February 1, 2022 • 10 mins
Jack Armstrong & Joe Getty discuss a stunning report by Johns Hopkins University says lockdowns had little to no effect on covid-19 mitigation.
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
The Armstrong and Getty Show. So is this from Johns
Hopkins University. I thought it would be a giant story today,
but I have not seen it anywhere. It is there.
It's from their Studies and Applied Economics headline. A literature
review and meta analysis of the effects of lockdowns on
(00:21):
COVID nineteen mortality. And I thought it would be a
big story. It seems like it should be a big story,
but so far it is not a big story. I
will read a little from the conclusion. It is sixty
two pages long. I read some of the intro, a
bit of the middle, and then mostly the conclusion. Overall,
our meta analysis fails to confirm that lockdowns have had
(00:43):
a large significant effect on mortality rates. Studies examining the
relationship between lockdown strictness based on their complicated stringency index,
and if you want to actually read this, we have
it linked at Armstrong and Getty dot com. Um our
studying the relationship between lockdown strictness finds that the average
lockdown in Europe and the United States only reduced COVID
(01:05):
nineteen mortality by point two percent compared to COVID nineteen
policy based solely on recommendations that would be counties, provinces,
countries where they said you should social distance, you should
wear masks, you should be careful, wash your hands, whatever
they said, as opposed to mandating that the business be
(01:26):
closed or the school be closed or whatever. Point Um
studies looking at specific things like lockdown versus no lockdown,
face masks, closing non essential businesses, border closures, school closures,
and limiting gatherings also find no broad based evidence of
notes noticeable effects on COVID nineteen mortality. However, it says
(01:49):
they're closing non essential businesses seems to have had some effect,
particularly bars, uh eleven percent decrease in COVID mortality and
closing bars versus not closing bars, so that one seemed
to be a good idea. Yeah, I can picture where
bars would be a great place to spread the disease on.
You know. On the other hand, and this this is
the thought over reaching all of this discussion, is that
(02:12):
the enormous costs of denying people liberty are so high
and if you if you had made it clear that
uh going to the bar spreading the COVID a lot,
and you know, maybe people self select decide not to
I don't know. Um Also, masks may reduce COVID nineteen mortality,
(02:32):
but there is only one study that examines universal mask
mandates the effects of border closures, school closures, and limiting
gatherings on mortality yields precision weighted estimates of point one percent,
UH four percent and one point six percent, respectively. Lockdowns
compared to no lockdowns also do not reduce COVID nineteen mortality.
I'll get to the discussion part. This is practically the
(02:55):
last paragraph. Overall, we conclude that lockdowns are not an
effective way reducing mortality rates during a pandemic, at least
not during the first wave of the COVID nineteen pandemic.
Our results are in line with what the World Health
Organization Writing Group in two thousand six stated. Reports from
the nineteen eighteen Influence of pandemic indicate that social distancing
(03:16):
measures did not stop or appear to dramatically reduced transmission.
In Edmonton, Canada, isolation and quarantine were instituted, public meetings
were banned, schools, churches, colleges, theaters, and other public public
gatherings were closed, and business hours were restricted without obvious
impact on the epidemic. In other words, we've lived through
this before, we've tried it before. They looked at the
(03:38):
data and the w h O had decided it didn't
do much good. Well, yeah, what's especially frustrating. And it
wasn't just the w h O, but Johns Hopkins itself,
in the w h O, in the CDC in April seventeen,
all put out reports about pandemic preparedness. This is pre
COVID now, folks, and all of them can concluded the
same thing that mass quarantines don't work, and so that
(03:59):
was a part of the plan. In fact, they said
they might be pursued for social or political purposes by
political leaders rather than pursued because of health public health evidence.
That's according to the gurus who have been calling us
to dance to their tune for the last couple of years.
Back to this most recent study. The most recent research
has shown that lockdowns have had at best a marginal
effect on the number of COVID nineteen deaths. And then
(04:21):
this sentence I thought, which was huge. Um. They conclude
in the study that interventions are generally effective in mitigating
COVID nineteen spread, But nine of the forty three results
reviewed find it no or uncertain association between lockdowns and
the spread of COVID nineteen, suggesting that evidence from that
(04:41):
study contradicts their own conclusion. Finally allows to broaden our perspective.
After presenting our meta analysis that focuses on the following questions,
what does the evidence tell us about the effects of
lockdowns on mortality? We provide a firm answer to this question.
The evidence fails to confirm that lockdowns have a significant
effect in reducing COVID nineteen mortality. The effect is little
(05:03):
to none. And here's an important paragraph. The use of
lockdowns is a unique feature of the COVID nineteen pandemic.
Lockdowns have not been used at such a large extent
during any of the pandemics of the past century. However,
lockdowns during the initial phase of COVID have had devastating effects.
They've contributed to reducing economic activity, raising unemployment, reducing schooling,
(05:23):
causing political unrest, contributing to domestic violence, and undermining liberal democracy.
These costs to society must be compared to the benefits
of lockdown, which our meta analysis have shown our marginal
at best. We this leads us to a strong conclusion
lockdowns should be rejected out of hand as a pandemic
(05:44):
policy instrument. Well maybe next time, echoing every single serious
look at this question. There has never been an authoritative
body that has recommended lockdowns. So frustrated, well, and it's
important to repeat what you said earlier. Well, yeah, I
(06:04):
think it is to a huge extent, Trump said, open up.
So the masses of the media and government and the
intelligentia said shut down, and that was it. It is
the most I mean the most, like you're a dumb
beast recoiling from fire reaction, Trump said, a so we
(06:24):
say b which which shows you to be so incredibly
easily manipulated my intelligent friends, my elite friends, you are
so weak and and the damage you've done is so
enormous to the kids, the anxiety, the depression of the suicide,
the self arm, the rest of it. And there's never
been an authoritative body that has said shutdowns are the
(06:45):
way to go. Never. It's just so incredibly frustrating to me.
And then we knew it, and we should have known it.
Just the Trump arrangement syndrome may be one of the
most interesting mass dellusions ever experienced by Homo sapiens. It
needs to be studied at the university level. The problem
is all the universities are in the bag for this.
You know, the sort of group think we've been talking about.
(07:06):
In the time we have. I think it's notable the
Atlantic publishing a piece by three women who are all
in the medical field, public health, that sort of thing.
They write, how much time do I have? Yeah, we
got time. In the panic spring of health, officials scrambled
to keep communities safe. They recommended various restrictions and interventions,
sometimes in the absence of rigorous science supporting them. Yeah,
(07:31):
excuse me, continuing the thing that was understandable at the time. Now, however,
two years into this pandemic, keeping unproven measures in place
is no longer justifiable, And honestly, I think they are
being too charitable. But anyway, at the top of the
list of policies we should rethink is mandatory masks for
kids at school. The CDC guidance on school masking is
(07:52):
far reaching, recommending quote universal indoor masking by all students
aged two and older, staff, teachers, and visitors to kids
through twelve schools, regardless of vaccination status. In contrast, many countries,
the UK Sweden, Norway, Denmark, Denmark and many others have
not taken the U s AS approach and instead followed
w h O get guidelines, which recommend against masking children
(08:14):
ages five and younger because this age group is at
low risk of illness, because masks are not quote in
the overall interests of the child, and because many children
are unable to wear masks properly, even for ages is
six to eleven. The w h O does not routinely
recommend masks because of the quote potential impact of wearing
a mask on learning and psycho social development. This part
(08:35):
is extra crazy. The fact that we are more strict
than Europe, more strict than the w h O masking
little kids is weird, and they go into some detail
on the patchwork of yes and no to masks. About
half of the country's fifty three million children remain compulsorily
masked in school for the indefinite future, even though there
(08:56):
is no responsible medical body that says it's doing any good. None.
I was picking up my son yesterday and watching the
kindergarteners get out of the early part of kindergarten. All
those little five year olds with masks on Europe in
the w h O doesn't believe in that there's more
detail you out of here. Many public health experts maintain
that mask worn correctly or central bubble others a reason
(09:17):
of doubt that kids can pull off mask wearing correctly.
We reviewed a variety of studies, some conducted by the
CDC itself, some cited by them as evidence of masking effectiveness,
often touted by the media. We were trying to find
evidence that would justify the no end in sight mask guidance.
We came up empty handed. To our knowledge, the CDC
(09:37):
has performed three studies to determine whether masking children in
school reduces COVID nineteen transmission. Uh And then they go
into some detailed long story short there is no solid
evidence it helps at all. Masking teachers seem to help
a little bit for a while, but there is no
evidence that masking kids helps. This is from the Atlantic, folks.
This is not from some sort of way out there
(09:58):
Alex Jones webs site. This is practically universally recognized science.
And yet the kids are still masked. Why Barmstrong and
Getty
The Armstrong and Getty Show. So is this from Johns
Hopkins University. I thought it would be a giant story today,
but I have not seen it anywhere. It is there.
It's from their Studies and Applied Economics headline. A literature
review and meta analysis of the effects of lockdowns on
(00:21):
COVID nineteen mortality. And I thought it would be a
big story. It seems like it should be a big story,
but so far it is not a big story. I
will read a little from the conclusion. It is sixty
two pages long. I read some of the intro, a
bit of the middle, and then mostly the conclusion. Overall,
our meta analysis fails to confirm that lockdowns have had
(00:43):
a large significant effect on mortality rates. Studies examining the
relationship between lockdown strictness based on their complicated stringency index,
and if you want to actually read this, we have
it linked at Armstrong and Getty dot com. Um our
studying the relationship between lockdown strictness finds that the average
lockdown in Europe and the United States only reduced COVID
(01:05):
nineteen mortality by point two percent compared to COVID nineteen
policy based solely on recommendations that would be counties, provinces,
countries where they said you should social distance, you should
wear masks, you should be careful, wash your hands, whatever
they said, as opposed to mandating that the business be
(01:26):
closed or the school be closed or whatever. Point Um
studies looking at specific things like lockdown versus no lockdown,
face masks, closing non essential businesses, border closures, school closures,
and limiting gatherings also find no broad based evidence of
notes noticeable effects on COVID nineteen mortality. However, it says
(01:49):
they're closing non essential businesses seems to have had some effect,
particularly bars, uh eleven percent decrease in COVID mortality and
closing bars versus not closing bars, so that one seemed
to be a good idea. Yeah, I can picture where
bars would be a great place to spread the disease on.
You know. On the other hand, and this this is
the thought over reaching all of this discussion, is that
(02:12):
the enormous costs of denying people liberty are so high
and if you if you had made it clear that
uh going to the bar spreading the COVID a lot,
and you know, maybe people self select decide not to
I don't know. Um Also, masks may reduce COVID nineteen mortality,
(02:32):
but there is only one study that examines universal mask
mandates the effects of border closures, school closures, and limiting
gatherings on mortality yields precision weighted estimates of point one percent,
UH four percent and one point six percent, respectively. Lockdowns
compared to no lockdowns also do not reduce COVID nineteen mortality.
I'll get to the discussion part. This is practically the
(02:55):
last paragraph. Overall, we conclude that lockdowns are not an
effective way reducing mortality rates during a pandemic, at least
not during the first wave of the COVID nineteen pandemic.
Our results are in line with what the World Health
Organization Writing Group in two thousand six stated. Reports from
the nineteen eighteen Influence of pandemic indicate that social distancing
(03:16):
measures did not stop or appear to dramatically reduced transmission.
In Edmonton, Canada, isolation and quarantine were instituted, public meetings
were banned, schools, churches, colleges, theaters, and other public public
gatherings were closed, and business hours were restricted without obvious
impact on the epidemic. In other words, we've lived through
this before, we've tried it before. They looked at the
(03:38):
data and the w h O had decided it didn't
do much good. Well, yeah, what's especially frustrating. And it
wasn't just the w h O, but Johns Hopkins itself,
in the w h O, in the CDC in April seventeen,
all put out reports about pandemic preparedness. This is pre
COVID now, folks, and all of them can concluded the
same thing that mass quarantines don't work, and so that
(03:59):
was a part of the plan. In fact, they said
they might be pursued for social or political purposes by
political leaders rather than pursued because of health public health evidence.
That's according to the gurus who have been calling us
to dance to their tune for the last couple of years.
Back to this most recent study. The most recent research
has shown that lockdowns have had at best a marginal
effect on the number of COVID nineteen deaths. And then
(04:21):
this sentence I thought, which was huge. Um. They conclude
in the study that interventions are generally effective in mitigating
COVID nineteen spread, But nine of the forty three results
reviewed find it no or uncertain association between lockdowns and
the spread of COVID nineteen, suggesting that evidence from that
(04:41):
study contradicts their own conclusion. Finally allows to broaden our perspective.
After presenting our meta analysis that focuses on the following questions,
what does the evidence tell us about the effects of
lockdowns on mortality? We provide a firm answer to this question.
The evidence fails to confirm that lockdowns have a significant
effect in reducing COVID nineteen mortality. The effect is little
(05:03):
to none. And here's an important paragraph. The use of
lockdowns is a unique feature of the COVID nineteen pandemic.
Lockdowns have not been used at such a large extent
during any of the pandemics of the past century. However,
lockdowns during the initial phase of COVID have had devastating effects.
They've contributed to reducing economic activity, raising unemployment, reducing schooling,
(05:23):
causing political unrest, contributing to domestic violence, and undermining liberal democracy.
These costs to society must be compared to the benefits
of lockdown, which our meta analysis have shown our marginal
at best. We this leads us to a strong conclusion
lockdowns should be rejected out of hand as a pandemic
(05:44):
policy instrument. Well maybe next time, echoing every single serious
look at this question. There has never been an authoritative
body that has recommended lockdowns. So frustrated, well, and it's
important to repeat what you said earlier. Well, yeah, I
(06:04):
think it is to a huge extent, Trump said, open up.
So the masses of the media and government and the
intelligentia said shut down, and that was it. It is
the most I mean the most, like you're a dumb
beast recoiling from fire reaction, Trump said, a so we
(06:24):
say b which which shows you to be so incredibly
easily manipulated my intelligent friends, my elite friends, you are
so weak and and the damage you've done is so
enormous to the kids, the anxiety, the depression of the suicide,
the self arm, the rest of it. And there's never
been an authoritative body that has said shutdowns are the
(06:45):
way to go. Never. It's just so incredibly frustrating to me.
And then we knew it, and we should have known it.
Just the Trump arrangement syndrome may be one of the
most interesting mass dellusions ever experienced by Homo sapiens. It
needs to be studied at the university level. The problem
is all the universities are in the bag for this.
You know, the sort of group think we've been talking about.
(07:06):
In the time we have. I think it's notable the
Atlantic publishing a piece by three women who are all
in the medical field, public health, that sort of thing.
They write, how much time do I have? Yeah, we
got time. In the panic spring of health, officials scrambled
to keep communities safe. They recommended various restrictions and interventions,
sometimes in the absence of rigorous science supporting them. Yeah,
(07:31):
excuse me, continuing the thing that was understandable at the time. Now, however,
two years into this pandemic, keeping unproven measures in place
is no longer justifiable, And honestly, I think they are
being too charitable. But anyway, at the top of the
list of policies we should rethink is mandatory masks for
kids at school. The CDC guidance on school masking is
(07:52):
far reaching, recommending quote universal indoor masking by all students
aged two and older, staff, teachers, and visitors to kids
through twelve schools, regardless of vaccination status. In contrast, many countries,
the UK Sweden, Norway, Denmark, Denmark and many others have
not taken the U s AS approach and instead followed
w h O get guidelines, which recommend against masking children
(08:14):
ages five and younger because this age group is at
low risk of illness, because masks are not quote in
the overall interests of the child, and because many children
are unable to wear masks properly, even for ages is
six to eleven. The w h O does not routinely
recommend masks because of the quote potential impact of wearing
a mask on learning and psycho social development. This part
(08:35):
is extra crazy. The fact that we are more strict
than Europe, more strict than the w h O masking
little kids is weird, and they go into some detail
on the patchwork of yes and no to masks. About
half of the country's fifty three million children remain compulsorily
masked in school for the indefinite future, even though there
(08:56):
is no responsible medical body that says it's doing any good. None.
I was picking up my son yesterday and watching the
kindergarteners get out of the early part of kindergarten. All
those little five year olds with masks on Europe in
the w h O doesn't believe in that there's more
detail you out of here. Many public health experts maintain
that mask worn correctly or central bubble others a reason
(09:17):
of doubt that kids can pull off mask wearing correctly.
We reviewed a variety of studies, some conducted by the
CDC itself, some cited by them as evidence of masking effectiveness,
often touted by the media. We were trying to find
evidence that would justify the no end in sight mask guidance.
We came up empty handed. To our knowledge, the CDC
(09:37):
has performed three studies to determine whether masking children in
school reduces COVID nineteen transmission. Uh And then they go
into some detailed long story short there is no solid
evidence it helps at all. Masking teachers seem to help
a little bit for a while, but there is no
evidence that masking kids helps. This is from the Atlantic, folks.
This is not from some sort of way out there
(09:58):
Alex Jones webs site. This is practically universally recognized science.
And yet the kids are still masked. Why Barmstrong and
Getty
Hosts And Creators
Joe Getty
Jack Armstrong
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