Balls, Bats, and Bets -- 8/25/23

Tim O'Keefe talks MLB, NFL, and more!

Episode Transcript

(00:00):
For national winners. From a localperspective, you're in the right place.
It's Balls, Bats and Bets withTim o'keee right here on the Gambler.
We finally made it, everyone,We finally freaking made it. Welcome into
another episode of Balls, Bats andBets. And I'm not saying we made
it to another beautiful Friday night wherey'all I'm back with you. But we

(00:22):
made it to football season. We'vemade it into the playoff run for baseball,
We've made it into such a greattime of the year. I'm just
excited. I'm sure all you guysare as well. Obviously, we're doing
football prep and baseball coverage all summerlong, but it's it's that time.
It feels real. It's week zeroof college footballs here. I love the

(00:43):
It's so stupid, but the weekzero term is just so stupid to me,
but it's so fun. Several gamesthis weekend. I'm gonna be talking
to you about some picks for thatcoming up a little bit later. But
man, I am just so soexcited for all of it to get going
again. We have a lot tocover tonight, but we're gonna start off

(01:03):
with where we've been going recently,and that's baseball. So the Phillies have
continued playing just really phenomenal ball.Like I'm I'm very happy with where this
team's at. I've I've shared thiswith you guys before. I'm kind of
in it's lockdown mode. I look, maybe maybe you can call me too
relaxed, and that's fine, that'sfair. If you want to call me

(01:23):
out for that, that's okay.Everyone's lot to have their own opinion.
I'm locked in to the Phillies arethe number one wild card. Like I
am struggling. I think it's awell, it's a term in non zero.
There's a wait, there's a nonsNo, there's a zero. Well,
what everyone must stop doing math inmy head, but it's a ridiculous

(01:45):
guaranteed to me at this point,I am struggling to see how this team
we're too much, way, moretalented than every other team that we're competing
with for that slot. We're gettinghot at the right time. Trey Turner
is turning into the player that wesigned up for, which I mean,
hey, if you were going tohave him do it, would you rather
beginning of the year, end ofthe year. I'd rather end of the
year. Obviously full year is theright answer, but hey, take we

(02:07):
can get he's playing phenomenal ball.To walk off win on Tuesday just absolutely
fantastic. Maybe even more importantly,I think you can make an argument Bryce
Harper's power is back. Now thatis a monster importance to them because Bryce
obviously the driver of this team.We saw it through last year's playoff run,

(02:30):
and we've seen it in you know, his MVP season a couple of
years back. He's the backbone ofthe team. So with his power being
back that, you know, wekind of got robbed of an all time
moment on Wednesday when he had thatthree run home run to tie it in
a ninth and you know, we'relosing the tenth and that's all right,
Hey no, you're not gonna winthem all against the Giants there, but
that was an all time moment.And the stars are just aligning for this

(02:51):
team right now, like it's it'sexactly where you want them to be.
We're going in the right there.I'm all right, fine, could you
say you want him at the topof the division. Okay, I'll back
off. I guess a little biton exactly where I wanted would be,
but compared to where we were amonth ago, two months ago, I'm
ecstatic. I know it's only threegames that we're up, but I'm just
not threatened by anyone behind us,and that leads me into now I'm more

(03:13):
or less watching those teams that I'mjust trying to figure out who's gonna get
that second wildcard slot and gonna comehere for three games or two or three
games in October for the Wildcard series, which will be Insistens Bankpark, assuming
the Phillies hold onto that number onewildcard seed. And really I'm not thrown
by any team. I think theReds are my ideal matchup. I mean,
they're young, they're fun, butI don't not think they're ready to

(03:34):
compete really deep, but make adeep October run. They're pitching really doesn't
scare me. I think they're bestguy is probably Hunter Green, who's been
injured and he's coming back a littlebit late, and he's got some really
good armed talent. But the restof that lineup is fun and young.
They're only vet really that I respectis Joey Vado, and he's on the

(03:54):
literally the last year of his career. I think he's about to be done,
so I'm not really concerned about theReds. That's my easiest matchup.
I'll feel good at against the Giantsand the Diamondbacks as well. The only
team that gives me like slight scarestupidly is the Marlins, and it's only
because we've struggled against the Marlins historicallyin these weird situations when the games matters.
Still not scared of them. Imean, they have young pitching Sandy

(04:15):
all Kintar is very good, butwe've honestly had Sandy's numbers, so I'm
not overly scared of them. SoYeah, the Phillies are in absolutely the
right spot and there's nothing I canwant better from this team right now.
I know some people are complaining aboutthe Shoreber lead off thing. I'm not
messing with anything this team. We'replaying too well that you win with him
there. Whether his stats look goodin that slot, I get it.

(04:39):
It's frustrating, but I'm not messingwith this. He's Harper as I want
to say. It's Harper is thedo as I do leader. I think
he's a little quieter in the clubhouse. It's not quiet, but you know,
he's not the verbal leader. He'sthe do as I do. He
shows you what to do. Shoreberis a little bit more of the verbal
leader. And that's like he's beenthere before, right, He's one World
Series. I think he has two. I think yeah, I think he

(05:00):
has the one in Boston, onein Chicago. And the guy, the
guy gets it done. So yeah, so I'm gonna leave him there.
And this team is exactly where Iwant them to be. Keep playing while
you got a series against the Cardinals, who are just a disaster this year.
Surprisingly, honestly, I'm a littlesurprised at how bad they are,
but it is what it is.I did have someone ask me a question

(05:21):
recently that I thought was interesting,and it was, is this the most
likable Phillies team we had? We'vehad? And look, for me,
the only two options really would bethis team like, and by this team
we're talking ers like last year wouldcount this year counts, and then the
two thousand, you know, seventhrough eleven run like those are the teams

(05:42):
that I'm thinking of here. Andmy initial gut reaction was, now,
I mean that twenty eight team withUtly Rollins, Howard, so many other
just great names coming out of theirhammeles. Jamie Moyer again, it's just
stupid huge. I don't know whyJamie came to my head there early,
but you guys get what I'm saying. There's so much fun personalities there and

(06:04):
really loved it and it was agreat team. It was a great era.
And that's still gonna be my answer, but I'll admit I did get
an argument for this era, andthey do have a great combination of just
experienced guys that play the game theright way, like Bryce Harper just everything
on every play, which is Harper'sthe utly of this era, if that
makes sense, Like that's just whathe is like personality was I don't think

(06:26):
he says too much. When hedoes speak, I think he says exactly
the right things, like he getsthe crowd based pumped up behind him,
gets them behind this team, whichis similar to Outly in my mind,
Ali didn't speak as much. Aliwas even more quiet than Harper. But
then you got guys like Schwarber whoare the verbal leader, and you have
fun guys like a Bryson Stott andBrandon Marsh that are just like the Levity

(06:48):
guys. The class clowns if youwill, and you need them too.
And even look look at Reese Hoskins. Reese Hoskins is not played this season,
and yet he's still there every day, big part of the club.
Else like he's just here because heloves it. And those guys truly do
love each other in the locker room. I do get that vibe, and
I believe that. So I thinkthis error is really fun too. I'm

(07:09):
going to still lean with the twothousand and eight to two thousand, you
know, nine, ten, elevenera, but it's definitely close. I
see the argument for sure, soI'm gonna go two thousand and eight.
But hey, if you like thiserror better, more power to you.
All good stuff, no wrong answers. The next part, I want to
talk into a couple like these baseballtopics that were going around recently. Two

(07:33):
stories outside of the Phillies. I'mgonna start with the one that's probably a
little more under the radar. StevenStraussberg retired the most hyped up pitching prospect.
I can remember number one overall pickin I think it was two thousand
and nine for the Nationals, andthere was just so much hype around that
guy. I mean it was youknew before the draft even happened. It's

(07:57):
actually coincidental MLB network launches that's ayear, so obviously they're hyping up the
draft, and maybe that led tosome of this, but man, it
was all about Strasburg, Like youknew that guy was going to be a
stud and just have electric stuff.The best pitching debut that I can honestly
remember, quite frankly comes up Faceof the Pirates. I remember watching this
and just absolutely dominant, complete dominants, fourteen strikeouts, seven innings, two

(08:22):
ur and runs, and you couldjust see, men, this guy's got
something special, like just electric stuff. The fastball flying up their high nineties
with movement, just table falls outfrom under a curveball. The guys has
had no chance about against, Iguess I should say. And he was

(08:43):
absolutely absolutely dominant. And he's aguy that and again he's in our division,
so you don't want to say Iwanted to see him succeed that much,
because I mean, it's bad newsfor the Phillies, but I always
liked watching him pitch, just byhis absolute stuff. Like look, when
I was growing up, I wasa pitcher, so I have an appreciation

(09:03):
for it of just what this guycan do. And man, he was
just nasty there. I don't knowif I mean there's there are other words
you can do nasty, filthy,disgusting, like there was no chance that
hitters had against some of these pitchesand Strasburg. I think lived up to
the hype. I think he livedup to number one overall pick. You
can't control health, you just can't. It sucks. I think he's a

(09:26):
guy that if he had stayed healthyfor his whole career, hall of Famer.
I mean, if I take hisstats and elongate them, and honestly,
they'd probably a little bit better ifhe wasn't constantly dealing with injuries,
I think he would have been aHall of Famer. Unfortunately, the health
health part of it is the secondpart of that. He's not going to
make the Hall of Fame. He'llbe a guy that you get on the
ballot for a year and then he'sgone. It didn't stay healthy long enough,

(09:50):
but had did help those net theNationals put together that World Series run
World Series MVP from twenty nineteen,which was really the last time we fully
saw his capabilities, and hey,it's he had a great career, made
a ton of money. Man,that last contract was a disaster for the
Nats. Made a ton of money. Good for him, go off into

(10:11):
the sunset. Look, he kindof did it all. He didn't want
to cy young, but had eliteseasons, made several All Star Games,
won a World Series. Guys wouldsign up for that in a heartbeat,
a lot of guys. So I'mgratiam. I just wanted to bring that
up because he was like, he'slike everyone has like those super hyped up
prospects, like we all think Lebron, right, you think Andrew Luck.

(10:33):
Strassburg was the pitching equivalent of that. He was Baseball doesn't get as much
hype as football and basketball from notbecause the draft they go instantly onto the
teams. That's not how it goesin baseball. To Strasburg only spent like
a maybe a under a year ortwo under a year in the minors.
It's still not that instant gratification.But Strassburg was really the pitching version of

(10:54):
that, followed by Bryce Harper.They draft the next year there in Washington,
and that was the next That's themost hyped player, well one of
the most type player there. There'sbeen a couple of other guys I could
also say right there for hitters wise, but Strasburg was the most type pitcher.
I only there's a doubt about that. Next up show. Hey,

(11:16):
I've got a feel for him.U SEL's are done pitching for the year.
Phillies played them next week. Heshould still be hitting, that's all
the reports. So you'll still getto see him if you're going down to
the ballpark to watch him there.But yeah, I mean it sucks because
he might need Tommy John surgery.My personal opinion like he's going to keep
hitting in the meantime while they're evaluatingthis, but the moment it's determined he

(11:39):
needs Tommy John, I could easilysee him just going under and saying,
hey, I'm want to start thisprocess. And it is what it is.
It's weird. It's not his fault. Obviously, it might have cost
him like one hundred million dollars.The problem is, I think he's still
going to get the largest contract inbaseball history. It's just instead of seven
fifty now it might be six fiftyor six hundred, which is again,

(12:01):
no one's doing any pity parties forShowheyotani. The man is unicorn, that's
all. Yeah, Like, there'sso many words you can use to describe
him, but I mean, Showhyis the best player in the league.
He's the best hitter in the leagueright now, and then he's a top
ten pitcher. He's just absolutely elite. Yeah, you don't know what else

(12:22):
to say except it sucks. TheAngels absolutely botched the situation. They obviously
should have traded him. They try, if you're an Angels fan, they
tried. It's frustrating, but theydid try to keep him by making the
playoffs. They just didn't go anywhere. So we'll see. I still think
Showhey's going to get a ridiculously largedeal, which isn't breaking news. Everyone

(12:45):
knows that. I think you couldstop playing right now for the rest of
the season still win a lm VP. I truly believe that. And we'll
see. We'll see what happens.My gut is I'll make my official show
Hey prediction. Now, why not. I think you go to the Dodgers.
It's gonna be upwards a six hundred, seven hundred million, and that's
just where we're gonna end up.And he might have been at seven hundred

(13:05):
to eight hundred had he not hadthis injury. But we'll see in monitor.
Hopefully he can come back and bejust as dominant, because everyone appreciate
this while we're seeing it, becausewe have no idea when this is going
to happen again, and it's anif it's going to happen again with someone
being able to do what Shoheotani doeson both the pitching on the pitching mound
and in the batter's box. Allright, with that, we're gonna take

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a quick break. We'll come back. We're going to talk through week zero
college football. It's football the restof the show, giving out college picks,
giving out some NFL futures picks comingup too. So yeah, we'll
be right back. We got along night ahead of us on Ball's bets
and bets A stick with us righthere, the gamb Line Phillies Home for

(13:46):
all things sports gambling. All right, I've been waiting for this for a
long long time, but we areback. It's college football Week zero,
and we have picks. There's nota ton of games, not a full
slate by any means. I don'tcome in week one the following weekend with
Labor Day, but everyone college footballis back, and I am ready to

(14:13):
give out picks. I've been lookingat the board. I've been over analyzing
Week zero, which, hey,you know, you gotta do what you
gotta do. I We've all beenlooking at Week zero for probably six months
at this point, But here weare, and I'm just gonna dive right
in because I can't. I amso happy we're back at this time of
the year. So first up,I'm gonna go with the I'll call it

(14:33):
highest profile game of Week zero,Notre Dame Navy. Notre Dame a twenty
point favorite, and I expect NotreDame to play really well in this game.
I think the fact that this isearly in the year, like well,
by early year, it's been likefirst week. I think that's a
problem for Navy. I think partof Navies, like i'll call it charms

(14:54):
slash edge, is that when youthrow them in the middle of a schedule,
it's like it's such a different styleof how they play X y Z.
I know that Navy does have anew coach. I believe they're mixing
up a few things, trying tothrow the ball a little bit more,
but they're still gonna be a runfirst team, you know that, and
I Notre Dame has not. They'vebeen able to prep for this now for

(15:16):
over months, right like the NewNavy's Week one or excuse me, week
zero, and I expect Notre Dameto be on top of this. Historically,
the series has been high scoring thelast seven out of last ten going
into the over these teams play everyyear. Three of the last four times
that Notre Dame has been a twentypoint favorite, just overall, not specifically
against Navy, they've gotten over thethirty five point mark. So that's that's

(15:39):
where I'm going here. I expectNotre Dame's offense to kind of dominate this
game. Quite frankly, I don'tthink Navy's defense is gonna hold up.
Well. I am going to golook at the team total. Actually,
all three of my picks today areteam totals. Is the heads up?
Notre Dame's team total sitting at thirtyfour and a half. We're gonna fire
on that. Over I fully expectSam Hartman debuting for the Irish here,

(16:02):
coming off coming over from Wake Forest, where he had a spectacular career for
the Demon Deacons. Honestly, andI expect Notre Dame to just really kind
of dominate this game overall. Ilike the over in the game as well.
I know Mark Henry Juniors talked aboutthat one that he really likes that,
and I liked that play too.I'm just specifically going to isolate on
Notre Dame going over the thirty fourand a half where I think they're really
going to put up a pretty strongnumber to start the year, over the

(16:25):
midshipment from Navy. The next playI got will jump into Vanderbilt. Vanderbilt
versus Hawaii, I guess I shouldsay, but I'm looking at the Vanderbilt
side here. Last year these teamsmet in opening week first time ever in
history, and men Vanderbilt dominated.You don't get to say that very much
with them being you know, theI got what's a word I can say,

(16:48):
the baby brothers. Let's say thatthe baby brothers of the SEC.
But they sure took it out onthe Rainbow Warriors last year sixty six to
ten. Vanderbil built. They don'tget a lot of opportunities to beat up
on teams just quite frankly, wherethey're going to the SEC. They're usually
on the other end of that,they're they're on the receiving end getting beat
up. Last year was in Hawaii, this year it's in Nashville. I

(17:12):
expect a somewhat similar result if I'mbeing honest. Overall, I think Vanderbilt
is going to try to rub itin show. Hey, this is where
they're on TV. Like, honestly, it's stupid, but this is kind
of like a Vanderbilt like showcase asthey're trying to recruit, like they're the
prime game on ESPN or whatever stationhas it. Probably is ESPN, I'm

(17:33):
not even sure whatever game has theSaturday night games under the USC games on
the PAC twelve network. We'll diveover to that one in a second.
But this is gonna be the mainpublic game. So this is a showcase
for hinderbuilt quite frankly, and we'llsee. I think they're I think they're
gonna utilize it. I think they'regonna beat up on them. I think
it's gonna be they're gonna get beatup on all year. I think they're

(17:53):
gonna use this as there, Hey, we can do this too to show
some sort of recruiting asp back thatthey're not a complete disaster when traditionally that's
what Vanderbilt Vanderbilt football is. SoI'm gonna go over Vanderbilt thirty six and
a half points. I think they'rejust gonna I think they're gonna dominate it.
And also Hawaii's air raid attack underTimmy Chang, the new new work

(18:15):
coach out here out there, Ithink he was there last year as well.
It slows down the clock right becauseHawaii's thrown it all the time.
I mean, even if they aremaking progress down the field, it's deep
plays and the balls getting back toVanderbilt. Hand's quicker. I don't trust
to Whi's defense to really stop anybody. Say, at Vanderbilt over thirty six
and a half points. Team totalis gonna be my next play. Lastly,

(18:38):
gonna take a look at USC andSan Jose State Trojan's team total forty
eight and a half points. Actually, no, let me don't check.
That was a forty eight and ahalf or forty nine and a half.
Hold please hold, please, let'ssee it was yeah, forty eight and
a half. We got that right, forty eight and a half. Obviously,

(19:00):
the Trojans offense is elite. Itis I'm not trying to say it's
not. They are fantastic Caleb WilliamsHeisman winner. We know they have the
ability to put up a lot ofpoints. That being said, they only
hit that number twice last year.Forty eight and a half they did hit
in Week one, just per se. Just saying they hit sixty mark in
Week one last year was not againstSan Jose State, and they hit one

(19:22):
other time last season. Again,the offense was fantastic. They were putting
up consistently in the thirties forties.They're very good offense, but they only
hit forty eight and a half twicelast year. San Jose State, on
the other hand, they won thewestern side of the Mountain West last year.
Again, I'm not trying to saythat San Jose State is gonna like
fight to win this game. I'mnot. What I'm telling you is San
Jose State is not a complete mess. Their defense also last season only allowed

(19:47):
thirty points one time. All yearlong, they allowed thirty points one time.
I think they're gonna try to containthe game, keep themselves in it,
and you're gonna do that by runningthe ball, trying to keep USC's
offense off the field, and itkeeps them in there. I kind of
like the thirty and a half pointswith San Jose State as a play,
but on my official play, I'mgonna go USC under forty eight and a
half team total points because I reallydo see that as just a little bit

(20:10):
too high. The San Jose defenseis here to wake up, show up,
and I expect them to at leasthang in it a little bit and
not just get completely torched day andday out. So there's a first picks
of the year. Gotta love it. Gotta love it. Just recapping over
thirty four and a half points forNotre Dame team total, over Vanderbilt thirty

(20:33):
six and a half points team total, and under USC forty eight and a
half points team total again, allgames on Saturday. Excited, it's back.
Let's start the year off right.Next, I want to dive in
I think I mentioned earlier We're gotto dive into some fantasy football, and
just now I'm not gonna I'm notgonna give you the full breakdown. That's
not what I do. We gotother guys who got Roy Burton here on

(20:56):
the station. We got a lotof guys doing fantasy. I'm not gonna
give you some whole long school breakdown. I'm not gonna do a full episode,
but i want to talk through afew guys that I like and a
few guys I hate hate for Fantasyobviously, so diving in, I want
to first talk about how you handlelike a Jonathan Taylor and Josh Jacobs situation,

(21:17):
because that those are the two biggestheadlines. I got my draft coming
up tomorrow on Saturday night. I'mreally excited having that come in. And
here's here's my honest opinion. It'snot worth it to draft Jonathan Taylor or
Josh Jacobs where they're going right now, So I'm gonna stand. Everything I
speak to here is also standard scoring. I know a lot of people love
PPR. I'm a standard guy.That's what I got our Gambler Station draft

(21:41):
on Tuesday's PPR. I think it'shalf point PPR, so I'll have to
make some slight adjustments, but reallyall my points and I'm about to make
for these guys, they're all stayingthe same. And also, I'm definitely
excited for that Gambler draftbably pumped upreal QUI because yeah, we're gonna have
some live streams going. I'm gonnabe drafting live from the Phillies game,
which is just gonna be weird,gonna be interesting. About other guys,
Mark Han releading it as commissioner obviously, Sean Brace, John Jansen, Joe

(22:03):
Tanzi, Uh, Mike Powers,like so many awesome guys, Roy Burton,
I think I mentioned earlier, alot of awesome guys. The Liberty
Line guys are in there. It'sgonna be fun. It's gonna be a
blast. Check that out. Butfor talking about I'll give away a little
couple strategy points. That's fine withme. I don't care. So Jonathan
Taylor and Josh Jacobs, they're bothright now for standard going end of the

(22:29):
second round or like towards end thesecond round, early third, I'm not
taking them there. I'm just not. There's too many variables one the contracts,
which hey, that's that's a bigthing on its own right, And
with Taylor obviously being mad now ableto seek a trade, Josh Jacobs still
hasn't shown up yet, at leastto my knowledge, hasn't shown up at
all. Uh. That's those aremajor concerns, like I can't draft a

(22:52):
guy that's going through that and wastethat high draft capital. Now, look,
they start to slip in your draft, you get me to the third
fourth, all right, there mightbe that upside might be worth it,
but not where they're currently going.I just can't take. And also both
have injury concerns for me too.Taylor had an injury all last year and
he's apparently right now not practicing becauseof an injury. Josh Jacobs had more
touches, I believe, than anybodylast year, and that doesn't usually hold

(23:15):
up all for running backs. Andalso coming in late to camp can spark
injuries. It's just a lot ofmess. It's not worth it for me.
I'm not touching Jonathan Taylor or JoshJacobs in this situation. Next,
we'll start off with a couple ofplayers I really like. Give you a
one early guy, one mid roundguy, and one late guy. Early
round pick Bijan Robinson. I likeBijean a lot. I think there's a

(23:40):
case to be made he can gotop five. I'd probably take him six
or seventh overall. But that man'sgonna have a huge role in Atlanta.
He really is. He's going tobe a feature back, and those just
don't exist in a lot of placesanymore. But he's gonna be a three
down back that is running the ball, catching the ball, doing everything for
that offense. Been extremely high draftcapital on him. When teams spend high

(24:03):
draft capital and running back, traditionallythey get a lot of volume and it
works out, especially in year one. I mean you can think, you
think to the Christian McCaffrey's, tothe Zeke Elliot's, even guys like Leonard
Fournette is year one it was decent. He was pretty solid at decent pick.
And then look at guys like I'llbring up Trent Richardson. Trent Richardson's
rookie season was a beast. Itwas fantastic. I had Trent. It

(24:25):
goes downhill after that. But again, these guys are going to get the
ball if they're picked that early.Bijon is extremely talented. Sa Quan another
one. He's like, say,Juan, honest, That's why that just
came to my head. I thinkhe is going to be a absolute stud
mid round pick. I'm gonna lookat tight end and we'll talk about Darren
Waller, so former Raider, nowhe's on the Giants. He's the main

(24:48):
name in the passing game. Forthe Giants. If I'm not counting sa
Quan, Brian Dable is a reallygood offensive mind. He went out and
got Darren Waller to be that mainweapon on offense. I'd always listened as
a tight end. He's the numberone receiver the Giants. There's just no
one else there that I trust inthat offense. Daniel Jones I said it
last week. He's not terrible.He's not great, but he's not terrible.

(25:08):
I think he's gonna be able toget the ball downfield now that he
has a main target there in DarrenWaller. I think Waller can finishes the
tight end too, really easily.I think he might even be able to
finish with the tight end one ifKelsey is a little bit of a down
year and he's gonna be the primarytarget in the Giants passing game. In
a passing him that's been barren ofweapons for years, I expect them to
utilize them. So I am allin on Darren Waller this year. Love

(25:30):
getting him round. I think it'sthe fourth fifth round. That's where I'm
pulling the trigger on Darren Waller.Late round guy like must stick in the
NFC East to actually John Dotson,second year receiver for the Commanders, showed
flashes last year, has the abilityto get to the end zone. Terry
McLaurin is actually now nursing an injury. He might play Week one, but

(25:51):
first few weeks. Even if heplays, he's not gonna be one hundred
percent New quarterbacks Sam How I thinkhe's gonna air it ahead a little bit
more. That's what Sam How didin college. We'll see if it works
in the end, fell but that'sgonna provide opportunities for Dotson. He was
He was a sixteenth pick overall inlast year's draft, and I'm expecting to
take a huge step forward this year. Again, look at these other receivers

(26:11):
that were picked around him. Youknow, Garrett Wilson, Chris Olavy,
these guys are top household names.I get Dotson was picked right around there.
He has talent. He is veryHe's a very talented receiver, and
I think it's gonna show up thisyear. I like getting him late in
drafts if you can get snag himplayers. I don't like Tony Pollard.

(26:32):
I know a lot of people areon the Tony Pollard bandwagon, and I
see what they see to an extent, but I think they're missing out on
a few key points. New offense. Kellen Moore's not the offense coordinary anymore.
Now it's being run by Mike McCarthyand Brian Schottneiber. Those names should
not inspire confidence in you the howdo I put it? Pollard's small.

(26:52):
He's not the size of a traditionalthree down back. I know that he's
an efficiency darling for the last coupleof years playing behind Z. I don't
know that he's gonna I think there'sinjury concern there of him not being able
to hold up and carry this fullworkload. And then all of a sudden
you end up in a running backcommittee, which is a lot less attractive,
especially behind an offensive line that keepsshowing more and more holes. Pollard's
going in some drafts I've seen latefirst, early second, early seconds.

(27:17):
I guess the more usual answer tothat. But I'm not touching him.
I don't buy into the Tony pollI think he's a good player for the
Cowboys. He's a good player.I don't think fancy wise you're gonna get
that type of return. I thinkthat's just too much that you're asking for.
There another player I love or Idon't like. Excuse me, Deebo.
Samuel going right now late second round. Debo is an elite talent.

(27:38):
I don't want to say that he'snot. He is. He has elite
talent. But there's a lot ofmouse to feed in San fran now,
there really are, and the onlyone I trust to be fully fed is
McCaffrey. Like, I buy thathe's going to get his I don't think
the QB situations helping brock Purdy isnot. I see it more helping out
like a Kiddle slash McCaffrey than Debowith way breakaway speed. Like I don't

(28:02):
think brock Purdy's hurling it down fieldof Debo as much as some of their
past quarterbacks, like even even Garoppolo. Honestly, quite frankly, Sam's going
late second round. It's too highfor me. It's and he had injury
issues last year as well, andnow piling on that with the volume concerns.
Again, I'm not saying he's abad player. He's not. I
think second rounds a little too earlyfor me. I see him is more
late, third, early fourth.Lamar Jackson's gonna be the last time I'm

(28:26):
want to talk about, and again, it depending on how far he falls.
Because everyone's drafts with quarterbacks can godifferent ways. I know that,
so I'm speaking towards what the averagedraft positions are, and right now it
seems like he's going kind of latefourth to fifth, maybe sixth valling.
It depends on what's site you're using. Jackson has not stayed healthy for multiple

(28:48):
seasons. He's not. I knowhe's got paid and that's great for the
Ravens. I think he's a reallygood player for the Ravens, of course,
but he hasn't stayed healthy in thepast couple of years. That scares
me off a little bit. Theoffense is getting reworked. They brought in
Toddmunkin and run it. I thinkit's going to mean less running for Lamar
Jackson, which we know is hisfantasy strength. I'd rather wait towards like

(29:08):
a Justin Fields if you really wantthe running quarterback. Or I also feel
safer with a Justin Herbert or TrevorLawrence than I do with Jackson. Again,
if if it falls a little bitJackson does. If he falls a
little bit, I say, excuseme. If he falls a little bit.
You know, if I can getJackson in the sixth he does have
QB one upside. I will saythat if he does, if he does

(29:30):
do full run game and he's healthyfor seventeen games, I think that you're
banking on a little too much there. So not saying he's all I do,
not draftless, but at his currentADP, I'm not going to be
taking him either. You've got tobe filling yourself up with running backs,
receiver, tight end at that point, I'd much rather have a Darren Waller
than I would have Lamar Jackson thisseason. All right, I want to
take a quick break way back forour third segment right after this spreads totals

(29:55):
and all the prop that's in between. It's the Gambler. Welcome back everyone.
One third final segment here tonight.Got some NFL futures plays where I
see a lot of value. Wegot some longer shots here tonight. We're
not here to go with the favorites. We're not here to you know,
just play something safe. When you'regoing futures, you gotta you gotta put
your money where your mouth is andtake somebody. It's gonna give you a

(30:18):
lot of payoff, and I gotplenty of those here for you tonight.
But and then after that, we'reof course going to the annual tradition that
every Eagles fan has to do.Run through the schedule, call your wins
and losses, and then see whatsee what happens. Then of course I'll
give you my super Bowl prediction.This maybe my last show before the NFL
season starts. We have to makethe official super Bowl call. We're gonna

(30:41):
start with some NFL Awards bets thatI'm really liking. Starting off with MVP.
I got two guys that I reallyI can make a case for to
an MVP that are longer shots.One I like a little bit more than
the other, but hey, theother guys, the odds are a little
bit longer. Starting off with theguy that thinks on more people's radars,
Trevor Lawrence. Again, we know, we know the story. Former number

(31:04):
one overall pick got ruined by UrbanMeyers rookie season, and then last season
bounced back. It looked very solid, led the Jags to the playoffs.
I think Jacksonville's offense was good lastyear and this year I think it's gonna
be elite. Calvin Ridley coming backagain. He hasn't played in a couple
of years. But I'm buying inthat that guy's going to be a stud.
Everything you're hearing out of camp isthat he just looks amazing, and

(31:25):
that's another weapon for Trevor Lawrence todominate with. I think they're going to
put up a ton of points.They also got help on the old line
and that, you know, thisis good news for Lawrence. Their defense
not great. They're gonna end upin shootouts. He's not going to be
running the ball at the end ofthe games as much as some of the
other quarterbacks are, which means he'sgonna put up bigger stats. I think
Trevor Lawrence is going to have aphenomenal season. You know, John Jansen's

(31:48):
favorite man in the NFL, whichhe rightfully so again, I'm telling you
I'd like his ticket at fifteen toone to win MVP. I am really
buying in that this could be theTrevor Lawrence. I don't know if breakouts
the right works. Last year isprobably a breakout, but this is the
Hey I'm here with, I'm oneof the elites, and I think he
has a fantastic year. This year. So Trevor Lawrence at fifteen to one
is my first MVP play, thesecond one. Hear me out, it's

(32:13):
fifty to one. Okay, fiftyto one. No one if anyone tells
you they expect a fifty to onetwo hit, like they're lying to you.
But what I can tell you is, I think this guy is going
to be a lot closer than fiftyto one. And who knows it might
happen because I can see the story, right. You have to be able
to tell yourself the story and howit happens. And I can see that

(32:34):
that guy is Derek Carr. DerekCarr, former Raider almost a decade in
Vegas Slash Oakland comes over to NewOrleans. Now, New Orleans has very
solid offensive weapons. They do.Chris Olavia to me is an absolute elite
receiver already this year two, Ithink that guy's phenomenal. Alan Kamara will
be back after a suspension. Look, Michael Thomas is still there. We'll

(32:57):
see if he has anything left inthe tank. But New Orleans with better
quarterback play is going to have adecent offense. We know they also have
an elite defense. So my storyfor how Derek Carr gets there. He
just has to be very good,right, He has to be very good
obviously to win an MVP. Imost times you'd say it to be great.
I don't think so. I thinkhe has to be very good.
He has to be a very solidquarterback, high touchdown, low turnover ratio,

(33:22):
and they need to win games.And I think New Orleans, if
you remember we talked about the NFCSouth a few weeks back, I can
see New Orleans going like thirteen andit would it be thirteen and four.
I really could. Like their divisionis so easy, their schedule is very
easy, and with probably the best. Yeah, I would say, let's
see who else. I was gonnasay, best quarterback in the division.

(33:42):
So they got Baker in Tampa,They've got Desmond Writer in Atlanta, and
Bryce Young in CAROLINEA Bryce Young obviouslyrookie. We don't know what we're getting.
I think Derek car is the bestquarterback in the division for this season
at least, and I think they'regonna win a lot of games. I
buy into New Orleans being a verysolid team. And if New Orleans somehow
ends up getting the number one seein the NFC and Derek Carr is you
know, I'll call it. Let'ssay ken Derek Carr put up a thirty

(34:06):
and five season. I think hecould because he can play conservatively with that
great defense down New Orleans. Ithink it's in the realm. Again,
it's fifty to one. I'm justsaying it's worth a shot, worth a
shot. Throw a couple of shekelson there. Next up, going coach
of the Year, guy that's alreadywon a Super Bowl. He's not an

(34:28):
old head whatsoever, so it's notall I'm talking about an ancient super Bowl.
Sean mcvay' is at thirty to one. I think most people, myself
included, still think Sean mcvay's anelite head coach. At least I am
convinced it. I think he isa top five coach in the league.
If not, there's a case hemade. I think he's the top.
I think Sean McVay is fantastic atwhat he does. The roster around him

(34:49):
has, but it just wasn't therelast year. Stafford got hurt, Cooper
Cup got hurt. Now they've tradedJalen Ramsey like that. There's a lot
of tougher storylines with the roster forl But this year again, I think,
you guys know, I'm a littlehigher on the Rams than most.
I think they could bounce back ifyou get a healthy Stafford and cup Aaron
Donald's still in that defense, that'sgonna be a decent defense. Sean McVeigh

(35:09):
is an elite coach and play caller. I buy in that they could be
decent. I think there's a slimchance they can win the NFC West.
I'm not again. We'll talk aboutthat actually in a second, because that's
another play I like. And ifMatthew Stafford's healthy, I think they could
be very solid. If they makethe playoffs after what happened last year,
mcvayh at thirty to one's gonna belooking very very good come there, and

(35:35):
I'm banking it on a better yearfrom the Rams. I think you have.
They'd have to make the playoffs justto happen. But if they make
the playoffs after what happened last year, I think he has it. Of
course, Look, there's other storylinesout there we don't know, but that's
going to be a very very heftything to take away from him if they
do end up winning. That winningthe division. We're just making the playoffs.

(35:57):
So with McVay thirty to one,that's my coach of the year Offensive
Player of the Year. You knowI'm gonna you're gonna say, well,
wait, Tim, I thought yousaid long shots. Only my Offensive Player
of the Year pick is Patrick Mahomes. He's at thirty to one for Offensive
Player of the Year. Generally,this award, especially more recently, has
been going towards wide receivers and runningbacks, but we've also had some recently
phenomenal seasons out of wide receiver runningbacks. Justin Jefferson last year, elite

(36:22):
year before that, Cooper Cup,Derrick Henry a few years back running the
ball. I think it was MichaelThomas before that. They have had some
elite guys like having these breakout years. But what happens if no running back
er receiver gets eighteen hundred yards thisyear? Seriously, I'm just asking.
I mean, Patrick Mahomes has wonthis award before, he won it in
twenty eighteen, so it is possiblefor quarterback to win it. Matt Ryan's

(36:44):
won it. There's been guys towin it, and all you need is
is not a breakout year from oneof these other guys, and it's Mahomes
for MVP is at six to one, just for context for everyone out there,
So you can get him at thirtyto one and really years banking on
some offensive player not having an eighteenhundred yards season or more. That's traditionally
around where that break point is wherethey can win the award. All right,

(37:07):
give me Patrick Mahomes at thirty toone to win Offensive Player of the
Year. I think that's a goodvalue play. If Mahomes is healthy,
you already know he's going to bein the conversation for MVP, and if
he's conversations try VP, that meanshe's the best quarterback. And if it's
just a slight down year a widereceiver running back, then he all of
a sudden he wins Offensive Player ofthe Year as well. He's done it
before thirty to one. I thinkis good value. Other futures. I

(37:29):
like in the team spots a couplein the NFC West and you can probably
tell their sink together. Rams tomake the playoffs at plus three ten,
San fran to miss the playoffs atplus three sixty. I'm gonna put a
little bit on both of those.I think San Frans overrated. I think
LA is underrated. And again I'llsay this now, it's for the value

(37:51):
on this. If you make mecall it, hey even money, I'll
say San fran finishes better than LA, but it's not even money. And
I think the U is absolutely therefor this to happen more likely than not.
So I like both of those plays. A couple of fun long shot
super Bowl matchups to saying that funlong shot super Bowl. We're gonna go

(38:15):
first off and don't get mad atme. One hundred and forty to one
Jets versus Seahawks. I know anotherNFC West team, man I'm talking about
Like like, I'm all in onthe Jets. I've kind of said I
think they have an elite defense.I think Aaron Rodgers has bought in.
Whatever you think of him personally,I'm not taking that into effect here.

(38:36):
He's He's won two the last threeMVPs. It's the biggest upgrade at quarterback
in this offseason. I think theJets could easily make the super Bowl.
I could certainly see that. Andthe Seahawks, I think they can win
that division and I think they coulddominate that division to an extent. It's
certainly possible. Again, you know, you know, I have questions on
san fran Gino is the most certaina quarterback in that division right now,

(39:01):
just because Staffords coming off the injury, Pete Carroll knows how to work at
defense. They've got a great offensewith great weapons. I could see Seattle
making that. And then the otherfun one is another team I already talked
about the Saints. Saints versus Chiefs, that's a sixty to one. Those
are both value plays that I like. I really think those teams are.

(39:23):
I think those are really good potentialvalues that you know, as we get
closer towards the playoffs, those numbersare gonna go way way down, so
I would get in on them.Now. All right, I'll give you
my official super Bowl pick at theend end of the show. But now
I'm gonna take some time running upagainst a little bit. But we're gonna
run through the Eagles wins and losses. Is through the whole regular season.

(39:44):
See what record we get just breakingit down. So starting off Patriots Week
one, I think that's a win. You guys heard me a couple of
weeks back. I am down inthe paths the fact that they're projective for
six and a half wins is theirwin total. Mac Jones isn't the guy
if you're really if you're going backbetween mac Jones and Bailey's Appy, that's
not working Belichick since Brady left,it just doesn't seem to have it.

(40:05):
This might be the last year atBelichick. Honestly, I could see him
retiring if things don't turn around,just to avoid tainting any his legacy anymore
than it already somewhat has been sinceTom went down and won and he has
not. So give me, giveme a win over the Patriots. Week
two you at the Vikings. Samething as Week two last year, exceptance
in a Monday night. It's notThursday night. It's at home. I

(40:27):
think it's a good game. Ilike the Vikings this year, justin Jefferson
obviously elite, but it's at homein the link short week that usually doesn't
favor of the road team. Eaglesare gonna win that one in my opinion.
Next they go over to the Bucks. I think Baker's better than people
think. I think it'll be okay. But I'm not scared about that either,
especially now it'll be the Eagles haveextra rest going into that game after

(40:47):
playing on a Thursday night. SoI got him at three and oh there
win at the Bucks Commanders at home. I buy in as Sam Hall will
be okay, decent quarterback. He'snot coming into the link and beating the
Eagles team is way too much talent. Eagles are gonna win that one.
It's another four and now these nexttwo. People will get mad at me,
but hey, you know what,we're allowed to have our picks.

(41:07):
I love the Eagles. Week fiveat the Rams, I'm gonna put that
as a loss everyone. I know. Everyone's saying, no, they're gonna
go six and to start seven otto start, I don't know. I
think you slip up. There's areason people don't go on to feed in
the NFL cross country trip to LaI think I think the Rams are gonna
be a little bit of a surpriseteam and I think they catch the Eagles

(41:30):
sleeping a little bit here and theyget a win. So four and one
after Week five, next going tothe Jets, I am going to go
with a loss there as well.I think I buy into the Jets being
a really good team. You alreadyheard me saying that it's at New York.
Yeah, I think that's gonna bea loss. There's now four and
two. Next up with the Dolphinsat home bounce back week. This Eagles

(41:53):
team is not gonna lose three ina row under Syrian, even behind Jalen
Hurts. Dolphins are very talented,but coming up north, I think we're
gonna get after twa with our dline. I don't think Miami's running game
is strong enough to fight us off. So I'm buying in that we are
going to win that game. Nextgot at the Commanders. I think we're

(42:14):
gonna sweep the Commanders this year.I'm even in on the Commanders, but
I think the Eagles are going tocapitalize on that matchup. I just do.
So I'm going to go win atthe Commanders, and then home versus
Dallas, I'm gonna give us thewin there, I get. I'll tell
you a little preview. I thinkwe're gonna split with Dallas, but I'll
give you that preview where I've fullybuy in that the Cowboys. The Eagles
will win versus the Cowboys in thatmatchup right before they head into the by.

(42:37):
So now you're head into the by. That's seven and two. So
very solid starts. There by theBirds come out of the by At Kansas
City, I know people are gonnawant to get that win, especially after
the bye week. I believe it'salso the coming off the bye week for
Kansas City. I'm sorry, I'mgonna go Chiefs win. It's at their
building. Then the Bills, thisis the roughest stretch of the schedule.

(43:00):
Quite frankly, this is a prettyrough stretch. Home versus the Bills,
I'll give us a win. Ithink it's a down yere for the Bills.
You've heard me say that. Mydown I mean, it's still think
they're a playoff team, but Idon't think they're as dominant as we've seen
versus the forty nine ers. Youwe already can tell us by the show
win versus the forty nine ers,especially at home, buying into that.
Then at Dallas loss, I alreadypreviewed that with you. You don't already

(43:22):
know what was coming. Then atSeattle, I'm gonna go another loss.
Sorry. I think that cross countrytrip is gonna be pretty rough. I
know it is generally rougher on WestCoast teams coming east, but I don't
think it's easy for East Coast teamsdoing going west either. Yeah, I
think they lose at Seattle there theyhave a good home environment. Seattle's good

(43:43):
at home, and then the lastthree games we have home versus the Giants,
give them a win. I don'tthink Dan Jones coming into this building,
especially as this game now has meaningfor the Eagles getting a win.
They're not going to get us versusthe Cardinals. Cardinals might be the worst
team in football, and they'll givethat chocolate one up for a win.
And then at the Giants, thisgame couldn't matter for potential playoff seeding,

(44:04):
so I want to give it awin. I think the Eagles, with
someone to fight forget that win winover the Giants. That would put them
at twelve and five. So I'dhave the Birds finishing twelve and five,
and then I put some in contentionfor the number one seed. But they
probably are just like they're probably justoff it. They're probably the second seed,
third seed in my opinion. Someoneprobably finds a way to get to
thirteen and can watch the Saints.I'm just telling you watch out for the

(44:25):
Saints, and maybe Detroit slash Minnesotacould also be creeping up there or Dallas.
Quite frankly, watch out for Dallas. But I have the Birds going
twelve and five, which run upon time. Leads me to my official
Super Bowl prediction. I will havethe Eagles in the Super Bowl, and

(44:46):
I'm gonna my official pick. Ihave them going up against the Jets.
I have Eagles Jets as my officialsuper Bowl prediction. Birds win. You
know what, call me a homer. They're an elite team. They got
an awesome, fantastic defense, anelite quarterback, awesome weapons. This team

(45:06):
is the best in the NFC byfar. I think they're going to have
an easier route to get there thanthe Jets did. And yeah, no,
what again. I love the Jetsthis year. I think they're gonna
be a great team. Give methe edge with Sirianni he's been to the
Super Bowl, salah as not asa head coach. I think it's gonna
be a big edge this time forUS. So Birds win over Jets a
super official Super Bowl pick. CollegeFootball's here, NFL's right around the corner.

(45:30):
Everyone enjoy it. You made it. Talk to you next week or
maybe slightly after the next episode ofBalls, Bets and Bets and stay tuned
to The Gambler all football season long. Fantasy Gambler all right, sorry.
Gambler Fantasy League Draft Tuesday live stream. Check it out on YouTube. Talk
to you guys soon