Balls, Bats, and Bets -- 8/18/23

Tim O'Keefe goes over college football realignment, NFC/AFC East season previews, and discusses James Harden (for the last time on this show.)

Episode Transcript

(00:00):
For national winners. From a localperspective, you're in the right place.
It's balls, bats and bets withTim o'keee right here on the Gambler.
Football is back, Baseball's in fullswing. The fills are well, maybe
I won't say hot at the moment, they lost three of their last four,
but playing overall really well. Andman, we got a mess with

(00:20):
the Sixers. Welcome in everyone toballs, bats and bets. We have
no shortage of topics to talk throughtoday. Obviously, it was so much
going on. I mean, Iwas doing the show notes for today and
I was like, man, howthe hell am I gonna limit this down?
But we're gonna find a way.We're gonna pick the main topics,
we're gonna go through them, butso much to dive into. I first

(00:41):
want to start out, I'm gonnarip the band aid off. I'm gonna
do the James Harden conversation up front, and then we're gonna get into more
stuff that's fun. At this point, I am just in my mind James
Harden's not on the team. Thatdoesn't mean he's not part of I don't
I don't want him still in theSixers roster. I'm not saying Daryl more

(01:03):
cut James Harden. I'm not sayingthat whatsoever. But in my own mindset,
he's just not part of the teamuntil he shows up. If he
shows up, great, but otherwiseI'm just not gonna let this guy take
any more of my my brain space. He's not worth it. He's just
saying ridiculous, you know what,to for all attention to himself and try
to make it awkward. I justdon't care about you at this point,

(01:26):
James, I really don't. Wow. Yeah, I mean, he's just
says ridiculous thing after ridiculous thing.Earlier in the week, I guess last
week, Camp comes out calls DarylMorey a liar and says he can never
play for an organization that he's apart of. Guess what. Look,
I am sure obviously the Maury Hardenedrelationship was supposed to be like the best

(01:47):
in basketball and now it's spoiled.I'm sure that Harden was upset that he
didn't get the MAX from Maury.I don't know if Morey actually promised anything
anything or not. None of usare ever really gonna know either way,
it's one hundred percent the right decisionfor Daryl Morey not to give James Harden
the max contract. It's just saysyou can't justify it. He at this

(02:08):
point in his career, James Hardenis a good, very even very good.
He's a very good player, verygood aging player. You can't give
that type of guy the max.It's not gonna work. He's not an
all star level anymore. He's justoutside of that. And you're at his
age. You don't get max contractsat that. I I get that.

(02:28):
It's look, he's obviously hurt bythe Hey, it's been more and Harden,
more and Harden for years. Ijust don't care. I guess what.
He made the right decision for hisbasketball team. And I'm not saying
Daryl Morey is perfect in all this. Obviously he's got a you gotta try
to You shouldn't have let it getto this point, But here we are.
James Harden's doing what James Harden's goingto do at this today or I

(02:51):
guess it was yes it was yesterday. Sorry yesterday comes out and says,
you know, maybe I'll play inChina for a year. Great tame sers,
go play, go play in China. By all means please go play
in China, because then you justcome back the season after that, and
the way it would work is theSixers would still have your rights, that
you'd still be essentially obligated. Iguess it's the word to play out this

(03:16):
opted in contract, So sure,go do it for a year. Who
the hell cares, You're just gonnamake yourself less valuable by being another year
older and playing against much worse competitionin the China League. I just stop
saying ridiculous like he's just gonna keepdoing this, like I guess I'm trying
to prep the good people of Philadelphiahere. He is going to just keep

(03:38):
saying ridiculous stuff for the sake thathe can see his name in the across
the bottom line on the TV shows. That's it. That's all he wants
at this point, because otherwise it'she lost and didn't get what he wanted
because either A doesn't show up anddoesn't get paid, or B shows up
plays gets paid and he's good.He's just not happy. But he plays

(04:02):
this whole like, oh, I'mjust gonna make a trade of everything to
try to force a trade. DarrylMoore is not going to trade him unless
we get value back. We sawthis with Ben Simmons, like last are
I guess two years ago at thispoint, like we know we've seen this
movie. It sucks that we haveto see the sequel, but we've seen
this movie. And honestly, JamesHarden's is actually surprising and maybe maybe it's

(04:25):
recency buyas James Harden's almost at thispoint like pissing me off more than Simmons
did. Simmons. Simmons is acry baby, cry baby, and he
had he there's some mental blocks there. They're just is like Simmons again,
I'm not a Ben Simmons defender ofwhatsoever. It was garbage that he's the
thing he did too, but likeit wasn't just oh, I want to

(04:49):
see my name in the lights,like he at least had a purpose for
it. Hardened to me, isjust making noise for the sake of making
noise because he's crying. We gota thirty what is he thirty four?
I'm blank and I should I don'tcare if enough about him anymore to know
his exact age. We got athirty four year old cry baby out there,
and great, go go play inChina for a year, so he's

(05:12):
dropping everything he's saying. He seemslike he's always trying to get Morey fired.
Was play number one, you know, with the I'll never play for
organization. He's a part of,you know, noting that he didn't say
I wouldn't play with the Sixers,just he wouldn't play for as long as
darn more he's there. And Ihate to break it to you. Morey
is essentially the owner at this pointbecause Josh Harris is off doing other things,
has a lot of other focus.More he's running the team. He's

(05:34):
not gonna fire himself. So dumbplay number one by Harden. I already
did the China one. That's howdumb that is. And then separately,
beyond that, you opted into thecontract. James Harden said, okay,
I'll opt into this contract, andthen he tried to pull the immediately demand
a trade thing, which I getin today's NBA sadly does work a lot.

(05:58):
But it didn't work here, andyou saw it didn't work here before.
I don't know what you're thinking that'sgonna work now. It was just
dumb and he guess what if therewas a market for you, you would
have opted out. You found outthere wasn't a market. You're mad that
at this point in your career you'renot as valuable as you once were five,
six, seven years ago, andyou're frustrated. So you made a

(06:21):
financial decision to opt in for thisyear because that was the way you saw
yourself getting the most money. You'regetting thirty seven million dollars to go play
basketball. I'm just done with it. I'm just done. That's it's ridiculous.
I'm looking around right now. Idon't know who else is gonna look
him here, but like, it'sjust absolutely ridiculous, and I'm just done

(06:44):
paying any attention to it. Iget that. Look, we're sports media.
People are gonna they're going to talkabout it, which sucks, but
I'm personally done. I don't reallycare if he says, you know,
I'm going to the Moon, I'mgonna play on Mars next year. I
don't care. Great James, Like, I just literally do not care if
you show up in a six ersjersey start playing again, all right,

(07:05):
I guess I'll care a little bitbecause now you're part of the team trying
to build an overall goal. I'llwatch it, but that's that's it.
I'm done listening to what he hasto say because this guy is just not
worth the energy. He's just notthe biggest Again, I feel like people,
this is gonna become a debate,I promise you, because he's gonna

(07:26):
keep saying ridiculous stuff. Who's thebigger mess? Was it Harden or Simmons.
I think it's gonna be hardened atthe end of this. Again,
this is not trying to minimize thewhole Simmons debacle because Simmons was awful.
I can't stand Ben Simmons. Iam I'm done with him. I don't
know if we're ever going to seehim on an NBA court again, quite
frankly, but that doesn't mean thatwhat James Harden's doing isn't even more ridiculous.

(07:53):
And this is just the start.This is just the start of an
absolute mess, and we all,I think we all see it, but
it's absurd. The only thing worthpaying attention to in this whole mess,
there's one thing going forward, andthat actually I think our own Sean Barnhard
on the Gamba here O MBA expert, he called this out. He put

(08:15):
out a I guess a post onX, it's not tweet anymore. Whatever
it is calling out that Joel Embiiddid remove Philadelphia and Processing from his bio.
I'm not going to read too muchinto it and right now, but
that's the one thing that is worthmonitoring this whole situation. It's how does

(08:35):
this affect Joel Embiid, Because JoelEmbiid is still part of this team,
he's the reigning MVP. That isworth watching something for it like that.
That's that's the only thing. DoI think Joel embid really loves James Harden
No, I honestly don't. Ithink that relationship got built up to try
to make it seem like they werethe great fit. I'm sure they're fine

(08:56):
with each other. I'm not tryingto say there's a huge disconnect there,
but I don't personally think there's somelike huge tight relationship. But you know,
it's a lot another off season ofdistraction two in the last three years
where you got something going on thatdoes suck for Embiid, who's one of
the best players in the league.That's the thing worth monitoring. That's the
only thing. So if I getinputs from Joel, and by me,

(09:20):
I mean I guess, Daryl Morey, that's what I have to take seriously
because Joel Embiid is what you're builtthis team around, and hopefully after next
offseason have cap space to be ableto try a different team with him.
This year, for the six Ers, it's not a throwaway because you're going
to try to win, but Iwe're not going to improve a ton unless
you know, Maxie takes a hugestep forward, you're probably looking at another

(09:43):
second round exit. Again, it'sreally early, but that's what that's what
I see. I think that's probablywhat most of us see. Yeah,
it sucks, but I think nextseason, the season after this one,
is the one where you have toreally hope, Hey, we take that
step forward, and James Harden's notgoing to be a part of that.
We all know that maybe he playsthis year, maybe he's not coming back.
Beyond that, there's just no shotin hell. So yeah, I'm

(10:07):
done burning any calories with James Harden. And I mean it right now,
and that's right at the ten minutemark as we hider this as we enter
the show. So I'm gonna callit right there. I will jump over
to the Phillies first quick second again, I am all in that the Phillies
are going to be the first wildcard. I said this for really,
I think now a couple of monthsI wasn't overly concerned with this team,

(10:31):
primarily in part because the NL Isee is week there's two legit teams.
There are two more legit teams,I'll say than the Phillies. I think
those are the Dodgers and the Braves. Everyone else after that does not scare
me when I compare him to thisPhillies roster and all the talent. Huge
thing that I do love seeing TreyTurner, I don't want. We didn't
have a show last week, soI didn't get to address this, but
the whole standing ovation thing. Welldone, Philly, Hey, well done.

(10:54):
Clap for us, Clap clap onthe back for us. Because this
guy's now turning into the hitter thatwe signed, and he's playing very well
overall, and he does seem likea nice guy. I like him too
for that, but he's playing verywell. Castianis has gotten hot again.
Harper's power seems to come back witha home run Wednesday night. Like there's
there's good things. Things are trendingin the right direction. I know we
lost the last two or three tothe Twins and then lost the first one

(11:16):
in Toronto, making our last threeor four losses. I get it,
But overall, I'm just not concernedup two and a half games on the
wild card. I believe from thelast slot in the wild card, as
we able to that first first placespot, hold that first place spot in
the Wildcard. That'll get you amatchup with the second wildcard team and it
will be at ci since Bank Park. And if the Giants or the Reds

(11:37):
or the Brewers or the Cubs orthe Marlins are having to come into Citizens
Bank Park, I don't see uslosing that series. Granted it's a small,
small series, it's only three games, but all three games would be
at home. Yeah, I'll takemy chances there. So love the way
the fillers are going overall, andI'm really excited. Well, I know

(11:58):
there is one other question I wantedto go through actually with the there's a
topic. Actually, no, andI we'll save that for later. We're
gonna save that for later. No, I'm gonna back off that. I'm
gonna back off that. So I'mgonna take a quick break. Now,
we got a lot more coming up. We got, let's see, I'm
gonna do some college football realignment.That's where we're gonna talk about in our
next segment. Also a couple ofcollege football season picks that I'll throw in

(12:22):
that segment as well. And thenlastly, we'll do the NFC and AFC
East previews coming up in our lastin our third segment after that, So
don't go anywhere, balls, betsand bets here on the Gambler. We'll
be back right after this the GamblePhillies Home for all things sports gambling.
All right, welcome back, welcomeback. There was one thing, as

(12:43):
you guys probably heard towards the endof the first segment, and I was
like, I had notes to bringsomething else up, and I'll be honest,
I couldn't find it in my notes. But now I found it,
and I can't believe I forgot aboutthis. So I gotta talk quickly about
the no hitter last week. MichaelLorenzen debut for the Fighting Phills. We'll
debut at home for the Fighting Phills, excuse me, and goes out there,

(13:05):
tosses an absolute gem four walk nohitter, just absolutely dominant, incredible
game and obviously I was there inperson. It's it's it's one of the
rarest things you get to see inbaseball. Absolutely just blessed, incredible to
be there, and it did remindme, like, I gotta bring this

(13:28):
up with you. I don't thinkI'm ever gonna win the lottery because of
the stat I'm about to give youright now. But that is my third
no hitter, okay, and actuallytechnically third. Four of the Phillies I've
seen four. One of them wasagainst us. I've seen four no hitters.
The odds of that, I gottabe one of the leaders in the
country. Again, I don't goto every single game, Like I'm not

(13:50):
a guy that's there every single night. Like we have a it's me and
my family. We have a seventeengame plan, right, So each year
I probably make it too fourteen fifteengames for the Phillies and then playoffs,
you know, I'll make it.This is mostly regular season games. But
I mean, what the hell arethe odds of that. I've been to

(14:11):
three no hitters. They've had fourteenPhillies. I had fourteen no hitters in
franchise history. I've been to threeof them. I again, the Phillies.
Again, I'm not gonna break downthe math for you, but I'm
never gonna win the lottery because that'smy lottery. Absolutely, just ridiculous odds.
Just been to the Michael lorenz Inone. Now, I was at

(14:31):
Holidays playoff no hitter against the Redsand back into three Kevin Millwood at the
Vet. Just odds of that absolutelyridiculous. Again, No, who knows,
maybe maybe I'll get another one someday, but the odds have to be
absolutely stacked against me. Also,also the fourth one, I was at
the World Series game last year withthe Astros that combined no hitter against us,

(14:52):
which sucked, but that's why Ikind of blocked it out from my
memory. But that is technically I'veseen four no hitters, which is just
absolutely ridiculous odds. Cannot cannot fathomit. How to address that really quick?
But yeah, So, John Middleton, if you're listening and you want
more no hitters, give me andmy family free season tickets that you increase

(15:13):
your odds exponentially. I'm just sayingthe next topic, I wanted to dive
into college football. It's been avery interesting month, I guess. Let's
say a month and a half andI at least think for now, well,
some things are still moving, butwe have a general shape of what
college football is going to be likefor the at least near future. I
don't think it's done permanently, buthad a lot of moves. The Pac

(15:37):
Twelve obviously the conference that got rippedto shreds. There's just not there's four
teams after this season, so thisseason they're still intact. Next season the
Pac twelve becomes unrecognizable. We hadmoves the Big Ten probably being the biggest
winners and all this. They takeOregon, Washington and then USC UCLA that

(15:58):
that was negotiated last year, sowe knew that was already gonna happen.
But Oregon and Washington being the newguys jumping over to the Big Ten.
For the Big Twelve, they're gainingUtah, Colorado, Arizona and Arizona State.
Utah and Colorado former Big twelve membersalready going back, and then now
Arizona Arizona State jumping over to theBig twelve, which I got. You

(16:21):
gotta give the Big Twelve credit.A lot of people wrote them off as
the conference I was going to bepicked to shreds. I thought that.
I thought when Texas and Oklahoma weregoing, I was like, wow,
they're they're cooked. But they dida good job at supplementing their conference by
picking off teams from what is it, the Non Conference USA, the American
Conference. Excuse me? They withteams like Cincinnati UCF. Again not not

(16:45):
they're not the big names like Texasand Oklahome, I get it, but
they've builds up so that they havea decent program. They were a decent
programs SMU also jumping over there andHouston, Yeah, which is a good
set. That's it. Those aregood football teams. And now they're taking
some of the better teams that wereleft in the Big are the Pac twelve
and making it into a decent conference. I'm not like, it's not the

(17:06):
Big twelve, it's not the BigTen or SEC, but it might.
It's probably the third best conference.If I fast forward to next year,
I know the ACC's right there too. It's close. In general, I
think I would probably lean towards thisversion of the Big Twelve. Will end
up seeing how that pans out inthe future. But what I'll say now,

(17:26):
diving into the I guess I'll callit the negatives, and they are
the negatives. It's gonna be weird. The regionalization of college football is dead,
at least to an extent. TheSEC still somewhat has a regional base.
You know, they go all theway out to Texas now, but
overall they're still South. You know, if you just want to call it
the South Conference and says Southeastern,you'd feel at least there's some continuity there.

(17:52):
Like, it's not too bad.There's still some far trips. I
mean, you got Florida having togo to play Oklahoma. I mean that's
that's not a short distance, butit's a little more reasonable. The Big
Ten's just hey, whoever wants tojoin, right you are going to have
college softball games. I'm just pickinga random sport of Rutgers versus organ Like

(18:14):
where those teams, those those smallerteams and non revenue generating teams are gonna
have to do this ridiculous traveling unlessthey figure something out, which maybe they
will, but it is pretty wildto think that. I'll just keep using
Rutgers. But Penn State and UCLAanother random one that's going to be a
regular season matchup in the Big Ten, Like some of these things are just

(18:37):
going to feel weird and there's nothingyou can do about it. But like
it's all driven by money. Weknow that. And these are all premier
schools, right, I mean forthe most part, each like the big
ten in the SEC, each havea couple little weak spots, but they're
not It doesn't seem like they're kickingteams out at this point, so those
will stay. But overall these arejust elite schools in these conferences. I

(19:03):
it is frustrating because you know's I'lluse the Oregan example, so Oregon versus
Oregon State was a big rivalry.Same thing with Washington and Washington State.
Oregon State and Washington State are leftbehind and they're one of four teams remaining
in the in the PAC twelve,with cal and Stanford also just sitting there.
They're trying to figure out what they'regonna all do. But yeah,
like the Apple Cup, which wasWashington versus Washington State each year, I

(19:26):
guess it will still be played,but it's not it's only our conference game.
Same thing with Oregon and Oregon State, I believe formerly known as the
Civil War again my apologies. Ibelieve they changed the name of the rivalry,
but I forget, so I'm justgonna keep calling the Civil War and
it was Those are big games likeOregon Oregan State last year. It was
a fantastic game. And actually Iwant to talk about Oregon State coming up
shortly because they're a team I likethis year. But it's it's messy.

(19:51):
It's just it feels messy, itfeels rushed. I know it's all driven
by money. I get it,you can't. It's no one wants to
get left out in the cold,like what's happening to or those four remaining
teams in the PAC twelve. Butit does just kind of it's an end
of an era or these you know, it was a big thing, these
regional rivalries, and now they're goingaway. You'll still have, you know,

(20:15):
probably one main rival, like theexamples I just gave of. Let's
say Oregon versus Organ State. They'llfind a way to play that one because
that's like the main rival. Ibelieve that they'll find a way to play
that game. But you're not goingto get the I'll call it Oregon versus
Washington State, like you're not goingto get Oregon versus Utah. Those are

(20:37):
dead, Like these things are fallingapart, and it sucks, it really
sucks. But we all knew thiswas coming. I think for a long
time. The next moves I seekind of coming, I think it's the
ACC might be getting picked off.I know Clemson and Florida State are the
the SECN Big Ten. I'm surewe'd love to get their hands on them.

(20:59):
Those are are extremely valuable football programs. Miami and the ACC is also
there than the Carolina teams like NorthCarolina, NC State, even Duke a
little bit have some value they do, especially if I started factor in basketball
into this, which it's all drivenby football, but basketball is a nice
kind of complimentary pieces. There's alot of value there. The big the

(21:22):
one thing that I will also wantto monitor going forward, besides the ACC
getting picked apart, which I thinkprobably happens in two to three years,
there's something with Florida State's contract that'sholding that up where it would cost them
a ridiculous amount of money right nowto exit, so I think they might
have to wait a few years toget out of that. But it's coming,
like the ACC has either got tomake moves to try to pick off

(21:42):
teams from one of those big conferences, which I don't see them being able
to do, or they're just goingto start getting picked apart, and it's
going to start with the big boys. But the one thing I really want
to monitor for how this impacts.As you all know, we have a
new college football playoff format coming upin a couple of years, and actually
I believe it's next year that thisall takes effect. Where I think I

(22:04):
have this right, I believe it'stake this with a grain of salt.
I think it's eight teams with orno, maybe it's twelve teams. Let's
immust know what. We're gonna dosome quick research on the fly. One
second, please, So it's eithereight or twelve teams. Let's see future
college playoff. Let's see doo doodoo. Dude. All right, you

(22:32):
guys get it. Nope, Nope, that's the wrong You're all right now
we're going to all right, we'regonna skip this. I'm just going to
assume it's eight games or eight teams. But the way, the big part
of it is that the each ofthe Power of Five conferences as they were
named today, which would be theBig ten SEC, PAC twelve Big twelve
a SEC. The champion was goingto get an automatic bid. That was

(22:55):
all agreed upon as they're going forward. Whether it's eight or twelve teams doesn't
really matter. That was agreed uponand they were going for with that.
Now, the PAC twelve, itis still a conference, even though there's
gonna be four teams in at themoment for that, I guess it would
be the twenty twenty four season.There's still a conference they're going. If
I'm the PAC twelve and those fourremaining teams, I'm gonna try to really

(23:17):
I'm gonna pick at the Mountain West. That's what I'm gonna do. I'm
gonna try to pick off as manyteams as I can from that Mountain West
division. You know where you gotBoise State, San Diego State, some
other folks like that. And it'snot bad. Like the Mountain West is
a decent conference, obviously now whatthe PAC twelve was, but it's not

(23:37):
bad. So if you take prettylet's just say you absorbed the Mountain West
and then you add those four teamsin the PAC twelve, they are already
there. Out of the Power fiveand air quotes. It's the worst conference,
but it's it's not a complete wreck. And the argument's going to be,
does the PAC twelve get to keepits automatic bid? If I'm the
SEC Big ten all those folks,I'm gonna want to say hell no,

(24:03):
because seriously, you'll have a you'llhave a spot where hey, I'll use
organ State. Organ State won thePAC twelve and they might be ranked number
fifteen to twenty, and then youhave to keep out a number ten Penn
State. Just picking teams out ofa hat like that's that's the kind of
arguments that you're having here, Likethat automatic bid is really valuable, and
that's what That's the most valuable thingleft for the PAC twelve conference at this

(24:26):
point. It's not any of theteams they have left. It's the automatic
bid. So they're gonna fight likehell to keep that. I'm very curious
how that breaks out. That's goingto be a very interesting argument going forward.
I think we have to wait tosee what the PAC twelve looks like
in order to do that, butlook at a lot of it's gonna be
very interesting for a little bit goingforward. And I hope I was gonna

(24:51):
say, I hope it's done,but we all it's probably not like we
know. At some point, likeI was just mentioning the ACC, I
thinks next on the docket to startto get picked at, and it's coming
and we will find out. Buteither way, at least the storm is
calm at the moment in terms ofcollege realignment. And the last thing I'll
reiterate it, please just let footballbreak away. Let these be football conferences

(25:11):
and let the other sports just staythe way they are. Maybe bad men's
basketball if you want to take it, fine, if not, not,
gonna lose a sleep over it.But football's what's driving this. Make football
the only thing that has an impacton it. So with that, speaking
of football, this year, atleast we have our standard conferences, so
we're gonna keep pushing forward with that. I've got three conference winners for you

(25:33):
that I think you should buy into, all relatively long shots at least five
to one to win their conference,and I'm all start with the longest one.
This is got I know, thisis this. I am talking football
here. Please, everyone knows Iam talking football. But Duke to win
the ACC forty to one, Igot you. You're yelling, Tim,
You're crazy. This is coach kis not coaching the football team. Yeah,

(25:57):
no, I guess I know he'snot. But won nine games last
year and they're returning plenty of startersnear Actually, I think they might have
the most in the conference, ifnot the right there. Riley Leonard at
QB is very solid. I reallylike what I saw out of him.
I think he's going to be asneaky draft prospect coming up at QB.
I think it could be very good. And I think this team is easily

(26:18):
gonna fight for a chance to winthe ACC late Again, obviously, Clemson
Florida State are the big dogs inthat conference. Duke's schedules not that difficult,
from being honest, and overall incertain rankings, they're not ranked top
twenty five right now, but therank like thirty ish, and that's a
lot better than what Dukes and ranksin the past. And you know that
all these things carry a little biaseach season, Like you think coming into

(26:40):
the year, you look at therecruiting stats, you look at all that
stuff, which matters. I'm notsaying it doesn't, but there's a natural
inclination and not have Duke ranked highin football, And I think that's a
miss this year. I really thinkthe Blue Devils are going to be a
pretty solid football team. And atforty to one again let me repeat that,
forty two one to win the ACC. I think that's really good value.

(27:00):
I can't tell you I expect itto hit necessarily, but what I
can tell you is I expect thatyou get into you know, late November.
Duke is right there fighting to geta spot in that ACC title game.
I fully expect that. And atforty to one, that's incredible value.
So I am all in on theBlue Devils at that value to potentially
win the ACC. The next onea little a little calmer of a pick.

(27:23):
Oh excuse me, but Penn Stateto win the Big ten. They're
at plus five fifty, so aboutfive and a half to one. Yeah,
I know, Ohio State in Michiganare still there. I fully get
that. James Franklin has not donea good job at being able to beat
those two big dogs. I getit. And if you want to say,
hey, if you're calling me outon that, I fully get it.

(27:45):
But what I'll say is Penn State, if they're ever going to strike,
this is a really good shot tostrike, bringing back, plenty of
starters on both sides of the ball. They have a new quarterback and Drew
Aller, who's the most talented,at least on paper from a recruiting standpoint,
that Penn State has had in along time. He just is He

(28:06):
is the most talented QB that's gonnabe starting for the Knittney Lions in a
long time. Nick Singleton at runningback absolutely elite last year freshman in the
year of the Big Ten. Andthat running game that can help them just
control the game. So when you'reup against the Ohio States and the Michigan's,
keep that keep the other team offthe field is going to be a
huge part of how Penn State canwin a game. And I think that's

(28:26):
what they're going to try to doand I fully buy in that they can
do that with that type of runninggame. Is Ohio I'll say is Ohio
State seems a little bit weaker tome than usual this year. Again,
they're still an elite team. I'mnot trying to say Ohio State's bad by
any stretch. Do not take thatfrom Do not take that from this,
but lost a lot of starters,new QB seems to be a potential striking

(28:47):
point for Ohio State. Michigan,on paper, is the best team in
the conference. I expect Michigan tobe fighting for a national championship, but
that matchup, Penn State does getthat one at home. They're on the
road at Ohio State. They playMichigan at home. I think Ohio State's
a little weaker. I think PennState could sneak them, and then Michigan,
you got him coming a Happy Valley. Michigan's an elite team, but

(29:10):
I really think Penn State is prettyelite this season. I do. I
think Penn State's gonna be very good. James Franklin's recruiting, we know that's
his strength. I think it's allculminating to a pretty good setup for this
season, and we'll see, we'llsee what happens. But I am all
in on Penn State to win theBig twelve, excuse me, the Big
ten this year. At plus fivefifty my last one, last of the

(29:32):
three I mentioned, I was gonnacome back him earlier. Oregon State one
of those four teams that's gonna beleft out in the cold when the Pac
twelve dissolves. But this season they'reeleven o one to win the Pac twelve,
still going up against the USC's,UCLA's, Utah's Oregons. And I
like him. I mean, Ithink it's a little kick in the ass
on the way out, like hey, like Oregon States saying, hey,
get out of our conference. Youweren't good enough anyway, And there's a

(29:55):
little m motivation for that. Butreally what it is is they're returning a
ton of starters, had an elitedefense last year. And last year again,
they had a great season, thebest one I can remember for Organ
State in a long time. Theyhad. They had awful quarterback play,
like absolutely dreadful quarterback play. Andnow we're bringing in djongi La, former
Clemson qback quarterback which looked he fullysucceeded Clemson. No he didn't, but

(30:22):
he is such an upgrade over whatthey had last year at quarterback. And
know what, now he's out ofthe spotlight a little bit. He's clearly
talented. He was the top quarterbackcoming out of his class. I really
think he could have a turnaround season. Again, I didn't like him at
Clemson from what I saw, andit does seem like the moment was a
little bit too big for him.But there's no questions an upgrade for organ
State over what they had last year, and they're returning a ton of starters.

(30:45):
I really buy in. The organState is loaded this year. They're
going to be able to compete withthe Washington's, USC's Utah's, who I
think are the other premier teams inthe division or the conference, Oregon as
well. But organ State, theBeavers, they're sleep on buying on eleven
to one one for them. That'sa telling number. They're usually so much
higher, and I really buy it, and they're gonna have a great season.
So I'm all in on the Beaversfor this college football season coming up,

(31:08):
and that we're gonna take a quickbreak. I'm deciding. I'm deciding
we're gonna do the NFC East andAFC East previews were for us saved up
for next week because I got afew other things I really want to talk
to you guys about. So I'mgonna figure that out during the break,
So give me a minute. We'llbe right back on Fox Sports. The
Gambler balls bats and bets right afterthis spreads totals and all the props.

(31:32):
It's the Gambler all right, thirdfinal segment on this lovely Friday night on
Balls, Bats and bets. Asalways, I'm your host, Timo Keep.
You can follow me at t KOUnderscore Picks on X. It still
feels word to say, but we'regonna we are gonna do our NFCAFC East
previews. I was a little nervousbecause, you know, running tight on
time, little bits. I wantedto do a deep dive here, but

(31:55):
I think we're gonna have enough toknock it out. So we're gonna start
with the NFC East. Usually savethe NFL. Well, I save the
division. I'm more interested in forlast because you know, I got the
Eagles that's more interesting. But Iwant to make sure we have enough time
to give that full deep dive there. So let's just dive right in.
Gonna start off, or I'll savethe Eagles for the last in this division
though, Gonna start off with theWashington Commanders. You know, new owner,

(32:17):
new hopes. Question mark in myvoice, Josh Harris comes in.
It's his new toy. I meana Dan Schneider's gone. That's really the
big story here. It doesn't matterwho else took over. If you're looking
at it from the commander's perspective.They come in with an expectation of about
six and a half wins for thisyear. That's their win total. And

(32:39):
I'll tell you I'm a little I'msurprised. I'm a little high on this
Washington team compared to that number.Sam how A QB is obviously a big
question mark fifth round pick. Ithink two years ago, was a big
time player in college for North Carolinaat times was thought of to be a
potential first overall pick, and thenhad a bad last year and made him
fault really not even bad a year. He had a bad game to start

(33:01):
the year and that just dropped hisstats or dropped his value. I guess
I stock. Stock's the word I'mlooking for, but I don't look everyone's
expecting him to be a complete Nutterdisaster. I'm not expecting that. I'm
expecting him to be a rookie quarteressentially a rookie quarterback. It's a second
year, but hasn't really played muchand have him be okay, And that's

(33:24):
not a big endorsement at all.But what I see is a guy who
could potentially be all right and nota real downgrade of what they had from
quarterback last season, but they hadthe combination, you know, Taylor Heine
getting in there a little bit andmoving some different things around last year.
But I think I think Sam howcould be alright. The Washington defense and

(33:45):
a Ron River I expected to bebetter. Ron River is one of the
better defensive minds in the NFL.They were bad last year. It wasn't
a great They didn't perform as wellas a great units compared to the players
they have on that squad. Iexpected him to be better. I think
Rivera's a good coach. I thinkwith a new ownership there is kind of
a It just gets the dance Ninerstuff out of everyone's heads and now you

(34:06):
can focus on football. They havegood skilled, skilled playmakers on offense,
led by Terry McLaurin. They alsohave like Antonio Gibson, Brian Robinson should
have a full year this year afterhaving the issue last year where we got
shot in a car robbery. SoI fully expect Washington to be competitive and

(34:27):
at six and a half wins theyget the fourth place schedule. I kind
of buy in that they're gonna findtheir way to seven. So I'm gonna
go over on the Washington six anda half. Next, jumping up the
turnpike a little bit, going upto the New York Giants. Giants made
the playoffs last year and won aplayoff game on the road in Minnesota.
I mean, I was a damngood first season for Brian Dable. I'm
not sure you could have asked formuch more out of him. And I

(34:49):
think he's a very solid coach.I know there's a question about that.
I think he is really the bestthing the Giants have going for them.
Honestly, I think him and headcoach is very solid. Daniel Jones is
decent, all right. He's notgreat, but he's not a disaster either.
He's actually a decent quarterback in thisleague. He's a little up and
down, not as consistent as youwould like, but he has potentials to
win you games. He has alsohas potential losing games. But he's not

(35:13):
the pigeonholed on the Giants if that'sif that makes sense, and they got
went out and got him an additionalweapon, Darren Waller at tight end.
I expect a big year out ofhim. I mean, in part because
there's not really maney other weapons inthe passing game for the Giants. It's
been issued for them for a longtime. They've tried to address it.
You know. They signed Kenny Galladaya few years back to a big contract,
and all of a sudden he justfell off the face of the earth.

(35:34):
They've tried to address in the draftwith guys like Wandale Robinson who got
hurt. We'll see they I thinkI think they're passing games a little bit
better because a Waller Sa Kuan iscoming back on a one year deal,
which the offense runs through Sa Kuan. He is a beast of a player,
but every defense also knows that thatruns through Sa Kwan. Their win
totals said, it's seven and ahalf. I think last year they've benefited
a lot, like the rest ofthe NFC East, from a very easy

(35:55):
schedule. So my gun, I'llbe my gut when I look at at
number, says over. But thefact that it's that low, I would
have expected the Giants to be closerwith eight and a half. The fact
that's that low and it's actually theminus one twenty on the under that tells
me the books know something. I'mgoing to stay away from this one.
It's tied but I think the Giantsare not making the playoffs this year.

(36:15):
I think they are, if youmake me call it. I think they
finished last in the division, whichis a little bit of a sneak preview
me. I guess I'm just sayingWashington's ahead of them. But I think
the Giants are probably around a sevenwin team. Maybe it's maybe a six
win team, And it's gonna beweird because I think it's just the schedule.
It's got a little harder, andit's not really that they're a worst

(36:36):
team than last year, but itjust that's the way it's going to reflect
in the record. Jumping up,We'll go to Dallas again. I'm gonna
try to do this unbiased. Dallas, in my opinion, is the biggest
threat to the Eagles in the NFCDOT. I do still see a somewhat
size wile gap between the two,and again that leads the We'll get to
the Eagles in a second. Thebiggest thing I'm curious about with this team

(37:00):
is the coaching, which is aweird thing. But Mike McCarthy has been
the head coach for a little bitbut now is running the offense in partnership
with Brian Schottenheimer as opposed to KellenMoore. Kellen Moore has been one of
the best offense coordinators in the leaguefor the last several years. In my
opinion, I think he's done greatthings that Dallas offense. And now now
he's gone. He's in not SanDiego. He's with the Chargers out there

(37:22):
in La Schottenheimer, he just hasn'thad success in the NFL quite frankly,
you look at everywhere he's been,it's pretty pitiful. The offense on those
teams. I don't know how hekeeps getting a job, but he got
another one here. We'll see theyhave the weapons on offense. I mean
dak did struggle with turnovers last year, that was a problem. Led the
league in turnovers earn picks despite missingfive games, I believe, which is

(37:46):
a pretty pretty bad stat The oldline's a little bit weaker than it's been.
But they did just get back ZachMartin after a holdout. He designed
earlier this week, so I wasa big win for them. They have
Tony Pollard getting the full time atrunning back. You know we've been calling
for that for a while, andCeede Lamb and Brandon Cooks on the outside
are are very solid receivers. Thedefense, I fully buy in. Michael

(38:07):
Parsons to me is going is mypick for defensive player of the year.
Treyvon Diggs ballhawk out there at cornerback. I think the Dallas I think Dallas
is the biggest threat to the Eaglesin the NFC. Their win totals ten
and a half. I think theyget over I think the coaching. I
know, I just ripped on alittle bit. I do think Dallas finishes
over the ten and a half winsand they finished right behind the Eagles in

(38:29):
the division, which jumps us upto the Eagles best team in the division
and really the NFC. In myopinion, I think it's that close.
Again, try doing my best tobe objective, but it's on paper that's
what we're looking at. Folks.Elite quarterback play with Jalen Hurt's best quarterback
in the conference. Skill positions,you know, A J. Brown,
DeVante Smith addressed the running back andMiles Sanders no longer being here, bringing

(38:51):
in which guys like Rashad Penny andI and oh Man, Why am I
brain cramp? DeAndre Swift? Excuseme? Doy who are very talented that
I've hit. It's some injury problems, but have very good upside in my
opinion, offensive line best in theNFL. Defense brings back both cornerbacks to
address a secondary concern with leading theleague in sacks, great defensive line and

(39:13):
rushing, and you know, addressingthat in the draft with two first round
picks Jalen Carter Nolan Smith coming fromGeorgia. I fully buy in this team
will be elite again. Nakoby Deanat linebacker is really the biggest question that
everyone keeps talking about. I thinkNakoby Dean's gonna be fine. I think
his size is obviously a little limiting, but I think it's more limiting for
the longevity of his career. Ithink he will break down, sadly a

(39:35):
little bit easier than we'd like.The guy's smart. We sawly that Georgia
defense he's playing in the SEC.He was undersized there as well. I
fully buy in that he'll be ableto be running this defense and be an
adequate linebacker. I do. They'vealso brought in some other people to address
it, Miles Jack and others.A linebacker to help shure up the position.
Fine all good, bring him more. I buy into Nakoby Dean.

(39:57):
The Eagle's also the best head coachin the division. In my opinion,
I think it's that close. Iget we lost both coordinators, still think
we'll be able to power through that. The record, The schedule is tough.
The schedule is pretty tough, Iwill say that compared to last year,
especially with the first play schedule thisyear, where you got games against
the Chiefs, the Bengals, andthe Bills. That's those are some tough,

(40:20):
tough teams to play. The Eagleswin total set at twelve eleven and
a half. I will go slightlyover. I'm gonna predict the Eagles to
be twelve and five this year.That's my official prediction. I'm gonna go
with that. They are the bestteam. They win the division. They
might not have the best record inthe NFC going into the playoffs, and
middlely, I the other divisions areeasier. I could see someone sneaking up

(40:40):
and getting being a little bit betterin one of those divisions. But I
think the Eagles are still the bestteam in the NFC, even with the
record at the end of the yearwon't necessarily reflect that. So with that,
we're gonna jump over to the theAFC East running a little low one
time here, so we're gonna runthis through pretty quick, starting with New
England fourth and the division. Shockingto say, it doesn't feel right,

(41:01):
but they're projected for six and ahalf wins, and I mean that's the
same as Washington and less than theGiants that we just talked about. I
mean, times have changed. MacJones is not the guy like he doesn't
seem as a guy to me.He keeps getting replaced by Bailey's appy in
and out. I do think theyhad an awful offensive coaching last year,
and now they have Bill O'Brien.I think that is an upgrade for the
offensive side of the ball. MacJones will probably be a little bit better,

(41:23):
but he still doesn't I think he'sa game manager at best. He's
not going to be a guy that'sgoing to super carry you to a bunch
of wins, whereas I think otherteams in this division have those guys at
quarterback that can help drive that.The only reason to believe in them is
Belichick. And each year since Brady'sleft, you'll lose a little bit more

(41:45):
confidence in Belichick. Just by theway it's gone, I don't think this
year is going to turn around.There's six and a half win projection.
I see it as an under.Guess what the fact in New england's that
low. That screams under to me. I am going under in part because
it's what I see there. It'sa bland defense, bland offense, and
the division's really tough. It justis. I think they're gonna get beat
up in this division. So I'mgonna go under six and a half on

(42:05):
the Patriots. Next up Miami twoUS back and seems to be healthy.
That's huge for this offense, andwith him it can be one of the
deadliest in football. Jalen Waddle andTyree kill our elite weapons on the outside,
there's no denying that. And MikeMcDaniel brings a lot of the run
game schemes that Kyle Shanahan runs inSan Francisco, so that I don't think
they'll have a problem running the ball. Despite the fact that they kind of

(42:27):
have the committee back there right now, no super lead rusher, their defense
solid. They've been adding veterans likeJalen Ramsey to help shure that up.
A little bit. So I thinkthey're going to be a very solid team.
Miami could be a Super Bowl winner. They certainly could, but they
could also fall flat if a fewchips don't go their way, especially in
a tough division like this. Theirwin totals that nine and a half.

(42:49):
I am going to slight lean underif you want me to make a call,
but I'm gonna set that one out. I think it's a really good
number. I think about nine tenwins is right exactly where I see the
Miami Dolphins finishing up. Next upand we'll go to Buffalo. One of
the top teams in the AFC forthe past few years, they continue to
fail in the playoffs. They can'tget over that hump to make it to
the super Bowl. But hey,Josh Allen's elite, There's no question about

(43:14):
it. He is, I mean, arm talent wise second to Mahomes,
like that's it. And Patrick Mahomesmight be the best I've ever seen,
so that's high praise. They haveelite weapons on offense, Stefon Diggs one
of the best in the game.James Cook I expect to be a breakout
running back in my opinion. We'lltalk a little fancy next week I'll bring
up cook probably there. Sean McDermottruns a great defense, He's had that

(43:37):
for the past couple of years.But the division's a little bit tougher this
year than it has been, soI think by actually a pretty good margin,
if I'm being honest. So Ithink this year could be a little
bit of a not as smooth sailingfor Buffalo. I'm being honest. There
wind total set at ten and ahalf, playing a first pillot schedule.
They have games on the road,all these on the road Chiefs, Bengals,

(43:57):
Eagles, Chargers. Those are fourtough road games. And then then
you got the tough division where youhave the Jets in Miami and hell,
New England's not gonna be easy wins. Even though I just ripped them a
little bit, I'm gonna go underten and a half wins in Buffalo.
I think it's more likely they're anine and eight or ten and seven team
than we've seen the you know,twelve thirteen wins in the past couple of

(44:19):
years. That's not to rip intoBuffalo. I think Josh Allen still Lady
might be the MVP, But yeah, I could see this being a down
year, a little bit up thereand up in the greater New York area,
and speaking in New York. Lastly, last team we're gonna talking about
today, the New York Jets.I'll say it. I expect the Jets
to win this division. You canget that. At plus two seventy,
they're projected win their win total goinginto the season's nine and a half.

(44:40):
I'm gonna go over on that.Robert Sala's defense has been elite. There's
no question that they have had anelite defense for really the last couple of
years. And no team in theNFL at a better upgrade this offense on
offense this offseason on offense than theNew York Jets. Trading in Aaron getting
Aaron Rodgers and replacing Zach Wilson slashMike White. It's the biggest upgrade in

(45:04):
the Lake. I know Rodgers isa little bit controversial, and I get
it. I would have really beenfrustrated with him when I was a Packers
fan. I fully get that,but he seems invested in the Jets success.
And if Rogers actually cares about somethingand is invested, we've seen what
the guy can do. It's wontwo of the last three MVPs. They
have young talent on both sides ofthe ball, and Sauce Gardener like a

(45:25):
cornerback, Garret Wilson a wide receiver, and others sprinkled throughout this Jets team's
elite. I really think the Jetsare going to be They're not a surprise
because people are on them. Butsome people who haven't bought in yet,
I think, get ready to buyin because I think the Jets are in
for a fantastic season. I buyinto this team. I have a Super
Bowl ticket, I have Division tickets, I have win Total tickets. I

(45:46):
am in on the New York Jetsto have a fantastic year this season.
That's gonna do it for us.We're running up against time. As always,
I'm Tim O'Keefe following me at TKI wonder score picks. We'll be
back with another ball's Bats and betsnext week. Listen all week long and
all everything leading up to NFL andcollege football season here on the Gambler.

(46:06):
Great content everywhere that you look orlisten to, I guess I should say,
and just stay tuned. We'll beback talk soon.