CFP Projections after Texas's win over Texas A&M

Hour 2 of Mondau's program begins with a look at the latest College Football Playoff projections heading into Conference Championship week.

Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
Here on a long range Monday. Craig Way is my name.
Glad to have you with us, alongside the producer Cameron Parker.
We're ready up until five o'clock this afternoon, just to
let you know. Over the course of the next couple
of days, I'll check into the program. But we have
the six man coming in tomorrow and Wednesday. We know

(00:20):
we have Andrew Zimle because Cam and I will be
on our way to Raleigh, North Carolina with the Texas
Long Worn men's basketball team as he get ready to
playing the acc SEC Challenge where they have a Wednesday
night game in Raleigh against the North Carolina State wolf Pack.
So we leave tomorrow with them for that Wednesday game,

(00:40):
and then Thursday I go up to South ben Texas
women ranked fourth take on tenth rank Notre Dame in
the acc SEC Women's Challenge. So those two games, and
now I'll go straight to Atlanta on Friday get ready
for the SEC Football Championship game. But we have we
have Zimmole coming in the next couple of days.

Speaker 2 (00:58):
Right, yeah, the Zimbols shows Wednesday, and then think myself
on Thursday with you traveling, hopefully you'll be able to
check in at some point Thursday and Friday. So yes,
it's gonna be a different week, a busy week for
the both of us traveling across the United States of America.

Speaker 1 (01:15):
Yep, yep, no doubt about it. Busy time and it's
always a good thing too. With it busy. We'll have
some more from Sark and some more on the NFL.
You should you watch some NFL yesterday? Yeah? Good amount
when I had electricity in power? Oh yeah, that's right.
You had. You had a power outage for a bit,
didn't you. Okay? Heck of a the ending the Cardinals

(01:38):
Vikings that was. That was a good ballgame, rat really
tight uh ending in that one.

Speaker 2 (01:45):
Did you enjoy seeing Taysom Hill being carted off knowing
able to win this game?

Speaker 1 (01:51):
No, I didn't want him to get hurt. The Rams
had a hard time stopping him, but I did not
want him get any more than I wanted that. That
was Trever Lawrence to that chief shot awful. Uh and
you here, by the way, kind of defended himself on
Twitter today, but he also apologized, said, I swear to
you I had I came up on him and he

(02:11):
got there and didn't realize him good, I mean, but
it didn't look good obviously, so and knocked him out
with a concussion in that one. So I did watch
that in the late games as well and everything that
went down with that. Now, it was also paying attention
to what was going on in college football, and as
we pointed out, with the Texas win over Texas A

(02:32):
and M on Saturday night, a couple of things happened. One,
they went up to number two in the polls, and
one would imagine there'll be a clear, clean number two
in this week's college football playoff rankings. What I mean
by that is they won't be ranked third, but as
explained by Rhees Davis, they would go into the two
slot if Ohio State had still been number two, because

(02:53):
you would add two Big Ten teams Oregon in Ohio
State playing for the Big Ten championship and only one
could get a first round by don't have to worry
about that now, because Ohio State lost had to be
the biggest surprise of the weekend. I think so.

Speaker 2 (03:08):
I think so, especially after you know, we've heard so
much talk about how Texas beat Michigan, but you know
it's not a quality win. You're not a good team
oh thirteen to ten Michigan Opahio States. So I mean
that's that wins a completely throw a ranch into the playoff.
And obviously Ohio State's still probably going to be a

(03:28):
first round by They're still going to be in the playoff.
But it puts so much pressure on Ryan Day. And
it's funny, crick because if you look at the numbers
and the wins and lost record in the playoff appearances,
you're thinking, man, what program would not want to have
this as your head coach? But then you know you realize, well,

(03:49):
you know, Ohio State does have national championship aspirations. They
have not won one since Urban Meyer was the head coach.
So the pressure is up on Ryan Day to have
successful postseason. And I'm really curious what the administration and
ad decides to do if Ohio State does not win
it all this season.

Speaker 1 (04:08):
Well, I'm with you. I I definitely see them in
the playoff. They're not going to get a buy You
don't think so well, it can't win the champions I
meant a home playoff home playoff could yeah. Absolutely. In fact,
I'm gonna get into this right now. Definitely I can
see that. But some of it will also depend on

(04:29):
what happens this weekend, all right. So ESPN updates their
Bowl projections and their playoff projections each week. So here's
what The two guys who cover it most closely are
Kyle Bonnaguera and Mark Slaybaugh. Uh. They they the hole
the totality of that. Now. Heather Dinnish does a great
job just dialing into the playoff when we've talked about
her her things as well, and Bill Connley and his

(04:51):
things as well. But Bontagera and Shlayba weekly update their
playoff and Bowl projections, and then this is what they
have right now for the playoffs. The twelve to five game,
Bonigura has Arizona State at Notre Dame, Notre Dame being
the five Arizona State twelve shlay Ball still believes Alabama's

(05:13):
going to get into the playoff. Wow, he's got him
as the number twelve playing at Notre Dame. Just don't
see it happening, I really don't, all right. Then the
eleven to six matchup, Bonegura has Miami at Ohio State.
With Ohio State the six, shlay Ball has Arizona State
at Texas. He's got Texas's the six. He believes Texas

(05:34):
will lose to Georgia again. Bonigura in the ten to
seven matchup has Tennessee the ten at number seven Penn State.
Shlay Ball has number ten Indiana at number seven Ohio
State in a rematch in Columbus. And then the nine
to eight matchup, Bonagura has Indiana at Georgia because he's

(05:54):
got Texas winning the SEC and he's got Georgia's the eight.
Slay Ball has Tennis he is the nine at number
eight Pence State. So that's that's what they have for
the first round games. Then for the quarterfinals in the
Fiesta Bowl, both have a number five Notre Dame at
a number four Boise State. In the Fiesta the Chick

(06:19):
the Chick fil A. They've got Ohio State winning their
six versus eleven matchup playing number three seed. SMU got
SMU winning the acc Bonnegarades. Slay Ball has Texas as
the sixth seed winning its matchup in the six eleven
that he had them hosting against Arizona State, and he's

(06:40):
got Texas playing SMU in the Peach. So they both
have SMU beating Clemson to win the acc and getting
slotted into the Peach Bowl in Atlanta. Okay, all right,
they both they both have SMU winning that, but slay
Ball has Texas in the six to three matchup the
Road Bowl, Bonagura has the eight seed Georgia at the

(07:02):
number one Oregon. Slay Ball has the eight seed Penn
State at the number one Oregon, both having went won
their eight versus dime matchup. And the Sugar Bowl, Bonagera
has Penn State the number seven against Texas the two.
He's got Texas winning the SEC so he's got a
Texas Penn State Sugar Bowl, slay Ball has an Ohio
State Georgia seven versus ten. Then in the semifinals Orange Bowl,

(07:29):
both have Texas in the final four, so they have
even schlay Ball who has Texas as that number six
seed facing three seed SMU and the Peach Bowl. But
in the Orange Bowl, Bonagura has six seed Ohio State
against number two Texas. Slay Ball has number six seed
Texas against number two Georgia for the third time meeting

(07:53):
this season. But see, and I know that some of
you may be a little bit confused about that business.
Why would they be in the Orange Bowl why wouldn't
they be in the Cotton Bowl. And I've explained this,
but it bears repeating. Rich Clark, the executive director of
the College Football Playoff, was on a webinar that I
was on, and then we had him on the show
where he echoed what he said in the webinar because

(08:15):
I asked him about it, and he said that the way
the rules work, first of all, with the higher seeds
or the bowl arrangements with the conferences have to be
honored this year next year. That's why a SEC champion

(08:35):
Texas would not go to the Peach Bowl in Atlanta's
Atlanta as many fought, they would go to the Sugar
Bowl because the Sugar Bowl has its tie in with
the SEC. The Big Ten has its tie in with
the Rose Bowls, so it affect Oregon to play there.
If they're assuming they get a buye and then would
be in the quarterfinal, they would be there. They would

(08:57):
have the Big Twelve champion and the Fiesta Bowl anchored
to that, and the ACC normally anchors with the Orange Bowl,
but the Orange Bowl is a semifinal, so in the
quarterfinal they would instead the ACC champ would slot to
the Peach Bowl. That's why both Nager and sligh Ball
have SMU in there. So that's why. Then in the semifinals,

(09:18):
the way it works is the highest remaining seed goes
to what is geographically the closer of the two semifinal games.
So you think about it, for Oregon, that would be
Dallas Arlington, and so that would send Texas if they

(09:40):
were the two to Miami to play in the Orange Bowl.
If Oregon were to fall and Texas were the one seed,
then obviously they would be slotted into play in the
Cotton Bowl. But for now, the way it would project out,
Oregon would wind up at the Cotton Bowl in the
semifinals if they won their quarterfinal, and Texas, if they
were to advance through the quarterfin would then go under

(10:02):
that scenario to the Orange Bowl. And both these writers
have it as such. They have Ohio State and Texas
in the Orange Bowl. Does Bonagura is Texas is the
two seed, Ohio State is the six. Shlay Ball has
Texas is the six, and Georgia is the two. The
Cotton Bowl. Both have Oregon against Notre Dame. They have

(10:24):
Notre Dame beating the four seed Boise State. So they
both have Notre Dame against Oregon National Championship. Slay Ball
has Oregon in Georgia, Bonagura has Oregon in Texas, and
of course that would be back in Atlanta. So there

(10:48):
it is. That's where that is, and that's why we
talk about how confident everybody and assured everybody is that
Texas is going to be in the college football playoffs.
They can take a big step forward in being success
from the playoff if they win the SEC and get
a buy and go straight to the quarterfinals. We'll hear
more from long Warts head coach Steve Sarkisian about that

(11:08):
coming up when we continue on this Longhorns Monday on
sports Radio AM thirteen under the Zone.