December 5, 2024 • 47 mins
Joe Tansey and Mark Henry Jr. dive into #CFB Championship Weekend as the conference championship games take center stage before the #CollegeFootballPlayoff begins.
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:01):
Fox Sports Radio Gambler. Fox Sports Radio in Philly is
The Gambler. The Gambler, Philly's home for all things sports gambling.
(00:27):
Hello everyone, to welcome on the Conference Championship version of
the Big Brains. Here myself, just Sansey and Mark Henry
Junior taking you through all nine of the conference championship
games this weekend. Two of them obviously massive ones in
Penn State, Oregon in the Big Ten and Georgia, Texas
in the SEC. I'd say Clemson SMU and the a
(00:49):
CC is probably right on that like one A one
B line as well because of its significance to the playoff.
And let's get right into it, Mark, because that's the
big debate going into these games on Saturday, is how
exactly do these results affect the playoffs. I think the
first and foremost thing is in the ACC. Is it
just straight up SMU or Alabama. No.
Speaker 2 (01:14):
I do think if SMU loses a game similar to
how we saw TCU lose the Big Twelve Championship a
couple a couple of years ago against Oklahoma State, I
think it was either they barely missed the late touchdown
or Oklahoma State barely got a late touchdown to win.
It was one or the other. Yeah, it came down
(01:35):
right to the wire. It was within one possession, was
a close game the whole way. If it's something like that,
I think SMU is probably fine. But if SMU loses
and it doesn't feel like that, I don't even know
if it necessarily has a point total attached to it,
it might be anything over a possession. I think if
(01:55):
that's the case, BAM is in for sure. But the
books now we're telling you BAM is around like minus
three ninety five, which is obviously a lot higher.
Speaker 3 (02:04):
Than SMU's money line this weekend, So.
Speaker 2 (02:07):
That would tell you the books at this point are
thinking that it's going to be Baman no matter what.
Speaker 1 (02:14):
So I think the important thing here is SMU wins
and they're in regardless. We don't have this conversation. This
is kind of just a parachute conversation. If Clemson does
beat SMU and then all of a sudden, Clemson is
in the field, probably the weakest of the twelve teams
in the field. For being honest, maybe the Big Twelve
champion is but Clemson is definitely ranked in the bottom quadrant,
(02:37):
and somehow they end up getting a top four seed
out of it. So how do we look at this game?
Because I think it it's not the most eye catching
game because it could be a route SMU could just
completely blow the doors off of Clemson and play really
well like they have the last two weeks and we're
not even having this discussion by halftime on Saturday night.
(02:58):
But with a I think the spreads only what two
and a half points with in favor of SMU. Is
that just the books just not respecting SMU as much.
Point totals down to two over unders fifty five and
a half. Like, how do we because if you look,
if you've watched these two teams, SMEU is very clearly
the better team than Clemson and it's not even remotely close.
Clemson hasn't been able to sniff their best opponents all season,
(03:24):
and we just saw them lose by three points to
South Carolina. So is it just as simple as SMU
is the better team, They'll get in and we won't
have to have this conversation.
Speaker 3 (03:34):
I'm kind of of two minds about it, where.
Speaker 2 (03:39):
The SMU thing, I there's part of me that has
some pity for them if they get left out there's
part of me that I tweeted out kind of before
the rankings came out that SMU should be safe with
a loss next week.
Speaker 3 (03:53):
But I don't think that that's.
Speaker 2 (03:54):
Going to be the case. But here we are, and
now I'm starting to get a little that annoyed at
the pre crying for SMU going on all over the place,
and it's like, you know what, you play a Clemson
team that's not very good.
Speaker 3 (04:08):
They got whooped by Louisville.
Speaker 2 (04:10):
They lost thirty four to three to a Georgia team
that lost to an Alabama team that you're arguing you
should be in over if you lose. So not to
do college football math, it's not exactly the most linear
thing all the time. But I do think that that's
worth bringing up, that Clemson is. I don't think Clemson's
one of the twenty best teams in football this year
(04:32):
so across the country. So they might win the game,
they might get in, You're right, I think they would
be just about the worst team in the field, if
not the worst.
Speaker 3 (04:38):
Team in the field.
Speaker 2 (04:40):
And with SMU, I'm starting I heard Brice kind of say,
your SMU, your playoff game is this.
Speaker 3 (04:48):
Weekend, and I kind of agree.
Speaker 2 (04:51):
There's part of me that's kind of moving to there
and kind of feeling less sympathy the longer we go
here and the more I'm hearing people cry about it.
Speaker 3 (05:00):
That's fair, That's kind of where I'm landing.
Speaker 1 (05:02):
No, I think that's fair because everybody's starting the pre
built in excuses right to say, well, SMU should be in,
or they shouldn't be in, whatever it may be, just
go out and win the damn game, and I think
they will. I think the two points spread is actually
I think that's actually incredibly disrespectful. Now, look, they haven't
played the best opposition in the last two weeks in
Virginia and Cal, but they've shown that the defense is
(05:24):
getting better the offense clearly. Look if they had started
the season with Kevin Jennings at quarterback instead of Preston Stone,
we're potentially talking about an undefeated SMU team, and still
their only loss is by a few points to BYU.
It's still a remarkable season. But if you saw the
way the committee treated in Miami in Tuesday's rankings, look,
(05:48):
it's it's very clear the ACC in the Big twelve
have no favor and if you they're kind of right.
If you look at the broad the broader picture here
of the four conferences, the SEC is I think the best.
There's no like elite elite conference this year that you
could say this one's clearly better than the rest. The
Big Ten has a very very solid top four, and
(06:11):
then you know the rest is kind of man and
then the ACC. You know, Syracuse is getting better, I
guess helps their overall totality. But the thing you run
into is not all these teams are playing each other
because the conferences are now so big, because the alignment
is a thing. So now you're running into this issue
(06:32):
of well, yeah, at the top of these conferences are good,
but how many of these teams have played each other?
And you look at clemson schedule. They played Louisville and
got run off the field at home in a game
they needed to win because they were climbing back up
to the fringe of the playoff. At that point, to me,
it just feels like SMU, they're playing the better football,
they are the better team. I think two points is
(06:54):
just wildly disrespectful.
Speaker 2 (07:03):
Talking on mute, I just realized there, I'm having a
weird fan verse kind of gambling weekend coming up here,
and I'll get into that when we talk about some
of the seeding potential stuff and notre names involvement and
all that in the five to six seed. But putting
that aside, on Monday, I was setting up my bets
for the week, and SMU was setting up to be
(07:24):
one of my favorite bets of the whole week, whether
that be you know, Packers on Thursday night, SMU Arizona State.
I had a couple favorite bets that I kind of
had labeled, and that's when I saw Beef Ryan Coyle
send in you know, the prices on the playoff on Twitter.
That's where I saw Bama was plus one hundred early
on Monday morning, and I immediately started firing away text
(07:45):
to Tanzy and Beef like, am I a crazy person?
Or is there any difference between betting that SMU money
line and betting Bama to make the playoff at plus
one hundred? Within twenty four hours that bet was at
minus two sixty five. Now it's sitting around like my
three ninety five or something like that. So I feel
like I kind of made my SMU bet already with
(08:07):
Bama to make the playoffs. So I'm not gonna double dip.
I'm rooting for SMU. If you're asking me to play,
I would make if I didn't get that bet in,
it's absolutely SMU minus too. I wouldn't worry about the
money line. I would just lay the points. I think
they're gonna win the game. I think they win the
game handily.
Speaker 1 (08:23):
Yeah. I mean, if you look at Clemson's three most
notable games this year, They've only played two ranked opponents. First,
they got run off the field by Georgia, okay, fair,
first game of the season, whatever, But then totally put
up fourteen against South Carolina, which real quick sidebar. I'm
glad we kind of eliminated that cool forty eight hours
where everybody thought South Carolina would get in the playoff.
(08:44):
Like it was just the most ridiculous thing ever. The
rankings have told you what South Carolina was. They weren't
going to be able to jump Bama and Ole Miss,
and they potentially could have not jumped Miami because of
where they fell. I think it's just the silliest thing.
Maybe if had they shown up against Ole Miss, then
(09:04):
you could make a case, well, maybe you know, the
games were coin flips against Alabama and Ole Miss. And
let's be honest, that Alabama game didn't become competitive until
the second half. There was a really crazy swing at
the end of the second quarter that just sucked all
the life out of Alabama and that's how that game
got close. And Bama just never recovered. And I think
that's also an indictment on Alabama, but we'll get to
(09:25):
that when we see them in the first round of
the playoff next week. But South Carolina was never getting in.
They needed miracles on top of miracles to happen. They
did in Mississippi State to win. They needed Auburn to win.
They probably may have needed a little more help because
of how Miami was going to play into that picture
if teams had lost. I mean, we saw it with
Indiana a few weeks ago as well, So to me,
(09:48):
that conversation was all unnecessary, Like it was either Alabama
or Miami and that's it. But anyway, guns and being
able to kind of no show against Louisville, no show
at least offensively against South Carolina, and no show against Georgia. Look,
they're a very good team, but they're not a great team.
(10:09):
They're not an elite team. And I don't think there
are any elite teams this year in college football. I
think that's why the playoff is going to be so fascinating,
because we don't know there are teams that you think
are elite. But hell, we thought Ohio State going into
this past week was going to be one of those
teams and they completely just completely dropped the ball at
(10:31):
home against Michigan. So and I think that potentially applians
to Oregon this weekend as well. Do we know they're
that elite? Do we know they're number one? Or is
it just because of the way their schedule broke? Yeah,
you could. I'll say this The best way to describe
it is, you can poke more holes in resumes this year. Yeah,
from from top to bottom than you more than you
(10:54):
have in any previous year of four team playoff, twelve
team playoff, whatever it may be.
Speaker 2 (11:00):
Yeah, I mean, you don't have twenty nineteen LSU, you
don't have Deshaun Watson, Trevor Lawrence, Clemson, you don't have
you know, whatever Saban Bama team you want to use,
the DeVante Smith team, whatever team you want to use.
A recent memory, it does feel like we've had one.
Speaker 3 (11:16):
Of those every year.
Speaker 2 (11:17):
I would say last year, I don't know if we
necessarily had that elite team. We had Michigan, Alabama, and Georgia.
I think all group together. Alabama played Michigan do a
close game, and then Michigan got lucky to have the
I think the bracket broke out, that Georgia got left
out of that whole thing that kind of get lost,
got lost in the whole Florida state getting left out.
Speaker 3 (11:35):
But yeah, it's the thing with Oregon.
Speaker 2 (11:39):
There's a chance you're right, there's a chance that they're
not an elite team, and the schedule propped them up
that way, and then I think there's a chance that
we're not treating them lead enough. I'd also sure, I
think there's a chance that they might be clear and
ahead of some of these other teams. And you look
at the odds, not a difference between those top four
teams odds wise in terms of the title. It's not
(12:01):
like Oregon's, you know, markedly ahead of anybody. So I
think there is a chance they're the one team I
would say has the chance to be that elite team
this year where we look at we look back and
they're sixteen or yeah, I guess it would be seventeen
to no. If they won the Big Ten Championship and
then won the National Championship.
Speaker 3 (12:19):
We would look back and be like, man, that was
an elite team. But you're right. I mean it's gonna
go either way.
Speaker 2 (12:26):
Either Oregon wins it all and we called them the
elite team that we should have saw the whole way,
or Oregon loses at some point we say they were
never elite.
Speaker 3 (12:33):
Their schedule kind of propped them up that way.
Speaker 1 (12:36):
So let's talk about Oregon. They're playing Penn State in
the Big Ten Championship game this weekend. They're a three
point favorite over under fifty. Came in Annapolis if James
Franklin wasn't Penn State's head coach, and I saw this
Penn State roster in totality and the performances they've put together,
(12:58):
even for parts of the Ohio State game, I bet
Penn State. Look. I know it's crazy to think because
you look at the history is screaming right in the fate,
right at you in the face. James Franklin only has
one win against top five opposition. But if you look
in this matchup specifically, what did Dan Lanning do with
(13:22):
his elite team. Last year he lost twice, not once,
but twice to the National Championship runner up in Washington.
I know we've keeps a ton of praise on Dan
Lanning and what the job he's done in Oregon, But
what has he done to prove he's in that Kirby Smart,
Nick Saban level?
Speaker 3 (13:40):
Yet he hasn't. No, You're absolutely right.
Speaker 2 (13:44):
People have wanted to put him there for a long time.
He's not in that who The only retort I'd have
to that is that there's only.
Speaker 3 (13:51):
One guy in that right now in this playoff, and
it's Kirby.
Speaker 2 (13:56):
And that's the advantage you have to give Georgia no
matter what happens on Saturday.
Speaker 1 (14:00):
With Texas.
Speaker 3 (14:01):
Not to get into a Texas story, I think we'll
talk about that in a bit.
Speaker 2 (14:04):
But everybody else, you've got to prove something. James Franklin,
what have you done? Marcus Freeman, what have you done?
Dan Lanning?
Speaker 3 (14:11):
What have you done? I mean the list goes on
and on. Jeff Hippel.
Speaker 1 (14:16):
Sark, I mean, Ryan d certainly hasn't done anything.
Speaker 3 (14:20):
Certainly, hey, I coached six, you can google him.
Speaker 1 (14:24):
He wins.
Speaker 2 (14:25):
But I don't know if if he's at that level.
You know, I don't know who I who I missed
going through the teams.
Speaker 3 (14:30):
They're Kalen de Boor.
Speaker 1 (14:34):
But at least he got to the National Championship Game
last year. That does that give him. But I think
that to the whole point I'm making about Penn State
Oregon is not only do we have a lack of
an elite team, a lack of elite head coaches recompoint
to like they're the difference maker outside of Kirby Smart.
Elite quarterbacks just aren't in the field this year. It's
(14:57):
just for whatever reason, the season broke. You know, Carson
Beck at the beginning of the year, he was supposed
to be the big deal. Well, it turns out Lad
mcconaughie and Brock Bowers, because of the seasons they're having
in the NFL as well, were the reasons why Georgia
looked that good last year, and deservedly so. Those two
are having a ton of success in the NFL. But
(15:19):
if you look across the board here, you're ranking Drew
Aller pretty high in quarterbacks in the top twelve. I
think it's I just don't know, like.
Speaker 3 (15:35):
Is Gabriel the best quarterback in the field, though.
Speaker 1 (15:37):
I don't know that's what I'm is it Jaln Milroe right.
Speaker 3 (15:43):
It isn't for me. I would go Gabriel over Milroe.
Speaker 1 (15:46):
But that's the thing to me is like I can't
stand here and clearcut say team A or Team B,
or quarterback A or quarterback B is head and shoulders
above the rest.
Speaker 3 (15:59):
No, definitely not.
Speaker 1 (16:00):
And I think that's what makes the Big to the
Big Ten and the SEC championship game so fascinating, is
and let's just lump them together because they both mean
so much in the SEC. You've seen so many flaws
from Carson Beck this year, and it was, let's be honest,
it was a miracle for them to get past Georgia Tech.
Speaker 2 (16:21):
And by the way, Tony stat on Carson Beck, I
hate being like the Carson Beck guy because I hate
I always played this year leading passer and leading touchdown
quarterback out of all the teams that would be in
the playoff right.
Speaker 1 (16:32):
Now, which is insane.
Speaker 3 (16:35):
It kind of goes to show your point there for sure,
and then look.
Speaker 1 (16:39):
Look you have you have Quinn yours, who's at least
been in the play he's been in the playoff game,
but he's not elite elite. He looks broken right now,
right and he kind of is. He's dealing with the
ankle injury. Cam Ward's probably the best talent wise, and
he's not going to be in the playoff. So if
you look down this this list of quarterbacks, let's do
(17:02):
it quickly, it's it's Dylan Gabriel, Quinn Yours, Drew Aller, Riley, Leonard, Carson, Beck,
Will Howard, Niko Yama, Java, Kevin Jennings, I, Curtis work
Maddox Madson at Boise State, but their offense runs through
Ashton Genty and he's too, And you have Jaln Milroe.
(17:23):
And then it's either Levitt from Arizona State or Rocko
Beck at Iowa State. None of them, none of them
are early quarterbacks. So to me, is is it the
I think we talked about this last week. Is the
elite positional unit or the elite difference maker on offense?
(17:43):
Is that how these games are gonna get won? Or
is it the elite defense? Like Texas I think is
starting to to get into that category. I think that's
the difference this year. I think it's the elite running
backs or tight ends, and I know Oregon has that,
and look, I'm kind of tainted because I have blue
(18:03):
and blue and white glasses on pretty much every Saturday.
But if you look at Penn State and they're two
running backs and their world class tight end and their
defense with a top five pick coming off the edge,
you're telling me they're not in the mix as like
a top four title contender. I know James Franklin is
the black cloud hovering over this entire team, but if
(18:25):
you objectively look at the team, the talent on the team,
and not the head coach, this looks like a title contender.
Speaker 2 (18:34):
I'm a little bit more skeptical of Alor in general.
He'd rack pretty low on some of the stat kind
of qualifiers among the quarterbacks of this group. And the
Minnesota game really sticks with me. That defense did not
look like the defense I kind of signed up for
when I was pushing Penn State the first half of
the year against the Minnesota team, that it's not. They
(18:55):
can't really run the ball, so it was all through
the air, and I thought that that was concerning. So
to me, I'm looking at Penn State kind of in
a similar way that I'm looking at Notre Dame as
a team that I don't think and when the play,
I think they could win a game or two.
Speaker 3 (19:08):
I think their drawl is really going to matter.
Speaker 2 (19:11):
But for for this game specifically, part of me wants
to say, this is kind of a prove it spot
for Oregon where it's like, if you're this elite rolling
ball of chainsaws that I think you could be if
things work out right and you know your team is
what you think it can be and what your team
has been at times this year, then Oregon should come
(19:34):
out and handle this game and prove.
Speaker 3 (19:37):
That they're, you know, the big dog.
Speaker 2 (19:40):
But then there's part of me saying, if Oregon loses,
they're the five seed, Like, is Oregon even coming into
this game, you know, super fired up, like they have
a kind of a spot cinched in that would be
even better I think than their one seed. I'm not
saying that they're tanking for the five seed. What I'm
saying is I think that the motivation level might be different,
(20:01):
Like this is Penn State's I know everyone said like
if not now when when Penn State played Ohio State,
and I was very loud at the time saying, guess what,
their goals are still in front of them if they
lose that game, and here we are, their goals are
still in front of them, and you could say that
they show up to that game and this is the
culmination of their season, The culmination of this whole era
(20:24):
is finally winning the Big Ten, finally beating a top
five opponent, and.
Speaker 3 (20:29):
You don't have to go on the road to do it.
You do it, you know, in a neutral field.
Speaker 2 (20:34):
So I'm gonna be betting Oregon just off the strength
of how good I think this Oregon team can be
and is theyre might pick to win the title right now,
but it won't be a confident bet because I am.
It won't be a big bets kind of what I
should say, because of what I just laid out with
Penn State's motivation factor, I didn't give much of a
(20:57):
much of credence to that against Ohio State giving a
lot of it right now, and I do think that
that's why this line is three and a half three.
Speaker 1 (21:07):
I think the under is the way to go at
fifty points. I think if if Penn State's defense is
as elite as it is, and it could show it
in spots that it can be and if Oregon is
as elite as we think they are, and look, if
you want to pokepose an organ's resume, they did give
up thirty one points to Ohio State. So I probably
(21:30):
lean the under it's it's tempting to take Penn State.
Speaker 3 (21:36):
It is.
Speaker 1 (21:36):
It's very tempting, at least on my end, knowing that
it feels like almost no one's talking about them, and
maybe that's the motivation. Franklin taps into who knows that
they could just lay a massive egg and we're back
to the same mole. Okay, well, it's nice that you're
(21:57):
hosting a first round playoff game you're gonna win because
December and State College and the SEC teams aren't used
to that. What do you what are you gonna do
after that? Still, it could very much get to that point.
Speaker 2 (22:10):
So I kind of think it's interesting to lay it
out like this since I'm sure we're about to go
to the SEC Championship game and talk about that. I
almost think the SEC Championship and the Big Ten Championship
are like a parlay no matter what, like based on
how the seating is going to break out here, Like
I feel like I keep thinking of the Penn State, Georgia,
Penn State, Texas, Oregon, Texas, Oregon, Georgia, like the different
(22:33):
permutations of who's the one seed, who's the two seeds,
who's five through eight, who gets those home playoff games?
The ACC is kind of on its island with Alabama.
It's like, you know that whole Alabama is very interested
in that, but outside of that, not a big effect
on I think the seating we know SMU would drop,
whether that's two eleven or whether that's out. I think
(22:56):
it's probably out if they lost, but most likely or
the three seed and then the big twelve in the
Mountain West are their own thing where it's winning in
you know, we'll see you.
Speaker 3 (23:06):
We'll see you when you have to see the five
seed in the first right.
Speaker 1 (23:09):
One of them is the twelve seed. One of thom
is the four seed.
Speaker 2 (23:11):
That's it's like kind of taking care of it's fun
for betting purposes, like you know, do or die games,
and it's all I can't wait to watch. But the
real interest is with that SMU Bama thing that we
already covered. And then now kind of with the permutations
and do we want to kind of debate what the
seating would be in some of these scenarios. Let's say
(23:32):
the favorites one. Let's say Oregon and Oregon and Texas
win everything. Pretty I think that that's the scenario for
me as a Notre Dame fan. That lines up with
Notre Dame getting the Notre Dame spot as the committee
called it in the off season when they came up
with this spot the five seeds, and I think that
they would bump Penn State below Notre Dame. The debates
(23:55):
would start to be do you bump Penn State below?
Ohio State State beat Penn State Penn State took the
second loss in the conference championship. I think that would
start to be an interesting debate. But I don't think
Penn State slides past seven on the seed. It would
be they'd be five, six or seven. In this scenario,
(24:15):
I think it'd be six or seven. I think Notre
Dame goes to five. That's I actually think that's one
of the less chaotic scenarios.
Speaker 1 (24:23):
I could actually make a very strong case that it
obviously depends on how the games go, but I think
you could go if the if the two favorite win,
if we're going to Texas win, they're one and two.
I think you can make a case that Notre Dame's five,
Ohio State six, Georgia is seven, and Penn State because
(24:44):
and here's the logic behind it, Georgia went one and
one against the number two overall team in the country.
Speaker 2 (24:50):
That's a good point, but that's kind sactored in now,
and like they already have that win over Texas and
Penn State's well above.
Speaker 1 (24:59):
Them, but Georgia also has two losses.
Speaker 2 (25:02):
Yeah, I think Penn State would be safe from dropping
below Georgia unless unless it's avoid SEC matchups, avoid Big
ten matchups.
Speaker 1 (25:13):
There, I think the easiest thing for the committee to
do without arguing about who's seven through ten and all
this stuff, if you truly want SEC versus Big ten
in those games, I think it's a lot easier to
put Georgia at seven, Penn State at eight, and they go, Okay, Tennessee,
you're the nine, Indiana, you're the ten that fits in
(25:34):
line with how the rank, and then Bama ends up
being the eleven seed. Yeah, because them, Because I look
at the how everything is playing out, and the last
thing I want to see is Indiana, Penn State and
Georgia Tennessee. I don't. I don't want that. I don't
want any combination of all Big ten or all SEC matchup.
(25:55):
I want to straight SEC versus Big ten. And it's
very clear that Indiana is not jumping Tennessee. So Tennessee
and Indiana are in that order regardless, which means if
you drop Georgia to eight and you drop Penn State
to seven, then you're giving me Indiana and Penn State
and Tennessee Georgia. I've already seen Tennessee Georgia. I don't
(26:17):
need to see Penn State Indiana like I think. But
I think if the committee comes out onto on Saturday,
I'm sorry Sunday afternoon and says we ranked Georgia seven
and Penn State eight, and we've done that so that
we avoid in all SEC in an all Big ten
matchup because we've seen with the logic of we've seen
(26:40):
Tennessee versus Georgia before because Penn State didn't play Indiana
in the regular season. But if you have the data
point of we've already seen Tennessee versus Georgia, we want
a unique matchup. I think that goes over look college
footballs are still gonna get upset. That's just the nature
of how these things go. But I think you have
a lot more a lot more goodwill if you say, hey,
(27:04):
sez versus Big ten, we're worried about the first round.
We don't care how the quarterfinals matchup.
Speaker 3 (27:10):
Then let's say Oregon and Georgia win, Texas is the five.
I think.
Speaker 2 (27:17):
They love this Texas team. They did it before they
even had like a big win against A and M. Like,
I don't think they would put Notre Dame above Texas.
Speaker 1 (27:25):
I think they would.
Speaker 3 (27:27):
That would be great for me.
Speaker 2 (27:29):
But I really think because and I think Sanke has
been so loud about the conference championships not mattering for
them or not not mattering, but if not punishing them,
I don't know how far they can drop Texas.
Speaker 1 (27:45):
Six is their their floor. Yeah, six is their floor
because they would have two losses and then you can
justify Notre Dame one loss team, Texas two loss team,
and then slought the Marina Head Ohio State and be okay,
that's it's done and dusted. It's very at least it's
a very simple process from there. If if Oregon loses,
(28:06):
they're the five. They're the five. That's I think that's
pretty clear cut. And then the debate goes, well, who's
number one?
Speaker 2 (28:15):
I mean, I think it's Texas. It's Texas. If they win,
it's Penn State.
Speaker 1 (28:20):
Yeah, correct, because then you just have them straight in line.
And there's already a buffer between Penn State and Georgia
Notre Dame and the current rankings. So how does how
does two lost Georgia jump one lost Penn State if
they were both win. I don't think that's I think
that's messy.
Speaker 2 (28:37):
Pef was saying that, I don't think that they would. Yeah,
I mean, that's that's your Happy Valley porn scenario there
with with h what is it? So it's Penn State
and Penn State and text Penn State and Georgia you'd
have to win. That's your parlay out there if you want.
If you want, Penn State is the number one overall
team heading into the first twelve team playoff we've ever
(28:58):
had put in your Penn State and Georgia money line parlas,
because I think that doesn't and I.
Speaker 1 (29:04):
Think everybody on top of that, you know, just of
where the seeding plays out after Saturday, is also looking
into the potential matchups, but I think that's more from
a fans side of Okay, this is this team would
match up with this team, yadayada, YadA. I think that
what the committee is worried about is getting the right
twelve teams in, so in this case, the right eight
(29:26):
teams or seven really at large teams, and it comes
down to Alabama or SMU. If SMU loses, and I
think it's pretty cut and dry that Alabama's going to
get in over SMU. I'm sorry, like that's just kind
of the way things are. SMU, go win your championship game, which,
(29:47):
by the way, they did last year in the AAC.
It's also with point out to to kind of circle
back to the motivation point with Oregon, they lost the
Packfeld championship game last year. Does that in the back
of their mind at all? I know it's a different
conference for an opponent, but does maybe that kind of
reinforce I guess, at least the internal motivation of what
(30:07):
goes on up in Eugene this week.
Speaker 3 (30:10):
Yeah, it could.
Speaker 2 (30:12):
The motivation thing is kind of what I'm worried about
with both of the big games here. And I heard
someone say that I don't know where I heard it,
but the ACC Championship, the Mountain West Championship, and the
Big Twelve Championship are being helped tremendously by the twelve
team playoffs. The Big Ten and the SEC Championship definitely
feel smaller than they've felt in years past. And you
(30:34):
know what, I'm fine with that for the trade off
of forty games mattering in the past four weeks or
however many you want to say, we knew that there'd
be some games that would get devalued in this scenario.
It's kind of the SEC and Big Ten Championship, and
it's kind of why I'm not confidently betting either of them.
Like I initially loved Georgia early in the week, and
(30:55):
now that you think about it, like they're in no
matter what.
Speaker 3 (30:57):
They just had a gauntlet of a game.
Speaker 2 (30:58):
Against Georgia Tech against the arrival, Texas is riding high.
I have absolutely no read on the SEC title game.
You could tell me Texas blows out Georgia, Texas wins
a close one, Georgia whins a close one, Georgia wins
a blowout.
Speaker 3 (31:13):
Nothing.
Speaker 2 (31:14):
I have absolutely no read, no read on the total
no read on the side. I'm just gonna be sitting
back and rooting for Texas, to be honest, because I
do think it helps out Notre Dame. And we don't
even have to have the Texas Notre Dame to be
if Texas wins. So, as a Notre Dame fan, I
guess here's a scenario I'll throw at you, Tanzy or
not scenario just as a Notre Dame fan, what should
(31:34):
I be rooting for?
Speaker 3 (31:35):
Should I?
Speaker 2 (31:36):
There's obviously I should be rooting for the five seed
where you get the Mountain West and the Big twelve
combo in two weeks.
Speaker 3 (31:45):
Is it worse to.
Speaker 2 (31:46):
Be the sixth seed who plays Alabama probably in the
first round and then you'd have to play the ACC
champ in the second round? Or would you rather be
the seventh in a scenario that Oregon and Texas loss.
Let's say Penn State and Georgia win. They give Oregon
the five, they give Texas the six, and they give
(32:09):
Notre Dame the seventh. Would you rather be the seven
playing Indiana but having to go play the SEC champ.
Speaker 1 (32:16):
Nope, you don't want that. You don't want that in necessaria,
because Georgia is sitting there and Georgia's got the only
coaches one and Natty in the field. You don't want that,
you want? You want five seed or bust.
Speaker 2 (32:26):
Six seed is like, I don't want the sixth seed,
but I'll settle for it. Seventh seed is the night
the Happy Valley scenario I just gave with the Penn
State number one party, that's the nightmare scenario for Notre Dame,
especially at Texas, where to lose a close one and
they for sure get locked in over Notre Dame.
Speaker 3 (32:44):
We don't know.
Speaker 2 (32:45):
The one interesting part there would that would lock in
a Texas Alabama six to eleven game in all likelihood,
so they that might give them another reason to put
Notre Dame aboff Texas kind of to your point earlier,
and that would be Texas Indiana, and then it would
stay Ohio State, Tennessee in that eight nine. But that's
(33:05):
kind some people might feel like they need like a
pen and paper writing out all these permutations and scenarios while.
Speaker 3 (33:10):
We're talking along.
Speaker 2 (33:11):
But I do think it's fun to kind of have
these conversations before they happen, because one of the things
we just laid out is going to be the hot
button topic on Saturday night.
Speaker 3 (33:21):
The one fun thing is that we find out on
Sunday morning.
Speaker 1 (33:24):
The one thing we know for certain is people are
going to complain about how the black bracket is aligned
regardless of what happens on Saturday. Even even if Oregon
and Texas win and SMU wins and the top three
go to Chalk, there's going to be a debate about, well,
is is Notre Dame a worthy number five? You know,
should should Penn State in Georgia? You know the scenario
(33:46):
we kind of played out is who should be ranked
in front of who? And are they they serving the
conferences instead of actually doing something for the college football
fan by with the way they align them. I think
the the most fascinating thing to me is, look, I
if the favorites wins, if Oregon, Texas SMU win, the
(34:06):
fascinating thing to me is and this is something that
just it's a personal preference of mine. I want SEC
versus Big Ten. But are you gonna cater to just
how the rankings are and give us a Georgia Tennessee
rematch and give us Indiana versus Penn State? Or are
you gonna are you gonna play the rematch card and
say Tennessee and Georgia already played, we already saw how
(34:29):
that happened, and flip the four. They might.
Speaker 3 (34:34):
I think they might do it, but I don't think
they'll say it.
Speaker 1 (34:38):
Uh, you'd be surprised. I think that they might if
they get asked specifically about that.
Speaker 3 (34:44):
They will.
Speaker 1 (34:44):
They they might. It's it's a possibility, but I don't.
I don't think that's something they would they would say
right away. I think that's something ESPN has to like prompt,
you know, Rece Davis has to prompt word manual with
of Hey, why are these teams like this?
Speaker 3 (34:59):
I'll give Reese credit.
Speaker 2 (35:01):
And by the way, I think this has been like
this is like such a weird kind of segment to
do Reese Davis corner. I think this has been like
the year of Rees Davis. I feel like in years
past with College Game Day, I've like appreciatedly you know,
we always love Kirk.
Speaker 3 (35:16):
You know McAfee's first year there.
Speaker 2 (35:17):
I felt like we were like, Wow, what a phenomenon
with mcafeel on that show.
Speaker 3 (35:21):
This is the year where I'm like, man, Rece Davis
is the best. Like the monologue starts show.
Speaker 2 (35:26):
I listened to his podcasts now, but I actually think
the best work he does is talking to the to
the College Football Chair Committee chair at the end of
the year. He never takes it easy, like he drills
in on them last week, even when he was like,
so these teams aren't gonna move right like and Word
was like no, and He's like, you might have just
(35:47):
locked yourself into something there, but I'll hold you to it.
Speaker 3 (35:50):
Like a random little segment I had to do there.
But I think Davis is the best.
Speaker 1 (35:56):
Also that that Tuesday night show is an abomination. Like
the second the rankings, I turn it off. The amount
of like spin between Galloway and Booger and Greg McElroy,
the amount of spin they try and put on anything.
It's just like it feels like they're just making things up.
(36:16):
Because I mean the Indiana thing a few weeks ago,
I think Galloway said, oh, Indiana should should sit Curtis
Rourke because it does.
Speaker 2 (36:25):
Like although I do the same thing, it was a
little different because Aler was announces hurt, but it was funny.
Speaker 3 (36:32):
I did kind of do the same thing.
Speaker 2 (36:33):
When kenn State play Ohio State, I was like, they
should just sit Aler and if they lose, be like their.
Speaker 3 (36:37):
Quarterback was hurt.
Speaker 2 (36:38):
But that's a little bit different than saying a quarterback
is fully healthy should sit out.
Speaker 1 (36:43):
It was just like the most some of the most
baffling takes come from that, and there's nothing gained from it.
They just it's just unorganized yelling.
Speaker 3 (36:51):
I do like the internets with the committee.
Speaker 1 (36:53):
That yeah, you need that, you absolutely need that. But
the takes just fly and there they're really really.
Speaker 2 (37:00):
And then they go to Heather Dinich who spent the
entire weekend telling everyone like, oh, don't be so sure,
Miami's dropping below Alabama, Like the Committee has never dropped
the team more than x amount of spots with just
one loss, without the other team beating a rank TEA.
Speaker 3 (37:17):
And it's like, well, guess what they did.
Speaker 2 (37:18):
It they did so like we're gonna go to you
for ten minutes now to do on the telestrator thing
after you were dead wrong for the last forty eight
hours all over Twitter, like it's that whole broadcast.
Speaker 1 (37:29):
It's one thing. It's one thing to present facts of
what the Committee has done in the past, but you
also have to interject a little bit of kind of
opinion into those facts as well, because if you just
straight shoot those facts, well the records and trends are
meant to be broken.
Speaker 2 (37:43):
Yeah, and the All State Playoff predictor had Miami at
like a forty two chance on Saturday night.
Speaker 1 (37:49):
After this, well, if you go to the ESPN Playoff
predictor for your playoff odds, just in general, you need
to kind of reevaluate how you approach things with that.
Speaker 2 (38:01):
Chris Phallica, the Bear on Fox Sports one, He's like,
can ESPN bet offer a price on on on that
number there? Get minus one fifty or whatever it is,
because we know that they won't offer that because the
playoff predictors bs.
Speaker 3 (38:15):
He was like kind of railing on.
Speaker 2 (38:16):
His former employer there a little bit, but he was like,
let me tell you this. Let me tell you the
chances of my having making the playoff zero point zero
zero percent.
Speaker 1 (38:27):
Let's get into the games this weekend. There are nine
conference championship games. I'll go through all of them and
we'll start, you know, we'll just go chronological order. So
Western Kentucky plays Jacksonville State in the CUSA Championship. The
fascinating thing to me is rich Rod's down at Jacksonville State,
and there are there's a certain subset of West Virginia
(38:50):
Twitter that wants him back.
Speaker 3 (38:54):
That's awesome. I love it. I kind of love it.
Speaker 1 (38:57):
I love that. I'm like, I don't think that's the
way you want to go. Neither is is Dan Mullen
or you know, a Chip Kelly type. But this should
be a fun game like that. Yeah, he's good. I
think it's probably better if he stays in the TV booth.
There's a lot of young offensive minds that are probably
(39:17):
better options. I mean, look at Kittley went going to FAU.
That's a perfect type of higher at a mid major
level that in probably three to four years we're talking
about him as a Power five head coaching candidate. In
this game, with the offenses, it's very different. Jacksonville State
loves to run the ball. Western Kentucky loves to throw
(39:39):
the ball. This to me is going to be an
interesting game because they just played each other nineteen to seventeen.
Western Kentucky won. I lean the under in this game
at fifty seven and a half, just because I think
there is a lick of defense played on both sides,
and as much as you want a contrast with pass
(40:03):
orus run. Jacksonville State's run game is is very very good. Yeah.
Speaker 2 (40:07):
I don't have anything on any of the Friday night games.
The one that i'll kind of UNLV Boise obviously the
winning in game there.
Speaker 3 (40:16):
It's I didn't know this until this week.
Speaker 2 (40:18):
Is this a new Mountain WESTLN that they're playing the
conference championship at home? I?
Speaker 1 (40:22):
Yeah, I didn't realize that until this week either, because
it has been in Vegas. They did. Yeah, they've played
this one in Vegas.
Speaker 2 (40:28):
Yeah, and that's what when I was initially looking at this,
I was like, oh, no, it's Boise having to go
to Vegas here to play NLV.
Speaker 3 (40:34):
But no, it's at home. On the They're.
Speaker 1 (40:36):
Probably doing it to give the top ranked team in
the conference the advantage.
Speaker 3 (40:40):
Yeah, which I like. I generally actually think it's fine.
Speaker 2 (40:43):
I would be fine with that across all the across
all of them, to be honest. But the shame of
it is Boise really has not been nearly as good
down the stretch. You know, you look at like twenty
eight twenty one against the Nevada team, seventeen thirteen against
a bad Wyoming team.
Speaker 3 (40:58):
Even Oregon State kind of like a little laboring to
put them away and win by sixteen. UNLV.
Speaker 2 (41:06):
They play a lot of close games as well, Like
they already lost a game to Boise in that game
was in Vegas, so it's not like that was a
road game on the blue turf.
Speaker 3 (41:14):
They barely beat.
Speaker 2 (41:15):
Hawaii out on the island about a month ago, So
I'm staying away. But I think that there's gonna be
a lot of people who think Boise's free, if not free,
but like money Line Thunder money Line.
Speaker 3 (41:26):
So I think this game's coming down to the gun.
I would mean figuring it out, but yeah, close.
Speaker 1 (41:32):
By the way. In the AAC Championship game, Tullian is
at Army Games at West Point. Tulayan head coach Sean
Summerl is one of the hottest coaching candidates. Yeah, I
don't know if he'll go anywhere because he's it's his
first year at Tulane coming from Troy. Fun fact, he's
played the option offense three times in his coaching career
head coaching career, those teams have scored a collective nine
(41:55):
points on his defenses, including a thirty five to nothing
win over Navy this season.
Speaker 2 (42:01):
That's a pretty good stat I know. I know that
there's a lot of Kentucky fans. He was supposed to
be the Tuffy coach last year. A lot of Kentucky
fans dying for them to fire Mark Steps so they
can hire sum Roll before someone else does.
Speaker 1 (42:13):
Somebody will I don't know if. I don't know if
it's this year, but somebody will will hire. I don't
think North Carolina or West Virginia. Is is it worth?
It is basically what I'm saying. To get to that point, Well,
we'll see how the that goes. But Telaane minus five
is is my game. Playing that game. Talaian has been
playing incredible defense. It doesn't scare me that it's a
(42:34):
broad game for them, and the stats against the option
are pretty pretty strong as well. In the mac Miami
Ohio against Ohio. The only thing I have to say
about this is Ohio got rated in the transfer portal
and the fact that they're here is just simply incredible.
And unfortunately that game it kind of takes a back
burner to Iowa State in Arizona State in the Big Twelve.
Speaker 3 (42:57):
Yeah, and why did they put the Big Twelve game
at noon?
Speaker 1 (43:00):
It's been like that.
Speaker 2 (43:02):
That's so dumb, especially with now there's so many more
West Coast teams. I've love Arizona State in that game,
one of the best teams in the country against the spread.
I apologize for my voice to the people out there
fighting fighting through here. I'm questionable for this weekend, but
Arizona State only favorite bite two. They've been so good
against the spread. Kenny Dillingham I think should be the
(43:23):
national Coach of the Year.
Speaker 1 (43:24):
He's done a fantastic job. A weird situation playing out
in the Sun Belt. So Marshall is a six point
dog at Louisiana. Their head coach, Charles Hoff is apparently
without a contract for next year. That's a fun little wrinkle.
Former Nick Saban assistants done a pretty good job at Marshall,
(43:44):
so apparently there's some sort of internal conflict going on
there where he doesn't have a contract for next year
and he's in the Sun Belt championship game. So that's
that's the thing. But I think Louisiana wins that game.
They've been playing really, really, really good football of late.
A lot of teams in Louisiana have Tulane Louisian. You
can make a case LSU might be like the third
(44:06):
or fourth best team in their own state this year,
which is crazy, but it also speaks to kind of
the caliber program. And then you have Penn State Oregon
and Clemson SMU. I think we're both on on SMU,
We're both on Arizona State. I'm gonna take I'm taking Tulane.
It's very weird to see a conference championship weekend with
(44:27):
all spreads at a touchdown or less. Usually there's like,
and I guess this is this is heaping praise now
on the conferences for eliminating divisions, eliminating the ACC Coastal
and the Big Ten West, because all of a sudden,
you have teams that can compete, not five lost Pittsburgh
(44:47):
or eight and four Iowa coming in as as twenty
one point favorite. So I guess that's the That's the
fun wrinkle to how realignments reshape these things is now
that we no longer have in divisions in a majory
already at these conferences, we actually get the two best
teams and at least according to the spreads, competitive games.
Speaker 3 (45:07):
Yeah. No, it's gonna be a fun weekend for sure.
Speaker 2 (45:10):
It's a shame that I like I feel like I
don't have a lot of the I have my Bama
to make the playoffs take, which is basically an SMU.
Speaker 3 (45:16):
Money line take.
Speaker 2 (45:16):
But I don't have a lot of strong conviction on
any of the games besides Arizona State.
Speaker 1 (45:22):
Other than that, are there going to be any blowouts
among the power for.
Speaker 3 (45:27):
I think SMU.
Speaker 2 (45:28):
I think SMU would be the most likely, which I
think they might be the smallest spread, but I think
they might be the most likely.
Speaker 1 (45:34):
I think, as you might roll Iowa State, their offense
is playing so well. Levitt's kind of an underrated quarterback there,
and Cam Scataboo is the best player in that game.
Speaker 2 (45:45):
Yeah, I think Arizona State has a chance to I'm
not an Iowa State. I do feel like Iowa State
uglies up games to make them closer than even they
should be sometimes, But I really don't want Iowa State
in the in the playoff. I think they're incredible. I
think Arizona State's at least fun.
Speaker 3 (46:03):
I guess as.
Speaker 2 (46:04):
Someone who might be the five seed, I should want
Iowa State, but I think they stay.
Speaker 1 (46:07):
Yeah. Look if you're if you're the five seed in
any of these playoffs, scenarios. So in your case Notre Dame,
potentially Oregon, you don't want to see Arizona State. Arizona
State will at least muck it up and be competitive
where I think Iowa State is probably the worst possible,
at least in terms of the totality of the twelve
(46:28):
team field. To bolster the strength, I think Arizona State
has clearly shown that the best in the Big twelve. Yeah,
for sure, which is pretty clear. But I think Arizona
State SMU. I think on a money line parlay or
a spread parlay is kind of where for the most part,
the two of us in agreement, which means Iowa State,
it's gonna ruin that in the noon window. That's that's
(46:49):
how things go. But for Mark Henry Junior, I am
Joe Tansey, thank you again for listening all season. We'll
be back next week playoff preview. This is the first
time we get to do something like this, the first
round playoff preview with four games at campus sites happening
on the twentieth and the twenty first. Very excited to
break into that and guess what, the most wonderful time
(47:11):
of the year starts next Saturday. Ball season schedules a
little different because of the playoff, but Bowl season is
upon us and it's one of the favorite betting times
of the year, So tune back next week as we
break down the playoff. We finally have a bracket after
next week and this week, well it's either Alabama or SMU.
(47:31):
That's the big decision to be made. Thanks again for listening,
and best of luck on your bets. Spreads total, all
the prop BET's in the tweens. It's the gambler.
Fox Sports Radio Gambler. Fox Sports Radio in Philly is
The Gambler. The Gambler, Philly's home for all things sports gambling.
(00:27):
Hello everyone, to welcome on the Conference Championship version of
the Big Brains. Here myself, just Sansey and Mark Henry
Junior taking you through all nine of the conference championship
games this weekend. Two of them obviously massive ones in
Penn State, Oregon in the Big Ten and Georgia, Texas
in the SEC. I'd say Clemson SMU and the a
(00:49):
CC is probably right on that like one A one
B line as well because of its significance to the playoff.
And let's get right into it, Mark, because that's the
big debate going into these games on Saturday, is how
exactly do these results affect the playoffs. I think the
first and foremost thing is in the ACC. Is it
just straight up SMU or Alabama. No.
Speaker 2 (01:14):
I do think if SMU loses a game similar to
how we saw TCU lose the Big Twelve Championship a
couple a couple of years ago against Oklahoma State, I
think it was either they barely missed the late touchdown
or Oklahoma State barely got a late touchdown to win.
It was one or the other. Yeah, it came down
(01:35):
right to the wire. It was within one possession, was
a close game the whole way. If it's something like that,
I think SMU is probably fine. But if SMU loses
and it doesn't feel like that, I don't even know
if it necessarily has a point total attached to it,
it might be anything over a possession. I think if
(01:55):
that's the case, BAM is in for sure. But the
books now we're telling you BAM is around like minus
three ninety five, which is obviously a lot higher.
Speaker 3 (02:04):
Than SMU's money line this weekend, So.
Speaker 2 (02:07):
That would tell you the books at this point are
thinking that it's going to be Baman no matter what.
Speaker 1 (02:14):
So I think the important thing here is SMU wins
and they're in regardless. We don't have this conversation. This
is kind of just a parachute conversation. If Clemson does
beat SMU and then all of a sudden, Clemson is
in the field, probably the weakest of the twelve teams
in the field. For being honest, maybe the Big Twelve
champion is but Clemson is definitely ranked in the bottom quadrant,
(02:37):
and somehow they end up getting a top four seed
out of it. So how do we look at this game?
Because I think it it's not the most eye catching
game because it could be a route SMU could just
completely blow the doors off of Clemson and play really
well like they have the last two weeks and we're
not even having this discussion by halftime on Saturday night.
(02:58):
But with a I think the spreads only what two
and a half points with in favor of SMU. Is
that just the books just not respecting SMU as much.
Point totals down to two over unders fifty five and
a half. Like, how do we because if you look,
if you've watched these two teams, SMEU is very clearly
the better team than Clemson and it's not even remotely close.
Clemson hasn't been able to sniff their best opponents all season,
(03:24):
and we just saw them lose by three points to
South Carolina. So is it just as simple as SMU
is the better team, They'll get in and we won't
have to have this conversation.
Speaker 3 (03:34):
I'm kind of of two minds about it, where.
Speaker 2 (03:39):
The SMU thing, I there's part of me that has
some pity for them if they get left out there's
part of me that I tweeted out kind of before
the rankings came out that SMU should be safe with
a loss next week.
Speaker 3 (03:53):
But I don't think that that's.
Speaker 2 (03:54):
Going to be the case. But here we are, and
now I'm starting to get a little that annoyed at
the pre crying for SMU going on all over the place,
and it's like, you know what, you play a Clemson
team that's not very good.
Speaker 3 (04:08):
They got whooped by Louisville.
Speaker 2 (04:10):
They lost thirty four to three to a Georgia team
that lost to an Alabama team that you're arguing you
should be in over if you lose. So not to
do college football math, it's not exactly the most linear
thing all the time. But I do think that that's
worth bringing up, that Clemson is. I don't think Clemson's
one of the twenty best teams in football this year
(04:32):
so across the country. So they might win the game,
they might get in, You're right, I think they would
be just about the worst team in the field, if
not the worst.
Speaker 3 (04:38):
Team in the field.
Speaker 2 (04:40):
And with SMU, I'm starting I heard Brice kind of say,
your SMU, your playoff game is this.
Speaker 3 (04:48):
Weekend, and I kind of agree.
Speaker 2 (04:51):
There's part of me that's kind of moving to there
and kind of feeling less sympathy the longer we go
here and the more I'm hearing people cry about it.
Speaker 3 (05:00):
That's fair, That's kind of where I'm landing.
Speaker 1 (05:02):
No, I think that's fair because everybody's starting the pre
built in excuses right to say, well, SMU should be in,
or they shouldn't be in, whatever it may be, just
go out and win the damn game, and I think
they will. I think the two points spread is actually
I think that's actually incredibly disrespectful. Now, look, they haven't
played the best opposition in the last two weeks in
Virginia and Cal, but they've shown that the defense is
(05:24):
getting better the offense clearly. Look if they had started
the season with Kevin Jennings at quarterback instead of Preston Stone,
we're potentially talking about an undefeated SMU team, and still
their only loss is by a few points to BYU.
It's still a remarkable season. But if you saw the
way the committee treated in Miami in Tuesday's rankings, look,
(05:48):
it's it's very clear the ACC in the Big twelve
have no favor and if you they're kind of right.
If you look at the broad the broader picture here
of the four conferences, the SEC is I think the best.
There's no like elite elite conference this year that you
could say this one's clearly better than the rest. The
Big Ten has a very very solid top four, and
(06:11):
then you know the rest is kind of man and
then the ACC. You know, Syracuse is getting better, I
guess helps their overall totality. But the thing you run
into is not all these teams are playing each other
because the conferences are now so big, because the alignment
is a thing. So now you're running into this issue
(06:32):
of well, yeah, at the top of these conferences are good,
but how many of these teams have played each other?
And you look at clemson schedule. They played Louisville and
got run off the field at home in a game
they needed to win because they were climbing back up
to the fringe of the playoff. At that point, to me,
it just feels like SMU, they're playing the better football,
they are the better team. I think two points is
(06:54):
just wildly disrespectful.
Speaker 2 (07:03):
Talking on mute, I just realized there, I'm having a
weird fan verse kind of gambling weekend coming up here,
and I'll get into that when we talk about some
of the seeding potential stuff and notre names involvement and
all that in the five to six seed. But putting
that aside, on Monday, I was setting up my bets
for the week, and SMU was setting up to be
(07:24):
one of my favorite bets of the whole week, whether
that be you know, Packers on Thursday night, SMU Arizona State.
I had a couple favorite bets that I kind of
had labeled, and that's when I saw Beef Ryan Coyle
send in you know, the prices on the playoff on Twitter.
That's where I saw Bama was plus one hundred early
on Monday morning, and I immediately started firing away text
(07:45):
to Tanzy and Beef like, am I a crazy person?
Or is there any difference between betting that SMU money
line and betting Bama to make the playoff at plus
one hundred? Within twenty four hours that bet was at
minus two sixty five. Now it's sitting around like my
three ninety five or something like that. So I feel
like I kind of made my SMU bet already with
(08:07):
Bama to make the playoffs. So I'm not gonna double dip.
I'm rooting for SMU. If you're asking me to play,
I would make if I didn't get that bet in,
it's absolutely SMU minus too. I wouldn't worry about the
money line. I would just lay the points. I think
they're gonna win the game. I think they win the
game handily.
Speaker 1 (08:23):
Yeah. I mean, if you look at Clemson's three most
notable games this year, They've only played two ranked opponents. First,
they got run off the field by Georgia, okay, fair,
first game of the season, whatever, But then totally put
up fourteen against South Carolina, which real quick sidebar. I'm
glad we kind of eliminated that cool forty eight hours
where everybody thought South Carolina would get in the playoff.
(08:44):
Like it was just the most ridiculous thing ever. The
rankings have told you what South Carolina was. They weren't
going to be able to jump Bama and Ole Miss,
and they potentially could have not jumped Miami because of
where they fell. I think it's just the silliest thing.
Maybe if had they shown up against Ole Miss, then
(09:04):
you could make a case, well, maybe you know, the
games were coin flips against Alabama and Ole Miss. And
let's be honest, that Alabama game didn't become competitive until
the second half. There was a really crazy swing at
the end of the second quarter that just sucked all
the life out of Alabama and that's how that game
got close. And Bama just never recovered. And I think
that's also an indictment on Alabama, but we'll get to
(09:25):
that when we see them in the first round of
the playoff next week. But South Carolina was never getting in.
They needed miracles on top of miracles to happen. They
did in Mississippi State to win. They needed Auburn to win.
They probably may have needed a little more help because
of how Miami was going to play into that picture
if teams had lost. I mean, we saw it with
Indiana a few weeks ago as well, So to me,
(09:48):
that conversation was all unnecessary, Like it was either Alabama
or Miami and that's it. But anyway, guns and being
able to kind of no show against Louisville, no show
at least offensively against South Carolina, and no show against Georgia. Look,
they're a very good team, but they're not a great team.
(10:09):
They're not an elite team. And I don't think there
are any elite teams this year in college football. I
think that's why the playoff is going to be so fascinating,
because we don't know there are teams that you think
are elite. But hell, we thought Ohio State going into
this past week was going to be one of those
teams and they completely just completely dropped the ball at
(10:31):
home against Michigan. So and I think that potentially applians
to Oregon this weekend as well. Do we know they're
that elite? Do we know they're number one? Or is
it just because of the way their schedule broke? Yeah,
you could. I'll say this The best way to describe
it is, you can poke more holes in resumes this year. Yeah,
from from top to bottom than you more than you
(10:54):
have in any previous year of four team playoff, twelve
team playoff, whatever it may be.
Speaker 2 (11:00):
Yeah, I mean, you don't have twenty nineteen LSU, you
don't have Deshaun Watson, Trevor Lawrence, Clemson, you don't have
you know, whatever Saban Bama team you want to use,
the DeVante Smith team, whatever team you want to use.
A recent memory, it does feel like we've had one.
Speaker 3 (11:16):
Of those every year.
Speaker 2 (11:17):
I would say last year, I don't know if we
necessarily had that elite team. We had Michigan, Alabama, and Georgia.
I think all group together. Alabama played Michigan do a
close game, and then Michigan got lucky to have the
I think the bracket broke out, that Georgia got left
out of that whole thing that kind of get lost,
got lost in the whole Florida state getting left out.
Speaker 3 (11:35):
But yeah, it's the thing with Oregon.
Speaker 2 (11:39):
There's a chance you're right, there's a chance that they're
not an elite team, and the schedule propped them up
that way, and then I think there's a chance that
we're not treating them lead enough. I'd also sure, I
think there's a chance that they might be clear and
ahead of some of these other teams. And you look
at the odds, not a difference between those top four
teams odds wise in terms of the title. It's not
(12:01):
like Oregon's, you know, markedly ahead of anybody. So I
think there is a chance they're the one team I
would say has the chance to be that elite team
this year where we look at we look back and
they're sixteen or yeah, I guess it would be seventeen
to no. If they won the Big Ten Championship and
then won the National Championship.
Speaker 3 (12:19):
We would look back and be like, man, that was
an elite team. But you're right. I mean it's gonna
go either way.
Speaker 2 (12:26):
Either Oregon wins it all and we called them the
elite team that we should have saw the whole way,
or Oregon loses at some point we say they were
never elite.
Speaker 3 (12:33):
Their schedule kind of propped them up that way.
Speaker 1 (12:36):
So let's talk about Oregon. They're playing Penn State in
the Big Ten Championship game this weekend. They're a three
point favorite over under fifty. Came in Annapolis if James
Franklin wasn't Penn State's head coach, and I saw this
Penn State roster in totality and the performances they've put together,
(12:58):
even for parts of the Ohio State game, I bet
Penn State. Look. I know it's crazy to think because
you look at the history is screaming right in the fate,
right at you in the face. James Franklin only has
one win against top five opposition. But if you look
in this matchup specifically, what did Dan Lanning do with
(13:22):
his elite team. Last year he lost twice, not once,
but twice to the National Championship runner up in Washington.
I know we've keeps a ton of praise on Dan
Lanning and what the job he's done in Oregon, But
what has he done to prove he's in that Kirby Smart,
Nick Saban level?
Speaker 3 (13:40):
Yet he hasn't. No, You're absolutely right.
Speaker 2 (13:44):
People have wanted to put him there for a long time.
He's not in that who The only retort I'd have
to that is that there's only.
Speaker 3 (13:51):
One guy in that right now in this playoff, and
it's Kirby.
Speaker 2 (13:56):
And that's the advantage you have to give Georgia no
matter what happens on Saturday.
Speaker 1 (14:00):
With Texas.
Speaker 3 (14:01):
Not to get into a Texas story, I think we'll
talk about that in a bit.
Speaker 2 (14:04):
But everybody else, you've got to prove something. James Franklin,
what have you done? Marcus Freeman, what have you done?
Dan Lanning?
Speaker 3 (14:11):
What have you done? I mean the list goes on
and on. Jeff Hippel.
Speaker 1 (14:16):
Sark, I mean, Ryan d certainly hasn't done anything.
Speaker 3 (14:20):
Certainly, hey, I coached six, you can google him.
Speaker 1 (14:24):
He wins.
Speaker 2 (14:25):
But I don't know if if he's at that level.
You know, I don't know who I who I missed
going through the teams.
Speaker 3 (14:30):
They're Kalen de Boor.
Speaker 1 (14:34):
But at least he got to the National Championship Game
last year. That does that give him. But I think
that to the whole point I'm making about Penn State
Oregon is not only do we have a lack of
an elite team, a lack of elite head coaches recompoint
to like they're the difference maker outside of Kirby Smart.
Elite quarterbacks just aren't in the field this year. It's
(14:57):
just for whatever reason, the season broke. You know, Carson
Beck at the beginning of the year, he was supposed
to be the big deal. Well, it turns out Lad
mcconaughie and Brock Bowers, because of the seasons they're having
in the NFL as well, were the reasons why Georgia
looked that good last year, and deservedly so. Those two
are having a ton of success in the NFL. But
(15:19):
if you look across the board here, you're ranking Drew
Aller pretty high in quarterbacks in the top twelve. I
think it's I just don't know, like.
Speaker 3 (15:35):
Is Gabriel the best quarterback in the field, though.
Speaker 1 (15:37):
I don't know that's what I'm is it Jaln Milroe right.
Speaker 3 (15:43):
It isn't for me. I would go Gabriel over Milroe.
Speaker 1 (15:46):
But that's the thing to me is like I can't
stand here and clearcut say team A or Team B,
or quarterback A or quarterback B is head and shoulders
above the rest.
Speaker 3 (15:59):
No, definitely not.
Speaker 1 (16:00):
And I think that's what makes the Big to the
Big Ten and the SEC championship game so fascinating, is
and let's just lump them together because they both mean
so much in the SEC. You've seen so many flaws
from Carson Beck this year, and it was, let's be honest,
it was a miracle for them to get past Georgia Tech.
Speaker 2 (16:21):
And by the way, Tony stat on Carson Beck, I
hate being like the Carson Beck guy because I hate
I always played this year leading passer and leading touchdown
quarterback out of all the teams that would be in
the playoff right.
Speaker 1 (16:32):
Now, which is insane.
Speaker 3 (16:35):
It kind of goes to show your point there for sure,
and then look.
Speaker 1 (16:39):
Look you have you have Quinn yours, who's at least
been in the play he's been in the playoff game,
but he's not elite elite. He looks broken right now,
right and he kind of is. He's dealing with the
ankle injury. Cam Ward's probably the best talent wise, and
he's not going to be in the playoff. So if
you look down this this list of quarterbacks, let's do
(17:02):
it quickly, it's it's Dylan Gabriel, Quinn Yours, Drew Aller, Riley, Leonard, Carson, Beck,
Will Howard, Niko Yama, Java, Kevin Jennings, I, Curtis work
Maddox Madson at Boise State, but their offense runs through
Ashton Genty and he's too, And you have Jaln Milroe.
(17:23):
And then it's either Levitt from Arizona State or Rocko
Beck at Iowa State. None of them, none of them
are early quarterbacks. So to me, is is it the
I think we talked about this last week. Is the
elite positional unit or the elite difference maker on offense?
(17:43):
Is that how these games are gonna get won? Or
is it the elite defense? Like Texas I think is
starting to to get into that category. I think that's
the difference this year. I think it's the elite running
backs or tight ends, and I know Oregon has that,
and look, I'm kind of tainted because I have blue
(18:03):
and blue and white glasses on pretty much every Saturday.
But if you look at Penn State and they're two
running backs and their world class tight end and their
defense with a top five pick coming off the edge,
you're telling me they're not in the mix as like
a top four title contender. I know James Franklin is
the black cloud hovering over this entire team, but if
(18:25):
you objectively look at the team, the talent on the team,
and not the head coach, this looks like a title contender.
Speaker 2 (18:34):
I'm a little bit more skeptical of Alor in general.
He'd rack pretty low on some of the stat kind
of qualifiers among the quarterbacks of this group. And the
Minnesota game really sticks with me. That defense did not
look like the defense I kind of signed up for
when I was pushing Penn State the first half of
the year against the Minnesota team, that it's not. They
(18:55):
can't really run the ball, so it was all through
the air, and I thought that that was concerning. So
to me, I'm looking at Penn State kind of in
a similar way that I'm looking at Notre Dame as
a team that I don't think and when the play,
I think they could win a game or two.
Speaker 3 (19:08):
I think their drawl is really going to matter.
Speaker 2 (19:11):
But for for this game specifically, part of me wants
to say, this is kind of a prove it spot
for Oregon where it's like, if you're this elite rolling
ball of chainsaws that I think you could be if
things work out right and you know your team is
what you think it can be and what your team
has been at times this year, then Oregon should come
(19:34):
out and handle this game and prove.
Speaker 3 (19:37):
That they're, you know, the big dog.
Speaker 2 (19:40):
But then there's part of me saying, if Oregon loses,
they're the five seed, Like, is Oregon even coming into
this game, you know, super fired up, like they have
a kind of a spot cinched in that would be
even better I think than their one seed. I'm not
saying that they're tanking for the five seed. What I'm
saying is I think that the motivation level might be different,
(20:01):
Like this is Penn State's I know everyone said like
if not now when when Penn State played Ohio State,
and I was very loud at the time saying, guess what,
their goals are still in front of them if they
lose that game, and here we are, their goals are
still in front of them, and you could say that
they show up to that game and this is the
culmination of their season, The culmination of this whole era
(20:24):
is finally winning the Big Ten, finally beating a top
five opponent, and.
Speaker 3 (20:29):
You don't have to go on the road to do it.
You do it, you know, in a neutral field.
Speaker 2 (20:34):
So I'm gonna be betting Oregon just off the strength
of how good I think this Oregon team can be
and is theyre might pick to win the title right now,
but it won't be a confident bet because I am.
It won't be a big bets kind of what I
should say, because of what I just laid out with
Penn State's motivation factor, I didn't give much of a
(20:57):
much of credence to that against Ohio State giving a
lot of it right now, and I do think that
that's why this line is three and a half three.
Speaker 1 (21:07):
I think the under is the way to go at
fifty points. I think if if Penn State's defense is
as elite as it is, and it could show it
in spots that it can be and if Oregon is
as elite as we think they are, and look, if
you want to pokepose an organ's resume, they did give
up thirty one points to Ohio State. So I probably
(21:30):
lean the under it's it's tempting to take Penn State.
Speaker 3 (21:36):
It is.
Speaker 1 (21:36):
It's very tempting, at least on my end, knowing that
it feels like almost no one's talking about them, and
maybe that's the motivation. Franklin taps into who knows that
they could just lay a massive egg and we're back
to the same mole. Okay, well, it's nice that you're
(21:57):
hosting a first round playoff game you're gonna win because
December and State College and the SEC teams aren't used
to that. What do you what are you gonna do
after that? Still, it could very much get to that point.
Speaker 2 (22:10):
So I kind of think it's interesting to lay it
out like this since I'm sure we're about to go
to the SEC Championship game and talk about that. I
almost think the SEC Championship and the Big Ten Championship
are like a parlay no matter what, like based on
how the seating is going to break out here, Like
I feel like I keep thinking of the Penn State, Georgia,
Penn State, Texas, Oregon, Texas, Oregon, Georgia, like the different
(22:33):
permutations of who's the one seed, who's the two seeds,
who's five through eight, who gets those home playoff games?
The ACC is kind of on its island with Alabama.
It's like, you know that whole Alabama is very interested
in that, but outside of that, not a big effect
on I think the seating we know SMU would drop,
whether that's two eleven or whether that's out. I think
(22:56):
it's probably out if they lost, but most likely or
the three seed and then the big twelve in the
Mountain West are their own thing where it's winning in
you know, we'll see you.
Speaker 3 (23:06):
We'll see you when you have to see the five
seed in the first right.
Speaker 1 (23:09):
One of them is the twelve seed. One of thom
is the four seed.
Speaker 2 (23:11):
That's it's like kind of taking care of it's fun
for betting purposes, like you know, do or die games,
and it's all I can't wait to watch. But the
real interest is with that SMU Bama thing that we
already covered. And then now kind of with the permutations
and do we want to kind of debate what the
seating would be in some of these scenarios. Let's say
(23:32):
the favorites one. Let's say Oregon and Oregon and Texas
win everything. Pretty I think that that's the scenario for
me as a Notre Dame fan. That lines up with
Notre Dame getting the Notre Dame spot as the committee
called it in the off season when they came up
with this spot the five seeds, and I think that
they would bump Penn State below Notre Dame. The debates
(23:55):
would start to be do you bump Penn State below?
Ohio State State beat Penn State Penn State took the
second loss in the conference championship. I think that would
start to be an interesting debate. But I don't think
Penn State slides past seven on the seed. It would
be they'd be five, six or seven. In this scenario,
(24:15):
I think it'd be six or seven. I think Notre
Dame goes to five. That's I actually think that's one
of the less chaotic scenarios.
Speaker 1 (24:23):
I could actually make a very strong case that it
obviously depends on how the games go, but I think
you could go if the if the two favorite win,
if we're going to Texas win, they're one and two.
I think you can make a case that Notre Dame's five,
Ohio State six, Georgia is seven, and Penn State because
(24:44):
and here's the logic behind it, Georgia went one and
one against the number two overall team in the country.
Speaker 2 (24:50):
That's a good point, but that's kind sactored in now,
and like they already have that win over Texas and
Penn State's well above.
Speaker 1 (24:59):
Them, but Georgia also has two losses.
Speaker 2 (25:02):
Yeah, I think Penn State would be safe from dropping
below Georgia unless unless it's avoid SEC matchups, avoid Big
ten matchups.
Speaker 1 (25:13):
There, I think the easiest thing for the committee to
do without arguing about who's seven through ten and all
this stuff, if you truly want SEC versus Big ten
in those games, I think it's a lot easier to
put Georgia at seven, Penn State at eight, and they go, Okay, Tennessee,
you're the nine, Indiana, you're the ten that fits in
(25:34):
line with how the rank, and then Bama ends up
being the eleven seed. Yeah, because them, Because I look
at the how everything is playing out, and the last
thing I want to see is Indiana, Penn State and
Georgia Tennessee. I don't. I don't want that. I don't
want any combination of all Big ten or all SEC matchup.
(25:55):
I want to straight SEC versus Big ten. And it's
very clear that Indiana is not jumping Tennessee. So Tennessee
and Indiana are in that order regardless, which means if
you drop Georgia to eight and you drop Penn State
to seven, then you're giving me Indiana and Penn State
and Tennessee Georgia. I've already seen Tennessee Georgia. I don't
(26:17):
need to see Penn State Indiana like I think. But
I think if the committee comes out onto on Saturday,
I'm sorry Sunday afternoon and says we ranked Georgia seven
and Penn State eight, and we've done that so that
we avoid in all SEC in an all Big ten
matchup because we've seen with the logic of we've seen
(26:40):
Tennessee versus Georgia before because Penn State didn't play Indiana
in the regular season. But if you have the data
point of we've already seen Tennessee versus Georgia, we want
a unique matchup. I think that goes over look college
footballs are still gonna get upset. That's just the nature
of how these things go. But I think you have
a lot more a lot more goodwill if you say, hey,
(27:04):
sez versus Big ten, we're worried about the first round.
We don't care how the quarterfinals matchup.
Speaker 3 (27:10):
Then let's say Oregon and Georgia win, Texas is the five.
I think.
Speaker 2 (27:17):
They love this Texas team. They did it before they
even had like a big win against A and M. Like,
I don't think they would put Notre Dame above Texas.
Speaker 1 (27:25):
I think they would.
Speaker 3 (27:27):
That would be great for me.
Speaker 2 (27:29):
But I really think because and I think Sanke has
been so loud about the conference championships not mattering for
them or not not mattering, but if not punishing them,
I don't know how far they can drop Texas.
Speaker 1 (27:45):
Six is their their floor. Yeah, six is their floor
because they would have two losses and then you can
justify Notre Dame one loss team, Texas two loss team,
and then slought the Marina Head Ohio State and be okay,
that's it's done and dusted. It's very at least it's
a very simple process from there. If if Oregon loses,
(28:06):
they're the five. They're the five. That's I think that's
pretty clear cut. And then the debate goes, well, who's
number one?
Speaker 2 (28:15):
I mean, I think it's Texas. It's Texas. If they win,
it's Penn State.
Speaker 1 (28:20):
Yeah, correct, because then you just have them straight in line.
And there's already a buffer between Penn State and Georgia
Notre Dame and the current rankings. So how does how
does two lost Georgia jump one lost Penn State if
they were both win. I don't think that's I think
that's messy.
Speaker 2 (28:37):
Pef was saying that, I don't think that they would. Yeah,
I mean, that's that's your Happy Valley porn scenario there
with with h what is it? So it's Penn State
and Penn State and text Penn State and Georgia you'd
have to win. That's your parlay out there if you want.
If you want, Penn State is the number one overall
team heading into the first twelve team playoff we've ever
(28:58):
had put in your Penn State and Georgia money line parlas,
because I think that doesn't and I.
Speaker 1 (29:04):
Think everybody on top of that, you know, just of
where the seeding plays out after Saturday, is also looking
into the potential matchups, but I think that's more from
a fans side of Okay, this is this team would
match up with this team, yadayada, YadA. I think that
what the committee is worried about is getting the right
twelve teams in, so in this case, the right eight
(29:26):
teams or seven really at large teams, and it comes
down to Alabama or SMU. If SMU loses, and I
think it's pretty cut and dry that Alabama's going to
get in over SMU. I'm sorry, like that's just kind
of the way things are. SMU, go win your championship game, which,
(29:47):
by the way, they did last year in the AAC.
It's also with point out to to kind of circle
back to the motivation point with Oregon, they lost the
Packfeld championship game last year. Does that in the back
of their mind at all? I know it's a different
conference for an opponent, but does maybe that kind of
reinforce I guess, at least the internal motivation of what
(30:07):
goes on up in Eugene this week.
Speaker 3 (30:10):
Yeah, it could.
Speaker 2 (30:12):
The motivation thing is kind of what I'm worried about
with both of the big games here. And I heard
someone say that I don't know where I heard it,
but the ACC Championship, the Mountain West Championship, and the
Big Twelve Championship are being helped tremendously by the twelve
team playoffs. The Big Ten and the SEC Championship definitely
feel smaller than they've felt in years past. And you
(30:34):
know what, I'm fine with that for the trade off
of forty games mattering in the past four weeks or
however many you want to say, we knew that there'd
be some games that would get devalued in this scenario.
It's kind of the SEC and Big Ten Championship, and
it's kind of why I'm not confidently betting either of them.
Like I initially loved Georgia early in the week, and
(30:55):
now that you think about it, like they're in no
matter what.
Speaker 3 (30:57):
They just had a gauntlet of a game.
Speaker 2 (30:58):
Against Georgia Tech against the arrival, Texas is riding high.
I have absolutely no read on the SEC title game.
You could tell me Texas blows out Georgia, Texas wins
a close one, Georgia whins a close one, Georgia wins
a blowout.
Speaker 3 (31:13):
Nothing.
Speaker 2 (31:14):
I have absolutely no read, no read on the total
no read on the side. I'm just gonna be sitting
back and rooting for Texas, to be honest, because I
do think it helps out Notre Dame. And we don't
even have to have the Texas Notre Dame to be
if Texas wins. So, as a Notre Dame fan, I
guess here's a scenario I'll throw at you, Tanzy or
not scenario just as a Notre Dame fan, what should
(31:34):
I be rooting for?
Speaker 3 (31:35):
Should I?
Speaker 2 (31:36):
There's obviously I should be rooting for the five seed
where you get the Mountain West and the Big twelve
combo in two weeks.
Speaker 3 (31:45):
Is it worse to.
Speaker 2 (31:46):
Be the sixth seed who plays Alabama probably in the
first round and then you'd have to play the ACC
champ in the second round? Or would you rather be
the seventh in a scenario that Oregon and Texas loss.
Let's say Penn State and Georgia win. They give Oregon
the five, they give Texas the six, and they give
(32:09):
Notre Dame the seventh. Would you rather be the seven
playing Indiana but having to go play the SEC champ.
Speaker 1 (32:16):
Nope, you don't want that. You don't want that in necessaria,
because Georgia is sitting there and Georgia's got the only
coaches one and Natty in the field. You don't want that,
you want? You want five seed or bust.
Speaker 2 (32:26):
Six seed is like, I don't want the sixth seed,
but I'll settle for it. Seventh seed is the night
the Happy Valley scenario I just gave with the Penn
State number one party, that's the nightmare scenario for Notre Dame,
especially at Texas, where to lose a close one and
they for sure get locked in over Notre Dame.
Speaker 3 (32:44):
We don't know.
Speaker 2 (32:45):
The one interesting part there would that would lock in
a Texas Alabama six to eleven game in all likelihood,
so they that might give them another reason to put
Notre Dame aboff Texas kind of to your point earlier,
and that would be Texas Indiana, and then it would
stay Ohio State, Tennessee in that eight nine. But that's
(33:05):
kind some people might feel like they need like a
pen and paper writing out all these permutations and scenarios while.
Speaker 3 (33:10):
We're talking along.
Speaker 2 (33:11):
But I do think it's fun to kind of have
these conversations before they happen, because one of the things
we just laid out is going to be the hot
button topic on Saturday night.
Speaker 3 (33:21):
The one fun thing is that we find out on
Sunday morning.
Speaker 1 (33:24):
The one thing we know for certain is people are
going to complain about how the black bracket is aligned
regardless of what happens on Saturday. Even even if Oregon
and Texas win and SMU wins and the top three
go to Chalk, there's going to be a debate about, well,
is is Notre Dame a worthy number five? You know,
should should Penn State in Georgia? You know the scenario
(33:46):
we kind of played out is who should be ranked
in front of who? And are they they serving the
conferences instead of actually doing something for the college football
fan by with the way they align them. I think
the the most fascinating thing to me is, look, I
if the favorites wins, if Oregon, Texas SMU win, the
(34:06):
fascinating thing to me is and this is something that
just it's a personal preference of mine. I want SEC
versus Big Ten. But are you gonna cater to just
how the rankings are and give us a Georgia Tennessee
rematch and give us Indiana versus Penn State? Or are
you gonna are you gonna play the rematch card and
say Tennessee and Georgia already played, we already saw how
(34:29):
that happened, and flip the four. They might.
Speaker 3 (34:34):
I think they might do it, but I don't think
they'll say it.
Speaker 1 (34:38):
Uh, you'd be surprised. I think that they might if
they get asked specifically about that.
Speaker 3 (34:44):
They will.
Speaker 1 (34:44):
They they might. It's it's a possibility, but I don't.
I don't think that's something they would they would say
right away. I think that's something ESPN has to like prompt,
you know, Rece Davis has to prompt word manual with
of Hey, why are these teams like this?
Speaker 3 (34:59):
I'll give Reese credit.
Speaker 2 (35:01):
And by the way, I think this has been like
this is like such a weird kind of segment to
do Reese Davis corner. I think this has been like
the year of Rees Davis. I feel like in years
past with College Game Day, I've like appreciatedly you know,
we always love Kirk.
Speaker 3 (35:16):
You know McAfee's first year there.
Speaker 2 (35:17):
I felt like we were like, Wow, what a phenomenon
with mcafeel on that show.
Speaker 3 (35:21):
This is the year where I'm like, man, Rece Davis
is the best. Like the monologue starts show.
Speaker 2 (35:26):
I listened to his podcasts now, but I actually think
the best work he does is talking to the to
the College Football Chair Committee chair at the end of
the year. He never takes it easy, like he drills
in on them last week, even when he was like,
so these teams aren't gonna move right like and Word
was like no, and He's like, you might have just
(35:47):
locked yourself into something there, but I'll hold you to it.
Speaker 3 (35:50):
Like a random little segment I had to do there.
But I think Davis is the best.
Speaker 1 (35:56):
Also that that Tuesday night show is an abomination. Like
the second the rankings, I turn it off. The amount
of like spin between Galloway and Booger and Greg McElroy,
the amount of spin they try and put on anything.
It's just like it feels like they're just making things up.
(36:16):
Because I mean the Indiana thing a few weeks ago,
I think Galloway said, oh, Indiana should should sit Curtis
Rourke because it does.
Speaker 2 (36:25):
Like although I do the same thing, it was a
little different because Aler was announces hurt, but it was funny.
Speaker 3 (36:32):
I did kind of do the same thing.
Speaker 2 (36:33):
When kenn State play Ohio State, I was like, they
should just sit Aler and if they lose, be like their.
Speaker 3 (36:37):
Quarterback was hurt.
Speaker 2 (36:38):
But that's a little bit different than saying a quarterback
is fully healthy should sit out.
Speaker 1 (36:43):
It was just like the most some of the most
baffling takes come from that, and there's nothing gained from it.
They just it's just unorganized yelling.
Speaker 3 (36:51):
I do like the internets with the committee.
Speaker 1 (36:53):
That yeah, you need that, you absolutely need that. But
the takes just fly and there they're really really.
Speaker 2 (37:00):
And then they go to Heather Dinich who spent the
entire weekend telling everyone like, oh, don't be so sure,
Miami's dropping below Alabama, Like the Committee has never dropped
the team more than x amount of spots with just
one loss, without the other team beating a rank TEA.
Speaker 3 (37:17):
And it's like, well, guess what they did.
Speaker 2 (37:18):
It they did so like we're gonna go to you
for ten minutes now to do on the telestrator thing
after you were dead wrong for the last forty eight
hours all over Twitter, like it's that whole broadcast.
Speaker 1 (37:29):
It's one thing. It's one thing to present facts of
what the Committee has done in the past, but you
also have to interject a little bit of kind of
opinion into those facts as well, because if you just
straight shoot those facts, well the records and trends are
meant to be broken.
Speaker 2 (37:43):
Yeah, and the All State Playoff predictor had Miami at
like a forty two chance on Saturday night.
Speaker 1 (37:49):
After this, well, if you go to the ESPN Playoff
predictor for your playoff odds, just in general, you need
to kind of reevaluate how you approach things with that.
Speaker 2 (38:01):
Chris Phallica, the Bear on Fox Sports one, He's like,
can ESPN bet offer a price on on on that
number there? Get minus one fifty or whatever it is,
because we know that they won't offer that because the
playoff predictors bs.
Speaker 3 (38:15):
He was like kind of railing on.
Speaker 2 (38:16):
His former employer there a little bit, but he was like,
let me tell you this. Let me tell you the
chances of my having making the playoff zero point zero
zero percent.
Speaker 1 (38:27):
Let's get into the games this weekend. There are nine
conference championship games. I'll go through all of them and
we'll start, you know, we'll just go chronological order. So
Western Kentucky plays Jacksonville State in the CUSA Championship. The
fascinating thing to me is rich Rod's down at Jacksonville State,
and there are there's a certain subset of West Virginia
(38:50):
Twitter that wants him back.
Speaker 3 (38:54):
That's awesome. I love it. I kind of love it.
Speaker 1 (38:57):
I love that. I'm like, I don't think that's the
way you want to go. Neither is is Dan Mullen
or you know, a Chip Kelly type. But this should
be a fun game like that. Yeah, he's good. I
think it's probably better if he stays in the TV booth.
There's a lot of young offensive minds that are probably
(39:17):
better options. I mean, look at Kittley went going to FAU.
That's a perfect type of higher at a mid major
level that in probably three to four years we're talking
about him as a Power five head coaching candidate. In
this game, with the offenses, it's very different. Jacksonville State
loves to run the ball. Western Kentucky loves to throw
(39:39):
the ball. This to me is going to be an
interesting game because they just played each other nineteen to seventeen.
Western Kentucky won. I lean the under in this game
at fifty seven and a half, just because I think
there is a lick of defense played on both sides,
and as much as you want a contrast with pass
(40:03):
orus run. Jacksonville State's run game is is very very good. Yeah.
Speaker 2 (40:07):
I don't have anything on any of the Friday night games.
The one that i'll kind of UNLV Boise obviously the
winning in game there.
Speaker 3 (40:16):
It's I didn't know this until this week.
Speaker 2 (40:18):
Is this a new Mountain WESTLN that they're playing the
conference championship at home? I?
Speaker 1 (40:22):
Yeah, I didn't realize that until this week either, because
it has been in Vegas. They did. Yeah, they've played
this one in Vegas.
Speaker 2 (40:28):
Yeah, and that's what when I was initially looking at this,
I was like, oh, no, it's Boise having to go
to Vegas here to play NLV.
Speaker 3 (40:34):
But no, it's at home. On the They're.
Speaker 1 (40:36):
Probably doing it to give the top ranked team in
the conference the advantage.
Speaker 3 (40:40):
Yeah, which I like. I generally actually think it's fine.
Speaker 2 (40:43):
I would be fine with that across all the across
all of them, to be honest. But the shame of
it is Boise really has not been nearly as good
down the stretch. You know, you look at like twenty
eight twenty one against the Nevada team, seventeen thirteen against
a bad Wyoming team.
Speaker 3 (40:58):
Even Oregon State kind of like a little laboring to
put them away and win by sixteen. UNLV.
Speaker 2 (41:06):
They play a lot of close games as well, Like
they already lost a game to Boise in that game
was in Vegas, so it's not like that was a
road game on the blue turf.
Speaker 3 (41:14):
They barely beat.
Speaker 2 (41:15):
Hawaii out on the island about a month ago, So
I'm staying away. But I think that there's gonna be
a lot of people who think Boise's free, if not free,
but like money Line Thunder money Line.
Speaker 3 (41:26):
So I think this game's coming down to the gun.
I would mean figuring it out, but yeah, close.
Speaker 1 (41:32):
By the way. In the AAC Championship game, Tullian is
at Army Games at West Point. Tulayan head coach Sean
Summerl is one of the hottest coaching candidates. Yeah, I
don't know if he'll go anywhere because he's it's his
first year at Tulane coming from Troy. Fun fact, he's
played the option offense three times in his coaching career
head coaching career, those teams have scored a collective nine
(41:55):
points on his defenses, including a thirty five to nothing
win over Navy this season.
Speaker 2 (42:01):
That's a pretty good stat I know. I know that
there's a lot of Kentucky fans. He was supposed to
be the Tuffy coach last year. A lot of Kentucky
fans dying for them to fire Mark Steps so they
can hire sum Roll before someone else does.
Speaker 1 (42:13):
Somebody will I don't know if. I don't know if
it's this year, but somebody will will hire. I don't
think North Carolina or West Virginia. Is is it worth?
It is basically what I'm saying. To get to that point, Well,
we'll see how the that goes. But Telaane minus five
is is my game. Playing that game. Talaian has been
playing incredible defense. It doesn't scare me that it's a
(42:34):
broad game for them, and the stats against the option
are pretty pretty strong as well. In the mac Miami
Ohio against Ohio. The only thing I have to say
about this is Ohio got rated in the transfer portal
and the fact that they're here is just simply incredible.
And unfortunately that game it kind of takes a back
burner to Iowa State in Arizona State in the Big Twelve.
Speaker 3 (42:57):
Yeah, and why did they put the Big Twelve game
at noon?
Speaker 1 (43:00):
It's been like that.
Speaker 2 (43:02):
That's so dumb, especially with now there's so many more
West Coast teams. I've love Arizona State in that game,
one of the best teams in the country against the spread.
I apologize for my voice to the people out there
fighting fighting through here. I'm questionable for this weekend, but
Arizona State only favorite bite two. They've been so good
against the spread. Kenny Dillingham I think should be the
(43:23):
national Coach of the Year.
Speaker 1 (43:24):
He's done a fantastic job. A weird situation playing out
in the Sun Belt. So Marshall is a six point
dog at Louisiana. Their head coach, Charles Hoff is apparently
without a contract for next year. That's a fun little wrinkle.
Former Nick Saban assistants done a pretty good job at Marshall,
(43:44):
so apparently there's some sort of internal conflict going on
there where he doesn't have a contract for next year
and he's in the Sun Belt championship game. So that's
that's the thing. But I think Louisiana wins that game.
They've been playing really, really, really good football of late.
A lot of teams in Louisiana have Tulane Louisian. You
can make a case LSU might be like the third
(44:06):
or fourth best team in their own state this year,
which is crazy, but it also speaks to kind of
the caliber program. And then you have Penn State Oregon
and Clemson SMU. I think we're both on on SMU,
We're both on Arizona State. I'm gonna take I'm taking Tulane.
It's very weird to see a conference championship weekend with
(44:27):
all spreads at a touchdown or less. Usually there's like,
and I guess this is this is heaping praise now
on the conferences for eliminating divisions, eliminating the ACC Coastal
and the Big Ten West, because all of a sudden,
you have teams that can compete, not five lost Pittsburgh
(44:47):
or eight and four Iowa coming in as as twenty
one point favorite. So I guess that's the That's the
fun wrinkle to how realignments reshape these things is now
that we no longer have in divisions in a majory
already at these conferences, we actually get the two best
teams and at least according to the spreads, competitive games.
Speaker 3 (45:07):
Yeah. No, it's gonna be a fun weekend for sure.
Speaker 2 (45:10):
It's a shame that I like I feel like I
don't have a lot of the I have my Bama
to make the playoffs take, which is basically an SMU.
Speaker 3 (45:16):
Money line take.
Speaker 2 (45:16):
But I don't have a lot of strong conviction on
any of the games besides Arizona State.
Speaker 1 (45:22):
Other than that, are there going to be any blowouts
among the power for.
Speaker 3 (45:27):
I think SMU.
Speaker 2 (45:28):
I think SMU would be the most likely, which I
think they might be the smallest spread, but I think
they might be the most likely.
Speaker 1 (45:34):
I think, as you might roll Iowa State, their offense
is playing so well. Levitt's kind of an underrated quarterback there,
and Cam Scataboo is the best player in that game.
Speaker 2 (45:45):
Yeah, I think Arizona State has a chance to I'm
not an Iowa State. I do feel like Iowa State
uglies up games to make them closer than even they
should be sometimes, But I really don't want Iowa State
in the in the playoff. I think they're incredible. I
think Arizona State's at least fun.
Speaker 3 (46:03):
I guess as.
Speaker 2 (46:04):
Someone who might be the five seed, I should want
Iowa State, but I think they stay.
Speaker 1 (46:07):
Yeah. Look if you're if you're the five seed in
any of these playoffs, scenarios. So in your case Notre Dame,
potentially Oregon, you don't want to see Arizona State. Arizona
State will at least muck it up and be competitive
where I think Iowa State is probably the worst possible,
at least in terms of the totality of the twelve
(46:28):
team field. To bolster the strength, I think Arizona State
has clearly shown that the best in the Big twelve. Yeah,
for sure, which is pretty clear. But I think Arizona
State SMU. I think on a money line parlay or
a spread parlay is kind of where for the most part,
the two of us in agreement, which means Iowa State,
it's gonna ruin that in the noon window. That's that's
(46:49):
how things go. But for Mark Henry Junior, I am
Joe Tansey, thank you again for listening all season. We'll
be back next week playoff preview. This is the first
time we get to do something like this, the first
round playoff preview with four games at campus sites happening
on the twentieth and the twenty first. Very excited to
break into that and guess what, the most wonderful time
(47:11):
of the year starts next Saturday. Ball season schedules a
little different because of the playoff, but Bowl season is
upon us and it's one of the favorite betting times
of the year, So tune back next week as we
break down the playoff. We finally have a bracket after
next week and this week, well it's either Alabama or SMU.
(47:31):
That's the big decision to be made. Thanks again for listening,
and best of luck on your bets. Spreads total, all
the prop BET's in the tweens. It's the gambler.
Popular Podcasts
Stuff You Should Know
If you've ever wanted to know about champagne, satanism, the Stonewall Uprising, chaos theory, LSD, El Nino, true crime and Rosa Parks, then look no further. Josh and Chuck have you covered.
24/7 News: The Latest
The latest news in 4 minutes updated every hour, every day.
The Joe Rogan Experience
The official podcast of comedian Joe Rogan.