Maggie Wolfendale break down the Kentucky Derby. Which horse is a favorite?

Episode Transcript

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Emory Soccer back here with you NewsRadio eleven ten kfab I make no mistake

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about it. I love a lotof cool, interesting things that might be
a little bit on the odd sidefor some people. But one of those
things I think is a lot moremainstream than people give it credit for,
and that's horse racing. And themost mainstream thing that happens for horse racing
throughout the season is tomorrow the KentuckyDerby. And we're being joined by an
expert who works for NAIRA, who'sthe New York Racing Association and really does

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a lot of great work all overthe country, is Maggie Wolfendale and she
is joining us on the phone lineright now. Maggie, first of all,
thanks for being on our show today. I really appreciate it. And
a great opening, I think.Yeah, the Kentucky Derby is really the
introduction for a lot of people intothe world of horse racing, year and
in, year out. It reallyis. And it's the pomp, it's

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the circumstance, it's the party,it's the suits. But it's also the
fastest and most exciting two minutes inall of sports. And Maggie, I
guess as you look at the KentuckyDerby as a whole, knowing horse racing
the way that you do. Howdo you best describe what this is if
you can compare it to kind ofsome of the other things that happen in
sports around America. Well, theKentucky Derby is virtually this super Bowl.

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Now, we do have this thingcalled the Breeders' Cup which does take place
the first weekends generally speaking in November, and for me, that's kind of
like the Olympics, if you will, of horse racing because it deals with
different conditions, different ages, differentsexes, different surfaces. Whereas the Kentucky

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Derby it's one race. It's twentyhorses, all three year role cults also
open to geldings to be fair,and there have been some geldings to win
the Kentucky Derby over the years,going a mile and a quarter and it
hasn't changed virtually in one hundred andfifty years. So the Kentucky Derby,
I would say, is much likethe Super Bowl because it's kind of that

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one big event of the year fora certain sets of horses. Yeah,
and these are horses that are justkind of entering into the world of racing.
Now, a horse races a race. Horses career isn't necessarily all that
long most of the time. ButI think one of the interesting things about
this particular race is you have toqualify to get into it, much like

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the Breeders Cup. But it's hardto get in and you only have one
shot with these three year olds,So how do these horses get themselves into
this race? So a couple ofyears back, we've developed the point system,
and so each kind of racing jurisdiction, whether it's New York, Arkansas,
Louisiana, Florida, California, theyall have beginning even late in the

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two year old campaign in November,a points system race and schedule, so
they'll start with twenty points, willbe the kind of the first series,
or not even that, they'll beten points for the winner of the first
few race on that schedule, andthen so from January through April those points

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start to increase. And so thefinal set of prep races around the country,
i e. The Louisiana Derby,the Wood Memorial, the Bluegrass,
the Arkansas Derby, the Florida Derby, they're all worth one hundred points.
So if you win one of thoseyou're virtually guaranteed to make it into the
starting game for the Run for theRoads is Yeah, we'll speaking of Maggie
Wolfindale. She is an analyst,She breaks down the racing and she just

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generally is an awesome person to talkto when you're trying to learn about this
stuff, when you're trying to handicapa race or figure out how a race
is going to play out. Ifeel like the Kentucky Derby is always one
of the more challenging ones because there'stwenty horses usually that run. What makes
for this particular race, what makesthis so difficult for some of the handicappers

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to try to get this thing right. I like to describe the Derby as
the one race that everybody wants towin. Whether you're a trainer, jockey,
owner, or even a handicap er, you want to get it right.
But when it comes to using itas a tool to handicap, you
know, onwards throughout the year,it's a complete throwout because there's so much

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I don't want to say randomness,but there's so many factors that can occur
during the Run for the Roses whenyou're dealing with a field of twenty horses,
which it is the only race inAmerica that deals with that many runners.
There's so many things that can happen. If you know a speed horse,
this is the break, and thenthey rush up through the field.

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Then they encounter traffic, and oryou have that deep closer that is it
necessarily used to having to circle nineteenother horses, but they have to do
so. But luckily Churchhill downs theway, its configure does have a very
long stretch, so that means whenthey come off the last turn, they
do have quite a way to goto straighten themselves out to find that clear

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path of running room. And inthe last twenty years, fifty percent of
the winners have closed from five lengthsor more. So it's not like deep
closers are up against it despite havingto pick their way through so much traffic.
Yeah, and one of those horsesthat I'm really interested in is the

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all Ba Family Stables entry Catching Freedom. All Ball Family Stables his own is
based in central Iowa, and ofcourse just down the road a little bit
and a little bit of a localIowa connection for a lot of our Western
Iowa people who want to watch thisrace. Catching Freedom trained also by Brad
Cox, who's one of the toptrainers in America. Maggie, what kind

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of shot does this horse have ofmaybe getting that victory and getting those roses
on his back? A big shotemory. He won the Louisiana Derby over
a horse which is the quote unquotebuzz horse. Think of this year's Derby
and honor Marie who has been workingvery well. Now on the flip side
of that coin, Catching Freedom isnot a particularly good workhorse in the mornings.

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He was actually outworked by his stablemateand Sino in their final preps leading
into this Derby, and Sino unfortunatelywill be scratched from this year's Derby.
But that's kind of him. Hedoesn't put forth his best work in the
mornings. He saves it for theafternoon, and you know, ultimately that's
what you for with a race horse. So Catching Freedom is a serious,

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serious contender, and I feel likehe might be of the horses that virtually
has done little wrong in his preparationsis going to be the horse that gets
forgotten a bit. Maybe I'm wrong, Maybe that's just my you know,
vantage point of hearing many different handicapperspicks and so on and so forth.
But I think a lot of peopleare kind of forgetting how good catching freedom

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has maybe been a little bit blacklusterin the mornings, but again that's just
his tip m O. And youtalk about this. We're speaking with Maggie
Wolfendale, who's a great analyst forNIRA in New York but also does so
much great work around the country.You see here on national television covering racing
that generally is emanating out of NewYork with some of the big tracks,
and you get to see so manydifferent kinds of horses. People are like,

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Okay, so he's not good atrunning in the mornings, but he
is a good racer. They allhave kind of their own personalities. How
do you explain kind of the whatthe backside looks like when you're in a
barn of all these horses and howdifferent they all are to people who just
haven't experienced that. Oh true.I mean, they're truly individuals. And
a lot of people are almost obbessiveabout pedigrees, and rightfully so, because

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you trace all these horses pedigrees andyou know it funnels into the development and
the understanding of how these horses function, how good they're going to be,
how their temperament is going to be, how they're going to handle the crowds,
the energy, the horses that havethat proverbial hot you know, maybe

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a stormcat, so the giants causewayspedigrees that they tend to run a little
bit hot, so they might comea little undone by the energy of the
derby, you know, over onehundred thousand people and nineteen other horses and
a packed paddock and so on andso forth. So yeah, it's and
in two just their trainers being ableto understand them. So it's it's such

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an amazing puzzle to put together allthe pieces because you have the form,
you have the what's on paper thatyou can decipher. But at the end
of the day, these horses havebad days and so you've got to factor
those kind of things into your handicappingas well. It's just so fun.
It really is fun. And onceyou kind of figure out how to do
it and taste a little bit ofgetting it right one time, you just

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kind of feel like you want tokeep doing it, and you just kind
of get addicted to doing it.Maggie gets to do it all the time,
and I okay, hot seat timeracist tomorrow. Who do you got?
How do you see this race playingout? So I think there is
going to be a lot of pace, and so the likely post time favorite
and morning line favorite fierceness i Amory. I had my doubts about him.

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He's a word that came into theChampagne last year, which is one of
the big races here in New Yorkfor two year olds and serves as a
great prep for the breeders PEP juvenile. He came into that race as a
favorite, and I'll be honest,when I looked at him in the paddock
here at Aqueducts, in the waythat he stacked up against his competition,

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I didn't particularly like him. Now, he didn't get away that day and
he ran a real clunker, butthe most disappointing race of his career.
And we saw it again when hecame back in the Holy Pool and he
wasn't able to be effective there eitherwhen he didn't get away. Well,
So now he has to deal witha bigger field, other pace wurses.

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Not that he ultimate he needs thelead, but for me and then watching
him train, I have just beenleft wanting more and sile. As though
he's not a dependable sort. Anddon't get me wrong, when he's good,
he's absolutely brilliant and he likely winsthis race. But I want a
horse who's been consistent, and forme that is Sierra Leone. I know

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he's not necessarily my type of force. I'm always gonna lead more into speed
horses because when you look at thepercentage of races run no matter what distance,
what surface, speed is often dangerous. But Sierra Leone, he's done
nothing wrong. He merely beat aserious bias in the Rems in last year
as a two year old when hefinished second to door Knock. That race,

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he circled the field, actually gotup and only a second start and
then was just passed again by rerallying door Knock, who is also in
the Kentucky Derby this year. Butfor me, Sia Leone, they paid
what two point three million for ahorse that is utterly gorgeous. I've liked
this prep playing in the morning andin his races, and he was the

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winner of the Risen Star, whichyou you know talking about catching freedom.
That race has just proven that it'sa key race. And what I mean
by key race, it's produced alot of talent. It's produced a lot
of horses that have come back andwon, so I'm gonna take sier Leone.
There's also a couple of long shotsthat I do find interesting that I'd
like to use underneath. Uh.I mean, you can't just tease me

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with that. You gotta you gottadrop a couple of names here. See.
So, like I said, HonorMarie is a bit of a buzz
horse, if you will. SoI do like him. I like Dad's
other horse, Chad Brown, atrainer of Sara leone domestic product. His
races aren't as fast by any estimation, but he's been combimized by slow paces

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and I really love the way thathe's been working too. And then Stronghold.
He's a California horse. And withthe continuing band of Bob Basfert in
the Kentucky Derby by Kirk hill Down, I feel like these California were they're
being a little bit forgotten because adrisand potent has Bob Baffert been in the
last thirty years with anything that hebrings. He is the only trainer in

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the last thirty years to win twoI mean almost achievable. There's only been
thirteen of them. So for me, the fact that Stronghold comes in here
for trainer Field Tomato and has beatenthose Bafford horses that would likely be major
players in the derby, I think, says a lot. And so for
me, Anna Marie, domestic productand a Stronghold are three horses that I'd

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be using underneath and super factors andexacteds. And that's how you make your
big money right there. And youknow what, you can make money just
listening to Maggie Wolfindale do her joball the time with NIRA. She shows
up on Fox Sports pretty regularly aswell, and just a real joy to
follow on social media. So findMaggie Wolfendale there. Maggie, thanks so
much for carving some time out forus, an amazing time to talk to

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you as always, and we'll chatagain sometime soon. Thank you Emory so
much for having me, and goodluck everyone in the dirty They