Balls, Bats, and Bets: State of the Sixers; Pitchers & Catchers report! -- 2/16/24

Spring is in the air! Tim O'Keefe goes over pitchers/catchers reporting with some early World Series reads, the state of the Sixers at the All-Star break, NBA All-Star Weekend, his breakdown of the Super Bowl coin flip controversy, and more.

Episode Transcript

(00:00):
For national winners. From a localperspective, you're in the right place.
It's balls, bats and bets withTim o'kee right here on the Gambler.
Welcome into balls, bets and betsa little earlier than usual on this beautiful
Friday, February sixteenth. Football season'sover. We're gonna talk about that in
a little bit, all the breakdownof everything super Bowl, because I mean,

(00:24):
hell, you know, I'm notgonna miss my chance to talk about
that whole game. But tons ofstuff going on in the world of Philly
sports as well. Obviously, Sixersat the All Star break, Flyers after
the All Star Break, coming outrelatively hot. I know they lost last
night, but still playing pretty goodhockey, surprisingly and got smell that fresh

(00:46):
cut grass down in Clearwater. ThePhillies pitchers and catchers, I've reported,
we're gonna start talking more baseball again, ladies and gentlemen. I am so
excited for that and all things Phillies. But I want to start on the
herd would and looking at where theSixers are, and you know everything going
on NBA. So where are theSixers. Let's start right there. They're

(01:08):
fifth in the East. As wego to the All Star Break two games
up on the Pacers who are insixth, half a game behind the Knicks
who are in fourth. It's obviouslybeen going downhill since Embiid went out with
the Sixers are three and seven intheir last ten games. It's it's a
problem again this team. It's beena little bit better than the first couple

(01:29):
of games that Embiid was out,where this was looking like an absolute train
wreck of a team. That beingsaid, they're not looking great right now
at all. It's been a prettyrough stretch and are they going to be
able to hold on to this likea decent playoff seeding without Embiid Knowing that,

(01:49):
I think the earliest estimations that Icould be realistic are like, you
know, late March, early Aprilfor when he's back, and that's assuming
everything goes well. There's not athere's a chance that Embid's not back at
all this weekend, which is aproblem obviously that if that happens and the
season is done and you chalk itup to next year. But there's a
lot, yeah, there's a lotthat's gonna be tough with this for this

(02:15):
team going forward. As if inlet's assume that beats coming back for the
playoffs. For the Sixers to havea realistic shot, I'm talking realistic shot
of you know, making the EasternConference finals and getting over that second round
hurdle, I think they have toavoid the play in I do. I

(02:37):
think they they have to avoid theplay in. Especially you can't be the
second seed in the play because thenyou run into Boston the first round.
I suppose if you end up gettingthe seventh seed and you win the first
game of the play in and you'rein that right slot of the playing tournament,
I guess I can see a pathbut running into Boston. Boston's the

(02:58):
buzz saw in the Eastern Conference.They are look I hate the Celtics much
as the next guy. They arestacked. They are absolutely stacked. Quite
frankly, I struggle to see anyteam in the East beating Boston. I
know Milwaukee's generally talked about as theold maybe they can do it, Milwaukee
hasn't looked that great, and DameLillard, as greatest score as he is,

(03:19):
his lack of defense is gonna enup hurting them in the playoffs in
that type of a series, andit's a problem especially with Drew Holliday former
Buck Now on the other side,who's great at defense. There's just so
much talent on that Boston team.But for the Sixers, I think they
need to stay. Really six areabove Maybe all right, I guess I
just talk myself in I can survivewith seven. But that being said,

(03:44):
the way this team's going right now, it's gonna be tough to do.
So. Now the Pacers, Iwill say a blessing in disguise. The
Pacers made some moves where they essentiallyare saying it's not our year, right
the Buddy Heel trade, like theythe Pacers got worse as a trade in
line for this season they did.There's no hiding that the Pacers were saying,
hey, it's not quite our year. They're building something. They were
gathering assets and did that whole shebangnow, so they went with they said

(04:10):
it's not our Your sixers going forBuddy Heeld said you know what, I
still want to try this year,see what I can pull off, and
that's what they're going with. Soreally what ends up happening is, as
I'm watching, I'm hoping for theSixers to hold on to that six seat.
Are better. It's the next twoteams I'm worried about who are right

(04:30):
now in seventh and eighth, andthat is Miami and Orlando, respectively.
And let me tell you what scaresme. The Sixers have the ninth hardest
schedule left in the NBA Strength ofSchedule remaining at five point fifteen twenty eight
games left. They got multiple matchesto the Clippers, multiple matches to the
Bucks, multiple matches with the Calves, who are hot as hell. I
know the Sixers just beat them,but the Calves have been one of the

(04:53):
hottest teams in basketball. And theproblem with that is ninth isn't terrible.
It's not it's not like it's likeone two. It's it's tour. It's
getting ish middle of the pack.Still a little stronger than that, but
getting middle of the pack ish.The problem is Miami has the twenty seventh
hardest or you know, fourth easiestschedule remaining, where they have three games

(05:15):
left with the Pistons, two withthe Wizards, two with the Blazers,
two with the Raptors, a coupleothers thrown in there, of course,
but twenty seven games left, fortysix percentage against them, and Orlando has
the easiest schedule remaining by point zerotwo five, So you know by twenty

(05:38):
five pips on a win percentage,where twenty ninth easiest schedule it is Brooklyn
there at four to sixty, Orlandois at four thirty five. Orlando has
like two games of Charlotte left,one with Washington, three with the Hornets,
one with the Blazers, two withthe Raptors. It's it's a very
easy schedule and Orlando is trying thisyear. Orlando wants to be, you

(06:03):
know, make the playoffs again,and they don't want to be playing team
no one wants to be in thatplane. It scares me because I I
don't the other the other option wouldbe the Sixers to have to pass somebody
and the Knicks. The Knicks havebeen playing great, the Knicks of the
team right above them. I don'twithout Embiid, Sixers aren't passing the Knicks
now unless something happens to them andthey get the injury bug, which no

(06:25):
one wants to see that. I'mnot rooting for that, but you get
what I'm saying. It's a problemthe Sixers right now, the way things
are shaping up, I think areprobably gonna end up as that seventh seed
in the playing tournament, and youreally gotta win that. That game becomes
so crucial because that's the difference ofmatching up against Cleveland or a Boston and
that's it. If you run intoBoston. I struggle to see how any

(06:47):
one of the East beats Boston.I struggle to see how the Sixers beat
Boston, even with embiid. There'sso much talent there. And it sounds
so dumb, it really does.What I'm about to say. I hate
that I'm about to say this,but it's so important for the Sixers team
if they have a healthy embid tofind a way to make that stepping stone
to the Eastern Conference finals. Andyou can't do that by running into Boston

(07:09):
earlier. So you need to finda way to be in those not too
middle to pack seeds for what it'sworth, but like finding a way to
get in the two three side ofthe bracket rather than the one four.
That's it. That's what you gottafigure out. And I get it.
Everyone's gonna say, well, it'sabout winning a championship, it's not about
what everyone else's losers. I getthat, But for a mental building block.

(07:31):
You kind of got to get there. And also that can help you
if you can prove, hey,we can get to that next level.
Now, all of a sudden,you might be attracting a little bit better
of a free agent, because weknow that's what this is all shaping up
for Morey's moves. We're all shapingup to make a big splash this offseason.
That's what's building towards. Tobias isgonna come off the books, Money's

(07:53):
gonna be available, and Bead's playingat the top of his game when he's
healthy. Maxi is a rising star. This is all building towards getting that
third star. I've seen a coupleof names flowed. I saw Paul George
Rumor as like a potential fit.You know, he's a free agent.
Different things like that, Like sure, whether it's him or somebody of that
caliber, you add them to thisteam and you can keep some of this

(08:16):
depth that you've built where Morey makesgood decisions, like with a Kelly Ubray,
with other folks like that. Iknow all these pieces might be moving
on a little bit because Ubra,you know, small contract, he'll get
paid by somebody a lot more thangetting paid this year. But there's a
lot a lot of pieces out therethat we're going towards the next season and
being able to sell somebody on hey, look at this team. We took

(08:39):
that step forward and made the EasternConference finals. That's a huge deal.
That is a huge deal. Soit's all the more important for the Sixers
to try to stay out of thatplan torn him. But again, I'll
tell you the way I see itshaping up right now, I think they're
the seven a soume. I amassuming an embeied timeline that he's back.
Let's say April first. That's Igot hopefully is back sooner, but I'm

(09:01):
basing it off of doctor Tim andI do not have any degree, but
that's my gut guess on a roundwhen we see him come back, if
at all this season. So that'sthe state of the Sixers, at least
in my eyes. We'll keep goingthrough it. We might even go back
to Sixers a little bit later inthe show. But I did want to
dive into, uh some of oursome of our contests coming up this weekend

(09:24):
where we have All Star we haveAll Star Weekend. I do love the
All Star Weekend it's a blast.It is very fun. Three point contests
is my favorite one and admittedly wayI'm looking for the odds here. I
don't I have three point contests.I don't see the dunk contest, which

(09:45):
is shocking. Hold up, let'ssee dunk contest. This is interesting.
Maybe maybe they're changing the odds.I okay, here we go, let's
get these. Here we go.Excuse part of my French. No mac
McClung this year. Oh wait,yes, yes, mac McClung this year.

(10:07):
Excuse me, sorry, he's thearticle saying he's not in the NBA
but he is going to go forthe back to back dunk contest. That
guy's fun. Mac McClung does whathe does, it's an electric jump.
He is so much fun in thedunk contest. I'm glad he's doing that.
Jalen Brown, let me and god, this is gonna sound like I'm
a Celtics lover on the show becauseI'm about to say this, but let
me give credit. In a inan era where you don't get many,

(10:33):
like really any stars doing the dunkconness, you'll get some guys that like
later become stars because they did it. When they first got in the leg
because they were like a mid round, first round pick. They'll do it.
Jalen Brown is a star in thisleague and he's just now going to
the dunk contest, thank you.Like that's what it's like, an embarrassment
thing for guys that they lose.I don't know what it is, but

(10:54):
like, look, we never sawLebron do the dunk contest. We never
saw I mean, Kevin Durant isnot really built for it. But you
get what I'm saying. You don'tsee stars doing the dunk contest, and
I think that's one of the bigthings that's absolutely ruined it over the years
because you end up having to getguys and this is not against him,
but you get guys like mac McClungwho need to step up and just yes

(11:16):
they're out. They're super athletic andthey do this and they that that becomes
a show. Matt McClung is butprobably he's Look, he's a minus two
twenty, that's what I'm seeing theodds here. So he's a huge favorite.
Best dunker in and I can't sayingthe NBA, it's not an NBA
roster best dunker in the United States. I guess that's the best way I
could say this, But it wouldbe so much more interesting if you've got

(11:37):
a Jalen Brown up against a manwho else would be good. I mean,
let's I mean, I'd love tosee Lebron now he's now, he's
pretty old and up there, butI would love to have seen it Yiannis.
I'd love to see what Yiannis doesin a dunk contest. That's a
that's a That's one of the betterexamples I can think of it. But
you get what I'm saying, Like, there's athletic stars in this league,

(12:01):
and guys used to want that titleand they would go for it. When
you had Jordan Dominique, Vince Carterlike, you had guys going for it
and wanting to bed doctor j ofcourse, the guys that are elite at
basketball but also elite dunkers and wantedto say, hey, this is what
I can do. You don't havethat anymore. But Jalen Brown credits you.

(12:22):
Credit credit to you for stepping upand giving this a shot. The
rest of the field Jacob Tooppin plussix hundred and Haimi Hakes Junior plus six
fifty former UCLA product now at theheat. Hopefully it's entertaining. I'm excited
to see what mclung does. Iam like he's he's always fun to watch
it. I'm excited to see whatJayleen Brown does. I'm excited not to

(12:46):
just the other guys. Those arethe two that I'm watching for. They'd
say I think Mac McClung's the bigfavor for a reason. I think that's
where your money should go if youwant to bet on said dunk contest.
Uh other uh, other picks.Let's see so skills challenge. I can't
even tell you who's on each team'sbut we got team top Picks, Team

(13:09):
All Stars, and Team Pacers.I always like, hey, you know
what gott Field, go with thehome team, but that you again up
in the air. Three point contestsgot a pretty good field, uh,
Damian Lillard, Tyrese Haliburton, TreyYoung, Laurie Markinen, Karl, Anthony
Towns, Jalen Brunson, Malik Beasley, Donovan Mitchell. What I will say

(13:31):
here, I think it's very difficultfor a big man to win these.
I do. I don't think they'reshot like even they could be a great
shooter like Dirk was a great shooter. It's so much like it's too quick
for them to be able to getthrough and they end up rushing. So
I'm already a little bit out onLaurie and uh Karl Anthony Towns. That

(13:52):
brings me. I thought Trey Youngcan do stuff like this like Trey Young
and plus six hundreds attractive. JalenBrunson does attract me a little bit.
Plus six hundred as well. Damesone before, I believe, so Dame
Ay plus four seventy five decent deal, like it's it's a pretty good value,
but even it's funny like it's aneighteen field. But last odds are

(14:13):
don Donovan Mitchell plus seven hundred,I mean seven to one in an eight
man field. That's still not evenpaying out the odds. But that's it's
a look. We know books aregonna make money, so that's what's going
in there. But it's interesting.I do think it's a pretty good field
for this. They do get starsin the three point contest. For everything
I said about ripping into the dunkContest, they generally are good at getting
those stars into the three point Contest. All right, So official picks.

(14:37):
Give me Mac McClung at the minustwo twenty for the dunk contest, and
I'll take Trey Young plus six hundredfor the three point contest. Lastly,
All Star Game MVP. I dolike playing this each year. While the
All Star Game itself is just youknow, run up and down, everyone
score xyz, it's not as it'sI don't like betting on the game because

(15:00):
it's just it's it's an exhibition.No one's really trying that much. But
I do like to look at guyslike, hey, who could who's good
value here to potentially win All StarGame MVP. The first guy that jumps
out of me try trying to gethis name into that, and heah already
is in the conversation that's excuse meyour phrases. But Shay gilgis Alexander trying
to make a case for his firstMVP. I could see him trying to

(15:24):
run wild in this. He's attwelve to one. I do like the
value on him. Other guys,I like the value on Jalen Brown.
Honestly, at fifty to one seemslike pretty decent value to me. You
know, he's does the dunk contestkeeps building that up. I think he
could be a good value. Ithink Donovan Mitchell at twenty two to one
is good value. And I'll sayI think Trey Young at a one hundred

(15:46):
to one is good value. Thoseare the names that jump out at me.
Honestlye Paolo Benchero at two hundred toone. You know you can talk
me into that. You can talkme into Polo again, it's he's probably
not gonna get enough time to doit, because I'd like to have,
you know, the guys like Giannisand Lebron and out in the court more.

(16:07):
Not that they're on the same team, well, Yannis is, but
Lebron is on a different team.But I can see the value there.
So that let's see the official play. I'll say is SGA at twelve to
one. But I also like flyerson Paolo, Trey Young, Jalen Brown
at fifty to one, and I'llsay Donovan Mitchell twenty two. If you
want to spread your spread your levelround there a little bit with that might

(16:29):
take a quick break. When wecome back, let's dive into I think
it'll be the Phillies. I thinkwe're gonna go Phillies next. As we're
going into different topics here on Balls, Bets and Bets on Fox Sports.
The Gambler coming back right after this. If you can wager on it,
we're talking about it. It's theGambler. We're back. We're back,
We're back, and just like ourbeloved Philadelphia Phillies, they are back.

(16:55):
Pitchers and catchers have officially reported toclear Water and yeah, swall last season
ended horribly, There's no way aroundit. It was horrible ending. We
should have been back in the WorldSeries, might have won, We'll never
know, but we didn't. Wechoked in the NLCS. But that's done.
That's in the past because now pitchersand catchers are here. They're down

(17:18):
in Florida, down in Clearwater,tossing the ball where it's nice and warm.
We've got Charlie Manuel, which greatto see it. He's out there
with the guys after the stroke hesuffered last year, and great to see
him moving around, everyone giving hima standing ovation as he's stepping around there.
And it's a real good, feelgood moment to start spring training by

(17:41):
getting to see him out there.Because no one loves baseball more than Charlie.
I love baseball more to the moonand back. And to see Charlie
being able to be out there,you know that that means the world to
him, to his family, andit's great to see that. And it's
on the precipice of another exciting Thinghilliesbaseball season. Right This team, this

(18:03):
team's legit. This team is gettinga ton of respect in terms of where
people think they're going to finish.What the uh? What the projections are
there right now? The seventh favoriteto win the World Series? They are
Let's see how many. Let's getthe win totals. Phillies right now projected

(18:23):
four ninety and a half excuse me, ninety and a half wins accord to
DraftKings. It's a damn good total. That is a damn good total.
And I expect the Phillies to honestlycontinue being great. When I say great,

(18:44):
do I mean you know, onehundred win Dodger and Brave's great?
Now? No, we're not thereyet. Maybe I should say very good,
because that's probably great. But Iexpect this Phillies team to be contenders
all year round. I expect forthem to fight a little more for the
division this year. I'm not sayingthat they're gonna get there. The Braves
are an elite talent. They're thesecond favorite to win the World Series right

(19:04):
now, so it is tough havingthem in division. But that being said,
I didn't The Phillies have clearly establishedthemselves as the third best team in
the National League, which, whileit's not saying a ton, it sounds
like, oh, well, wait, you want to be first second Once
you get to the playoffs, thatplayoff experience matters, and the Phillies have

(19:25):
had more success in the playoffs recentlythan both the Dodgers and the Braves last
few seasons, at least, Ishould say, of the last two years.
So once you get talked to overanything can happen. And I think
the Phillies are gonna have another verystrong season. You get a full year
Bryce playing first base, You havea most pretty much all of your lineup

(19:45):
back. I mean, obviously Reesdidn't play last year he's moved on to
Milwaukee, but really all the otherpieces are back. You were able to
resign Aaron Nola, You have oneof the best rotations in baseball. You
do I know. As frustrating asthe pitching staff is here in philm can
be you do have one of thebest rotations in baseball. Zach Wheeler is
fantastic. He's the calm at thetop, just absolutely dominant and dominant arm

(20:10):
Aaron Nola is your can be elitelike top five stuff, or you know,
sometimes it's a little down. Hedoes have those ups and downs.
This should be if you're looking atyour Nola calendars. If he's a up
year down, your up year down, your type guy, which he has
been. This should be an upyear now. Granted he's signed the big
deal. We'll see how that impactsthat trend, but should be an up
year for Nola hopefully. And thenRanger Suarez no concerns with him. Christopher

(20:33):
Sanchez started to look great towards theend of last season playoffs. Nah,
could have been a little better,but hey, still seeing some promise out
of him and time on Walker forthe regular season. Five is perfectly fine.
I know a lot of people wantto rip on Walker, and I
get it, he's getting paid waytoo much. I do understand that as
a five in year rotation, that'sa great number five. It is.

(20:59):
He is a great number five now, granted the order they actually go out,
and I'm guessing Sanchez will be thefifth guy to start game. But
I'm just saying what in terms ofwho your best pitchers are, I would
have Sanchez above Walker right now.I think most people would would surprise me
otherwise. But then there is aquestion out there that we've heard some rumors
about were MLB free agents there.There's still a ton of free agents out

(21:22):
there. A lot of guys havenot signed yet, which is very interesting.
This year's bring, this year's signingpools seems to be going later and
later than other years. Name thekeeps getting floated to Jordan Montgomery and that
the Phillies have interest now if it'sa shorter deal at the right price.
Last two full seasons combined for Montgomery, He's nineteen and seventeen with a three

(21:42):
three four ERA and three hundred andsixty seven innings, three hundred and twenty
four k's and a FIP of threepoint fifty nine. Pretty damn good.
I'm not ready to like pay outtop dollar for the guy, like he's
not Nola. He's not, buthe's pretty good. Had an elite postseason
run obviously with the Rangers and helpthem get to that World Series ring.

(22:06):
I look. Of course I lovethe idea of adding a guy like that,
is it's got to be at theright price. There's other areas I
would if I if you give mea blank check, there's other areas I
would focus on potentially first. ButI'm not gonna say I don't want to
add Jordan Montgomery, especially in thisleague where we know pictures get hurt.
Having a guy with great postseason experienceand being able to add him into this

(22:26):
rotation, it's a big potential win. If you add him, I think
it solidifies that you have the bestrotation in baseball. I think you leave
no question. I would say thatfor him or Blake Snell. Now grant,
I have not heard the Phillies isconnected with Blake Snell. But if
you add one of those guys,I think it's a lock that it's the
best rotation, whereas without it there'sdebates. And again, Phillies are still

(22:48):
easily a top five rotation without signingeither of those guys. I fully believe
that. I am very curious whatwill happen what he gets signed for if
you sign Montgomery. I think withthe move that you do is Sanchez goes
back to the bullpen and start theyear, and then inevitably, when a
pitcher goes down, he comes outto start. I think that's the move.
He obviously wouldn't like that. It'dbe tough on him after having a

(23:11):
great starting role last year for thattime that he did towards the second half.
But that being said, I thinkthat would be what you have to
do because walker out of the bullpendoesn't work, and you're paying him too
much. If you could, Idon't even try. I was hearing this
argument. I don't even sure Iwant to find a trade partner for walking
out. I having six competent startersis not a bad thing. I'm not
saying I want to do a sixman rotation, but being able to put

(23:33):
Sanchez into the bullpen for a littlebit and then pull him back out once
someone inevitably gets hurt, we knowthat's gonna happen. That's not a bad
thing. That can help make thisteam more competitive in games and keep you
closer to the Braves, right,really could. So that's what I see
with the Phillies. I think Ithink it's gonna be a great season Phillies
base, but we're gonna talk alot more in depth in the Phillies.

(23:53):
As we get closer to MLB season, I think opening days like March twenty
seventh, well for the Phillies twentyseven to twentieth, I know they're playing
the Korea Series or Japan Series.I apologize, and that's like March twentieth,
But that's the way I've envisioned this. I didn't want to talk through
some MLB World Series odds and somethings that just jumped out of me.

(24:15):
And again, we're gonna look atspring training and we're gonna go through everything,
but I I doways want to talkthrough some of these odds. So
I have three value plays for theWorld Series, and these are longer shots.
And I have three teams that Ithink are just really overrated, just
ridiculously overrating the odds. So I'mgonna start with the value the Detroit Tigers.

(24:37):
Now I get what you're thinking.The Tigers have been pretty rough for
the last really about a decade atthis point, it's been it's been pretty
rough being a Detroit Tigers fan.That being said, finished second in the
Al Central last year. Taking somesteps forward. They got some good young
arms on guys like Tarik Skooble caseymy. They got good young bats that

(25:00):
are seem to be getting better andbetter, with Spencer Torkelson, who I
think he's a household name coming soon. Riley Green, who's even closer to
being a household name. Those guysare those guys can hit. Those are
both two top five draft picks thatI believe they've hit on, and I
expect that. I fully expect thatDetroit is above five hundred this year fighting

(25:23):
for a playoff spot, especially sincetheir division is the weakest in all of
baseball. Right you have the Twinsat the top, fine, the Twins
are a decent team. Then afterthat, I got the Royals, the
White Sox, and the Guardians,not in that order. Guardians would be
first out of those three. Butyou know what I'm saying, none of
those teams scare me. Detroit canstep up and get a lot of wins

(25:47):
in that division and then all ofa sudden, I can very easily see
them making the playoffs. And atsixty to one, that's what their World
Series odds right now. I'm notsaying I expect them to win, but
sixty to one is way too muchvalue. That's one that I might like
split my bet in half, dotwo tickets and maybe one gets cashed out
when Detroit makes the playoffs. I'mnot I guess when might be an aggressive

(26:07):
statement there, but you get whatI'm saying. When they're competing to make
the playoffs, this is one Ithink you fast forward into May and June
and the Tigers are down to likethirty or forty to one. Like,
I think this is gonna get cutdown pretty quick and significantly, and then
you can get some cash out valueor you know what, ride it out.
So that's where that's the first valueplay I got there. I got

(26:27):
Detroit at sixty to one is avery nice value play. Let's go to
an overrated over and we're gonna goto the team with the I believe that
the fourth best odds, the NewYork Yankees. Yes, they got one
Soda. I get it. WanSodo, I think is what if he
keeps on it, He's gonna bea future Hall of Famer. Didn't have

(26:48):
a great year last year. That'sthe outlier. He's still super young,
great player. But the Yankees areat ten to one. They are the
second favorites to win the World Seriesin the al U only behind who was
at Houston. Of course, ateight to one. That's the there.
The Yankees are the fourth best oddsto win the World Series. I think

(27:11):
they there's a case to be madein the fourth best team in their division.
I really do. And you're gonnatell me they're ten to one.
I know the Yankees odds are alwaysinflated, but dear God, I cannot
bet on the Yankees at ten toone. This team finished eighty two and
eighty last year. They almost werebelow five hundred, got a little hot
at the end, honestly, toget above it. There's no shot I
can justify that they need they needto turn around so much, and that,

(27:33):
yes, do they have some moreoffense besides Aaron Judge. Now,
yes, they got soda, youstill need more. You need more in
my opinion to justify that ten toone ratings. So no Yankees overrated.
Next value play, I'm sticking inthe Al East Tampa Bay Rays thirty five
to one. Yes, I knowthey're not gonna quit it. They wander.
Franco Is gone like he's done.They had him for most of the

(27:56):
last season. All Star shorts ofbelieving team. Yeah, that hurts.
But Tampa Bay loses people all thetime. They usually they lose them to
free agency, and they are alwaysable to fill in and adjust and find
a way to get back there.Last year, this team won hold please

(28:17):
ninety nine games. They won ninetynine games last season and Wander Franco was
out for a couple months at theend. There, It can't it doesn't
make sense that all this would justhappen out of that. Like they Tampa
just gets no love because they don'thave the household names. So that is
a franchise that knows how to win. You're getting Tampa at thirty five to

(28:40):
one, which is I believe fourthin their division. Yeah, behind the
Yankees Orioles Blue Jays. They wonninety nine games last year. You're getting
a thirty five to one. Thatis insane. They lost one player.
You know that they know how tofill in. Tampa Bay at thirty five
to one is a very solid valueplay. In my next on the overrated

(29:02):
side, it's gonna sound oh god, what's the word sacrilegious? I guess
Saint Louis at thirty five to oneway overrated Saint Louis to me for the
last two decades has been like thearchetype of how to build a franchise.
In general, they always in it. Them and the Giants generally, they're

(29:23):
always in it. They do agreat job. They don't have the biggest
budgets in the world, but theyalways find a way to have that next
guy up and they're always competitive winningtheir division. Last year, this team
finished twenty games below five hundred.Let that sink in twenty games below five
hundred, they were seventy one andninety one. What do they do to
get better this offseason? Let's Iknow Nolan Aronado and Paul Goldschmid got older.

(29:49):
Saint Louis does this see Saint LouisCardinals offseason? What comes up?
I can't remember a single move Thisarticle is from last year's offseason. Makes
me they haven't done anything. Yousee my point, there's no like major,

(30:10):
major, big moves that they've made. They haven't. Now maybe they
will again, I'm basing everything offof what I have right now. I
saw the articles go maybe they'll gosign Snell, Like, all right,
maybe, but until you do,they haven't done a thing. And they
were a twenty game below five hundredteam last year with their two best players
being only the wrong side of thirtymakes zero sense to me to have them

(30:30):
at thirty five to one when there'sother teams lower than them that are easily
better chances to win the World Serieseasily. It's not even that close,
So Saint Louis hasn't overrated in mymind. Next to my last value play,
I'll stick in the NL Central CincinnatiReds and now again I'm not similar

(30:52):
to the Tigers. I can't tellyou I expect the Reds to win the
World Series. What I can tellyou is they are in a pretty weak
division. They have a lot ofyoung talent that is potentially getting ready to
peak. Hunter Green strikeout machine.That is a guy that you're's gonna keep

(31:14):
hearing and hearing as long as hestays healthy because he is potentially ace with
that arm is electrifying stuff. AndrewRabbit came up last year firing out of
the gates huge strikeout potential. Sloweddown a little bit towards the end,
but they got decent arms in therotation. They've moving on from Joey Vado.
I think it's about time for that, Like, let's get more of

(31:36):
the young guys in there. Theydo have some pretty decent young talent out
there in Cincinnat. They've been startingto build. I like what the Rts
are doing, and I think thesecond best team in that division. Honestly,
maybe it's third. I'll say thatfor sorry, Milwaukee has fallen off
the face of the earth in termsof odds. This is a bonus value
playing Milwaukee's at ninety to one.They won ninety two games last year,

(31:56):
won the division. I don't getthat. Yeah, I know they traded
Corvin Burns and they've made a coupleother moves, but to me, ninety
to one is too far. Butthat being said, I think the Reds
are gonna be a similar team tothe Tigers, where you get to June
July and all of a sudden thatforty five to one is actually closer to
like a twenty five to one,thirty to one, giving them a shot,

(32:19):
good cash out option and or youknow, ride it for the value.
And then the last overrated team andI always have fun with this one
because they spend they fall into thiscategory the Mets. Mets are at forty
five to one. They've already letyou know it's not their year. The
Mets will be sellers, right theyalready they did the whole Verlander Schurzer thing
gone last year. They're not makingany moves. The Mets are. They're

(32:45):
building. They're trying to build.I admit long term might be the right
move. This season is not gonnabe it. There are so many teams
I think should be higher than theMets. It's the Tigers. I think
the Tigers, the Padres, theBrewers all should be higher than the Mets.
I'm not saying I think that themet should bee hundred to one,
but I'm saying those teams are better. I think the Mets should be somewhere
closer to seventy seventy to one inthat ballpark. Yeah, no, there's

(33:10):
the Mets are gonna be sellers.They know it's not their year. It's
just they have some inflated odds becausethey're in New York. And that might
be the same thing for the Yankees. But I can't bet on either of
them with those odds. So thoseare I'll give you a quick recap because
we're running up against the break valueplays Tigers at sixty to one, Raise
at thirty five to one, Redsat forty five to one with a bonus

(33:30):
I'll throw on the Bowers at ninetyto one is also crazy to me.
For the World Series overrated, donot touch them. Yankees ten to one,
Saint Louis thirty five to one,Mets forty five to one. That's
it. Those are my initial Wejust started spring training. Happy pitchers and
catchers, everybody. I think everyteam is reported. When we come back.
Got one last segment for you,and we'll go through little I wanted

(33:55):
the Super Bowl recap, of course, so we'll go through that piece as
well as an additional topic. We'llI'll lets you know when we get back
after this. Ball's Bets and Betson Fox Sports. The Gambler spreads totals
and all the prop bets in between. It's the Gambler, all right.
Third and final segment here on balls, Bets and Bets for tonight before we
head into NBA All Star Weekend.I do just want to call out stay

(34:19):
tuned after this. I forget eitherright after or an hour after that.
But Sean brac and the crew doinga six Ers round table. It's talking
through everything that went on in thefirst half. Probably some of the similar
concepts that we might have talked aboutin the first segment, but I want
to hear those guys perspectives because hey, there's not enough perspectives that you could
have with this team. So staytuned with it for that coming up after.
I think it's a two hours segmentif I saw that correctly from my

(34:42):
text from Sean. But I wantto use this final segment to talk through
the closing of the NFL season.What we saw there in the super Bowl
A strangely, it's a it wasa boring first half. I only that's
a shocker. It ended up beingis an all time great super Bowl goes
to overtime. I think it's thesecond time and super Bowl's gone to overtime.

(35:06):
Really good back and forth in thefourth quarter and overtime first half was
born. Though it was weird.It wasn't engaging throughout, but it's definitely
engaging late. The Chiefs are adynasty. I'm just gonna read you off.
I jotted down my thoughts. TheChiefs are a dynasty. Three titles
in five years. That meets thecriteria for me, especially when within that

(35:27):
five years they also lost one whenthey lost to the Buck. So four
trips in five years. The onlytime they didn't make it was when Joe
Burrow got Homes in that one AFCChampionship game. Mahmes proves that you can
win on the road in the playoffs. Did that this year. Check the
box. They're a dominant. Theyare a dynasty. There's no way around

(35:49):
it. When we look back inyou know, decades from now, there's
not many teams that you call dynasty. I mean, obviously you have the
Patriots NFL. Wise, there's noone else since two thousand that I'm calling
a dynasty except for these Chiefs andthe Patriots. Next thought, anyone saying

(36:09):
that Mahomes is already at Brady levelis completely wrong with I will add anyone
saying that Mahomes isn't on pace tobe Brady level is also completely wrong.
I can't discount the longevity of Bradyand how long he didn't, how great
he was over so many years.All the total stat compilation from Tom Brady

(36:34):
beats Mahomes easily. Right now atthis point, it does. That.
Being said, if I were totake them both at this age or this
many years as a starting quarterback,Mahomes is there right like He's on pace
right now. Tom Brady's the goat. There's no question about it. Anyone
arguing is just doing so just makean argument. But Mahomes is on pace.

(36:59):
He is putting up incredible status.I think Mahomes can do things with
the ball that Brady couldn't do.Now, Brady's the reason Brady was great
is he read a defense like noother. He was able to get that
ball out so quick right to theguy, get to get it to his
playmakers when he needed to, andthat's what made Tom Brady great. Mahomes
he can do that some And thisisn't trying to say that Brady didn't also

(37:21):
have great arm twn xyz, butlike they're both two all time great quarterbacks.
Mahomes is great because he physically movesand can do things and throw on
these weird angles that no one elsecan. That's just the truth of it.
That's the absolute truth of it.So Mahomes not at Brady level yet,
but is on pace. Travis Kelceyand Andy Reid with the whole bump,

(37:45):
I I think it got blown wayout of proportion. It's because it's
on the super Bowl stage. It'sliterally in part because of the whole Travis
Kelcey Taylor Swift thing where you haveTaylor Swift fans saying, oh, that's
a bad sign. He gets aggressiveand anger. I'm like, athlete,
I guess what, dad, probablycross a line. Yeah, sure,
but this happens all the time.I guarantee you right now, Travis Kelcey

(38:07):
or any Reid aren't having a secondthought about it. It was a quick
conversation between them after the game.I'm sure like, hey, you know
that wasn't cool. Yeah, I'msure Travis apologized and X Y and Z
good to go. Done, Moveon. It's not a story. It's
not a story. It should havenever been a big story. But the
problem is it gets caught on nationalTV. People want to talk about it.

(38:29):
On the forty nine ers side,Kyle Shanahan blows his third Super Bowl
with a ten point lead if youcount the one that when he was the
Falcons offensive coordinator. He is obviouslyan incredible play caller, best in the
NFL, right right there with anyReid. But it's getting tough to get
around this narrative as a choke artistuntil he gets over the top. Because

(38:52):
to blow three ten point leads istough, Like that's tough to do.
I get to prove to Patrick Mahomes, I get it, but still and
the other ones to Brady actually asa think about it, but you gotta
be able to hold on to theseat some point. And I don't want
to say it, say didn't learnbut in both games I shouldn't say.

(39:13):
But I don't remember the first Chiefsforty nine Ers matchup as well as I
should. But this matchup and theFalcons Patriots won two of his losses.
Got away from running the ball,and that's why his team was good at
like it seemed like every time theforty nine Ers gave the batt to McCaffrey
was seven yards and for some reasonthey got away from that. I guess

(39:36):
there was a little bit of aslow up in that in the third quarter,
but not much. Like he ranaway from that really quick and put
it on brock Perty's shoulders to bepassing. And I think brock Perty played
pretty well better than I expected.Frankly, I thought he showed up and
played pretty well. He's not gonnabeat Mahomes like just pure quarterback playing,
that's not gonna happen. But Ithought Perdy played decent until it was throw

(39:59):
throw throat throw, and the fortynine ers got away from the forty nine
ers are And I do think thatShanahan does have a little bit of a
panic button in his own mind thathe goes to because again, his players
I thought did their jobs. Ithought Pretty to great or great strong.
I thought pretty played well. Ithought McCaffrey was very solid. I thought

(40:20):
killed at a decent game. Ithought the weapons I thought played fine,
like all the weapons played pretty good. But Shanahan, to me, didn't
stick with the game plan. Headjusted and he didn't really need to.
He like overthought it now going intothe I call overthought dilemma of this whole

(40:43):
scenario situation. I know, themost popular topic the day after and probably
still the most popular topic in SanFrancisco is the coin flip and the whole
controversy around it. And this mightbe a hot take because I've a lot
of people have had really divisive opinionson this, and I don't think there

(41:05):
is a there should be a reallydecisive or there's not a correct answer.
You can make a case for eitherway, and I'll break it down for
you right now, so NFL playoffovertime rules go ahead, flip the coin.
Team gets to choose do they kickoff or receive. That's always been
the same. The rules are bothteams will get a chance to possess the

(41:30):
ball, and then if they're stilltied after both possessions, then the assuming
both teams scored, then the originalteam will get the ball back, and
if they score, it's over.It's not crazy logic by Kyle Shanahan to

(41:50):
say we'll take the ball and thenif we both tie, you know,
if they're both score field goals,both score touchdowns, that's it. Then
the forty nineers got the ball back, and if they go up and kick
a field goal, it's over.I don't know how people are saying it
was dumb by him to do that, Like it's not a bad decision because

(42:12):
now and here I'll give the counterto it in a second. But that
is there's a very logical answer tothat, Like that's see, I can
follow that train of thought. Let'sjust stick there. Stick with me there,
can you follow that train of thought? If you are tied after one
possession, you get the ball backand a score wins it. The other
team doesn't get a chance. That'swhy you would take the ball. I
fully follow that logic. The otherside of it is if you kick off,

(42:37):
the other team scores or doesn't score, whatever they do, and you
know exactly what you have to dofor that next possession. You either have
to get to three, seven oreight and I'll explain why I said eight
and a second in that next drive. Otherwise you lose. And that means,
you know, each if it's assumingthey scored a touchdown, that means

(42:59):
you have four plays to get there, right, you have four plays.
You're not gonna punt because then thegame's over. So everything becomes four down
territory, which does make an offensivepossession easier if you know what's a four
down territory situation. The reason Ithink everyone's coming out and being like Shannahan's
an idiot. Shanahan's an idiot,is because the Chiefs let it be known
that, Hey, in this scenariowhere if the forty nine ers scored a

(43:22):
touchdown, we know they didn't,they end up picking a field goal.
But in the scenario where the fortynine ers had scored a touchdown, assuming
they kicked an extra point, theChiefs said they were going to go for
two, like they weren't going togive the ball back to San Francisco.
It was gonna end right then andthere with a two point try. Okay,

(43:42):
all right, that's fine if youbelieve a two point tries about fifty
to fifty. That still gives theforty nine Ers a fifty to fifty shot
at winning. Right, and guesswhat. Let's say the forty Nineers were
able to stop the Chiefs and theChiefs had a kick a field goal.
Let's say it got to fourth andfifteen, fourth and ten. Chiefs wouldn't

(44:02):
have gone for it. Chiefs wouldhave kicked obviously, like a fourth and
one, fourth two, fourth andthree, that might be a different story.
But the Chiefs would have kicked,and there's a point, and then
all of a sudden, you getthe ball back and you can go up
and kick a field goal and winthe game. I personally think the right
choice is to take the ball.Like, even after all this and everyone's
saying he's an idiot, I don'tthink he's idiot. I think he made

(44:24):
the right call. I think AndyReid had his strategy in better place.
I guess let it be known tohis players better, which all right,
fine, maybe Shannon under communicated tohis players, but that's fine. The
other thing in this everyone's like,oh Andy, there's no no one.
Has anyone asked Andy to question,Hey, what if you won the coin

(44:45):
toss? What would you have done? I don't think that question came up.
I haven't seen it. If someonehas it, please tweeted that man.
I'd love to see his answer.But I don't think it's very obvious
that Andy would say I will kick. I think they were prepared for the
scenario where the other team with theball and if they scored a touchdown what
they would do, And that's perfectlyfine. They were ready for it,
and I agree, I think thatwould be the right decision by Reid to

(45:06):
go for two in that case.But it's wild to me that everyone's just
assuming this this part of Kyle Shanahanwas an idiot, because it doesn't make
sense. I think this is wherepeople know that he's he's been a choke
artist, and that's a separate thing, but they want to like have that
like go to dumb moment with him, and they they're trying to make it

(45:27):
this and it's not this it's thathe got away from the run in the
second half multiple times now in SuperBowl, so that that's what it is.
It's not it is not the coinflip. Please tweet at me,
come at me, at TKO,at t KO underscore picks on Twitter.
I'd love to hear the logic ifthat if you disagree with what I said,
because to me, there's no logicalreason to say he's an idiot for

(45:52):
that, and it's sorry, I'mgonna close out that we're gonna close out
with a coin flip because that thatwas grinding my gears all week, or
I don't understand everyone coming at himlike I understand that you can make the
case for the other side, andthat's fine. I'm not saying that you're
wrong by if you kick the ball, but there's definitely no way that you're

(46:14):
logically wrong by taking it either.I think it's a decent rule in the
NFL where you can make the caseeither way. Where they have that coin
flip, it's a lot better thanwhat the hell they had before. If
you remember when I was spurred bythat Mahomes Josh Allen game from a couple
of years back, all right beforeI keep getting two heated about coin flips.
I'm gonna call it a night.Folks, enjoy NBA All Star Weekend.

(46:34):
Stay tuned. Coming up later onThe Gambler, we've got Sean Brace
and all the guys doing a Sixersround table talking all things with your Philadelphia
seventy six ers. Stay tuned forthat, and I will be back with
you next week on Balls, Batsand Bets. I'm Tim o'keefan as always,
have a great weekend and everybody,talk to you soon.