Balls, Bats, and Bets -- 10/20/23

#RedOctober fights on! Phillies need to rebound from tough Game 3, Astros/Rangers series has done a 180, and picks for all football action this weekend!

Episode Transcript

(00:00):
For national winners. From a localperspective, You're in the right place.
It's Balls, Bats and Bets withTim o'kee right here on the Gambler.
Happy Friday. Everybody, Welcome intoBalls, Bats and Bets. As always,
I'm your host, Tim O'Keeffe,And a ton of stuff going on
in Philly sports, national sports wegot you know, it's a beautiful thing

(00:23):
at this time of year. Octoberis to me, I did the best
sports month and it's leaving us nowherenear short for content. I mean,
Phillies, Eagles, just general collegefootball madness, Ohio State, Penn State,
NHL season kicking off the fly guysstarting off two and one. Look

(00:44):
at that. Who would have expectedthat? It's just a ton of great
stuff. But I'd be wrong ifwe're not going to start with red October.
I mean, first of all,I know I haven't spoken to you
guys in a couple of weeks.That atmosphere, wow again, we saw
it last year. We all knowit. We all know if you're from

(01:06):
Philly and you've been to one ofthose games, you know it's special.
It's like it's like nothing I've everbeen to sporting wise, and I've been
blessed in my life. I've beento a ton of sporting events, like
I'm sure a lot of you guysout there have, but it's it's like
nothing else. It's everyone is standingscreaming, so into the game, just

(01:30):
locked into the game, not evena thought of anything else going on.
It's living and dying in every seatof that ballpark with every pitch. And
you can't. You just don't getthat anywhere else. You really don't.
And baseball is such a y itit builds to that, right because it's

(01:53):
that one on one look. It'sit's slower than other games. We all
know that now that they sped itup this year with some of the which
is great, Hey, I thinkthey've all worked out, but baseball,
by being a little bit slower,having that one on one dynamic of each
pitch and that the tenseness of eachpitch, it makes it so the crowd

(02:15):
can have an impact like none otherin any other sport. I know it's
important when, hey, in football, you disrupt the other team's huddle.
It's important in basketball when you're messingwith the other guy on the free throw
line. I fully get that,but the way that this team that this
crowd, I guess I should say, is able to just absolutely destroy some

(02:40):
of these other guys on other teamsand just get in their head, and
how much it motivates our guys evenmore. In extent, Honestly, I
know that both pieces happen. Weget another guys heads and our guys get
pumped up. I think we alllike to think it's we're getting more in
the other guy's heads. That's themore fun thing, you know, when
you have the Spencer Strider chance,you have the Meryl chance for Game two

(03:05):
against Merrill Kelly. But I thinkit's more that when we're at home,
we just amp our guys up somuch, so much we're the tenth man
in the field. I know,Yeah, I know it's a corny saying.
I get it, but it's true. It's just absolutely true, how
incredible that atmosphere is, that itamps up everybody on that team. And

(03:29):
guess what, I don't know,I don't know if it's exactly fair to
say, but hey, sadly,then they go on the road and you
can get a stinker like you gotlast night. You can and again I'm
not saying it's yeah, we'll neverknow would that have happened at home and
a like really a somewhat do ordie Game three for Arizona. We'll never
know. I don't think it wouldhave. But last night sucked. We'll

(03:53):
dive into that right now. I'moff the crowd. We know we're all
great, great job everyone who's beendown to that ballpark. But last night,
hey, there's no two ways aboutit. Just awful, awful game.
The offense. We only score onerun and it's on a wild pitch.
So really, if that catcher makesa diving block, we're not scoring
anybody. We just did not getto Brandon Fought, who had a e

(04:16):
r a uh north of four ifnot, I believe north of five.
Excuse me going into that season,going throughout the season this year, very
young pitcher, inexperience and credit tohim, he looked fantastic, Like just
we had no shot. We reallydid, like so many of our guys
just went out there having no shotagainst him. And I don't know if

(04:38):
it was just hey, it's thefirst time we faced him. If he
found some extra motivation just being ampedup pitching at home out there in Arizona.
I I just don't know. Butwhat I can say, is that
if that that Phillies line up,if that, if that happens again,

(04:58):
or if we can't I mean,if we don't found out of this,
we're obviously in a ton of trouble. I don't think that. I don't
expect that to happen. I'll diveinto night in a couple of minutes.
But first off, credit to BrandonFought. I guess what you're not.
We're not gonna win every game inthe playoffs. It's it's not gonna happen.
But he looked fantastic last night.H Like I said, Philly's only
run scored on that wild pitch UFought's line. I guess I'll give you

(05:20):
that five and two thirds, twohits, nine k zero walks uh.
He also credit to their manager.They he pulled him out after two times
through the lineup. There was agame plan going in, you're gonna face
to go through the lineup twice,and even though he was spectacular, that
manager stuck to his guns. Ifeel like this, it's usually in no
win situation for the manager in thatsense, right, Because yeah, even

(05:44):
last night, you could still say, well, now now they've burned through
more bullpen than they needed to.Right. Like again, if people believe
that fought would have kept doing reallywell. But hey, they won the
game and a must win. Ihave to give the diamonbacks credit. They
played it right, they got thejob done. I am curious now for
tonight where how that feeds into thatbullpen game, which again we'll talk about
that in a second. But lastly, the last couple points on last night,

(06:10):
we wasted a great performance on Rangerand wasted's the wrong word. Look,
he we don't know what it is. We wasted, We lost the
game. He was elite. RangerSuarez in the playoffs is gonna be like,
you know, you fast forward liketen, fifteen, twenty years,
people will be talking about Rangers playoffRanger like that guy just has ice in

(06:30):
his veins. He's so chill,so cool, he lets up zero earned
just fantastic pitching from Ranger Suarez,just absolutely elite and the guy deserves all
the credit in the world. Andthere's no question he's your number three starter.
Honestly, again, if Nolan andWheeler weren't both fantastic pitching, there's

(06:50):
an argument to be made that Ranger. You could say Rangers should be a
number one if we didn't have thoseother guys and still feel actually pretty good
about your game one. Again,I'm not trying to say Ranger should be
above those guys. What I'm tryingto say is that Rangers pitching in the
playoffs is worthy of being a numberone on several teams. So just credit
to him. Fantastic job. Theother thing I need to call out again

(07:13):
now the negative side. We alllove a Ryan Kirkring. We do,
at least I do. I thinkif you know his story, you fall
in love with it. Guy startsout in single A this year and makes
his way up to the majors andhe's pitching meaningful postseason baseball. I think
last night showed me I still wanthim on the roster. I absolutely do,
but I think super high leverage situationslike that, it might be a

(07:35):
little too early for the kid.All right, Like Hoffman comes in,
does an incredible job stranding that runnerleft by Ranger Alvarado. Kimberl we know
are usually solid. That Kimberle lostthe game last night, I got you,
But I still, in general,while it's frustrating with Kimberle the way
he usually does it. I stilldo trust him overall to usually get the

(07:56):
job done. But that's mm hmm. So with Kirkering again, some people
are gonna say, oh, you'rebeing too hard on it's one outing.
Yeah, I got you, butnow we're in the playoffs. I have
limited experience at this guy in superhigh leverage situations, I'm not there.
I trust hoff I want Hoffman morein those situations that want Alvarado, I
want Kimberl I want there's other guysthat I need in those situations besides Kirkering.

(08:22):
And quite frankly, I mean,I'm there's a say, Christopher Sanchez
is going tonight, so you can'tuse him out of the bullpen. But
there's got to be some other thereare other options out there. Now.
Do I love Gregory Soto? No, But I I'd have Kirkering right around
in the amount that I use sodaat this point. Now that's just me
personally. I love the kid.He's got electric stuff. I'm not ready

(08:43):
to say that he's like this light. I trust Sir Anthony Moore. That's
another name that I forgot to throwout there. Like I I Kirkering is
a great fun story, but Ithink I think Topper might have overplayed that
hand a little bit last night.That's just my opinion. It's okay,
Hey, we learned into it,got through it, and it's look a
lot of one run. Wasn't thatbad Alvarado with an elite save to keep

(09:05):
it only to one run out ofKirkering. But yeah, very it was
a frustrating game last night. Wehave some takeaways. Lick our wounds.
Let's move forward, and that takesus tonight. Christopher Sanchez is going to
start Game four. Really happy aboutthat. I was going to put it.
I think most of Philadelphia was hopingthat it was going to be Christopher
Sanchez, and now I guess howdo I put it. I think there's

(09:31):
a fear almost that Topper was goingto be it was gonna go with Taywan
Walker because Walker is the guy makingthe money. Walker does have more a
lot more experience than Sanchez, andit was I I thought he was going
to go with Walker, and Iwanted him to go Sanchez. So I'm
happy the way he's going here.Christopher Sanchez has had a fantastic season,
especially the second half of this season, been really a huge clutch pitcher for

(09:52):
the Phillies. We wouldn't. Idon't think we get that number one wild
card without him. And now he'sgetting a shot to step up. He
said he's ready. If you seethe little interview with him last night,
he's given the wink afterwards like he'sready to go, Like that guy's gonna
step up. I know he's notthe big name nationally yet I expect Christopher
Sans to step up. And Ihave a big game Arizona going with the
bullpen game, right, good,they're going with the bullpen game. Joe

(10:16):
Mantiply, I believe I saw listedas the guy guy who would start,
Which makes sense if we're gonna startoff with our lineup of Schwarber, Turner,
Harper, that's two out of threelefties. Uh, maybe Topper mixes
it up and throws bomb out thereand put Bowm in the three. He
might, I'm not interesting. Itcould go either way there, But I
how do I put it. I'mstruggling to see how the Phillies don't destroy

(10:39):
the Diamondbacks tonight. And you guysknow me, I don't usually call for
like a murder game, like ohthis is like I I'll talk optimstically about
Phillies. I think they're gonna win. This to me is a calm before
the storm, Like, yeah,you look, we're all frustrated after last
night. Know who's you know who'sthe most frustrated Those Phillies. The Phillies
players, wells fans are for rust. They're even more frustrated because they know

(11:01):
they're letting us down. They letus down last night, they let themselves
down last night. It feels likecalm before the storm. The Diamondbacks bullpen
is not anything special. They're leftiesthat we've faced, we've had generally decent
success against. And it's this lineup. You're not going to keep them down
for two straight games. It's justnot gonna happen. And I how do

(11:26):
I put it? The Diamondbacks aregonna try to come out and keep that
momentum, and I think the Philliesare gonna snatch it right away from them
really early. I'm looking at thePhillies are coming into tonight as a minus
one thirty five. Their team totalis sitting at four point five to four
and a half, and but theoverall game total of nine and a half.

(11:46):
I am smashing the Phillies Monday lineat one thirty five and their team
total at four and a half.The over of course, I I think
this is a sleeping giant. Weall know that the offense has been a
lead. They had an off day. Don't worry about it. They're gonna
wake up. Those bats are comingback. Honestly. The play that I'm

(12:07):
going to do, I did itlast year for one game, and you
might remember which game, so Ihad success with it. I did it
for one of the World Series games. A little bit on every Philly to
have a home run. Individual bets, not a parlay, just individual bets.
Not talking huge units here. Look, it's still still a lot of
still juice odds. But I'll puta little bit on every Philly to have

(12:31):
a home run. And I havea feeling tonight that could get used a
good amount. It's this team hasshown resiliency all season long. They do
bounce back well, they know howto fight. Look look after look at
the Atlanta Series. Game two.We got punched in the mouth, a
game that we should have won.Blew it. What happened in Game three?

(12:52):
We came out dominated, took careof business. I expected to be
the exact same thing. This teamis going to wake up, bounce back,
and really just beat up on theDiamondbacks. Uh to get yet.
Is it gonna be a sweep?No? But guess what. The other
series in which we'll talk about thata little bit coming up, the American
Leg is too too. That's gonnabe like like a decently long series.

(13:13):
Uh yeah, well again, we'lldive into that later. But last thing
I wanted to talk about for thePhillies at least right now in this segment.
Uh, there's a there's a lotof guys that you can feel great
about for this postseason run. Thefact that they're here, and you know,
you root for different storylines. LikeTrey Turner is a very obvious one.
Bad start of the season, greatsecond half, and you gotta feel

(13:37):
good for him. It's his firstseason here and he's stepping up playing great.
Ryan Kirkran always ripped into a littlebit, but that's a great story
to follow. Guys start off insingle A this year. Now he's pitching
mean and ful innings in the postseason. That's great. Zach Wheeler just continues
to be mister no nonsense. AaronNola continues to I guess really to make
a ton more money for himself.I don't know if people are feeling great

(13:58):
about that for me, And obviouslyyou're rooting for the guy to do well
when all everyone have success, buthe's been fantastic When there was questions about
his abilities coming into this year orhis consistency, I guess I should say
and just absolutely dominant. But theguy that I feel the best about their
best four is Nick Castianos. Lastseason, He's a liability, there's no

(14:18):
question about. Right when he wascoming up to the plate last season,
you felt bad, like like nervous, like you're like, oh, crappy,
and he was batt and four forus, And we knew we had
this ability in him, right,We all knew. We'd seen it for
years in other places, whether itwas Cincinnati, Detroit, but he was
in Chicago for a bit. Theguy has ability, he does, and

(14:41):
obviously we're seeing it this year andhe's doing things now. He did something
that's only been done by mister OctoberReggie Jackson with the five home runs in
three games, Like just absolutely elitehitting from Nick Castillanos during this postseason run
and him with the story with hisson Liam always being there in the front
row, him celebrating. Point tohim, it's an awesome story, it's
great vibes, and he's just howdo I put it? Nick Castiano's even

(15:07):
though he's not from Philly, hejust puts out the most Philly vibes,
Like one of the most Philly vibes. There's a lot of guys that do
it, but man, just theyou know, gets asked how he feels
about Philly, he gets the ibleepwith Philly. I think you guys all
know what the bleep was. Justman, a fantastic story. Could not
feel better for him during this runand last thing we're gonna I just want

(15:30):
to do this last call out outsidethe Phillies, but related to Philis.
A different Nick or guy, NickPiccone here at the Gambler and does a
lot of great work on X Hehas been doing getting a lot of well
deserved attention for some of these videoswhere he sinks up different calls to different
videos. That way you get thefull feel for what different perspectives are on
each call, whether it's the opposingteam or our hometown voices. And man,

(15:50):
he's doing some really cool stuff withthat and he's getting a lot of
recognition, which is well deserved.He's even branched down to a new space
with some AI calls where Jim ownersmaking Philly home runs calls and he gets
Jim Gardner reached out. It's like, how the hell did you do that?
That sounds so good, and manit was. It's really cool to
see Nick getting that credit that hedeserves. Everyone check him out on X

(16:11):
so least that's where I that's whereI see his stuff post. I'm sure
he has other platforms as well,but I always follow him on X and
he is putting out some just fantastic, fantastic content there. With that,
we're going to take a quick break. Obviously, we'll bring well, we'll
keep talking through some phills as itcomes up. I want to talk some
al series, want to talk aboutthe birds, and then want to talk
through some picks for this weekend.Obviously a ton going on on here on
The Gambler. We'll be back onBalls, Bats and Bets right after this

(16:36):
The Gambling, Philly's home for allthings sports gambling, and we're back Ball's,
bats and bets on this awesome,beautiful Friday night in a nice fall
season, which I'm gonna give ahot take here. Fall doesn't really exist
anymore in the Philadelphia area, Likethis is, this is as close to

(16:57):
it as you actually get. Likeit's that like you know, fifties slash
seven into a low seventies or maybeeven before you can dip into the forties.
But it's such a thin time whereyou're in this before. It's really
we have summer and winter with asmall transition period right in the middle.

(17:18):
From winter, spring barely exists.It's like, all right, it's cold
and it's hot, and then fallis it's hot, then it's cold.
It's barely there. I understand,Like I love the actual time of year
that is this temperature and this setup. You get the leaves fall, and
that's great. We got football.I mean, football happens regardless of the
temperature, right, it doesn't matterwhere that is. But fall just doesn't

(17:41):
exist at this point. It justdoesn't. It's barely here. It's like
two weeks and then it's gonna bewinter and it's cold, and I'm ab
out there and for I'm out therefreezing my buns off, Like all right,
sorry, that's my hot take.I don't know why I decide to
go on a little weather ramp,but no, no, and I got
it out of the system. Speakingof rants, obviously, our show is
on Friday night, so it's beena little bit since this happened. But

(18:03):
uh, Eagles loss to the Jets. For me, it's not it's not
about that one game. Like,look, teams drop games all the time.
They shouldn't. That's this part ofthe NFL. That's the nature of
the Beast. Every team's out therehas filled a bunch of professionals, and
no one goes defeated. No onegoes undefeated. Obviously, Look, every
once in a while you get oneof those, but it's extremely rare,

(18:26):
and you get teams that sneak upand bite you. That's all right,
Like I can I get that,But the problem is it seems to be
furthering the issues that we've had tothis point in the season. When we
were undefeated, but it was kindof the hey, we won, so
you know, you mask it.Not to be fair. I'm a if
you win the game, I'll beokay type of guy. That is generally

(18:48):
my mindset. That being said,I have an issue with how things have
been looking overall, like it's justnot been a solid trend. Specifically,
let's start with the turnovers, right. Why the Eagles were successful Last year,
they were a top three team inturnovers. They were top three,

(19:10):
and I believe there were plus eighton the season, which is great.
That works, and now this yearthey're minus two. We're simply not taking
care of the ball the way thatwe did last season. We're not forcing
as many turnovers either, but thatI think. But the defense isn't my
problem. The defense has looked overallmost of these games pretty damn good.
The defense has been very solid.And even look this past week, they

(19:32):
really let up fourteen points. Theythey obviously they let the Jets score that
touch They let the Jets score thatlast touchdown to get the ball back and
get a chance at it. SoI guess you can say they would have
been seventeen. But yeah, no, it's how do I put it?
The defense is my problem. Theproblem is we're not taking care of the
ball. And that steers right intoJalen. And again, I love Jalen.

(19:52):
I'm not raising the red flag,but I definitely have some concerns.
One of his biggest strengths for thepast couple of seasons has been a he
takes care of the ball. Thathe takes care of the ball, which
is a It sounds easy, butthat's a huge thing in football that a
lot of people just don't fully understand. A lot of quarterbacks lose their jobs
because of it. Jalen's not nearlythat bad at But what I'm saying is

(20:15):
Jalen's not the incredible ball controller thathe was last season. He's you know
that how did I put that pickto end the game with the Jets?
Would seem so out of place ifI dropped that in the middle of last
year, whereas this year. I'mobviously surprised in the very moment, but
I'm not shocked that it happened,and that's a concern. Look, we

(20:37):
pay Jalen that he's gonna be atop five QB, all right, that
that was That's the expectation that wehave now after last season when he has
an MVP caliber season. And Idon't see this from guys like Mahomes and
Alan that are consistently in that MVPconversation. Joe Burrow too. Now,
admittedly Burrow's hurt this year, andagain people have I've had the arguments of
friends about this like people are saying, well, wait, well, why

(20:59):
are you Burrow's a slot. Burrow'slike known to be hurt. Now,
everyone is a little banged up infootball. I get that argument, But
Burrow's like known injured and he stillhasn't been able to get it all back
there. Now, if Burrow doesthis throughout the whole season, yeah,
I guess what now and now Ihave a problem. But he started this
year being known injured. So there'sa little bit of slack there. Whereas

(21:21):
Jalen, As far as we cantell, Jalen's healthy, right, we
don't. We only know what we'retold, and everything I've heard is that
Jalen's healthy, good to go.So with those three and the other guys
like that, you don't, Idon't know. There's not these long,
prolonged stretches where they look off.But that is what's happening with Jalen,
at least from the passing game.The running game, he still looking solid.
He's running, getting plenty of yards, the brotherly shove, getting him

(21:42):
in the end zone plenty. He'sdoing great from that perspective, But the
passing is not progressing. If anything, it's regressing, and it's a little
bit. It's a little nerve rackingwith those turnovers, honestly. Like again,
I'll mention again the Eagles finished thirdand turnovers last year, like in
the positive like turnover differential first andsecond last year san fran and Dallas.

(22:02):
This year the Eagles towards the bottomof the league minus two or bottom half
of the league. Guess I shouldsay, I guess who's first and second?
San fran and Dallas. That's yourmain competition in the NFC, and
they're doing a much better job ofprotecting the ball, enforcing turnovers, and
the Eagles are losing it out.And obviously to this point of the season,
it's not that the Eagle schedule hasbeen particularly hard, so it is

(22:23):
pretty concerning that now you're gonna runinto much tougher teams coming up and starting
this weekend with the Dolphins, whichwe'll talk about in the second. It's
just they haven't put everything together,and at this point in the year it's
concerning to me, again, Iwant to it is mainly on the offensive
side of the ball. The defense. To me, I actually think Sean

(22:44):
Decie has done a really solid jobto come in here and look, it's
a really talented defense. It isso not that time to say the job's
easy. But yeah, he's Yeah, he's set up well, and I
think he's taken advantage of it.I think that defense has been very solid
overall. The D line is thebest in the league. The linebackers are
below average, we know that,but I don't think they're a detriment at
this point, especially with that Dline being dominant as it is. And

(23:07):
then the secondary is above average.Like, it's a good secondary. I
still think it's not as elite asit was last year. Look, guys
are getting older, but it's stilla good secondary. And man, they're
gonna be tested this weekend. Butwhat that could mean and is unfortunate,
But like, hey, if SeanDesai has these Eagles defense looking as good
as it does, it's gonna bethe same thing where hey, when a

(23:27):
really good team, which the Eaglesstill are a really good team, and
I buy in that they're gonna lookthat good the rest of the year.
I think they'll win the division.We'll see about the NFC. Seawn Decai
is gonna get some head coaching interviews. That's just what's going to happen.
That's the nature of this beast thathe's done a very good job of the
Eagles defense. He's gonna be atleast talked about getting a shot and he
might not be here that long andthen you have to restart over. That's

(23:48):
just the NFL. That's the wayit is. But it's a yeah,
it's just something to watch out forif you're the Eagles. We're trying to
build this culture and build this consistencyof being a great, dominant team.
For this weekend, I have toI hate to say, I really see
this as being a Dolphins win.Uh. The Eagles have not faced a

(24:10):
team that's the Dolphins caliber yet,at least in my opinion. The Dolphins,
to me, I've been one ofthe most impressive teams in the NFL
so far, if not the mostimpressive. Hey, everybody has a loss
now at this point that Miami didlose to Buffalo, but man, that
offense is fantastic. Tyreek Hill,he's a guy, I you know,
all the field stuff, I cannever root for Tyreek Hill. I'll just

(24:32):
say that now from some of thestuff that he's done off the field,
But just trying to be objective aboutthe game. The guy is incredibly fast,
difficult to cover. He's on pacefor like twenty three hundred yards.
He's going to be a problem,and they they have great other weapons or
he moster running backs having an alltime year for him best year of his
career, career year Jalen Waddle,I believe, Oh, I have to

(24:55):
check if he's actually back from injuryor not. That's bad work on me.
I'll double check into that. Butanother elite weapon to A it's been
a very solid QB. There's alot of weapons on that Miami offense,
and their defense has been very solid. Honestly, the offense is what scares
you with Miami, but the defensecertainly isn't a weak spot necessarily. And
Sunday Night football it is in Philly. That's gonna give us a home field

(25:19):
advantage. But that being said,I think it's gonna be tough for us
to keep up because I don't knowif we can truly shut down Miami.
Maybe we can limit the deep plays, but they're just gonna get a lot
underneath that, and Tyreek Hill isa unique weapon that does stretch the field
better than anybody else in the NFL. I think this is going to be
a tough matchup unless we get toa ton early and just keep putting him

(25:42):
on his back. But we'll see. No, not many have been able
to do that so far. Spreadout. Last saw was Eagles by two.
I would not touch that again.I'll never bet against the Birds,
but you know what, you cantell what my feelings are about this game.
I think this game feels like aI'll be I think it's gonna be

(26:02):
high scoring. I think it's likea thirty one to twenty Miami victory.
Hey, hope I'm wrong. HopefullyJay, maybe Jalen and teach companies step
up and are able to go poundfor pound with them. We'll see.
That's why they play the game,and it's gonna be It's gonna be an
exciting one. There's a lot tolook forward to in this game, but
as you know, I'll get that. That'll be my official prediction, thirty

(26:22):
one to twenty. Sadly Miami beatsthe Birds, but I will watch it.
We knew this was gonna be atough stretch coming into Obviously, you
would have loved to have gotten thatJets win last week and still been undefeated
going into the tough stretch. Butnevertheless, here you are, and then
you're gonna work your way. Youthink you got Washington coming up after that,
so a lot of football to beplayed. It'll be exciting when that's
gonna be one of the better Sundaynight games that they've had all year.

(26:45):
I do expect that, just withall the fanfare. Don't lean into it
next. I didn't want to jumpover I mention. We're all talking about
the Alcs some so obviously, backback to baseball. The Rangers take a
two zero lead, win both gamesdown in Houston, and then what do
you do? You give it rightpack and the Astros are now tied again
to to taking the first two inTexas. Third game in Texas. Uh,

(27:08):
going on already? H I Ithink the Rangers. I think they
can win. I think they wintonight. If I'm being honest, I
think they bounce back and get onelike when when How do I put it?
It's a weird situation where it's theseries is even, but it's a
do or die like you can't goback to Houston down three to two after

(27:30):
having a two zero lead. They'regun. This is a do or die
moment similar to the way I feellike the Diamondbacks were last night. I
think Texas gets it done. JordanMontgomery has been fantastic going in throughout these
playoffs and in the regular season forHouston or not for Houston, excuse me
for Texas. Justin Verlander going forHouston obviously an all time great, but
Hug Texas has seen him. Ithink this is gonna be a higher scoring

(27:53):
game and not totals at nine.Give me seven to three Texas. I
think Texas offense wakes up, getsa couple of big hits early and holds
this one down. That doesn't meanI'm saying Texta's gonna win the series.
I obviously hope they do, andactually I guess I'll explain that in a
second, but it's it's gonna betough to win another one back in Houston,

(28:17):
even though I know they already wontwo. The Astros aren't gonna go
away quietly. They've made that perfectclear. But for tonight, give me
Texas. I will go to Texasto win seven to three, to close
out this part of the series that'sdone done down there in Fort Worth.
I know the last part I'll gointo here. I know there's been a
lot of debate from what I've heard, like, hey, who do you
want the Phillies to play in theWorld Series? Assuming we get there.

(28:40):
So I get through Arizona and Iget everyone's temptation and want to say,
hey, I want to beat theAstros. That's who I want. I
want to handle and beat the Astros, And I I get it. You
want that revenge factor. Plus theAstros are cheaters. It's always good to
put them put them down. ButI'm my number one goal. As I'm
sure a lot of your everyone elsewould answer this pretty some of the similarly
the leastest part of it. SoI want the Phillies win a World Series.

(29:03):
That's my number one goal. Iwant a banner hanging Insistens Bank Park
saying we got the job done.The easier road for that is Texas.
Even though actually Texas we are onthe road in the World Series, Houston
we are at home. I stilltruly believe that we are better off to
play Texas. They haven't had thatmany guys with that big a playoff experience

(29:26):
there. The Rangers as a teamhaven't been there at all. Recently,
they're pulling it all together and theylook they've had a great run. They've
been very solid. I just thinkthis Phillies team has a ton of momentum.
It's gonna be tough to stop them. The team that can stop them
would be the team that has themomentum of doing it last year, right,
Like there is that mental edge I'llgive to Houston if we run into

(29:49):
them where they took care of businesslast year, even though we got up
in that series. I think thatmakes it a little bit tougher. Honest,
I'm not saying we can't win.I think if you make me call
it, if we end up againstHouston, I would still take the Phillies
to win. But it's I thinkit's a lot tougher. I think you
can beat the Rangers in five games, especially if you split down there in
Texas. I think I think itcould be tough for them coming into cbp

(30:11):
uh into the bank and it justgoing like a madhouse. I just think
it could be really tough on them, which is what you want. You
want it to be really tough onthem. Uh. With that, all
right, we know we're running upagainst time for my next break. Uh
gonna do take a break after this. We're I'll come back picks, Picks,
Picks, Picks, picks, Collegefootball, NFL. Just a ton
of games that we're gonna talk through. Uh, we'll do that. Uh,

(30:34):
and then you know, maybe onelast little couple of notes on the
fils you though. I know wetalked about that in our first segment a
little bit, but maybe it's alittle bit more. Maybe it's a little
bit. We'll see if we havetime. All Right, this is I'm
Tim O'Keeffe on Balls, bats andbets again. Always follow me on TKO
Underscore picks, and we'll be rightback for our last segment right after this
spreads totals and all the prop betsin betweens. It's the gambler. We've

(30:56):
done the balls, we've done thebats. It's now time for the bets.
Coming up. We got a fullslate of football this weekend, which
is such a magical month. Wealready talked about. October is such a
damn good sports month. It's becauseyou're in the midst of football season,
basketball starting, hockey starting, andbaseball closing with the playoffs and World Series

(31:19):
coming up. But there's so manygames that I love this weekend. Looking
at this board, I'm gonna startoff on the college slate, so I
to dive in, starting off withwhat is likely to be one of the
ugliest games on the weekend, Minnesotaversus Iowa. I can't remember the last
time I've saw this, but thetotal in this game is set at thirty

(31:44):
one. That's not for one side, everybody. That's for the total game
for Iowa versus Minnesota set at thirtyand a half. Now, dear lord,
it's dropping by the second. Thisgame is screaming it's gonna to be
ugly. Iowa injured quarterback now theirbest receivers are tight end is also out.

(32:07):
I'm looking at the Minnesota Golden Gophersin this one. PJ. Fleck
and company. They they they waitfine ways to fight in this game.
They're getting three and a half points. I am gonna take the three and
a half because in a game wherethe total is at thirty, three and
a half is a huge amount ofis a huge number. I think it's
extremely ugly. I'm not brave enoughto take the under that's so damn low

(32:28):
that just a couple of touchdowns andyou're done. But I think this is
an ugly game. I could easilysee Minnesota winning. In fact, I
do like Minnesota to win, butI'm gonna take the three and a half
with the Golden Gophers as they gointo what is it, oh des Moin.
Yeah, I was gonna say IowaCity. It's not i Was City,
it's des Moines. For this gameagainst the number twenty four ranked Hawkkeys,
Iowa just plays ugly. Three anda half points is too many for

(32:50):
a Minnesota team that, in myopinion, is probably better at this point
based on the injuries that I wasgone under. Next one, I'll save
Pennsa Ohio State for the end ofour college slate. So our next game,
I got up here USC versus Utah. USC coming off their first loss,
just lost to Notre Dame, gotpretty beat up for being honest,
right, they got beat up byNotre Dame. They now come home,

(33:15):
they're facing the Utah Utes. Ilike a lot of times you say,
and you gotta hear me talking aboutthis in a few others. Do you
hear me talking about like the trapgame after a big, meaningful game for
a team that in that USC wouldfit that description here, I don't see
it. I don't think Utah isvery good. Cam Rising has been Hurt
has not played the full season.In fact, I don't know if he's

(33:35):
played it all. You know,let me do it now, let me
back off that. Let me doa quick double check though. Check out
that injury report for the Utah Utes. But really it's either way. USC's
got way more talent. Utah hasnot played anybody of this caliber so far
this year. Let's read off Utah'sschedule. Utah has beaten Florida, which
is a good good win, BaylorWeber State. They beat UCLA at home

(34:00):
in an ugly fourteen to seven game, and then they lost to Oregon State
twenty one to seven. Oh,and then last week they beat cal who's
nobody at thirty four to fourteen.Utah does not have the firepower to keep
up with the USC and Caleb Williams. They just I'm telling you right now,
they do not notre name just embarrassedUSC. I fully expect that USC

(34:22):
is going to show up and justmore or less get a little be ready
to embarrass Utah and just show everybody, hey, they shouldn't forget about them.
Cam Rising still not playing. Ithought I was right on that.
Yeah, Ben Barnes or Bryson Barnes, excuse me, is the starter for
Utah going going into this week,and it's I just don't buy. I

(34:44):
think Kyle Winning has one of thebest underrated coaches in the country. USC.
He's the Utah coach. But USCis going to dominate this game.
I love USC minus seven. Thisis a double digit loss for Utah.
I fully believe that. Next upon my list Arizona State versus Washington Washington.
The big game last week. Obviouslya lot of emotion going into that

(35:07):
game where they beat Oregon in alast minute thriller. Great game. This
is the letdown. Now they're homeagainst Arizona State. I'm not of course,
it's not going to be a losttwenty seven and a half points as
your spread. I am jumping allover Arizona State and Sun Devils with those
twenty seven and a half. Thoughthat's too many points. I smell let
down just a little bit for Washington, you know, ease off the gas

(35:28):
a little too much early on,keeps Arizona State in it, and then
Arizona State loses by somewhere between tenand twenty points. But Washington Washington State
lane in twenty seven and a halfafter that emotional big game last week against
Oregon. I don't buy it.I don't buy it. Give me that
twenty seven and a half points.Next, let's go back to the Big
ten. How about RUCKUSCKUS Rutgers goingup against Indiana Rutgers. I believe five

(35:54):
and one on the season, ifI have that right. Let's do a
quick double check here. Let's see, I believe five and one, five
and two, excuse me, fiveand two overall, five and zero at
home, oh and two on theroad. They're on the road this weekend.
But Rutgers has uh, Rutgers hada very solid season overall, they've

(36:15):
been out. Let's see, soopened up wins against Northwestern Temple, Virginia
Tech, got beat by Michigan,then beat wider and then they did lose
to Wisconsin last week but or sorrytwo weeks ago, and then beat Michigan
State last week on a big comebackwin. This is a Bowl eligibility game
for Rutgers, and really this istheir last like not last week. You

(36:36):
run into Ohio State next week.I was a week after that, and
then Penn State and Maryland. Isthe close out the Rutgers season. They
want to get to a bowl.This is their best shot. They know
how important this game is. Indianasucks. It's quite frankly, Indiana might
be the worst team in the BigTen. Rutgers has been very solid at
beating up on worse opponents. I'mgonna lay the six points with Rutgers even

(36:59):
though they're going two. Who's yourland out there in Indiana? Give me
Rutgers minus six. Mississippi State isgonna be my next play, Mississippi State
getting six and a half. Arkansashad a close, heartbreaking loss last week
against Alabama. That's their super Bowl, and they listened to the Arkansas schedule.
Here, let's look at this Arkansasschedule, Kensah Football Razorbacks schedule.

(37:23):
So last week they lost to Alabama, but listen to the games that they've
had before this. So before thatnumber thirteen Mississippi they lost by a touchdown.
For that, Texas A and Mbefore that LSU. Like, that's
such a gauntlet stretch of emotional gameswhere it's like big rivalries. Mississippi State's
another SEC team. I get it, but I'm struggling to see how Arkansas

(37:45):
is gonna get up for that one. I'm not saying Mississippi State has been
great this year. They haven't,but getting near seven points, I might
buy it up to seven. We'llsee what the odds are there if I
can find a spot that gives meseven. But Michigan, Mississippi State,
excuse me? Is my play versusArkansas? Next? Want to dive into
the big game for college foball everywhere, but also obviously locally. Penn State,

(38:06):
Ohio State, Penn State. Weknow the monkey on the back.
They can never beat Ohio State orMichigan consistently. Both teams top ranked in
the top six going into this weekend. Penn State getting four and a half
points. Penn State's undefeated against thespread this year, they consistently get They've

(38:30):
they've been underrated by the books.Ohio State has had more challenging of a
schedule. They beat Notre Dame,which is a very impressive win. But
how do I put this? IfPenn State's ever going to strike, it's
this weekend. Ohio State has shownsome weakness in my opinion, especially if
they should have lost to the NotreDame game. I guess I should also

(38:51):
say that because it was a botcheddefensive formation at the end of the game
by Kyle Freeman or Marcus Freeman.Excuse me there in a for Notre Dame.
Ohio State this season has not Imean, they've been very, very
good. I'm not trying to ripin too much, but I get the
sense it's not the same domin OhioState team. Kyle McCord, local kid

(39:14):
has looked good, but not great. I really buy in the Penn State
can win this one. We'll see. I know it's the kiss of death
whenever you trust Penn State in abig game, but I'm gonna go with
it. Give me the four anda half of Penn State ver going up
into the horseshoe against Ohio State.I also like a little on the money
line. I like the under twoforty five and a half. I think
both teams defenses really show up inthis one, so I'm gonna go under.

(39:36):
Forty five and a half is probablymy favorite play in the game.
But I think Penn State Nittany Lionsfans get ready to roar. I think
they got w coming up there tomorrowand that's gonna be a fun one.
That'll be a fun one. Next, let's jump over to the NFL.
It's got five games I like foryou here. So starting off, I
want to look at the Ravens versusthe Lions. The Lions are a darling

(39:57):
in the NFL. I get it. They're fun, They're fun. Day
Campbell's one of the most entertaining coaches. They got a fun offense. This
feels like one of those games thatJohn Harball reminds you that the Ravens are
a legit contender and in a statementwin Ravens are at home their three point
favorite Lamar Jackson's playing every I fullybuy in that the Ravens kind of just

(40:17):
do what the Ravens do, whichis find a way to win some ugly
games and just like you know,reminding everybody that they're one of the dominant
presence in the AFC. This feelslike the reminder game for the Ravens,
and we know John Harbaugh is goodat it. He's been doing it for
years on the road for the Lions. Given three, I don't love that.
Give me the Ravens minus three,I'm gonna be jumping all over that

(40:40):
one with Baltimore. Next up,we get the Rams versus the Steelers.
Steelers going cross country out to Lauh and I'm all over the Rams here
another minus three pick. I'll takethe home home small favorite. What the
Rams are great at is when theythey are when they have a superior edge

(41:00):
over an opponent, they are greatat exploiting it. Sean McVay is the
best, one of the best,I guess, I'll say right there for
the best game planner in the league. In my opinion. What he's not
great at is making adjustments on thefly. I will say that he's not
great at that. I still thinkhe's better than the lot people give him
credit for. But he's not great. He's probably average in that sense.

(41:22):
But he is a hell of agame planner. And what the Steelers don't
have they don't have cornerbacks. TheSteelers are weak against the passing game.
I think Matthew Stafford, and nowthat he has Cooper Cup back with Puka
Nakua is having a breakout season,I think there's going to be throwing it
all over the Steelers this weekend.We know Kenny Piickett a struggle. The
Rams are going to find a wayto get pressure with Aaron Donald on him.

(41:42):
I think the Rams dominate, dominatethis game over the Steelers give me
rams minus three in that one.Next we'll jump over to the Monday night
game real quick. The Vikings goingup against the forty nine Ers. Forty
nine Ers lost last week, firstloss of the season. You could potentially
expect to come back there, like, hey, you know we're gonna get
back to normal. I still thinkthe forty nine Ers win, but seven

(42:06):
points. I know Kirk Cousins inprime time, I hear people screaming at
me through the radio. I don'tknow. The forty nine Ers have injuries
coming into this. Both Debo andMcCaffrey are questionable. As we're talking right
now. It's a lot of points. Seven's a lot of points in the
NFL. I'm gonna jump on theVikings getting the seven. I think it's

(42:27):
a little bit of a higher scoringgame than people might expect. I think
the Vikings find a way to putup some offense, and yeah, with
the seven points, I think theyend up covering that spread. I like
the other two that I've given youso far a little bit better, so
probably a higher unit play for me, but I still do like the Vikings
to cover the seven points there onMonday Night. Next up, I want
to talk another one. The peopleare gonna be screaming at me for Broncos

(42:49):
money line. I scream, justget it out, get it out of
your system. Yell in the car, yell in your house, wherever you're
listening, get it out of thesystem. The Broncos have. While their
records suck, their offense has notbeen that bad this year. Russell Wilson's
actually played okay. I still,you guys know my takes on Russell Wilson.
I don't think he's a great quarterback. I don't, but he's played

(43:10):
okay, and I think that offenseis going to show up against the Packers
defense on Sunday. It's out andit's out in Mile High. I still
do not trust Jordan Love as faras I can throw them. A road
game for the Packers is not anythingeasy to win. I am going to
take the Broncos money line at home, they get a win, they show
up, get back in the getsome sort of momentum in the right direction.

(43:34):
Otherwise they would fall to one andsix. I think they wake up
and get that win at home minusone oh five in the money line.
Then the last play I got foryou under thirty seven in Falcons Bucks.
Neither of these offenses scare me.The Bucks offense is a little bit better,
but they I the Atlanta defense hasbeen very solid all year long.
I think this is an ugly,scrap him out game that you're not gonna

(43:58):
want to talk about afterwards. Somethingin the seventeen to ten variety, maybe
even less than that. So thirtyseven points, while it's low, I
still think it's way too high.It's low for a reason. Everyone give
me under thirty seven and Falcons Bucks. That's my last play for the weekend.
To give you a quick recap onthe college slate, We're going Minnesota

(44:19):
plus three point five, Penn Stategetting four and a half points, and
also under forty five and a halfin Penn State, Ohio State USC minus
seven, Arizona State plus twenty sevenand a half versus Washington Ruckers minus six
versus the Indiana Hoosiers and Mississippi Stategetting six and a half versus the Arkansas

(44:40):
Razorbacks over the NFL Ravens minus threeover the Lions, Rams minus three over
the Steelers, Vikings plus seven overthe forty nine Ers. Under thirty seven
and a half for the Falcons andthe Bucks and yes, Broncos money line,
screaming at me, whatever you gottado. We're running up against it,
folks, go fill get another win. Let's move on, Let's get

(45:01):
back to that World Series. Ican't wait. Hopefully we're talking World Series
next week on this show. Iam so pumped up. Take care of
business tonight, boys, go geta w everyone. I'll talk to you
next week on Ball's Batsman's Toy.Stay tuned all week to the Gambler postgame
shows. The guys have been doingon the Phillies have been fantastic all his
Daily Ticket with Sean John Jans onthe line, change everything and anything in

(45:24):
between. So many good, greatguys on this station. Tune in and
everyone, I'll be back with younext week. Talk to you soon.