Game Theory and Money: Week 9 NFL Predictions

Cynthia Frelund and her analytics are heating up! Cynthia picked 12 of the 14 winners correctly last week, and nailed all three of her confidence picks. Now she has to try and figure out how the Aaron Rodgers-Tom Brady showdown will turn out. 

See what she thinks the score will be when it’s all said and done, along with predictions on the rest of the week 9 action.

Packers-Patriots (3:00). Chiefs-Browns (6:00). Falcons-Redskins (9:18). Titans-Cowboys (11:53). Raiders-49ers (16:00). Steelers-Ravens (19:43). Fantasy Futures (24:45). Broncos-Texans (26:05). Rams-Saints (28:20). Buccaneers-Panthers (33:25). Jets-Dolphins (36:10). Bears-Bills (37:25). Chargers-Seahawks (40:00). 3 Confidence picks (43:25). NFC Playoff Predictions (44:15). AFC Playoff Predictions (48:00).

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
Welcome to Game Theory and Money Hour, week nine podcast.
As we start every show, I'll make it quick because
I know you don't like the grab ass to get
things rolling. But thank you for listening, Thanks for for streaming, downloading,
and sharing on social media, reviewing all of those things.
We certainly appreciate it. Again, just the second year doing this,
and we continue to grow with Cynthia Freeland on that
Money Smith, Cynthia running those ten thousand simulations, if not more,

(00:22):
Just real quick, Cynthia, because of the trade deadline, how
much you look exhausted? Um, and you mentioned you had
to code for a lot of hours because of all
the changes. So what just kind of you know, because
I'm stupid, help us, help us understand, you know what
changes and why you have to do so much more
with players like Golden Tate and too Mary's Thomas and

(00:44):
Dante Fowler moving teams, and and how you adjust for that. Well,
the cool part is you can look at like sort
of dopplegangers, right, so you look through like ten fifteen
years worth of history, and you see when you have
a pass rusher like from the perimeter, like where Dante
follow are we coming from? And you have really great
interior pressure and you have Wade Phillips calling it. You

(01:05):
can look to doppelgangers, like let's look at the Broncos.
So you have like a Vaughn and a Mark, but
Derek up in the middle on the outside. Okay, all right,
you look for comparable. It's kind of like when you're
in real estate and you're like, well, how much should
I pay for my house? And you're like, well, what
do the neighbor cell there's for? Right, So it's similar
looking for like that say to that, you know, not one,
what do the old cliche? I want the crappiest house

(01:28):
in the mess neighborhood? Well, right, what I want? But
I don't want. I don't want your fancy remodel with
your double pain windows and your jaccuzzi and the master
suite and a crappy neighborhood. That's not what I want.
You want at California dirt levels, right, dirt value. I
want to take it down to one wall, so it's
not new construction and it's a remodel. That's what I want.
All right. I veered off course, so you're going to
give you a quick pick though, all right, So I really,

(01:51):
really really, there's a lot of really cool games. That's
three really plus a really so yeah, that's four. Yeah.
But the one that I don't think it's going to
be very exciting and meaning less points than you might expect.
When the Jets go down to South Florida. I think
that the magical number there's forty five, and I'm thinking
that is going to be a boring, low scoring game.

(02:13):
I mentioned on the not saying he's winning yet, but
I'm gonna say very sleepy game in South Florida. Offensively challenged,
is how we'll put it. By the way, this is
gonna be the first week that you do your playoff
projections based on percentages, so we'll do that. Let's quickly
recap last week. You were twelve and two, uh, picking
winners against the number. You were nine four and one.

(02:34):
You got the Philadelphia Jacksonville Push eighty two and thirty
eight for the year. Uh, just picking the winners and
despite my protests, three for three. Yeah, you're like, it's like,
come on, that's right. So that is now up you
two fifteen and eleven. Right, So let's let's get to it.

(02:59):
What do you say we like to call these freelance favorites.
That's because you are in step with the team that
is supposed to win according to the number and by
the number, if not better. So let's gosh, talk about
coming out the gate strong. Yeah. Yeah, the the Aaron
Rodgers Tom Brady Sunday Night football show down between the
Pats and the pack Uh the line five and a half? Okay, draw,

(03:24):
there's your highlighter right there. Five and a half. Go ahead,
and you have and you have the Pats winning by
five and a half, covering in six. Yeah. So I
have the Patriots win in six of the models, just
straight up. Yeah right. I think by the time Sunday
rolls around, that five and a half that you're seeing
is going to be something more like seven and a half.

(03:46):
If it goes over one touchdown, then this is a
different then this is a different recommendation. But the fact
that it's only five and a half, that's like the
opposite of how I felt about like that the Rams
they were getting night, the the Packers were getting nine
points and then you go to the Patriots and it's
five and what. So keep an eye on this one
because this is one now I do, and that's why

(04:10):
I think that it's interesting just use that. So my
most likely scoring this one is twenty one and in
six at the time they're more than five and a half.
That's that's a really nice pick. So we talked about
trading time Montgomery. But really the one that's interesting here,
and the one that drives the Patriots win is the
fact that they got rid of Hat and the middle
of the field and the mismatch between Gronk and whoever

(04:32):
they're going to try to a little bit little bit
without ha ha Clinton, Dicks is going to be trickier
on the whole space, and that's really what drives the
wind for the Patriots in general. But then the bigger
win is based on how many times each team scores
field goals versus kicking. So in this case, this one
recommends that there's more of a like a one overall

(04:54):
touchdown difference as opposed to, you know, many field goals,
because last week we saw the Patriots kick a bunch
of field goals that's in this In this situation, I
think they're going to score the tochdowns. Yea. The lack
of Dicks is a big issue, considering Gronk is an
impossible cover as it is and he's pretty darn good.
And I want to point out one tricky thing here
to watch. So we talked about the Patriots and they're
they're currently ranked number thirteen in pressures, the defensive pressures.

(05:17):
But I went back and looked at it and they
had six total pressures weeks one through four, which was
twenty nine in the league. And then and then since then,
so weeks five through eight combined, they have forty three
total pressures. So that is now ranking them nine and
then and that's really that uptick and pressure that eighty
one total where they're at now, that's a huge difference.

(05:38):
So they're getting that defensive pressures going. You'll see the
sax come. You'll see things like, all right, you got
the Pats, I got my dog. I got my dog.
Karon Rodgers. Uh, I guess who won that bat last week?
Huh this guy? I was right? What are you talking about?
We we we both took the rams. I took the rams
to win. Oh you didn't take the point. Oh you
took the points. Correct. Hey, wait to go, Cynthia. Even
when I win, I can't win. And I thought for

(05:59):
sure I add that on you, all right, chiefs at
Browns I have a feeling we're both going to be
in step here line Ksey minus eight. You have the
Chiefs winning seventy eight percent of the time and covering
seventy of the time. There it is, I don't know.
I mean the main reason two things combined, the Kansas City,
Hugh jack You had so much respect for Hugh Jackson,

(06:20):
you you can't envision how the Browns could really actually,
you know, it's really actually I really loved Tied Haley's
a plague. I really loved that. Um No, the real
the reality here is it's all about big plays. So
the Browns defense their thirty one in the league in
big plays allowed, they've allowed six. The Chiefs have actually
allowed more with seventy four. But the problem is is

(06:41):
on either side of the ball here, who's more likely
just to get those big plays? And really the Kansas
City has the advantage of this one, right, And then
you look at the Browns coaching changes. Honestly, I love
the like narrative of this, like John Dorsey quarterback pool,
like Ricker may Field versus Patrick. By the way, Dorsey
didn't pick Momes. That's Andy Reid, end of story, you think.

(07:02):
So I know, so oh about that. I thought that
was I mean, Dorsey is, I'll say this, and and
just kind of traveling in the circles and and barket.
It's not like they. I wouldn't say he's revered. I
would say he is. He is cited more often than
any other GM that I have been in conversations with
as the number one talent evaluator in the NFL. I

(07:23):
hear his name more than anybody else. Um, And look,
how do we start that rumor about like someone else, right,
because like, look, I don't I'm not I'm not saying
he's not good at telling, Like, please do not say that, right, Like,
I don't know. You just threw him under the bus.
You were like, hey, he didn't pick Mahomes. That's not
what I heard, man. I heard he went. I heard
he was like time with Mahomes dad. And he's like,
that's a guy. And like baseball, let's everybody talk about

(07:47):
how Andy was like no trade for brock Oswiler And
he was like, no, dude, We're going to get my
homes all right. Beyond that, I'm going to tell you though,
in the case of now the other some of the
other picks Tyree Hill, Travis Kelsey, there's a lot of
great ones Karea Hunt yea, I'll give you some Dorsey
flex on that one. But when it comes to Patrick Mahomes,
that was Nanny reads back. The most important part of

(08:08):
this conversation is the number and is giant, and it's
actually a higher spring game than people think about it,
Like I think this one. Look at fifty one and
a half is where they think for that key number,
and they think that there will be more total points
scored than they know that. Of all the things we
disagree on, it was Dorsey. I see your little note
there for Dorset Dorsey dot dot dot. I roll unbelievable.

(08:31):
We choose gum and he has a wacky disposition. But
come on, Cynthia, you can evaluate talent. I gotta I
got a good um. I want to take the bounce,
by the way I do, because that's how little I
think of you, Jack so um, But I won't because
God knows they're not going to be able to keep up. Well.
But I also think eight, right, Like if it was fourteen,
then could you potentially could like say, I could still
take the cheese. Okay, Well, um, here's a fun trivia

(08:54):
fact because you think this isn't a particular exciting game. Overall,
mahomes second highest passer, eating one and eleven point one
by a player in his first nine career games in
the Super Bowl era. Guess who's number one? Well, I
could see the note, so you can tell the folks, Warner.
I don't know. I think that's fun up a little
a little bit. I don't care, I hear you. I

(09:14):
don't care, but I think it's kind of a cool note. Exactly,
all right, Falcons Redskins. Redskins favored by a single point,
and you have them winning by three and six of
your simulations. Yep. Ultimately, this one boils down to the
fact that the Redskins got better, especially at that safety position.
If you look over fifteen seasons of data, you can

(09:37):
see that the optimal configuration for earning wins on a
defense is if you have a really strong defensive front.
They're good at pressures, they're going to at stopping the
run and up the middle on all three layers. You're
great three levels, not layers whatever. So those safeties, and
they got better at that position, at the safety position.
So I think that this one, even though Matt Ryan
and his pastorch is having a really good season, just

(10:00):
not enough in this matchup. And it's just not enough.
You know. The one thing that jumped out at me,
um because you know, remember early in the season we
were talking about Jay Gruden and is Alex Smith you know,
was he celebrated because he was a product of his
head coaches. Because Jim Harbaugh is widely considered one of
the brighter offensive minds, he had that benefit. Then he
goes to Andy Reid, considered the brightest offensive mind in

(10:22):
the NFL. And now are we going to see you
think that Dorsey does better? Anyways, just kidding me, keep
going the uh but but here's what we've now noticed,
you know, and an offensive coordinators don't like running the
ball and playing great defense. You know, it's kind of
like Brian Billick, our colleague. Here's uh great lament is
that the Super Bowl they won was done with very
little offense and the dominant defense. But you just mentioned

(10:44):
how good that defense is. And look, maybe obviously getting
a safety like Dicks to go along with Swearinger, when
you have that type of pass rush, you can see,
I mean, that's a huge upgrade for them. Even though
they desperately needed a wide receiver. But just look at
Alex Smith's attempts and their wins versus their losses, the
two losses thirty nine and forty six, all their wins
thirty thirty two. They gotta run the ball, and that's

(11:06):
just that. That's that's with with that offensive line and
that offensive line, you know, that's there's that's their recipe.
And I think early on, you know, or maybe they
got into that Saints game and they're like, Okay, we're
gonna have to keep up. Let's start throwing it around,
and it's like, no, that's you gotta go back to
Alex Smith. Game manager. Doesn't want to push the ball downfield,
don't turn it over as well, exactly, let's win these

(11:27):
games twenty three seventeen. There you go. That's this week.
And you know what the with with with the NFC
East looking uh like it does. That's that's their recipe,
you know too. All right, we we are fortunate that
we got out to this quick start. Philadelphia didn't. Let's
just keep that advantage are coming up later? Yeah, who's

(11:50):
going to make spoiler alert along with your playoff percentages?
All right? Titans that Cowboys. You already kind of spoiled this.
Speaking of spoiler alert, you mentioned you would stream the
Cowboys defense. Um, so Cowboys win in seventy three of
the simulations. The line is six and a half and
so the Cowboys winning eighteen would suggest that they're going

(12:11):
to win handily. In fact, in my model, they win
by more than six and a half points sixty six
percent of the time. My model says to me, here,
it's the Titans lack of big players on offense. They
are number thirty two in the league in big place.
So those are passes of twenty plus or rushes of
ten plus, and it's really the passing only have eleven
completions of twenty plus. It's annoying, guards, it really is.

(12:34):
I mean it's annoying. Could they really could have torn
the chargers up on those with play actions and push
it and Marcus just won't do it. He won't do it.
Everything is a it's crazy. And then just like alright,
I'm spending anyways, So Cowboys, Cowboys ability to defend what
the Titans are bringing are is really what is overwhelmingly

(12:56):
going to give them is the magic number. I'd go
that you just you below. Yeah, just because the Cowboys
offense isn't explosive. Over you do I have more than eighteen?
That adds up to forty five. They would go on
nine and a half minute drives to get three points
and Rivers would complete three passes for a touchdown. And

(13:16):
it's like, can you guys not adjusted? Do you not
recognize this is not gonna work for you? You've got
to move the bind They just don't. They refuse to
do it. So everyone's going back and forth about like
is a Maria Cooper worth it or not? Blah blah
blah blah blah. Well, I don't care about worth it
or not because nobody's paying me to figure out what
to pay him or how much equity to give up.
But they are paying me to figure out what's going
to happen with him on the field. What happened? Scott

(13:38):
Lindahan has a very simple offense. They run a very
simple offense, and by virtue of Amara Cooper being there,
if he's even marginally successful, if he even draws defenders
away like three or four feet, that makes Zeke just
so much more able to operate. So it's all back.
They have to honor a legitimate but it's fact that
they have to at least account for him, and the
Titans will have to count from they do all these

(13:59):
exotic fronts and all these busess they're going to have
to be like, hey, where's that guy. Yeah, we've seen
him drops some passes before, but like he's still someone
we have to account for, so it should. It just
makes zeke like supercharges zeke. Okay, and uh, all right,
let's go Lions at Vikings. We have to yes, all right,
oh sorry, Minnesota by five and you have Minnesota by

(14:21):
six of your simulations. I think the Vikings could win
hey more handily. Hey, once you sit up, no, stop slouching.
All right, you come in here, and you you deliver
your message. I don't appreciate that. Once you sit up,
Why don't you have some respect if you're going to
come in here and deliver this information. Okay, you come
in one he comes in in resident in person. One time.
He thinks he owns the whole podcast studio. Right, that's right, Dot,

(14:44):
you sit up, once you have some respect, you deliver
this information exactly exactly right. Sure, yep, Jean um so
getting rid of Golden Tate for the Lions is a
real big deal. Huh, A big deal. As it turns out,
third down becomes a lot trickier, especially when the Vikings

(15:05):
are so good at stopping the run, especially when Golden
Tate's yards after the catch are elite, you know, top
in the league over the past two seasons, you know,
top three, top two. Depends on how you want to
measure it on third down, especially is where he's key.
The slot position now becomes very questionable. I'm guessing it's
Kenny Golladay that gets the biggest uptake. If you're looking
for a fantasy streaming option on this one, it could

(15:28):
go Marvin Jones, though I don't know how they're going
to re configure all of their different passing options here.
And realistically, look, we saw the Vikings last week do
something that is troublesome for the for the future, but
not going to be a problem against the Lions. But
something to point out now, the Vikings and the turnovers
on their third down and not interceptions necessarily, but also fumbled.

(15:51):
They lead the league in that that's going to be
a problem for the future, as it turns out, likely
not a problem against the Lions. Oh boy, this one's
ugly yep Raiders at forty Niners Niners by three. You
have the Niners by five in your simulation? Is interesting?
You know what's interesting about not a lot? What's interesting

(16:13):
about this matchup? Not a lot? You know what's interesting
about Derek Carr. He usually doesn't let his team win
by more than what they should win, right, but doesn't
usually usually covers. Want to use that word, I don't
know what that means. Covers something makes sense like a blanket. Um.
But in this one, I don't think that happens. You
think they win. I think I think that santi right,

(16:35):
Like I don't he Derek Carr usually like puts a
thorn in the side of people who think, Hey, it's
gonna be three. I'm Derek Carts too. Yeah. I mean, like,
here's the thing about the forty Niners that I can't
quite figure out. Um well, actually I can't figure it out. A.
Their secondary is not good, um be their offense. Their
defensive line has one player, the Forrest Buckner, who's really good,

(16:58):
and everybody else Sally Thomas. I don't know Peter's armstead. Um.
But that's that's my one issue with this and why
I think maybe the Raiders come out ahead, okay because
just got spicy. It did just because their offensive line
is terrible. I mean, the Raiders offensive line is terrible,

(17:18):
but the Niners. Who would have thought at the beginning
of the season that when we be that my note
on this game would be that the reason the forty
Niners are gonna win is because their old line is
actually better than the Raiders. That's what the model said
in every single game. This, I guess is healthy. But
in every single game this season, the forty Niners old

(17:39):
line has played better. So if you measure like how
much they get pushed back causing disruptive plays to happen
on passing down, how much they create space for running
back to run, they've actually every single game they've improved
the Raiders exact opposite and the Raiders secondary it's terrible.
These are too bad to allegedly. Allegedly, Gary garyon Connley

(18:04):
has allegedly told people, I'm just gonna keep saying allegedly
because I'm not a real journalist, I don't know when
you're supposed to actually use it or not. But it's alleged.
He didn't say it to me, so it's alleged that
he said he cannot pick up the footwork of Paul
Gunther's defense. Allegedly, but it's really hard for me to
believe that a Ohio State corner who I saw and
watched a lot of in college, I can't pick up

(18:25):
this footwork. So I don't know if that's true or not.
But allegedly, and you know, as Philip Rivers told us,
they play a lot of base defense, so I'm not
sure what that exactly means. But for them to have
those kind of complaints coming up isn't surprising recorded to
their depth chart. And as I see, my god, he's bad,
Marcus Jill Christ I'm surprised Karl Joseph didn't get dealt

(18:46):
because he's like, he's like great, right, so I'm surprised
you did. They already caught me. Yeah, he's terrible. And
Joseph hasn't been that great, you know he's but then
again it's hard to say because that's I don't know.
I wouldn't go that far. I think I think he
has a lot of potential. Like I think if you
were shopping someone that if they're the full like tear down,

(19:07):
I'll take the niners with you. I'll take the night.
All right, all right, here we go. Uh this we
are focused on the score. So Steelers at Ravens a
FC North battle and it's something it tilt. I usually
use tilt if I can make it, you know, an alliteration.
So it's a cowboys type. It's a Steelers Ravens rumble.

(19:34):
Just say, you know, Ravens Steelers showdown. So yes, I
will do for Ravens rumble. There you go. So let's
go Steelers Ravens. You got the Ravens winning three? Yeah,
and I have. I'm saying that's probably about right. Um.
I think that more points will be scored in this
one than you might originally think. Is my score, which

(19:59):
means forty point. If the magic numbers forty seven and
a half points, then that's more so ultimately big number.
It's not when you consider. That helped me consider since
I look at it and I go, man, it's a
big number. The model really flags the Steelers secondary as
being a very vulnerable part of their offense or defense,
rather so the Ravens. The model flag Joe Flacco is

(20:21):
not good. The model says that Joe Flacco is going
just to have a fantasy werethy consideration streaming game and
they did. They did uh, they did add at they
did add time Montgomery, So maybe his big Stanford brain.
I think it's more like the fact that I think
they're going to get like crab cheese. They can't really

(20:43):
run the ball Brown about the you know, John Brown,
crab Tree, aiden Hurst just coming around it tight end.
I just think that the Ravens uptick in offense this
season is outmatches the Steelers secondary. I think the Steelers
front is not what I'm talking about. I'm talking about
the Steelers secondary. All right, I'm gonna push back. I'm

(21:04):
taking the Steelers and I'm saying low. Wouldn't you think
that if this is going to be you think it's
a low scoring If it's gonna be a close game, though,
that favors potentially more points, right, because you gotta keep going,
keep in the field goals. Remember, and I only know
this point because Check reminds us anytime there's a Pittsburgh
Ravens uh rumble. Uh. He roundly reminds us anytime the

(21:30):
the these games. It's crazy like and I didn't believe
it when he first brought it up. If you look
at the history of these games. I want to say,
in the last ten years, I think it's either just
one or two of them have ever been decided by
more than two points. It's crazy. I mean it is
nuts when you go through how tight these and most
of them are low scoring. They're mostly sixteen thirteen, seventeen fourteen,

(21:51):
they're right in that range. Like, it is nuts, how
tight the games are. So I understand why you're focusing
on is it high or low scoring instead because typically
it's right around that that number and you don't know
which way to lean. Um, if I were just saying
in this one, I would just say Ravens win, yeah,
and I would just say States win. I'll trust Big

(22:11):
Bannon and Antonio don't care. How about James Connerman. So
dudes killing it? And by the way, that like when
you say dude, by the way, and by the way,
did I say, did I drop a dude on you?
That's my favorite dude? Um, you cannot you cannot discount
how good what has been a suspect offensive line is planned.

(22:33):
That old line is planning great right now for the Steelers.
So shout only gets suspect for that group last year
is pretty bad last year that that offensive line of
all things on that team was their weakness. I think
if you were to pick a particular position group, and
this year, I think it's probably been like you mentioned,
their secondary is not good, their defensive front's been mediocre.
I think it's probably their best their best position group. Yeah,

(22:55):
I mean, which which is a dramatic turn from last year.
But yeah, you're right when you see Marky's pouncey and
of adochaster like, well, yeah, they should be good. Um,
but I think last year they were anyway. Alright, like
when we're split, we got a couple of these. Typically
I'm I'm always wrong, so it works out well for you.
Even when I think I'm the one that's right, You're like,

(23:15):
I had the points, dummy. Alright, fine, listen, I just
have to defend when I get it right, you know.
Even though we're sitting here next to one another. Um, finally,
we are both still using our g suite and that's
Google Docs and Google Drive and all the tools we
use to make this uh particular podcast happen, and we

(23:37):
love it. It makes it easy. We don't have to
send one iteration of the rundown after another. Instead we
can update it in the moment, and I can see
Cynthia when she's editing. It's a little red square that
comes on, and that's fine. But when I see a
purple square pop up and it says Mark Brady, I
just get angry, like, hey, you get on, get on

(23:59):
our document. Trying to just what we're doing on this podcast.
We want you to make it with g suitet so
you can find out the ease in which you can
adjust whatever it is that you're doing, whatever your document, maybe,
whatever the plan is. Uh. What's the point of sending
around a oh third uh iteration? And here is the
fifth version? Can you please make adjustments and email it

(24:19):
to everybody? No use Gmail, use docs, use slides, make
real time updates to the same dock without having to
keep track a version after version to make sure that
you sent out uh, tournament sheet number four. You know
what we're saying. Find out more about g suitet productivity
tools visit g sweek dot com. That's g suite dot com.
We use it here, we use it, uh and it
helps us greatly. Make it with g suite by Google Cloud.

(24:43):
Do you want like five touchdowns really quick for our
fantasy notes? Yeah, what do we got? Okay, so so
where do you want where do you want to start? Comment?
This is let's go love Trek Cohen. Everybody figured why
shouldn'ta everybody A lot of people thought he'd be he
would benefit from the addition of Matt Maggie as his
head coach, an offensive play calor, and it's worked out.
He's got good touchdown rate this week, I would hope.
So with that, with that Bill's defense, I got another

(25:06):
Latavius Murray this week. Okay against Alliance Book. That's a
that's a nice pick right there. Um, I'm gonna stick
with I gotta give you a flex option because that's
what we got like to talk here. Um, I'm gonna go.
I'm gonna start with Nick Chubb. He scores a touchdown.
I got Ben Watson Ready, Ben Watson, double up on that,
Ken Watson to touchdown? Watson up. I'm saying it because

(25:29):
maybe he hasn't really you know, like everyone needs a
tight end, right um. And then there's some obvious ones
here like Kareem Hunt, Alvin Kamara. That one's interesting, Mark Andrews.
If you're really deep, Mark Andrews heard of him. And
then Jeff Heyerman hireman hireman. Sorry sight, it's a weird hireman.

(25:50):
Hireman like h I G H E R just like
that higherman, just like him, and he lives in I'll
remember that because he worked. He plays for the Broncos.
R Denverse's exactly. He's the mile High. He's mile high.
There we go. All right, those your touchdowns. Let's get
to a coin flip game Texans. Speaking of mile High,
how did this work out for US Texans at Broncos. Uh,

(26:12):
it's a pick them, sure is, and you have the Texans. Yep,
Texans win seven of the time. I don't love the
score on this one is what I have projected, And
by saying I don't love the score meaning I'm not
exactly sure. So minus Will Fuller plus DT Jamarus Thomas.

(26:33):
You know, there's just they're just run that way real fast, right,
and then someone right, and then Bronchos minus Damarrius Thomas
and then plus like Courtland Sutton and all those people
who could fill in for him. But ultimately this one
comes down to the Texans defensive front and their ability
to just pressure the crap out of Keenum. And we

(26:54):
know what happens when Kim is under pressure. Oh he's
good to throw an interception every game. It's just not
a it's not a good situation of under pressure. And
the Texans elite pressure is really what drives the win
in this one for them. So Houston's tied for ten
with twenty one sacks. Uh. They have seven interceptions on
the season, which I think this is considerably lower than
I would have suspected. Well, you know why, you're actually

(27:16):
showing something that analytics will tell you. There's pressures and
then there's pressures disruptive, and what you're seeing when you
watch the Texans defensive front are disruptive pressures. They're changing
the course of action for the opposing quarterback, Whereas some
pressures are just like okay, well I wasn't going to
really like I'm looking right, you're coming at me from
or I'm looking left you whatever, you're coming from the
opposite side, it's not really going to disrupt me, or

(27:38):
like Drew Brees who's throwing so quickly that doesn't even matter, right,
So that's the kind of thing where you're you're seeing
how they're being disruptive. So, yeah, exactly, and that is
important because there are not it's not always about the SEC.
That's why I'm trying to figure out. Okay, so that
old line and am not crazy about that Broncos A line.
The Broncos old line is great at helping their running

(27:58):
back run. That's true at Wall and Patrick Lindsay's also
helped it. I was also good at helping himself run,
of course, but you know you need both, right you know? Look,
there are last Yes, you can. You can have a
good pass blocking line and a terrible run blocking line.
You're gonna have a good run blocking line and they
are not good and pass pro no question. What's the
next segment? There we go. We like the points, uh,

(28:21):
Saints favored by two at home, less than three at home,
and you have the Rams winning, or I should say
you have the Rams had appreciating appreciating those two points.
So it's pretty close. This is just to me, would
be a stay away, correct um. I Also, there's nothing

(28:42):
about this game that is super certain, which is it's
the way we want them. Wouldn't it be great? Face
and drink is almond milk. It was the play by
play of that would incredible. I should have been on
that story. It was. It was a stinky face. Um
so in Saints win and the Models, Saints mostly score
here thirty to twenty nine, which means I don't have

(29:03):
a strong kind of feeling leaning either way. And the
point total here is huge, and the key number is sixty,
and I really have an under in that. But it's
only like half the time. So again, these close games,
it's it could easily sway in either direction, but sixties huge,
and a I'm going to tell you that the reason
why the Staints come out ahead is because if you

(29:26):
look at so, the next gen stat will show you
that Drew Brees has been under pressure the least of
any quarterback. And I will push back and say that, yes,
that's true. But part of the reason that that's happened
is because he gets the ball out of his hands
so quickly, which the next gent stat will also back up.
It's two point five five seconds is the average time
to hold, which is the quickest in the NFL, meaning

(29:47):
he's using shorter paths to get out of trouble. Alvin Kamara,
thank you very much. So ultimately, the way that you
kind of counterbalance the fact that you're gonna be having
sue and you know, Aaron Donald, who is the best
in the league, and then maybe probably Dante Fowler too.
I mean, I haven't seen anything saying he's for sure playing,
but it's very likely that he's playing. But if you
have this pressure coming at you very quickly, just get

(30:10):
the ball out of your hands quickly and let him go.
I'm I'm doing I'm doing a bad thing that a
partner does, and that is um not bringing something up
without giving you a house up. You can bring up anything.
You're fine. Did you did you plug in? No, Marcus Davenport,
your model? Okay, did did that? How much of that change?
Because just as someone who doesn't know what his stats
are and and just kind of seeing him a little bit,

(30:30):
he is damn impressive. I mean, that is a load
to account for. How long you see him double teams,
a lot on the edge, A lot of tight ends
are staying in to chip him. UM. And the fact
that he's not going to be part of this, I
think it's probably a pretty big deal. It is. Um.
The reason that it's so, it obviously switched things, but

(30:51):
the reason that it didn't completely screw it up. Flip
it to the rams side. I see what you're saying,
and there isn't that a completely didn't flip the winner
is still because you still have a lot of pressures
coming from a lot of different directions, and Cam Jordan's
has been very disruptive in prior games especially, it's really
so Jared Goff. The interesting thing here, I'm gonna your

(31:14):
Jared Goff has thrown the most interceptions on third down
in the league. Say that again, Jared Goff most's got
five on the year, so I would imagine that means
all five were probably on third down. So what you're
saying is is if you can make Todd on drive
to Todd Gurley wasn't kind of as effective. If they've
been able to account like account for Todd Gurley, then

(31:36):
you're going to have a harder time to keep Jared
Goff able to complete those passes right like, so under pressure,
there's a lot of things. Cam's gonna match up against
Andrew Witworth, who we love Andrew Wittworth on this podcast,
But that stinks for for Jared Goff because that's a
force to be reckoned with. And then in addition to that,
the Saints run defense is excellent, and even with Marcus

(31:57):
Davenport out, the fact that that they likely had that
they can slow Todd Gurley down down enough to get
into third downs where it's not great for Jared Goff.
That's what keeps everything in the in the side where
I'm at. On Jared Goff last week, I was not
impressed at all. I thought that was a Sean McVeigh game. Um,
golf just wasn't. If you watched that game, he wasn't great.

(32:17):
He just wasn't really accurate. He was missing a lot
of open throws. Uh he was, it seemed like he was.
He felt pressure when it wasn't there. Um, and it
became a Todd Gurley game. And and as you know,
all of them are just yeah, I think. But but
you know, for whatever reason, if you look at the
splits face throwing it way too much considering what he's
gotten Gurley. Um, and late in that game, on that

(32:39):
last drive before they they just settled for that field
goal instead of trying to push for a touchdown. I
remember saying too that, you know the group that I
was in, I said, man, this is this has got
golf interception written all over it. As shaky as he's been,
the pressure has been good and sure enough credit McVeigh.
He's like whatever, I'm just running the ball. I'll kick
the field goal. I got of the best kickers in

(33:00):
the league. I'll take a one point lead and that's
good enough for me. And it worked out thanks to
Tom Montgomery. But I make justus to see in this
one because God's gonna have to probably throw it that
this is gonna be. I think, like you said, it's
a big number, but it's a number that can be had.
Um at least so anyway, although no you don't think
it can be had. You've got under sixty. So yeah,
I mean tiny bit, like very very I think we

(33:23):
we said it. Stay away, all right. Bucket panthers, joy it.
That's what it's there for. Bucks it panthers. Wow, I
am so not with you on this. It's a touchdown
Carolina by a touchdown. Oh, I think this was one
of my wins last week, by the way, it was, Yeah,
there we go, but I didn't pick the buck. Do
you have a do you have a panther sound effect
in their shoppy Well, we just got one that was panthers.

(33:48):
I'm riding I'm riding the hot paw seeing not the
hot hand and riding the hot paw of the Panthers.
A little literation there, right, Why why do you have
the Bucks? I don't have the Bucks winning and I
have the Panthers winning. What I'm saying, I do know
what you're saying, um two reasons one it's Patrick? Yeah,
So did you know that this matchup, and this is

(34:09):
what the model flags is being a closer game than
one touchdown? Do you know who the number one and
number two worst red zone touchdown? Okay, worst and second worst?
So thirty two ranked thirty two and thirty one. I'm
gonna go Titans and uh Raiders. Okay, So the Bucks

(34:33):
are thirty two, the Panthers are thirty one. Thanks a
lot for that, your terrible partner, that would you do
that to me? Because jerky jerk. So we have the
thirty two and thirty one worsts. The Panthers defense doesn't
allow many opposing teams to get into the red zone
very often, but when they do, they can score. Ultimately,
the chaos and the ability for Ryan Fitzpatrick to create

(34:57):
some chaos on against the Panthers defense is really what
drives this closer than expected game. But it is an
overwhelming win for the Panthers sixty five point one percent
of the time in the model, the Panthers win it.
But when it comes to when it comes to you
know how, by how much it's it's going to be
a bit closer. And by the way, Cam Newton averaging

(35:19):
eight point nine rushing attempts per game, pretty impressive, right,
has twenty four first downs. Marcus Mario to take four
first downs, and there are only eleven running backs who
have more first downs on their feet like on the
ground than Cam Newton. It is, uh, it's a different
way to play quarterback, but it is an effective way.

(35:40):
It shows quarterback. Yeah, um, no question about it. Yeah.
And I just think they're a considerably better team. Well
you know what, so I will spoil it again, so
does my projections for the future. Oh there you go,
a little peace, little action, all right. We in the
business call it tea. So we differ there. I uh
And by the way, I'm to going the Saints big.

(36:01):
You're taking the Saints big? No, but but I'm taking them.
Uh you know what, I'm bigger than yes, got it?
You you know what I'm saying. All right, Jets at Dolphins,
we kind of already touched on this a little bit earlier.
Anything that we missed, and this one. You have a
total of fort which seems high to me. The no,

(36:23):
it's under that. Yeah, no, I'm saying that that seems high.
So yeah, yeah, yeah, with that's a big agreement there,
so we're correct. So the reason that the Dolphins squeak
a one point win out against the Jets, so I
have one in my model, Dolphins wint one point three
percent of the time. This is not certain at all,

(36:45):
But the reason that they do is because the Jets
o line has gotten pushed back so much that it
is messed with Sam donald a ton, meaning that it's
got nothing. I mean, he's got poor care. Absolutely, Like,
here's some here's some good things for the future. They
have about a hundred million in cap space coming up
next season's gonna be able to buy a whole old line.

(37:05):
They can buy some receivers. You know, here's an offensive
player for you. Here's it's like, Oprah, here's an offensive
player for you. Right there, you go. Here's a receiver,
here's a back, here's a receiver, here's the back. Here
are two tackles, here's a guard. All of those things.
But in the meantime. But in the meantime, it's gonna
be a boring game too. Yeah, I would agree, Bears
it Bills. Speaking of boring games, I don't know if

(37:27):
I think this one's as boring. Okay, well, let's see
the Bears. The number is Bears by nine, the total
is thirty seven. That seems like a pretty bad game
to me, because one team's gonna win, one team is
gonna four to three. Is how that is that? How
that points out there? You go, Okay, so that's awfully generous. Okay.

(37:49):
Who's playing quarterback for the Bills, Nate Peterman. I'm sick
of ragging on them. Let's say I agree, I understand,
but guess what, they're not good. I didn't say that that.
The Bills fans are so set right now, like we're
a lot better than you're giving us credit for. No,
you're not the astwer. That is, no, you're not. I'm sorry,
you're just not. That defense is not good. And now

(38:10):
they're you know, it's even more impacted with the loss
of Tremaine Edmonds, you know, who is one of their
brighter stars. He's young and he's making mistakes, but man,
he's good. Watching them run around out there and he's gone.
So sorry. Yeah, I mean, look, I can say a
lot of nice things about the Bears. I told you
Try is gonna score a touchdown as possible. Jordan Howard
also does too, but Try Cohen has the higher percentage
chance per the model um when it comes to and

(38:33):
obviously the Bears defense, we have a billion nice things
to say about them as well. But one nice thing
I'll say about a Bill's player. I like Lorenzo Alexander
and what because this game, this team, the Bills are
super young. I think it's something like like they have
like the most players who've been drafted in the past
four seasons on their team compared to the rest of

(38:53):
the league. So they're super young, super inexperienced. They've got
a lot of quarterback questions. And really they're line is
what I would say, the first place they need to
maybe consider upgrading right to help their quarterback out. And
not good. Yeah, no, it's definitely. Line is not good. Uh,
the defensive front is not good. The Lorenzo Alexander's good.

(39:15):
Lorenzo's good. He's just you know, he switched. Frens is
getting little old, but he but you know what. Last
season they switched the defensive bass and he's actually adapted
really well. They change that or trying to find something,
and I like people coming at me like, what about
what about Matt Mallon? What about Jordan's port? What about
Jordan pot I means white like white. I'll give you
that positive here, I'll give you that. That's but anyway anyway, alright,

(39:38):
so I like fans, though I'm trying to like. I
love Mafia, love Bill's Mafia. I love Park. I had
a great time when we were there earlier this season.
And I like the the wings. Do you like the wings? Joy?
The wings? All right, here we go. We like to
call these stray dogs. Wow, no one sounds like a
rabid dog. The Seahawks are favored by point and a

(40:00):
half over the Chargers up with the clink uh total
forty seven and a half. Your model says, what that
the Bolts win twenty three, the Chargers winning in fifty
five point two and have the Charges with a little
bit of an advantage in sixty four point three charge
plus a head start in sixty four point three. I
think the Chargers, maybe because you saw the Seahawks beast

(40:22):
so dominant against the Raiders. You mean against the Lions
last Lions last weeks week before the Raiders, I don't know.
But then they're playing at home and then the Charges
that they were in London, and then they maybe people
forgot that they're still playing really well. I'm not sure
why that this is. It's probably because there's Seattle's at home.
But ultimately the what the model says about this one

(40:43):
is that the small ball factor. So those six defense
but I went back and watched every singles. Now, the
way they use thirty one and thirty three kind of
inner change phillips yep. So Derwin James, thirty three that's
the one to watch um the way they use him
sometimes press sometimes like the different sort of coverages and
schemes that they can create with Derwin James and thirty one.
So three that's the tutor to really like watch their

(41:06):
usage of that's been creating this like horrible mismatch in
the passing game and in the favor of the Chargers,
So that really thwarts that. Now you have to also
take into consideration that the Seahawks over the past four
games have been like the second leading rusher in that's
the problem with that six defensive back, which has kind
of become their base with that it is you know

(41:27):
it was last year because they could get away with
Russian four with Bosa. Without Bosa, it can get it
can get both come back problems. I'd feel a lot
better about this game for the Chargers if Bosa we're back, Um,
just because you have to account for Russell Wilson and
Bosa is so good at ceiling and edge and not
allowing a quarterback to get out and get after you.

(41:48):
I'd be a little nervous about this game for the Bolts, um,
just because Russell can do that and they're running so well,
they're running so well. But but here's gonna tell you.
You ran really well against the Lions. Oh whoop do do?
But he runs really well against Live You ran really
well against what the Raiders? The Raiders? What does everyone
due to the Raiders raided tonight? Right, So those numbers
get inflated much in the same way we're like, look

(42:10):
at that Ravens win when they beat them by four
hundred points, Like, don't you know over like it is
a great stat for the Seahawks, But it's it's not
a I don't believe it yet. I mean I believe it.
I don't. I'm not. I hope you're right. I'll leave
it at that. I think I think that's a big
one for the for the Chargers. They're they're on this
four game win streak. It's a four game win streak
against the forty Niners, the Raiders, the Browns. Win. You

(42:32):
can only play the teams on your sale beat. You
beat the Rams or you beat the Niners. It doesn't matter,
still counts the win. But that's why I think this
is a big one. Um, it's gonna be raining, it's
gonna be cold. It's a team from southern California. They
always bring that up, and I think, I think understandably.
So you know, you're not used to dealing with elements
in practice every single day. You've got seven degrees with

(42:54):
no wind um, and now all of a sudden, you
got a deal with is why we live here exactly. Um,
So this is gonna be very talent game, I think.
Um for the Chargers, if they do this, I think
you can start having that conversation about being in that
elite three or four teams in the a f C
that has a legitimate chance to rep them in the
Super Bowl? Is that confidence you get? Three? Um, I'll

(43:16):
just I'll stay away, you know. I think that's the
polite thing to do, because obviously I take them, and
I'm a homer, which is understood. I don't take I'm
a jerk. No, alright, so you want my three confidence?
I do? What are they? All? Right? So? Sleepy game
in Miami is number one? I think that the I
like this Washington to win, that to Washington to win

(43:38):
by more than one points over the Falcons. Over the Falcons,
I think that Dallas is the winner, and I think
it's by more than six or seven or six points.
And I wish I could disagree with you. I like
all of those though, Oh that means they're gonna be bad,
not spicy enough, not one that's like a little spicier. Then,
um no, that's fine. I just know normally I pushed back.

(44:00):
Can I like disagreeing with you on things so we
can see who comes out of head, which is always you?
But no, I mean it's more fun. We don't. Okay, fine, alright,
I guess we we agree disagree on other things. But
and now we can get to what you have teased
this entire podcast. Uh, what do we got playoff odds
the teams that are in the postseason as it stands
right now, let's get rid of the boring ones. First,

(44:22):
Rams boring probability of making it right, I don't even
it's like higher than that. The big thing for the
Rams is are they when? When? If it's going to happen. Look,
if they lose this week, you know they're now lost.
The tie bracker have lost the tiebreaker to the Saints
and would have to go on the road in the

(44:43):
Dome if everything holds to try to get to the
super Bowl. It's a huge game this week for the Rams.
This one's a giant have has giant implications because if
the road to the super Bowl, so I run the
playoff odds as well. If the road to the super
Bowl runs through Southern California, or if the road to
the super Bowl runs through New Orleans, that's a huge difference.

(45:04):
I mean, breeze and the Dome is almost unbeatable. Breeze
on the road very beatable. So alright, so Southern California,
the Southern California weather is kind of like a dome,
but but it's not turf. It's grass, and it's pretty
crappy grass at the Colisseum by the way. Okay, so
it looks horrible, especially when they when we were there

(45:25):
for that game against it and did you watch that
one yesterday with the yesterday last Sunday with the Packers.
That looks you can still see the sc on the field. Anyways, Saints, Okay,
makes okay, here's where it gets a little spices. You
got it? Number three? You're ready ready, I'm ready for
Minnesota fans to come at me. Packers? What right after

(45:46):
trading what Clinton dis Yeah, well, they're only a game
out of first place. Look at their schedule though they
have if you look at that one stinks. They've got
Miami at Seattle at Vicings, Cardinals, Falcons, Bears, Jets, Lions.
It's pretty good, right. So they have a third place schedule,

(46:06):
third place schedule from last season, and it's like, come on, guys,
and the right one three three and one and their
third place schedule and their secondary has gotten considerably better.
And I don't know, they just lost Hunt Clinton Dix,
but I think they'll be able to account for it.
They must know something we don't write, like, I can't
believe they would they would do that without without kind
of thinking it through, right right, And then number four

(46:29):
winner of the NFC East, the Philadelphia Eagles. I think
it's it's it's hard to push back against that quirant
eight getting here's your trivia, this would be the first
repeat winner of the NFC East since two thousand and four. Yeah,
that's good stuff there. Okay, So you have them at
fifty and let's go with your two wild cards Panthers.

(46:52):
I like that fifty three and a half percent, and
then the Chicago Bears fifty one point one now, and
then the Redskins are right on their texts with that's
not even two percent different, or not even it's point
two percent different, Washington Redskins. They're just on just on
the outside looking. So the thing about the NFC North
is it really doesn't drop off until after that nine spots,

(47:13):
so goes Redskins, Viking Seahawks, and then number ten. The
real drop off happens at the Cowboys, who are really,
you know, for all intents and purposes, fifteen point five
percent simulations right now they come out in the playoffs.
So it's it's if you want the full list, you
can go to nfl dot Com slash Freeland and it
has my my full article on every single team. But
that's kind of that's kind of where net I'm pushing

(47:34):
back on the Bears do it. Yep, I'm saying they're
out and either the Vikings or the Redskins. All right,
I'm just looking at that Bear schedule. Yeah, they get
Buffalo this week. They still have to play Minnesota twice.
They still have to play Green That's I got you.
I'm with you, and they still have to play the Ramps.
So I'm not I'm not disagreeing with I think that
ends up being and I think that ends up being
an eight and eight team, even though they're have eight

(47:55):
point nine wins. Is people get mad about the point
nine wins. It's like, come on, guys, like round whatever. Alright,
let's go to the a f C. All right, let's
do it boring once. First Kansas City Chance, got it, okay,
boring Patriots Chance, also boring Houston Texans uh, and then

(48:17):
the Baltimore Ravens. Jeremy I picked the Ravens to win
the North in the at the start of the season.
Well aren't you just to prognostics? Well, and now now
I'm taking the Steelers to beat them and take control
of that as well. Look at number five, Chargers are
five and then Steelers are sixth. So I'm not overwhelmingly
giving it's one point two percent different than it's Ravens

(48:38):
versus Steelers, and that comes down to just a few
key games. In fact that this week, this game could
be the difference maker between who wins and who um
is getting that wild card position. And the Jags are
just on the outside. Same with the Bengals. So I'm
with you eight teams. I am right in step with
all of those. I think the Chiefs when the Division Pats,
when the Division Texans, when the Division, I would just

(48:58):
flip the Steelers in over the Ravens to win the division.
The Chargers Ravens get the wild cards. The Bengals are
the interesting one there. The Bengals are I mean, they
have a bye this week, but then you just look,
they got New Orleans, They've got Baltimore, They've got the Chargers,
They've still got Pittsburgh left that just you know, they
have a really hard schedule. Cincinnati fans, I think I
hate them, and that's actually not the case at all.

(49:20):
It's more that they have a horrible schedule because they
outplayed their bad You know, they didn't get a good
schedule this season because they played two well last season.
So that in the a f C North, the where
you played, the position you played in last season matters
a ton that gosh, that's tough though. I'm almost I'm
just not into what the Ravens are doing lately. Um
and I know that's a tough game against the Panthers

(49:40):
last week. I see, yeah, they win this week. I
mean the Bengals at five and three. I'm not saying
I hate the Bengal No, I'm just trying to look
at how close it is. It's one point, it's different.
I'm just looking at the Baltimore remaining schedule. They still
got the Chargers, they still have the Chiefs. They do
have the benefit of getting the Browns, the Raiders, the Falcons,
the box. One of those teams has to has to

(50:02):
get the ten wins. The did the Bengals get five
or do the can the Ravens close out six and two?
My model obviously prefers. So what the Ravens have going
on with a compliment, they're actually the Ravens and the
Bengals aren't that dissimilar in terms of team construct. It's
just that whereas the Bengals don't have the secondary help

(50:23):
and they can, they have a lot more penalties that
really influence wins in that one. That's really the kind
of tiny little difference maker. But the marginal difference is
like five percent. Seven might get you in as a
wild card, I'm telling you, and my model says. My
model says Steelers eight point nine, Bengals eight point seven,
so bring it. And then, by the way, Ravens nine.

(50:45):
So the net difference between those is point three games
between the first and third place in the NFC North
right point three, So you're fine. It's either the Bengs
probably comes down to that head to head in week ten,
I think is when they Wick eleven. They face off there.
So two weeks we got all right? Good stuff? Is
that it? Yeah, we're done, We're done good, We're out
of here. We'll be back again next week to recap

(51:07):
all the great stuff Cynthia did and got right on
the Game Theory and Money podcast. To big thank you,
Sean Shopping, Mark Brady and everybody that helps us out
with this one, and especially our friends over at Google
and g suite, because boy, is that a great little
tool we have