December 19, 2024 • 46 mins
The Big Brains of Joe Tansey, Mark Henry Jr., and Ryan "BEEF" Coyle talk first round of the #CollegeFootballPlayoff that kicks off this weekend! They dive into #Indiana vs #NotreDame, #SMU vs #PennState, #Clemson vs #Texas, and #Tennessee vs #OhioState!
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
If you can wager on it, We're talking about it.
It's the Gambler, The Fox Sports Radio, The Gambler. Fox
Sports Radio in Philly is the Gambler. The Gambler, Philly's
home for all things sports gambling.
Speaker 2 (00:29):
Hello everyone, and welcome on in. It's the first twelve
team playoff. Let's get excited, well maybe get excited for it.
The point spreads may not suggest that there's close games
in store, but you know what, we're gonna try and
hope that at least but two of these games are competitive.
(00:51):
The first round of the college football Playoff Friday night
Indiana notre game Saturday SMU Penn State, CLEMS in Texas
and Tennessee and Ohio State a game that is a
house divided around these parts. So we'll get into that.
But first and foremost, guys, I know we talked about
this really briefly last week, Beef, what's your take on
(01:15):
these games having no spread lower than seven points? Is
it just how the back four that you know, the
nine through twelve seeds are this season? Do you think
it's reflective of home field advantage? What do you make
of three or sorry four spreads at seven points or
higher well, I.
Speaker 3 (01:34):
Think one situation, like at CLEMSIM, they probably shouldn't even
be in the playoff. I don't think anyone's saying that
they're one of the twelve best teams. That's kind of
the sticking point to me there. And then sure, I
definitely think home field advantage has to be lumped into it.
But also, like we've talked about Indiana all season, how
really good is Indiana? Are they eleven and one? Are
(01:55):
they just a product of their schedule or are they
a good team? And obviously these things I figure themselves
out throughout most of the year, and I assume they'll
figure themselves out as well in this first round.
Speaker 4 (02:05):
Yeah, I mean, how many years are we going to
get Indiana, SMU and Clemson, all of those types of
teams all in the top twelve. Obviously you're always going
to have I think the five twelve games always going
to be a big spread, because the twelve seed is
always going to be a team that's only in because
of a conference championship almost always, I would think, So
(02:26):
there's always going to be at least one game with
a big spread six to eleven. Yeah, we can you know,
always assume maybe there will be one team who gets
in with a week's schedule, but you would hope that
maybe there's two games that are, you know, really close spreads.
I think going forward, and I think if I had
to guess, that would be how it breaks out. I
also think one of the spreads is just wrong, to
(02:48):
be honest, and I understand that I'm with the public
on it. I think that there is a game that
should be an extremely close spread. In my opinion, I
think it's I think there's a game that should be
very up in the air.
Speaker 2 (03:01):
We're going to go in chronological order, but I think
the last one we talk about is going to be
the one that we all kind of have a pretty
hot take on. But let's start with Friday night, the
rare Friday night game in South Bend, Indiana between the
Hoosiers of Indiana, the ten seed an in state game
as well against the number seven seed Notre Dame. Spread
(03:22):
is seven and a half in favor of Notre Dame
and the over under is fifty one and the Indiana
money line currently sits at plus two thirty. And look,
there's two things we're going to point to in this matchup.
Is Indiana getting their doors blown off at Ohio State.
It's a thirty eight to fifteen game. They scored early,
they scored late. It really wasn't much in between, and
(03:44):
the Notre Dame just running through their schedule after the
Week two lost to Northern Illinois, which was looking back
on it, more of a blip on the radar than anything.
Can Indiana keep this game close? I think is the
big question mark in this game because we know what
Notre Dame is. There are known quantity and the one
(04:04):
game where Indiana was supposed to be a challenger against
Ohio State, they fell flat. And if you think Notre
Dame is a better team than Ohio State, well then
I think your decisions made up. What do you guys
think of the way this game will play out?
Speaker 4 (04:19):
Yeah, I think it's fair to bring up the Ohio
State game just because of the type of team that
Notre Dame is with the type of team Ohio State is.
I think both teams are physical, kind of running teams,
and I think you can expect them to try to
emulate exactly what Ohio State did to Indiana and try
to just beat them on the line of scrimmage, and
(04:41):
at a certain point, you know, We talked about it
the week.
Speaker 5 (04:44):
Of Ohio State.
Speaker 4 (04:45):
In the week after Ohio State, when Indiana played them,
it stops being you know, Siggs is a great coach.
Speaker 5 (04:51):
There might be a chance.
Speaker 4 (04:52):
In Indiana has a coaching advantage when it comes to
Siggs and Marcus Freeman. But at a certain point it
stops being about the x's and o's and starts being
about the Jimmy's and Joe's. And I think the Notre
Dame defensive line and offensive line is going to be
able to kind of dominate the line of scrimmage. I
think Notre Dame's going to be able to run the
ball and slow down the game, and I don't really
(05:14):
think Indiana is going to be able to run the
ball at all.
Speaker 6 (05:17):
On the other side, Yeah, when you look at Indiana
and their rush defense, I think that's been one of
the key points for them this year and why they
were able to have so much success.
Speaker 3 (05:27):
Teams weren't able to run on them. But you can
also look at it as they're a team that got
out to leads and a lot of big leads this
year that teams were forced to throw from the start.
One like a smaller Betdwalm in place on this game,
and I'll start off with I like Notre Dame to win.
I think that they're going to eventually cover the game
as well. But Indiana has been a really fast starting
team this year. Ten to one and one on the
(05:49):
first quarter money line. This year you get the plus
one sixty four. You've given them some extened rests. I
think they have a really good scripted first ten to
fifteen offensive place A little side bet there that I'm
looking at first quarter Indiana money line. We talked about
it already, but that first drive against Ohio State march
right down the field and looked like they belonged, and
then from there on it was wasn't much of a ballgame.
(06:12):
But that's a little side bet I'm looking at. But
I do like Notre Dame to win this one to
cover as well. Over this ten game win streak, average
margin of victory thirty points, six points per game, they've
been pretty dominant ever since Northern own line.
Speaker 2 (06:24):
Let me close this if you want to do the quarterback,
because when it comes to ball season, I'm all over,
like the half props and the team totals and stuff
like that. Indiana their first half team totals nine and
a half. Is that too much for you? Or if
you're playing that first quarter you just want to play
the first quarter money line.
Speaker 3 (06:45):
I just think they've been really good on those first
opening drives in the script then plays they've dominated. I
think they've won at least half of those first quarters
by double digits as well by ten or more.
Speaker 4 (06:56):
I know that you're loving the unders in the first
round of the playoffs. Is this one that you look
at with the potential for a little bit more of
an over than maybe Tennessee Ohio State or maybe Texas
Clemson Because I actually think I bet that I'm not
placing I backed off of placing it, but I do
think Notre Dame team total over twenty nine and a
(07:18):
half is worth a look you look at I mean
you just said it. The average just the margin of
victory has been thirty point six points since Northern Illinois,
let alone the amount of points they've been putting up.
You know they've had forty nine's fifty six is sprinkled
in there, and I do think there's a chance that
they pour it on at least offensively. Is that give
(07:38):
you any sort of pause with the total in this game.
Speaker 3 (07:42):
I just think the way that Notre Dame's gonna want
to play, they're gonna want to do with Tifton all
year and kind of just dominate with the running game.
The only hope I think that they could potentially have
for that is if Indiana's forced to throw and they're
down big and they've got to come up from behind
and throw the football. But Indiana's been really good at
taking care of the football this year. They haven't really
put it in harms way as much. I don't think
(08:04):
any of these games necessarily are going to be super
high scoring, so I probably stay away from that.
Speaker 2 (08:09):
All to the quarter odds real quick beef at Draftings Sportsbook,
you can bet on Indiana's first drive result punt minus
one thirty five. A field goal attempt they don't even
have to make it. A field goal attempt is plus
four point fifty a touchdown plus two forty five. So
to go to your fast start there, even if you
(08:31):
just want the drive itself and you don't want to
sweat out the first quarter money line, I think that's
the way to approach as well, because, like you said,
the scripted plays has been very good. They went down
the field in Ohio State in the first quarter. That's
something I think maybe if you want to explore the
crops on that bet instead of sweating out the first
quarter line, you could probably look into that one as well.
Speaker 3 (08:51):
Sign me up.
Speaker 2 (08:53):
I love it. I know Sean Brace will be nodding
in approval of that type of bet. I can't believe
in Indiana, like we've sat here and and praised Kurt
Signetti for the job he's done all season, but they
fell flat at Ohio State. And I personally think if
you look at the entire season, you could make a
(09:13):
case that Notre Dame is a better team than Ohio State.
I don't think that the differences are large between Notre
Dame and Ohio State, but with the way Notre Dame's
been playing defense and the way they've been putting up points,
I mean, I think that's the most impressive part. If
you look at the four units on the board here,
Notre Dames offense has been super consistent the entire season
(09:35):
since that Northern Illinois loss. I know, by the way
they've won some close games. If you want to call
you top twenty five Army Navy in Texas A and M.
They haven't played the best schedule, but they've beaten and
beaten pretty badly the three teams that on their schedule
that were top twenty five. I mean, even the A
and M game was a slog. It's still I think
(09:56):
ended up winning that game by ten points. So look,
I have to bet Notre Dame here at seven and
a half. I'm not scared of the hook. I think
they're just the far better team. It is gonna be
fascinating to have the conversation looking forward though, because on
the future lines they're favored against Georgia. That's gonna be
a fascinating discussion to have if we get to that point.
(10:17):
But I think Notre Dame just is the better team,
and Indiana kind of has to prove it to me.
If Indiana goes out and wins this game or covers
and keeps it close, then that's on me. But based
off of what I've seen in front of myself all
season from both these teams, there's no way I can't
bet Notre Dame here.
Speaker 4 (10:37):
I think I think that Notre Dame Georgia line is
gonna be totally dependent on how Notre Dame looks because obviously.
Speaker 5 (10:43):
That's the only data point that can change anything.
Speaker 2 (10:46):
But is it dependent on Carson Beck.
Speaker 5 (10:49):
I don't think he's They announced he was out for
the game, so.
Speaker 4 (10:54):
I don't think he's coming back for it. So I
think the only factor that can change is Notre Dame
if they look maybe not convincing and it went against Indiana.
If if you guys were ranking the four underdogs and
chances to win outright, where do they rank for you?
Speaker 5 (11:10):
Indiana's I think third.
Speaker 3 (11:12):
For me, probably put them second, Tennessee, Indiana, SMU, Clemson.
Speaker 4 (11:23):
I would go Tennessee, SMU, Indiana Clemson. I thought about
flipping Indiana and Clemson, but I think that's probably unfair to.
Speaker 2 (11:33):
I think that's the fair order from a neutral perspective.
But based on my taking in the Tennessee Ohio State game,
Tennessee would be four for me objectively whoa object objectively speaking, Yes,
the order is like unlikelihood of winning, it's Tennessee, SMU, Indiana, Clemson.
(11:53):
But my personal opinion on the the Ohio State Tennessee game,
I let Beef know last week what it is and
we'll get to that. But I don't think Tennessee has
a chance in hell of winning that game. But we'll
we'll get to We'll get to that in a minute,
because I think that's the most controversial game between the
three of us. Any other finals thoughts on any thoughts
on the total at fifty one, I'm a little iffy
(12:15):
on taking an under here just because Notre Dame has
been scoring on every drive and I think Indiana, if
you were to give me one bold prediction for this game,
I think Indiana backdoor is the over in the fourth quarter.
Speaker 4 (12:27):
The one thing I'll say is Notre Dames defense did
not look very good last week against or I guess
two weeks ago against USC and Mayava, they scored thirty
five points, and that's with two pick sixes in their
names own territory, like the USC drove for a lot
of yards in that game. If I'm worried about anything,
it's probably the passing defense in the secondary. Benjamin Morrison,
(12:51):
probably the best player on the team is out. Christian
Gray stepped into like a larger role. He was brutally
ended up having a pick six to kind of ice
the game, but was brutal up to that point. So
I think that's the one thing I would lean towards
the over here. I like that Notre Dame team total
over twenty nine and a half, though if I was
going to take a total, it would definitely be that
(13:13):
more than the total at fifty one. But luckily I
last night put in a Falcons Notre Dame money line
parlay that way, Falcons won. The first leg's done. I
can just focus on Notre Dame to win. I don't
have to worry about them scoring thirty. I don't have
to worry about them winning by eight. I can just
focus lock in on my irish to hopefully win a
(13:35):
big game.
Speaker 2 (13:36):
Here's the most important question I'm going to ask. Take
your objective hat off for a second. I know you're
very good at that confidence level on a scale of
one to ten that Notre Dame wins. Forget the cover
just as a fan mark. On a scale of one
to ten, how confident are you that they make it
to the quarterfinals.
Speaker 4 (13:54):
I'm pretty confident, I would say seven and a half
eight Like, I'm pretty Confident's seven and a half points
spread Like, uh yeah, yeah, I'd say I'm pretty comfort.
Speaker 3 (14:05):
I think they're gonna have to I think they're gonna
have to, Like hand Indiana the game. I don't think
it's a situation where Indiana's going to outplay them. Notre
Dame's is just gonna have to shoot themselves in the
foot multiple times. But who knows. They did lose to
Northern Illinois.
Speaker 2 (14:19):
Absolutely, I don't think we're gonna see that though. I
think I think Notre Dame is a well the machine
at this.
Speaker 3 (14:24):
Point spread this year as well.
Speaker 2 (14:28):
They are very good. Moving on to Saturday's games SMU
and Penn State, can we just dispel like the fact
that the teams are gonna melt in cold weather, first
and foremost, it doesn't get to twenty degrees in Texas,
but it's still cold in Texas in the winter. That's
how weather works. It's still cold in Knoxville. I think
(14:48):
people are maybe unless it's snows. I don't know if
there's snow in the forecast and Happy Valley on Saturday,
but cold is cold, like I don't think unless it's
gonna be negative fifteen, he's at the frozen tundra, which
they're not playing these games at. I don't think the
cold is going to be the reason why SMU or
Tennessee or loses a game. I just don't think so.
(15:11):
That being said, I don't think SMU stands a chance
against Penn State spread his eight and a half. The
total currently right now sits at fifty four At Drafting Sportsbook,
SMU is plus two fifty on the money line. I'm
taking the under. The under is my most confident play
in this game. At fifty four. Penn State has been
fantastic at home Defensively. I think that pass rush led
(15:35):
by Abdoll Carter, who can can he go top five market?
Speaker 3 (15:40):
Is that? Like?
Speaker 4 (15:40):
What's his seems like he's Yeah, it seems like he's
going top five. I don't think he's that much of
like a I won't have him as a top five,
top ten guy. Seems like that's where he is just
kind of as consensus in the industry.
Speaker 5 (15:55):
He's rose, He's risen up the boards.
Speaker 2 (15:58):
I mean this is like this is like a money
make three games for him?
Speaker 5 (16:01):
Oh yeah, for sure.
Speaker 3 (16:02):
More as the number one player.
Speaker 2 (16:05):
Wow did they really?
Speaker 3 (16:07):
Yeah?
Speaker 5 (16:07):
I knew, Yeah, I know that there's a lot of
a lot of buzz.
Speaker 4 (16:10):
I think the number one pick will be a quarterback,
and potentially even the number two pick, Uh and Travis
Hunter will probably be up there. He's probably right there
with like Ted McMillan, Will Johnson, a couple of uh
Mason Grant, maybe a couple of those other guys right
at the tops.
Speaker 3 (16:28):
Probably that's probably the main reason they figured that there's
untapped potential there, right.
Speaker 2 (16:34):
I think it's a money making a few weeks for
Abdell Carter, Tyler Warrens, I think already made his money.
I think he's going in the first round pretty confidently,
and Drawler is coming back. Like everything for Penn State
has has been settled in terms of the future. The
Perbula situation the backup quarterback is I guess a little
(16:56):
frustrating because you do use him in in certain situations,
But how many gimmick players are you really going to
use in the playoff? And I think you kind of
have to put those to the wayside and really just
focus on what you're good at. So I don't know
how much they're actually going to miss from going to
the transfer portal. And that's a whole conversation for another
(17:16):
day of how the schedule aligns with the transfer portal
and college football playoff. That's a whole other you know,
we can talk about that in the offseason if we
really need to. I just I think Penn State's defense
is very good. I think SMU while also very good
as a team, I don't know if they can step
(17:37):
up to the caliber of a top ten Big Ten team.
I think you're gonna see the same thing with the
Clemson against a top five SEC team. I think Penn
State is just going to handle business at home. I
can see a very methodical, like thirty to ten type game.
If there's one thing you do know when Penn State
now looked last week in the Big Ten Championship, I
(17:59):
think was the exception or Oregon forced their hand and
they had to play a high scoring game. Usually in
these types of games, Penn State wants to just methodically
drive the ball down the field. You won't see a
pass more than what twenty five yards, and even that's
even with Tyler Warren in the field. Penn State's wide
receivers aren't really that impressive. I think that's pretty easy
(18:23):
statement to make. They'll make it one or two plays,
but the playmakers are Tyler Warren the tight end, and
your two running backs Singleton and Allen. And if the
wide receivers are making a play, it's probably because Drewaler
is making a fantastic throw to them. But Penn State's
gonna methodically drive the ball down the field. They're going
to take time off the clock. I just don't see
how you get to fifty four points when Penn State's
(18:44):
gonna just kind of shove it in their face of
what they're good at and SMU is going to have
limited possessions, and we saw they got a little flustered
at the start of the ACC Championship game. They somehow
came back, but I don't think the door is going
to be open for them to come back against Penn State.
I think you do see a very methodical win, just
(19:06):
like you've seen James Franklin's team do against a lot
of these teams at least beneath them in the right
I don't call us in you a lesser opponent, but
teams beneath Penn State the rankings they usually under Franklin
get the job done.
Speaker 3 (19:20):
Yeah, James Franklin fifty eight and six straight up as
a home favorite, ninety two and sixteen straight up as
a favorite in general. So these are the games that
kind of reminds me of obviously higher stakes right now,
but reminds me of that game against West Virginia in
Week one. It was like a lot of people were
on West Virginia in that game, but that was just
a typical James Franklin. Penn State wins those games. The
(19:42):
other games where they're a dog, different story, obviously, But
if you're okay with biting some juice in this one,
Penn State moneyline parlad with Notre Dame money line, you
get that to minus one twenty eight if you're all
right with biting a little juice on their start off
your Friday and Saturday with just a straight up win,
and then could roll over those winnings into the later games.
(20:02):
But I like Penn State in this one too. The
offense has been humming. You said it, Joe, like they
were kind of forced to play from behind in that
organ game. But they've scored thirty five or more in
four of the last five games. And maybe aler I know,
he had a couple of interceptions, but maybe that was
a good thing. That's kind of been his main right.
I think, like his turn or his lack of like
(20:25):
big time throws, being able to make huge game changing
type of throws. He was forced to go out there
and risk it a little bit. Last week tested a
little bit. I think that might have opened up some
some more options there for Penn State going forward and
build some confidence. So I really like Penn State and
this one. I don't think this one's going to be
necessarily close. I'm probably not gonna bet the spread. I'll
(20:46):
probably take the under in this and I think I'm
gonna do that Nerved Dame Penn State moneyline Parla.
Speaker 2 (20:52):
Here's what I'll suggests, because we're talking a lot about
Penn State and their defense. SMU under two and a
half team touchdowns at Draft King Sports Book, not the
team total one points team touchdowns. If you look at
the home games, just the home games in State College
thirty four to twenty seven against Bowling Green is the
kind of the exception to the rule. They Kent State
(21:13):
that it is the worst team in the FBS got
shut out. Illinois only scored seven points. UCLA scored eleven,
and that was only boosted by a garbage time touchdown.
Ohio State only scored twenty points in Happy Valley, Washington six,
Maryland seven. Penn States defends their home turf very well.
I think if the SMU scores, it might not be touchdowns.
(21:35):
I think you get to a point in this game
in the fourth quarter where you're feeling pretty confident with
that prop under two and a half touchdowns for SMU.
Speaker 4 (21:42):
I'm on the opposite side here of both. I like
SMU to keep it close. I got it at plus
nine before it dipped back down to eight and a half.
I have serious concerns about the Penn State defense, and
I'm also on the over. Give me SMU plus nine
and also give me over at fifty three and a half.
Last four games Penn State has played have went over.
(22:04):
Four of the last six games SMU has played have
went over. You look at the amount of points SMU
has been putting up forty eight, thirty eight, thirty three,
thirty eight.
Speaker 3 (22:12):
Thirty one.
Speaker 4 (22:13):
And I know everyone loves Drew Aller right now, I'm
still pretty relatively low on Drew Aller when it comes
to the consensus that's out there. And I feel like
people were losing their minds about that Oregon game. He
was twenty for thirty nine with multiple interceptions, and he
made some big plays.
Speaker 5 (22:28):
For sure.
Speaker 4 (22:29):
The big story from that game was Penn State. Allen
had nine yards to carry. Singleton had almost eleven yards
to carry. Aler had almost eleven yards per carry on
eight carries with him running the ball himself. So I
don't think SMU is going to be giving up quite
as many yards on the ground. I think part of
that was Oregon got up pretty early and we're kind
(22:51):
of willing to kind of concede a little bit of
that running game. And when Penn State tried to go
to the air, I think you saw some of the
issues out wide. I kind of walked I feel like
a lot of people walked away from that Big Ten
Championship game maybe kind of encouraged that they hung with Oregon.
I kind of walked away more thinking that that defense
(23:11):
is a serious problem. They gave up forty five to Oregon,
and I felt like Oregon could have scored more. I
felt like they kind of got conservative in the second half.
And then I think this dates back to the Minnesota game,
giving up twenty five to Minnesota. I thought that they
struggled with USC defensively earlier in the year, and I
know we mentioned all the home opponents. I think that
the home opponents were pretty rough offensively, like the UCLA's
(23:34):
and the Marylands of the world, and even Illinois is
not a team that I think is going to light
it up. It depends where you're at on SMU. I'm
not even necessarily that high on SMU. So this is
more kind of skepticism in Penn State than anything else.
But I guess I'm kind of saying prove it to
Penn State a little bit.
Speaker 2 (23:54):
That's fair. I think there's a lot of teams out
there this weekend that need to prove it because there's
Oregon and Georgia sitting ahead, and I think a lot
of people still need to prove it from Georgia next
week as well. The one thing I'll say is if
you are in the fine state of New Jersey, the
greatest state on the planet Earth, which I will be
on Saturday, look into Nick Singleton's rushing propsy. What they've
(24:19):
done this year with the running back tandem of Singleton
and Allen. Allen's gotten a bulk with the carries middle
of the season. They saved Singleton for this specific part
of the season if you look, and I think he
was a little dinged up, but he only had six
carries against Ohio State. He only had seven against Washington
and Purdue in each game, but they've rammed him up
over the last few games. Thirteen for sixty three against Minnesota,
(24:42):
thirteen for eighty seven and two touches against Maryland, and
then average ten and a half yards per carry against Oregon.
I think he is the bell cow in this game.
And if you look into props, I'm not sure. I
don't have him in front of me because I'm currently
in Pennsylvania, but if you are in New Jersey, take
a look at Singleton prop to score a touchdown as well.
I think he is the bell coal in this game.
(25:04):
Alan will get his carries for sure, but I think
they're going to unleash Singleton for this moment. We all
know about Tyler Warren the wide receivers, Like I said,
man not so great. If imagine if penn State could
actually grab one of those guys in the portally. It
thought they had that with Julian Fleming, but it turns
out there's a reason why he was buried on the
depth chart at Ohio State. I look at Nick Singleton,
(25:27):
He is the X factor in this game.
Speaker 3 (25:29):
Yeah, they did just get that guy from USC Hudson.
I believe his name is so potential. Finally a good
wide receiver there for Penn State.
Speaker 2 (25:38):
If there's one thing that if there's one thing they
always complain about at Penn State is the lack of
the wide receivers. They've always had tight ends, they've always
had running backs, but that flashy kind of number one
wide receiver has kind of been been lacking them for you.
Speaker 4 (25:52):
Notre name as a similar similar issues with wide receiver.
For a long time, they were great at developing wide receivers.
Golden Tate, Michael Floyd, will Fuller, there's a bunch of
other guys.
Speaker 2 (26:05):
Whatever happened to will Fuller by the way, Oh he
had a very very sidebar.
Speaker 5 (26:09):
He had an amazing game, tested positive and was never
heard from again.
Speaker 2 (26:13):
It's like it's like they banished him.
Speaker 5 (26:15):
Yeah, it really is a shame.
Speaker 4 (26:17):
His ankles were also like the worst ankles in the
history of the sport. Every time he would have a
good game, he would hurt his ankles. But there were
other names, I'm forgetting in there. For a long time
they were really good at developing wide receivers. I think
even I forget who it was, but there's a head
coach out there now that was a wide receiver coach
for Notre Dame in that stretch.
Speaker 5 (26:36):
I forget who it is, but.
Speaker 4 (26:39):
It seems like the last decade or maybe a little
bit less than that. Though it's been the same way
with Notre Dame. You can't really find a lot of
that outside talent.
Speaker 2 (26:47):
Let's move on to Clemson in Texas. The biggest spread
on the board, it's twelve points. The over under is
fifty two. Look, this is just a personal crusader of
mine to not see Davoswinny on my TV after Saturday.
I did not want to see Dabo swinning on my
TV after the a SEC Championship. And then the self
(27:07):
righteous nonsense just kind of kept in and like I
don't need to hear it. We've the the curve on Dabo,
Like when clemsoning was a thing and they were like, oh,
they're the lovable losers. They can't get over the hump.
We kind of felt bad for Dabo, and then they
won national championships and like they peaked and now we're
at like that, we're going back down on the roller
(27:29):
coaster where it's like, Okay, we've seen enough of Dabo.
We don't need to see Clemson anymore. He's starting starting
to be insufferable with not entering the transfer portal on purpose.
And I think we're at that point now where like
if Clemson loses, I wouldn't I would not be opposed
to seeing them kind of drift off into the sunset
for like two or three years.
Speaker 3 (27:50):
I think this is the game most that the Texas
is going to have to hand Clemson the game. I
don't see a scenario where Clemson goes out there and
outplays them at all. It's going to be queen you
Wers go out there and has two to three boneheaded interceptions.
And that's the thing I'm kind of most interested to
see on Saturday, Like if Texas starts slow, if you
were start slow in the first half, first quarter, does
(28:10):
he get the hook for Arch and see what happens
from there. But this Texas defense is just too good
that I don't think Clemson any stretch is going to
be able to go out there and outplay them. It's
just going to have to be self inflicted wounds from
Texas in this one. When you look at Texas in
their defense number two scoring defense at only twelve point
four points per game, only allowed twenty or more in
three games this season, and they ranked third in total
(28:32):
defense at about two hundred fifty yards per game. The
defense is just awesome and it's going to keep them
in this game regardless. Offense, though has been struggling. Quinn
hasn't looked great since really returning from his injury, only
averaging twenty one point seven points per game over their
last four. So a little bit worried there about the
Texas defense. I'm probably not going to take the twelve,
(28:52):
but it's another situation where I really like the under
because I think Texas defense is that good and I
think that the offense for Texas is a little bit too.
Worries fome the trust them the score points right now?
Speaker 4 (29:03):
Yeah, I this is the game I have the least
opinion on. I'll be rooting for Texas. This is kind
of like, you know, people love the upsets in March
Madness when when you get twelve or thirteen, but they
don't realize that it ruins the Sweet sixteen or ruins.
Speaker 5 (29:18):
The ely eight, like if we.
Speaker 4 (29:20):
Need to have Texas playing the winner of Oregon vers
the eight or nine like Oregon Tennessee Ohio see any
comment state, Yes, I'm saying, we need Texas to win
this game and next game, in my opinion, for it
to be interesting. And you can say the same for
(29:40):
Notre Dame to get to Notre Dame Georgia. You can
say the same for Penn State to get to Penn
State playing the winner of Notre Dame Georgia. Like, if
you're saying we want the best matchups later on and
we want to make sure that we're kind of determining
the best team as the champion, then we should be
kind of rooting for these at least. I think all
the favorites we've talked about so far to win their games.
Speaker 2 (30:02):
I agree with Beef, the under is to play in
this game fifty two. I'm surprised it was that high.
Texas's defense they've been holding teams. Yeah, to totals in
the teams. Look at that Texas Georgia game. The game
went to overtime and still got under, although it got
to be a little bit nervy once it got to
overtime A lot. The worst thing in college football is
(30:25):
betting and under having your game good overtime. I think
we've all been there before with that, But I think
the under is the play. I would even probably feel
confident in putting Texas minus twelve on my card. I
just think they're the better team, and look, the best
unit on the field is Texas's defense. I think Kate
club Nick struggles a lot in this game. But the
game against SMU, I think is completely different from the
(30:47):
matchup they're going to face against Texas. It's gonna be
far less wide open. And I think that the biggest
You mentioned arch Manning there, Beef. The biggest question is
do we see arch Manning in the second half. Do
they preserve when you were because he's been banged up
this season? Do we get a little bit of a
Arch Maybe they say, hey, hang around because the transfer
portal is looming. I don't know if he'll go, but
(31:11):
there's enough intrigue out there right unc they need a quarterback.
We talked about that last week. What's the move there?
But regardless of what happens in the portal, I think
we do see Arch in the second half at some point,
and maybe that leads to a little bit of rustling
statement using him in the rush game, but not much
as a passer so far. So I think that also
(31:31):
lends itself to the under I think this game is
going to be over though, probably by the third quarter.
Speaker 3 (31:36):
Well, you seem very confident in Notre Dame, very confident
in Penn State, very confident in Texas, and it sounds
like you're very confident in Ohio State as well. Would
you be confident enough to parlay those four winners plus
one ninety four?
Speaker 2 (31:52):
No, absolutely not. I know so much. I know better
than that in college where it's to parlay the four favorites,
because there's gonna be one. I don't know which one.
I don't feel confident in any of the four underdogs,
but there's always gonna be one. That makes it very nervous.
So no, I will not do that. But if you
(32:14):
are interested in doing that, a Notre Dame, Penn State, Texas,
Ohio State gets you to plus one ninety four at DraftKings,
Notre Dame, Penn State, Texas gets you to plus one nineteen,
So that that I think you could consider. But the
Tennessee Ohio State game, I feel like.
Speaker 3 (32:32):
Some people is going to say everywhere everyone's take.
Speaker 2 (32:36):
One hundred or it's either going to be the three legs,
the first three favorites, and like Tennessee spread or something
like that. You're gonna see a lot of cards out there,
and look, there's a chance this goes chalk, right. I
mean you look at at least with Indiana, SMU and Clemson,
they've all got flaws and I think they can be
explored in those matchups. But I think that the leg
(32:56):
that you have to worry about if you do a
four leg on a game is in Tennessee, Ohio State,
because I think at least some people, not me, but
some people think that's gonna be a close game.
Speaker 5 (33:08):
I definitely start it off first.
Speaker 2 (33:10):
Yeah, I think that. Yeah, And look, let's segue into it.
Let's intro this spread Tennessee, Ohio State. It's down seven
and a half at draftkickings. It's been fluctuating between seven
and seven and a half over under forty six and
a half. The balls are plus two thirty five on
the money line. I will open the floor to both
of you first on Tennessee because that's where at least
(33:31):
you two are aligned.
Speaker 5 (33:33):
Yeah.
Speaker 4 (33:33):
I love Tennessee plus seven and a half in this game,
and I'm less a lot less bullsh on who's gonna
win the game. To me, I think it's a total
fifty to fifty toss up. I really do think it's
gonna come down to, you know, a field goal or
maybe six points. I don't think either of these teams
get to twenty one. I think this is twenty to fourteen,
seventeen to fourteen, seventeen to.
Speaker 5 (33:55):
Ten type game.
Speaker 4 (33:57):
So in my opinion, if you're Tennessee, I really think
think all you need to do is get to fourteen points,
and I think you're going to cover that seven and
a half. I think when the bracket first dropped, I
was kind of out there saying Tennessee's going to beat
Ohio State, and part of that was just it. I've
been pretty high on this Tennessee team for a while,
(34:18):
But more than anything, I'm just bullish that this is
going to be a good game.
Speaker 5 (34:21):
This is going to be a close game.
Speaker 4 (34:23):
ESPN and you know, the NCAA, the college football cogniticente
out there once and needs this to be a close game,
especially if some of these first two to three games
go how I.
Speaker 5 (34:34):
Think that they're going to go.
Speaker 4 (34:35):
But the main reason that I like Tennessee is just
Dylan Samson fourteen hundred and eighty five yards rushing for
six yards to carry twenty two touchdowns. I think he
might be one of the more under talked about guys
in college football there rushing for twenty two touchdowns and
almost fifteen hundred yards. He's also somewhat of a factor
in the passing game with twenty catches as well. Like
(34:57):
I think he's the type of guy that's going to
keep Tennessee in the game at the very least.
Speaker 5 (35:03):
So I really really like Tennessee to at least just
keep it close.
Speaker 3 (35:07):
Yeah, I think that's the most interesting matchup of the day,
that Tennessee rushing offense versus O High State rushing defense.
Both are top ten in the country. Which one wins.
That I think is going to win this game. But
I don't know if it's just that I've had a
close eye on this Tennessee team all year, but we
talked about multiple times. In that Oklahoma game, you saw
(35:28):
them kind of take their foot off the gas in
terms of the offense and go to a bit more
conservative style. I'm in the camp that I think that
they're going to open it up a little bit more
in the playoffs, and they're gonna have to if they're
gonna make a run at this thing. They're gonna have
to step up and be able to make some throws.
And you I point right to that Alabama game. They
had five to six deep shots and Nico only hit
two or three of them. But that's all he needed.
(35:50):
That's all that team needs. With how good the defense
is and how good the running game is, he just
has to be able to step up and hit a
few big throws. And the game I was at the
Kentucky game, he threw a few lasers. He also had
a couple really nice plays to drop touchdown passes in
that one. His numbers haven't been that great this year,
but I think there's some kind of misleading stats in
there as well, Like he's looked really good over these
(36:11):
past three to four weeks, and I think he's playing
really confident right now. And I'm in the camp as well.
I think Ryan Day is a coward. I think Ryan
Day is spineless, and I can't wait to see them
pan over to his face when Tennessee's up ten to
nothing early in the first half and the Boo Birds
are coming down. I like Tennessee to go into the
Horseshoe and win this game outright. And move on to
(36:31):
the next round.
Speaker 4 (36:32):
By the way, if you look at passing yards per
game and things like that, Nico is having like almost
the same season Aler is having if you look at
the stats.
Speaker 5 (36:41):
But if you look at the way Aler's being.
Speaker 4 (36:43):
Talked about coming into these playoffs compared to Nico, I
feel like it's completely different. And I think I feel
about the same about both of them.
Speaker 3 (36:50):
I saw Alyssa had Aller as the number one quarterback,
and I don't necessarily believe that Oregon's gonna make the
run to win it all. But Dylan Gabriel is out there.
He's the number one quarter back in this colle football playoff.
College quarterback, not necessarily pro, but you can't deny what
doing Gabriel has been doing recently.
Speaker 2 (37:07):
Yeah all right, Mark, I want to see your face
when I say this, because you're going to be flabbergasted.
Ohio State's winning this game by three touchdowns.
Speaker 5 (37:19):
I mean, yeah, you said it already, got it?
Speaker 2 (37:21):
Yeah, I'm doubling down. Look, if you have a spine,
if you have any type of motivation left in your team,
if you're Ohio State, you go out and prove they don't.
That's what everybody's saying. But if you have that inside
your locker room, you go beat the breaks off of Tennessee,
(37:42):
this multi million dollar roster that was supposed to be
the number one team in the country. If that's what
you are, you win this game and deliver a massive
statement to the entire country that you can win a
national championship. And it starts with a home game against
an SEC tam who, by the way, hasn't been that
great on the road this season. They've shown some weaknesses.
(38:07):
Like you said that Tennessee has kind of taken the
foot off the gas on offense. That's what exactly left
them as in the twenty five to fifteen game against
Oklahoma wasn't exactly impressive. Vandy jumped on them early before
Tennessee pulled away, and their two losses came on the road.
You have a young quarterback going on the road in
(38:27):
a tough environment. If it's a tough environment depending on
who you believe against, a veteran quarterback and Will Howard,
who I don't think he's great, but he has elite
talent around him with Judgkins at running back, with Buca
and Jeremiah Smith at wide receiver, I think Ohio State
has a massive, massive game delivers a statement. And look,
this is called gambling, right, I'm taking a gamble here.
(38:50):
We would Look, we think Ryan Day is a spineless
coward and is going to get fired after this game.
A lot of people think that, and that's why Tennessee
is gonna be an incredibly popular underdog, the only underdog
that the public's going to get this entire weekend in
the college football playoff. I'm gonna flip that. I think
Ohio State blows them out. They have the top ranked
defense in the country. Oh, by the way, we're not
(39:12):
just talking about this offense with all these studs. This
defense ranks first in scoring defense, first in total yards allowed.
That's gonna be a really tough place to play for
a young quarterback and offense that has struggled on the road.
And look, I know the Michigan game a complete embarrassment
for Ohio State. Defense, still help them the thirteen points.
(39:34):
The defense wasn't the problem that day. It was the
offensive execution. And also play calling was awful. If you're
Chip Kelly too, dude, throw the ball, don't run right
into the gut, because if you do the same thing
against Tennessee that you did against Michigan. You can't get
the same result. I think they aired out. I've been
(39:54):
pinpointing this guy for a few big games now, a Mecca.
Agbuka one of the most experienced wide receivers. These wide
receivers left in the College Football Playoff, you can bet
player props. I would bet him. I think he has
a massive day. I think you feed him ball. Jeremiah
Smith kind of shows off as well. I think Ohio
State wins. This is gonna be very unpopular taking my
(40:15):
own household, but Ohio State I think wins by three touchdowns.
Speaker 4 (40:20):
I think part of why Chip was running so much
in that game is because they're afraid to pass rush
with all the O line injuries that they have, and
I think that especially I think that could be a
problem against James Pearce, who everyone loves that Dual Carter
and I.
Speaker 5 (40:33):
Feel like got Dual Carter's jump James Pierce.
Speaker 4 (40:35):
I still think James Pierce is the best ad rusher
prospect in this upcoming draft class. So I just think
that you look at last time Ohio State lost this season,
they didn't respond. They came out and they lead an
Egg at home against Nebraska, they won twenty one seventeen,
and we're on the border of losing that game at
the very end. I just think that this team doesn't
(40:59):
have I have that kind of fight in them. I
don't believe in Ryan Day. But it's less about that.
I think this is just a styles make fights matchup.
I think this is seventeen fourteen, twenty to seventeen, low scoring,
really legit. Two legit defenses. And you'll notice when I
talk about the Ohio State why I'm not in on
Ohio State has.
Speaker 5 (41:20):
Nothing to do with the defense. That's a legit defense
right there, for sure. But I think the Tennessee defense
is legit too.
Speaker 4 (41:26):
I think these are two of, if not d two
best defenses in the college football playoffs.
Speaker 3 (41:31):
I think if you think you can match for sure
what Michigan did in terms of the defensive side and
make that a really ugly game. Now they actually have
a quarterback that can throw a forward pass as well.
You probably just need one really good drive from Nico
in that offense, and I think you'll be in shape
because I think the defense and the field positions are
(41:51):
going to be pretty good in this one. Just the
way the defenses are playing, You're just gonna have to
be able to capitalize on one drive and one thing
that I'm keeping my eye on for Tennessee eighty eighth
in the country in the red zone, not great red
zone offense, so you've got to be able to finish
the drives if they want to pull off this up step.
Speaker 2 (42:08):
Now, if you think I'm a complete and total idiot,
which a lot of people will if they hear this,
take the under in this game. Both of these defenses
are very good. If you think I'm a complete idiot
in Ohio State has no spine left, the under is
the plan. I still might take the under. I think
Ohio State defense is that good and they might hold
Tennessee to like ten points. But I think if you
(42:29):
don't have a side, if you're not passionate about Tennessee
or Ohio State, take the under in this game. That
you have two top five defenses going on each other.
I know it's not what you want to hear for
a playoff first round game that's probably going to be
the closest of the four, but this one's going to
be low scoring.
Speaker 5 (42:47):
I agree, I like the under. I'm not going to
bet it.
Speaker 4 (42:49):
I decided I'm going to keep it. I don't want
to muddle it. Just focus in on Tennessee plus seven
and a half, big big play there, but under forty
seven would definitely be my play.
Speaker 2 (42:59):
So if I'm if I'm really streamlining my take, I'm saying,
like thirty one to ten, I'll call my shot there.
Ohio State wins thirty one to ten, my bold prediction
comes my bold prediction comes true, and the underhits.
Speaker 4 (43:12):
I'll say seventeen fourteen. Tennessee wins, Ohio State misses a
kick to tie the game.
Speaker 5 (43:18):
The Senator over time college.
Speaker 2 (43:20):
Kickers need to screw up this weekend.
Speaker 3 (43:21):
By the way, yeah we need seventeen involves if you
want to move it, Joe to DraftKings only, lets you
move it to minus nineteen, but you can get them
at plus th eighty six.
Speaker 2 (43:33):
I'm not going to do that.
Speaker 5 (43:34):
That's only.
Speaker 2 (43:34):
Yeah, that's why I'm not gonna move it.
Speaker 3 (43:37):
Yeah, yeah minus eight if you took tennis State plust nineteen.
Speaker 2 (43:43):
So I'm gonna hold off on betting like an outlanda
spread and keep them at seven and a half. But
but yeah, that's that. Any other takes on the non
playoff bowl games. I know Beef and I talked about
Memphis last week. I think we're both on them. In
the prestigious Frisk Bowl against West Virginia, I guess real quick,
(44:04):
some things you need to know for these games. Let
me pulp the actual bowl game names and then we'll
get out of here. The Boca Ratumble, Western Kentucky JMU.
Western Kentucky's quarterback Caden Vllcamp is in the portal but
is playing, so that's something worth noting.
Speaker 1 (44:21):
There.
Speaker 2 (44:22):
Cal at UNLV and the La Bawl. Cal's quarterback Mendoza
opted out. UNLV is now flipped to a three point favorite.
Georgia Southern plays Sam Houston New Orleans Ball. Sam Houston's coach,
Casey Keeler is off to Temple very very good, higher
by the way. And then you have Friday, the Cure
Bowl Ohio and Jacksonville State. Both teams lost their coaches.
(44:43):
I lost theirs to Charlotte britch Rod now back at
West Virginia. And then Tulane in Florida and the Gasparilla Bowl.
Thirteen point favorite is Florida Darien Mensa, Tulane's starting quarterback,
has transferred to that official to Duke guys yep, which
is weird because because Malik Murphy actually had a decent season.
Speaker 5 (45:03):
Speaking of Duke, do you know where Malik Murphy went?
Speaker 2 (45:07):
Did he commit?
Speaker 5 (45:08):
Yes?
Speaker 2 (45:09):
Where do you go?
Speaker 5 (45:10):
He went to?
Speaker 3 (45:12):
Uh?
Speaker 4 (45:12):
Wait, I just sent it to Beef and Kentucky, Kentucky. Okay,
I got confused because it was in It was going
to be Auburn apparently, and then Jackson Arnold went to Auburn,
so he went to Kentucky.
Speaker 2 (45:23):
Speaking of Auburn, did you see Zach Calzada's name popped
up in the He actually might go to cal because
Brian Harson got hired at Cal as their oc oh
how to court the college football world turns.
Speaker 5 (45:37):
I don't know if we got to the Christmas Eve one.
Speaker 4 (45:40):
I did kind of look at USF plus three and
a half against San Jose State. Nick Nash is like
the best receiver in the country on San Jose State
and he opted out, So it's just it's based on
very little. But I just feel like San Jose State
probably doesn't have a ton offensively besides Nick Nash.
Speaker 3 (45:57):
I got here, but I got three quick plays before
I hop out. Georgia Heyler minus six, un LV minus
three in Ohio minus three and a half. And I
will talk to you boys next week.
Speaker 2 (46:07):
I will, and we'll end it on the note that
the odds are minus one hundred thousand, that I will
sit on my couch Christmas Eve and enjoy the ever
living hell out of the Hawaii Bowl. That is one
of the traditions. They cannot take away from me, Christmas
Eve and the Hawaii Bowl. They can take away the
Egg Bowl and Thanksgiving Eve, Mark, Jimmy, but you can't
(46:27):
take away the Hawaii Bowl on Christmas Eve. Looking forward
to that, looking forward to the playoff, Mark Henry Junior.
Ryan beef Court will be back talking about the quarterfinals
later on after Christmas. For myself, Joe Tansey, best of
luck on your plays and we'll talk to you after
the first round.
Speaker 1 (46:46):
Spreads total all the prop that's in the tweens.
Speaker 2 (46:49):
It's the Gambler.
If you can wager on it, We're talking about it.
It's the Gambler, The Fox Sports Radio, The Gambler. Fox
Sports Radio in Philly is the Gambler. The Gambler, Philly's
home for all things sports gambling.
Speaker 2 (00:29):
Hello everyone, and welcome on in. It's the first twelve
team playoff. Let's get excited, well maybe get excited for it.
The point spreads may not suggest that there's close games
in store, but you know what, we're gonna try and
hope that at least but two of these games are competitive.
(00:51):
The first round of the college football Playoff Friday night
Indiana notre game Saturday SMU Penn State, CLEMS in Texas
and Tennessee and Ohio State a game that is a
house divided around these parts. So we'll get into that.
But first and foremost, guys, I know we talked about
this really briefly last week, Beef, what's your take on
(01:15):
these games having no spread lower than seven points? Is
it just how the back four that you know, the
nine through twelve seeds are this season? Do you think
it's reflective of home field advantage? What do you make
of three or sorry four spreads at seven points or
higher well, I.
Speaker 3 (01:34):
Think one situation, like at CLEMSIM, they probably shouldn't even
be in the playoff. I don't think anyone's saying that
they're one of the twelve best teams. That's kind of
the sticking point to me there. And then sure, I
definitely think home field advantage has to be lumped into it.
But also, like we've talked about Indiana all season, how
really good is Indiana? Are they eleven and one? Are
(01:55):
they just a product of their schedule or are they
a good team? And obviously these things I figure themselves
out throughout most of the year, and I assume they'll
figure themselves out as well in this first round.
Speaker 4 (02:05):
Yeah, I mean, how many years are we going to
get Indiana, SMU and Clemson, all of those types of
teams all in the top twelve. Obviously you're always going
to have I think the five twelve games always going
to be a big spread, because the twelve seed is
always going to be a team that's only in because
of a conference championship almost always, I would think, So
(02:26):
there's always going to be at least one game with
a big spread six to eleven. Yeah, we can you know,
always assume maybe there will be one team who gets
in with a week's schedule, but you would hope that
maybe there's two games that are, you know, really close spreads.
I think going forward, and I think if I had
to guess, that would be how it breaks out. I
also think one of the spreads is just wrong, to
(02:48):
be honest, and I understand that I'm with the public
on it. I think that there is a game that
should be an extremely close spread. In my opinion, I
think it's I think there's a game that should be
very up in the air.
Speaker 2 (03:01):
We're going to go in chronological order, but I think
the last one we talk about is going to be
the one that we all kind of have a pretty
hot take on. But let's start with Friday night, the
rare Friday night game in South Bend, Indiana between the
Hoosiers of Indiana, the ten seed an in state game
as well against the number seven seed Notre Dame. Spread
(03:22):
is seven and a half in favor of Notre Dame
and the over under is fifty one and the Indiana
money line currently sits at plus two thirty. And look,
there's two things we're going to point to in this matchup.
Is Indiana getting their doors blown off at Ohio State.
It's a thirty eight to fifteen game. They scored early,
they scored late. It really wasn't much in between, and
(03:44):
the Notre Dame just running through their schedule after the
Week two lost to Northern Illinois, which was looking back
on it, more of a blip on the radar than anything.
Can Indiana keep this game close? I think is the
big question mark in this game because we know what
Notre Dame is. There are known quantity and the one
(04:04):
game where Indiana was supposed to be a challenger against
Ohio State, they fell flat. And if you think Notre
Dame is a better team than Ohio State, well then
I think your decisions made up. What do you guys
think of the way this game will play out?
Speaker 4 (04:19):
Yeah, I think it's fair to bring up the Ohio
State game just because of the type of team that
Notre Dame is with the type of team Ohio State is.
I think both teams are physical, kind of running teams,
and I think you can expect them to try to
emulate exactly what Ohio State did to Indiana and try
to just beat them on the line of scrimmage, and
(04:41):
at a certain point, you know, We talked about it
the week.
Speaker 5 (04:44):
Of Ohio State.
Speaker 4 (04:45):
In the week after Ohio State, when Indiana played them,
it stops being you know, Siggs is a great coach.
Speaker 5 (04:51):
There might be a chance.
Speaker 4 (04:52):
In Indiana has a coaching advantage when it comes to
Siggs and Marcus Freeman. But at a certain point it
stops being about the x's and o's and starts being
about the Jimmy's and Joe's. And I think the Notre
Dame defensive line and offensive line is going to be
able to kind of dominate the line of scrimmage. I
think Notre Dame's going to be able to run the
ball and slow down the game, and I don't really
(05:14):
think Indiana is going to be able to run the
ball at all.
Speaker 6 (05:17):
On the other side, Yeah, when you look at Indiana
and their rush defense, I think that's been one of
the key points for them this year and why they
were able to have so much success.
Speaker 3 (05:27):
Teams weren't able to run on them. But you can
also look at it as they're a team that got
out to leads and a lot of big leads this
year that teams were forced to throw from the start.
One like a smaller Betdwalm in place on this game,
and I'll start off with I like Notre Dame to win.
I think that they're going to eventually cover the game
as well. But Indiana has been a really fast starting
team this year. Ten to one and one on the
(05:49):
first quarter money line. This year you get the plus
one sixty four. You've given them some extened rests. I
think they have a really good scripted first ten to
fifteen offensive place A little side bet there that I'm
looking at first quarter Indiana money line. We talked about
it already, but that first drive against Ohio State march
right down the field and looked like they belonged, and
then from there on it was wasn't much of a ballgame.
(06:12):
But that's a little side bet I'm looking at. But
I do like Notre Dame to win this one to
cover as well. Over this ten game win streak, average
margin of victory thirty points, six points per game, they've
been pretty dominant ever since Northern own line.
Speaker 2 (06:24):
Let me close this if you want to do the quarterback,
because when it comes to ball season, I'm all over,
like the half props and the team totals and stuff
like that. Indiana their first half team totals nine and
a half. Is that too much for you? Or if
you're playing that first quarter you just want to play
the first quarter money line.
Speaker 3 (06:45):
I just think they've been really good on those first
opening drives in the script then plays they've dominated. I
think they've won at least half of those first quarters
by double digits as well by ten or more.
Speaker 4 (06:56):
I know that you're loving the unders in the first
round of the playoffs. Is this one that you look
at with the potential for a little bit more of
an over than maybe Tennessee Ohio State or maybe Texas
Clemson Because I actually think I bet that I'm not
placing I backed off of placing it, but I do
think Notre Dame team total over twenty nine and a
(07:18):
half is worth a look you look at I mean
you just said it. The average just the margin of
victory has been thirty point six points since Northern Illinois,
let alone the amount of points they've been putting up.
You know they've had forty nine's fifty six is sprinkled
in there, and I do think there's a chance that
they pour it on at least offensively. Is that give
(07:38):
you any sort of pause with the total in this game.
Speaker 3 (07:42):
I just think the way that Notre Dame's gonna want
to play, they're gonna want to do with Tifton all
year and kind of just dominate with the running game.
The only hope I think that they could potentially have
for that is if Indiana's forced to throw and they're
down big and they've got to come up from behind
and throw the football. But Indiana's been really good at
taking care of the football this year. They haven't really
put it in harms way as much. I don't think
(08:04):
any of these games necessarily are going to be super
high scoring, so I probably stay away from that.
Speaker 2 (08:09):
All to the quarter odds real quick beef at Draftings Sportsbook,
you can bet on Indiana's first drive result punt minus
one thirty five. A field goal attempt they don't even
have to make it. A field goal attempt is plus
four point fifty a touchdown plus two forty five. So
to go to your fast start there, even if you
(08:31):
just want the drive itself and you don't want to
sweat out the first quarter money line, I think that's
the way to approach as well, because, like you said,
the scripted plays has been very good. They went down
the field in Ohio State in the first quarter. That's
something I think maybe if you want to explore the
crops on that bet instead of sweating out the first
quarter line, you could probably look into that one as well.
Speaker 3 (08:51):
Sign me up.
Speaker 2 (08:53):
I love it. I know Sean Brace will be nodding
in approval of that type of bet. I can't believe
in Indiana, like we've sat here and and praised Kurt
Signetti for the job he's done all season, but they
fell flat at Ohio State. And I personally think if
you look at the entire season, you could make a
(09:13):
case that Notre Dame is a better team than Ohio State.
I don't think that the differences are large between Notre
Dame and Ohio State, but with the way Notre Dame's
been playing defense and the way they've been putting up points,
I mean, I think that's the most impressive part. If
you look at the four units on the board here,
Notre Dames offense has been super consistent the entire season
(09:35):
since that Northern Illinois loss. I know, by the way
they've won some close games. If you want to call
you top twenty five Army Navy in Texas A and M.
They haven't played the best schedule, but they've beaten and
beaten pretty badly the three teams that on their schedule
that were top twenty five. I mean, even the A
and M game was a slog. It's still I think
(09:56):
ended up winning that game by ten points. So look,
I have to bet Notre Dame here at seven and
a half. I'm not scared of the hook. I think
they're just the far better team. It is gonna be
fascinating to have the conversation looking forward though, because on
the future lines they're favored against Georgia. That's gonna be
a fascinating discussion to have if we get to that point.
(10:17):
But I think Notre Dame just is the better team,
and Indiana kind of has to prove it to me.
If Indiana goes out and wins this game or covers
and keeps it close, then that's on me. But based
off of what I've seen in front of myself all
season from both these teams, there's no way I can't
bet Notre Dame here.
Speaker 4 (10:37):
I think I think that Notre Dame Georgia line is
gonna be totally dependent on how Notre Dame looks because obviously.
Speaker 5 (10:43):
That's the only data point that can change anything.
Speaker 2 (10:46):
But is it dependent on Carson Beck.
Speaker 5 (10:49):
I don't think he's They announced he was out for
the game, so.
Speaker 4 (10:54):
I don't think he's coming back for it. So I
think the only factor that can change is Notre Dame
if they look maybe not convincing and it went against Indiana.
If if you guys were ranking the four underdogs and
chances to win outright, where do they rank for you?
Speaker 5 (11:10):
Indiana's I think third.
Speaker 3 (11:12):
For me, probably put them second, Tennessee, Indiana, SMU, Clemson.
Speaker 4 (11:23):
I would go Tennessee, SMU, Indiana Clemson. I thought about
flipping Indiana and Clemson, but I think that's probably unfair to.
Speaker 2 (11:33):
I think that's the fair order from a neutral perspective.
But based on my taking in the Tennessee Ohio State game,
Tennessee would be four for me objectively whoa object objectively speaking, Yes,
the order is like unlikelihood of winning, it's Tennessee, SMU, Indiana, Clemson.
(11:53):
But my personal opinion on the the Ohio State Tennessee game,
I let Beef know last week what it is and
we'll get to that. But I don't think Tennessee has
a chance in hell of winning that game. But we'll
we'll get to We'll get to that in a minute,
because I think that's the most controversial game between the
three of us. Any other finals thoughts on any thoughts
on the total at fifty one, I'm a little iffy
(12:15):
on taking an under here just because Notre Dame has
been scoring on every drive and I think Indiana, if
you were to give me one bold prediction for this game,
I think Indiana backdoor is the over in the fourth quarter.
Speaker 4 (12:27):
The one thing I'll say is Notre Dames defense did
not look very good last week against or I guess
two weeks ago against USC and Mayava, they scored thirty
five points, and that's with two pick sixes in their
names own territory, like the USC drove for a lot
of yards in that game. If I'm worried about anything,
it's probably the passing defense in the secondary. Benjamin Morrison,
(12:51):
probably the best player on the team is out. Christian
Gray stepped into like a larger role. He was brutally
ended up having a pick six to kind of ice
the game, but was brutal up to that point. So
I think that's the one thing I would lean towards
the over here. I like that Notre Dame team total
over twenty nine and a half, though if I was
going to take a total, it would definitely be that
(13:13):
more than the total at fifty one. But luckily I
last night put in a Falcons Notre Dame money line
parlay that way, Falcons won. The first leg's done. I
can just focus on Notre Dame to win. I don't
have to worry about them scoring thirty. I don't have
to worry about them winning by eight. I can just
focus lock in on my irish to hopefully win a
(13:35):
big game.
Speaker 2 (13:36):
Here's the most important question I'm going to ask. Take
your objective hat off for a second. I know you're
very good at that confidence level on a scale of
one to ten that Notre Dame wins. Forget the cover
just as a fan mark. On a scale of one
to ten, how confident are you that they make it
to the quarterfinals.
Speaker 4 (13:54):
I'm pretty confident, I would say seven and a half
eight Like, I'm pretty Confident's seven and a half points
spread Like, uh yeah, yeah, I'd say I'm pretty comfort.
Speaker 3 (14:05):
I think they're gonna have to I think they're gonna
have to, Like hand Indiana the game. I don't think
it's a situation where Indiana's going to outplay them. Notre
Dame's is just gonna have to shoot themselves in the
foot multiple times. But who knows. They did lose to
Northern Illinois.
Speaker 2 (14:19):
Absolutely, I don't think we're gonna see that though. I
think I think Notre Dame is a well the machine
at this.
Speaker 3 (14:24):
Point spread this year as well.
Speaker 2 (14:28):
They are very good. Moving on to Saturday's games SMU
and Penn State, can we just dispel like the fact
that the teams are gonna melt in cold weather, first
and foremost, it doesn't get to twenty degrees in Texas,
but it's still cold in Texas in the winter. That's
how weather works. It's still cold in Knoxville. I think
(14:48):
people are maybe unless it's snows. I don't know if
there's snow in the forecast and Happy Valley on Saturday,
but cold is cold, like I don't think unless it's
gonna be negative fifteen, he's at the frozen tundra, which
they're not playing these games at. I don't think the
cold is going to be the reason why SMU or
Tennessee or loses a game. I just don't think so.
(15:11):
That being said, I don't think SMU stands a chance
against Penn State spread his eight and a half. The
total currently right now sits at fifty four At Drafting Sportsbook,
SMU is plus two fifty on the money line. I'm
taking the under. The under is my most confident play
in this game. At fifty four. Penn State has been
fantastic at home Defensively. I think that pass rush led
(15:35):
by Abdoll Carter, who can can he go top five market?
Speaker 3 (15:40):
Is that? Like?
Speaker 4 (15:40):
What's his seems like he's Yeah, it seems like he's
going top five. I don't think he's that much of
like a I won't have him as a top five,
top ten guy. Seems like that's where he is just
kind of as consensus in the industry.
Speaker 5 (15:55):
He's rose, He's risen up the boards.
Speaker 2 (15:58):
I mean this is like this is like a money
make three games for him?
Speaker 5 (16:01):
Oh yeah, for sure.
Speaker 3 (16:02):
More as the number one player.
Speaker 2 (16:05):
Wow did they really?
Speaker 3 (16:07):
Yeah?
Speaker 5 (16:07):
I knew, Yeah, I know that there's a lot of
a lot of buzz.
Speaker 4 (16:10):
I think the number one pick will be a quarterback,
and potentially even the number two pick, Uh and Travis
Hunter will probably be up there. He's probably right there
with like Ted McMillan, Will Johnson, a couple of uh
Mason Grant, maybe a couple of those other guys right
at the tops.
Speaker 3 (16:28):
Probably that's probably the main reason they figured that there's
untapped potential there, right.
Speaker 2 (16:34):
I think it's a money making a few weeks for
Abdell Carter, Tyler Warrens, I think already made his money.
I think he's going in the first round pretty confidently,
and Drawler is coming back. Like everything for Penn State
has has been settled in terms of the future. The
Perbula situation the backup quarterback is I guess a little
(16:56):
frustrating because you do use him in in certain situations,
But how many gimmick players are you really going to
use in the playoff? And I think you kind of
have to put those to the wayside and really just
focus on what you're good at. So I don't know
how much they're actually going to miss from going to
the transfer portal. And that's a whole conversation for another
(17:16):
day of how the schedule aligns with the transfer portal
and college football playoff. That's a whole other you know,
we can talk about that in the offseason if we
really need to. I just I think Penn State's defense
is very good. I think SMU while also very good
as a team, I don't know if they can step
(17:37):
up to the caliber of a top ten Big Ten team.
I think you're gonna see the same thing with the
Clemson against a top five SEC team. I think Penn
State is just going to handle business at home. I
can see a very methodical, like thirty to ten type game.
If there's one thing you do know when Penn State
now looked last week in the Big Ten Championship, I
(17:59):
think was the exception or Oregon forced their hand and
they had to play a high scoring game. Usually in
these types of games, Penn State wants to just methodically
drive the ball down the field. You won't see a
pass more than what twenty five yards, and even that's
even with Tyler Warren in the field. Penn State's wide
receivers aren't really that impressive. I think that's pretty easy
(18:23):
statement to make. They'll make it one or two plays,
but the playmakers are Tyler Warren the tight end, and
your two running backs Singleton and Allen. And if the
wide receivers are making a play, it's probably because Drewaler
is making a fantastic throw to them. But Penn State's
gonna methodically drive the ball down the field. They're going
to take time off the clock. I just don't see
how you get to fifty four points when Penn State's
(18:44):
gonna just kind of shove it in their face of
what they're good at and SMU is going to have
limited possessions, and we saw they got a little flustered
at the start of the ACC Championship game. They somehow
came back, but I don't think the door is going
to be open for them to come back against Penn State.
I think you do see a very methodical win, just
(19:06):
like you've seen James Franklin's team do against a lot
of these teams at least beneath them in the right
I don't call us in you a lesser opponent, but
teams beneath Penn State the rankings they usually under Franklin
get the job done.
Speaker 3 (19:20):
Yeah, James Franklin fifty eight and six straight up as
a home favorite, ninety two and sixteen straight up as
a favorite in general. So these are the games that
kind of reminds me of obviously higher stakes right now,
but reminds me of that game against West Virginia in
Week one. It was like a lot of people were
on West Virginia in that game, but that was just
a typical James Franklin. Penn State wins those games. The
(19:42):
other games where they're a dog, different story, obviously, But
if you're okay with biting some juice in this one,
Penn State moneyline parlad with Notre Dame money line, you
get that to minus one twenty eight if you're all
right with biting a little juice on their start off
your Friday and Saturday with just a straight up win,
and then could roll over those winnings into the later games.
(20:02):
But I like Penn State in this one too. The
offense has been humming. You said it, Joe, like they
were kind of forced to play from behind in that
organ game. But they've scored thirty five or more in
four of the last five games. And maybe aler I know,
he had a couple of interceptions, but maybe that was
a good thing. That's kind of been his main right.
I think, like his turn or his lack of like
(20:25):
big time throws, being able to make huge game changing
type of throws. He was forced to go out there
and risk it a little bit. Last week tested a
little bit. I think that might have opened up some
some more options there for Penn State going forward and
build some confidence. So I really like Penn State and
this one. I don't think this one's going to be
necessarily close. I'm probably not gonna bet the spread. I'll
(20:46):
probably take the under in this and I think I'm
gonna do that Nerved Dame Penn State moneyline Parla.
Speaker 2 (20:52):
Here's what I'll suggests, because we're talking a lot about
Penn State and their defense. SMU under two and a
half team touchdowns at Draft King Sports Book, not the
team total one points team touchdowns. If you look at
the home games, just the home games in State College
thirty four to twenty seven against Bowling Green is the
kind of the exception to the rule. They Kent State
(21:13):
that it is the worst team in the FBS got
shut out. Illinois only scored seven points. UCLA scored eleven,
and that was only boosted by a garbage time touchdown.
Ohio State only scored twenty points in Happy Valley, Washington six,
Maryland seven. Penn States defends their home turf very well.
I think if the SMU scores, it might not be touchdowns.
(21:35):
I think you get to a point in this game
in the fourth quarter where you're feeling pretty confident with
that prop under two and a half touchdowns for SMU.
Speaker 4 (21:42):
I'm on the opposite side here of both. I like
SMU to keep it close. I got it at plus
nine before it dipped back down to eight and a half.
I have serious concerns about the Penn State defense, and
I'm also on the over. Give me SMU plus nine
and also give me over at fifty three and a half.
Last four games Penn State has played have went over.
(22:04):
Four of the last six games SMU has played have
went over. You look at the amount of points SMU
has been putting up forty eight, thirty eight, thirty three,
thirty eight.
Speaker 3 (22:12):
Thirty one.
Speaker 4 (22:13):
And I know everyone loves Drew Aller right now, I'm
still pretty relatively low on Drew Aller when it comes
to the consensus that's out there. And I feel like
people were losing their minds about that Oregon game. He
was twenty for thirty nine with multiple interceptions, and he
made some big plays.
Speaker 5 (22:28):
For sure.
Speaker 4 (22:29):
The big story from that game was Penn State. Allen
had nine yards to carry. Singleton had almost eleven yards
to carry. Aler had almost eleven yards per carry on
eight carries with him running the ball himself. So I
don't think SMU is going to be giving up quite
as many yards on the ground. I think part of
that was Oregon got up pretty early and we're kind
(22:51):
of willing to kind of concede a little bit of
that running game. And when Penn State tried to go
to the air, I think you saw some of the
issues out wide. I kind of walked I feel like
a lot of people walked away from that Big Ten
Championship game maybe kind of encouraged that they hung with Oregon.
I kind of walked away more thinking that that defense
(23:11):
is a serious problem. They gave up forty five to Oregon,
and I felt like Oregon could have scored more. I
felt like they kind of got conservative in the second half.
And then I think this dates back to the Minnesota game,
giving up twenty five to Minnesota. I thought that they
struggled with USC defensively earlier in the year, and I
know we mentioned all the home opponents. I think that
the home opponents were pretty rough offensively, like the UCLA's
(23:34):
and the Marylands of the world, and even Illinois is
not a team that I think is going to light
it up. It depends where you're at on SMU. I'm
not even necessarily that high on SMU. So this is
more kind of skepticism in Penn State than anything else.
But I guess I'm kind of saying prove it to
Penn State a little bit.
Speaker 2 (23:54):
That's fair. I think there's a lot of teams out
there this weekend that need to prove it because there's
Oregon and Georgia sitting ahead, and I think a lot
of people still need to prove it from Georgia next
week as well. The one thing I'll say is if
you are in the fine state of New Jersey, the
greatest state on the planet Earth, which I will be
on Saturday, look into Nick Singleton's rushing propsy. What they've
(24:19):
done this year with the running back tandem of Singleton
and Allen. Allen's gotten a bulk with the carries middle
of the season. They saved Singleton for this specific part
of the season if you look, and I think he
was a little dinged up, but he only had six
carries against Ohio State. He only had seven against Washington
and Purdue in each game, but they've rammed him up
over the last few games. Thirteen for sixty three against Minnesota,
(24:42):
thirteen for eighty seven and two touches against Maryland, and
then average ten and a half yards per carry against Oregon.
I think he is the bell cow in this game.
And if you look into props, I'm not sure. I
don't have him in front of me because I'm currently
in Pennsylvania, but if you are in New Jersey, take
a look at Singleton prop to score a touchdown as well.
I think he is the bell coal in this game.
(25:04):
Alan will get his carries for sure, but I think
they're going to unleash Singleton for this moment. We all
know about Tyler Warren the wide receivers, Like I said,
man not so great. If imagine if penn State could
actually grab one of those guys in the portally. It
thought they had that with Julian Fleming, but it turns
out there's a reason why he was buried on the
depth chart at Ohio State. I look at Nick Singleton,
(25:27):
He is the X factor in this game.
Speaker 3 (25:29):
Yeah, they did just get that guy from USC Hudson.
I believe his name is so potential. Finally a good
wide receiver there for Penn State.
Speaker 2 (25:38):
If there's one thing that if there's one thing they
always complain about at Penn State is the lack of
the wide receivers. They've always had tight ends, they've always
had running backs, but that flashy kind of number one
wide receiver has kind of been been lacking them for you.
Speaker 4 (25:52):
Notre name as a similar similar issues with wide receiver.
For a long time, they were great at developing wide receivers.
Golden Tate, Michael Floyd, will Fuller, there's a bunch of
other guys.
Speaker 2 (26:05):
Whatever happened to will Fuller by the way, Oh he
had a very very sidebar.
Speaker 5 (26:09):
He had an amazing game, tested positive and was never
heard from again.
Speaker 2 (26:13):
It's like it's like they banished him.
Speaker 5 (26:15):
Yeah, it really is a shame.
Speaker 4 (26:17):
His ankles were also like the worst ankles in the
history of the sport. Every time he would have a
good game, he would hurt his ankles. But there were
other names, I'm forgetting in there. For a long time
they were really good at developing wide receivers. I think
even I forget who it was, but there's a head
coach out there now that was a wide receiver coach
for Notre Dame in that stretch.
Speaker 5 (26:36):
I forget who it is, but.
Speaker 4 (26:39):
It seems like the last decade or maybe a little
bit less than that. Though it's been the same way
with Notre Dame. You can't really find a lot of
that outside talent.
Speaker 2 (26:47):
Let's move on to Clemson in Texas. The biggest spread
on the board, it's twelve points. The over under is
fifty two. Look, this is just a personal crusader of
mine to not see Davoswinny on my TV after Saturday.
I did not want to see Dabo swinning on my
TV after the a SEC Championship. And then the self
(27:07):
righteous nonsense just kind of kept in and like I
don't need to hear it. We've the the curve on Dabo,
Like when clemsoning was a thing and they were like, oh,
they're the lovable losers. They can't get over the hump.
We kind of felt bad for Dabo, and then they
won national championships and like they peaked and now we're
at like that, we're going back down on the roller
(27:29):
coaster where it's like, Okay, we've seen enough of Dabo.
We don't need to see Clemson anymore. He's starting starting
to be insufferable with not entering the transfer portal on purpose.
And I think we're at that point now where like
if Clemson loses, I wouldn't I would not be opposed
to seeing them kind of drift off into the sunset
for like two or three years.
Speaker 3 (27:50):
I think this is the game most that the Texas
is going to have to hand Clemson the game. I
don't see a scenario where Clemson goes out there and
outplays them at all. It's going to be queen you
Wers go out there and has two to three boneheaded interceptions.
And that's the thing I'm kind of most interested to
see on Saturday, Like if Texas starts slow, if you
were start slow in the first half, first quarter, does
(28:10):
he get the hook for Arch and see what happens
from there. But this Texas defense is just too good
that I don't think Clemson any stretch is going to
be able to go out there and outplay them. It's
just going to have to be self inflicted wounds from
Texas in this one. When you look at Texas in
their defense number two scoring defense at only twelve point
four points per game, only allowed twenty or more in
three games this season, and they ranked third in total
(28:32):
defense at about two hundred fifty yards per game. The
defense is just awesome and it's going to keep them
in this game regardless. Offense, though has been struggling. Quinn
hasn't looked great since really returning from his injury, only
averaging twenty one point seven points per game over their
last four. So a little bit worried there about the
Texas defense. I'm probably not going to take the twelve,
(28:52):
but it's another situation where I really like the under
because I think Texas defense is that good and I
think that the offense for Texas is a little bit too.
Worries fome the trust them the score points right now?
Speaker 4 (29:03):
Yeah, I this is the game I have the least
opinion on. I'll be rooting for Texas. This is kind
of like, you know, people love the upsets in March
Madness when when you get twelve or thirteen, but they
don't realize that it ruins the Sweet sixteen or ruins.
Speaker 5 (29:18):
The ely eight, like if we.
Speaker 4 (29:20):
Need to have Texas playing the winner of Oregon vers
the eight or nine like Oregon Tennessee Ohio see any
comment state, Yes, I'm saying, we need Texas to win
this game and next game, in my opinion, for it
to be interesting. And you can say the same for
(29:40):
Notre Dame to get to Notre Dame Georgia. You can
say the same for Penn State to get to Penn
State playing the winner of Notre Dame Georgia. Like, if
you're saying we want the best matchups later on and
we want to make sure that we're kind of determining
the best team as the champion, then we should be
kind of rooting for these at least. I think all
the favorites we've talked about so far to win their games.
Speaker 2 (30:02):
I agree with Beef, the under is to play in
this game fifty two. I'm surprised it was that high.
Texas's defense they've been holding teams. Yeah, to totals in
the teams. Look at that Texas Georgia game. The game
went to overtime and still got under, although it got
to be a little bit nervy once it got to
overtime A lot. The worst thing in college football is
(30:25):
betting and under having your game good overtime. I think
we've all been there before with that, But I think
the under is the play. I would even probably feel
confident in putting Texas minus twelve on my card. I
just think they're the better team, and look, the best
unit on the field is Texas's defense. I think Kate
club Nick struggles a lot in this game. But the
game against SMU, I think is completely different from the
(30:47):
matchup they're going to face against Texas. It's gonna be
far less wide open. And I think that the biggest
You mentioned arch Manning there, Beef. The biggest question is
do we see arch Manning in the second half. Do
they preserve when you were because he's been banged up
this season? Do we get a little bit of a
Arch Maybe they say, hey, hang around because the transfer
portal is looming. I don't know if he'll go, but
(31:11):
there's enough intrigue out there right unc they need a quarterback.
We talked about that last week. What's the move there?
But regardless of what happens in the portal, I think
we do see Arch in the second half at some point,
and maybe that leads to a little bit of rustling
statement using him in the rush game, but not much
as a passer so far. So I think that also
(31:31):
lends itself to the under I think this game is
going to be over though, probably by the third quarter.
Speaker 3 (31:36):
Well, you seem very confident in Notre Dame, very confident
in Penn State, very confident in Texas, and it sounds
like you're very confident in Ohio State as well. Would
you be confident enough to parlay those four winners plus
one ninety four?
Speaker 2 (31:52):
No, absolutely not. I know so much. I know better
than that in college where it's to parlay the four favorites,
because there's gonna be one. I don't know which one.
I don't feel confident in any of the four underdogs,
but there's always gonna be one. That makes it very nervous.
So no, I will not do that. But if you
(32:14):
are interested in doing that, a Notre Dame, Penn State, Texas,
Ohio State gets you to plus one ninety four at DraftKings,
Notre Dame, Penn State, Texas gets you to plus one nineteen,
So that that I think you could consider. But the
Tennessee Ohio State game, I feel like.
Speaker 3 (32:32):
Some people is going to say everywhere everyone's take.
Speaker 2 (32:36):
One hundred or it's either going to be the three legs,
the first three favorites, and like Tennessee spread or something
like that. You're gonna see a lot of cards out there,
and look, there's a chance this goes chalk, right. I
mean you look at at least with Indiana, SMU and Clemson,
they've all got flaws and I think they can be
explored in those matchups. But I think that the leg
(32:56):
that you have to worry about if you do a
four leg on a game is in Tennessee, Ohio State,
because I think at least some people, not me, but
some people think that's gonna be a close game.
Speaker 5 (33:08):
I definitely start it off first.
Speaker 2 (33:10):
Yeah, I think that. Yeah, And look, let's segue into it.
Let's intro this spread Tennessee, Ohio State. It's down seven
and a half at draftkickings. It's been fluctuating between seven
and seven and a half over under forty six and
a half. The balls are plus two thirty five on
the money line. I will open the floor to both
of you first on Tennessee because that's where at least
(33:31):
you two are aligned.
Speaker 5 (33:33):
Yeah.
Speaker 4 (33:33):
I love Tennessee plus seven and a half in this game,
and I'm less a lot less bullsh on who's gonna
win the game. To me, I think it's a total
fifty to fifty toss up. I really do think it's
gonna come down to, you know, a field goal or
maybe six points. I don't think either of these teams
get to twenty one. I think this is twenty to fourteen,
seventeen to fourteen, seventeen to.
Speaker 5 (33:55):
Ten type game.
Speaker 4 (33:57):
So in my opinion, if you're Tennessee, I really think
think all you need to do is get to fourteen points,
and I think you're going to cover that seven and
a half. I think when the bracket first dropped, I
was kind of out there saying Tennessee's going to beat
Ohio State, and part of that was just it. I've
been pretty high on this Tennessee team for a while,
(34:18):
But more than anything, I'm just bullish that this is
going to be a good game.
Speaker 5 (34:21):
This is going to be a close game.
Speaker 4 (34:23):
ESPN and you know, the NCAA, the college football cogniticente
out there once and needs this to be a close game,
especially if some of these first two to three games
go how I.
Speaker 5 (34:34):
Think that they're going to go.
Speaker 4 (34:35):
But the main reason that I like Tennessee is just
Dylan Samson fourteen hundred and eighty five yards rushing for
six yards to carry twenty two touchdowns. I think he
might be one of the more under talked about guys
in college football there rushing for twenty two touchdowns and
almost fifteen hundred yards. He's also somewhat of a factor
in the passing game with twenty catches as well. Like
(34:57):
I think he's the type of guy that's going to
keep Tennessee in the game at the very least.
Speaker 5 (35:03):
So I really really like Tennessee to at least just
keep it close.
Speaker 3 (35:07):
Yeah, I think that's the most interesting matchup of the day,
that Tennessee rushing offense versus O High State rushing defense.
Both are top ten in the country. Which one wins.
That I think is going to win this game. But
I don't know if it's just that I've had a
close eye on this Tennessee team all year, but we
talked about multiple times. In that Oklahoma game, you saw
(35:28):
them kind of take their foot off the gas in
terms of the offense and go to a bit more
conservative style. I'm in the camp that I think that
they're going to open it up a little bit more
in the playoffs, and they're gonna have to if they're
gonna make a run at this thing. They're gonna have
to step up and be able to make some throws.
And you I point right to that Alabama game. They
had five to six deep shots and Nico only hit
two or three of them. But that's all he needed.
(35:50):
That's all that team needs. With how good the defense
is and how good the running game is, he just
has to be able to step up and hit a
few big throws. And the game I was at the
Kentucky game, he threw a few lasers. He also had
a couple really nice plays to drop touchdown passes in
that one. His numbers haven't been that great this year,
but I think there's some kind of misleading stats in
there as well, Like he's looked really good over these
(36:11):
past three to four weeks, and I think he's playing
really confident right now. And I'm in the camp as well.
I think Ryan Day is a coward. I think Ryan
Day is spineless, and I can't wait to see them
pan over to his face when Tennessee's up ten to
nothing early in the first half and the Boo Birds
are coming down. I like Tennessee to go into the
Horseshoe and win this game outright. And move on to
(36:31):
the next round.
Speaker 4 (36:32):
By the way, if you look at passing yards per
game and things like that, Nico is having like almost
the same season Aler is having if you look at
the stats.
Speaker 5 (36:41):
But if you look at the way Aler's being.
Speaker 4 (36:43):
Talked about coming into these playoffs compared to Nico, I
feel like it's completely different. And I think I feel
about the same about both of them.
Speaker 3 (36:50):
I saw Alyssa had Aller as the number one quarterback,
and I don't necessarily believe that Oregon's gonna make the
run to win it all. But Dylan Gabriel is out there.
He's the number one quarter back in this colle football playoff.
College quarterback, not necessarily pro, but you can't deny what
doing Gabriel has been doing recently.
Speaker 2 (37:07):
Yeah all right, Mark, I want to see your face
when I say this, because you're going to be flabbergasted.
Ohio State's winning this game by three touchdowns.
Speaker 5 (37:19):
I mean, yeah, you said it already, got it?
Speaker 2 (37:21):
Yeah, I'm doubling down. Look, if you have a spine,
if you have any type of motivation left in your team,
if you're Ohio State, you go out and prove they don't.
That's what everybody's saying. But if you have that inside
your locker room, you go beat the breaks off of Tennessee,
(37:42):
this multi million dollar roster that was supposed to be
the number one team in the country. If that's what
you are, you win this game and deliver a massive
statement to the entire country that you can win a
national championship. And it starts with a home game against
an SEC tam who, by the way, hasn't been that
great on the road this season. They've shown some weaknesses.
(38:07):
Like you said that Tennessee has kind of taken the
foot off the gas on offense. That's what exactly left
them as in the twenty five to fifteen game against
Oklahoma wasn't exactly impressive. Vandy jumped on them early before
Tennessee pulled away, and their two losses came on the road.
You have a young quarterback going on the road in
(38:27):
a tough environment. If it's a tough environment depending on
who you believe against, a veteran quarterback and Will Howard,
who I don't think he's great, but he has elite
talent around him with Judgkins at running back, with Buca
and Jeremiah Smith at wide receiver, I think Ohio State
has a massive, massive game delivers a statement. And look,
this is called gambling, right, I'm taking a gamble here.
(38:50):
We would Look, we think Ryan Day is a spineless
coward and is going to get fired after this game.
A lot of people think that, and that's why Tennessee
is gonna be an incredibly popular underdog, the only underdog
that the public's going to get this entire weekend in
the college football playoff. I'm gonna flip that. I think
Ohio State blows them out. They have the top ranked
defense in the country. Oh, by the way, we're not
(39:12):
just talking about this offense with all these studs. This
defense ranks first in scoring defense, first in total yards allowed.
That's gonna be a really tough place to play for
a young quarterback and offense that has struggled on the road.
And look, I know the Michigan game a complete embarrassment
for Ohio State. Defense, still help them the thirteen points.
(39:34):
The defense wasn't the problem that day. It was the
offensive execution. And also play calling was awful. If you're
Chip Kelly too, dude, throw the ball, don't run right
into the gut, because if you do the same thing
against Tennessee that you did against Michigan. You can't get
the same result. I think they aired out. I've been
(39:54):
pinpointing this guy for a few big games now, a Mecca.
Agbuka one of the most experienced wide receivers. These wide
receivers left in the College Football Playoff, you can bet
player props. I would bet him. I think he has
a massive day. I think you feed him ball. Jeremiah
Smith kind of shows off as well. I think Ohio
State wins. This is gonna be very unpopular taking my
(40:15):
own household, but Ohio State I think wins by three touchdowns.
Speaker 4 (40:20):
I think part of why Chip was running so much
in that game is because they're afraid to pass rush
with all the O line injuries that they have, and
I think that especially I think that could be a
problem against James Pearce, who everyone loves that Dual Carter
and I.
Speaker 5 (40:33):
Feel like got Dual Carter's jump James Pierce.
Speaker 4 (40:35):
I still think James Pierce is the best ad rusher
prospect in this upcoming draft class. So I just think
that you look at last time Ohio State lost this season,
they didn't respond. They came out and they lead an
Egg at home against Nebraska, they won twenty one seventeen,
and we're on the border of losing that game at
the very end. I just think that this team doesn't
(40:59):
have I have that kind of fight in them. I
don't believe in Ryan Day. But it's less about that.
I think this is just a styles make fights matchup.
I think this is seventeen fourteen, twenty to seventeen, low scoring,
really legit. Two legit defenses. And you'll notice when I
talk about the Ohio State why I'm not in on
Ohio State has.
Speaker 5 (41:20):
Nothing to do with the defense. That's a legit defense
right there, for sure. But I think the Tennessee defense
is legit too.
Speaker 4 (41:26):
I think these are two of, if not d two
best defenses in the college football playoffs.
Speaker 3 (41:31):
I think if you think you can match for sure
what Michigan did in terms of the defensive side and
make that a really ugly game. Now they actually have
a quarterback that can throw a forward pass as well.
You probably just need one really good drive from Nico
in that offense, and I think you'll be in shape
because I think the defense and the field positions are
(41:51):
going to be pretty good in this one. Just the
way the defenses are playing, You're just gonna have to
be able to capitalize on one drive and one thing
that I'm keeping my eye on for Tennessee eighty eighth
in the country in the red zone, not great red
zone offense, so you've got to be able to finish
the drives if they want to pull off this up step.
Speaker 2 (42:08):
Now, if you think I'm a complete and total idiot,
which a lot of people will if they hear this,
take the under in this game. Both of these defenses
are very good. If you think I'm a complete idiot
in Ohio State has no spine left, the under is
the plan. I still might take the under. I think
Ohio State defense is that good and they might hold
Tennessee to like ten points. But I think if you
(42:29):
don't have a side, if you're not passionate about Tennessee
or Ohio State, take the under in this game. That
you have two top five defenses going on each other.
I know it's not what you want to hear for
a playoff first round game that's probably going to be
the closest of the four, but this one's going to
be low scoring.
Speaker 5 (42:47):
I agree, I like the under. I'm not going to
bet it.
Speaker 4 (42:49):
I decided I'm going to keep it. I don't want
to muddle it. Just focus in on Tennessee plus seven
and a half, big big play there, but under forty
seven would definitely be my play.
Speaker 2 (42:59):
So if I'm if I'm really streamlining my take, I'm saying,
like thirty one to ten, I'll call my shot there.
Ohio State wins thirty one to ten, my bold prediction
comes my bold prediction comes true, and the underhits.
Speaker 4 (43:12):
I'll say seventeen fourteen. Tennessee wins, Ohio State misses a
kick to tie the game.
Speaker 5 (43:18):
The Senator over time college.
Speaker 2 (43:20):
Kickers need to screw up this weekend.
Speaker 3 (43:21):
By the way, yeah we need seventeen involves if you
want to move it, Joe to DraftKings only, lets you
move it to minus nineteen, but you can get them
at plus th eighty six.
Speaker 2 (43:33):
I'm not going to do that.
Speaker 5 (43:34):
That's only.
Speaker 2 (43:34):
Yeah, that's why I'm not gonna move it.
Speaker 3 (43:37):
Yeah, yeah minus eight if you took tennis State plust nineteen.
Speaker 2 (43:43):
So I'm gonna hold off on betting like an outlanda
spread and keep them at seven and a half. But
but yeah, that's that. Any other takes on the non
playoff bowl games. I know Beef and I talked about
Memphis last week. I think we're both on them. In
the prestigious Frisk Bowl against West Virginia, I guess real quick,
(44:04):
some things you need to know for these games. Let
me pulp the actual bowl game names and then we'll
get out of here. The Boca Ratumble, Western Kentucky JMU.
Western Kentucky's quarterback Caden Vllcamp is in the portal but
is playing, so that's something worth noting.
Speaker 1 (44:21):
There.
Speaker 2 (44:22):
Cal at UNLV and the La Bawl. Cal's quarterback Mendoza
opted out. UNLV is now flipped to a three point favorite.
Georgia Southern plays Sam Houston New Orleans Ball. Sam Houston's coach,
Casey Keeler is off to Temple very very good, higher
by the way. And then you have Friday, the Cure
Bowl Ohio and Jacksonville State. Both teams lost their coaches.
(44:43):
I lost theirs to Charlotte britch Rod now back at
West Virginia. And then Tulane in Florida and the Gasparilla Bowl.
Thirteen point favorite is Florida Darien Mensa, Tulane's starting quarterback,
has transferred to that official to Duke guys yep, which
is weird because because Malik Murphy actually had a decent season.
Speaker 5 (45:03):
Speaking of Duke, do you know where Malik Murphy went?
Speaker 2 (45:07):
Did he commit?
Speaker 5 (45:08):
Yes?
Speaker 2 (45:09):
Where do you go?
Speaker 5 (45:10):
He went to?
Speaker 3 (45:12):
Uh?
Speaker 4 (45:12):
Wait, I just sent it to Beef and Kentucky, Kentucky. Okay,
I got confused because it was in It was going
to be Auburn apparently, and then Jackson Arnold went to Auburn,
so he went to Kentucky.
Speaker 2 (45:23):
Speaking of Auburn, did you see Zach Calzada's name popped
up in the He actually might go to cal because
Brian Harson got hired at Cal as their oc oh
how to court the college football world turns.
Speaker 5 (45:37):
I don't know if we got to the Christmas Eve one.
Speaker 4 (45:40):
I did kind of look at USF plus three and
a half against San Jose State. Nick Nash is like
the best receiver in the country on San Jose State
and he opted out, So it's just it's based on
very little. But I just feel like San Jose State
probably doesn't have a ton offensively besides Nick Nash.
Speaker 3 (45:57):
I got here, but I got three quick plays before
I hop out. Georgia Heyler minus six, un LV minus
three in Ohio minus three and a half. And I
will talk to you boys next week.
Speaker 2 (46:07):
I will, and we'll end it on the note that
the odds are minus one hundred thousand, that I will
sit on my couch Christmas Eve and enjoy the ever
living hell out of the Hawaii Bowl. That is one
of the traditions. They cannot take away from me, Christmas
Eve and the Hawaii Bowl. They can take away the
Egg Bowl and Thanksgiving Eve, Mark, Jimmy, but you can't
(46:27):
take away the Hawaii Bowl on Christmas Eve. Looking forward
to that, looking forward to the playoff, Mark Henry Junior.
Ryan beef Court will be back talking about the quarterfinals
later on after Christmas. For myself, Joe Tansey, best of
luck on your plays and we'll talk to you after
the first round.
Speaker 1 (46:46):
Spreads total all the prop that's in the tweens.
Speaker 2 (46:49):
It's the Gambler.
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