March 28, 2025 • 36 mins
Daniel Jeremiah and Bucky Brooks discuss the recent trend of high-profile players skipping out on certain pre-draft test like the 40-yard dash. What does it mean for teams and scouts when they have to rely more on tape and less on measurables?
Then DJ and Bucky review the receivers in this year’s draft class and explain why they don’t think any of them are true number one receivers. They also discuss whether any of the mid-round quarterbacks could be game changes in the NFL.
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Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
And now move the sticks with Daniel Jeremiah and Bucky Brooks.
Speaker 2 (00:08):
What's up, everybody? Welcome to move the sticks? DJ, Buck
with you?
Speaker 1 (00:12):
Buck? Did you take in Opening Day Baseball? Did you
watch it? Or are you going to kind of ease
and ease into it? I didn't notice that the Dodgers one,
but I didn't. I can't say that I watched it
from beginning. It just kind of checked in. So Shoneo
Tani do what he does. One or three guys they
hit a homer. So yeah, excited about it? Now you
The bigger thing is are you gonna speak too soon?
(00:32):
You always get super excited the month of April May,
you're really into it. Then you begin to kind of
fade and fizzle for a little bit in June. You
pick it back up a little bit in July, and
then depending on how the pods are doing. I don't
know who's DJ I'm gonna get come on against in
sip Jim. I'll be honest with you.
Speaker 2 (00:51):
I got a text message from our buddy Chris Rose.
Speaker 1 (00:54):
It was like, hey, what do you expect this year?
Speaker 2 (00:56):
And I was like, you know, I'm gonna set my
expectations just five hundred.
Speaker 1 (00:59):
Keep our excitations this year, just.
Speaker 2 (01:01):
Five bundred because but Bucky always, Bucky always tells me
that I get too excited. So I said, not this year.
I'm gonna just go. And and last year we had
a great year. I think we're the second best team
in baseball. But we you know, so we had we
have a really good team. But I'm gonna get let's
lower expectations, not get ahead of myself.
Speaker 1 (01:17):
So what happened.
Speaker 2 (01:18):
We faced Chris Sale, the raining Cy Young Award winner yesterday,
knock him around the yard and win. And I'm like,
we're gonna We're gonna wine hundred games.
Speaker 1 (01:25):
Like, let's go.
Speaker 2 (01:28):
It just took one day.
Speaker 1 (01:29):
It just took one day. I'm in, I'm all in
one day, and you're you're automatic all the way back
in again. It's a disease, Buck, it's a disease. It
can't help, but it's just a disease. It's so hard,
Like I feel so bad. I feel so bad for
you because you this is what you do all the time.
And then ultimately, like your little heart is broken at
(01:50):
the end, and it's sad, it's not it's not fun
seeing you like this.
Speaker 2 (01:55):
Yep, no it's it's it's, it is what it is.
But I'm I'm I'm all in on the pods right now.
I am excited about the calendar getting ready to flip though,
because we're almost to April, and that means, man, the
draft is really really creeping up on us. I got
a couple of things I want to hit on today
with you, Buck, including I want to get into your
top vibes a little bit. And I want to know
(02:16):
because I feel like I've kind of told you some
of the ones that I'm struggling with. I'd love to
know like maybe two or three different two or three
different struggles that you got on your list. So we'll
get to that in a minute. But before we do that,
I had this conversation the other day talking to a coach.
Brought up a great point, and I don't know what
the numbers are. It's like, I don't know close to
(02:37):
half of the top pass rushers, the top twelve to
fifteen pass rushers are not going to record forties. They
did not run at the Combine and they're not running
at Pro days, so there's no forties.
Speaker 1 (02:49):
And when we were.
Speaker 2 (02:50):
Talking about and he said, look like some for some
positions like GPS you can take those those numbers.
Speaker 1 (02:56):
And you can find value in that.
Speaker 2 (02:59):
And he was like, I can't, like, for an edge rusher,
the numbers that they have going off of NFL players,
He's all are so wonky because you might like, like
Jared Verse had one of the one of the best
GPS numbers of any defensive end. Well he's chasing Sakuon
Barkley forty yards down the field. Yeah, like that's where
that number comes from. So whereas some of the other
(03:21):
guys who you know are real explosive for eighteen miles
per hour. So he's like, for evaluating these guys using
GPS numbers doesn't really help them. And he was he
was saying that there's you know, they do some force
plate jumps at the combine, so they've used those more.
Now even just you have the vertical number that you get,
(03:41):
but the force plate to really see how explosive these
guys are. You're trying to find creative ways to, you know,
to be able to put these guys on a level
playing field and see what the what the numbers tell you.
Speaker 1 (03:54):
So now this is hard, and this is hard because
depending on you school board, depending on how you're reared
in the business. You're now going to have to test
some of the philosophies and ideologies that many of us
have talked about for years, and you really trust the
tape without the workouts or the measurements or the things
(04:18):
kind of backing you up or validating some of your opinions.
So when we talk about players, particularly past rushers, we
can talk about first step quickness, elite burst in those things,
and a lot of times we can validate that by
looking at their ten time or looking at some of
the agility shuttles or three cone or any of those
other measurements that we like to use to kind of say, oh,
(04:40):
I can rubber stamp it because what I saw on
tape has been matched on what they did in the workout.
Where it gets tricky is depending on the level of competition.
Guys blowing past people on the snap and those things.
Are we having true apples to apples discussions When we
may look at a Mike Green play in one conference
(05:04):
versus somebody else who is playing in the SEC against
presumably presumably better tackles and blockers in those things, that's
where it comes into play, because is there gonna be
a natural bias when we're trying to factor a set
of players from one area versus a set of players
from another area who may not have as many matchups
(05:26):
against premier players.
Speaker 2 (05:30):
Well, I think that helps, you know, when you have
these guys that go to the Senior Bowl. Because you
mentioned Mike Green, like, okay, well I got to watch
Mike Green go one on one, you know, a couple
of days at the Senior Bowl against some of the
better tackle prospects in the draft, including the famous rep
against Connery that you know made the rounds.
Speaker 1 (05:48):
Or you got a chance to see how explosive he was.
Speaker 2 (05:51):
So you've got that Ezaku from from Boston College was
another one that was there. Alanna Jackson was there from Arkansas,
had a big game. Like you got a chance to
at least see those guys in person and uh and
see them move around. I know Alane Jackson ended up
burning a forty, but you uh, you know, at least
you got a chance to see it. Feel like the
Ohio State guys, I almost wonder, you know, like that
(06:13):
that Ohio State Pro Day was very heavily attended and
even though I don't think either one of them ran
forties jtt or Jack Sawyer, So that they're two that
aren't going to have a forty time out there, but
to get a chance to work them out and at
least feel them, you know, kind of feel their their
their bursts and their and their juice.
Speaker 1 (06:29):
I mean, that's old school scoutings what it is. Yeah,
And so what I think the trick will be is
when you started having the positional workouts, if you can
bake some things into the workout that'll allow you to
assess how fast guys are. I think ultimately what you
have is a meeting of the minds between coaches and
(06:50):
the scouts to figure out what can we put them through.
What is the one drill that we can put everybody
that we work out through. Then maybe we can have
a scout time on the side that allows us to
have comparables when we go to talk talk about these guys. Okay,
jack So did this and this drill. Lenn and Jackson
(07:10):
did this in the same drill. So now we can
have some subtle things that we can line up. But
we knew it was a matter of time when these
guys started opting out of workouts and forties and those
things that we as evaluators, we were going to be
tested where we really have to hang on what we
always say, did we do trust the tape, Trust the tape,
(07:30):
Trust the tape? Well, now you gotta trust a tape. Yeah, no,
it's one hundred percent true.
Speaker 2 (07:36):
And it's become literally it's become a buffet of I
want to do Okay, I'll do the three cone, but
I'm not gonna do I'm not gonna do the jumps. Well,
I'm not going to run, I'll do the positional drills.
Like it's just kind of become a buffet in the spring.
Whereas it used to be you could almost I think
scouts could almost kind of bully guys and be like, hey,
you're the only one in this group that's not doing
something like we're not taking you. You told you always
(07:57):
tell a story about Lindell White on you like those
those days are over, man Like it is like in
terms of like player empowerment, like that's that's one area
from a scouting side of things that we've seen massive change,
you know, a one not having their guys take the
(08:17):
cognitive tests after you know, the CJ. Stroud stuff, so
like you know you're you're You're get to the point
now where it's like, man, you better get out and
do your homework in the fall. Get out and see
these guys, go to some live games and see them
move around and see them do things, and give yourself
a little bit a better opportunity there, because if you're
banking on getting all this information in the spring, I
(08:40):
don't know, I don't know that those days are ever
coming back.
Speaker 1 (08:42):
DJ is. Look, it's gonna make it. It's gonna make it
really really hard to get your work done. So you're
really gonna have to get out there. You have to
trust Grand Coach, Like relationships are gonna matter more now
than ever. Like one of the things that you and
I have always done are a good friend who's Felman
puts out the Freaks List. So what it does It
(09:03):
gives you like a little preview of the super explosive
athletes that you need to pay attention to in the fall.
And then when they put together great years, you can
always go back and reference the Freaks List because you
have the numbers that they've compiled high they going to
jump and do those things. It is it's gonna become trickier. So,
for instance, I was just having a conversation with a
(09:24):
colleague about gam Scatterboo from Arizona State. Well, I love
as a player, right, just absolutely love how he gets
down to whatever his pro day comes. Hey, I give
you a vertical thirty nine and a half. I'll give
you a broad gymp in three. Hey we need that
forty seven. Yeah, I'm a pat. And so now you
have to make the assessment, Well, how fast do we
(09:47):
think he is? You know, like, what how much does
it matter? I'm looking at him in comparison to the
other guys on the list, Like where do I stack
him based on the information that I have. I love
the player on but I don't have all the other things.
So where I have a junkins run this, and I
have other guys run that. Where that factor is And
(10:09):
so for the prospect it's a bit of the roll
of the dice saying to hey, everyone can't be mad
at me for not putting up a forty. I just
need to have one team that love me and hopefully
it doesn't impact my round value. But it makes it
a very difficult thing. And we say we don't want
to hold it against players, but man, you just remember
where how it is spring with me. We tried to
(10:29):
complete the profile. Hey, Buck, you don't have Hey, you
don't have a forty input it in the computer. We
need you to get out there and run. Hey he said,
he's not running. Yeah, but we can't put a final
grade on it if we don't have the forty. Those
days are done. I mean, you're really testing those old
(10:50):
theories that we talk about, like really grading off the
tape in those things. And you have some guys that
disappoint you when you see him show up for that
first mini camp and they run nothing like you expect
them to run.
Speaker 2 (11:02):
Yeah, it's interesting discussion, man, it's and I think people think,
I think it's very easy to say, you just watch
the tape, and who cares the tapes? All that matters,
Like the tape is by far the most important thing,
but that other stuff when you're trying to level out
an account for competition, who you're playing against and things,
and that doesn't necessarily have to be a big school
small thing, small school thing. You could be in a
(11:24):
power for conference and you might only play against you know,
you might be a corner who's only playing against two
or three receivers the whole year that can really run
and guess what those games you might be playing off,
So I don't I've never really seen you get tested,
like can I line you up? Nose knows no one
you can carry a vertical route like, I don't know
if you can run like that. So it does matter,
(11:45):
It does matter. So that's why it becomes very, very challenging.
Speaker 1 (11:49):
Yeah, it becomes a challenge. And all these things only
become more challenging. And so the one thing that I
do know about scouts and evaluator is like, look, we're adaptable,
will adjust, but it makes it hard, particularly in doing
some of the things that we love to do. Right,
So we all everyone keeps a log in a history, right,
I've seen you reference your sequence list when we talk
(12:11):
about one player and trying to compare him to another
player two three years ago, to be like, hey, you
know this player three or four years ago, he did this,
ran this time, and look at the success that he's
having at a pro now. It makes it harder when
we're kind of like building the case to support our
player in a meeting, It makes it harder because I
(12:31):
can't do that. I can say, oh, he ran for
two thousand yards, but yeah, but we's is forty time
E coach, I don't have that. Well, well, how do
we know if he's going to survive? What are the
superpowers that he brings to the table that's going to
enable him to replicate that success as a pro. It
just makes it more difficult to be able to make
some of these arguments when you have Prospect A and
(12:51):
Prospect B with similar grades. But I have an incomplete
prospect incomplete profile on Prospect B.
Speaker 2 (12:59):
Yeah, and the other thing that we'll see. But we'll
see how this all transpires. A couple guys out there,
there's definitely theories around the league too, which is, you know,
this is how you get to the process without running,
you don't work out, not healthy, got a little nagging injury.
So we're going to reschedule a pro day for middle
to you know, middle to the early part of the
(13:21):
twenties of you know, a week before the draft, right,
So you're gonna say the fourteenth, fifteen, somewhere in there.
So I'm gonna have a late pro day and guess
what magically happens at that late pro day? A little
bit tight. I'm gonna do the position drills, but not
gonna I'm not gonna run a forty like that is
the that is like right out of the playbook of
how you get away with not running a forty these days.
Speaker 1 (13:40):
Oh so that may sound like a guy that I'm
writing about today, Will Johnson or Michigan who may not
ever record anything of significance when it comes to his
athletics stuff. And now we're led to just focus solely
on what he has done. And it's funny because what
complicates the Will Johnson and evaluation because he's someone who
(14:01):
hasn't worked at and run DJ. He's had injuries and
two of the last three seasons that it's kept him
out of games. And so now I not only I
don't have testing, but I have a durability concern based
on what we know to be true. He has missed
games in each of the past two seasons. It just
makes it hard some of the guys that you love
(14:23):
on tape you can't fully take a stand on because
you're like, man, am I missing something? Is there something
that's gonna come back to bite me? When we bring
him in the building and he works out for the
first time and you're like, oh, yeah, that doesn't that
doesn't look good because you can't have I don't have
a time.
Speaker 2 (14:43):
You know, I'm going through this list and I'm like
just just going through a mock draft, right, so from
like my last mock draft, I'm trying to find the
first player who had a full process, right that we
actually saw in an All Star game as well, So you.
Speaker 1 (14:56):
Know who, you know who it is. It's Grey's Able.
Speaker 2 (15:00):
Wow, Gray's Abel was my I had him going sixteen
in this in this mock craft, Mike Green is is
right there with him. But I don't think Mike Green,
I don't think he ran a forty.
Speaker 1 (15:10):
Did he?
Speaker 2 (15:10):
I don't think he ran a forty. He just did
the I think he just did the cone drills. So,
I mean, there are not many guys that had a
full process that you got all the way through. He
saw him in the fall, maybe saw in an All
Star game and you saw him do a full workout
where you saw everything. So I don't know, that's interesting.
(15:31):
It just and that used to.
Speaker 1 (15:32):
Not be the case.
Speaker 2 (15:32):
It used to be you'd have half the first round
were full process guys where you saw go kind of
through the whole thing. So it's just different. It's different
time you got to just there's nothing to complain about.
It is what it is, all right, Buck, let's say
quick break, we come back. I want to get into
some of these debates here after this all right sign
(15:53):
for Hot or Not, brought to you by Wasabi Hot
Cloud Storage. Buck top fives that you got out there.
I've had my struggles with some of these battles here.
Give me give me your top three battles that you've
had of of difficulty. They're trying to stack guys a
different pace.
Speaker 1 (16:10):
So I'm gonna say, DJ, let's go to the pass
catcher thing, right, the wide receivers. And the reason the
struggle for me has has has kept me up at
night is really trying to figure out like, not only
how do we set the pecking order, but which guys
are truly wide receiver ones and which guys do we
(16:30):
need to project as wide receiver twos. So at the
top of my board, and we've had the conversation about
t mac McMillan, Matthew Golden, Amika Abuka, Luther Burden, and
right now I still have Isaiah Bond hanging at five.
But DJ, when I look at all of these guys,
right I can't say that any of them project in
(16:51):
terms of like their overall skill set as a true
number one. Maybe team matt or no one does that
like Matthew Golden. If you ask me in an ideal world,
what's his position? And as we talked about the basketball
team analogie, he's the number two. He's the stretch to field.
He's the other guy opposite the dominant pass catcher or
(17:12):
whatever I mean. Kay Buka plays in the slot. Luther
Burden is more like the Deebo Samuel kind of do
everything run option routes. Give it to them on fly
sweeps and those things like DJ. If I am a
team in need of a true classic number one to
anchor the passing game, I can't confidently say that I'm
gonna get one in this draft. And this is the
(17:32):
first time in how many years, five, six, seven years
that there hasn't been that established guy or two that
we can say, Hey, if I need a wide receiver,
that's the guy that I'm gonna go get that. To me,
that's problematic and it's one of the reasons why in
my draft we may only see two guys on the board. Yeah.
Speaker 2 (17:53):
I got a text from Kurt Warner who's going through
watching all these guys right now. And he was asking
me about Golden and he was like, and I infer
because I had Golden as my top receiver. And he said,
do you think really think Golden is a number one?
And I wrote back and I said, there are no
number ones in this draft. Like to me, they're all
twos and there are different flavors they're twos, but there
(18:15):
the draft is full of twos and threes. Like, that's
not what this that's not what you're getting here, you know.
You know, Marvin Harrison coming out last year was viewed
as a one. Neighbors viewed as a one, a dooonese.
For me definitely was viewed as a one. Like there
was there were guys and even like Ady Mitchell, like
if he were to hit his ceiling, would would be
a one. Obviously you saw in Jacksonville. That's a number
(18:37):
one all day long. So I mean, that's not this draft.
It's not this draft, man. It's you're trying to get
guys that are going to be solid players that you're
not going to have to replace, that are going to
be key guys for you, but they're not going to
be the We always talk about it from this standpoint
of like the game plan guys defensively where you're like,
(18:58):
oh crap, you better circle this dude. We got to
stop him. Like that's not this draft man, not at
the receiver position.
Speaker 1 (19:04):
It's not. And you know it's funny because, like Kurt
Warner would have a strong take on that, particularly this year,
because there isn't the one guy that can do everything
that is expected of the number one receiver. And let's
be clear when we talk about the number one receiver,
and by my definition, I would say the number one
receiver is a guy that anchors the passing game. He
(19:24):
commands a double team and consistently beats the double team
because everyone in the building knows that the ball is
going to him on those critical doubts. He's a guy
that I would say, most of the ones that we've
seen that are number ones, they aren't the fastest. He's
the one that typically runs in the range of five
or four, five to four to five to five, but
he gets open and he's a consistent chain mover on
(19:45):
the offense. And when you look at the guys who
have the complete skill set, they are terrific route runners.
They have the patience and time and to get away,
they can get off of pressed. They can do all
those things. Stylistically, they can do it a few different ways,
whether it says a true route runner or a jump
on specialists. But they're the ones that when you show
up on Sundays, everyone knows they're getting the ball and
(20:07):
they continue to get the ball. And so I don't
see any of those unstoppable forces in this draft class.
And that is why DJ, if I'm a team in
need a one, I would probably pass in the first
round on a wide receiver and probably settle in the
second or third round, because honestly, I might get the
same thing that I would get in the first round
(20:28):
in the second and third round based on the lack
of dominant pass catchers in this draft class.
Speaker 2 (20:33):
Yeah, like you say the argument of Okay, I could
take Matthew Golden in the first, or I could take
Noel from Iowa State in the second.
Speaker 1 (20:41):
You know, now I could.
Speaker 2 (20:44):
Take Royals in the third.
Speaker 1 (20:46):
You know, Like, however you want to do it? How
big is the difference? Like how big is the difference
on the grades? Dad? Like they're like, this is no
one day's grade out at a seven h or higher
where you're like, boom, I know for sure exactly what
I'm getting. So if I'm not getting that supplying the man, well,
let me look elsewhere at another position where the value matches,
(21:08):
where we're adding the round and I'm gonna get what
the verbier says I should get with a first round player. Hey,
I'm getting a day one starter. I'm getting an impact player.
I'm getting someone that's gonna change the game for the
next four or five years. And we feel good about Like,
it's hard for me to say that I can put
Dick on the verbiage oh a need of the wide receivers,
and I look, I'm wondered, and I'm probably jaded because
having watched t Mac from the time he's in high school. Yeah,
(21:31):
I can't confidently say that he's gonna come in and
change the game as a big wide receiver already outside.
Speaker 2 (21:36):
Mm hmmm, yeah, well that's the that's the hottest one there.
By the way, we'll get to some more here in
just a second. But that was this week's Hot or
Not segment, brought to you by with Sabi Hot Cloud Storage,
store more and do more with your data. Try them
for free at Withsabi dot com. So if the wide
receiver group is your number one struggle there, buck, what's
what's number two?
Speaker 1 (21:55):
Okay, so number two when I'm gonna say this, and
I probably could have said this number one, i'mna be
honest with you, man, I'm really stuck with all these quarterbacks, right,
I'm stuck because the conversation and it always does this
around draft time, the escalation and the elevation of guys
like a Tyler Scheff, like the conversation like, oh, we're
just gonna get a guy like hey, let's move him up,
(22:16):
like we can pass early and get somebody late in
the second round. That's gonna help us that we can
find a way to do it. Well, here's the reality
that hasn't worked. Like it has. It hasn't worked. It
has Like Jalen Hurts is the only one of the
final eight. It was like a second round there was
a second round player that was in the tournament. Like
(22:39):
it rarely works. And we're talking about the hit rate
in the first round is being forty four percent, Well,
then what is it gonna be when we get out
of the first round When it comes to the hit rate,
So I'm having a tough time where and I know
some of this is influenced because on TV we always
want to talk about the quarterbacks, but like DJ, we
talk about the tears and what's really gonna pop. Look, man,
(23:03):
to me, I think there's a significant drop up. Like,
and I know people like we saw Jackson Dart. You
saw Jackson Jackson Dart at the Senior Ball And I'm
actually a believer that Jackson Dart can be a starter.
But after that, man, I can't sit here and rubber
stamp anybody. But all the grays are bunched together, and
so I'm like, if you're gonna take one, you gotta
take one in the first round, just because that's those
(23:25):
are the ones that POP of these dudes can be like, well,
we're chasing. Because I think it's really important that everyone
views the standard at quarterback based on what's really playing.
And if we use the AFC as an example, And
the reason I say this is because both of us
also have side gigs with AFC teams. Well, when I
(23:45):
look at the AFC and the gauntlet that we have
to run to really win in the AFC, Pat Mahomes,
Josh Allen Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert. I mean
that's just the start, Like, that's just to give yourself
a chance to get into tournament. Bo Nix is now
in the mix. DJ. If you're not taking a quarterback
(24:07):
with superpowers, you're wasting your time. And it's easy for
me and you to talk about that because we're not
affiliated with a team. We don't have the desperation. But
that's the reality of the situation. If your quarterback can
not engage and win a shootout with the aforementioned names,
what are we doing.
Speaker 2 (24:27):
I was having this conversation the other day with someone
about this exact topic, and my point was, you know,
at the end of the day, there's not that much
difference between missing on greatness and hitting on average. You
know what, in three years, you're still looking for somebody new. Like,
(24:52):
so my whole thing is, like, I think I would
rather gamble on greatness. If I hit it, we're set, well,
I don't have to worry about this. We're going for
the next decade, like we're we're cooking with gas. And
guess what if I miss, I'm coming right back and
I'm gonna try and swing swing for a big, big
one again the next time. If I, if I correctly evaluate,
this guy is gonna be okay, like middle tier and
(25:13):
I hit on him, what's my reward for hitting on him? Well,
three years from now, we're gonna all sit in our
draft meetings and go guys like we can't get through
that gauntlet of quarterbacks you just talked about, Like our
team has to be perfect everywhere else to get through
the gauntlet of quarterbacks with an average, you know, B
level player like you. It's it's interesting convers it's a.
Speaker 1 (25:32):
Interesting conversation, and it brings you to the thing. Right,
So then we talk about, all right, the tools and
the tools at succeed. So what are the superpowers that
the player brings to the table, because, like what we're
gambling on are the super powers? Because okay, let's talk
about all of those guys that we mentioned, with the
exception of Joe Burrow, Joe Burrow is super proud. I
would say it was his processing the processing ability. Okay, Well,
(25:57):
let's talk about everybody else just in the AFC, mahomes
superpower like just ridiculous arm talent, improvisational skills through the root. Okay,
But even then, Dj he was in a slam dump.
When we were talking about him in the draft class,
we weren't saying, oh man, this is the number one
over a guy. We got to put him up there,
take him away. Josh Allen MVP this year. Josh Allen
(26:18):
at Woman. I went and saw him twice. I saw
him at a potato ball and I thought he was talented,
but his accuracy was all over the place. He couldn't
pay the strikes on And I would say this, He
ran around at Wyoming, but he didn't display that he
could be this kind of runner at the NFL level.
So what you're talking about is elite talent, elite movement
(26:39):
skills or whatever. Lamar Jackson ridiculous runner at Louisville Co.
Can move around and make all those things. But what
did we say, Hey man, he wasn't an accurate thrower
outside the numbers. The ball fell off the table when
he had to throw outside, breaking routes that landed outside
the numbers. Two time MVP. All the trades wide receiver
(26:59):
likes and those things. I mean, DJ, we're talking about
the best of the best were the ones that we
physically looked at and said, you know what, we're gonna do. Guys,
I'm a fool dark and I'll say that, Hey, it's
talent and tools are gonna give us a chance to
build an offense around what he can do really, really well.
Speaker 2 (27:18):
And I think the teams that are, you know, considering
the second wave of quarterbacks, I think you know it's
been a minute now, but you know what you're hoping,
you're holding on hope is that it's your Derek Carr,
your Andy Dalton, you know, Russ, You've got cousins like that.
That's been a minute since teams were hitting the Jose
(27:40):
guys and that portion of the draft.
Speaker 1 (27:42):
Everybody that you're talking about, Russell's in his thirteenth year.
I mean, everybody is everybody that we're talking about, that's
a decade plus ago since.
Speaker 2 (27:54):
Then, Hurts is probably like in terms of like the
day two guys, he's like the.
Speaker 1 (27:59):
Last will it Hurts and it's Brock Purdy. They're the last,
the last of them that we can talk about being that.
And so when you think about let's just I mean,
let's just talk about a couple of years ago, we
got excited about hey man, Desmond Ritter Man, Maybe Desmond
Ritter can be the day to guy that man, Desmond
(28:19):
rid has been on this he's on his third team. Yeah,
he can't stick because when you put him out there,
you now, really and this is no disrespect or slight
to Desmond Ritter, like look, respect anyone who's been in
the league or whatever. But there have been teams and
coaches who've had him on the field and they quickly decided,
I can't compete with the best of the best with
(28:40):
him as my starting quarterback. H can he pick it
on his third team? He was a first round pick
in that draft. Same thing. There are teams that decided,
man like, if he's on the field, like he's good,
but he ain't good enough to help us close the
gap on the competitors. That's what we're talking about. And
so the interesting thing that we'll see in this draft,
(29:02):
how many decision makers and stand firm on those ideals
that we talk about. This is one thing for you
and I to say, non, be patient, you better get
the right one. It's another thing when the owner and
the fan base is clamoring for a franchise quarterback.
Speaker 2 (29:17):
Yeah, it's it's a huge challenge. It is a huge challenge.
But I mean I get it. You got to take
your swings. My whole thing is, though, if you're just
gonna swing like man, go for it like there's no
you go up to the high dive. You don't just
jump in the pool like you gotta go up and
take your swing. Man, go for somebody that if they hit,
you hit big.
Speaker 1 (29:38):
So now let's talk about that. So here's the funny thing.
So when you do that, though, nobody remembers why you
took the swing. Anthony Richardson, Right, So the ind and
fis goes fourth over a pick. They take a swing
on Anthony Richardson. Everyone loves it at the time, But
oh man, the tools are the talent in this and that,
and then he plays. And then when he plays, you
(29:59):
don't have the patience to live through the icky stuff
that you have to live through to hope that he
gets to the other side. So that's the conundrum that
decision makers find because when I do gamble on the
tools and the traits, man, I need to support of
everybody inside the building and outside the building to understand
(30:20):
what we're going through.
Speaker 2 (30:21):
I mean, all those a lot of those guys you
mentioned like they were a little bit patient with Josh
and then he got it. You know, he figured it
out pretty quickly, but there was some some downtime early
on there. Mahomes didn't play right away. Love, who had
a ton of tools, didn't play right away. So it's
interesting how and Lamar they crafted the whole thing around,
starting with his legs and then the arm. You know,
(30:43):
he just he's getting better and better and better every
single year as a pastor. So I mean, it's you
gotta have a plan in place for those guys, and
you got to be able to live with some of the.
Speaker 1 (30:53):
I think, I think the biggest thing that you're talking
about is everyone has to live with the struggles that
come along with it. And so like the guy, So
we talked about office wide receiver, quarterback, they're ones, and
in DJ, I say the final thing I'm rafting with,
I would say the cornerbacks. And normally with cornerbacks, it's
pretty easy for me to categorize them and where do
you put them and where do you pluck them? To me,
I think there are a lot of guys that kind
(31:15):
of deserve the same grade. They all are kind of
in that that second round category. So the Kentucky the
Kentucky kid Harston. You know, people are really excited about him.
So now after the comment, people are talking about him
as a first rounder. But then I'm looking at the
tape and I'm like, Okay, I mean is he I
mean he could, but is he really a first rounder?
Then I think about all the other guys, like Revel
(31:35):
has been hurt, so we're dealing with the East Carolina
got coming off the A cl you got Thomas from
Florida State who's talented. But they all are still in
that Yeah, so like, yeah, they're in the thing, even Morrison,
Like they all in the same thing. And so yeah,
I'm all right, like, yeah, I can get excited about
(31:55):
these guys in the second round, but I don't think
they're game changes.
Speaker 2 (32:00):
That's why Amos, That's why Amos Amos ended up being
kind of a winner through this whole thing, you know,
because he's one hundred and ninety five pounds. First of all,
he ran four four three, which is a great time
for him, which that was kind of the question. The
knock on him was the speed. So he's my forty
first player, but I do my next update. He'll probably
move up a few spots, but like Harrison's thirty nine,
(32:22):
Amos forty one, Thomas forty two, Morrison forty four. Like
I kind of have all those guys personally as all
second round players, you know, but there's teams with needs
at that position, screaming needs, and I in terms of
like the grades, there's guys I have in the twenties
grades not much different from the from those four corners
(32:42):
that I just mentioned.
Speaker 1 (32:42):
They're in the forties. So if you need one, I
guess you just hate one. I guess that's and that's
where we're at. And you know, it's funny because then
we end up talking about the draft class overall what
it sounds like in the conversation. I'm listening to my stuff.
When I'm listening to you, Yeah, good at that. Great.
(33:04):
And so if I'm a decision maker, hey man, I'm
butting I'm gonna take a few picks early and I
would trade some of my back end stuff to make
sure I get a handful of guys, three or four
guys that I feel great about it. And then I'm like, yeah,
I'm good, I'm good on the rest. And we've seen that.
Speaker 2 (33:23):
Because that's that's how you got to look at it.
You got to look at it. It's a doubles It's
a doubles draft.
Speaker 1 (33:28):
Man.
Speaker 2 (33:28):
Like you know, we talked about the quarterback position. If
you're gonna swing, swing for the fences. Yeah, But outside
of the quarterback position, the rest of these guys, I
like guys that come in clear packaging. I know, I'm
gonna get starters and uh and fill some holes and
then move on. But in terms of like high high
end impact, there's not a ton of that. It just isn't.
Speaker 1 (33:48):
It isn't, and it's gonna continue to be one of
those things where we we have to. You know, it's
funny like cant get caught up into bright lights and
go on TV and say something like, oh, I mean
I feel great about this, and then you're like, you
got a quotable that's out there existing in the either
on a player that you don't feel as strong me
is about because as we're sitting here talking about Amanda,
class is good, not great. There's some great players, but
(34:11):
they're more good players than great players in this class.
And I think, look, it'd be interesting when we get
down to it because we always kind of talk about
the number of first round grades that you have on
people normally we talk about eighteen to twenty two first
round grades. I wonder, after we do all of it,
if we come away with like fifteen guys that really
care first round grades. Yeah, yeah, I know.
Speaker 2 (34:34):
One thing that's interesting is it's the non premier positions.
I gave you two running backs, so I think I
feel really really strongly about. I give you two tight
ends I feel really strongly about, and I'll give you
two safeties I feel really strongly about. And at the
end of the day, if you come away with one
of those six guys in the first round, thank you.
Speaker 1 (34:49):
I think that is I think that is a really
good approach. I think those guys that you talk about
gent Hampton and running back, you talk about Warren and
Loveland at tied end and starts and even worry, Yeah,
sign me up. And it's funny because those physicians are
non premium positions, and so so much of the value
that we talked about in the first round excluded those.
(35:11):
But now that we're talking to a coach not this year,
guys that we talked about red stars or can't miss. Yeah,
I can sign up for any of those six guys,
and I'm good with it.
Speaker 2 (35:21):
Yeah, that's it's where we are different draft. Anything else
you want to add before we get out of here, Buck.
Speaker 1 (35:26):
No, that's it, man, because we're able to touch on
some of the things today. I'm talking about like seven
of the guys that a trust to them, don't worry
about the workouts, and we happen to it on now
like that starts. It's on that list, and so that's
what it is. DJ. I think this is one where, man,
the scouts have to be really convicted and you have
to avoid think tank because as the noise escalates as
(35:48):
we get close to the production of the draft, man,
you got to trust your instincts on which players are
really the players and kind of ignore all the other
stuff that's going to be banded.
Speaker 2 (35:57):
About, no doubt. Well, this has been a fun one.
Hope you guys have enjoyed it. We'll be back next
week and we've got shoot ours pro day at the
end up next week, I believe, right, So we'll have Yeah,
we'll have that on NFL Networks, being a look out
for that, and lots of draft stuff coming your way
throughout podcast that we have here as well as the shows.
(36:18):
We've got an NFL network, So keep an eye out
for that. We'll see you next time, right here on
movie sticks.
And now move the sticks with Daniel Jeremiah and Bucky Brooks.
Speaker 2 (00:08):
What's up, everybody? Welcome to move the sticks? DJ, Buck
with you?
Speaker 1 (00:12):
Buck? Did you take in Opening Day Baseball? Did you
watch it? Or are you going to kind of ease
and ease into it? I didn't notice that the Dodgers one,
but I didn't. I can't say that I watched it
from beginning. It just kind of checked in. So Shoneo
Tani do what he does. One or three guys they
hit a homer. So yeah, excited about it? Now you
The bigger thing is are you gonna speak too soon?
(00:32):
You always get super excited the month of April May,
you're really into it. Then you begin to kind of
fade and fizzle for a little bit in June. You
pick it back up a little bit in July, and
then depending on how the pods are doing. I don't
know who's DJ I'm gonna get come on against in
sip Jim. I'll be honest with you.
Speaker 2 (00:51):
I got a text message from our buddy Chris Rose.
Speaker 1 (00:54):
It was like, hey, what do you expect this year?
Speaker 2 (00:56):
And I was like, you know, I'm gonna set my
expectations just five hundred.
Speaker 1 (00:59):
Keep our excitations this year, just.
Speaker 2 (01:01):
Five bundred because but Bucky always, Bucky always tells me
that I get too excited. So I said, not this year.
I'm gonna just go. And and last year we had
a great year. I think we're the second best team
in baseball. But we you know, so we had we
have a really good team. But I'm gonna get let's
lower expectations, not get ahead of myself.
Speaker 1 (01:17):
So what happened.
Speaker 2 (01:18):
We faced Chris Sale, the raining Cy Young Award winner yesterday,
knock him around the yard and win. And I'm like,
we're gonna We're gonna wine hundred games.
Speaker 1 (01:25):
Like, let's go.
Speaker 2 (01:28):
It just took one day.
Speaker 1 (01:29):
It just took one day. I'm in, I'm all in
one day, and you're you're automatic all the way back
in again. It's a disease, Buck, it's a disease. It
can't help, but it's just a disease. It's so hard,
Like I feel so bad. I feel so bad for
you because you this is what you do all the time.
And then ultimately, like your little heart is broken at
(01:50):
the end, and it's sad, it's not it's not fun
seeing you like this.
Speaker 2 (01:55):
Yep, no it's it's it's, it is what it is.
But I'm I'm I'm all in on the pods right now.
I am excited about the calendar getting ready to flip though,
because we're almost to April, and that means, man, the
draft is really really creeping up on us. I got
a couple of things I want to hit on today
with you, Buck, including I want to get into your
top vibes a little bit. And I want to know
(02:16):
because I feel like I've kind of told you some
of the ones that I'm struggling with. I'd love to
know like maybe two or three different two or three
different struggles that you got on your list. So we'll
get to that in a minute. But before we do that,
I had this conversation the other day talking to a coach.
Brought up a great point, and I don't know what
the numbers are. It's like, I don't know close to
(02:37):
half of the top pass rushers, the top twelve to
fifteen pass rushers are not going to record forties. They
did not run at the Combine and they're not running
at Pro days, so there's no forties.
Speaker 1 (02:49):
And when we were.
Speaker 2 (02:50):
Talking about and he said, look like some for some
positions like GPS you can take those those numbers.
Speaker 1 (02:56):
And you can find value in that.
Speaker 2 (02:59):
And he was like, I can't, like, for an edge rusher,
the numbers that they have going off of NFL players,
He's all are so wonky because you might like, like
Jared Verse had one of the one of the best
GPS numbers of any defensive end. Well he's chasing Sakuon
Barkley forty yards down the field. Yeah, like that's where
that number comes from. So whereas some of the other
(03:21):
guys who you know are real explosive for eighteen miles
per hour. So he's like, for evaluating these guys using
GPS numbers doesn't really help them. And he was he
was saying that there's you know, they do some force
plate jumps at the combine, so they've used those more.
Now even just you have the vertical number that you get,
(03:41):
but the force plate to really see how explosive these
guys are. You're trying to find creative ways to, you know,
to be able to put these guys on a level
playing field and see what the what the numbers tell you.
Speaker 1 (03:54):
So now this is hard, and this is hard because
depending on you school board, depending on how you're reared
in the business. You're now going to have to test
some of the philosophies and ideologies that many of us
have talked about for years, and you really trust the
tape without the workouts or the measurements or the things
(04:18):
kind of backing you up or validating some of your opinions.
So when we talk about players, particularly past rushers, we
can talk about first step quickness, elite burst in those things,
and a lot of times we can validate that by
looking at their ten time or looking at some of
the agility shuttles or three cone or any of those
other measurements that we like to use to kind of say, oh,
(04:40):
I can rubber stamp it because what I saw on
tape has been matched on what they did in the workout.
Where it gets tricky is depending on the level of competition.
Guys blowing past people on the snap and those things.
Are we having true apples to apples discussions When we
may look at a Mike Green play in one conference
(05:04):
versus somebody else who is playing in the SEC against
presumably presumably better tackles and blockers in those things, that's
where it comes into play, because is there gonna be
a natural bias when we're trying to factor a set
of players from one area versus a set of players
from another area who may not have as many matchups
(05:26):
against premier players.
Speaker 2 (05:30):
Well, I think that helps, you know, when you have
these guys that go to the Senior Bowl. Because you
mentioned Mike Green, like, okay, well I got to watch
Mike Green go one on one, you know, a couple
of days at the Senior Bowl against some of the
better tackle prospects in the draft, including the famous rep
against Connery that you know made the rounds.
Speaker 1 (05:48):
Or you got a chance to see how explosive he was.
Speaker 2 (05:51):
So you've got that Ezaku from from Boston College was
another one that was there. Alanna Jackson was there from Arkansas,
had a big game. Like you got a chance to
at least see those guys in person and uh and
see them move around. I know Alane Jackson ended up
burning a forty, but you uh, you know, at least
you got a chance to see it. Feel like the
Ohio State guys, I almost wonder, you know, like that
(06:13):
that Ohio State Pro Day was very heavily attended and
even though I don't think either one of them ran
forties jtt or Jack Sawyer, So that they're two that
aren't going to have a forty time out there, but
to get a chance to work them out and at
least feel them, you know, kind of feel their their
their bursts and their and their juice.
Speaker 1 (06:29):
I mean, that's old school scoutings what it is. Yeah,
And so what I think the trick will be is
when you started having the positional workouts, if you can
bake some things into the workout that'll allow you to
assess how fast guys are. I think ultimately what you
have is a meeting of the minds between coaches and
(06:50):
the scouts to figure out what can we put them through.
What is the one drill that we can put everybody
that we work out through. Then maybe we can have
a scout time on the side that allows us to
have comparables when we go to talk talk about these guys. Okay,
jack So did this and this drill. Lenn and Jackson
(07:10):
did this in the same drill. So now we can
have some subtle things that we can line up. But
we knew it was a matter of time when these
guys started opting out of workouts and forties and those
things that we as evaluators, we were going to be
tested where we really have to hang on what we
always say, did we do trust the tape, Trust the tape,
(07:30):
Trust the tape? Well, now you gotta trust a tape. Yeah, no,
it's one hundred percent true.
Speaker 2 (07:36):
And it's become literally it's become a buffet of I
want to do Okay, I'll do the three cone, but
I'm not gonna do I'm not gonna do the jumps. Well,
I'm not going to run, I'll do the positional drills.
Like it's just kind of become a buffet in the spring.
Whereas it used to be you could almost I think
scouts could almost kind of bully guys and be like, hey,
you're the only one in this group that's not doing
something like we're not taking you. You told you always
(07:57):
tell a story about Lindell White on you like those
those days are over, man Like it is like in
terms of like player empowerment, like that's that's one area
from a scouting side of things that we've seen massive change,
you know, a one not having their guys take the
(08:17):
cognitive tests after you know, the CJ. Stroud stuff, so
like you know you're you're You're get to the point
now where it's like, man, you better get out and
do your homework in the fall. Get out and see
these guys, go to some live games and see them
move around and see them do things, and give yourself
a little bit a better opportunity there, because if you're
banking on getting all this information in the spring, I
(08:40):
don't know, I don't know that those days are ever
coming back.
Speaker 1 (08:42):
DJ is. Look, it's gonna make it. It's gonna make it
really really hard to get your work done. So you're
really gonna have to get out there. You have to
trust Grand Coach, Like relationships are gonna matter more now
than ever. Like one of the things that you and
I have always done are a good friend who's Felman
puts out the Freaks List. So what it does It
(09:03):
gives you like a little preview of the super explosive
athletes that you need to pay attention to in the fall.
And then when they put together great years, you can
always go back and reference the Freaks List because you
have the numbers that they've compiled high they going to
jump and do those things. It is it's gonna become trickier. So,
for instance, I was just having a conversation with a
(09:24):
colleague about gam Scatterboo from Arizona State. Well, I love
as a player, right, just absolutely love how he gets
down to whatever his pro day comes. Hey, I give
you a vertical thirty nine and a half. I'll give
you a broad gymp in three. Hey we need that
forty seven. Yeah, I'm a pat. And so now you
have to make the assessment, Well, how fast do we
(09:47):
think he is? You know, like, what how much does
it matter? I'm looking at him in comparison to the
other guys on the list, Like where do I stack
him based on the information that I have. I love
the player on but I don't have all the other things.
So where I have a junkins run this, and I
have other guys run that. Where that factor is And
(10:09):
so for the prospect it's a bit of the roll
of the dice saying to hey, everyone can't be mad
at me for not putting up a forty. I just
need to have one team that love me and hopefully
it doesn't impact my round value. But it makes it
a very difficult thing. And we say we don't want
to hold it against players, but man, you just remember
where how it is spring with me. We tried to
(10:29):
complete the profile. Hey, Buck, you don't have Hey, you
don't have a forty input it in the computer. We
need you to get out there and run. Hey he said,
he's not running. Yeah, but we can't put a final
grade on it if we don't have the forty. Those
days are done. I mean, you're really testing those old
(10:50):
theories that we talk about, like really grading off the
tape in those things. And you have some guys that
disappoint you when you see him show up for that
first mini camp and they run nothing like you expect
them to run.
Speaker 2 (11:02):
Yeah, it's interesting discussion, man, it's and I think people think,
I think it's very easy to say, you just watch
the tape, and who cares the tapes? All that matters,
Like the tape is by far the most important thing,
but that other stuff when you're trying to level out
an account for competition, who you're playing against and things,
and that doesn't necessarily have to be a big school
small thing, small school thing. You could be in a
(11:24):
power for conference and you might only play against you know,
you might be a corner who's only playing against two
or three receivers the whole year that can really run
and guess what those games you might be playing off,
So I don't I've never really seen you get tested,
like can I line you up? Nose knows no one
you can carry a vertical route like, I don't know
if you can run like that. So it does matter,
(11:45):
It does matter. So that's why it becomes very, very challenging.
Speaker 1 (11:49):
Yeah, it becomes a challenge. And all these things only
become more challenging. And so the one thing that I
do know about scouts and evaluator is like, look, we're adaptable,
will adjust, but it makes it hard, particularly in doing
some of the things that we love to do. Right,
So we all everyone keeps a log in a history, right,
I've seen you reference your sequence list when we talk
(12:11):
about one player and trying to compare him to another
player two three years ago, to be like, hey, you
know this player three or four years ago, he did this,
ran this time, and look at the success that he's
having at a pro now. It makes it harder when
we're kind of like building the case to support our
player in a meeting, It makes it harder because I
(12:31):
can't do that. I can say, oh, he ran for
two thousand yards, but yeah, but we's is forty time
E coach, I don't have that. Well, well, how do
we know if he's going to survive? What are the
superpowers that he brings to the table that's going to
enable him to replicate that success as a pro. It
just makes it more difficult to be able to make
some of these arguments when you have Prospect A and
(12:51):
Prospect B with similar grades. But I have an incomplete
prospect incomplete profile on Prospect B.
Speaker 2 (12:59):
Yeah, and the other thing that we'll see. But we'll
see how this all transpires. A couple guys out there,
there's definitely theories around the league too, which is, you know,
this is how you get to the process without running,
you don't work out, not healthy, got a little nagging injury.
So we're going to reschedule a pro day for middle
to you know, middle to the early part of the
(13:21):
twenties of you know, a week before the draft, right,
So you're gonna say the fourteenth, fifteen, somewhere in there.
So I'm gonna have a late pro day and guess
what magically happens at that late pro day? A little
bit tight. I'm gonna do the position drills, but not
gonna I'm not gonna run a forty like that is
the that is like right out of the playbook of
how you get away with not running a forty these days.
Speaker 1 (13:40):
Oh so that may sound like a guy that I'm
writing about today, Will Johnson or Michigan who may not
ever record anything of significance when it comes to his
athletics stuff. And now we're led to just focus solely
on what he has done. And it's funny because what
complicates the Will Johnson and evaluation because he's someone who
(14:01):
hasn't worked at and run DJ. He's had injuries and
two of the last three seasons that it's kept him
out of games. And so now I not only I
don't have testing, but I have a durability concern based
on what we know to be true. He has missed
games in each of the past two seasons. It just
makes it hard some of the guys that you love
(14:23):
on tape you can't fully take a stand on because
you're like, man, am I missing something? Is there something
that's gonna come back to bite me? When we bring
him in the building and he works out for the
first time and you're like, oh, yeah, that doesn't that
doesn't look good because you can't have I don't have
a time.
Speaker 2 (14:43):
You know, I'm going through this list and I'm like
just just going through a mock draft, right, so from
like my last mock draft, I'm trying to find the
first player who had a full process, right that we
actually saw in an All Star game as well, So you.
Speaker 1 (14:56):
Know who, you know who it is. It's Grey's Able.
Speaker 2 (15:00):
Wow, Gray's Abel was my I had him going sixteen
in this in this mock craft, Mike Green is is
right there with him. But I don't think Mike Green,
I don't think he ran a forty.
Speaker 1 (15:10):
Did he?
Speaker 2 (15:10):
I don't think he ran a forty. He just did
the I think he just did the cone drills. So,
I mean, there are not many guys that had a
full process that you got all the way through. He
saw him in the fall, maybe saw in an All
Star game and you saw him do a full workout
where you saw everything. So I don't know, that's interesting.
(15:31):
It just and that used to.
Speaker 1 (15:32):
Not be the case.
Speaker 2 (15:32):
It used to be you'd have half the first round
were full process guys where you saw go kind of
through the whole thing. So it's just different. It's different
time you got to just there's nothing to complain about.
It is what it is, all right, Buck, let's say
quick break, we come back. I want to get into
some of these debates here after this all right sign
(15:53):
for Hot or Not, brought to you by Wasabi Hot
Cloud Storage. Buck top fives that you got out there.
I've had my struggles with some of these battles here.
Give me give me your top three battles that you've
had of of difficulty. They're trying to stack guys a
different pace.
Speaker 1 (16:10):
So I'm gonna say, DJ, let's go to the pass
catcher thing, right, the wide receivers. And the reason the
struggle for me has has has kept me up at
night is really trying to figure out like, not only
how do we set the pecking order, but which guys
are truly wide receiver ones and which guys do we
(16:30):
need to project as wide receiver twos. So at the
top of my board, and we've had the conversation about
t mac McMillan, Matthew Golden, Amika Abuka, Luther Burden, and
right now I still have Isaiah Bond hanging at five.
But DJ, when I look at all of these guys,
right I can't say that any of them project in
(16:51):
terms of like their overall skill set as a true
number one. Maybe team matt or no one does that
like Matthew Golden. If you ask me in an ideal world,
what's his position? And as we talked about the basketball
team analogie, he's the number two. He's the stretch to field.
He's the other guy opposite the dominant pass catcher or
(17:12):
whatever I mean. Kay Buka plays in the slot. Luther
Burden is more like the Deebo Samuel kind of do
everything run option routes. Give it to them on fly
sweeps and those things like DJ. If I am a
team in need of a true classic number one to
anchor the passing game, I can't confidently say that I'm
gonna get one in this draft. And this is the
(17:32):
first time in how many years, five, six, seven years
that there hasn't been that established guy or two that
we can say, Hey, if I need a wide receiver,
that's the guy that I'm gonna go get that. To me,
that's problematic and it's one of the reasons why in
my draft we may only see two guys on the board. Yeah.
Speaker 2 (17:53):
I got a text from Kurt Warner who's going through
watching all these guys right now. And he was asking
me about Golden and he was like, and I infer
because I had Golden as my top receiver. And he said,
do you think really think Golden is a number one?
And I wrote back and I said, there are no
number ones in this draft. Like to me, they're all
twos and there are different flavors they're twos, but there
(18:15):
the draft is full of twos and threes. Like, that's
not what this that's not what you're getting here, you know.
You know, Marvin Harrison coming out last year was viewed
as a one. Neighbors viewed as a one, a dooonese.
For me definitely was viewed as a one. Like there
was there were guys and even like Ady Mitchell, like
if he were to hit his ceiling, would would be
a one. Obviously you saw in Jacksonville. That's a number
(18:37):
one all day long. So I mean, that's not this draft.
It's not this draft, man. It's you're trying to get
guys that are going to be solid players that you're
not going to have to replace, that are going to
be key guys for you, but they're not going to
be the We always talk about it from this standpoint
of like the game plan guys defensively where you're like,
(18:58):
oh crap, you better circle this dude. We got to
stop him. Like that's not this draft man, not at
the receiver position.
Speaker 1 (19:04):
It's not. And you know it's funny because, like Kurt
Warner would have a strong take on that, particularly this year,
because there isn't the one guy that can do everything
that is expected of the number one receiver. And let's
be clear when we talk about the number one receiver,
and by my definition, I would say the number one
receiver is a guy that anchors the passing game. He
(19:24):
commands a double team and consistently beats the double team
because everyone in the building knows that the ball is
going to him on those critical doubts. He's a guy
that I would say, most of the ones that we've
seen that are number ones, they aren't the fastest. He's
the one that typically runs in the range of five
or four, five to four to five to five, but
he gets open and he's a consistent chain mover on
(19:45):
the offense. And when you look at the guys who
have the complete skill set, they are terrific route runners.
They have the patience and time and to get away,
they can get off of pressed. They can do all
those things. Stylistically, they can do it a few different ways,
whether it says a true route runner or a jump
on specialists. But they're the ones that when you show
up on Sundays, everyone knows they're getting the ball and
(20:07):
they continue to get the ball. And so I don't
see any of those unstoppable forces in this draft class.
And that is why DJ, if I'm a team in
need a one, I would probably pass in the first
round on a wide receiver and probably settle in the
second or third round, because honestly, I might get the
same thing that I would get in the first round
(20:28):
in the second and third round based on the lack
of dominant pass catchers in this draft class.
Speaker 2 (20:33):
Yeah, like you say the argument of Okay, I could
take Matthew Golden in the first, or I could take
Noel from Iowa State in the second.
Speaker 1 (20:41):
You know, now I could.
Speaker 2 (20:44):
Take Royals in the third.
Speaker 1 (20:46):
You know, Like, however you want to do it? How
big is the difference? Like how big is the difference
on the grades? Dad? Like they're like, this is no
one day's grade out at a seven h or higher
where you're like, boom, I know for sure exactly what
I'm getting. So if I'm not getting that supplying the man, well,
let me look elsewhere at another position where the value matches,
(21:08):
where we're adding the round and I'm gonna get what
the verbier says I should get with a first round player. Hey,
I'm getting a day one starter. I'm getting an impact player.
I'm getting someone that's gonna change the game for the
next four or five years. And we feel good about Like,
it's hard for me to say that I can put
Dick on the verbiage oh a need of the wide receivers,
and I look, I'm wondered, and I'm probably jaded because
having watched t Mac from the time he's in high school. Yeah,
(21:31):
I can't confidently say that he's gonna come in and
change the game as a big wide receiver already outside.
Speaker 2 (21:36):
Mm hmmm, yeah, well that's the that's the hottest one there.
By the way, we'll get to some more here in
just a second. But that was this week's Hot or
Not segment, brought to you by with Sabi Hot Cloud Storage,
store more and do more with your data. Try them
for free at Withsabi dot com. So if the wide
receiver group is your number one struggle there, buck, what's
what's number two?
Speaker 1 (21:55):
Okay, so number two when I'm gonna say this, and
I probably could have said this number one, i'mna be
honest with you, man, I'm really stuck with all these quarterbacks, right,
I'm stuck because the conversation and it always does this
around draft time, the escalation and the elevation of guys
like a Tyler Scheff, like the conversation like, oh, we're
just gonna get a guy like hey, let's move him up,
(22:16):
like we can pass early and get somebody late in
the second round. That's gonna help us that we can
find a way to do it. Well, here's the reality
that hasn't worked. Like it has. It hasn't worked. It
has Like Jalen Hurts is the only one of the
final eight. It was like a second round there was
a second round player that was in the tournament. Like
(22:39):
it rarely works. And we're talking about the hit rate
in the first round is being forty four percent, Well,
then what is it gonna be when we get out
of the first round When it comes to the hit rate,
So I'm having a tough time where and I know
some of this is influenced because on TV we always
want to talk about the quarterbacks, but like DJ, we
talk about the tears and what's really gonna pop. Look, man,
(23:03):
to me, I think there's a significant drop up. Like,
and I know people like we saw Jackson Dart. You
saw Jackson Jackson Dart at the Senior Ball And I'm
actually a believer that Jackson Dart can be a starter.
But after that, man, I can't sit here and rubber
stamp anybody. But all the grays are bunched together, and
so I'm like, if you're gonna take one, you gotta
take one in the first round, just because that's those
(23:25):
are the ones that POP of these dudes can be like, well,
we're chasing. Because I think it's really important that everyone
views the standard at quarterback based on what's really playing.
And if we use the AFC as an example, And
the reason I say this is because both of us
also have side gigs with AFC teams. Well, when I
(23:45):
look at the AFC and the gauntlet that we have
to run to really win in the AFC, Pat Mahomes,
Josh Allen Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert. I mean
that's just the start, Like, that's just to give yourself
a chance to get into tournament. Bo Nix is now
in the mix. DJ. If you're not taking a quarterback
(24:07):
with superpowers, you're wasting your time. And it's easy for
me and you to talk about that because we're not
affiliated with a team. We don't have the desperation. But
that's the reality of the situation. If your quarterback can
not engage and win a shootout with the aforementioned names,
what are we doing.
Speaker 2 (24:27):
I was having this conversation the other day with someone
about this exact topic, and my point was, you know,
at the end of the day, there's not that much
difference between missing on greatness and hitting on average. You
know what, in three years, you're still looking for somebody new. Like,
(24:52):
so my whole thing is, like, I think I would
rather gamble on greatness. If I hit it, we're set, well,
I don't have to worry about this. We're going for
the next decade, like we're we're cooking with gas. And
guess what if I miss, I'm coming right back and
I'm gonna try and swing swing for a big, big
one again the next time. If I, if I correctly evaluate,
this guy is gonna be okay, like middle tier and
(25:13):
I hit on him, what's my reward for hitting on him? Well,
three years from now, we're gonna all sit in our
draft meetings and go guys like we can't get through
that gauntlet of quarterbacks you just talked about, Like our
team has to be perfect everywhere else to get through
the gauntlet of quarterbacks with an average, you know, B
level player like you. It's it's interesting convers it's a.
Speaker 1 (25:32):
Interesting conversation, and it brings you to the thing. Right,
So then we talk about, all right, the tools and
the tools at succeed. So what are the superpowers that
the player brings to the table, because, like what we're
gambling on are the super powers? Because okay, let's talk
about all of those guys that we mentioned, with the
exception of Joe Burrow, Joe Burrow is super proud. I
would say it was his processing the processing ability. Okay, Well,
(25:57):
let's talk about everybody else just in the AFC, mahomes
superpower like just ridiculous arm talent, improvisational skills through the root. Okay,
But even then, Dj he was in a slam dump.
When we were talking about him in the draft class,
we weren't saying, oh man, this is the number one
over a guy. We got to put him up there,
take him away. Josh Allen MVP this year. Josh Allen
(26:18):
at Woman. I went and saw him twice. I saw
him at a potato ball and I thought he was talented,
but his accuracy was all over the place. He couldn't
pay the strikes on And I would say this, He
ran around at Wyoming, but he didn't display that he
could be this kind of runner at the NFL level.
So what you're talking about is elite talent, elite movement
(26:39):
skills or whatever. Lamar Jackson ridiculous runner at Louisville Co.
Can move around and make all those things. But what
did we say, Hey man, he wasn't an accurate thrower
outside the numbers. The ball fell off the table when
he had to throw outside, breaking routes that landed outside
the numbers. Two time MVP. All the trades wide receiver
(26:59):
likes and those things. I mean, DJ, we're talking about
the best of the best were the ones that we
physically looked at and said, you know what, we're gonna do. Guys,
I'm a fool dark and I'll say that, Hey, it's
talent and tools are gonna give us a chance to
build an offense around what he can do really, really well.
Speaker 2 (27:18):
And I think the teams that are, you know, considering
the second wave of quarterbacks, I think you know it's
been a minute now, but you know what you're hoping,
you're holding on hope is that it's your Derek Carr,
your Andy Dalton, you know, Russ, You've got cousins like that.
That's been a minute since teams were hitting the Jose
(27:40):
guys and that portion of the draft.
Speaker 1 (27:42):
Everybody that you're talking about, Russell's in his thirteenth year.
I mean, everybody is everybody that we're talking about, that's
a decade plus ago since.
Speaker 2 (27:54):
Then, Hurts is probably like in terms of like the
day two guys, he's like the.
Speaker 1 (27:59):
Last will it Hurts and it's Brock Purdy. They're the last,
the last of them that we can talk about being that.
And so when you think about let's just I mean,
let's just talk about a couple of years ago, we
got excited about hey man, Desmond Ritter Man, Maybe Desmond
Ritter can be the day to guy that man, Desmond
(28:19):
rid has been on this he's on his third team. Yeah,
he can't stick because when you put him out there,
you now, really and this is no disrespect or slight
to Desmond Ritter, like look, respect anyone who's been in
the league or whatever. But there have been teams and
coaches who've had him on the field and they quickly decided,
I can't compete with the best of the best with
(28:40):
him as my starting quarterback. H can he pick it
on his third team? He was a first round pick
in that draft. Same thing. There are teams that decided,
man like, if he's on the field, like he's good,
but he ain't good enough to help us close the
gap on the competitors. That's what we're talking about. And
so the interesting thing that we'll see in this draft,
(29:02):
how many decision makers and stand firm on those ideals
that we talk about. This is one thing for you
and I to say, non, be patient, you better get
the right one. It's another thing when the owner and
the fan base is clamoring for a franchise quarterback.
Speaker 2 (29:17):
Yeah, it's it's a huge challenge. It is a huge challenge.
But I mean I get it. You got to take
your swings. My whole thing is, though, if you're just
gonna swing like man, go for it like there's no
you go up to the high dive. You don't just
jump in the pool like you gotta go up and
take your swing. Man, go for somebody that if they hit,
you hit big.
Speaker 1 (29:38):
So now let's talk about that. So here's the funny thing.
So when you do that, though, nobody remembers why you
took the swing. Anthony Richardson, Right, So the ind and
fis goes fourth over a pick. They take a swing
on Anthony Richardson. Everyone loves it at the time, But
oh man, the tools are the talent in this and that,
and then he plays. And then when he plays, you
(29:59):
don't have the patience to live through the icky stuff
that you have to live through to hope that he
gets to the other side. So that's the conundrum that
decision makers find because when I do gamble on the
tools and the traits, man, I need to support of
everybody inside the building and outside the building to understand
(30:20):
what we're going through.
Speaker 2 (30:21):
I mean, all those a lot of those guys you
mentioned like they were a little bit patient with Josh
and then he got it. You know, he figured it
out pretty quickly, but there was some some downtime early
on there. Mahomes didn't play right away. Love, who had
a ton of tools, didn't play right away. So it's
interesting how and Lamar they crafted the whole thing around,
starting with his legs and then the arm. You know,
(30:43):
he just he's getting better and better and better every
single year as a pastor. So I mean, it's you
gotta have a plan in place for those guys, and
you got to be able to live with some of the.
Speaker 1 (30:53):
I think, I think the biggest thing that you're talking
about is everyone has to live with the struggles that
come along with it. And so like the guy, So
we talked about office wide receiver, quarterback, they're ones, and
in DJ, I say the final thing I'm rafting with,
I would say the cornerbacks. And normally with cornerbacks, it's
pretty easy for me to categorize them and where do
you put them and where do you pluck them? To me,
I think there are a lot of guys that kind
(31:15):
of deserve the same grade. They all are kind of
in that that second round category. So the Kentucky the
Kentucky kid Harston. You know, people are really excited about him.
So now after the comment, people are talking about him
as a first rounder. But then I'm looking at the
tape and I'm like, Okay, I mean is he I
mean he could, but is he really a first rounder?
Then I think about all the other guys, like Revel
(31:35):
has been hurt, so we're dealing with the East Carolina
got coming off the A cl you got Thomas from
Florida State who's talented. But they all are still in
that Yeah, so like, yeah, they're in the thing, even Morrison,
Like they all in the same thing. And so yeah,
I'm all right, like, yeah, I can get excited about
(31:55):
these guys in the second round, but I don't think
they're game changes.
Speaker 2 (32:00):
That's why Amos, That's why Amos Amos ended up being
kind of a winner through this whole thing, you know,
because he's one hundred and ninety five pounds. First of all,
he ran four four three, which is a great time
for him, which that was kind of the question. The
knock on him was the speed. So he's my forty
first player, but I do my next update. He'll probably
move up a few spots, but like Harrison's thirty nine,
(32:22):
Amos forty one, Thomas forty two, Morrison forty four. Like
I kind of have all those guys personally as all
second round players, you know, but there's teams with needs
at that position, screaming needs, and I in terms of
like the grades, there's guys I have in the twenties
grades not much different from the from those four corners
(32:42):
that I just mentioned.
Speaker 1 (32:42):
They're in the forties. So if you need one, I
guess you just hate one. I guess that's and that's
where we're at. And you know, it's funny because then
we end up talking about the draft class overall what
it sounds like in the conversation. I'm listening to my stuff.
When I'm listening to you, Yeah, good at that. Great.
(33:04):
And so if I'm a decision maker, hey man, I'm
butting I'm gonna take a few picks early and I
would trade some of my back end stuff to make
sure I get a handful of guys, three or four
guys that I feel great about it. And then I'm like, yeah,
I'm good, I'm good on the rest. And we've seen that.
Speaker 2 (33:23):
Because that's that's how you got to look at it.
You got to look at it. It's a doubles It's
a doubles draft.
Speaker 1 (33:28):
Man.
Speaker 2 (33:28):
Like you know, we talked about the quarterback position. If
you're gonna swing, swing for the fences. Yeah, But outside
of the quarterback position, the rest of these guys, I
like guys that come in clear packaging. I know, I'm
gonna get starters and uh and fill some holes and
then move on. But in terms of like high high
end impact, there's not a ton of that. It just isn't.
Speaker 1 (33:48):
It isn't, and it's gonna continue to be one of
those things where we we have to. You know, it's
funny like cant get caught up into bright lights and
go on TV and say something like, oh, I mean
I feel great about this, and then you're like, you
got a quotable that's out there existing in the either
on a player that you don't feel as strong me
is about because as we're sitting here talking about Amanda,
class is good, not great. There's some great players, but
(34:11):
they're more good players than great players in this class.
And I think, look, it'd be interesting when we get
down to it because we always kind of talk about
the number of first round grades that you have on
people normally we talk about eighteen to twenty two first
round grades. I wonder, after we do all of it,
if we come away with like fifteen guys that really
care first round grades. Yeah, yeah, I know.
Speaker 2 (34:34):
One thing that's interesting is it's the non premier positions.
I gave you two running backs, so I think I
feel really really strongly about. I give you two tight
ends I feel really strongly about, and I'll give you
two safeties I feel really strongly about. And at the
end of the day, if you come away with one
of those six guys in the first round, thank you.
Speaker 1 (34:49):
I think that is I think that is a really
good approach. I think those guys that you talk about
gent Hampton and running back, you talk about Warren and
Loveland at tied end and starts and even worry, Yeah,
sign me up. And it's funny because those physicians are
non premium positions, and so so much of the value
that we talked about in the first round excluded those.
(35:11):
But now that we're talking to a coach not this year,
guys that we talked about red stars or can't miss. Yeah,
I can sign up for any of those six guys,
and I'm good with it.
Speaker 2 (35:21):
Yeah, that's it's where we are different draft. Anything else
you want to add before we get out of here, Buck.
Speaker 1 (35:26):
No, that's it, man, because we're able to touch on
some of the things today. I'm talking about like seven
of the guys that a trust to them, don't worry
about the workouts, and we happen to it on now
like that starts. It's on that list, and so that's
what it is. DJ. I think this is one where, man,
the scouts have to be really convicted and you have
to avoid think tank because as the noise escalates as
(35:48):
we get close to the production of the draft, man,
you got to trust your instincts on which players are
really the players and kind of ignore all the other
stuff that's going to be banded.
Speaker 2 (35:57):
About, no doubt. Well, this has been a fun one.
Hope you guys have enjoyed it. We'll be back next
week and we've got shoot ours pro day at the
end up next week, I believe, right, So we'll have Yeah,
we'll have that on NFL Networks, being a look out
for that, and lots of draft stuff coming your way
throughout podcast that we have here as well as the shows.
(36:18):
We've got an NFL network, So keep an eye out
for that. We'll see you next time, right here on
movie sticks.
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