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August 29, 2025 • 42 mins
So big, Nebraska's Rep. Don Bacon called in to talk about it!
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Episode Transcript

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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Big news in politics today. The it's on i was
side of the river. So if you're a Nebraska person,
you might be saying, how does this affect me?

Speaker 2 (00:08):
It does.

Speaker 1 (00:10):
Here this Jony Ernst, the junior senator from Iowa, and
she's the junior senator because Chuck Grassley is still somehow
alive and in the Senate. But Joni Ernst has told
confidants that next week she is planning on announcing she
is not going to run for reelection. Now, certainly it

(00:30):
was not her plan to somehow let this get leaked
to the media. How do you feel about that? By
the way, you have to report. You have to report.
And I'm thinking to myself, Man, this is a huge

(00:50):
life decision she was gonna make. And the people that
were closest to her that she talked to, somebody told
somebody in the media and this got out before she
wanted to make the announcement.

Speaker 3 (01:00):
Have control over it.

Speaker 1 (01:02):
Because when Kim Reynolds announced that she wasn't seeking reelection
in twenty twenty six, a few months back, she had
a video out ready to go and it got posted.
Nobody said a thing until that happened. She was able
to control the whole thing, and you know, do all
the media after that. How do you feel?

Speaker 2 (01:19):
How do I feel?

Speaker 3 (01:20):
Yeah? What would like like.

Speaker 2 (01:22):
Just the someone close to her leaked it?

Speaker 1 (01:25):
Yeah?

Speaker 2 (01:26):
Well I don't know how many people she told, but
chances are she told somebody who saw an opportunity. Let's
look at it this way. Emory, you're on Senator Jony
Ernst's staff. Yes, you're her deputy director of looking out
the windows or whatever. And you're thinking, wait a second,
my job here, Mike Cushy government job might be about
to come to an end. I need to already sidle

(01:48):
up close to someone else, someone else who can win
this seat, and tell them, Hey, I want to give
you the inside scoop and track on this. Jony Ernst
is not going to run for reelection. I think that
you could be the next junior Senator for the great
State of Iowa. And by the way, I'm Jony Ern's
deputy chief of looking out the windows and.

Speaker 3 (02:07):
You might need one of those.

Speaker 2 (02:08):
Yeah, if you need one of those, I'm available to
help you right now. And so then that person tells
someone and then next thing you know, Emory Songer knows
about it. And if Emory knows then everyone else is
gonna know because that guy's got a mouth on him.

Speaker 1 (02:24):
Mmmmmm yeah. But that's my my thing, my problem. I
wonder if there's a scenario, and you know, just one,
just one little thing that I guess is we're a
victim of the TMZ era where I'm sure somebody actually

(02:46):
got paid for that information. Not not necessarily because they
thought they could get another bit of in like a
maybe another job or something, but anonymous source who has
an anonymous source in the press. I saw CBS News
had this first, so I'm just gonna use them as
the example. They call up their person at CBS News

(03:08):
and say, you're never gonna believe this, but I got
dirt on johny Ernst's reelection plans, and I will tell
you all I know.

Speaker 3 (03:18):
For ten thousand dollars.

Speaker 2 (03:19):
Who's gonna pay a one thousand dollars for that? So
we can report it five minutes earlier than somebody else,
no one will know we broke the story. Plus, it's
not that big story. It doesn't change anything that much
right now, does it?

Speaker 1 (03:35):
It does as far as the Democratic Party, and I
was concerned because they are seeing this as Joni's running away.
Although if you go back to twenty fourteen, when johniy
Urns first ran for Senate, she explicitly said she planned
on running for two terms and that was it. Now
people change their mind on this stuff all the time,
and she's not term limited by any means. But you
could just kind of tell, I could tell, I guess

(03:56):
the way that she was talking this year, things were
just getting a little looser. Things are getting just a
little bit more the whole well, we're all going to die.
She is to get a little less patient with the
people that are coming to her events. She's in her
mid fifties, so she's really not that old for a politician.
She has an entire new chapter in life that she
can go attack. I wonder what that means for her

(04:19):
in politics. I wonder what it means for her and
what she plans to do. Because if she wants to
stay in politics and just wants to be in Iowa more,
well I got a good option for you. There's the
wide open seat at the governor's house.

Speaker 2 (04:35):
Do you think she wants to be governor?

Speaker 1 (04:36):
I don't know if she wants to do anything. I'm
just saying that if you wanted to stay in politics,
and just be home because she's from Red Oak, Iowa.

Speaker 3 (04:43):
It's not des Moines.

Speaker 1 (04:44):
But if she wanted to stay in politics, there is
an opportunity in twenty twenty six to just slide right
into another seat and she would be, I think, uniquely
positioned to have a chance. It's going to be competitive.
I don't get to read that's what she wants. What
I find even more fascinating about this story is that
my friend Jeff Angelo from her Sisters Station ten forty,
who very well connected guy. Got a lot of other

(05:07):
people that are out there in the ether that are
kind of they have ears to the ground.

Speaker 3 (05:14):
In DC.

Speaker 1 (05:15):
Second Congressional District Representative Ashley Hinson, who I've gotten a
chance to talk to a few times here in the
last couple of months. She apparently is positioning herself to
leave her seat in Congress and be the front running
Republican to take Jony Earn's Senate seat. Now again, I

(05:38):
would have to talk to her about why she thinks
that she can make a bigger difference there and if
she thinks that her take like not being an incumbent
in her original seat and going to the Senate, if
that's going to help.

Speaker 3 (05:51):
It is going to be a competitive race in district too.

Speaker 1 (05:54):
So all of a sudden, the state of Iowa is
losing its Republican governor. It's Republicans senator, a Republican who
is in the fourth Congressional district, Randy Feinstra is running
for governor of the state of Iowa. So there's going
to have to be a new Republican to come in there.
That's a very red district that would not be surprised.
It's Potawatamie County by the way. That district, I'd be

(06:16):
stunned if it's close, let alone a Democrat winning. But
still that's going to be a new face in District
four as Randy Fiinstra is running for governor. Then you
have Ashley Henson in District two. She's leaving that race
to try to run for Senate. But now all of
a sudden, that opens that race completely up. And that
was going to be a competitive race and included cedar
rapids in Iowa City. And then we know the Marrionette

(06:39):
Miller Meeks seat in District one in Iowa Southeast Iowa
that has been competitive two of her elections. She's won
three elections two of the elections have been eighty votes
or less in between the two people.

Speaker 3 (06:51):
One of them was six votes that she.

Speaker 1 (06:52):
Won by and that included having to recount areas in
the quad Cities. And then lastly it was District three
Zach nunn is and he couldn't decide if he wanted
to run for governor of Iowa or try to stay there,
and Donald Trump, I think sold him, You've got to
stay there. We need a Republican to hold that seat,
and he's won the last two times. But one of

(07:13):
the top Democrats in the Iowa legislature, Sarah Tronngariot, has
announced she's going to try to challenge him for that
third congressional district seat, and that's going to be an
incredibly competitive race, I believe as well. So now Democrats
are uniquely positioned not just to make Iowa purple again,
but to have control over several opportunistic seats in a

(07:35):
very important twenty twenty six midterm election. We have to
be paying close attention to this, and then keep an
eye on obviously a Don Bacon seat here, which is
the same story, guy not running for reelection, and it's
becoming bluer and bluer by the day. How are you
going to find a Republican that can somehow find a
way to win when you see all of this John
Ewing and Kamala Harris and Dan Osborne numbers that were

(08:02):
winners in this district and somehow Bacon kept winning.

Speaker 3 (08:06):
I guess we're gonna have to see. But man, it
is puzzling.

Speaker 2 (08:09):
Texas will redraw Nebraska's districts before the midterm election. Don't
worry about that. The Republicans will be fine if Ashley
Hinson gets elected senator from Iowa. I know not a
lot of people run Iowa Council Bluffs might know who
she is. Here's an idea who she is. Former TV
and recently a Democrat announced she was running against her

(08:31):
in Iowa second congressional district. Here's the release she put out,
Bring it on. Lindsey James is a leftist lunatic who
apologized for being born a white woman. She thinks kids
should be able to choose their gender, but not their school.
She a posts school choice. This was the release from
the Hinson campaign about a week and a half agos. Yeah, ok, yeah,

(08:56):
she supports BLM protesters, wants to take away private health
insurance options for Iowan. So Ashley Hinson's kind of fun.
If that ends up being a Senate race, he gets
elected senator, that'd be a lot of fun. And you know,
I think the other option is really clear, and that
is that Senator Chuck Grassley needs to run for another term,

(09:16):
another six year term is a senator in Iowa.

Speaker 3 (09:19):
Yeah, so when's his Uh, he'll.

Speaker 2 (09:21):
Be five thousand years old at the end of that term,
and he'll still be in better shape than you and
all the other punks wondering how is he still there?

Speaker 1 (09:29):
A it's twenty twenty eight, by the way, is when
his race would come up, so well, and he'll be
I bet he does.

Speaker 3 (09:35):
I bet he does. I absolutely bet he does.

Speaker 2 (09:37):
He's just he's he is.

Speaker 1 (09:39):
Is no, no, he's he knows nothing, he said earlier
this week, you know, because someone's seeing a run for
the term.

Speaker 2 (09:45):
I don't know. Maybe you know he's just trolling people.

Speaker 3 (09:47):
Yeah, he will be ninety five and twenty twenty eight,
by the way.

Speaker 2 (09:50):
No big deal. If he's if he's still feeling the same,
he's going to do it then maybe and maybe he
should well.

Speaker 1 (09:57):
If the Republicans are struggling in Iowa all of a sudden,
that's possible.

Speaker 3 (10:01):
Two nineteen.

Speaker 1 (10:02):
We'll take more to angles on this a very important
day in politics across the on the Iowa side of
the river, and we have to keep an eye on
stuff that's.

Speaker 3 (10:12):
Going on here on news radio eleven ten kfab.

Speaker 2 (10:14):
Emily's on news radio eleven ten kfab.

Speaker 3 (10:19):
Scott Woarhe's with me. I'm Emory Songer.

Speaker 1 (10:21):
And how would you best describe the difference in Iowa
versus Nebraska politics? Because it feels very similar in its makeup.

Speaker 3 (10:31):
It's just.

Speaker 1 (10:33):
Three districts versus two four districts. On the Iowa side,
you have kind of a weird Omaha district that because
of the way that the people are versus you know,
des Moines is part of a much larger district in Iowa.
How would you best describe the difference between the two
of them?

Speaker 2 (10:53):
Obviously more population in Iowa. Nebraska's third district population, which
according to anyone in Omaha is anything west of like
two hundred and fourth Street, is like Nebraska's third district.
And so the the the Democrats in Omaha and Lincoln,
they don't even bother to try and go out and
see what someone thinks in Broken Bow, they don't even

(11:16):
bothereah Ogalala might as well be the moon. They're not
even going to go out there and bother. Whereas in Iowa,
you got these little pockets of blue and purple enough
there to where you can get elected to a council race,
a county board seat, because you got enough little towns
here and there that have some some really great things

(11:38):
going are colleges going on there. I mean, you've got
the Quad city area, which is, you know, the two
cities because the other two are in Illinois, and so
you got the two out there. You got the Iowa
City area there, Yeah, and you got des Moines, you
got ams you and then certainly council loves a little
more conservative. I think, well, some of these little towns,

(12:01):
I mean they it's it's not ridiculous to think that
there might be some pockets of liberalism here. But even
with all that extra population, I always still managed to
here as of late, be pretty staunchly red.

Speaker 1 (12:17):
It got as red as I've ever seen it, and
I don't think it's ever been really quite this red.
But that's what makes today's announcement all the more fascinating.
As far as johny Urns goes, we talk a lot
about incumbents and how they have a very unique advantage. Historically,
it is difficult to primary against and defeat an incumbent

(12:38):
unless there's some scandal or something, or it's incredibly difficult
to run a fresh faced, unknown candidate or a candidate
that's trying to break into politics at the national level
against an incumbent candidate. We saw that with Laddan Bekom,
a random, seemingly random guy. He's a former he's a
military guy. But he ran in the third district last

(13:02):
year against Zach Nunn, who's also a military guy. Zach
had already been there, had won an election, already been
there for a couple of years at the Capitol Building
in Washington.

Speaker 3 (13:12):
D C.

Speaker 1 (13:13):
Knew how to run this kind of election, had some
money behind him. Lenan Biccom started getting that out of
state money to try to like help, you know, very
Dan Osborne's situation that we saw here in Nebraska in
that Senate race. But Lennon Becom was a pretty big
nobody as far as most people were concerned, and never
really was able to It was a competitive race because

(13:35):
des Moines is so Liberal, but he never got over
the hump they have and I'm saying they, as in
the Democrats, have people who are not unknown to the
Iowa people lining up for some of these seats. The
Rob Sands governor race with Kim Heernold's not running for reelection,
that is very interesting. He is as notable as better like,

(13:57):
he has as good a name recognition as anybody on
the Republican side that is going to go after him
and try to compete with him. That includes Randy Fienstrow
who's leaving his seat in the fourth Congressional district, which
is Sue City, Spencer, the whole northwestern quadrant of Iowa,
but it comes down and includes Potawatamee County.

Speaker 3 (14:16):
Now then you have.

Speaker 1 (14:19):
It sounds like Mike Nagg, who's the Secretary of Agriculture
in Iowa, is going to run and compete with him.
So there's not even like one specific candidate that everybody's
rallying around on the Republican side yet for governor. Then
you have Ashley Hinton apparently about to leave hirstpot in
the second Congressional district to take Joony ernst seat or
attempt to take Johny ernsteat, but that's going to be competitive.

(14:40):
Zach Walls is one of the people who is the
best fundraiser in all of this state of Iowa, and
that includes he's in the state legislature and he has
basically said that he's going to run for the Senate
against johny Ernst. And he's been in this race for
months now, so he's already got a head start. Yes,
we know who Ashley Hinton is, but the Democrats have
Zach Walls and Josh Trurick, who's Western Iowa guy, is

(15:04):
also in the mix and he's quite popular.

Speaker 3 (15:07):
JD.

Speaker 1 (15:07):
Schulton, who is a representative in the state of Iowa,
he just endorsed Josh Trurick for running for Senate. So
there's a couple of Democrats that are going to make
it very competitive for whomever the Republican will be being
a new person. And then of course you have you
just talked about, you know, part of the race that

(15:31):
Ashley Hinton was about to have. It was getting very
like Lindsey James getting in that race. She was going
to be slinging some mutt and it was going to
get nasty and dirty. But now that's not going to
take place because she's going to have to wait for
another Republican, an unknown person at this point, to try
to take Ashley hinton spot. So now you can go
from a super conservative governor. They had a super majority

(15:54):
until this week. In the Iowa State Senate they had
a special election because the guy died. A Democrat won
that seat in Sioux City. You have now the possibility
of losing multiple seats in the House because it'll be
much more competitive and you have a couple of incumbents
that aren't running for reelection. You could lose a Senate
seat with Jody Ernst leaving and it going to be

(16:16):
competitive between Zach Walls and Josh Turuick versus Ashley Hintson.
It sounds like you could also lose the governor, you know.
So with Rob sand kind of setting himself up, you
could go from super red to more blue than red
in one election cycle.

Speaker 2 (16:32):
You left one thing out, well, you left one name
out in all of that. Oops, and that is the voter. Oh,
the voter. You know, that's an impressive list of names.
And I should point out Emory did that without notes.
You just went all across the state, did all of
that without a single note in front of you. I'm impressed,
thank you, But the voter still is saying, wait a second.

(16:55):
You're telling me, I'm gonna go away from voting for
common sense conservatives, who are strong conservatives like Caim Reynolds,
like Jony Orn's, like Ashley Hinson, and I'm going to
vote in favor of someone who's been telling me we
should still be locked down because of COVID, that the
stock market was going to tank when Trump got in office,
that everything was start costing more. We're now the lowest

(17:18):
point and gas prices we've been since the pandemic. The
president's trying to bring peace to Ukraine, to the Middle East,
and you've got liberal left wing nut jobs shooting up schools.
So you're telling me that the voter in Iowa that's
voted against all of that, it's suddenly like, you know,

(17:39):
some of that sounds pretty good to me.

Speaker 1 (17:41):
I will explain why I think it's plausible, and I
will use numbers to back up my argument. Next on
news radio eleven ten Kfab and Marie Sungner, and we're
talking Iowa politics. Here in Iowa, I know Nebraska. I
have a bunch of people from Nebraska that Usually when
I talk too much about Iowa, they're like, all right, enough,

(18:01):
enough is enough.

Speaker 3 (18:03):
I get, I hear it.

Speaker 1 (18:04):
I understand what you're saying, but just understand for me,
this is where I'm at. This could be a harbinger
of things to come for the Republican Party if you're
not careful, and this is something that you have to
keep in mind, especially in Omaha with the second congressional
seat that Don Bacon is vacating not running for reelection.

(18:25):
The big news today is that Joni Ernst is the
latest Republican in the state of Iowa to not seek
reelection in twenty twenty six. This has been met with
an answer of almost if it feels like certainly based
on the whispers behind the scenes that Ashley Henson, who's
currently serving in the representative of the second Congressional district,
which is northeastern Iowa, she is going to run for

(18:46):
the Senate seat instead, leaving that seat wide open. We
don't know who would be the backup Republican to try
to I'm sure there's going to be someone that's going
to be somewhat notable that will run for that seat.
Not sure who it is. Before the break Scott Vorhees.
You a Nebraska guy. You've never lived in Iowa. Nope,

(19:08):
never been there. Oh, come on, it's east of here, right, Yes,
it is, Okay, it's It's very funny the idea of
Iowa voters deciding all of a sudden that they like
democratic politics when Iowa has been in the last few
years as right as it has ever been.

Speaker 2 (19:28):
Yeah, what are they selling that Iowa is buying?

Speaker 3 (19:31):
Well, this is my.

Speaker 1 (19:34):
It's not that the Republicans and conservatism reigns supreme across
the entire state of Iowa. Like you mentioned, there's a
lot of pockets of a little blue here, little blue there,
Bigger pockets like the Moines, Cedar Rapids, Iowa City quad
cities that are a bit bluer. There are a lot
of little blue areas that can add up in these

(19:56):
districts a lot more than Nebraska has. Nebraska really has Omaha,
it really has Lincoln, and most other spots around the
state are pretty consistently conservative in Iowa. That isn't always
the case. I have before me the numbers for Jony
Earnst Senate races in twenty fourteen and twenty twenty. I

(20:17):
have all four of the recent elections of all four
of the congressional districts, and I have the Iowa gubernatorial race,
the governor's race. Keimer Renolds has been elected there twice.
I have both of those results for you. And my
argument isn't that it's conservative running wild. If conservatism running wild,
it's that Democrats have not had a good candidate for

(20:39):
most of these seats in years, and that is changing
by the day here with kind of a swelling of young,
more exciting, grassroots style Democrats who are already are resonating
in their districts for the state Senate or the state House,

(21:02):
or in Rob Sand's case, on a state level. He's
the only state elected official that's a Democrat. He's a
state auditor right now. And then you look at, you know,
across the board on all these other races. These are
people that are already pretty notable in Iowa, including Lindsay James,
including somebody like Sarah Trongarriot, who have been at the

(21:23):
House level in the state of Iowa, that are now
branching out and going for a bigger office versus someone
who hasn't necessarily won by a lot. Let me explain.
Let's start with the governor spot. This is you know,
Kim Reynolds not running for reelection. Rob sand is going
to be the Democrat that's going to run. He is notable,

(21:45):
as I mentioned, he has won election last two times
as a Democrat as a state auditor. Kim Reynolds in
twenty eighteen, that was the first election she had to win.
She was the lieutenant governor when Terry brand Said was
appointed to be the ambassador to China in Donald Trump's
first first presidential term. Kim Reynolds was appointed as governor
when he had to leave. She has to go through

(22:06):
a reelection in twenty eighteen. You know how the results
lined up against Fred Hubble, a fairly notable businessman and
politician in Iowa who was a Democrat, fifty to forty
eight percent.

Speaker 3 (22:20):
That is not a landslide.

Speaker 1 (22:22):
Now, the Democrats couldn't find anyone better than Deirdre de
jer who really hadn't achieved much of anything in the
state of Iowa. And that was the twenty twenty two
challenger for Kim Renoldson. She won much more handily fifty
eight to thirty nine percent. A libertarian picked up two
and a half percent. Now, without that the governor race
has been quite competitive. We have had Tom Vilsack, a Democrat,

(22:45):
was a longtime governor in Iowa when I was growing
up as a kid. Check Culver won a random election
as a Democrat for governor back in the twenty late
auts somewhere in there. So it is not unprecedented for
Iowa to have a Democrat as the governor. Iowa's first
congressional district would used to be the northeastern portion of Iowa.

(23:09):
It has since been flipped to the southeastern portion of Iowa.
But this is Ashley Henson's congressional district. In twenty twenty,
Ashley Henson defeated incumbent Democrat Abby Finkinauer fifty one to
forty nine percent when she ran in the second congressional district.

(23:31):
That's when they did some redistricting after the twenty twenty census.
Ashley Hinson won much more handily fifty four to forty
six percent than fifty seven to forty one percent. Now,
I'm not saying that that's not a stronghold. That's a
pretty good stronghold for an incumbent. Would a new Republican
have that same type of advantage if Ashley Henson leaves

(23:53):
that to go run for the Senate. I don't believe so.
Marionette Miller Meeks, who was running issues a Southeast Sile
representative when she first got elected in twenty twenty, she
won by six votes, one hundred and ninety six, nine
hundred and sixty four to one hundred and ninety six thousand,

(24:13):
nine hundred and fifty eight. Have you seen an election
get that close in recent memory? They did like four
or five recounts. He had almost four hundred thousand people
in that district vote in twenty twenty and Maryanntt Miller
Makes the Republican won by six votes over Democrat rede
Heart Mary Att. Miller Meekes then won fifty three to
forty seven percent against Christino Bohannon in twenty twenty two.

(24:37):
A rematch in twenty twenty four between Bohannan and Miller
Meeks less than eight hundred votes. They were both basically
virtually tied forty nine point nine to forty nine point eight.
That is not a landslide. That is a few people
decided to vote and a few people decided not to vote.

(24:59):
That to the outcome of that race. In that district
that was one year ago, less than a year ago.
It'll be two years ago by the time we actually
have another election. Assuming Marianett Miller Weeks runs for reelection
again and there's no I mean, maybe Christina Bohannon will
try a third time. Then you look at the third
congressional district. This is the one that zach Nun has.

(25:20):
This is the one that Sarah Trungarriot's going after zach
Nunn flirted with the idea of running for governor for Iowa.

Speaker 3 (25:26):
He won over.

Speaker 1 (25:27):
Incumbent Democrat Sidney Cindy Asney. And this is after Potawatamie
County got taken out of this district. He won fifty
point three to forty nine point seven percent. He won
by less than two thousand votes. He be defeated unknown
no non becom last year fifty one point eight to

(25:49):
forty eight percent. An unknown guy was that competitive in
that race in twenty twenty four, You could talk to
me about all three of those races could be not
just competitive, but you could talk me into the idea
that a Democrat could be the favorite going into election
day based on plenty of blue has occurred historically in

(26:12):
these pockets of Iowa. And then you throw in the
fact that johny Ernston's running for election in the Senate.
That could be a Zach Wallzer Josh Truck. I could
absolutely see winning that race against Ashley Henson or at
least making a competitive and I like Ashley Henson a lot,
but they have a head start on that race. And
then you have the governor's race, where Robson already has

(26:33):
a head start over either of the main guy's Secretary
of Agriculture Mike nag or Randy Finscher's leaving the fourth
congressional district. This could end up becoming very purple or
maybe even a little bit blue for Iowa if Republicans
do not take this seriously and get back to grassroots campaigning.
They haven't needed too lately, because guess what, there's been

(26:54):
terrible Democratic candidates for the better part of the last
six or seven years, and all of these races out
side of rob sand as the estate auditor. So if
you don't think this could happen, it absolutely could happen.

Speaker 2 (27:07):
You didn't answer my question. I'll state it in a
different way. This is when I say who's going to
run with a Democratic platform that Iowans will buy. What
are they selling that Iowans will buy? Now you start mentioning, Hey,
they voted for check Culvert, Tom Vilsack here in Nebraska,
Ben Nelson, Bob Carey. Sure none of these guys would

(27:28):
be real good Democrats. Certainly not those that the national
power brokers and the money would get behind today. That's
not the Democratic Party today. So what is the twenty
twenty What will be the twenty twenty six Democratic Party
selling that these Iowans who have delivered wins. I know,
like last night's Nebraska victory kind of sloppy, only one

(27:49):
x three it goes down as a w WE move on.
So a win is a win. What are the twenty
twenty six Democrats selling in Iowa that Iowans will It's.

Speaker 1 (28:01):
What they're not selling, And I'll explain that next. On
news radio eleven ten KFAB some pretty interesting conversation about
the Iowa side of our border because Joni Earnst kind
of sh shook up some national news coverage today by
basically telling the wrong confidant that she wasn't planning on
seeking reelection, and that got leaked to the media. She
was planning to make that announcement next week, and it

(28:22):
sounds like Ashley Henson, was currently representing the second Congressional
District of Iowa in Washington, is going to leave that
seat and try to go for that Senate spot. As
far as Joni's races were concerned, I forgot to include her.
She was elected in twenty fourteen and won by a
pretty wide margin all things considered in Iowa fifty two
to forty four percent back in twenty fourteen over Bruce Brayley,

(28:44):
who was a Democrat looking for the seat. But by
the time Jony went for reelection in twenty twenty, Teresa Greenfield,
one of the better Democratic candidates of the last handful
of years that Iowa was able to produce, made it
much more competitive. It was fifty one to forty five
between those two, and some other third party candidates got
some attention, but it wasn't trending awesome for Joni. And

(29:09):
there are legitimate guys like Zach Walls and Josh Trurick
who are lined up to battle each other for the
Democratic spot and will be I think a pretty attractive candidate,
Younger guys who are have a lot of money behind
him already, and certainly will have more money behind them
when it gets the general election season.

Speaker 3 (29:26):
We know where that money comes from.

Speaker 1 (29:28):
So you were asking, why would Iowa people just flip
to the Democrats. Well, if you listen to Rob sand
who is a Democrat, and I had him sit here
a couple of weeks ago. He was in the Omaha
area and he wanted to come say hi, and I
interviewed him on this show about what his campaign is
all about. And they're not talking policy right now. They're

(29:50):
talking about divisiveness. They're talking about the two party system
being You know, Lindsey James is an exception of this.
She is very much hardcore lefty and will tell you
about it. Most of these other Democrats, like Josh Turick,
like Zach Walls, like Sarah Troungarriot, like Rob sand Their

(30:10):
message is we're trying just to bring some people together.

Speaker 3 (30:14):
Iowa can do better. We have been.

Speaker 1 (30:17):
They're saying, embarrassed by the leadership in Iowa right now,
and I know that those were elected people, but there
just hasn't been good alternatives. We are presenting you good alternatives,
a new generation of Democratic leaders that are going to
listen to everybody from all sides and not make Iowa
all of a sudden this pawn in a presidential game,

(30:37):
because you know, Iowa has been a good example of
trump Ism, if you will. So there are obviously Iowa,
most of Iowa geographically is going to lean more Republican,
but there are enough independent thinking voters across Iowa, and
enough races that are going to be competitive or open
with no incumbent that Democrats have won not all that

(31:02):
long ago, that if that swells, and they're all working
kind of in tandem together as this group of new
fresh faces running for these seats, there is a bit
of momentum I think they could capture by next summer
before you have to start deciding. Okay, now, we're going
to have to talk about some policies, and some of
that stuff is not going to be popular with with

(31:24):
the Iowa people. And they know that Rob Sande's going
to talk about transgender people. He's not going to talk
about transgender you know, girls playing sports. You know, he's
not going to talk about abortion. He's going to try
to avoid as much of that as possible because he
knows how unpopular that's going to be with most of Iolands.

Speaker 3 (31:41):
And those are deal breaking stuff.

Speaker 1 (31:43):
So it'll be interesting to see what they say and
don't say why they build that swell of momentum, and
we'll keep an eye on it for you. More of
your Friday show on the Way on News Radio eleven
Tin Kfab. We have a lot of people in that
radius that listen in the state of Iowa. But Iowa
kind of had the big political news of the day
with Jony Ernst, the lad Senator not going to seek
reelection in twenty twenty six. Joins a bevy of people,

(32:04):
including Governor Kim Reynolds, in the state of Iowa that
make the state of Iowa kind of an interesting playground
of what ifs and what could end up happening and
could Democrats start to make a comeback in the state
of Iowa after it has been about as read as
it's ever been the last few years. Well, listening to
us was Representative of the second Congressional District of the
state of Nebraska, Don Bacon joining us. Representative Bacon, always

(32:27):
great to have you on the show.

Speaker 2 (32:30):
Thank you.

Speaker 4 (32:30):
I enjoyed listening to you. I was joining the discussions
on Iowa. I know all those folks have been great
to work with.

Speaker 1 (32:36):
Yeah, this is interesting and you're kind of in the
same boat right not seeking reelection in twenty twenty six
before we talk about exactly, because you can lend a
much more analytical standpoint from being there in Washington, d c.
As to what these new Democrats are going to be
campaigning on. But what impact do you anticipate for these

(32:57):
people that are not running for reelection and how that
affects this particular race as you kind of watch people
behind the scenes trying to line themselves up for your
seat as well.

Speaker 4 (33:08):
You know, open seats are always a little tougher even
if you're in a Republican leaning district. Feel for the
Republicans in my district, our district here, it's a dead
even you know, one of the few seats that are considered,
you know, fifty to fifty if you factor in the
presidential stuff for a D three, if you set factor
in a Congress it's like an R one. But bottom line,

(33:30):
it's very fifty to fifty. The biggest channels we're going
to have in this next election cycle. It's a midterm
year with the Republican in the White House, and historically,
going back a century, only twice have the party that's
in the White House picked up seats every other time
they've lost seats. And you know the reason is, you
know what Trump won because there's a lot of anger

(33:51):
towards Biden, and you know, he was pulling in the
thirty percent and Kamala Harris was one hundred percent in agreement.
And so people, you know, vote that they were rejected Biden.
They want with Trump. But now two years later, that
won't be there anymore, that push and it'll be a
little more angry towards the incumbent forever. Reason. You know,
there's a lot of different reasons that this happens. So

(34:14):
you know last cycle that when Trump was in and
it was mid term, we lost forty one seats. The
Republicans did, So that's gonna be the biggest challenges. It's
just the Republican energy is going to be down. Democrat
energy is going to be up. Another factor, and Republicans
like to focus on the first part. They don't want
to they ignore the second part. But right now, if
you pull what do you feel about the Democrat Party

(34:34):
and what do you feel about the Republican Party? The
Republicans are up significantly because the Democrats are hating themselves
right now because they don't think they're fighting hard enough,
they're not good enough to oppose Trump, and they're they're angry,
and they're any Problemcrats are up about four points, and
that's sort of the lines of the midterm year. So
I think those are some of the things that the

(34:56):
Republican's gonna have to counter and overcome. And I think
in Iowa and Nebraska the other challenges. When the economic
numbers came out last quarter, Iowa was number fifty. I
had the had about six percent decline in their economy
on an annual basis. Nebraska's number was the next worst.
And so even if it's not you know, the governor's

(35:17):
fault or the delegation's politics, it goes back to really,
you know, commodity prices and input prices on the agriculture.
So that's really what's driving our economies in Nebraska and
Iowa right now. That you can bet the Democrats going
to try to make that an issue, and I think
that's gonna be So that's gonna be maybe the added
challenge for Iowa friends there. But hopefully when the tax

(35:40):
these tax cuts remain in force, and I think I've
seeing a ground swell change real lifing that the tax
dole we passed was actually a pretty good bill, so
that we've got things that could run on. But we're
gonna we're gonna have our hands full of stex cycle
and it's gonna it's gonna be it's gonna pick one
hundred percent effort to do it.

Speaker 3 (35:58):
Yeah, Don Bacon, United State.

Speaker 1 (36:00):
It's representative representing the second Congressional District of Nebraska with us. Yeah,
interesting that you mentioned that, because that was kind of
you know, Scott was, you know, asking it's a good question.
Why would voters in the state of Iowa, who have
voted rhdder and redder as the time has gone on
the last decade or so, all of a sudden start
considering voting for Democrats. But the Democrats are going to

(36:22):
have this opportunity, especially because it's not even fatigue anymore.
It's just whoever's in power is at a disadvantage across
the board. Whenever a president is elected. It doesn't take
long for people to sour on a president, no matter
what party they're from, no matter what the policies are.
It just like you said, it's a very rare occurrence.
When a president actually can gain momentum while being in

(36:43):
office for a couple of years. So in the state
of Iowa, with as many seats that are I mean,
we know the second congressional district might be open with
Ashley Hinton running for the Senate. You have Randy Feastro
from the fourth congressional district. He's leaving that seat so
he can run for governor. The governor is going to
be leaving, not right for reelection. Jony Earns the Senator
not running for reelection. So you have all of these

(37:04):
open spaces. Do you think that Democrats could take advantage
by not talking the old liberal lefty talking points, knowing
that's not going to win in Iowa, and could they
lean into more of the Iowa economy not doing so
hot these days, leaning into leadership, failing in education and
mental health, stuff like that that could resonate while trying

(37:27):
to avoid some of the typical progressive tropes that have
doomed Democrats in recent elections.

Speaker 4 (37:33):
If they were smart, they would try to come off
as pragmatic centrist and try to win in the middle.
But the problem is if you're a primary those primary
voters they want to hear they want to get some
red meat, and I think that's going to be theyonddoing
as the Deocrats in the second district Nebraska. You know,
the top four candidates are all Bree Sanders types. But

(37:56):
I think sounds to me, I'm not similar to the
doorcrats in Iowa, but sounds like they're trying to run
a more a general election campaign versus a primary election campaign.
But if they want to win, yeah, they got to
focus on the economy, security. That's that's not on the
Democrats side to talk about that. They've gone soll us
on the social issues in recent cycles, and so if

(38:22):
they want to win, they got to They gotta have
the general election in mind. And I would say both
well for us in Nebraska and Nebraska too, that this
seems to be a race to the left on the
Democrats side, I think our Republican two candidates have done
a pretty good job knowing they got to win the middle.

Speaker 1 (38:39):
Well, it is something that we're going to be keeping
close tabs on, and of course we're going to have
to really unpack the second Congressional district in the Omaha
area because that is going to be a hotly contested
race and about as Purple A district as you possibly
can't have. Don Bacon's done a great job as a
representative of the district and I really appreciate you listening, sir,
and thanks so much for calling in with your analysis today.

Speaker 2 (39:00):
Thank you all right?

Speaker 1 (39:01):
How cool is that? Always great to be joined by
Representative Bacon? And also it's great to just talk politics
in a way that you know, we don't know what's
going to happen. It's like breaking down a football game, right,
you know, we have it's going to be twelve months
from now that we're finally getting into kind of the
sprint phase, uh, leading into these elections that we're talking about.

(39:21):
That's a long time between now and then. But the
possibility that Democrats could in one election, within basically a
sixteen month span, go from having absolutely no hope and
no control in the state of Iowa to figuring out
the puzzle in the right amount of ways. Plus have
a bunch of Republican incumbents leave their seats for either

(39:43):
other spots or because they don't want to be in
politics anymore, and they have a chance to come in,
swoop in, win some of these competitive races, and turn
Iowa back into a purple state, and maybe even more
blue than purple at a state representative level. It's a
fascinating dichotomy here that we're talking about right next door,

(40:05):
not unlike what could end up happening in the Omaha
area if that turns into a Democrat seat, and this
could absolutely change how we view Washington DC and the
control that the Republicans or Democrats would have an either chamber.

Speaker 3 (40:20):
It's quite fascinating.

Speaker 2 (40:22):
In November twenty twenty three, would you have guessed that
Trump would win reelection a year later?

Speaker 3 (40:29):
I don't know.

Speaker 2 (40:29):
I just say no, no, hardly anyone did. Right. Well,
It's just it's a lot can change. To your point,
a lot can change in the year. No one should
start getting out the red or blue crayons. Yet, let's
let the game see your way.

Speaker 1 (40:42):
To your point, I thought like DeSantis or Nikki Haley
was probably a better position to win the nominee. So
I agree on that front, a Republican was going to
win the general election. You could see that Biden was
already kind of struggling. I was on this show saying
look out for the Gavenussoms of the world, trying to
swoop in and maybe steal that spot before the general
election of twenty four.

Speaker 3 (41:01):
We know that that didn't happen. They didn't have a
fair primary and everything.

Speaker 1 (41:06):
But you're right, Donald Trump, I would never would have
predicted that he would have just steamrolled through every single
state essentially on his way to the nomination, and then
when the popular vote, let alone, you know, a pretty substantive,
a substantive victory in the electoral college in twenty twenty four.
We also had no idea Kamala Harris would be all
of a sudden a presidential candidate, So I don't know,

(41:29):
You're right, A lot can change. It's just quite fascinating
to see all of this, these musical chairs happening in
a state that has been pretty steady for the Republicans
for the better part of the last ten or twelve years,
and to see it all happening kind of real time here.

Speaker 3 (41:44):
So we'll see what happens.

Speaker 1 (41:46):
I've already put some feelers out to Joni Earnst and
her people, and Ashley Hinson and her people, and obviously
we just talked to Representative Bacon, and as that race
continues to heat up over the next several months, we
will talk to all of the players there and try
to figure out what's going to end up happening. But
very exciting stuff and it's good when things are competitive.

(42:08):
That makes everybody need to try harder, do better, and
that's going to end up being good for the people
of Iowa and the people of the Omaha District because
they are going to be served because it's not going
to be a blowout one way or the other.
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