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May 28, 2025 18 mins

Seriously underwater mortgages are rising, and that’s the big takeaway from this episode of the Paper Trail podcast! The crew dives into the fresh data from Adam's Q1 2025 Home Equity report, revealing that now 4% of U.S. mortgages are in deep water, meaning folks owe way more than their homes are worth. They chat about how this trend could lead to more foreclosures and what savvy investors can do to prep for the upcoming wave of opportunities—or challenges, depending on how you roll with it. With plenty of properties still equity-rich, they emphasize the growing divide in the market, and how building the right team now can set investors up for success later. So, kick back and get ready for some solid insights on navigating this shifting landscape!

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Episode Transcript

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(00:44):
Welcome back to the PaperTrail podcast where we uncover the
trends, tactics and real timemoves shaping mortgage note investing
today.
In this episode we are goingto break down some powerful data
from Adam's brand new Q1 2025Home Equity and underwater report.

(01:05):
Now what was the headline?
Seriously underwater mortgagesare on the rise.
Now that's just not a marketdata point.
It should be a wake up callfor investors.
While this increase still hasmore homes than ever having plenty
of equity, it's a trend andwe're going to talk about this trend

(01:28):
and what it means for noteinvestors and strategy as well as
inventory.
Talk about why we're likely tosee more foreclosures and lenders
taking properties back and howsmart investors can prepare by building
the right team today.
So let's dive in.

(01:51):
First we're going to talkabout the data.
What did Adam find?
And for those looking, Adam isa T T O M.
It's a great source for realestate data.
They found that 4% of USmortgages are now seriously underwater.
That is up a half a pointbecause it was just 3 point percent

(02:13):
the prior quarter.
So what is an under seriouslyunderwater home?
It's one where the borrowerowes at least 25% more than the property
is worth.
So they owe a lot more moneythan they could sell it on the open
market.
Some states like Illinois,Louisiana and Mississippi are showing

(02:35):
even higher concentrationsthan that 4.1%.
And just for information,Illinois and Louisiana are judicial
states where that foreclosureperiod can take a lot longer.
Mississippi is non judicial.
But I just want to reiterate,46% of properties still remain equity

(02:58):
rich, meaning homeowners haveat least 50% equity.
So what we're seeing is areally growing divide between the
haves and have nots in termsof equity.
And we've talked about this inthe past about and especially on
bigger pockets about what isgoing to give an entire generation
not able to buy a home or homevalues coming back down based on

(03:23):
interest rates to allow theyounger generations that ability
to buy a home.
But that's a whole nothertopic we are not going to dive into
today.
But we will dive into why thisdata matters for note investors.
Because if you're investing innotes, this is providing out a signal.

(03:44):
Now far away there's a littledistress signal going out there because
more distress leads to more inventory.
We are seeing huge increasesin non performing loans and properties
underwater, especiallyinvestor driven loans in states that

(04:05):
were hit hard buy insurance inTexas and Florida, which I'm honestly
shocked they're not on thelist of locations that were above
because as one underwaterhomeowners or investors face financial
pressure.
Many fall behind on paymentswhich leads to a non performing loan.

(04:28):
And banks and funds look attheir numbers and will look to divest
from having that many nonperforming loans on their books because
of Basil and Cecil and allthese other acronyms for GAAP accounting
that we're not going to dive into.
But it leads to moreopportunities for investors to buy
this discounted paper.

(04:50):
But more foreclosures onunderwater homes typically leads
to more lenders taking theproperty back, which we are starting
to see on the horizon, butalso in today's and it makes sense.
When homes are underwater,borrowers are less likely to reinstate
or sell.
If people were around 17 yearsago now, wow.

(05:14):
Feels like I was just sayingfive or 10 people were underwater
and they were just walkingfrom their homes because they couldn't
sell it.
Banks would not work with themto short sell it.
They didn't want the foreclosure.
So like here Dean Lieu.
So this can lead to moreassets going full cycle where people
like us as investors will gothrough that foreclosure process

(05:37):
and may take that property back.
It's a major shift from whatwe've seen in these past years where
borrower workouts and exitsvia equity sales were more common.
Now for us, we still look atthese equity rich properties, but
when you buy pools there'sgoing to be assets that are underwater
and if we're taking them backin the past, they would most likely

(06:00):
sell at auction.
Today with interest rates,investors a little bit more cautious
because a lot of the ones whoare just overpaying for assets realize
that they can't overpay forassets and are probably gone.
And some of those are evenloans we're buying.
And the smart investors knowwhat to pay for an asset and how
to make money.

(06:21):
And we have to walk that fineline of okay, do we want to take
this thing back and then dealwith everything after that or do
we want to discount a littlebit from what we're owed and what
it's worth to try and get it sold.
It's a strategy that you haveto decide upon.
Each one can look very different.
But I would tell you, alwaysplan for the worst and of course

(06:46):
hope for the best.
And by doing that you need tostart building a foreclosure support
team.
Not when you're getting readyto foreclose today.
Now start building your teambecause with more properties headed
to foreclosure you will takeone back.

(07:08):
You will become that propertyowner you did not want to be, just
not the note holder.
So as we talk about sometimesbuying non performing loans, make
sure you buy a loan thatyou're okay with owning the house.
Now what does it mean when Isay build your team because you might
be a newer investor and nothaving gone through this.

(07:29):
So what does that consist of?
It consists of Realtors.
You want to get reliable localagents who specialize in these types
of assets.
You don't need somebody fromSotheby selling a $5 million house.
Was that their bread andbutter Is when you've got an Ariel

(07:52):
unless it is a very high end home.
But in most instances it's not.
Preservation companies thatcan change the locks, board up a
window, do things that mow thegrass, do things to avoid fines and
violations, just recognizeyou're going to pay for it.
They're going to mark it upprobably 100 plus percent.

(08:14):
But it's all about ease, easeof finding somebody.
Now you might be able to findcontractors for cleanouts, minor
rehabs, full renovations,especially if you plan to flip or
rent post foreclosure.
Little tip that I find is Itypically will go onto local Facebook
groups and see who peoplerecommend for contractors.

(08:35):
It's always referrals isalways pretty much the best way to
find people.
But be careful because there'sscams out there where people will
say they cleaned something upand they didn't.
So you also need somebodyboots on the ground like a property
manager who can either assistyou with holding the asset or back
to that realtor.

(08:56):
Especially if you're out ofstate because you're going to need
some additional boots on the ground.
Trust me, that's an important one.
Of course you're always goingto need the attorney and title vendors
that know the state specificforeclosure timelines and laws as
well as the servicers and lossmitigation pros who can help maximize

(09:17):
getting this done.
But the key if you're taking aproperty back is especially if you're
doing it from afar.
I strongly recommend you havesome type of renovation experience
or have done some type of rehab.
If you haven't, oh man.
Make sure you have a lot ofAdvil and if you drink lots of alcohol

(09:38):
or something to calm theanxiety because you will have anxiety
dealing with contractors.
I was working for one for 20 years.
Trust me, we are not easypeople to work with.
I just want to again reiteratewhen you're doing this, people always

(09:59):
push the mailbox Money in thedream about passive investing in
notes.
This isn't passive income anymore.
This is extremely active andit's about being prepared for owning
an asset.
So I talked about what you doif you do take something back.
Let's talk about a little bitmore deeper dive into what some smarter

(10:20):
investors I see doing todayand some of them are connecting with
the brokers funds tradingplatforms because more inventory
is likely coming.
So start talking to them, seewhat they're hearing, what they're
seeing.
I actually have a meetingtomorrow, getting on a train at basically

(10:43):
5am to head up to New York tomeet with a seller who We've bought
about $5 million of loans inthe last two months and they're on
the west coast and said, hey,I'm going to be out in New York.
How far are you from New York?
And I said doesn't matter,you're going to be there.
Let's get together, havebreakfast and then I'm meeting somebody
else for lunch that a newstrategic partner we have as well.

(11:06):
I'm going to spend a day atNew York, get up at 5, get there
by 8, 9 o' clock, breakfast 12o' clock, lunch, back on a train
at 3 o' clock, be home by 6:30.
So quick day trip.
But it's going to be extremelypowerful to sit down and connect
with these people and reallypick their brain on what's coming

(11:30):
and how we can strategicallywork together.
Second I recommend is peoplereally sharpen and hone your skills
in strategies.
Is there ways you canstreamline your foreclosure timelines?
Are you maximizing optionsbefore an auction?
How are you pricing an asset?

(11:50):
Are you ordering an appraisal?
Are you getting a bpo?
Are you talking to someinvestors, letting them know, hey,
I've got this coming, whatwould you give me for it?
We were looking at taking downa pool of assets that ended up not
going through a lot of them ina call it a northeast state.
And we knew that they werenearing the end of foreclosure and

(12:13):
I think one of them wasalready an Rio.
And we reached out to someinvestors in there and said, hey,
what would you give us forthis pool?
And they gave us the numbers,which the numbers actually worked
for us.
The issue was we just couldn'tcome to an agreement with the seller
at the end of the day on someof the contract terms.
So we end up walking from the deal.
But also understand and thisis where a lot of investors sometimes

(12:40):
get, I'll use the term, caughtwith their pants down, they forget.
After you foreclose, therepotentially still could be an eviction
process.
So know what that consists of.
For example, we don't reallybuy in Philadelphia, but if you invest
in Philadelphia, you foreclose.
It can take months before youget that sheriff's deed.
I've heard people take a year.
We've had an issue in Marylandwhere we foreclosed one November

(13:04):
and I think it was 14 monthslater before they finally settled
the sale.
That is painful, but it can happen.
So understand when you cancontrol and take over that property.
I already mentioned somestates, look at the data.
States like Illinois,Louisiana, Mississippi are showing
higher underwater rates.

(13:25):
Now if you're in Illinois, Idon't invest in Cook County.
Other areas of Illinois wemight consider Louisiana.
We've got a few assets there,but not our primary bread and butter.
Mississippi, we like Mississippi.
So some of these states you'reseeing more underwater rates, probably
more non performers.

(13:46):
Focus your energy where thenumbers suggest distress and potential
value.
You know, start looking atsome tapes and looking at where are
you seeing more?
I can tell you right now,southwest Florida, the Port Charlotte,
Ocala, no Ocala Center State,Cape Coral, Tampa area, just south

(14:06):
of Tampa.
That era.
You want a loan?
I could basically share withyou hundreds of loans in that area
from builders who just werebuilding and just stop from other
people who were buyingproperty and walking away from it.
That's an area where it wouldbe pretty wise to hook up with some

(14:27):
realtors and some contractorsahead of time.
Just an example.
And maybe you don't havebuying there, but at least you have
people in your back pocket fordown the road.
Also tell people don't sleepon performing notes.
Despite the stress, only halfthe market is still equity rich.

(14:47):
So I want to reiterate thatstill 40, more than half the market
is still more than 50% equity.
We talk about our portfolioall the time, how we like to have
that equity rich portfolio andhaving borrowers that pay consistently
even in some tough markets.

(15:08):
Now somebody's performing andperforming notes backed by that collateral
is a great solid option andgives you a higher, much higher likelihood
for a workout.
So those are my recommendations.
Based off of this report isnot only just start networking with

(15:29):
people in the space networkwith people who can assist and help
you because this rise inunderwater homes I believe is going
to continue to increase.
And with it increasing it'sgoing to be more opportunity but
also potentially more risk aslenders are going to take more foreclosures

(15:51):
back.
I look at it as both achallenge and an opportunity.
So be prepared and build your team.
Now be a little more strategic.
Also, stay flexible with your exits.
Remember, at 70 we like toadjust our playbook consistently.

(16:16):
We're always shifting and moving.
The reason why is we look atthese articles, engage what we're
seeing in the market to lookat what's coming and we're able to
pivot very quickly and beingable to pivot very quickly sometimes
get you out ahead of the opportunities.

(16:39):
Lastly, if you're ready to getin on the next phase of note investing,
whether you're an active buyeror passive investor, just remember
we at 7e, we've got the tools,the resources and relationships to
help you get there.
You can check us out at 7einvestments.com if you're also interested
in being more passive in this space.

(17:00):
Remember, we do run a mortgagenote fund open to accredited and
non accredited investors.
And for those in the activespace, we will be hosting the paper
trail conference September18th to 20th in Chandler, Arizona.
So check out papertrailconference.com to learn more about
that.
Lastly, as I look to finishthis episode, make sure to subscribe,

(17:23):
leave a review and share thisepisode with anyone looking to navigate
the shifting mortgage note landscape.
Until next time, keep youreyes on that paper trail.
Thank you all.
Take care of.
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