College Football Betting Preview: Week 5 -- 9/25/24

Joe Tansey, Ryan "BEEF" Coyle", and Mark Henry Jr. preview Week 5's #CollegeFootball action, and talking UNLV being the center of college football for the day.

Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:18):
Hello everyone, and welcome on into the week five college
football gamesleague three of you here on Fox Sports The Gambler, myself,
Joe Tansey, Ryan Beef Coil, and Mark Henry Jr. And guys.
Before we get into any of the games for Week five,
one of which is a massive one, there is a
big news development today, excuse me, a big news development

(00:41):
today involving unlb's quarterback, who a lot of you have
never heard of and will not care about again after today.
But we got to talk about it real quick because
it's the hot button issue. Along with re alignment. UNLV
is the center of the college football news cycle. It's

(01:01):
all seems a little bit silly now that all the
facts have come out, doesn't it.

Speaker 2 (01:06):
Yeah.

Speaker 3 (01:06):
I thought an interesting thing I saw about an hour
ago on Twitter as well was Jaden Mayava, the UNLV
quarterback last year who transferred to USC thinking that he
could be the start of there. He's only the backup,
but transfers out of UNLV, and apparently that was part
of the reason as well, due to.

Speaker 4 (01:22):
The nil promises or money or whatever.

Speaker 3 (01:25):
All the speculation is he said, she said, So it
seems like it's a running theme. They also just had
their fourth leading rusher on the season enter the portal.
I even saw right before we hopped on Bear Alexander
from USC just entered the portal as well, So this
could be a running theme going on and coming forward.
But the funniest thing I saw today was someone said,

(01:46):
this is basically like a drug deal gone bad.

Speaker 4 (01:49):
You don't have any rule, you don't have any law.

Speaker 3 (01:52):
It's all a bunch of he said. She said, someone
is going to get screwed at the end of the day.
So I'm sure it's not the it's the first one,
but it's not gonna be the one that we see.

Speaker 1 (02:00):
In this You get these things in writing. It doesn't
take a rocket scientist to figure these things out. If
you were being offered one hundred dollars one hundred thousand
dollars allegedly in IL money, instead of having just a
verbal handshake agreement on it, why don't you get that
written down on paper, Because now the U and l

(02:21):
v an IL collective can say, well, this wasn't true whatsoever.
The coaching staff is like, what are you talking about?
And oh, by the way, maybe you should probably do
a little more research on your agent there. Buddy, because
it turns out that that seems like at least that
the big lion here that the agent told him he'd
get one hundred k and then il money, and that

(02:44):
was not the case whatsoever. So look, somebody's not telling
the truth. A quarterback that a lot of people didn't
care about was in the news for twenty four hours
and let's be honest, we're not going to care about him,
and the UNLV football team apparently is not going to
care about him much after because if you see all
the the things on social media today, they're more than

(03:07):
ready to get behind the backup, which, by the way,
is a three man competition. You know, Matt Sluka, the
guy who came in from Holy Cross, the one who
referring to today, won a three man battle in camp.
He wasn't he wasn't there in the spring. So it's
very fascinating to see this all unfold. But the more
facts that come out, it seems like it seems like

(03:30):
there's more fault on the agent's side than anything, and
then on the player in the family for you know,
not completely getting this down on paper. It seems pretty
simple to me where this went wrong. The running back
did tweet out that he wasn't transferring because of an il.
You know, who knows if that's actually the truth behind it,
but that's what he did tweet out, so I guess

(03:50):
we have to take him for his word, although that's
an awkward time, right for you to say you're transferring
the day of the biggest NIL debacle. And on top
of that, un l V is in the Mountain West
for now, but not in the Mountain West depending on
how that shakes out, and the newest realignment rumors. We're

(04:11):
at seven and seven in the PAC twelve in the
Mountain West, and that benefits absolutely nobody to try and
get an automatic birth for your conference champion. So un
l V in the middle of a lot of things,
probably for not the best reasons. And look, let's be
honest that the realignment thing, I don't know if you
guys want to hit on that real quick, but the

(04:32):
PAC twelve is doing the right thing by rating the
Mountain West. But I don't know where you go from
here if the Mountain West is kind of firm at
seven and I'm hearing reports that un l V made
the might change their mind because of Utah State, which
is the most assinine thing ever. But that's that's realignment.

Speaker 5 (04:54):
My take on realignment and NIL issues and all these
types of things.

Speaker 2 (05:00):
This is off season conversation.

Speaker 5 (05:02):
We got games, we got lines, we got totals, we
got things to bet on, we got a playoff. We
could talk about some hypotheticals with Like, I just think
there's real football going on. I don't have any conversation.
I don't have any interest in the realignment stuff. The
Pac twelve can hold their horses and figure it out
in January.

Speaker 1 (05:22):
Although it is it is notable, though it is notable
though UNLV apparently Matt Sluka is worth four points on
the point spread because UNLV dropped to a pick them
against Presno State, which I actually liked them a lot
more now than I did twenty four hours ago.

Speaker 2 (05:39):
I kind of like you. I kind of like you,
and I'll be.

Speaker 4 (05:41):
There too, thirteen four against the spread. The last two years,
Culture and the Boys.

Speaker 1 (05:48):
It just feels like a game where they just kind
of say f you to this guy and move on
to the the new guy, which it might be the case.
So that's gonna be the fascinating thing to follow it
as well. Well, you talked about the playoff mark, Let's
get into it because we've had some shifting parts outside
of the SEC. In the Big Ten, I think the
only big development, at least right now in the SEC

(06:12):
is Miszoom might not be as good as we think
they are. But that may or may not be a thing.
It really depends on how the season shakes out. But
going to double overtime, it gets Vanderbilt not really a
great look, but they won. That's all that matters. The
Big Ten, Michigan there's the big one here. Michigan beats
USC last week. So when we look into the eyes

(06:35):
of the College Football Playoff, we have Ohio State, Oregon,
Penn State as this top tier of the SEC, the
Big Ten, and then Michigan's creeping back in USC. We
still have to keep them in the conversation, but it
feels like outside of that, I guess eleven to twelve

(06:57):
team pack from the two major conferences. The number of
College Football Playoff contenders has significantly dropped off in the
last two weeks.

Speaker 4 (07:09):
Yeah, Miszoo is my stock down.

Speaker 3 (07:12):
I think even if they get to eleven and one,
they'll get in. But I think if they're a ten
and two team they'll be kind of like that first
team out because that schedule that they have in front
of them isn't that great.

Speaker 4 (07:23):
Struggled against Boston College last week.

Speaker 3 (07:25):
Or two weeks ago, whenever that was now last weekend
against Vanderbilt. They just really haven't looked at in present
on paper too, and they have a few big games
where they could go out there and prove some stuff.

Speaker 4 (07:36):
But I'm there with you, Joe. They were my stock.

Speaker 3 (07:37):
Down for this week, this Missoo team. I was definitely
expecting more from them. The defense has been pretty solid
to start the year, but the offense I was expecting
to be a much more explosive thirty five to forty
point type of game offense, and they've been disappointing. So
stock down for me for sure is Miszoo, and I
think that they could be a team on the outside
looking income selection someday.

Speaker 1 (07:58):
Well, we're getting right into it. In the bulk of it,
A stock up stock down for the playoff. I'm glad
you brought that up right away, because my stock down
is the entire group of five outside of the Mountain West.
Because if you if you look at how we painted
this picture, even just a week ago, Toledo went into
Mississippi State. Now, look, beating Mississippi State this season means

(08:20):
absolutely nothing, but the fact that a MAC team went
into Starkville and one still raises a few eyebrows. So
Toledo popped themselves into the conversation. Northern Illinois for beating
Notre Dame popped themselves at least into the conversation not
saying these are actual playoff teams, but because they're you know,

(08:40):
Memphis going to Florida State and winning. Look, that still
means something to people who have who go by name brand.
But then you look at those three teams. Toledo loses
at Western Kentucky. A weather delay in that game screwed
everything up in Western Kentucky came out guns Blazer and
ended up winning that game. I was on the topper,

(09:02):
so I don't really mind how that game played out,
and I U LAIS and I get home against Buffalo
and then Memphis another game I was on with Navy.
Not to brag or anything, but it was probably the
only bets I won. Navy beats Memphis pretty badly. So
now we have three three more group of five contenders

(09:22):
just washed away. It seems like it's Boise State or UNLV,
and that's it right now. When it comes to the
group of five contenders, Boise States snuck into the top
twenty five UNLV. Who knows what's gonna happen there. Look,
I'm sure other teams will emerge because years.

Speaker 2 (09:41):
You know who's laying in the wake.

Speaker 1 (09:44):
Go ahead four.

Speaker 2 (09:45):
And oh already you know Liberty.

Speaker 4 (09:48):
Obviously, I live bet them.

Speaker 3 (09:51):
Saturday night, before I went to bed against ECU, they
were losing seventeen to Seventiest Carolina.

Speaker 4 (09:55):
I live bet themunt plus one fifty at HIT. But
we have to week. They're they're not doing anything really
to convince me if they're on that spot.

Speaker 3 (10:03):
But they're gonna be in there. They're gonna be at
that at the table.

Speaker 4 (10:06):
At least they have a good quarterback.

Speaker 2 (10:08):
They put up points. But yeah, it's they're not special
at all.

Speaker 5 (10:12):
They just play such a garbage schedule that this is
their toughest test is probably this week.

Speaker 2 (10:20):
This is probably the shortest favorite they'll be at app State.

Speaker 5 (10:24):
By the way, I like Liberty, throw them on my card,
but I think they're only a three point favorite in
that game at app State. We saw app State last
week like, this is not a very good app State team.
So if we're saying this is their toughest game, they
just lost for fourteen to South Alabama, Like, can.

Speaker 1 (10:42):
I stop you there for a second, I'll take app
State this weekend. Okay, all right, I will. I know
exactly what you're saying, and I agree with you wholeheartedly.
But if if the if Liberty is a team that
isn't that great and they look they haven't really the
eye test yet, that's still a tough road game, and

(11:03):
app State can get up for it, I think, and
I know we're gonna fast forward into picks here. I
think app State is a sneaky dog. There's a reason
why that line's only three and a half. And I
think that they got their asses kicked by South Alabama
and by not only and by Clemson. But you can
expect the Clemson one, but the South Alabama one on

(11:24):
Thursday night on a national stage. I think that wakes
them up a little bit. I'm not saying, you know
they're gonna go ahead and win this G five berth,
but I think watch for them as a as a
dog this week. So we've done both of our stock
downs for the playoffs so far? So Mark, why don't
you join the conversation.

Speaker 5 (11:43):
I could go a bunch of different ways, but I'll
go with Oklahoma just to kind of.

Speaker 2 (11:47):
Pick them up and move them in garbage. Yeah, get
rid of them. Jackson Arnold.

Speaker 5 (11:52):
I can't believe I had to sit through an offseason
hearing about Jackson Arnold.

Speaker 2 (11:56):
And Oklahoma and how they're gonna come into the SEC.

Speaker 5 (11:58):
And Beef was absolutely right when I think he brought
up last week even that that he I forget what
he said on the pod that they were going to
struggle to make a bowl game or struggle to get
the seven wins, but it's definitely looking like that, and
we're what we in your three for Venables Now they're
at Oklahoma.

Speaker 4 (12:18):
It's already too.

Speaker 5 (12:20):
It's it seems like that off season of coaching movement
that was so kind of unprecedented. It felt like with
Brian Kelly goes from Notre Dame to LSU, you had
Marcus Freeman go to Notre Dame, you had obviously Venables
to Oklahoma, Lincoln Riley to USC, and all of those

(12:43):
kind of big jobs are sitting around then they're like,
we're not where we thought we'd be three years into
this and maybe Notre Dame is the one, and that
you can excuse a little bit more since they hired
a defensive coordinator and not like the big fish where
they go, they went and poached a big name like
a Lincoln Riley or a Brian Kelly. Is also is

(13:05):
fickle in year three Wisconsin, you two your two, Okay,
never mind, So that doesn't fall under my my curse,
my curse theory of that offseason. But also I was
thinking about that today.

Speaker 1 (13:17):
I'll say this about Oklahoma and they're playing a team
that looks like they made the wrong hire too. With
too free as at Auburn this coming week. Oklahoma could
get by with their defense. The problem is they need
a quarterback, and the quarterback situation it looked they I

(13:41):
think they did the right thing by naming Hawkins, their
freshman a starter. He gave them some pop on offense
last week in the second half, even though they were
already dead against Tennessee. I watched a few Oklahoma games
and Jackson yn'to just he doesn't have it. I'm sure
like somewhere in the Sun Belt will gladly take him

(14:03):
for next season. But it's it's just not popping for him.
So I think they have to go to Hawkins. And look, uh,
I'm kind of tipping my hand here. I like Oklahoma
against Auburn this week just because Auburn's a dead dog
walking and you can least you can at least say
Oklahoma has life on defense and they'll get behind this

(14:25):
this new quarterback. But in terms of the playoff, yeah,
we ain't talking about them anymore.

Speaker 5 (14:30):
Wait you you didn't hear Hugh Freeze say that if
if they played Arkansas nine more times, they would have
won all nine.

Speaker 2 (14:37):
I don't know what happened.

Speaker 1 (14:40):
Is so full of crap. I mean, it's amazing he
got another sec job.

Speaker 5 (14:46):
He is such a huckster, such a it's unbelievable. There's
no one like Hugh Freeze.

Speaker 1 (14:50):
And there, look, you need, you need some of those
Jabbroni's as head coaches in college football. That's what makes
this makes this world fun. But yeah, he's not long
for that job either, which shocker, Auburn is going to
go through another coaching change.

Speaker 5 (15:05):
I can't believe Auburn got swindled into Hugh Freeze like
it's actually it's shocking.

Speaker 1 (15:13):
It is the one perfect Auburn thing, though no one
thought it was gonna work, you know, except for Auburn.
Let's head over to our stock up part of the
program here for the playoffs. Be if who is on
the rise in your mind when it comes to the
twelve team playoffs.

Speaker 3 (15:33):
I regretfully we'll say Clemson because they heard my stock
down a few weeks ago, I think after the Georgia game. Actually,
but you look at the rest of the schedule coming
up and had tip to them as well.

Speaker 4 (15:44):
They've played really well.

Speaker 3 (15:46):
On the offensive side of the ball after that Clemson game,
and they've shown the ability to score. Kate Klebnick has
certainly looked a lot better. But that schedule from here
on out's really easy. Not many tests, I think. Like
one of the biggest tests I thought on that schedule
was towards the back half of the year when they
traveled to Blacksburg.

Speaker 4 (16:02):
Still, who knows, that's a night game, don't rule anything out, but.

Speaker 1 (16:06):
It was about them anymore.

Speaker 4 (16:08):
Yeah, Yeah, that's that's what I'm saying.

Speaker 3 (16:09):
Like I'm not feeling agreed about that being a test,
but who knows what the night game there?

Speaker 4 (16:13):
But Clemson, I think should be able to.

Speaker 3 (16:16):
Walk into ten wins, potentially even get to eleven.

Speaker 4 (16:20):
So I think we'll be seeing them versus Miami in
the a SEC title game. Maybe Louisville has something to
say about that.

Speaker 3 (16:26):
But Clemson, I think plus two hundred right now to
make the playoff I think is worth worth a look.
I think there's a chance that them or them and
Miami could get in, depending on how the top of
the SEC shakes out with multiple losses. But Clemson is
definitely looking a lot better than after we wrote them
off that Week one game against Georgia.

Speaker 1 (16:47):
Mark, I'm gonna tee you up for your stock up
because I kind of want to do a broader conversation
about mine with the other two conferences. So who is
your stock up? And maybe this plays into what I'm
about to say.

Speaker 5 (16:59):
My stock up is Utah and they went into Oklahoma
State last week. I was on Oklahoma State and man,
they're a couple kind of dead dog losers right now
in the Big twelve. In Oklahoma State and Kansas State,
you have to feel I mean not to mention even
like Kansas and Arizona, but there are a lot of
teams we thought would be kind of competing for the

(17:21):
Big Twelve championship. That just don't look the way we
thought they were going to look. Oklahoma State, Yeah, I
won't give away my Heisman stock down, but they just
don't look anything like the offense we were hoping for
with the running back. We were hoping to be a
Heisman candidate, and Utah was able to take care of
business even without Cam Rising or with that Cam Rising

(17:42):
playing one play. I do think Kyle Whittingham is too
obsessed with like messing with injury reports. It's actually insane.
But you look at Utah's schedule now that they got
that win.

Speaker 2 (17:53):
Home on the road.

Speaker 5 (17:55):
I put that in confusing terms there, but they have
no hard games left, two ranked games left, and their BYU,
who we don't know what BYU is going to be
in six weeks. I know that they've been a fun
story so far, but that's at home in six weeks
and then.

Speaker 2 (18:10):
Iowa State at home in eight weeks.

Speaker 5 (18:12):
They don't play any of the other top teams in
the Big Twelve, not that there are many of them,
but Arizona at Arizona State, TCU at home at Houston,
BYU at home at Colorado, Iowa State at home, and
then the one that I think is actually their toughest
game left on the schedule is the last game of
the year at UCF. I actually think UCF is going

(18:33):
to have a pretty decent year this year, so I
think that game could be tough in the Bounce House,
and you see, it's a tough place to play. But
I think Utah is at max losing one game, so
I think they're going to be in the Big Twelve
Championship at the very least, which puts them in the conversation.

Speaker 1 (18:49):
You mentioned one team there that I'm gonna throw in
here as a stock up because they are undefeated and
their schedule breaks very nicely for them to be in
this conversation until mid November. That's the Iowa State Cyclones.
If you're gonna buy stocking them, buy stocking them now
because because of the way the schedule breaks now. And
this is if you're looking for pure value right on

(19:12):
the board, and it's kind of what we're speculating. We
don't know who's good in the Big Twelve, but we
do know who's bad, right and we know the Kansas
and Arizona probably out of the mix completely. Kansas State
Oklahoma State are playing in the loser Leaves Town game
in Manhattan this week, and kse State has been phenomenal
at home. So that's it seems like everybody thinks Case

(19:35):
State's getting through and Utah has already been sharpened into
the Big twelve championship. Well, there are a bunch of
other teams that are now waiting to come into the spotlight.
UCF is one of them, BYU is one of them.
But I think Iowa State, with the way their schedule breaks,
their road games between now and November ninth are at
Houston and at West Virginia, two places that they can win.

(19:58):
UCF does come to Aim, which I think at that
point probably be a top twenty five matchup if things
go their way, but they close with Utah and Kansas State,
one on the road, one at home. You look at
the makeup of this team, now, I guess you'd go
rock up back to a veteran quarterback now right, I'm
just looking at teams that are kind of on the

(20:20):
fringe of the discussion right now that maybe in two
to three weeks time we pop up and say, oh,
they're six seven to zero, and should we be talking
about them? A little bit more. I think always state
it's going to fit that blague.

Speaker 5 (20:34):
I'm not a Matt Campbell guy, so that makes me
upset to talk about, but it sets up well for them.

Speaker 2 (20:40):
I just don't believe in them. I don't think they're
that good, but.

Speaker 1 (20:43):
We're going to have none.

Speaker 2 (20:45):
Yeah, yeah, right, And this.

Speaker 1 (20:46):
Is how it breaks over Yeah, this is how it
breaks every season, right, because we have these teams that
we thought were contenders preseason that have been completely wiped
away from the picture. And now we have these teams
the BYUS, the UCFS, the Iowa States to the world
at that second tier of the Big twelve. Are they
for real? We don't know, but they're gonna keep winning

(21:08):
and we have to, you know, continue to add them
into the conversation. And well, look, we see this every year. Right,
It's a very real possibility that the three teams I
just mentioned have two to three losses in conference play
and we're somehow still talking about Kansas State and Utah
at the end of the season, like that's a very
real possibility. But in terms of I think I think
that's what happens as well. But if you if you

(21:31):
look at the way I was stay at schedule breaks
and who knows how the Big twelve goes. Just keep
a keep an eye on them real quick. We're gonna
do Heisman really quick here because I really want to
get into a kind of detailed preview here for Georgia Bamas.
So Mark, give me your stock up and stock down
for the Heisman race.

Speaker 5 (21:50):
I I don't even have a stock up ready, so
I'll just go stock down. Olie Gordon fee you, yeah ya, buddy,
and then I'll say stock up. It's a guy who
should be considered but probably won't be, is Will Johnson.
Will Johnson's probably the best player in the country. And
I know everyone's gonna say that about Travis Hunter, and
I think Beef is gonna make that argument, and he's
probably right in terms of like the value of the

(22:12):
value of playing both sides of the ball. But I
don't think anyone's better at their position than Will Johnson.

Speaker 2 (22:18):
Is at his.

Speaker 5 (22:19):
And he's gonna be a guy I'm obsessed with for
the twenty twenty five NFL Draft, and I know we
I do a pod with with Shane Half and Dives,
and he's a guy I've already kind of falled over.

Speaker 2 (22:29):
I think he's gonna be a stut at the next level.

Speaker 5 (22:31):
I think he's a guy who should get Heisman consideration,
but that's not gonna happen.

Speaker 1 (22:37):
If you're stuck up and stock Down for the Heisman
this week.

Speaker 4 (22:40):
Yeah, stock Cup, I'll go with Hunter.

Speaker 3 (22:42):
I mean, we come on here and say it all
the time that what he does on both sides.

Speaker 4 (22:46):
Is it hasn't been seen before.

Speaker 3 (22:49):
I don't think he's at the end of the day,
gets invited. I still think the overall usage is going
to be a little bit too much, but he has
to be in that conversation and every notable football podcast
I listened to. I'm sure all those guys have votes.
They're all in there talking about how he should be
the Heisman. So he's going to be as long as
he says healthy in the conversation at least. I just

(23:09):
think he's gonna be used a little bit too much,
that some durability issues will creep up, kind of like
they did last year, and then stock Down, I'm gonna
go with Arch this time. Last week, him and yours
were both twenty one the Heisman viewers. Doesn't play last week,
He's up to fifteen to one Arch all the way
down to forty to one doesn't really exactly like the
world on fire against you al Monroe last week. I
think it's pretty safe to say that it's going to

(23:32):
be yours job when he's able to return, which I
assume will be after the bye week when they play Oklahoma.
So Arch, we'll see you next year, buddy.

Speaker 4 (23:40):
It was good. It was a good little run for
one week on Twitter.

Speaker 3 (23:43):
Maybe you have a good week against Misissippi State this week,
but we'll see you in a twenty twenty five.

Speaker 5 (23:48):
Those conversations were so mind numbingly dumb that I was
reseat about Arch taking over. Unbelievable stuff. But by the way,
I will people are like, oh, quinn Ewers could still
win the Heisman. I've heard that on multiple podcasts today.
Quinn Ewers is not winning the Heisman missing multiple games.

(24:09):
I don't know who I need.

Speaker 2 (24:10):
To tell that.

Speaker 5 (24:10):
I'd love to go through the Heisman of recent years.
I don't think any of them were missing multiple games.
Maybe I'm incorrect there, but there's just too many guys
out there putting stats up. I mean, look at where
Jackson Dark already is. I know he hasn't played anybody.
But look at cam Ward, like you think people are
gonna look at yours stats in ten games and be like, oh, sorry,
more impressive than Darton Ward or Ashton Johnsy or whoever

(24:33):
you want to say, Like, I just don't.

Speaker 2 (24:35):
I don't see that.

Speaker 1 (24:36):
I'll put one caveat to that. If Texas goes undefeated
through the SEC and you were, and you were plays
every game, he'll at least be in the mix.

Speaker 2 (24:46):
Maybe he'll be in New York, maybe he'll get votes.

Speaker 5 (24:48):
I don't think he can win if with missing multiple games,
I don't think he can.

Speaker 1 (24:52):
Win that's fair. I just don't know. I mean, look,
he's gonna miss you El Monroe in Mississippi State.

Speaker 5 (24:58):
I think it's more about the stat So when we're
looking at the end and we're it's so so yeah, exactly,
it's so short of a season. He's only gonna have
played ten, maybe eleven games with the with the conference
championship factoring in. But I just I don't think when
we look at the stats of the cam Order a
Darty's played twelve thirteen games compared to yours is stats

(25:20):
in ten games, it's gonna be hard for people to
give him the not that's fair.

Speaker 1 (25:26):
I don't disagree with it. I'm just saying, like I
can see in my crystal ball come November, if Texas
is still number one and undefeated, he'll be in the
mix and people will people will try and justify it.

Speaker 2 (25:37):
I could see it being in the mix.

Speaker 5 (25:38):
I could see it being like in the conversation, I
just can't see him winning.

Speaker 1 (25:42):
Sure my stuck up. I'm just gonna say, because Clemson's
gonna keep winning. Kake Club, Nick, I know you gotta
be there, and who would have expected them to put
up the offensive numbers that they are. Look, I don't
think they're for real, but when you play the fluffy

(26:02):
underbelly of the ACC for the rest of the season,
you're gonna put up numbers and you gotta be there.
You know it's maybe come November he's six or eight
in the discussion, it's probably not number one, but he'll
be there and it'll just be sitting there probably what

(26:23):
thirty to one, forty to one like he is now,
And I'm like, oh, Kate Club Nick, still there. My
stockdown is all the Missouri guys. It's not looking great.
This was the time the stat pad and I know
Luther Burton's had some one hundred yard games, but people
are gonna remember you barely beat Vanderbilt, and it's just

(26:46):
it's just things that stick in everybody's mind. And the
light schedule, and like I was high in Missouri going
into the season, I'm not fully convinced on Missouri four
weeks into it.

Speaker 2 (27:00):
Burden's a little overrated. I'm willing to say it.

Speaker 5 (27:02):
People came into the year like, oh, he's like a
top player in the country, he could win a heismanute receiver,
he best receiver in the country. I watch him and
he's really good. I'm not like blown away though it
was like any of the top three receivers that just
got drafted, like Harrison Neighbors O donsay. I think I
think all those guys jumped off the screen way more
in college than a Luther Burdener, even the guy I

(27:23):
like in Teddy or McMillan in Arizona. I don't think
those guys jump off the screen the same way. Not
an incredible receiver class this year.

Speaker 1 (27:31):
So let's get into the big one. The first of
the big ones this year, Georgia and Alabama Saturday Night
in Tuscaloosa. The Dogs are a two point favorite over
Understanding at forty eight and a half. A lot of
people are making the case that Bama shouldn't be a

(27:51):
home dog. It's the first time, what since two thousand
and nine seven? Look, I know who we're split down them,
it seems like on this one. So we'll just make
this simple, beef. You give me the case why bam
is gonna win, and mister Uga down in the barber
in the screen mark Henry Junior. After that, you give

(28:13):
me the case by Georgia wins.

Speaker 3 (28:16):
My first point is real simple, real square. But the
fact that they're the home team in this one, I
tend to lean towards that. I think college football and
college basketball are the two sports that I lean towards
a home field advantage more than any other, especially NFL, NBA,
like MLB, even like we saw with the Phillies last

(28:37):
year in the playoffs, we thought that they were invincible
diamondbacks going there and win two games at home.

Speaker 4 (28:42):
Like I value the home field in.

Speaker 3 (28:44):
College football so much more than any other sport, So
obviously I have that on my side there. And then
I think we see this time and time again in
big spots with Patrick Mahomes, the ability on third and
fourth downs to use your legs, to have that kind
of mobility in these big games, in these close games
where you're just gonna live and die with the ball

(29:05):
in your hand.

Speaker 4 (29:06):
I like that with Jalen Milroe over.

Speaker 3 (29:08):
Carson Beck and the mobility factor there. I think Jalen Milroe,
if he has to have it, whether it's a seven
yard rush or a fifteen yard rush, I don't think
that Alabama's ever out of it with him, with him
with the ball in his hands. So I think on
third and fourth down in these clutch situations, I'm gonna
lean towards Milroe because he can hurt you both factors,
and in close games, you need to convert those type

(29:30):
of downs. So that along with the homefield advantage in
Kaln debor Ha's been a damn awesome coach.

Speaker 4 (29:36):
Against ranked teams twelve and two.

Speaker 3 (29:38):
I know he hasn't played Georgia yet, but this is
kind of his welcome to the big league moment, his
chance to show the entire country that he's fit to
be the Alabama head coach. These guys can meet again
down the line. If this game was at Georgia, I
would be going with Georgia. But those are the two
reasons why I'm leaning towards Alabama in this game. But
I think it could shape up to be an all
time classic.

Speaker 5 (30:00):
This one actually has less to do with Georgia for me.
It has more to do with Alabama. I think, I'm,
I'm you know. You look at Georgia schedule. They have
a lot of land mines. And I was saying in
the preseason I picked them to go undefeated. I would
probably back off that now. I would say, though that
I look at the game at Texas, and I look
at the game at at Ole Miss as more dangerous

(30:24):
spots than here, especially being the first big game of
the year, especially being after a letdown spot two weeks
ago at Kentucky.

Speaker 2 (30:32):
I love that they came out and looked flat.

Speaker 5 (30:35):
And I know that, and I'll get to why I
love it in a second because of what I know
about them already. But you look at they came out flat,
and then they had a week off, and they had
two weeks for Kirby Smart to just tell this team
how much they suck, and tell this team how much
they're gonna lose to Alabama by and how they're gonna

(30:56):
embarrass themselves in its national title or busts and they're
gonna lose the four two game regular season winning streak.
I just love how this sets up, and I also
love that I think people are overreacting to Alabama beating
the heck out of Wisconsin, because I mean, we've been
talking about it since the preseason. None of us thought
Wisconsin was gonna be any good coming into the year.

(31:16):
I thought they were going to potentially struggle to make
a bowl game, and that was with Tyler Van Dyke.
And then you see Tyler Van Dyke get hurt in
the first quarter of that game. Wisconsin's playing with their
backup quarterback, and yet everybody on everybody then goes nuts
on Alabama and they win forty two to ten or
whatever the score was in that game. I think that

(31:36):
that win is a little overrated, and I think a
lot of the people that are betting on Alabama and
Beef didn't really even bring up the Georgia Kentucky game,
like I think a lot of people normally would when
they're betting on Bama. But I don't think people realize
that you look at the box score and Bama beat
USF forty two to sixteen. That game was fourteen to
thirteen with nine minutes left in the fourth quarter. To me,

(32:00):
that's just as concerning as a close game with Kentucky
on the road in an SEC road game. And I
know Kentucky's not that good, but I think that they're
a good bit better than USF.

Speaker 2 (32:10):
And that was a road game, not a home game.

Speaker 5 (32:12):
So and it's also just I just think George is
so well rounded with NFL guys at every position.

Speaker 2 (32:18):
I think the X factors.

Speaker 5 (32:19):
Trevorytn the guy who transferred from Florida, he missed the
Clemson game, missed kind of the second game as well.
He played the Kentucky game, got nineteen carries, didn't really
look that good, only had four yards per carry. But
I would expect him to kind of look like the
guy we thought he was transferring in. And not to mention,
we just talked about Clemson, how they've looked. They've scored
one hundred and twenty five points in the last two

(32:39):
games since they've played Georgia. That offense only scored three
against against Georgia. George's given up three, three and twelve
so far. So I love Georgia. This is my favorite
bet of the year so far. So you guys can
clown me when Fama wins by forty, but this is
my goot y, as Big Cat would call it. So

(33:00):
I'm all over all over George. I I locked it
in a minus one and a half. I'll probably better again.

Speaker 1 (33:06):
So I think you both have very compelling points to me,
and and the history of the Georgia Alabama games in the
last five years doesn't suggest this. But I am actually gonna
take the under at forty eight and a half. And
the reason why I do that is because I think
George is gonna come out motivated. I really do. I

(33:26):
think the X factor here is George's defense. How do
you deal with excuse me, how do you deal with Milroe?
How do you deal with the environment in Tuscaloosa. I
think they'll be suited for that. I don't think the
environment there is gonna is gonna really bug them much,
if at all. But I think the way they played

(33:48):
defensively and Alabama's gonna have to match that. And I
don't think George's offense is perfect either yet. Like we
saw in the fourth quart of the Kentucky game that
came alive, but how much of that was just pure desperation.
I don't know if we've seen the final product that
George's offense yet, So I'm gonna go the under forty
eight and a half. I think this is probably a
twenty one thirteen, twenty four, twenty type of game. I

(34:13):
think it's gonna be very close. I think it's gonna
come down to the wire, but I do think it's
gonna be a low scoring kind of game.

Speaker 2 (34:19):
You're not gonna bet a side on this one.

Speaker 1 (34:21):
I would lean Georgia if you if I had to bet,
I would I would bet Georgia.

Speaker 5 (34:26):
I would I'll go twenty seven, fourteen, twenty seven, seventeen,
twenty seven, fourteen, something like that.

Speaker 3 (34:34):
I think if you like Alabama, it's going over. I
think I feel like Georgia it's more like to go under.
I think if Alabama wins, it's gonna because it's going
to be because they get a couple explosive forty yard.

Speaker 4 (34:46):
Plus touchdowns or something to open it up.

Speaker 3 (34:48):
Because if it gets into a drag out, slugged sugfest
type game, I would lean Georgia.

Speaker 4 (34:53):
But I'm gonna go Alabama gain a few big plays
over the top.

Speaker 5 (34:56):
I guess you can make the argument if you're a
Bama backer that if you think Georgia's offense just stinks,
then you could argue for a low scoring game. I
will say Carson Beck's been a much better passer than
Jalen Millro this year. He's got over one hundred passing yards, more,
better QBR, better passer rating.

Speaker 2 (35:11):
So I do think some of the.

Speaker 5 (35:13):
Georgia offensive concerns, like that offense look pretty darn good
for the second half against Clemson, and obviously we've only
seen them three times, but I think that some of
the concerns are a little over blown.

Speaker 1 (35:28):
So we've done Georgia Alabama, and that is the big game.
It's where everybody's going to be focused on. But there
are a few other games throughout the schedule this week
that are just notable, and I kind of want to
do some quick hitters on each of these games that
they do affect the college football playoffs. And the first
one of those is Oklahoma State and Kansas State. Look, okay,

(35:51):
Oklahoma State losing it at home against Utah, fine, I
get that, I understand how that happened. But Kansas State
landon egg at EYU, and that game flipped in that
end of first half sequence where b Yu just scored
and took the lead rapidly against them and forced Avery
Johnson into some bad turnovers. If Kansas State at home,
a place where Chris Climban has been pretty darn good,

(36:14):
you have Oklahoma State in desperate spot. And if if
Kansas State, if I just looked at this game without
teams on the other side, I probably bet Oklahoma State
because this is how Gundhi operates. He loses the big
one at home and then pulls, you know, a trick
out of his butt in the next week. But because
of Kansas State, I'm gonna stay away from this. I

(36:36):
just wanna get your guys' thoughts on this game. Two
very desperate football teams in the Big twelve. I feel
like this is an ugly game. I actually like the
under in this one, a fifty five. I think both
teams morale is low.

Speaker 3 (36:49):
It could come out a little bit sluggish, especially early.

Speaker 4 (36:53):
You look at Oklahoma State.

Speaker 3 (36:54):
Whenever someone plays Utah the next week, they seem to
come out slow as well. In Kansas State, you know,
they can't really have much confidence after what happened to
BYU with BYU last week, So I think this one
actually is gonna go under. If he made me pick
a side, I probably would lean Kansas State at home
under climbing. They've been really good fourteen and six against
the spread after a loss. I'm in eighteen and eight

(37:15):
against the spread as a home favorite, and I feel
like Oklahoma State is so reliant on Ali Gordon getting going,
and he's not even averaging four yards per carry on
the season, So yeah, I think a little too much
tread on the tires. Like his NFL draft sack. I'm
not sure where that was projected at the beginning of
the year, but it can't be looking good right now
because he looks like he's an old, broken down running

(37:36):
back already at the right page of what twenty two,
twenty three years old?

Speaker 1 (37:42):
Those Yeah, great, he's cooked.

Speaker 2 (37:43):
He I think he's cooked. I think you're totally right there.
I would lean Kansas State, but this is a total
stay away. It's a loser leaves talent match for sure.

Speaker 5 (37:51):
Whoever's whoever loses this game, I don't want to hear
about for the rest of the year.

Speaker 1 (37:56):
Two more games, one of the acc Adjacentville and Notre Dame.
First real test for Louisville. Notre Dames looked pretty good
since beating Northern Illinois, but look who they played. I
know you're mister skeptical down there, Mark, so I'll well,
I'll start with you there. What do you expect out
of Louisville and Notre Dame a fifteen or sixteen matchup?

Speaker 2 (38:18):
I think this line's crazy.

Speaker 5 (38:19):
I think Louisville is a wild coaching advantage. They saw
it last year when they beat Notre Dame. I know
that that was at home, but I know Louisville hasn't
really played anybody. But I also don't think that they've
given anybody reason to like doubt them. That they stink either,
Like they handled business against two Cupcakes, and they beat
Georgia Tech handily at home, which they should. I mean,

(38:40):
they won, they covered, you know, YadA, YadA, YadA. Like
I think Louisville is the better team here. I think
they should be favored. I don't understand why Notre Dame
is favored. I won't bet it, I won't watch it,
but if I wasn't involved tangentially, I would bet Louisville beef.

Speaker 1 (38:58):
I'll get your take on this one. Illinois going to
the Happy Valley. It's a night game, it's wait out.
I believe is Penn State getting too many points here
after what we saw from Illinois Nebraska last Friday.

Speaker 3 (39:11):
Yeah, the line jumped off the page to me. I
might be falling into potentially the biggest trap of the
weekend here. But I really like Illinois. I watched, I
had to flight at three, I had the wake up
at three, so I didn't watch the whole game. I
went to bad halftime, but I was an impressive first
half from Illinois to go into Nebraska in that sellout
environment Friday night, staying alone game, that was an impressive game,

(39:33):
a game that you know showed a lot of balls
for Illinois go in there and winning.

Speaker 4 (39:36):
Shout out to Luke Altimyer. He's playing great.

Speaker 3 (39:38):
Ten touchdowns through the air so far, no turnovers, and
you know Bilima was always going to have that team
ready to go, especially on the defensive side. So I
think they can certainly go in there and match Penn
State early.

Speaker 4 (39:50):
I like them.

Speaker 3 (39:51):
I already bet them to cover the eighteen. But am
I falling into a big trap there?

Speaker 4 (39:55):
Like that? Line doesn't make sense to me at all.
So it's a bit of a head scratcher.

Speaker 3 (40:00):
It's either going to be the easiest cash of the
season or I guess what the hell were you thinking?

Speaker 4 (40:05):
Bet?

Speaker 1 (40:06):
I agree, Illinois plus eighteen stood up right. I think
Past State wins the game, but Bielim is going to
have them so sound defensively, And like you said, Luke
Altmeyer has turned into a pretty competent quarterback for Illinois.
And look, I know Lincoln and Happy Valley are two
completely different road environments. But to say you've already gone
on the road in a hostile environment a top twenty

(40:27):
five game, I think that means something. Again, not saying
they win, but I think eighteen is kind of an
egregious number. I think that numbers should probably be closer
to within two touchdowns.

Speaker 3 (40:37):
Yeah, I thought, more so along the lines of like
West Virginia game like nine and a half ten something
in that ballpark.

Speaker 1 (40:45):
Are there any other games on the schedule, boys that
stand out to you? Some of them have lost a
little bit of luster after a few weeks, But is
there anything that sticks out to you on the schedule
just in general?

Speaker 5 (40:59):
I guess I'll just we mentioned Boise State earlier as
like a group of five potential playoff team. I think
one of the fun games of the weekend at that
ten o'clock with Washington State at Boise. Washington State's also
one of those other teams that could potentially be in
the mix for that group of five spot. So this

(41:20):
is gonna be kind of a loser leaves town match
for that a little bit as well. And Boise, we've
talked about it before. They have maybe the best loss
in the entire country with a close road loss at Oregon.
So I actually like Boise a lot laying I think
it's a touchdown. It might be up to seven and
a half now, I think Boise lays it on him

(41:41):
on the blue turf there against Wazoo. I don't think
Wazuo is any anything special. You look last week at
what Wazoo did. They played San Jose State. They gave
up fifty two points, They gave up like nine yards
of carry.

Speaker 2 (41:54):
So Ashon Johnty step right up.

Speaker 5 (41:57):
Player, Like, I think he's gonna have like two hundred
yards and three touchdowns. So I don't know if you're
in if there's any college if you can bet on
Ashton john c props or if you can be in
Jersey fantasy football stuff like, I think Ashton Johnt probably
take the overs.

Speaker 2 (42:12):
I think he has a big, big night.

Speaker 1 (42:14):
Look, his numbers probably be insane. I saw last week
I almost went in New Jersey to bet some player
props San Jose State's receiver Nick Nash, who's a very
good receiver. His over under in receiving yards is like
one ten and a half, which so some of the
some of these numbers are insane. Look, they're insane for
a reason, but they're they're also insane thief. Is there

(42:37):
a game a little bit off the radar from the
top four that we talked about that stands out to you?

Speaker 4 (42:42):
Yeah?

Speaker 3 (42:42):
I got two real quick one sec one big twelve.
I really like UCF minus fourteen against Colorado. I think
they run at fifty five sixty times and right down
Colorado's start.

Speaker 4 (42:53):
I think that one could get out of hand and
get out of hand quickly.

Speaker 3 (42:56):
And I think like the my low key game of
the day other than Alabama Georgia that I'm looking forward
to the most is ar Kansas and Texas A and M.

Speaker 4 (43:04):
I got like a.

Speaker 1 (43:04):
Weird feeling game's always stupid.

Speaker 3 (43:07):
Yeah, I got a feeling it's gonna be a crazy
like maybe go like fifty two forty nine and in
like four overtime, something weird like that. But I really
like this Arkansas team. I had them plus three and
a half last week at Auburn and I had them
on the money line. They're a fun watch. I think
coming into the year, we all expected a three and
three win team, four win team out of them. I
think they're more so a seven to eight win team.

(43:29):
And then they're a fun exciting watch. You could look
at them. They could be undefeated right now if they
didn't blow that game at Oklahoma State. So I think
that they're a live dog in that matchup. But I'm
gonna bet the over in that game too. I just
have a field in my bones and that one that
we're gonna get some weird points down in Jerry World.

Speaker 4 (43:44):
A fun game on Saturday afternoon.

Speaker 1 (43:46):
That game is always off its rocker. That game always,
for whatever reason, turns into just like the most ridiculous
up and down track meat of some sort. So yeah,
I probably bet the over in that game. More than anything.

Speaker 5 (44:00):
I can't believe Bobby Patrino is saving Sam Pittman's John. Yeah,
it's got I know that you usually talk about hot seats.
That's gotta be one big seat for Sam Pittman. So
I don't know he's really easing that that easy.

Speaker 2 (44:15):
That what's the lazy boy?

Speaker 5 (44:17):
Bobby Patrina is putting the taken off the heat recliner.

Speaker 2 (44:21):
That was a bad, bad job by me. Couldn't put that.

Speaker 1 (44:24):
I'll give you guys two money in the crumbs to
finish this off, because I gave you Navy and I
gave you Western Kentucky last week. At the end of
the show. It's too that sticks out to me. Western
Kentucky again, they're thirteen point dog at Boston College. I
think they might even be live on the money line.
And the reason why because Boston College the last two

(44:45):
weeks is giving up over two hundred and forty passing
yards to Missouri and Michigan State. Obviously, they're they're Power
five Conference through Power four Conference teams. But what woul
does Western Kentucky love to do. Throw the ball right offense.
They just throw the ball, They move the rock, they
throw it downfield, and that's how they win a majority

(45:06):
of their games. So I think that's a vulnerability in
Boston College's defense that Western Kentucky can exploit. I think
BC they're gonna have to try and drive the ball
with the run through castianos, and they're slew of running backs.
Don't know if that's gonna work, though. I think Western
Kentucky can score with BC. I think the plus thirteen

(45:27):
is very much in play, and I would probably go
out on the limit and sprinkle a little bit on
the money line. The other one Eastern Michigan minus fifteen
at Kent State. Eastern Michigan's four and zero against the spread.
Kent State arguably the worst team in the FBS, and

(45:48):
they're starting quarterback out for the season. They couldn't move
ball in the first place, so why are they gonna
move the ball now? Eastern Michigan minus fifteen probably take
them up to like twenty against Kent State. EMU has
been a pretty tough team early on that they stuck
within three touchdowns against Washington, covered that spread and went

(46:08):
on the road and not won the road, but ended
up playing a really tough game against Jacksonville State, who
I think we're still trying to figure out what they
are a's five level. But ken State has not covered
the spread whatsoever this year, and they've been a dog
of forty eight points twice.

Speaker 3 (46:26):
They couldn't They covered that first half damn spread against
Penn State last week before God damn it.

Speaker 5 (46:34):
I'll throw one out. I think it's kind of a
bounce back spot. I think Nebraska lays it on Purdue Perdue.

Speaker 2 (46:42):
We saw it against Notre Dame.

Speaker 5 (46:44):
Notre Dame, who I obviously don't think is very good,
sixty six seven against Purdue, and I know it was
an obvious get right spot for them, But it's an
obvious get right spot for Nebraska. And their offense looked
pretty good obviously, even in that loss against Illinois. So
I think Ryola comes up and puts it on produced defense.
So Cornhusker's big is beef on that as well.

Speaker 4 (47:06):
I'm smoking my coach SIGs again this week with my.

Speaker 2 (47:10):
Throwing out there.

Speaker 5 (47:11):
Indiana might be one of my favorite pets of the weekend. Yeah,
I love Indiana against Maryland. There's such a It's so
funny because he's so new to the Big Ten. There's
such a massive coaching advantage there between coach Siggs and
that bum Mike Loxley at Maryland feels like he's been
there for fifty years.

Speaker 2 (47:28):
One I'll ask you guys, because you guys, I know
Tanzy and Beef.

Speaker 5 (47:32):
You guys are probably even more well versed on these
types of teams than I am. But one that stood
out to me, I kind of like USF plus. It
was at six and a halfcue five and a half. Now,
I kind of like USF plus the points there against Tulane.
I think they're live in the game. That might even
be worth a sprinkle on the money line. You look
at the teams and it's like, we're downgrading USF because

(47:52):
they lost to Bama in Miami, Like that seems a
little for.

Speaker 1 (47:56):
Three quarters, they hung with both of those teams.

Speaker 2 (47:58):
Yeah.

Speaker 5 (47:59):
Yeah, And then you look at k State or you
look at Tulane and they're getting a lot of credit
for hanging with a k State team that just lost
thirty eight to nine to BYU, And they're getting a
lot of credit for losing by fifteen and failing to
cover against an Oklahoma team that I think stinks. So
I just think you look at the resume. That's not
always the best way to bet these games. But I

(48:21):
think that you could argue this should be like at
least to pick them.

Speaker 1 (48:23):
I think you can argue too that Byron Brown's the
best player on the field. Yes, the USF quarterback. Now,
this is the reason why I haven't bet it yet,
and I think he's going to be okay. But he
did leave the Miami game with a leg injury. I'm
not sure if it was just cramping or not, but
everything seems to be okay with him. That's why I
didn't bet it right away because that line stuck out
to me immediately as well. Yeah, I think some I

(48:45):
think USF is one of the libra dogs on the
slate this week.

Speaker 2 (48:49):
Yeah, I don't love a lot of dogs.

Speaker 5 (48:50):
Big favorite week for me, So that's USF and Arkansas
really are the only two dogs that I have my
eye on.

Speaker 1 (48:56):
And just to note, the spread on U and LV
is now up to two points, so take take that
as you will, but to put a bow on everything, you.

Speaker 5 (49:11):
Will be.

Speaker 2 (49:14):
Sorry.

Speaker 5 (49:14):
Sorry, I had two big favorites. I wanted to ask
you guys, I'm only gonna bet one of them. I'm
gonna take one of them off my card. I like USC.
It's like fifteen and a half. Now both of the
lines that bet I went up. I liked it at
fourteen more, but it's at fifteen and a f sixteen.
I think they it's kind of a similar thing to Nebraska.
I think they respond from last week and put it

(49:34):
on a wisconsintine that's clearly reeling that's traveling the country.
Or do I go with Oregon, which is now I
think minus twenty five and a half at a UCLA
team that hung a little tougher than I expected against LSU.

Speaker 2 (49:49):
But I still think overall sticks.

Speaker 1 (49:52):
I think Oregon Oregan would be my better than two.

Speaker 2 (49:54):
Yeah, okay, I.

Speaker 4 (49:56):
Was talking with about that earlier.

Speaker 3 (49:58):
If you're chasing a chasing loss on Saturday night, bet
Oregon first half spread minus fourteen and a half, fall
asleep by about twelve thirty, and wake up feeling right
for Sunday morning.

Speaker 1 (50:08):
All right, that's fair? Yeah, I think that would be.
I think it's a fair outcome. I don't think that
game is close. That's a fall asleep special. Well that
will do everything for Week five. Here on our Fox
Sports The Gambler college football betting preview for Mark Henry
Junior and Ryan beef Coyle. I am Joe Tansey, best

(50:30):
of luck on all your bets, and we'll be back
here with some reaction to Georgia and Bamma next week,
as well as the first October slate to break down.
It's already here, it's already around the corner. Conference play
is heating up. Let's win some bets here in college football,
and we'll talk to you next week.