College Football Betting Preview: Week 8 -- 10/15/24

The Big Brains - Joe Tansey, Ryan "BEEF" Coyle", and Mark Henry Jr. dive into Week 8 of #CollegeFootball season

Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:16):
Po COmON in everyone to our Week Hate college Football
preview here on Fox Sports a game. They're I'm Jene
Tanzi with Ryan deef Clotell and Mark Henry Jr. The
big brains, as they like to call us here at
the station and boys were right in the heat of
college football season. Big games last week, even bigger games.
I think you could argue this week really exciting time

(00:39):
for the SEC and the Big Ten. The contenders are there.
Let's dive right into it and talk about the last week.
But within the constraints of the playoffs, Oregon is now
the Big Ten favorite. They beef or Ohio State. They're
number two. They're number two going to Purdue, which is
a whole different animal that we'll talk about in a

(01:01):
few minutes. But their number two, Penn State's number three,
Ohio States number four to me because this game was
close it thirty two to thirty one, A very well
played game on both sides. I think we have three
playoff teams in the Big Ten and we don't have
to worry about it. And this is not gonna be
messy at all.

Speaker 2 (01:18):
Right, Yeah, you never can say anything conclusive like that
in college football. My biggest takeaway from that that game
though on Saturday night was I feel like if you
pulled ten people throughout the offseason that pay close attention
that follow college football or whatnot, nine out of the
ten probably were saying Oregon's going to win that game

(01:38):
in the regular season at home, and then Ohio State
most likely gets the revenge in the Big Ten title game.
And it's not like Ohio State went there and they
got waxed by three scores.

Speaker 3 (01:47):
I just feel like everyone has been bashing Ohio State
this week.

Speaker 2 (01:50):
I think that game set a little bit more about
Oregon and their ability to kind of play up to
the opponents. Dylan Gabriel, I think that was the best
he looked in his time at Oregon so far are
so I think Ohio State's getting bashed a little bit
too much. I understand that their national title kind of
favorites coming into that one. They were looked at as
a team of maybe undefeated season or bus type. But

(02:15):
that's not a loss to write home about.

Speaker 3 (02:16):
You you went out.

Speaker 2 (02:17):
Even if you lose that Penn State game, You're probably
still go into the playoff. All that matters is if
you beat Michigan and you win the National Championship at
the end of.

Speaker 1 (02:24):
The day, mark the result on Saturday and Eugene, there's
our perception of that change if we're still in a
fourteen playoff.

Speaker 4 (02:35):
Yeah, definitely, definitely, it's definitely a different reaction if it's
fourteen playoff. Honestly, I think Beep is right, though I
think it's kind of getting the reaction as if it
is a fourteen playoff.

Speaker 5 (02:45):
But I do think Beep is right.

Speaker 4 (02:47):
I don't think it's some loss that's really season defining
in any way. It's it's not going to prevent them
from getting to any of their goals. It is just
kind of a one more notch in the Ryan Day
A frustration badge, I guess, how however you want to
word that, It's just it's hard for it's hard to

(03:08):
tell Ohio State fans not to be frustrated at Ryan
Day for what seems to be a lack of big
game success, which is funny to say with his record
if you go look at it, it's pretty incredible. But yeah,
I mean it's hard to Ohio State. The way that
they're graded is a bit different than most schools, I'd say, right, so.

Speaker 1 (03:27):
When you look at this now really the only way
we don't get these three teams because Penn State, you
give them a lot of credit for coming back the
way they did against USC. Durreller showed a lot in
that game. Tyler Warren is incredible. So you have these
three top four teams. If the only losses happen, say,

(03:51):
Ohio State and Penn State play each other on November second,
so one of those two teams is going to pick
up a loss, and then the winner of that game
most likely is playing Oregon in the Big Ten title game.
Regardless of what happens, though, I at least in those games,

(04:11):
it feels like these three teams are as close to
locks as we have right now in the College Football Playoff.
The SEC, I feel like has just a little bit
of chaos waiting for us because a lot of the
teams play each other. But it feels like, at least
with the Big Ten Michigan and USC losing the week before,

(04:32):
Penn State coming back and beating USC, and Ohio State
and Oregon playing a really close competitive game, it feels
like we could just lock these three teams in right
and then okay, we have nine more spots to fill.
That easy right, it's college football. Nothing nothing unexpected ever happens.

Speaker 3 (04:48):
Yeah.

Speaker 2 (04:48):
I think I was just kind of talking about that
with Brace, where it's you look at these top teams
in the SEC, and then you can compare them to the.

Speaker 3 (04:55):
Three teams in the Big Ten.

Speaker 2 (04:56):
Just say, the three teams in the Big Ten with
Penn State, Ohio State, and Oregon all went up with
one loss. You look at these SEC teams regardless of
whatever happens. You know, one of Tennessee or Alabama's leaving
this week with two losses. Ole Miss already has two losses.
There's a good chance LSU has two losses. Hell Georgia
could have two losses after this weekend. A lot of

(05:16):
these SEC teams are going to be piling up and
be two loss teams. And I think we kind of
talked about that because so many of these teams have
to play each other. If you just kind of split
some of these games, that's you know, looked at a
success as a lot of these SEC teams. So I
think there's a good chance that we see these Big
Ten schools with only one loss, potentially some teams with
two depending on what happens in the conference title game.

(05:38):
But there's a lot more SEC teams that are going
to be two loss teams and Big ten top three
teams that have two losses.

Speaker 3 (05:44):
I think that kind of simples it down a little bit.

Speaker 2 (05:47):
But still, we've never seen a twelve team playoff before,
so we don't know how they're going to value a
one loss for a two loss team.

Speaker 1 (05:53):
So let me throw this out there to you, Mark.
We have nine, let's just say nine are still up
for grabs regardless of conference. So we have an SEC champion,
we have a Big twelve champion, we have an ACC champion,
and then a G five team. So it's four. It's
four teams if you stought them in as they currently stand.

(06:16):
It's Texas, Miami, Iowa State now a top ten team, which,
by the way, going into Morgantown and getting that win
pretty damn impressive. I'm not sure if Kansas State does that,
but we'll get into that this week. And then Boise
State is the clear favorite in the G five. So
we're basically talking about five spots here. The SEC is

(06:36):
starting to cannibalize itself. The problem is, I think because
the ACC is so weak, because the Big twelve not
so great, I think we're running into the possibility now
that at least one three loss SEC team is going
to be in this playoff.

Speaker 4 (06:57):
Yeah, I think it's definitely possible, especially you kind of
take Missouri out of the conversation. It looks like Ole
Miss now out of the conversation, or at least outside
looking in it, Definitely there's less Obviously, there's like probably
four or five seats at the table for the SEC,
and we thought that that would be kind of hard
to pick between seven or eight teams, And the way

(07:20):
it's shaking out, you can kind of probably x out
Texas A and m ole Miss and Missouri, So it
makes it a little easier, and then it probably lowers
the qualifications to get it for whatever that fourth or
fifteen will be from the SEC, whether it's a Tennessee
or a Bama or a Georgia. Obviously this week I'll
go a long way to kind of kind of putting
us there.

Speaker 1 (07:41):
So the teams on the French, we've talked about them
for weeks now. As much as you hate it, Mark,
you Dard Dams in the mix. Clemson has rebounded fantastically
since the wass to Georgia. You have to give them
a lot of credit. Kake Clubnick has has come along,
and Ellis You has snuck their way into this conversation

(08:03):
as well after that win over all miss So we're
starting to see these fringe teams that lost early or
may have not been in the in the race early,
like in Iowa State, we didn't really put them into
the big twelve tighter conversation at start, that are now
filling in these spots I guess nine to twelve, and

(08:26):
we're starting to get at least an idea of what
this field's going to look like. My question to you
guys now is we have kind of defined pretenders Michigan, USC, Missouri,
Ole misses in that mix. We have to find contenders.
If you look at the top, let's say fifteen of

(08:46):
the eight people, I think that's where all of our
playoff teams are coming from, because Boise States and there
as well. Can you make the case for any team
currently outside the top fifteen to be in the twelve
by the time we get to December. It's it's hard
to find a path for a lot of those teams,

(09:07):
isn't it.

Speaker 3 (09:08):
Why not the Indiana Hoosiers, why not?

Speaker 1 (09:11):
Why not?

Speaker 2 (09:12):
Coach SIGs I mean golden opportunity Saturday, I mean almost
a touchdown favorite. I think it's like six and a
half against a pretty solid Nebraska squad. They win, that,
they're going to be favored every game, including against Michigan.
It's pretty crazy to say that out loud, but every
game except at Ohio State. If they find their way
to eleven and one, there's a chance that they're in

(09:33):
the Big Ten Title Game potentially, you know, given what
happens with some of these other teams, So all they
had to do really is make it to the Big
Ten title game, and who knows what happens at that rate.

Speaker 3 (09:44):
It'd be kind of funny if they make it.

Speaker 2 (09:45):
Though, and you have like a like we had last
year with like a Michigan against in Inaiowa, good conference
against a bad conference type thing. But them and I
think another team like SMU, they rebounded from what we
viewed as kind of a slow start, but that loss
against BYU looks a whole lot better each and every week.

Speaker 3 (10:05):
They're another team.

Speaker 2 (10:06):
They just got to make it to the AEC title
game and club Saton like hat tip to them. I
think we all kind of anointed them as dead after
week one against Georgia. They've rebounded fantastically. Like you said, Joe,
I'd probably even put them above Miami right now with
the way that they've been playing.

Speaker 3 (10:22):
But I think that's a kind of three horse race
there in the ACC.

Speaker 2 (10:25):
And I think you got to give SMUs and props
and help the pitt Panthers are sitting there undefeated in
the SEC as well.

Speaker 1 (10:32):
Pat Doozy's got himself an offense that's something you'd ever hear.
All right, let's do a little bit of rapid fire
with odds over at Draftings Sportsbook. A few teams that
are plus money to make the playoff. I'll give you,
guys a give me fifteen seconds or so on each
of these teams and to see where they stand. Let's
start Tennessee's plus one fifteen to make the college football Playoff.

(10:55):
Can they make it? Yes? Or no?

Speaker 5 (10:57):
I would lean yes right now.

Speaker 4 (11:00):
Well, they probably only have two games left, but I'm
worried about them losing with Bama at home this week,
and I'm all on Tennessee, which means you should probably
bet Bama. And I'm and at Georgia later on in
the year. That's a tough one, as well, if you
win one of those, you're definitely in. And we just
said that there's a chance and three lost team gets in.
I don't think it's crazy to say nine and three

(11:21):
Tennessee gets in, So I would probably lean.

Speaker 5 (11:25):
Towards yes if you may make a pick there.

Speaker 1 (11:28):
If would you bet yes on Tennessee right now?

Speaker 2 (11:31):
I think they can if they do if they are
a nine and three team, I don't think they will
because I think you look at the wins who did
they beat in that path they lost to Arkansas, will
see what they end up and then they would lose
to it most likely Alabama and Georgia. I don't think
nine and three Tennessee team would get in the can
they make it for sure? If they split this week
or split this in Georgia, go ten and two, they'll

(11:52):
be in. But at nine and three, I probably have
them on the outside rather than you know, a couple
of these other SEC teams and probably have at least
one better win than them.

Speaker 1 (12:01):
The odds makers are telling you something about they value
the SEC compared to the rest of the competition. Because
I want to lump all these teams together Ole miss
plus one fifty LSU plus one thirty A and M
plus one twenty five, and they have Missouri out there
at plus three forty to make the playoff. Is it
worth hitting the plus money price on any of those
teams to make the playoff right.

Speaker 4 (12:23):
Now, I'm actually surprised that A and M's is that low.
I would lean know there LSU. I think I wish
I would love to go back and find the clip
from three or four weeks ago, from when no one
wanted to talk about LSU. I was like, I think
I think there's a chance we might be having to

(12:43):
talk about them if they win any game they're not
supposed to. And they went out and they did it
against Ole Miss and won one and stole one in
Death Valley there and overtime. They have a tough schedule,
but if I guess not really though, it's only really
these the two big games at Texas A and M
and then Bama at home. Both of those games, I
don't think LSU is a bigger underdog than I don't know,

(13:05):
three points in either of those games. So I think
against Alabama at home, they're probably a similar similar situation
to where they were against Ole Miss and at Texas
A and M. Probably like three point dog again there
as well, So I LSU. I think it's something we
have to talk about. Darren Nusmeyer is one of the
best players in the country.

Speaker 1 (13:24):
He truly is.

Speaker 4 (13:25):
That defense is not very good. That'll probably get them
in the long run. Whether that holds the out of
the playoff or not, I don't know, but nuss Meyer
is an absolute stud.

Speaker 2 (13:35):
Yeah, LSU would be my pick in that scenario as well. However,
I do think there is a chance that they get
upset this week. Sam Pittman has been great as an underdog.
I mean it could be, you know, a kind of
fall flat spot and that number is screaming everyone taking
LSU coming off that game at an unranked Arkansas team,
So big test this week. But I think you can

(13:58):
make an argument from that LSU or sorry, the USC
game in week one to now, they're one of.

Speaker 3 (14:04):
The two to three most improved team in comfortaball.

Speaker 1 (14:07):
Definitely, I'll throw you guys a long shot here because
they're going to be in the spotlight this weekend and
the people who claim they know what value is are
gonna maybe say this is the spot where maybe they
make a run. And it's crazy to even mention them
in the conversation at four and two in the ACC

(14:31):
But opportunities bound for Louisville. The plus fourteen hundred to
make the playoff the longest odds right now of any
team that's listed to make the playoff. When you see
their schedule, it's Miami, it's Clemson, it's pit They have
all the opportunities in front of them. When you're looking
at this from a long term perspective. Any takers on

(14:56):
the Cardinals, they're out of the top twenty five right now,
but they have all the teams they have to beat
in front of them. Any takers on Louisville.

Speaker 3 (15:07):
I'd say no.

Speaker 2 (15:08):
For me, I do think there's a chance that they
do win this weekend, but you highlighted it too. They
still have to go to Clemson, who knows what pit is,
and then they still have a rivalry game at Kentucky,
who knows what Kentucky's going to be at that stage.
By that game is never a cake walk. They already
have a conference loss. I think one of the things
we talked about with SMU at the beginning of the year,

(15:29):
their schedule was so favorable and why we like them
so much. They have a much easier schedule the rest
of the way than Louisville.

Speaker 3 (15:36):
I think it's an.

Speaker 2 (15:37):
Uphill climate and you're asking them most likely to win
either this one or the Clemson game to even have
a chance, and I think splitting those it's going to
be hard.

Speaker 3 (15:47):
Let alone win both.

Speaker 1 (15:50):
Yeah.

Speaker 4 (15:50):
I tried to get in on the Louisville train after
the Notre Dame loss because they outgained them. It was
really just like fumble luck in that game that really
allowed under Dame to win and pull way in my opinion.

Speaker 5 (16:01):
And then the last two weeks is not impressing.

Speaker 4 (16:03):
And you lose at home to SMUs as I think
like a touchdown favorite in that game, and then even
against Virginia, you win that game, but you don't come
close to cover and the spread there, So I don't
I haven't really been all that impressed enough by Louisville
over the last two weeks, even independent of the Notre
Dame laws.

Speaker 1 (16:21):
Let's talk about a team real quick. They actually have
longer odds listed than than louis Vote the moment, and
maybe better opportunity in front of them because they're the
two ranked opponents left in their schedule are at home,
Iowa stayed in UCF. I'm talking about the Utah Utes.
Cam Rising is officially done for the season. He's going
to explore what the fifteenth year of eligibility next year.

(16:46):
But the quarterback change actually helps them because if you
watch them last week against Arizona State, cam Rison just
couldn't move, couldn't move, couldn't throt the ball. It was
just all sorts of a disaster. Isaac Wilson's coming in
and look, the Big Twelve I think is still wide open.
Iowa State is a very solid team. Do I think
they run the table? I don't know. Does Utah with

(17:10):
an actual quarterback who can move and two home games
against top fifteen teams, do they have any value to
make the college football playoffs?

Speaker 3 (17:20):
I don't think so.

Speaker 2 (17:21):
I think Utah's kind of in that, not to the
highest extent that Oklahoma State's gotten, but kind of just
the like wow, disappointing season. I feel like one of
these upstart teams in the Big Twelve has a better
chance byu Iowa State, Hell Texas Tech sitting here at
five and one, three to zero in the conference and
not any games on the schedule that you point to

(17:43):
and be like, oh, yeah, automatic loss. I take one
of those three schools and definitely include Kansas State in
there as well before I'm taking BYU or excuse me
taking Utah. I just think it's a bit of a
lost season and they were so reliant on Cam Rising
coming into the season on the offensive side.

Speaker 3 (18:04):
I just don't think Wilson's there yet. He might be
there someday, but I don't think.

Speaker 2 (18:08):
That he's good enough yet to lead this team to
a Big Twelve title with having two losses already and
only one win.

Speaker 4 (18:14):
Yeah, the Big Twelve team I would look at is
Kansas State at this point. I still think Kansas State
is the team that's gonna end up winning that conference.
And I know that that's probably maybe a hot take
at this point with how good Iowa State's playing and
Kansas State does have to go to Iowa State, But
outside of that, like kens State should win their next
four game or five games leading up to that game,

(18:36):
and if they do that, they probably.

Speaker 5 (18:38):
Get into the Big Twelve championship.

Speaker 4 (18:40):
Looking around at the carnage of the Big Twelve, I
think they probably get in with two losses into that
championship game, and then I mean, yeah, they probably have
to win win it at that point, win that conference championship.

Speaker 5 (18:51):
But if you go to the Big twelve championship with.

Speaker 4 (18:52):
One loss and then you lose, if they were to
win out in the regular season, I think they could
potentially find their way in as an at large team
if enough chaos happened around them.

Speaker 1 (19:02):
And I have to take you for a second, what
ky State loses this weekend.

Speaker 4 (19:07):
Yeah, I'm not on that game, and it would be
classic May because I was a week early in the
Lake West Virginia last weekend. It's basically the same exact spot.
So I'm not going to bet them because they screwed
me last week. So yeah, they'll probably win.

Speaker 1 (19:22):
So let's get into our bets for Week eight. There's
two big games that really matter that are going to
shake up the college football playoff landscape just a little bit.
Texas and Georgia in Austin with Game Day going there.
That's the primetime game. Then you of Alabama and Tennessee
see of Alabama as the road favorite in Knoxville, and
then you have Texas as the home favorite against Georgia.

(19:47):
This about Georgia, Texas Georgia. If they start even froom.
I guess fifteen percent better than how they did against Alabama.
They probably win that game. The start just screwed them
so much where it was so hard for them to recover.
If they play a full four quarters, maybe we're talking

(20:09):
about number one versus number two this weekend in Austin.
So if we get a complete Georgia performance, which I
think we will, I think they'll be motivated to prove themselves.
Can they beat Texas in Austin and kind of make
that statement that they were supposed to make in Tuscaloosa

(20:30):
a few weeks ago.

Speaker 3 (20:32):
I'm saying hook them. I love Texas this week.

Speaker 2 (20:36):
I might just be a Georgia hater at this point,
but I think they're getting a little bit too much
credit for the G next to their name. I think
if they were Missouri or Texas, A and M or
something teams, people want to be looking at them with
this type of respect.

Speaker 3 (20:50):
One to five against the spread this year as well.

Speaker 2 (20:52):
Not a dog fight last week against Mississippi State, but
only when that game by ten, the same Mississippi State
team that lost forty one seventeen to Toledo.

Speaker 3 (21:02):
I just think that they don't have dudes on this roster.

Speaker 2 (21:04):
Sure, they have a handful of good players, but I
don't think this is a scary Georgia team like we've
seen over the past three four years under Kirby. I
think this Texas roster is a lot more closer than
these past Georgia rosters than the current Georgia roster is
to their past Georgia rosters. And I was a big
hypocrite last week coming on here and picking Ohio, stayed
on the road, picking Ole Miss on the road when

(21:26):
I'm the guy who's like I believe in home field
advantage of most in college football out of anyone. So
I'm not gonna get caught doing that again this week.
That's why I really like Texas. I think they win
this game by a touchdown. I just think that they're
better at every single spot. Kirby might have a few
tricks up a sleeve on defense, but Sark has proven
me wrong, has become a really, really damn good head
football coach.

Speaker 4 (21:48):
I don't have any take on this. I'm not going
to take a side. I think it's gonna be a
close game. I have no idea I'll take the over.
I think that it being a close game will only
help the over and I think that there are probably
legitimate concerns about Georgia's defense at this point with a
couple other I mean, Mississippi State's not good at all,
so giving up thirty one there is concerning I will

(22:09):
say that Georgia offense, I think is legit. I do
think that the Georgia offense is very good. I think
what we've seen from them since pretty much after the
tragedy of the first twenty minutes of the Alabama game ended,
that offense has been pretty unstoppable since then.

Speaker 5 (22:26):
So I think the offense will show up.

Speaker 4 (22:27):
I mean, Texas defense has been really good this year,
but you do have to ask yourself how much of
that is, Like what who's the best offense that Texas
has faced so far? Is it Michigan with Davis Warren
or Oklahoma with whoever their backup was last week?

Speaker 5 (22:42):
I don't know who it is.

Speaker 4 (22:44):
So I'm a little bit I'm not skeptical on the
Texas offense. We know what those guys are. I mean,
we know what quinn Ewers is. Obviously Sarcus sark calling
plays there, and Isaiah Bond's one of the best players
in the country at wide receiver there Atbama transfers, so
he had a big against Georgia last year with Bama.
I expect probably is a similar result here with Bond
having a big day again. But I'm buying less into

(23:08):
the results with the Texas defense because I do think
that it's going to be possible to get to them,
because we saw that Texas defense got to a ton
last season. Not to say that they weren't good, but
I think in a big game like this, we generally
see the score and get pushed up. So fifty five
and a half, I would bet this is probably up
to like sixty. So I think this is going to
be like a thirty five thirty, you know, thirty eight

(23:29):
to thirty five type of game.

Speaker 1 (23:31):
Not so fast, my friend, I love the under in
this game. I'm I'm absolutely buying stock into Texas's defense. Look,
we've had a long enough sample size now of seven weeks. Yes,
I know Texas hasn't played the toughest of opponents, and
I know that defense travels. That didn't exactly get me

(23:54):
into a good spot with Ohio State and Penn State
last week. But I really do think in a game
like this and look that Georgia first quarter struggle still
in the back of your mind too, Right, what if
they come out flat again? There's potential for that. We
need to get what eight touchdowns in this game for

(24:15):
the over to hit. I think we see more like
four or five. I think this is a look, it's
not a big ten game, but I think maybe a
big ten style game. I think maybe a twenty four
to twenty either way is where we're headed for this one.
I'll buy into Texas's defense, and I think that Georgia

(24:36):
has a little bit of a statement to make. They
got a little bit of a chip on their shoulder
for the first time in a while, and what better
way to do than to have a solid defensive performance
against quin yours who I think I would trust it
over Carson Beck at the moment in a big game.
So I probably lean Texas straight up. But something's telling

(24:58):
me I think this is a lower scoring game just
because of how Texas's defense is played. And look, Georgia, Georgia,
you got to make a statement at some point, right,
Maybe I just I've been kind of underwhelmed with them,
and I feel like this is the game they've been
they've been loading up for since the Alabama game.

Speaker 5 (25:17):
I struggle to argue.

Speaker 4 (25:18):
I don't want to argue about anything, So I'm just
gonna look dumb when my picks wrong, because that's my
life in college football this year. But when we say
I know they haven't played anybody.

Speaker 5 (25:28):
It's it's real.

Speaker 4 (25:29):
I mean those Texas defense that's argumby Colorado State, utsa
u El Monroe, Mississippi State Davis Warren Michigan, and an
Oklahoma team on their backup quarterback in Week six. Like,
I just think that we don't know what Texas defense is.
I'm willing to say the offense is fantastic, no questions here.

(25:50):
So that's why I lean towards the over. But and
I think that both sides have shown that. You know,
even with that your statement about Georgia not showing up
in the first quarter that kind of helped over went
with Alabama. They were giving them short fields, they were
turning the ball over. It ended up turning into a
forty one to thirty four game. So I think it's
gonna be very similar to the Alabama game, not in

(26:10):
terms of maybe twenty eight nothing into a forty one
to thirty four game, but I think it's gonna be
the second half.

Speaker 5 (26:16):
The score you see it will be similar. But I'm wrong.

Speaker 1 (26:19):
I'm ready to kick the Texas Is back into overdrive.
I don't know if we can officially declare them back.
They've been They've been back.

Speaker 5 (26:28):
For the playoff last year.

Speaker 1 (26:30):
Yeah, but I think in terms of the National Championship, Look,
you can escalate this one pretty quickly. I think Texas
wins this game. I know Quin Yours is not the
better NFL prospect than Carson Beck, but he's He's a
college quarterback that just wins ball games, and there's something

(26:52):
about him and the intangibles that he carries that I
think makes a difference in this type of game. Look,
I would lean Tech if you ask me to pick
who wins this game. But I think this is kind
of a low scoring game, and maybe we see Yours
make a Heisman moment type play. I'm not saying he'll
have a Heisman moment because he did miss two games,

(27:13):
but a Heisman moment esque play where he gets involved
and makes a huge play and wins this game for Texas.

Speaker 4 (27:20):
I have a take a little bit on Heisman moments.
I think they don't exist anymore. Really, I think we
usually just picked the guy with the best stats now,
like unless they come from a situation where they can't win,
like Jayden Daniels and Caleb Williams the last two years
they won Heisman's at like eight and four and nine
and three because their stats were just really high. I
think we just have become so stat rich that it's hard, Like, yeah,

(27:44):
Jalen Milroe had a Heisman moment and we all freaked
out about it and made him the Heisman favorite. But realistically,
when he throws for thirty two hundred passing yards and
cam Ward as fifty four hundred or whatever it's gonna be,
we're not gonna be saying Jalen Milroe' is the Heisman
when he has two thousand less passing yards, then a
guy was so much better numbers. I think the whole
Heisman moment thing was like a twenty ten, you know,

(28:06):
two thousand and seven Tim Tebow era like staple where
we had like four national games on where now every
game's televised. Like, I think it's just comes down to it.
I guess this year is gonna be different because it's
like Johnty's a running back from a small school, and
Travis Hunter plays both ways, so it's not just quarterback
first quarterback for his quarterback.

Speaker 5 (28:24):
So maybe this year's a little different. But I was
just a little ran.

Speaker 2 (28:27):
I wanted to go on it's a week award, like,
there's this point, Yeah, it is Milroe. I think I
said it after the Georgia game. I said, Milroe is
sitting there plus two twenty five. I said, there's no
doubt in my mind he will not be the favorite
again at some point in this season. And I remember
Joe you said, well, he's probably got a cushion playing

(28:48):
Vandy this week, but then.

Speaker 1 (28:51):
Just like, look, yeah he did have a cushion.

Speaker 2 (28:54):
And I think even going into into that week, Johnty
was still like fourteen to one or something, and now
he's all the way up there at plus one sixty.
All takes is for him to knock on wood that
it doesn't happen, But if he gets banged up or something.

Speaker 3 (29:06):
Someone else takes over.

Speaker 2 (29:07):
Travis Hunter has already dipped down in the odds because
he missed some time last week. Like it's such a
week to week award, it kind of just comes down
to you got to stay in that top four to
five and just get to the last two or three
games of the season to keep those stats going up.

Speaker 1 (29:21):
I also don't think you can have a true Heisman
moment until the middle of the season. At least you
can't have You can't have a Heisman moment in September.
So that the plays that cam Wore had made against
Virginia Tech, some of them were like Heisman asked, like
if that, if that's a national TV in November and
Miami's still playing for a national championship bid and and

(29:45):
and the ACC title, then those are plays that are
on the highlight reel instantly, right, But you can't have
it in September when there's still so much margin forever.
So I think, look, yours isn't in the conversation because
he missed time. But I think in terms of like
a what we what we think in our minds as
a Heisman moment, I think maybe shows up at the

(30:07):
end of this game, not saying he's gonna get into
the Heisman mix. Some talking head is probably gonna if
Texas wins, probably gonna insert themselves into the dialogue. I
just don't see it happening. Speaking of Heisman nods, nko
Iamaiava has plummeted, and I know that's a rough subject

(30:28):
for a few people here. This is kind of Tennessee's
last stand at home against Alabama. They have not looked
good that offense. It's kind of it's flipped in the
opposite directions to them the complete one eighty of the
strengths of that team. Two years ago, it was the offense.

(30:50):
Now it's the defense, and the offense is struggling in
the game momentum, and they barely beat Florida last week.
They had to go to overtime to win that game.
Tennis See rightfully, So I think, in my mind is
a three point dog. I think Mark, you mentioned earlier
that you're on Tennessee, so I'll start with you. What
do you see in this game and this matchup that

(31:11):
potentially favors the volunteers.

Speaker 2 (31:14):
Yeah.

Speaker 4 (31:14):
I just thought that Bam struggled a lot with some
of the kind of pressure that South Carolina was bringing.

Speaker 5 (31:19):
And that's what Tennessee is really good at this year.

Speaker 4 (31:22):
Their front four is really really good, and I think
that they're going to be able to get after Milroe
and kind of be able to contain him in a
better way than we've seen teams like Georgia be able
to do. So it really comes down to the defense.
I feel like anything I'm getting from the offense is
a bonus. Like I think they'll get seventeen to twenty points.
I think I would lean under in this game before

(31:42):
I would before I would go towards the over here,
but I leaned Tennessee. It's not a confident, it's not
all that confident of a play, but it's a slight
lean towards Tennessee as a dog.

Speaker 1 (31:52):
I love the under in this game as well. I
think even better, it's similar total to what we have
at Georgia Texas. I think Tennessee defense is fantastic. And look,
this is good. I'll share some personal gambling pain with you, Mark.
I didn't have a great week last week, and it
started with Alabama in the first half. They're up fourteen

(32:12):
to nothing with about a minute and a half left,
and all of a sudden, they let in this fourth
down touchdown in South Carolina. Mil Row just makes a
really bad decision, takes a safety, and then there's a
pick and a field goal and Alabama could not find
themselves out of a rut until the fourth quarter. You

(32:32):
can't have that in a game again against Tennessee where
the pressure is going to be relentless. So I think
watching the I guess the the final two minutes of
the second quarter and the third quarter, they struggled against
South Carolina's pass rush, and like you said, what does
Tennessee do great, they rushed the passer really well. I

(32:54):
don't see a lot of offensive fireworks in this game.
I think you'll see mistakes from mill World because he's
he's shown us that he can make those mistakes. And Nico,
as a first year starter, I think there's some possible
mistakes as well for him Against the Alabama's defense, There's
still plenty of talent there, and they're gonna scheme up

(33:17):
things to make him uncomfortable. I think this, even more
than the Texas Georgia game, is is an offensive struggle.
I was actually kind of surprised that the total sits
at fifty six and a half.

Speaker 2 (33:29):
I think the biggest thing going into this game, it's
really mind boggling to even say, but you're playing kind
of like two broken units right now, Like the Tennessee
offense seems broken, and you don't think you'd say that
under hypel and I know Saban's not there anymore, but
the Obama defense seems kind of broken in that right,
and you never thought you would utter those.

Speaker 3 (33:48):
Kind of words.

Speaker 2 (33:49):
I'm more on the page actually of going if we're
talking over under the over and think that Tennessee figures
it out and then this game just becomes a shootout,
because I still am confident that Alabama can put up
some points on this team because even th look like
last week, South Carolina's got a pretty singy defense. They
had twenty seven even in the Vanderbilt loss they had

(34:10):
thirty five points. Still they've still been able to score
the ball. They just haven't really been able to stop someone.
But I am very worried about Nico on how he's looked,
including the Kent State game.

Speaker 3 (34:20):
Which they were up big they wind up winning seventy
one nothing.

Speaker 2 (34:22):
He's not really throwing the ball, But you look at
these three SEC games, He's gone under two hundred yards
in each of them, and I think we might have
been a little too quick to annoint him and how
good he is and the potential is still there.

Speaker 3 (34:33):
But that was my main concern coming into the year.

Speaker 2 (34:35):
It's like he's still got to go into the SEC
and show up and make some plays on And the
offense look fine in Dandy the first few weeks.

Speaker 3 (34:42):
But they've really hit a wall.

Speaker 2 (34:43):
So what defense, what unit, sorry, is broken more than
the Alabama defense or the Tennessee offense, I think, really
is what it comes down to.

Speaker 3 (34:52):
But I'm gonna side with the home team.

Speaker 2 (34:53):
I think Tennessee wins this one at home, and I
think we get into a bit of a track meet.
Not quite fifty to forty nine like two years ago,
but something in the high thirties potentially.

Speaker 1 (35:04):
So let's go ahead, Mark.

Speaker 5 (35:08):
I'm talking on mute.

Speaker 4 (35:09):
Tennessee is also one of the toughest places to play
in the country. It feels like it does feel I'm
not someone who I feel like brings up homefield advantage
enough maybe, but I do think we've seen Tennessee in
these big games play such a fact. I mean, think
about two years ago against Alabama. I'll never forget. I
was at Philly's Braves anal ds walked walked, uh walked
to Xfinity Live and caught the second half of Bama

(35:31):
Tennessee and I don't know if I've seen a crazier
environment than Tennessee in that that that that stadium that day,
it was pretty crazy.

Speaker 2 (35:38):
That's one of my top five favorite college football games ever,
just even everything that went into it was that was
an awesome game.

Speaker 5 (35:45):
Jalen Hyatt.

Speaker 1 (35:47):
Yeah, So let's get into a handful of these other
games that that are of note in Week eight, the
first being on Friday night. Look, if you're a college
football fan, you know exactly what this situation is. A
number two ranked team going into West la Fayette, Indiana
to play the Purdue boiler Makers. It makes absolutely no sense.

(36:11):
But it was a graveyard for Iowa and it was
a graveyard for Ohio State in the last six years
as the number two team. I believe they beat a
number three team as well. Now, different coaching staff, but
Purdue showed life took Illinois to overtime last week in Champagne, Oregon.
The schedule maker is really scroogey here. You play a

(36:32):
Friday night against Michigan State at home, you stay home
to play Ohio State big game, your biggest game of
the season yet, and then you got to get to
get to go on a plane over two time zones,
and let's just say it, West Lafayette, Indiana doesn't exactly
get the juices flown if you're coming off Oregon Ohio State,

(36:52):
a top three game, Purdue live dog, I don't think
is the right description. Purdue to cover. The twenty seven
and a half is absolutely in play here. It's a
spot play. Even before you talk about the graveyard for
number two teams recently in West Lafayette, I just it

(37:14):
screams let down for Oregon and Purdue. You know they're
gonna be up for it. And it's a short week
for the Ducks too, a lot of travel. Do we even?
I guess I'll get a little creative here and say,
does the Purdue first half money line have a little
bit of value? Given that the situation at hand with Oregon?

Speaker 4 (37:33):
I think produe is terrible, So I I think this
is college football. I think Oregon probably beats him by
a billion. But I would say that Purdue has a
new freshman quarterback who was really impressive last year against Illinois,
and he was running all over the place, so he's
a bit of a runner on the ground. But yeah,
don't I think this Purdue team lost fifty two to

(37:55):
six to Wisconsin. So what I will say is I'm
happy with Purdue that they made that game a game
with Illinois last week because I think Illinois it was
just like a classic in between spot for Illinois. And
I love Illinois this week to bounce back now that
everybody thinks they stink because they almost lost Purdue.

Speaker 5 (38:13):
Michigan stinks offensively.

Speaker 4 (38:15):
I love Illinois that they're getting points at home there
against Michigan, So thank you to Purdue for that.

Speaker 2 (38:21):
Yeah, I think Purdue has the juices to maybe make
this one interesting. But as Joe was kind of touching
on at the beginning, it's more so just about the
spot where Oregon, you know, biggest wine, one of, if
not the biggest win of the season so far in
all of college football. Now you gotta travel on the road.
I remember Matt Rule said it a couple of weeks
ago in the post game speech. It's like, let's get

(38:43):
the hell out of West afaiatt Indiana. Biggest game for
Purdue of the season at home. You know, it's all
those kind of circumstances adding up. But what Oregon team
shows up, Like if Oregon shows up and plays to
their capability they can win this game by forty to
fifty themselves, and if they do do that, I think

(39:03):
that justifies them more as a potential top team in
the country. But if they come and fall flat like
Alabama did against Vanderbilt a few weeks ago, who knows
what happens. We never thought we would see that you
can't run anything out in college football, but I definitely
think that plus twenty seven and a half.

Speaker 3 (39:19):
Is a look.

Speaker 2 (39:19):
Kind of hope it gets up to twenty eight and
a half. Give me the four touchdowns there, but be
tuned in on Friday night.

Speaker 4 (39:26):
Can I ask you guys a question real fast, just
a side how is why is Oklahoma favored against anybody?

Speaker 5 (39:35):
Right now?

Speaker 4 (39:38):
This has nothing to do with what the game we
were just talking about. I wanted to bring it up
before I forgot about it. Oklahoma plays a weird fill
advantage twelve forty five, weird weird.

Speaker 5 (39:48):
Start time there.

Speaker 2 (39:48):
I think the defense is still somewhat legit, and I
don't think South Carolina's offense is really scaring and anyone
that could be like, yeah, and seven game or something.

Speaker 4 (40:00):
I'm doing something I hate, and it's betting against a
team rather than betting on a team. I'm definitely not
betting on South Carolina on Saturday. I'm betting against Oklahoma.
That team. Just to talk about not having dudes, that
team has one.

Speaker 5 (40:15):
Dude on it.

Speaker 4 (40:16):
It's Danny Stutsman. He's a linebacker. He's gonna get drafted
next year in like the top forty six. Besides him,
I don't know if they've got a single other dude
on that roster. They really just do not jump off
the screen. They don't play with any sort of heart
at all. If you don't if you can't get up
for the Red River rivalry last week against Texas, they're
going to get up after losing thirty four to three,

(40:38):
and like, come home, You're coming home to a home
field environment.

Speaker 5 (40:42):
Are the fans gonna be excited? You just lost thirty
four to three your rival with the state fair like
you're getting up for South Carolina at twelve forty five, Like,
I don't know.

Speaker 2 (40:52):
At least they locked in their head coach to a
six year extension before the season.

Speaker 5 (40:56):
He's a moron.

Speaker 1 (40:57):
He's I'd like to get it back to Purdue for
a second. I'm I'm very willing to stick my neck
out here. I'm looking at these prices. First quarter money
line plus four fifty five, first half money line plus
nine hundred is purely a spot play. Forget everything I
said about the number two teams going to Purdue. Oregon

(41:21):
is destined to be tired, to have a letdown here.
And look, Dylan Gabriel against Michigan State did not look
good in the red zone, had some first half struggles,
had some turnovers that looked they played up to the
matchup against Ohio State. But it's not like Dylan Gabriel
has been perfect. Oregon's had some struggles over the first

(41:43):
few weeks of the season leading into the Ohio State game,
and there's gonna be so much juice on the produced sideline.
That and belief that Illinois game. Yeah they lost it,
but the fact that there's there's belief now if you
watch them play against wisconsonant or Nebraska, there's no belief there.

(42:03):
But now they have that that that little bit of
improvement that Ryan Walter as the head coach, can can
go into the locker room this week and say, this
is this is our time to shine, this is the
national spotlight. Number two in the country is coming here.
This is a graveyard for number two teams. I don't
know if they win it outright, but Dan they they
could be really frisky in the first half. And look,

(42:25):
I'm willing to take pretty much any angle on this.
The plus seven and a half on the first quarter spread,
their plus sixteen and a half on the on the
first half spread. I think Oregon wins this game. Man,
I love everything about the first half, first quarter props
about the boiler Makers.

Speaker 2 (42:43):
You're either gonna be a genius or this is all
over all takes exposed and it's for absolute.

Speaker 1 (42:51):
Absolutely, but this is what you get in college football,
right like these We're gonna if so if if this
happens and Purdue is tied or in front or down
by like two at halftime, everybody's gonna hop on Twitter
and say, oh, we should have saw this coming. It's
the letdown spot of the century. Like to me, it

(43:11):
just feels like Oregon got a really raw deal from
the schedule makers in this one, having the play Ohio
State and then on Friday, and then on top of that,
they come back home and they have Illinois. Like this
is you name the type of spot in college football,
let down sandwich whatever you like here, Oregon fits the mold.

(43:33):
It just it feels almost too good of a spot play.
But I'm willing to take the risk here, at least
first half. I don't know, I won't go full game,
but maybe the spread. But I think that the first
quarter in first half with Purdue, there's a lot of
value to be had there if you're willing to to
back the underdog to go ahead.

Speaker 5 (43:54):
I've got a spot play.

Speaker 4 (43:55):
It's a little bit similar to for that for you guys,
and it's it's just it's just a coaching mismatch. In
my opinion, it's Kentucky Florida. I know Florida hung tough
last week against Tennessee and ended up losing the game,
but played way better than anybody thought they would.

Speaker 5 (44:12):
I think that was like a last gas from Florida. There.
I'm going with Kentucky.

Speaker 4 (44:16):
I think you look at the last two years with
Stoops against Billy Napier, Stoops has won both games by
double digits, and I think this is probably the worst
Florida team of the Billy Napier era of those three teams,
So that's kind I'm not really I'm probably relying too
much on the coaching mismatch there. But I remember watching
the game the last two years, and I know Beef
tweeted at me about one of the games yesterday when

(44:39):
Ray Davis went nuts on Monday Night football.

Speaker 5 (44:42):
That was the game last year with Ray Davis owned Florida.

Speaker 4 (44:44):
But I remember watching those games and just thinking, man,
sooops is coaching circles around Billy Napier. So I kind
of like Kentucky to keep owning Florida.

Speaker 1 (44:53):
That game stinks out loud, both sides, big stinky, it's
a it's a big time stinker. I's do a little
rep and fire real quick. We mentioned Louisville a little
bit earlier. They're five point dog at home against Miami.
Do they have any chance to spring the upset?

Speaker 3 (45:08):
I say yes, yeah, for sure.

Speaker 4 (45:11):
The way Miami's playing, they could lose to Stanford or
whoever they they. You know, we already know the Mario
crystal ball. I guess is this too obvious to the
spot for Mario to lose?

Speaker 5 (45:23):
It doesn't have to be obvious.

Speaker 3 (45:26):
He's and too off the bye at Miami.

Speaker 1 (45:29):
I read too much the crystal ball spot. There's a
few of them. In November, Georgia tech wake Forest sircause
I think this is too obvious. The crystal ball spot
really like really sneaks up on you. Might be Florida
State next week.

Speaker 4 (45:46):
That would be could you imagine really disgusting if Miami
lost Florida State, that'd be nasty work.

Speaker 1 (45:54):
I want to get if let's get a few more
in here real quick. You mentioned Mark Illinois beef. Do
you have anything on Michigan Illinois.

Speaker 2 (46:02):
I think the offense kind of comes out a little
bit more balanced. I think Tuttle might be the best
guy to complete a forward pass in.

Speaker 3 (46:10):
Twenty twenty four.

Speaker 1 (46:12):
They have a chance to.

Speaker 3 (46:13):
Kind of work with him off a bye week.

Speaker 2 (46:15):
I think Michigan bounces back in that one and the
spread screaming at two with them as a three point
favorite on the road.

Speaker 4 (46:20):
There By the way, mentioned Georgia being one and five
against his bread Michigan also one in five against I'd like.

Speaker 1 (46:26):
To give a little respect to the coin respectors out
there at the G five level. I'm going to ride
the Service academies until they stop covering, which doesn't seem
like it's going to happen. This week. I'm taking Army
against East Carolina at sixteen. I'm taking Navy. I believe
there's seventeen right now against Charlotte, both teams in the
top twenty five. I look, I'm buying the fairy tale

(46:49):
that Army Navy is going to be a really meaningful
game this year.

Speaker 5 (46:53):
Which team's beating the Irish? Which are the troops?

Speaker 3 (46:58):
Dude, your resume is going to look better and better.

Speaker 5 (47:00):
I know when they when they go down three with.

Speaker 4 (47:04):
Army Navy and n I U, I want to be
right there saying, hey, is she dead him?

Speaker 5 (47:09):
Army losses.

Speaker 1 (47:13):
By the way, you mentioned the uh, the the trends
here for records against the spread, I feel like it's
mentioned that Army is six and oh against the spread,
only b YU is six and oh as well as them.
There's a bunch of five and one teams Iowa State, Vanderbilt,

(47:34):
Pittsburgh a part of that. The The one team that's
in that group is Arizona State. You talk about a
stinky letdown spot at Cincinnati noon kickoff against a defense
that is it's just gonna bludgeon you. Uh, Cam Scataboo
is an electric player, but man, that that just feels
like welcome to traveling multiple coasts. I think Cincinnati minus

(47:57):
three is a really nice play in the noon slot,
and then I like Rutgers to bounce back as Ball
UCLA stinks to have them. They're just not good and
I think it's it's pretty clear that they aren't. And
traveling through Rutgers for that Neon kick the the noon
kickoff in the travel, I think is something you can
really take advantage of this week with Rutgers, with Cincinnati.
I believe there's one more that might be in there

(48:20):
as well, But yeah, I feel like those two games.
And just to to the flip side, there's four teams
in the country that do not have a win against
the spread this year. Can you name any of them?

Speaker 2 (48:33):
Kansas is one Kansas and St.

Speaker 1 (48:37):
Nc State is the second.

Speaker 3 (48:38):
One to come.

Speaker 1 (48:41):
They did cover a game.

Speaker 2 (48:43):
Were on the the good side of a beat this
week against Ball State or.

Speaker 5 (48:49):
West Virginia. Now West Virginia is probably covered a football.

Speaker 1 (48:53):
One, one Power conference team and one mid major.

Speaker 5 (48:58):
M hm hm hmm. I don't think I have it.

Speaker 4 (49:05):
Yeah, I'm out Arizona.

Speaker 1 (49:09):
Nor North Carolina and air Force un pushed right, Yeah,
they have a push on their rests.

Speaker 3 (49:16):
Minnesota.

Speaker 2 (49:16):
I'll give my my real quick my my play of
the week out of the Big twelve Texas Tech minus
six and a half blowout Baylor and David Randa is
fired on Sunday, first Power four coach fire this season,
but him and Robert Saw the Bad Brothers are jobless,
both of them.

Speaker 5 (49:35):
Sunday, Colorado plus four at Arizona.

Speaker 4 (49:39):
I feel like Vegas keeps expecting Arizona to figure it out,
and they're just aren't.

Speaker 5 (49:45):
They're not going to figure it out.

Speaker 4 (49:46):
I think the coach that they replaced Jed Fish with
is just a moron. And Brennan, I don't think he's
ready for this job. I think he was at San
Jose State before this.

Speaker 1 (49:55):
I just don't.

Speaker 4 (49:56):
I think it was too big of a lead for
him and he looks over matched. They keeps giving them
a ton of respect every week. I mean last week
they opened like the line moved like six points towards BYU,
but it opened super respectful towards Arizona. They're one and
five against the Sprider of Colorado's covered four straight. I
just think you look at.

Speaker 1 (50:17):
Colorado's also been a little bit disrespected.

Speaker 5 (50:18):
I think yeah, and people got sick of it.

Speaker 4 (50:21):
People got sick of the Dion stuff and the Strador stuff,
and I get it, I understand. But even last year
when Arizona was a really good team down the stretch,
they played Colorado in Colorado, arizonaly won the game by
three points. They were an eight point favorite in that game.
And they struggled last year with probably a much worse
Colorado team. And this is the worse Arizona team than
than it was last year. So I'm starting to talk

(50:43):
myself in. It was not one of the first games
that I tacked on when I looked at the slate,
But the more we get on with the week, I'm
kind of talking myself more into.

Speaker 5 (50:52):
Colorado sucks to be on, like the most public team
of all time.

Speaker 1 (50:58):
I think you have a I think of somebody in
full agreement with you on that.

Speaker 5 (51:03):
Yeah, she's in with the underdogs.

Speaker 3 (51:05):
There the dogs.

Speaker 1 (51:07):
The dogs are barking. If that's not a sign, I
don't know what is. I think that's a That's a
perfect way to wrap up our Week eight preview. Boys. Uh,
let's let's hope we get two really really good classics
in the SEC and plenty of other bets. One across
the sport. I think all three of us could use
a strong winning weekend. To everyone, best of luck on
your bets. We will see you back here next week

(51:28):
for Ryan Coyle, Mark Hemry Junior. I am Joe Tansey.
Festive luck on your bets. We will see you next
week