Episode Transcript
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Welcome back everybody toanother episode of the Paper Trail
Podcast.
I am back.
We just finished the PaperTrail Conference.
Great time.
Thank everyone that went tothe conference.
I think a lot of people walkedaway with ton of education which
was my goal to make it moreworkshop based, workshop oriented
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for people to really dive inand learn.
It wasn't somebody up therejust pitching a service or teaching
you something to do so youcould go buy their course.
It was relevant, informativeand I hope everyone enjoyed it.
And for those that missed wasnot recorded intentionally.
(01:25):
We did not record it so peoplecould speak their mind and really
talk about things in anintimate setting, including people
asking questions that theymight not feel comfortable asking
if they were being recorded.
So hope people enjoyed the conference.
And again, if you did not waitfor some more information about next
(01:50):
year where we are looking athaving it at the same location in
Chandler, Arizona around thatsame time of year.
Other news within 70investments is we are in the process
of closing our Regulation A offering.
What does that mean?
Because we get a lot of peopleasking us that question.
(02:13):
The SEC requires anyregulation A offering gives them
a three year window withinthat offering and we have come up
upon that three year window.
Actually we slightly are overthat window but prior to the three
year mark we resubmitted for anew Regulation A offering which allows
(02:37):
us to extend our currentoffering for up to six, six months.
We are closing this offeringin November and what that means for
investors is those who areinvesting in our Regulation A plus
fund looking at those bonusshares, those are going to be going
away.
Your investments will continueto the company is not going anywhere.
(02:59):
All we're doing is creatinganother path, another avenue to invest
in the company in closing outthe prior no different than other
offerings, for example a multifamily or self storage.
You know they close thatoffering to new investments and they
continue to operate.
We are doing the same thing.
So we are hosting a webinar inmid October of 2025 on this.
(03:24):
So recommend that you come onand join the webinar today.
What I want to talk about wasan article I was reading and in Adam
ATTOM & USFN United Statesforeclosure Network that target over
towards Mortgage Point whichthe title of this was Keeping an
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Eye on REO Trends and withinour portfolio.
We just finished oursemiannual report and we're looking
at our portfolio and how ithas changed over the past six months
in the past year.
A year ago within ourportfolio we had two or three real
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estate owned properties as ofJune of This year we're up to 12.
So we 4x that number and thatnumber actually has gone up slightly
even since that time.
Why?
Well, what the data is showingis this data was from August that
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they took, which was from Adam.
There were 30, almost 36,000foreclosures filings, which are defined
as sending default noticesthat schedule auctions or, you know,
complaints, which was downfrom July by just 1%, but up almost
20% from a year ago.
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So a year ago there wasroughly, you know, between 25 and
30,000.
Now we're up over 35,000.
And some of the facts thatstick out with this is August was
the sixth consecutive monththat we've had year over year increases
in activity in this thirdstraight month with double digit
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growth.
So last three months they'vehad double digit growth in foreclosure.
Now that's essentially thequarter and it'll be interesting
to see what happens the next quarter.
And things I look at, forexample, when people say, okay, are
you in a depression, you're ina recession, you know, they look
at the past quarter, a fewquarters, where are we headed on
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defaults?
And I always remind people themortgage and real estate space is
such a slow moving train.
What happens years ago isfinally starting to take its toll,
which is home prices increase significantly.
People took a lot of leverageand we are seeing price declines
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in many markets.
We've also seen taxesincrease, we've also seen insurance
increase.
So let's dive a little bitmore into those numbers.
Through August, lenders tookback 4,000 properties in August and
again another 5% increase overJuly, but a 40% increase from a year
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ago.
So a year ago is about 2500 properties.
Now it's over 4000 properties.
Where is this happening?
This is important whetheryou're a real estate investor, a
mortgage note investor lookingto buy a home, because the more REOs
there are, the more impact itmay have on pricing.
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Now you can assume that, youknow this largest states typically
have the greatest, which isthe case got Texas leading the way,
California, New York, Floridaand Illinois.
Then if you look at MSAsMetropolitan Statistical Areas, you
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know, Chicago, New York,Houston, San Antonio and Dallas.
Now what are some of.
Now this is where propertieswere taken back.
What are some of the thingsthat you're seeing?
And some of those metropolitanareas, very high tax, very high insurance.
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So there's a theme to me,there is a theme that areas that
have very high cost ofownership, you see more REOs because
if you have newer investorscoming in, they don't understand
that cost or even peopleowning these assets.
Single, you know, owneroccupied a lot of times.
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When I bought my first house,I was way off on understanding the
true cost own a home.
So it's something that considers.
Now let's talk aboutforeclosure rates.
Where are you seeing thegreatest amount of foreclosures leading
the way?
Nevada.
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Which is interesting because Irecall now over 15 years ago, during,
you know, the great recession,Nevada and Florida were leading the
way.
And I don't know if it wasjust because of the movie the Big
Short where he goes out thereand sees the exotic dancer and she
talks about like four homes orwhatever she had.
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But I remember pricing inNevada, pricing in Florida shot up
and then got crushed on foreclosures.
Second or right around alsoincreasing is, and this one surprised
me a little bit, South Carolina.
Now South Carolina has, youknow, a significant amount.
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We haven't seen a lot ofactivity in South Carolina.
We've seen some defaults inNevada, South Carolina, we have one
foreclosure actually coming upin South Carolina, but it hasn't
been rampant from what we've seen.
So that one kind of caught meoff guard.
Another is Florida.
Definitely not surprising.
The southwest area of Floridaand condos are getting crucified.
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I just saw a $60 million tapecome across my desk and 20% of these
assets were in Port Charlotte,Cape Coral, Tampa area.
You know that west coast ofFlorida is getting crushed right
now.
So if you own property in thatarea, my recommendation would be
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most likely to try and stickit out because they will recover.
But that area is taking theproverbial beating at this point
in time.
The areas that they mention,Lakeland, Florida, Columbia, South
Carolina, Chico, California,Cleveland, which not surprising,
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it's an area we no longer dobusiness in because of the jurisdiction
is just so challenging inOcala, Florida, which we actually
have a non performing loan inOcala, which is more in the center
part of the state.
Others areas that they talkabout, Las Vegas, not surprising.
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Jacksonville again, an areawith tons of investors pouring in.
Houston and Orlando, Orlandoof course, with a lot of short term
rentals, maybe those gettinghit hard.
So you're seeing some of theseareas that are typically known to
have the high, high boom, high bust.
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So those areas again and theycontinue just going back to the states
we talked about the REOs andnow the states where foreclosure
starts, it's the same.
Texas, Florida, California,New York, Illinois.
And it's interesting is inIllinois and New York, you know,
those will get those willstack up very quickly because it
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takes a significant amount oftime to foreclose in New York and
Illinois.
Florida, very similar.
It takes a little bit of, youknow, could take a year to foreclose
in Florida, Texas and California.
Very short foreclosure timelines.
California, to the disbeliefof many.
Quick foreclosure evictions.
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Different story.
So why do I share this data?
What does it mean?
What can you do with it?
This data continues on thatupward trend and none of us are,
you know, no one can predictthe future.
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What I tend to do as anengineer is follow the trends and
always go by the philosophy ofeverything reverts back to some type
of mean.
And over the years pricing hasincreased significantly, interest
rates have gone up and morepeople have gotten into the real
estate space.
Whether it's to own a propertyor to own it, you know, own it to
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live in it or own it as anincome producing property.
You know the numbers typicallyagain, pricing goes up, people come
in fomo.
Then you'll see several yearslater the defaults start to kick
in and they'll continue to rise.
I don't think we're going tosee anything like 2008 in any way,
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shape or form.
But what you're going to seeis an increase in defaults, you're
going to see an increase inforeclosures and you're going to
see opportunity.
You'll see opportunity inforeclosure properties.
You'll see opportunity inpeople having to sell even though
they have equity and theircarrying costs are significant so
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it might be cheaper for themto sell it at a discount.
Be many different avenues.
And the other thing toconsider, real estate is market driven.
What happens in Las Vegas maynot happen in Boston, may not happen
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in Northern Virginia, butcould happen in Miami, Florida.
Things to really focus on and understand.
So you want to follow wherethis is happening.
As a note investor, why thisis important is I mentioned Port
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Charlotte.
We have two non performingloans I believe in Port Charlotte
right now and that area isgetting crushed.
When we bid on those, oh sixmonths ago, we discounted the value
of those properties because atthat time we saw some writing on
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the wall.
If somebody did not discountthe value of that property, they
could have now overbid andcould potentially either make little
to no or lose money on that asset.
So as a non performing noteinvestor, it's important to follow
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these trends to understandwhere home prices are headed in going.
Because you don't know.
But in Port Charlotte, if youbought a note today, and it takes
a year to foreclose.
Where do you think pricing isgoing to be in a year will be higher,
lower or the same?
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If you expect to be higher andbid that way, you're just adding
risk.
You get no benefit at all forpredicting something to be higher.
If you predict nothing happensand prices stay the same, you're
taking on risk.
Prices may go down if youinclude some price decline that you've
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already factored it in.
Just like stock markets andeveryone else factor in whether there's
going to be a rate cut orwhat's going to happen that can get
factored into that pricing.
So if it happens, you're okay.
If it's less, you win.
If it's more, you lose.
So it's that balance offiguring out how much you can dictate
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and adjust with also stillbeing able to win and buy assets
that is part of the secretsauce of a note investor that nobody
teaches you, everyone justtells you take a model, throw numbers
at it and it spits out the information.
There is a lot more to it than that.
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It's no different than owningreal estate.
There's no different thananything you do where you're trying
to predict something.
Because I say this all thetime, the moment you put that information
into your calculator, it is wrong.
So how to make sure thatyou're taking that into consideration?
And I'm going to be doing a 10part series coming up that shows
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how to bid on non performingloans outside of just relying on
a calculator because it'simportant for people to understand
these external factors thatare going on.
And again, 41% surge in realestate foreclosures, it's still low
by any means, but it'sstarting to see that increase and
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it's starting to pick up steam.
Also when they talk aboutother factors, you know, consumer
price index is 3% year overyear, you know, for inflation, which
I always joke that I neverbelieve those numbers because I also
think it's much higher thanwhat they show.
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So something to definitelythink about, something to consider
is where these are headed.
In the other article thatactually posted this on LinkedIn
that ties to this a little bitis also the number of defaults that
aren't even yet in foreclosure.
It's just those that aretrending now, 30, 60, 90 days that
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are moving the needle.
And this was more based off ofcommercial lending, which again very
different than residential,but also just something to be very
aware of.
And in that article, you know,from Q2 of last year that this year
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total MPLs increased by $10billion which is 5% increase.
Commercial real estate was 5.3non farm residential increased by
1.5 billion which is 4.7% increase.
Construction LPL were billionmultifamily 2.8 billion.
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So definitely it's not atsunami that's coming but significant
increases.
For example commercial NPLsincreased by 102% as compared to
with 13% of the entire industry.
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Non residential increased by53% construction NPLs increased by
63% construction NPL 63%construction loans increase that's
not how many in default that'show many the percentage increased
multifamily non performingloans listeners and increased by
426% 426% lot of those areresetting lot of in default.
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What does all this why am I here?
Why am I talking?
If you're an NPL investor,opportunity is going to be knocking.
Be prepared.
You're going to have theopportunity to invest in defaulted
debt.
So make sure you understandwhat it is you're doing.
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You follow the metrics and yoube patient.
Want to thank you for catchingthis episode of the Paper Trail podcast.
As always, make sure to leaveus a review on your favorite listening
station.
And if you want moreinformation about 7e, go to 7einvestments.com
where we have our fund linksto our fund offering to our Regulation
(19:54):
A+ offering at the SEC website.
We also are now originatingDSCR and Residential Transition loans
which you can learn about@7einvestment lending.com.
so if you're an investorlooking for a loan, whether you're
refinancing that rentalproperty or looking to acquire a
rental property, we now withinour our team have the capacity, capability
(20:20):
and relationships with somecorrespondent lenders to do that.
So thank you for listening.
Take care and I'll catch youon the next one.