October 12, 2025 • 15 mins
Dr Bob McClure, President of the James Madison Institute, shared some JMI polling data shedding light on a variety of important topics.
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:02):
It means we are here for yet another hour. Friends.
It is Wednesday, October eighth on The Morning Show with
Preston Scotti's Oasiah and Preston Show fifty four sixty eight
and thrilled to have back with us Doctor Bob McClure.
He presides as president of the James Madison Institute. Hello,
doctor McClure, how are you.
Speaker 2 (00:22):
I'm doing fantastic. How are you, my friend?
Speaker 1 (00:25):
I am doing well. I am overwhelmed with the data
that James Madison released in this polling of Florida voters.
I'm curious when you see something as wide and as
broad and as deep as this. You a data nerd
and a guy who drills deep and into the details.
(00:48):
What stood out to you is the most compelling story
out of all of this polling.
Speaker 2 (00:55):
You know, there were a couple of things, Preston. One
is that we live, as you and I have talked
on and off air many times, in the greatest state
in the country, the freest state in the country. It
has so much going for it, but yet seventy five
percent of the people in this state are worried about
the cost of living. They're worried about housing they're worried
(01:18):
about groceries, They're worried about property taxes, insurance and those
kinds of things. And so I think despite the place
that we live, this is called the Sunshine State, there's
some worry, not some, there's a lot of worry about
making ends meet. I think the second thing that's really
interesting is the governor's poll, which we can talk about more.
(01:42):
You know, if people don't know that Byron Donald's has
been endorsed by Donald Trump, he's basically running even with
Casey Desantus not saying she's going to run. I have
no knowledge one way or the other. But once they
know that Byron, and this is not reflected in the poll,
but once they know that Byron has been endorsed by
Donald Trump, he's typically up twenty to twenty five points.
(02:03):
So the Donald's campaign pay needs to do a better
job of letting people know, because when you go into
the booth Preston, it's not going to say next to
his name, endorsed by Donald Trump. Those are the two
things that stuck out to me.
Speaker 1 (02:16):
Let's circle back to the economic part of this, and
let's start with the housing is what is crystallizing on
the issue of affordable housing.
Speaker 2 (02:27):
Well, I think the issue for now you and I've
also talked about this. There's a huge difference between building
affordable housing and building housing that's affordable. Typically, bureaucrats and
elected officials when they say affordable housing, they're telling the
builder to build cheap housing that they can't make money
(02:48):
on and will they can just essentially kind of give away.
What we argue at JMI and what the data shows
is that you need to build housing that is a four.
And what that means is typically it is the local government.
And boy, we've seen it here in Tallahassee and Leon County.
It is a local government that drives off, drives up
(03:11):
the cost of housing. Wait times, permitting, pay go, you know,
all of the different things that the permitting fees, all
of the things that go into the cost of building
a home, getting approval from some bureaucrat. Those are the
things that drive up the cost of a house. It's
not that builders are mean and they're trying to price
(03:34):
scouts people. They will build houses that people want to buy,
but government officials and bureaucrats too often get in the way.
Speaker 1 (03:42):
Is it important kind of taking a page from those
on the left that I think are exceptionally good at
playing the long game and using semantics with ambiguity riddled
through it to keep people sort of confused. You know,
you just you just hit on it. Affordable house housing, Okay,
let's define that. Does there need to be an effort
(04:05):
Is there an effort needed by those on the right
side of the aisle, those that believe in limited government
and so forth, to define what affordable housing is? Housing
that is affordable?
Speaker 2 (04:19):
Oh? Absolutely. The left has co opted the English language
for years, and we know that, whether it's things like
the Affordable Care Act, which is neither affordable, or does
it care for patients, the Inflation Reduction Act, it does
not reduce inflation. The term progressive. I don't like to
use the term progressive because that implies that they are
(04:43):
progressing forward. Progressives as we know them in this country
actually are taking us back their status. They want us
to rely on government. That's not progress, that's not human progress.
I call them the left, and so yeah, they have
co opted the language, and we on the right have
to do a much better job of And I think
(05:05):
Donald Trump is a great example of speaking in terms
that the average American who doesn't care about politics, can
understand what are you going to do for me? How's
it going to affect my life? And Donald Trump and
Rod DeSantis. Look at the governor with this whole property
tax debate. When we first started this, you know what
(05:26):
did he start eighteen months ago? Everybody kind of thought, Oh,
that's a nice idea, that's never going to happen. Well,
it's something's going to happen. I can tell you that.
And the governor has done a great job of making
it simple for people in their everyday lives. And those
are the two gentlemen who are really doing it the best.
Speaker 1 (05:45):
Jandard the Buttress. The point that doctor McClure was making,
you may remember we started using the term illiberal about
a decade ago because classic liberalism. You know, you hear
about a liberal arts college and a degree and all
of that. I mean it, there's there's some commonality we
can talk to people that are classic liberals because they
(06:08):
believe in liberty. But but that's changed today, doctor McClure.
Let's let's take a little step further into this economic
tax issue here in the state of Florida. James Madison Institute,
you were looking at what what policy might look like.
Have you gotten any closer to what the proper steps
might be for moving towards elimination and property tax.
Speaker 2 (06:33):
Well, I think there, I think no. I think it's
going to depend upon kind of where the governor and
the legislature want to go. So there are several different
ways one can go about this, and it doesn't have
to be an either or it can be a bull.
And so, you know, I heard the governor, I think
it was yesterday, say that if they eliminated property taxes,
(06:54):
particularly you know, rural counties rely on these, you know,
these these local property taxes, taxes tremendously that the that
he felt like the state with its revenue could cover
some of that, could cover a lot of that. One
of the things you can do is roll back spending
two pre COVID levels, you know, in places like Palm
(07:17):
Beach County. I was in Orlando at a press conference
with the CFO talking about this very issue. In Seminole County,
you know, uh and and many of these counties you're
talking about, spend spending has gone up fifty percent Preston
in five years since COVID. These people at the local
level are surfing the wave of property values going up,
(07:41):
property taxes going up, and then they say, hey, we
never increased your your property taxes. Well, they didn't increase
the milite rate, but they your property taxes went up.
And we see that here locally as well. So there
are a lot of ways to go about that. One
more thing, and I'll throw it back to you. You
can put it heavy cap on local spending, roll it
(08:02):
back to say, twenty nineteen spending levels. Let's just take
Leon County, roll it back to twenty nineteen spending levels,
cap it, and then index that to population growth in inflation.
You're not telling them how they can spend their money.
You're not telling them where they can spend their money.
But you are saying, roll it back, this is how
much you have to spend, go forth and do good things.
Speaker 1 (08:23):
How many of the counties that are really overspending compared
to twenty nineteen are governed by Democrats? Hmmm.
Speaker 2 (08:34):
I don't know the answer to that, but I think
it's really important. And the CFO made this point yesterday
that this is not a Democrat Republican issue. For example,
we were in Seminole County yesterday, which is wholly owned
by the Republicans at the local level, right, and yet
their spending has gone through the roof about fifty percent
(08:55):
since twenty nineteen.
Speaker 1 (08:56):
Shameful, I think that's what that that's shameful.
Speaker 2 (09:01):
It is shameful, it is, but that's what we're seeing
at the local level. And so it's not and this
is what's refreshing. This is not Democrats or Republicans. This
is about cutting spending and returning those dollars to the
taxpayer in the form of real dollars. Because the cost
of living in Leon County, in North Florida, in Seminole County,
(09:26):
in Broward County has gotten out of control in large
part because of local government spending. It's not the state.
The state per capitis spends is one of the lowest
in the entire country. Right. It is at the local
level where we are seeing, because of this exponential growth
here in the state of Florida, where we are seeing
this abuse take place.
Speaker 1 (09:48):
Back with doctor Bob McClure of the James Madison Institute
talking about some recent polling and among the topics, the
twenty twenty six scubernatorial race, and we touched on it,
ever so briefly, doctor MCA. I am of the opinion
that Jay Collins was picked as lieutenant governor because Casey
is not going to run. I don't think Governor de
saying this puts him in that office. And he has
(10:09):
been very, very visible. Is people booking him on my
show all the time? Kind of your thoughts on the
long race here that's.
Speaker 2 (10:18):
Ahead, well, I think that you know, if you're reading
kind of the white smoke or black smoke from the Vatican,
it certainly appears that Jay Collins is going to run.
Good man, great guy, great legislator. You've got Paul Renter
in there, who is also fantastic, was probably a historic
(10:42):
House speaker if there ever was one in terms of
getting good conservative policy through agreed, You've got Byron Donald's
who is excellent, would make a great governor, who has
the Trump endorsement, has you know, tens of millions of
dollars in the bank, and would appear appear to be
the odds on favorite. We have a long way to go, obviously.
(11:03):
And then in the Democratic side, I'm not sure who
inspires you is that David Jolly, kind of the Charlie
Crist of the twenty twenties. He's been a Republican, he's
been a Democrat. You know, really, I don't think so.
Jason Pizzo Mark, Well, he's not a Democratic guy. No,
(11:24):
he rejected the Democratic Party because they had gone so
far left. And now he's running as an independent. So
there's not the infrastructure. Maybe the fundraising component is much
more challenging. So you know, it's all in the republic
And then you add in Preston that there is now
a one point three million registration voter edge for the Republicans.
(11:47):
Think about that, one point three million more people identify
as Republicans in this state than they do as Democrats.
That makes whoever comes out of this primary, and you
got to believe it. Byron with the Pole position, it's
got to be the odds on favorite to be the
next governor.
Speaker 1 (12:06):
The problem that Congressman Donald's has is that at this
point in time, his ground game in the state is
very lacking. I don't know if the people advising him
aren't just recognizing how poor it is, but but they're
struggling with the ground game in Florida, and they're struggling
getting him local exposure in places like this program. And
(12:29):
I'm just curious if that's if having Trump's endorsement is
what they're they're banking on, because I think I like
you like him very much, and I think he'd be
a terrific governor along with a couple of other people.
But if he doesn't do a better job of connecting,
you know, he's going to struggle.
Speaker 2 (12:48):
Well, that was what was interesting about the polling. So
we did a polling back in the winter where we said,
you know, do you know that Byron is endorsed by
Trump because it had just come out. No, I didn't
if it. If I did, it increases he's up by
twenty points. But this most recent poll was just like
it would appear in the ballot box, on the ballot
(13:09):
box and it's who would you vote for? Straight up
positive negative? We you know this is not this is public.
We caught some flak from the Donalds campaign because we
didn't include it the Trump endorsement on this most recent pulling,
but it's not going to be in the polling booth
when you go in to vote. It's a comment upon
(13:30):
them to make sure everybody knows that he's been endorsed
by Trump. So when you just show it as you
show it as it's going to be on the ballot.
It was pretty even. So that tells me there's work
to do now. I have no inside knowledge. I don't
even pretend to. Don't want to know. Are they holding
their fire till January? They have a lot of money
(13:50):
in the bank. I don't know. That's not that is
there there. They've got a lot of smart people running
their show. So maybe that's just holding their fire till
January and then they're going to push the ground game,
push the other I don't have an answer for you
on that, but it is an interesting thought that most Republicans,
most Floridians have no idea he's been endorsed by the president.
Speaker 1 (14:14):
Last question, what are your expectations? And we can talk
more about this next month, but what are your expectations
in short for the final session with Governor Ron de
Santas at the HELM.
Speaker 2 (14:25):
I believe the Governor's going to get something very significant
on the ballot in terms of property taxes, and I
think it's going to be a really, really important issue
for Floridians. Can you imagine if you eliminated property taxes
or you reduce them seventy five eighty percent, what that
(14:48):
would mean for Florida's economy and putting money back in
people's pockets. I'll say this about the governor. He has
run through the tape man. He is not coasting in
these last two years. He is driving and pushing. You know,
you go back to the weed Amendment to the abortion amendment.
He put all the chips on the table, he won there,
(15:10):
and so he is pushing. I think the second component, Preston,
is that the trial bar is going to continue to
try to claw back what they lost when we put
in those reforms toward reforms primarily focused on insurance two
years ago, and I think we're going to have to
play a little bit of offense on the property tax issue,
(15:31):
a lot of offense and some defense to keep in
place the reforms on property insurance that are working.
It means we are here for yet another hour. Friends.
It is Wednesday, October eighth on The Morning Show with
Preston Scotti's Oasiah and Preston Show fifty four sixty eight
and thrilled to have back with us Doctor Bob McClure.
He presides as president of the James Madison Institute. Hello,
doctor McClure, how are you.
Speaker 2 (00:22):
I'm doing fantastic. How are you, my friend?
Speaker 1 (00:25):
I am doing well. I am overwhelmed with the data
that James Madison released in this polling of Florida voters.
I'm curious when you see something as wide and as
broad and as deep as this. You a data nerd
and a guy who drills deep and into the details.
(00:48):
What stood out to you is the most compelling story
out of all of this polling.
Speaker 2 (00:55):
You know, there were a couple of things, Preston. One
is that we live, as you and I have talked
on and off air many times, in the greatest state
in the country, the freest state in the country. It
has so much going for it, but yet seventy five
percent of the people in this state are worried about
the cost of living. They're worried about housing they're worried
(01:18):
about groceries, They're worried about property taxes, insurance and those
kinds of things. And so I think despite the place
that we live, this is called the Sunshine State, there's
some worry, not some, there's a lot of worry about
making ends meet. I think the second thing that's really
interesting is the governor's poll, which we can talk about more.
(01:42):
You know, if people don't know that Byron Donald's has
been endorsed by Donald Trump, he's basically running even with
Casey Desantus not saying she's going to run. I have
no knowledge one way or the other. But once they
know that Byron, and this is not reflected in the poll,
but once they know that Byron has been endorsed by
Donald Trump, he's typically up twenty to twenty five points.
(02:03):
So the Donald's campaign pay needs to do a better
job of letting people know, because when you go into
the booth Preston, it's not going to say next to
his name, endorsed by Donald Trump. Those are the two
things that stuck out to me.
Speaker 1 (02:16):
Let's circle back to the economic part of this, and
let's start with the housing is what is crystallizing on
the issue of affordable housing.
Speaker 2 (02:27):
Well, I think the issue for now you and I've
also talked about this. There's a huge difference between building
affordable housing and building housing that's affordable. Typically, bureaucrats and
elected officials when they say affordable housing, they're telling the
builder to build cheap housing that they can't make money
(02:48):
on and will they can just essentially kind of give away.
What we argue at JMI and what the data shows
is that you need to build housing that is a four.
And what that means is typically it is the local government.
And boy, we've seen it here in Tallahassee and Leon County.
It is a local government that drives off, drives up
(03:11):
the cost of housing. Wait times, permitting, pay go, you know,
all of the different things that the permitting fees, all
of the things that go into the cost of building
a home, getting approval from some bureaucrat. Those are the
things that drive up the cost of a house. It's
not that builders are mean and they're trying to price
(03:34):
scouts people. They will build houses that people want to buy,
but government officials and bureaucrats too often get in the way.
Speaker 1 (03:42):
Is it important kind of taking a page from those
on the left that I think are exceptionally good at
playing the long game and using semantics with ambiguity riddled
through it to keep people sort of confused. You know,
you just you just hit on it. Affordable house housing, Okay,
let's define that. Does there need to be an effort
(04:05):
Is there an effort needed by those on the right
side of the aisle, those that believe in limited government
and so forth, to define what affordable housing is? Housing
that is affordable?
Speaker 2 (04:19):
Oh? Absolutely. The left has co opted the English language
for years, and we know that, whether it's things like
the Affordable Care Act, which is neither affordable, or does
it care for patients, the Inflation Reduction Act, it does
not reduce inflation. The term progressive. I don't like to
use the term progressive because that implies that they are
(04:43):
progressing forward. Progressives as we know them in this country
actually are taking us back their status. They want us
to rely on government. That's not progress, that's not human progress.
I call them the left, and so yeah, they have
co opted the language, and we on the right have
to do a much better job of And I think
(05:05):
Donald Trump is a great example of speaking in terms
that the average American who doesn't care about politics, can
understand what are you going to do for me? How's
it going to affect my life? And Donald Trump and
Rod DeSantis. Look at the governor with this whole property
tax debate. When we first started this, you know what
(05:26):
did he start eighteen months ago? Everybody kind of thought, Oh,
that's a nice idea, that's never going to happen. Well,
it's something's going to happen. I can tell you that.
And the governor has done a great job of making
it simple for people in their everyday lives. And those
are the two gentlemen who are really doing it the best.
Speaker 1 (05:45):
Jandard the Buttress. The point that doctor McClure was making,
you may remember we started using the term illiberal about
a decade ago because classic liberalism. You know, you hear
about a liberal arts college and a degree and all
of that. I mean it, there's there's some commonality we
can talk to people that are classic liberals because they
(06:08):
believe in liberty. But but that's changed today, doctor McClure.
Let's let's take a little step further into this economic
tax issue here in the state of Florida. James Madison Institute,
you were looking at what what policy might look like.
Have you gotten any closer to what the proper steps
might be for moving towards elimination and property tax.
Speaker 2 (06:33):
Well, I think there, I think no. I think it's
going to depend upon kind of where the governor and
the legislature want to go. So there are several different
ways one can go about this, and it doesn't have
to be an either or it can be a bull.
And so, you know, I heard the governor, I think
it was yesterday, say that if they eliminated property taxes,
(06:54):
particularly you know, rural counties rely on these, you know,
these these local property taxes, taxes tremendously that the that
he felt like the state with its revenue could cover
some of that, could cover a lot of that. One
of the things you can do is roll back spending
two pre COVID levels, you know, in places like Palm
(07:17):
Beach County. I was in Orlando at a press conference
with the CFO talking about this very issue. In Seminole County,
you know, uh and and many of these counties you're
talking about, spend spending has gone up fifty percent Preston
in five years since COVID. These people at the local
level are surfing the wave of property values going up,
(07:41):
property taxes going up, and then they say, hey, we
never increased your your property taxes. Well, they didn't increase
the milite rate, but they your property taxes went up.
And we see that here locally as well. So there
are a lot of ways to go about that. One
more thing, and I'll throw it back to you. You
can put it heavy cap on local spending, roll it
(08:02):
back to say, twenty nineteen spending levels. Let's just take
Leon County, roll it back to twenty nineteen spending levels,
cap it, and then index that to population growth in inflation.
You're not telling them how they can spend their money.
You're not telling them where they can spend their money.
But you are saying, roll it back, this is how
much you have to spend, go forth and do good things.
Speaker 1 (08:23):
How many of the counties that are really overspending compared
to twenty nineteen are governed by Democrats? Hmmm.
Speaker 2 (08:34):
I don't know the answer to that, but I think
it's really important. And the CFO made this point yesterday
that this is not a Democrat Republican issue. For example,
we were in Seminole County yesterday, which is wholly owned
by the Republicans at the local level, right, and yet
their spending has gone through the roof about fifty percent
(08:55):
since twenty nineteen.
Speaker 1 (08:56):
Shameful, I think that's what that that's shameful.
Speaker 2 (09:01):
It is shameful, it is, but that's what we're seeing
at the local level. And so it's not and this
is what's refreshing. This is not Democrats or Republicans. This
is about cutting spending and returning those dollars to the
taxpayer in the form of real dollars. Because the cost
of living in Leon County, in North Florida, in Seminole County,
(09:26):
in Broward County has gotten out of control in large
part because of local government spending. It's not the state.
The state per capitis spends is one of the lowest
in the entire country. Right. It is at the local
level where we are seeing, because of this exponential growth
here in the state of Florida, where we are seeing
this abuse take place.
Speaker 1 (09:48):
Back with doctor Bob McClure of the James Madison Institute
talking about some recent polling and among the topics, the
twenty twenty six scubernatorial race, and we touched on it,
ever so briefly, doctor MCA. I am of the opinion
that Jay Collins was picked as lieutenant governor because Casey
is not going to run. I don't think Governor de
saying this puts him in that office. And he has
(10:09):
been very, very visible. Is people booking him on my
show all the time? Kind of your thoughts on the
long race here that's.
Speaker 2 (10:18):
Ahead, well, I think that you know, if you're reading
kind of the white smoke or black smoke from the Vatican,
it certainly appears that Jay Collins is going to run.
Good man, great guy, great legislator. You've got Paul Renter
in there, who is also fantastic, was probably a historic
(10:42):
House speaker if there ever was one in terms of
getting good conservative policy through agreed, You've got Byron Donald's
who is excellent, would make a great governor, who has
the Trump endorsement, has you know, tens of millions of
dollars in the bank, and would appear appear to be
the odds on favorite. We have a long way to go, obviously.
(11:03):
And then in the Democratic side, I'm not sure who
inspires you is that David Jolly, kind of the Charlie
Crist of the twenty twenties. He's been a Republican, he's
been a Democrat. You know, really, I don't think so.
Jason Pizzo Mark, Well, he's not a Democratic guy. No,
(11:24):
he rejected the Democratic Party because they had gone so
far left. And now he's running as an independent. So
there's not the infrastructure. Maybe the fundraising component is much
more challenging. So you know, it's all in the republic
And then you add in Preston that there is now
a one point three million registration voter edge for the Republicans.
(11:47):
Think about that, one point three million more people identify
as Republicans in this state than they do as Democrats.
That makes whoever comes out of this primary, and you
got to believe it. Byron with the Pole position, it's
got to be the odds on favorite to be the
next governor.
Speaker 1 (12:06):
The problem that Congressman Donald's has is that at this
point in time, his ground game in the state is
very lacking. I don't know if the people advising him
aren't just recognizing how poor it is, but but they're
struggling with the ground game in Florida, and they're struggling
getting him local exposure in places like this program. And
(12:29):
I'm just curious if that's if having Trump's endorsement is
what they're they're banking on, because I think I like
you like him very much, and I think he'd be
a terrific governor along with a couple of other people.
But if he doesn't do a better job of connecting,
you know, he's going to struggle.
Speaker 2 (12:48):
Well, that was what was interesting about the polling. So
we did a polling back in the winter where we said,
you know, do you know that Byron is endorsed by
Trump because it had just come out. No, I didn't
if it. If I did, it increases he's up by
twenty points. But this most recent poll was just like
it would appear in the ballot box, on the ballot
(13:09):
box and it's who would you vote for? Straight up
positive negative? We you know this is not this is public.
We caught some flak from the Donalds campaign because we
didn't include it the Trump endorsement on this most recent pulling,
but it's not going to be in the polling booth
when you go in to vote. It's a comment upon
(13:30):
them to make sure everybody knows that he's been endorsed
by Trump. So when you just show it as you
show it as it's going to be on the ballot.
It was pretty even. So that tells me there's work
to do now. I have no inside knowledge. I don't
even pretend to. Don't want to know. Are they holding
their fire till January? They have a lot of money
(13:50):
in the bank. I don't know. That's not that is
there there. They've got a lot of smart people running
their show. So maybe that's just holding their fire till
January and then they're going to push the ground game,
push the other I don't have an answer for you
on that, but it is an interesting thought that most Republicans,
most Floridians have no idea he's been endorsed by the president.
Speaker 1 (14:14):
Last question, what are your expectations? And we can talk
more about this next month, but what are your expectations
in short for the final session with Governor Ron de
Santas at the HELM.
Speaker 2 (14:25):
I believe the Governor's going to get something very significant
on the ballot in terms of property taxes, and I
think it's going to be a really, really important issue
for Floridians. Can you imagine if you eliminated property taxes
or you reduce them seventy five eighty percent, what that
(14:48):
would mean for Florida's economy and putting money back in
people's pockets. I'll say this about the governor. He has
run through the tape man. He is not coasting in
these last two years. He is driving and pushing. You know,
you go back to the weed Amendment to the abortion amendment.
He put all the chips on the table, he won there,
(15:10):
and so he is pushing. I think the second component, Preston,
is that the trial bar is going to continue to
try to claw back what they lost when we put
in those reforms toward reforms primarily focused on insurance two
years ago, and I think we're going to have to
play a little bit of offense on the property tax issue,
(15:31):
a lot of offense and some defense to keep in
place the reforms on property insurance that are working.
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