College Football Betting Preview: Week 4 -- 9/18/24

Joe Tansey, Ryan "BEEF" Coyle", and Mark Henry Jr. preview Week 4's #CollegeFootball action!

Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:19):
Hello everybody, and wel come on into the Sports the
Camber College Football Preview Show. One day late for you, guys,
because a certain member of this podcast was doubtful with
illness yesterday, So a Wednesday edition previewing Week four myself
Joe Tanzy alongside Ryan beef Coyle and Mark Henry Junior. Guys,

(00:40):
this is the week where college football realignment really hits
home because the three Marquee games are three games that
have been significantly affected by conference realignment. Tennessee Oklahoma and
Oklahoma's SEC debut in Norman, USC's four first road game
in a Big Ten at the Big House against Michigan

(01:02):
and Utah. Oklahoma State is a huge game in talking
about the Big twelve title race. So it really is
a wrap your brain around realignment. And on top of that,
the Pac twelve still live alive and well a beautiful
thing to see. But guys, going into Week four, do

(01:23):
you kind of feel like, Okay, it's finally, for lack
of a better term, nut cutting time in some of
these conferences.

Speaker 2 (01:32):
Yeah, I mean, for sure, this is I think where
teams are gonna start to kind of separate. You know,
you've got the Arkansas States and the South Alabama Tech,
all those.

Speaker 3 (01:43):
Good guys, they're out of the picture.

Speaker 2 (01:45):
Now we're starting to get in the conference play, start
to learn about a lot of teams.

Speaker 3 (01:49):
Once we get into stock down, I'll hit on one
team that I think.

Speaker 2 (01:52):
We're gonna look back at in four or five weeks
from now and be like, how the hell were they
ranked at this point in time. So yeah, for sure,
starting to get into the nitty gritty. The bracketology talk
is starting to come into fruition as well, So it's
gonna be a fun stretch as we go on to
the rest of the season.

Speaker 4 (02:09):
It feels like we know the real contenders in each
conference now, and I think there's pretenders sprinkled in there.
But I think we know we can kind of give
the round number on how many teams we think can
currently win each conference, and it's not a large number.
It's probably a much smaller number than we would have
said maybe in August. Now that we've seen some of

(02:30):
the Arizona's in the Kansas and maybe the LSUS and
obviously Florida States and some other teams play, those numbers
have shrunk big time. So I think that you're just
going to keep seeing those numbers kind of shrink week
by week, but obviously not.

Speaker 5 (02:46):
To four this time to twelve. So it makes it
a little bit more interesting.

Speaker 1 (02:50):
So let's get right into it. Because our stock up
stock down for the college football Playoff this week, We're
gonna skip the Heisman because nobody really kind of moved
up and down. We'll have more on that next week.
We have some movement within the conferences, but I'm gonna
start because I'm just gonna go with one conference. I
know it's kind of really the easy way out to

(03:12):
pick the best conference in college football for my stock.

Speaker 5 (03:15):
Up, but that's fact six.

Speaker 1 (03:17):
Yeah, I'm taking the SEC as a whole as my
stock up in the college football Playoff, I can make
a legitimate case now for six to seven teams to
make the playoffs in the SEC. And I don't think
we'd batan eylash at it. I really don't. Look. I
know how the schedules play out, and I know there
will be games, especially involving Georgia, where everything does shake out.

(03:40):
But look, we have Georgia still number you know, still
in at least in my mind, number one, but they're
number two in the polls. You have Texas who has
been utterly dominant. H quin you weres injury something worth monitoring.
But they don't play a real game until the Red
Roads shootout on October twelfth. Alabama, look credit, it's due.
I know Wisconsin, you know, suffered an injury with Tyler

(04:03):
Van Dyke early on in that game. Still went out
and beat who they were supposed to be. We'll find
out a lot more about them against Georgia next week,
a game we'll talk at length about Missoo with with
the cupcake schedule that they have, definitely in the mix.
Ole miss has just beaten the brains off of everybody.
Wake Forest is scared to play them. That's how terrifyingly

(04:25):
good they are. Tennessee, you have Nico who is letting
the world on fire, and the hype train will only continue.
I think I'm missing one more in that mix.

Speaker 6 (04:39):
You could throw Oklahoma and LSU in there.

Speaker 5 (04:41):
I think we know, we don't think they are.

Speaker 4 (04:43):
Here's what I'll say, though, I don't think LSU is
that good, But here's what I'll say. You take a
look at LSU's schedule. All of their tough games are
in Death Valley. They are at LSU. We have it
so so far what we've seen from LSU, and I
know we're all low on them. We saw them lose

(05:03):
to lose to USC, and that was in Vegas, obviously
a neutral site. We saw them win at South Carolina,
not look good doing so, but they won by a
field goal. Probably should have lost. We could talk about
refs later maybe there. But I had LSU and I
was like, oh, this is probably a bad, badly officiated
game towards South Carolina. But they haven't really played a

(05:26):
tough game in Death Valley. We haven't seen If you
know this, this team can rise to the occasion.

Speaker 1 (05:31):
There.

Speaker 4 (05:31):
You look at nuss Meyer, He's been really good. Like
for the most part, nus Meyer has stepped up to
the plate. The defense has problems. You have to think
when we get to an LSU home game, that defense
probably plays a little bit better, plays a little bit
more up to the you know, up to the level
of the game. You look at their games.

Speaker 5 (05:50):
You have U C L. I didn't know that.

Speaker 4 (05:52):
I didn't know I was going to launch into an
LSBU thing, but I was texting Beef about this the
other day.

Speaker 6 (05:57):
You have U C L.

Speaker 4 (05:58):
A that's a win. You have South Alia that's a win.
Then you have Ole Miss in LSU obviously a really
tough game. Then you go at Arkansas, then you go
at A and M. That A and M game kind
of could be a swing game. It depends what Marcel Reese.
Looked pretty good last week, but we don't know what
A and M is yet. We don't know, you know,
losing the Notre Dame who we don't know what they are,

(06:19):
so it's tough to really judge A and M right now.
Then you get Alabama at LSU, obviously tough game, but
it's in Death Valley at Florida, Vanderbilt at home. Then
you get Oklahoma at home. Like if you go three
and one or not even three, yeah, three, let's say
the home games two and one in the Ole Miss,

(06:39):
Alabama Oklahoma home games, which I think they'll be favored
against Oklahoma. So it just means you have to win
one of Alabama or Ole Miss at home. I think
they're back in the mix, even if we don't think
they're that good.

Speaker 1 (06:51):
So I'll pose this question to you guys before we
get into more of the stock up and down six
teams right now, from the SEC heavy viable path to
the pluff you just outlined a seventh with LSU. Hell,
if Oklahoma gets their act together. They really haven't looked
great the last two games, but they're still in the
ranks in the top fifteen, and I mean, who, who

(07:11):
the hell knows what happens against Nico and Tennessee this weekend.
They until they're out, we got to consider them. So
the ACC is a one big leak that is pretty
much confirmed. Unless Clemson comes out of nowhere and wins
ten eleven games, I think that's really their only path.

(07:31):
The Big twelve is going to shake out really quickly
in front of our faces the next two weeks, because
not only does Oklahoma State play Utah, then they have
to turn around and play Kansas State next week. So
we're looking at a few elimination games in a row
with Kansas State Arizona. I think we can take Kansas
completely out of the picture with their two ugly losses

(07:52):
in the road Illinois and UNLV. So if we're narrowing
the bunch down pretty fast here, twelve teams get in
eleven from power conferences unless there's a lot of might
coming from the Big ten over the next two months.
I don't see the SEC cannibalizing itself to the extent
of we're down to four teams. I genuinely think we're

(08:15):
gonna have a debate come mid October late October where
we're gonna have six SEC teams in the mix. So
the Faux committee here, what do you do if six
of the clear best teams in college football, the ones
that we mentioned Georgia, Texas, Alabama, Missouri, Ole, Miss and

(08:36):
Tennessee are all in playoff contention, all with two losses
or less. The ACC is a one bid league. The
Big twelve can cannibalize itself. Who knows what will happen
in the Big ten, but there's still three spots left
for them. Is the SEC potentially a six bid league.

Speaker 5 (08:57):
I don't think it can get six.

Speaker 4 (08:58):
I think five is probably the max, which is, by
the way, why I'm kind of interested in looking at
Bama plus two fifty five to miss the playoff. We're
talking about all these teams in the SEC and how
loaded it is. I don't think they can have six
with two losses or less, just by the natural scheduling
of all most of these teams playing each other. So

(09:20):
and you look at this Bama's schedule, and it's brutal.
Everyone's talking about Georgia's schedule being really tough. I'd argue
Bama's is even tougher. It just doesn't have Texas on it.
It has Georgia on it. But you know, they played
Georgia at home, then they later on in the season
they go to Tennessee, they get Mizoo at home, they
go to LSU, they go to Oklahoma and then Auburn

(09:43):
not a good team, but it is the Iron Bulls.
You have to probably just throw it out there and
mention it. So I think that's a pretty nightmarish schedule
in my opinion, going to Tennessee and LSU and Oklahoma,
having to play Georgia. It's having to play Missouri as well.
That's five really tough games.

Speaker 1 (10:02):
I think there's maximum two losses at Ole Miss, Missouri
and Tennessee. At Tennessee beats Oklahoma. So that that's kind
of where I look at it. Is Bama looks really good,
Georgia has to play Texas and Alabama, But is Georgia
and Ole Miss.

Speaker 3 (10:20):
And Tennessee, right, So no, it's tough.

Speaker 1 (10:23):
Yeah, But if we're so if We're saying that Tennessee
and All Miss lose those games to Georgia, right, and Tennessee.
There's no upsets really with Tennessee and Miszoo and All Miss.
And then we have this little round robin of Georgia,
Texas and Alabama, Like, how do you you sort it out?
If these teams are near level? Right, it becomes a

(10:46):
tricky process because, like we said, it's the best conference
in college football, the ACC is shit. The Big Twelve,
although it's gonna be very entertaining, don't think there's gonna
be many top fifteen teams. So then we're looking at
Ohio State, Penn State, Oregon, maybe USC in the mix.

(11:07):
My point is, I don't know if there's going to
be enough contenders to say, well, we shouldn't put six
teams in. If we're looking at this, look, a lot
can happen. It's college football. Things can get weird and
the SEC is going to be a bear. But in
our current viewpoint, I mean it's a possibility. I think
we have to start talking about it.

Speaker 3 (11:29):
Well, I think it's weird to be or not weird.

Speaker 2 (11:31):
It's just different because this is the first year, Like
you have no data points that kind of use this
off of like, oh, six teams, I've never made it before,
or however the committee's thinking like, no, we're going to
put the six best teams in. We don't care about
spreading the wealth throughout the different conferences. If they're six
or the five remaining at large spots or the five
best SEC teams, they could just give it to them.

(11:54):
So it's kind of you know, pick your poison, have
your take on it. But we have no data points
that kind of sit back on from from previous tournaments
or previous brackets that could influence the committee or our judgment.

Speaker 1 (12:06):
Which is why which, Yeah, go ahead.

Speaker 4 (12:09):
The big question is how many big ten teams get in,
because thats the SEC more than anything I think. We
think Ohio State gets in no matter what. So then
it comes down to Oregon, Penn State, USC are the
only other teams we think have a chance at getting in.

Speaker 1 (12:25):
Probably Michigan, Michigan. Michigan makes Michigan makes a case if
they beat USC somehow.

Speaker 5 (12:32):
I'm not even considering Michigan.

Speaker 1 (12:34):
I don't want to, but I have to cast a
decent sized net.

Speaker 5 (12:41):
Nebraska.

Speaker 1 (12:41):
Nebraska is going to be in the conversation ahead of
that Ohio State game for sure.

Speaker 4 (12:46):
I just think, yeah, I think Nebraska probably drops out
after that Ohio State game, and there I.

Speaker 1 (12:51):
Would think so year.

Speaker 2 (12:52):
But we still have USC on the schedule down the
stretch too, so that could be looked at. You know, however,
USC season goes as a good win as well. I mean,
I certainly think there's there's a path there for Nebraska.
I think selection Sunday though they'll i'd say more likely
be like that first team out rather than the last team,
the last at large team.

Speaker 4 (13:12):
Then I think the real questions USC and Penn State
what do we think they're getting in?

Speaker 5 (13:17):
Do we think they're real?

Speaker 4 (13:18):
Do?

Speaker 5 (13:19):
I guess more so USC.

Speaker 4 (13:20):
I feel like Penn State, it's not really even worth
talking about them yet until we see what they are
in a real game. But USC, do are we taking
I maybe this can segue in I don't know if
you guys want to, but are we taking them seriously
as a as a playoff team?

Speaker 2 (13:38):
I mean, essentially two games so far. But I think
the biggest thing with them is it hasn't been talent.
It's been basically effort and just willingness to tackle. And
I don't care if it's middle school football, high school football,
or FBS football.

Speaker 3 (13:51):
You put a shutout up on the board.

Speaker 2 (13:54):
On the defensive side, you got something cooking there, at least,
just a willingness to tackle, because that team at doesn't.

Speaker 3 (14:00):
We're five star guys all over.

Speaker 2 (14:01):
Now they have a good defensive coach in place as
well as guys that are in position to tackle and
willing to tackle. That was kind of their biggest flaw
last year, just the willingness on that side. And you know,
Lincoln's always going to have a good offense in place
at the end of the day too, So I certainly
think so. I think this week, I'm sure we'll get
into it more. But this game is really going to
decide my opinion on them. Do they get manhandled at

(14:23):
the line of scrimmage or what do they show up
and look like in the big house, because it really
is I think the last ditch effort here for Michigan
to write the ship and potentially, you know, go on
a run to make themselves a playoff team.

Speaker 3 (14:33):
But I think that's more of a team that's going
to be fighting for a bowl game at the end
of the season.

Speaker 1 (14:37):
I think it's a ken they play a grinded out
Big ten game because they're gonna have to play a
few of those, all right, So we get a little
derailed there, but not a bad thing, because I think
that's honestly, I think that's the biggest topic right now.
We got Georgia Bama coming up next week, and that's
kind of where my brain's at. The SEC is really
damn good. But we all knew that, b who's your
stock up in terms of the college football playoff?

Speaker 2 (15:00):
I think that was one of the more impressive performances
of the weekend. We know that they're going to be
able to run the ball and score the ball, but
what they did on defense as well, shutting down that
high flying Arizona attack thirty eight to seven win. I'm
really impressive, and I think it's a great spot for them.
All they got to do is get by BYU this week.
BYU has started out a little bit better than anticipated.

(15:22):
I think you go on the road, so anever easy
primetime type game. He's got to get by this week,
and then you get Oklahoma State next week at home
coming off what is most likely going to be a
war against Utah.

Speaker 3 (15:33):
So I think it's a great spot for Case State.

Speaker 2 (15:35):
Probably be favored by at least a score in that
one as long as they win this week, and then
you look at the rest of the schedule at Colorado
at West Virginia versus Kansas, at Houston, versus Arizona State
versus Sincy. I think they're favored the rest of the way,
and then they finish up with at Iowa State. We'll
see how Iowa State season goes the rest of the way,
but I think there's a path where Case States favored
the rest of the way and they could run the table,

(15:56):
potentially be undefeated regular season and headed into the the
Big twelve. Is one of your top four seeds or
excuse me, into the conference championship weekends one of those
top four seeds.

Speaker 1 (16:05):
There might be a road game that trips them up.
I don't know which one, but they're very good at home,
and I think that has to be taken into account
of where they stand with Oklahoma State, because getting them
into Manhattan next week is huge. I think whatever Kansas
State number is, you kind of have to think about
taking that right because it's it is going to be

(16:26):
a war. And we'll get into that a little bit more.
But yeah, it's going to be fascinating to see how
the Big twelve plays out. Mark, who do you got
for your stock up in the college football Playoff this week?

Speaker 4 (16:36):
I'm gonna go a little bit off the board. I'm
going with a team that's not in the top twenty
five right now. They only had six votes to get
into the top twenty five right now, but they're sitting
at three and oh and they had a kind of
crazy comeback win against TCU. They were down thirteen late
last week, and they're the first team in the Big
twelve to put up a conference winn on the board.
UCF with kJ Jefferson and RJ. Harvey and that running

(17:00):
game that Gus Malzon has worked up there is dangerous
and the guy you know, say what you want about
Gus Malsan when he gets a rushing running quarterback, and
when he gets a running game going, he usually gets
it going. And you look at this UCF schedule, maybe
in the preseason it looked a little tougher than it
does now. You got Colorado coming up after they have

(17:24):
a week off this week, sitting at three and zero.
Colorado at Florida Cincinnati, a big game at Iowa State.

Speaker 5 (17:32):
I'm a little lower.

Speaker 4 (17:32):
On Iowa State than consensus, so I think that's a
very winnable game for UCF BYU Arizona at home, Arizona
not as good as we thought, at Arizona State at
West Virginia, West Virginia not as good as we thought,
and Utah at home. I think that that's a pretty
manageable schedule for UCF to potentially get into this Big

(17:55):
twelve title game conversation, I'm kind of talking myself in
as NSS drops out, as Arizona drops out, even West
Virginia as like a fringe potential kind of Big twelve
contender drops out, someone's got to jump in. And I
think u CE FTCU was a little bit of a
kind of a playoff game to kind of get that spot.

Speaker 5 (18:16):
As a little bit of a wildcard for the rest
of the year.

Speaker 4 (18:19):
I kind of walked out of a lot looked out
of that game feeling better about UCFNTCU.

Speaker 1 (18:24):
I'm gonna go a little off the board as well
for my stock down, and my stockdown is Northern Illinois
because I look at what the Toledo Rockets just did
against Mississippi State, looked really good. In the MAC. I
also think the Mac's not going to have a shot
at the Group of five spot. I think a team

(18:44):
of Memphisis caliber is going to have a really really
strong chance. I don't care what the win over Florida
State means or what it doesn't mean. That's a veteran
ball team right there. And the fact that they went
in there and played really well from the start against
Florida State set the tone with the fumble. First fumble
on the first drive seth Henigan's a veteran quarterback. Now

(19:06):
this goes against everything that I'm gonna say at the
end of this show, because there's a huge spot that
goes against Memphis this week. Hint, Hint, Service Academy. But
I think Memphis is gonna be in the driver's seat,
and I don't think Northern Illinois is gonna be here
for long. They're propped up because of the win over

(19:26):
Notre Dame, but I genuinely think that the way Toledo
and this also goes against what I'm gonna say about
Toledo later on, but I think the MAC is going
to be strong enough where Northern Illinois just kind of
gets washed into the river here and a team like
Memphis and the AAC or Boise from the Mountain West

(19:48):
ends up getting the group of five spot and not
the MAC.

Speaker 4 (19:51):
I think Boise is definitely going to be an interesting one,
especially if Oregon kind of plays their way out of
whatever there's kind of slump is.

Speaker 6 (20:01):
I think we saw them start.

Speaker 5 (20:02):
To do that last week.

Speaker 4 (20:03):
That's that three point loss at Oregon is gonna look
better and better and better where it's to the point
where I think them going eleven and one, it could
even get in over like a twelve and oh team.
If a team's schedule isn't necessarily as good and yet
not a lot of games left on the schedule that
scare you for Bois besides next week against Wazoo.

Speaker 2 (20:24):
Yeah, I kind of feel bad for Memphis because I
think going into the season that was a game I
got pointed to. I was like, if they get that one,
I think there's a good chance they go twelve and
oh and they're sitting there looking like the best team
of the group of five.

Speaker 3 (20:37):
That could be looked at as a as a win
against like a three and nine team at the end
of the season.

Speaker 2 (20:42):
For how far the States look so far, So I
think that could get used against some one team. I'd
say keep an eye off for two. I know it's
two wins over two big twelve teams. I probably are
gonna have great seasons. But UNLV, I think last year
they had a really strong year, but really great team
against the spread too, thirteen and four over the past
two years.

Speaker 3 (21:01):
Write that one down.

Speaker 2 (21:02):
But I think they played Boise as well, so that
could be a big time head to head and then
potentially meet up with them again in the Mountain West
Championship game. So keep an eye out for UNLV as
one of those long chock kind of dark horses as
we go on throughout the season.

Speaker 1 (21:15):
Yeah, they hopped on everybody's radar after that Friday Night
went over Overcan spariot him one hell of a coach? Beef?
Your stock down for the college football Playoff is all right?

Speaker 2 (21:24):
So I'm gonna go a team that's actually three to oh,
number fifteen in the nation Oklahoma.

Speaker 1 (21:30):
Yep, they suck.

Speaker 2 (21:31):
Yeah, you might say, why is that team stock down
for being three to oh? I watched a lot of
that Temple game that they beat them fifty one to three,
and you'd be like, how are you gonna say anything
bad about that, Well, Temple turned it over six times.
Oklahoma in that game only went one of twelve on
third down. Jackson Arnold hasn't thrown for over two hundred
yards and any of the three games so far had
a dog fight against Houston sixteen to twelve win, who

(21:54):
UNLV beat twenty seven to seven. And then that game
against Tulane last week. Tulane had a good comeback towards
the and Oklahoma kind of had a backbreaking touchdown down
the stretch.

Speaker 3 (22:03):
But you look at Oklahoma's schedule.

Speaker 1 (22:05):
Yeah, we don't talk about that too late. I had
two and plus thirteen and a half.

Speaker 2 (22:08):
Yeah, so did I. But Oklahoma scheduled the rest of
the way past Tennessee. This week, there's a seven point
home dog at Auburn. You never know what Auburn's going
to show up as. But then you have Texas South Carolina,
who looks pretty competent, maybe like a seven and five,
eight and four team at all Miss.

Speaker 3 (22:26):
Then you get Maine. I'm at home at Miszoo versus
Baman at LSU.

Speaker 2 (22:31):
I think you could put that right up there with
Florida and Georgia potentially as the toughest schedules the rest
of the way. I think, even sitting here at three
and oh, it could be a struggle for Oklahoma to
be BAWL eligible. And they were my team I was
talking about earlier, where We're going to look three four
weeks from now and be like, how the hell was
that the number fifteen team in the country. I just
don't think that they're built for the SEC yet, nowhere

(22:51):
close to what Texas was as they transitioned over, So
Oklahoma' stockdown for sure.

Speaker 1 (22:55):
I think the gap between Nico and Jackson Arnold is massive,
and I think that's what ends up being on display
on Saturday night. Look, I watched a decent amount of
that that Tulane game the second half, and Tulaine came
back on him. You know, they've gotten some ground. And look,
Houston is viewed as one of the worst Power four

(23:17):
teams in the entire country, and they got into a
rock fight with Oklahoma. So yeah, I'm not I am
not sold at all in Oklahoma. I don't think the
primetime boost, I don't think the game day boost. I
think that does absolutely nothing for it. I think Tennessee
is just an absolute machine. Mark your stock down in
the College Football Playoff.

Speaker 4 (23:37):
Is I'm scrambling a little bit because I was ready
to go with UH with Oklahoma there that was that
was bad prep by Mark. But I'll go ahead and
I'll talk about Texas A and M. And you'd say,
why talk about Texas A and M. They just came
out and won. I'll say, how is Marshall Reese not

(23:58):
starting going into this season? Connor Wegman stinks? That's all
I wanted to say. That's all I wanted to get
that off my chest. How does Mike Elko, this kind
of guy we're talking about as a genius who did
come out and beat Florida. I'll give him credit, you know,
I don't know that's like, you know, beating a dead
body at this point, But I.

Speaker 6 (24:18):
How do you go with Wegman over this guy?

Speaker 4 (24:21):
He looks so much more interesting? And that's another wrinkle
in the SEC. It's gonna come It's kinda kind of
come down to the LSU's, the A and MS, the Oklahoma's.

Speaker 5 (24:30):
I guess, like that mid tier of the SEC.

Speaker 4 (24:33):
How many games against the big dogs are those teams
gonna win? So it's kind of determined how many teams.
Can he get it because those are kind of got
Those are kind of the teams that have to at
least pop those teams for a couple wins.

Speaker 5 (24:45):
But I that's not.

Speaker 4 (24:47):
Really I guess their stock is necessarily up because their
quarterback's good. But I also could argue their stock their
stocks down because the coach is an idiot for not
playing them.

Speaker 1 (24:56):
All right, so let's get into the Week four slate.
Three big games. Obviously, we've been hinted at all of
them so far, but let's get to the betting angles
of them. Tennessee at Oklahoma. This number compared to where
it was preseason has flipped dramatically. I don't know how
much stock you want to put into that. I specifically

(25:17):
don't because we just it's all guesswork. We don't know
how good these teams are, and the lines right now
are probably a much better representation of where we stand.
It's also why I hate betting lines in the in
the you know, three weeks in the future, because you
never know what's gonna happen. Tennessee's a seven point favorite,
I think deservedly so. I think if you bet them

(25:39):
anything within a touchdown, it's a slam dunk here. And look,
we know Nico is the superior quarterback, but we haven't
talked about Tennessee's defense. They're pretty damn good as well.
And you have a quarterback in Jackson Arnold who's turnover pro.
He suffered nine sacks already this season. That's a defense

(25:59):
it's gonna get after him, and I think that's gonna
make the difference in this game. You need defense to
win championships, and that's the old addage and it's cliche,
but I really think that's the difference here with Tennessee.
I don't think Josh Hipel's had this good of a
defense during his tenure. Combine that with an old world quarterback,
I think this is a great game for Tennessee to

(26:21):
make a huge statement.

Speaker 3 (26:22):
In Yeah, I agree.

Speaker 2 (26:24):
This is my Texas Michigan version of Week four dog
walking of the Week. I think Tennessee is going to
go in there and absolutely roll them. I always talked
about how out I am on Oklahoma. I think that
gets exposed on center stage, and I think if you're
in that camp as well, Mark, I'm hopping on the
train with you. I think you should put in a

(26:46):
future on this team to win it all. I think
talent wise, are up there. I'm still intrigued to see.
This is Nico's first road start, so I'm interested to
see that. I don't think it's that big of a
test with Oklahoma, but I'm still intrigued to.

Speaker 3 (26:57):
See how your fares against some of these bigger SEC opponents.

Speaker 2 (27:01):
But I took them at twenty to one last week
during that Kent State game.

Speaker 3 (27:04):
It's now down to fourteen to one, and I think
if they go.

Speaker 2 (27:07):
Into Oklahoma and beat up on them like many of
us expect them to, that number is gonna go down
to probably ten to one. Talent Wise, these guys are
up there with just about anyone. They can compete on
both lines of scrimmage. They have a big time playmaker
at QB and a badass coach in hype ball. I
think he's an awesome coach, Dylan Samson, a really good
running back. It's about as complete of a team as
you can get. So I think, look at them, if

(27:29):
you think they're just going to win this game, potentially
take that national title ticket now, because that number is
just gonna keep going down.

Speaker 3 (27:35):
This could be the number one team in the nation
after that Alabama game. I really think that if they
continue to roll the way that they are.

Speaker 6 (27:41):
You can find one out there.

Speaker 5 (27:43):
I think there's value there.

Speaker 1 (27:45):
I agree, I think there's plenty of value on that.
I'd also stick the under in this game under fifty seven. Look,
the Tennessee score lines are what stand out right and
seventy one to nothing against Kent State, who, by the way,
is a forty nine point underdog in Happy Valley this weekend.
That speaks more about how bad Kent State is, I believe.
I believe the Athletic rank them won thirty fourth this

(28:08):
week in their overall ranking one to one thirty four. Look,
I think the key here I've just said it is
Tennessee's defense. Oklahoma's just played in two grinded out type
of games. They haven't given up a ton of points
to Houston and tu Lane, but they didn't blow them
out either. I think it's kind of a combination of
everything we've seen from these teams so far. Look, Tennessee

(28:29):
is gonna put up points. I don't know if Oklahoma
again I see something around like the thirty to fourteen,
thirty one seventeen type game, it's gonna be I think
a feeling out process at the start, and then I
think we see Tennessee run away with it. But I
think we're gonna come away talking about Nico more. But

(28:51):
I think the star of the show is going to
be the Tennessee defense.

Speaker 3 (28:54):
I am a little concerned though.

Speaker 2 (28:55):
It feels like I have not heard a single person
in the world beyond oklahom Oklahoma.

Speaker 4 (29:00):
Yeah, guys on the Chris Faalica, the Bears, college football bets,
pod or are all on Oklahoma because kind of of
that reason, everyone's on tennis.

Speaker 1 (29:12):
So I mean, look, it's college sports. You never know
what you're gonna get. I mean, I don't know. If
I would, I would go ahead and say that's the
reason why you should do it. But I just I
see the two units. I've watched a little bit of
Oklahoma the last two weeks, and nothing really impresses me. Now,

(29:32):
if that number get if that number starts to move up,
then you can maybe convince me to take Oklahoma within
maybe that at like ten. But I don't think I'll
get that high.

Speaker 5 (29:42):
I think Tennessee.

Speaker 4 (29:43):
I don't really have much to add, to be honest,
you guys covered it pretty well.

Speaker 6 (29:46):
But yeah, I think the defense is.

Speaker 5 (29:49):
The difference maker.

Speaker 4 (29:49):
Hypel's never had this type of defense and has never
had a player like James Pearce on the defense because not.

Speaker 5 (29:55):
Many come around.

Speaker 4 (29:56):
So I think Tennessee takes care of business here against
I host a podcast with Shane Half who does Eagles content,
a really good Eagles follow up.

Speaker 5 (30:06):
He is a big Oklahoma fan. He's actually from Oklahoma,
so he's a diehard.

Speaker 4 (30:11):
I do a podcast with him breaking down college football
prospects and I told him to his face, I was like,
I'm sorry, I think you're getting spanks this week. I
think Tennessee is coming into town for Oklahoma's first SEC game,
and I think they win by multiple touchdowns.

Speaker 1 (30:25):
Yeah, let's talk about some other line movement. Utah at
Oklahoma State. So Cam Rising. The latest we have is
that he's playing and Cam Rising is apparently worth two
to three points on the spread. Because this number opened
up over the weekend. Oklahoma State was favored. I've seen
it as high as two and a half in Utah's favor.

(30:47):
Utah is now a one and a half point favored
against the Pokes and still Water. Can we trust Cam
Rising to stay healthy for a big game? I think
that's the biggest question around Utah.

Speaker 2 (31:02):
I love it's a finger injury too, which kind of
concerns me on the throwing hand. I mean, when you're
playing the quarterback position. I feel like that's a important
thing for this game though. At home, Gundy has been
great as a dog. I think I saw these fourteen
and fourteen straight up since he took over in two
thousand and five as a home underdog, and sixteen eleven,

(31:26):
sixteen eleven and one as a home underdog against the spread,
fourteen and fourteen straight up as a home underdog, which
is ninth best in the country and fourth best amongst
Power Power for schools.

Speaker 3 (31:36):
So he's been great in these spots at home.

Speaker 2 (31:39):
For me personally, though, I really am concerned about Ali Gordon.
I remember watching that game against Arkansas a couple of
weeks ago, and I was like, Wow, he looks slow
behind the line of scrimmage and he's only averaging three
point four yards per carry. All those touches last year
might have added up. I think he's the key in
this game to kind of expose exposed Utah's defense a

(31:59):
little bit in this one, So he needs to get going.

Speaker 3 (32:02):
I'm a little bit worried about that. I don't know
if I'm going to bet this one.

Speaker 2 (32:04):
Because I have Oklahoma State at plus six fifty to
make the playoff. I kind of might just be rooting
for them to win this game. But came Rising with
the hand and the finger. That could be something that
we see him go out there for a few series
bothers them a little bit too much.

Speaker 3 (32:17):
And we get Zach Wilson's brother back in from Utah.

Speaker 1 (32:20):
There's a bunch of ten year players in this game.
It's the Perry Ellis Invitational. Keep an eye. I know
we talked about Ali Gordon, and we know make a
lot about the quarterbacks being there forever, but Brendan Presley
has been there forever too. The wide receiver at Oklahoma State.
We're looking at difference makers that may not be the
obvious ones. Oklahoma State's defense hasn't been anywhere close to

(32:46):
exceptional in the first few weeks of the season. Are
they gonna have to air it out and match a
healthy Rising or Isaac Wilson, whoever it may be. But
I think in this case they're going to turn to
their veterans. I think Presley is a guy to kind
of circle going into it to potentially have a big
game to connect with Alan Bowman, because Oklahoma State's gonna

(33:09):
need a little diversity in their offense. It can't just
be all Ali Gordon. It can be He's shown in
the past that he's capable of it, but I think
you turn to a guy like Presley and then you
look to that wide receiver corps to come in and
make a little bit of an extra difference in a
game that you got to pour everything into before you

(33:29):
can worry about k State because if you don't win
this one, next week becomes a lot less significant. So
that's the way I look at it. I'm kind of
undecided though I look I think Oklahoma State can win
this game, but their defense gives me concerns on actually
betting them.

Speaker 4 (33:48):
They're either my biggest bet or my second biggest bet
this week.

Speaker 5 (33:52):
I love Oklahoma State.

Speaker 4 (33:53):
You look at Cam Rising, He's thirteen and zero at home.
He's played the same amount of games on the road
and new show.

Speaker 5 (34:00):
How many of those do you think he's won.

Speaker 4 (34:03):
Six and seven, seven and six, seven and six as
a on the road or in neutral spots. And you
look at Utah in general, so good at home, just
classically so tough to beat at home.

Speaker 6 (34:15):
I do not think they lose a home game this.

Speaker 4 (34:17):
Year if you go look at their schedule, but they're
two and seven in their last nine ranked road matchups,
and the two wins are against USC teams that close
the year at seven and five and four and eight,
So they're kind of fake, fake ranked road wins. So
they haven't had a real ranked road win since twenty sixteen.

(34:38):
And then on the other side of things, like Beef
might have said this stat it was he said the
fourteen and fourteen stat, but since twenty sixteen. Also Mike
Gundy nine and one as a home dog. Crazy numbers there.
I think this is just such a classic Gundy spot,
such a classic winningham kind of lose spot before they
win eight in a row and then they'll be nine

(34:59):
and one, Like it just feels classic that Oklahoma State
wins here and then maybe let's down next week and
lose this and they kind of can if you win
this game, if you're Oklahoma State, you.

Speaker 6 (35:08):
Can probably lose against Kansas State next week and.

Speaker 1 (35:11):
Be fun potentially, I mean, because you know you got
to bake in the one or two Gandhy losses that
put yourself in a spot that you can't but which
which is it's impossible because Gundhy is going to do that.
I feel like what we're doing and this is it's
down a shot. It feels like we do this with
a lot of teams. It's like a float chart. Is
this team on the road do you bet them?

Speaker 4 (35:34):
Know?

Speaker 1 (35:34):
Is this team at home? Do you bet them? Yes?
Utah has got a little Utah's got a little bit
of that vibe to them. There's there's a bunch of them.
It's weird. It applies a lot more in college football
than it ever will in the NFL. But I think
in these specific instances, yeah, there's there's some you can
break out the float chart and kind of copy and
paste on on what exactly to get out of those teams.

(35:57):
The Big Ten has a big game this USC at Michigan.
That feels really weird, like really really weird to say
that's a Big Ten game. So Michigan's going with a
quarterback change. Alex Origi is in for Davis Warren. I
don't know about the timing of that. We'll see USC
starting off the season high Miller Moss looks pretty good.

(36:18):
The defense under new defensive coordinator Danton Lynn looks very impressive.
What the hell do we make of this game? I
feel like it's a grind it out, big ten type
of game. The odds makers are very decidedly in USC's
favorite the spreads five and a half. What kind of
game are we getting here? Boys?

Speaker 3 (36:39):
I think you look at the under in this one.

Speaker 2 (36:41):
I think Michigan learns from what happened to Texas when
Texas went up there and they tried to I'm not
gonna say get cute, but they tried to trust Davis
Warren and tried to throw the ball a little bit.
I really think that they're going to go into this
game and say, we're going to make USC come in
here and beat us ten to seven. We're going to
do everything we can to just keep the ball in
the ground, keep the ball on the ground, and keep

(37:02):
the ball on the ground. You look at Orgy coming
in at quarterback his fatal fall. You can't throw the ball.
That's a bit of an issue as a quarterback, but
I think it also gives you not an advantage, but
the chance to just get into third and manageable if
he gets into a scenario where it's third and two,
third and three, he can use his legs and potentially
get you a first down. They're just gonna want to

(37:23):
keep the clock rolling, keep USC off the field on
offense as much as possible. And I do think still
they have the advantage up front against USC. I know
I was talking about them earlier and how they have
the talent and they shouldn't the willingness to tackle and
stuff now be in better position, But I still think
Michigan isn't going to necessarily let what happened in the
Texas game happen.

Speaker 3 (37:44):
And that was they got cute a little at the
beginning throwing the ball.

Speaker 2 (37:47):
Texas was able to expose them with a couple quick
touchdowns and it was all over from there. They have
to keep this as low scoring and as slow as possible,
and it's still the big House. I mean, I do
have USC winning this game. I think that they'll cover,
but I do think Michigan puts up a much better
fight than the Texas game. Obviously, a real low scoring,
ugly Big ten games, and Michigan basically says USC, welcome

(38:08):
to the Big Ten. You're gonna have to win this
way eventually, let's see if you can do it now.

Speaker 1 (38:12):
I actually when I first saw the number Lin to Michigan,
that was before the quarterbacks.

Speaker 5 (38:17):
Are my two least favorite I cut out there.

Speaker 1 (38:25):
You're still there. Oh we lost, Mark. So I looked
at this line initially Beef and saw five and a half,
and I'm like, I think this is this is a
Michigan line. Now, I don't know. I'm not a fan
of changing the quarterback before a big game. I think

(38:47):
you do this maybe before like a Maryland or Nebraska.
Maybe Nebraska anymore, but Maryland or Illinois one of those
types of teams. I just I'm not sold. I think
I'm gonna stay far away from this game. I think
the mindset of the the under is probably the best
way to go. But it's forty four. I mean, that's

(39:07):
a that's a tough fee. I just I just don't
know where. I don't know where Michigan's points are gonna
come from. I think that's the the problem. Mark. You're
back in close tie the bow here on Michigan USC.
I think this is a USC beat down spot. And
these are my two least favorite teams in the country.

(39:27):
So you can promise I can promise there's no bias.

Speaker 4 (39:30):
So I hate them both equally, but I think USC
this is kind of I remember a couple of weeks
ago we talked about Tennessee, NC State, and to me,
that was obviously a much different type of team than Michigan.
But I said, this was my prove to me you're
a playoff team game for Tennessee.

Speaker 5 (39:47):
This is kind of that for USC. Prove to me
you belong in.

Speaker 4 (39:50):
Those playoff conversations and take care of a Michigan team
that can't complete a forward pass in twenty twenty four,
and I think they will. And the best thing is, like,
you get down in this game, what are they going
to be down ten to nothing, thirteen to nothing? Like
I think Lincoln Riley can get a couple of touchdown
jobs together if they're you know, down thirteen nothing at halftime,
even like I just don't think Michigan can pull away. So,

(40:13):
no matter what I think, you're in this game, if
you take USC, I think you have a way better
And this isn't how you should bet necessarily, but I
think you have a way better chance of looking in
the mirror and feeling like an idiot. If you bet Michigan,
then you do if you if you bet USC, there's
not a lot of scenarios to me that Michigan's winning
this game by more than three. And I think there's

(40:34):
not a lot of scenarios they're winning the game period.
I mean, you look at these USC receivers, and I
understand how good Michigan's cornerbacks are. Will Johnson is one
of the best players in the country. But Texas was
able to make stuff happen, and I'd argue USC might
have even better receivers than Texas's.

Speaker 6 (40:49):
And you look at how good Miller Moss has been.

Speaker 4 (40:51):
I'm just buying into USC and it pains me to
say it.

Speaker 1 (40:56):
Let's do a quick spin around the rest of the
college football landscape. There's plenty of other plays to get
in that we will get in before Saturday and in
the game's lock. But what has your attention. Let's say
a money in the crumbs type game. When we say this,
because I got a potentially a few of them, what
are you guys looking at outside of the big games?

Speaker 2 (41:21):
One money in the Crumbs game, I guess it could
consider that I'm going to go to Penn State, Kent State,
I took Tennessee minus thirty and a half first half
last week against Kent State and it was thirty seven
to nothing at the end of the first I think
Penn State, coming off of bye, especially with what happened
against Bowling Green, they come out in this one ready
to go, raring to go. I mean, Ken State just
all seventy one nothing. I cashed in on them live

(41:44):
at plus eight one and a half at football game.

Speaker 3 (41:48):
But I just think that's a defeated kind of beat
down team.

Speaker 2 (41:51):
And I know that they got blown out so bad
last week, but they were just getting destroyed at the
line of scrimmage. I think Penn State pushes them around,
and it's a scenario where Penn State usc next week.

Speaker 3 (42:03):
Is that the twenty.

Speaker 1 (42:04):
Eighth, I believe it's two weeks from.

Speaker 2 (42:06):
Now, okay, but yeah, so, I mean, I just think
Penn State puts puts the foot on the gas early
the full year. Weeks from Okay, the full game spread
is in it is forty nine. I think they could
cover that as well, but they're gonna get up by
by six touchdowns I think in the first half.

Speaker 3 (42:21):
So I'll just ride with that. Mine thirty and a
half in the first half.

Speaker 1 (42:24):
Do you take the first half number of thirty and
a half, that's a big one.

Speaker 3 (42:29):
Yeah, that's what I said.

Speaker 1 (42:31):
Okay, I missed that. I was checking Penn State schedule, So.

Speaker 2 (42:35):
Yeah, yeah, that was my play thirty and a half
in the first half, because that's Tennessee.

Speaker 1 (42:39):
The week before my bad I zoned out. I was
I was in the middle of checking the Penn State
schedule to make sure we were right there. A lot
of zoning out being done here these days. I'll give
you guys a big one here. Actually, I'll give you
a few because I've done some research on these and
I want to get your guys opinion. At a group
of five, I like the Southern miss Jacksonville State over sixty.

(43:04):
Jacksonville State they don't have a defense. They absolutely do
not have a defense. They rank in the bottom ten
in every defensive metric. Take a while, guess who so
then misses quarterback?

Speaker 2 (43:17):
Is guys, not Frank Orsona anymore running wildcat down there, It.

Speaker 1 (43:24):
Is Tate Ronnemaker. This is a game where it should
be a ton of offense. Jacksonville State has played zero
defense all season long. The over sixty I'd gladly take that.
There's a few other spots I want to mention. Colorado

(43:45):
State is minus nine against UTEP. I bet utep, I
bet against utep last week against Liberty, they could not
get the ball in the end zone. And that's against Liberty,
who I don't rate too highly in the five conversation.
I think Colorado's is a much tougher team. I take
them at minus nine. I think that's a bounce back
spot for them. And two spots potentially for letdowns. One

(44:11):
is Tulane at Louisiana. Look at the Cajuns at plus three.
The reason I say that is Tulane just came off
of two really tough games against k State and Oklahoma,
and then Navy plus nine against Memphis. Just look, it's
not exactly gonna be the the easiest play because Memphis
is very good and they've seen the triple option before.

(44:34):
But man, that seems like a really tough one to
get up for right away. You end up having a
big win at Florida State. I don't care what Florida
State is, it's still beating Florida State. You have to
go to Anapolis and face the triple option. That's gonna
be a tough one, maybe Navy in the first half,
but those are a few that have caught my attention
at the group of five levels.

Speaker 6 (44:54):
I think with Oklahoma State right there, this isn't.

Speaker 4 (44:57):
Really money in the crumbs, but anninth matchup with Oklahoma
State this is my other favorite bet of the week.
I know that they gave up a heartbreaking kind of
thing that I talked about earlier with UCF, but I
love TCU this week at SMU Tcuron Skillett on the
road here and I'm getting I'm taking TCU. I also
like the team total over thirty and a half. Fun

(45:19):
stat They've scored thirty one plus in ten straight years
against SMU, and they might have their best quarterback that
they've had in any of those years. I know that
they've had a couple of good ones, and obviously the name,
the name that's Max Duggan had a great career there.
Josh Hoover is third in all of college football in passing,

(45:41):
only behind Jackson Dart and cam Ward. Josh Hoover no
interceptions as well, one of the best quarterbacks in the
country so far this year, and he closed last year
playing really well. I think that this TCU team is
going to be a really, really good offense all year long.
The defensive side of the ball is another conversation for sure,

(46:01):
but I haven't seen anything from SMU that shows me
they're going to be able to take advantage of that.
Against Nevada by the offense didn't look good in either
of those games.

Speaker 5 (46:11):
Have not.

Speaker 6 (46:12):
I bet UCF against TCU, and I loved UCF in
that game.

Speaker 4 (46:16):
But you see, if had the offense to kind of
take advantage of TCU's problems, especially on the ground, I
don't see SMU being able to do that. They they
don't really have anyone that they They have no running game.
It's all on their passing game, and it hasn't been
that great. So I really like TCU in this potentially
to my favorite I want to hit.

Speaker 1 (46:36):
You guys with two quick things on the way out,
involving teams that were in the spotlight last week. First
and foremost, does Florida State Can they get it together?
They're only a two and a half point favorite against Cal.
By the way I came across this this week, Cal
Twitter is apparently off the rails incredible with t playing

(46:59):
teams in the South now they went all after Auburn
fans and they're going after Florida State already. Can Florida
State get it together? Are they destined for zero and four?

Speaker 2 (47:09):
I think if you bet in Florida State at any
point the rest of the season, you're a sucker.

Speaker 3 (47:13):
That's terrible. That is the most. I can't wait though,
for that game against Florida.

Speaker 1 (47:20):
I think that.

Speaker 2 (47:20):
I think that game might just result in two fights,
just punches being thrown, helmets taken off, like the effet
screw it.

Speaker 3 (47:28):
Our season sucked ball.

Speaker 2 (47:29):
I mean, that is going to be an absolute s show,
I think at the end of the day. But yeah,
you're a sucker if you bet on Florida State the
rest of the year.

Speaker 3 (47:36):
I don't care.

Speaker 1 (47:37):
You don't have considered it this week.

Speaker 2 (47:39):
You don't have to, you don't have to bet against them,
but you can't bet for him the rest of the year.
And I also thought it was funny DJ dju I
was looking at a stats today, six hundred sixty six
passing yards on the air.

Speaker 3 (47:49):
He's the devil that ruined Florida State football.

Speaker 1 (47:51):
I actually I looked. I looked at it real quick,
and I considered it for a second. The interesting thing
about Yeah, interesting thing about Cal. And I'm not going
to read all the Justin Wilcox underdog numbers. I'll just
tell you that which really good as an underdog is
what I'll tell you.

Speaker 6 (48:08):
But fun fact about Cal.

Speaker 4 (48:10):
Obviously they go down to Auburn and they won that
game as a big underdog on the road. Their best
player coming into this year was very clearly jayde Nott,
who was a guy who's getting NFL looks as a
running back. He's got twenty three hundred yards over two seasons.
In that game against Auburn, he had ten carries for
eleven yards and got hurt in the first half. So

(48:31):
they did all of that against Auburn on the road
without their best player. He's missed that, he missed the
game after that, he's coming back for this game. So
I think that Cal might potentially be a sneaky team.
So I like Cal to take care of business here.
And I even if I didn't think they were a
sneaky team, I might like them to take care of
business against this corpse of Florida.

Speaker 1 (48:51):
State one more Kansas State going out to Provo. Not
saying it's a tough game, it's just a tough It's
it's a trap spot, is what it is. It is
one hundred the trap spot of the week, going out
to Provo. It's the only night game, It's on ESPN,
everybody's watching it. Just beat Arizona, it got Okay State

(49:15):
coming up. Do you fall into the trap or you
just let this one be? Let the Mormons handle it.
I'm not touching.

Speaker 2 (49:24):
Yeah, probably, I'm probably not touched on this one. But
Chris climb and against the spread wagon number two since
he took over. I think it is kind of weird
though how it's the same number as that Arizona game.

Speaker 3 (49:36):
Certainly a look ahead spot and could be a fall
flat spot.

Speaker 2 (49:40):
I'm actually going to New Orleans this weekend, going to
be on Bourbon Street, so I think I might have
to wager if this is the only game on TV.

Speaker 3 (49:47):
But we'll see how We'll see how Saturday goes.

Speaker 1 (49:51):
That is. I saw that in my Dad's just the
biggest trap spot of the of the century. There for them,
it's gonna be it's gonna be tough, but that's just
how college football. You have all those spots throughout the season. Well,
that wraps up our week four preview here on the
Gambler for Mark Henry Junior, Ryan Beef Coyle. I am
Joe Tansill. Be back on Tuesday next week for our

(50:12):
Week five slate. I think I know what game we're
gonna be talking about, guys, Georgia and Alabama. Very excited
for that. Best of luck on your bets everyone, and
we will talk to you next week