Simply Put

Simply Put

A podcast from FHN Financial looking at the most important things driving fixed income markets and the macroeconomy. Every episode features experts who give unique insights on topics like the regional banking landscape, commercial real estate, or how to translate Federal Reserve policy into market strategies. Tune in to better understand what’s been moving markets lately, and what to keep an eye on in the weeks and months ahead. Listen and subscribe wherever you get your podcasts

Episodes

September 18, 2026 43 mins
The prosperity promised by railroads in the 1800s caused unprecedented investment in the United States that eventually led to the Panic of 1873, the steepest downturn in the US up to that point. The amount of capital being spent on AI today has some wondering if we are likewise in the midst of a bubble about to burst. But as the American experience with railroads shows, a technology can live up to all its hype and still cause a mes...
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As the pandemic-era shocks of federal stimulus and domestic migration fade, some states are looking for new taxes to increase revenue while others consider tax cuts to address affordability concerns. Proposed reforms for property taxes in Florida, income taxes in Illinois, and a wealth tax in California show how the differences in states’ tax environments are widening even further. In this episode, we talk with Katherine Loug...
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The recent increase in Treasury’s buyback operations will remove long-term USTs from the market using new short-term debt or cash from the Treasury General Account. Secretary Bessent believes the buybacks will help bring long-term yields closer to what he deems fundamentals. The move comes weeks after Treasury officials intervened to support the yen, in part from worries that Japan would otherwise sell Treasuries to buy up it...
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The speed and magnitude of AI implementation at the firm level will help determine its overall impact on growth, productivity, and employment. Survey evidence shows CFOs’ approach to AI integration varies based on how they assess the risks and potential benefits of the innovative technology. In this episode, we talk with John Graham, Professor of Finance at Duke University’s Fuqua School of Business, about what’s ...
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Chair Warsh has communicated very little at his first two press conferences, aiming to increase policy flexibility and free markets to “play the ball, not the referee.” This is a marked change from his predecessors who viewed frequent communication as a form of transparency and helpful guidance. Some of Warsh’s desired reforms, however, are subject to FOMC approval and cannot be implemented unilaterally. In this e...
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Regardless of the Fed’s commitment to restoring price stability, past price increases have had a lasting impression on households and businesses after five years of above-target inflation. People’s experiences arguably shape inflation expectations — and the path of future inflation — more than perceptions of the Fed’s resolve. If FOMC participants over-emphasize point estimates of inflation expectation...
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Even as Artificial Intelligence enhances productivity, it is also increasing cybersecurity vulnerabilities across the financial industry. New technologies like Anthropic’s Mythos add to bad actors’ abilities to disrupt the financial sector through fraud and Distributed Denial-of-Service attacks. Amid these risks, individuals, institutions, and governments have tools available to limit the significant costs from cyberatt...
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The cost of shipping insurance in the Strait of Hormuz has surged over the last four months. Even after the US and Iran lifted their mutual blockade last week, insurers and ship operators are wary of safety in the narrow passageway and the stability of any agreement. The protracted riskiness will delay energy market normalization and push up the cost of oil transportation. In this episode, we talk with Michelle Bockmann, Senior Mar...
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Investors often use inflation swaps and breakevens — the difference in yields between nominal Treasuries and TIPS — to deduce market participants’ inflation expectations. These measures also change from new TIPS issuance, shifting inflation risk, and a liquidity premium, however, making them imprecise gauges of estimates for future inflation. In this episode, we talk with Mike Ashton, Managing Principal at Endurin...
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The Strait of Hormuz’s closure has driven up prices for fertilizer and diesel, two inputs essential for agricultural production. Considering how farmers pre-buy fertilizer and crops take months to grow, the higher costs may not be fully passed on to consumers until the spring of 2027. Agricultural production will be a bellwether as the Fed waits to see the second-order effects of higher oil prices on broader consumer inflatio...
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The term premium — investors’ compensation for holding longer-term Treasuries instead of T-bills — fluctuates with inflation uncertainty, federal deficit worries, and central banks’ balance sheets. The New York Fed’s Adrian, Crump, and Mönch model estimates the 10-year Treasury term premium is higher than before the pandemic but substantially lower than it was pre- GFC. The post-pandemic term premium w...
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Changes in foreign migration caused US population growth to slow last year and potentially turn negative in 2026. Federal programs and private debt markets structured around an assumption of growth must now contend with the possibility of a shrinking labor force. Meanwhile, Fed officials have become remarkably sanguine amid near-zero job growth, convinced the labor market remains curiously in balance because of changes in the labor...
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The Fed’s balance sheet has swelled from $900 billion in 2008 to just under $7 trillion in April 2026. Policymakers bought up securities to support the economy during the global financial crisis and pandemic, but critics allege the enormous balance sheet boosts inflation and distorts financial markets. If Kevin Warsh tries to reduce the Fed’s holdings as Chair, he must contend with the existing regulatory environment an...
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The recently announced two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran is giving investors hope that traffic will normalize soon in the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway that before the war serviced a fifth of global oil supply. As countries search for workarounds to plug the shortfall, a spike in global commodity prices has reinvigorated inflation worries, prompted expectations for central bank tightening, and weighed on global growt...
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Private credit has outgrown its original niche of lending to middle-market firms using funds from institutional investors with long time horizons. Rising participation from retail investors and banks has increased the sector’s interconnectedness with the wider financial system, making investors worried that a wave of redemption requests could lead to a cascade of tighter financial conditions and slower economic growth. In thi...
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AI optimism is fueling expectations for a sustained post-pandemic productivity surge that supports robust economic growth and permits easier Fed policy. However, history suggests full technological implementation can take decades and some industries could still struggle to become more productive. As policymakers consider the impacts of profound technological change, they’ll have to confront difficulties measuring productivity...
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As investment into Artificial Intelligence continues to grow, construction of AI data centers is significantly increasing the demand for electricity, water, and land use across the country. These centers can require the same amount of water as a fifty-thousand-person town and could represent 12% of overall US electricity consumption in the coming years. Inflexible supply creates the risk of rapid price increases while private and p...
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The Federal Reserve influences financial conditions through the federal funds market, a private market consisting of unsecured overnight interbank transactions. As the locus of money markets moves away from fed funds and more towards repos and SOFR, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan has argued the current policy regime no longer suits the financial system. In this episode, we talk with Bill Nelson, Chief Economist and Chief Research...
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February 6, 2026 39 mins
President Trump has nominated former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh to succeed Jerome Powell as Fed Chair later this year. Warsh called for “regime change” at the Fed last year, reiterating his long-held criticism of the Fed’s large balance sheet, data-dependence, and use of forward guidance. His tenure would begin with an already-divided FOMC and lingering worries surrounding threats to the Fed’s political indepe...
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Artificial Intelligence (AI) is poised to disrupt the labor market by replacing certain tasks and enhancing the productivity of others. Although these changes could eventually lead to broader prosperity, they could also cause worker displacement, increase inequality, and decrease entry-level work opportunities. In this episode, we talk with Lisa Simon, Chief Economist of Revelio Labs, about the ways AI has already impacted the labo...
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