August 30, 2025 • 51 mins
The CFB Sickos convene for the first College Football Betting Preview of the 2025 season! Joe Tansey, Ryan "BEEF" Coyle", and Mark Henry Jr. dive into all the action and numbers that matter for this weekend!
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Number one on your car radio preset hand the new
and improved Diehard Radio app w d W D two
seven Bring Date Philadelphia. I is Fox Sports Radio the Gambling.
(00:28):
Hello everyone, and welcome on in too. Week one college
football betting preview with the Sickos. We're back for another year, myself,
Joe Tanzy, Ryan Coyle, Mark Henry Jr. We're all ready
to go boys right and it's it's so nice to
have college football back. A Schmorgas sport Thursday, Friday, Saturday, Sunday, Monday,
(00:50):
even this week. Uh, I'm looking forward to this so much?
How much are you guys looking forward to Week one
of college football season?
Speaker 2 (01:02):
My first college football season in my new little bachelor
pad with my friends. So three TVs, A seventy five
insure it's going to be a Saturday. We already have
the plan for takeout, get a couple of thirty RECs
and having some friends over, so it should be a
fun day. Wall to wall Saturday, but some good appetizers Thursday,
a couple of really good ones on Friday and Sunday
(01:23):
two good ones and Monday and interesting one as well.
Speaker 3 (01:25):
So fun fun five days stretch ahead.
Speaker 4 (01:27):
Here got the fantasy draft on Friday with all that stuff.
On Saturday, you have wall to wall.
Speaker 1 (01:35):
How much more can you ask for?
Speaker 5 (01:37):
You have one verse three, you have lsu cleansing, and
then I gotta wait all weekend until Sunday night eventually
have my heart ripped out in August for.
Speaker 1 (01:47):
Notre Dame season.
Speaker 4 (01:50):
And then you're not not even mentioning Monday night with
TCU in North Carolina where you get to see Belichick.
There's a storyline for each day early Thursday, Friday, Saturday, Sunday,
Monday that you can find something to grab onto.
Speaker 1 (02:05):
And I really think Friday is gonna be the underrated
day to day. That kind of pops out at everybody, like, oh,
these games are actually gonna be decent. But let's let's
cut the crab. Let's start with the big one, Texas
versus Ohio State. This should be number one versus number two.
Do not let the AP voters tell you this isn't
one versus two. With all due respect to Penn State,
they'll be number two, but there'll be number two for
(02:28):
long enough. We want one versus two. It's one versus
three if you go by the coaches pull, which I
don't think anybody does. Ever, It's one versus two either way,
it's Texas versus Ohio State. It is a massive, massive
game to start the season. The reign of Arch Manning
officially begins at Texas with no Queen yours. Ohio State
now the reigning national champion with I would say the
(02:52):
two best players in the country at their positions in
Jeremiah Smith and camp Down. So maybe the two best
players individually in the entire country, with how talented both
of them are. Games in Columbus, there are still all
sorts of fan for already around this boys. Ohio State's
a one and a half point favorite. The over under
sits at forty seven and a half. Now that we've
(03:13):
done his offseason breakdowns, it's time to get into the
nitty gritty. Who's winning this game? I'm going hook him.
Speaker 2 (03:21):
I think this is kind of Arches, you know, welcome,
Welcome to the big League's type of moment, and he
goes out there and puts on a bit of a show.
I do think it's going to be a little bit
of a lower scoring game with these two younger and
inexperienced quarterbacks. But I just like a little bit more
of what Texas has returning and the continuity on the
coaching staff as well, Like what's Brian Hartline gonna look
(03:41):
like at OC for Ohio State? Matt Patricia the defensive coordinator,
his last few jobs in the NFL have been a disaster,
what is he going to look like at the DC
spot there? So I think one of the big things
with Texas, and I heard this more and more throughout
the week starts back for year five. Offensive coordinator, back
for year five, DC, back for your five, special teams coordinator,
back for your five, A lot more at continuity on
(04:03):
that coaching staff. Arch you know, had a couple of
coffee with a couple of games last year, but this
is year three, learning in the system now, so I'm
just a little bit more experience in continuity on that side.
That's a big spot for Julian saying in his first
real taste of college football to go out there. So
I'm gonna take Texas to win, but it's a game.
I'm not gonna be surprised either way. The only thing
(04:24):
I'll be surprised at is either side blows us out.
I think this is a real close one down in
the fourth.
Speaker 4 (04:28):
Quarter, I agree, this isn't one that I'm all that
confident in. You know, you can break it down from
any angle you want, no matter where I come out,
I'm like, how could you be that confident in either
side to lose? Really, le's about picking either side to win.
(04:49):
Picking one of these sides means you're picking the other
to lose. It means arch Manning's starting one one. It
means Ohio State coming off of, you know, one of
the more impressive championship runs of all time, and new
playoff format starts zing one in the next year. I
will just say I think in general, I've been surprised
at I don't know if it's Ohigo State skepticism or
(05:10):
just a lack of I know it's a new world
and things change year to year, and things are going
to change very much year to year at the top
of the sport, even but I've been surprised at the
way that people are not hyping up the defending champion
that returns I think two of the best players.
Speaker 1 (05:28):
But you're good, are we good? Yeah? You're good? Mark, Yeah, Yeah.
Speaker 4 (05:36):
I just I've been surprised because I, like you mentioned,
I think Jeremiah Smith and Caleb down to the two
best players in the country, and I understand that they
lost guys. Are we saying Will Howard was this special
quarterback that they can't replace, that Chip Kelly was a
special play caller they can't replace. He was only there
for one year. And the DC has kind of bounced
(05:58):
around year after year after year. It feels like at
Ohio State, I just think that at this point this
team replenishes. If it was in Austin, I'd probably be
picking Texas, But whether it being in Columbus, I'm siding
with Ohio State. Not very complimently, though.
Speaker 1 (06:14):
I think it's gonna be a very close game. The
one X factor you're out here is how do you
defend Jeremiah Smith? Like, what what is Texas going to
do to contain him? Do you let him go over
the top and make a few big plays? Do you
challenge the Carnel Tate and some of the other targets
you know, I have the State's been the wide receiver
(06:36):
factory over the last few years, and and Tate kind
of slips into this Mecca Egbuca role, who I think
that was probably the most important guy they lose Meccagbuka
was just so good and we'll see why in the NFL.
Like he's a very talented pass catcher. I think that's
going to be a huge loss. The one addition they
(06:57):
make that really intrigues me is Max Claire the tight
end from too. Obviously, we don't pay attention to Purdue
football unless they're playing number two at home in West
Lafayette and like mid October, because that's the thing. But
I think that's a very nice addition at tight end
and something that will will help Julian say in. But
there's more consistency right over on Texas's side of the
(07:19):
ball from what they brought back last year. Yes, the
quarterback is different, but like you mentioned, if the coordinators
are the same, the head coaches the same, and arch Manning,
it seems like he's coming in with a lot of confidence, right.
So it's going to be very fascinating to see how
this game plays out. I do think it's going to
be a close game. I just don't know which way
(07:40):
to which way to go. I really do think it's
gonna be one of those those battles. And if it's
if a team does win this by double digits, I'd
be very surprised. The other thing I'll also say is
being zero and one in September in stage of college football,
means absolutely nothing. It really doesn't mean a thing. Being
(08:01):
going to being Owen three one to three that matters
because then you're on the verge of not making the playoff.
But in a twelve team playoff situation, here look, one
of these teams is gonna lose. Both of these teams
are probably gonna be in the playoff. This isn't like
the BCS era where it's like, well you lost, well,
good luck trying to make it back into the playoff
(08:22):
conversation the rest of the season. So I think it's
gonna be very close. I think I'm kind of leaning Texas.
I don't know if I have an official play on
this game, but if I did, I think i'd bet
I'd go to Texas. And but it's gonna be so,
so super close, and I hope it's a great spectacle
(08:45):
for college football. And I hope we get a new
nickname for Jeremiah Smith from Gus Johnson because it's been
a few years now since Maserati.
Speaker 3 (08:52):
Marvh Jeremiah was a bullfrog and gotta go with that one.
Speaker 1 (08:57):
There's there's gonna be something that we're just like that
we jump out and we're like, oh my god, why
why It's gonna be so insufferable all season? Because Ohio
State is gonna be big, new quite a lot, I assume,
But yeah, I think it's gonna be very, very very close.
Is there anything I guess in this game? Maybe from
a first half perspective, because this is the game everybody's
(09:19):
gonna be watching the first half over under twenty three
and a half. If this is a game where the
new coordinators on Ohio State side, new guys on each
side Arch and say and feeling themselves out, is this
maybe a first half angle? Potentially, given the circumstances with
both teams and it being the biggest game on the.
Speaker 2 (09:41):
Schedule this week, I do think you could see both
sides kind of start out slow, maybe even like a
first quarter what's first quarter under coming in like ten
and a half. But you also kind of played the
dangerous game where Arch has shown that he's very versatile
and very explosive with his legs. He can bust off
a fifty yard run Jeremiah Smith. All it takes as
one as well. So it's like, do you really want
(10:02):
to tap into potentially in under when you have so
much talent on both sides. It just might take a
little bit for these two teams to get going, might
take a few drives for them to get cooking. But
it's not a side that I feel confident in because
it's you have so much talent that could take the
ball to the house on any given snap.
Speaker 3 (10:22):
So I'm not really looking at it from that angle, to.
Speaker 2 (10:25):
Be honest, might not even bet this game it just
because it's such a pure coin flip and so much
speculation and projection. More So, I sit back, watch and
let's look at what we might have for the rest
of the season type of game for me.
Speaker 1 (10:39):
So I'm going to open that up to a wider
Week one conversation. There are so many unknowns, and even
more unknowns than we have had in the past because
there's so many changing parts. I mean, you look at
the group of five level, there are certain teams that
literally uprooted from one spot and now on the other.
So then Miss for example, they took half of Marshall's team.
(11:00):
It feels like and their head coach, how do you
approach Week one, do you appre approach it with more
trepidation than you had in the past because of all
the changes, Like how how does the week one approach
or what does the week one approach look like now
in twenty twenty five with the portal all of all
(11:21):
these movements elsewhere, and it feels like some of these
teams are completely different teams, you know, give it like
a Syracuse for an example in Tennessee, even without Nico.
How do you approach week one from a betting perspective.
Speaker 4 (11:40):
Yeah, I'm scared of the big numbers. I can't lie.
I stay away from the big numbers, and I kind
of focus on these closer spreads, and I'm kind of
preaching I'm not going to be doing the crazy ten
to fifteen play cards this year. I'm gonna try to
keep you know, six to eight plays on a Saturday.
It's a little different this weekend with spread out, but
(12:02):
I'm kind of focused on the I guess I have
one double digit spread, but every out of my seven
bets that I'm definitely going to make, five of them
are four point spreads are lower, So I guess early
in the year I'm taking a look at not pick
them games, but games that are a little bit closer,
(12:23):
and you're, you know, making your pick based on what
you've read and what you believe about these teams coming
into the year.
Speaker 2 (12:29):
But yeah, I.
Speaker 4 (12:32):
It's interesting because I have a couple written down that
we'll get to later after we do the big games,
or I'm going to pitch it to you guys and
be like, convince me why I should or shouldn't bet
this basically, And that's where we're at right now. It
is obviously the wild wild West this year, and in
general I think going forward early on in the college football.
Speaker 2 (12:52):
Season, Yeah, I'm the same way where it's you can
pride yourself on the off season research and read up
on as much and do as much podcast listening.
Speaker 3 (13:03):
But there's so many moving.
Speaker 2 (13:04):
Parts, even more than the NFL these days, and especially
in key positions like quarterback, Like how many quarterbacks in
the NFL this year weren't the starter last year?
Speaker 3 (13:14):
Like eight or so?
Speaker 2 (13:15):
In major spots like you look at this year, there
are so many major changes and a lot of these
guys like Arts like saying they were in the program
last year, but it's really going to be our first
time seeing them play extended ball. Like guys outside of
Drew Aller or Kate club Nick or Garrett nus Meyer,
there's a lot of guys that are being flushed into
new spots.
Speaker 3 (13:33):
So I really think you kind of got to take
your time.
Speaker 2 (13:36):
Week one, Week two, you might get a big matchup,
but really it starts to get into two, week three,
week four where I feel like you can start to
feel comfortable. Sure, people are gonna want to have some action,
maybe plays put some small clips, but I definitely say
wait to see these teams actually out there and see
how all these new pieces, whether it's recruits are in
the portal, are really looking before you're firing off some
of your bigger bets of the season.
Speaker 1 (13:57):
So let's talk about too, the guy guys that are
still in their spot at quarterback, and that's Garrett Nice
nuss Meyer and Kate club Nick. There's potential for Clemson
LSU to be better than Texas Ohio State from an
entertainment perspective. I know there's a few people here that
are are huge on LSU. If my memory is correct,
(14:19):
though Brian Kelly has not won a Week one game
at LSU. Now, look, there's been some weird circumstances, So
I guess, I guess you have to add maybe a
caveat or two into that stat But the stats are
still the stats. He has not won a Week one
game since arriving at LSU. They go to the other
death Valley. We can have a discussion too about who's
(14:40):
the real death Valley, and I think that's a bat bruge.
But that's besides the point. Clemson's a three and a
half point favorite at home at night over under his
fifty seven and a half. Look, I've kind of looked
at all the angles at this and I know we
talked last week in one of our previews about Kate
club Nick and Clemson getting all the hype. I know, Mark,
(15:02):
you were critical of that. I just I look at
the game objectively. I think Clemson's the side. I just
my gut is telling me, and I wish I had
like more convincing evidence other than my gut, But Clemson
at home, Brian Kelly stumbled out of the gate three times.
(15:22):
Now at LSU, I'm going Clemson, And I know that's
a contrarian opinion to the other guys in the screen.
Speaker 2 (15:30):
Right now, I think Clemson. Yeah, I'm on Clemson as well.
This is probably more of a stay away for me
though than the Ohio State Texas game. Like, if you
made me make a bet between the two of them,
I probably take Texas over Ohio State rather than taking
Clemson with the four against LSU.
Speaker 3 (15:47):
It's just one of those things where it's like Brian
Kelly hasn't.
Speaker 2 (15:50):
Done it yet, why would I trust him now in
this spot, which is maybe the toughest test that he's
had out of these Week one games. Potentially so and Elsie,
I have LSU going to the National championship game. I've
been losing in the National Championship game. I just think
it's it's a tough spot out of the gate, and
I haven't seen a Brian Kelly LSU team do it,
And it's a spot where I think they could come
out a little bit tight too. Would I be surprised
(16:12):
if they go there and win it all? No, But
that's kind of why I don't have a particular feel.
But I'm just not confident enough to put a play
out there, put a money on a play for a
Brian Kelly led team that I haven't seen do it
in this spot yet.
Speaker 4 (16:25):
LSU is winning this game out right, Clemson's one of
the bigger frauds ever been perpetrated on the public. The
way people are talking about this team like they're a
title contender. They're the same team that got smoked by
South Carolina, had South Carolina doing TikTok dances all over
their field on Week fourteen. They have the same Oh
I keep hearing about these two receivers they were there
(16:45):
against South Carolina. Keep hearing about all these defensive linemen
they were there against South Carolina. Keep hearing about Kate Klubbick.
He was there against South Carolina. Keep hearing about the
running backs they were there against South Carolina. It's the
same team. I don't know how this ten and three
team turned into some war old beating national title contender
this year. I really don't get it. It's one of
the bigg It's one of the most perplexing things I've
(17:07):
ever seen in preseason college football, especially in this era
where things are changing so much. Let's go with the
team that change the least. I don't know. I don't
get it at all, And you could throw the same
things at me with LSU. This is a bet against
Clemson more than a bet on LSU. Maybe I'm maybe
I'm off there. I think that it's a joke the
(17:28):
way Clemson's being talked about, and I think there's a
good chance LSU wins this game by double digits. I
think nuss Meyer's the better quarterback in this game. And actually,
if we're just talking about this game is bigger for
It's way bigger for LSU. Clemson goes and plays an
acc schedule the rest of the year, whereas LSU gets
to have you know, Alabama and Georgia and everything that's
(17:51):
on Texas A and M everything that's on their schedule.
I think it's a way bigger, way, way, way bigger
game for LSU. And Brian kelly Is also said how
they've put way more of an emphasis on this Week
one than they have in years past, to the point
where he's even wondered aloud if it's like detrimental. He's like,
we might be putting too much of an emphasis on
(18:12):
this Week one, and maybe we were doing the right
thing in the past and it just hadn't didn't pan out.
But they are going full guns plays for this game one.
This is my favorite bet of my line. Yeah, yeah,
it's my favorite bet. Of Saturday, not of the weekend.
But my favorite bet.
Speaker 1 (18:30):
Actually, I'd actually counter your your point there. I think
it might be more important for Clemson, and the reason why.
The reason why I say that is because if you
look at where they are in the a SEC, Yes,
they're going to make the playoff if they handle business
like everyone expects they're going to. But if you look
at the rest of their schedule, there's no game on
(18:54):
this schedule right now at least that you can pinpoint
and say, Okay, we're gonna develop an opinion on Clemson
on outside of their two games against SEC opponents. I'm
not huge on South Carolina. I think that the number
next to them is a little too high and will
be proven throughout the year. Still a rivalry game, but
you have LSU at the start, South Carolina at the finish,
(19:18):
and there really isn't much in between. We really don't know.
I mean, we have mixed opinions on who's going to
be the second or third best teams in the ACC.
But they don't play Miami. They play Louisville on the
road on a Friday night in November. So maybe that's
the point where we pay attention to them. But they
could win a lot of games by fifteen to twenty
(19:39):
points more from the second LSU leaves Clemson South Carolina
to the time that they play the Game Cocks. It
really could be that. So I think from a schedule
perspective and from a national conversation perspective, Clemson's got a
little more meaning on this one because LSU is going
(19:59):
to play how many ranked teams five to six in
SEC play and we'll have plenty of other I think.
I think that's where you could argue Clemson it means
more just because everyone expects them to win the nine
or ten games. But this is one where people will
develop a national opinion on Clemson, good or bad.
Speaker 4 (20:20):
National opinions already that they're gonna go win the championship,
or listen to any podcast that's talking about it, and
they're picking them to win the championship. So I think,
and also I guess my other question is in a
twelve team playoff, ara does that even matter anymore? Like
the earning the creditor the public? Like, I think at
this point all the matters is just getting there. I
like we saw with Ohio State. So I do think
(20:43):
if you.
Speaker 6 (20:44):
If ellas you loses this game, it decreases those chances
by a lot more than clemson chances decrease of going
to the playoff.
Speaker 1 (20:55):
I think.
Speaker 2 (20:58):
I think it says as of now it's forty four percent,
like ESPNFBI had it down to twenty one percent if
they lose this game.
Speaker 4 (21:04):
Yeah, it seems fair.
Speaker 1 (21:07):
It's it'll be interesting to see how the I love
how seeing the narratives come off of Week one because
there are a lot of unknowns about these teams. Like
like you said, Mark, Clemson is front and center in
the spotlight, whether you like it or not. They're they're there.
We'll find out if they belong there pretty quickly. And
if Kate Klubnick is actually going to be in that
(21:28):
conversation of the top fives to ten quarterbacks, there's a
chance he could be an average quarterback still and Clemson
could just not not be in that upper tier where
the Ohio States and the Penn States and the Texas are.
It'd be fascinating to see how the narrative goes a team. Also,
(21:48):
who whose narrative? I think it's just perennially against them
under Mario Cristobal is Miami. I'll sit here, right now,
I can tell you what's gonna happen with myami. They're
gonna win eight nine game, but when it comes down
to games that matter, it's not gonna happen. They're gonna
blow it. Carson beck the jury. I don't know how
(22:13):
it's still out on Carson Becky where he's gonna go
to Miami and be completely fixed. He showed a lot
of flaws last year at Georgia. I don't see a
world actually where Notre Dame loses this game. Mark Henry,
you're the resident, You're the resident Irish fan. What's the
I guess what's the feeling on this game from from
(22:35):
your perspective? They're two and a half points favorite going
into Miami on Sunday night.
Speaker 4 (22:39):
I feel surprisingly good. I think we're all a little
bit lower on Miami and consensus, and I know Tansey
and I have just we've been crystal Ball haters for
longer than it's been cool to be. I would say
so christa fraud, as T Bob calls him from the Unmissary,
(23:00):
because anytime I can fade him in a big game,
I'll take that opportunity. Dating back to or his if
someone can look it up. His career coaching record is
shockingly not good, like you would think given the amount
of years he's coached at Oregon in Miami that it
would be, you know, just decent based on I don't
like geography basically, but it is not impressive that just.
Speaker 1 (23:25):
Happened in front of me.
Speaker 2 (23:27):
FIU.
Speaker 3 (23:29):
Yeah yeah, I think it was five and fifty five
something around there.
Speaker 1 (23:34):
He was twenty seven and forty seven in FIU, thirty
five and thirteen at Oregon and two and sixteen at Miami.
Speaker 4 (23:43):
Sixteen is not I think that's worse than most people
would guess. If you think so too, what's his record
at Miami. I don't think people would guess whatever that
win percentage is.
Speaker 3 (23:52):
I don't think seven wins till till last season.
Speaker 2 (23:56):
Yeah. Seven.
Speaker 1 (23:57):
I think it had seven wins the second year, but
it was just seven wins.
Speaker 4 (24:00):
Yeah.
Speaker 1 (24:01):
Yeah.
Speaker 4 (24:02):
I am very happy that this game, Like I am
much more scared of A and M coming to South
Bend in Week three than I am of this game
going to Miami, and I kind of love that we're
getting Week one against Carson Beck with whatever this surgically
repair his shoulder is going to look like I think
(24:23):
that the defense is going to against Carson Beck and
against Miami. Miami lost all the pass catchers from last year.
They lost Damien Martinez, who ran for I don't know,
fifteen hundred yards. You obviously lose the Heisman and cam
Wood and you're replacing all of those guys, and you're
replacing a ton on the offensive line. I know that
they spend a ton of money. The offensive line is
going to be really good, but I don't think it's
(24:45):
gonna matter. I think Carson Beck is going to really
really struggle in this game. I'm not as much of
a Beck hater as I think Beef is, but I
love getting the first crack at him. I much rather
play Miami week one than play them in two three months,
when Beck has played a bunch and is back in
the swing of things. Now you can throw it back
(25:06):
at me and say, we have no idea what CJ.
Carr is, and I feel like there's been a bit
of a a bit of a maybe it's just barstool,
but Brandon Walker and a couple other big college football
guys out there not picking Notre Dame to go to
the playoff this year, and they're citing CJ. Carr, And
(25:26):
it's just funny because they're the same people all year
last year who said Notre Dame shouldn't be taken seriously
because they can't throw the ball. They're Riley Leonard's running back.
They can't throw the ball. But now they have a
new quarterback and we're just assuming he's worse than Riley
le I he's probably not, as he's not gonna be
the runner Riley Leonard was, but they probably will have
a better passing offense if I had to guess. So
(25:50):
I'm optimistic about Carr. He's been a guy I've heard
about for a long time, and I do think if
things go wrong, I think they'll go to winsheet pretty quickly.
And Minshi's more of a dual threat guy, more of
a run and a round guy. And I think if
Notre Dame, like you said, you said, you can't see
a scenario Notre Dame loses. Now that scenario is the quarterback.
(26:12):
Can't you play the guitar? But I would say I
don't see a scenario Notre Dame gets blown out. So
if CJ. Carr really struggle with these first two or
three quarters, I still think Notre Dame will be within
seven to ten points. You throw Kenny Minchi out there,
maybe you just do kind of an option offense a
little bit and you kind of hope to save it
that way. But I feel pretty good. I'm pretty confident
(26:35):
in this one.
Speaker 1 (26:36):
At some point, you have to understand, these guys have
told us who they are, Like, there's enough of a
sample size on a handful of these guys, and Carson
Beck is the primary example. Am Using here is we
have enough of a sample size on him from another
program at Georgia. He's going to a program that is
(26:56):
further down the totem pole in college football in Miami.
I just I'm not buying what everybody else is selling
on Carson Beck. I need to be proven wrong before
we get to that point where I can say, yeah,
Carson Beck is going to help Miami get to the
playoffs and maybe win the ACC. But oh, by the way,
I just want to point this out and keep this
(27:18):
in your head for future. Notice Miami closes the season
at Virginia Tech and at Pittsburgh Mero Crystobal loses at
least one of those games, maybe both, because that is
just what his track record is again, a lot of beef.
These coaches tell us. I have already told us who
they are as coaches, how they deal with situations. Carson
Beck quarterback, who we know what he deals with these
(27:39):
situations beef. I think you'd agree with me on Carson Beck.
Speaker 2 (27:43):
Yeah, I think this Miami team is going to be
closer to missing a bowl game than to going to
the playoffs.
Speaker 3 (27:49):
That's one of my it to me, that's one of
my big takes on the season.
Speaker 2 (27:52):
I think when you look at Beck as well, like
he's not throwing to Lad mcconki and Brock Bauers, Like
Brock Bowers is arguably already the best tight end in
the NFL. Lad McConkie had a damn good first year
where we're not really much was expected, And those are
two guys that Brower is probably favorite for first Seamo
protite on this year. Ladd McConkie I think will be
one of the best slot receivers in the entire league.
(28:14):
And when Carson Beck had his best year is when
he was thrown to those guys with Hall of Fame
level defensive talent behind him as well.
Speaker 3 (28:21):
So it's not the same situation.
Speaker 2 (28:23):
I was much higher on Miami going into last year
with cam Ward, and I thought cam Ward proved me
right for most of the season. They had a couple
games down the stretch there where they struggled, but it
wasn't the offensive fault. And we saw cam Ward go
from Lazoo to the number one overall pick, and that
was a big jump.
Speaker 3 (28:39):
Now I'm the.
Speaker 2 (28:40):
Complete opposite direction on this Miami team. I think I
actually had them going six and six, so just cracking
a bowl game. But some people have them as acc champs,
some people have them as a sure fired playoff team.
I think they're going to be a lot closer to
missing the playoff or excuse me, missing a bowl game
than even going to the playoff.
Speaker 3 (28:58):
And that starts Week one here. Love no name in
this spot, and I think.
Speaker 2 (29:01):
It's a great opportunity for Marcus Freeman to basically show like,
you know, as long as I'm here, we're going to
be in the mix every single year. Great opportunity here
against the number ten team in the country, go out,
make a statement, and I think you get a double
digit win on the road. Here.
Speaker 1 (29:14):
Mark's scary, No, no, this is we all hate Miami.
Speaker 4 (29:22):
We all me and you hate Christmas all Beef hate
Carson beck uh beef once in on the Cavender Twins
and it was with the Ice in the Mountain. But
you mentioned and this is not the right the right
spot to bring this up. But I feel like I've
said this in the chat and I don't think I've
ever said about any of our there's never really.
Speaker 1 (29:40):
A good spot to bring up pitt football. And they're
just there.
Speaker 4 (29:43):
No, I a lot. It's funny. I mean, Tansey and
Beef know this. I'm in Indiana and I was training
someone and I told him I was from Philadelphia and
they're like, oh, I want to visit so bad and
go to Pittsburgh.
Speaker 7 (29:55):
I'm like, not, folksurgh not, I get it. Same state, YadA, YadA, YadA,
but not close. But anyway, pitt greater than Georgia Tech.
Georgia Tech has all the hype. Eli Holstein. If I
was making a bet on kind of the dark horse
ACC team, listen to the first nine games of Pitt's schedule.
(30:17):
This is this random tangent here. The first nine games
of Pitts.
Speaker 4 (30:20):
Schedule Ducaine at home, Central Michigan at West Virginia. I
think West Virginia stinks. Louisville at home. I think it's
a really tough game, but at least you get it
at home. In Louisville's traveling a long way there. Boston
College at home. I think Boston College stinks. Florida State
at home. I think Florida State stanks at Syracuse Syracuse. Oh,
you're right, it is again. I saw PC and yeah, yeah,
(30:43):
Roague game at Florida State at Syracuse. Not a very
tough game. NC State at home, not a very tough
game at Stanford. We just watched Stanford. They closed the
year with three really tough games. Notre Dame at home,
at Georgia Tech, Miami at home. As we just said,
Miami's losing one of those games. We already know that,
but at least you get Miami and Notre Dame of home.
(31:04):
I think Pitt's like an eight ish, maybe maybe even
nine wins if I was if I was looking for
the dark horse. There's been a lot of buzz for
Georgia Tech and in Differently, I wouldn't say Miami is
a dark horse, but like be said, there's buzz there.
Brandon Walker picked him to go to the playoffs. I
was looking for that dark horse ACC team, and I
don't know if Louisville even counts as that anymore. I
would look at Pit.
Speaker 2 (31:24):
That's I feel like we have so many takes in
this one. Like I think Miami is gonna suck. I
think Georgia Tech has a chance to be really good.
I know, Mark, you're really high in Louisville. You're talking
about Pitt.
Speaker 3 (31:35):
I think we have a lot of deep rooted opinions
here in the ACC, which is fascinating because it's probably
the least like.
Speaker 1 (31:42):
The least fascinating of the four conferences.
Speaker 4 (31:44):
Yeah, I know's in on Duke. I'm out on Duke
because of Elik Murphy. Shout out my guy, Malik Murphy.
I'll ride for him. Uh, We're all out on Carolina.
Speaker 1 (31:53):
I think.
Speaker 4 (31:55):
I'm out on Clemson. I've got that take.
Speaker 1 (31:57):
Let's let's bring another team into the because this was
a guy that I was very in on at his
previous stop, but now all he's done is run his mouth.
I mean, I don't know if he's gonna thrive in Tallahassee.
Thomas Castillanos and the Florida State seminoles. I guess that's
the top second tier game. Bama is going into Tallahassee
(32:21):
this weekend. Let's talk about it before we get into
the cards. I think it's only fair. It's a fourteen
point spread and favorite Bama. I think that's fair. Does
Florida State show us anything in this game to maybe
like throw them into the mix? I just I love Pastianos,
(32:42):
a unheralded quarterback at Boston College. Like he seems like
a guy that thrives in like the underdog role and
somebody who is just he's just a gritty, dual threat
quarterback and he's a perfect college quarterback taking the step
to Florida State. I don't I don't know if I
love him as much. Uh, this is all just a
(33:06):
way for me to say I think I'm gonna take
Bama by two touchdowns. And oh, by the way, Ryan
Williams still exists.
Speaker 4 (33:12):
Yeah, we talked a little about.
Speaker 1 (33:15):
We talked about Jeremiah Smith a lot, so I think
it's only fair to to bring him up. And oh,
by the way, they brought Darien Grubb down there to
be their offensive coordinator who had so much success. Not
darre It's I think Darian Grubbs a NASCAR.
Speaker 4 (33:32):
I was gonna say, did Ryan Grub become black over
the so many sports going on?
Speaker 1 (33:38):
It's Oh, yeah, No, Darian Grubb is a NASCAR crew chief,
so I'm running my two sports Ryan Ryan Grubb. Yeah,
my brother in law works in NASCAR. So I think
having Grub an offensive coordinator where he worked so well
(34:00):
with Kaylin de Boord Washington, I think that is gonna
end up having a lot of success there, no matter
who the quarterback is. I think Bama makes a little bit. Again,
it's Florida State, so it's not too much of a
statement given the rankings, but I think Bama could have
some people talking about them by the end of this
weekend as well.
Speaker 4 (34:21):
This is the least any BAMA team's ever been talked
about coming into.
Speaker 1 (34:24):
Which is scary, which is exactly what Alabama.
Speaker 3 (34:27):
Georgia I think them and Georgia.
Speaker 4 (34:29):
Yeah, I agree with that. Yeah, I think Georgia has
been talked about more than Bama. I guess I feel
like I've heard Gunner Stockton buzz more than I've heard
anything about TJ. Simpson or is that the right name?
Did I get to ty Ty Simpson?
Speaker 1 (34:44):
You at least have the fright first letter.
Speaker 4 (34:46):
Who's TJ Simpson. That's gotta be someone out there, Marshall, Yeah,
Tye Simpson. I kind of think this is a bigger
game for Bama and Florida State. If you're Florida State,
everybody knows what to expect you. It's kind of like
when they played Wisconsin last year. But if you're Bama,
like you've went through this whole offseason listening to Arch Manning,
listening to Texas, listen to people talking about Leonora Sellers,
(35:09):
listening to all these SEC teams that are apparently going
to make the playoff over you, and I've seen a
lot of people pick you to miss the playoff for
Alabama twelve team playoff coming off of one where you
missed last year. I kind of I'm tempted. I was
gonna ask you guys convinced me to bet or not
bet on Bama. I think I'm going to end up
(35:31):
betting on Bama. But what I will say for the
wives and girlfriends out there, three point thirty probably the
slate to take off if you're looking to, you know,
save your marriage in week one.
Speaker 1 (35:42):
We say that for like week six when everybody when
there's no top twenty five mashups. Right, It's it's Week
one football stack. All right, let's move into Let's do
a quick run over of Thursday and Friday. There's a
handful of intriguing games. I think Friday we agree on.
There's two big ones, at least in terms of a
Friday night State in Georgia Tech Colorado and alf Taylor.
(36:02):
But first let's go to Thursday. I keep wanting to
bet Cincinnati against Nebraska, and then I remember that neutral
Sight game, So I'm with that.
Speaker 4 (36:15):
Why do you want to bet Sincy there?
Speaker 1 (36:18):
Because I thought it was the Cincinnati home game, Okay,
and it's very much not. I just my brain gets
so warped this time of year, reading previews and overthinking myself.
But I do think a home a actual home dog
that's worth looking into. A South Florida plus five and
a half against Boise State. Look, boise is the better
(36:40):
team and it'll probably end up being the better team.
I'm a Byron Brown believer. I think he's one of
the best group of five quarterbacks. It's a shame he
hasn't been able to stay healthy, But I think South Florida, Look,
it's a five thirty Eastern kickoff. You're right in the
middle of the heat in Tampa. Still, it's one of
those weird games, like why would boys you agree to this? Look,
(37:04):
South Florida hasn't been the best, but still, why would
you agree to that? I like South Florida. I think
that's a sneaky little dog to open the season with.
I don't think there's much else really on the Thursday
Night Slate other than we're going to develop an opinion
on Dylan Royola and what he actually like. That is
the Thursday Night takeaway. What is Dylan Roola in twenty
(37:29):
twenty five? But I can't tell you that. And I
don't feel entirely confident in betting on Nebraska, but South
Florida I do.
Speaker 2 (37:37):
It's an interesting kickoff, a little five thirty happy hour there.
I got three things I'm looking at, haven't placed any
of them yet, But Buffalo plus seventeen and a half
I'm against Minnesota. Buffalo won nine games last year, one
of the favorites in the MAC this year. Miami of
Ohio plus seventeen and a half.
Speaker 3 (37:55):
Always win eight to nine games.
Speaker 2 (37:56):
There they're playing Wisconsin, and Wisconsin team that if they
don't win this game. They they Luke Fickle might get
fired now because they have arguably the toughest schedule in
the country, but that's a.
Speaker 3 (38:06):
Tough one to start with. In East Carolina plus fourteen.
Speaker 2 (38:09):
East Carolina over the past couple of years has actually
been pretty decent. And they're playing an NC State team
that I think is a huge unknown there, and that's
a rivalry game as well. Brace was kind of hyping
that up earlier. That's two schools that's kind of a
bit of an underrated rivalry. So three kind of group
of five teams that I'm lying up there against some
power forward teams.
Speaker 1 (38:30):
I'm just gonna have real quick. I think that I'm
looking at the Missouri under against Central Arkansas only because
that quarterback situation could go down south really quick. You've
both revealed the transfer from Penn State and Sam Horney,
who they're both supposed to get snaps. Look, I know
they're playing an FCS school, but that might be a
(38:51):
sloppy offensive game from Missouri. They'll win it by thirty,
but I think looking at that under maybe something worth
because I got a big question mark about what Missouri
looks like on offense, especially with their quarterbacks.
Speaker 4 (39:03):
I'm a bow leaver bo Prabula. I think will we'll
be fine by fine.
Speaker 8 (39:09):
I think they'll win the eight games, but that's fine
at Missouri. Yeah, that's Missouri football. Eight and four maybe.
But the only game that has my eye on Thursday
is Nebraska. I'm taking Nebraska minus six and a half.
I think the Cincinnati team stinks. I hate Scott Sadderfield.
I think that guy's an absolute loser. And you look
(39:29):
at how Cincinnati closed the year last year. They start
the season going five and two and beating in Week
seven or their seventh game, I should say they beat
Arizona State twenty four to fourteen at home, and then
Arizona State eventually goes to the playoff after that game
lost lost lost lost loss.
Speaker 4 (39:51):
It was five in a row to close out your season,
including you know, West Virginia, two CU teams that were
not all that good last year. I think Cincinnati I
see no reasonablieve they're not going to be one of
the worst teams in the Big twelve. And if you
crunch the numbers, two of their five wins were against
thousand in Miami of Ohio. I think Cincinnati is gonna
(40:13):
stink this year. So Nebraska is another one of these
teams where I read off the schedule for Pittsburgh and
I know we've done this with Nebraska before, and I
think I did this with Nebraska literally last year where
I was saying, oh, look at the schedule, they have
to go nine and three, they have all these easy games.
(40:36):
But look at the schedule, they have to go nine
and three, they have all these easy games. They at Cincinnati,
I think it's a win. Akron, I think that's a win.
Houston Christian think that's a win. And then you get
Michigan at home. Tough game, but it's a home game.
Michigan State at home. Not I wouldn't say tough or
not tough. At Maryland one of the easiest road trips
(40:58):
you can make in the Big Ten. Minnesota one of
the easiest road trips you can make in the Big Ten.
Northwestern at home. I think they're cradd as, like one
of the least talented teams in the Power five. USC
at home at least that games at home at u
c l A. There's not gonna be any fans there,
so it's not who cares. It's a road trip, but
you know, it's just traveling at Penn State it's a loss,
and then Iowa at home. There's only one gimme loss
(41:21):
on that schedule, and I think there's probably i'd say
three tough games.
Speaker 3 (41:28):
And the tough games though, Mark, that's their biggest thing
between Probably.
Speaker 1 (41:35):
He's still go to They're still gonna win the games. Dan,
He's got to do some one of those.
Speaker 4 (41:40):
Three games, because if you lose to Penn State and
you go one and two against Michigan at home, USC
at home, and iowad home, just be one of those
three teams you go nine and three.
Speaker 1 (41:53):
I really do think that let's circle into Friday. I
know we're very passionate both of the two games mentioned,
so let's hit on them quick. Look. I love Georgia
Tech big in this game. I'm a Haines King believer.
I think they're very well positioned to win this game
pretty easily. At Colorado. I think if Colorado makes any noise,
(42:13):
it's gonna be later in the season. Auburn Baylor has
potential to be drunk off the rails. I mean, look,
it's a huge freeze offense. They've got two really good
receivers at Auburn, am I sole on it's Jackson Arnolds
their starter, right, Yeah, yeah, yeah.
Speaker 4 (42:30):
It is like they're playing three quarterbacks. They're planning on
three guys getting snaps, and they're also not sure. They're
not sure who's calling plays on either side of the ball,
and they might switch on offense depending on the down.
Speaker 1 (42:47):
Well, that sounds pretty chaotic like Auburn football team, so
that fits the bill. I think Baylor. Baylor's got potential
to be really good this year. I know I've talked
about them, so I like Georgia Tech four and a half.
Actually like to text one of that game by double digits.
I'm really in on them there. And I think Baylor
money line. I think that's a pot play as well.
Speaker 4 (43:09):
That's about my bet of the week. My favorite bet
of the weekend Baylor plus two and a half. I
like the money line as well, but I'll take the
two and a half. Why not. I think Baylor's wighing
this game out right. I said before the year my
favorite future for the college football or NFL season this
year is Auburn under seven and a half at plus
(43:30):
one forty is what I got that number at. Tell
me why that is plus one forty. It makes no
sense to me. I'm not going to convince you out
of that.
Speaker 1 (43:42):
I love the That's the way I can describe my
thoughts that since we're running little on time, let's get
into Saturday real quick beef outside of the big games,
what game has your attention on Saturday?
Speaker 2 (43:54):
I like Indiana and our boy coach SIGs minus twenty
three and a half. You look at last year, they're
non conference opponents outscored them one sixty to twenty four.
Speaker 3 (44:04):
Now that does include a seventy seven to three.
Speaker 2 (44:06):
Win over our Western Illinois Leathernecks, but still they had
seven wins last year by twenty four or more points.
We saw, especially against these inferior opponents, he wasn't afraid
to keep his foot on the gas and blow some
games open. So twenty three and a half against an
old Dominion team that was picked to finish.
Speaker 3 (44:21):
In the middle of the pack in the Sunbelt. I
like that one.
Speaker 2 (44:24):
And the another one that caught my eye utsa plus
twenty four and a half. I've listened to a couple
pods that have them as one of the dark horses
to be that to do that G five spot. They're
plus twenty four and a half against A and M.
And we saw last year. I think it took A
and M a little bit to get rolling. I think
the biggest thing with A and M last year weren't
very consistent.
Speaker 3 (44:43):
Twenty four and a half.
Speaker 2 (44:44):
That's a lot of points to cover. I mean the
Southern Miss plus thirteen and a half and Toledo plus
nine and a half. We've talked about both of those matchups,
I think, but Southern Miss against Missippi State, and that
game's at Southern Miss in Toledo plus nine and a
half Kentucky.
Speaker 3 (44:58):
I think both of those are live dogs.
Speaker 2 (44:59):
If you want to throw out your cup of coffee
on the money line parlay with those two, I.
Speaker 3 (45:03):
Think that could be the option.
Speaker 1 (45:05):
I'm betting Southern Southern Mess out right at plus three
sixty in the money line, don't. I don't see a
world where Mississippi State is a thirteen and a half
point favorite or something. Miss alright, and I think we're
grading Southern Miss a little bit based off of the
last few years where they've been awful. They import Charles
Huff and I guess the third of the Marshall roster,
including the quarterback. I just think there's gonna be so
(45:27):
much more structure in that team. And if I don't think,
I guess Mississppi States the worst power for team. We
can have that debate another time, but I think they're
in the conversation. Yeah, Stanford's in there, but Mississippi State
isn't far behind in that conversation. Another one I'd point out,
just because I don't like the home team in this game,
(45:49):
FAU plus fourteen and a half. They're gonna score. Zach Kittley,
one of the youngest head coaches now in college football,
took over at FAU. He's been the stud oct a
few different places over the past few years. Brought Caiden
Dell camp with him from Western Kentucky. That's their quarterback.
So you have an experienced quarterback, some experience pass catchers.
(46:11):
They're not gonna play a lot of defense, so that
that's a downfall of an air raid team. But Florida
Atlantic should be fun, maybe like a first half line
against Maryland, who I believe is going to try out
a freshman quarterback. I'm not a huge fan of Locksley
in general, and I don't think Maryland is is that good,
so I think FAU might. That's that we pop up
(46:33):
at halftime of Texas Ohio State and if Faus closer leading,
I'll your surprise.
Speaker 4 (46:38):
How is Mike Loxley still a head coach in the
Power for It's unbelievable. I can't believe that's That's really one.
I'm just gonna throw out there. I'm not sure if
I'm gonna bet at this. This was on my list
to ask you guys if I should Michigan State minus
twenty and a half. I hate big numbers. I don't
like betting these games. Western Michigan was six and seven
(47:00):
last year in the MAC lost like their whole team
in Michigan State, a team that they only played one
like Cupcake last year in Prairie View, they did win
forty to nothing. Kind of I'm not really like all
the way there on Michigan State, but I will say
I feel like they'd be an interesting post type sleeper
this year. They do have like an interesting if they
popped and went eight and four, nine and three this year,
(47:22):
I would not be shocked. Aighton Childs at one time
was kind of a hot shot prospect, and he wasn't
terrible last year. He was just he was young. He
made some mistakes, he turned the ball over. I think
there is still something there with Childs. I'm kind of
interested in that game. I might end up maybe first
half or maybe Michigan State. When is twenty and a
half there?
Speaker 1 (47:41):
Real quick? Any other games I know TC you North
Carolina's Monday? I think are we all on TCU? Yes?
I might go.
Speaker 9 (47:49):
I might go with Geordana. Yeah, let's have some fun.
What's the total in that game? All fifty six? The
total might be played? Geo Lopez was Look, it.
Speaker 1 (48:01):
Was South Alabama, but they were one of the better
G five teams last year. Maybe I'll lean over, but
I think TC wins that game. Any other plays on
Saturday that have our attention before we wrap things up?
Speaker 4 (48:13):
Syracuse give me the give me the orange plus fourteen
and a half out there? I think, give me give
me that shade orange over the Tennessee shade orange. There's
just something that I feel like Fran Brown walks out
of this weekend is one of the stories of the weekend.
I don't know why I feel like that. Steve Angelly,
I'm biased, kind of wish he was the guy starting
(48:33):
against Miami for notre name of this weekend, but I
think Syracuse. I think they keep this game close. I
think this is the one where you look up at
halftime and it's like WHOA, Syracuse tied with Tennessee. I
could see it.
Speaker 1 (48:45):
There's potential for a few of this. I'll give you
one real quick Utah. It's a late night game. I'm tempt.
A lot of people are buying in on Utah and
I'm sold on UCLA. Nico's gotta win a few games
of decent note for me to care about him At
U C l A.
Speaker 2 (49:03):
I'll go with Beaver fever minus one and a half
at home against Cal. You're you're not gonna ride with
Malik Murphy on Saturday night, Mark, I might will Cox
as an underdog is like a.
Speaker 3 (49:15):
Thing a disaster. This year him and Ron Rivera are
gonna be at each other's neck. I think by the
end of this year.
Speaker 1 (49:21):
The problem is they lost so much. The lost Mendoza,
they lost Jaye, not like can they can you overcome that?
In Week one?
Speaker 3 (49:29):
I like Milke Murphy in the spot.
Speaker 4 (49:34):
I love Malik Murphy, loved the Beaver's I'm sure I'll
be on him a ton this year. I'm gonna stay
away from this one one last one, because I don't
know if I'm gonna end up adding it Northwestern at
two lane, Do either you have any read there by
jew quarterback now ju lane with Jake rhets laugh starting there.
I think I'm tempted by Northwestern. This was like a
(49:57):
late transfer for Ret Slaugh. He just ca in like
two months ago, maybe like a month and a half ago.
I don't know if he's like fully, you know, stopped
and ready to go there requested on the six and
a half points.
Speaker 1 (50:10):
I'm also playing my system and just betting Penn State
against an inferior opponent. It's fair because Nevada is bad
and Ben James knows the spread even when the backups
are in so forty four doesn't surprise me. Georgia also,
I know there. I think the number of things stuck
he put it out there that are own thirteen when
Kirby's thirty nine or more favorite, but Marshall lost like
(50:31):
their entire team. That actually might be a first half
play for me on UGA, just because Marshall is going
to be that bad. So I think we have I
think we've covered everything from from week one, from the
big games, even the big the big spreads. That's what
we do here as as the three resident Sikkos here
at the Gambler. We'll be doing this every week from
(50:54):
here on out, giving you our best bets and our
takes on the playoff, the Heisman, and much more so.
For Ryan and Mark Henry Junior. I am Joe Chanzy.
Thank you all for listening. We'll check you back next week.
Best of luck on your bets this week and Week
one of college football spreads, totals and all the prop
that's in the tweens. It's the Gambler.
Number one on your car radio preset hand the new
and improved Diehard Radio app w d W D two
seven Bring Date Philadelphia. I is Fox Sports Radio the Gambling.
(00:28):
Hello everyone, and welcome on in too. Week one college
football betting preview with the Sickos. We're back for another year, myself,
Joe Tanzy, Ryan Coyle, Mark Henry Jr. We're all ready
to go boys right and it's it's so nice to
have college football back. A Schmorgas sport Thursday, Friday, Saturday, Sunday, Monday,
(00:50):
even this week. Uh, I'm looking forward to this so much?
How much are you guys looking forward to Week one
of college football season?
Speaker 2 (01:02):
My first college football season in my new little bachelor
pad with my friends. So three TVs, A seventy five
insure it's going to be a Saturday. We already have
the plan for takeout, get a couple of thirty RECs
and having some friends over, so it should be a
fun day. Wall to wall Saturday, but some good appetizers Thursday,
a couple of really good ones on Friday and Sunday
(01:23):
two good ones and Monday and interesting one as well.
Speaker 3 (01:25):
So fun fun five days stretch ahead.
Speaker 4 (01:27):
Here got the fantasy draft on Friday with all that stuff.
On Saturday, you have wall to wall.
Speaker 1 (01:35):
How much more can you ask for?
Speaker 5 (01:37):
You have one verse three, you have lsu cleansing, and
then I gotta wait all weekend until Sunday night eventually
have my heart ripped out in August for.
Speaker 1 (01:47):
Notre Dame season.
Speaker 4 (01:50):
And then you're not not even mentioning Monday night with
TCU in North Carolina where you get to see Belichick.
There's a storyline for each day early Thursday, Friday, Saturday, Sunday,
Monday that you can find something to grab onto.
Speaker 1 (02:05):
And I really think Friday is gonna be the underrated
day to day. That kind of pops out at everybody, like, oh,
these games are actually gonna be decent. But let's let's
cut the crab. Let's start with the big one, Texas
versus Ohio State. This should be number one versus number two.
Do not let the AP voters tell you this isn't
one versus two. With all due respect to Penn State,
they'll be number two, but there'll be number two for
(02:28):
long enough. We want one versus two. It's one versus
three if you go by the coaches pull, which I
don't think anybody does. Ever, It's one versus two either way,
it's Texas versus Ohio State. It is a massive, massive
game to start the season. The reign of Arch Manning
officially begins at Texas with no Queen yours. Ohio State
now the reigning national champion with I would say the
(02:52):
two best players in the country at their positions in
Jeremiah Smith and camp Down. So maybe the two best
players individually in the entire country, with how talented both
of them are. Games in Columbus, there are still all
sorts of fan for already around this boys. Ohio State's
a one and a half point favorite. The over under
sits at forty seven and a half. Now that we've
(03:13):
done his offseason breakdowns, it's time to get into the
nitty gritty. Who's winning this game? I'm going hook him.
Speaker 2 (03:21):
I think this is kind of Arches, you know, welcome,
Welcome to the big League's type of moment, and he
goes out there and puts on a bit of a show.
I do think it's going to be a little bit
of a lower scoring game with these two younger and
inexperienced quarterbacks. But I just like a little bit more
of what Texas has returning and the continuity on the
coaching staff as well, Like what's Brian Hartline gonna look
(03:41):
like at OC for Ohio State? Matt Patricia the defensive coordinator,
his last few jobs in the NFL have been a disaster,
what is he going to look like at the DC
spot there? So I think one of the big things
with Texas, and I heard this more and more throughout
the week starts back for year five. Offensive coordinator, back
for year five, DC, back for your five, special teams coordinator,
back for your five, A lot more at continuity on
(04:03):
that coaching staff. Arch you know, had a couple of
coffee with a couple of games last year, but this
is year three, learning in the system now, so I'm
just a little bit more experience in continuity on that side.
That's a big spot for Julian saying in his first
real taste of college football to go out there. So
I'm gonna take Texas to win, but it's a game.
I'm not gonna be surprised either way. The only thing
(04:24):
I'll be surprised at is either side blows us out.
I think this is a real close one down in
the fourth.
Speaker 4 (04:28):
Quarter, I agree, this isn't one that I'm all that
confident in. You know, you can break it down from
any angle you want, no matter where I come out,
I'm like, how could you be that confident in either
side to lose? Really, le's about picking either side to win.
(04:49):
Picking one of these sides means you're picking the other
to lose. It means arch Manning's starting one one. It
means Ohio State coming off of, you know, one of
the more impressive championship runs of all time, and new
playoff format starts zing one in the next year. I
will just say I think in general, I've been surprised
at I don't know if it's Ohigo State skepticism or
(05:10):
just a lack of I know it's a new world
and things change year to year, and things are going
to change very much year to year at the top
of the sport, even but I've been surprised at the
way that people are not hyping up the defending champion
that returns I think two of the best players.
Speaker 1 (05:28):
But you're good, are we good? Yeah? You're good? Mark, Yeah, Yeah.
Speaker 4 (05:36):
I just I've been surprised because I, like you mentioned,
I think Jeremiah Smith and Caleb down to the two
best players in the country, and I understand that they
lost guys. Are we saying Will Howard was this special
quarterback that they can't replace, that Chip Kelly was a
special play caller they can't replace. He was only there
for one year. And the DC has kind of bounced
(05:58):
around year after year after year. It feels like at
Ohio State, I just think that at this point this
team replenishes. If it was in Austin, I'd probably be
picking Texas, But whether it being in Columbus, I'm siding
with Ohio State. Not very complimently, though.
Speaker 1 (06:14):
I think it's gonna be a very close game. The
one X factor you're out here is how do you
defend Jeremiah Smith? Like, what what is Texas going to
do to contain him? Do you let him go over
the top and make a few big plays? Do you
challenge the Carnel Tate and some of the other targets
you know, I have the State's been the wide receiver
(06:36):
factory over the last few years, and and Tate kind
of slips into this Mecca Egbuca role, who I think
that was probably the most important guy they lose Meccagbuka
was just so good and we'll see why in the NFL.
Like he's a very talented pass catcher. I think that's
going to be a huge loss. The one addition they
(06:57):
make that really intrigues me is Max Claire the tight
end from too. Obviously, we don't pay attention to Purdue
football unless they're playing number two at home in West
Lafayette and like mid October, because that's the thing. But
I think that's a very nice addition at tight end
and something that will will help Julian say in. But
there's more consistency right over on Texas's side of the
(07:19):
ball from what they brought back last year. Yes, the
quarterback is different, but like you mentioned, if the coordinators
are the same, the head coaches the same, and arch Manning,
it seems like he's coming in with a lot of confidence, right.
So it's going to be very fascinating to see how
this game plays out. I do think it's going to
be a close game. I just don't know which way
(07:40):
to which way to go. I really do think it's
gonna be one of those those battles. And if it's
if a team does win this by double digits, I'd
be very surprised. The other thing I'll also say is
being zero and one in September in stage of college football,
means absolutely nothing. It really doesn't mean a thing. Being
(08:01):
going to being Owen three one to three that matters
because then you're on the verge of not making the playoff.
But in a twelve team playoff situation, here look, one
of these teams is gonna lose. Both of these teams
are probably gonna be in the playoff. This isn't like
the BCS era where it's like, well you lost, well,
good luck trying to make it back into the playoff
(08:22):
conversation the rest of the season. So I think it's
gonna be very close. I think I'm kind of leaning Texas.
I don't know if I have an official play on
this game, but if I did, I think i'd bet
I'd go to Texas. And but it's gonna be so,
so super close, and I hope it's a great spectacle
(08:45):
for college football. And I hope we get a new
nickname for Jeremiah Smith from Gus Johnson because it's been
a few years now since Maserati.
Speaker 3 (08:52):
Marvh Jeremiah was a bullfrog and gotta go with that one.
Speaker 1 (08:57):
There's there's gonna be something that we're just like that
we jump out and we're like, oh my god, why
why It's gonna be so insufferable all season? Because Ohio
State is gonna be big, new quite a lot, I assume,
But yeah, I think it's gonna be very, very very close.
Is there anything I guess in this game? Maybe from
a first half perspective, because this is the game everybody's
(09:19):
gonna be watching the first half over under twenty three
and a half. If this is a game where the
new coordinators on Ohio State side, new guys on each
side Arch and say and feeling themselves out, is this
maybe a first half angle? Potentially, given the circumstances with
both teams and it being the biggest game on the.
Speaker 2 (09:41):
Schedule this week, I do think you could see both
sides kind of start out slow, maybe even like a
first quarter what's first quarter under coming in like ten
and a half. But you also kind of played the
dangerous game where Arch has shown that he's very versatile
and very explosive with his legs. He can bust off
a fifty yard run Jeremiah Smith. All it takes as
one as well. So it's like, do you really want
(10:02):
to tap into potentially in under when you have so
much talent on both sides. It just might take a
little bit for these two teams to get going, might
take a few drives for them to get cooking. But
it's not a side that I feel confident in because
it's you have so much talent that could take the
ball to the house on any given snap.
Speaker 3 (10:22):
So I'm not really looking at it from that angle, to.
Speaker 2 (10:25):
Be honest, might not even bet this game it just
because it's such a pure coin flip and so much
speculation and projection. More So, I sit back, watch and
let's look at what we might have for the rest
of the season type of game for me.
Speaker 1 (10:39):
So I'm going to open that up to a wider
Week one conversation. There are so many unknowns, and even
more unknowns than we have had in the past because
there's so many changing parts. I mean, you look at
the group of five level, there are certain teams that
literally uprooted from one spot and now on the other.
So then Miss for example, they took half of Marshall's team.
(11:00):
It feels like and their head coach, how do you
approach Week one, do you appre approach it with more
trepidation than you had in the past because of all
the changes, Like how how does the week one approach
or what does the week one approach look like now
in twenty twenty five with the portal all of all
(11:21):
these movements elsewhere, and it feels like some of these
teams are completely different teams, you know, give it like
a Syracuse for an example in Tennessee, even without Nico.
How do you approach week one from a betting perspective.
Speaker 4 (11:40):
Yeah, I'm scared of the big numbers. I can't lie.
I stay away from the big numbers, and I kind
of focus on these closer spreads, and I'm kind of
preaching I'm not going to be doing the crazy ten
to fifteen play cards this year. I'm gonna try to
keep you know, six to eight plays on a Saturday.
It's a little different this weekend with spread out, but
(12:02):
I'm kind of focused on the I guess I have
one double digit spread, but every out of my seven
bets that I'm definitely going to make, five of them
are four point spreads are lower, So I guess early
in the year I'm taking a look at not pick
them games, but games that are a little bit closer,
(12:23):
and you're, you know, making your pick based on what
you've read and what you believe about these teams coming
into the year.
Speaker 2 (12:29):
But yeah, I.
Speaker 4 (12:32):
It's interesting because I have a couple written down that
we'll get to later after we do the big games,
or I'm going to pitch it to you guys and
be like, convince me why I should or shouldn't bet
this basically, And that's where we're at right now. It
is obviously the wild wild West this year, and in
general I think going forward early on in the college football.
Speaker 2 (12:52):
Season, Yeah, I'm the same way where it's you can
pride yourself on the off season research and read up
on as much and do as much podcast listening.
Speaker 3 (13:03):
But there's so many moving.
Speaker 2 (13:04):
Parts, even more than the NFL these days, and especially
in key positions like quarterback, Like how many quarterbacks in
the NFL this year weren't the starter last year?
Speaker 3 (13:14):
Like eight or so?
Speaker 2 (13:15):
In major spots like you look at this year, there
are so many major changes and a lot of these
guys like Arts like saying they were in the program
last year, but it's really going to be our first
time seeing them play extended ball. Like guys outside of
Drew Aller or Kate club Nick or Garrett nus Meyer,
there's a lot of guys that are being flushed into
new spots.
Speaker 3 (13:33):
So I really think you kind of got to take
your time.
Speaker 2 (13:36):
Week one, Week two, you might get a big matchup,
but really it starts to get into two, week three,
week four where I feel like you can start to
feel comfortable. Sure, people are gonna want to have some action,
maybe plays put some small clips, but I definitely say
wait to see these teams actually out there and see
how all these new pieces, whether it's recruits are in
the portal, are really looking before you're firing off some
of your bigger bets of the season.
Speaker 1 (13:57):
So let's talk about too, the guy guys that are
still in their spot at quarterback, and that's Garrett Nice
nuss Meyer and Kate club Nick. There's potential for Clemson
LSU to be better than Texas Ohio State from an
entertainment perspective. I know there's a few people here that
are are huge on LSU. If my memory is correct,
(14:19):
though Brian Kelly has not won a Week one game
at LSU. Now, look, there's been some weird circumstances, So
I guess, I guess you have to add maybe a
caveat or two into that stat But the stats are
still the stats. He has not won a Week one
game since arriving at LSU. They go to the other
death Valley. We can have a discussion too about who's
(14:40):
the real death Valley, and I think that's a bat bruge.
But that's besides the point. Clemson's a three and a
half point favorite at home at night over under his
fifty seven and a half. Look, I've kind of looked
at all the angles at this and I know we
talked last week in one of our previews about Kate
club Nick and Clemson getting all the hype. I know, Mark,
(15:02):
you were critical of that. I just I look at
the game objectively. I think Clemson's the side. I just
my gut is telling me, and I wish I had
like more convincing evidence other than my gut, But Clemson
at home, Brian Kelly stumbled out of the gate three times.
(15:22):
Now at LSU, I'm going Clemson, And I know that's
a contrarian opinion to the other guys in the screen.
Speaker 2 (15:30):
Right now, I think Clemson. Yeah, I'm on Clemson as well.
This is probably more of a stay away for me
though than the Ohio State Texas game. Like, if you
made me make a bet between the two of them,
I probably take Texas over Ohio State rather than taking
Clemson with the four against LSU.
Speaker 3 (15:47):
It's just one of those things where it's like Brian
Kelly hasn't.
Speaker 2 (15:50):
Done it yet, why would I trust him now in
this spot, which is maybe the toughest test that he's
had out of these Week one games. Potentially so and Elsie,
I have LSU going to the National championship game. I've
been losing in the National Championship game. I just think
it's it's a tough spot out of the gate, and
I haven't seen a Brian Kelly LSU team do it,
And it's a spot where I think they could come
out a little bit tight too. Would I be surprised
(16:12):
if they go there and win it all? No, But
that's kind of why I don't have a particular feel.
But I'm just not confident enough to put a play
out there, put a money on a play for a
Brian Kelly led team that I haven't seen do it
in this spot yet.
Speaker 4 (16:25):
LSU is winning this game out right, Clemson's one of
the bigger frauds ever been perpetrated on the public. The
way people are talking about this team like they're a
title contender. They're the same team that got smoked by
South Carolina, had South Carolina doing TikTok dances all over
their field on Week fourteen. They have the same Oh
I keep hearing about these two receivers they were there
(16:45):
against South Carolina. Keep hearing about all these defensive linemen
they were there against South Carolina. Keep hearing about Kate Klubbick.
He was there against South Carolina. Keep hearing about the
running backs they were there against South Carolina. It's the
same team. I don't know how this ten and three
team turned into some war old beating national title contender
this year. I really don't get it. It's one of
the bigg It's one of the most perplexing things I've
(17:07):
ever seen in preseason college football, especially in this era
where things are changing so much. Let's go with the
team that change the least. I don't know. I don't
get it at all, And you could throw the same
things at me with LSU. This is a bet against
Clemson more than a bet on LSU. Maybe I'm maybe
I'm off there. I think that it's a joke the
(17:28):
way Clemson's being talked about, and I think there's a
good chance LSU wins this game by double digits. I
think nuss Meyer's the better quarterback in this game. And actually,
if we're just talking about this game is bigger for
It's way bigger for LSU. Clemson goes and plays an
acc schedule the rest of the year, whereas LSU gets
to have you know, Alabama and Georgia and everything that's
(17:51):
on Texas A and M everything that's on their schedule.
I think it's a way bigger, way, way, way bigger
game for LSU. And Brian kelly Is also said how
they've put way more of an emphasis on this Week
one than they have in years past, to the point
where he's even wondered aloud if it's like detrimental. He's like,
we might be putting too much of an emphasis on
(18:12):
this Week one, and maybe we were doing the right
thing in the past and it just hadn't didn't pan out.
But they are going full guns plays for this game one.
This is my favorite bet of my line. Yeah, yeah,
it's my favorite bet. Of Saturday, not of the weekend.
But my favorite bet.
Speaker 1 (18:30):
Actually, I'd actually counter your your point there. I think
it might be more important for Clemson, and the reason why.
The reason why I say that is because if you
look at where they are in the a SEC, Yes,
they're going to make the playoff if they handle business
like everyone expects they're going to. But if you look
at the rest of their schedule, there's no game on
(18:54):
this schedule right now at least that you can pinpoint
and say, Okay, we're gonna develop an opinion on Clemson
on outside of their two games against SEC opponents. I'm
not huge on South Carolina. I think that the number
next to them is a little too high and will
be proven throughout the year. Still a rivalry game, but
you have LSU at the start, South Carolina at the finish,
(19:18):
and there really isn't much in between. We really don't know.
I mean, we have mixed opinions on who's going to
be the second or third best teams in the ACC.
But they don't play Miami. They play Louisville on the
road on a Friday night in November. So maybe that's
the point where we pay attention to them. But they
could win a lot of games by fifteen to twenty
(19:39):
points more from the second LSU leaves Clemson South Carolina
to the time that they play the Game Cocks. It
really could be that. So I think from a schedule
perspective and from a national conversation perspective, Clemson's got a
little more meaning on this one because LSU is going
(19:59):
to play how many ranked teams five to six in
SEC play and we'll have plenty of other I think.
I think that's where you could argue Clemson it means
more just because everyone expects them to win the nine
or ten games. But this is one where people will
develop a national opinion on Clemson, good or bad.
Speaker 4 (20:20):
National opinions already that they're gonna go win the championship,
or listen to any podcast that's talking about it, and
they're picking them to win the championship. So I think,
and also I guess my other question is in a
twelve team playoff, ara does that even matter anymore? Like
the earning the creditor the public? Like, I think at
this point all the matters is just getting there. I
like we saw with Ohio State. So I do think
(20:43):
if you.
Speaker 6 (20:44):
If ellas you loses this game, it decreases those chances
by a lot more than clemson chances decrease of going
to the playoff.
Speaker 1 (20:55):
I think.
Speaker 2 (20:58):
I think it says as of now it's forty four percent,
like ESPNFBI had it down to twenty one percent if
they lose this game.
Speaker 4 (21:04):
Yeah, it seems fair.
Speaker 1 (21:07):
It's it'll be interesting to see how the I love
how seeing the narratives come off of Week one because
there are a lot of unknowns about these teams. Like
like you said, Mark, Clemson is front and center in
the spotlight, whether you like it or not. They're they're there.
We'll find out if they belong there pretty quickly. And
if Kate Klubnick is actually going to be in that
(21:28):
conversation of the top fives to ten quarterbacks, there's a
chance he could be an average quarterback still and Clemson
could just not not be in that upper tier where
the Ohio States and the Penn States and the Texas are.
It'd be fascinating to see how the narrative goes a team. Also,
(21:48):
who whose narrative? I think it's just perennially against them
under Mario Cristobal is Miami. I'll sit here, right now,
I can tell you what's gonna happen with myami. They're
gonna win eight nine game, but when it comes down
to games that matter, it's not gonna happen. They're gonna
blow it. Carson beck the jury. I don't know how
(22:13):
it's still out on Carson Becky where he's gonna go
to Miami and be completely fixed. He showed a lot
of flaws last year at Georgia. I don't see a
world actually where Notre Dame loses this game. Mark Henry,
you're the resident, You're the resident Irish fan. What's the
I guess what's the feeling on this game from from
(22:35):
your perspective? They're two and a half points favorite going
into Miami on Sunday night.
Speaker 4 (22:39):
I feel surprisingly good. I think we're all a little
bit lower on Miami and consensus, and I know Tansey
and I have just we've been crystal Ball haters for
longer than it's been cool to be. I would say
so christa fraud, as T Bob calls him from the Unmissary,
(23:00):
because anytime I can fade him in a big game,
I'll take that opportunity. Dating back to or his if
someone can look it up. His career coaching record is
shockingly not good, like you would think given the amount
of years he's coached at Oregon in Miami that it
would be, you know, just decent based on I don't
like geography basically, but it is not impressive that just.
Speaker 1 (23:25):
Happened in front of me.
Speaker 2 (23:27):
FIU.
Speaker 3 (23:29):
Yeah yeah, I think it was five and fifty five
something around there.
Speaker 1 (23:34):
He was twenty seven and forty seven in FIU, thirty
five and thirteen at Oregon and two and sixteen at Miami.
Speaker 4 (23:43):
Sixteen is not I think that's worse than most people
would guess. If you think so too, what's his record
at Miami. I don't think people would guess whatever that
win percentage is.
Speaker 3 (23:52):
I don't think seven wins till till last season.
Speaker 2 (23:56):
Yeah. Seven.
Speaker 1 (23:57):
I think it had seven wins the second year, but
it was just seven wins.
Speaker 4 (24:00):
Yeah.
Speaker 1 (24:01):
Yeah.
Speaker 4 (24:02):
I am very happy that this game, Like I am
much more scared of A and M coming to South
Bend in Week three than I am of this game
going to Miami, and I kind of love that we're
getting Week one against Carson Beck with whatever this surgically
repair his shoulder is going to look like I think
(24:23):
that the defense is going to against Carson Beck and
against Miami. Miami lost all the pass catchers from last year.
They lost Damien Martinez, who ran for I don't know,
fifteen hundred yards. You obviously lose the Heisman and cam
Wood and you're replacing all of those guys, and you're
replacing a ton on the offensive line. I know that
they spend a ton of money. The offensive line is
going to be really good, but I don't think it's
(24:45):
gonna matter. I think Carson Beck is going to really
really struggle in this game. I'm not as much of
a Beck hater as I think Beef is, but I
love getting the first crack at him. I much rather
play Miami week one than play them in two three months,
when Beck has played a bunch and is back in
the swing of things. Now you can throw it back
(25:06):
at me and say, we have no idea what CJ.
Carr is, and I feel like there's been a bit
of a a bit of a maybe it's just barstool,
but Brandon Walker and a couple other big college football
guys out there not picking Notre Dame to go to
the playoff this year, and they're citing CJ. Carr, And
(25:26):
it's just funny because they're the same people all year
last year who said Notre Dame shouldn't be taken seriously
because they can't throw the ball. They're Riley Leonard's running back.
They can't throw the ball. But now they have a
new quarterback and we're just assuming he's worse than Riley
le I he's probably not, as he's not gonna be
the runner Riley Leonard was, but they probably will have
a better passing offense if I had to guess. So
(25:50):
I'm optimistic about Carr. He's been a guy I've heard
about for a long time, and I do think if
things go wrong, I think they'll go to winsheet pretty quickly.
And Minshi's more of a dual threat guy, more of
a run and a round guy. And I think if
Notre Dame, like you said, you said, you can't see
a scenario Notre Dame loses. Now that scenario is the quarterback.
(26:12):
Can't you play the guitar? But I would say I
don't see a scenario Notre Dame gets blown out. So
if CJ. Carr really struggle with these first two or
three quarters, I still think Notre Dame will be within
seven to ten points. You throw Kenny Minchi out there,
maybe you just do kind of an option offense a
little bit and you kind of hope to save it
that way. But I feel pretty good. I'm pretty confident
(26:35):
in this one.
Speaker 1 (26:36):
At some point, you have to understand, these guys have
told us who they are, Like, there's enough of a
sample size on a handful of these guys, and Carson
Beck is the primary example. Am Using here is we
have enough of a sample size on him from another
program at Georgia. He's going to a program that is
(26:56):
further down the totem pole in college football in Miami.
I just I'm not buying what everybody else is selling
on Carson Beck. I need to be proven wrong before
we get to that point where I can say, yeah,
Carson Beck is going to help Miami get to the
playoffs and maybe win the ACC. But oh, by the way,
I just want to point this out and keep this
(27:18):
in your head for future. Notice Miami closes the season
at Virginia Tech and at Pittsburgh Mero Crystobal loses at
least one of those games, maybe both, because that is
just what his track record is again, a lot of beef.
These coaches tell us. I have already told us who
they are as coaches, how they deal with situations. Carson
Beck quarterback, who we know what he deals with these
(27:39):
situations beef. I think you'd agree with me on Carson Beck.
Speaker 2 (27:43):
Yeah, I think this Miami team is going to be
closer to missing a bowl game than to going to
the playoffs.
Speaker 3 (27:49):
That's one of my it to me, that's one of
my big takes on the season.
Speaker 2 (27:52):
I think when you look at Beck as well, like
he's not throwing to Lad mcconki and Brock Bauers, Like
Brock Bowers is arguably already the best tight end in
the NFL. Lad McConkie had a damn good first year
where we're not really much was expected, And those are
two guys that Brower is probably favorite for first Seamo
protite on this year. Ladd McConkie I think will be
one of the best slot receivers in the entire league.
(28:14):
And when Carson Beck had his best year is when
he was thrown to those guys with Hall of Fame
level defensive talent behind him as well.
Speaker 3 (28:21):
So it's not the same situation.
Speaker 2 (28:23):
I was much higher on Miami going into last year
with cam Ward, and I thought cam Ward proved me
right for most of the season. They had a couple
games down the stretch there where they struggled, but it
wasn't the offensive fault. And we saw cam Ward go
from Lazoo to the number one overall pick, and that
was a big jump.
Speaker 3 (28:39):
Now I'm the.
Speaker 2 (28:40):
Complete opposite direction on this Miami team. I think I
actually had them going six and six, so just cracking
a bowl game. But some people have them as acc champs,
some people have them as a sure fired playoff team.
I think they're going to be a lot closer to
missing the playoff or excuse me, missing a bowl game
than even going to the playoff.
Speaker 3 (28:58):
And that starts Week one here. Love no name in
this spot, and I think.
Speaker 2 (29:01):
It's a great opportunity for Marcus Freeman to basically show like,
you know, as long as I'm here, we're going to
be in the mix every single year. Great opportunity here
against the number ten team in the country, go out,
make a statement, and I think you get a double
digit win on the road. Here.
Speaker 1 (29:14):
Mark's scary, No, no, this is we all hate Miami.
Speaker 4 (29:22):
We all me and you hate Christmas all Beef hate
Carson beck uh beef once in on the Cavender Twins
and it was with the Ice in the Mountain. But
you mentioned and this is not the right the right
spot to bring this up. But I feel like I've
said this in the chat and I don't think I've
ever said about any of our there's never really.
Speaker 1 (29:40):
A good spot to bring up pitt football. And they're
just there.
Speaker 4 (29:43):
No, I a lot. It's funny. I mean, Tansey and
Beef know this. I'm in Indiana and I was training
someone and I told him I was from Philadelphia and
they're like, oh, I want to visit so bad and
go to Pittsburgh.
Speaker 7 (29:55):
I'm like, not, folksurgh not, I get it. Same state, YadA, YadA, YadA,
but not close. But anyway, pitt greater than Georgia Tech.
Georgia Tech has all the hype. Eli Holstein. If I
was making a bet on kind of the dark horse
ACC team, listen to the first nine games of Pitt's schedule.
(30:17):
This is this random tangent here. The first nine games
of Pitts.
Speaker 4 (30:20):
Schedule Ducaine at home, Central Michigan at West Virginia. I
think West Virginia stinks. Louisville at home. I think it's
a really tough game, but at least you get it
at home. In Louisville's traveling a long way there. Boston
College at home. I think Boston College stinks. Florida State
at home. I think Florida State stanks at Syracuse Syracuse. Oh,
you're right, it is again. I saw PC and yeah, yeah,
(30:43):
Roague game at Florida State at Syracuse. Not a very
tough game. NC State at home, not a very tough
game at Stanford. We just watched Stanford. They closed the
year with three really tough games. Notre Dame at home,
at Georgia Tech, Miami at home. As we just said,
Miami's losing one of those games. We already know that,
but at least you get Miami and Notre Dame of home.
(31:04):
I think Pitt's like an eight ish, maybe maybe even
nine wins if I was if I was looking for
the dark horse. There's been a lot of buzz for
Georgia Tech and in Differently, I wouldn't say Miami is
a dark horse, but like be said, there's buzz there.
Brandon Walker picked him to go to the playoffs. I
was looking for that dark horse ACC team, and I
don't know if Louisville even counts as that anymore. I
would look at Pit.
Speaker 2 (31:24):
That's I feel like we have so many takes in
this one. Like I think Miami is gonna suck. I
think Georgia Tech has a chance to be really good.
I know, Mark, you're really high in Louisville. You're talking
about Pitt.
Speaker 3 (31:35):
I think we have a lot of deep rooted opinions
here in the ACC, which is fascinating because it's probably
the least like.
Speaker 1 (31:42):
The least fascinating of the four conferences.
Speaker 4 (31:44):
Yeah, I know's in on Duke. I'm out on Duke
because of Elik Murphy. Shout out my guy, Malik Murphy.
I'll ride for him. Uh, We're all out on Carolina.
Speaker 1 (31:53):
I think.
Speaker 4 (31:55):
I'm out on Clemson. I've got that take.
Speaker 1 (31:57):
Let's let's bring another team into the because this was
a guy that I was very in on at his
previous stop, but now all he's done is run his mouth.
I mean, I don't know if he's gonna thrive in Tallahassee.
Thomas Castillanos and the Florida State seminoles. I guess that's
the top second tier game. Bama is going into Tallahassee
(32:21):
this weekend. Let's talk about it before we get into
the cards. I think it's only fair. It's a fourteen
point spread and favorite Bama. I think that's fair. Does
Florida State show us anything in this game to maybe
like throw them into the mix? I just I love Pastianos,
(32:42):
a unheralded quarterback at Boston College. Like he seems like
a guy that thrives in like the underdog role and
somebody who is just he's just a gritty, dual threat
quarterback and he's a perfect college quarterback taking the step
to Florida State. I don't I don't know if I
love him as much. Uh, this is all just a
(33:06):
way for me to say I think I'm gonna take
Bama by two touchdowns. And oh, by the way, Ryan
Williams still exists.
Speaker 4 (33:12):
Yeah, we talked a little about.
Speaker 1 (33:15):
We talked about Jeremiah Smith a lot, so I think
it's only fair to to bring him up. And oh,
by the way, they brought Darien Grubb down there to
be their offensive coordinator who had so much success. Not
darre It's I think Darian Grubbs a NASCAR.
Speaker 4 (33:32):
I was gonna say, did Ryan Grub become black over
the so many sports going on?
Speaker 1 (33:38):
It's Oh, yeah, No, Darian Grubb is a NASCAR crew chief,
so I'm running my two sports Ryan Ryan Grubb. Yeah,
my brother in law works in NASCAR. So I think
having Grub an offensive coordinator where he worked so well
(34:00):
with Kaylin de Boord Washington, I think that is gonna
end up having a lot of success there, no matter
who the quarterback is. I think Bama makes a little bit. Again,
it's Florida State, so it's not too much of a
statement given the rankings, but I think Bama could have
some people talking about them by the end of this
weekend as well.
Speaker 4 (34:21):
This is the least any BAMA team's ever been talked
about coming into.
Speaker 1 (34:24):
Which is scary, which is exactly what Alabama.
Speaker 3 (34:27):
Georgia I think them and Georgia.
Speaker 4 (34:29):
Yeah, I agree with that. Yeah, I think Georgia has
been talked about more than Bama. I guess I feel
like I've heard Gunner Stockton buzz more than I've heard
anything about TJ. Simpson or is that the right name?
Did I get to ty Ty Simpson?
Speaker 1 (34:44):
You at least have the fright first letter.
Speaker 4 (34:46):
Who's TJ Simpson. That's gotta be someone out there, Marshall, Yeah,
Tye Simpson. I kind of think this is a bigger
game for Bama and Florida State. If you're Florida State,
everybody knows what to expect you. It's kind of like
when they played Wisconsin last year. But if you're Bama,
like you've went through this whole offseason listening to Arch Manning,
listening to Texas, listen to people talking about Leonora Sellers,
(35:09):
listening to all these SEC teams that are apparently going
to make the playoff over you, and I've seen a
lot of people pick you to miss the playoff for
Alabama twelve team playoff coming off of one where you
missed last year. I kind of I'm tempted. I was
gonna ask you guys convinced me to bet or not
bet on Bama. I think I'm going to end up
(35:31):
betting on Bama. But what I will say for the
wives and girlfriends out there, three point thirty probably the
slate to take off if you're looking to, you know,
save your marriage in week one.
Speaker 1 (35:42):
We say that for like week six when everybody when
there's no top twenty five mashups. Right, It's it's Week
one football stack. All right, let's move into Let's do
a quick run over of Thursday and Friday. There's a
handful of intriguing games. I think Friday we agree on.
There's two big ones, at least in terms of a
Friday night State in Georgia Tech Colorado and alf Taylor.
(36:02):
But first let's go to Thursday. I keep wanting to
bet Cincinnati against Nebraska, and then I remember that neutral
Sight game, So I'm with that.
Speaker 4 (36:15):
Why do you want to bet Sincy there?
Speaker 1 (36:18):
Because I thought it was the Cincinnati home game, Okay,
and it's very much not. I just my brain gets
so warped this time of year, reading previews and overthinking myself.
But I do think a home a actual home dog
that's worth looking into. A South Florida plus five and
a half against Boise State. Look, boise is the better
(36:40):
team and it'll probably end up being the better team.
I'm a Byron Brown believer. I think he's one of
the best group of five quarterbacks. It's a shame he
hasn't been able to stay healthy, But I think South Florida, Look,
it's a five thirty Eastern kickoff. You're right in the
middle of the heat in Tampa. Still, it's one of
those weird games, like why would boys you agree to this? Look,
(37:04):
South Florida hasn't been the best, but still, why would
you agree to that? I like South Florida. I think
that's a sneaky little dog to open the season with.
I don't think there's much else really on the Thursday
Night Slate other than we're going to develop an opinion
on Dylan Royola and what he actually like. That is
the Thursday Night takeaway. What is Dylan Roola in twenty
(37:29):
twenty five? But I can't tell you that. And I
don't feel entirely confident in betting on Nebraska, but South
Florida I do.
Speaker 2 (37:37):
It's an interesting kickoff, a little five thirty happy hour there.
I got three things I'm looking at, haven't placed any
of them yet, But Buffalo plus seventeen and a half
I'm against Minnesota. Buffalo won nine games last year, one
of the favorites in the MAC this year. Miami of
Ohio plus seventeen and a half.
Speaker 3 (37:55):
Always win eight to nine games.
Speaker 2 (37:56):
There they're playing Wisconsin, and Wisconsin team that if they
don't win this game. They they Luke Fickle might get
fired now because they have arguably the toughest schedule in
the country, but that's a.
Speaker 3 (38:06):
Tough one to start with. In East Carolina plus fourteen.
Speaker 2 (38:09):
East Carolina over the past couple of years has actually
been pretty decent. And they're playing an NC State team
that I think is a huge unknown there, and that's
a rivalry game as well. Brace was kind of hyping
that up earlier. That's two schools that's kind of a
bit of an underrated rivalry. So three kind of group
of five teams that I'm lying up there against some
power forward teams.
Speaker 1 (38:30):
I'm just gonna have real quick. I think that I'm
looking at the Missouri under against Central Arkansas only because
that quarterback situation could go down south really quick. You've
both revealed the transfer from Penn State and Sam Horney,
who they're both supposed to get snaps. Look, I know
they're playing an FCS school, but that might be a
(38:51):
sloppy offensive game from Missouri. They'll win it by thirty,
but I think looking at that under maybe something worth
because I got a big question mark about what Missouri
looks like on offense, especially with their quarterbacks.
Speaker 4 (39:03):
I'm a bow leaver bo Prabula. I think will we'll
be fine by fine.
Speaker 8 (39:09):
I think they'll win the eight games, but that's fine
at Missouri. Yeah, that's Missouri football. Eight and four maybe.
But the only game that has my eye on Thursday
is Nebraska. I'm taking Nebraska minus six and a half.
I think the Cincinnati team stinks. I hate Scott Sadderfield.
I think that guy's an absolute loser. And you look
(39:29):
at how Cincinnati closed the year last year. They start
the season going five and two and beating in Week
seven or their seventh game, I should say they beat
Arizona State twenty four to fourteen at home, and then
Arizona State eventually goes to the playoff after that game
lost lost lost lost loss.
Speaker 4 (39:51):
It was five in a row to close out your season,
including you know, West Virginia, two CU teams that were
not all that good last year. I think Cincinnati I
see no reasonablieve they're not going to be one of
the worst teams in the Big twelve. And if you
crunch the numbers, two of their five wins were against
thousand in Miami of Ohio. I think Cincinnati is gonna
(40:13):
stink this year. So Nebraska is another one of these
teams where I read off the schedule for Pittsburgh and
I know we've done this with Nebraska before, and I
think I did this with Nebraska literally last year where
I was saying, oh, look at the schedule, they have
to go nine and three, they have all these easy games.
(40:36):
But look at the schedule, they have to go nine
and three, they have all these easy games. They at Cincinnati,
I think it's a win. Akron, I think that's a win.
Houston Christian think that's a win. And then you get
Michigan at home. Tough game, but it's a home game.
Michigan State at home. Not I wouldn't say tough or
not tough. At Maryland one of the easiest road trips
(40:58):
you can make in the Big Ten. Minnesota one of
the easiest road trips you can make in the Big Ten.
Northwestern at home. I think they're cradd as, like one
of the least talented teams in the Power five. USC
at home at least that games at home at u
c l A. There's not gonna be any fans there,
so it's not who cares. It's a road trip, but
you know, it's just traveling at Penn State it's a loss,
and then Iowa at home. There's only one gimme loss
(41:21):
on that schedule, and I think there's probably i'd say
three tough games.
Speaker 3 (41:28):
And the tough games though, Mark, that's their biggest thing
between Probably.
Speaker 1 (41:35):
He's still go to They're still gonna win the games. Dan,
He's got to do some one of those.
Speaker 4 (41:40):
Three games, because if you lose to Penn State and
you go one and two against Michigan at home, USC
at home, and iowad home, just be one of those
three teams you go nine and three.
Speaker 1 (41:53):
I really do think that let's circle into Friday. I
know we're very passionate both of the two games mentioned,
so let's hit on them quick. Look. I love Georgia
Tech big in this game. I'm a Haines King believer.
I think they're very well positioned to win this game
pretty easily. At Colorado. I think if Colorado makes any noise,
(42:13):
it's gonna be later in the season. Auburn Baylor has
potential to be drunk off the rails. I mean, look,
it's a huge freeze offense. They've got two really good
receivers at Auburn, am I sole on it's Jackson Arnolds
their starter, right, Yeah, yeah, yeah.
Speaker 4 (42:30):
It is like they're playing three quarterbacks. They're planning on
three guys getting snaps, and they're also not sure. They're
not sure who's calling plays on either side of the ball,
and they might switch on offense depending on the down.
Speaker 1 (42:47):
Well, that sounds pretty chaotic like Auburn football team, so
that fits the bill. I think Baylor. Baylor's got potential
to be really good this year. I know I've talked
about them, so I like Georgia Tech four and a half.
Actually like to text one of that game by double digits.
I'm really in on them there. And I think Baylor
money line. I think that's a pot play as well.
Speaker 4 (43:09):
That's about my bet of the week. My favorite bet
of the weekend Baylor plus two and a half. I
like the money line as well, but I'll take the
two and a half. Why not. I think Baylor's wighing
this game out right. I said before the year my
favorite future for the college football or NFL season this
year is Auburn under seven and a half at plus
(43:30):
one forty is what I got that number at. Tell
me why that is plus one forty. It makes no
sense to me. I'm not going to convince you out
of that.
Speaker 1 (43:42):
I love the That's the way I can describe my
thoughts that since we're running little on time, let's get
into Saturday real quick beef outside of the big games,
what game has your attention on Saturday?
Speaker 2 (43:54):
I like Indiana and our boy coach SIGs minus twenty
three and a half. You look at last year, they're
non conference opponents outscored them one sixty to twenty four.
Speaker 3 (44:04):
Now that does include a seventy seven to three.
Speaker 2 (44:06):
Win over our Western Illinois Leathernecks, but still they had
seven wins last year by twenty four or more points.
We saw, especially against these inferior opponents, he wasn't afraid
to keep his foot on the gas and blow some
games open. So twenty three and a half against an
old Dominion team that was picked to finish.
Speaker 3 (44:21):
In the middle of the pack in the Sunbelt. I
like that one.
Speaker 2 (44:24):
And the another one that caught my eye utsa plus
twenty four and a half. I've listened to a couple
pods that have them as one of the dark horses
to be that to do that G five spot. They're
plus twenty four and a half against A and M.
And we saw last year. I think it took A
and M a little bit to get rolling. I think
the biggest thing with A and M last year weren't
very consistent.
Speaker 3 (44:43):
Twenty four and a half.
Speaker 2 (44:44):
That's a lot of points to cover. I mean the
Southern Miss plus thirteen and a half and Toledo plus
nine and a half. We've talked about both of those matchups,
I think, but Southern Miss against Missippi State, and that
game's at Southern Miss in Toledo plus nine and a
half Kentucky.
Speaker 3 (44:58):
I think both of those are live dogs.
Speaker 2 (44:59):
If you want to throw out your cup of coffee
on the money line parlay with those two, I.
Speaker 3 (45:03):
Think that could be the option.
Speaker 1 (45:05):
I'm betting Southern Southern Mess out right at plus three
sixty in the money line, don't. I don't see a
world where Mississippi State is a thirteen and a half
point favorite or something. Miss alright, and I think we're
grading Southern Miss a little bit based off of the
last few years where they've been awful. They import Charles
Huff and I guess the third of the Marshall roster,
including the quarterback. I just think there's gonna be so
(45:27):
much more structure in that team. And if I don't think,
I guess Mississppi States the worst power for team. We
can have that debate another time, but I think they're
in the conversation. Yeah, Stanford's in there, but Mississippi State
isn't far behind in that conversation. Another one I'd point out,
just because I don't like the home team in this game,
(45:49):
FAU plus fourteen and a half. They're gonna score. Zach Kittley,
one of the youngest head coaches now in college football,
took over at FAU. He's been the stud oct a
few different places over the past few years. Brought Caiden
Dell camp with him from Western Kentucky. That's their quarterback.
So you have an experienced quarterback, some experience pass catchers.
(46:11):
They're not gonna play a lot of defense, so that
that's a downfall of an air raid team. But Florida
Atlantic should be fun, maybe like a first half line
against Maryland, who I believe is going to try out
a freshman quarterback. I'm not a huge fan of Locksley
in general, and I don't think Maryland is is that good,
so I think FAU might. That's that we pop up
(46:33):
at halftime of Texas Ohio State and if Faus closer leading,
I'll your surprise.
Speaker 4 (46:38):
How is Mike Loxley still a head coach in the
Power for It's unbelievable. I can't believe that's That's really one.
I'm just gonna throw out there. I'm not sure if
I'm gonna bet at this. This was on my list
to ask you guys if I should Michigan State minus
twenty and a half. I hate big numbers. I don't
like betting these games. Western Michigan was six and seven
(47:00):
last year in the MAC lost like their whole team
in Michigan State, a team that they only played one
like Cupcake last year in Prairie View, they did win
forty to nothing. Kind of I'm not really like all
the way there on Michigan State, but I will say
I feel like they'd be an interesting post type sleeper
this year. They do have like an interesting if they
popped and went eight and four, nine and three this year,
(47:22):
I would not be shocked. Aighton Childs at one time
was kind of a hot shot prospect, and he wasn't
terrible last year. He was just he was young. He
made some mistakes, he turned the ball over. I think
there is still something there with Childs. I'm kind of
interested in that game. I might end up maybe first
half or maybe Michigan State. When is twenty and a
half there?
Speaker 1 (47:41):
Real quick? Any other games I know TC you North
Carolina's Monday? I think are we all on TCU? Yes?
I might go.
Speaker 9 (47:49):
I might go with Geordana. Yeah, let's have some fun.
What's the total in that game? All fifty six? The
total might be played? Geo Lopez was Look, it.
Speaker 1 (48:01):
Was South Alabama, but they were one of the better
G five teams last year. Maybe I'll lean over, but
I think TC wins that game. Any other plays on
Saturday that have our attention before we wrap things up?
Speaker 4 (48:13):
Syracuse give me the give me the orange plus fourteen
and a half out there? I think, give me give
me that shade orange over the Tennessee shade orange. There's
just something that I feel like Fran Brown walks out
of this weekend is one of the stories of the weekend.
I don't know why I feel like that. Steve Angelly,
I'm biased, kind of wish he was the guy starting
(48:33):
against Miami for notre name of this weekend, but I
think Syracuse. I think they keep this game close. I
think this is the one where you look up at
halftime and it's like WHOA, Syracuse tied with Tennessee. I
could see it.
Speaker 1 (48:45):
There's potential for a few of this. I'll give you
one real quick Utah. It's a late night game. I'm tempt.
A lot of people are buying in on Utah and
I'm sold on UCLA. Nico's gotta win a few games
of decent note for me to care about him At
U C l A.
Speaker 2 (49:03):
I'll go with Beaver fever minus one and a half
at home against Cal. You're you're not gonna ride with
Malik Murphy on Saturday night, Mark, I might will Cox
as an underdog is like a.
Speaker 3 (49:15):
Thing a disaster. This year him and Ron Rivera are
gonna be at each other's neck. I think by the
end of this year.
Speaker 1 (49:21):
The problem is they lost so much. The lost Mendoza,
they lost Jaye, not like can they can you overcome that?
In Week one?
Speaker 3 (49:29):
I like Milke Murphy in the spot.
Speaker 4 (49:34):
I love Malik Murphy, loved the Beaver's I'm sure I'll
be on him a ton this year. I'm gonna stay
away from this one one last one, because I don't
know if I'm gonna end up adding it Northwestern at
two lane, Do either you have any read there by
jew quarterback now ju lane with Jake rhets laugh starting there.
I think I'm tempted by Northwestern. This was like a
(49:57):
late transfer for Ret Slaugh. He just ca in like
two months ago, maybe like a month and a half ago.
I don't know if he's like fully, you know, stopped
and ready to go there requested on the six and
a half points.
Speaker 1 (50:10):
I'm also playing my system and just betting Penn State
against an inferior opponent. It's fair because Nevada is bad
and Ben James knows the spread even when the backups
are in so forty four doesn't surprise me. Georgia also,
I know there. I think the number of things stuck
he put it out there that are own thirteen when
Kirby's thirty nine or more favorite, but Marshall lost like
(50:31):
their entire team. That actually might be a first half
play for me on UGA, just because Marshall is going
to be that bad. So I think we have I
think we've covered everything from from week one, from the
big games, even the big the big spreads. That's what
we do here as as the three resident Sikkos here
at the Gambler. We'll be doing this every week from
(50:54):
here on out, giving you our best bets and our
takes on the playoff, the Heisman, and much more so.
For Ryan and Mark Henry Junior. I am Joe Chanzy.
Thank you all for listening. We'll check you back next week.
Best of luck on your bets this week and Week
one of college football spreads, totals and all the prop
that's in the tweens. It's the Gambler.
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