Balls, Bats, and Bets -- 7/14/23

Tim O'Keefe breaks down the All star game week for MLB, some second half long shot bets, and the North Divisions in the NFL

Episode Transcript

(00:00):
For national winners. From a localperspective, You're in the right place.
It's Balls, Bats and Bets withTim O'Keefe right here on the Gambler.
Another Friday night and another episode ofBalls, Bats and Bets. Welcome in
everybody. As always, I'm TimO'Keefe. You can follow me at TKO
Underscore Picks, and we're back foranother Friday night of the sports action here

(00:25):
on the Gambler. Obviously, thisis one of the calmer sports weeks in
general. You know, the MLBAll Star Break, that's when you know
there's only out of the major foursports, you got one event on Monday
night, the Derby One All StarGame on Tuesday, and you got a
couple of days where it's pretty quietin the sports scene overall. We did

(00:46):
have MLS Action Wednesday, which wasgood help get us through. But it
is a calm week. But overall, there's a lot to talk about still,
especially you know football season coming up. We're gonna talk about that in
our third segment it up later andthen also I still I want to do
a deep dive into the All StarGame, the All Star Game itself,
all the festivities and just where baseballis at because it is a really interesting

(01:10):
topic. And when you hear RobManford speak about it, you get one
side of it. But and whenyou hear fans talk about it, some
fans give you another side of it. So a lot to dive into there
and just where the game is today. So that's where we're gonna start off
today with our first segment. Hesays, diving in on where baseball is
at right now, right now interms of this week in the game and

(01:30):
all that good stuff. And I'llsay it up front, I know I
am in the minority on this,as you all know, I'm a baseball
junkie. I watched the full game. I watched from the first pitch to
last pitch, and overall, itwas a let's start, let's start with
a good I'm gonna start with agood side. It was a competitive game,
right. It's the only all stargame that exists, in my opinion,

(01:53):
today's sport where the guys are givingit like the main two people involved,
at least the pitcher and then hither. They're giving it one hundred
percent, right, And that's abeautiful thing about it. Like the pitcher
is trying to get is trying toget an out, the batters trying to
get a hit. In the NBA, I'll start game, for example,
a guy on offense is trying toscore, the guy on defense doesn't care.

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It's so it's the one All Stargame where we have some actual real
competition going on and guys doing theirbest to do their job and help their
team win. Now, do theycare as much about it as a regular
season game. Probably not, butthey also look they're only out there for
a little bit at the time ofthe year. Say a batter is gonna
get what tuit bats and the pitcheris going to get an inning. So

(02:35):
you are going to get that highlevel of competition that we want to see
and it they're going to try toshow off for that little bit that they're
out there, and it does,in my opinion, create the best All
Star game out of all of them. Not saying it's as good as it
once was. Again we'll dive intothat in a little bit, but out
of the four major sports, Ithink it's clearly the best one. Hockey.
I will say hockey's done some interestingthings recently. I still think there's

(02:58):
some limitations on guys not wanting toget hurt because there's just more of a
physical sport. But hockey does deservesome respect on what they've done with They're
All Star Game. They're pretty prettyentertaining. The Pro Bowls are complete joke.
We all know that it's not evenworth talking about anymore. With the
Pro Bowl and the NBA All StarGame, it's it's just a hey,
everyone run up and down the courtand score like we know exactly what that

(03:21):
is. And it's fine. I'mnot saying don't watch it. I still
watch it too. I won't watchthe whole thing, but I'll still watch
a little bit of it. Butthe m OB All starting is competitive,
so that's a point in the goodcolumn that has to be compared to at
least around the other leagues that we'retalking about here. Next positive, they
tried some fun entertainment entertaining ideas thatI think you can only do in that
type of setting. They had thepitcher talking to the announcers while he's pitching.

(03:46):
That's fun. Again, I don'twant that in a regular season game.
Like if I see a Phillies pitchertalking to announcers while trying to focus
on pitching, I'm gonna lose mymind, like, especially if you know
we're fighting for a playoff spot andall of a sudden, I'll make it
up. Zach's talking to the announcersand then let's up a home run.
No, that's not okay, Butin the All Star Game you can get
that out there. I thought thatwas really cool, you know, hearing

(04:08):
and I did with Nathan y Valdifrom Texas where he was like talking about,
all right, I won't go gosplitter low and outside here, see
if I can get into bite andI like that. I do like hearing
that. That's a fun thing todo. Obviously, multiple other players miked
up during the game as well.They do have that aspect on like Sunday
Night Baseball sum I don't love itduring the regular season quite frankly, but
in the All Star Game, Ithink it's the perfect setting. I enjoyed

(04:30):
they had multiple guys miked up thatI hadn't seen before, where they were
like multiple guys talking to the announcersat the same time. That was a
cool concept. I also liked theumpcam. They used it more in the
Ulstar Game, I think than they'veused it in the regular season. Regular
season, it is a little bittough because you know, you still want
that full field view and want tobe able to see it off the bat
a little cleaner whereas. But butit is a fun thing to test out.

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So I think they did a goodjob of testing into some things and
just learning into it. Next up, the game was really exciting. Three
to win for the NL breaking aten year drought. Came down to the
wire. Julio Rodriguez coming up inthe ninth Games in Seattle, so it's
in front of his hometown fans,getting that electricity going to the stadium was

(05:12):
channing Julio. It was a reallygood atmosphere. It was fun. The
game was competitive. You know,Kimberll goes out there, gets to save
in the ninth inning, and itwas a really intense ninth ninth inning.
Honestly. Yeah, you got Julioup there and you're thinking he saw a
swing for the fences. He endedup walking and then Kimberll strikes out Jose
Ramirez to end the game. Butit was very, very good. It

(05:34):
was a good game. It wasentertaining. Again, Look, I'm not
saying for betting on the All StarGame. Again, I'm all for it.
I pretty much have my standard.I'll put a small bet in on
the National League each year. Obviouslythis year it hit. It's been a
bad bet for a long time.It's not anything you can get a real
edge on. In my opinion,it's a it's a fifty fifty flip of
a coin, but that it's justfun. And from that aspect of it

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too, you got your entertainment valueof it one way or another as long
as you was New Hayes is apure entertainment coin flip type bet. Phillies,
I thought they showed up pretty well. Castianos got on base both times
he was up, and then Kimbrellum Kimberrell with the clothes as I just
mentioned out. Really funny also thatthe worst, the only worst defensive outfield

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in all of baseball than the Philliesapparently is the National League All Stars,
where they literally had Nick Castianos playingcenter field for a couple innings. That
was pretty wild to me, buthey, it's it's fun again. It's
the All Star Game, and it'sthat's what that's what it's there for now,
right that it's meant to be entertaining. Get the guys in there,
and hey, guess what if Castiano'sbows the ball and center. He's not

(06:41):
losing a sleep over it. Notreally many other people are either, and
that's okay. So and he didn't. To be fair to its credit,
I think it was normal. Seemedfine out there. I don't think that
would hold up over the long term, but nothing jumped out off the page.
Also, the last thing I'll sayin the good column, not part
of this game specifically, but thehome run derby. I do think the
format is better. I know alot of people like the ten out style.

(07:01):
I how do I put it?When they made the original change,
I didn't. I didn't think Iwas gonna like the time version as much,
but I think I do the timeversion with the bracket, it does
add intensity to it, Nazi.It puts a lot of pressure on the
BP picture, which maybe a lotof people don't like. I'm fine with
it. You know what, Heypick your picture. You gotta select the
right guy to be throwing to you. And it also looked in the app

(07:25):
blending in with the idea of whatBaseball has been going for it their rule
changes this year. It makes itgo faster, right, because when you
was the ten out version you'd havethat picture potentially sometimes throwing five six pitches
in a row with the guy didn'tswing. That's not happening. Now.
It's intense, it keeps going andit adds that factor of endurance into it.
And was very good Vlad Junior gettingthe win there, very entertaining.

(07:46):
I think they Suplo did a reallygood job with it. Again, I
do know the ratings for the gameitself were low, and I guess we'll
jump into the bad on the negatives. The end result was the ratings were
low for the All Story Game.I think lowest in like ten twenty years
or something, which isn't great.I mean, Baseball's got to figure that
out and we'll go through. Ithink what some of those reasons are right

(08:09):
now. The first one is theAll Star Game is an exhibition and it
doesn't it doesn't mean anything in theactual season, right like it's it's meaningless
in the in the grand scheme ofthings, it's meaningless. Now again it's
there for fun, it doesn't.I I am also probably them in a
minority on this. I liked itwhen they did the home field advantage thing

(08:33):
for the World Series. I reallydid. I thought it made sense to
do it, that I gave itsome purpose where now I was actually interested
in it. I know the argumentagainst it where people are saying, well,
now you know, a player onthe Mets hits a home run and
all of a sudden helps the Phillieswhen they're in the World Series. Fine,
I don't care about that. Itgave them games some meaning, and

(08:54):
so what now it's his best record, and when if I have a team
that's in a really bad division,they're getting an edge in that at to
get that best record. I there'sno perfect system for that in my opinion.
So I was fine with using theAll Star Game and adding some meaning
to it. But the fact ofthe matter is the game the way it
is today, and some people likeit this way, and that's fine.
It doesn't have any real meaning likein the long scheme of things. It

(09:16):
just doesn't that and that's that isa negative, at least in terms of
ratings, I think, in myopinion. Next, with interleague play,
the Alster game is less meaning becausepart of the thing, you know,
back when you think seventies, eightiesand nineties, even two thousands, when
interly play was just really getting goingthere, you didn't get to see.
You know, that's a Craig kimbroif he was on the Phillies face off

(09:39):
against Julio Rodriguez. You just didn'tget to see that in the regular season
because there was American League and nationallythe schedules were completely divided at one time.
They never played each other except ifthe team's made the World Series.
And again, I'm glad interleague playis picked up. I think that is
a good call by Rob Manford forthe regular season, but it does add
a little lesson density for the AllStar Game. The other part of it

(10:01):
is it was tougher back then towatch. Like if let's take Mike Trout.
Now, great, he didn't playin the All staram Mar well you
show hey, Showeotani. Now he'son ESPN like once a week, right,
like in late night game some formsome form of regular cable has Showhy
or those main stars coming up.Again. You might need MLB Network,

(10:24):
you might need some other packages,but it's a lot easier to see those
American League stars that it might havebeen than it was in the past,
not that it might have been itwas in the past where you might have
only gotten your local broadcast and thereforeyou're only watching the Phillies and therefore you're
not able to see those stars.It's just not the same. Like,
even though they're not playing your team, if you're a baseball fan, you
can watch those guys. And theAll Star Game used to be one of

(10:46):
the only opportunities to see those guysfor some people, and that's just not
the case anymore. So again,just something that with technology has taken a
little bit away from the All StarGame. Now, the TV coverage is
just better than it's ever been interms of ability to watch. And last,
lastly and probably the most important,and this is the one that Baseball
if I'm Rob Manfred, and it'sbeen it's been Baseball's problem now for probably

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a decade plus, is star Power. Who were the biggest stars that we
saw this weekend? If you watchedall the All Star Game festivities, who
were the biggest stars you saw onthe screen? I'll tell you who it
was For me, Ken Griffey Juniorand edgra Martinez, you know, coming
out in front of Seattle getting thosemassive cheers, two Hall of Famers.

(11:31):
Those guys were star Power, KenGriffy Junior, a lot more than Agra
Martinez admittedly, but Griffy's a monsterstar. And then guys doing the broadcast
a Rod Big Poppy, Jeter,cal Riken Jr. Those guys are the
biggest stars out there compared to someof these other guys that are the stars
of today. But it was justit was a bigger deal back then you

(11:52):
knew who they were. I showthe only guy that might be on that
left that get he deserves to be, But it's just recognition wise. Showhy
is nearly is pretty much on thatlevel just by what he's able to do,
and he's so unique that elevates him. But I think baseball, and
we've known this, it's fallen backa little bit and the NBA has become

(12:13):
the number two sport in the world, or at least in America because he'son
let me black off that not inthe world. In America, it's the
numbers. It's the number two sport. It might be the number two sport
in the world. Actually, wherethe NFL fits in the world, I
don't know. We have to figureall that good stuff out. But in
America, the NBA is now numbertwo. MLB's number three, at least

(12:33):
in terms of what gets pushed,you know, highlights, what gets the
advertising, what gets all that goodstuff, star power, it's people recognize.
Let's take James Harden again, likea good star. A lot more
people recognize James Harden than Mike Trout. It just is what it is.
And I'm not saying one way oranother I would recognize both of them,
but your average person this ends uprecognizing that James harr in level player who's

(13:01):
worse than Mike Trout, like ifcomparative in their sports. That's not meant
to be a cut on James Hardand Mike Trot's an all time great baseball
player. But you see what I'msaying. If you're walking down the street
and at let's just go back tojust baseball. If you're walking down the
street, if a Rod or Jeteror Griffy was walking by, probably most
of you listening right now would belike, yeah, I think I can.

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I would pick them out, likeI would be able to see,
Yep, that's Derek Jeter, Yep, that's a Rod, Yep that's Griffy,
And you know you would be like, oh wow, you know I
wanted to get that picture, Likehey, let's do that like it jumps
out of you just by seeing theirface. Seriously, I'm gonna na give
you some guys some legit names rightnow. If you were walking down the
street and answer this, answer thishonestly to yourself, or are the people
around you? Whatever? If you'relistening to the group Ronald Acuna Jr.

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Juan Soto, Shohyotani, those guysare walking down the street right and they
walk right by you, do youthink you'd be able to pick them out?
Like? Do you think you'd beable to say, Yep, that's
Ronald Kuna Jr. I Look,I think I can I do. Look,

(14:07):
I'm hosting a sports show. Ithink I pay attention a little bit
more than the average person slash fan. You're an average fan. I if
they get one of those guys,I don't think you're average fan gets even
one of those guys. I reallydon't. And look, if you're in
one of their markets that I'm not, That's not what I'm calling out.
So if you're in La, Iexpect you to get show. Hey,

(14:28):
if you're in Atlanta, I expectyou to get a Kunia san Diego Soto.
But if you're you know, inPhiladelphia walking down the streets. Seriously,
if Ronald Kuna juniors walking down thestreet, are you going to get
him? I would be shocked ifeven twenty percent of Philadelphia is like,
oh, yep, that's it,which is sad in baseball, that's their
problem. Rob Manford needs to figurethat out, a way to get their

(14:52):
stars publicized, to get him makethem top notch, top I grabbing.
I guess that's the way. Imean, I recognize Mike Trout's face.
Mike Trouts from around here, sohe does get a little more play.
Excuse me, even though he playsout in LA. I don't know.
That's baseball's biggest problem with me.I think that's really one of the biggest
things as to why the ratings aredown is that they have not done as

(15:13):
good a job. The NBA hastaken their lunch in terms of promoting their
stars. And I don't have theexact answer for Rob Manfred, but that's
what you gotta figure out. That'sgotta be priority number one, is how
to make your guys recognizable again,like similarly the way that when we talk
about a Rod Jeter, Griffy,all the greats of that era that you

(15:37):
knew their faces all right, andthat's again overall, I thought they did
a great job of the All StarGame. But baseball does have some things
that they need to be working towardsin order to get back to what it
once was. All Right, we'regonna take a quick break. We'll be
right back. Gives comments on FoxSports The Gambler. The Gambler phillis home
for all things sports gambling. Welcomeback to Ball's bats and bets. And

(16:02):
at the halfway mark, again,we just did a ton with the All
Star Game. I did want totake some time to look at some long
shot bets that we can make forthe second half of this MLB season.
You know, some teams maybe theywere overperforming a little bit. Some teams
they were underperforming, And if youcan get it right, you might be
able to find some value in teamsthat fight back and get back into this.

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Some of these teams you're probably gonnahurt on prior shows, admittedly for
me, but doesn't mean I believein them any less. So we'll dive
right in. Let's go with Let'sjust start off at the head Hanschow.
Some world I looked at the WorldSeries odds found some teams that I really
think add some pretty solid value tous for what they could potentially do in

(16:47):
terms of winning the World Series.And I got three teams list up here,
all of them at least twenty toone. At least twenty to one,
which is actually the number that ourPhillies sit out. They're not on
my list, but and I don'tthink the Phillies are a bad play.
That doesn't mean I think they're abad play. I just I don't have
them as as good of value assome of these other ones. I must
start off with the team that's beenmaybe the most surprising in the MLB this

(17:12):
year. Maybe it's got they've gotto be right there if they're not,
and that is the Baltimore Orioles.Again. They've ever since, like you
know, May of last year,they've been phenomenal. They have the fourth
best record since May of last yearin Major League Baseball overall, third best
record in the MLB so far thisyear. They've been great. They have
a great young core, fantastic reallyAddlie Rushman is a stud. Austin Hayes

(17:40):
All Star, Anthony Santander not anAll Star, but played, has played
fantastic so far this season. Theygot a lot of great pieces. They're
in Baltimore, and they're young andupcoming. It's a good team. They
have done their great pitching, guyslike Kyle Bradish, Tyler Wells, They've
got Kyle Gibson. You know,former Philly has had a lot of success

(18:00):
down there. It's really credit tothem because they've done a fantastic job.
Right now, sitting two games backin the Al East, They're sitting at
twenty two to one to win theWorld Series. And yeah, I get
it they haven't had the playoff experience, but look, I mean, look
at the Phillies last year. Phillieslast year, a lot of those guys
didn't have playoff experience, and thenthey found their way in the playoffs and

(18:22):
almost got it done, came reallyclose. I'm just saying, I think
that's a really good value play attwenty two to one for the Baltimore Orioles.
Another team I'm looking at, andthis one it's not as sexy as
the Orioles. Well, the oddsare sexier, but the team itself probably
not as much. I'm looking atthe Milwaukee Brewers. The Brewers have been
letting people down. It seems likefour five, six years now, they

(18:45):
haven't. They've always been near thetop of the Central, if not at
the top, and they haven't gottenit done. The Brewers have great pitching,
they do. They have great pitching. They have a great bullpen.
Now the offense is a little ormiss, but they're in the very easy
division. I still fully expect themto win that division, and I know
the Reds are a fun story.Reds have a one game lead in the

(19:07):
division right now. I think overthe course of the second half, Reds
break down a little bit. Onlyone team's gonna make the playoffs out of
the Central. I expect that tobe the Milwaukee Brewers. They would come
in then as the three seed inthe MLB playoffs, and I'd expect them
to win well potentially when their openingseries, depending on who they're facing.
Right we can't can't project out thatfar, but they're gonna have a home
series, I guess I should say, for their first series, and that

(19:30):
pitching I think makes them a dangerousplay. I know that's been the theory
of Milwaukee now for a long time. People keep talking about and bringing up
and I get it. It's youknow boy who cried wolf with the Brewers.
But thirty five to one for ateam that I fully expect to make
the playoffs. And again there theReds are at fifty to one. So
this is the odds tell you,hey, we expect the Brewers to make
the playoffs. There's not a lotof belief in them. They're pitching makes

(19:52):
me think that they have a decentshot. I think the Brewers at thirty
five to one are a pretty goodvalue win the World Series. I do
now the last World Series play Igot, and again this one, I
know it's a theme with me.I still you know everyone has that team
they can't quit. I'm still lookingat the San Diego Padres. I am
they are just let me pull upthe standings. Let's get that alive real

(20:15):
quick. So the standings coming inthe Padres, that's the American like Padres
sit eight and a half out oftheir division and they are, let's see,
six out of the wildcard. Istill fully think that I really believe
that the Padres will make the playoffs. I do. I think there's so

(20:37):
much talent there, Soto tattoos,junior Bogarts, that lineup is stacked the
pitching is on paper solid as well. I think they end up putting it
together. Blake Snell has been phenomenalpitching for them. We'll talk about him
in a second coming up. ButI still think forty five to one for
the Padres is a ton of value. I really do. I still believe
that this team can make the playoffs. And once you get in the playoffs,

(21:00):
we saw it hat with the Phillieslast year. Again, they were
the last seed. You just needto get hot hot at the right time.
Padres last year made the NLCS,they started making progress. I think
forty five to one is incredible valuefor the San Diego Padres as they sit
here today on July fourteenth. Jumpinginto some division winners, some of these
are literally just a theme because they'rethe exact same. I do think I

(21:22):
will say this one's new. Well, let's start with the old. The
Padres to win the division. They'reeight games out of at twenty two to
one. Baltimore to win their divisionat four to one. Baltimore's wonly two
games back, and the Rays arestarting to show some holes again, losing
a little bit down the stretch towardsthe All Star break. They did when
their last game, but they lostanything. It was like five straight again.
They got swept by the Phillies andthen I think they lost a couple

(21:44):
to Atlanta. Starting to show someholes there in Tampa. I'm not saying
they're falling apart. I don't expectthat. I think they're still a very
solid team that will be playing inOctober. But Baltimore at four to one
of them in that division just twogames out, I think that's really good
value. I also say the Philliesto win their vision. The Phillies are
and I get it. The Bravesare up twelve twelve and a half games.
That's a lot. That is aton. It's forty to one,

(22:07):
like and I can't. I'm nottelling you I expect this to hit.
If anyone tells you they expect toforty to one to hit their line to
you, what I'm saying is Atlantais one team. If one team falls
out, yeah, I get Miami'sthere too, but not worried about Miami.
I expect Miami to fall. ThePhillies were hot ish going into the
break. They were they had playedreally well. They know they a lot

(22:30):
in the last series. They weren'thot, but right before that they were
playing really good baseball. If Atlantastarts to stumble a little bit, that
that to me seems like a likea whole Like I think forty to one
for the Phillies to win the divisionis pretty wild odds to be giving out
when there's I mean, I knowit's like half the season left, under
under half the season left, it'sstill to me, doesn't feel I think

(22:52):
that's really good value. Next,diving into the player props side of things,
out with some of the awards.UM, let's start with let's go.
Let's do the National leag MVP NationalLeague MVP Acunia is a huge favorite.
He's a minus three thirty, whichI get. He's been absolutely phenomenal

(23:12):
and he deserves to be up therefor sure. I think it's too much
to be minus three thirty. AndI look at the guys next to him
around him. Yeah, Mookie Betsat six to fifty, Freddie Freeman at
eleven to one, or Mookie Betsat plus six fifty, so about six
and a half to one. GormanCarroll thirty to one. Luisa Rai is
at thirty five to one. LouisaRais is interesting to me. He he's

(23:37):
doing something that we haven't seen ina long time. We know that this
voting is a little subjective. Someguys like seeing different things, seeing a
new thing come into play. LuisaRise. If he can hit like again,
he's hitting like three eighty three rightnow. He doesn't have to hit
four hundred dollars. If he hitsover three ninety, that guy's gonna get
looks. He just is and it'sit's unique case. If if there's an

(24:00):
injury to a Kuonieri's misses a littlebit of time, or he just starts
to slump a little bit, that'spossible. I truly think Our Eyes is
gonna get some MVP votes just becausepeople love old school baseball, and that's
what he's doing. The singles contactguy. I think Luis Our Eyes at
thirty five to one's a nice valueplay there for some other plays. Shoeotani,

(24:21):
I can't say him for the alMVP's a minus eight hundred and know
what he can get hurt. Ican't. I can't bat him at that
value. It's way too low.But I will say Shoeotani Cy Young at
twelve to one, Guys, weknow the MLB loves Shoeotani. They want
to promote Shoeotani. What better waythan having him win both awards Again.
I know, I'm like coming offconspiracy theory here, like, oh,

(24:42):
it's just all decide behind. I'mnot like he has to earn it.
But he's been one of the bestpitchers in the league. I think it's
fourth best dr a like second andstrikeouts or something like that. He's been
absolutely elite and he's pitching. He'sback. I don't we have the blister
injury. He's pitching tonight, Ibelieve I Why not, seriously, why
not at twelve to one take astab on Shoho Tani to win that?

(25:04):
AlSi Young. I also like NathanJovaldi at nine to one from Texas.
He's been amazing stepping up into Graham'sabsence. Yavaldi has had a fantastic season.
I think he's a very good valuein there as well for the al
Cy Young of things. And lastly, a long shot. Al Cy Young
a little bit of a familiar namefor us here. But Zach Eflin he's

(25:26):
had one hundred and fifty to oneand let's look, I get it,
he's probably not gonna wait at zachEflin. But he's ten and four of
the three two five RA whip underone at point nine nine. If he
can stay healthy and just you know, get that RA down under three.
If a couple other guys, I'ma couple of bad outings, all of

(25:47):
a sudden, he sneaks his namein there. He's been a fantastic pitcher
on the Rays, one of thebetter teams in baseball. I look when
he got the largest contract free agentcontract in Tam Bay's Rays history. I
Meldon, I knew he was goingto have a bounce back season, and
zach Eflin has done again. It'sone fifty to one. It's a long
shot. I'm not saying I expectzak Eflan to win the SI Young.

(26:08):
I'm saying that value is way toohigh. I will jump on that and
take him at a yeah, atone hundred and fifty to one, which
is wild to me. The lastone I got for you guys in the
NLCI Young side of things, I'llgo back, he said, I get
back when Blake Snell his last liketen starts, he's been absolutely lights out.
Start off the season, a littleoff, so that's why his stats

(26:30):
aren't as quite as high as others. He's sitting at plus nine to fifty
to win the NL SI Young andthat guy has been absolutely on fire.
Former Cy Young winner with the Raysa couple of years back. He's your
fourth favorite right now to win it. I really think that guy is lights
out, and that's Snell. Ifhe's been lights out, I think he

(26:51):
can continue being lights out. Andthat's a really really decent value there at
plus almost ten to one for BlakeSnell to win that Cy Young. All
right, guys, we're gonna takea quick break after we're gonna dive in
back into our divisions breakdown for theNFL. We're gonna go to the north
side of things AFC and NFC Northand we'll do that. Come back right
now after this on Balls, Batsand Bets. Right after this spreads totals

(27:15):
and all the prop bets in between. It's the Gambler. Welcome back to
Balls, bats and Bets everyone.As foreshadow, to close out the show,
we're gonna do another round of NFLseason preview. This to be going
to the north, the Northman goingup high towards Canada, so AFC and

(27:37):
NFC North. We're us to startin the NFC because I think I think
that's the lesser interesting in the twodivisions overall me and I think these are
both pretty good divisions with good storylinesacross the board, but slightly less interest
for me in the NFC side ofthings. We'll start with Chicago. Chicago
Bears last season didn't go well atleast from a team record wise, worst

(27:59):
record in the league, had thenumber one overall pick ended up training it
to Carolina, picking up DJ morethan the ninth overall pick in the process
of well as a bunch of otherpicks. And you know, while the
wins and losses didn't go their way, I wouldn't say it was a complete
down here in Chicago. The bigthing that they're all watching up there,
Justin Fields had a great second half. Justin Fields from week eight on twelve

(28:21):
tds to five picks, throwing aQB rating of ninety three and complete some
percentage of sixty four percent, andhe also ran for seven hundred and eighty
yards on top of it, statswise, that's a solid Finally games for
Justin Fields, showing a lot ofimprovement. Quite frankly, I didn't think
he had that in him, butI'll admit I was pleasantly surprised from what

(28:41):
I saw at him. Huge fantasyimplications for Justin Fields. Obviously, all
those rushing yards I think set quarterbackrushing record. When you look across the
whole season, it's absolutely phenomenal fromthat perspective. That being said, the
Bears lost every single game since thatstat in weekates a week eight all and
they lost every game. You know, quarterback stats are great, but you

(29:04):
do have to get some wins.So we're looking at the Bears overall.
I don't know we will see.I believe Fields is going to put up
stats again this year. I do. I think the Bears got slightly better
on offense around him. The offensiveline is still an absolute mess, but
they did get some more additional weaponswhere you have Dj Moore out there's the
best receiver that Fields has had inhis career, Co Cometz, a good

(29:29):
solid tight end they had him lastyear, and a few others out there
decent play out of Chicago. Theoffense still overall with bottom five last year,
even with the Fields putting up hispretty good stats. I don't think
Dj Moore is going to completely changethat I think they'll look they'll be better
because the second half they were alittle bit better of an offense than if
the first the first ever complete disaster. I just don't see this team turning

(29:52):
into a top fifteen offense. Really. I think if they can get to
top twenty, that would be anupgrade for them. And the only thing
worse in their offense with their defense. Their defense was bottom four in the
league last year, so not justbottom five. They are the fourth worst
defense in terms of the yardage andI just don't see that as this being
the Bears year. I still thinkit's going to be an ugly season.

(30:14):
Their win totals sitting at seven anda half. They won three games last
year. They do have an easyschedule overall, but I don't see them
getting to that eighth win mark.I see them as a six and eleven
team, and that's a three winimprovement that is going in the right direction.
They got all those picks from Carolina. I think long term, I
like the way the Bears are going, but I don't like I don't like

(30:36):
them this year. Give me theunder on the Bears. That's actually maybe
my favorite pick out of all thedivision the teams today in terms of win
totals. Next up will jump overto the Green Bay Packers. Brett Farve,
Aaron Rodgers, Jordan Love. Yeah, you heard the question mark in
my voice. Obviously, the Packers, if you go back to nineteen ninety

(30:56):
and then forward, they've had themost steady quarterback play out of any team.
And again that I'm including the Patriotsin that because you know, if
I go back to nineteen ninety wasa little shake here, but I mean
they've had two Hall of Fame quarterbacks. That's it. It's been really steady
up there in Green Bay. They'vebeen constant competitors, always in it,
and that's in large part due toquarterback play. Rogers moves on, he's

(31:18):
with the Jets, Jordan Love takesover at the Helm twenty six. Overall
pick a few years back inherits anoffense that I think it's middle of the
pack to below average in my opinion. Overall, great running game and Aaron
Jones and AJ Dillon. I dolike those pieces wide receivers and Christian Watson
showed some flashes last year, forsure, but how much does that as

(31:38):
Rogers, how much does that hasWatson that want to find out this year
their win total is sitting at Ibelieve. Let me double check this,
they're sitting at seven and a half, same as the Bears. I like
the Packers. I think if youmake me call it, I will go

(32:00):
under. I think it's close.I don't think their schedule is all that
tough. But I also like JordanLoves has got to prove it again.
I'm not in or out on JordanLove yet. Do I think he's as
good as Aaron Rodgers. No,I will say that. I think it's
a downgraded quarterback this year because AaronRodgers is Aaron Rodgers two out of last
three seasons as one MVP, sothat's not fair to put that expectation on
what was essentially going to be arookie. I know he's been in the

(32:21):
system now for two years, butit's his first full playing time he's gotten
handed the reins. I think it'sa down step for Green Bay this year,
and quite frankly, it's I thinkit could get a little ugly,
but I think they're around seven wins, so just under seven and a half.
I probably won't actually play that,but I'm just giving you heaf you
want to. If you're dying fora Packers play, I would go to

(32:42):
the under. Next up, goto the Detroit Lions. The Lions seem
to be the darling of the NFL, at least for teams that didn't make
the playoffs like there, and theyare a fun squad. Lins the definition
of just action packed right. Theyled the league in scoring, were lasting
league in points allowed, So it'sjust shootouts up in Detroit, back and

(33:04):
forth. Jared Goff really great season. I think that's surprised a lot of
people, but Jared Goff had agreat season, absolutely phenomenal. They do
have some changes on the team.They DeAndre Swift we know it was coming
over to the Eagles, and JamalWilliams has gone to New Orleans, so
new running backs in there where.They brought in David Montgomery from Chicago as
well as he used the twelfth pickon Jamir Gibbs. A lot of people

(33:27):
think they reached there. I wouldtend to agree with that. I didn't.
I at least, look, Ididn't think Gibbs was going to go
that high, and all of asudden he's the twelfth pick. They also
drafted a lineman from or a linebackerfrom Iowa in the first round as well.
A little bit of question marks onthat, it seems like. But
I do like Dan Campbell's head coach, and he gets the guys fired up
and they have a they know whatthey're good at. They're good at scheme

(33:50):
and they're good at they kind ofan air raid almost for what the NFL
is and Jared Goff I think canhandle it. I think he's going to
have another solid season. I thinkthe Lions will be going towards the right
direction. They're going to deal withsome suspensions. I think several players across
the board, including Jamison Williams,the former first round pick out of Alabama
who played a little bit last year. He was hurt for most of the

(34:12):
season. He's suspended for six gamesfor gambling. The Lions seem to have
gotten a lot of the brunt ofthe gambling suspensions out there, them and
the Colts being the two main offenders. But I we'll see it's a high
number. It's nine and a half, which is the bigger number for the
Lions, and we're used to seeing. I am slightly leaning over, just
ever so slightly. I am leaningon the over on the Lions in that

(34:37):
spot. But it's it's gonna begood. It's gonna be a lot of
shootouts, are going to be anentertaining team and a lot of value fantasy
wise for those guys out there,for anyone out there looking to just pick
a team to load up on.The Lions. I do not think are
a bad one whatsoever. Lastly,for the NFC North, we will go
I believe the furthest North, andthen, actually I don't call me on

(34:58):
geography, we'll go to Minnesota CaptainKirk. Last year they led the team
thirteen four, won the division,lost to the Giants in the playoffs,
which you don't hear too often thesedays, but it was kind of a
you know, the record, thirteenand four is nothing to wave your finger
at. That's a damn good record. They played very solid football, the

(35:20):
three seed in the NFC behind theEagles in the forty nine ers, but
it was kind of no one believedit. They had a terrible defense.
They were the second worst defense inthe NFL, only behind only better than
the Lions, and I think thatled a lot of people not trusting it.
They do have explosive offensive players withJustin Jefferson out there being the main
one, probably most explosive player inthe NFL. And Kirk Cousins, Like
I know, Kirk Cousins has haters, Kirk Cousins has backers, he has

(35:44):
both sides of Kirk Cousins is tome, you see what you get like
it's or you get what you get, you know what you're getting. Maybe
that's the phrase, you know whatyou're getting. He's good, He's not
great, He's not bad. Isgood and Kirk Cousins is able to man
the ship and put this team towardsthe right direction. I think they do

(36:06):
have still have the most continuity.There's a lot of changeups in Detroit.
So I will still take Minnesota towin this division after winning thirteen games last
year. They're win totals at eightand a half. Dalvin Cook has gone,
but Alexander Madison should be able tostep into that role. The defense
is going to be pretty rough.I mean they tried to address it a
little bit, but I don't expecta ton of improvement on that side.
Second worst defense last year. Youknow, you try to get that up

(36:27):
towards twenty ish. If you canto help make that improve and we'll see
if they're able to do so.But I buy in that Minnesota is going
to have another decent season. Ithink Kirk Cousins is going to be just
fine, and I don't expect themto do well in the playoffs. I
don't think this is not a superBowl title team, but I do expect
them to win the North again,even though I know the Lions. Love
is real and I personally I likethe Lions like I just like the routual

(36:49):
Lions. You know that down andout the underdog if you will. But
I just don't know if I seethat happening this season. I think the
Lions will be much better. Ithink the Lions can make the playoffs,
could be a wildcard. I willtake Minnesota to win that division coming out
of the AfOR Sorry NFC North,now diving over to the nf ER.
Sorry the AFC North man, I'mgoing backwards on these AFC North four teams.

(37:10):
You have the Steelers, Browns,Ravens, Bengals. We're gonna talk
about him in that order. Uh, let's go right to the Steelers.
Mike Tomlin's teams, they don't theydon't go through rebuilds. And I look,
I love that about Mike Tomlins.This division has two of the top
five coaches and maybe top three coacheshonestly in the league in my opinion,
four let's say top four, withMike Tomlin obviously being one of them.

(37:35):
Steelers went ninety eight last year,missing the playoffs, and they played in
all of Tomlin's tenure. Last season, they played their second game ever the
last week of the season. Itoccurred where they this game didn't matter to
the Steelers, but didn't matter.I mean they were eliminated. So every
other game besides one in Mike Thomas'scareer has the Steelers have had a chance
to keep pushing forward and make theplayoffs. Absolutely incredible. Defense is legit.

(38:00):
T J. Watt one of thebest players in the league. Just
dominant on that side of the ball, and they built it up the steel
curtain. It's always there. It'salways a solid presence, and I do
believe Mike Tomin's not going to letthat fold. Really, I think they're
gonna have a solid season on thatside of the ball. Kenny Pickett,
it's kind of meth last year,in my opinion, look room to grow

(38:22):
seems to have the ability as adecent pocket passer. I want to see
him keep developing a little bit relativelyeasy schedule the AFC South and NFC West
divisions coming into there, I fullybuy in. Then Mike Tomin gets this
team back over five hundred. Thisis what he does. He's a very
solic whicher's over five hundred last year. They're win total sitting at eight and

(38:44):
a half. I know they're ina tough division, but I think the
schedule outside I'll help them get there, and they're gonna represent the division.
They're not gonna get beat up byeverybody. You know, the Steelers are
good for a couple of sneak wins. Give me over eight and a half
for the Steelers in the AFC North. Next up, dive over to the
Cleveland Browns. Sticking strictly on thefield here because we know the whole.

(39:06):
I'm not gonna go to Shaun Watsonoff because that's just the whole of the
rabbit hole. Last season, Watsonreally was the worst he's ever been in
his career. Set in six games, he had sevent tds, five picks,
only seventy nine QB rating, whichhis previous little before that was a
ninety eight, so not what youwere used to seeing out of him when
he was down in Houston. Hehadn't played since twenty twenty, so I

(39:29):
have for a lot of people sayhey, he's got to scrap that and
write it off, and in generalI kind of him agreeing with that mindset.
This is the proved year for ShaunWatson. He's now had a full
off season with this team. Hehas one of the best offensive lines in
the league, got ranked second byPro Football Focus, right behind the Eagles,
so it's a top offensive line andas decent weapons, Nick Chubb's one
of the best running backs in allfootball, Mark Cooper pretty solid, and

(39:52):
a couple other decent weapons out therelike Donovald's, Donovan Peoples Jones. The
defense with Miles Garrett is solid likethey are a solid defense, middle of
the pack to above average in myopinion, and I expect the Browns to
surprise a lot of people this yearand be pretty solid even in this tough
division. I think there's value onthe bets for them to win the division.
At plus four twenty five, Ithink there's value there. They have

(40:15):
the easiest schedule for the division sincethey finished in fourth last year, so
they'll get games against the Cardinals wherea team that the Bengals ends up playing
the forty nine ers and that endsup that can end up being a swing,
especially if the Browns can defend hometurf and some of those division matchups
and split some of those matchups withteams like the Ravens and the Bengals.
So we'll get to in a second. I think there's value there. The
Browns total nine and a half.I like the over. I am in

(40:37):
on the Browns this year. Iunderstand morally that's a whole other question for
what you want about I'm strictly justgoing from a betting standpoint. I think
they are going to be better thanwhat the books have them at right now.
Jumping over to the Ravens, anotherquarterback record setting deal and Lamar Jackson
was the guy this time and hegot his money. Lamar Jackson got paid

(40:58):
rightfully. So with former league MVP, I'm surprised as to where we landed
based on how ugly it ended upgetting. I kind of thought he was
going to go somewhere, but theRavens and him came to that agreement.
He did not get the amount ofguarantee that he wanted. I guess the
markets wasn't out there, but hegot paid. I no one should feel
bad for Lamar. Don't feel badfor the Ravens. That's just negotiation and
they got there. They did bringin some weapons for him. Odell Beckham

(41:21):
Junior comes in Zay Flowers, thefirst round pick out of Boston College,
as new weapons for Lamar Jackson.On that offense, Rumors they want to
be throwing the ball more this year. They have changed offensive coordinators strictly to
address that, but not strictly toa dress up, but just you know,
time to mix it up a littlebit. And that's one of the
theories that they're going to throw itmore, try to rely less on Lamar's
legs, although of course that's stillgoing to be a big piece of the

(41:43):
offense because that's that's what Lamar Jacksonis better than really almost anybody in the
league. Ravens win total sitting atten and a half. The defense is
good. It's not as Ravens likedefense as I thought in the pass like
It's not overwhelmingly good in my opinion, but a solid defense total wins.
It's sitting at ten and a half. I do love John Harba as a

(42:07):
coach. He's the other coach inthis division I think is easily top five.
I think this number is a littlebit too high for the Ravens.
I would lean under. I thinkthey're a nine maybe ten win team.
Lamar Jackson did get like I said, he got paid. When guys get
paid, it sometimes can now takea year or two to get them back
to what For some reason, Idon't look at Russell Wilson got paid.

(42:29):
Just not looking good out there inDenver right now, and we'll see if
he cut bounces back. But Ikind of have a feeling it's the meth
year for the Ravens. I knowthey made the playoffs last year. Lamar
Jackson's hurt a lot of the years, so I was kind of an up
swing, if you want to callit that, for getting to the playoffs
without having your quarterback. But I'mgonna go under. I think that division
is really tough, and it's Iknow what I think essentially. Look,

(42:52):
I think the Browns are gonna stepup and take something from the Ravens there.
I think the Steelers will also takea win or two that they were
they've gotten last season, so I'mgoing to go with the under on the
Ravens win total of ten and ahalf. Lastly, will jump over to
the division favorite, the Cincinnati Bengals. Most complete team in the division in

(43:14):
my opinion, and getting close tobeing the most complete team in the NFL.
I mean, I'm not saying they'repassing the Eagles again, will do
the NFC East coming up some ofthe time, but they're up there in
terms of complete teams. Let's let'sjust leave it at that. The Bengals
with Joe Burrow, who is anMVP candidate, absolutely fantastic quarterback. I
don't besides Patrick Mahomes, I thinkBurrow's my next guy that I would take

(43:37):
to build my team around. Andthat's not meant to be a cut on
Jalen. I love Jalen. Jalensright there too. It's Joe Burrow to
me, just I don't know,there's something there that I just see and
Jalen has it too, and I'msuper happys here. So do not take
this as an anti Jalen thing,but I would say I think i'd go
Mahomes. Mahomes Burrow. Jalen isthe way I would go for if I'm

(43:59):
building my team, so then jumpingforward, they also have great weapons Jamar
Chase, Joe Mixon and company.And now they have a very solid offensive
line or the sorry excuse me,the only hole being in middle of the
pack offensive line. Sorry mixed upmy Browns and Bengals notes there. They

(44:20):
added Orlando Brown Junior, which shouldhelp a lot. Again, PFF had
them being one of the most improvedoffensive lines even though they're only ranked seventeen.
That's up from twenty eight, sothat's a big improvement and giving Joe
Burrow more time back there is onlygoing to do good things for the Bengals.
I expect a phenomenal season. They'rewind tone sits at eleven and a
half. I see this team goingwell more than twelve and five. They're

(44:43):
probably like a thirteen and four,maybe even fourteen and three. They are
that good. In my opinion,I think they're an elite team. So
I'm willing to go with the overon the Bengals, and I think they
wouldn't division, even though I dothink there's some sneak value with the Browns
at plus four twenty five in termsof a value plays. That's what I
got for you tonight. Everyone.Thank you for coming in, thank you
for listening. We're gonna keep doingthe NFL divisions throughout the course of the

(45:07):
summers we lead into football season.We'll do some college in here as well,
but we're we're gonna kill it fortonight, Balls, Bets and bets
is done. Thank you for tuningin on Fox Sports A game. We'll
tune into the daily ticket line change, all the Powers, Parlay, the
Divide, Live Baseball Brunch this weekend. There's so many good things going on

(45:28):
on Fox Sports. A gambler,make sure you keep it too, all
year long, but especially now inthe dog days of summers. We're prepping
for football, but also got greatbaseball coverage. As you know, we'll
be back next week. I'm TimO'Keeffe. Talk to you soon.