July 29, 2023 • 48 mins
Tim O'Keefe hits on the MLB trade deadline, the discussions around Running Back value in the NFL, and the AFC/NFC West preview for NFL.
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
(00:00):
For national winners. From a localperspective, you're in the right place.
It's balls, bats and bets withTim o'keee right here on the Gambler.
Another Friday and it's time for balls, bats and bets. Welcome in everybody,
thanks for tuning in. It's veryvery interesting time going on. We
(00:20):
got NFL training camp going, footballis in full swing. I think I
saw what is it? I thinkthis weekend coming up. This weekend is
the last weekend without some form offootball. Now grand I know it's gonna
be preseason, but hey, that'sthat's a huge thing, right last week
go without any form of football untilFebruary, so that's a beautiful thing.
(00:40):
We got the Phillies, you know, being the Phillies. Baseballs in full
swing, MLB trade deadline, gotso much going on around the round,
sports in general, with football comingup, baseball going in full swing,
NBA rumor mails, all the goodstuff, and we're going to dive right
into it. Let's art off withMLB and the Phillies. Again. It's
(01:04):
on a good note right now,but it's just up and down, up
and down. After the All Starbreaking, you know, you take three
or fourth from the Padres. Thenyou'll lose back to back series against the
Brewers and the Guardians, and thenyou take two or three from the second
best team in baseball record wise.The Baltimore Orioles absolutely up and down kind
of run. And is it frustratingto be up and down? Yet it
(01:26):
is? It's absolutely frustrating. Buthey, I am optimistic about the direction
that this team is heading at themoment because really, when I look at
the state of the National League,I see the Phillies as being in a
very advantageous position. I've said thisfor a couple of weeks now. I
think there's two teams that are clearlyabove the Phillies, that is the Braves
(01:49):
and the Dodgers. And after that, I think I have the Phillies is
the next best team. I thinkthe Phillies are the third best team in
the NL, which is more thanI could say, you know, a
couple of weeks back about I guessmore that I could say a couple of
weeks back, but also more Icould say last year, right go at
this point in the season, andobviously we know how last year ended,
where we won the National League Pennant. So even though it's been up and
(02:12):
down I and it's been frustrating.That's the word for me. It's been
frustrating. I still I'm optimistic aboutwhere this teams had. I like the
way to build up is. Iknow a lot of people are worried about
the lineup, and rightfully so.It's underproduced, all right, Trey Turner,
it's not. I just don't thinkit's gonna happen this year. It's
frustrating his Helle. I think it'sthat, hey, guys moved to a
new city. Get that build up, big contract. It takes a year.
(02:34):
We saw the Castianos, We've seenit across the league many times.
I think it just takes a year, and it's frustrating, but I think
that's is where we're at. Idon't expect that much at a tray for
the rest of the year. Imean, better than what we're getting.
I think he finishes as a twosixty hitter. I think right now he's
like two forty eight. So we'llbump it up a little bit, hopefully
a little more pop, maybe sometimely hitting. But I just don't expect
(02:55):
it to be this year. Youneed guys like j. T. Castianis
has dipped a little bit since theAll Star Game, so need him to
pick it back up. And youknow, Alec Bom, Bryce Harper,
all these guys that we expect tobe decent hitters, we need them to
pick it up. But I fullybuy in they're going to be able to.
I really do. I think overallthis team is going to be in
(03:15):
a pretty good position, especially sincewhen I look at where we are for
the Wildcard Race. You know,right now, I believe let me get
that latest standings. I believe wewere second in the NL Wildcard Race at
the moment, hold please one,two, three, Jeopardy music playing,
Come on here we go? Yes, second place right now in the walker
tie with the Reds. Really fora second, that second slot half a
(03:38):
game back on the Giants. I'mjust not scared of the teams around us.
I'm really not. And one it'sbecause like the capabilities of the teams
themselves, when I look at themon paper, the Phillies are more talented
than Giants. They're more talented thanthe Reds, more talented in the Marlin,
it's more talent than the Diamondbacks.They just are like on paper,
You're not going to find a teamthat is out of those five that's better
(03:59):
than the Phillies. You're just notnow. Granted, on paper doesn't always
come to fruition. That's why youhave to keep on it and keep trying.
But another thing the Phillies have intheir favor is they got an easy
schedule for the rest of the waycompared to the competition, they have an
easy schedule. Phillies have the seventheasiest schedule left in Major League Baseball,
which is best in our division.Granted we're not catching Atlanta, but best
(04:20):
in our division, and it's thebest among all those wild car contenders are
just named. The only team that'sa wild card contender that's better is the
Brewers. Now, the Brewers rightnow tendually leading in the Central, but
you know Cincinnati is just like agame and a half behind them. So
you want to count the Brewers andthe Races, Well, find the Brewers
that have the fifth easiest schedule,so right around the same as the Phillies.
(04:41):
Not a drastic difference. But thenwhen I look at the other teams,
how about the Marlins third hardest scheduleleft, third hardest schedule left.
That's a huge difference in the Phillies. We're having the seventh easiest. That's
not easy. And now the Marlinsare in. They are buyers. Made
that trade for David Robertson last night, which is interesting. You know,
hey, they're buying in, They'regetting a bullpenpiece. David Robertson seems to
(05:04):
be on the move every other youknow, season, if not every season,
actually, I guess it's more morelike it in every couple of months.
I guess it's probably fair to sayhe's had a great year up up
in New York for the Mets,and that's kind of the signal I guess
to me that the Mets are probablysaying, you know what, we're accepting
it's not this year. Which isinteresting is Robertson has been one of their
best relievers, and their bullpen hasbeen weak overall, but Robertson has been
(05:27):
one of the bright spots. Sothey're selling off. He's an older arm
I get it, I get I'mjust surprised they're going to throw in that
towel. Giants a little bit betterof a team in my opinion in the
Marlins, just a little bit,or at least do I count the Moore's
threat the Giants had the fifth heartestschedule in Major League Baseball. Fifth artist
a lot of games left with theDodgers. These my games of the Diamondbacks,
like, they have some tough gamesleft. So it's how do I
(05:54):
put this? How do you putthis? Lately? One, the Phillies
are already better on paper, atleast in my opinion. Everyone you can
disagree. If you're a diehard Giantsbeliever out there, fine, you can
tweet at me, tell me orwhat is it now? Exit me?
Oh man, they can't. Theyare they are doing too much with that
platform. But um, yeah,you know, tell me what you gotta
do. But yeah, as Ilook through this, the Giants have six
(06:15):
left with Atlanta, three with Tampa, seven with the Dodgers. They it's
not easy. It's just not easy. And then the Phillies, you know,
the Phillies, they're toughest games left. Phillies also do have seven with
Atlanta. But then it's you know, Blue Jays is their next toughest team
they play the rest of the way. At least in terms of win percentage.
That's not too bad. That's justnot that bad. When I make
(06:39):
that comparison to teams like San Franciscoh d Backs and Reds. They're middle
of the pack schedules, toughness,d Backs at thirteen, Reds at seventeen,
you know, middle of the pack, but both harder than the Phillies.
For those thinking, hey, youknow, Mets and Padres might not
be done. Mets are seven gamesout of the last wildcard slot right now,
Padres six and a half. Uh. The Mets have the seventh hardest
(07:00):
schedule remaining seven against Atlanta and sevenagainst the Phillies, which you know,
you could view as an upside,but they that's not easy. And then
the Padres are middle of the pack. They're at fourteen. So Padres schedule,
yeah, not that, not thatthat bad um got a lot of
games off with the Rockies on theirside, another series with Oakland, so
I get that. A lot ofgames with Saint Louis two. Actually,
(07:21):
who is surprising. It has stillbeen a weak squad so far this year,
but it's all lining up. I'mstruggling to see how the Phillies are
not in the playoffs. I reallyam at this point. Folks. It's
just it doesn't it doesn't seem feasibleto me, Like I I know,
I know they're like literally half agame up on it or a game up
(07:42):
right now. I just really wouldbe shocked to this team doesn't make the
playoffs. I know the line,I get the line of concerns. I
get things, and we're gonna talkabout what we can add a trade deadline
coming up very brush shortly. ButI just don't have that concerns. I
think we're gonna be in the playoffs. They're gonna be the top wildcard seed.
I really do. I would besurprised if we're not going over the
amor the league side of things.We know there's it's kind of a it's
like a two division race over there. Really with the AL Central. You
(08:07):
know, there's one team that's gonnamake from the Central. It'll be the
probably the Twins. That looks like, in my opinion, the excutally not
the Indians. The Guardians are alsoright there. I can watch. I
can't even see Detroit sneaking up there. I think that divisions is so weak.
But besides that, one team's comingout of the Central, and then
it's an incredibly strong AL East anda pretty strong AL West. With the
AL East, the Orioles sit atop of sixty two and forty, followed
(08:33):
by the Rays one and a halfgames back, Blue Jay's five and a
half games back, Red Sox sevengames back, and the Yankees eight games
back. That's for the division.But the Yankees were in last place,
only two and a half games outof the final wildcard spot. So it
is really really good contention up thereat the top of the AL East.
(08:54):
I'll call out one thing that I'msurprised I'm gonna I'm surprised me in this
case. But you know, therace start it off the season. I
think of what was at thirteen andnow fourteen. I think it was thirteen
and now, So you're thirteen andnow they are now as we are talking
today, sitting at what is thatsixty two and forty three. So if
I take off that thirteen now,and of course it counts, they're only
(09:16):
six games above five hundred. Theyhave the second toughest schedule remaining in Major
League Baseball, with a four gameslump against Baltimore, three against Houston,
six against the Blue Jays. Guys, I think Tampa's still gonna make the
playoffs, but they gotta watch out. They really do. I they've been
(09:39):
faltering a little bit. They reallyhave and tam I like the raise.
I love rooting for the small marketteam, but they have absolutely been faltering.
I you gotta watch it how tohear them, because they don't have
that many easy games left. Theyhave nine games total against Colorado, Saint
Louis, and Detroit. There wasn'tonly easy games left. That's it.
Those are the only easy games theyhave left in Detroit's not terribly so.
(10:01):
Now you got these other teams thatyou've got a lot of series against tough
opponents. Tampa's one of the bestteams in the league. I do fully
believe they'll make the playoffs, butyou know the value might be there to
take a little hedge on maybe theydon't. I think this AL wildcards gonna
be really interesting. I just talkedabout the AL East. Then you got
the West where we got the Angels, the Astros, and the Mariners and
(10:24):
the Rangers. The Rangers are winningthe division, the other three are right
now fighting for the wildcards slots.And it's really really tight there. It
just is so all those there's seventeams right now fighting for wildcards. Well,
I guess you want to call tenteams I would say in the AL
that I could really easily see makingthe playoffs, maybe even eleven on.
It's because I have to count theGuardians because they could catch the Twins.
(10:46):
So there's eleven teams I could seefighting for six slots in the AL,
which is a really crowded field.The Angels have been one of the more
interesting ones. Obviously, we'll startI guess we'll just take this time.
We'll dive into our trade deadline talk. The Angels saying, hey, Showhey's
not going anywhere. He is stayingin La I do believe they shopped around
and see where they could get,which if you're the Angels, you have
(11:09):
to it's smart. You have tofind out what is out there on the
market. They didn't seem to begetting what they were looking for. So
he is staying put. And actuallythe Angels become buyers. They go out
and really make one of the firstbig moves and they go get Lucas Giolito
and Ronaldo Lopez another a good arm. Giolito is a guy I do buy
in, and he is. He'sa solid pitcher. He's gonna be around
(11:31):
for a long time. I don'tknow, He's not gonna be elite,
like we once kind of thought.But I think he is a very just
solid two three guy in that rotation. Ronaldo Lopez, another decent arm has
shown flashes and the Angels are buyersget like it's they have the six hardest
schedule left. But three games out. Had a great game on Tuesday or
sorry Wednesday, great games, Ishould say, sweeping Detroit and a doubleheader,
(11:54):
man, I have to give Imean, look, we all know
what showhy does this incredible day inand day out, one of a double
header, complete game, shutout orsorry it's a shutout, one run I
think it was a shutout. Ithink it was a complete game shutout.
And then second game hits two homeruns. All right, you can't make
(12:15):
this stuff out. I can't doa make a video game character that does
this. I can't like. Thisguy is absolutely incredible. I believe it
said second time it's ever been donein baseball history. For someone to do
that in the same day, justabsolutely incredible elite player. I was shocked
when I saw him, Like,can you imagine pitch like your picture?
There's a complete game where he wasalso hitting in game one and then stills
(12:35):
like I know what, I'm gonnago out and hitting Game two. He's
not ice in the arm. Nowhe's swinging, and he's dropping two over
the fence. Absolutely incredible. Againthat I won't go on a Ben Verlander
show. Hey, rant right now. So I'll take a twist back other
teams that I expect to make moves. I think Baltimore's prime in a prime
spot to make a move. Ireally do. They have so much young
(12:56):
talent and so many good prospects.Now am I expecting to give up guys
like Jackson Holiday, you know,number one pick from a couple years back.
Now, I'm not expecting that.But what I am expecting is some
of those, like you know,top hundred guys, maybe towards the middle
low part, make a move.Go get an extra arm, go get
an extra bat. Although their batsare really solid, I mean I think
(13:18):
they could use the third basement.I was trying to see, like low
key, if they could be aspot for Ronado. I think it's a
good fit from a trade perspective,but it sounds like Arnado with that no
trade clause, has a one spotin mind. I'll dive into that in
another second, but I think Baltimoreisn't a prime spot to make a move.
I also think Tampa. Tampa alsohas a lot of good young talent,
and I know those are usually nothuge spending organizations, so they like
(13:39):
to hold on to that young talent. I get it, But when you
have an opportunity like that, Ithink we do have to consider taking advantage
of the opportunity you're in where youare in prime position to compete for a
World Series. And I think theyboth are going to make some moves coming
up, especially with all the youngtalent they have, they can outbid most
(14:00):
anybody. They are two of thetop farm organizations in all of baseball.
I fully explained going to make amove going over to the Phillies. What
do we see from the Phillies potentiallydoing. I think Dombrowski is going to
make a move. It's it's whathe does. He's aggressive and I like
it, and I think it's agood spot. I just told you I
think the Phillies are a playoff team. Yes, they're gonna be a wildcard
team. You're not catching the Braves, but in today's baseball, you can
(14:24):
we saw it last year. You'vegot to get an invite to the dance
and then you can make anything happen. Do I think it's going to be
a major, major move. Probablynot. I think it's going to You're
either going to get a corner outfielder, hopefully right handed back with a little
pop, or a starting pitcher.The guys that I keep hearing the most,
I also do think are the mostlikely than Cody Bellinger playing for the
(14:46):
Cubs this year. Guy can playall three outfield spots. Um. Yeah,
I believe he has left handed sothat's not super ideal. We have
a lot of lefties, but youknow, you can make it work.
He's having a bounce back here.Former MVP with the Dodgers, Uh had
a rough end of his time.I'm in LA for the last two seasons
before this, but now he's hada nice bounce back in Chicago. It's
a one year plus deal. There'sa mutual option. He's had a good
(15:07):
enough season he's going to opt out. So this is really a pure rental.
I think he's the most likely guythat ends up in a filly uniform.
EDWARDO Rodriguez picture for the Tigers,who's having a very very solid season,
is another name that I see comingup has some Dombrowski ties, and
I don't think he would be thatmuch because he's also kind of a pure
rental He does his contract can canrun for another couple of years, but
(15:30):
it's all on a option, andhe's having a good year. He's gonna
opt out, He's gonna want toget paid. So I think this is
another pure rental type piece. SoI don't think they're super expensive cost I
really don't Detroit. It's not gonnamake like doubtful Detroit makes the playoffs,
doubtful Chicago makes the playoffs. Ithink they are still both going to be
sellers. Even though I think they'reboth within tank like six and a half
eight seven games of a playoff spot. I imagine they're both still both going
(15:54):
to be sellers. Realizing this isnot their year. I think that though
either of those two guys helps thePhillies make a case to be a better
contenter for the World Series, I'mnot I'm starting to fall off the idea
that Hey Goldschmidt or Arronado is goingto find their way to Philly. I
just don't really see that happening.Saint louis the only one I've been hearing
(16:15):
is Arronado to the Dodgers. I'veseen a little bit around now and surprise,
there's not more action around Goldschmidt.I haven't seen much, but Arnado
seems to will potentially want to goto La Rumor has his agents said that's
the only team he would wave hisno trade clause for, and it sounds
that the Dodgers really are interested ingetting him in Dodger Blue. The other
(16:37):
team I would say to watch assellers, and actually I'm run up on
time, so we'll take a quickbreak in a second. The other team
I see as potential sellers the Padreswith Juan Soto, Blake Snell, Josh
Hayter. I'll start with Hayter andSnell. Hayter and Snell our rentals at
this point. They're both their contractsare up at the end of the year.
If the Padres really don't think theycan do it, they would be
the first two to go. Inmy opinion, I would then really focus
(17:00):
on Juan Soto. If I'm thePodres, I'm not trading him. I
think the Podres are still built towin. I know it hasn't gone well
this year, but I would stillhold him. That being said, they
saw the package that they got forthey gave up for him last year.
You could probably get not all thatback because now it's another less year of
control, but you could still geta huge package for Juan Soto. I
(17:22):
don't think they're gonna move it.I think the Podgres are gonna try to
keep contending. But we will see. If they sell one piece, it
could be a domino effect. Andyou see several guys leaving San Diego.
All right, well, we're gonnatake a quick break, get back to
your right after this, we'll diveback. Give us couple minutes on Fox
Sports the Gambling Gambling phillis home forall things sports gambling. You know,
(17:45):
the only thing that's dangerous about runningover in your first segment is that you
then have to slice down your secondsegments. So we're a little bit of
rapid fire here. Well on balls, bets and bets, welcome back.
Yeah, we're gonna do some rapidfire. There's a couple of topics going
around sports world that I really wantedto hit on the first one, that's
(18:06):
probably the biggest one for this segment. I want to dive into the running
back situation in the NFL, butthe markets and you know, running backs
getting together trying to figure out thevalue because clearly the position has become devalued
over the last ten years, fifteenyears, twenty years. It's been,
you know, ever since the daysof the seventies and eighties where it was
(18:27):
you know, run first league andit started to become more pass heavy.
I feel like the running back positionshas been on a steady decline, but
it seriously has, at least interms of dollars, fallen off a cliff
in the past few years. It'sjust by past few let's call it five
to ten where and again I thinkyou see this way. A lot of
(18:49):
NFL teams see it as a positionthere you can just plug and play guys
that there's not a significant variance betweenthe top tier, or there's a there's
not a significant variance between like aboveaverage and average. Like it's very much
you got a couple top tier guysand then everyone else is kind of this
grouped together, and a lot ofguys are seen as plug and play um
(19:11):
as well as Look, it's beenviewed as a position where players break down
quicker, so it's scarier to givebig contracts, and how do I put
it? I understand both sides ofit. Look, if you're a running
back, you know, you comeout of the you come out of college,
you're a draft pick. You're lockedup with a team for three to
four years, or maybe it's fourto five years. It's gonna four to
(19:32):
five years, depending on how longyou're in, how long your contract is,
what rout and you're drafted in,so you're in the draft pick,
you're making again, this on thisis all in the scale of things.
Right, you're an NFL player,you're making good money in terms of your
average person. But for the NFLstandards, rookie contracts are the cheap contract.
Right, That's where teams, teamsget the most value out of player
(19:53):
because it's hey, yeah they're ontheir rookie contract, don't make a ton
um. The issue that that thenleads to running backs is by the time
most of their their rookie contracts aredone, a lot of them are towards
the end. It's just the case. We've seen history with it where running
backs don't last nearly the same asother positions. Look, we saw Tom
(20:15):
Brady playing at forty four forty fivelast year, You're never gonna see a
running back playing at forty five again. I don't think it's I don't know
if it's ever happened, but you'renot ever going to see it to get
You're never going to see it goingforward in the NFL. It's just you
get two beat up at the position. It's just not possible, it's not
feasible. It's how do I putYou're just taking hits after hit after hit,
(20:36):
and the body's not meant to doit for that long. So then
if you're an NFL owner, aGM when you're evaluating, hey, how
do I put out the best team? Yeah, investing in running backs has
been proven to not work. Itjust hasn't. Look at the look let's
look at the last ten years andelite running back contracts. All right,
how about Todd Gurley. Todd Gurleywas the first one, you know back
(20:57):
in was that twenty seventeen eighteen.He was great, absolute elite. The
Rams then invested in him heavily andhe was just not the same. After
that first contract, it started fallingapart, breaking down, and he was
out of the league I think beforethirty. Ezekiel Elliott. Do you think
Dallas would do that deal? Again, No, I wouldn't, and I
(21:18):
wouldn't want them too if I wastheir fan. It's a problem like there's
this They running backs break down andby the time it's time to pay them,
there's just not a not enough meatleft on the bone. There's just
not there's not the values not there. It's ends up being a bad decision
if you're trying to win a SuperBowl. Not saying it's every time.
Look, Christian McCaffrey still a solidplayer after he got paid. But again,
(21:44):
this is the other issue. Youdon't build a team around the running
back anymore. Look, he wastheir best player in Carolina. Carolina was
going nowhere. It's a combination ofthe first two things I mentioned, where
a lot of teams see it asplug and play, but there's not that
big of variance between the top endand the middle end. Eyes as well
as the you know, they justdon't last as long running backs breakdown.
But then after that you still underthe problem of teams don't build their team
(22:08):
around running backs anymore. The onlyteam that's had some success in the last
five years that I see is beingbuilt around the running back is Tennessee.
Tennessee's been built around Derrick Henry andthey've made the playoffs several times. They've
been a decent team. They worldthe number one seed one year. Like
Tennessee is a good team. Theystill number won a Super Bowl, so
they never got to the ultimate goal. But they've been solid. And other
(22:33):
teams are where they have good runningbacks. But it's it's really quarterback first.
You know. I can look atthe San Diego Chargers or sorry,
Los Angeles Chargers. Austin Eckler,great running back, Justin Herbert's the most
important player in the team. Yes, you look at other team. Let's
see who's another great right, ChristianMcCaffrey now in San franz probably their best
(22:55):
offensive weapon. They don't have areal big quarterback, but we'll see how
that goes again. I you're gonnahear it coming up. We're under the
NFC West. I end up havingquestions about San Francisco. I think I'm
only too because of the quarterback situation. It's not anything kind on Christian McCaffrey,
but this league's just driven my quarterback, not running back anymore. So
that's the problem from the if I'man owner, or that's called me a
GM, not even owner. IfI'm the GM, I have a salary
(23:18):
cab with a fixed amount of dollarsI can spend. It's proven time and
time again investing in running backs toback. Call it just is. And
I get the frustration from the runningbacks in that where their prime years are
when they're on the rookie contract,that's when they're most valuable. But the
problem is the way that draft setup. Now, look when you get
to the negotiation table where you getthe CBA's up, and then you get
(23:41):
to the yeah, the CBA expiresPlayers Association versus the NFL that negotiation,
maybe they try maybe the players whodidn't try something there try to say,
hey, one less year on runningback is side of the draft or something
along those lines. I think that'sthe only way you could try to address
it. I don't know if ownerswould go for that, but maybe they
would. And even then, evenif they do it, I don't think
(24:03):
this is gonna overall solve the problems. I mean, the fact of the
matter is the average running back salarythis year is less than the average kicker.
Now there's multiple that's not running backstarters. I think that is where
that stat's deceiving. Starting running backshave a much higher salary than kickers.
But if I'm counting these second andthird string running backs, yeah, guess
what kickers are out there every singlegame. Second and third string running backs,
I mean they get on the fieldsome, but not a ton.
(24:26):
Especially it depends on the offense.If you have a workhorse back, you're
not getting out there that much.It is a conundrum. I get the
frustration on boat side, well,I get the frustration from the running back
side for the league. For theleague it's working because it's hey, you
know they've evaluated it, they've seeneach team's trying to win a championship,
right. I don't think there's anycollusion or anything going on where, oh,
(24:47):
they're trying to devalue the running backposition across the board, like just
to save money. I don't thinkthat's the case. What it is is
that's proven over time that running backsare replaceable and that they break down.
I know I'm harp on this spoints, but it's very interesting to see
what's gonna happen going forward. Iknow we had that all running backs meeting
a couple of weeks ago, Likeyou know, Derrick Henry, say Quan,
(25:08):
Austin Ekeler, all those guys gottogether. I don't know what they
can do. I really don't.I guess you can try holdouts. I'm
seeing that with Josh Jacobs. Idon't know, especially if I'm the Raiders.
Why am I going to pay itcommit to a running back a long
term That's just not going to happen. It's just not I don't know what
Josh Jacobs expects to get out ofsa Quan did his hold out and got
(25:29):
like I guess, like a couplehundred thousand dollars more, which that good
for him. Get your m getas much as you can, but it's
not it's not the same. It'sjust not the same. It's it's not
any long term deal. And saQuan's probably gonna get franchised again next year
if he produces, and that's justnature of the beast. But hey,
in that case, he would maketwenty two million dollars, So I'm not
feeling too bad for him. AllRight, we'll get we'll get off that.
(25:51):
But I am curious to see nextoffseason when this CBA comes up.
What happens there, because that isgoing to be one of the big topics
because running backs, running backs,it's been a it's been a hot issue.
Now we've hit that boiling point,it seems like the other item I
wanted to call out Colorado football,Deon Sanders new program going to the Big
Twelve after this year. That tome, while Colorado is not a powerhouse
(26:17):
in football by any stretch at leastyet, we'll see what coach Prime can
do out there. What I'll sayis they I think it's I think that
moved with Colorado. That's a signof the Pac Twelves, the one that's
gonna be left out. They're theone's gonna be left out of the coal.
We knew the Power of five conferencestructure wasn't gonna last forever, and
to me, it's reading like thisis the first sign the Pac Twelves,
(26:37):
the Domino, the Pac Twelves,and one's gonna fall. I only the
Big twelve in a sec after that, we'll see if four can survive.
I think I think long term,you know, we're talking ten years from
now. I think it's three.I think it's big ten sec. And
then one of these other two that'sa big win for the Big twelve getting
Colorado, which is gonna get alot of eyes just by Dion being there.
We'll see success wise, but Ithink the fact that they are leaving
(27:00):
the PAC twelve for the Big twelveis signaling, Hey, that's the Pac
twelves and some serious, serious trouble. All right, we're gonna take another
quick break. We're gonna go throughthe West divisions in the NFL. When
we get back after this really exciteda lot of good storylines there will break
down and we'll be back on FoxSports. Gambler right after this spreads totals
(27:22):
and all the prop that's in between. It's the Gambler, all right,
let's get back into it. Thelast couple of weeks we've done NFL division
previews. We've already knocked out boththe AFC and NFC North and South.
Now it's time to go out westwhere we're gonna start off looking at the
(27:45):
AFC West, which, as weknow, a pretty loaded division. When
you get out there, your team'sthere, Chiefs, Chargers, Raiders,
Broncos. Really interesting division in myopinion, with some elite quarterback play.
We know Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbertboth you know, mahomes the top Herbert
(28:07):
arguably, like, in my opinion, I think Justin Herbert will be if
I was drafting quarterbacks today, youknow, put everybody in the pool who
I want to start my team with. I think Herbert's right around number five,
So elite talent there coming out.And then separately after that, you
got guys that some that are alittle more divisive. You know, Russell
(28:29):
Wilson, quarterback of the Broncos.Obviously rough year last year. We'll dive
into that in a second. Andthen Jimmy Garoppolo taking the reins for the
for the Las Vegas Raiders, Soreally gonna be interesting with what they decided
to do with this team as theygo for as this division, excuse me,
as we go forward, and it'sgonna be it's gonna be pretty exciting.
(28:52):
So we'll dive into that. I'mgonna start off with the Raiders out
there in Las Veas. Very uniquesituation by kind of in my opinion,
I think it pretty much across theleague. They are well I'll actually argue
that in a second, but they'reone of the worst teams in this division.
(29:12):
The Derek Carr era ends, Jimmyg One begins. Josh McDaniels,
you know, really needs to showsome sort of improvement if he ever wants
to maintain being a head coach inthis league. His career now seventeen and
twenty eight, he's never finished abovefive hundred. The Raiders were supposed to
be an okay team last year andended up being a complete disaster again with
(29:33):
Derek Carr, you know, sittingout towards the end of the year just
not it was a mess. Itwas an absolute mess out there in Vegas,
and he absolute disaster going into thisyear. I'm not seeing how much
of an improvement. The defense isabysmal, really bad. Josh Jacobs was
a bright spot last year they ledHe led the league in rushing, but
(29:55):
he's currently holding out for a newdeal. We know the whole running back
market situation, and yeah, there'show do I put there is not much
right side here. I think theRaiders are really going to be a disaster.
It's pretty tough. The divisions theywould play this year are gonna be
AFC East and NFC North. AFC'spretty challenging, NFC North not so much
(30:17):
so. A little bit of amixed bag there. But what I will
say, I've never been a JimmyG believer and I'm still not right now.
Again, I think he was successfulin a Kyle Shanahan's system and I
think that's what he did. Buthe did, let me rephrase it,
he did what he needed to do. Like Shanahan, seams were built around
defense and the run, and JimmyG helped leave that. He didn't need
(30:42):
to do anything that difficult. Hewas a game manager and I think it
worked out for him and he didthe job that he was asked to do.
That's not going to be the casehere in Oakland. He's going to
need to do things to help thisteam win and get on the positive side
on offense. I'm not a believerin it. But what I will say
is if Jimmy G finds a wayto get the Raiders above five hundred this
(31:03):
year, I'll buy into the holehe's just a winner. I will buy
into that he's just a winner argumentbecause I just don't see anything really positive
with this Raiders team, and ifhe finds a way to do that,
I will give him the credit thathe deserves. But again, I'm gonna
go under six point five wins forthe Vegas Raiders. Next up Denver,
Broncos. I was I was talkingwith a buddy about this, and I
(31:27):
don't know that. I don't thinkthere's been a worse first season after a
major contract then Russell Wilson in Denver. I mean, holy crap, the
guy. There was jokes going onuntil like the last week of the season.
What's gonna what total is gonna behigher? The number of bathrooms in
(31:48):
his house, which I believe wasfourteen, the biggest mansion he bought in
Denver. I think it's like themost expensive house in the Denver area,
which had fourteen bathrooms, Or thenumber of touchdowns he finished with. He
finished with sixteen. Running joke carriedall season long. It was an absolute
disaster for him. I've said thislast year and I'll say it again.
(32:08):
I fully believe that Russell Wilson's timein Seattle and like him being like being
viewed as an elite quarterback and allthat good stuff was a combination of elite
defense and an incredible run game.Pete Carroll builds his teams around that elite
defense, great run game, andI think Russell Wilson was just essentially Jimmy
(32:32):
Garoppolo again, just talking about Garo. I think Russell Wilson was a glorified
Jimmy Garoppolo. I'll say it again. Is he more talented than Jimmy g
Yes, I do think that,but I don't see him as being that
guy that's the reason this team winsgames. I just don't. And last
year he goes to Denver and reallyproved me right. I never bought into
Russ. I've always thought Russ wasa little bit too high upon everyone's pedestal,
(32:57):
and last year really showed it.Now, hey, we'll see they
got a new coach, Sean Paytoncomes in. Nathaniel Hackett only made it
the one season. Sean Payton actuallycame out this week and said, essentially
blamed last year all on Nathaniel Hackett. I don't fully buy that. Russell
wasn'ts a ten year vet. Youcan't blame it all in the head coach.
You just can't. But we'll seeSean Payton is an elite play call
(33:19):
or elite offensive mind. We've seenthat for years and he comes back to
the league now with the Denver Broncos. They do have an elite defense too.
I gotta say that Denver does havean incredible defense. I think they
can be better than they were lastyear. But I'm not buying into this
thing that Russ is competing with JustinHerbert and Patrick Mahomes. He's on a
different level. He is. Russis an average quarterback at best in my
mind, and those two are elite. We'll see Denver is Denver's win totals
(33:44):
eight point five. I'm going under. I am. I think they're third
in the division. I think thatmatchup with the AFC East is gonna be
a little rough on them. Andyeah, I don't buy into the Russ
bounce back. I think it'll bebetter, but he's not back to what
you got in Seattle. So I'mgoing to go under on the eight point
five for Denver. Next up toSan Diego Chargers. Justin Herbert signs a
(34:05):
massive deal just this past week,solidifying he's the QB for the Bolts going
forward. The offense is absolutely electricHerbert all right, yeah, you heard
me. I think he's a rightaround the top five quarterback. Probably he's
either five or just out. Butthey also have Keenan Allen Austin Eckler,
Mike Williams. Quintin Johnson was afirst round pick out of TCU that I
(34:28):
really like, a really big,good size, wide receiver. They have
a top ten offensive line. Theteam is built to put up a ton
of points. The issue was ondefense. They have two league players,
they have Joey Bosa and Derwin James. Outside of that, the average goes
below average. Honestly, the overalldefense is bottom half in the league.
I think this team is just goingto be a shootout team. It's just,
(34:51):
hey, you know what you're getting. They're going to try to outscore
you. Brandon Staley is a defensiveminded head coach. We'll see what he
can do if he can find away to contain other offenses to give their
to give the Bolts a chance tojust outscore teams. He obviously has not
been He's been very had some veryquestionable decisions. I guess I'll say with
the amount of times he ghost wornon fourth down and some of his time
out calls and different things like that. That being said, I am a
(35:14):
Chargers believer. I think this teamis low key a Super Bowl dark horse,
even though they're in division with theChiefs. I like the talent there.
I think LA really has a decentshot. Give me over nine and
a half wins on the Chargers.That's their line coming into this season,
last up in this division, Chiefs. I'm not gonna spend a ton of
time on Kansas City. You allknow Kansas City. We all know Kansas
(35:37):
City. Patrick Mahomes is the mosttalented QB I've ever seen. I didn't
say the best, did not saythe best, but talent wise, the
guy just does things I can't Ihaven't seen other quarterbacks do. Where he's
thrown it on the run, differentarm angles and still with elite accuracy and
velocity behind it. I haven't seenguys do that. So he's the best
(36:00):
back in the game. There's noreal question about that in my mind.
Extremely dynamic player who's very difficult tostop. Travis Kelsey entering the conversation of
Gray's tight end of all time,he is, I mean another season or
two like this, like we forthe last two decades, we've been blessed
with tight ends. I know TonyGonzalez is absolutely great before this, Antonio
(36:20):
Gates elite, but Gronk and nowKelsey just absolutely tight ends, revolutionizing that
position they have. They have anelite offensive line. The Chiefs are a
top three offensive line corner Pro Footballfocus. They are. On offense,
they're pretty much perfect, even thoughthey don't have those elite weapons on the
(36:40):
outside anymore. You know, theyhave Kdarius Tony list as their number one
wide receiver coming into this year.I fully expect they're going to find a
way to maximize him and maximize theother guys around him. Andy Reid is
really the premier offensive mind in thegame at this point. You have to
say that now is in him tandemwith having Patrick Mahomes, of course,
but it's you can't separate them atthis point. They're both really it could
(37:01):
been a perfect partnership. There's noholes on that side of the ball.
On defense, their middle of thepack to probably slightly above average in my
opinion. Steve Spagnolo's defensive coordinator runsa tight enough ship where he can keep
teams in check. And it's ifyou give Patrick Mahomes a chance in a
game, he's going to win itmore often than not. The Chiefs total
is at eleven and a half thisyear. They're the favorites toWin the super
(37:23):
Bowl. It's six to one.I think it's the over on the Chiefs.
I know some people are like,oh, you know, he gets
super Bowl hangover. They'll they takethem a little bit to wake up their
schedule. Again, not super easyto play in the top schedule, but
they're three toughest games in my opinion, which are the Eagles, the Bills,
and the Bengals. All three ofthem are in arrowhead. I expect
(37:44):
the Chiefs to win two or threeof those games and expect them to take
care of business in the division.Really, you know, maybe they lose
a game to the Chargers. Ithink they're going to beat the Raiders twice,
and they beat the Broncos twice.I think this team is going to
win at least twelve games this year, if not more. Chiefs So there's
class in the NFL in right.The Eagles are right there, and we're
not talking about the Eagles next week. We'll get there. I'm saving the
NFC the East, both East divisionsfor last for a reason. But the
(38:07):
Chiefs, in my opinion, haveto be considered the class of the league.
With that, we'll dive into theNFC West on the other side your
teams in that division, we gotthe Cardinals, Seahawks, forty nine ers,
and Rams this division this year theymatch up with the NFC East and
the AFC North in terms of theirschedule. NFC East obviously tough division.
(38:30):
Last year I had all the teamsabout five hundred pretty late made three teams
made the playoffs. And AFC Northalso not a picnic, but really three
teams, if not all four teamsfighting for playoff berths over there. So
really tough schedule on these guys,and you kind of see it in the
wind totals that we'll go through,where they're definitely a little bit deflated,
which I fully get. It's notas good a division as its AFC counterpart,
(38:52):
but it is certainly industrict and interesting. Excuse me, We'll start off
with what I consider the dumpster fireDivision, that is the Arizona Cardinals as
a franchise. Arizona's in trouble fora little bit. I mean they're locked
in with Kyler Murray, locked infor the foreseeable future. He's gonna be
injured for most of, if notall, of this season. It's a
(39:14):
message just when that contract got signed, even when they had, you know,
the stupid game film clause like itwas a disaster when it was happening.
It was embarrassing for Murray, itwas embarrassing for the Cardinals, and
they both still went through and lockedin. And here we are. It's
a mess. It's an absolute mess. Projected to be one of the worst
teams in the NFL. DeAndre Hopkinsno longer there, signed a deal in
(39:34):
Tennessee. The only other weapons onoffense. He got James Connor, decent
running back Marcus Brown. The speedsare on the outside. Colt McCoy is
going to be the quarterback. Itseems like he's the favorite, at least
going into the year. Loved himin college Cole but that's that's over a
decade ago. At this point.I just don't see him really being able
to do that much. Overall.The defense isn't any good either. Jonathan
(39:59):
Gannon coming in his head. Coach. You know, we don't need to
talk about Jonathan Gannon anymore here inPhilly, at least in my opinion.
I just let the do whatever you'regonna do out there. I'm not gonna
wish him success, but I'm justnot gonna think about him that much.
That being said, he's a rookiehead coach with an absolute garbage roster.
I don't think it's going to gowell. Schedule is really tough. I
think they're the lowest win total thatI've seen so far at four and a
(40:21):
half. I'm going under. Ithink it's that low for a reason.
I think the Cardinals are going tobe an absolute disaster jumping over to the
LA Rams two years removed from theSuper Bowl, yet they're coming in only
projected to win. Their total issitting at six and a half wins.
Matthew Stafford should be back, whichI think is a large upside compared to
last year where you did have Staffordfor some of the season, but he
(40:43):
was clearly playing hurt, and thenthey had other guys come in to finish
it off, including Baker Mayfield forthe second half of the season. You
also lost Cooper Cup for that secondhalf of the season. The defense is
aging, but they still have sometop talent. You got Jalen Ramsey and
Aaron Donald back there, so twoA League players and some other good pieces.
Sean mcvayh is an elite coach inmy mind. On the offense,
especially on the offensive side of theball. I don't think there's many better
(41:05):
than him out there. I expectthe Rams to bounce back. If I
get a healthy Matthew Stafford and ahealthy Cooper Cup, I think you can
make that offense scary. I reallydo. I can buy into the Rams
being legit again. Now. Theschedule is gonna be tough again. This
is this division, the NFC Westis going to have lower win totals this
year, like because just because ofthe other divisions they're going up against.
(41:25):
But I fully believe that the Ramswill be fighting in December for a playoff
spot. I buy in that thisteam is going to have some battles and
win more games than people are realizing. Six and a half wins is a
very low number. To me,I am going to go way over that.
It's one of my favorite plays,probably my favorite play of the day.
Here as I'm going through these oversix and a half wins, the
(41:47):
Rams seems like easy money to me, So I'm going to jump on that
one. And I really buy inthat Matthew Stafford Cooper Cup combination with Sean
McVeagh is still on the lead offensivemind is going to win. This team
a lot of games that people arenot giving them credit for, and they
could win the division. I thinkit was actually, let me get that
number for you real quick, orthe Rams to win that division. The
(42:07):
Rams to win the NFC West areten to one. I like that play.
I think that's a very very sneakygood play there. So I would
I'm definitely gonna be throwing throwing somedollar bills on that one next time to
go to San France. So similarlythe way I was talking about the Chiefs
earlier, we all know San Francisco. We all know the moaning and whining
(42:29):
after the NFC title game where ohwe good we didn't get hurt. We
would No, I'm not gonna lookthey're honestly, I won't know what.
Actually, I will say this,it's a bad like culture to be that
focused on the past. It reallyis. I can't see anyway how it's
because it's coming from the players andthe coaches. Look, fan bases,
I get it. Look I stillhear. Look, you'll hear Eagles fans
(42:51):
talking about the sad Father. LikeI it's fan bases are going to do
that. Forty nine are like theactual forty nine are players after that game,
and even still more recently where youhave like Deebo Samuel walking off sets
of interviews or just hanging up phoneslike it's a bad culture there. It
just it doesn't see. I smellsomething bad coming up at San Franciscos here,
And I know a lot of peopleare high on them. Most people
(43:13):
see them as the main threat inthe NFC of the Eagles, I would
I would say Dallas. I thinkDallas is a little more of a threat,
and the main reason for that there'sa huge issue quarterback. I think
brock Purty has the potential to bea legit starter in this league. I'm
not not elite, I don't.I don't think he has the ability to
be an elite guy. But Ithink you meet a starter. That being
said, he's coming off in aserious injury and now coordinators have film on
(43:36):
him like he's not just gonna wineight straight or whatever the hell he did
last year Again, where no onereally prepped for brock Purty, it was
kind of a here we go.And secondly, like look, I get
Kyle Shanahan's system is effective on offense, it absolutely is, But Shanahan's track
record as a head coach is notoverall great. Let's pull up these stats
here on Kyle Shanahan coaching stats andit's kind of usually been a year on,
(44:00):
year off type thing. So yeah, let's let's read through. So
Kyle Shanahan has been now head coachthe forty nine ers for six seasons.
First couple of seasons six and y'allstreet to reach here, six and ten,
four and twelve, thirteen and three, six and ten, ten and
seven, thirteen and four. It'sup and down, up and down.
(44:22):
I feel like we're due for adown. Like I could be wrong on
this, and maybe I am.You know, I'll have some people saying,
oh, you're just an Eagles homeand I'm not. Again, I
think the Eagles again. We'll goover the Eagles next week. I am
probably lower on the Eagles than mostare this year, and just in terms
of what I think their wind totalwill be at the end, I think
they're still the best team in theNFC, but in their win totals probably
(44:44):
going to be lower than what peopleexpect. That being said, today we're
focused on the NFC West for theforty nine Ers. They're total sitting at
ten and a half. I thinkit's I think it's an under, I
really do. I think this scheduleis going to really beat them up.
And I know they beat people up, but I don't know. I am
not buying in this is gonna begreat defense. This is still an elite
defense. I get it Christian McCaffrey, great offensive weapons with him, Debo
(45:06):
and George Kittle, but without aquarterback that I can fully buy into.
I just don't buy into this teamyet. I just don't or not I
shouldn't say yet. I don't buyinto this team's going to be the elite.
I just don't give me the underten and a half for San Francisco,
which leads us lastly with Seattle.Seattle's win total sitting at nine and
a half, and guys, I'mgonna say it up front, I'm high
(45:28):
on Seattle, down on San francbut I'm high on Seattle. I buy
into the Geno Smith turnaround being legitand carrying on another season. I'm not
saying he's gonna be like that.Like there was a Geno MVP talk last
year that's not gonna happen. Andeven that was, you know, tongue
in cheek a little bit last season, but I think he's a legitimately good
quarterback. I think he's a Ithink he will be a top half of
(45:50):
the league quarterback by the when we'retalking this time in January, which is
all that you need out there inSan Franciso or sorry, in Seattle.
With these weapons, he's got DKMetcalf, Tyler Lockett, and Kenneth Walker
coming back from last year, allvery very solid. DK's and elite one
receiver. Lockett's one of the besttwo receivers in the league, and Kenneth
Walker was a fantastic rookie running backand just absolutely elite. And then they
(46:15):
picked up Jackson Smith and Jigben ZachScharbone in the draft this year in the
first and second round. Smith andJigben to me, was the best offensive
player, well, let me rephrasethat, best wide receiver, I guess
I'll say coming into the draft,and best no, I'll say best skill
position offensive player coming into the draft. I really think that he is an
(46:36):
elite player, and honestly, Ithink I know what. I think the
only offensive player I'd have in frontof him is probably Bryce Young. I
think that high of Jackson Smith andJimbo. I think he is absolutely going
to kill it in the league.And then there's too many guys to cover.
I really do. I think teamsare gonna have trouble covering Seattle this
year. The one hole is theoffensive line. The offensive line's bad.
There's no way around that. Bottomfive offensive line in my opinion, not
(47:00):
not great. Hey, every teamas their holes. We'll see if Seattle
can come up with that. ButI trust Pete Carroll to be able to
build up his defense to support this, to be able to just balance out
with this offense where you're gonna putup points. You have too many weapons
not to put up points. It'snow the question of can the defenses hold
the other teams in check? AndI trust Pete cow to figure that out.
(47:20):
I'm gonna go over nine and ahalf wins on Seattle I want.
I'm gonna take Seattle to win theWest at plus two hundred. I also
throw a ticket on the Rams atten to one, but take on the
Seahawks to win the division at plustwo hundred, and I'm gonna take one
ticket on them at thirteen to winthe NFC and thirty to one to win
the Super Bowl. I'll say ithere, I'll say it again, like
I don't think Seattle lost anything whenthey lost Trussell Wilson, and I think
(47:43):
this team is going to build offwhat they did last year when they made
a supply surprise playoff from I reallythink Seattle is going to surprise a ton
of people this year. And withthat, I'll get off my Seattle ram.
We're running out of time, sothanks everyone for tuning in. We'll
be back next week do the NFCEast and AFC East. Will do both
Eastern NFL divisions, as well aswhatever topics hit us throughout the week that
(48:07):
we need to talk about. Asalways, everyone stay tuned to the Gambler
Daily, Ticket Line Change, Divide, Live Baseball Brunch. So many,
so many great shows. I knowI missed several of them. I'm sure
I'll make sure you get them.Get them in later. But you guys
know this is the place to befor football season. It's coming up fast.
Be here. I'll talk to yousoon. Talk later.
For national winners. From a localperspective, you're in the right place.
It's balls, bats and bets withTim o'keee right here on the Gambler.
Another Friday and it's time for balls, bats and bets. Welcome in everybody,
thanks for tuning in. It's veryvery interesting time going on. We
(00:20):
got NFL training camp going, footballis in full swing. I think I
saw what is it? I thinkthis weekend coming up. This weekend is
the last weekend without some form offootball. Now grand I know it's gonna
be preseason, but hey, that'sthat's a huge thing, right last week
go without any form of football untilFebruary, so that's a beautiful thing.
(00:40):
We got the Phillies, you know, being the Phillies. Baseballs in full
swing, MLB trade deadline, gotso much going on around the round,
sports in general, with football comingup, baseball going in full swing,
NBA rumor mails, all the goodstuff, and we're going to dive right
into it. Let's art off withMLB and the Phillies. Again. It's
(01:04):
on a good note right now,but it's just up and down, up
and down. After the All Starbreaking, you know, you take three
or fourth from the Padres. Thenyou'll lose back to back series against the
Brewers and the Guardians, and thenyou take two or three from the second
best team in baseball record wise.The Baltimore Orioles absolutely up and down kind
of run. And is it frustratingto be up and down? Yet it
(01:26):
is? It's absolutely frustrating. Buthey, I am optimistic about the direction
that this team is heading at themoment because really, when I look at
the state of the National League,I see the Phillies as being in a
very advantageous position. I've said thisfor a couple of weeks now. I
think there's two teams that are clearlyabove the Phillies, that is the Braves
(01:49):
and the Dodgers. And after that, I think I have the Phillies is
the next best team. I thinkthe Phillies are the third best team in
the NL, which is more thanI could say, you know, a
couple of weeks back about I guessmore that I could say a couple of
weeks back, but also more Icould say last year, right go at
this point in the season, andobviously we know how last year ended,
where we won the National League Pennant. So even though it's been up and
(02:12):
down I and it's been frustrating.That's the word for me. It's been
frustrating. I still I'm optimistic aboutwhere this teams had. I like the
way to build up is. Iknow a lot of people are worried about
the lineup, and rightfully so.It's underproduced, all right, Trey Turner,
it's not. I just don't thinkit's gonna happen this year. It's
frustrating his Helle. I think it'sthat, hey, guys moved to a
new city. Get that build up, big contract. It takes a year.
(02:34):
We saw the Castianos, We've seenit across the league many times.
I think it just takes a year, and it's frustrating, but I think
that's is where we're at. Idon't expect that much at a tray for
the rest of the year. Imean, better than what we're getting.
I think he finishes as a twosixty hitter. I think right now he's
like two forty eight. So we'llbump it up a little bit, hopefully
a little more pop, maybe sometimely hitting. But I just don't expect
(02:55):
it to be this year. Youneed guys like j. T. Castianis
has dipped a little bit since theAll Star Game, so need him to
pick it back up. And youknow, Alec Bom, Bryce Harper,
all these guys that we expect tobe decent hitters, we need them to
pick it up. But I fullybuy in they're going to be able to.
I really do. I think overallthis team is going to be in
(03:15):
a pretty good position, especially sincewhen I look at where we are for
the Wildcard Race. You know,right now, I believe let me get
that latest standings. I believe wewere second in the NL Wildcard Race at
the moment, hold please one,two, three, Jeopardy music playing,
Come on here we go? Yes, second place right now in the walker
tie with the Reds. Really fora second, that second slot half a
(03:38):
game back on the Giants. I'mjust not scared of the teams around us.
I'm really not. And one it'sbecause like the capabilities of the teams
themselves, when I look at themon paper, the Phillies are more talented
than Giants. They're more talented thanthe Reds, more talented in the Marlin,
it's more talent than the Diamondbacks.They just are like on paper,
You're not going to find a teamthat is out of those five that's better
(03:59):
than the Phillies. You're just notnow. Granted, on paper doesn't always
come to fruition. That's why youhave to keep on it and keep trying.
But another thing the Phillies have intheir favor is they got an easy
schedule for the rest of the waycompared to the competition, they have an
easy schedule. Phillies have the seventheasiest schedule left in Major League Baseball,
which is best in our division.Granted we're not catching Atlanta, but best
(04:20):
in our division, and it's thebest among all those wild car contenders are
just named. The only team that'sa wild card contender that's better is the
Brewers. Now, the Brewers rightnow tendually leading in the Central, but
you know Cincinnati is just like agame and a half behind them. So
you want to count the Brewers andthe Races, Well, find the Brewers
that have the fifth easiest schedule,so right around the same as the Phillies.
(04:41):
Not a drastic difference. But thenwhen I look at the other teams,
how about the Marlins third hardest scheduleleft, third hardest schedule left.
That's a huge difference in the Phillies. We're having the seventh easiest. That's
not easy. And now the Marlinsare in. They are buyers. Made
that trade for David Robertson last night, which is interesting. You know,
hey, they're buying in, They'regetting a bullpenpiece. David Robertson seems to
(05:04):
be on the move every other youknow, season, if not every season,
actually, I guess it's more morelike it in every couple of months.
I guess it's probably fair to sayhe's had a great year up up
in New York for the Mets,and that's kind of the signal I guess
to me that the Mets are probablysaying, you know what, we're accepting
it's not this year. Which isinteresting is Robertson has been one of their
best relievers, and their bullpen hasbeen weak overall, but Robertson has been
(05:27):
one of the bright spots. Sothey're selling off. He's an older arm
I get it, I get I'mjust surprised they're going to throw in that
towel. Giants a little bit betterof a team in my opinion in the
Marlins, just a little bit,or at least do I count the Moore's
threat the Giants had the fifth heartestschedule in Major League Baseball. Fifth artist
a lot of games left with theDodgers. These my games of the Diamondbacks,
like, they have some tough gamesleft. So it's how do I
(05:54):
put this? How do you putthis? Lately? One, the Phillies
are already better on paper, atleast in my opinion. Everyone you can
disagree. If you're a diehard Giantsbeliever out there, fine, you can
tweet at me, tell me orwhat is it now? Exit me?
Oh man, they can't. Theyare they are doing too much with that
platform. But um, yeah,you know, tell me what you gotta
do. But yeah, as Ilook through this, the Giants have six
(06:15):
left with Atlanta, three with Tampa, seven with the Dodgers. They it's
not easy. It's just not easy. And then the Phillies, you know,
the Phillies, they're toughest games left. Phillies also do have seven with
Atlanta. But then it's you know, Blue Jays is their next toughest team
they play the rest of the way. At least in terms of win percentage.
That's not too bad. That's justnot that bad. When I make
(06:39):
that comparison to teams like San Franciscoh d Backs and Reds. They're middle
of the pack schedules, toughness,d Backs at thirteen, Reds at seventeen,
you know, middle of the pack, but both harder than the Phillies.
For those thinking, hey, youknow, Mets and Padres might not
be done. Mets are seven gamesout of the last wildcard slot right now,
Padres six and a half. Uh. The Mets have the seventh hardest
(07:00):
schedule remaining seven against Atlanta and sevenagainst the Phillies, which you know,
you could view as an upside,but they that's not easy. And then
the Padres are middle of the pack. They're at fourteen. So Padres schedule,
yeah, not that, not thatthat bad um got a lot of
games off with the Rockies on theirside, another series with Oakland, so
I get that. A lot ofgames with Saint Louis two. Actually,
(07:21):
who is surprising. It has stillbeen a weak squad so far this year,
but it's all lining up. I'mstruggling to see how the Phillies are
not in the playoffs. I reallyam at this point. Folks. It's
just it doesn't it doesn't seem feasibleto me, Like I I know,
I know they're like literally half agame up on it or a game up
(07:42):
right now. I just really wouldbe shocked to this team doesn't make the
playoffs. I know the line,I get the line of concerns. I
get things, and we're gonna talkabout what we can add a trade deadline
coming up very brush shortly. ButI just don't have that concerns. I
think we're gonna be in the playoffs. They're gonna be the top wildcard seed.
I really do. I would besurprised if we're not going over the
amor the league side of things.We know there's it's kind of a it's
like a two division race over there. Really with the AL Central. You
(08:07):
know, there's one team that's gonnamake from the Central. It'll be the
probably the Twins. That looks like, in my opinion, the excutally not
the Indians. The Guardians are alsoright there. I can watch. I
can't even see Detroit sneaking up there. I think that divisions is so weak.
But besides that, one team's comingout of the Central, and then
it's an incredibly strong AL East anda pretty strong AL West. With the
AL East, the Orioles sit atop of sixty two and forty, followed
(08:33):
by the Rays one and a halfgames back, Blue Jay's five and a
half games back, Red Sox sevengames back, and the Yankees eight games
back. That's for the division.But the Yankees were in last place,
only two and a half games outof the final wildcard spot. So it
is really really good contention up thereat the top of the AL East.
(08:54):
I'll call out one thing that I'msurprised I'm gonna I'm surprised me in this
case. But you know, therace start it off the season. I
think of what was at thirteen andnow fourteen. I think it was thirteen
and now, So you're thirteen andnow they are now as we are talking
today, sitting at what is thatsixty two and forty three. So if
I take off that thirteen now,and of course it counts, they're only
(09:16):
six games above five hundred. Theyhave the second toughest schedule remaining in Major
League Baseball, with a four gameslump against Baltimore, three against Houston,
six against the Blue Jays. Guys, I think Tampa's still gonna make the
playoffs, but they gotta watch out. They really do. I they've been
(09:39):
faltering a little bit. They reallyhave and tam I like the raise.
I love rooting for the small marketteam, but they have absolutely been faltering.
I you gotta watch it how tohear them, because they don't have
that many easy games left. Theyhave nine games total against Colorado, Saint
Louis, and Detroit. There wasn'tonly easy games left. That's it.
Those are the only easy games theyhave left in Detroit's not terribly so.
(10:01):
Now you got these other teams thatyou've got a lot of series against tough
opponents. Tampa's one of the bestteams in the league. I do fully
believe they'll make the playoffs, butyou know the value might be there to
take a little hedge on maybe theydon't. I think this AL wildcards gonna
be really interesting. I just talkedabout the AL East. Then you got
the West where we got the Angels, the Astros, and the Mariners and
(10:24):
the Rangers. The Rangers are winningthe division, the other three are right
now fighting for the wildcards slots.And it's really really tight there. It
just is so all those there's seventeams right now fighting for wildcards. Well,
I guess you want to call tenteams I would say in the AL
that I could really easily see makingthe playoffs, maybe even eleven on.
It's because I have to count theGuardians because they could catch the Twins.
(10:46):
So there's eleven teams I could seefighting for six slots in the AL,
which is a really crowded field.The Angels have been one of the more
interesting ones. Obviously, we'll startI guess we'll just take this time.
We'll dive into our trade deadline talk. The Angels saying, hey, Showhey's
not going anywhere. He is stayingin La I do believe they shopped around
and see where they could get,which if you're the Angels, you have
(11:09):
to it's smart. You have tofind out what is out there on the
market. They didn't seem to begetting what they were looking for. So
he is staying put. And actuallythe Angels become buyers. They go out
and really make one of the firstbig moves and they go get Lucas Giolito
and Ronaldo Lopez another a good arm. Giolito is a guy I do buy
in, and he is. He'sa solid pitcher. He's gonna be around
(11:31):
for a long time. I don'tknow, He's not gonna be elite,
like we once kind of thought.But I think he is a very just
solid two three guy in that rotation. Ronaldo Lopez, another decent arm has
shown flashes and the Angels are buyersget like it's they have the six hardest
schedule left. But three games out. Had a great game on Tuesday or
sorry Wednesday, great games, Ishould say, sweeping Detroit and a doubleheader,
(11:54):
man, I have to give Imean, look, we all know
what showhy does this incredible day inand day out, one of a double
header, complete game, shutout orsorry it's a shutout, one run I
think it was a shutout. Ithink it was a complete game shutout.
And then second game hits two homeruns. All right, you can't make
(12:15):
this stuff out. I can't doa make a video game character that does
this. I can't like. Thisguy is absolutely incredible. I believe it
said second time it's ever been donein baseball history. For someone to do
that in the same day, justabsolutely incredible elite player. I was shocked
when I saw him, Like,can you imagine pitch like your picture?
There's a complete game where he wasalso hitting in game one and then stills
(12:35):
like I know what, I'm gonnago out and hitting Game two. He's
not ice in the arm. Nowhe's swinging, and he's dropping two over
the fence. Absolutely incredible. Againthat I won't go on a Ben Verlander
show. Hey, rant right now. So I'll take a twist back other
teams that I expect to make moves. I think Baltimore's prime in a prime
spot to make a move. Ireally do. They have so much young
(12:56):
talent and so many good prospects.Now am I expecting to give up guys
like Jackson Holiday, you know,number one pick from a couple years back.
Now, I'm not expecting that.But what I am expecting is some
of those, like you know,top hundred guys, maybe towards the middle
low part, make a move.Go get an extra arm, go get
an extra bat. Although their batsare really solid, I mean I think
(13:18):
they could use the third basement.I was trying to see, like low
key, if they could be aspot for Ronado. I think it's a
good fit from a trade perspective,but it sounds like Arnado with that no
trade clause, has a one spotin mind. I'll dive into that in
another second, but I think Baltimoreisn't a prime spot to make a move.
I also think Tampa. Tampa alsohas a lot of good young talent,
and I know those are usually nothuge spending organizations, so they like
(13:39):
to hold on to that young talent. I get it, But when you
have an opportunity like that, Ithink we do have to consider taking advantage
of the opportunity you're in where youare in prime position to compete for a
World Series. And I think theyboth are going to make some moves coming
up, especially with all the youngtalent they have, they can outbid most
(14:00):
anybody. They are two of thetop farm organizations in all of baseball.
I fully explained going to make amove going over to the Phillies. What
do we see from the Phillies potentiallydoing. I think Dombrowski is going to
make a move. It's it's whathe does. He's aggressive and I like
it, and I think it's agood spot. I just told you I
think the Phillies are a playoff team. Yes, they're gonna be a wildcard
team. You're not catching the Braves, but in today's baseball, you can
(14:24):
we saw it last year. You'vegot to get an invite to the dance
and then you can make anything happen. Do I think it's going to be
a major, major move. Probablynot. I think it's going to You're
either going to get a corner outfielder, hopefully right handed back with a little
pop, or a starting pitcher.The guys that I keep hearing the most,
I also do think are the mostlikely than Cody Bellinger playing for the
(14:46):
Cubs this year. Guy can playall three outfield spots. Um. Yeah,
I believe he has left handed sothat's not super ideal. We have
a lot of lefties, but youknow, you can make it work.
He's having a bounce back here.Former MVP with the Dodgers, Uh had
a rough end of his time.I'm in LA for the last two seasons
before this, but now he's hada nice bounce back in Chicago. It's
a one year plus deal. There'sa mutual option. He's had a good
(15:07):
enough season he's going to opt out. So this is really a pure rental.
I think he's the most likely guythat ends up in a filly uniform.
EDWARDO Rodriguez picture for the Tigers,who's having a very very solid season,
is another name that I see comingup has some Dombrowski ties, and
I don't think he would be thatmuch because he's also kind of a pure
rental He does his contract can canrun for another couple of years, but
(15:30):
it's all on a option, andhe's having a good year. He's gonna
opt out, He's gonna want toget paid. So I think this is
another pure rental type piece. SoI don't think they're super expensive cost I
really don't Detroit. It's not gonnamake like doubtful Detroit makes the playoffs,
doubtful Chicago makes the playoffs. Ithink they are still both going to be
sellers. Even though I think they'reboth within tank like six and a half
eight seven games of a playoff spot. I imagine they're both still both going
(15:54):
to be sellers. Realizing this isnot their year. I think that though
either of those two guys helps thePhillies make a case to be a better
contenter for the World Series, I'mnot I'm starting to fall off the idea
that Hey Goldschmidt or Arronado is goingto find their way to Philly. I
just don't really see that happening.Saint louis the only one I've been hearing
(16:15):
is Arronado to the Dodgers. I'veseen a little bit around now and surprise,
there's not more action around Goldschmidt.I haven't seen much, but Arnado
seems to will potentially want to goto La Rumor has his agents said that's
the only team he would wave hisno trade clause for, and it sounds
that the Dodgers really are interested ingetting him in Dodger Blue. The other
(16:37):
team I would say to watch assellers, and actually I'm run up on
time, so we'll take a quickbreak in a second. The other team
I see as potential sellers the Padreswith Juan Soto, Blake Snell, Josh
Hayter. I'll start with Hayter andSnell. Hayter and Snell our rentals at
this point. They're both their contractsare up at the end of the year.
If the Padres really don't think theycan do it, they would be
the first two to go. Inmy opinion, I would then really focus
(17:00):
on Juan Soto. If I'm thePodres, I'm not trading him. I
think the Podres are still built towin. I know it hasn't gone well
this year, but I would stillhold him. That being said, they
saw the package that they got forthey gave up for him last year.
You could probably get not all thatback because now it's another less year of
control, but you could still geta huge package for Juan Soto. I
(17:22):
don't think they're gonna move it.I think the Podgres are gonna try to
keep contending. But we will see. If they sell one piece, it
could be a domino effect. Andyou see several guys leaving San Diego.
All right, well, we're gonnatake a quick break, get back to
your right after this, we'll diveback. Give us couple minutes on Fox
Sports the Gambling Gambling phillis home forall things sports gambling. You know,
(17:45):
the only thing that's dangerous about runningover in your first segment is that you
then have to slice down your secondsegments. So we're a little bit of
rapid fire here. Well on balls, bets and bets, welcome back.
Yeah, we're gonna do some rapidfire. There's a couple of topics going
around sports world that I really wantedto hit on the first one, that's
(18:06):
probably the biggest one for this segment. I want to dive into the running
back situation in the NFL, butthe markets and you know, running backs
getting together trying to figure out thevalue because clearly the position has become devalued
over the last ten years, fifteenyears, twenty years. It's been,
you know, ever since the daysof the seventies and eighties where it was
(18:27):
you know, run first league andit started to become more pass heavy.
I feel like the running back positionshas been on a steady decline, but
it seriously has, at least interms of dollars, fallen off a cliff
in the past few years. It'sjust by past few let's call it five
to ten where and again I thinkyou see this way. A lot of
(18:49):
NFL teams see it as a positionthere you can just plug and play guys
that there's not a significant variance betweenthe top tier, or there's a there's
not a significant variance between like aboveaverage and average. Like it's very much
you got a couple top tier guysand then everyone else is kind of this
grouped together, and a lot ofguys are seen as plug and play um
(19:11):
as well as Look, it's beenviewed as a position where players break down
quicker, so it's scarier to givebig contracts, and how do I put
it? I understand both sides ofit. Look, if you're a running
back, you know, you comeout of the you come out of college,
you're a draft pick. You're lockedup with a team for three to
four years, or maybe it's fourto five years. It's gonna four to
(19:32):
five years, depending on how longyou're in, how long your contract is,
what rout and you're drafted in,so you're in the draft pick,
you're making again, this on thisis all in the scale of things.
Right, you're an NFL player,you're making good money in terms of your
average person. But for the NFLstandards, rookie contracts are the cheap contract.
Right, That's where teams, teamsget the most value out of player
(19:53):
because it's hey, yeah they're ontheir rookie contract, don't make a ton
um. The issue that that thenleads to running backs is by the time
most of their their rookie contracts aredone, a lot of them are towards
the end. It's just the case. We've seen history with it where running
backs don't last nearly the same asother positions. Look, we saw Tom
(20:15):
Brady playing at forty four forty fivelast year, You're never gonna see a
running back playing at forty five again. I don't think it's I don't know
if it's ever happened, but you'renot ever going to see it to get
You're never going to see it goingforward in the NFL. It's just you
get two beat up at the position. It's just not possible, it's not
feasible. It's how do I putYou're just taking hits after hit after hit,
(20:36):
and the body's not meant to doit for that long. So then
if you're an NFL owner, aGM when you're evaluating, hey, how
do I put out the best team? Yeah, investing in running backs has
been proven to not work. Itjust hasn't. Look at the look let's
look at the last ten years andelite running back contracts. All right,
how about Todd Gurley. Todd Gurleywas the first one, you know back
(20:57):
in was that twenty seventeen eighteen.He was great, absolute elite. The
Rams then invested in him heavily andhe was just not the same. After
that first contract, it started fallingapart, breaking down, and he was
out of the league I think beforethirty. Ezekiel Elliott. Do you think
Dallas would do that deal? Again, No, I wouldn't, and I
(21:18):
wouldn't want them too if I wastheir fan. It's a problem like there's
this They running backs break down andby the time it's time to pay them,
there's just not a not enough meatleft on the bone. There's just
not there's not the values not there. It's ends up being a bad decision
if you're trying to win a SuperBowl. Not saying it's every time.
Look, Christian McCaffrey still a solidplayer after he got paid. But again,
(21:44):
this is the other issue. Youdon't build a team around the running
back anymore. Look, he wastheir best player in Carolina. Carolina was
going nowhere. It's a combination ofthe first two things I mentioned, where
a lot of teams see it asplug and play, but there's not that
big of variance between the top endand the middle end. Eyes as well
as the you know, they justdon't last as long running backs breakdown.
But then after that you still underthe problem of teams don't build their team
(22:08):
around running backs anymore. The onlyteam that's had some success in the last
five years that I see is beingbuilt around the running back is Tennessee.
Tennessee's been built around Derrick Henry andthey've made the playoffs several times. They've
been a decent team. They worldthe number one seed one year. Like
Tennessee is a good team. Theystill number won a Super Bowl, so
they never got to the ultimate goal. But they've been solid. And other
(22:33):
teams are where they have good runningbacks. But it's it's really quarterback first.
You know. I can look atthe San Diego Chargers or sorry,
Los Angeles Chargers. Austin Eckler,great running back, Justin Herbert's the most
important player in the team. Yes, you look at other team. Let's
see who's another great right, ChristianMcCaffrey now in San franz probably their best
(22:55):
offensive weapon. They don't have areal big quarterback, but we'll see how
that goes again. I you're gonnahear it coming up. We're under the
NFC West. I end up havingquestions about San Francisco. I think I'm
only too because of the quarterback situation. It's not anything kind on Christian McCaffrey,
but this league's just driven my quarterback, not running back anymore. So
that's the problem from the if I'man owner, or that's called me a
GM, not even owner. IfI'm the GM, I have a salary
(23:18):
cab with a fixed amount of dollarsI can spend. It's proven time and
time again investing in running backs toback. Call it just is. And
I get the frustration from the runningbacks in that where their prime years are
when they're on the rookie contract,that's when they're most valuable. But the
problem is the way that draft setup. Now, look when you get
to the negotiation table where you getthe CBA's up, and then you get
(23:41):
to the yeah, the CBA expiresPlayers Association versus the NFL that negotiation,
maybe they try maybe the players whodidn't try something there try to say,
hey, one less year on runningback is side of the draft or something
along those lines. I think that'sthe only way you could try to address
it. I don't know if ownerswould go for that, but maybe they
would. And even then, evenif they do it, I don't think
(24:03):
this is gonna overall solve the problems. I mean, the fact of the
matter is the average running back salarythis year is less than the average kicker.
Now there's multiple that's not running backstarters. I think that is where
that stat's deceiving. Starting running backshave a much higher salary than kickers.
But if I'm counting these second andthird string running backs, yeah, guess
what kickers are out there every singlegame. Second and third string running backs,
I mean they get on the fieldsome, but not a ton.
(24:26):
Especially it depends on the offense.If you have a workhorse back, you're
not getting out there that much.It is a conundrum. I get the
frustration on boat side, well,I get the frustration from the running back
side for the league. For theleague it's working because it's hey, you
know they've evaluated it, they've seeneach team's trying to win a championship,
right. I don't think there's anycollusion or anything going on where, oh,
(24:47):
they're trying to devalue the running backposition across the board, like just
to save money. I don't thinkthat's the case. What it is is
that's proven over time that running backsare replaceable and that they break down.
I know I'm harp on this spoints, but it's very interesting to see
what's gonna happen going forward. Iknow we had that all running backs meeting
a couple of weeks ago, Likeyou know, Derrick Henry, say Quan,
(25:08):
Austin Ekeler, all those guys gottogether. I don't know what they
can do. I really don't.I guess you can try holdouts. I'm
seeing that with Josh Jacobs. Idon't know, especially if I'm the Raiders.
Why am I going to pay itcommit to a running back a long
term That's just not going to happen. It's just not I don't know what
Josh Jacobs expects to get out ofsa Quan did his hold out and got
(25:29):
like I guess, like a couplehundred thousand dollars more, which that good
for him. Get your m getas much as you can, but it's
not it's not the same. It'sjust not the same. It's it's not
any long term deal. And saQuan's probably gonna get franchised again next year
if he produces, and that's justnature of the beast. But hey,
in that case, he would maketwenty two million dollars, So I'm not
feeling too bad for him. AllRight, we'll get we'll get off that.
(25:51):
But I am curious to see nextoffseason when this CBA comes up.
What happens there, because that isgoing to be one of the big topics
because running backs, running backs,it's been a it's been a hot issue.
Now we've hit that boiling point,it seems like the other item I
wanted to call out Colorado football,Deon Sanders new program going to the Big
Twelve after this year. That tome, while Colorado is not a powerhouse
(26:17):
in football by any stretch at leastyet, we'll see what coach Prime can
do out there. What I'll sayis they I think it's I think that
moved with Colorado. That's a signof the Pac Twelves, the one that's
gonna be left out. They're theone's gonna be left out of the coal.
We knew the Power of five conferencestructure wasn't gonna last forever, and
to me, it's reading like thisis the first sign the Pac Twelves,
(26:37):
the Domino, the Pac Twelves,and one's gonna fall. I only the
Big twelve in a sec after that, we'll see if four can survive.
I think I think long term,you know, we're talking ten years from
now. I think it's three.I think it's big ten sec. And
then one of these other two that'sa big win for the Big twelve getting
Colorado, which is gonna get alot of eyes just by Dion being there.
We'll see success wise, but Ithink the fact that they are leaving
(27:00):
the PAC twelve for the Big twelveis signaling, Hey, that's the Pac
twelves and some serious, serious trouble. All right, we're gonna take another
quick break. We're gonna go throughthe West divisions in the NFL. When
we get back after this really exciteda lot of good storylines there will break
down and we'll be back on FoxSports. Gambler right after this spreads totals
(27:22):
and all the prop that's in between. It's the Gambler, all right,
let's get back into it. Thelast couple of weeks we've done NFL division
previews. We've already knocked out boththe AFC and NFC North and South.
Now it's time to go out westwhere we're gonna start off looking at the
(27:45):
AFC West, which, as weknow, a pretty loaded division. When
you get out there, your team'sthere, Chiefs, Chargers, Raiders,
Broncos. Really interesting division in myopinion, with some elite quarterback play.
We know Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbertboth you know, mahomes the top Herbert
(28:07):
arguably, like, in my opinion, I think Justin Herbert will be if
I was drafting quarterbacks today, youknow, put everybody in the pool who
I want to start my team with. I think Herbert's right around number five,
So elite talent there coming out.And then separately after that, you
got guys that some that are alittle more divisive. You know, Russell
(28:29):
Wilson, quarterback of the Broncos.Obviously rough year last year. We'll dive
into that in a second. Andthen Jimmy Garoppolo taking the reins for the
for the Las Vegas Raiders, Soreally gonna be interesting with what they decided
to do with this team as theygo for as this division, excuse me,
as we go forward, and it'sgonna be it's gonna be pretty exciting.
(28:52):
So we'll dive into that. I'mgonna start off with the Raiders out
there in Las Veas. Very uniquesituation by kind of in my opinion,
I think it pretty much across theleague. They are well I'll actually argue
that in a second, but they'reone of the worst teams in this division.
(29:12):
The Derek Carr era ends, Jimmyg One begins. Josh McDaniels,
you know, really needs to showsome sort of improvement if he ever wants
to maintain being a head coach inthis league. His career now seventeen and
twenty eight, he's never finished abovefive hundred. The Raiders were supposed to
be an okay team last year andended up being a complete disaster again with
(29:33):
Derek Carr, you know, sittingout towards the end of the year just
not it was a mess. Itwas an absolute mess out there in Vegas,
and he absolute disaster going into thisyear. I'm not seeing how much
of an improvement. The defense isabysmal, really bad. Josh Jacobs was
a bright spot last year they ledHe led the league in rushing, but
(29:55):
he's currently holding out for a newdeal. We know the whole running back
market situation, and yeah, there'show do I put there is not much
right side here. I think theRaiders are really going to be a disaster.
It's pretty tough. The divisions theywould play this year are gonna be
AFC East and NFC North. AFC'spretty challenging, NFC North not so much
(30:17):
so. A little bit of amixed bag there. But what I will
say, I've never been a JimmyG believer and I'm still not right now.
Again, I think he was successfulin a Kyle Shanahan's system and I
think that's what he did. Buthe did, let me rephrase it,
he did what he needed to do. Like Shanahan, seams were built around
defense and the run, and JimmyG helped leave that. He didn't need
(30:42):
to do anything that difficult. Hewas a game manager and I think it
worked out for him and he didthe job that he was asked to do.
That's not going to be the casehere in Oakland. He's going to
need to do things to help thisteam win and get on the positive side
on offense. I'm not a believerin it. But what I will say
is if Jimmy G finds a wayto get the Raiders above five hundred this
(31:03):
year, I'll buy into the holehe's just a winner. I will buy
into that he's just a winner argumentbecause I just don't see anything really positive
with this Raiders team, and ifhe finds a way to do that,
I will give him the credit thathe deserves. But again, I'm gonna
go under six point five wins forthe Vegas Raiders. Next up Denver,
Broncos. I was I was talkingwith a buddy about this, and I
(31:27):
don't know that. I don't thinkthere's been a worse first season after a
major contract then Russell Wilson in Denver. I mean, holy crap, the
guy. There was jokes going onuntil like the last week of the season.
What's gonna what total is gonna behigher? The number of bathrooms in
(31:48):
his house, which I believe wasfourteen, the biggest mansion he bought in
Denver. I think it's like themost expensive house in the Denver area,
which had fourteen bathrooms, Or thenumber of touchdowns he finished with. He
finished with sixteen. Running joke carriedall season long. It was an absolute
disaster for him. I've said thislast year and I'll say it again.
(32:08):
I fully believe that Russell Wilson's timein Seattle and like him being like being
viewed as an elite quarterback and allthat good stuff was a combination of elite
defense and an incredible run game.Pete Carroll builds his teams around that elite
defense, great run game, andI think Russell Wilson was just essentially Jimmy
(32:32):
Garoppolo again, just talking about Garo. I think Russell Wilson was a glorified
Jimmy Garoppolo. I'll say it again. Is he more talented than Jimmy g
Yes, I do think that,but I don't see him as being that
guy that's the reason this team winsgames. I just don't. And last
year he goes to Denver and reallyproved me right. I never bought into
Russ. I've always thought Russ wasa little bit too high upon everyone's pedestal,
(32:57):
and last year really showed it.Now, hey, we'll see they
got a new coach, Sean Paytoncomes in. Nathaniel Hackett only made it
the one season. Sean Payton actuallycame out this week and said, essentially
blamed last year all on Nathaniel Hackett. I don't fully buy that. Russell
wasn'ts a ten year vet. Youcan't blame it all in the head coach.
You just can't. But we'll seeSean Payton is an elite play call
(33:19):
or elite offensive mind. We've seenthat for years and he comes back to
the league now with the Denver Broncos. They do have an elite defense too.
I gotta say that Denver does havean incredible defense. I think they
can be better than they were lastyear. But I'm not buying into this
thing that Russ is competing with JustinHerbert and Patrick Mahomes. He's on a
different level. He is. Russis an average quarterback at best in my
mind, and those two are elite. We'll see Denver is Denver's win totals
(33:44):
eight point five. I'm going under. I am. I think they're third
in the division. I think thatmatchup with the AFC East is gonna be
a little rough on them. Andyeah, I don't buy into the Russ
bounce back. I think it'll bebetter, but he's not back to what
you got in Seattle. So I'mgoing to go under on the eight point
five for Denver. Next up toSan Diego Chargers. Justin Herbert signs a
(34:05):
massive deal just this past week,solidifying he's the QB for the Bolts going
forward. The offense is absolutely electricHerbert all right, yeah, you heard
me. I think he's a rightaround the top five quarterback. Probably he's
either five or just out. Butthey also have Keenan Allen Austin Eckler,
Mike Williams. Quintin Johnson was afirst round pick out of TCU that I
(34:28):
really like, a really big,good size, wide receiver. They have
a top ten offensive line. Theteam is built to put up a ton
of points. The issue was ondefense. They have two league players,
they have Joey Bosa and Derwin James. Outside of that, the average goes
below average. Honestly, the overalldefense is bottom half in the league.
I think this team is just goingto be a shootout team. It's just,
(34:51):
hey, you know what you're getting. They're going to try to outscore
you. Brandon Staley is a defensiveminded head coach. We'll see what he
can do if he can find away to contain other offenses to give their
to give the Bolts a chance tojust outscore teams. He obviously has not
been He's been very had some veryquestionable decisions. I guess I'll say with
the amount of times he ghost wornon fourth down and some of his time
out calls and different things like that. That being said, I am a
(35:14):
Chargers believer. I think this teamis low key a Super Bowl dark horse,
even though they're in division with theChiefs. I like the talent there.
I think LA really has a decentshot. Give me over nine and
a half wins on the Chargers.That's their line coming into this season,
last up in this division, Chiefs. I'm not gonna spend a ton of
time on Kansas City. You allknow Kansas City. We all know Kansas
(35:37):
City. Patrick Mahomes is the mosttalented QB I've ever seen. I didn't
say the best, did not saythe best, but talent wise, the
guy just does things I can't Ihaven't seen other quarterbacks do. Where he's
thrown it on the run, differentarm angles and still with elite accuracy and
velocity behind it. I haven't seenguys do that. So he's the best
(36:00):
back in the game. There's noreal question about that in my mind.
Extremely dynamic player who's very difficult tostop. Travis Kelsey entering the conversation of
Gray's tight end of all time,he is, I mean another season or
two like this, like we forthe last two decades, we've been blessed
with tight ends. I know TonyGonzalez is absolutely great before this, Antonio
(36:20):
Gates elite, but Gronk and nowKelsey just absolutely tight ends, revolutionizing that
position they have. They have anelite offensive line. The Chiefs are a
top three offensive line corner Pro Footballfocus. They are. On offense,
they're pretty much perfect, even thoughthey don't have those elite weapons on the
(36:40):
outside anymore. You know, theyhave Kdarius Tony list as their number one
wide receiver coming into this year.I fully expect they're going to find a
way to maximize him and maximize theother guys around him. Andy Reid is
really the premier offensive mind in thegame at this point. You have to
say that now is in him tandemwith having Patrick Mahomes, of course,
but it's you can't separate them atthis point. They're both really it could
(37:01):
been a perfect partnership. There's noholes on that side of the ball.
On defense, their middle of thepack to probably slightly above average in my
opinion. Steve Spagnolo's defensive coordinator runsa tight enough ship where he can keep
teams in check. And it's ifyou give Patrick Mahomes a chance in a
game, he's going to win itmore often than not. The Chiefs total
is at eleven and a half thisyear. They're the favorites toWin the super
(37:23):
Bowl. It's six to one.I think it's the over on the Chiefs.
I know some people are like,oh, you know, he gets
super Bowl hangover. They'll they takethem a little bit to wake up their
schedule. Again, not super easyto play in the top schedule, but
they're three toughest games in my opinion, which are the Eagles, the Bills,
and the Bengals. All three ofthem are in arrowhead. I expect
(37:44):
the Chiefs to win two or threeof those games and expect them to take
care of business in the division.Really, you know, maybe they lose
a game to the Chargers. Ithink they're going to beat the Raiders twice,
and they beat the Broncos twice.I think this team is going to
win at least twelve games this year, if not more. Chiefs So there's
class in the NFL in right.The Eagles are right there, and we're
not talking about the Eagles next week. We'll get there. I'm saving the
NFC the East, both East divisionsfor last for a reason. But the
(38:07):
Chiefs, in my opinion, haveto be considered the class of the league.
With that, we'll dive into theNFC West on the other side your
teams in that division, we gotthe Cardinals, Seahawks, forty nine ers,
and Rams this division this year theymatch up with the NFC East and
the AFC North in terms of theirschedule. NFC East obviously tough division.
(38:30):
Last year I had all the teamsabout five hundred pretty late made three teams
made the playoffs. And AFC Northalso not a picnic, but really three
teams, if not all four teamsfighting for playoff berths over there. So
really tough schedule on these guys,and you kind of see it in the
wind totals that we'll go through,where they're definitely a little bit deflated,
which I fully get. It's notas good a division as its AFC counterpart,
(38:52):
but it is certainly industrict and interesting. Excuse me, We'll start off
with what I consider the dumpster fireDivision, that is the Arizona Cardinals as
a franchise. Arizona's in trouble fora little bit. I mean they're locked
in with Kyler Murray, locked infor the foreseeable future. He's gonna be
injured for most of, if notall, of this season. It's a
(39:14):
message just when that contract got signed, even when they had, you know,
the stupid game film clause like itwas a disaster when it was happening.
It was embarrassing for Murray, itwas embarrassing for the Cardinals, and
they both still went through and lockedin. And here we are. It's
a mess. It's an absolute mess. Projected to be one of the worst
teams in the NFL. DeAndre Hopkinsno longer there, signed a deal in
(39:34):
Tennessee. The only other weapons onoffense. He got James Connor, decent
running back Marcus Brown. The speedsare on the outside. Colt McCoy is
going to be the quarterback. Itseems like he's the favorite, at least
going into the year. Loved himin college Cole but that's that's over a
decade ago. At this point.I just don't see him really being able
to do that much. Overall.The defense isn't any good either. Jonathan
(39:59):
Gannon coming in his head. Coach. You know, we don't need to
talk about Jonathan Gannon anymore here inPhilly, at least in my opinion.
I just let the do whatever you'regonna do out there. I'm not gonna
wish him success, but I'm justnot gonna think about him that much.
That being said, he's a rookiehead coach with an absolute garbage roster.
I don't think it's going to gowell. Schedule is really tough. I
think they're the lowest win total thatI've seen so far at four and a
(40:21):
half. I'm going under. Ithink it's that low for a reason.
I think the Cardinals are going tobe an absolute disaster jumping over to the
LA Rams two years removed from theSuper Bowl, yet they're coming in only
projected to win. Their total issitting at six and a half wins.
Matthew Stafford should be back, whichI think is a large upside compared to
last year where you did have Staffordfor some of the season, but he
(40:43):
was clearly playing hurt, and thenthey had other guys come in to finish
it off, including Baker Mayfield forthe second half of the season. You
also lost Cooper Cup for that secondhalf of the season. The defense is
aging, but they still have sometop talent. You got Jalen Ramsey and
Aaron Donald back there, so twoA League players and some other good pieces.
Sean mcvayh is an elite coach inmy mind. On the offense,
especially on the offensive side of theball. I don't think there's many better
(41:05):
than him out there. I expectthe Rams to bounce back. If I
get a healthy Matthew Stafford and ahealthy Cooper Cup, I think you can
make that offense scary. I reallydo. I can buy into the Rams
being legit again. Now. Theschedule is gonna be tough again. This
is this division, the NFC Westis going to have lower win totals this
year, like because just because ofthe other divisions they're going up against.
(41:25):
But I fully believe that the Ramswill be fighting in December for a playoff
spot. I buy in that thisteam is going to have some battles and
win more games than people are realizing. Six and a half wins is a
very low number. To me,I am going to go way over that.
It's one of my favorite plays,probably my favorite play of the day.
Here as I'm going through these oversix and a half wins, the
(41:47):
Rams seems like easy money to me, So I'm going to jump on that
one. And I really buy inthat Matthew Stafford Cooper Cup combination with Sean
McVeagh is still on the lead offensivemind is going to win. This team
a lot of games that people arenot giving them credit for, and they
could win the division. I thinkit was actually, let me get that
number for you real quick, orthe Rams to win that division. The
(42:07):
Rams to win the NFC West areten to one. I like that play.
I think that's a very very sneakygood play there. So I would
I'm definitely gonna be throwing throwing somedollar bills on that one next time to
go to San France. So similarlythe way I was talking about the Chiefs
earlier, we all know San Francisco. We all know the moaning and whining
(42:29):
after the NFC title game where ohwe good we didn't get hurt. We
would No, I'm not gonna lookthey're honestly, I won't know what.
Actually, I will say this,it's a bad like culture to be that
focused on the past. It reallyis. I can't see anyway how it's
because it's coming from the players andthe coaches. Look, fan bases,
I get it. Look I stillhear. Look, you'll hear Eagles fans
(42:51):
talking about the sad Father. LikeI it's fan bases are going to do
that. Forty nine are like theactual forty nine are players after that game,
and even still more recently where youhave like Deebo Samuel walking off sets
of interviews or just hanging up phoneslike it's a bad culture there. It
just it doesn't see. I smellsomething bad coming up at San Franciscos here,
And I know a lot of peopleare high on them. Most people
(43:13):
see them as the main threat inthe NFC of the Eagles, I would
I would say Dallas. I thinkDallas is a little more of a threat,
and the main reason for that there'sa huge issue quarterback. I think
brock Purty has the potential to bea legit starter in this league. I'm
not not elite, I don't.I don't think he has the ability to
be an elite guy. But Ithink you meet a starter. That being
said, he's coming off in aserious injury and now coordinators have film on
(43:36):
him like he's not just gonna wineight straight or whatever the hell he did
last year Again, where no onereally prepped for brock Purty, it was
kind of a here we go.And secondly, like look, I get
Kyle Shanahan's system is effective on offense, it absolutely is, But Shanahan's track
record as a head coach is notoverall great. Let's pull up these stats
here on Kyle Shanahan coaching stats andit's kind of usually been a year on,
(44:00):
year off type thing. So yeah, let's let's read through. So
Kyle Shanahan has been now head coachthe forty nine ers for six seasons.
First couple of seasons six and y'allstreet to reach here, six and ten,
four and twelve, thirteen and three, six and ten, ten and
seven, thirteen and four. It'sup and down, up and down.
(44:22):
I feel like we're due for adown. Like I could be wrong on
this, and maybe I am.You know, I'll have some people saying,
oh, you're just an Eagles homeand I'm not. Again, I
think the Eagles again. We'll goover the Eagles next week. I am
probably lower on the Eagles than mostare this year, and just in terms
of what I think their wind totalwill be at the end, I think
they're still the best team in theNFC, but in their win totals probably
(44:44):
going to be lower than what peopleexpect. That being said, today we're
focused on the NFC West for theforty nine Ers. They're total sitting at
ten and a half. I thinkit's I think it's an under, I
really do. I think this scheduleis going to really beat them up.
And I know they beat people up, but I don't know. I am
not buying in this is gonna begreat defense. This is still an elite
defense. I get it Christian McCaffrey, great offensive weapons with him, Debo
(45:06):
and George Kittle, but without aquarterback that I can fully buy into.
I just don't buy into this teamyet. I just don't or not I
shouldn't say yet. I don't buyinto this team's going to be the elite.
I just don't give me the underten and a half for San Francisco,
which leads us lastly with Seattle.Seattle's win total sitting at nine and
a half, and guys, I'mgonna say it up front, I'm high
(45:28):
on Seattle, down on San francbut I'm high on Seattle. I buy
into the Geno Smith turnaround being legitand carrying on another season. I'm not
saying he's gonna be like that.Like there was a Geno MVP talk last
year that's not gonna happen. Andeven that was, you know, tongue
in cheek a little bit last season, but I think he's a legitimately good
quarterback. I think he's a Ithink he will be a top half of
(45:50):
the league quarterback by the when we'retalking this time in January, which is
all that you need out there inSan Franciso or sorry, in Seattle.
With these weapons, he's got DKMetcalf, Tyler Lockett, and Kenneth Walker
coming back from last year, allvery very solid. DK's and elite one
receiver. Lockett's one of the besttwo receivers in the league, and Kenneth
Walker was a fantastic rookie running backand just absolutely elite. And then they
(46:15):
picked up Jackson Smith and Jigben ZachScharbone in the draft this year in the
first and second round. Smith andJigben to me, was the best offensive
player, well, let me rephrasethat, best wide receiver, I guess
I'll say coming into the draft,and best no, I'll say best skill
position offensive player coming into the draft. I really think that he is an
(46:36):
elite player, and honestly, Ithink I know what. I think the
only offensive player I'd have in frontof him is probably Bryce Young. I
think that high of Jackson Smith andJimbo. I think he is absolutely going
to kill it in the league.And then there's too many guys to cover.
I really do. I think teamsare gonna have trouble covering Seattle this
year. The one hole is theoffensive line. The offensive line's bad.
There's no way around that. Bottomfive offensive line in my opinion, not
(47:00):
not great. Hey, every teamas their holes. We'll see if Seattle
can come up with that. ButI trust Pete Carroll to be able to
build up his defense to support this, to be able to just balance out
with this offense where you're gonna putup points. You have too many weapons
not to put up points. It'snow the question of can the defenses hold
the other teams in check? AndI trust Pete cow to figure that out.
(47:20):
I'm gonna go over nine and ahalf wins on Seattle I want.
I'm gonna take Seattle to win theWest at plus two hundred. I also
throw a ticket on the Rams atten to one, but take on the
Seahawks to win the division at plustwo hundred, and I'm gonna take one
ticket on them at thirteen to winthe NFC and thirty to one to win
the Super Bowl. I'll say ithere, I'll say it again, like
I don't think Seattle lost anything whenthey lost Trussell Wilson, and I think
(47:43):
this team is going to build offwhat they did last year when they made
a supply surprise playoff from I reallythink Seattle is going to surprise a ton
of people this year. And withthat, I'll get off my Seattle ram.
We're running out of time, sothanks everyone for tuning in. We'll
be back next week do the NFCEast and AFC East. Will do both
Eastern NFL divisions, as well aswhatever topics hit us throughout the week that
(48:07):
we need to talk about. Asalways, everyone stay tuned to the Gambler
Daily, Ticket Line Change, Divide, Live Baseball Brunch. So many,
so many great shows. I knowI missed several of them. I'm sure
I'll make sure you get them.Get them in later. But you guys
know this is the place to befor football season. It's coming up fast.
Be here. I'll talk to yousoon. Talk later.
Popular Podcasts
Stuff You Should Know
If you've ever wanted to know about champagne, satanism, the Stonewall Uprising, chaos theory, LSD, El Nino, true crime and Rosa Parks, then look no further. Josh and Chuck have you covered.
24/7 News: The Latest
The latest news in 4 minutes updated every hour, every day.
Crime Junkie
Does hearing about a true crime case always leave you scouring the internet for the truth behind the story? Dive into your next mystery with Crime Junkie. Every Monday, join your host Ashley Flowers as she unravels all the details of infamous and underreported true crime cases with her best friend Brit Prawat. From cold cases to missing persons and heroes in our community who seek justice, Crime Junkie is your destination for theories and stories you won’t hear anywhere else. Whether you're a seasoned true crime enthusiast or new to the genre, you'll find yourself on the edge of your seat awaiting a new episode every Monday. If you can never get enough true crime... Congratulations, you’ve found your people. Follow to join a community of Crime Junkies! Crime Junkie is presented by audiochuck Media Company.