Beating Your Bookie 5/4/23

Jon Jansen and Po talk #Sixers-#Celtics series, Joel Embiid injury, #MLB, and more.

Episode Transcript

(00:09):
Yes, Fox, What's the GamblerEvery Thursday six to seven. You can
hear beating your bookie right here onthe Gambler hosted by myself me John Jansen
at Jay Jansen thirty four and myco host as always Po and Poe.
Last night, that was great forthe Sixers thirty four point loss. But

(00:33):
you're You're always one that seems sortof level headed at times. You seem
realistic. How you feeling after lastnight's game? Um, look, I
feel good. If I told youbefore the series that we would be tied
one one coming back to Philly,you would take it all day long?
Am I right? With emputer ornot MB, whatever MB does or doesn't
do. As long as we hadour health and we came back one one,

(00:56):
you're taking it. We just stolehome court advantage on a best of
seven series. I don't know.I look at it and I say to
myself that they play inspired when embiadwere so deep on our bench that in
Game one, they almost play withmore inspiration when they're playing small ball without
them and they have to move theball, and when embat is on the

(01:19):
floor, there's a part like complacencywhere I think mentally, you think,
feed the ball to Harden, feedthe ball to to embad And when Harden
goes two for eleven from the fieldand over six from three point land,
that's not gonna yeah, if you'regonna be one of the two options,
and then I think you just youget to Like I saw George Niang and

(01:41):
I don't know if you remember this, Somewhere in the second quarter, they
did this great ball movement. Therewas a like I think embeat at one
of five blocks. They were comingdown the actual other end of the court
and Niang was on the court,had an open three after moving the ball
like three times, and he didn'ttake the shot, And I was like,
what are you doing? Like whatdo you think you're on that?
What are you on the floor?Four? If you're gonna taking it to

(02:04):
George Nang has an open three andyou're not taking it, then you should
be pulled from the lineup. Likewhat do you think he's there for his
defense for harsh language, for peopleto be intimidated as by his physical body,
like you made, No, he'snot there for that, No way,
He's there to shoot threes. AndI don't know what was happening but
I feel like, look, youcan't get the bosson. Celtics shot forty

(02:28):
from the field and shot fifty oneshots from three and they made twenty of
them. I don't really know howmuch better of a day they can get.
You can either tell me that we'regonna play better primitive defense, or
you're just gonna say, look,it wasn't our day and we just come
back regroup with the inspiration of ahome court advantage that I just don't see

(02:49):
us not being inspired in Game three. I think you have to be happy
about the fact that you got thehome court advantage. Now you won one
on the road that was perfect,and the Sixers are in a better spot
because of that. I mean,some of these issues like perimeter defense,
as you mentioned, that's been anissue all regular season and gonna be an
issue when your backcourt consists of Maxieand James Harden. But still they've been

(03:13):
able to win a lot of gamesdespite that. So it's like, this
is gonna be a tough series.You knew you had to at least take
one, and they did take one, and I had to say, at
least take one. It was goingto be difficult to take one away from
Boston, especially with one of thosegames without embeed and the fact that they
did it, Harden's gonna do alot better. Like you just said,
I mean two of eleven from thefloor over six from three. The way
he started out, that's something that'syou know, gonna happen at times to

(03:37):
players. But I think Harden's gonnabe a lot better in Game three.
I think you're gonna get a betterperformance at a maxim pretty much every single
guy in Game three, at leastfrom what I saw. The one thing
you want to see in that game, I think is Joel moving Okay?
Does he look somewhat healthy, Doeshe look like he can play at a
high level? And for me,obviously he hasn't played a lot, so
I thought he was rusty. Butoutside of that, I thought he moved

(03:58):
well and I thought he actually gotbetter offensively is the game went along.
That to me is like a Okay, signs are Signs are good there,
and it's probably gonna get even betterin Game three with him. Plus I
think his swats he alters the gameat the rim, and there were so
many easy shots that had we nothad him until Boston had to change drastically
the way they played offensive. Gametwo. Now, again they shot threes

(04:19):
well, and they shot a lotof threes and they shot three as well,
so it worked. But the firstgame they got into paint easily and
they had they six is a norim protector. This time around, they
tried to get into paint early,couldn't, so just settled for every single
three that they could. Yep.So look, I'm happy with it.
I think the bigger shocker is,you know, it's Stewart die on Phoenix's

(04:41):
side. Is this a testament tolate season trades of superstars? Allah,
when we got James Harden towards thetrade deadline, we couldn't really get into
the flow of things and individual starson that Phoenix team, as great as
during is, can you just assemblea team that late in the season expect

(05:02):
them to win an NBA title?And I think Denver is showing you need
to have continuity. You need tohave an understanding of the game of basketball
and what your goals are as ateam on offense and defense. You can't
just pluck in the third best playerin the NBA and just say, well,
I have the seventh best score inthe third best score in the NBA
on the same team, who canmake their own shots, and we're gonna

(05:24):
win because you need a lot morethan that. We've seen it throughout this
playoffs. Look at Phoenix. Phoenixonly has Devin Booker and Kevin Durhett and
getting their butts kick. That's whatI'm saying. Are the Sun a Sun
perfect example of you cannot assemble asuper team that late in the season.
Maybe next year they could because theyhave all the pieces. But like you

(05:45):
know, I look at that teamand I say to myself on a piece
of paper, how is Denver smokingthem? You know, they're basically five
stars on their team. Yeah,because Denver has a well rounded lineup that
can attack you from many different timeand they've been playing together for a long
time. But even look at theLakers, it's more than It's more than
just Anthony Davis and Lebron James.It's Ruby had Chamore at times, it

(06:09):
is Austin Reeves had a game,D'Angelo Russell had a game. Vanderbilt did
well against Steph Curry in Game one. You know, they even get contributions
from others, So they're gonna needthat. They're gonna need Maxie. It's
gonna be on Maxie, Tobias,PJ. Tucker, Danthy Melton, and
whoever the hell can step up onthe bench to do something outside of hardening
and beat, so we can talkabout Harden and beat all. We won,

(06:30):
and I think a beat even ifhe puts up his average thirty three,
I don't know if that's enough.You know what's interesting is that between
the West and the East, Ifeel like the Lakers Golden State was just
put together magically through like the NBA'sdesire to have people watch that series.
But I can tell you that boththose teams, whoever wins that they're gonna
lose in in four straight. LikeI think if Denver, like I think

(06:55):
they're a bunch of pretending old scrubteams. Like I don't think the Lakers
or Golden State wins one game againstthe Denver Phoenix. I think I think
Denver wins in five, maybe evena sweep. But if Denver wins in
five or sweep, they will literallywin five or sweep against whoever wins that
got like they So Golden State wentGame seven with Sacramento, who the Lakers

(07:24):
won. Oh, I'm really I'mimpressed with that, like they were playing
babies, they were playing teams thathave no legitimate top ten stars on them,
like they win Game seven with theSacramento games. Give me a break,
like, I mean, you knowwhat I'm saying, Like, I
don't know about you, but Idon't find whatever the Lakers are Golden State
to do. It's it's it's justan illusion. It's not real. Even

(07:46):
if you think that Steph Curry scoreis fifty against Sacramento, who cares like
to play against Denver? You're notscoring fifty, Like, it's just not
happening. I don't know if Ifeel that way about the West because I
feel like the Lakers are Golden State. Now if it's Denver, you know,
Dever is gonna be really tough tobeat and Denver is going to be
a favorite, and I would leanDenver to win that series. But this
is a part of me that wouldgive the Lakers or Golden State a chance.

(08:09):
I feel that exact same way thatyou do about the Eastern Conference.
Though, if if Boston or theSixers Heat Knicks are not beating either of
these two teams, yeah, andyou got you gotta give a Spolstra credit
again, and Jimmy a ton ofcredit and Jimmy Butler absolutely a ton of
credit for what they've done. Howcan they even continue with this team this

(08:31):
deep into the playoffs with that lineupand losing Tyler hero like I don't it's
mind boggling. And then even nothaving Jimmy Butler and to realize that,
Okay, obviously Jimmy's been probably thebest player in this playoffs, so it's
not taking anything away. But thenext step is, so what is Miami
team Miami's team actually like without JimmyButler. And then we've seen, oh,

(08:52):
they actually just they have players thatimproved and players that they developed that
maybe we don't know about or maybewe don't give a lot of credit to,
but they played all awesome in Gametwo, and maybe that Miami team
is actually just a more developed teamthan we thought. And then add on
to that the fact that Jimmy Butler'splaying the best of any player in these
playoffs, then you have a goodteam. But I think I think eventually
that runs out against a team likeBoston or six Ers. Here's what I

(09:13):
understand, like Miami. Miami hasfive undrafted players on the roster, and
that was the same case last year, and they were I just don't see
Spolstra is coach of the century andJimmy Butler's the David Ortiz of the NBA
basketball is most likely the best coachin the league right now. Yes,

(09:37):
right, you would. I wouldsay if I had to pick a coach
right now, he would be numberone exactly. So we're on the same
page here. Now let's talk aboutlet's talk about some baseball here. Value
pick Phillies twenty five to one,twenty to one in one book on still
winning the World Series Bryce Harper's back, I would say one through a best

(10:00):
lineup in old baseball pitching. Youknow, ranger swars on the injured list,
he comes back, you get apitcher during the trade deadline. I
honestly think twenty to one is valuemoney right there. Yeah, you're buying
low on them right now because they'vehad injuries and the bullpen has been up
and down. But I think you'reright if you are. It's not the

(10:22):
same thing as the Cardinals. Sothe Cardinals are right now digging themselves a
huge hole. And I even likethe Cardinals coming into the season, So
it looks like I'm getting this completelywrong. But the Cardinals have dug themselves
this huge hole, and you lookat pitching and go, how can it
get any better? I can atleast look at the Phillies and go,
okay, well, how can itget better? Well, Wheeler and Nola
could definitely get better. And that'srealistic, right, realistic that they are

(10:43):
going to pitch better than they have. Ranger Swartz is coming back even to
Walton Walker is likely going to pitchbetter than he has. Then you have
the bullpen, which they've already shownsigns of getting better, and I can
say, yeah, Alvarado has beengreat, Dominguz is only going to get
better. You have other guys aswell that I'm for some reason for getting
out to do. But I wouldsay, and I think that the key
part of this is that the hardestthing to ever acquire in Major League Baseball

(11:07):
is a quality fifteen game starter.Right, That's the hardest thing for anybody
you pay any amount of money.Ungodly contracts are signed for anybody that cantally
so if Rangers swore is I thinkis twenty four and eight in his career
in the majors, something ridiculous likethat to start his career last two season.
Yeah awesome. If he comes back, okay, and he becomes a

(11:31):
starter, your third starter or arguablyyour fifth guy in the rotation becomes a
bullpen guy. Well okay, nowyou the trickle down effect of bringing a
fifteen game winner your bullpen gets,then you get stronger and station Yep.
That's why I'm saying they're a valuebet. And I mean Kyler Schwarberts Kyle
Schwarbert is not hitting the ball.Maybe care at on trans jink some I

(11:52):
don't know, ummal you know,but but that lineup, by the way,
it's just insane. That lineup isinsane. Stock hits the ball,
bowmits the ball, and and freakingBrandon Marsh's got a new swing. See
Nick Castiano's Ladies and Gentlemen in theCover off the Ball right now, right,

(12:13):
a guy that we were all crappingon last year. It's like he
was absent for class and now wedecided to show up and get all a's.
Like I mean, I'm telling youthat lineup, there's not a single
easy out from one through eight inthat lineup. Like you want to rest
on too, You want to reston that lineup and being so good.
If you're going to make a betlike that, it's that the line is

(12:35):
so good. And again, theCardinals have a great lineup, and so
you expect that to get better.But they're pitching. You just have no
idea because there's no answer. Ifeel like I could say, like we've
been saying, the Phillies have answersthere, and as long as they have
some answers there, the lineup isgonna be top tier. The lineup is
gonna be tops in baseball, orat least close to it. I just
can't think, you know, youknow, when I used to watch the

(12:56):
Socks and the Yankees a lot thosechampionships. Reason that the Yankees won all
the time in the nineties with Wetlandand Mariano and Jeter and all those guys.
What you learn most about watching thosegames is that there was a science,
scientific approach, a cerebral approach toevery at bat one through seven in
that lineup. Even guys like ScottBroches would take at bats like it was

(13:20):
a scientific at bat of where ishe trying to work me? What it
should I be looking outside the plate? Inside play? Why do you throw
me that slider. Do you knowwhat I'm saying? A cerebral approach to
batting. That's how I feel likeeverybody on the Phillies have, even the
young guys. Yes, um,I just think the Phillies. The Phillies

(13:41):
have it all, you know.I think the young guys. I think
the veterans, the guys that theygot last year, like Nick Castiano's getting
better. Bryce Harper already looks likean MVP through like two or three games.
It's it's all there for them,I think, And it's just a
matter of getting it all together.And really what I mean by that is
just getting healthy. And this team, I feel like it is competitive like

(14:03):
the Mets. The Mets are goingthrough issues as well, you know,
it's it's the beginning of the season. I think. The one thing I
keep hearing all the time is thePhillies pitching isn't good. And yes,
right now it's terrible. Right nowthey are getting crushed. But I even
remember this happening last year. Theywere just getting absolutely hammered night after night.
But then everything got better. Wheelergot healthier, Nolana got better in
the summer months. Rangel Suarez gotbetter in the second half of the season

(14:26):
and then they were good enough toend up getting them to the World Series.
So I don't know the Eagles.So switch switching to the NFL where
the Eagles won the draft. MyAlexa literally had a cover story the day
after the draft that said, didthe Eagles win the draft? Is that

(14:46):
one of the funniest things you've everheard of? We won the draft?
Well, the fact that the Eagleshaven't won many drafts before that they end
up I mean in the last twoyears, I think winning the draft because
last year they ended up making thatDraft Day trade. Then they get Jordan
Davis. Now this year they justget an absolute stud at defensive tackle and

(15:07):
a great defensive end. Yeah,they win the draft yet again. And
Howie Roseman looks like the biggest geniusin well what do you fee at the
moment? And here's the greatest partabout Howie Roseman. He actually evolved.
Yeah, from trying to aspart thedraft by picking small crap conference players like

(15:28):
Jalen Rager and Arson Whiteside to realizing, oh, all I need to do
is pick an SEC player for GeorgiaAlabama who's a stud, and I'll actually
win the draft. I want that. I think I think he is taking
a analytical approach that like if youif you if you use analytics or like

(15:48):
metrics, I don't know how youwould want to put this in the draft,
but like all of these very smartthings would tell you to take defensive
ends, defensive tackles, live versivers, quarterbacks when you can if you need
them. There's a lot of valueon those positions, and you spend top
draft picks for them. And ifyou spend top draft picks on premium positions,

(16:10):
some guys might not work out,but for the most part, you
might get a Pro bowler. Likethere's a higher chance you get a Pro
Bowl guy out of that position,out of that pick, then you would
later on. And so if youspend those higher draft picks on premium positions,
you're going to get better players.And so I think Howard Roseman has
done that. He's drafted a lotof defensive tackles, He's drafted wide receivers,
spent for wide receivers, spent fordefensive backs. You know, he's

(16:32):
doing all of that at positions ofneed. And then you go running back
later on, or you get arunning back off of a trade on a
one year deal, or you geta safety off of a trade last year
and a one year deal like GardnerJohnson, and you just plug in linebackers
that you can get maybe later onin the drafts, linebackers that you get
on one or two year deals,but you get defensive tackles and defensive ends
that can rush the quarterback because that'sa premium in the NFL. Now,

(16:56):
you spend on defensive backs because that'sa premium in the NFL. Wide receivers
premium in the NFL. So it'samazing that Roseman has changed this process.
And the process now is I think, you know, very simple and it
works. Yeah. But but butto go to talk about one part of
your points of saying wide receiver,Yeah, I understand that he went for

(17:17):
a wide receiver last year and hewas smart. But what I'm saying is
he went for wide receiver to yourpoint that it's a great position and draft,
but he went for guys like JalenRager and our Sega white side.
Yeah, players that played in crapconferences, and he thought he was outsmarting
the scouts. Now he's at leastgoing with what people have scouted and said

(17:37):
Jalen Carter could be the number onetalent coming out of the draft period,
coming out of the draft, GenerationalPro Bowl Hall of Fame defensive tackle.
Which makes sense also when you seeFletcher Cox at the tail end of his
career, right, yeah, he'snot he's not reaching for players in your
right, not trying to outsmart theroom, because the easy pick would have

(17:57):
been Justin Jefferson. I mean,and and the knobs on Justin Jefferson wasn't
that he wasn't a good enough athlete, wasn't this, It's just that he
played slot a lot and they didn'tthink he could play outside. We passed
over CD Lamb as well. Yeah, these all guys that were touting were
well ahead of whoever we picked.But he was like, oh, I'm

(18:18):
gonna out smart everybody. I'll takea guy was trying not smart to take
Jalen Reagor, who had not produceda ton in college and was a decent
wide receiver. But you were doingit based off of just speed and just
like raw speed and thinking, Okay, well we need athletes and athletes we
can coach and you can coach themto beat. No, you just draft
good football players and Justin Jefferson wasa good football player. Davante Smith is

(18:41):
a good football player. James Carter. No, Smith has been really successful
and productive in college. But theyalso testaul. So yeah, it's a
it is a very formulate process nowthat Howie Roseman has gotten and it's it's
a very simple one, even thoughby the way, the teams that they
don't make it simple and Hawary Rosemanused to not make it that simple.
And by the way, for thenext five years, we have a quarterback,

(19:03):
We've got a wide receiver, We'vegot a defensive tackle, We've got
you know, a defensive end.We've got every piece. The only thing
that I'm worried about is a don'thave any linebackers. That's fine, but
we also don't have I mean,we need Nakobe Dean to do what he
did in college. And then wealso need one other thing, and that's

(19:23):
a replacement for an All Star,All Pro Hall of Fame guy and Lane
Johnson, who is going to retirein the next couple of years. Like,
because you can replace a center likeKelsey, you cannot replace a tackle.
I mean, you know, likeLane Johnson. Yeah, I mean,
so I'm worried about that that's ouronly hole in the next five years.

(19:44):
Well, the good thing is theystill have all these top picks that
are going to be coming their wayfor the next year or so, so
they I mean, that's something thatthey are going to spend on. Right.
Howie Roseman loves drafting defensive and offensivelineman, and he's drafted defensive lineman
now and when the time comes,I think Pep will have no problem drafting
an offensive lineman high in the draft. So you really like, I mean

(20:04):
Leapers next year? That's the question, because I'm looking at this board and
there you know. The problem isthe Eagles are the second highest favorite at
eight to one. The Chiefs aresix to one, the nine Ers or
nine to one kind of one.The Bengals are eleven and one that the
Jets ridiculously are fourteen to one,so they're basically the sixth highest favorite to

(20:26):
win the Super Bowl. I likethe Jets, but not at that number
because it's just the AGCs too goodand I don't know if I like them
that much. So I understand thatkind of like the Chargers at twenty eight
to one, even though you're notare not no, No, I know
I am. I love her,but I absolutely love her. But they
got rid of the one problem thereand that was their offensive system and their

(20:48):
offensive coordinator. And they bring inKellen Moore and Kelln Moore is made Dak
Prescott into a top five quarterbacks attimes a quarterback at times. So I
think he's good. His system worksfor quarterbacks. His system is made for
quarterbacks to flourish in it. Andif Justin Herbert takes to the system,
then I think this is going tobe a great offense. That did end
up drafting even more in the NFLDraft at wide receiver, So I think

(21:11):
this this could be a great offenseand it could really unlock Justin Herbert into
the quarterback that we all know wecan be and know that we've seen.
Well it is right, so that'sa question. He is right, he
is, but it just locks iteven more in a way that I don't
think the offense before allowed him to. But he still from an elite quarterback

(21:33):
perspective, right, because I thinkI think Herbert's a first ballot Hall of
Famer by the time he's done hiscareer. I think the Chargers at twenty
eight to one, you have toput money on it. I think you
have to take the Broncos at fortyto one, and I know that you'd
say, what are you crazy?I'm just saying, like, forty to
one, if there's a shot,just a shot and help that you're talking.
Russell Wilson comes back to seventy fivepercent A Warrior one was two years

(22:00):
You go, I don't know.The Broncos at forty to one A are
delicious and the Giants are fifty toone delicious, which seems to be like
I would actually throw some money onthem at fifty to one. Um,
you know. Aside from that,all the rest of these seems stink in
the dwellers like I don't see Sleepershere. I don't know if I board,
but I'm with you on the Chargers. Chargers might be the best.

(22:22):
What about the Browns? Do youhear about John Watson there he's talking silently
that thirty five to one then winningthe Super Bowl. He's like, you
know, I think we're like theEagles from last year. He's like,
I don't people are thinking about us, and he's talking a lot of silent
smack. Well he's Jalen Hurts.So I'm right. Thinking of that discussion,
I know, I just I don'tsee the Browns. I think I

(22:45):
can see the path for the Chargersbecause if that offense does flourish in a
new system, then Justin Herbert's justgonna throw the ball. You know,
he could end up throwing over closeto forty if not more, touchdowns,
and their defense is going to bestill pretty good. I like the Chargers
there. I think it's a goodby low spot because I think everybody the
last two years has kind of gottensnake bitten by them. So I like

(23:06):
the Chargers. And you're not gonnalike it, but and maybe the price
isn't warranted for it. But Jacksonville, Jacksonville is that Jacksonville is a team
that can make that jump in yeartwo under Doug Peterson like he did previously
with the Eagles. And you know, I like the Eagles just in with
Jaels. They're playing inspired, nodoubt, by the way. The Celtics,
which is crazy. This is crazyas we stand here today with the

(23:27):
Celtics losing home field advantage. Okay, what do you think their futures are
to win the NBA titles? Oh? NBA title? Oh so I know
they were a favorite in the seriesminus three or five, and imagine it's
gotta be still like minus two fifty. Um, they okay on the series'
no no, no no. Andfor the title yeah, um uh plus

(23:52):
eight hundred plus one sixty that's allyou're getting to win the champelus one sixty
to win the NBA title. Ifind that too. Okay, that's gotta
be just because people think that they'regoing to be able to get there easily
because they're such a big favorite againstthe Sixers in the series, and then

(24:12):
the heat Knicks are going to beeasy to beat in the Eastern Cofference Final.
But if you're talking about that doesn'tmatter with me, because I don't
know from what I've seen from Bostonif they could beat Denver Lakers or Golden
State or even the Suns, oreven the Suns right now, I don't
even know if Boston could beat thenright I don't know if Boston's beating Denver.
I'm just saying, like you're tellingme, you're getting only plus one

(24:33):
sixty to win the entire title.The Nuggets are four to one. I
can understand if they were maybe youknow, three eighty, but you tempted
by the nugget. It's not alive. That's four to one's not a
live. But are you tempted totake the n Remember I took the Nuggets
in the Sixers big. I mean, I'm talking about I win one hundred
thousand dollars on you know, fivethousand bucks on the Nuggets, like six

(24:53):
thousand dollars. I took the Nuggetson like Nuggets chiefs chiefs to win the
you know, an NFL title forhedging. I took uh, you know,
the Houston Astros and the Nuggets,Like I have just crazy futures.
The Nuggets win, I'm winning onehundred g's on five grand. But same
with the six But I don't,yeah, if they if they both play
each other, I'm chooges watching thegame and smoking cigars. But I just

(25:18):
find it shocking that the Celtics areplus one sixty and the Nuggets are four
to one. The Lakers. You'vegot to be smoking crack cocaine from the
eighties. You're telling me that theLos Angeles Lakers are literally the third favorite
to win the NBA title at fiveto one, and then the Sixers are
seven to One's lake of course,of course it's going to be aggressive with

(25:40):
the Lakers. You know what,it's a good value bet is the Suns
are twelve to one unless Chris Paul'sout, because the Suns are supposed to
lose the two games in Denver,you're supposed to lose. I'm with you
on that. I think Phoenix isjust getting written off way too quickly.
They haven't played a home game yet. They haven't played a home game,
right, But we've seen all thetime Golden State lost the first two again

(26:00):
Sacramento, didn't they and then theyended up winning the series. We've seen
this. This story happens all thetime. So oh my gosh, you're
up to nothing, the series isover, and then the team goes back
home and they start winning and theymake this the series a series again.
But I think I'm not running offPhoenix, and you know you're obviously getting
into I think the key though,is that Chris Paul's out for games three,

(26:25):
four, and five, and ifyou're gonna lose, yeah, I
mean, I'm sorry, but you'relosing Chris Paul three through five. I
don't know whether or not they're nearlygoing to be the same team with a
Hall of Fame first ballot. Youknow, mid range shooting point guard that
averages seventeen points and nine losing apoint guard in general, I mean that

(26:47):
never never ends up going well.That's a tough that's a tough thing to
come back from. I mean,Kevin Booker and Kevin Durant are are different,
though, and they're certainly talented.You're basically telling me that if the
Lakers win, okay, they're seriesokay. You're telling me that the Lakers
are almost even money with the Nuggetsto win the title. If the Lakers

(27:07):
won that series and they played theNuggets, do you believe that the Nuggets
are only gonna be like minus onetwenty for the series. If so,
I'm jumping all over the Nuggets.I don't need to, but you might.
You might want. You might wantto jump all over the Nuggets then,
because I don't think it would bethat, you know what, maybe
a minus won forty. I mean, but you actually think that the Lakers

(27:30):
stand a chance against the Nuggets.I just don't. Jamal Murray looks way
too. I'm not compleating the rightenough. I think the Lakers would have
a chance, But I'm with youI think Dever would win that series,
but it's still Lebron James and AnthonyDavis, and they would have played well
enough they got them to Western ConferenceFinals, and everybody's gonna be loving the
Lakers if that's the case. Imean, you're gonna get you know,

(27:52):
the you know how it is,Lakers are always gonna get a discount or
at least a shorter price. It'sit's always you have to pay for not
just Lebron, but you gotta payfor the Laker brand as well in that
and they're always going to get thatkind of number from the books because people
love betting on the Lakers and Lebron. So with the question then also becomes
future bets for Major League Baseball,you know at the end of the day.

(28:18):
Yeah, this is a good exerciseafter months of the season because I
haven't checked out any of these updatedyet or what they would be, so
this is a well I think Ithink the Dodgers at seven to one are
actually a pretty good value bet.They're tied with the Devil Raise. I
think the question is who's coming fromthe al It looks like they're saying the
Devil raise the Astros and the Yankeesare the top three? Are the Yankees

(28:41):
just have no power at the bottomthey're lineup? Yeah, Yankees might be
in trouble. Yeah, Yankees arein trouble. Like I just I don't
see it. I think that theAL is really weak this year. I
think that you could easily see aPhiladelphia Phillies like wild card team and the
AL getting hot with some players inthe trade deadline, Like maybe because all

(29:04):
the you know, for all likethe panic about the Phillies, what other
team above them would you say?Is like, man, these this team's
good because the other the only onethat I have been very impressed with that
looks almost flawless is the Braves.That's the only team Astros have looked flawed.

(29:25):
The Dodgers are getting better, butthey're still flawed. Rays are great,
but you just don't know how longto be able to keep up what
they're doing, even though I dolike their pitching and I like their lineup.
So if everything, if they stayhealthy and they're especially they're starting rotations,
stays healthy, they're contenders. SoI would put them. I'll say
that's two. The Yankees are terrible. The Padres they don't feel great about
Toronto. I don't feel great aboutthe Mets. I don't feel great about

(29:47):
the Brewers. They don't feel greatabout the Twins. I don't feel great
about the Cardinals. Those are allteams above the Phillies. In that conversation,
Well, and you know what,I think it all comes down to,
why are the Braves playing so well? Timely hitting and great pitching.
But the reality is, if youlook at the lineup of the Braves,
they don't roll the candle to ourlineup, like I'm just saying, like
Bryson Stott is leading the Yeah,they're definitely the Braves lineup is very good.

(30:11):
I think they're better than the PhillyNow, the Phillies, I think
are going to be once the numbersall settle at the end of the season.
You're the Phillies are gonna right,not far off. But I think
the Braves lineup is potent. It'svery good. But the difference is they're
They're starting pitching is top to bottommuch better than the Phillies. That's what
I'm saying. Yeah, that's athat's a tough part. That's Braves are

(30:33):
just an all around great team andthey have been for years now, right,
I think I would put the Bravesof having like four solid hitters on
their team, like four, Imean acuted. They got a superstar,
right and they got Olson Albis andand uh, you know, Murphy's hitting
the ball pretty well. But butI'm saying, like, if you,
if you watch the Phillies as youdo, you know that we've a very

(30:55):
very cerebral, tough out nine pitchof sech count, no no doubt about
it. And that's what I loveabout our team. So I just feel
like our hitting maybe makes up forthe pitching, especially if Rangers Wars can
come back, because the ultimately RangersWars is the unknown soldier, you know,

(31:17):
Yeah, and I think needs tobe. That's that's got to be
a much bigger deal than I'm sureit's made out to be right now,
because Ranger Suarez has been if youlook back through the last two seasons,
he is the RA looks like Ithink it's near the tops in the National
League. I'm not saying, butadding in a guy that could end up
getting into ARRA of like three pointthree, three point four and give and

(31:38):
eat up a bunch of innings foryou, I mean, that's that's a
perfect guy to add in the middleof your rotation, and that because everybody
wants the well, where's the twopoint five ra guy. There's not a
lot of those right now in MajorLeague Baseball. There are not a lot
of those guys. Ranger Suarez numberstranslate to a very good number three starter,
and I think that needs to bemade a bigger deal. Like you

(32:00):
said, the trickle down effect aswell, because then you get a bullpen
guy and Matt Stroum who's gonna begreat in the bullpen. And we talked
about this last year in the WorldSeries. I said, what do you
think readers sworez Is Careel's career statsare because he's only been in the league
for thirty years, and then wetry to guess that nic said he was

(32:20):
twenty five and fifteen with a threepoint one two. It's really good.
The guy has been great. Obviously, we saw we saw during the postseason
run last year he can do allhe was He was amazing. So we're
adding him to the lineup. I'mjust telling you just the swagger that these
guys have, uh you know,the averages, Like you said, if
Nolan Wheeler are healthy, they're gonnaaverage out to being fifteen game winners with

(32:45):
three point five rs. And whenyou just make the playoffs like we did
last year, I'm just telling you, I think that twenty to one,
that's ridiculous. The fact that theEagles one like twenty to one on the
Phillies right now, that's unbelievable.Yeah again, right now, it doesn't
look good, But that doesn't meanthat's how it's going to finish. I
think the start always blinds people towhat what the law of averagers are going

(33:08):
to say, which the law ofaverage to say that Zack Wheeler and Aaronola
are going to get much better thanthey have been. And even with threakers
artist, you know, I thinkit's gonna take it back. It's thirty
to one now the Phillies as wesit here today, because they got swept
by the Dodgers by one hundred runs, they dropped from twenty to one to
thirty to one. I'm sorry,man, thirty to one take the Phillies.

(33:31):
If you've ever seen a thirty toone better bet than that, that's
good. Yeah, I find thatI find that really good. I don't
know, maybe maybe that's just ahommer biased thing, but I find that
to be very good. And againI see answers for the Phillies even though

(33:52):
they don't look like answers. Now, I can still see things in the
law of averages getting better when Iknow if I could see that with other
teams, like let's just say theCardinals who just don't have pitching, and
I don't know how it gets better. All right, that is it for
beating your bookie. Fox Sports Gamblerdidn't check us out every Thursday six to
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