Game Theory and Money: Week 8 Predictions

"This just feels like an Aaron Rodgers game, right? Oh you're the new fangled offense? Oh you're the new kids, you think you're pretty special huh? Well let me show you what the greatest QB in the history of the game can do."

So do Cynthia Frelund's 10-thousand simulations of Packers-Rams agree? Go to the 37:20 mark and find out that along with the rest of the Week 8 predictions in this week's Game Theory and Money podcasts.

Redskins-Giants (3:57). Jets-Bears (6:54). Buccaneers-Bengals (10:10). Colts-Raiders (13:30). Dolphins-Texans (19:20). Ravens-Panthers (23:50). Jaguars-Eagles (28:10). Broncos-Chiefs (32:40). Packers-Rams (37:20). Patriots-Bills (39:30). HOW OFTEN DO TIES HAPPEN? (43:00). Browns-Steelers (43:55). Seahawks-Lions (47:05). FANTASY FUTIRES (52:00). 49ers-Cardinals (52:30). Saints-Vikings (53:30). CONFIDENCE PICKS (54:45)

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
Welcome to Game Theory and Money Week eight, well other squads,
four of them to be exact, round a bye. We
are not we do not take byes on the Game
Theory and Money podcast. We welcome you to this presentation
and a big thank you to all of you who
have spread the word via social media, who continue to
download the podcast, subscribe to it via iTunes or whatever
your favorite streaming source may be. And for those of
you that are saints, well you're all saints just for listening,

(00:23):
but thank you for leaving reviews because that does help
grow the podcast. I am here, Matt money Smith, and
I'm just kind of along for the ride like the
rest of you, because it's Cynthia's big brain that leads
the charge. Here, the predictive analytics expert at NFL Network
and NFL dot Com is here to guide us through
the games and why they will turn out the way
her fancy Monty Carlo method model says they will. Cynthia,

(00:46):
do you want to recap week seven or would you
like me to? Um? You can recap it, but I
want to say thank you again for making last week happen.
And I can't even believe that you're like awaken alive
doing this after going all the way over to London,
coming all the way back, hosting ten billion shows, and
you can fact check that number. So that is when
my models fit out. I will simply see we can

(01:08):
get right to it, because most podcasts start with people
just kicking around whatever, some grabass. But I will cap
it by saying, go to London, those of you. If
you're big NFL fans, you don't have to go to
London to go to a game, but if you want
to make that a centerpiece and spend a week there
and go see a soccer match on Saturday like I did. Man,
you beat Chelsea and then go to the NFL game,
It is an awesome. Man, you beat Chelsea is like

(01:29):
seeing the Dodgers play the Yankees like it's it's ridiculous.
The match was ridiculous too. So anytime you know Marino
wants to get into a fist fight with an assistant,
I'll take it, all right, So let's get it going
you Well, first thing, gonna give you my a quick pick,
and then well and then yes, which screw up the tea. Alright, alright,
so I think that in the Queen City it's going

(01:50):
to be thirty three. I'm not telling you who when
that's Tampa Bay at Cincinnati, that's the Queen City. In
case you want to have a feeling, I know who
you're going to say when listen you're well, you're absolutely
gonna hear later in a show. But thirty to twenty
three is far fewer points than these two teams offenses
might suggest, so a more manageable game. In what did
we say about the NFL when we're saying that a

(02:11):
thirty game is a lot less than what certain folks
think it's gonna be. Yea, that's be a real slog
I don't know if you want to check in with
that one. If you like offense, that's that's all we
got here, all right? You were nine in four last week.
You're seventy and thirty six on the year. The confidence
picks need a little bit of work, though, And that
may be my fault because I wait until the end
and I think you're just you want to get away

(02:32):
from me. You're like just getting me out of this minute. No,
we made it on Tuesday, and something's changed to I'm
gonna stick up for myself here. We made it on Tuesday.
We gotta get at least and I said, the injury
reports on Wednesday are really big deal. But you know what,
I'm gonna wear it. I went to for three. It's
totally fine. But I'm going to tell you, you know,
that's why you gotta keep paying attention for the rest
of the week at see Freeland. Make sure you follow

(02:53):
that that way. With all the injuries, you will see
Cynthia will update her model because she will plug in
different variables and that will spit out some different results
typically some big games. This week. Uh, the Saints Vikings
rematch is ahead. It's a pick them right now. We'll
get to that one a little bit later. And turns
out Cynthia's barkin this week. You got six dogs, it

(03:14):
doesn't matter. Oh, there we go. We got a dodge
sound effects. Wow, and I'm all nervous about just like
Jersey too. I like that. That's I'm gonna say that.
Give me let me get that one more time, Shoppy.
Oh yeah, that's a good sized dog. That's that's like, Uh,

(03:34):
that's retriever. That's that's why we're on her. That's that's good.
We'll take I like a good Roadesian ridge back all
right here we go. These we call freelance face uh,
freelance favorites. These are the favorites that you like this week.
It is pretty simple. I will set it up and
you will give us what your models spit out. And

(03:55):
why right now? Red Skins minus one at Giants. You
like the Redskins, sure do. Model says that the Redskins
win in fifty three point five percent of the simulations,
the most likely score being twenty three to one, and
the Redskins win by one in fifty two point five
percent of the stimulations. That one percent accounts for um

(04:18):
ties and which is actually something interesting this season. But
that's where nice questions, Anthea, you can ask me anything,
um is. Shoppy's still pumping his fist, yes, can you
ask him to pump it right in his own face
for playing that computer sound effect? Alright, the dog is fine, Shoppy,
No more computer sound effect. You want to get a
computer sound effect, you gotta get like a speakin speller

(04:40):
like the ones with like some interesting noise, like something
that was like Sherman's way Back Machine from the Rocky
and bow Winkle show that he had going there. All right,
My apologies for the violence. I threatened upon our producer,
although I threatened him with his own ball, you know what.
Though he's wearing a Boston Red Sox hat though, so
I feel like maybe it's still you know, you're kind
of a Dodgers, you have kind of a Dodgers affiliation.

(05:01):
So I think we are fighting, you know, on this pod.
Them's fighting words, all right. So let's get into it.
Why does Washington win by more than one? Well there,
it's this is a battle of the trenches in this game.
And my model says, with getting rid of snacks, Harris
and Damon Harrison traded earlier today, great run stopper. That's
going to be the difference maker in something where the

(05:22):
Washington's OH line is great. The Giants were good at
stopping the run, and we'll see what happens. But they
don't have snacks, they don't have Eli Apple. There's a
lot of changes on their defense and the tank starting corner.
They traded their starting defensive tackle, Eli Mann. You see
the ball before it even hits his hand, Like he
doesn't even catch the ball, he just punches it in

(05:45):
a direction of a receiver because he wants nothing to
do with the pass rush. That's coming at him. Uh,
that's why he's thirty in the league in sacks. Should
say that their defense is in the league in sacks
and there eight. So he's getting sacked a lot. Looking
across the field at the other sideline and just seeing
you know, old Kirk Cousins over there, whoever it may. Well,
now it's Alex Smith just stretching out like, yeah, it's

(06:05):
pretty good. I mean clean, guys, thanks so much for
keeping me up right. I mean it's a miserable existence
for him this season again. Yeah, I mean, look, there
isn't much you can say. It's gonna be interesting to see,
like Sherman's gonna have a hard rest. It's it's not
even November yet. That's a lot of media criticism to
take so early. But we'll see what happens here. I
do want to say something positive about Adrian Peterson. He's
playing great. Yeah, number five enforced miss tackles in the

(06:28):
run game. Profo buff Focus has that at twenty UM
that ranks number five. That's pretty good. And I want
to talk about the Norman versus Beckham Jr. Really quick,
because this is the one where Josh Norman. This is
where like his penalties get exposed. No corner in the
past two seasons has more penalties that have resulted in
scoring drives for opponent opponents teams than Josh Norman. So

(06:50):
there you go. There's a trivia piece for your friends.
All right, let's move to the Jets at Bears right now,
Bears favored by a touchdown seven um, but you've got
a margin than that we do. The Bears win in
seventy three point three percent the simulations with the most
likely score is eighteen in my model, and the Bears

(07:10):
win by that touchdown or more in sixty two point
two percent of the simulations. Okay, so that's pretty healthy. Yeah,
that's huge, And that's I would say the model likes
the Bears big, if that's what it's spitting out right
the here it is the two young quarterbacks. Who has
the quarterback edge ten interceptions for Donald that's number one
in the NFL most versus True Whisky, who before last

(07:33):
week we didn't see him. He averaged thirty two point
to passes passing attempts per game. Last week we saw fifty.
We're seeing it kind of get on track. When you
have this good of a defense, foundation of the Bears
defense is this good. Plus on top of that, you
have Trabisky really coming to his own That's what drives
this big win. Yeah, you know the interesting about the
Bears is we got excited about him, you know, early

(07:54):
in the season, and it was all driven by the defense. Um. Now,
I know they've lost a couple of games, you know,
the hot start, the lead in the North is is
kind of fell apart. It's the Vikings now that have
taken over and it doesn't look like they're gonna let
go of the air. But the one thing I think
that that I take away is this is a team
that has not had offense for like seven years, um
like consistent offense, and I don't know even have offense

(08:16):
the year that they went to the Super Bowl. That's
what I mean. So you're talking, I mean Color had
a nice season there the year that they lost to
the Packers in the NFC champ whatever, it's You're right,
it's not worth celebrating it. That was a great offense.
That was good, you know, Matt four d agent Color
like it was a nice Brandon Marshal. They kind of
had a little thing going there. But like we've seen
now for for three games in a row that, okay,

(08:36):
you might have something that this you can actually you
know the defense is going to be good. You know
the Patriots, and the Patriots are red hot exactly. So
that's that's what I would take away, is that you
came up a yard short, granted was a hail Mary
pass from tying the Patriots, and Mitch Drubiskie is actually
starting to look like a viable starting quarterback. So and

(08:57):
I got to give you some props for last year.
You were all over Treke Cone before anyone else and
he's just exploded offensively. But you were all over literally.
I know you love literally oversaying literally literally literally since
I just got back literally and literally what was the
first two favorites commentary commentary? I like the pitch quite

(09:21):
a bit. You mind the gap. So last year you
were all about you were saying tree Cone, that's the
guy that's gonna be it, and you're totally right. So
there you some shine fantastic. So and plus you know
Sam's young. For all the people trying to push back,
it's not his fault. It's not his fault. He hasn't
I'm I will think up firstand Donald because I know
coming out of college, everyone's like, oh, he's gonna turnover,

(09:43):
but and then you see the turnovers, who's open, who's
throwing too. He's trying to make something happen, and he's
giving them team the best chance of winning, and they
are winning some games. It's just not fair what he's
having to deal with. The already won more games than
I thought they would all seasons, so it's nothing wrong there.
All right, let's move to Tampa. Oh look we're already
paying off the tease, Cynthia, you said you liked, uh,

(10:05):
not a lot of points? Three only three Tampa? Since
what do we got? Okay, So in this matchup, I
think the Bengals are favored by I think four and
a half points. Here. The Bengals win outright in sixty
four point two percent of the simulations. Yeah, and the
most likely score thirty to twenty three. Just like we
said before. But the Bengals win by more than five

(10:28):
points in fifty nine eight percent of the simulations. I
was a little surprised by that. But here's the good. No,
I think you're gonna probably get into it. Um, I'm
not just because they actually have a defense, you know,
I know you wouldn't guess it because Pat Mahomes carved
him apart. That's weak. But guess what Pat Mahomes and
Andy read everybody apart this season. Um, but you know
the middle of that defense, if you just go tackles

(10:49):
middle linebackers, you know, and even kind of to some
degree out to the defensive backs, it's good. It's a
good group, Tampa. They don't. They just simply don't. Someday
I could do a whole podcast on They're not turnovers
are random. And I'm going to tell you then a
lot of work in this space. And the answer is
that some turnovers are random, but not all turnovers are random.
And defensive pressures, along with press coverage close man coverage,

(11:13):
there are situations where turnovers are more likely in this game.
And the way Jamis Winston plays football, that is a
turnover he's had. You know. Look, Winston himself is average
two point three giveaways per game the season. Five of
his six interceptions when it comes when he holds the
ball for greater than two point five seconds, he has that.
Tampa Bay overall has a minus eleven turnover differential in

(11:34):
the last four games. So if you're telling me that
there aren't more situations then that all turnovers are random.
I'm gonna ask you to explain that to me, because
it's like in the analytics world, there's like random you
mean like Ricochet's offer receiver's hands, So that one's random.
I'll give you that's random. And I think hail Mary's
at the end of games those are random too, But
that that would be completely random. Yeah, well, I don't

(11:57):
know if it is random the right term, or just unforced.
I don't know if unforced. Like look, they're just like
just like their higher probability passes and the shorter ones
and lower probability passes. There are higher probability situations where
like if you're throwing off your back foot and you
have a lot of loft on the ball and it's
not going where your intended receiver is, and and the

(12:18):
defenders are playing in a space that's close to man
coverage or in the space, then you're gonna get it.
You are more likely to turn exactly. So there are
some turnovers are random, hitting off your hand, rick seting
off whatever. Some turnovers you know what, you put yourself
in a crap situation and they and they paid it off.
I get real mad about that. Like, just so you know,
I get real fired up about turnovers. Not a lot

(12:41):
of points, only fifty three points are gonna be so
bored watching it. And by the way, I have to
point out here another big factor in this one, Um
Tampa Bay lost Kwan Alexander. Kwan Alexander was good. So
the run game. That's what really drives this lower point
total is because if you're able to run the ball
more often Joe Mixon for example, then you're going to
be able to slow the clock down. And also Jameis

(13:03):
Winston has past for three fifty yards were more than
four games, one of his past four games one being
from last season. The reason that that's like a record
is because it doesn't happen very often. I think only
three other people have ever done it. So if you're
saying that these low probability things keep happening, like that's
that's why the model projects it to be a lower
scoring game. All right, let's try on the worst team

(13:25):
in the NFL. I got it, the worst team in yeah,
and I just I like I envisioned now After today,
another nugget from John Gruden, who said he wasn't even
sure that Marie Cooper trade was official and Amari Cooper
was practicing with the Cowboys. I just like I envisioned
him eating a giant turkey. Liv me the Monday, gave
me the Monday headline the Monday. What's the Monday headline

(13:46):
for Grood? Yeah? Like, what's what's Gruden sound Sunday night?
Old man picks up rock and talks into it? Think
it's a phone? How's that? How's that for a Gruden headline? Like,
that's just what I envisioned, Like he's trying to have
a conversation into a rock while he eating a turkey
leg That's what's happening in Oakland this year. Um, but
I get it. Look, they're not good. You know, the

(14:07):
Charges are a lot better than they are. The Broncos
are better than they are. The Chiefs obviously are considerably
better than they are. So what's the point Why spin
your wheels If you don't like the team you inherited,
start flipping it. And who's going to have a better
flip job? Is it going to be Oakland or is
gonna be the Giants because it seems like fire sales
city for both or whatever. I I don't trust John

(14:28):
Gruden to draft players, Well, I think that's you know,
I think that's you know, Colton Miller's not good. He
took these huge swings and he took way too many
of them. And look, Colton Miller might be great in
a couple of years, but for someone who had Derek Carr,
who's got to have a clean pocket to have players
like Derwin James and Tremaine Edmonds sitting there to to

(14:49):
use as your first draft pick in your tenure as
kind of their de facto GM. And you go with
a huge swing on a sixties. Didn't you hear his
sound by It's like, what so huge swing on Colton Miller? Right,
Who's who? Everybody said, look at the tape he I mean,
he tried to get Josh Rosen killed. But he's athletically superior.

(15:09):
He's obviously gifted genetically, So okay, big swing, big swing
on arden Key, inconsistent motor, got into trouble off the field,
but made some splash place. Maurice Hurst great player, but
he's got a hard issue. That one's probably the best one.
But because he's actually he's actually played pretty well exactly.
But you see what I'm saying, Like everything. Okay, you
want to take one of those fus. Well, they're moving

(15:30):
to Vegas, and so he's a gambler. Don't you see
how this works, right, they're moving to Vegas. He's just
getting a jump on the Vegas lifestyle. I've spewed too
much garbage. Who wins the game? Cults are favored by
three on the road in Oakland as it stands? Is
that too little? So the Colts win in sixty the stimulations.
I was actually surprised that it wasn't higher. But there's

(15:52):
some randomness of here that I'll explain here. The most
likely score twenty, which is more than three, and that
happened in five point nine ers the of the simulations.
Part of the reason why is we don't know exactly
what I'm still waiting the Coles injuryport. It is kind
of like, well, we'll jack to a play, will he
not play? Like what's the final personnel and matchup situation?

(16:13):
And then there's always a little bit of uncertainty when
you have a lot of changes that for example, if
Indianapolis Defense is playing at half mast and the and
the Raiders pull out a dared cook in the scene,
like sixteen times and it just worked. Like there's some
uncertainty there. The uncertainty is what makes the the first
percentage that like Colts win percentage that one go down.

(16:36):
But I would I would say that, I would say
this could line up is kind of like that, Hey,
let's let's rally exactly. That's what happens. There's there's a
lot of chaos. But I just don't think the players,
like Jon Gruden, I think they're like, what are you doing?
What happened to our team? What? You know? There's there's
leaks that that we don't like our quarterback because he
was crying on the field, Like how how can you

(16:57):
allow this to have turned as dramatic? And you know,
and they love Jack del Rio. Now you can say
what you want about whether or not he was good
at gambling. Huh. I mean they really did. They were like,
because I was at that game when he got fired.
Before the game, Jack del Rio would like to go
to Vegas with us in the off season. Maybe just
show us where the new site is, you know, just
the new site for there. It's all right, so and

(17:19):
plus Andrew Lux playing great and the Colt and Marlin Mack.
Marlon Mack is sick. And by the way, the Colts,
it's all about third downs with them. They ranked number one.
They're tied with Atlanta and Oakland. Yeah, okay, what they
did the third word, but you know what they're tanking.
It'll it'll get worse. Yeah, I mean, if you were
to say, hey, what what is the Oakland defense in

(17:40):
this category? Or guest last because it's chances are I mean,
if you and I don't have the numbers in front
of me, maybe you do, but I'm guessing every single category, points,
rush past, third down, red zone, big play yards per play,
they're either last or in the bottom five, and at
least of them. And we knew that going in. And
I think that's why for just real, I mean, that's
not the point of this podcast, but I would just

(18:01):
say that's why I think some Raider fans and they
think they're gonna win a Super Bowl every year. You know,
to some degree I give him credit. It's like, hey,
we're not good. This. I inherited a roster that is
not good. So I'm just gonna tear it down to
the studs. And now you just got to hope that
he employs people that can scout and he's gonna have
a lot of assets and draft picks and money to

(18:21):
sign free agents, and you hope they can figure it
out because they're going to be in a position to
do great things, to rebuild for two years from its
easy to roll a bus up to the draft of
the combine and like make kids going to buzz and
draw on whiteboards because like Excellenzybral why banana right? Justin Herbert,
I gotta talk to you Lem. You grew up in Eugene.

(18:42):
You're rooting for the Ducks, right, so let's talk about
your your Dan Fouts guy, Marcus Mariota, guy, what kind
of ducks you? Joey Harrington guy, let's talk about it.
I think I get the next Harrington? Or am I
getting what? Am I getting here? Okay, because I'll go Lock.
I don't care, I'll go get him. We'll get Drew
Lock right now. Alright, so let's move on. By the way,

(19:04):
I just want to point out here, the key point
total in this game is fifty and I only have
forty seven points happening, and that comes out of time,
So slower paced could be a pretty boring. Yeah, it's
hard to win fifty nothing. It's not as hard to
win forty seven nothing. That's why I'm terrible. Let's go
Miami at Houston Thursday night football. We got Houston favored
by seven and a half points. Brock Osweiler continues to

(19:28):
man the offense just like Adam Gaze planned it. That's
how it's gonna work out, my man, Brock, I'm gonna
resurrect his career. I'm gonna be called an offensive genius
for making him relevant. It's all coming together, Cynthia, right now,
what he's telling you, It's all coming together my master plan.
What do we got? Houston wins in seventy seven point

(19:53):
three percent of the simulations with a most likely score
of twenty seven eighteen. Houston favored by seven and a half,
and they win by more than seventy seven and a
half points or some more than eight points and sixty
two point three percent of the simulations. We know a
lot more about these. So the reason that have you
ever been less impressed with a team that won four

(20:14):
games in a row, that's such like I like, I can't,
I truly can't believe it. And probably it's because I'm
so upset fantasy wise with what's happening with the Texans
because I drafted a handful of them. I've got Will
Fuller on some teams, Watson on some others, Lamar Miller
on some, the hop on others, and the like. It's
it's the most unimpressive four game win streak I have

(20:34):
ever witnessed in my life. I actually thought you were
talking about the Dolphins first, talking about the Texans in
the last four that they've won, like it's crazy. Well,
the reason that they're winning is because of their defense,
and the reason that they'll win this one. You know
what's funny, it's because of their defense. So the the
interesting part is, like we talked about, like the how

(20:55):
bad the Dolphins are on third down and setting themselves up,
and it's really true. But if you look at their
just a straight third down percentage is not that different
in wins and losses. But if you break it down
to like third and long and they're converting under third
and long attempts, which is very bad, and then you
map it back to like what's causing this, Well, it's
really what happens on first down. If Adam Gays can
get whoever is quarterbacking in this case, Brock to execute

(21:18):
those gadget plays and get jackem Grant. And because Albert
Wilson's gone his that yak was like super important, right
because in wins, awesome, Miami yac in first downs. In
wins they had seven point to two yards per play.
In losses it's four point six. So went from fifth
best to seven. Right, that's a huge discrepancy. And overall

(21:42):
Houston's defense allows only four point six four yards per
playing first down, that's fourth best. There in pressure percentage
which is fifth best. Like, it's just first down is
going to be the key indicator for this game and
the advantage, and that goes heavily towards Houston, especially with
Stavonte Parker playing like he's playing. But like now, the

(22:02):
Dolphins are a mess, They're a mash unit. It's and
in brock Ostwiler is their quarterback against a top ten
defense in the league on the road on Thursday night,
a short week after getting hammered by the Lions. Do
I need to I mean hammered by the Lions, short
week traveling to Houston, and everyone's like, yeah, you know,
but and then then I pause, see I wait, I wait,

(22:23):
here's my rope? It open. Then all of a sudden,
I go and Brock ost wilders their quarterback. Okay, alright,
let's go. Let's I mean it could be like two
revenge narratives, right, like who gets the better revenge Brock
Brock revenge. They gave him a check for thirty million bucks.
Like I heard people like, Hey, this revenge game for
I'm like, for what for giving him thirty million dollars?
That's the revenge? Hey, you know that time he gave

(22:45):
me that check for thirty million and I was terrible
and nearly got all of you fired. Well, I'm coming
to get you. I mean, I wouldn't be surprised that
Bill O'Brien just ran out there in clothesline the guy
instead of shook anyway, I wouldn't be surprised though, By
the way, if you do, if you want to be
contrary in fantasy at all, take Davante Parker, because I
know in that locker room, like so, DeVante Parker's agent
said some crap about Adam being incompetent, and I know

(23:08):
in that locker room they're all like pissed. And the
way Adam usually handled that is to like just like
with Kenyan Drake fumbling on the goal line, and then
he'll give it to the next place. Like, fine, you
want to prove it for me, prove it for me.
So that could be just so you know, if you
want to be real, contrarian and fantasy, do it as well. Right,
it's a theory. Throwing on the ball? Who's throwing Davante
park of the ball? Um, Maybe it's just Cam Grant,
Maybe it's Danie Amondola saying this is what we like

(23:33):
to call as we move on, the points are the point? Now,
you like the favorites, but you're focused on totals because
key point totals are what your model keyed in on,
like all that keying. Yeah, it's a lot of key in.
We've got keys, we got yack, We've got a lot
going on here Baltimore at Carolina. The Ravens are currently

(23:53):
favored by two. Um, what do you have and why
are the points the point? Here? Ravens win in six
of the mulations. The most likely score is twenty six
to twenty three in the majority of the simulations, though,
like seventy point to that point total, it's like way
bigger than you know, forty three point or more in

(24:17):
seventy I've got I've got more than forty three that
key point total in seventy of the simulations. And it's
it's really between two things. It's Baltimore's solid d play.
Kim is not gonna be able to rush like he
normally is and correct, so he's not be able to rush.
He's gonna have to he's gonna have to pass. That's
gonna be Christian McCaffrey. It's gonna be faster pace, faster pace,

(24:40):
higher score. Joe Flacco. They've been improving on offense significantly.
If you don't go look at John Brown's stats, go
look at all of Joe Flacco stats. You love it,
you love it. But it's apart from you here about
do it. And I'll tell you why. Because there are
two really really good defenses. They're both forty three. Isn't crazy, right? No?

(25:03):
Wows hie to me? Like I think this is like
one of those a f C North style games. Um,
And then I just asked, okay, even with Cam hobbled
a little bit, which offense do I trust more? If I?
If I? And I'm not saying that the Panthers defense
is is is exactly even with the with the Ravens,
but it's pretty darn good. And so I think what

(25:25):
I ask is, Okay, if I feel like, if defense
is going to rule the day, which offense do I
want to do? I want to bank on and I'd
rather I think i'd rather go Christian McCaffrey, Greg Olsen,
even though you're departing with me on new wins. So
both things. So you're going both things Panthers and I'm
going Panthers, which means it'll be high scoring and Ravens

(25:46):
for those Well, just something to notice that Panther's average
the most passing on first down per game, and Newton
on short passing fourth highest passer rating one oh five
point six. So those ten. But you're right about the
Christian every So there's there's some there's some there's some
statistics to back you up. But my model favors Baltimore's
offense and Baltimore's defense in this matchup. Okay, that works,

(26:10):
totally works, all right, from the points or the point
to all right, Shoppy, let's go the dogs. Oh my goodness,
I mean I feel like Shoppy walked around his neighborhood
and just started recording different dogs I mean, put that
dog out of its misery. Listen to that thing, Skeeter

(26:31):
the wondered dog. You're right about that. He's got a
proud bark. Let me here. Oh yeah, that's right. Come
in here and try to break into my afford fusion
bunch of balls. All right, he will. That's where he's
trying to go. The dogs, Cynthia, these are games that

(26:51):
you like, the underdogs along with points, lots of dogs
in uh this week you got five is a matter
of fact, and we even include where's that where's that
miserable dog you just had a second ago shopping you
hear that thing? Yeah, that's the stray. Looks like the
straight a wind you like the straight a win. Not
it's just a miserable dog, you know, like it's master's

(27:13):
gone for the day and it's like chained up in
the backyard. It's like, come on, terrible, I can't even think.
I only know dogs that are like extremely spoiled, like
sleep in bed with you, Like I only know dogs
like that. That's not okay. It's a dog, Cynthia. You hey,
my house, all right, dog, this is my house. I'm
gonna make it. I'm gonna make a coffee table book.
Just one little side here. I'm gonna make a coffee

(27:35):
table book. So I live in I live in like
a really nice part on the beach, because I mean
I have roommates were I'm not we just you know,
I'm not saying that beach. Yeah right, And I'm gonna
walk along the like the boardwalk there and take pictures
of all the dogs and create a coffee table book
that's just called dogs with Better Lives than Us. And
it's that's just it. It's a little wordy. It's perfect.
I think it's a little wordy. I think we can

(27:56):
we can, we can make you from that. I mean,
we need a little more alliteration to then will be
approved exactly. Anyways, al right, back to the I'm working
on it. I'm gonna I'm gonna work on this ie
the spit ball in my brain. While you talk about
the London contest, Philadelphia Jackson, we'll talk about a great
game that got across the pond there serious participating in
the ANFC championship in the Super Bowl winner. Hey, now
what do we got? Eagles are favored by three and

(28:20):
the Eagles win in sixty nine percent of the simulations.
But the most likely score that man, did something happen
with your model and you forgot about Blake Bortle's fumbles
or Leonard four Nett Hamstring Carlos plus Carlos Hide. Yeah,
just man, the Jacks look bad right now. Listen my model.

(28:42):
My model favors the Jaggers more for a number of reasons. One,
their defense is still elie. Their defense is still top four,
top five in the league. And realistically speaking, the differences
points scored in the first quarter. If Carlos Hide can
come in and give them and by the way, Derek
Barnett is out, so that's that's a problem for Philadelphia

(29:05):
if the if the Jacks can come in and establish
a lead earlier. So last season they scored like the
fifth most points in the first quarter, so they were
playing from a head, which played to the strength of
their offense. They could run the ball, and then it
played to the strength of their defense, which is forcing
opponents to pass. And they're way better and obvious passing
downs than they are on potential run or passed downs.

(29:25):
So if teams can get established and be bounced against them,
then it stinks for the Jacks. But if they get
into those obvious passing situations, then it's going to be
better for them because we haven't seen them create turnovers.
And the reason for that is because they've been playing
kind of this not the same sort of press coverage
that you've seen Jalen Ramsey play. Yes, there have been
getting elite defensive pressure, but their linebackers and there in

(29:48):
their slot corner have been susceptible to getting burned because
they're not playing kind of their ball. They're playing reactionary.
So here's we're all pushed back disagree on. The model
is you can have a great defense in elite defense
in the league, but when your offense is I don't
know what they're ranked, it's got to be worse or

(30:09):
close to worse. After the last few years, I think
that they're one of giving the ball up. They're they're
one of like two teams they're either let's just say
they're one of the bottom three. There's nothing you can do,
and then next thing you know, you're playing from two
scores down and the opposing defense is pinning their ears
back and getting after it because you can no longer
operate your offense in the manner that you want to

(30:29):
operate it, and you've got a quarterback that's prone to
turn the ball over when when the chips get or
when when this situation, when the game script changes. So
I think that's I still have That's where I don't
disagree with you and how good the defense still is.
But they can't they can't play offense. But I think
if we see Carlos Hide do what I think what
Leonard Fournette could do, well, it doesn't even need to

(30:51):
be as much as like Leonard Fournette was very special
and also his usage was ridiculous, right, Like the reliance
on him was crazy. But if they get Carlos Hide
to start to do what Leonard four Nett did and
net provide at least some consistency in the run game
and slow things down a little bit, that's going to
be a huge difference maker. Because we did see remember

(31:12):
that Patriots game and it was a long time ago. Whatever.
They can figure it out once they get going, but
they need it's gonna be that first quarter that's gonna
set the tone for everything. And they do think if
they get Carlos Hide going that that's going to be
a huge difference maker in this one. Okay, I think
it's it comes down to do you believe you know,
do you have recency bias or not. If you do,
then you don't buy the Jacks. If you don't, And

(31:34):
you think back, you just alluded to the game against
New England and the game, um, who do they? Oh yeah,
the Jet the Chiants weren't that great, but the Patriots
game was. I think down. I mean, that's that's what
I guess you. You feel like, all right, look, my
model always gave them more points because in reality, look,
without the turnovers on their defense, it makes things like

(31:54):
the whole thing is kind of it's like this self
fulfilling bad prophecy, right, like this catch twenty two that
keeps getting worse. If they don't get turnovers on defense,
they get worse field position. Blake Worlds is throwing more often,
which is there. It placed all they're not strengths. If
they can figure it out in that first quarter and
establish a run game, they can start playing to their
strengths again. And they do have the capacity. It's not
like they're that different from last season. They're very similar

(32:15):
to last season, just in Blake Bortles is not elite.
But so it's like you've got you've gotta set him
up to succeed schematically. It's good for us to disagree.
From the time of the time, we got it on too.
Now I get it on too. I like the Panthers,
and I got a few points, and I like the Eagles.
And it's not like who am I to puff my

(32:36):
chest out about the Eagles? There three and four as well,
It's not like they've been playing great all right. Let's go,
uh Denver at Kansas City. The Chiefs are favored by
ten against a team that, in Denver should have beat him.
Case Keenum throws just an average pass. If he throws
a not awful pass to Mary's Thomas, they win the game. Um,
yet the Chiefs are you know, they're favored by ten.

(32:57):
Ten's aggressive. So the Chiefs win big In e any
two point seven percent of my simulations, the most likely
score thirty one. So that is not ten points and
the biggest reason to keep it to eight instead of ten.
I just did that math in my head and pressure ride.
Good job as Denver's ability to pressure Mahomes. By the way,
that math segment we did yesterday on Fantasy Live like

(33:17):
made me so happy. Pretty well, math still still trying
to figure it out. All right, pressure good um in
the game. When Week four Mahomes average six point eight
yards per attempt and the pressure worked, then right, We've
seen Mahomes get rid of not seemed to not even
care shake off pressure in every game this season. By

(33:39):
the way, his average yards per attempt on the season
is eight point nine yards per attempt, So the pressure
kind of got to him in that game six point eight.
And I think that really when you see when remember
Denver playing last Thursday night against Arizona Day, just their
rush defense looked awesome because they were turning the ball
over so many times, but against the run they ranked
last ahead of that game, so before that game they

(34:01):
were worse against the run. So I think that this
will slow the pace down and make it more of
like the Kareem Hunt, a nice like. That's why I
don't think it gets so blown out of proportion, because
you don't need those these fast like touchdowns at the
end of games, just huge swings. I guess my issue
is just I'm not a big case Kingdom guy thinking
about case trying to acquit himself. Uh in that nasty environment,

(34:24):
that arrowhead, it's one of my favorite road environments anywhere. Man,
it is a tough place to play, and Case has
just been average for the most part. Um this season.
You know, he's thrown interceptions and I don't know if
he threw in last week. I wasn't paying attention because
it was a blowout, but um or they had to
buy I think anyway, on Thursday they played Arizona, was like, um,
but yeah, he's just you know, you turn the ball over.

(34:46):
It reminds me of Chip Kelly's Organ Ducks. Right, You've
got to keep pace, and the second you don't and
you turn the ball over and they score touchdown, it's over.
And that's just kind of what this Kansas City team
has been able to do. Now I'm still waiting and
I know, um, you know, it's it's probably just stubborn
and ignorant to keep saying it, but he's a second
year player that guys, just it's such an anomaly to

(35:07):
have a young quarterback from an offense that he came
out of a Texas tech that spread offense, who doesn't
have great footwork on a team that doesn't have a
great defense to keep this up. It's so odd and
I guess it's just hard. I'm the old man yells
at cloud, you know, because I just it's hard for
me to accept it. It's like, man, this is all

(35:28):
this has gotta be a house of cards at some point,
right where is the Pat Mahomes four interception game? And
the defense can't stop anyone? And when you look at
the schedule, it's like, man, if it happens against the Rams,
you just be like, well, yeah, they're the Rams. I mean,
they're a really good team. But I just gotta believe
they're gonna have a two or three game stretch where
it kind of gets shaky, and I don't know if

(35:48):
it's it's stupid, I guess to suggest that now, I
think that happens in twenty nineteen in the fall, but
a buzz saw in the off season to pick against
him in the off season. He's one of my case
studies on my list of things to do to look
at how multi sport athletes, how that translates, especially at

(36:09):
the quarterback position. And you know he has that MLB
dad and you know, like his in his ability. Yeah.
So I guess my point is is like I think
that you know, if there's if there's ever a case
to be made for being a multi sport athlete and
not focusing too young. He might be it. It'll uh,
it's not just Pat Mahomes, but it's the entire team
that will break the mold um to have one of

(36:32):
the worst defenses in the league. I mean, you're talking,
you're getting healthier though Daniel Sorenson's back. I mean, they
could be getting health I don't know positive here. I
know you know what I'm saying, and I'm still I mean,
it's more impressive. It's more impressive that they're doing it
without a defense. You're not supposed to be able to um,
but that offense is so good that again, it would
be one of those well you know, you can move

(36:53):
with a great defense and just take care of the ball.
How often do they say you can have it just
a terrible defense, but just score a ton of points
and they won't be able to keep up with you.
Be kind of cool to actually see that happen for once.
Maybe they're the Warriors, right, Maybe they're like, that's and
that would then shift the NFL. Right, we are trying
and if the Rams do it, I mean, it's it's

(37:14):
very possible that teams will be like, you know, what
turns out, we don't have to focus on defense like
what used to do. All right, let's move to the
speaking of the Rams to the Packers, and the Rams
Rams favored by nine big one and is coming off
a boy to get that knee healthy? What you got?
Rams win in seventy one percent of simulations. The most
likely score is thirty one finish, which means only a touchdown,

(37:35):
is not nine points in seventy two point six of
the simulations. So that's I just thought nine. I think
nine aggress I think I know why though, it's because
Rams have a plus fifty three point home differential, which
is precisible. So that's that's But it's still Green Bay

(37:56):
and I don't think that they get rolled in this one.
And the reason why is third down success. Rogers is
the best third down passer rating one fourteen point seven
this season, and he has the most passing yards per
game and yards per attempt on third down. Like it
stinks that he is getting to third down so often,
but it's Aaron Rodgers, and on third down he's showing

(38:17):
you why he's generational. So for me, it's it's Aaron
Rodgers ability to keep up. If you do not see
what he does in the fourth quarter, if you're not
to see what he does in the second half, like
Davanta Adams, just put him on your fansy league and
just figure it out. I want to take the Packers here.
Do it just because it seems like an Aaron Rodgers game,
right then all you have to do is think that
they don't win by nine? Yeah, this is what I said.

(38:39):
You're you're the new kids, So you think you're pretty special,
do you? Well, let me show you what what the
best quarterback in the history of the league is capable
of doing. And there's nothing you can do a butter
I'm gonna rip your heart out in the final five minutes.
But he's This Green Bay team is not that good.
I thought they were and and maybe it's because Aaron
Rodgers has been limited so he can't work his magic
as much as he has in the past. But maybe

(38:59):
the bile change that. So what the heck I'll take
I'll take the pack Going to be a Packer straight
dog for you. The Chargers have been wearing the hole
every every home game is a road game with all
the folks that come out for the the opposing team.
The coliseum is going to be green and gold. It
is consolutely There are so many understandable. I mean, there's
a ton of Packer fans out here. And how often
did the Packers get out to l A. It turns

(39:20):
out they have and for the last twenty five years.
So anyway, it's really nice out here. The Packers manage
would come more often? Why wouldn't they? Wisconsin? All right,
let's go to the paths at Buffalo. Patriots favored by
two touchdowns. What do you got the Patriots winning in
seventy six point five percent of the simulations, most likely
score to sixteen. Cynthia, don't do what. I know they're

(39:41):
gonna win by four touchdowns. Four touchdowns. You know they're
gonna win by some touchdowns. I'm not I'm not saying
the only reason that the model thinks this the only
reason that it's I went through I looked at it
fifteen times because I think this is maybe the I
hate to say this, because still the pager to make
sure I just four make sure I say this. You know,

(40:01):
the Colts just beat him by thirty two. I just
don't think she's just beat him by thirty. I get it.
I get it, And I understand we've got a lot
of injuries, and I understand the quarterback was, you know,
watching us on NFL Network a couple of weeks ago.
I get it. But realistically, this is like when the
Pats don't show you any of their offense there. They

(40:22):
don't need to show you the tricks they have up
their sleeves. Yes, I get it. They scored thirty eight
points in four straight games, and James White in my model,
is a top five running back this week if they
win by This is when just just do something else
Monday night. Yeah, do anything else Monday night. Like, I
just think this is when we're like, like it stays Belichick,

(40:44):
Belichick Vandilla game all over it. That's a good That's
that's actually, that's that's interesting. Um, and I need to
pull up the pat schedule to see. So after this
they get Green Bay. Okay, you don't want to show No,
you're not going to show them. You're not showing Aaron Rodger.
But again, it's mid season. I mean they showed a
bunch of stuff last week against Kansas City against you

(41:05):
know what I mean, the Bears in Kansas City. They
had to win both of those games. But that's what
I mean. So it's not they're gonna win this one handily.
They're gonna get way ahead, and then they're gonna and
then and then they're just gonna be like, okay, so
we just ran you know, we're doing a slant. Okay,
slant again, like you know, it's not going to be
anything interesting. I don't even know if Gronk's playing like
I'm going pats By nine, got it? Yeah, definitely make

(41:27):
sure that how about this, that's pretty cool. Before we
get to the Brown's Steelers game, Browns have been making
a habit of playing more than sixty minutes this year.
Down the kick on the way and it is good
he missed it, and we're going to overtime. I can

(41:51):
say from experience played by play, guys should not be
that excited about going over time. Typically you're like, all right,
now I'm stuck here. Now I'm stuck here for another
half hour and it missed my fled I'm have to
spend the night in Cleveland or wherever. And by the way,
little nugget pulling back the curtain. If that game had
gone to overtime between the Chargers and the Titans. If

(42:12):
Mike Vrabelhead elected to just kick the extra point, we
would have had to stay in London. We would not, yes,
because we had to have wheels up out of Heathrow
by eight pm in order for l a X to
give us clearance to land there because they have to
they have to account for the longest possible flight time
with a severe head wind. And that wouldn't put us

(42:33):
in until after two am, um, unless we got up
after or before. So yes, I speak from experience knowing
for able you better go for two. And I'm sure
if you win or if you lose, you just go
don't go for two. And he did, and I was like, yeah,
Mike Cbels my favorite coach ever. I was so stoked.
All right, did the Browns have already played? I did not,

(42:54):
meet d Pas. I did not the Browns have already
played in four overtime games this year. Uh So, when you,
when you're fancy model, run ten thousand simulations on one game,
how often do you get a tie? Not very often?
It's I looked at I looked at the past, because
remember it kind of works on ten prior years of
historical data, and that uses. That's called training the model.

(43:15):
So you use all of the different things that we're
associated with wins, losses, and I guess even over time
in the past, and you say you use it as
look for a doppelganger. These things look like these things,
and this is how often that happened? Right? You can't
just say it's only happened you know, x percent of time. Ever,
it has to be with a play collar like this,
in a situation like this and a team configured like this,

(43:37):
How often does overtime happen? Realistically speaking, it is in
my model. Typically for some teams up to two that's
crazy high, and that's the Browns right now, But for
most teams it's like point zero five. So as four
as this game goes, we don't suspect over time because

(43:57):
the Steelers are favored by eight. What do you got? Okay,
So Steelers win in seventy three point four percent of
the simulations, most likely score pretty tight five points. Yeah,
So the Browns keep it closer in eighty four point
one percent of the simulations. And there's two reasons for it.
The first, their defense, especially in the passing game. They

(44:19):
create turnovers. They're tied number one most turnovers in the league.
So those interceptions, the reason that they're happening is because
of things that Big Ben can do. He throws some
not on target passes. Sometimes he gets he reacts to
pressure differently based on the situation. I hate the home
road splits for him, but I understand that, you know,

(44:40):
when you're when you got a passer like Miles, Yeah, okay,
but like I'm over that. It's like who you know,
I hate it too, and I want to hate it
and I never want to mention it. But it is
it's crazy, like I've never seen anything like it for
someone that plays outdoors in severe elements in the a
f C North, that he is so bad on the road,
it's it makes no sense, Like it is crazy. I

(45:02):
don't know what happens if he's got a special bed
at home, a hyperbar. I'm gonna ask him. I'm gonna
ask him if he has a different prep. Like it's
super chappy when you ask him, and it's like, well,
of course we're gonna ask you. Ben. You're terrible on
the road. You're I'm gonna be like, hey, when you
played at home, when you played at miamib Ohio, right,

(45:23):
did you sleep in your dorm? Start from that, right,
we'll go all the way. But like, I know something
about you. You went to miamib Ohio. You're kind of weird,
and you keep going. The thing about is the thing
that just quickly back to your projection. The one thing
that I do like about it is if you take
the Charger game out of it, the Brons has been
in every game. I mean they have been in every game.
I mean, obviously you played four overtime games. Of course

(45:44):
you're in every game. But but you know, really the
Charger games the outlier. Everything else has either been a
win a game they should have won, like the Pittsburgh
game that that died, like the Saints game that they
ended up losing, like the Raiders game that they got
a B S flag that they ended up losing. Like
this is a team that should not be an eight
point dog, I think, is what I'm getting next. And

(46:05):
the other thing I told you there's two reasons, right,
there's one and there's two. The second reason is Hugh
Jackson his play calling tests. Okay, maybe it's Todd Haley.
Whoever's calling their play Todd Haley? Okay, so who knows
you know who's you know who knows Todd Haley's tendencies
just just saying it. Turns out turns out his former
team kind of knows what he's gonna do. But but

(46:27):
the long story short on this one is they have weird,
erratic play calling tendencies. Whoever is calling the plays, they
do some illogical things at times, and we can get
into whole debate about going too for two or not.
I get mad about Twitter on that too, Like these
are the things I get mad about, like interceptions being
being um whether or not that they're actually real or not, whatever,
strategic and two point conversations. But Brown's play calling weird,

(46:52):
so it keeps it a more erratic and keeps them
in it. It's like playing poker against someone that doesn't
play poker. All the time. You're trying to figure out
what the heck they're doing and you can't, and they
stimes messed up the whole and the Steelers defense is targetable.
So there you go. Let's go to us settle at Detroit.
Detroit is currently favored by three. What do you have?

(47:13):
So the Lions win in fifty percent the simulations. Damon
Harrison got traded there today. I don't know if he's
gonna play. Now. I ran it with if he's a
defensive tackle, right, It's like, hey, it seems like he should,
but but we don't have anything that says for sure
that he is. It seems like he should, so if

(47:33):
he plays, that goes up to fifty eight point because
I ran it both ways for you today, get this
right right, if not too most likely score twenty four three.
This is a close one, but the and the Lions
it could if Snacks plays. Wait for the injurport on
this one for sure, because it's going to be an
interesting impact here because that run game and the ability

(47:54):
for the Lions to stop the run is really, really,
really key to this game because in weeks three through seven,
Seattle rushed for you know, point three yards per Lately,
Chris Carson's really kind of lifted that ground game, right,
So if they can establish the run like that, if
Seattle can, that keeps Russell Wilson out from under pressure
where he has like a forty nine passer rating versus

(48:17):
Matthew Stafford under pressure, which is one four team because
you know what that's all Matthew Stafford's trained to do
is be under pressure, so it's it's not as big
of an impact to Stafford a few feels pressure than
it is for Russell Wilson. So if that run game,
that's just everything hinges on, everything just quickly with Russell. Like,
the interesting thing is he's not playing well. He's got
a good running game. He's actually not been under duress
as much as I thought he would be. JERMAINEA. Fetti,

(48:39):
who was terrible at the start of the season's been
serviceable for the most part. Um. So it's just kind
of been interesting that he's struggling a little bit and
it's been this ground game that carries him. And you
wonder maybe during the bye they figure something out, because
if he can get back to being the Russell Wilson
he was last year with a run game with maybe
tackles that have started to figure it out. The defense
playing pretty well, I mean they are act of being

(49:00):
a pretty formidable defense. Uh branded their stats have come
against you know, the Raiders that they absolutely hammered three,
but I mean they were in that game against the Rams.
I know they let up thirty three points, but they
were in it. Um So that that's kind of what
I'm anxious to see is can Russell Wilson makes some
hay here and it did he figure something out? Because
he has not been great, uh this season, despite having

(49:21):
a running game to lean on which he hasn't had
for a while. Well, here's the here's the one pushback
I'll give you on that Detroit on Thereby, they figured
out how to create interesting pressures and use their linebacker.
Jared Davis is playing a lot better, but they have
interesting fronts now like more Billy Belichick e in or whatever.
Matt Patricia. I think they're starting to understand the strategy.
Patricia's laying down because last week against Miami, we saw

(49:45):
the Lions go from ranking like twenty three in the
league pressuring about a quarter of the time to pressuring
over of the time against Miami. So I think maybe
they're starting to figure things out as well. So that
could be. You know, it's it's one week room from
a bye week. I get it, but I think that
that helped them learn this defense and how to navigate it. All. Right,

(50:07):
let's quickly before we get to some fantasy futures and
a couple coin flips. Then we're gonna get out of
here because we know it goes along. It always does.
I just get too worthy. It's my fault. We use
g Suite. We love g sweet. It is a sweet
cloud based productivity cools tools that is cool. And it
includes Gmail, which I'm using right now. Uh. It includes
Docs which we are all using right now, slide sheets

(50:28):
and Drive. Just use Drive with my daughter as a
matter of fact, to help her out with the college letter.
These tools improve your work life both in terms of
your experience and the outputs you create. Hence, uh, make
it with g suite. So here's the way it works.
We are constantly tweaking this because players are traded, players
are injured, Cynthia's model decides to come off cs to

(50:51):
and it spits out a different result. And instead of
having to send a brand new document every single time
that's marked up through email, you just make the change
on wherever your G Suite document is and it changes
all of them. Uh So no more final final Final Finals. Instead,
it just changes through this range of work apps. In Gmail,

(51:13):
Docs slides real time updates to the same document, and
it changes for every single person that has that document.
Because they're cloud base, everybody can access it at the
exact same time, and I can see the name pop
up whoever's editing, And if it's Cynthia, I smile. If
it's Shoppy, I scream, shoppy. Get out of the document,
just like that, exactly right. So to find out more

(51:35):
about g Sweet productivity tools, visit g Sweet Just the
letter g sweet dot com. That's sweet dot com, your
daughter's letter. No, she wanted me to edit it. I
wanted to make sure it was gramatically correct. She's like,
is this right? Is this? Did I say this right? Yeah? No,
a literation just just tweaking. Hey, grammatically, I kind of
like this instead of you know, saying saying that, instead

(51:58):
of who you know, things like that, little stuff like that.
So all right, here we go, fantasy futures. Who do
you like? Tyler Boyd, carry On Johnson And yes, I
know Michael Robertson Lagart Blunt stole his touchdowns last week,
but I don't care. I'm still picking him this one,
Marlon Mack and receive Raheem Mostert. There's some touchdowns for you. Yeah,
monster taking all the carries there in San Francisco, and
you know how important it is to run the ball
for Kyle Shanahan's offense. So that's something you always want

(52:21):
to keep an eye on if you're playing fantasy and
people aren't paying attention to a team that's not doing great. Um,
but raheem speaking of that game alright, San Francisco in Arizona,
we're calling him coin flips. What do you got? Cardinals
win in fifty three point one percent of the simulations?
That one is kind of interesting. Most likely score twenty
three one. Let's pick him right now. So the key

(52:44):
reason that the Cardinals come on on top is chaos
Byron Left, which is there as an offensive coordinator. We
don't know anything about his tendencies, we don't know how
he's and Josh Rosen, by the way, did appear on
the injury report today with a toe injury. I think
he'll be okay, but keep an eye on that one
just in case. But this one will come down to
the fact that Byron Left, which will create creative schemes.
I talked to you Marie stones Drew, whose friends with him,

(53:06):
who's played with him, has a really deep understanding of him,
and we talked about what he could potentially do. Now,
my model doesn't talk about potential that is from a conversation. However,
you do see kind of the tendencies in the trees
that people came from and where that where they played.
So I think Byron left, which will create some more
offense and some interesting opportunities for Josh Rosen. Okay, and uh,

(53:28):
how about New Orleans at Minnesota Today Night Football? A
rematch of the Visional Round that ended with the miracle
in in Minneapolis. I think they called it. That's right, Um,
the Saints win in fifty four point three percent of
the simulations. The most likely score is so right now
to pick him, and I would go get that right now,
because let's talk about this injury report. I think no

(53:50):
injury reports gonna be more interesting on Friday than this
one because Minnesota has Xavier Rhodes. Maybe they get back
Everson Griffin, maybe like some of I don't know if
with Linval Joseph and like there's Anthony Bart Like a
bunch of people were on Minnesota's injury report. They've already
ruled Dalvin Cook out. I think a guard appeared on

(54:11):
it as well. Like this is when to really keep
track of because it seems like the Saints are getting
more healthy and the Saints are kind of becoming more
sat like what we're thinking. I mean Ingram and Camara
are working together now, like all of these things. And
then at the same time, it's like, what do we
expect from the Vikings who lost my cues already? Like
they have a lot of they have a lot of
defensive injuries to monitor. Okay, so there's your coin flips.

(54:34):
That means we're finished. But you've got to try to rebound.
And this is your own I am rebounding, that's happening.
Can I make a recommendation? Here's what I would do
if I were you. Here's the way I do this.
All right now, I'm not the math person, but my
confidence picks, Cynthia. I'm going with Bears just because you
got them winning seventy of the time in your medal.

(54:56):
I'm going with the Colts just because you got him
at sevent of the time. Snooze is what I'm seeing.
Keep going, Texans. It's called confidence and you're going with
three tough ones here. Yeah, I'm just all right, what
do we got here? We go? It's no fun if

(55:17):
you're not outsmarting someone else. It's early, it's Wednesday, so
right now, my partner's an adrenaline junkie. Here we go.
It's Wednesday. I'm Jack del Rio. I'm not I'm not
Jack right now. A lot of fun time off. Yeah, well,
you know he has memories of like playing well with
the Raiders, the last one to have a winning Raiders season,

(55:38):
the last one to bring their Raiders to the playoffs. Okay, see,
I'm Jack del Rio. Here we go. Confidence right now.
It's a pick them, and I want New Orleans to
win in this one, so that's a good one. Second,
I want Green Bay and I think they're going to
keep it closer than nine points. I have thirty is
a refresher, and I think they're going to be more

(56:00):
points than you think. This one you don't like in
Baltimore versus Carolina. I mean it's like you've taken the
three toughest notes. He are you kidding me? You are
you kidding me? We called it a coin flip. We
said the Saints Vikings game is considered a coin flip,
and it's considered a coin flip by me, it's considered
a coin flip by other Cynthia, you'll be bold with

(56:22):
that print you're wearing on that jacket. All right, I'm
just gonna chet It's cheetah print and it's warm. I'm
wearing a Bland green T shirt. And you've got a cheat.
You're wearing a craft beer T shirt. Let's be honest.
It is it is for maybe looking forward to it
is for cool people. I'm wearing a cheetah print. That's
for like old Granny's enjoy your crow Chane and your

(56:42):
book club. I'm gonna go get me a craft beer
and uh enjoy the rest of the evening. A big
thank you to Sean shoppyr Man with all the sound
effects and helping us put together the rundown. Our executive well,
I guess I would call him the fryer of no fun,
Mark Brad who was over Shoppy Shoulder monitory and all

(57:02):
of this, and all of you who download and listened,
we certainly appreciate it. Cynthing. I'll be back next week
to recap her recaps, specifically the confidence recap when all three,
when all three are true, I want all three to
come through. But when all three are true, we're gonna
get some craft beers. That's what's good good I'll buy
all right, Thanks for downloading, listening, streaming and sharing on

(57:24):
social media. We appreciate it. We back again next week.