October 10, 2024 • 48 mins
The Gambler's "Big Brains" - Joe Tansey, Ryan "BEEF" Coyle", and Mark Henry Jr. - preview Week 7's #CollegeFootball action, highlighted by #OhioSt vs #Oregon, #PennSt vs #USC, and more big games!
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:17):
One one and welcome on into our Week seven college
football preview. If you're watching this on video, the two
other big brains, Ryan Coyle and Mark Henry Jr. Are
in full on depressed mode because we're recording this right
after NLTS Game four. I am Joe Tansey. I am
not the depressed one because my team decided to not
(00:39):
even make an effort in the wild card round. But
we're here to talk college football, the biggest weekend of
college football yet, and I'm sure these two very chipper
gentlemen with me will be able to give you everything
you need in terms of bets for Ohio State, Oregon,
Penn State, usc Al miss LSU River Shootout. It's still
(01:01):
the shootout, it's not the Red River rivalry between Texas
and Oklahoma. The best Saturday yet in college football. But
before we get to that, guys, the most chaotic Saturday
of college football we had last week. What do you
make of all the upsets and how does it affect
everything with the college football playoffs? If it does at all, I.
Speaker 2 (01:25):
Think the biggest thing is and I think we've touched
on it in a few times so far this season,
and I know Kirby talked about it this offseason. Mostly
he was saying, basically, with the transfer portal and nil
and everything that we've discussed over and over again, the
depth and the quality of rosters has changed. Like the
ceiling of Georgia, the ceiling of an Alabama, the ceiling
(01:48):
of Ohio State and so on, isn't as great as
it was five ten years ago because teams aren't just
stacking four and five star guys anymore. If those guys
aren't playing it in year one to learn year two,
those guys are out the door, go to get money
paid somewhere else and going to get a medium playing time.
The floors of a school like a Vanderbilt have raised.
(02:10):
And they're not saying that Vanderbilt now will be competing
for SEC toitles or anything, but maybe they're competing for
consistent balligibility instead of one to two wins a season.
I mean, they showed that on Saturday, like it wasn't
like it was a fluke, like a thirteen to ten
where Alabama threw seven picks, got two field goal blocks
and Vanderbilt wins on a walk off sixty five yard
(02:30):
or no. Vanderbilt had their way. They put up forty
plus points on Alabama and AJ mccerron I heard him
say it this week. Vanderbilt kept it simple. They were
running the same play, they ran it to the right,
they ran it to the left, and they whooped Alabama
up front at the line of scrimmage. And you know,
in the past that stuff doesn't happen because you have
just guy after guy after guy. Now, if your top
(02:51):
three year, top four arm producing, you don't have the
next guy to turn two. So that's one of the
biggest things. And I said it on Monday, it was like,
just buckle up because we're still only halfway through the
regular season. You're gonna have a lot more of these
weekends to comment. You know, the playoff picture is just
getting wilder and wilder, Like there's a path now where Texas, Tech,
Syracuse and Indiana could be in the college football playoff
(03:14):
and that just makes it crazier and crazier by the week.
Speaker 1 (03:17):
So here here's the question I'll posed to you, Mark,
was there really chaos went in terms of the college
football playoff? Because you look at Missouri, you completely underperformed
in the first place this season. You have a team
in Alabama who has win over Georgia in the bank.
Tennessee still has to play Georgia and Alabama. If they
(03:39):
win one of those games, we're essentially putting them in.
How do you kind of look at the SEC and
the playoff picture right now and does it change much,
if at all, because of where those two teams specifically
this is definitely on way on the outside, but how
Bama and Tennessee are right now?
Speaker 3 (04:01):
I mean, yeah, it takes away your margin for kind
of mess up your margin for error here, for my
brain is not firing on all cylinders, I'll be quite honest,
but I couldn't find that term, but I would say that, yeah,
Alabama Tennessee. Now I don't know if it becomes an
(04:23):
elimination game because that's definitely not the case. Either team
could get in with two losses, but the team that
loses that game is not going to be in a
great spot.
Speaker 4 (04:33):
And we'll get to that later.
Speaker 3 (04:34):
I have a little bit of a take about this
week in college football compared to some upcoming weeks that
I think might be a hot take out there.
Speaker 4 (04:41):
But yeah, I.
Speaker 3 (04:43):
Think that you look at those teams and it eliminates
their margin for error, Does it get them out of
the college football race. No, but you look at a
team like Ole Miss and if they're able to get
at the job done this week, their schedule shapes up
a lot more favorably with kind of how their earlier
see and mess up when against Kentucky, then and Alabamas
could or then a Tennessee could.
Speaker 1 (05:06):
So when we look at the rest of the picture here,
because so many loss has happened, there are teams that
have drugged themselves back into contention. We're talking about Clemson,
talking about Notre Dame, that maybe a second team from
the Big twelve, depending on how those things shake out.
But we're looking at the bottom half of this, so
(05:28):
the bottom third really maybe the ten to twelve area
or nine to eleven area, because we're assuming twelve is
the G five team. How does this kind of I guess,
change the motivations for a Clemson, for a Notre Dame,
for you know, maybe a k state of sorts where
now all of a sudden, you you're one loss in
(05:50):
the sec away from really being in this. In this
conversation for good, you.
Speaker 3 (05:55):
Keep saying Notre Dame, you mean Army, right, Army. When
Army goes twelve.
Speaker 1 (06:00):
To know, well, there'll be the G five team.
Speaker 4 (06:03):
Well, hey, they might be the one seed.
Speaker 3 (06:05):
They beat Notre Dame twelve and no, you beat Navy
and Army Navy.
Speaker 4 (06:09):
I don't know.
Speaker 3 (06:10):
It is funny, but Elliott, I'm sure Beef Solid put
out the his college football playoff prediction. He actually had
Boise State as the four seed, and he said that
the Big twelve. I think it was Iowa State. He
ranked Iowa State is like the seven or eight. So
I don't even know how that works. I thought that
(06:31):
the four, Uh mean the conference teams were guaranteed?
Speaker 4 (06:35):
Was he just rolling there?
Speaker 1 (06:37):
Yeah?
Speaker 2 (06:37):
It is the it is the four and large team
or the four champions, the G five, the G five
can get it. It's it's if Boise's like if just
say Boise's nine and Iowa State wins a Big twelve
at ten, boys, that would go they're guarantee. Yeah, I
mean the they're guaranteed a spot. But it's not Kencelana
in fact that it's just acc s see Big ten,
(07:00):
Big twelve.
Speaker 3 (07:01):
That would be awesome if Boise State could be the
fourth seed and get a buy and go make a
Big twelve team. I think the Big twelve championship. The
Big twelve champion could have two or three losses and
we'll get to I think State this week, but yeah,
I don't there's a good chance that they're runked pretty low.
Speaker 1 (07:19):
So we have three conferences that we've mentioned. We haven't
mentioned the Big Ten yet, and I think in terms
of significant shifts in the playoff, I think the Big
Ten went through the most drastic one in Week six
because Michigan and USC both now have two losses, So
you have a clear top three in Ohio State, Oregon,
(07:39):
and Penn State, and then Michigan and USC are really
fighting for their lives here and Michigan schedule isn't very
good and USC could very well lose to Penn State
at home this weekend be completely out of the playoff picture, Beef.
I mean, what do you make of the Big Ten now?
It feels like we just have three teams and no
(07:59):
matter what happens this weekend with Ohio State and Oregon,
it feels like those teams are getting in.
Speaker 2 (08:06):
Yeah. USC is starting to revert to what I thought
about them at preseason, where it was like they're just
not ready to play in the Big Ten. Roster wise,
and I thought once they got into big ten play. Hell,
I even thought the first game against LSU had kind
of exposed that, But that was still my main takeaway
coming out of that LSU game with USC. It was like,
all right, sure they tackled, but now you're seeing four
(08:27):
or five weeks into the season, the willingness to tackle decreases,
Like once you get those those bumps and bruises, do
you really want to level that shoulder in and make
that key play? So you know, USC was up there
Washington or excuse me, Michigan last week, as we talked
about with the Washington game. Going into that game, Michigan
was minus sixteen hundred to miss the playoff, plus eight
hundred to make it, and they were number ten in
(08:48):
the country. Really goes to show you kind of what
Vegas thought about their prospects. So now you're kind of
just down to Ohio State, Oregon and Penn State. But
if Penn State goes to USC shoots himself in the
foot this weekend, Penn State, then suddenly that becomes must
win against Ohio State coming up Oregon. Ohio State you
see in that scenario as well. But I think I
(09:11):
think we're going to see two teams out of the
Big Ten, potentially three, but a lot of these guys
still got to play each other. So that's kind of
the main question in that regard.
Speaker 1 (09:21):
So let's get right into it. The game of the week,
potentially the game of the season. Alabama Georgia obviously has
something to say about that in terms of how it
played out, but at least, going in you have number
two versus number three Ohio State at Oregon. I'll put
this stat out there. Now. Look, there's a little asterisk
because Ohio State hasn't traveled yet, Penn State hasn't traveled yet,
(09:42):
and I don't believe Oregon has traveled this either. But
teams that have traveled two plus time zones, whether it
be West or East in the Big Ten are one
and seven straight up so far. That includes Michigan at
Washington last week, USC at Minnesota Ucla, although not as
much in the spotlight the same at Penn State last week.
(10:05):
That's concerning trend.
Speaker 4 (10:06):
Now.
Speaker 1 (10:07):
I think some of that also has to do with
who the teams that suffered those losses are, but it
at least is notable that travel in the Big Ten
has affected a lot of teams so far. Now I
think I don't think that will apply here. I think,
at least in my opinion, the better defense is what's
going to apply here in Ohio State. But when you
(10:30):
look at this game, I'll start with you, mark, Ohio
State and Oregon, what do you think is the difference
maker in this game.
Speaker 3 (10:38):
I don't think Dylan Gabriel is good enough to beat
Ohio State. And I know that that sounds funny because
I don't know if Will Howard is an incredible quarterback.
Speaker 4 (10:49):
They probably I.
Speaker 3 (10:50):
Don't know if I would take Will Howard over Gabriel,
but don't. I don't think they're on a different level
than each other. I think they're on a similar tier
of college quarterback. Half a guy who I do another
podcast with. He's an Oklahoma fan. He's kind of been
on the Dylan Gabriel is a bit of a screen
merchant ever since he was playing at Oklahoma. So I
(11:11):
feel like I didn't watch him as closely at Oklahoma
as I'm watching him at Oregon.
Speaker 4 (11:15):
And now that you watch him, there really is a lot.
Speaker 3 (11:19):
To be desired when it comes to taking shots down
the field, and it comes to kind of extending plays, and.
Speaker 4 (11:26):
It really does feel like he's.
Speaker 3 (11:28):
A bit of a system guy and he's kind of
just throwing in the flat, throwing checking down all the time.
And I get that his is yardage totals to get
pretty crazy. I think he's been pretty disappointing so far
this year. And I know that the stats would tell
you otherwise, but I'm starting to think he's a bit
of a college quarterback stat merchant. That's not the only
(11:50):
reason I'm taking Ohio State. You look at a lot
of the stats, and I like Dan Lanning. Dan Lanning
is a really good coach. I feel like Dan Lanning
has been crowned a bit as I don't know about
the next up or the next guy, or you know,
the next premier coach in college football.
Speaker 4 (12:09):
What's the last big game.
Speaker 3 (12:11):
Dan Lanning is won at Oregon. I'm pose of that
to both of you.
Speaker 4 (12:20):
You go look at the schedule last year.
Speaker 3 (12:23):
What I looked at didn't have a team that finished
ranked on it in terms of their wins. In twenty
twenty two, they beat a UCLA team that was ranked
nine at one point at home. They didn't finish the
year ranked. They had four losses. They also beat a
Utah team that was ranked ten. They also finished that
year with four losses. That was in a twenty twenty
(12:43):
two season that Oregon went ten to three. So I
feel like Dan Lanning got a lot of credit for
maybe beating a pretty bad schedule last year and losing
the two games that mattered against Kalen Debor and Michael Pennix.
And now we're turning around this year and we're expecting
him to win this big gaming.
Speaker 4 (13:02):
At Ohio State.
Speaker 3 (13:04):
I don't know what big game he's won to prove
to me that I should be backing Oregon in this spot.
Speaker 2 (13:13):
Yeah, when I look at when I look at this matchup,
I'm siding with you there. Mark with Gabriel has been disappointing,
I think to extent where it's like he needs everything
working with him to make it work. And last week
he had I mean lucky he was playing Michigan State.
He had two brutal turnovers in the red zone where
(13:35):
he was trying to make Yeah, he was trying to
make throws that he just doesn't have the talent and
the arm strength to make. And you do that against
a team like Ohio State that comes back to bite you.
At the same time, when I look at Ohio State, though,
I mean Iowa last week, Okay, I was Iowa, though
I'll probably still go eight and four, nine to three.
But outside of that, Michigan State, Marshall, Western, Michigan acron,
(13:57):
have we really seen this Iowa State team or excuse me,
the Ohio State team tested yet now they have to
go to Eugene, where I feel like Oregon doesn't get
hyped up as a good enough crowd nationally just because
you know, most of those games are are night games
out there at ten thirty and whatnot. But that is
from a testament of analysts have gone across the country
(14:18):
to these games. They say, that's a top five, the
top ten atmosphere in college football. So you're not walking
into an easy atmosphere at all. And this is by
far the toughest game you played. You know, Oregon's gonna
be juiced up. But for Oregon or for Ohio State
to be a it's now a three point favorite, I
believe I think it opened up at four. For them
to be that big of a favorite on the road,
I think just goes to show you how much they
(14:40):
believe in the buck guys so I'm signing with the
Buckeyes here. I do think Will Howard too has a
lot more to work with at his disposal than Dylan
Gabriel as well, and the defense is more legit. I
think the defense gives the Oregon offensive line troubles, which
has had a lot of trouble early in the season.
So I'm gonna side with the Ohio State here, but
definitely a first major test for Ohio State. I think
(15:03):
Oregon's had a cup tough couple more games than Ohio
State has to start the year.
Speaker 1 (15:09):
Yeah, okay, I'll keep it simple. Defense travels plain and simple.
Like you're right about Dylan Gabriel. You have a great
point about about Dan Lanning. But I think when it
comes down to this matchup in this season, Ohio State's
defense we have a big enough sample size now where
it's been consistently not just good, but great, like top
(15:31):
in the country in a lot of categories. It's not
just one thing they're good at. They're good at everything,
and I think we forgot a little bit because everything
crashed down so bad offensively at the end of last season,
especially in the bowl game. All their defensive studs came
back you know you still have two we will allow
(15:52):
you still have a loaded front. Seven Caleb Downs gets
added to that group. I think in terms of just
match up alone, I mean, look, Ohio State's got all
the studs on defense that can make Dylan Gabriel's life hell.
And if you mentioned those two red zone interceptions against
(16:14):
Michigan State, if you're making those mistakes against Michigan State,
one or two are probably prone to come about against
Ohio State. And that's concerning for me when I look
across the board here at what the strengths and weaknesses
are of both teams. Look, I'm not saying Will Howard
is an elite, elite quarterback. I don't think you can
(16:39):
say that yet. But the pieces he has around them
with Judkins and Henderson in the rush game, at Jeremiah
Smith is coming into his own at receiver. And oh,
by the way, we've talked so much about Jeremiah Smith
and coming in a mega Agbuka is still there, one
of the longest tenured receivers in the country. So I
think you have the pieces around him at Ohio State
(17:03):
that sets him up far more for success than Dylan
Gabriel does at Oregon and I also think that the
defense is just playing out of its mind right now,
where it's so hard for me, even with the home
field advantage that Oregon hash to even put trust into
the Oregon Ducks because Ohio State, I mean, everything across
(17:24):
the board defensively has been stellar. So let's move on you.
Speaker 3 (17:35):
You mentioned the guys there with Tuamalu and Destroyer and
Williams and Burke and and downs on defense. I just
don't know if Oregon has kind of the NFL talent
at all that that Ohio State has. And you know
I fell for this with Georgia Alabama, and you know
I underrated the home field advantage and I've been wrong
on everything this year, so probably fade what I'm saying.
Speaker 4 (17:58):
But you look at Ohio State.
Speaker 3 (18:00):
You mentioned the defense, and I just wanted to throw
this in there. Part of how good the defense is
outside of all the NFL names I just mentioned the
guys that are going to get taken in round one round.
Speaker 4 (18:10):
Two, is that Chip Kelly has the running game.
Speaker 3 (18:14):
And you know it's not just Chip Kelly, it's also
having the studs like quin Shawn Judkins and Trevion Henderson
and a quarterback who can run like Will Howard, but
that's complimentary football. And they're keeping the ball on the ground,
keeping the defense off the field so that they're fresh
when they get back on the field. Chip Kelly's not
running his crazy tempo offense all the time necessarily, so
(18:35):
he's an incredible kind of designer when it comes to
running the football, I think when it comes to these
big games, but they're going to be able to design
up with Judkins and Henderson, maybe even out of the
same backfield.
Speaker 4 (18:45):
Sometimes it's going to be crazy.
Speaker 1 (18:48):
Yeah, And I think that leaves We haven't talked much
about them because haven't played many big games, but I
mean they a man hitdled Iowa last week. You know,
even watching just a quarter of that game, they were
all over them and pouncing on them. And look if
the numbers the three right now, I'll gladly take that.
I think that's a pretty easy number for me to
to cut to latch in on and hell, I'd probably
(19:10):
take them as much as high as a touchdown. Like,
I'm not confident in how their defense UH is playing,
And to me, that's the X factor, you know, forget
the quarterback play, forget all the all the Studs on offense.
If that defense is playing it the way it is,
it's gonna be hard for anybody to stop Ohio State
this season.
Speaker 4 (19:28):
Yeah, I'm as well put.
Speaker 1 (19:30):
And simple's who wanted. The other matchup in the Big
Ten no longer a top twenty five matchup because USC
fell flat at Minnesota last week, which I think some
people saw coming. But it's still a pretty surprising result.
And now you have Penn Stake going out to USC
is a pretty overwhelming favorite. Uh. James Franklin is doing
(19:52):
his best, I guess, to try and not talk about
the game and complain about the travel. Maybe that holds
in credence because of how the record is right now.
But cool, you're flying out a Harrisburg and State instead
of State College. Whoop do you do? I think you
your college athletes can can handle that quite well because
the plane I assume is gonna be very cushy and
(20:15):
nice that they're gonna fly on with recliented seats and everything.
They're five point favorite against USC. Everything we've seen from
both of these teams doesn't give you a single reason
to bet on USC in this game. I mean, let's
be honest, Penn State's just a machine in these types
of games. Could it be better, sure, but they're they're not.
(20:38):
You take the UCLA game for example last week. They
didn't blow them out of the water in the first half,
but they made all the plays defensively. Eventually the offense
got going and they ended up when in big I
think it was something like twenty seven eleven or something
like that, but UCLA scored a very late touchdown to
to make it remotely I guess respectable. So I mean
(20:59):
this to me is very straightforward. If you're giving me
James Franklin in this situation, not against top ten team anymore.
Very important to note, I think it's a pretty easy
bet to make before. Do you think on Penn State USC.
Speaker 2 (21:13):
Yeah, I'll go right to the camera there with some
beef up front. I think that's a major difference in
this game. I think that's a major difference of why
USC is gonna need a couple of years to rekind
of make this roster and make it into a bully squad,
not a track squad. We know track squads aren't gonna
fly in the Big Ten. You look at Penn State
(21:35):
on both sides of the ball line of scrimmage, they're
going to be able to manhandle. I think this USC team,
and I think last week, you know, I'm pretty sure
we all were on Penn State last week with the
minus twenty seven against UCLA, thinking that they would just
roll in that one, probably keeping it pretty vanilla in
that game. I think this is a game against USC
on the road where you kind of really fully unveil
(21:57):
the playbook. Nick Singleton didn't even play last week. I
think they just kind of wanted to get through that
game and be fully focused going into this one. Because
USC still a much more talented team. We've also seen
Millard Moss regress I think since that first LSU game
kind of come back to this is why you were
the guy that was sitting on the bench for three
four years and you got your chance to I think
(22:18):
USC will be fine eight and four something like that.
But I really like Penn State in this game. You
talked about it a bunch before, especially going into that
West Virginia game, that James Franklin kind of thrives in
these spots. Not a top ten team, a favorite of
less than you know, less than a touchdown. This is
where a spot that he should he should dominate. So
(22:39):
I like Penn State to win this one, and I
think that they went pretty comfortably in a statement game,
Like I feel like Penn State still hasn't gotten that
national type buzz. I feel like Tennessee was a team
that was getting so much buzz. Penn State has been
doing pretty much the same damn thing, and they played
some better teams as well. So Penn Sate, I think,
can really put themselves in the driver's seat this week
for there they're gonna be as long as they hang
(23:00):
on and win this game, they're going to be at
least number three in the country because you got to
figure the loser of that Oregon versus Highest State game
and is drop and below them. Yeah.
Speaker 1 (23:08):
Absolutely, And they're very quiet number four. It's very difficult
to say that sometimes, but Penn State is a very
quiet number four. They're just going about their business right now,
beating the teams they should beat. With the West Virginia game,
a lot of people thought that would have been a
slip up spot. It wasn't, like the only the toughest
test they've gotten with some bowling green in week two, right,
(23:29):
and that was just more of a shootout than anything.
So I think in this game is where quote Nikki
the new offensive coordinator ends up being the difference maker.
Maybe there's a more creative offense. Jilly is allowed to
throw the ball deeper, you get a few of those
twenty thirty yard pass plays that end up making the
(23:51):
difference on top of just grinding it out. And look,
I said defense travels. I think that's true with Penn
State as well. Their defense is phenomenal, and I think
we'll see the same exact thing in terms of defensive
domination out of Penn State that we will with Ohio State.
Speaker 4 (24:09):
Yeah, I'm on Penn State as well.
Speaker 3 (24:11):
I mean, you saw Michigan and obviously Minnesota punch USC
in the mouth, and I think I think Penn State
is just a much.
Speaker 4 (24:21):
Better version of both of those teams.
Speaker 3 (24:23):
So I think Penn State is going to do the
exact same thing, except to it by a lot more.
Speaker 1 (24:26):
Points, with far better running backs too. Exactly to a
running back tandem that I think is I think you
can make an argument's the most underrated in all of
college football.
Speaker 4 (24:39):
Probably the second best.
Speaker 3 (24:41):
Well, honestly, I'll think I'll think Johnathy and Beef as
my as a running back to over maybe anybody in
the country, but or maybe I'll say Johnty and Tansy,
but you don't want to.
Speaker 4 (24:56):
We're giving it.
Speaker 3 (24:57):
We're giving it to ash and every time. Anyway, we're
just saying exactly to make it a combo. But I mean,
after Judkins and Trevion, I don't think anybody has a
second back like k Tron Allen.
Speaker 1 (25:09):
Yeah, it really is fascinating to see, Uh, Texas and
Oklahoma the Red River rivalry. It's the Red River Shootout, Like,
let's be honest, we can't call it that technically, but
that's one of the Red River Shootout Texas and Oklahoma.
Oklahoma's dominated this rivalry. You if you look at the
trajectory of these teams right in these programs, you don't
(25:33):
exactly think Oklahoma's been the dominant side in Red River,
but they have.
Speaker 4 (25:39):
So.
Speaker 1 (25:39):
Now you look at a team in Oklahoma freshman quarterback,
nothing seems to be going right. They barely beat Auburn
two weeks ago. Texas, by all accounts, is going back
to quin yours, their fourteen point favorite. Everything is going
in their favor. If this means Texas is cruising.
Speaker 2 (25:57):
Right, Yeah, the my main kind of take on this one,
and you know, I think once I'm settled on it,
Texas I'm gonna have winning the game. I'm not sure
what I'm gonna take with the spread yet. The biggest
thing for me in this matchup is as looking at
last year's box score, because I remember I had Oklahoma
spread in that one. I want to say it was
(26:18):
like a seven point spread. They wound up winning that
game outright, obviously doing Gabriel rush for a little over
one hundred yards in that game. And what does Michael
Hawkins do. Well, he's not a great thrower of the
foot ball right now, but he is able to use
his legs. So if they're able to kind of scheme
up some similar stuff or just get Hawkins moving out
of the pocket gave Gabriel gave Texas a lot of
(26:39):
fits last year with his legs, so if Oklahoma is
able to do that, they could post some problems. And
quin you weres coming off an injury, coming off two
weeks of no gameplay and then plus a bye week,
so he come out a little rusty as well. Maybe
the angle in this game is look at in Oklahoma
plus plus the points in the first quarter plus the
points in the half, maybe get them Marley and Texas
(27:02):
kind of takes over in the second half. Definitely think
Texas is a much better team. I'm a much bigger
fan of them going forward over the long haul. We
know how I'm not a fan of this Oklahoma squad,
but that's just something that's been in the back of
my mind a little bit. Hawkins potentially causing some problem
with his legs and maybe making things a little bit
interesting with yours coming off some rust.
Speaker 1 (27:21):
I'm taking the over in this game. Look, the Red
River is just a It's a knockout, drag out brawl,
that's really It always seems to be chaotic. There always
seems to be points in this game. I think Texas
does win. But I think you're right, Beef. I think
that you also the angle to look into in this
one is a potentially Texas liveline, maybe somewhere around like
(27:45):
the second quarter, depending on does Quinn yours look a
little rusty after a few weeks on the shelf, Ken
Oklahoma with with Hawkins, with an athletic quarterback, get the
ball downfield, maybe put points on the board first. I
think it's a way to look at it. Texas does
win this game, but I'd feel more confident they're being
there being points. I think Oklahoma could be feisty. I
(28:07):
don't think they can win, maybe cover, but I think
it's a it's a rivalry game. I think they will
be at least a little bit feisty in this month.
Speaker 2 (28:17):
Nine of the last eleven meetings decided by eight or fewer.
It's always a chaotic game, and I feel like most
of the time comes down to the wire. But I
think this is the first time, at least in recent memory,
that you can point to the rosters and see a
significant gap between the talent Texas being, you know, a
(28:37):
much better squad than Oklahoma.
Speaker 3 (28:39):
I'm not touching this one from a gambling standpoint, but
part of why I think this week has kind of
become a little bit overrated, to be honest, is because
USC and Oklahoma didn't.
Speaker 4 (28:50):
Live up to their end of the bargain of making
this week.
Speaker 3 (28:53):
That's cool, and maybe I'm wrong, Maybe I'm Maybe both
underdogs went out right, or one of those guys went
out right, and it makes me feel it makes me
look stuper for saying that, but having said that, it
makes me have to think at this point where if
Lincoln Riley looks in the mirror and the Oklahoma Sooner fans,
who probably hate Lincoln Riley's guts more than anybody on
(29:15):
the planet, look in the mirror, they wouldn't both You
don't think both of them would turn back the clock
and maybe make a different decision a couple of years ago.
I think both sides. Maybe Oklahoma forks over a little
bit more money and Lincoln Riley stays instead of going.
I think you're probably better off on both sides.
Speaker 1 (29:36):
Yeah, it really is fascinating to see how those two
programs kind of really haven't gotten to where they've wanted
to be, right, So it's yeah, it is a I
don't know if you can go outside indoors because neither
of them have been excellent, But yeah, it's it's definitely
it's good.
Speaker 4 (29:54):
It's the same with Brian Kelly.
Speaker 3 (29:55):
At the same time, like Notre Dame an LSU is
kind of the same situation, Like you're kind of looking
at slife indoors. Both jobs that switched high, they switched
around the same time.
Speaker 1 (30:05):
And what a way to slide into the last big
game of the week. Ole Miss and LSU I think
another game that's lost. It's lost a little bit because
of ole Miss has lost to Kentucky. Look, ole Miss
has has gotten back up to number nine, but without
all of the losses that happened last week, you know
(30:25):
they might not be right because Missouri, Michigan, and USC
were all ahead of them going into week six. So
to me, that's a little fascinating that Ole Miss is
number nine and it feels like, I want to say
it's a cheap number nine, but it almost feels that way,
right because they got punched in the face by Kentucky.
(30:45):
They went back and and beat South Carolina. But we're
we're I think we're still trying to figure out here
what the hell Kentucky and South Carolina are. I think
Kentucky is a tough team, but you have that loss
to South Carolin on it and it just completely baffles you. Right,
So it's one of those that that messes with your head. LSU.
(31:07):
You know, not really a lot to write home about. Either.
You have the loss to USC, and then you know
they've they've been scoring points. I think that's the positive.
They scored thirty four or more in every game they
held South Alabama ten. They held UCLA to seventeen in
their last two games. How much credence you put in
(31:29):
those results, I don't really know, because they're they're weaker
opponents almost can certainly move the ball. You've talked me
through this one. How does how does Ole miss LSU
end up playing out?
Speaker 2 (31:41):
I locked in the over for this one at the
beginning of the week. It was the It's the only
college bet that I have in so far, but I
locked in over sixty four. I feel like this is
a game that gets bet up to like sixty seven
or something. I just can't get. I can't get last
year's fifty five to forty nine game out of my head.
I know Jade and Daniels ran tom as my league neighbors,
(32:01):
a lot of guys from that matchup are out the door,
but he still got a lot of the same coaching
staffs in that game. So I really think we get
a lot of points in this one. I'm just a
little bit surprised, and I know LSU hasn't played a
lot of people yet, but I'm a little surprising. I
feel like they haven't been really discussed at all. I
know they lost the USC game. As you touched on
(32:22):
and they're notable wins South Carolina UCLA, like if they
haven't really played anyone, but they're still sitting theresed yet. Yeah,
they're still saying at thirteen in the country and they're
at home in this one. I feel like this is
a top five college football atmosphere. This is a night
game as well. Yeah, it's a seven to thirty game
as well. Like, I feel like that's one of the
(32:43):
Cardinals sins, like betting against LSU at home at night.
So I think three and a half that's a big number.
But that's also like a is Old Miss is Vegas
screaming at you to take Old Miss on that one.
It's a real interesting game for me. I think I'm
just gonna ride because I have Ole Miss over nine
and a half wins on the air. I think it
might just stick with stick with that on the side,
(33:05):
and just ride with the over. I think it's a
fun game. A shootout and you're playing in the forties
and you see kind of last team that has the
ball wins.
Speaker 1 (33:13):
This is a fun game to have on the second
TV while you're watching Ohio State Oregon and you turn
around like, oh, somebody just scored another touchdown. I think
that's how this game goes. I think I think will
Miss potentially is actually soft TBD on that one when
it's sick of feather in that.
Speaker 4 (33:32):
I think I think it right.
Speaker 1 (33:34):
I think LSU is very live in this game at home.
It's a big opportunity for them. And look, as much
as we don't want to lump LSU into the playoff conversation,
they win this game, they're going into the top ten.
Now the back end of the schedule, okay, go into
Arkansas rivalry game, a game that typically is Black Friday
(33:56):
or used to be in the past. So that's a
big game for our consol there's a letdown sandwich spot
you know, you name it, because they play A and
M the following week. So they're gonna run through a
gauntlet starting on Saturday with ole Miss at Arkansas at
A and M, and then Bama at home for the
what is usually the night game in Baton Rouge. It's tough,
(34:19):
tough one to go through. So I don't know if
I want to say crown them into a playoff with
a spot with a win, but they certainly get themselves
into the conversation if they do, and I think I
think they're live.
Speaker 4 (34:31):
They're in the conversation now.
Speaker 3 (34:33):
I'm going with ole Miss, and I think it's the
matchup thing where LSU has given up the most big
time plays this season, and then you.
Speaker 4 (34:42):
Look at the other side of the ball.
Speaker 3 (34:43):
Ole Miss has the most big time plays in the
country with rushes over ten or recessions over twenty and
they have eighty four of them, which is nine more
than the next at MY with Miami coming in second
place in that. I just think that they're going to
be able to make big plays, and Kentucky did a
good job limiting that. Olmoss was able to pile up
(35:04):
yards and they still the numbers still look pretty from
that game, but they made him do it slowly and
kind of go down the field methodically, kind of like
you know, like the Fangio style is what that was
kind of what they did where they they beat you
on fifteen play drives where almost wants to beat you deep,
and I think that's what they're gonna do. No, Harold Perkins,
(35:25):
I do think ole Miss is soft. I totally agree
with that, and I think that there's going to be
matchups down the road that take advantage of that, but
with no Harold Perkins now for LSU, which I do
think is a big deal in this matchup. I think
that this is kind of where Ole Miss's finesse is
able to show in a matchup against a bad defense
(35:46):
as opposed to down the stretch when they play a
little bit more legitimate defenses.
Speaker 1 (35:51):
I think the over is a fantastic play in this one,
by the way, I mean, I think both teams are
going going to go up and down the field. You
see a lot of great quarterback playing. Like said, if
if Ohio State Oregon is kind of a slug fest
like it could be, this is a fun alternative to have.
We need to find a game though, where the three
of us are not aligned, because it feels like a pretty.
Speaker 4 (36:13):
Much a little there right.
Speaker 1 (36:16):
Yeah, but if we're all on the over, we're all
on the over. It's just I feel like we need
to disagree. There's too much agreement going on here. With
that being said, let's talk real quick about the teams
that lost last week and bouncing back, because that's all
(36:38):
there you go. So you have Alabama at home against
South Carolina, a twenty one point favorite. Still still at
twenty one, there Miszoo at UMass. It's weird, but I
actually feel bad for UMass now because it could look
really really bad. And then who does is Michigan offer
(37:02):
they playing? Somebody's got Michigan on this list.
Speaker 4 (37:06):
I don't know. I'm on Tennessee as well.
Speaker 3 (37:10):
Tennessee Tennessee minus fourteen and a half against Florida.
Speaker 4 (37:13):
That's the only one of those group that that group
that I like.
Speaker 3 (37:16):
The other number is just so big, and I hate
betting big numbers, but I mean even the Tennessee numbers
pretty big there at fourteen and a half.
Speaker 4 (37:23):
I think people are riding a little high on Florida.
Speaker 3 (37:25):
Man, this UCF team that I thought could be a
sleeper at.
Speaker 1 (37:29):
Two straight, two straight stinkers in a.
Speaker 3 (37:31):
Row, and Vegas is sitting there holding the bag is
two weeks in a row. Vegas gave that UCF team
probably way too much or obviously way too much respect,
and Florida that game was over in the first quarter.
You just saw an athlete difference. I don't think you're
going to see that against Tennessee. And Beef and I
were texting about it. I've been really disappointed in Hypel.
(37:51):
I think Hypel's done a terrible job this year. I
think he's really been a coward with Nico, the way
that he's coached Nico has been so especially.
Speaker 4 (38:00):
The last couple of weeks. I said it that Oklahoma
game they won. I walked out of.
Speaker 3 (38:04):
That Tennessee Oklahoma, which should have been a big win,
feeling way worse about Tennessee and way worse about Hypel.
Speaker 4 (38:12):
And then you know, they lay the egg last week.
Speaker 3 (38:14):
So I guess I don't know why this anti Hypel
and anti Tennessee tyre for me is going to tell
you to bet Tennessee this week. But I do think
that this is a bounce back spot and I think
that Florida is feeling good now finally for the first
time this year probably, And I think this is where
Tennessee's kind of getting them at the right spot.
Speaker 1 (38:35):
On the flip side of those results, Vanderbilt is a
thirteen and a half point dog against Kentucky. I'm going
to make the assumption that when we see the betting
splits on Saturday, Vanderbilt is the most popular underdog because
of what they've done this season, not just against Bama,
but Diego Pavia led them to a win against Virginia
Tech at home. I'm betting Kentucky in this game, and
(38:57):
pretty confidently.
Speaker 2 (38:59):
Yeah, Kentucky. Kentucky min. Thirteen and a half, Batma minus
twenty one and a half Tennessee minus fifteen and a half,
and I'm taking Tennessee first half. Hypel is the best
first half against the spread coach in college football history,
like percentage wise. I think this is. When I was
talking with Mark, we said, like, my main point with
(39:22):
Tennessee it was like that twenty twenty two team was fun.
It was like you just wanted to watch them because
you knew that they were going up and down, and
it feels like this this year. He talked about an
sec media. Then defense is pretty damn good. I mean,
they weren't the reason why they lost last week. But
he's like, when you think of Tennessee, I want you
to think of defense, Like, no, dude, Like you got
this sweet quarterback, you got playmakers on the outside, you
(39:43):
have the sweet offensive system. Let's let loose and go
sport some points. I think this week might be the
week where he's like, all right, screw it, We're going
back to my old way and we're gonna put it
on them, maybe even look at team total. But yeah,
I definitely love Kentucky this week. Vanderbilt has to fall flat.
There's no way that they can poss up, come about
and trump what they did last week. And I think Bama,
(40:04):
you know that it might have been a felt better
about it if Saban was there going into this game.
I'll see how they bounce back after the board. But yet, yeah,
I have to feel like there's a little bit of
extra pressure on the gas this week. In that game
in South Carolina, a lot of people were on them
as a dog last week. Fall flat, disappointment against Ole
(40:27):
mess that it might be the wheels are kind of
turning in the opposite direction there. So I like the
teams in the bounced back spots, and then I like
Vanderbilt a fall flat flat as well.
Speaker 1 (40:37):
I want to hit on a few second tier games
real quick. They're they're very clearly in the second tier,
maybe in the third tier, but they're involving teams that
are on this fringe of the college football playoffs, and
they're both in the Big twelve. I was stayed at
West Virginia at night in Morgantown. I've sat here for
the last two weeks talking about Iowa State and really
(41:00):
hyping up the Cyclones. I'm staying far away from this game.
And then you have Kansas State going to Colorado, who
all of a sudden, is Colorado like half decent? Like
what do we make of them? Or is you sef
that bad from a few weeks ago? Those two games
in the Big Twelve, if not betting, they're just fascinating
(41:20):
from a matchup perspective, because Colorado and West Virginia could
in theory make those games difficult and in turn with
the playoff at least the Big Twelve conversation on it said,
who knows what the Big Twelve looks at, but those
feel like two really important games and they're two really
short spreads as well.
Speaker 2 (41:43):
Yeah, the West Virginia game is a no touch for me.
I'm just staying away from that because West Virginia is
just funky team where it's like which squad shows up
first of all? Oklahoma State maybe the biggest with the season.
What a terrible start to the year for them, you know? Yeah,
Like does that just mean Oklahoma States sucks even more
(42:03):
that West Virginia game last week? But I do really
like I think you still suck. Yeah, yeah, But I
I on the to the k State Colorado game. I like,
I really like KSE State this week. I think that
it's kind of a coming back to Earth game potentially
for Colorado in that one. But Colorado, who knows. Maybe
they're kind of playing with the chip on their shoulder
(42:24):
and at this point they're they're playing some pretty good football.
But you got to think that we win two weeks
ago or whatever it was against Baylor. You need a
Hail Mary to beat Baylor, who has been terrible as well.
You know how much of these wins are you know
that they're good or just the opponents they're playing our week.
So I think KSE State's a pretty good squad and
I think that right now you can look at them
(42:44):
as a favorite of the big tall I think they
take care of business against Colorado.
Speaker 1 (42:48):
I want to put a few money in the crumbs
type games like I do every week to and this
I'm just going to keep betting Army and fading UAB
until the wheels fall off and just so happens Army
plays U A B. This week. I'm taking Army minus
twenty six and a half against UAB. Army is a machine.
Navy's a machine as well, and UAB is the Trent
(43:10):
Dil for things. Just it's just not working out whatsoever.
Another one that has my interest Pit minus three and
a half against cal Cal emotional week game day. Somehow
bundling that game against Miami at home. Now you gotta
go three time zones over against a PIT team that
is quietly, very quietly climbing up the rankings with a
(43:33):
good offense as well, Eli Holsting leading that offense. I
like them. And there's one other one on the board.
Keep an eye out in the American I know we
talked about Army and Navy a lot, and Memphis has
been in the discussion. North Texas can light up the
scoreboard very easily as well. I have them at six
and a half at Florida Atlantic. I think that's gonna
(43:54):
be a very fun team to watch throughout the year.
Be interesting to see how they play against the top teams.
And another one I want to give a small bit
of attention to. I don't think I'm gonna bet it,
but well, you know how we talked about the start
where big ten road teams traveling the multiple time zones
(44:15):
adding a letdown spot there. Minnesota minus five at Ucla
stinks to high heaven. If you're if you're gonna bet
Ucla at any point of the season, this might be it.
Just because of the letdown to travel all of the above.
Speaker 4 (44:30):
I'm betting Minnesota.
Speaker 3 (44:32):
I don't like it, but I'm betting it. It's it's
an absolute yeah. Everything tells you that you should bet Ucla.
I just don't believe in Ucla whatsoever. So I'm taking
Minnesota minus to five. I didn't mention it earlier as
I cut out, but I like West Virginia. I'm starting
to talk myself in throughout the week.
Speaker 4 (44:52):
I wasn't.
Speaker 3 (44:53):
I didn't think I was gonna play it all week.
In the last couple of days, I've really talked myself in.
Neil Brown is well about five hundred against as a dog,
gets just eighteen outright wins as an underdog too, just
way better. He's a little bit Wilcox esque when it
comes to against spread as a dog.
Speaker 4 (45:10):
So give me West Virginia there.
Speaker 3 (45:12):
It feels like every time we think that we had
the Big twelve figured out, we don't. So it feels
like this is where that that spot comes in.
Speaker 4 (45:21):
One question I want to ask.
Speaker 3 (45:22):
You guys, the College of New Jersey, Rutgers with a
big game this week against Wisconsin.
Speaker 4 (45:28):
I think Wisconsin sticks. I think that.
Speaker 3 (45:31):
Them keeping it close with USC was just what we
have seen from USC now is that if you're an
all physical football team, that they're going to struggle in
any way. Rutgers is not going to be out physical
here by Wisconsin with Greg Sheiana chopping and shopping. So
I like Rutgers a lot here against Wisconsin.
Speaker 1 (45:55):
They're the state University of New Jersey, get.
Speaker 4 (45:57):
It right, the state University of New Jersey.
Speaker 1 (46:00):
The College of New Jersey is a whole different other college.
Speaker 3 (46:04):
Yeah, yeah, yeah, Lion, my great great insomnia cookies near
campus there, not far from, not far from my house at.
Speaker 1 (46:12):
Home, but covered covered many a swim meet at TC
and J In my previous life.
Speaker 3 (46:17):
Rutgers Luke Arizola, who I went to high school with.
He was a tight end at a tight end in
d End at a Sham and he went on to
play at Yukon. He's a tight end coach at Rutgers,
so a good friend of mine growing up. I'm kind
of got a soft spot in my heart for Rutgers
so which could you keep chopping over there beef Steve
Peichel pounding nails. But I think I'm I'm I might
(46:41):
be biased here, but I'm starting to talk myself into
Rutgers is one of my best bests this weekend.
Speaker 1 (46:46):
Speaking of the Big Ten, Perdue's awful. I would bet Illinois.
I think that spreads moved all the way to twenty
two and a half now, but Perdue Perdue got slacked
by Wisconsin, So that makes you it kind of inflates
what you think of Wisconsin. So I agree with you
your all process there to Rutgers. But I think also
to the point that Purdue is just very bad Illinois.
I know that's a kind of a rivalry game Big
(47:09):
Ten West, but I think Illinois just takes care of
business there that that's not going to be a game.
Speaker 3 (47:14):
Yeah, and you mentioned there that it's kind of like
wisconstant inflated from losing or from beating a terrible Purdue team,
and Rutgers is also deflated a little bit.
Speaker 4 (47:25):
I think people were from Washington about Rutgers Nebraska. They
lost Nebraska.
Speaker 3 (47:30):
I'm sorry, Yeah, they lost by a touchdown in Nebraska,
but they played great defense in that game held in
Nebraska to fourteen points. Ryola probably had his worst game
so far there. So I think that the defense is
legit there with Rutgers, and I think the offense will
be able to do more here against Wisconsin than it
was in Nebraska, especially at home.
Speaker 1 (47:49):
Plenty of depth on the schedule besides the big games.
All the big games will have plenty of our attention
in Week seven for Mark Henry Junior, Ryan Beef Coyle, Line,
Joe Tanzy. Come back next week will recap all of
the big games as well as preview Week eight and
get a little more into the college football playoffs that
we have a little more clarity after Week seven. Best
(48:11):
of luck on your bets and we will talk to
you guys next week
One one and welcome on into our Week seven college
football preview. If you're watching this on video, the two
other big brains, Ryan Coyle and Mark Henry Jr. Are
in full on depressed mode because we're recording this right
after NLTS Game four. I am Joe Tansey. I am
not the depressed one because my team decided to not
(00:39):
even make an effort in the wild card round. But
we're here to talk college football, the biggest weekend of
college football yet, and I'm sure these two very chipper
gentlemen with me will be able to give you everything
you need in terms of bets for Ohio State, Oregon,
Penn State, usc Al miss LSU River Shootout. It's still
(01:01):
the shootout, it's not the Red River rivalry between Texas
and Oklahoma. The best Saturday yet in college football. But
before we get to that, guys, the most chaotic Saturday
of college football we had last week. What do you
make of all the upsets and how does it affect
everything with the college football playoffs? If it does at all, I.
Speaker 2 (01:25):
Think the biggest thing is and I think we've touched
on it in a few times so far this season,
and I know Kirby talked about it this offseason. Mostly
he was saying, basically, with the transfer portal and nil
and everything that we've discussed over and over again, the
depth and the quality of rosters has changed. Like the
ceiling of Georgia, the ceiling of an Alabama, the ceiling
(01:48):
of Ohio State and so on, isn't as great as
it was five ten years ago because teams aren't just
stacking four and five star guys anymore. If those guys
aren't playing it in year one to learn year two,
those guys are out the door, go to get money
paid somewhere else and going to get a medium playing time.
The floors of a school like a Vanderbilt have raised.
(02:10):
And they're not saying that Vanderbilt now will be competing
for SEC toitles or anything, but maybe they're competing for
consistent balligibility instead of one to two wins a season.
I mean, they showed that on Saturday, like it wasn't
like it was a fluke, like a thirteen to ten
where Alabama threw seven picks, got two field goal blocks
and Vanderbilt wins on a walk off sixty five yard
(02:30):
or no. Vanderbilt had their way. They put up forty
plus points on Alabama and AJ mccerron I heard him
say it this week. Vanderbilt kept it simple. They were
running the same play, they ran it to the right,
they ran it to the left, and they whooped Alabama
up front at the line of scrimmage. And you know,
in the past that stuff doesn't happen because you have
just guy after guy after guy. Now, if your top
(02:51):
three year, top four arm producing, you don't have the
next guy to turn two. So that's one of the
biggest things. And I said it on Monday, it was like,
just buckle up because we're still only halfway through the
regular season. You're gonna have a lot more of these
weekends to comment. You know, the playoff picture is just
getting wilder and wilder, Like there's a path now where Texas, Tech,
Syracuse and Indiana could be in the college football playoff
(03:14):
and that just makes it crazier and crazier by the week.
Speaker 1 (03:17):
So here here's the question I'll posed to you, Mark,
was there really chaos went in terms of the college
football playoff? Because you look at Missouri, you completely underperformed
in the first place this season. You have a team
in Alabama who has win over Georgia in the bank.
Tennessee still has to play Georgia and Alabama. If they
(03:39):
win one of those games, we're essentially putting them in.
How do you kind of look at the SEC and
the playoff picture right now and does it change much,
if at all, because of where those two teams specifically
this is definitely on way on the outside, but how
Bama and Tennessee are right now?
Speaker 3 (04:01):
I mean, yeah, it takes away your margin for kind
of mess up your margin for error here, for my
brain is not firing on all cylinders, I'll be quite honest,
but I couldn't find that term, but I would say that, yeah,
Alabama Tennessee. Now I don't know if it becomes an
(04:23):
elimination game because that's definitely not the case. Either team
could get in with two losses, but the team that
loses that game is not going to be in a
great spot.
Speaker 4 (04:33):
And we'll get to that later.
Speaker 3 (04:34):
I have a little bit of a take about this
week in college football compared to some upcoming weeks that
I think might be a hot take out there.
Speaker 4 (04:41):
But yeah, I.
Speaker 3 (04:43):
Think that you look at those teams and it eliminates
their margin for error, Does it get them out of
the college football race. No, but you look at a
team like Ole Miss and if they're able to get
at the job done this week, their schedule shapes up
a lot more favorably with kind of how their earlier
see and mess up when against Kentucky, then and Alabamas
could or then a Tennessee could.
Speaker 1 (05:06):
So when we look at the rest of the picture here,
because so many loss has happened, there are teams that
have drugged themselves back into contention. We're talking about Clemson,
talking about Notre Dame, that maybe a second team from
the Big twelve, depending on how those things shake out.
But we're looking at the bottom half of this, so
(05:28):
the bottom third really maybe the ten to twelve area
or nine to eleven area, because we're assuming twelve is
the G five team. How does this kind of I guess,
change the motivations for a Clemson, for a Notre Dame,
for you know, maybe a k state of sorts where
now all of a sudden, you you're one loss in
(05:50):
the sec away from really being in this. In this
conversation for good, you.
Speaker 3 (05:55):
Keep saying Notre Dame, you mean Army, right, Army. When
Army goes twelve.
Speaker 1 (06:00):
To know, well, there'll be the G five team.
Speaker 4 (06:03):
Well, hey, they might be the one seed.
Speaker 3 (06:05):
They beat Notre Dame twelve and no, you beat Navy
and Army Navy.
Speaker 4 (06:09):
I don't know.
Speaker 3 (06:10):
It is funny, but Elliott, I'm sure Beef Solid put
out the his college football playoff prediction. He actually had
Boise State as the four seed, and he said that
the Big twelve. I think it was Iowa State. He
ranked Iowa State is like the seven or eight. So
I don't even know how that works. I thought that
(06:31):
the four, Uh mean the conference teams were guaranteed?
Speaker 4 (06:35):
Was he just rolling there?
Speaker 1 (06:37):
Yeah?
Speaker 2 (06:37):
It is the it is the four and large team
or the four champions, the G five, the G five
can get it. It's it's if Boise's like if just
say Boise's nine and Iowa State wins a Big twelve
at ten, boys, that would go they're guarantee. Yeah, I
mean the they're guaranteed a spot. But it's not Kencelana
in fact that it's just acc s see Big ten,
(07:00):
Big twelve.
Speaker 3 (07:01):
That would be awesome if Boise State could be the
fourth seed and get a buy and go make a
Big twelve team. I think the Big twelve championship. The
Big twelve champion could have two or three losses and
we'll get to I think State this week, but yeah,
I don't there's a good chance that they're runked pretty low.
Speaker 1 (07:19):
So we have three conferences that we've mentioned. We haven't
mentioned the Big Ten yet, and I think in terms
of significant shifts in the playoff, I think the Big
Ten went through the most drastic one in Week six
because Michigan and USC both now have two losses, So
you have a clear top three in Ohio State, Oregon,
(07:39):
and Penn State, and then Michigan and USC are really
fighting for their lives here and Michigan schedule isn't very
good and USC could very well lose to Penn State
at home this weekend be completely out of the playoff picture, Beef.
I mean, what do you make of the Big Ten now?
It feels like we just have three teams and no
(07:59):
matter what happens this weekend with Ohio State and Oregon,
it feels like those teams are getting in.
Speaker 2 (08:06):
Yeah. USC is starting to revert to what I thought
about them at preseason, where it was like they're just
not ready to play in the Big Ten. Roster wise,
and I thought once they got into big ten play. Hell,
I even thought the first game against LSU had kind
of exposed that, But that was still my main takeaway
coming out of that LSU game with USC. It was like,
all right, sure they tackled, but now you're seeing four
(08:27):
or five weeks into the season, the willingness to tackle decreases,
Like once you get those those bumps and bruises, do
you really want to level that shoulder in and make
that key play? So you know, USC was up there
Washington or excuse me, Michigan last week, as we talked
about with the Washington game. Going into that game, Michigan
was minus sixteen hundred to miss the playoff, plus eight
hundred to make it, and they were number ten in
(08:48):
the country. Really goes to show you kind of what
Vegas thought about their prospects. So now you're kind of
just down to Ohio State, Oregon and Penn State. But
if Penn State goes to USC shoots himself in the
foot this weekend, Penn State, then suddenly that becomes must
win against Ohio State coming up Oregon. Ohio State you
see in that scenario as well. But I think I
(09:11):
think we're going to see two teams out of the
Big Ten, potentially three, but a lot of these guys
still got to play each other. So that's kind of
the main question in that regard.
Speaker 1 (09:21):
So let's get right into it. The game of the week,
potentially the game of the season. Alabama Georgia obviously has
something to say about that in terms of how it
played out, but at least, going in you have number
two versus number three Ohio State at Oregon. I'll put
this stat out there. Now. Look, there's a little asterisk
because Ohio State hasn't traveled yet, Penn State hasn't traveled yet,
(09:42):
and I don't believe Oregon has traveled this either. But
teams that have traveled two plus time zones, whether it
be West or East in the Big Ten are one
and seven straight up so far. That includes Michigan at
Washington last week, USC at Minnesota Ucla, although not as
much in the spotlight the same at Penn State last week.
(10:05):
That's concerning trend.
Speaker 4 (10:06):
Now.
Speaker 1 (10:07):
I think some of that also has to do with
who the teams that suffered those losses are, but it
at least is notable that travel in the Big Ten
has affected a lot of teams so far. Now I
think I don't think that will apply here. I think,
at least in my opinion, the better defense is what's
going to apply here in Ohio State. But when you
(10:30):
look at this game, I'll start with you, mark, Ohio
State and Oregon, what do you think is the difference
maker in this game.
Speaker 3 (10:38):
I don't think Dylan Gabriel is good enough to beat
Ohio State. And I know that that sounds funny because
I don't know if Will Howard is an incredible quarterback.
Speaker 4 (10:49):
They probably I.
Speaker 3 (10:50):
Don't know if I would take Will Howard over Gabriel,
but don't. I don't think they're on a different level
than each other. I think they're on a similar tier
of college quarterback. Half a guy who I do another
podcast with. He's an Oklahoma fan. He's kind of been
on the Dylan Gabriel is a bit of a screen
merchant ever since he was playing at Oklahoma. So I
(11:11):
feel like I didn't watch him as closely at Oklahoma
as I'm watching him at Oregon.
Speaker 4 (11:15):
And now that you watch him, there really is a lot.
Speaker 3 (11:19):
To be desired when it comes to taking shots down
the field, and it comes to kind of extending plays, and.
Speaker 4 (11:26):
It really does feel like he's.
Speaker 3 (11:28):
A bit of a system guy and he's kind of
just throwing in the flat, throwing checking down all the time.
And I get that his is yardage totals to get
pretty crazy. I think he's been pretty disappointing so far
this year. And I know that the stats would tell
you otherwise, but I'm starting to think he's a bit
of a college quarterback stat merchant. That's not the only
(11:50):
reason I'm taking Ohio State. You look at a lot
of the stats, and I like Dan Lanning. Dan Lanning
is a really good coach. I feel like Dan Lanning
has been crowned a bit as I don't know about
the next up or the next guy, or you know,
the next premier coach in college football.
Speaker 4 (12:09):
What's the last big game.
Speaker 3 (12:11):
Dan Lanning is won at Oregon. I'm pose of that
to both of you.
Speaker 4 (12:20):
You go look at the schedule last year.
Speaker 3 (12:23):
What I looked at didn't have a team that finished
ranked on it in terms of their wins. In twenty
twenty two, they beat a UCLA team that was ranked
nine at one point at home. They didn't finish the
year ranked. They had four losses. They also beat a
Utah team that was ranked ten. They also finished that
year with four losses. That was in a twenty twenty
(12:43):
two season that Oregon went ten to three. So I
feel like Dan Lanning got a lot of credit for
maybe beating a pretty bad schedule last year and losing
the two games that mattered against Kalen Debor and Michael Pennix.
And now we're turning around this year and we're expecting
him to win this big gaming.
Speaker 4 (13:02):
At Ohio State.
Speaker 3 (13:04):
I don't know what big game he's won to prove
to me that I should be backing Oregon in this spot.
Speaker 2 (13:13):
Yeah, when I look at when I look at this matchup,
I'm siding with you there. Mark with Gabriel has been disappointing,
I think to extent where it's like he needs everything
working with him to make it work. And last week
he had I mean lucky he was playing Michigan State.
He had two brutal turnovers in the red zone where
(13:35):
he was trying to make Yeah, he was trying to
make throws that he just doesn't have the talent and
the arm strength to make. And you do that against
a team like Ohio State that comes back to bite you.
At the same time, when I look at Ohio State, though,
I mean Iowa last week, Okay, I was Iowa, though
I'll probably still go eight and four, nine to three.
But outside of that, Michigan State, Marshall, Western, Michigan acron,
(13:57):
have we really seen this Iowa State team or excuse me,
the Ohio State team tested yet now they have to
go to Eugene, where I feel like Oregon doesn't get
hyped up as a good enough crowd nationally just because
you know, most of those games are are night games
out there at ten thirty and whatnot. But that is
from a testament of analysts have gone across the country
(14:18):
to these games. They say, that's a top five, the
top ten atmosphere in college football. So you're not walking
into an easy atmosphere at all. And this is by
far the toughest game you played. You know, Oregon's gonna
be juiced up. But for Oregon or for Ohio State
to be a it's now a three point favorite, I
believe I think it opened up at four. For them
to be that big of a favorite on the road,
I think just goes to show you how much they
(14:40):
believe in the buck guys so I'm signing with the
Buckeyes here. I do think Will Howard too has a
lot more to work with at his disposal than Dylan
Gabriel as well, and the defense is more legit. I
think the defense gives the Oregon offensive line troubles, which
has had a lot of trouble early in the season.
So I'm gonna side with the Ohio State here, but
definitely a first major test for Ohio State. I think
(15:03):
Oregon's had a cup tough couple more games than Ohio
State has to start the year.
Speaker 1 (15:09):
Yeah, okay, I'll keep it simple. Defense travels plain and simple.
Like you're right about Dylan Gabriel. You have a great
point about about Dan Lanning. But I think when it
comes down to this matchup in this season, Ohio State's
defense we have a big enough sample size now where
it's been consistently not just good, but great, like top
(15:31):
in the country in a lot of categories. It's not
just one thing they're good at. They're good at everything,
and I think we forgot a little bit because everything
crashed down so bad offensively at the end of last season,
especially in the bowl game. All their defensive studs came
back you know you still have two we will allow
(15:52):
you still have a loaded front. Seven Caleb Downs gets
added to that group. I think in terms of just
match up alone, I mean, look, Ohio State's got all
the studs on defense that can make Dylan Gabriel's life hell.
And if you mentioned those two red zone interceptions against
(16:14):
Michigan State, if you're making those mistakes against Michigan State,
one or two are probably prone to come about against
Ohio State. And that's concerning for me when I look
across the board here at what the strengths and weaknesses
are of both teams. Look, I'm not saying Will Howard
is an elite, elite quarterback. I don't think you can
(16:39):
say that yet. But the pieces he has around them
with Judkins and Henderson in the rush game, at Jeremiah
Smith is coming into his own at receiver. And oh,
by the way, we've talked so much about Jeremiah Smith
and coming in a mega Agbuka is still there, one
of the longest tenured receivers in the country. So I
think you have the pieces around him at Ohio State
(17:03):
that sets him up far more for success than Dylan
Gabriel does at Oregon and I also think that the
defense is just playing out of its mind right now,
where it's so hard for me, even with the home
field advantage that Oregon hash to even put trust into
the Oregon Ducks because Ohio State, I mean, everything across
(17:24):
the board defensively has been stellar. So let's move on you.
Speaker 3 (17:35):
You mentioned the guys there with Tuamalu and Destroyer and
Williams and Burke and and downs on defense. I just
don't know if Oregon has kind of the NFL talent
at all that that Ohio State has. And you know
I fell for this with Georgia Alabama, and you know
I underrated the home field advantage and I've been wrong
on everything this year, so probably fade what I'm saying.
Speaker 4 (17:58):
But you look at Ohio State.
Speaker 3 (18:00):
You mentioned the defense, and I just wanted to throw
this in there. Part of how good the defense is
outside of all the NFL names I just mentioned the
guys that are going to get taken in round one round.
Speaker 4 (18:10):
Two, is that Chip Kelly has the running game.
Speaker 3 (18:14):
And you know it's not just Chip Kelly, it's also
having the studs like quin Shawn Judkins and Trevion Henderson
and a quarterback who can run like Will Howard, but
that's complimentary football. And they're keeping the ball on the ground,
keeping the defense off the field so that they're fresh
when they get back on the field. Chip Kelly's not
running his crazy tempo offense all the time necessarily, so
(18:35):
he's an incredible kind of designer when it comes to
running the football, I think when it comes to these
big games, but they're going to be able to design
up with Judkins and Henderson, maybe even out of the
same backfield.
Speaker 4 (18:45):
Sometimes it's going to be crazy.
Speaker 1 (18:48):
Yeah, And I think that leaves We haven't talked much
about them because haven't played many big games, but I
mean they a man hitdled Iowa last week. You know,
even watching just a quarter of that game, they were
all over them and pouncing on them. And look if
the numbers the three right now, I'll gladly take that.
I think that's a pretty easy number for me to
to cut to latch in on and hell, I'd probably
(19:10):
take them as much as high as a touchdown. Like,
I'm not confident in how their defense UH is playing,
And to me, that's the X factor, you know, forget
the quarterback play, forget all the all the Studs on offense.
If that defense is playing it the way it is,
it's gonna be hard for anybody to stop Ohio State
this season.
Speaker 4 (19:28):
Yeah, I'm as well put.
Speaker 1 (19:30):
And simple's who wanted. The other matchup in the Big
Ten no longer a top twenty five matchup because USC
fell flat at Minnesota last week, which I think some
people saw coming. But it's still a pretty surprising result.
And now you have Penn Stake going out to USC
is a pretty overwhelming favorite. Uh. James Franklin is doing
(19:52):
his best, I guess, to try and not talk about
the game and complain about the travel. Maybe that holds
in credence because of how the record is right now.
But cool, you're flying out a Harrisburg and State instead
of State College. Whoop do you do? I think you
your college athletes can can handle that quite well because
the plane I assume is gonna be very cushy and
(20:15):
nice that they're gonna fly on with recliented seats and everything.
They're five point favorite against USC. Everything we've seen from
both of these teams doesn't give you a single reason
to bet on USC in this game. I mean, let's
be honest, Penn State's just a machine in these types
of games. Could it be better, sure, but they're they're not.
(20:38):
You take the UCLA game for example last week. They
didn't blow them out of the water in the first half,
but they made all the plays defensively. Eventually the offense
got going and they ended up when in big I
think it was something like twenty seven eleven or something
like that, but UCLA scored a very late touchdown to
to make it remotely I guess respectable. So I mean
(20:59):
this to me is very straightforward. If you're giving me
James Franklin in this situation, not against top ten team anymore.
Very important to note, I think it's a pretty easy
bet to make before. Do you think on Penn State USC.
Speaker 2 (21:13):
Yeah, I'll go right to the camera there with some
beef up front. I think that's a major difference in
this game. I think that's a major difference of why
USC is gonna need a couple of years to rekind
of make this roster and make it into a bully squad,
not a track squad. We know track squads aren't gonna
fly in the Big Ten. You look at Penn State
(21:35):
on both sides of the ball line of scrimmage, they're
going to be able to manhandle. I think this USC team,
and I think last week, you know, I'm pretty sure
we all were on Penn State last week with the
minus twenty seven against UCLA, thinking that they would just
roll in that one, probably keeping it pretty vanilla in
that game. I think this is a game against USC
on the road where you kind of really fully unveil
(21:57):
the playbook. Nick Singleton didn't even play last week. I
think they just kind of wanted to get through that
game and be fully focused going into this one. Because
USC still a much more talented team. We've also seen
Millard Moss regress I think since that first LSU game
kind of come back to this is why you were
the guy that was sitting on the bench for three
four years and you got your chance to I think
(22:18):
USC will be fine eight and four something like that.
But I really like Penn State in this game. You
talked about it a bunch before, especially going into that
West Virginia game, that James Franklin kind of thrives in
these spots. Not a top ten team, a favorite of
less than you know, less than a touchdown. This is
where a spot that he should he should dominate. So
(22:39):
I like Penn State to win this one, and I
think that they went pretty comfortably in a statement game,
Like I feel like Penn State still hasn't gotten that
national type buzz. I feel like Tennessee was a team
that was getting so much buzz. Penn State has been
doing pretty much the same damn thing, and they played
some better teams as well. So Penn Sate, I think,
can really put themselves in the driver's seat this week
for there they're gonna be as long as they hang
(23:00):
on and win this game, they're going to be at
least number three in the country because you got to
figure the loser of that Oregon versus Highest State game
and is drop and below them. Yeah.
Speaker 1 (23:08):
Absolutely, And they're very quiet number four. It's very difficult
to say that sometimes, but Penn State is a very
quiet number four. They're just going about their business right now,
beating the teams they should beat. With the West Virginia game,
a lot of people thought that would have been a
slip up spot. It wasn't, like the only the toughest
test they've gotten with some bowling green in week two, right,
(23:29):
and that was just more of a shootout than anything.
So I think in this game is where quote Nikki
the new offensive coordinator ends up being the difference maker.
Maybe there's a more creative offense. Jilly is allowed to
throw the ball deeper, you get a few of those
twenty thirty yard pass plays that end up making the
(23:51):
difference on top of just grinding it out. And look,
I said defense travels. I think that's true with Penn
State as well. Their defense is phenomenal, and I think
we'll see the same exact thing in terms of defensive
domination out of Penn State that we will with Ohio State.
Speaker 4 (24:09):
Yeah, I'm on Penn State as well.
Speaker 3 (24:11):
I mean, you saw Michigan and obviously Minnesota punch USC
in the mouth, and I think I think Penn State
is just a much.
Speaker 4 (24:21):
Better version of both of those teams.
Speaker 3 (24:23):
So I think Penn State is going to do the
exact same thing, except to it by a lot more.
Speaker 1 (24:26):
Points, with far better running backs too. Exactly to a
running back tandem that I think is I think you
can make an argument's the most underrated in all of
college football.
Speaker 4 (24:39):
Probably the second best.
Speaker 3 (24:41):
Well, honestly, I'll think I'll think Johnathy and Beef as
my as a running back to over maybe anybody in
the country, but or maybe I'll say Johnty and Tansy,
but you don't want to.
Speaker 4 (24:56):
We're giving it.
Speaker 3 (24:57):
We're giving it to ash and every time. Anyway, we're
just saying exactly to make it a combo. But I mean,
after Judkins and Trevion, I don't think anybody has a
second back like k Tron Allen.
Speaker 1 (25:09):
Yeah, it really is fascinating to see, Uh, Texas and
Oklahoma the Red River rivalry. It's the Red River Shootout, Like,
let's be honest, we can't call it that technically, but
that's one of the Red River Shootout Texas and Oklahoma.
Oklahoma's dominated this rivalry. You if you look at the
trajectory of these teams right in these programs, you don't
(25:33):
exactly think Oklahoma's been the dominant side in Red River,
but they have.
Speaker 4 (25:39):
So.
Speaker 1 (25:39):
Now you look at a team in Oklahoma freshman quarterback,
nothing seems to be going right. They barely beat Auburn
two weeks ago. Texas, by all accounts, is going back
to quin yours, their fourteen point favorite. Everything is going
in their favor. If this means Texas is cruising.
Speaker 2 (25:57):
Right, Yeah, the my main kind of take on this one,
and you know, I think once I'm settled on it,
Texas I'm gonna have winning the game. I'm not sure
what I'm gonna take with the spread yet. The biggest
thing for me in this matchup is as looking at
last year's box score, because I remember I had Oklahoma
spread in that one. I want to say it was
(26:18):
like a seven point spread. They wound up winning that
game outright, obviously doing Gabriel rush for a little over
one hundred yards in that game. And what does Michael
Hawkins do. Well, he's not a great thrower of the
foot ball right now, but he is able to use
his legs. So if they're able to kind of scheme
up some similar stuff or just get Hawkins moving out
of the pocket gave Gabriel gave Texas a lot of
(26:39):
fits last year with his legs, so if Oklahoma is
able to do that, they could post some problems. And
quin you weres coming off an injury, coming off two
weeks of no gameplay and then plus a bye week,
so he come out a little rusty as well. Maybe
the angle in this game is look at in Oklahoma
plus plus the points in the first quarter plus the
points in the half, maybe get them Marley and Texas
(27:02):
kind of takes over in the second half. Definitely think
Texas is a much better team. I'm a much bigger
fan of them going forward over the long haul. We
know how I'm not a fan of this Oklahoma squad,
but that's just something that's been in the back of
my mind a little bit. Hawkins potentially causing some problem
with his legs and maybe making things a little bit
interesting with yours coming off some rust.
Speaker 1 (27:21):
I'm taking the over in this game. Look, the Red
River is just a It's a knockout, drag out brawl,
that's really It always seems to be chaotic. There always
seems to be points in this game. I think Texas
does win. But I think you're right, Beef. I think
that you also the angle to look into in this
one is a potentially Texas liveline, maybe somewhere around like
(27:45):
the second quarter, depending on does Quinn yours look a
little rusty after a few weeks on the shelf, Ken
Oklahoma with with Hawkins, with an athletic quarterback, get the
ball downfield, maybe put points on the board first. I
think it's a way to look at it. Texas does
win this game, but I'd feel more confident they're being
there being points. I think Oklahoma could be feisty. I
(28:07):
don't think they can win, maybe cover, but I think
it's a it's a rivalry game. I think they will
be at least a little bit feisty in this month.
Speaker 2 (28:17):
Nine of the last eleven meetings decided by eight or fewer.
It's always a chaotic game, and I feel like most
of the time comes down to the wire. But I
think this is the first time, at least in recent memory,
that you can point to the rosters and see a
significant gap between the talent Texas being, you know, a
(28:37):
much better squad than Oklahoma.
Speaker 3 (28:39):
I'm not touching this one from a gambling standpoint, but
part of why I think this week has kind of
become a little bit overrated, to be honest, is because
USC and Oklahoma didn't.
Speaker 4 (28:50):
Live up to their end of the bargain of making
this week.
Speaker 3 (28:53):
That's cool, and maybe I'm wrong, Maybe I'm Maybe both
underdogs went out right, or one of those guys went
out right, and it makes me feel it makes me
look stuper for saying that, but having said that, it
makes me have to think at this point where if
Lincoln Riley looks in the mirror and the Oklahoma Sooner fans,
who probably hate Lincoln Riley's guts more than anybody on
(29:15):
the planet, look in the mirror, they wouldn't both You
don't think both of them would turn back the clock
and maybe make a different decision a couple of years ago.
I think both sides. Maybe Oklahoma forks over a little
bit more money and Lincoln Riley stays instead of going.
I think you're probably better off on both sides.
Speaker 1 (29:36):
Yeah, it really is fascinating to see how those two
programs kind of really haven't gotten to where they've wanted
to be, right, So it's yeah, it is a I
don't know if you can go outside indoors because neither
of them have been excellent, But yeah, it's it's definitely
it's good.
Speaker 4 (29:54):
It's the same with Brian Kelly.
Speaker 3 (29:55):
At the same time, like Notre Dame an LSU is
kind of the same situation, Like you're kind of looking
at slife indoors. Both jobs that switched high, they switched
around the same time.
Speaker 1 (30:05):
And what a way to slide into the last big
game of the week. Ole Miss and LSU I think
another game that's lost. It's lost a little bit because
of ole Miss has lost to Kentucky. Look, ole Miss
has has gotten back up to number nine, but without
all of the losses that happened last week, you know
(30:25):
they might not be right because Missouri, Michigan, and USC
were all ahead of them going into week six. So
to me, that's a little fascinating that Ole Miss is
number nine and it feels like, I want to say
it's a cheap number nine, but it almost feels that way,
right because they got punched in the face by Kentucky.
(30:45):
They went back and and beat South Carolina. But we're
we're I think we're still trying to figure out here
what the hell Kentucky and South Carolina are. I think
Kentucky is a tough team, but you have that loss
to South Carolin on it and it just completely baffles you. Right,
So it's one of those that that messes with your head. LSU.
(31:07):
You know, not really a lot to write home about. Either.
You have the loss to USC, and then you know
they've they've been scoring points. I think that's the positive.
They scored thirty four or more in every game they
held South Alabama ten. They held UCLA to seventeen in
their last two games. How much credence you put in
(31:29):
those results, I don't really know, because they're they're weaker
opponents almost can certainly move the ball. You've talked me
through this one. How does how does Ole miss LSU
end up playing out?
Speaker 2 (31:41):
I locked in the over for this one at the
beginning of the week. It was the It's the only
college bet that I have in so far, but I
locked in over sixty four. I feel like this is
a game that gets bet up to like sixty seven
or something. I just can't get. I can't get last
year's fifty five to forty nine game out of my head.
I know Jade and Daniels ran tom as my league neighbors,
(32:01):
a lot of guys from that matchup are out the door,
but he still got a lot of the same coaching
staffs in that game. So I really think we get
a lot of points in this one. I'm just a
little bit surprised, and I know LSU hasn't played a
lot of people yet, but I'm a little surprising. I
feel like they haven't been really discussed at all. I
know they lost the USC game. As you touched on
(32:22):
and they're notable wins South Carolina UCLA, like if they
haven't really played anyone, but they're still sitting theresed yet. Yeah,
they're still saying at thirteen in the country and they're
at home in this one. I feel like this is
a top five college football atmosphere. This is a night
game as well. Yeah, it's a seven to thirty game
as well. Like, I feel like that's one of the
(32:43):
Cardinals sins, like betting against LSU at home at night.
So I think three and a half that's a big number.
But that's also like a is Old Miss is Vegas
screaming at you to take Old Miss on that one.
It's a real interesting game for me. I think I'm
just gonna ride because I have Ole Miss over nine
and a half wins on the air. I think it
might just stick with stick with that on the side,
(33:05):
and just ride with the over. I think it's a
fun game. A shootout and you're playing in the forties
and you see kind of last team that has the
ball wins.
Speaker 1 (33:13):
This is a fun game to have on the second
TV while you're watching Ohio State Oregon and you turn
around like, oh, somebody just scored another touchdown. I think
that's how this game goes. I think I think will
Miss potentially is actually soft TBD on that one when
it's sick of feather in that.
Speaker 4 (33:32):
I think I think it right.
Speaker 1 (33:34):
I think LSU is very live in this game at home.
It's a big opportunity for them. And look, as much
as we don't want to lump LSU into the playoff conversation,
they win this game, they're going into the top ten.
Now the back end of the schedule, okay, go into
Arkansas rivalry game, a game that typically is Black Friday
(33:56):
or used to be in the past. So that's a
big game for our consol there's a letdown sandwich spot
you know, you name it, because they play A and
M the following week. So they're gonna run through a
gauntlet starting on Saturday with ole Miss at Arkansas at
A and M, and then Bama at home for the
what is usually the night game in Baton Rouge. It's tough,
(34:19):
tough one to go through. So I don't know if
I want to say crown them into a playoff with
a spot with a win, but they certainly get themselves
into the conversation if they do, and I think I
think they're live.
Speaker 4 (34:31):
They're in the conversation now.
Speaker 3 (34:33):
I'm going with ole Miss, and I think it's the
matchup thing where LSU has given up the most big
time plays this season, and then you.
Speaker 4 (34:42):
Look at the other side of the ball.
Speaker 3 (34:43):
Ole Miss has the most big time plays in the
country with rushes over ten or recessions over twenty and
they have eighty four of them, which is nine more
than the next at MY with Miami coming in second
place in that. I just think that they're going to
be able to make big plays, and Kentucky did a
good job limiting that. Olmoss was able to pile up
(35:04):
yards and they still the numbers still look pretty from
that game, but they made him do it slowly and
kind of go down the field methodically, kind of like
you know, like the Fangio style is what that was
kind of what they did where they they beat you
on fifteen play drives where almost wants to beat you deep,
and I think that's what they're gonna do. No, Harold Perkins,
(35:25):
I do think ole Miss is soft. I totally agree
with that, and I think that there's going to be
matchups down the road that take advantage of that, but
with no Harold Perkins now for LSU, which I do
think is a big deal in this matchup. I think
that this is kind of where Ole Miss's finesse is
able to show in a matchup against a bad defense
(35:46):
as opposed to down the stretch when they play a
little bit more legitimate defenses.
Speaker 1 (35:51):
I think the over is a fantastic play in this one,
by the way, I mean, I think both teams are
going going to go up and down the field. You
see a lot of great quarterback playing. Like said, if
if Ohio State Oregon is kind of a slug fest
like it could be, this is a fun alternative to have.
We need to find a game though, where the three
of us are not aligned, because it feels like a pretty.
Speaker 4 (36:13):
Much a little there right.
Speaker 1 (36:16):
Yeah, but if we're all on the over, we're all
on the over. It's just I feel like we need
to disagree. There's too much agreement going on here. With
that being said, let's talk real quick about the teams
that lost last week and bouncing back, because that's all
(36:38):
there you go. So you have Alabama at home against
South Carolina, a twenty one point favorite. Still still at
twenty one, there Miszoo at UMass. It's weird, but I
actually feel bad for UMass now because it could look
really really bad. And then who does is Michigan offer
(37:02):
they playing? Somebody's got Michigan on this list.
Speaker 4 (37:06):
I don't know. I'm on Tennessee as well.
Speaker 3 (37:10):
Tennessee Tennessee minus fourteen and a half against Florida.
Speaker 4 (37:13):
That's the only one of those group that that group
that I like.
Speaker 3 (37:16):
The other number is just so big, and I hate
betting big numbers, but I mean even the Tennessee numbers
pretty big there at fourteen and a half.
Speaker 4 (37:23):
I think people are riding a little high on Florida.
Speaker 3 (37:25):
Man, this UCF team that I thought could be a
sleeper at.
Speaker 1 (37:29):
Two straight, two straight stinkers in a.
Speaker 3 (37:31):
Row, and Vegas is sitting there holding the bag is
two weeks in a row. Vegas gave that UCF team
probably way too much or obviously way too much respect,
and Florida that game was over in the first quarter.
You just saw an athlete difference. I don't think you're
going to see that against Tennessee. And Beef and I
were texting about it. I've been really disappointed in Hypel.
(37:51):
I think Hypel's done a terrible job this year. I
think he's really been a coward with Nico, the way
that he's coached Nico has been so especially.
Speaker 4 (38:00):
The last couple of weeks. I said it that Oklahoma
game they won. I walked out of.
Speaker 3 (38:04):
That Tennessee Oklahoma, which should have been a big win,
feeling way worse about Tennessee and way worse about Hypel.
Speaker 4 (38:12):
And then you know, they lay the egg last week.
Speaker 3 (38:14):
So I guess I don't know why this anti Hypel
and anti Tennessee tyre for me is going to tell
you to bet Tennessee this week. But I do think
that this is a bounce back spot and I think
that Florida is feeling good now finally for the first
time this year probably, And I think this is where
Tennessee's kind of getting them at the right spot.
Speaker 1 (38:35):
On the flip side of those results, Vanderbilt is a
thirteen and a half point dog against Kentucky. I'm going
to make the assumption that when we see the betting
splits on Saturday, Vanderbilt is the most popular underdog because
of what they've done this season, not just against Bama,
but Diego Pavia led them to a win against Virginia
Tech at home. I'm betting Kentucky in this game, and
(38:57):
pretty confidently.
Speaker 2 (38:59):
Yeah, Kentucky. Kentucky min. Thirteen and a half, Batma minus
twenty one and a half Tennessee minus fifteen and a half,
and I'm taking Tennessee first half. Hypel is the best
first half against the spread coach in college football history,
like percentage wise. I think this is. When I was
talking with Mark, we said, like, my main point with
(39:22):
Tennessee it was like that twenty twenty two team was fun.
It was like you just wanted to watch them because
you knew that they were going up and down, and
it feels like this this year. He talked about an
sec media. Then defense is pretty damn good. I mean,
they weren't the reason why they lost last week. But
he's like, when you think of Tennessee, I want you
to think of defense, Like, no, dude, Like you got
this sweet quarterback, you got playmakers on the outside, you
(39:43):
have the sweet offensive system. Let's let loose and go
sport some points. I think this week might be the
week where he's like, all right, screw it, We're going
back to my old way and we're gonna put it
on them, maybe even look at team total. But yeah,
I definitely love Kentucky this week. Vanderbilt has to fall flat.
There's no way that they can poss up, come about
and trump what they did last week. And I think Bama,
(40:04):
you know that it might have been a felt better
about it if Saban was there going into this game.
I'll see how they bounce back after the board. But yet, yeah,
I have to feel like there's a little bit of
extra pressure on the gas this week. In that game
in South Carolina, a lot of people were on them
as a dog last week. Fall flat, disappointment against Ole
(40:27):
mess that it might be the wheels are kind of
turning in the opposite direction there. So I like the
teams in the bounced back spots, and then I like
Vanderbilt a fall flat flat as well.
Speaker 1 (40:37):
I want to hit on a few second tier games
real quick. They're they're very clearly in the second tier,
maybe in the third tier, but they're involving teams that
are on this fringe of the college football playoffs, and
they're both in the Big twelve. I was stayed at
West Virginia at night in Morgantown. I've sat here for
the last two weeks talking about Iowa State and really
(41:00):
hyping up the Cyclones. I'm staying far away from this game.
And then you have Kansas State going to Colorado, who
all of a sudden, is Colorado like half decent? Like
what do we make of them? Or is you sef
that bad from a few weeks ago? Those two games
in the Big Twelve, if not betting, they're just fascinating
(41:20):
from a matchup perspective, because Colorado and West Virginia could
in theory make those games difficult and in turn with
the playoff at least the Big Twelve conversation on it said,
who knows what the Big Twelve looks at, but those
feel like two really important games and they're two really
short spreads as well.
Speaker 2 (41:43):
Yeah, the West Virginia game is a no touch for me.
I'm just staying away from that because West Virginia is
just funky team where it's like which squad shows up
first of all? Oklahoma State maybe the biggest with the season.
What a terrible start to the year for them, you know? Yeah,
Like does that just mean Oklahoma States sucks even more
(42:03):
that West Virginia game last week? But I do really
like I think you still suck. Yeah, yeah, But I
I on the to the k State Colorado game. I like,
I really like KSE State this week. I think that
it's kind of a coming back to Earth game potentially
for Colorado in that one. But Colorado, who knows. Maybe
they're kind of playing with the chip on their shoulder
(42:24):
and at this point they're they're playing some pretty good football.
But you got to think that we win two weeks
ago or whatever it was against Baylor. You need a
Hail Mary to beat Baylor, who has been terrible as well.
You know how much of these wins are you know
that they're good or just the opponents they're playing our week.
So I think KSE State's a pretty good squad and
I think that right now you can look at them
(42:44):
as a favorite of the big tall I think they
take care of business against Colorado.
Speaker 1 (42:48):
I want to put a few money in the crumbs
type games like I do every week to and this
I'm just going to keep betting Army and fading UAB
until the wheels fall off and just so happens Army
plays U A B. This week. I'm taking Army minus
twenty six and a half against UAB. Army is a machine.
Navy's a machine as well, and UAB is the Trent
(43:10):
Dil for things. Just it's just not working out whatsoever.
Another one that has my interest Pit minus three and
a half against cal Cal emotional week game day. Somehow
bundling that game against Miami at home. Now you gotta
go three time zones over against a PIT team that
is quietly, very quietly climbing up the rankings with a
(43:33):
good offense as well, Eli Holsting leading that offense. I
like them. And there's one other one on the board.
Keep an eye out in the American I know we
talked about Army and Navy a lot, and Memphis has
been in the discussion. North Texas can light up the
scoreboard very easily as well. I have them at six
and a half at Florida Atlantic. I think that's gonna
(43:54):
be a very fun team to watch throughout the year.
Be interesting to see how they play against the top teams.
And another one I want to give a small bit
of attention to. I don't think I'm gonna bet it,
but well, you know how we talked about the start
where big ten road teams traveling the multiple time zones
(44:15):
adding a letdown spot there. Minnesota minus five at Ucla
stinks to high heaven. If you're if you're gonna bet
Ucla at any point of the season, this might be it.
Just because of the letdown to travel all of the above.
Speaker 4 (44:30):
I'm betting Minnesota.
Speaker 3 (44:32):
I don't like it, but I'm betting it. It's it's
an absolute yeah. Everything tells you that you should bet Ucla.
I just don't believe in Ucla whatsoever. So I'm taking
Minnesota minus to five. I didn't mention it earlier as
I cut out, but I like West Virginia. I'm starting
to talk myself in throughout the week.
Speaker 4 (44:52):
I wasn't.
Speaker 3 (44:53):
I didn't think I was gonna play it all week.
In the last couple of days, I've really talked myself in.
Neil Brown is well about five hundred against as a dog,
gets just eighteen outright wins as an underdog too, just
way better. He's a little bit Wilcox esque when it
comes to against spread as a dog.
Speaker 4 (45:10):
So give me West Virginia there.
Speaker 3 (45:12):
It feels like every time we think that we had
the Big twelve figured out, we don't. So it feels
like this is where that that spot comes in.
Speaker 4 (45:21):
One question I want to ask.
Speaker 3 (45:22):
You guys, the College of New Jersey, Rutgers with a
big game this week against Wisconsin.
Speaker 4 (45:28):
I think Wisconsin sticks. I think that.
Speaker 3 (45:31):
Them keeping it close with USC was just what we
have seen from USC now is that if you're an
all physical football team, that they're going to struggle in
any way. Rutgers is not going to be out physical
here by Wisconsin with Greg Sheiana chopping and shopping. So
I like Rutgers a lot here against Wisconsin.
Speaker 1 (45:55):
They're the state University of New Jersey, get.
Speaker 4 (45:57):
It right, the state University of New Jersey.
Speaker 1 (46:00):
The College of New Jersey is a whole different other college.
Speaker 3 (46:04):
Yeah, yeah, yeah, Lion, my great great insomnia cookies near
campus there, not far from, not far from my house at.
Speaker 1 (46:12):
Home, but covered covered many a swim meet at TC
and J In my previous life.
Speaker 3 (46:17):
Rutgers Luke Arizola, who I went to high school with.
He was a tight end at a tight end in
d End at a Sham and he went on to
play at Yukon. He's a tight end coach at Rutgers,
so a good friend of mine growing up. I'm kind
of got a soft spot in my heart for Rutgers
so which could you keep chopping over there beef Steve
Peichel pounding nails. But I think I'm I'm I might
(46:41):
be biased here, but I'm starting to talk myself into
Rutgers is one of my best bests this weekend.
Speaker 1 (46:46):
Speaking of the Big Ten, Perdue's awful. I would bet Illinois.
I think that spreads moved all the way to twenty
two and a half now, but Perdue Perdue got slacked
by Wisconsin, So that makes you it kind of inflates
what you think of Wisconsin. So I agree with you
your all process there to Rutgers. But I think also
to the point that Purdue is just very bad Illinois.
I know that's a kind of a rivalry game Big
(47:09):
Ten West, but I think Illinois just takes care of
business there that that's not going to be a game.
Speaker 3 (47:14):
Yeah, and you mentioned there that it's kind of like
wisconstant inflated from losing or from beating a terrible Purdue team,
and Rutgers is also deflated a little bit.
Speaker 4 (47:25):
I think people were from Washington about Rutgers Nebraska. They
lost Nebraska.
Speaker 3 (47:30):
I'm sorry, Yeah, they lost by a touchdown in Nebraska,
but they played great defense in that game held in
Nebraska to fourteen points. Ryola probably had his worst game
so far there. So I think that the defense is
legit there with Rutgers, and I think the offense will
be able to do more here against Wisconsin than it
was in Nebraska, especially at home.
Speaker 1 (47:49):
Plenty of depth on the schedule besides the big games.
All the big games will have plenty of our attention
in Week seven for Mark Henry Junior, Ryan Beef Coyle, Line,
Joe Tanzy. Come back next week will recap all of
the big games as well as preview Week eight and
get a little more into the college football playoffs that
we have a little more clarity after Week seven. Best
(48:11):
of luck on your bets and we will talk to
you guys next week
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