
Indianapolis wins and sixty eight point seven percent of the simulations,

(22:11):
the Colts have been throwing the ball. They obviously averaged
the most throwing plays by percentage in the league, and
they have been kind of generating this third down percentage
that on offense. That's like it's kind of a lying
number because they're not as like usually if you're if
you lead the league or your top on the league
near the top in converting third downs, you're winning games.

(22:32):
But it hasn't turned into wins because they've been turning
the ball over way too much. So partly for me,
this one, this game is really impacted by turnovers on
both sides. Buffalo can turn it over, Indianapolis can turn
it over. So it just ultimately creates a little bit
of a messier game script and it keeps it to
six as opposed to just a crazy blowout for the Colts.

(22:56):
But I think you know, look to try to minimize
turnover as you run the ball. Run the ball typically
means you eat up more of the clock. It means
things stay a little bit more conservative with a total
game plan. And I don't think you need to see
luck just airing out the ball, right, So minimize turnovers. Yeah,
weird odd when you look at it. Um but and

(23:16):
and a lot of it can be who have your
opponent's been? But I mean Buffalo and Into your tied
for the third most sex in the league right now,
each have nineteen. I mean Indie has top ten. Is
Margau's hunt going to play because he didn't play last game,
So that's a big gi It changes things big time,
so dramatically. So that's point out. By the way, Buffalo
has thrown nine interceptions, the goals have thrown eight interceptions.

(23:39):
Buffalo number one, Indie tied for three. So that's what
we're talking about here, right, It's all about them picks.
We'll see. All right, let's let's go to the Rams
at forty nine ers as it stands right now, and
forty is coming off heck of an effort by c. J.
Beathard against what miracle needed. Awesome freaking night. That was

(23:59):
so good. When when he's healthy and he doesn't feel
just any aches or pains, he's a ferrari and he
will go and secondary that he's facing doesn't really want
to stop. That also helps. And by the way, that
Rams secondary struggling right now, I mean really struggling. That's
the one thing about the Rams. They're six and oh,
but they do not have depth. I mean that all

(24:21):
the money on that team is in those twenty two
starters and if if they start to get hit with
the injury, that's the only thing that can bring them down.
If their starters are healthy, they look like the best
team in the league. Uh. If they have a key
believe miss, which he is. Teams are not picking on
Marcus Peters with double moves and he's getting victimized with
those every single game. I mean, my goodness, case keenom,
I think at his second best or his best game

(24:42):
of the year against that Rams defense. But as it
stands right now, they're ten point favorites. So what do
you got either Rams winning two keeping a little closer
than you might imagine, You've got nine and their ten
point favorites right now, Okay, Rams win in seventy nine
point three percent of the simulations, but they don't win

(25:03):
by ten. They do not win by ten in like
nineteen percent, meaning they that if you're thinking about the
other side of that, then it's eight point eight percent. Right.
So ultimately, it's the ability of San Francisco's passing game,
which is c J. Beathard showed us exactly what you
were just mentioning. It's that passing game and the kind
of balance with run game and a run game created

(25:26):
by short passes. Even to Kyle Juice check that keeps
the Niners in this the game planned by Kyle shanahand
he could have they could have won that Green Bay
game very easily when it comes to look at what
happened on that and there you know, in the fourth
quarter he's calling passing for a run play on passing
down and that could have been the difference maker. Right, Like,

(25:47):
I'm not gonna cash as a play calling genius. I'm
not questioning what he's asking, right, But but you you
could have easily gone the other way. Like I don't
know how he made that decision or whatever, but like
you know, when it comes to like eating up the
clock or percentages in that case, I just don't think
that he can't game plan for this secondary. I understand
the pressure situation with Aaron Donald and Donald k Sue

(26:08):
is going to be very different a lot, but but
this the the situation for their old line has been
getting better, so in in my estimations, I don't think
it's going to be this complete blow up. Yeah, I
think the you know, kind of the one thing with
the forty Niners and when you look at their offensive
line is mcglitchey is getting better. They're getting better. Yeah,
it's a little stiff to start the season, but that
left side of the line has been solid. You know,

(26:31):
Lake and Tomlinson is not great, but when he's sandwiched
between Western Richberg and Joe Staley, it's been solid. And
the Weston Richberg very profound effect in that like his
his you know, you have to remember sometimes learning that
Kyle Shannon offense. Offense can take a little bit of time,
and I think as you've seen the whole old line
develop into this. You've seen them also, like they've they've

(26:52):
run interesting things right, like they use a fullback, like
who does that? Right? So ultimately learning the system and
adapting to the system, I think they're really starting to
come into their own with it. So in you're gonna
I just think that they're going to continue to improve.
The one area that that there they are susceptible to
is is passing. So I do think the rams and

(27:13):
you gotta I think Cooper Cup has already been ruled out,
so I just gotta adjust your fantasy lineup accordingly. But
apart from that, it's like, you know, San Francisco is
more solid than the record suggests. It'll be interesting to
see what kind of hit that offense takes without Cup
because he's you know, when you look at it and
you look at third down targets and passing, he's the guy,
you know, he's he's the direction that Jared Goff looks

(27:34):
when the chips are down and things are getting a
little crazy. So you know, though, when I did that
wide receiver, so I've I've tried to like put Josh
Reynolds in there. I did, Actually Josh Reynolds is part
of is included in the thirty win. But the reality
is is that the presence of Todd Gurley and they're
run the same place over and over, they're not running anything.

(27:57):
I mean, yes, it's who's lining up where, but it's
like it's kind of the same plays like a lot,
and the simplicity of that makes it interchangeable. So I
wouldn't be surprised if Josh Reynolds steps up into a role. Right,
I'm not saying he's as good as Cooper cup. I'm
I'm not suggesting that it's Sean McVeigh thing right. You
trust to play caller as much, if not more, than

(28:18):
you trust the personnel they line up in three wide.
It's the old Vin s Lombardi. We're gonna put the
lemon guys, are you We're gonna say, you're gonna tell
what the plays on. You're gonna see who comes out ahead.
And that's what Sean McVeigh does. Right, Hey, here's the
fly sweep. We're gonna give it him. We're gonna give
it the girly. We're gonna play actually throw it down
the field. Good luck guess by the way, Like thirties,
like the biggest difference maker for their team. So it's

(28:39):
it's not something that I don't think the Rams have
to worry about this one. I just don't think it's
going to be ten. All right, let's go to the
Thursday nighter. Okay, alright, Desert duel. This is the one
where he has My goodness, that injury. Port just got
it just like pretty much no a lineman are playing
for the Cardinals, but we don't know that, all right,
So I plugged it in where Pews back. But he's

(29:02):
not a hundred percent healthy and he's got at least
kind of like line. Right, So Cardinals in this one.
I have Denver winning. That's keeping it close, very close.
Denver wins in fifty four point four percent of the simulations. Um,
so this could be an upset game Arizona. Obviously they're
playing at home, which whatever um to me? Like, right, well, look,

(29:27):
it's the number thirty two run defense versus the number
thirty two run offense. And sometimes I wouldn't say, right, Cynthia,
what I get to say? It's the stoppable force versus
the movable object. But you know what, I think I'm
gonna switch it though, because the stoppable force in this
analogy would be David Johnson, right because right, And then

(29:48):
the movable object would be you can push that defensive
line off because they're thirty two as well. So it's
the stoppable force versus the movable object. And I think
advantage the anti cliche is hands I cliche, and I'm
thinking I'm going David Johnson advantage of this one. If
they're going to keep Josh Rosen out of trouble, if
people are going to keep their jobs as offensive coordinators,

(30:09):
and that's what the rumor is right now, you're gonna
take David Johnson, who is a premier back, and you're
going to use them like one. Right if if they
can keep Josh Rosen, who has had some very significant
pressure versus unpressure splits in order to get him in
a situation where he can start passing the ball and
taking advantage of Christian Kirk and Larry Fitzgerald Hall of Famer,

(30:30):
Surefire Hall of Famer, David Johnson needs to work. So
I think like work meeting like it needs to work
for him to earn the first downs and yards that
we would expect from him. So I think that in
this show down, if Arizona is going to pull off
the upset. It's going to be because they get the
run game figured out, and if they have an ass
right now with a lot of injuries still up in

(30:51):
the air, you have them pulling off. No, I'm sorry. Yeah, no,
it's just written right here on No no, no, no.
I have them keeping it really close because I think that.
But Denver is still just a tiny, tiny bit. But
I'm not. I'm not, I'm not. I wouldn't be surprised
if they pulled off the upset. Okay, all right, let's

(31:12):
go to what we like to call Cynthia Stray. Is
you ready for that? I'm super ready you. You moved
to the opposite of the favorite side. Here, we have
New Orleans at Baltimore. As it stands right now, the
Ravens are currently two and a half point favorites, but
you have winning huh And this, by the way, really
fun stat This would be Drew brees Is first win

(31:34):
versus Baltimore, the only team left in his thirty two team.
Just domination of the league, right, I mean, I think
he's like one of three quarters. He would be like
the third quarterback to be able to do that. Pretty cool.
But my model says the Saints. I have New Orleans
winning one percent the simulations, and the biggest reason here

(31:56):
the balance between there the ability to use like a
pass catching back like Alvin Camara alongside mark Ingram and
balanced with who my model from the best wide receiver
is in the league right now, which is Michael Thomas,
who changes the shape of defense is more than any
other wide receiver. So it's gonna be Drew Brees connection

(32:17):
to that passing game that's going to be overcome or
it's going to be bigger than Baltimore's ability to score points.
I was gonna say, so this is basically a case
of you have, you know, one of the best, you know,
probably top three offense in the league. You have the
best defense in the league, points per game, game, yards
per game, almost rush yards per game. I think their

(32:38):
second in rush yards per game, and you're just you're
taking I mean, because this this I scoring game you
got projected here between the Ravens and the Saints. And
I guess what my takeaway from that is, um that
you're not as impressed by the Baltimore defense as the
numbers say you should be because they beat the Browns

(32:59):
or they lost to the Browns, well, Denine, they shut
out the Titans, and they absolutely hammered the Bills, and
that is what has adjusted that number because they allowed
thirty four points to a pretty darn good Bengals offense. UM,
the space the ability to change space for from the
Saints offense. In terms of the Baltimore defense is more

(33:20):
like Cincinnati, more like some of these other teams than
it was the ones like the you know, like the Bills,
or like the Titans. So if you look at this
sort of dopplegang or like Who's more like who? New
Orleans is more like those high octane offenses that they
didn't hold teams to fifteen point four points per game too,
then Baltimore's defense you want do you see? Do you Yeah?

(33:43):
So that's the doppleganger there, which, Hey, I got no problem.
You want to take offense over defense works for me.
I guess you know this is this is where I
play the UM. I guess the obvious card, right man?
You know, Drew Brees, There's a reason why I'd beat
Baltimore because you get them out of that home, you
get him in the elements and he's about what the
guy what about what? About do you factor factor in

(34:06):
in your mental factoring? Does that factor in the fact
that the Saints are coming off there by? I mean,
for me, I just think the Saints are a better team,
you know. I mean that's I just figured I would
offer that up because that's what people are going to
push back with. They say, he's not on the fast track.
They're not in the Dome. This is a pretty darn
good Ravens and it's absolutely good when the a f
C North, I do think they're the best team in

(34:26):
the f C North. You can North and lose to
this and to the st exactly, I'm with you. So
I'm with you. I'll take the I'll take the Saints,
all right. Dallas at Washington, Dallas coming off that big win,
absolutely hammering the Jaguars um and continuing their misery, and Washington,
by the way, coming off the big upset as well.
And as it stands right now, the Redskins are currently

(34:47):
favored by one and a half. Yeah, Model likes the
Cowboys to win. Like I referred to its Model likes.
It's not mine anymore. It's just Model. It's adapted, it's
it thinks for itself. Now, the Cowboys win, Dallas wins
and fifty two of the simulations. That's convincing, not at all.
But I do think that Washington's number four pressure rate,

(35:11):
and they're from their defensive front, is going to impact Dak. However,
I think Ezekiel Elliott's ability to keep defenses honest, who
are good at that pressure, that's going to change how
the pressure is felt by Dak, how the pressure happens
to really impact DA's ability to pass. So I do

(35:34):
think that Zeek here is kind of the antidote to
the pressure Washington's bringing. Here's what I'll tell you, and
this is why I don't have a model to lean on.
I got nothing. I have guessed wrong on the Redskins.
I think every single Yeah, they have been really different
teams like significant and also like try to pass on Dallas,

(35:55):
like try see what happens. Like their defense is playing
against the past, especially like very well. So maybe, like
you know, Adrian Peterson to do some damages in this,
but I don't, I don't know. I don't. I don't
think that that's uh, that's I mean, he's fantasy playable,
but that's not a passing on Dallas seems to be
a bad value proposition this season. I guess here's here's

(36:16):
the one thing I'll say about the Redskins, right because
when and this is something we talked about at the
start of the season when we were projecting who would
be division winners, who might be a wild card, I said,
you know, you look at the the offensive line and
it's pretty darn good, right, And it's like, okay, if
you can keep Alex Smith up, right, he is a
guy that doesn't turn the ball over and can lead
an offense, he can get an offense. Well, then you

(36:37):
know we're like, all right, well, maybe maybe it was
Jim Harbor, Andy Reid. I mean, that's really what his
success came down to. And he is just he's a jag,
you know, he's just a guy, and he was a
product of great play callers. But then I kind of
dig a little deeper, and I say, okay, if I
take that Colt's loss out, if I just remove that
and whatever was going on with that team that day,
it was just a bad day. And they're now four

(36:59):
and one and their only loss is getting just housed
by a Saints team that was on fire that afternoon
in the Dome in New Orleans. We can get on
top of you every now and then, then maybe we're like,
it's a pretty good Washington team, Washing good Washington team.
So I'm not I think I think Washington. Look, it's
a fifty two point three percent win in my model.
It's not like it's this huge thing, right that Washington

(37:23):
is a good team. Alex Smith's ability to create yards
with his feet is super underrated. People don't talk about
his mobility enough. He's been more mobile than Marcus Mariota
this season by far. So, like you know, we used
to talk about him with those extra yards, So Alex
Smith can change the Alex Smith's a good pastor. I've
never I've never said any of that other stuff. I've
I've stayed on the side of we're gonna see Alex

(37:44):
Smith pastiep. We're going to see it, even even when
it hadn't happened yet. But now I do think, Look,
it's a one point victory and a fifty two point
three when it's it's not convincing, right, I think I
would again. I just don't want to take them, take
them all right, I'll take the Reds again. Perfect, All right,
Let's go to Cleveland at Tampa Bay Browns going to

(38:06):
get some hate if you want to say exposed or
how you want to describe what happened to them against
the Chargers. But it was certainly at a character from
what we've seen from them over the rest of the season.
I don't think that's exposed as much as it is
like Baker looked like a rookie, you know, like like
there were he did some good things, he did some
bad like that doesn't I don't know. I I understand
that it was a big win, but there were some

(38:29):
it wasn't as bad. I don't think, you know, if
you're gonna take that Washington win again or loss against
the Saints and you're going to characterize it like that,
like maybe take like the Chargers just crushing them and
think about it like that, I don't know, maybe the
same thing. I mean, it's just real quick before you know,
right now Tampa's favored by three, it's in Tampa. Here's
what I take away. I watched you know, the game

(38:49):
pass film um of the Browns versus the Ravens, and
one of the things that stood out to me in
that game was, man, just Baker looked a lot more
uncomfortable under pressure than he's kind have been described as looking.
He got happy feet, he has passes. His accuracy dipped
dramatically um when he was under pressure, and that's not
what the narrative was, and I hate using that word,

(39:10):
but that's just the case. Right. So he comes out
in the opening drive and he's moving the ball right,
Joku here, Ratley there goes for a run, turns his
ankle and that was a big part of this where
he wasn't his mobile. But after that, Gus Bradley just
started throwing five and six guys, which he normally does
not do. He normally rushes for keeps seven in coverage.

(39:31):
But once he filled those lanes, it looked like Parker
like like Baker couldn't see, like he could not see
the lanes because he's not the tallest guy. And from
that point on it was almost like an Aha moment
for Gus, and he just started throwing guys at him.
And by the end of it, you've got two interceptions,
you got five sacks, could have had a lot more,
and the game was over by the middle of the

(39:53):
third quarter. So I guess to me, first spinning it
forward to Tampa, my question would be who on Tampa's
team is going to that's a great point. He's going
to cause that much disruption for Baker, right, not gonna happen, right,
So that's part of why the model says brown. Um.

(40:13):
The Browns win in fifty five point two percent of
the simulations. And I understand nobody in Tampa likes when
I say that they're not going to win. I get it.
They're kind of maybe like maybe top three meanest fan group.
But that's okay whatever. They're right right. The team is
allowing on the season thirty five game, but that's not

(40:37):
that's not fun when you're tweeting it. Someone to be
reminded of that. Anyways, it's their secondary. Um. If you
don't think Baker Mayfield can pick off a secondary, um,
go watch some film on him. You know, maybe not
necessarily the Chargers game, but I think that advantage that
he's fully playable in fantasy for me even actually both
quarterbacks in this one are um. But ultimately I think

(40:58):
this is a higher scoring game, decently high. It's kind
of a weird football score, but that's where it ended up. Um,
And I do you want to remember remind you one
I've already seen that. The linebacker who I went from
Cleveland's defense, Joe Shobert, pro bowler, great like just great
to watch and great to track. If you want to
see what linebackers are supposed to be doing, He's not playing.

(41:19):
So when you think about who on Tampa Bay to
target Chris Godwin, there you go. That's kind of And
I would say the one big thing that that I
would lean on Cleveland. Why I would lean Cleveland's direction
is Tampa doesn't have a strong running game. The Chargers,
you didn't believe that pass it turns out. It turns out,

(41:41):
I mean the Chargers just ran right at him. Got
Basically Miles Garrett would dip his shoulder and Russell Locum
would just shove him up the field and Gordon would
run right by him. And that's why you had two
hundred forty six your heart's rushing between Melvin Gordon, Austin
acworn by the way forty one on four carries for
Keenan Allen and he could have had sixty or it
not for a holding penalty on the other side. So

(42:02):
they really gashed him in the run game. And I
just don't know if Tampa has that and they can
try to neutralize that past rushing those fifteen turnovers created
by it. Um. All right, so you have the Browns,
and that would be a team that is not selected
to not only what's that place called when they when
they play in their home thing, they're they're the what pound?
They are the dog pound? Okay, I just wanted to

(42:25):
make sure. I do want to remind all of our
listeners that we use something called g Suite. It is
Google Cloud. It is cloud based productivity tools. It includes Gmail,
Google Docs, slide sheets, and drive. As we are doing
this podcast right now, we are on a Google doc
that we are editing in the moment because I'm too
dumb to understands uh, to understand Cynthia's math models. So

(42:46):
she kind of spells it out in elementary math for me,
rudimentary math, and I can consume it in the moment.
And every now and then our producer, Sean Shoppy will
get in there and start moving things around and really
upset me. Um, But hey, that what you can do
with Google Cloud and Suite. That's what he does. And
he's the producer and he's got to dictate terms and

(43:06):
move the show and I get it because we would
sit here and talk for three hours if it weren't
for him, and you guys would be awfully upset listening
and gals would be awfully upset listening because we would
never get around to this stuff that you want to
hear about. But the tools are cloud based, so your
whole team, as we just mentioned, like our team can
access the same document, work on the same page at
the same time we do it. We recommend it highly

(43:27):
u it helps our podcast run smoothly, even though I
try to screw it all up. Make it with g
Suite by Google Cloud. If you want to find out
more and you've never tried to visit g sweet dot com.
Um Before we get to um our totally tempting feature, Cynthia,
let's do Let's do a little fantasy here and some

(43:47):
fantasy future. Some players that you like this week. These
are people who I think we'll score touchdowns this week
that maybe aren't you know, like the most marquee names right,
a little under the radar touchdown love. I've got Josh
Reynolds at San Francisco of Marvin Jones at Miami. I've
got Chris Godwin, we mentioned him versus Cleveland. I've got
Germaine curse ready, interest Germaine curse. You can probably get

(44:10):
him on any sort of waiver wire. I don't know
if how ow he is. I don't know that stuff,
but I do know right and Frank Gore there, you know,
Frank Gore. That's how we end it. That's how we
end the fantasy futures with the past. Now we go
to totally tempting and these are games that you're not

(44:32):
really comfortable with. Oh, we've got we've got who wins.
But but we care more about kind of the right.
Are you the Golden State Warriors? It's basketball day. We
gotta get a good analogy in here. Are you the
Golden State Warriors? Or are you last year san Antonio Spurst?
We don't know. We're about to find that out though. Okay, well,
let's get going because this is what you teased at
the top. Houston at Jacksonville. Both teams struggling mightily, particularly

(44:59):
at the quarterback. Jacksonville wins twenty at home. Jacksonville wins
in sixty four point five percent of the models, and
they win big in almost sixty percent of the models.
Points points points. I'm a big fan of really looking
to see what happens when each quarterbacks under pressure. And

(45:20):
by the way, Watson's been under pressure third most since
entering the league last season, and he's thrown the second
most interceptions that's nine. If you're keeping track, where do
you target Jacksonville. You target them at their linebackers. That's
what we've seen in these two big wins in the
past two weeks. I think there will be more points scored.
I think DeAndre Hopkins could have multiple touchdowns in this one.

(45:43):
I do. I told you I spent a lot of
time with the wide receivers and doing this new metric
last weekend. Nobody can turn their hips to come back
and grab an off platform throw, meaning an off target throw,
and turn up field and gain extra yards after the
catch and basically after contact like watching you do. It
was just absolutely amazing and it wants you to be

(46:04):
mindful of One thing. Is Dante Foreman coming back. I
haven't heard anything yet, but if he is, that's a
good fantasy pickup for you. But I think Jacksonville Blake
Bortles get right game. I don't know who's playing running
back at that for that position, but I have the
running back position Um being a little bit more solid
in this one in terms of, you know, helping solidify
the win. Okay, Um, I can't push back. I don't

(46:26):
know what to make it look. I've done a lot
of I don't knows on this podcast. But we've got
three teams at three and three. Uh. The Texans lose
their first three, they win the next three. Not all
that impressively, right, They eke one out against the Colts,
they eke one out against the Cobboys, and then they
eke one out against the Bills, UM, none of which
were all that impressive. Meanwhile, the Jacks kind of had

(46:49):
their moment to start the season, looked like a buzz
saw with that big victory over the Patriots. And I
think one thing to remember is in division, the Titans
just have their number. I hate saying that they do.
I mean every single year if you look at the
schedule in the game logs, the Titans get them UM
for whatever reason. So that was just a weird nine six.
But then just the way that they've been outscored, you know,
doubled up and then something I think what's seventy two

(47:12):
to fifteen or seventeen seventy to twenty these last two weeks.
It just kind of makes you wonder. And then this
is the thing. This is this is not the math portion.
I'll just wrap with this real quick. This is the
problem with having so many outgoing alpha's on one side
of the ball, um, because when things get bad, guys

(47:32):
start chirping. And when guys start chirping, talk about no
one on Jacksonville's defense chirch exactly. So I think that's
that's something you've got to be careful of when it's
not And granted that Chief's game was Blake Bortles just
a hot mess of throwing no look passes that are
bouncing off dudes heads and going for interceptions and off Yeah,
exactly right, um, but then to also get housed by

(47:57):
the Cowboys. And by the way, Jalen Ramsey is the
injury report with any I think, so be careful just
watch this one. But okay, but you're saying is points
And by the way, someday we'll talk about I do,
and someday we'll talk about how Jacksonville's defense and like
the impact of turnovers and working on that for like later.

(48:17):
But it's really interesting because they're not getting as many
interceptions this season, and that's changing their ability to score points.
So when their offense doesn't work out, they're they're kind
of like, you know, unable to catch up if they
get behind because last season their defense was scoring the
points and that's not a sustainable model for earning wins. Okay,
let's go to uh, since at Kansas City, Yeah, so

(48:37):
since at Kansas City super weird? What are you doing here,
c swin? That's not weird, right, that's not Kansas City
wins in sixty one percent of the simulations. But I
think because we've seen Patrick Mahomes just point prime time

(48:58):
on Sunday Night, three points, right, So I think people
have gotten a little bit like they think they're going
to see eighty three points in every single game. I
think they're gonna see six hundred points at whatever, and
realistically they think this is more normal football score Chiefs
win more normal. It's still like a really like not fireworks.
Even though the Cincinnati I still think that's why the

(49:21):
City offense has been great, the Kansas City defense has
been bad. I don't know what justin Houston situation is,
by the way, and but the Cincinnati secondary hasn't been
very good either there. That's what I'm saying. That's why
I'm saying it's crazy that you think maybe this is
a lower scoring game. I think it's a more football score.
I didn't think it's a it's not like if you,
I mean, what points and still it's Hunt versus Joe

(49:42):
Mixon game and you can choose some clock. I think
it's about I just it. Look, I just have the
way to earn like the models, the model. The Patriots game,
they didn't punt. The Patriots didn't punt. That's not normal. Pull.
You're like, I understand that you have to keep up

(50:03):
with the Chiefs. It's insane, but that's not a normal
thing to happen. It's not. But I also think that
defense is bad, Like I think that defense is really
really bad, like historically bad. Um And combined with the
ability of Pat mahomes and and diary kill to go
on to play fifty second scoring drives, the guys are

(50:23):
gassed and they're like, really, we gotta go again? Can
you not help us out just a little bit? Um?
But hey, it's the model, and I trust the models.
Lower scoring, right, still a high score, still gonna be
a great Sunday night activity to do with your friends
and family, but not going to be insane. Okay, big

(50:44):
news today. We're doing this on a Tuesday because I
gotta go to London, so my apologies, but pay attention
to Cynthia's Twitter feed at in order to get all
the updates on her score, because we got a big
one today. No more Davante Freeman for the foreseeable future,
perhaps until the end of the season, as they put
them on I R today, So it is Edo and
Tevin that will be doing any damage on the ground.

(51:05):
You have the Giants and the Falcons on Monday Night football.
What do you got? I have the Falcons winning thirty
two twenty two Atlanta wins and seventy two point seven
percent of the simulations. But I don't think in in
part because look, we haven't seen the Giants offense come together.
We haven't seen this high scoring Giants potential. We've seen

(51:28):
se Kwon Barkley be pretty good, very good, exceptional, but
we haven't seen them be able to really take advantage
of where Atlanta is most vulnerable, which is in their
secondary I do have Odell Beckham Jr. Scoring a touchdown,
but I think it's a more conservative game script. Overall,
I don't think they actually think it's kind of in
terms of planning purposes with Devonte Freeman now and I
are there at least can plan their fifty three man

(51:50):
roster and kind of maybe fill some holes where they're
missing some pieces and as opposed to holding that spot
kind of anticipating whether he will or won't play. So
I think overall that's it's it's a win for a
team if he's going to keep being this game time decision.
But I think the Falcons win big, And I think
it's really based on the fact that the Falcons offense
and their offensive diversity with Tevin with Edo, with you know,

(52:12):
Tevin Coleman, remember that song you have to remember where
in the beginning of Whispers, he's like, den I love you,
Do you remember what that is? I'll have to play
it for you and fantasy I'm not cool enough. It's
like an old it's like a nineties it's like a
nineties R and B or hip hop. So anyways, um,
but I think the offensive diversity just outmatches Tevin Campbell.
It is it's Tevin Campbell. I have to play those

(52:35):
is like break it down, going nope. Okay. I do
want to point out you do have it as a
lower scoring game. But as it stands right now, Atlanta
is favored by five and a half and you haven't
winning by eight. It's pretty healthy. It's a healthy margin
of margin there. I think it's a pretty solid win.
I just don't think there's a ton of and you
have them winning in seventy two, so that's a pretty model.

(52:58):
Likes him. I don't know what you got against I
don't know anything against them. I just don't think it's
going to be I don't think that the Giants are
gonna be able to keep up with it. I don't.
I just don't think the Giants are going to do
their part to make it that offensive juggernaut that we've seen.
By the way, do you know something insane? Do you
how many points were pacing the league with this any
sort of record this season? I was beyond I'm just

(53:22):
like the number of receiving and I guess passing touchdowns,
the number of total points. I'm pulling up the exact
number for you right now because I don't want it
to get wrong. I put it in my man, we
have six teams that are averaging nine points or more
per game. I mean, that's that's over four touchdowns per
game they are averaging this season. Okay, you're ready. Through

(53:43):
weeks six, teams have scored four thousand, four hundred and
eighty nine total points at this point in the highest
next highest scoring season. Fifty crush there, crushing it. We
are crushing it. And part of it's the market we're getting.
All these overtime games, We're having, all these things happen
where you're it's going to obviously like make it so

(54:05):
there's more points, right, because there's more points that there's
extra football played typically, but it's all these passing touchdowns
so far, and by the way, that's ahead of the pace.
And that's just a fun trivia staff for your friends.
But wow, I mean, do you do you feel comfortable
doing confidence in dex today? Hell? Yeah, we'll figure it out.

(54:29):
Let's do it. What do you got? All right? So
for right now on Tuesday, I really really really like
I'm gonna hammer it again. I think Jacksonville think it
would be more offense in the Jacksonville Houston game than
we probably thought we would be bargaining for. I like
that one A ton I think that there's a big
win for your Chargers. I'm really confident in that one.

(54:53):
And I'm very confident that when you let's see when
we when we're doing this pod and I'm trying to
stay away from anything that has any sort of um,
any sort of injury potential, I'm pretty I'm pretty much
in love with the fact that the Browns, the Browns,

(55:13):
We'll go to Tampa Bay and get a win and
get a win. No Tampa is favored in that came. Okay,
even though that's a big one, especially if you think
about like you know, I think the Browns, the Browns
will they'll keep it close or they'll outright win. That's
that's what I think is can happen. Big win for
the Chargers. Chargers big you would think in the Jaguar

(55:34):
uh Texan game, and you have the Browns in an
upset going down to Tampa and getting a victory, and
your Tevin Campbell song is called Yep, it's a great sign.
Oh no, it's good with plates Bro. I don't think
Fabis will like it, but whatever, whatever, good whatever with him.
All Right, everybody, we thank you so much on our apologies.

(55:55):
If things are off a little bit this week, but
I gotta across the pond there and go to London
for this contest between the Chargers and the Titans. Will
be back on our regular schedule next week. Uh. In
a big thank you to Cynthia because she was up
till about four in the morning trying to get all
these numbers to crank out without enough data to pump
into their unless she stayed up until four in the morning.
So she gets the big gold medal, the trophy, the ribbon.

(56:17):
Nobody has our jobs, Matt money Smith. I'm for one week.
No I have to I have one week of doing
anything like you like. That's amazing whatever I'm in awe. Hey,
three weddings, three colleges. That's what you get it to. Huh.
The old man's gotta work. That's the way it works,
all right. Well, thank you for downloading, streaming, listening, sharing,

(56:39):
revealing all the things you do. We certainly appreciated Week
seven game there any money there, you have it all.
And remember if you don't do anything else that you
take nothing else away and you're still listening. Get to
Cynthia's Twitter feed before those games. Uh, just because injuries
will change her model could change the outcome. Even winners
um could change the final. Yeah, so stand on top
of that at free Land. A big thank you Sean Shoppy,

(57:01):
our producer, even though he screws with our game theory
and money Google doc for the g suite, We'll let
it slide again. This only can for his inability to
do simple thing. I appreciate him to Thanks everybody. We'll
be back next week