College Football Preview: Week 11 -- 11/10/23

On this episode, Jon Jansen and Joe Tansey recap Week 10 and take a look at the action for Week 11! PSU vs. Michigan!?!??

Episode Transcript

(00:00):
Every week can change the season,and the College Football Preview follows the action
every step of the way. JoinedJoe Tanzi and John Jansen as they dive
into the wacky world of college football, the biggest games of the week,
and five bets on teams you've neverheard of. The College Football Preview starts
now on the Gambler. It isthe College Football Preview Week eleven edition.

(00:24):
Myself, John Jansen, and JoeTansey breaking down all things college football.
Heading to a good weekend of action, not bad. I think there are
some good games, interesting games thatwe could talk about. And also we
have another week of college football playoffrankings and that's where I want to start
with you, Joe Tansey, youcan follow it, Jay Tanzie ninety myself
again, John Janson at j Jansenthirty four of playoff rankings out not much

(00:46):
has changed. He really just couldhave said, hey, guys, it's
about the same. I know theyhave to change everything outside of like the
top five six teams, but stillthe ones that matter, the rankings that
matter, who are at least thespots that it's not really much has change.
Do you think that should have beenthe case. Yeah, Although I'd
like to make a petition right now. Okay, this is because because this

(01:10):
is an entertainment business, Like,let's be honest with the college football playoff
rankings until Thanksgiving after Thanksgiving weekend.Really it's an entertainment thing. I desperately
want Ohio State one, Michigan two. If Michigan wins this weekend, give
me Ohio State one Michigan two,and we can build up to the entire
weekend with Ohio State Michigan best theway it should go. I'm okay,

(01:34):
okay. I did this with Oklahoma, all right, that was the team
I zeroed in on. A teamthat's like, this is a fraud.
They're not as good as people thinkthat they are. And I'm going to
continue that even though they're going toprove me wrong a lot of the times.
And then when I'm right once outof like twelve games, I'm gonna
scream it as loud as I can. I'm doing this with Ohio State.
Now. There is no way thatteam should I mean, we got to

(01:57):
use common sense sometimes. I knowwe got to use resume, and I
know that teams have to prove themselves, like Michigan has to prove themselves,
right, Like, we have tolet Michigan prove themselves first before we crown
them with the number one spot.Whatever. Georgia also hasn't lost the game,
though, and they've proven themselves thatshould be the number one team.
They look like it, they've playedlike it. That's the number one team.

(02:20):
I'm not pretending another week, Joe, that there should be a one
next to Ohio State's name. Ican't do that. I'm not doing it.
I can't do it. It wasa horrible week last week against Rutgers.
I don't care that they pull awayin these games. I don't care
that they beat Penn State in NotreDame. By the way, those two
wins don't look as impressive. They'reimpressive, don't get me wrong. Like
there's not a lot of impressive winsin college football. I get that because

(02:40):
the only thing that will impress youknow, us, at least you know
sometimes in my eyes, is likeplayoff contenders, and they're legitimately the best
college football teams. There's not manyof them. So Ohio State is a
chance against Michigan. But again,I'm asking them in their like one chance
to do well. But I justI don't like what I've seen, and
I think it's it's very close tobeing very much fraud. Like Ohio State's

(03:02):
still really talented, so it's notas much as Oklahoma Oklahoma. I just
it never looked like a college footballplayoff contender to me, and it seems
like they're definitely almost out of therunning now. But Ohio State certainly has
a talent Defensively, they have theHeisman Trophy candidate and Marvin Harrison Junior,
who is maybe one of the bestwide receivers we've seen in college football.

(03:23):
It's it's like all these this stuffis great, but the offense is so
slow to move and it's so dependenton one player. Now Henderson as well
can get some work done. Butthe quarterback position is it's not only a
question mark, it's bad. Likewe couldn't we can just say it and
just plainly plainly set this I guesskind of marking of Ohio State. They

(03:46):
have to win with bad quarterback play, like that's just what it's going to
be the season. But you're doingthe exact the exact thing that the playoff
committee wants you to do. Yep, like that that's really what it is.
Like, the entire the entire thingthat you just laid out with Ohio
State is exactly what the committee wantsyou to do. The committee wants you

(04:06):
to overreact and say that Ohio Stateis not fraudulent number one, but shouldn't
be number one over Georgia in Michigan. And well, I do think that's
the case. It doesn't matter atthis point. No, no, it
doesn't. It does not matter.But I agree, I agree with you
with the flaws that Ohio State hasbecause we've not it's not a point where

(04:27):
you can like, maybe it canget fixed. Like we had the question
about Carson Beck right, the samequestion, what's Carson Beck gonna be?
Like with Georgia. I can seehim progressively getting better each and every week,
and now he's not only become aquestion mark, I think he's become
is he a strength now for Georgia? Like I think he's playing well enough
that we could say this guy iscaught up with the rest of his team
and he is now not a problem. He's a really good asset to have.

(04:49):
Kyle McCord is actively working against everythingOhio State is trying to do.
Right, But I think the thingwith Ohio State is their defense is is
so phenomenal, really talented. Ifyou look at the path to beat Michigan,
it's a low scoring game. Andand this is kind of leading to
the the point we're gonna have withOhio State and Michigan in two weeks is
I think it's gonna be like aseventeen to thirteen type game. It's gonna

(05:12):
be very similar to the High that'sthe High State's gonna win games. That's
it's it's not what what they werewhen justin fields is there a CJ.
Stroud It is. It is absolutelythat they're gonna have to win ugly,
big ten games, and but they'vebeen They've been able to win those games
they have. That's exactly they've beenable to do it. And it's a
little bit different for me, youknow when I talk about like Oklahoma,
Oklahoma to me was always just notever in these conversations. Ohio State firmly

(05:36):
is they're good, But it's justthat they have such a glaring giant issue
at the most important position. Iwouldn't even say in college sports is the
most important position, because teams withthe you know, not the best quarterback
can still be great. Stetton Bennettwas a great college quarterback. I would
never say he was like the best, so you can win without the best.

(05:56):
But still Comccord's just it's not good. But I think the state is
They've shown us twice now, theMaryland game in the Rutgers game. I'm
sure there are more examples of this, but these are the two that stand
out. Is they've had okay firstass but they found a way to win
in the second half and found away to win in commanding fashion. So
it's not like they're doing this forfour quarters. Can they Can they find

(06:19):
a way if? I mean,look, Notre Dame Penn State's offenses aren't
good. Let's just call it theway it is. And I think those
those matchups stylistically worked really well forOhio State. That is, bad offense
meets great defenses, and a higherStates defense just is just better than almost
everyone else is at this point,what happens when you go up against a

(06:39):
better offense, an offense that canI mean, college football offenses are always
going to best defenses at some point, especially, but the count of the
count that to that is And ifyou're a State fan, this is how
you're gonna build this up the nextfew weeks, is will Our defense is
is very good and that's going tobe the way we beat Michigan, And
who knows what's going to happen withhardball with Michigan. I can see that

(07:00):
Misigan is a little bit tough forme because I know McCarthy is getting even
a lot of like NFL attention.Now, I just don't see you with
that offense. It's weird at times, it's not as explosive as you would
think a team like Michigan's should be. With that being said, Georgia and
Michigan are still the two best teamsin the country, I think so.
I think I would have to beproven otherwise to think different. And I

(07:23):
think we're gonna see that even morethis week. And look, let's just
call it what it is. Atthis point, with Lane Kiffin and James
Franklin, they can't win the biggame. They just can't. And it's
been proven year after year, andwith flank Kiffin a lot more with Ole

(07:45):
miss against the Bama. He hasto play at Georgia, but against Bama
he can't get the job done.So now with Franklin, it's proven he
can't get the job done, andI think and we're going to have ourselves
into the preview. But yeah,Penn State, what they did last week
is going to mess with a lotof people because yes, Drew Aller had

(08:07):
his best performance of the season,everything looked great, but it was against
Maryland, and I think people aregonna they're gonna fall for it games and
Happy Valley, you know, Michigan'sfirst real test, if you want to
call it that. But if youwatch these two teams over an entire season,
it's very clear who the better teamis, who the more complete team

(08:30):
is, It's Michigan. And whenyou have a track record like James Franklin
does, that's really just horrifically badagainst top top ten, top five teams
like it, at some point youjust have to call space of spade and
realize what it is. The samething with Ane Kiffin. Definitely, All

(08:50):
miss is going to do the samething they do every year, go ten
and two compete for a New Year'ssix berth. If not, they're going
to be on on on New Year'sDay or one of the you know,
the Citrus out Back, Gator whateverwhatever bowl that is, and they're gonna
be like, oh, well,we you know, Liane Kiffen's still got
the third best team in the SECand the two teams that beat US or

(09:11):
Georgia and Alabama, and that's that'sthe way we're it's gonna go. That's
the way college football works. Neitherof these teams can take the step up.
It's been proven now. I thinkif you if you look at the
two, Penn State has got thebetter chance to pull off an upset.
But everything has to be peral.And look, don't count out the spike
factor here. Excuse me with Ithink that you're battling over there. I

(09:39):
think that's my wife, the PennState alumb casting a spell on the say
bad things about James Reglan. Shewould have she would have those mystical powers.
Uh, Penn State has a betterchance to win. But I mean,

(10:03):
look what they did against Ohio State. It doesn't It doesn't right that
that lost inspires no confidence to me. It's not like there were some things
that didn't bounce their way and itwill at home. It was their offense.
Just their offense is never good enoughin these in these spots and against
these kinds of defenses. Which Icould really say is this is Michigan's first
real test on the road this season. So maybe it is a close game,
and maybe this is a one,you know, the battle tested,

(10:26):
that battle tests Michigan as they getto o Higo State and obviously towards the
college football playoff portion of the season. But I just don't I don't see
that happening because it's mostly just it'sPenn State's offense that just can't can't keep
up in these games. Here.Here's the thing with Michigan, though,
because we like to do this thingas college football fans, and it's one
of our tried and true things todo every year with the who have they

(10:48):
played? Right, we do itall the time. It's the one thing
we love to fall back on toargue against a team in the top five,
well, who have they played?And and some people will do that
with Michigan. But when you lookat Michigan's entire body of work, it's
still good. It's still really good. It's not even it's not just good.
It's like elite. They haven't ateam hasn't scored more than fourteen points

(11:13):
on them. They're consistently winning gamesby twenty five to thirty points, like
it's a well oiled machine. Anddon't rule out the spike factor here,
John, I think the Harball stuffactually benefits Michigan on the field. Well,
this is the team against East Carolinawas rolling out the forest for Rball

(11:35):
is like college coach, what aweird team, man? I actually college
college coaches are an easily hatable team. I think I think we're proving it
by the most unscandalous scandal in collegefootball is where you realize every single team
is stealing signals, as we're findingout in the Big Ten. But everybody

(11:56):
just hates Jim Harball Michigan so much. We just don't we don't care how
little this actually of an issue is. We just want to think. I
think, is such a hatable character. It's and it's the the team is
so weird. Man, who's goingto do that when you lie in the
first game of the season against thenothing school that you're gonna beat by thirty
anyway, and you line up singlefile and put up the force for our

(12:20):
Tim Harball just for saying like it. Come on, man, college football
it's a cult. It's it reallyis. Yes, And they're and They're
playing the biggest cult outside of Texas, A and I do to get off
of Michigan a little bit and totalk about the rest of the college football
Playoff. There is so I don'tknow if you saw the video when Houston

(12:41):
ended up playing the Lakers and DylanBrooks is just sitting on the other side
of the court standing staring at Lebronduring warmups for an uncomfortable amount of time.
That right now is Alabama staring atthe rest of the top five for
the college Football Playoff and just waiting, Well, when you get a mess
up, when or one of yougoing to mess up? The difference between

(13:01):
the two is Lebron would torch DylanBrooks when Alabama Alabama? Like, that's
a little bit of it, eventhough I think they did. They did,
But don't Dylan Brooks, all right, don't there slander Dylan Brooks on
this show. That's still offensive toAlabama. It is, but it's it's

(13:22):
just they are waiting for somebody tomess and they are primed to take a
cut. I mean, this wherewaiting for somebody though, Well, if
they have one loss and they beatGeorgia and the SEC championship team they're in.
Yeah, I I completely so they'renot. They're not. Alabama ain't
waiting for anybody. So how howdo you feel? Because I think there
are some I think I was talkingwith with was a beef that said this

(13:45):
about Alabama, that they look likethe best team in college football. I
don't know who it was, butI heard somebody say this. It might
have been you, but I heardthat. I was like, they might
he might be you know, Idon't know, because I don't think there's
a firm number one team at thispoint. So I think you can go
outside the box a little bit toa must team and not just take the
unbeatens. Alabama looks awesome. Man, Alabama looks really good right now.

(14:07):
I think I think you could fairlypower rank one Georgia two, Michigan three,
Alabama. I completely agree. Ithink that's how it should be.
Because so Florida State's a playoff team, but they've shown some flaws in certain
games, has been shown some fla. I love Washington. I think Washington
is a really good team, evenI think Washington has has flaws. Washington

(14:28):
Washington's defenses is concerning. Yeah,and there going to be coming in and
ever. Ever since the Oregon game, Washington has been suspect hack. I
mean Stanford if they complete that fourthdown play, I mean, who knows
what happens on the rest of thatdrive, but Washington. So that's what
it's coming down to. You shouldn'tit shouldn't just be a player to determining

(14:52):
your game against Stanford. You shouldbe you should be dominating that team with
the with the ranking that they have. So that brings me to this conversation
this week. Obviously we're going tolose two most likely going to lose two
playoff contenders in Penn State and willmiss. So then do any of these
teams that are outside of the Marqueegames. So Florida State against Miami,

(15:13):
which I wish was bigger as acollege football I wish that was. I
wish that was because that will growingup, that was the marquee game.
Miami. I mean, Miami doesn'thave the best it's still a really good
team. Like I think that couldbe a competitive games. Being nice to
Miami. Miami is not that bad. They're not really good. They're dumb

(15:35):
sometimes, but yeah, I meanit should be a fun game. I
think it will be. It'll befun. I don't think they're really good
though Utah Washington. The way Washington'splaying and Utah embracing this underdog and their
defense, that could potentially be squirrelyfor Washington. And then I don't think

(15:58):
we're in USC has to organ hasto work about USC. So I mean,
is this the big no no?Because you know no, because the
one, the one big difference betweenWashington and Oregon, and it's probably the
reason why Oregon is gonna end upin the College Football Playoff is Oregon's defense
is playing very well. Great.Yeah, that Pac twelve team with a

(16:22):
defense is dangerous. I honestly thinkif right now my four would be Georgia,
Michigan, FSU in Oregon. That'swhat it be right now. Okay,
so you're leaving out of high Ithought I was going to be slandering
Ohio State left and right here,and you're the one. He's like,
yeah, we're not, We're notslandering. I think it's just state for

(16:47):
sure. Yeah, that's that's obviouslypart like Ohio State would be five in
the in that ranking. I meanfor Ohio State, one loss is is
how how far can these Notre Dameand Penn State wins carry them. If
they do lose the mission yet,well it won't be able. They would
need help certainly, but it alldepends on so that the weird tiebreaker I

(17:08):
think with the Big ten East.At this point, Alabama's resume is starting
to look great, right, butAlabama doesn't get in without beating Georgia.
Oh, they have to be Georgia, right, So anything we say about
Alabama in the playoffs is Georgia.Yeah, and Texas is Texas feels like
the lame duck. Like if ifyou were to put the five Power five

(17:30):
conference champions up in a power ranking, Texas probably gonna be fifth. All
right, now let's get to uh, let's move on. Do you want
to talk about Louisville at all?They're like just hanging They're hanging around for
some reason. They're hanging around,but they're not relevant until definitely the guy,
the guy in the party, Like, does anyone actually know this guy?

(17:51):
What is he? What is hedoing here? We have we have
one of those teams every year,don't we, Not Louisville not, But
like there's always one or two teamsat this point this season. Usually usually
Carolina plays this role where they justwhere they hang around. They're like eleven
or twelve, we say should wetake them seriously? And then we're not

(18:11):
gonna take them seriously until the thingis we shouldn't even question that they they're
not good. They're not good,but they're better than the rest of the
teams in the rankings right now.I like, I think Oregon States better
than Louisville. I think Tennessee maybeI don't know Tennessee. I'm not in
love with Missouri better than Louisville.Oklahoma's better than Louisville. Right, You're

(18:36):
you're falling. You're falling Louisville.The Notre Dame is not better than lou
Notre Dame that might not actually bethat good. You're you're falling into the
Clemson name played though Buddy Trap withthe just talking about the AGEC it's different.
It's different with Louisville is it comesand we knew back then was great.
It's just obviously what would it looklike once they, you know,
play the best teams. But Imean, I mean, I think you're

(19:00):
forgetting like Clemson. Clemson before theywon, Clemson, before they won titles,
had had so many flaws. Great, Louisville's not talented, not that
talent, not that talent. Idon't I don't think we have to worry
about Louisville. But the only waywe the only way we talk about Louisville
within this they don't belong. Theydon't belong. The only way we talk

(19:25):
about Louisville in the playoff context isif Penn State and all Miss both lose,
there's one or two more losses andFlorida State slips up at some point.
Yeah, none of that's happening,and Louisville is going to slip up
at some point. They lose theI'll say that they lose the last two
games. They're just they're they're hangingon. It's Miami. They lose to

(19:47):
Miami and they lose to Kentucky.I can see them losing the Kentucky.
I can see them losing on theroad to Miami on the road. That's
I think that's depending on what Miamidoes against you. Well, speaking of
that, let's move on big gamesfor this week. Which ones have your
attention the most? I think I'vealready played, But yeah, I think

(20:10):
I'm taking Michigan minus four and ahalf. I'm taking Georgia minus ten.
I mean, until both James Franklinand Lane Kiffin can prove I'm I'm dead
wrong about them, And even ifthey win this weekend, I'd still be
dead. I'd still justify all theselike Georgia has beaten all challengers ten points.

(20:33):
Look, george is getting better too. I feel like that off just
gets better almost every week. OleMiss only put up what ten against Alabama.
Yeah, I mean it's horrible.Offensively. Ole Miss's offense looked really
good against everybody else in the SEC, but then when they went to play
a real team, they just theyfaltered and and look at Penn State,

(20:55):
you can ply the same logic.They've looked really good against the bad teams
in the Big Ten, which they'vedone forever under James Franklin, but when
they went into their big game againstOhio State, Duraler couldn't throw a past
more than five yards down the field. And Michigan's going to do the same
thing. I honestly, if thisgame was at night and not the big
noon game, I'd be on PennState. But everybody's yeah, I've heard

(21:21):
that from multiple people, like notthat game is fantastic for Penn State.
But still it's a whole other level. It really is. There are just
certain places in college football where aseven point thirty kickoff is incrementally better than
noon. LSU is one of those. Penn State is one of those.

(21:44):
It's just it's different. It reallyis different, because it makes it feel
it makes it feel special, andthis is just it's a noon game Michigan.
Look, I think Michigan is goingto win in spite of the NCAAA.
At this point in the Big Ten, I feel like, yeah,
I know, we've been I've beenseeing some things about what could possibly happen.

(22:07):
I've heard three games for somebody Idon't know who, But I don't
know something's gonna come down. AndI don't know when or or how long
the punishments are going to be andwhat the punishments are. But I do
know that I think. I thinkif a suspension comes down today, it's
the worst thing to happen to PennState. Really, Yes, Okay,
I don't know. I don't knowwhat it to, I don't know.

(22:30):
I don't want to use that aspart of my analysis on what I think
happens in this game. It's collegesports, though you have to it's you.
It's college sports. Like we justwe just talked about at some point,
we're just like we're talking about somethingthat I don't know what the difference
really makes good or bad, butwe we just talked about a game starting
at seven thirty. We're talking aboutone of the best coaches in college football

(22:55):
right now that wouldn't be on thesideline, right I think like this,
especially in the road, we're alsotalking about a bunch of kids who have
rallied around their cult leader before.Like, I think it does more harm
than good. If you're Penn State, I think you want Harball on the
sidelines. I think if you're PennState, you don't want any You don't

(23:15):
want Michigan to have more motivation ona national stage. Like if you're Michigan
and say Harball does get suspended today, you're on the plane and in the
meeting rooms tonight just playing that upthe entire coaching staff. Everyone doesn't want
us to win. The Big Ten, doesn't want us to win, the
NCAAA doesn't want us to win.That could do wonders for eighteen to twenty

(23:38):
two year olds. It doesn't workin the NFL. It absolutely would not
work in the NFL, but incollege football it does. You have to
have to play that into the wayyou approach this game. Michigan is going
to use this. We said thisit's their most important game yet they're going
to use this as an fu tothe entire country, and I would not

(24:00):
be I would not be surprised ifMichigan wins this game. You hear the
players and you hear the coaches saysomething along those lines because of of all
the attention they've been getting off thefield, that that's just how this works.
I understand. It's like, it'scrazy how I don't know, I
just do it does absolutely does.Guarantee. This is the only sport you

(24:23):
can factor that into into it.It's like the kind of thing though,
it's like a coach gets fired andis it it's going to inspire the team?
It sometimes does, It sometimes does, and we just I don't know,
we don't There's nothing I can doto really back behind any way.
I think. I think all youneed to know is the way Michigan responded

(24:44):
when Harball missed the games at thestart of the season, Like you said,
yeah, they really didn't play thatwell in that game. It's weird,
but it shows you the relationship withinthe program. Sure, but it's
not like they put up sixty inthat game. They were just fine.
They were all right, right,But I think you're underestimating how how these

(25:08):
things work behind the scenes in collegefootball. I think Michigan's a better team
anyway, Harbor Harball, they're thebetter team, but I think you're underestimating,
just like how much motivation they'd gainfrom Harball being suspended. I think
it's I think it's the real deal. I really do. All right,
let's move on to our bets forthis weekend. I am getting crushed in

(25:30):
college football, so we'll start withyou. I am not. So do
you want to just roll them offlike we did last week? Yeah,
you can just role them off.Yeah. By the way, I wanted
to bet SMU tonight, but thatnumber has gone up four points in the
last I guess, like three hourssince I looked at it. It's not
twenty. Yeah, that's a lot. Wait, what is that opportunity twenty?

(25:52):
Now? I wanted it at sixteen. It's just weird. I mean,
because they can they can score withanybody, but their defense is just
yeah, So I've I'm staying awayfrom the Friday games. I'll probably bet
in the NBA N Season Tournament,which I'm sure you have an opinion on
too, But that's for another showand another time. So let's roll them

(26:14):
off. I'm gonna go chronological orderto make this very easy. Michigan minus
four and a half. We alreadybroke that down. Alabama minus eleven at
Kentucky. Kentucky's a big fat fraudwhen it comes to big games as well.
You saw them against Georgia. Theyare what they are. They're gonna
win eight games playing what the MusicCity Bowl, and Mark Steeps has a
job for life. Alabama is playingphenomenal football right now. They're gonna stop
Kentucky's best player with the running backDavis Devin Leary has no shot in this

(26:38):
game. Alabama minus eleven Kansas.Let's give Kansas some credit here for not
letting down, not steffering the letdownafter the game against Oklahoma b IWA State
pretty handily at home against Texas Techminus three and a half. Texas Tech.
We had no business ranking them atthe start of the season. They've

(27:00):
just been bad on the road.They're under five hundred, they might not
make a bowl game. Uh,Nebraska money line plus one oh five.
They're two point home underdog. Maryland'snot good. Taga Baloa against a good
defense. Not good. Maryland againdoes this thing. They're good. Bad
matchup for them, and on theroad against the defense like that, it's

(27:23):
tough. And on top of that, Nebraska needs to bounce back after losing
the Michigan State. I think that'sa game where they they of course lost,
of course. Yeah, I shouldhave read that too. It's Big
ten West. They lose to MichiganState, they beat Maryland. Right,
that's just how it goes. That'sjust that's just how the world works in
the Big ten West, it does. Uh. Liberty Old Dominion over sixty.

(27:45):
Liberty has been playing some fantastic offensivefootball of late. Uh there,
I believe, in competition with Tulanefor the G five spot in the New
Year six. But in a veryelectric offense. They've been putting up a
thirty to forty points each game inOld Dominion. Not great. By the
way, this was a conference game. It's not. It's sunned out for
CUSA, so yeah, yeah,that's a conference alignment. His room everything.

(28:10):
Yeah, it's better not to thinkabout it. Memphis Charlotte over fifty
two. Memphis is offense. Ireally like what they're doing right now with
Seth Nigan and Charlotte. I Memphissurprised me this year in that way.
Yeah. My favorite pick on theboard this week is a very weird one,
but one that will makes sense whenI say it. Oklahoma State UCF

(28:32):
under sixty five and a half.There's no way Oklahoma State is up for
this game in the first half.This is the leftdown of leftown spots.
But their defense. No, that'sa better way to put because I I
would have loved to bet UCF.I hate the way UCF has looked this
year, right, it's hard todo that. Yeah, this is this
is perfect. Okahoma State looks greatand then they lose in a game like
this, And you know how didOklahoma State lose that game? Gundhy always

(28:56):
loses this game, but I thinkalways always. I think the important thing
here is UCP's offense is not greatand Oklahoma State's defense, Yeah, and
Oklahoma State's defense is it's it's betterunit of the two. I think it's
a very low scoring game in thefirst half and then Oklahoma State runs the

(29:17):
ball with Ali Gordon wakes up inthe second half. Even if Oklahoma State
didn't beat Oklahoma and beat them lastweek, I don't I don't see a
path the sixty five points because OklahomaState's defense is very good. So I
think their offense sleepwalks and then theirtheir defense plays in incredible four quarters like
they have. I'm betting Iowa moneyline minus one fifteen. I just think

(29:37):
their defense is gonna take away theone thing that Rutgers does really well,
and that's run the ball. Rutgersgreat season, but yeah, I'm good.
Kansas State minus twenty one against Baylor. This goes back to what they've
done against Houston and TCU at homeinto the three weeks before the Texas game.
They just obliterate the bad teams athome, and that's what they're gonna
keep doing, if you know,I'm gonna ride that trend until it's eyes

(30:00):
out. Texas State over fifty sevenagainst former Eagles great GJ. Kinney as
Texas State Bowl eligible. Both ofthese defenses are really bad. Give up
over three hundred and eighty total yardsper game. Texas State, you know
they score a lot, but theyalso give up over four hundred yards per
game. This is a game thatcould pretty back and forth very fast.

(30:22):
Speaking of offenses, that look prettydecent. Now Arkansas, Arkansas life Arkansas.
Yes, I don't know how we'restill talking about Arkansas, but yeah,
they've I've been impressed. I havebeen. They really impressed me in
that Florida game last week on theroad, very sound offense, firing their

(30:42):
offensive coordinator worked. I think theywin this game against Auburn at home minus
two and a half. By theway, kJ Jefferson, how many years
of eligibility does he have left?He's gonna be in couchableball forever, right,
as long as he can. I'vebeen betting Stanford as an underdi for
the last few weeks and it's beenvery profitable. So I'm gonna take them

(31:03):
plus twenty one against Oregon State.They're frisky. I don't think they'll win
this out right, but Stanford's playssome pretty decent football. In the last
month they competed with Washington. Ithink this is a game where they at
least stayed within the three. MindGeorgia mentioned that Georgia Southern minus two and
a half against Marshall. Marshall hasn'tscored over ten points in their last three

(31:23):
games. They're bad, very bad, very bad. So we're gonna keep
that fading Marshall trend up. Wewon with that state against them last week.
Rice utsa over fifty seven. FrankHarris, the Roadrunners are hamming Man.
Ever since he not only just gotback but also settled down after his

(31:45):
injury, like got a game ortwo under his belt. Man, he
has been electric. Had a reallygood game last week against North Texas.
I think, yeah, I thinkFrank Harris has been awesome. It's good
to see too, right, It'sgood to see a team that we fell
in love with a few years ago. Yeah, and just man, I
love good college quarterbacks. And that'sone you know you're not gonna think about
because he's not in college fable playoffdiscussions, But man, that's always one

(32:07):
a group of I love good groupof five quarterbacks that are able to play
this one college. I have asolid spot in my heart for them.
And then my final pick, USCOregon under seventy six. I know USC's
defense is bad, but Oregon's defenseis very good. There's going to be
a point where USC's offense just doesn'tscore points. And I think this is
it. I think I think we'realmost overreacting to how incredible that Washington USC

(32:30):
game was. I think this gamedoesn't even sniff, sniff the sixties.
I could see Oregon doing something tothe USC like they did to Colorado.
I could see this game being,you know, forty five to ten,
and we're like, well, thattotal was set way too high. So

(32:50):
is that it for you? Joe? Is that finally? That is?
Yes? I have a nice littlesixteen pack again this lord, I have
a look up. I want tobefore you go. I am eighty one,
seventy three and two this season,so like, that's great. I'm
not doing well at all. Iknow I have a lot of underdogs this
week, so I love it.Hun, I haven't had very many this

(33:15):
season, so it's kind of kindof weird that I'm going this direction.
Maybe this is the week I dowell. I like wake Forest. North
Carolina State has to go back toBrennan Armstrong because MJ. Morris is sitting
out for the weird story. Weare unbelievably weird. Yeah right, probably,
but Brendan Armstrong's not Brendan Armstrong's actuallyback. He's back, but he's

(33:37):
just been horrible. I think thisit's a weird situation for Anti State.
Seems like they founded it found itout pretty late as well. So I'm
gonna go wake Forest. I thinkNTI State's offense is going to struggle.
I'm going to wake Forest money lineat home plus one oh five Arkansas laying
the two and a half, allthe things you just mentioned. Been really
impressed with the offense. kJ Jefferson, good veteran. I just don't think
Aubbyurn has the Jews. By theway, if Auburn gets like an actual

(34:02):
real quarterback in the portal, forsure, they just don't have to they
have it. Yeah, they justthey don't have that vision. I'm actually
going I'm buying low on this team, and I know you did this spot
doesn't seen all the I'm going USCplus fifteen and a half defense has been
a problem, but still this isthis is Lincoln Riley's offense. This is

(34:23):
Caleb Williams. Caleb Williams, Ithink because he's so weird, I think
gets a bad rep. But theguy, actually, the guy's a baller
man. The guy loves to playand I think he's gonna to show up
and the team play well. Oregon'sdefense is great, but this is an
offense that can score against anyone againwhen when they want to things going whatever,

(34:44):
when when it's just not all fallingapart. I don't think it's falling
apart that much. It's just,you know, these games are just slipping
away from them so slowly. Theycould have beat Washington and they just didn't.
Defense obviously big part of that.And Oregon's going to score a lot
of points. But I think USC'soffense shows up. Fifteen and a half's
a lot of points. I knowthis within two touchdowns. Why don't we
meet in the middle and said,like thirty five twenty one, I get

(35:06):
something at USC? Yeah, yeah, you know what, something like that.
Absolutely that works for me, andOrgon might want to do that,
not play keep away from USC's offense, but yeah, just make USC kind
of a little uncomfortable, slow downtheir their possessions, and uh play a
style of game that USC just doesn'twant too. So yeah, I could
see that, but I fifteen andit has a lot of points. That's
the only reason I'm doing this isjust USC, I know, is you

(35:30):
know I'm not their best and thisis not what we thought they were going
to be. But still, thisis this There's still a certain standard to
play that I think has been prettygood for them. It's just it's probably
not going to result in the win. They still, I think could be
close in this game and a half. Fifteen and a half is just a
lot Missouri giving up points to Tennessee. I don't care that they just played
Georgia. I don't care that thismay be a leta. I don't care.
Missouri is better. Missouri is justa really good football team. Do

(35:52):
you care if Luther Burden might notplay? I don't care. That's what
scared me away from this game.I still love Missouri. I love everything
about the team. I think they'rebetter than Tennessee. Tennessee's offense just doesn't
do it for me. I likeMissouri at home here. I think they
get the job done. So Ilike Missouri plus three. I'm gonna go.
I'm with you on Nebraska as well. I'm just going moneyline there plus

(36:13):
one oh five. I think thedefense is gonna play really well against Maryland.
Maryland in these spots, offense doesn'tdo well on the road. You
know, they they put up pointswhen they're against Illinois at home, you
know, something like that. Butin these kinds of games where they're playing
a pretty good defense, they're onthe road doing it. This is just
a tough, tough matchup that Marylandjust doesn't seem to usually play well in.
So plus one of five for NebraskaI like, and then b YU

(36:35):
plus eight and a half b yU and Iowa State to me are essentially
even. I don't I don't makeOhio States eight and a half points better
on the road against BYU. Thisis I mean, it's gonna be a
bad football game. Yeah, thisis one that you're not going to want
to watch. There's gonna be somuch better college football. But I mean,
let's let's be honest. B YUis the the three losses have been

(36:55):
on the road, and you knowat TCU, I don't know if is
the but Texas is really good inWest Virginia surprised a lot of people this
year. So like, it's notthat bad of a loss. Thirty five,
thirty seven to seven is not good. It's not that bad of a
loss. They're back at home.Iowa State's only beating TCU Cincinnati and Baylor
and you know other bad teams.Uh again, road game for Iowa State

(37:16):
BYU has been better at home thanthey have been on the road. I
think eight and has too much,too many points for teams that I think
are essentially the same, almost thesame thing. Iowa State BYU is gonna
be that game where everyone falls asleeptoo and wakes up on Sunday morning and
like who won that game? Itwas it b YU Because it's on right
after Ole Miss Georgia on ESPN,so every year and everybody's gonna be watching,

(37:39):
probably still Oregon USC. Anyway,it's been a long day of football,
and you know, you just happento doze off and it's you wake
up in the fourth quarter and bYu's up. Sure whatever, that's that's
what this game gives off. Uh, Joe, that is it for Week
eleven. Appreciate you giving us abillion play and uh yeah, good good

(38:01):
stuff, Joe. Appreciate it asalways, go dogs, your dogs,
and I know I have a tonof dogs, which is good. I
haven't done that a lot this year, which is probably why I'm losing everything.
Yeah, it is. It's weirdin the NFL. All I do
is look for underdogs, and incollege football, I'm I'm such a chalky
college football better and I hate that. I'm very aware about that, and

(38:22):
I don't know how to change it. I just it's it's a flaw inside
of me that I just don't knowhow to change. But that's why we
love college football. Joe Tansey atJay Tanzi ninety mete. John Jansen at
Jay Jansen thirty four. That isn'tfor Week eleven of College Football Preview.
I can't believe I'm saying this Weektwelve coming up next week. We'll be
back next week with more of theCollege Football Preview