Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Interested reseal. Are they gently used? What are we talking?
Have they sat in somebody's pocket for a while.
Speaker 2 (00:05):
No, No, these are something that somebody bought for regular
price with the sole intent to reseal them for like
triple the price. Man, don't you just love capitalism? Baby?
Oh yeah, Well, where's the first game? Yank? Is it
in New York or LA? I think it's La? Okay, yeah,
you know what. It's on Friday.
Speaker 1 (00:24):
I recently learned that I'm a casual baseball fan. Oh no,
because I and I understand the perspective. But only casual
baseball fans are excited for the series. I'm pumped for
this series. Oh I am like. It doesn't make you
I don't want to hide it. That doesn't make you casual.
It just makes you, you know, a little bit more
willing to uh, a.
Speaker 2 (00:45):
Little bit of a bandwagon guy.
Speaker 1 (00:46):
No, just willing to to Like. I just I'll accept
those terms.
Speaker 2 (00:49):
I will. I I'm okay with I hate both of
these teams, Yeah, I get that, but like, like, some
of the players are fun to watch, and if they're
playing for other teams, I'd be totally all in. Unfortunately
for me, I just I can't see past the l
A or the n Y on these hats, and that's
my big issue. So forgive me, forgive me, get it.
I get it. It's kind of like Bulbaffett going toe
(01:11):
to toe against you know, what's the guy with the
with the helmet. I can't think of his name, Darth Vader.
That's the guy. I could remember Bulba Fete but not
Darth Vader. Yeah, you got it. You got some issues, bro, man,
Is that supposed to be a horse? Boba fet? No,
he's a duck. What's happening right now?
Speaker 3 (01:33):
Yeah?
Speaker 2 (01:33):
I was just like the Breeders Cup's coming up over
at del Mar. Yeah, you like the Breeders Cup, best
horse racing in the world. I'm going to watch that
before I watched the World Series anyway. All right, a
couple of things in the news that I wanted to
touch on Donald Trump meeting with some Latino leaders at
Trump National Doral and what was that all about?
Speaker 4 (01:55):
Right?
Speaker 2 (01:55):
Oh, that's right. A brand new poll shows that he's
leading leading and this is national, so again they don't
vote like this, but he's leading Kamala Harris in Latino vote.
But I guess how many guess how many. Trump is
in the lead eleven percent. He's he's winning the Latino
(02:17):
vote by eleven percent. Latino voters backing Trump forty nine
to thirty eight percent. It's in a USA today Suffolk
University poll. I just that is that's a that's a
head scratcher to me. And that's a voting block that
you would talk about, like, hey, that could actually make
a huge difference in some states. Now is it the
(02:40):
right states? Is it the states that the Republicans need?
That truly be the question, Saint pol African American voters
prefer Kamala Harris seventy two to seventeen percent. That leaves
over ten percent that didn't elect to make a determination.
But they say that's not even usually you know, African
(03:00):
Americans are leaning to the left more than sixty percent.
That's only a fifty five percent edge. Now, again, that
have to be in the right area. So what did
Joe Biden do in the twenty twenty race. A Pew
Research Center analysis said that ninety two percent of votes
from African American voters went to Joe Biden in twenty twenty.
(03:22):
That is twenty percent more than Kamala is polling at
right now, among African American voters, twenty points fifty nine
percent of Latino voters supported Biden in the twenty twenty race. Currently,
thirty eight percent say they would vote twenty one percent
less they would vote for Kamala Harris. So I have
to ask, is this a situation where we could be
(03:46):
looking at those two generally always left leaning demographics not
actively supporting Kamala Harris, this time a woman of color,
as potentially the shortfall that she would find in the
race itself. And what does that mean for the rhetoric
(04:06):
that we've been talking about? Right Because everything that we
know about this election, a lot of it's immigration based,
a lot of it is hey law and order based,
a lot of it's also economic based. How much of
this is Donald Trump finding a way to be more
appealing to that voter block or is it that the
(04:26):
Biden administration has had such abject failure according to those
voter blocks that they're not interested in voting for a successor,
which is you would think going to have a pretty
similar at least similar administration themselves. Now, again, this is
a pull. I don't know how much you can trust polls, especially,
you know, considering the millions and millions of people that
(04:48):
are going to be voting, and these polls generally are
only of a thousand or a couple thousand people. They're
worth mentioning because they can illustrate trends. This is certainly
a very strange trend, but it's a big enough one
that I felt like we had to talk about if
that's going to be how it actually sits. It's going
to be tough for me to understand how she's going
to find a way to win some of these toss
(05:08):
up states. At the same time, who the heck knows
At this point, We've been seeing different movements back and forth.
You know. I find it interesting that you say today
in Suffolk University, a real well respected polling place, when
they when they release a poll, usually people take it
pretty seriously when it says Donald Trump has an eleven
(05:28):
point lead on Kamala Harris in the Latino vote, that
that's got to catch some eyes. It's got to If
you've got thoughts, you can call us now at four
o two five five eight eleven ten. Four oh two
five five eight eleven ten. We'll also talk money spent,
and we let's talk about the girl scouts and what
they got going on and why they're starting to charge
a lot more money in the next couple of years.
So all that and more on the way on news
(05:49):
Radio eleven ten kfab.
Speaker 5 (05:52):
Emery Sunger on news radio eleven ten kfab.
Speaker 2 (05:56):
A Suffolk University slash USA Today. Pole ASR was released today.
Release shows Donald Trump up by eleven points among the
Latino vote in America. It's a national vote. It's pretty interesting.
I want your thoughts on this. You can call in it.
Four oh two five five eleven ten. Four h two
five five eleven ten. Kevin is on the phone line. Kevin,
(06:17):
Welcome to the show. What do you think about this?
Speaker 3 (06:19):
Hey, I'm Rick, Thanks for taking my call. I don't
trust none of them. I've been watching them use these
polls for about fifty years now, I'm in my mid fifties.
And thirty years ago they absolutely used to reflect those
cart trands in the opinions. But starting here about sixteen
years ago, that changed. And twelve years ago we definitely
(06:40):
or eight years ago we definitely know that changed because
they predicted Hillary to win everywhere and she lost dismally.
Those polls are no longer used to reflect trends or
to reflect opinion. They play into the hurt mentality where
if you've ever been in a crowd of people when
somebody's talking to him and he asked them a question,
they'll look left and right to see how their neighbors
rants will be for their answer because they don't want
(07:01):
to stand out.
Speaker 4 (07:03):
So the polls are used to shape.
Speaker 3 (07:04):
Opinion nowadays, not used to reflect it. Just about everything
that comes off of that MS media, anything that's coming
through Universal, Walt Disney, NBC, it's all just it's it's
plagarized and shaped and custom fitted to shape the way
you view the world. It's not news, it's narrative. If
you want news, unplug your television, go talk to your neighbor.
Speaker 2 (07:27):
Yeah, so it's interesting that you mentioned that. I just
can I ask Kevin, what do you think the narrative
they're trying to shape is if this is a kind
of a manufactured poll number here, it's.
Speaker 3 (07:38):
All about just confusing the waters at this point, mugging
it up as much as possible so that they can cheat. Sure,
we've been being set up for since the election cycle started.
That's why Kamala went from being the most unpopular person
on the planet to being leading pleasant President Trump and
all the battleground states in a short two week period.
(07:59):
I mean, nobody gets popularity like that. Nobody becomes that
much unpopular sight chick oh to becoming more popular than
the most popular president in history. Not buying none of that.
Speaker 2 (08:09):
Well, well, I would say most popular president in history
is a little bit of a tough stretch to say
about Trump, considering that Ronald Reagan won all but one
state in the nineteen eighty four election.
Speaker 3 (08:19):
But I wish we did accurate but electure results from
the twenty twenty so we could see who actually won.
Speaker 2 (08:25):
Well, I kept Kevin, Wait, Joe.
Speaker 3 (08:27):
Biden didn't even get forty nine million votes on that
that Trump got over.
Speaker 2 (08:30):
Here, Yeah, keV, Kevin, I'm talking about this poll though, Okay,
And this poll is showing that Trump is ahead by
eleven points among Latinos. Like, it's the opposite of what
you say. You're saying is happening.
Speaker 3 (08:41):
It's too good to be true. That's why I don't
believe it.
Speaker 2 (08:45):
Okay. If you said I would.
Speaker 3 (08:47):
Love I would love for him to be up like that,
I really would. I would absolutely love to see Donald
Trump win again, except for when he puts on the
little round bounced Israel. That just irritates me. Why do
we have a puche allegiance to oh Man?
Speaker 2 (09:01):
Well, Kevin, Kevin, you're a yeah, you're a you're firing away?
Gee is holy cow? All right, Well, I appreciate you
calling in, Kevin. There's a lot to unpack there, and yeah,
absolutely good you too, dang yeah, wow, Okay, you want
to talk about muddy in the waters. My waters are
muddy now, Gee is either way? You know this this Pole,
(09:25):
I find it to be. You know, I don't know
too good to be true. And maybe I'm naive thinking that,
you know, most of the stuff that we're hearing from poles. Yeah,
that doesn't mean like everybody who they want to pull
is answering the call. That doesn't mean that everybody that
they're reaching out to is telling the truth. But when
they are showing a similar poll of the same demographic
(09:47):
in twenty twenty four years ago, and they're showing that
it was Joe Biden winning and grabbing like fifty fifty
nine percent of the Latino vote that showed up in
twenty twenty, they're showing that and here we are four
years later ahead of this election, and the same demographic
(10:08):
was asked and they say thirty eight percent is supporting
the Democratic candidate. That's noteworthy to me, little less noteworthy,
but still noteworthy. Nonetheless, the African American vote in the
same study, the same poll in twenty twenty, they say
ninety two percent of African Americans voted for Joe Biden
and the Democrats. Four years later, that ninety two percent.
(10:30):
According to Selfulk University in USA. Today that's down to
seventy two percent. Now over ten percent of people refuse
to answer the question that identified as African American in
the poll, But that's those are still free agents or
they may not vote, which at a certain extent in
a demographic that so heavily usually supports one specific political party,
(10:51):
the Republicans have to consider that at least a win,
that they are being considered by at least a quarter
of the people in that demographic that generally does not
vot vote for that. So what can we learn from this? Well,
you know what I'm going to learn from it. I
do agree with Kevin at one point, you cannot trust
all the polls that you see. He is one hundred
percent right. Every single poll you saw going into that
(11:12):
election in twenty sixteen showed Hillary Clinton winning. She did
not win. In fact, she did not come close to winning.
You have to be ready for everything. I'm not going
to sit here and I'm not going to wax poetic
about the swing states and how you know, the election security,
which we talked about at length yesterday. If you would
like to listen to that, find it on the Emory
(11:32):
Songer podcast page. But if I'm looking at this from
a standpoint of I am going to be prepared for
every possible outcome. When they do those exit polls, when
we like tally up the early voting, which more and
more people are, you know, voting early, When more and
more people are talking about this and saying, hey, we
should have been ready for this, that and the other thing,
(11:54):
I'm not going to be surprised by any of it.
And that's I guess what, you know. I'm surprised by
this poll, but I'm not going to be surprised by
anything that actually happens on November fifth. Mary's on the
line real quick, will take care before we take the break. Hey, Mary,
what do you think?
Speaker 6 (12:10):
First of all, I think the polls are inaccurate because
when these posters do these polls, don't they pull the
people they want to pull to give the answers that
they want to get rather than random.
Speaker 2 (12:23):
Well, the only thing I would push back on that
is Suffolk University did a similar poll a few months
ago and the numbers were not close to the same.
So I mean I would I would be I would
be confused as to why Suffolk University would be changing
the way that they would do that if they're looking
for specific answers.
Speaker 6 (12:39):
Oh, I think they're doing the same thing.
Speaker 2 (12:41):
What do you mean?
Speaker 6 (12:41):
I think they're pulling the I think they're pulling the
people that they want to pull to get the answers.
They want to confuse the voters. But what'll do this
on polls all the time?
Speaker 2 (12:51):
Yeah? But okay, but to confuse the voters for how like?
Like what would they would they be like trying to
tell latinos, Hey, there's way more support for Trump now
than there was for like, is that the bottom line here,
because this is not what this number looked like before.
Speaker 6 (13:05):
No, Because I think the bottom line is just trying
to threaten, not threat and that's not the right words.
I think they're trying to let Latinos know that, hey,
Trump is ahead. Do you guys need to get out
their vote, because we of course want you know, who
to win, and that is you know, as a teacher,
I see that among the Latino students that they want
Kamala to win, and I think this is the way
(13:25):
of pushing the Latinos to the ballot box.
Speaker 2 (13:28):
I guess I can't rule that out. It just would
surprise me that, you know, they would take this poll
along with USA today and manufacture those results, you know,
to a tea to get the results they want. But
it's interesting. Mary appreciates the call. Real quick, let's get
to Rich, Rich, what's on your mind about this.
Speaker 4 (13:46):
There is a poll that you may want to call
out online. It's plymarket dot com. It's vastly different than
any of the other pools out there. It's not funded
by a specific side of with the political divide, and
it's it's statistically a bit more accurate on other events,
(14:07):
not necessarily just political elections. But if you go on
it today and check it out, it'd be interesting, Emory
if you kept tabs on how these polls are reporting
today two weeks before the election, and then you went
back after the election to see which of the polls
is most accurate. I think this one would stack right
up here the very top.
Speaker 2 (14:25):
Interesting, right, what's it.
Speaker 4 (14:26):
Called polymarket dot com p O L Y M A
r K E T dot com.
Speaker 2 (14:33):
All right, we'll look into that. Thanks appreciate the call, Rich,
thanks for lessing.
Speaker 4 (14:36):
Thank you.
Speaker 2 (14:38):
Yeah, okay, that is an interesting discussion and interesting opinions
on this. We can talk about this a little bit
more later. But I wanted to get to a contest
right now. If you're listening to us, I want you
to have a chance to win a pair of tickets.
Got a pair of tickets to the Raw Music Festival.
The Rock of Ages revisited and let's go ahead. We
just mentioned the fifty nine percent of Latino's currently supporting
Donald Trump. How about the fifty ninth caller. Fifty ninth caller,
(14:59):
you're going to get too, tickets a two day pass
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(15:19):
Radio eleven ten KFAB and.
Speaker 5 (15:21):
Maurice Sonner on News Radio eleven ten KFAB.
Speaker 2 (15:26):
All right, so what we were talking about was polling.
Last caller that we had mentioned a website called polymarket
dot com as like polls that he found to be
like pretty accurate. Now I'm not here to tell him
how to think about polls, and we're talking about polls
in general because Donald Trump's polling really well with Latino
(15:47):
votes and that came from a Suffolk University in USA
today poll. I don't think this is a polling website.
It's an interesting website, but this looks more like a
gamble website. You buy your vote, And I can see
why somebody who's conservative head of this presidential election would
be interested in this being like what they want to
(16:09):
see and hear because I clicked on swing States. Matt,
you're a part mathematician. Yeah, I'm gonna give you who
this website is taking the most action on from people
betting on this, Okay, because what you can do is
you can bet Republican yes or no, Democrat yes or no.
So basically like you're buying a share of however much
(16:30):
money that there's going, like the thing that you're buying
is going to actually happening, like you know what I'm saying. Sure,
So like you could bet like Pennsylvania, for instance, if
you've bet yes for the Republican and you click the
number or the thing yes, you can like based on
the polling that it's getting, you could put at like
(16:52):
it says if you put ten dollars in, you could
win fifteen dollars and eighty seven cents. It kind of
works like a market, right, So you're not really like
enough people are betting that you're not going to double
your money or anything. But that's just the action it's
taking on it, right, it's not necessarily an actual poll.
You can also bet the Republican no, will not. If
you bet ten dollars on a Republican to not win
(17:12):
in the presidential election in Pennsylvania, that would win you
twenty six dollars and thirty two cents if that happens.
So it's well over double your money based on the
way that it's polling. That makes sense that it makes
sense of that.
Speaker 1 (17:24):
This website is a it's like a dream come true
for that person who thinks they're right about everything.
Speaker 2 (17:29):
Yes, because they have sports politics like things in pop culture.
It's I like it. It's kind of cool to look at. Yeah,
I'm not sure this is operating as a poll. I
think this is operating as kind of like a quasi
stock market on pop culture.
Speaker 1 (17:45):
Which is a really interesting idea and I like it. Yeah,
I want to reiterate that. I think that's a cool idea,
especially if you're into like the sports betting thing. You
can go in here and you can just drop some
money into stuff that like you're passionate about and you
think you know what's going to happen. Then by all
means yeah, and i'd wonder can you create more than
one account?
Speaker 2 (18:03):
You know what I mean? Like that? That's what I
would wonder. Well, And it's about the money that it's taking, right,
not like if somebody decides I'm betting five thousand dollars
on this. You know how much money in volume the
Pennsylvania presidential election winner poll has between Republican Democrat or
other eighteen point two million dollars in volume. Wow, that
(18:24):
sounds crazy to me. That sounds crazy to me that
people are spending that much money basically gambling on this
on this website. So it's hard for me to be like, yeah,
this is a poll. Like, I'm not going to treat
this like a poll. It's not a poll. It's a
cool idea. I wouldn't call it a poll. So Matt
as the as my resident mathematician here, I'm going to
tell you the results here based on this if it
(18:46):
were a poll, and you tell me how many it shows.
For the Republican there are seven swing stands. Okay, Pennsylvania
Republican sixty three percent to thirty nine percent, So that's
one for the Republican. Michigan Republican sixty percent, the Democrat
forty one percent. That's two. North Carolina Republican seventy one
percent the Democrat twenty nine percent. That's three. There you go.
Speaker 1 (19:10):
Sorry, I'm just reading some of these crazy prop bets
on this site.
Speaker 2 (19:13):
Uh. Nevada Republican sixty three percent, Democrat thirty seven percent.
That's four. Georgia Republican seventy two percent, Democrat twenty nine percent.
Five Arizona Republican seventy five percent Democrat twenty six percent, six,
Wisconsin Republican fifty seven percent, Democrat forty two percent all seven. Now,
(19:37):
you can also make a bet that Trump wins every
swing state. You can buy yes or buy no. It
says right now thirty three percent chance that that is
a yes. Based on the numbers that I'm seeing all
these quote unquote polls or markets, h looks like he's
highly favored to win all seven of those based on
the money that they're bringing in. Now, if you look
(19:57):
at this, it says how many swing states will Trump win?
You can put money on that one through seven? What
do you think has the highest odds? One through seven
on this website? Arizona? No, I'm talking like one through seven?
How many? How many states does he win? Of the seven? Oh,
I see what's the highest? What like? What has the
highest What are people putting the most money on?
Speaker 1 (20:17):
I guess is that they're betting on how many he
will I'm between four and five. I'll say five.
Speaker 2 (20:22):
It's seven, Okay, okay, thirty two percent have laid down seven.
Speaker 1 (20:26):
So is it possible? Now we talk about demographics. YouTube
is a predominantly male used platform.
Speaker 2 (20:34):
YouTube is you can you can look at the demographics.
Speaker 1 (20:37):
Is it possible that that polymarket and you know, isn't
purely spread among everyone equally? Right like that that I
see these results in it makes me wonder, It should
make you wonder.
Speaker 2 (20:48):
And again I'm not here to say that this isn't
a poll and I'm not trying to, you know, correct
somebody who called in and said that they'd put this
the polling that they're seeing on this above anything else.
This isn't polling you. This is like betting. This is
like trading, like stock market trading on pop culture type stuff.
I love the idea, it's really cool. I would not
(21:09):
I would not put stock in. This is like actual polls.
And for the same reason you just mentioned is you
want to talk about selective marketing, Like which side of
the aisle, based on these numbers do you think is
showing up here and dropping a bunch of money on
poly market betting on what they think is going to happen.
I think we need to check ourselves a little bit
as to what we're taking as like actual polls. Like
(21:32):
I had the person before that said don't trust Stuffolk University,
and you say, today they're telling you what they what
they want you to think that way they can mobilize
the other side. And then I had a guy, you know,
call right in after, and I'm trying not to be like,
this isn't meant to, you know, be disrespectful anything, but
I had a guy called right after It's like, hey,
I think the polling on poly market would be a
lot more this is this is all just Republicans, Like,
(21:53):
there's no way that that many Democrats, based on the
odds that I'm seeing here, are making bets on the
Democratic side of things, unless they're hedging themselves.
Speaker 1 (22:01):
To further your point. I'm just looking at the pop
culture page, and there are several things that you can
bet on that are specific to Donald Trump and what
he might say or not say, and there's far less
for Kamala. So that would give credence to the idea
that maybe people who are on.
Speaker 2 (22:17):
This site generally tend to be more Republican or conservative
and willing to spend said money on things, because hey,
it's fun to put your money into a market, especially
in stuff that you think you know what's going to happen,
unlike you know, the s and ps and the nasdas
and whatever. So there's that it's two forty nine. Thanks
for listening. We'll talk more on news radio eleven ten kfab.
Speaker 5 (22:39):
Emery Sunger on news Radio eleven ten kfab.
Speaker 4 (22:46):
Thanks.
Speaker 2 (22:47):
It's pretty interesting to see, like how the betting odds
for all of these are pretty similar. Right, So they
have bet online, betfair, betsn Nevada, bwyen or b win points,
bet Polymarket, and s markets and all of them are
either between fifty eight and sixty two percent for Trump.
So Trump on all of them is taking the most action.
(23:11):
And that's what that means. Right when there's you know,
when the Yankees are favored over the Dodgers in the
World Series, that has everything to do with the amount
of money that people are betting on the Yankees because
sportsbooks want to make that as even as possible, right,
They want to like, hey, if you really want to
make more money, you're going to vote on the underdog
(23:32):
in this case, Kamala Harris. There's gonna be less bets,
but about the same amount of money because people are
going to be you know, like, hey, I'm going to
be making bank if she wins. Kind of thing. Right,
You want to know a secret now that we're talking
about betting what. I watched Eight Men Out. Have you
seen that movie. It's about the nineteen nineteen Black Sox, okay,
(23:54):
which is the White Sox who through the World Series.
Kind of the story of the setup of that and
like how it happened, pretty historically accurate. It's lauded by historians.
It's pretty boring if you're not into the baseball or
guy guy stuff because it's very guy centric. Gambling the
great period piece of the late nineteen teens. I got
(24:14):
obsessed with gambling after that I was like seventeen, got
obsessed with it. I knew I couldn't do it, and
my mom was like, you know, I mean there was
nowhere to gamble. But I just thought it was so
cool to look at some of those guys and the
way they would talk about I'm going to put ten
grand on the whole show, you know, And I just
wanted to be like that. So I started my own
(24:36):
high school sportsbook. Wow in my high school you did? Yeah.
So I would pick like three or four sporting events
that were happening that weekend, you know. I'd take like
some of the big, you know, football games, and if
the World Series was happening, maybe the World Series. But
I would pick you know, three or four games I
would make. I didn't operate it as like a true
bookie would and take action on both sides. I basically
(24:59):
just picked a side and dared people that were interested
in also, you know, throwing a couple of bucks on
some stuff and letting them take the other side. So
you know, for instance, if you're looking at, you know,
some of the big games this week, and I certainly
would have had, say Alabama and Missouri, two ranked teams.
Alabama's got to have it, Missouri's got to have it Alabama,
(25:20):
you know, I would. I wouldn't even take a spread.
It would be you know, like down the line, who
do you got? And I would pick a few games
that I felt really good about one side. I'd pick
that side and then dare other people basically to throw
five bucks on it against me. And if I won
like three of the four games in a week, I'm
really I'm rolling in some dough. You know. Seventeen year
(25:42):
old Emory was all of a sudden making you know,
forty fifty bucks a week on his little mini gambling bookiness.
So the house always wins. Well, you just have to
know what you're what you're doing, target the right people.
You want to know what ended up happening. At the
end of that, I did like this whole Bowl season thing.
I made picks on every single Bowl, every single Bowl
(26:05):
game and let people go in and like bet single
dollars and stuff on it. It took a ton of
time to unpack and I only made like thirty dollars
on it. At that point, I was like, I'm not
sure this is worth it. And I haven't really been
that big of a sports gambling guy since I think
it should be legal. But you know, like I feel
like I got it all out of my system right
(26:25):
there and that you know that winter, you know. So anyway, Hey,
I want to talk about the Girl Scouts. I'll tell
you why. I want you to listen to the show,
and when we come back to the top of the hour,
I'm going to talk about what the Girl Scouts got
going on. I need some education on this stuff, so
listen up. If you're familiar with the Girl Scouts news,
ready eleven to ten kf it b
Interested reseal. Are they gently used? What are we talking?
Have they sat in somebody's pocket for a while.
Speaker 2 (00:05):
No, No, these are something that somebody bought for regular
price with the sole intent to reseal them for like
triple the price. Man, don't you just love capitalism? Baby?
Oh yeah, Well, where's the first game? Yank? Is it
in New York or LA? I think it's La? Okay, yeah,
you know what. It's on Friday.
Speaker 1 (00:24):
I recently learned that I'm a casual baseball fan. Oh no,
because I and I understand the perspective. But only casual
baseball fans are excited for the series. I'm pumped for
this series. Oh I am like. It doesn't make you
I don't want to hide it. That doesn't make you casual.
It just makes you, you know, a little bit more
willing to uh, a.
Speaker 2 (00:45):
Little bit of a bandwagon guy.
Speaker 1 (00:46):
No, just willing to to Like. I just I'll accept
those terms.
Speaker 2 (00:49):
I will. I I'm okay with I hate both of
these teams, Yeah, I get that, but like, like, some
of the players are fun to watch, and if they're
playing for other teams, I'd be totally all in. Unfortunately
for me, I just I can't see past the l
A or the n Y on these hats, and that's
my big issue. So forgive me, forgive me, get it.
I get it. It's kind of like Bulbaffett going toe
(01:11):
to toe against you know, what's the guy with the
with the helmet. I can't think of his name, Darth Vader.
That's the guy. I could remember Bulba Fete but not
Darth Vader. Yeah, you got it. You got some issues, bro, man,
Is that supposed to be a horse? Boba fet? No,
he's a duck. What's happening right now?
Speaker 3 (01:33):
Yeah?
Speaker 2 (01:33):
I was just like the Breeders Cup's coming up over
at del Mar. Yeah, you like the Breeders Cup, best
horse racing in the world. I'm going to watch that
before I watched the World Series anyway. All right, a
couple of things in the news that I wanted to
touch on Donald Trump meeting with some Latino leaders at
Trump National Doral and what was that all about?
Speaker 4 (01:55):
Right?
Speaker 2 (01:55):
Oh, that's right. A brand new poll shows that he's
leading leading and this is national, so again they don't
vote like this, but he's leading Kamala Harris in Latino vote.
But I guess how many guess how many. Trump is
in the lead eleven percent. He's he's winning the Latino
(02:17):
vote by eleven percent. Latino voters backing Trump forty nine
to thirty eight percent. It's in a USA today Suffolk
University poll. I just that is that's a that's a
head scratcher to me. And that's a voting block that
you would talk about, like, hey, that could actually make
a huge difference in some states. Now is it the
(02:40):
right states? Is it the states that the Republicans need?
That truly be the question, Saint pol African American voters
prefer Kamala Harris seventy two to seventeen percent. That leaves
over ten percent that didn't elect to make a determination.
But they say that's not even usually you know, African
(03:00):
Americans are leaning to the left more than sixty percent.
That's only a fifty five percent edge. Now, again, that
have to be in the right area. So what did
Joe Biden do in the twenty twenty race. A Pew
Research Center analysis said that ninety two percent of votes
from African American voters went to Joe Biden in twenty twenty.
(03:22):
That is twenty percent more than Kamala is polling at
right now, among African American voters, twenty points fifty nine
percent of Latino voters supported Biden in the twenty twenty race. Currently,
thirty eight percent say they would vote twenty one percent
less they would vote for Kamala Harris. So I have
to ask, is this a situation where we could be
(03:46):
looking at those two generally always left leaning demographics not
actively supporting Kamala Harris, this time a woman of color,
as potentially the shortfall that she would find in the
race itself. And what does that mean for the rhetoric
(04:06):
that we've been talking about? Right Because everything that we
know about this election, a lot of it's immigration based,
a lot of it is hey law and order based,
a lot of it's also economic based. How much of
this is Donald Trump finding a way to be more
appealing to that voter block or is it that the
(04:26):
Biden administration has had such abject failure according to those
voter blocks that they're not interested in voting for a successor,
which is you would think going to have a pretty
similar at least similar administration themselves. Now, again, this is
a pull. I don't know how much you can trust polls, especially,
you know, considering the millions and millions of people that
(04:48):
are going to be voting, and these polls generally are
only of a thousand or a couple thousand people. They're
worth mentioning because they can illustrate trends. This is certainly
a very strange trend, but it's a big enough one
that I felt like we had to talk about if
that's going to be how it actually sits. It's going
to be tough for me to understand how she's going
to find a way to win some of these toss
(05:08):
up states. At the same time, who the heck knows
At this point, We've been seeing different movements back and forth.
You know. I find it interesting that you say today
in Suffolk University, a real well respected polling place, when
they when they release a poll, usually people take it
pretty seriously when it says Donald Trump has an eleven
(05:28):
point lead on Kamala Harris in the Latino vote, that
that's got to catch some eyes. It's got to If
you've got thoughts, you can call us now at four
o two five five eight eleven ten. Four oh two
five five eight eleven ten. We'll also talk money spent,
and we let's talk about the girl scouts and what
they got going on and why they're starting to charge
a lot more money in the next couple of years.
So all that and more on the way on news
(05:49):
Radio eleven ten kfab.
Speaker 5 (05:52):
Emery Sunger on news radio eleven ten kfab.
Speaker 2 (05:56):
A Suffolk University slash USA Today. Pole ASR was released today.
Release shows Donald Trump up by eleven points among the
Latino vote in America. It's a national vote. It's pretty interesting.
I want your thoughts on this. You can call in it.
Four oh two five five eleven ten. Four h two
five five eleven ten. Kevin is on the phone line. Kevin,
(06:17):
Welcome to the show. What do you think about this?
Speaker 3 (06:19):
Hey, I'm Rick, Thanks for taking my call. I don't
trust none of them. I've been watching them use these
polls for about fifty years now, I'm in my mid fifties.
And thirty years ago they absolutely used to reflect those
cart trands in the opinions. But starting here about sixteen
years ago, that changed. And twelve years ago we definitely
(06:40):
or eight years ago we definitely know that changed because
they predicted Hillary to win everywhere and she lost dismally.
Those polls are no longer used to reflect trends or
to reflect opinion. They play into the hurt mentality where
if you've ever been in a crowd of people when
somebody's talking to him and he asked them a question,
they'll look left and right to see how their neighbors
rants will be for their answer because they don't want
(07:01):
to stand out.
Speaker 4 (07:03):
So the polls are used to shape.
Speaker 3 (07:04):
Opinion nowadays, not used to reflect it. Just about everything
that comes off of that MS media, anything that's coming
through Universal, Walt Disney, NBC, it's all just it's it's
plagarized and shaped and custom fitted to shape the way
you view the world. It's not news, it's narrative. If
you want news, unplug your television, go talk to your neighbor.
Speaker 2 (07:27):
Yeah, so it's interesting that you mentioned that. I just
can I ask Kevin, what do you think the narrative
they're trying to shape is if this is a kind
of a manufactured poll number here, it's.
Speaker 3 (07:38):
All about just confusing the waters at this point, mugging
it up as much as possible so that they can cheat. Sure,
we've been being set up for since the election cycle started.
That's why Kamala went from being the most unpopular person
on the planet to being leading pleasant President Trump and
all the battleground states in a short two week period.
(07:59):
I mean, nobody gets popularity like that. Nobody becomes that
much unpopular sight chick oh to becoming more popular than
the most popular president in history. Not buying none of that.
Speaker 2 (08:09):
Well, well, I would say most popular president in history
is a little bit of a tough stretch to say
about Trump, considering that Ronald Reagan won all but one
state in the nineteen eighty four election.
Speaker 3 (08:19):
But I wish we did accurate but electure results from
the twenty twenty so we could see who actually won.
Speaker 2 (08:25):
Well, I kept Kevin, Wait, Joe.
Speaker 3 (08:27):
Biden didn't even get forty nine million votes on that
that Trump got over.
Speaker 2 (08:30):
Here, Yeah, keV, Kevin, I'm talking about this poll though, Okay,
And this poll is showing that Trump is ahead by
eleven points among Latinos. Like, it's the opposite of what
you say. You're saying is happening.
Speaker 3 (08:41):
It's too good to be true. That's why I don't
believe it.
Speaker 2 (08:45):
Okay. If you said I would.
Speaker 3 (08:47):
Love I would love for him to be up like that,
I really would. I would absolutely love to see Donald
Trump win again, except for when he puts on the
little round bounced Israel. That just irritates me. Why do
we have a puche allegiance to oh Man?
Speaker 2 (09:01):
Well, Kevin, Kevin, you're a yeah, you're a you're firing away?
Gee is holy cow? All right, Well, I appreciate you
calling in, Kevin. There's a lot to unpack there, and yeah,
absolutely good you too, dang yeah, wow, Okay, you want
to talk about muddy in the waters. My waters are
muddy now, Gee is either way? You know this this Pole,
(09:25):
I find it to be. You know, I don't know
too good to be true. And maybe I'm naive thinking that,
you know, most of the stuff that we're hearing from poles. Yeah,
that doesn't mean like everybody who they want to pull
is answering the call. That doesn't mean that everybody that
they're reaching out to is telling the truth. But when
they are showing a similar poll of the same demographic
(09:47):
in twenty twenty four years ago, and they're showing that
it was Joe Biden winning and grabbing like fifty fifty
nine percent of the Latino vote that showed up in
twenty twenty, they're showing that and here we are four
years later ahead of this election, and the same demographic
(10:08):
was asked and they say thirty eight percent is supporting
the Democratic candidate. That's noteworthy to me, little less noteworthy,
but still noteworthy. Nonetheless, the African American vote in the
same study, the same poll in twenty twenty, they say
ninety two percent of African Americans voted for Joe Biden
and the Democrats. Four years later, that ninety two percent.
(10:30):
According to Selfulk University in USA. Today that's down to
seventy two percent. Now over ten percent of people refuse
to answer the question that identified as African American in
the poll, But that's those are still free agents or
they may not vote, which at a certain extent in
a demographic that so heavily usually supports one specific political party,
(10:51):
the Republicans have to consider that at least a win,
that they are being considered by at least a quarter
of the people in that demographic that generally does not
vot vote for that. So what can we learn from this? Well,
you know what I'm going to learn from it. I
do agree with Kevin at one point, you cannot trust
all the polls that you see. He is one hundred
percent right. Every single poll you saw going into that
(11:12):
election in twenty sixteen showed Hillary Clinton winning. She did
not win. In fact, she did not come close to winning.
You have to be ready for everything. I'm not going
to sit here and I'm not going to wax poetic
about the swing states and how you know, the election security,
which we talked about at length yesterday. If you would
like to listen to that, find it on the Emory
(11:32):
Songer podcast page. But if I'm looking at this from
a standpoint of I am going to be prepared for
every possible outcome. When they do those exit polls, when
we like tally up the early voting, which more and
more people are, you know, voting early, When more and
more people are talking about this and saying, hey, we
should have been ready for this, that and the other thing,
(11:54):
I'm not going to be surprised by any of it.
And that's I guess what, you know. I'm surprised by
this poll, but I'm not going to be surprised by
anything that actually happens on November fifth. Mary's on the
line real quick, will take care before we take the break. Hey, Mary,
what do you think?
Speaker 6 (12:10):
First of all, I think the polls are inaccurate because
when these posters do these polls, don't they pull the
people they want to pull to give the answers that
they want to get rather than random.
Speaker 2 (12:23):
Well, the only thing I would push back on that
is Suffolk University did a similar poll a few months
ago and the numbers were not close to the same.
So I mean I would I would be I would
be confused as to why Suffolk University would be changing
the way that they would do that if they're looking
for specific answers.
Speaker 6 (12:39):
Oh, I think they're doing the same thing.
Speaker 2 (12:41):
What do you mean?
Speaker 6 (12:41):
I think they're pulling the I think they're pulling the
people that they want to pull to get the answers.
They want to confuse the voters. But what'll do this
on polls all the time?
Speaker 2 (12:51):
Yeah? But okay, but to confuse the voters for how like?
Like what would they would they be like trying to
tell latinos, Hey, there's way more support for Trump now
than there was for like, is that the bottom line here,
because this is not what this number looked like before.
Speaker 6 (13:05):
No, Because I think the bottom line is just trying
to threaten, not threat and that's not the right words.
I think they're trying to let Latinos know that, hey,
Trump is ahead. Do you guys need to get out
their vote, because we of course want you know, who
to win, and that is you know, as a teacher,
I see that among the Latino students that they want
Kamala to win, and I think this is the way
(13:25):
of pushing the Latinos to the ballot box.
Speaker 2 (13:28):
I guess I can't rule that out. It just would
surprise me that, you know, they would take this poll
along with USA today and manufacture those results, you know,
to a tea to get the results they want. But
it's interesting. Mary appreciates the call. Real quick, let's get
to Rich, Rich, what's on your mind about this.
Speaker 4 (13:46):
There is a poll that you may want to call
out online. It's plymarket dot com. It's vastly different than
any of the other pools out there. It's not funded
by a specific side of with the political divide, and
it's it's statistically a bit more accurate on other events,
(14:07):
not necessarily just political elections. But if you go on
it today and check it out, it'd be interesting, Emory
if you kept tabs on how these polls are reporting
today two weeks before the election, and then you went
back after the election to see which of the polls
is most accurate. I think this one would stack right
up here the very top.
Speaker 2 (14:25):
Interesting, right, what's it.
Speaker 4 (14:26):
Called polymarket dot com p O L Y M A
r K E T dot com.
Speaker 2 (14:33):
All right, we'll look into that. Thanks appreciate the call, Rich,
thanks for lessing.
Speaker 4 (14:36):
Thank you.
Speaker 2 (14:38):
Yeah, okay, that is an interesting discussion and interesting opinions
on this. We can talk about this a little bit
more later. But I wanted to get to a contest
right now. If you're listening to us, I want you
to have a chance to win a pair of tickets.
Got a pair of tickets to the Raw Music Festival.
The Rock of Ages revisited and let's go ahead. We
just mentioned the fifty nine percent of Latino's currently supporting
Donald Trump. How about the fifty ninth caller. Fifty ninth caller,
(14:59):
you're going to get too, tickets a two day pass
to the Raw Music Festival, which is coming up on
the first in the second of November. Just gonna be awesome.
Tributes to so many great musical artists in the rock genre.
Call us now at four two, five, five, eight eleven
ten four h two five five eight to eleven ten
for a pair of two day passes to the Roar
Music Festival. Caller fifty nine will win them on news
(15:19):
Radio eleven ten KFAB and.
Speaker 5 (15:21):
Maurice Sonner on News Radio eleven ten KFAB.
Speaker 2 (15:26):
All right, so what we were talking about was polling.
Last caller that we had mentioned a website called polymarket
dot com as like polls that he found to be
like pretty accurate. Now I'm not here to tell him
how to think about polls, and we're talking about polls
in general because Donald Trump's polling really well with Latino
(15:47):
votes and that came from a Suffolk University in USA
today poll. I don't think this is a polling website.
It's an interesting website, but this looks more like a
gamble website. You buy your vote, And I can see
why somebody who's conservative head of this presidential election would
be interested in this being like what they want to
(16:09):
see and hear because I clicked on swing States. Matt,
you're a part mathematician. Yeah, I'm gonna give you who
this website is taking the most action on from people
betting on this, Okay, because what you can do is
you can bet Republican yes or no, Democrat yes or no.
So basically like you're buying a share of however much
(16:30):
money that there's going, like the thing that you're buying
is going to actually happening, like you know what I'm saying. Sure,
So like you could bet like Pennsylvania, for instance, if
you've bet yes for the Republican and you click the
number or the thing yes, you can like based on
the polling that it's getting, you could put at like
(16:52):
it says if you put ten dollars in, you could
win fifteen dollars and eighty seven cents. It kind of
works like a market, right, So you're not really like
enough people are betting that you're not going to double
your money or anything. But that's just the action it's
taking on it, right, it's not necessarily an actual poll.
You can also bet the Republican no, will not. If
you bet ten dollars on a Republican to not win
(17:12):
in the presidential election in Pennsylvania, that would win you
twenty six dollars and thirty two cents if that happens.
So it's well over double your money based on the
way that it's polling. That makes sense that it makes
sense of that.
Speaker 1 (17:24):
This website is a it's like a dream come true
for that person who thinks they're right about everything.
Speaker 2 (17:29):
Yes, because they have sports politics like things in pop culture.
It's I like it. It's kind of cool to look at. Yeah,
I'm not sure this is operating as a poll. I
think this is operating as kind of like a quasi
stock market on pop culture.
Speaker 1 (17:45):
Which is a really interesting idea and I like it. Yeah,
I want to reiterate that. I think that's a cool idea,
especially if you're into like the sports betting thing. You
can go in here and you can just drop some
money into stuff that like you're passionate about and you
think you know what's going to happen. Then by all
means yeah, and i'd wonder can you create more than
one account?
Speaker 2 (18:03):
You know what I mean? Like that? That's what I
would wonder. Well, And it's about the money that it's taking, right,
not like if somebody decides I'm betting five thousand dollars
on this. You know how much money in volume the
Pennsylvania presidential election winner poll has between Republican Democrat or
other eighteen point two million dollars in volume. Wow, that
(18:24):
sounds crazy to me. That sounds crazy to me that
people are spending that much money basically gambling on this
on this website. So it's hard for me to be like, yeah,
this is a poll. Like, I'm not going to treat
this like a poll. It's not a poll. It's a
cool idea. I wouldn't call it a poll. So Matt
as the as my resident mathematician here, I'm going to
tell you the results here based on this if it
(18:46):
were a poll, and you tell me how many it shows.
For the Republican there are seven swing stands. Okay, Pennsylvania
Republican sixty three percent to thirty nine percent, So that's
one for the Republican. Michigan Republican sixty percent, the Democrat
forty one percent. That's two. North Carolina Republican seventy one
percent the Democrat twenty nine percent. That's three. There you go.
Speaker 1 (19:10):
Sorry, I'm just reading some of these crazy prop bets
on this site.
Speaker 2 (19:13):
Uh. Nevada Republican sixty three percent, Democrat thirty seven percent.
That's four. Georgia Republican seventy two percent, Democrat twenty nine percent.
Five Arizona Republican seventy five percent Democrat twenty six percent, six,
Wisconsin Republican fifty seven percent, Democrat forty two percent all seven. Now,
(19:37):
you can also make a bet that Trump wins every
swing state. You can buy yes or buy no. It
says right now thirty three percent chance that that is
a yes. Based on the numbers that I'm seeing all
these quote unquote polls or markets, h looks like he's
highly favored to win all seven of those based on
the money that they're bringing in. Now, if you look
(19:57):
at this, it says how many swing states will Trump win?
You can put money on that one through seven? What
do you think has the highest odds? One through seven
on this website? Arizona? No, I'm talking like one through seven?
How many? How many states does he win? Of the seven? Oh,
I see what's the highest? What like? What has the
highest What are people putting the most money on?
Speaker 1 (20:17):
I guess is that they're betting on how many he
will I'm between four and five. I'll say five.
Speaker 2 (20:22):
It's seven, Okay, okay, thirty two percent have laid down seven.
Speaker 1 (20:26):
So is it possible? Now we talk about demographics. YouTube
is a predominantly male used platform.
Speaker 2 (20:34):
YouTube is you can you can look at the demographics.
Speaker 1 (20:37):
Is it possible that that polymarket and you know, isn't
purely spread among everyone equally? Right like that that I
see these results in it makes me wonder, It should
make you wonder.
Speaker 2 (20:48):
And again I'm not here to say that this isn't
a poll and I'm not trying to, you know, correct
somebody who called in and said that they'd put this
the polling that they're seeing on this above anything else.
This isn't polling you. This is like betting. This is
like trading, like stock market trading on pop culture type stuff.
I love the idea, it's really cool. I would not
(21:09):
I would not put stock in. This is like actual polls.
And for the same reason you just mentioned is you
want to talk about selective marketing, Like which side of
the aisle, based on these numbers do you think is
showing up here and dropping a bunch of money on
poly market betting on what they think is going to happen.
I think we need to check ourselves a little bit
as to what we're taking as like actual polls. Like
(21:32):
I had the person before that said don't trust Stuffolk University,
and you say, today they're telling you what they what
they want you to think that way they can mobilize
the other side. And then I had a guy, you know,
call right in after, and I'm trying not to be like,
this isn't meant to, you know, be disrespectful anything, but
I had a guy called right after It's like, hey,
I think the polling on poly market would be a
lot more this is this is all just Republicans, Like,
(21:53):
there's no way that that many Democrats, based on the
odds that I'm seeing here, are making bets on the
Democratic side of things, unless they're hedging themselves.
Speaker 1 (22:01):
To further your point. I'm just looking at the pop
culture page, and there are several things that you can
bet on that are specific to Donald Trump and what
he might say or not say, and there's far less
for Kamala. So that would give credence to the idea
that maybe people who are on.
Speaker 2 (22:17):
This site generally tend to be more Republican or conservative
and willing to spend said money on things, because hey,
it's fun to put your money into a market, especially
in stuff that you think you know what's going to happen,
unlike you know, the s and ps and the nasdas
and whatever. So there's that it's two forty nine. Thanks
for listening. We'll talk more on news radio eleven ten kfab.
Speaker 5 (22:39):
Emery Sunger on news Radio eleven ten kfab.
Speaker 4 (22:46):
Thanks.
Speaker 2 (22:47):
It's pretty interesting to see, like how the betting odds
for all of these are pretty similar. Right, So they
have bet online, betfair, betsn Nevada, bwyen or b win points,
bet Polymarket, and s markets and all of them are
either between fifty eight and sixty two percent for Trump.
So Trump on all of them is taking the most action.
(23:11):
And that's what that means. Right when there's you know,
when the Yankees are favored over the Dodgers in the
World Series, that has everything to do with the amount
of money that people are betting on the Yankees because
sportsbooks want to make that as even as possible, right,
They want to like, hey, if you really want to
make more money, you're going to vote on the underdog
(23:32):
in this case, Kamala Harris. There's gonna be less bets,
but about the same amount of money because people are
going to be you know, like, hey, I'm going to
be making bank if she wins. Kind of thing. Right,
You want to know a secret now that we're talking
about betting what. I watched Eight Men Out. Have you
seen that movie. It's about the nineteen nineteen Black Sox, okay,
(23:54):
which is the White Sox who through the World Series.
Kind of the story of the setup of that and
like how it happened, pretty historically accurate. It's lauded by historians.
It's pretty boring if you're not into the baseball or
guy guy stuff because it's very guy centric. Gambling the
great period piece of the late nineteen teens. I got
(24:14):
obsessed with gambling after that I was like seventeen, got
obsessed with it. I knew I couldn't do it, and
my mom was like, you know, I mean there was
nowhere to gamble. But I just thought it was so
cool to look at some of those guys and the
way they would talk about I'm going to put ten
grand on the whole show, you know, And I just
wanted to be like that. So I started my own
(24:36):
high school sportsbook. Wow in my high school you did? Yeah.
So I would pick like three or four sporting events
that were happening that weekend, you know. I'd take like
some of the big, you know, football games, and if
the World Series was happening, maybe the World Series. But
I would pick you know, three or four games I
would make. I didn't operate it as like a true
bookie would and take action on both sides. I basically
(24:59):
just picked a side and dared people that were interested
in also, you know, throwing a couple of bucks on
some stuff and letting them take the other side. So
you know, for instance, if you're looking at, you know,
some of the big games this week, and I certainly
would have had, say Alabama and Missouri, two ranked teams.
Alabama's got to have it, Missouri's got to have it Alabama,
(25:20):
you know, I would. I wouldn't even take a spread.
It would be you know, like down the line, who
do you got? And I would pick a few games
that I felt really good about one side. I'd pick
that side and then dare other people basically to throw
five bucks on it against me. And if I won
like three of the four games in a week, I'm
really I'm rolling in some dough. You know. Seventeen year
(25:42):
old Emory was all of a sudden making you know,
forty fifty bucks a week on his little mini gambling bookiness.
So the house always wins. Well, you just have to
know what you're what you're doing, target the right people.
You want to know what ended up happening. At the
end of that, I did like this whole Bowl season thing.
I made picks on every single Bowl, every single Bowl
(26:05):
game and let people go in and like bet single
dollars and stuff on it. It took a ton of
time to unpack and I only made like thirty dollars
on it. At that point, I was like, I'm not
sure this is worth it. And I haven't really been
that big of a sports gambling guy since I think
it should be legal. But you know, like I feel
like I got it all out of my system right
(26:25):
there and that you know that winter, you know. So anyway, Hey,
I want to talk about the Girl Scouts. I'll tell
you why. I want you to listen to the show,
and when we come back to the top of the hour,
I'm going to talk about what the Girl Scouts got
going on. I need some education on this stuff, so
listen up. If you're familiar with the Girl Scouts news,
ready eleven to ten kf it b
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